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The Holmes Files - AFL Fantasy Classic Winner 2024 Chris
1.4k Plays18 days ago
Some people enjoy a long off-season, but for many die hard AFL Fantasy coaches the pre season can be one of the most exciting times of the year! Holmesy has decided to dust off the mics and bring you a special Holmes File episode - sitting down with Chris the coach of "Noeyedeer5" to discuss his epic fantasy season that concluded with him driving away in a brand new Toyota Hilux! A staple for many fantasy coaches pre-season, join us as we learn from the reigning champ.
On this episode, Holmesy takes a deep dive into the thought process behind what made Chris so successful in 2024. We discuss the important early bye round strategy, dissect his trading strategy and how he set himself up to be successful, how he capitalised during the mid season byes, and the epic trading that saw him take out first place. Discussing all things strategy and philosophy, this episode is not one to be missed. Welcome back AFL Fantasy!
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Dos: @HKdos
Chris: @chrisburnham5
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Transcript
Introduction to The Holmes Files and Fantasy Coaches
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmes, you're here talking all things AFL fantasy classic. For you in this, where are we, December now? Man, it's good to hear that music. It's been a while.
00:00:31
Holmesy
We're back with a little special episode of The Holmes Files.
Who is Chris, the AFL Fantasy Classic winner?
00:00:35
Holmesy
If you're new to this, this is where I sort of deep dive with some of the brightest ah brightest fantasy coaches in the community. And well, we've gone straight to the top this year. And first one off the gate, I've got ah Chris, the winner of AFL fantasy classic 2024 coach of, or is it no idea five? Chris, how are you, mate? Welcome to the show.
00:00:56
Chris
Fantastic, Hosey. Thanks so much, mate. Thanks for having me. It still feels surreal to be telling me that I was in a more advanced coach last year.
00:01:00
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:01:05
Chris
so Still doesn't feel quite real.
What was it like winning the Toyota Hilux?
00:01:08
Holmesy
What about that Hilux into driveway? Does that feel real?
00:01:11
Chris
Oh, absolutely. that was That was pretty awesome. It was fun doing that with Toyota. um And then as ah as a 3.0 fan as well, let yourself, we've got to I got Jaimus came out, which was pretty fun. um So I got through the the photo shoot with him.
00:01:27
Holmesy
Yeah, look, we we're all very jealous as someone that's been there but didn't quite get there and and you've managed to do it.
How did Chris start in AFL Fantasy and who influenced him?
00:01:34
Holmesy
Look, I'm looking forward to to deep diving with you to to see how you did it. Obviously, last year we were we were tackled with some things we hadn't seen before with the ah the round zero buyers coming into play, so i'm very interested to to see how you tackled that. and and really looking forward to just getting back into it. It's always a good time of year, December, the podcast will, ah they'll all start to be ramping up ah relatively soon. We've obviously got the traders with their team previews and then ah the 50 most relevant comes out and it really is a the funnest time of year before it all starts crashing down rounds one or two when when it all falls apart, but not for you, mate. So why don't you just give us a little bit of your your fantasy background and just let the listeners, you know, get to know you a little bit.
What is Chris's strategic approach to AFL Fantasy?
00:02:17
Chris
Yeah, thanks, mate. So I've been playing since 2017. Um, I've had, I think three top thousand finishes, um, and always got a hard luck story. Um, I think last year I had the Callum meals three, um, at that stage of the season, I was about 32nd or so. So I was, I'd way of a worked, was working then for me.
00:02:44
Chris
um And then when that happened again with Tom Green this year, and it was almost like deja vu. But yeah, absolutely. I've loved my fantasy. I started doing footy tipping when I first got to Australia just to understand the game, watch watch all the games. um And then obviously Brother-in-Law Selby was like, you should do fantasy. It really helps you to learn all the players.
00:03:10
Chris
Um, and that first year, obviously he won the, he won the car himself. Um, and I remember talking about starting squads that day. Um, and I think he had a bunch of Adelaide players cause it was the year that, uh, is it autumn?
00:03:24
Chris
A few of those guys were around and, um, I was like, Oh, he got a lot of Adelaide players. So, and it was just funny. He was like at the end of the season, he was like, yeah, mate, you had a crack at my team at the beginning of the season.
00:03:35
Chris
Let's see who did well.
00:03:38
Chris
Um,
00:03:38
Holmesy
Yeah, so is that three Hiluxes in the in the Selby extended family now, which is insane to think about?
00:03:47
Chris
it's it's It's funny.
00:03:47
Holmesy
Yeah, and unbelievable.
00:03:49
Chris
um i'll I'll embarrass him a little bit. I went over to his house and I was like, oh, we should get a photo with both our hats together. and he goes And he goes into the drawer and he grabs one.
00:04:00
Chris
No, not that one. grabs not Not that one. And grabs it and grabs the 2017 one. I'm like, it's pretty amazing.
00:04:07
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah. yeah he He's the goat.
00:04:09
Chris
um
00:04:11
Holmesy
That's for sure.
00:04:12
Chris
But yeah, it's it's it's it's pretty remarkable that I get to stand alongside him now and be like, yep, then that's my turn to try and go again next year.
00:04:13
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:04:21
Holmesy
Yeah, absolutely. So nice and keen to to roll around again. I know some people, they, you know, they get to the top and they think, nah, don't need to do it again and it can be a bit much, but you're you're more than happy to roll around and try and go back to back.
Reflections on past AFL Fantasy seasons
00:04:34
Chris
It's funny, like i last season, I think, because i' had like I think 2023, I had a really good crack at it and had a few bad luck stories and ended up missing out again. And I was like, oh, it takes up so much of my weekend. All week, I'm always agonizing over trades, all this kind of thing. I'm listening to so much content. you know It's taken over my life. Maybe this will be my last year of doing it. um And then it obviously turned out pretty well. And then also thinking about it, like i've've I've longed an art about this year because I'm like suddenly I'll be an a marked man as opposed to previous years where I've just been able to go onto the radar um and no one's really cared if I've done well or not sort of thing. So think I think the fact that I've had to by round nine last two years I've been in the top 40 odd tells me that
00:05:28
Chris
i I've got a bit of a good process going, so I'll give it a crack and see what happens. But I know it's hard like that list that I think Jayden put out that shows the last three years of how all the fantasy coaches have got gone. And it shows like some are blown out or not attempted the following year. And it's it's hard to go back to back or even get too hatched like yourself sort of thing. So it's hard.
00:05:53
Holmesy
Oh, mate, don't don't put me into that conversation anymore. I'm um'm washed after the last couple of years. I'm i'm keen to deep dive to try and try and get back up there. You mentioned that you you came over from the UK, so you didn't grow up in Australia. Do you find that that's kind of helped you with AFL fantasy, where you can kind of, you know, a lot of us overthink things. We're trying to sort of analyze the game with what we know, but you're you know, having a bit more of a unique sort of look at the game, you' you're more than happy to just dive into the numbers or you reckon you've got a pretty good understanding of footy as well and that's that's helped you.
00:06:24
Chris
um I think, of I mean, I love all all all ball sports. I love so I can get around anything. um So I think definitely and and I enjoy ah AFL as it's almost push over the Premier League for me um in terms of what I watch and what I consume. um In terms of ah whether it was, I mean, obviously with Tom Hales as well, being an English person as well, being at the top there, um I think not having any preconceived ideas about footy is probably quite handy. um play Good players in fantasy aren't necessarily good players in AFL as well, like you'll get your Riley Bonners, you'll get 25 touches and turn it over 25 times um versus someone like a Pendlebury who will use it beautifully but he isn't scoring your fantasy points.
00:07:13
Chris
um So yeah, maybe maybe coming in with just looking at and a ah financial and and and and analytical view I think has definitely helped.
00:07:23
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, Selby obviously knows his footy, but he comes from that analytical mind as well. So definitely, definitely something to it. Let's let's start to deep dive. So we're not really going to talk any 2025 upcoming season on this podcast. We're just going to sort of deep dive on um what you did last year and and what made you successful.
What was Chris's starting squad strategy?
00:07:42
Holmesy
And then, you know, fingers crossed I'll be able to get you back on at some stage to to get you to chat about how you plan to attack this upcoming season, knowing now that you are the hunted and we're all chasing you, but why don't you talk to us a little bit about your your starting squad philosophy last year and and how you sort of attacked building your starting squad.
00:08:00
Chris
Yeah, so um interestingly, I think round zero, I think it threw up curve balls. I didn't love it. However, for AFL fantasy itself, I think it was great because we got to look at players. um It definitely, like when you watch the preseason games, you suddenly rip your team back. And I think the team that I had about two weeks before round zero, it was quite different to what went into round one.
00:08:30
Chris
um Brody Grundy was an example. Obviously, I think a lot of people will go Max Gorn. I think Grundy dominated Gorn in that game and suddenly that was the switch. So I started my get but started round one with Brody Grundy. um And I also, so i've got I had seven people from the round zero um in my starting squad.
00:08:55
Chris
um ah had so but not I've not counted Tristan Cherry as a primo from the stocks. I feel like he wasn't a primo and going into the season.
00:09:06
Chris
So I had nine primos, nine mid, and I think it was eight mid prices and four rookies.
00:09:14
Holmesy
Yep.
00:09:14
Chris
Sorry, no, nine mid prices, nine primos, four rookies. um And I felt like Because of the the best 18s for all those early rounds, you could probably get by with having a few rough goes because in the end, a lot of those smaller scores are dropping off as well. um We talked about like Tom Green. um So he was literally, I had him round one and two and then traded him out straight away.
00:09:47
Chris
um He made me, I think it was about 50k and was a top scorer. He was a cat named with my captain week one. um And I think my captain week two as well, to be honest. and It was just a great
How did Chris manage early trades and performances?
00:10:00
Chris
start off, get out of the blocks well. I had some pretty interesting choices. So Connor Budderick, he was one that had the pre-season hype. And I think Hardwick was saying that he was going to be his jade and short this year.
00:10:15
Chris
um so
00:10:17
Holmesy
came out and had a 40, didn't he, in that wet game on the Gold Coast in round one, I think.
00:10:19
Chris
So, I think it might view might have even been less than a 40, but yeah, it was pretty bad.
00:10:22
Holmesy
It wasn't much.
00:10:25
Chris
So he was the first one on the chopping block um and I didn't get right. I got, and Riley Bono obviously, he was the pre-season chat.
00:10:35
Chris
There was a few people getting around him, so I was able to move straight into him. um And, It was that, I also went Carl Eamon, which I think probably no one else in the top 10,000 probably went. And the hope was that he's off half back. I thought he was going to be this great player. And I think later on in the season, he may have turned into that a hundred plus player, but he was just a source of frustration. So he was gone early doors. And I think that was, especially for me early, I think in the first three or four rounds, I think,
00:11:12
Chris
very happy to trade out underperforming premiums um and even in underperforming mid-prices because it's the time to do it I think. um The other thing as well was I backed in a lot of mid-prices so I had Elliott Yeo at the beginning of the season, I had um Nick Martin, I had ah the James Jordan, Alex Sexton, those kind of guys, Zach Fisher. So my team was probably, it probably had a lot of the preseason buzz that everyone else had gone with. um And I think I was about 20,000th after round one. So probably wasn't the, it probably didn't have a great start. And I think Butterick was one of the main reasons behind that.
00:12:03
Chris
um And then it became it also became, in those first few rounds, a bit of rookie roulette as well. So because of the looping, which obviously probably wouldn't be the car in the end, I think being able to get a look at someone's score was pretty handy because then you could also trade around that as well because you didn't need 22 players for those first few weeks. um So those those early bra those early buys were pretty handy.
00:12:33
Chris
um
00:12:35
Holmesy
Yeah, let's let's deep let's deep dive in into this a little bit because I'm a bit intrigued.
00:12:36
Chris
Think.
00:12:40
Holmesy
So you've mentioned a lot of players here um that were were bus picks. You know, Butterick wasn't good. Carl Eamon didn't work out. um You've even had Alex Sexton.
00:12:50
Holmesy
I think he was dropped after round four, three or four. I'm just looking at your bench here as well. So Sean Manor, I think he was sub and didn't last very long. Charlie Lazaro was in and out.
00:13:01
Holmesy
um You had Jay Clark, you had Charlie Dean that was I think dropped after a couple of rounds So clearly you've done something right here to get everything back on the right track So what was your what was your main focus to get out of all get out all of these players and to get in the right you go
00:13:16
Chris
It's funny, Charlie Lin and Charlie Dean ended up as my in my final squad. He didn't go anywhere the whole season. um e um I think it's, I went a lot of value, I think as well. I think um Tom Green was my most expensive mid and then it really tailed off pretty quickly with like Jack Steele, Nick Martin and Carl Amart.
00:13:41
Chris
um and then go in the Grundy Cherry versus everyone else going Gore. And so I think remembering off the top of my head, I think I had a had a bit of money in the bank um to start the season. So, and I mean, it's it's it seems obvious, but the players that I picked, I went through every single one of them and agonized over them all and basically decided how many points were they gonna outscore their prize.
00:14:09
Chris
Um, so if you've got a Grundy and he was priced at say, I think with Grundy was about like a 90 or something like that. And I was expecting him to go like a 9,500.
00:14:19
Holmesy
I think it was even less.
00:14:19
Chris
It was.
00:14:20
Holmesy
I think he started at 75 for memory. He was real, real cheap, I think.
00:14:25
Chris
Yeah. So I think it was basically looking and like Lou Jackson as well. So I think no Darcy those first few weeks, I really gambled on players like that jumping out and going well. Um,
00:14:39
Chris
Like I remember, was yeah I think it was it three years ago, I think um the Hawthorne Rook that escapes my name right now, he was a defender Rook for a while. But hey if you had him from the start, I think he's averaged like 95, 100 across the
How does Chris select players based on value?
00:14:57
Chris
whole beginning. and it's But you saved so much cash in that and that position. um And that was the same with my, yeah even in my forward line, looking at like Zach Fisher at F3.
00:15:09
Chris
um I think I had just had lots of players who had value and I was able to then trade them in as well. So my first few trades like Ollie Wines, I moved him on and went to Roddy Bonner.
00:15:20
Chris
So that was actually a cash crab.
00:15:23
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:15:24
Chris
And then ah Alex Sexton to Tom Powell um and kind of, yeah, just despite i think I think it was it was a looking at a lot of the trades.
00:15:37
Chris
Um, almost a one up, one down, but not necessarily going to the bottom. Like I, the only, the first rookie I brought in was Harvey Thomas in round four.
00:15:49
Chris
Um, so otherwise it had been a bit of like mid price shuffling.
00:15:49
Holmesy
Yeah. Okay.
00:15:52
Chris
So. Butterick wines to Clark and Bonner and then green and sexton out. And I brought Powell and Crouch in and then it was Lazaro and Carl Eamonn out and then Dan Zorko.
00:16:04
Chris
um And I think I was probably quite quick on the Dan Zorko trigger.
00:16:10
Holmesy
Yep. Yep.
00:16:11
Chris
I've seen enough early.
00:16:11
Holmesy
Did you, um, did you bring in Gorn at all? Just by question.
00:16:14
Chris
Never owned go on all season.
00:16:17
Holmesy
So you've, you've won the comp and you had without Max Gorn, who was, he was going at 120, I think for the first, you know, 10 or so weeks.
00:16:24
Chris
he was He was definitely hurting me and the time that I actually was like, right, I've got to get him in now was the week that he went out. So I think as well, though, the the cash that I was saving from Grundy to Gorn, though, I feel like I was able to put that on other players as well.
00:16:40
Chris
um
00:16:41
Holmesy
Yep.
00:16:42
Chris
And even like Seth Campbell, like I held him for a while and he was just a gentle cash grow in the background um and did what he needed to do, jumping on Will Graham and Sam Closie as well of Gold Coast.
00:16:58
Chris
um they were pretty obvious trades. And I think as well, my first forced trade, I think when I look at my trades I did was round six for Matt Crouch. um So I think in past years, especially the COVID year, I think I got a forced trade every, I think every trade was a forced trade for the entire season. um To get through to round six and be my first forced trade and I turned Matt Crouch into Sam Walsh. So it it ended up bringing a pretty good move on. and um And it was each week I looked at the premiums as well. So I was slowly growing them out. So round six, I had 12 premiums on the ground, round seven, 13. And it just each week I was able to turn those those decent rookies. So like, yeah, you're Seth Campbell's, Harvey Thomas,
00:17:53
Chris
um and those guys basically in Colby McCurcher, Matt Roberts, all those guys just just held them as well they grew and then eventually traded them in and was able to get a decent trade on the other side.
Mid-season adjustments and player optimization
00:18:09
Holmesy
So it sounds like you ah you built your starting squad with lots of mid prices, just trying to find a lot of value, knowing that not all of them are going to work out, but just being really crucial with who you were trading in, making sure that you get on the important guys like your bonners and and those types that were extreme value at the time. And while you're doing that, you're just slowly building the rookies that allowed you to to make those crucial upgrades and and get in front of the upgrade cycle come around six, seven, eight, nine, and it it just snowballed, correct?
00:18:36
Chris
Absolutely, yeah. and i think And I think honestly, I think the the best 18 was huge for me as well, because it just meant that you could you could almost wear donuts if you wanted to um and and advance your team as long as the next week you were in a better position.
00:18:54
Holmesy
So let's um let's just, before we move on, let's just talk about the and the buy rounds. So you looking at your starting squad, I think you might've started a few extra, then a lot of us were kind of anticipating. I think a lot of the, well, a lot of the podcasts at least, and a lot of the brighter minds in the community, you know, mid prices and rookies, they were more than happy to take a punt on, especially if you'd seen a good score in round zero, but the general consensus was ah no premiums from the early round buyers.
00:19:22
Holmesy
Whitfield obviously forced our hands in round zero. I think he had a 130 or something and he just couldn't not pick him. But, you know, Tom Green, we all knew that he had the good um round one and round two matchups, but you being one of the only people I know that started him, but then had the balls to to jump off him at round two. So that's that's um interesting.
00:19:43
Holmesy
Brody Grundy, I think, obviously most of us started him with his good round one, around zero score, and then that obviously dropped off in round one, but he was he was good enough. Isaac Heaney, we're all starting Isaac Heaney anyway.
00:19:57
Holmesy
butji
00:19:57
Chris
Yeah.
00:19:59
Holmesy
Did you advocate like looking back on it now and reflecting and and trying to build a strategy for this coming season? Would you would you do all that again if you if you believe um you know a premium has a good run to start the year? You're more than happy to to start a few of them knowing that potentially you could jump off of them if everything else is working.
00:20:16
Chris
Yeah, I mean, I think I've got, I think definitely Heaney and Whitfield, like if a forced, if another forced trade and it probably would have derailed the season, um And Tom Green, I always, I always felt like it was going to be a two week play. I don't know what, I think, yeah, I think that he had a good round zero score and those first two match ups, everyone knew he was going to go well. um And I think Matt Crouch had had a good enough start as well that I'd missed him, that I felt like getting Matt Crouch in was a cash grab and it was, it was a safety in numbers.
00:20:55
Chris
So I think, like you say, I think I was one of the few people who had Tom Green. I was one of the few people probably who didn't have Matt Crouch. So I made cash on the Tom Green move and was able to jump into him. Obviously then round five, I think it was round six. I think he got, was it dropped or injured?
00:21:13
Holmesy
Yeah, I don't think you got dropped but yeah, you definitely spent some time out.
00:21:18
Chris
Yes. um So yeah, I think, All that, I think, yeah, I think definitely this year, I haven't looked at which players I will be looking to bring in, but I think that you have to you have to determine whether across the seven rounds that where the buyers will be kicking in, you're going to lose one week of that player. But if that player is going to go at 130 during that period, is there a player that's going to go within 20 or 30 points of it each round to be able to make up that gap?
00:21:51
Chris
um so if you had a
00:21:51
Holmesy
Yeah. just ah just on that Just on that, sorry, I'm not sure if you've been across it, but the buy rounds are changing this year. So they're still the same amount of round zero games, but they're actually getting the buys done in the first, I think five rounds this year instead of ah six or seven. So they they go to two players in a buy in round one are in round two, four in round three, and then I think they go two in round four and then they're done before gather round. So does that change your thinking at all, knowing that it's more condensed?
00:22:21
Chris
I mean that round three, if there's four teams, that's going to you're probably going to avoid players on that round three. um Because like obviously in the later buys as well, you always want to have twenty as many as many players as possible playing. um And you don't want to be taking too much of a haircut if you do have all premiums on that buy. So I think that
Upcoming season strategies and buy round changes
00:22:42
Chris
was the other thing as well. So that first buy, the Brisbane Carlton, I think I avoided all Brisbane and Carlton players.
00:22:49
Chris
um And then that second bye, so I had Alex Sexton, and so Alex Sexton, Whitfield and Tom Green, and I decided that Tom Green was the one I was gonna, and Alex Sexton, I'd shot both of those um in that bye. So they were just a quick, they were a two week play. um So yeah, I think I'll have to look at how the buyers look and who, which team, but yeah, definitely. I think on that four game buy, I think you need to be light on the, on the premium for that one.
00:23:23
Holmesy
Yeah, it's it's going to be tough without going too much into it. We've got some nice names on that buy already. I mean, Callum Mills, Bailey Smith, any of the Brisbane boys you're looking at, um it's going to be it's going to be tough. It's going to be interesting to see how that how we all play it. But yeah, we don't need to don't need to go into that now. So you've come out of the early round buyers. Where were you ranked?
00:23:42
Chris
Um, I think, so thinking around, I think round, I was probably in the top two, two or 300, I think. Um, cause I was going pretty well. Actually it could have been, actually it could have actually been a lot higher. I'm just trying, I'm just trying to remember. So I've got my, I've got one where I was in the bodies. Um, but round eight, which is two rounds out of it, I had the Tom Green. Um, what was his, I think he scored a quarterta seven.
00:24:13
Holmesy
Yep.
00:24:13
Chris
ah And that really derailed me a bit. And I think my my ranking dropped pretty significantly because I was probably one of the few people who had him again and rode that seven.
00:24:26
Chris
um
00:24:26
Holmesy
Just on that, did you did you trade him out after that? Or did you hold him?
00:24:30
Chris
No, that he was a keeper from there on. so he He started, he was in my starting in squad, he was in my end squad, but he didn't quite make it all the way through. So he came back in at round eight. I think he'd had a bit of a, he'd had a bit of a poor run as well.
00:24:41
Holmesy
Yeah, I just
00:24:45
Holmesy
Yeah, it's and something with some other mates of mine have been talking about is this holding players through injury. So we' we're in a bit of a unique situation this year where you had um Tom Green. So he had the seven and then he played on, but he he clearly wasn't himself for the next couple of weeks. ah getting 70s and 80s and just not not getting around the ground. You had Conor Rosie who had the the hamstring three quarter time on 90 and then he played the next week and and had the 40 odd. You had Marshall who had the injury and then he played on, but he went he went big. So what is your philosophy with holding and trading these type of players?
00:25:19
Chris
So it's it is it's it's funny, as I think it's what everyone's favorite thing, team dependent. um I think it is a case of looking around at other players and if like especially especially this season, and I feel
How to manage player injuries in AFL Fantasy?
00:25:32
Chris
like the rookies that come in, I think Billy Dowling was one that was huge for the back end of the season. If you've got a rookie that you can probably get a 75 or an 80 out of,
00:25:45
Chris
If you believe the player's injury is a short one, I reckon you can hold them and write out your rookie score or or your bench cover um for as long as possible. um Obviously, I think if it's a if it's a two or three week, I think you're probably pushing it. But if it's a one week, and like with Tom Green, like they said he was available ready to go next round. I think the Connor Rosie one was pretty unlucky. I think it was clear he wasn't ready to go.
00:26:12
Chris
um I reckon that hurt quite a few people because they would have been thinking force trade always playing. Let's hold him. Um, which is where it it frustrates the heck out of me that, um, the injury reporting in the AFL is horrendous. Um, and the fact that players can be named, la named, like laid out, they can't even, they've not trained all week and they're named on the, on Friday and then they don't play on Saturday. Um, it's pretty frustrating. So.
00:26:41
Chris
I think it really depends on what the injury is and the actual player as well. where they're getting like a If they're a't in the guts midfielder, um like if it's a shoulder injury, you're probably avoiding that sort of thing because they're not going to be tackling. um If there's someone who gets marks, especially, ah you know you don't you don't want a player that's got a hand injury and that kind of thing. So I think it might even be injury dependent as well.
00:27:07
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's, it is really tough and that's where, you know, there is no right or wrong answer. You think you do the right thing and it doesn't work out and and vice versa, but I suppose you are right with it being team dependent.
00:27:18
Holmesy
It's also fixture dependent where you're right if you do have ah a decent rookie that plays early, you you get a look at this day and age with the rolling lockout and, and if you're smart, you can, you can make a decision, decision later on.
00:27:29
Holmesy
So you've, you've come out of the
00:27:29
Chris
The role in London. wrong
00:27:32
Holmesy
So you've come out of the buyers, you're just building your team slowly, you're starting to add premiums. How did you go about tacking the mid-season buyers?
00:27:41
Chris
Mid-season buys. So I was 40th going into the buys. um And looking at my team, so I had 15 premiums, three three rookies and four mid prices. So I was still rolling with Harley Reid. And I still had like a Darcy Wilson that was still floating around. um And I had that Lachlan Sullivan from Collingwood.
00:28:13
Chris
But in terms of my team, like so I'd already got at this stage, shown around ah going into even going to round 11, I had the Heaney, Butters, Flanders in the forward line, and Zorko, so those four ah the four forwards that you felt um confident in. um And then the back line, so I had Sheezle, Whitfield, and then, I probably didn't mention him earlier on, but Dan Houston,
00:28:40
Chris
who is probably ah another one that I think I was probably on an island by myself with him. And I held him through till ah the end, he's by in round 15. So my my back line was basically primo because it was, yeah, so Harry Sheasel, Whitfield, Houston Young, Day Carson Clark.
00:29:01
Chris
Um, and then the midfield wall steel, I had Nick Martin still floating around in the midfield Riley Bonner. I even had a Clayton Oliver, um, for a little bit. Um, so, and I think even and having Tom Powell as well, he was putting up those numbers. Um, it was, it was, my team was pretty much, it was a pretty decent team going into the buys.
00:29:27
Chris
um And I did the i did the bite all the buy planners sort of thing and made sure. So I had 20 available for round 12 and then 23, 23 and 22 and came out of the buys in um ninth place. And I think that first week I had a poor score compared to everybody else and I dropped back.
00:29:52
Chris
ah But then every week after that, I just jumped 20 or 30 spots and suddenly for ASO, the fans have ninth um coming out of the buys.
00:30:01
Holmesy
you are You must have had a pretty strong bench if you were able to get those numbers as well, so you ah you were making sure that you were culling the dead weight at the same time so that you were getting playing rookies and and getting the right premiums.
00:30:01
Chris
ah
00:30:13
Chris
Absolutely. So, I mean, other than Charlie Dean, who was sitting, and Sean Manor, who were both sitting there as as dead ducks, everybody else was and, and Cooper Simpson, unfortunately, as well. He was another one that ended up being ah And that I think it's so handy having the utility role now, um being able to flick things through that as well. So you can have an extra defender, extra mid, that kind of thing. um So yeah, during that buys, and I managed to have, I think I had 18 premiums coming out of the buys as well. So I went in with 15, and each round I'm just adding another another premium.
00:30:48
Chris
um I also did what I think quite a few people may have done, and I did the Will Day Jack Crisp combination. So round 12, I brought those two guys in knowing that I'd be getting rid of them in round 15. In the end, Jack Crisp stayed and Will Day went.
00:31:08
Chris
um So they were big ones. So I think Jack Crisp, 787K, I brought him in and he got three tonnes in a row. um And then I also got Errol Goulden as well. So he'd bottomed out in his, went after his buy. So I think he was, I think he started the year about a mil and then he was down to about 930 odd K when I got him. I think a lot of people would have jumped on him and got you that 150 straight away, which was pretty nice. And getting that, get it, I say Billy Dowling, I mentioned him earlier. So getting him as a rookie, 200 K rookie in round 13 and he was,
00:31:48
Chris
um people it was on people's grounds near the end of the season still and people were getting kissed getting like 80s from him um so again I think it was it was yeah definitely shuffling the decks in terms of making sure I was getting the getting the right rookies in and those Gold Coast ones in close in Will Graham were fantastic just great cash generators. I think one of the things that I've made the mistake in the past is jumping off rookies early because they've made some cash to turn them into like a mid price or something like that. Where unless a rookie is and I think Matt Roberts went through this and in the end I got rid of Matt Roberts because he got that I think he might have got the 30 or something like that 39 the 49 or something like that. But
00:32:42
Chris
I made 400K out of him, and it was just riding his price range. And so you could almost, that that money you could then put, and I went from a Matt Roberts to a Clayton Oliver, who didn't end up doing much.
Maximizing cash generation and rookie trades
00:32:54
Chris
But if you said you could turn a Matt Roberts almost straight into a Clayton Oliver, so I think Oliver was about 100K or so more than, and he was on the back of 106. Then he'd done two tons in a row, so I figured he was to play.
00:33:11
Chris
Um, but it was, it was just holding onto to those rookies and then getting them to their top when they were fully fattened and then moving them on and getting the next one.
00:33:21
Holmesy
Can you just talk me through your process a little bit about how you're picking the right premiums to bring in at the right time? So what do you kind of look at? Do you look at the run coming up? you obviously listen to a lot of content. So the names are all floating out there, but are you looking for, you know, the premium that has, you can see the most value at the time, the best run? How are you sort of going about it?
00:33:42
Chris
Yeah, and mean i think I mean, there was a few ones that I actually probably missed. So I brought Luke Ryan in, for example, after on the back of his buy. um And that was the time where he absolutely fell off a cliff. um but And I traded out Jack Steele because I think he was starting to slow down and he ended up hitting the end of the season really well.
00:34:01
Chris
But it was definitely I going into the buys. I had like a spreadsheet of who I'd ah identified as good players coming out of it. So it was like your Bonton Pelly's, Connor Rosie, I'd picked out Caleb Sarong, Jai Caldwell, Zack Merritt, I just identified. But as I think the the guys that you know are going to score well. But the thing is that they start the season priced at 105, 110 sort of thing.
00:34:31
Chris
And they might start the season slow, but you know that they can average 110 across the year. So it's targeting those guys that you've made your cash because you've you've started off the season with all your mid-prices, all your rookies. And now you can turn those mid-prices and rookies into the bonds, the merits, the day-costs, and all those kind of guys. um But if you would be able to fit them all in at the beginning of the season because you've got obviously got the salary cap. So it's 100%, it's a trading game, and it's a It's looking at the value of the players. You've got Will Day, for example. I think he made me about 80K or something like that. And he was serviceable during that period. And so that 80K, I was able to turn Will Day into Jai Caldwell, who ended up being a top five forward.
00:35:18
Chris
um So I think it's definitely looking at me. I tried the value play of Christian Salem, which was a bit of a disaster. I think he played one week and he didn't even count. And I traded him out the next week.
00:35:31
Chris
um So I even joined the buyers like that.
00:35:32
Holmesy
what i'm What I'm hearing is you're you're human and it's it's giving us hope that you you know you've won the comp, you've done really well, but even you've you've made mistakes and you've you've still just made the right moves at the right time.
00:35:36
Chris
and
00:35:44
Holmesy
So that's that's a good thing for for the listeners and everyone else out there that you can make mistakes and just because you make a mistake doesn't mean you're out of it. But what ah what I'm hearing here is that you're very quick to to fix your mistake as well.
00:35:56
Holmesy
Some of us can be stubborn, like you pick a player for a reason, it doesn't pan out and you think, oh, I'll i'll hold him because he'll come good. but you've had the the IQ to to know, hey, i've I've messed up here and I'm just going to correct this quick smart.
00:36:09
Chris
Yeah, it's very kind of good to say. I think I got lucky as well in the forced trades this year. So I only, I marked down a few forced trades. I think I only had about four or five forced trades this year, which in previous years, that happens more often. So I don't know if I, I mean, I don't think I genuinely went for more durable players. I mean, I had Dan Zorko in my squad from round six.
00:36:37
Chris
ah so Sorry, round four, sorry. and Who would have thought Dan Zorko would play every game from round four? um I think generally like looking at the players I had, the weren like i mean it wasn't a conscious decision, but when you look at them, they're all under 30.
00:36:53
Chris
There's no risk of them getting rest or anything like that. um
00:36:57
Holmesy
except for Zorko, who was 35.
00:37:00
Chris
Exactly. I think as well, like it some of them as well, i think like that midfield that I had once I had all like going along like Caleb Sorong, Golden, Bond and Pelly, Walsh, Merritt, like there's captain theres there's players who are captains or like the go-to players of their teams. um And I listen obviously to Selb and Xavier and I know Xavier is not the best fantasy person, but one of the things he does talk about is when, who do teams want the ball in the hands of?
00:37:31
Chris
Um, especially I think in the distributors back down back, um, in the, and especially in the midfield, like when the whips are cracking, which players are laying the tackles, which players are getting involved. And they're usually the highest fantasy scoring players. Um, so I think, yeah, I think you just definitely look, you look for the value, but you also look for the players who are going to actually be the the top scorers.
Final rounds strategy and trading premiums
00:37:54
Chris
And I think that's the sideways trading later on is.
00:37:58
Chris
Even like so, I did another one week plan with the Tim English. So I can't remember who, I think it was at the Geelong round, I think, that Bulldogs had Geelong. And everyone was like, oh, Tim English is going to go massive. So I went Brody Gunn needed Tim English. And you think you got like a 110 or something like that, but Marshall got the same score as him. The next week I went Tim English to Rowan Marshall. So,
00:38:23
Chris
Two English was literally going to be a one-week play. I hoped he was going to get more than he did, but I knew that Marshall was the one to have for the rest of the season. um And back i just backed I backed myself in that I thought he would be good enough to do it. um Unfortunately, i think yes, I think he didn't quite didn quite score, but the cash that I made from the trend the trade, from Grundy to English, I got Tom Stewart in.
00:38:50
Chris
um who, when he went on that 100-odd run, where he kept scoring 100s in the midfield. um And by that stage, so yeah, around 18, I had 20 players that I always classed as a premium, and that means and I was calling Cherry as a mid-pricer.
00:39:10
Holmesy
So from that then, so that's that's a good segue in. What was your strategy? So you've come out of the bias, you're starting to get to the tail end of the season, because this is something I really want to learn as well. It's the trickiest part of the year when you're up and about, because you've got all these players that have have been so good for you, but just because they've been good doesn't mean that they're going to be the top scorers for that particular round or or moving forward. Like if Caleb's wrong, for example, anyone that started him would have been emotionally invested. He started so well, but when you think about how he actually finished the season, he wasn't really putting up top eight numbers. So what was your sort of strategy on on flipping those premiums and making sure you were getting the right ones in at the right time?
00:39:49
Chris
I absolutely I hate um sideways trading and luxury trading because you you can guarantee pretty much the play you trade out. So I think kind of rosy I got rid of him in round 20. And I think um those pictures you get from the ah um
00:40:10
Chris
on your fantasy wrapped thing. I looked at it and I think it'd be like the players that kicked you on the way out sort of thing. And I think kind of Rosie got 125 on the way out um after I traded him, after I traded him. And Jack Crisp as well. So I moved Jack Crisp on and he to za i got moved that Jack to um Zach Merritt and Crisp got 112. I think he kicked three goals in the first quarter of that game. And it was just, but I think,
00:40:38
Chris
Like you say, I made the decision for a reason. I think the forwards were an absolute punt this year. I think you had the four, so you had the Heaney, Flanders, Zorko, Caldwell. And then I had Dylan Moore and I had Jai Simkin. And Jai Simkin, I think he was, I got him in round 15. And I think he almost was a competition winning pick for me in that,
00:41:08
Chris
he was he was about Basically, it was between him and Billy Dowling, and I was just rotating between them over who I thought was going to score well. um And so there was other people who had Ryan Myers, and every time he did badly, I was just pumping the air because Jai Simkin was getting like 70s and 80s, whereas Myers might get 100 one week and then a 40 the next week.
00:41:32
Chris
um But it's definitely like it's everyone puts out their role in 22s, who's the best, he who's the best players, who's going to score the most. And every week it would be OK. Which player do I not have from the role in 22? Which player is in form? I mean, one of my regrets actually is bringing in Josh Dunkley in because it was. It was between him and Adam Trelaar and I was like, who are bringing her bring in? And speaking of, you know, hamstrings and injuries and all that kind of thing, I i went Trelaar over the better body of Josh Dunkley.
00:42:02
Chris
um And then I but ended up bringing Josh Dunkley in round 23 just to match those around me because everyone else had him. And I was like, if he goes off, I don't have him and it'll cost me. and So that's why I went careless wrong to him. And it was, yeah, there was no, there was no loyalty to players. um Definitely that. Yeah. I mean, I would love to have had Billy Dowling until the end of the season, but I moved it, even moved him on.
00:42:27
Chris
um but yeah it was dead it was It was essentially 21 premiums for the final three rounds because there wasn't a 22nd premium in the forward line, as far as I was concerned. and
00:42:39
Holmesy
So you weren't one of these coaches that that brought in a 23rd premium, I'm guessing that was kind of something, on oh no you were.
00:42:44
Chris
ah no sorry I'm in on the field, though, kind of thing, so you I couldn't field all my midfielders. um so yeah so I mean guess you don't you don't class Simpkin as ah as a premium, but i was I was rocking around with an extra one. so In the final round, for example, I had Bunton Pelly on the bench because I didn't need to have him on the field because I had nine midfielders.
00:43:14
Chris
um And I think that was, I think I got a completed team sooner than I've ever had before. I think part of that, like I was sideways trading from round 18 onwards. I think it's because there was less forced trades. I think the final in my final six weeks, Harry Sheezer was probably the only one that was a forced trade. Everyone else was my decision.
00:43:40
Chris
um even go down to that final round where I brought in Noah Anderson, which was, it was, it was, everyone was talking about him being a top, a top scorer for the round. Um, so it wasn't, it wasn't, wasn't without thought, but it was, on um, I was able to take the swing at it.
00:44:00
Holmesy
So you said you were out of the buys, you were ninth. did you Did you fall out of the top 10 at any stage or you were you around there all the way through to the end?
00:44:04
Chris
Yeah.
00:44:09
Chris
all the way through to the end. And it was, it was literally, it was like eating the elephant. Like I'd be like round, I'd be ninth, then I'd be eighth, then I'd be seventh. And it was each week I was just chipping away. I was looking at the teams around me and there was still quite a bit of differential as well. Um, which, you know, strength in numbers sometimes, you know, you want to be, you want to, you know, you don't, if you've got a, if you've got a player by yourself and no one else has got them,
00:44:38
Chris
And he goes badly, but for me, I just feel like a lot of the players that I had that were different, that were uniques. And I brought Andy Breschau in, and I don't think many in the top 10 had him and for those final five weeks. And he was he was a great pick and I was getting rid of Zach Budders, who everyone had. And I think I'd just seen, that I think Zach Budders was starting to struggle and Breschau was starting to take off. um So,
00:45:06
Chris
Yeah, it was but essentially it was each week,
Climbing the AFL Fantasy rankings week by week
00:45:09
Chris
I'd be chipping away. And even I think, I think going into like the, I think it might have been round 21, around 22. I think the person who was second didn't trade or didn't do their second trade, and they missed that there was a player that was out. So they ended up getting a donor and they dropped back to like four, four fifth. And so suddenly that just took them out of the running. And they actually probably had the best team and they literally missed a rolling knockout opportunity there.
00:45:40
Holmesy
Yeah, right. So talk us through the last round. So wherever you ranked going into the into the last round and sort of talk us through the weekend and and how it all came about with you ending up on top at the at the end of round 24.
Final round strategy and victory experiences
00:45:53
Chris
Yeah, so, ah so I was second going into it. um And it was, yeah, it was pretty nerve wracking. Literally, like I spent all week looking at the trades, looking at the, so, and it was essentially, it was trying to work out. So I think, I think Brady, I think he was third. I think I looked at his team. I think I was like, I think I've got him covered. And I was trying to basically work out. And I said, but I was chatting about it. And we're like, well, what, what's everyone else going to do? Like, what are they actually going to, they're going to bring in and who's actually going to, who's going to roll on Jeremy Cameron?
00:46:31
Chris
um And then what's that second trade going to be as well? um And for me, because I had the extra premium as well, it meant that I could roll through and not have to worry about it. um like i lo and In the end, I looped Nick Daikos, because I knew that everyone else had got him. And I could have, because I had Jordan Clark going into that round, who yeah were talking about sentimentality. So I had him from round two and traded him out in round 24.
00:46:59
Chris
and And Nick Dacos going 150 men, I was like, okay, well, there's no need to have, I think I had seven defenders. So I was like, there's no need to have seven defenders because everyone's got the same backline now, except for, I think there was Nick Newman. I had Nick Newman, the guy behind me had um ah Sicily.
00:47:22
Chris
And I just, I've, I've, I've never had, never had Sicily all season. I didn't, I didn't rate his fantasy game because he he's such a player that can get swung forward or can have to do a job on someone being tall as well. So I was like, looking at the teams around me, I knew, I knew I couldn't get caught by third. It was just trying to work out what Tom had and what he could do and be able to open and try and get him. And I think.
00:47:52
Chris
Close and play Saturday, we had the Heaney drama. um And I had Pete Ling on the bench. So it meant that I had cover for him. And I think Tom ended up going Pete Ling as well, when I think he could have probably gone someone else um and took a bit of a gamble. But he matched me on that one, which reduced, it reduced both of our and ah pods at that stage.
00:48:21
Chris
And the players that I had to win it basically was, I think it was Andy Breschau on the final day. It was Andy Breschau versus, I think he had both Zach Budders and Connor Rosie. And I had, I think someone posted it online, I think, the gaps or what it was.
00:48:46
Chris
I think I was ahead by about 50, I was ahead by, it was half time, I was ahead by 75 points. And I had Breyshaw playing and I was like, well, Breyshaw should at least hole out to one of them and means the other one's got to have a massive final quarter. And so I think I hit the front during that Dockers port game.
00:49:11
Chris
Um, and that was probably the most enjoyable game of the round, even though we lost, um, because but was I was there.
00:49:16
Holmesy
You were there, right? You were at the game?
00:49:19
Chris
Yeah.
00:49:19
Holmesy
you that
00:49:21
Chris
Um, it was, so I wasn't playing on going in a mate text me and he was like, I've got ticket.
00:49:21
Holmesy
Far out.
00:49:26
Chris
He didn't even know I was playing fantasy or something. He just texted me saying, you I've got tickets. I can't make it. Do you want to go? And I was like, This could be a disaster that I'm sitting there watching Dockers Lose and, you know, missing out on the Hilux or whatever. So, like, I was like, oh, why not go? I took my daughter with me. um And it was, we were seeing front row surrounded by some pretty vocal freeo fans as well. And as the game was starting to go on, I was like, oh, my daughter's learning some language here. um And
00:49:58
Chris
But it was the whole game, like watching Brescia get in the marks, get in the possessions and watching the port guys just not get it. um And it was it was not reflecting on the scoreline, obviously Freo losing, but I think and one And then, so obviously, Seld was there as well. And so I messaged him and said, you know let's watch the final quarter or so together. um Because it look cause basically, yeah, I'd done the maths. I was like, there's no way there's no way you can catch me. And it was pretty amazing ah being on the sidelines, because we're in this little area where you can stand on right on the on the boundary. And you can see the poor Adelaide dugouts. And I think it was Butters or Rosie was sitting down because there were a couple of goals up.
00:50:44
Chris
not on the ground. And I was like, there's no way you can win now. And Selb says to me, he goes, mate, that's that's the car. And I'm like, but just this is just unreal.
00:50:54
Holmesy
but I am, I am that jealous because we, we kind of had opposite.
00:50:55
Chris
um
00:50:59
Holmesy
I mean, you've, you've got out and
Mindset and strategic plays for winning
00:51:01
Holmesy
you've held on. Whereas I, I was behind all weekend, but managed to hit the lead on, on Sunday morning and it all came down to the last game and I had, I had one player playing compared to his four.
00:51:11
Holmesy
So I never, I never believed that I was in it. But then all of a sudden, ah a random Collingwood rookie decided to tag Darcy Parrish to the inch of his life and he you just couldn't touch it. And all of a sudden, you get that little bit of hope.
00:51:24
Holmesy
And I still remember it. I still remember it. I was watching the the last minute of the game and I was up by, I think I was up by six. And still side bottom got a mark with 30 seconds to go.
00:51:32
Chris
Oh.
00:51:34
Holmesy
And then Nick Hyne got it with about 15 seconds to go. And i went I went down by three and it was just Yeah, just just the opposite end. But it's, yeah, unreal for you to get it done. And but fingers crossed you can go back to back. We know that it's in the family. It's in the blood. So, I mean.
00:51:51
Chris
and I mean, the thing is, like, talking about what you're saying about perfect seasons or that kind of thing, but the week before um I had Harvey Harrison on my ground and he was always going to get flicked off once I knew um who got a good score. And I suddenly realized I couldn't get, je I couldn't get Jay Simpkins like 80 or something like that. And I had to roll with Peatlings 35. So I already went into the into that, fight I think I went into the final round 40 odd points behind and knowing that 40 odd points were sitting on the bench the previous week. um And I don't know about you and how you played that final week, but for me, like,
00:52:32
Chris
going Noah Anderson and attacking the and going Jeremy Cameron. And in the end, in the end Jeremy Cameron, Jai Simp can score the same score. Who would have seen that coming? um But it was, it was, I was definitely attacking. Whereas if I'd been in front, I might've tried to match and probably gone, maybe not Noah Anderson, I might've gone like a Zack Budders. And so I probably could have lost because there was about a 50 odd point swing between those guys. And I think I won by about 50 odd points.
00:53:01
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think that, I mean, just living through my experience and yours, I think the mentality of being first and trying to hold on is is completely different. I started the last round in fourth with 150 point deficit. i was i was never I was never in the hunt until I was. I've been on record saying that DT Lemon, who was, I think he started in third, he was the best team that year by a mile and and just got unlucky there towards the end. but there is definitely something to, you know, chasing and and and making a play that another coach wouldn't who's just trying to hold on. And so yeah, maybe maybe you got lucky from that point that you didn't hit the lead um come, you know, around 22, 23, 24 and had to play it differently. But we're going to wrap up here.
Conclusion and future of The Holmes Files
00:53:42
Holmesy
Can you just give us your your main sort of learnings from from the year? And maybe it's a little glimpse of how you might plan to to attack 2025 so we know what we're dealing with.
00:53:54
Chris
Well, you you kind of shattered it a bit with the ah the four teams on that one round by because I was kind of hoping to do the same process again, go round zero heavy and be able to to roll with the eight teams. I definitely think, don't be afraid of going those round zero players.
00:54:11
Chris
um they all get the built-in cash gen that the other players aren't going to get. So it's all it's it's ah it's a it's a cash game. If you get an extra 20K on two or three players, I think it's worth a move. um And yeah, I think the old saying, know when to fold and know when to hold, I definitely think you're right. No one knows. Well, like be stubborn on a player who you're backing in and don't don't be stubborn on a player like a, like okay. um Christian Salem. If you don't think he's going to be good for the rest of the year, get rid of them. Don't hold them.
00:54:46
Holmesy
Yep. Love your work, mate. I'll be looking forward to to tracking you throughout the throughout the year. Like you said, it's a once you've been up there and you've done it, it's a whole different ballgame, especially if you you decide to jump on a few podcasts.
00:54:58
Holmesy
Everyone's watching and you can't you can't slide under the radar. But thanks for jumping on, mate.
00:55:02
Chris
Oh, yeah.
00:55:02
Holmesy
I really appreciate it and hopefully we'll we'll get you on a bit more. Just a bit of an update on the Pod Pod, guys. At this stage where, you know, we we don't have anything set in stone, hopefully we'll we'll be back up and running soon. But I i am planning on doing a ah few more of these home files. At least it's a really good opportunity to to deep dive, like I said, with some of the brightest minds in the in the comp. And I get so much out of these podcasts every time I do them. So once again, Chris, thanks for coming on.
00:55:30
Holmesy
Guys, make sure you're following us on X or Twitter. um Like I said, hopefully we'll be back up and running soon and and fingers crossed the Pod Pod will be back stronger than ever in 2025. But for now, goodbye.