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The Holmes Files - Mitch From the Ball Boys AFL Fantasy Podcast #PODPOD
1.5k Plays5 days ago
Two-time top 10 finisher and runner up in AFL Fantasy Classic in 2021 Holmesy continues his one-on-one interview series with successful members of the AFL Fantasy community.
On this episode, Holmesy sits down with Mitch from the Ball Boys AFL Fantasy Podcast who came 16th in 2024, on top of his last 3 seasons where he is yet to finish outside of the top 300. This episode is not to be missed as they sit down for a good old fashioned AFL Fantasy strategy discussion! Mitch is one of the brightest minds in the AFL Fantasy community so this episode is not one to be missed!
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Follow us on X:
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Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Mitch : @ballboysfantasy
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Transcript
Introduction and Special Guest
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmsey here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Friday, the 27th of December. Back for another episode of The Holmes Files. Got a real special guest on today. He's a member of the Ball Boys AFL Fantasy Podcast, one of the best fantasy podcasts going around.
00:00:40
Holmesy
Unfortunately, I couldn't get Luke on, so I'm stuck with you, Mitch. But thanks thanks for jumping on. I know it's been a goal of yours to get on one of these Home Files episodes, even though you've you've clearly outgrown us here, mate. But thank you for jumping on. How you been?
Mitch's AFL Fantasy Journey
00:00:54
Mitch Casey
Well, um I've been well, thank you for having me on. and it's ah it It does seem like the creme de la creme come on this ah this podcast. and If I'm trying to make a name for myself, I think this is the place to be. so i yeah It took a hat for me to get on here, but um but thankfully, I've made it on and hopefully we can we can talk some fantasy. i'm I'm itching to get back into it.
00:01:14
Holmesy
Yeah, look, we're we're not YouTubers here, aren although Dossie wanted us to get that going, but um I'm sitting here staring at you. You've got your hat on. You're very you're very smug, I can say. So quickly talk us through. I mean, you you've had very, very successful seasons, but this was the first one where you've actually got up there and you've got that illustrious hat. So talk us through how you're feeling after having it all come together finally to be, you know, right up that pointy end.
00:01:40
Mitch Casey
Yeah, look, I think um I've sort of had a decent um last three seasons. I think there was a stat going around um from Jaden that I think over the last three seasons, and again, I going pick it and choose my stats here, but I think I was third in terms of the aggregate rank over the last three years, two years before last year.
00:01:59
Mitch Casey
came close, I think I was 123 the year before I started the podcast. And then the first year of the podcast was 272nd or something like that. um So
Fantasy Projections and Strategy
00:02:10
Mitch Casey
it was close but didn't quite get down or knock the door down. and And it was always that back half of the season for me that sort of let me down.
00:02:17
Mitch Casey
I think coming out of in 2022 came out of the buys, like 24th or something like that, and then managed to choke the hat away. So that was a ah learning experience. And then the year after that, I i was i was coming from a further way back in.
00:02:33
Mitch Casey
um charged in sort of top 300 after the buys but then couldn't just sort of stop the climb after that sort of round 16-17 sort of range. So this year, look, it got up as high as ah I've ever been. I think the highest I got there was was was fourth at one point. I think it was just, again, just after the buys. um Ended up finishing at 16th, took a few punts. Some trades I do regret but um look it just sort of all came together so I think I think I've got a good sort of um ah protocol or I guess strategy for the first sort of two-thirds of the season I still think I've got a ways to go in perfecting that last third um but yeah no it's it's good to see that the last three years the the process seems to be working at least at least putting me in the the realm of of being able to to fight for that pointy end in the heart and
00:03:21
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:03:25
Mitch Casey
Last year, I sort of tricked myself to think I was competing for the car, um but start to still get the number 16 on my head.
00:03:32
Holmesy
Mate, we are we are all about cherry picking stats here at the Pod Pod. I mean, Stado has five hats, but they're all four of them for from Real Dream Team back in the 1990s. And then I mean, if you only take my 2018, 2021 stats, five and a half average rank.
00:03:47
Holmesy
So you cherry pick away that.
00:03:48
Mitch Casey
you yeah
00:03:50
Holmesy
In all honesty, mate, what like it's not easy doing a podcast
Ball Boys Podcast Evolution
00:03:54
Holmesy
and the fact that you put out content each and every week, everyone knows exactly where your head's at and what you're doing. um I've got huge respect for you in that regard. So that's the reason I wanted to wanted to get you on because you've got a fantastic fantasy mind. Can you just give us a little bit of an insight first? So how did the ball boys come about? So you've given us your fantasy background, but just talk us through the ball boys and how that got started and and the sort of processes there because you do it differently to a lot of us on the podcast and it's good just to get a bit of bit of an insight.
00:04:25
Mitch Casey
Yeah, so i um i was I was podcasting before Fantasy 40. The Ball Boys started as ah as a fantasy basketball podcast. That's sort of my bread and butter um back in the day. The the podcast itself started in 2020 in COVID as we were all you know bored out of our minds and and not being able to work too much. So me and a group of mates just um I think when the bubble started in the the NBA, we sort of got together. We had plenty of time on our hands and and started a podcast then and um drifted into the fantasy basketball space where we had a league that was going since 2011. So um just started talking a bunch of crap over there and it eventually took off. Some people actually started to listen to. A lot of people in that initial group sort of faded out and, and but I kept going.
00:05:11
Mitch Casey
um Just with my work schedule, I had a bit more flexibility than than a lot of the others, so I was doing the Ball Boys Fantasy Basel Podcast since 2021, and then met my partner, um who's a big Richmond fan, the family's a big Richmond fan, and met Luke, who of ah people who don't know is um my partner's ah brother. so um And then just in the last few years, we we moved into the house just opposite, opposite then. So really close together, makes it super easy to to get together, watch a lot of footy, talk a lot of crap and um convinced him that, Hey, let's, let's podcast and and talk about fantasy footy because I had come off a semi successful season. We we sort of rode
Data-Driven Insights in AFL Fantasy
00:05:56
Mitch Casey
the highs and lows that year before we started in 2020.
00:05:59
Mitch Casey
too and thought that I had something to offer coming coming from the but basketball space like it was all YouTube and at the time um it's become a bit more popular now these days but at the time there was no real podcast going on with a visual um medium as well so wanted to to spice it up a little bit there so but funnily enough a lot of my lot of my experience is in draft like so fantasy basketball is all draft um so but wanted to give the classic a go because that's sort of the more popular format, at least for content creation.
00:06:30
Mitch Casey
um But yeah, it's got together. I think one of the things that we wanted to really try and do is is be a podcast. that's That's fun, but also like insightful, something that's a bit more serious. um And again, yeah, getting getting two people in the same room where a lot of the other podcasts out there, you you sort of have people, different different parts of the country, but the fact that we were so close together and it was so easy to do, get us in the same room. And I think the, um the chemistry sort of worked because um obviously we see each other a lot. So we've got a got a good sort of way to go back and forth. Well, hopefully it comes across on screen and on on the microphone.
00:07:07
Holmesy
Yeah, it's it's definitely what what I noticed when you guys first came in. You had that good mix of um being able to shit talk and banter, but also clearly knowing what you what you're talking about. And that's what I wanted to just quickly, a little bit off the cuff, but just sort of deep dive a little bit, coming across from the basketball background where a lot of that's projections and stuff. How do you go about doing a lot of your projections for AFL fantasy? because it's It's pretty tough and you're pretty good at it. um So do you have a bit of a stats background or it's just all you've sort of picked up throughout the years with the basketball? How do you go about that?
00:07:41
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I guess I am. I don't know if analytical is the right way, to but up but I'm pretty stats orientated when it comes to to thinking about um projections and things like that. the The basketball and seeing how it's done over there is a little bit different to this, um where sort of ah one one of the other Aussie legends out there, Josh Lloyd, he's um in his basketball monster sort of taken a lot from what he does. And he does like every single projection for every single player across the competition.
00:08:08
Mitch Casey
um and all their minutes and everything like that. I don't think it works quite that way in footy, um especially in a points format. um But for me, it's just about looking at, okay, what has the player done in the role that I project them to play? Do I have any evidence to suggest that?
00:08:25
Mitch Casey
um I always am and big in like sample size. So if if you've got a small sample size of someone doing something, not being too tempted to just straight up extrapolate that to something that a lot of us can fall into the, you know, looking at something a bit too optimistically.
00:08:42
Mitch Casey
or potentially looking at a bit too pessimistically as well. So sample size is a big thing for me. um And a lot of this, the early stuff that I sort of got was was from, you know, the goat Selby and sort of seeing how he goes about it um and trying to to pick and choose where where he he was successful and um learn a lot from his season guide. So shout out to Amara's magic. So a lot of it was sort of based on that.
00:09:07
Mitch Casey
um I try to be as unbiased as I possibly can, um not be afraid to sort of go against the grain when other people are maybe thinking something else, but try to really dissect each player one at a time, even if the consensus seems obvious, trying to make sure you you do your research, put in the time um to to look at what they've done in certain positions, certain roles. So I don't know, I don't know if there's like a cheat code or anything like that, but yeah, it it really is just trying to dissect what the players going to be doing or what I expect them to be doing in the upcoming season and and then sort of give myself a, I like to give myself a low range of outcomes and then a high range. So if everything comes together, could it be this? If it's like worst case scenario, could it be this? And and that can kind of as close we get to the season or the more data you get, you can kind of reduce that, that range to get a bit more accurate, but
00:10:00
Mitch Casey
Yeah, thats that's sort of my process I guess going through projecting.
00:10:05
Holmesy
Yeah, that that's that's awesome, mate. I mean, it's the podcasting scene, right? there's There's all these podcasts and we're all guilty of it. There's the the echo chamber where we all listen to them all and we think we're having these original ideas, but someone else has said it and then we all just kind of echo the same thought. So it is good to have a a bit of a breath of fresh air. I know you you do go about it a little bit differently, but once again, like I said, you know you're not afraid to put those opinions out there. and And once they're out there, then they're out there and all the other podcasts are talking talking about it. so Yeah, super impressive with how you went about it last year and and the the previous year. So let's kind of dive into last year. So 2024, building your starting squad. you Once you hit those mid-season buyers, you were right up at the pointy end already. So clearly you set up really well with the opening round buyers.
Player Projections and Role Clarity
00:10:53
Holmesy
What was your strategy going in last year and in sort of building that starting squad and what can we take away from that into this year?
00:11:00
Mitch Casey
Yeah, it's interesting because, and again, like you, I'm assuming like you, but I'm an avid consumer of content as well. Like I listen to basically every single podcast is out there, some episodes twice if I think there's something to learn. So Um, even as listening to like the previous, you know, the winner and and and runner up on the, the homes files, I think a lot of the takeaways were they didn't worry too much about the early buys, which I thought was, was interesting. Or at least that seems like that's the, um, the takeaway some people are making, but I, I was very much pretty keen on making sure I had one premium at most on those early bar rounds.
00:11:37
Mitch Casey
um So each round, so for example, I had a Locky Whitfield, who I think was the round three by, I had um Isaac Heaney, who I think was the round five, and I had Max Gorn, who was around six, but I didn't have any other premiums on those lines um to to make it more challenging for myself. I mean, you had you had the Zach Williams, you had, you know, some of the cheaper guys um that were there. I started with a Brody Grundy, but traded him after the first round. so My strategy was on each of those bar rounds, I wanted at most one premium. And each of those premiums, I think you could argue, had value ah associated with them. So it didn't start with the Tom Green, um didn't start with an Errol Goulden.
00:12:20
Mitch Casey
um those players that I did not see as value, um didn't want to start with them. Lucky Whitfield was a guy who I sort of tossed and turned about and obviously Isaac Heaney was just as a result of that, that preseason, you kind of saw, okay, well, he's finally going to get a go in the midfield. um So I thought there was some good value there. Max Korn, I was hot on from the very beginning.
00:12:41
Mitch Casey
um sort of thought he was a must-start player so they also had their value but I still was very conscious of not going too many players in those um early bar rounds because I wanted to get out ahead and I thought a lot of the times if there's a player you think that you like A lot of times there's someone else who is, if not very, very close, might be even better that didn't have that opening round. So, um, it was just a matter of making sure that my team was set up from that point. And only if there was no other option, do I get a player who's got the early bar around. So yeah, that was sort of my strategy.
00:13:18
Holmesy
And now that you've lived through it and we're looking for 2025, do you think that strategy holds up or do you think there's more of a case? Like as Chris said, he started Tom Green for the hot run and then traded off him. Obviously it has to go right with no forced injuries, but do you think you'll deploy the similar tactics or do you think we can be a little bit more lax with it knowing that it is a bit risky but people have done it?
00:13:42
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I think um in terms of like process over results, I think the process that I went through, I would probably back it again. We did discuss Luke and I think Luke was one of the first people to actually suggest this strategy. um The Tom Green thing when you have someone who has West Coast and North Melbourne, the first two games and then you can trade them off. That was good in theory um and obviously worked great for Chris, but I think There's, there's so many things that can happen. We've always, like so many people say, a week's a long time and in AFL fantasy. Well, three or four weeks is an extremely long time. So many things can happen in that time. um And I think I'd rather be messing around with a lot of my mid prices, getting my team structure sorted out at that point than
00:14:26
Mitch Casey
sideways in premiums. I think you can do it in that time of the year, but it does require the rest of your team to be close to perfect in terms of having those must have guys. Um, and one of the things I'm big on is like trying to be humble enough to not think that I'm going to nail it. Like going into that starting season, that starting team, knowing I'm going to stuff it up. Like um I started a camera Kenzie, um, like that was a terrible pick. So, um, knowing that I'm not going to get it right.
00:14:56
Mitch Casey
um So if I put something in my team that I know I'm going to have to fix up at a certain round. To me, that's like, it's almost a bit arrogant to think that I'm going to nail everything else and I'm going to have all this luxury to trade this other guy. Um, so I, I am of the mindset that try to give yourself as little things
Rookie Analysis and Strategy
00:15:15
Mitch Casey
to do and you'll be better able to handle any chaos that comes your way. So I think I'd probably go the same kind of strategy again personally, but who's to say it's the right one at the end of the day? Like maybe, maybe you do get that luxury. Um, but I think more often than not something's going to come up.
00:15:32
Holmesy
Yeah, and I think the the early season buyers this year are are different because we have the that round with the four teams on the buy, which we didn't have last year.
00:15:40
Mitch Casey
Yes.
00:15:41
Holmesy
um So if you start too many of those guys and all of a sudden you've got some forced trades or you have some players that you do need to trade out, then all of a sudden you might be chasing your tail. So I do like that.
00:15:50
Holmesy
I know Minnie Monk was a big, when he talks about his strategy, he talks about you know starting players at at particular price points, knowing that, hey, they might not work out. But at the same time, because they're at that price point, you have the ability to pivot off to the guy that does pop that we don't see because they always come out of the woodworks.
00:16:07
Holmesy
There's always, you know, I think two years ago, it was a wheel setter field. You know, there's always these players that always fly under the radar during the preseason that no one picks. And if you don't have the ability to get to them, then that's when you're in a bit of trouble.
00:16:19
Holmesy
So.
00:16:20
Mitch Casey
yeah Yeah, I think that structure is super important.
00:16:21
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:16:23
Mitch Casey
you know like Last year, it was Nick Martin, Matt Crouch, Ollie Wines, like that price point, there were so many guys. Now, I'm not a believer you start all of them because if you start all of them, then you know two of the three don't work out or where do you go, but I think you needed to start with one of them.
00:16:41
Mitch Casey
I started with Olly Wines, but quickly moved over to a Matt Crouch and just having that structure in place of going, okay, I'm pretty sure one of these guys is going to work. So I want to go somewhere. And then it's a much easier move to go sideways to those players, to the guy who does pop. So I do think that's something that we we should be taking into account when it comes to our structure.
00:17:01
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. And we are going to spend majority of this podcast going through 2025. I've done a lot of recapping over the successful seasons, but can you just give us, let's just quickly on 2024 before we move on, what were some of the key learnings from that year that made you so successful and and how are we going to plan to use those moving forward into 2025?
00:17:24
Mitch Casey
I think the thing that made it more successful with me last year than the previous years was really nailing the the runs of certain players, really getting on top of and projecting forward the good matchups that they're going to have.
00:17:38
Mitch Casey
um forgiving some players that had bad games because they came up against tough matchups. um For example, like I think Bontz and Pele early in the year was was frustrating a lot of people. um yeah I think there was a game where he scored like a 50 or a 60 early um and a lot of people were jaded by that and the people who didn't have Bontz weren't willing to jump onto him but he came up against Richmond. I traded him in, he
Challenges and Overcoming Them
00:18:03
Mitch Casey
scored a 120 straight away ah There's a few examples of that that I sort of just were able to to capitalize on players who had good runs coming up were cheap for whatever reason. Well, most of the time, the reason was they had a tough run to that point, but then we're coming up into a ah run that opened up. So um I think that's probably the biggest thing in terms of you can get your underpriced guys, but trying to get that immediate
00:18:30
Mitch Casey
sugar hit, which I think Stado likes to call it, um where you get that instant payoff. Maybe it's not that week, but maybe over the next two or three weeks, you've got some positive matchups coming up. um Nick Dackel was another one that I nailed the the timing in terms of getting home on him at the right time. I think it was the Anzac game or something like that, where I traded him in and we started a run up on 20 pluses. So I think We all, a lot of us know the good players, but it's also just getting them at the right time, which I think can get you that one week ahead. A lot of people have talked about this, but being a week ahead and not waiting for the big score, but projecting it a week early, I think is the most surefire way ah to to get yourself ahead of the pack.
00:19:17
Holmesy
Yeah, it's definitely something I need to get better at. It's the way the game's evolved over the last few years, especially with the rolling lockouts. Like back in the day, it used to be you're waiting to get the player at the perfect time when they've dropped the most amount of cash so that you've got them for the rest of the season, whereas Now with so many trades, you know Chris had 24 premiums last year. It's all about getting these players in for that quick run. It might be three, four, five weeks, whatever it is, and then being willing to trade off them to get onto the next guy. It's it's no longer a case of you getting these premiums for the year. It's it's all about the runs because the comp's so close these days.
00:19:52
Mitch Casey
Yeah.
00:19:52
Holmesy
how do you How do you go about doing the projecting the runs? Are you using DFS? Do you have your own sort of strategy? Because all the all the podcasts will say, you know, oh they've got Eagles coming up this week. It's ah it's a good matchup. But for defenders, for example, defenders against West Coast were no good because the ball just wasn't wasn't down there. So how how are you going about that?
00:20:11
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I mean, I use I use DFS Australia, I think it's one of the best websites out there. um At the start of the season, I go a little bit more. I test gut feel, because the data isn't, there's not as much, you know, I talked about sample size earlier, like, for example, um I'm very confident that Richmond is going to be an extremely easy matchup this year for most positions, maybe not defenders, um but for most positions, they're going to be very, very easy. So say the first couple of games, like it doesn't ah quite the same on DFS, like I'm not gonna be dissuaded by the fact that they might be a neutral matchup on DFS because I'm pretty confident that they're gonna be a team that people can fill their boots up on. um so So using, especially early in the season, that that first third, first half of the year, um you know, using a bit more of that eye test, the more data you start to get, the more you can start to rely on those websites, rely on those sort of stats.
00:21:08
Mitch Casey
um But yeah, I don't think there's any secret behind it in terms of like a lot of it's out there. Um, but a lot of it comes bit down to like being willing to pull the trigger, like not ignoring, but being willing to, if if a guy's going to average 110 for the season.
00:21:25
Mitch Casey
and they've started the season averaging 80, well, that means if there's nothing different with their role, like they're not injured or anything else, that means if they've averaged 80 to that point, that they're probably going to average 120, 125 after that point, because if they're still what you believe to be 110 player, um not being scared by the fact that they've averaged poorly to that point, being willing to go, okay, well, this is actually a good thing. They're actually going to go on a big run here um because I still see them as 110 averaging player.
00:21:55
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, absolutely, absolutely spot on. Let's let's jump into 2025 now. So we're going to do a deep dive with the caveat that it is still December. We still have limited limited data on what new roles for players are going to be. There's always going to be players coming out of the woodworks, but I'm sure you've already had a bit of a bit of a play with your team and having a bit of a look of how we're structuring up. So we're going to start, we're going to go defence and we're going to make our way through. So at the moment, the defenders, how are you seeing as a whole the defensive line and how are you looking to sort of structure up?
00:22:27
Mitch Casey
So again, this is that echo chamber from a lot of other places that I've heard, but defense to me is probably the hardest place to form a confident projection in. um I see a lot of those top end guys losing value. um So for example, like a Harry Sheasel and a Sam Flanders.
00:22:48
Mitch Casey
are two examples of where they they shown in like that halfback role, like to start the season, Sheezel was averaging 125 for the first seven rounds, moved into that forward mid-roll and didn't do as well. Flanner's the same sort of a thing. um You got Zorko, who's a million years old. um Nick Martin, kind of similar to those Sheezel and Flanner's sort of type, his role was sort of changing. Lockie Whitfield um was one of the best picks last year.
00:23:14
Mitch Casey
But prior to last year, everyone was saying that he's injury prone. He's never come close to 112 average before. So there's a lot of players in there that I think have scoped to regress. So for me, I don't see myself starting any of those top guys. um So I think we're going to have to get a bit creative in in getting some some cheaper dudes in there. A lot of the the popular cheaper players also have the early round buys, especially that round three with Callum Mills and um ah Kitty Coleman. So The trick is going to be finding players that have a little bit of value and don't have the early bar around. so
00:23:51
Mitch Casey
I guess that's the trick. Like, do you do you see like ah a Sinclair or a Wangany Miller, those Saints boys with a bit of upside? Are there some other players? um some play A player that I like that's not being talked about a lot is Bailey Dale. I think there's some upside to him. He had a couple of vest ah affected scores early last year. Like, what do you believe in Colby McCurcher? He had ah an injured game in his score as well. I know you talked about him in your your most recent podcast, but um someone like a Trent Rivers who had a role change last year as well, ah guys that I'm looking at, all these kind of players don't have that early buy around. Jaden Short is another player whose average mid-90s before. So these types of players that are maybe a step behind, that the big dogs in defence, but have a potential to maybe close that gap are the guys that I'd be wanting to start a lot, a lot in my in my team. I don't see you myself starting any of Whitfield, Zorko, Sheezel, Flanders, Nick Martin, Nick Newman. I think I'm going to fade most of those players, but
00:24:47
Mitch Casey
um That's sort of my only thoughts. What what are what are your thoughts on the defense because it is tricky.
00:24:52
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I'm in the same boat. It's it's hard to pay up for for a lot of those top-end guys. But I suppose the interesting thing is, if we are going these underpriced, undervalued guys, what do we need them to get to? Because years years gone by, if they could hit in 1995, then that was enough. But I think what, Jack Sinclair was the seventh or eighth defender and he was averaging 102. Has the game changed now where these distributors are half back?
00:25:19
Holmesy
You know, we we need the top defenders to be going 100 plus. And if you are getting, you know, a Trent Rivers, for example, let's say you pay, what do we pay for him? Mid 80s at the moment. And he goes 90, 92. Is that enough? it's It's probably not. But then do the defenders come back? I'm not too sure. it's It is very, very tricky. and ah Mills and Coleman aren't given either, like Mills gets thrown around all the time. Coleman did his ACL in round zero, so who knows? Is he even back for for round zero, round one? they They're coming off a premiership. Zorko's just gone all Australian in a premiership team in that role. Do they make sure he's he's right to go and and give him some time? I i think the defence is is's going to be one of the more interesting lines this year.
00:26:03
Holmesy
Everyone's going to have the same forward line and then the rest is up up for grabs. So I don't think it's going to be as vanilla this year is what a lot of podcasts and people are saying.
00:26:12
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I think so. And I think this is where, this is where it'll separate the boys from the men, you know, like, are you, you know, do you have the balls to go against some of these guys who just put up 110 plus, you know, seasons. And I get your point in terms of like the defense, obviously, it seems like it's a higher bar than it has been in previous years. But then you've got to also go, okay, well, is that going to repeat this season? Because that was last year.
00:26:36
Mitch Casey
do we see Zorko doing what he did? Do we see um Sam Flanders and those sort of guys? Like I pose a question to the coach's panel guys in terms of how many people do we think are gonna average 110 the defenders versus the mids. Last year we had like one mid average, 110 passing like three defenders. I could easily see that being zero defenders this year. um And for, you know, Jack Sinclair,
00:27:03
Mitch Casey
who averaged 102 and he was the seventh, he might average the exact same and be the fourth highest defender this year. So just because a player's average doesn't change doesn't mean that their hierarchy in the the list doesn't change because obviously a year's a long time in AFL fantasy. Last year we were all drafting Tim English as the number one pick and draft and he averaged 120, averaged 105 this year. So um just keeping that in mind. So even if a player doesn't go up to 105, 110 plus. If they can just get a little bit closer, I still think that's worthwhile because like you mentioned before, not a lot of these players are going to be keeping the whole way through. I think last year I kept Locky Whitfield as the only premium for the entire season. The only other players I had with my team were Max Heath and Zach Reed. So every other player I traded at one point. So I don't think we need to overthink, is this player a keeper? Is it a top six?
00:28:02
Mitch Casey
Does he have value?
AFL Fantasy Success Strategies
00:28:03
Mitch Casey
Is it someone that I can at least hold onto to the buys? They're not gonna completely bottom out. um Then yeah, I think that's good enough.
00:28:11
Holmesy
Yeah, that is a great point. Just circling back to Jack Sinclair. Can I just get your thoughts on Jack Sinclair? Because it seems at the moment that he is the popular consensus D1 that might potentially have a little bit of value. What's your what's your thoughts on Jack Sinclair? I mean, we're all predicting, at least at the moment, that Jack McRae is going to go there and he's goingnna he's going to play in midfield. And if we're projecting him to go up, then he's getting a little bit more of the the pie. You've got Roland Marshall who plays as almost that sort of fourth midfielder at times.
00:28:41
Holmesy
Jack Steele does what he does if we're projecting Phillip Huda come on board as well, Nasiah, to keep doing what he's doing. Can we really see that much growth in a Jack Sinclair?
00:28:51
Mitch Casey
I don't think there's much growth there, but I also think he's probably one of the safer guys to hold his rank and hold his average. so he's He's one of those players that scores well in a lot of different positions. so The start I've got here that I've done my research on, he averaged 101.6 in games where he had less than 30% CVAs, and he averaged 101.3 in games with 30% or more CVAs. He's playing midfield, he averaged 102. He's playing defense, he averages 101.5.
00:29:17
Mitch Casey
So he's pretty steady no matter where he is. Now, the argument might be that there's a lot of players coming in that might just, the market share might be just less. um And Saints were already one of the highest scoring fantasy teams out there. um So there's potential for him to maybe drop back a little bit, but I still think he's fairly safe. He's got a good mid season buy as well.
00:29:40
Mitch Casey
Obviously no early season buy. So I can see the appeal, but I don't think there's value. I think he's more just a guy that people are happy to ah pretty confident he's going to do what he's priced at. And if that's all you're searching for, then I think of those top names, he might be the safest guy. I think I'm looking for a bit more upside personally, but I can see the appeal.
00:30:03
Holmesy
So just knowing that it's December at the moment, can you just give us a quick rundown of your structure in terms of premiums under price, premiums mid prices and rookies?
00:30:14
Mitch Casey
Yeah. So at the moment I've got what I would call three premiums in my defense, two mid prices and a rookie. So two mid prices being Callum Mills and Caden Coleman are the two guys that are sitting there. The rookie, I've got Toby Trevalgia again. I don't know. I'm not a rookie expert. Yeah. And then, and then three premiums, um, uh, Jayden Shaw, it'll be considering him a premium. I think I am.
00:30:42
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, under price premium or what you're hoping for anyway, yeah.
00:30:44
Mitch Casey
Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, three premiums is how I'm sort of structured up, but I've got no one in price over a million dollars.
00:30:52
Holmesy
Yeah. Jaden shorts. Jaden shorts are really interesting one. I'm a, I'm a big market share guy. And ah as much as we project that he he can get back to being that mid nineties guy, I think it's going to be so tough for these Richmond players to to score in that system with just the total team fantasy points. They're going to score. Toronto is another one, which we'll we'll get to. I i really liked Toronto, but his market share was already up there with some of the good midfielders in the comp. They're just going to get smacked.
00:31:18
Mitch Casey
Yeah, we're going to suck. Absolutely. Like there's no way around it. But what I will say is you've got um Shay Bolton, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker,
00:31:29
Mitch Casey
I think I heard somewhere that five of the top 11 scorers for Richmond are gone. um And you're not replacing them with established players. you're You're replacing them with rookies. So even if they had a good market share before, I think they're going to have an outstanding market share this season. Now that might only still equate to toward a mid 90s average for Jaden Short, but I think that's enough. um And
00:31:56
Mitch Casey
As a Richmond fan, I think we've we've been a team that's always wanted to sort of play the right way, play the the the fast game. But I think the talent we have there now, doesn't it doesn't bode for that. like We're going to absolutely get destroyed.
00:32:12
Mitch Casey
from the get go if we start doing that. So would not surprise me if Richmond plays a little bit more conservatively just because they have to, just because they don't want to get smashed by 100 points. um And I think that that could play into the hands of someone like Jayden Short. So just because Richmond hasn't played that way in the past,
00:32:29
Mitch Casey
It's a totally different team now. um So I can definitely see them trying to possess the ball a little bit more, especially in that back line, like what we've seen North Melbourne do in the past, just so they don't get destroyed by a hundred points every week. So I wouldn't count that out from being a possibility.
00:32:46
Holmesy
Yeah, no, he's in my side. It's just it's just something to to talk about.
00:32:51
Mitch Casey
Yeah.
00:32:51
Holmesy
Let's go into the into the midfield now. So early thoughts, how are we looking in the midfield?
00:32:57
Mitch Casey
The midfield is interesting this year. I think um a lot of talk about like the Fords having a lot of value. I think there's so much value in the midfield. It's almost like an embarrassment of riches. there's There's too many guys that to like almost even fit in to my side. At the moment, there's so many guys I think have good upside um you know at at a fair price. like You talk about a Clayton Oliver who prior to last year it was just 110 every single season. so Some of these guys I think it's hard to fit them all in, in a way. Plus we've got ah what's supposed to be one of the best midfield rookie crops as far as fantasy goes in a long time. So I think the midfield, there's so many different ways, like most years, there's so many different ways you can go. um This is where I don't think I can make an argument to fit anyone in who has an early season buy because
00:33:48
Mitch Casey
In my opinion, there's just another player out there who's just as good that doesn't have another season by. Now that might be a controversial take with someone like Tom Green being ah a super popular player. But i see I see lots of value in a lot of different other players. A lot of players who price under 100, that could go 110. And those are the kind of players that I start with. What what are your thoughts?
00:34:12
Holmesy
Yeah, well, I mean, there's definitely going to be value, right, in terms of if Adam Treloar was the only midfielder that went 110, and we know traditionally, midfielders go above 110, then clearly there's inbuilt value there.
00:34:25
Holmesy
It's just gonna be very interesting to see whether or not this year was an outlier year, where the midfielders just didn't score as well, or whether there has been a bit of a tactical change in the AFL, where they've gone away from a lot more stoppage heavy midfielders being able to score to the you know the defenders running off half back. So that's gonna be something to kind of monitor um at the start of the year. But yeah, that's there is heaps of value, but at the same time, you can kind of poke holes, I believe, in ah in a lot of the value. like You know, we'll throw some names out there. Andrew Brayshaw is clearly down from what he's done in the past. But is that now a market share issue with Sarong and Hayden Young taking a lot more ball in the way they want to play? You've got Jordan Dawson, who we saw we saw shift out of the midfield a little bit last year when they sort of switched things up.
00:35:12
Holmesy
um you know Tom Green I think is going to be very good but you're right he's got an he's got an early season bye you've got Toronto who you spoke about um he's going to be the main guy at Richmond but his scores with and without Hopper are very very different Clayton Oliver, Petrarca, you know, you've got names like Will Day, Docherty, Cherrara. There are lots of names, but I think there's a lot of holes that can be poked in you a lot of them. So are you looking at the moment to start three of these rookies in in the midfield or do you think because we're spending down in the forward line, we have to spend our cash somewhere and um maybe it's only the two and maybe ah a mid-pricer like an Isaac Cumming or a James Peatling?
00:35:52
Mitch Casey
At the moment I've got the three. I've got five rookie mids that are all 300k or above on my team and i and I don't even have Lawler. So I think there's a lot of good rookies in the midfield this year. um And I'm a big believer when you start your team with the rookies, it's like you you you want to build your team from the ground up.
00:36:14
Mitch Casey
the rookies define your structure. So I think there's, there's too many good rookies like you, Jagger Smith, you Levi aro Ashcroft, Sid Draper, Josh Smiley, Xavier Lindsay, Lola as well, who I said is not on my team, but he was the number one overall pick are all players who i expect to be there and again i'm not a rookie expert so you know it could come these preseason games and some of them are crap and we've we've got to move them on but at this stage i've got three i don't usually like to go too heavy and and only start with the two because
00:36:44
Mitch Casey
You just, you think of these rookies, like they're theyre priced so cheap, like some of the price at twenties, thirties. And if they go 70, like there's 40 to 50 points of value there. Um, so a lot of the times we can go to mid price crazy. Um, so I still think if you've got some, some good rookies there that they they need to be on your field, especially with the early buys, um, and the best 18, if they have a crap week, their score just drops off. So, um, uh, I think three is usually the sweet spot for me. I've flirted with some teams where I've had four um and maybe taking a rookie off either the forward or defense line, but I think with the other value there, I think three is usually, the the past few years, usually it's three, but I'm open to other other structures.
00:37:35
Holmesy
Yeah, it's going to be really, really interesting with these rookies because you're right, according to all the experts, we've got one of the best draft crops coming through. You look at their fantasy numbers, they're through the roof, but it doesn't mean they're going to walk straight into midfield roles in the AFL or get that half-back role like we've seen for Daikos and Szezel to start their careers in. And what we do know about first-year players is they do get rests, so they're they're prone to rest. We saw it with Harley Reid last year.
00:38:00
Holmesy
ah There's the red vest that we've got to deal with as well and all it takes is one of these red vest games like we saw with Sanders, like we saw with McCurcher. As soon as that happens, it stunts their, stunts their cash and you're in a bit of trouble. So if you do start too heavy, the three or four, then maybe you find yourself in trouble considering it's only three rounds of best 18 this year. but Yeah, it's, it's very interesting to see like a Jagger Smith, for example, for Carlton, like we see him as being one of the best fantasy prospects, but do we, do we honestly think he's going to get a midfield role in that Carlton side pushing for a premiership? It's outside of Ollie Hollands. They haven't really given their first round draft picks much of a go. We know he's, we we're assuming that he's different, but what's to say he doesn't get more of a graveyard half forward forward pocket role to start the AFL and, and he's not exactly a ah big scorer.
00:38:48
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I mean 100%, but at the end of the day though, like we all have to deal with the same rookies. Like it's, I don't necessarily think that this is going to be the the area that makes or breaks your team. So, you know, you play the cards, the cards you dealt, you move on. Like you say some of these guys get rest or get the red vest, like someone like a James Peatling, he got like a red vest five times last year.
00:39:11
Mitch Casey
but he's 300K more. Now I'm not saying he's gonna get that this year. He's in a different team. Obviously they've they've given him a contract. But that that risk still applies to players that are just more expensive.
00:39:22
Mitch Casey
And if they're cheaper, like these rookies obviously are, that risk is less based on how much you paid for them and you just move someone else onto the bench. And that's why
Player Roles and Accurate Projections
00:39:31
Mitch Casey
I'm a big believer in you pay out for the rookies on your bench as well.
00:39:33
Mitch Casey
Like you don't just go super cheap because every chance that guys you have on your field, maybe they do get the the red vessel. Maybe they do get a week off or something like that. So then you've got someone on your bench who's not that much of a downgrade that you can just put on for a week or so.
00:39:45
Mitch Casey
So that's sort of my thought.
00:39:47
Holmesy
Yeah, and you you also have the ability to trade down as well if they've got some cash on their heads. Yeah, I agree there.
00:39:52
Mitch Casey
Yeah.
00:39:53
Holmesy
Who are some of the, let's go, some of the bigger dog midfielders that you're looking at this year to start? I've already mentioned a Brayshore, Toronto, you've mentioned Green. Is there anyone else that you're sort of looking at that no one's really talking about?
00:40:06
Mitch Casey
ah ah Not that no one's really talking about. I think i think that a lot of people are all over, like Connor Rosie is someone that I like. um sort of. ah He's been in and out of my team. um Someone like a Petrarca. I've liked the look of although Melbourne I'm very interested to see in the preseason just in general what they're going to do. They're sort of the guys. ah Someone like a Jordan Dawson. I'm a big Jordan Dawson fan. I'm a little bit nervous on what Adelaide are going to do. I think they're one of the biggest preseason watchers when it comes to their midfield rotations.
00:40:40
Mitch Casey
If he's in the midfield 70% of the time, I could make an argument that he would be the number one scoring player in the comp, but I just don't like how much they've played around with his role. So a little bit hesitant there. um Tom Green. um I'm a little bit nervous, the fact that he's he's so far and away the number one guy in the Giants that it's going to be a very easy thing for the other team to just stop. You stop Tom Green, you stop GWS. um So there's a little bit of a flag there for me. The the guy you mentioned before who I like the most is Andrew Bratial. Now I've had him in a lot of my successful teams, so maybe there's a bit of bias there. um But I just think he's he's a player that
00:41:25
Mitch Casey
Sorong rising up, I think could almost be a good thing. In fact, like he's going to get the attention. Bracial might be able to roam free and do his thing. He's got a good mid-season buy. He flirted around with a wing last year at the start of the season, ah but then back off the year, moved back more into the center bounce mids. And I don't think Shay Bolton is going to move him out of there or anything like that. So I like him. And then you start getting to like those sort of cheaper guys that have a bit more risks. So.
00:41:52
Mitch Casey
of the Of the more expensive guys, I think Bratial is the guy that I like the most, but there are a few other options I've had in there.
00:42:00
Holmesy
some of the cheaper ones. What about Will Day? So Will Day is interesting because he plays for Hawthorne and clearly he had a ah very injury interrupted year last year, but we did see Hawthorne switch away and and play that more Geelong model where we saw Dylan Moore being their highest averaging player at 92. They tend to share it around a lot. We we saw that. Do we think Will Day has scope to to get back to that 95 plus or do you think it's going to be a bit of a a system-based player where maybe he doesn't score for us for fantasy-wise but plays some pretty good footy in that system.
00:42:34
Mitch Casey
Um, he's, he's a guy that I've looked at. Definitely. I think he definitely has scope to be, yeah, 20, 25 points unders. Um, like we've seen him average bid nights before. Um, and that was when Hawthorne were bad. So I think, I think with more, more of the ball to be, to be one, if they're, if they're beating teams, maybe they're kicking more goals and and we've seen him.
00:42:56
Mitch Casey
We've seen him play multiple different positions, but he does score well when he's in that midfield role. So I think, I think I like him. My question back to you would be, well, is there someone of similar value that doesn't have the early season bar? Like he's priced at what, 73? Someone like an Adam Cera is sitting there very, very close to that sort of price who's done mid to high nineties before as well. Um, now I know his injury history is not something you'd love to see, but Hell, Zorko played all games last year, so did Whitfield, so did Tim English play all games, or he did the year before, and he's considered an injury-prone guy, so just because someone's been injured doesn't mean they're going to be injured this year.
00:43:32
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:43:33
Mitch Casey
so um those Those are the kind of the decisions I'm sort of, you know, making. It's like, okay, this guy's good, but is there someone else who's just as good that doesn't have the early season bias? So that's sort of my hang up for a player like Will Day. And I don't see him being a guy who's a 105-110 guy that you're sort of, he he has a bit of a flaw and and there might be some weeks where that really hurts. So I like him. I don't think I'm absolutely locking him into my side or anything by any means though.
00:44:01
Holmesy
It's interesting, so Adam Chera was going to be the next name that I sort of pitched you because you've got Chera and Docody both sort of around that price.
00:44:07
Mitch Casey
Yes.
00:44:08
Holmesy
Docody is the fantasy scorer, but we know age and an injury and sort of uncertainty of role is going to be, yeah, tricky, but Chera, what?
00:44:13
Mitch Casey
Wrong.
00:44:17
Holmesy
What role do we project in playing? Because he's played some very good football as an inside mid. there was ah That year, I think he averaged 95. I think there was some runs of 130 in there where it was he was scoring with the best best of them. Do we think he's going to be playing inside mid or do we think he's going to be playing more across half back? Both can be pretty fruitful. one I'm very interested. There's word that he went to Qatar in the off season to get some help with the Hammies. I mean, I've just heard that, how true it is. I'm not too sure, but taking a risk on these players when the when the rest of the comp isn't willing to is is a way you can differentiate. And if it comes off, it comes off. So what are you thinking with Adam Chara?
00:44:54
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I think there's something there. um He's a guy that he's put up those mid to high 90s on a low time on ground too. Like if you go look back at the seasons, like that's on 75% time on ground.
00:45:06
Mitch Casey
Like his points per minute is right up there. He was one of the better, I think, I can't remember if this is 100% true. So fact check me on this. um But I'm pretty sure his junior numbers was better than Nick Dacos um when he was a
00:45:18
Holmesy
I'm pretty sure. Yeah. He was the best in his draft crop. I'm pretty sure. Cause him and bracial got drafted in the same year.
00:45:23
Mitch Casey
Right? school Yeah.
00:45:23
Holmesy
I remember Selby, Selby saying that he was the actually the better fantasy score. So he's, he's got the, he's got the pedigree.
00:45:28
Mitch Casey
Yeah. He's got the pedigree, he's got the chops. um And a lot of the times, like those those averages are affected by injuries, but also affected by him being nursed back into an injury, from an injury as well. So his time on ground was managed and things like that. So to me, he's going to be a big preseason watch in terms of like, okay, well, what's the talk come out of the club? Like is he, is he getting high time on ground and some of those preseason games? so as he had a clean run at it. And that would make me more interested to go for something like that. The other advantage of the culture plays, they versus Richmond, round one. um So that could really be a confidence booster, a good start to your season. And that's that sort of thing. Okay.
00:46:09
Mitch Casey
If he goes off in round one and you've already got him on your team and everyone else is going to trade him in, well, they don't get that score. So that's that. You're already that one week ahead sort of a type of a player. So, um, uh, I think his role is more potentially to be an inside mid. I think that's where he wants to play, but it is still a question mark. I think I'd be more lucky to back his role in than I would Doc at ease. Um, just because of the age factor, um, because I think.
00:46:39
Mitch Casey
Doherty is better at other roles than what Cherri is, um but by no means am I locking that in. So I'd want to see it in the preseason first. I'm not just sort of going to launch in there, just crossing my fingers and hoping.
00:46:52
Holmesy
Yep. A hundred percent agree there. All right. Let's move on to the rucks. Big, big talking point because we've got some big scorers in there from last year. How are you looking at the moment with the rucks?
00:47:04
Holmesy
I know set forgets been a big talking point early on in the, in the preseason.
00:47:07
Mitch Casey
almost assume
00:47:10
Holmesy
It's trademarked boys, but, uh, how are you looking to, how are you looking to set up at the moment? Or what are you thinking?
00:47:17
Mitch Casey
Yeah, look, this is interesting because the set and forget, obviously, it's been successful, right? Like you would know, um it's been a successful strategy in the past. So why not do it again, right? um
Fantasy Football Challenges
00:47:28
Mitch Casey
I think it's It's hard for me to pay over a hunt. I think, again, I'm butchering this stat, but I think Selby's put out the stat that no fantasy winner has started with a player over 116, I want to say, is the cutoff point um in their starting squad. So that already eliminates a Rowan Marshall. um Now, a lot of the times people would say that the rucks are a bit different, like they they're more likely to go back to back years being that number one player.
00:47:57
Mitch Casey
But just look at tim Tim English last year. He dropped off 14 points per game. He was a guy who wasn't considered a top two ruckman. No one saw Tristan Sherry being this good. A lot of us, like myself included, I thought he was going to be the best improver from fantasy last year. Did not see what he did in the second half of the year coming. In fact, I trade him out like an idiot.
00:48:17
Mitch Casey
um so It's, I still think when you're paying up for the top two players, not only are you paying a lot of your salary cap, but you're also putting yourself in a position that if there is a guy that starts going off, say Tom De Koning is the next Tristan Sherry, it's very difficult to trade out of a guy who you already think is going to be a top guy for someone cheaper.
00:48:42
Mitch Casey
it's like that psychological kind of barrier to go, I've already got the guy, why would I trade him out? But other people are getting advantage. So I think having at least one cheaper ruckman puts you in a position that if something does happen, we talked about that structure, getting the go who pops, it puts you in a position to make that move a bit more willingly than if you have invested $2.2 million dollars in your ruckline and not willing to budge from that point. So I can see the sentence, forget working and it rhymes too.
00:49:15
Mitch Casey
Everyone loves a rhyming word as well. So, um, but I don't know if I see myself going down that path this year personally, but I haven't eliminated it as well. We'll have to see. What about, what about you?
00:49:26
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:49:27
Mitch Casey
Are you in there as well?
00:49:29
Holmesy
Nah, nah, not at the moment. My early drafts have been with some value rocks, but I think what might have been glossed over with the Tim English fall off last year was there was a change in ruck rule.
00:49:41
Holmesy
So ruckmen were able to um use their arms to sort of fend off in ruck contests more than there had been at the past.
00:49:41
Mitch Casey
Yes.
00:49:47
Holmesy
And we know Tim English was a ah jumping ruckman, less physical, and that he, we could see it last year, the eye test, he, he was getting smashed in all ruck contests. It was almost a ah non-factor at times.
00:50:00
Holmesy
So I think that that might've played into it, which, which makes me sort of a little bit more Keiji on starting at Tim English hoping that he can get back to his 115 plus ways because I don't necessarily think that's the case. He might he might prove me wrong, but I don't think they need him around the ground as much as they used to. And if he's not getting as many points at the stoppages, then he's not going to be one of the elite scorers. And that also makes sense as to why English and ah sorry, English as to why Cherry and Gorn were so dominant this year as the that's the way they play.
00:50:31
Holmesy
What Roland Marshall did was so far out of the box in terms of the low stoppages and and not being that physical ruckman but still still scoring. Marshall, he just he's a nervous own. ah for To have the highest highest averaging player in your team but still be worried each and every week, are they going to swing him forward? Are they going to play a back-up ruckman? It's a lot of money to be outlying.
00:50:54
Holmesy
Tom Campbell every week, was he going to come in? And yes, he's gone now, but apparently they're they're signing an SPP ruckman.
00:50:57
Mitch Casey
That's it, that's my book.
00:51:01
Holmesy
Do they, do they want Marshall Moore forward because St Kilda can't score? There's just so many question marks and they shouldn't be for the highest averaging player in the comp. So I think if you are going to pay up, I think it is a Tristan Cherry.
00:51:13
Holmesy
But at the same time, like you said, ah a 115 price tag is a lot to pay. All it takes is a few 80 games early and his price drops. But at the same time, can you get to him early days when you're trying to you know get rookies off the field? you know it's All it takes is then a 150 to even up the ledger and then everyone else is back ahead. So I'm i'm interested. Are you starting Cherry at this point in time?
00:51:34
Mitch Casey
At the moment, he's in my team um and I don't have Marshall. I'll throw a question your way. Marshall and the other ruckus in my team right now is Tonda Conning, who I'm pretty keen on. um They both at the same mid-season bar. Is that an issue for you or do you not care?
00:51:50
Holmesy
Uh, not this year, I don't think now that the, the Rockman, uh, sorry, the buyers are spread out over five rounds. I think it's, it's a bit different, but at the same time, like you said, you had three players that ended up in your team for the whole year. The chances of us actually getting to that by around and they're both still in your team because they both have got through or not injured or whatever. I think I would deal with that when I, when I get to it. Tom Deconing is interesting because he's in my team too.
00:52:15
Holmesy
Is he not more in the mold of a team English as well? That sort of jumping ruckman that can get bullied. We did see him get a little bit injured last year. There's word already in the preseason that he's a little bit sort of slow and and a little bit injured. Is that something that worries you a little bit of or am I overthinking that?
00:52:31
Mitch Casey
I think it would worry me more if he was more expensive, um but just at his price, like if he, if he does what Tim English did last year, that's an incredible pick. um And I think, I think he is in that mold of a player who can score around the ground. He racks up disposals a bit more than the average rockman. He's a really good contested mark, um which I think bodes well.
00:52:54
Mitch Casey
And he's in that, he's in that Tristan Sherry age bracket as well, ah where you can just see him continue to improve. The biggest risk of him is obviously how much do they play Mark Pitnett, do they play him at all? I threw a stat up there, I think a week or so ago that the Blues were nine and one in games that Tom De Koning was the the solo rock. And in games that Mark Pitnett played, they were four and 10. So the, at least last year's results suggest that Carlton are a better team without Mark Pitnett in the side and they have very capable tool forward. So obviously the two best basically in the competition in Mackay and Kurnow. So it's not like they need more height down in the forward line. Kurnow is a very, sorry, Mackay is a very capable chop out ruckman. So to me, it makes sense that they, they shouldn't really need to play Mark Pitnett there if Tom DeCona is healthy. So
00:53:48
Mitch Casey
um ah him moving a bit slower and a bit you know hobbled in the preseason is a bit news to me. So I'll have to after look into that one. um But I think if he if he has a clean preseason run at it, I'm very excited about what he can do um this season because, and again, he he averaged in solo games, he averaged 103 points per game in less than 80% time on ground as well. So I think the scope for that to even improve further. So yeah, I am pretty keen on what he can do.
00:54:16
Holmesy
Can I say with Sean Darcy?
00:54:19
Mitch Casey
Um, I looked at him. I don't think he has the ceiling that ah de Koning does. I don't think that there's going to be a possibility that he surprises us or does a Tristan Sherry. I think we've seen his best, which is still obviously value. Um, but if I'm picking between the two, I'd like to believe myself the possibility that I'm pleasantly surprised with a Tom De Koning and maybe that's just optimistic. Um,
00:54:50
Mitch Casey
I think also the early season match-up's favourite accounting as well. Again, he's got the Richmond first round.
00:54:55
Holmesy
Yeah, I think, I think I looked at it as well and it's off last year's data. So it's obviously not going to be a hundred percent accurate, but yeah, I think they've got the second or third easiest rock run to start, which is interesting because Cherry has the toughest.
00:55:05
Mitch Casey
k Yes, sure he does, yeah.
00:55:08
Holmesy
So, which is interesting.
00:55:11
Mitch Casey
Yeah, so Sean Darcy, look, yeah, I don't know. I think he's value. I do think he's value. Could you start both him and Tom DeCona if you really want to go that way? I think there's an argument you could say you could do that. um You'd want to be spending the money well, because the other thing is, like I don't know about your teams, but I find with the value in the forward line, the value in the midfield, I'm finding that I've got the cash.
00:55:33
Mitch Casey
um And I like to have at least, at least two to three captain options in my team early days as well, because it's all good and well to say, Oh, yeah, I'll find a captain and in the value ranges.
00:55:44
Mitch Casey
But we we don't know at that point. So those first couple of rounds, you want to have someone bankable to get a good captain score and obviously Cherry is someone that you could obviously do that with. So yeah, it's sort of why I'm leaning.
00:55:54
Holmesy
Yeah, just just on that. I mean, it's ah it's going to be a bit of a moot point if we don't get an R3 playing Rockman. But are you someone that will start a donut in round one to to loop a vice captain score or you're a big state 030 green dots, if you can, because we're trying to maximise cash gen?
00:56:13
Mitch Casey
um I'm a red dot guy. I want that VC loophole. Again, it's, I think you want everything at your disposal. Those captain scores um can make or break and just having that option, especially early in the year.
00:56:27
Mitch Casey
Like such limited sample size. We've got such limited data. Um, I want to have that two cracks at it. Um, now with that said, I want to make sure that my other 29 dots are green and I want the best rookies. Um, and last year I did the same. Like last year I carried Zach Reed, um, max Heath, and I'm pretty sure another red dot for majority of the season. And I still had more cash than I think I've ever had. I had 23 premiums.
00:56:55
Mitch Casey
had the potential to get 24. So the the cash generation is sometimes more about the quality of the rooks, not the quantity of the rooks. Like if you're going to pay out for someone and they make you 60K, like what does that actually do for you? It does nothing. So um yeah, I'm um um'm a big fan of having that red dot and the Ruck line is an easy point place to have it.
00:57:15
Holmesy
Yeah. And like I said, it's all going to depend on whether we get someone. Do you think the coaches benefited last year who started Tristan Cherry at R3? Or do you think, yes, the cash was fantastic, but it just put them at too much of a points deficit to to be competing at the top end? I don't think I've heard of anyone who started Cherry at R3 that was really competing at the top end. You had coaches that had very good seasons, but they weren't competing at the very top.
00:57:42
Mitch Casey
Yeah. Um, I never seriously consider it myself. Um, I was surprised to see some coaches do well in that scenario. Like I think, um, Goran's in the lemon did something similar to that. And obviously he's a very smart guy. Um, uh, actually I'm not sure if that's 100% correct, but I know there was some people that did it and they had sold a solid, um, solid seasons, but It's not something I would again talking about giving yourself things to do. I think that's another example of you making a trade for yourself that at some point you've got to trade those guys out. A lot of times when you trade a player out who's like 800K and you got to going down to a basement, you're not really able to capitalize and use all that cash in the one week. It's sort of like you've got this leftover cash and you haven't quite used it. um So you're you're catching up more slowly than you would otherwise think um in a and a lot of cases. So
00:58:39
Mitch Casey
ah I don't think it's something that I would entertain if something like that popped up again.
00:58:44
Holmesy
Yep, yep,
Final Thoughts and Podcast Wrap-Up
00:58:45
Holmesy
fair, fair call. I think Gorranges and Lemons was actually the one that first introduced the idea. We did a Holmes Files episode together and he was the first one to sort of mention it and it snowballed from there.
00:58:55
Holmesy
And he did. he He had a very good year. He always has a very good year, but not the not the top 100 year that he's normally sort of chasing.
00:58:59
Mitch Casey
ah
00:59:03
Holmesy
you as He was sort of around that top 1K. mark, which I think it was probably just a bit too many points left on the bench at that point in time. I think if you did it, you needed to correct very quickly to get Cherry on field with what he was doing.
00:59:16
Holmesy
But in saying that, not like you said, no one expected Cherry to be the the second highest averaging player in the in the comp. Everyone thought he was just going to be a nice sort of 90 95 100 ruckman to get that cash going and then and then flip him a bit later on but let's move quickly now to the forward line because the echo chamber is real here i think every forward line that i've seen so far has had the the same combination of sort of six or seven players so how are you looking with the forward line at the moment do you have any spicy takes for us or it's all going to be pretty vanilla
00:59:30
Mitch Casey
Yeah.
00:59:46
Mitch Casey
Uh, not so spicy, man, but, but what I will say is, is do your research. You know what I mean? Like go through and look at it yourself. Just because everyone's saying that Jack McRae, Phillip, who Bailey Smith, Caleb Dunyra locks into your side. I could poke holes and in their game, right? Like Jack McRae has been terrible the last two years. Like.
01:00:05
Mitch Casey
we all have this picture of out in our mind that he's 110 plus midfielder when he plays a midfield time. Well, maybe he's just not very good anymore. Maybe he's not a good midfielder and maybe the Saints a aren't actually going to put him in there. Philippou, we saw, we saw like three games. um You know, it's a small sample size. um Maybe he's not actually ready to take that top step. Bailey Smith is probably the hardest to poke a hole in, but he's coming off an ACL. Like maybe, and it's Geelong. He's obviously got that round three by um He's a guy that thrives with high time on ground. Maybe you won't get that high time on ground on a Geelong team. Maybe he plays a bit more forward wing role. Caleb Daniel, like, there's no guarantee that he's going to get that market share over someone like a McCurcher, like a Sheezle, those other guys. Fisher's still there. You know, he was in and out of the Bulldogs team. So you can poke holes in these guys' narrative, but at the same time,
01:01:00
Mitch Casey
A lot of them are so cheap that even if it doesn't go well, there's only so far you can fall. You still got a lot of upside. So even with those holes being able to poke into their gu into their into their narratives, I still think I'm starting the majority of them. The least confident I am is in Jack McRae, just because I do believe that he is a step slower than a lot of people care to admit.
01:01:22
Mitch Casey
Um, I think he's landed in the best possible scenario, the best possible team to have a crack at it. I think in most other teams, I think you'd be fighting, but the saints, the saints midfield was pretty crap last year. Um, and I think he is better than most of them.
01:01:40
Mitch Casey
Um, I think it is pretty, it's not the line that I think we're going to make differential in our team. A lot of us going to have a rookie. The F1 is probably the only interesting decision. Are you going to go at a horn Francis? Are you going to go somewhere cheaper? Is a McCray going to be F1? I think that's probably the but area you can differentiate yourself from.
01:01:58
Holmesy
Yeah, well, let's go haunt Francis quickly because he's interesting. I mean, you've you've spoken about that you're interested in a in a Connor Rosie. He's been in and out of your side. You've got Connor Rosie.
01:02:11
Holmesy
We know what Zack Butters is going to do. Yeah, he he might get a little bit more attention.
01:02:13
Mitch Casey
Yep.
01:02:15
Holmesy
So maybe that hurts his fantasy scoring a little bit that he's he's their number one slash number two guy at the moment. We saw last year that they switched away from a tight midfield group that were very Butters, Rosie, Horned Francis, Wines and Drew all getting that sort of 50 to 65%. You know, Horned Francis, yeah, is is every chance to be a top six forward, but there's also every chance that he stays the same more or even sort of regresses around that mark. So what are you thinking with Horned Francis?
01:02:43
Mitch Casey
Yeah, he's an interesting one. When I first opened the game up, he was in my side, but I've since taken him out. um I think he'll be a top six forward. Don't get me wrong. I think he's going to be a 90 averaging player.
01:02:56
Mitch Casey
Can he be a ah hundred guy? I think is the question. Is there any value in in starting him? And I don't think I can definitively say so. He also is a guy that has a flaw. Um, so I do think that there's a decent chance that he at some point will be cheaper. And I don't see him being a player that if you don't start him, that he's going to really hurt you. Um, let me put it that way. So.
01:03:23
Mitch Casey
When there's potential for him to be a low floor player, I don't see a super high ceiling. I also think he's going to be popular. I think there's a chance I'm going to get him cheaper. Although signs all lead to me fading him and trying to go for something a little bit cheaper, something that has a little bit more upside, maybe something a little bit more unique.
01:03:44
Mitch Casey
um But at the same time, he probably is going to have the best role out of most midfielders. Um, but even in that role, he hasn't been like a ah good fantasy score. He's probably more of that supercoach type player, isn't he? Um, so at the moment he's not in my side, but he might come back in.
01:04:05
Holmesy
Yeah, I'm always big on, you know, looking like a horn for e Horn Francis for example. I've looked at a Connor Rosie as well and you can't, I don't think you can pick both, especially when you know, when you know Butters is going to be what Butters is as well. Like we think, you know, this player can go X, this player can go Y, but very rarely do we look at them all together and sometimes picks kind of contradict each other. So that's what I'm a little bit worried about with Horn Francis.
01:04:30
Holmesy
although you still got the most natural progression to happen out of all of those midfielders.
01:04:34
Mitch Casey
Yeah.
01:04:35
Holmesy
And it wouldn't surprise me if, you know, Wines is now all of a sudden out of the team or out of the midfield and and he sort of takes a bit of a backward step and Horn Francis does progress. But the natural progression stuff is always the one that I try to err on the side of caution.
01:04:49
Holmesy
And if it does happen, I'm more than happy to trade into.
01:04:50
Mitch Casey
great
01:04:53
Holmesy
But picking them on the basis that they will naturally progress as is why I i tend to, and I mean, I didn't start Chisel last year. i I traded into him round two because I could see it. But that was the this a similar sort of thing is that natural progression, I like to say, and that's the kind of vibe I get from a Horne Francis.
01:05:12
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I think, yeah, I mean, that midfield, like, you would have to, I think to be confident starting him, you would have to be thinking that either a drew or a wide is going to see a semi significant drop in their center bounce usage. And I don't think I see that because I don't think those guys do much in other positions.
01:05:32
Mitch Casey
um And I think Port, I mean, they're they're going to try and win as many games as they can. They're not going to, I don't see them dramatically changing things, switching things up. um I mean, he's he's got forward status for a reason because at times he's got to play forward, right? And and that's when he has that really low floor and could be a source of frustration. So yeah, I think I think i agree with you there.
01:05:59
Holmesy
on the On the lower end, are there any other value players that you're looking at outside of the ones we've sort of spoken about?
01:06:06
Mitch Casey
There's not too many in the cheap end. I think a guy that i I like at the moment is Isaac Rankin. um I like him as an alternative to a Jason Horn Francis. um Shay Bolton, you could talk me into, although I think there's the similar kind of things that you could talk about with the Horned Francis there with with a Shane, the fact that he's a bit more of a Supercoach player than he is a fantasy player. um He's going to a better team, but does that actually eventuate into into more scoring? I have my doubts. But yeah, Isaac Rankin I think is a player that could be someone that
01:06:47
Mitch Casey
average is very similar to a Horned Francis, but you get 100k off. um And again, he's he's a guy that we saw a bit more going on in the in the center bounces in the second half of the year. But again, that that Adelaide midfield, i and I tweeted this out a couple of days ago, I think it's going to be the most fascinating watches this preseason between him, Pete Ling,
01:07:09
Mitch Casey
What are they doing with Matt Crouch? Is Royal Laird actually going back? What's Jordan Dawson doing? You've got Selego who's going to be in there. There's a lot of names to go through there. Is is he a guy that goes center bounces and then just immediately goes forward? What's what's his actual capability? so By no means is he locked into my side, but at the moment he sits there right now.
01:07:28
Mitch Casey
I'm not a big Liam Baker fan. I've heard his name getting talked up. I just don't think he's a fantasy guy. I love him. Like honestly, one of my favorite players in the game as a Richmond fan. Well, I just don't see the fantasy scoring um as a guy.
01:07:39
Holmesy
You might have to ah might have to apologize to Bails then, mate.
01:07:43
Mitch Casey
Well, is he a big fan?
01:07:45
Holmesy
Yeah, Bails has him at F1, I think.
01:07:47
Mitch Casey
Yeah, I couldn't bring myself to do it. I just I don't see him as a fantasy scorer. I think he's more of that great player. So um So outside of those guys, there's not anyone I really love and that's why I still think that Horned Francis could be a player that enters my team just because I don't see any sort of outside of the big four Maybe it is a rookie that that comes in I'd be open to that and maybe bolstering another part of my ground um But like I said, I'm not I'm not a rookie expert I don't see a lot of the forward rookies being talked about the way the midfield rookies are
01:08:18
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Couldn't agree more. And I mean, it kind of makes us a bit redundant if we just say, you know, wait till two weeks before the season to see what rookies are going to get named and whatnot. But ah it's so always fun to tinker at this time of the year, mate. Thank you so much for jumping on. You've been very, very generous with your time. I ah do really appreciate it. Can you just ah let all the listeners know where they can find you and and what you might have in store for the ball boys this season?
01:08:43
Mitch Casey
Yeah, mate. ah Yeah, you can find us anywhere you get podcasts at Ballboys AFL Fantasy on YouTube at Ballboys AFL Fantasy. You can follow me on Twitter or X at Ballboys Fantasy. um And we will be kicking off our content come the 1st of January. So New Year's Day, we'll be talking about things we learned, a bit of a preview to the start of the season. um We like to start that first podcast, a bit of fun, a bit of light.
01:09:08
Mitch Casey
heart humor and then and then we'll be getting into the positional breakdown. So we started with the defenders talking about some premiums and mid prices. And this year, if you're a draft fan, um stay tuned because we're gonna be trying to do a lot more draft videos as well this year because it is coming from that basketball background. It is my bread and butter. So I wanted to dip my toe into that and we've got some new draft platforms to to play around with as well. So I'm excited to talk about that and potentially a few other little s sneaky surprises.
01:09:37
Mitch Casey
maybe come February, which I can't quite announce just yet, but um yeah, stay tuned to social medias and I'll ah update you as we go along.
01:09:46
Holmesy
ah Beautiful, mate. Looking forward to it. And for everyone else, make sure you're following us on X at Pod Pod AFL. Make sure you are liking and subscribing to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Mitch, thanks for jumping on again, mate. Hopefully you can go back to backing and get yourself a second hat and join that crew. It would be it be unreal. But for everyone else, thanks for listening. Hope you have a good New Year's and we'll chat again soon.
01:10:15
Mitch Casey
eight