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Let's talk FORWARDS! Dunkley, Taranto, Coniglio, Rozee, Horne-Francis, Moore, and... more! | #PODPOD
167 Plays2 years ago
Forwards! There are some seemingly big LOCKS in our forward lines this year, but how creative can we really get? If you thought you had your forwards locked and loaded — think again! Holmesy (2021 runner-up), Stateo (5-time top 100), Lewy (perennial top 500-contender), and Dos (2023 Hilux winner) challenge some conventional wisdom in one of the less stressful lines in 2023 AFL Fantasy.
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Transcript
Introduction and AFL Fantasy Forwards Discussion
00:00:02
Speaker
you
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's your boy Darcy, back on this Friday night, January 20, 2023, talking AFL fantasy forwards. Now, uh, unfortunately a few of us weren't available to record on a Wednesday. I did want to go ahead, grab a couple of guests, you know, have a good time, but no.
Holmsey's Show Importance and Listener League
00:00:40
Speaker
Holmsey said, I am the show. I am the pod pod. We wait till Friday. Holmsey, we've waited. We're here. We're ready to talk some forwards on this glorious Friday night. Is there anything anywhere else we'd rather be, mate?
00:00:54
Speaker
Mate, I believe Stado was also not available, and I said that we were the two draw cards, but also how good is it that we're recording on Friday instead? Real Dream Team's open today, and Stado's just got that smile from ear to ear, the game that he really wants to play is here, so we're good. Yeah, Stado, I do have to remind you, we are not talking about Real Dream Team forwards tonight, but how you going, mate? How's your team building in that format?
00:01:19
Speaker
Uh, didn't even know it was open. So, uh, not too well, Dusty boy. Yeah, sure you did. Sure you didn't. And Lou, how are you mate? Going all right. Ready to talk some forwards. Yeah, good, mate. I can't think of anywhere else I'd rather be right now.
00:01:34
Speaker
except for dinner in about 40 minutes or we're done here. Hopefully it's a quickie. There is, I mean, plenty of forwards to talk about, but before we start, I guess we'll just mention quickly, there's the big news. One player we're not going to be touching on too much, Taran Thomas coming into the news. Don't think we'll be able to pick him as that value 400K forward anymore. Stado, thoughts on this one?
00:01:58
Speaker
Yeah, look, a little bit sad. He's had a tough couple of years. Let's just hope this is the opportunity he gets to straighten himself up because he's got so much talent. Let's hopefully see him on the park at some stage.
00:02:14
Speaker
All right. And by the news, Darcy Cameron, all good back on the track injury free. So we'll mention him a bit later on. I just want to mention just a couple of things. I mean, last week we had a massive response from our listener league entry, new listener league format, which we announced last week. So we had an idea that
00:02:34
Speaker
we're going to be drafting listeners to represent us, each of the hosts in a new listener league. It's pretty competitive. There's only 20 spots, but you've got to pitch us your idea via the review section on Apple podcast. They absolutely came flying through, but I tell you what, I mean, the poll probably told it all state. Oh, we put a poll on Twitter. Who do you want to represent winning gloriously at? I think it was around 38%.
00:03:01
Speaker
was Big Dossy. Big Dossy came in at number one. Any surprises there from your end that Big Dossy came in at number one? A lot of burner accounts there that you've built up over the years, mate, since your draft doctor's days. That's fair enough. But look, we are keen. You can still enter. Second place was Stado. I think he's got a bunch of entries coming through on his side on the Apple podcast. Obviously lots of burners there too. Makes Stado great again.
00:03:32
Speaker
make Stato great again, he's going to run the campaign as well. Homsey though, look, there's been a notable lack of entries for you, mate. Do you want to maybe pitch to the listeners why they should be getting behind you and representing you in this 20 player listener league this year? I mean, it's a bit shy on entries for you.
00:03:52
Speaker
Yeah, look, the term grumpy Kyle has been thrown out there a little bit in the group chat. The boys have been getting stuck into me a little bit, but that's fine. The reviews will come. I'll back it in as we get closer to the year. You do? You want to be on Team Homsey?
00:04:08
Speaker
You know, we haven't gone back to back like Stado mentions. It's been a lean year last year, but all that means is the bounce back is coming. So, you want to be on board, boys? You want to be on board? So, get involved. You're a bit grumpy before 11 call. We got a sign. We're working on it. We're working on it.
00:04:25
Speaker
Now, I think I did announce last week as well that the draft that we have, that'll be happening at the end of Feb, and we'll be able to draft other listeners entries for other coaches here, other hosts. So, Holmsey, you might be able to get a few of Dossy's fantastic coaches that want to represent him anyway, mate. So, all is not lost. You'll be able to snake me for a few of mine.
00:04:44
Speaker
Now, before we start on this episode as well, just a reminder that the keeper league is the proud sponsor of the pod pod. Um, go check them out. Use the code pod pod at sign up on keeper league pod.com and get yourself 20% off your membership. They have heaps of fantastic data. A lot of the stuff that we use on the show, including CBA and kicking trends. You can go check the CBAs throughout the season. They've got a drafty fantasy analysis guide, and I've been having a look through there at some of the rookies that we want to see, including their scores from last year.
00:05:14
Speaker
scoring trends against teams, weekly fantasy projections throughout the season, much, much more all for your classic and keeper leagues and drafts. So get around keeper league, pod, enter code pod pod at sign up for 20% off. Let's get into our players.
Player Moves and Fantasy Impacts
00:05:30
Speaker
We're going to go through the same format we did last week. It's two players each, and then we're going to get to plenty of listener requests, a few less requests in the forward line, but that's the nature of the base. I think there's some big locks and maybe we can start
00:05:42
Speaker
with you Stado on your first play you want to talk about. Yeah to be fair I've been very busy over the last three days running a conference but thankfully when I saw everyone's list there was a certain man missing and he is sitting in F1 for me and that's Josh Dunkley and I don't think it's going to be any surprise to most
00:06:03
Speaker
In fact, I think he's going to be one of the most selected players despite his price. Now the reality, we've probably never seen a full season of the best of Josh Dunkley just because of the amount of midfielders we actually had to engage at Western Bulldogs.
00:06:22
Speaker
I think he just walks straight in and plays that inside midfield role at Brisbane. It's been a bit of a rule over the last couple of years. If you tag Lachie Neil, then Brisbane is gone. All of a sudden you can tag Lachie Neil, but Josh Junkley will keep working really hard and it just improves their side so much. So I'm pretty comfortable that he's going to be F1.
00:06:50
Speaker
and quite happy to spend that investment for Josh Dunkley to be sitting in my team. Yeah, he probably wasn't mentioned by us. I think it's just because he slips the mind. He's that much of a lock for a lot of us this season. Hasn't had the huge center bounce usage at the dogs that he will hopefully get at Brisbane. We assume that he'll get. I want to get your opinion, Louis, though. We had a question actually. I'll just mix it in here. So this one was from Bails on Twitter.
00:07:17
Speaker
He just asked, and I've thought about this too myself, like thoughts on putting a player like Dunkley in the midfield and putting another one of those value forward premiums in. Now, I guess the absence now of a Taran Thomas potentially to pop in there, does that maybe change your thinking or is that something that you've looked at putting Dunkley into your midfield instead of Fordlawn?
00:07:37
Speaker
Yeah, look, I don't mind it. If anything, it's going to give you a little bit of added flexibility, which is always nice, certainly during the early rounds as well. And it's also a way that you can hedge your bets and maybe be able to start an extra keeper on your side. So we've seen some of these forwards.
00:07:55
Speaker
who may very well be keepers and we'll talk about some of them in a bit but for example if you had a Connor Rosie up in your midfield and then you had a bunch of big dogs in your forward line then you're essentially you're sort of hedging your bets hoping that you've got that extra keeper hiding in your midfield there where you might not have been able to get up to a midfielder you know 850k plus where you've actually got that confidence that they're going to be a keeper or that they're going to score because
00:08:22
Speaker
that range of sort of $650 to $800K in the midfield, you start looking at a fair amount of risk there. Yeah, I suppose it comes down to your team structure, right? So if you've got your structure where you like it and you've got that sort of price range of a Connor Rosie to spend in the midfield,
00:08:40
Speaker
In years gone by, like last year, we had a locky Neil who was under priced and could potentially put up top numbers. We've had Patrick Cripps, years gone by, I know Selby had a Mark Murphy, Nat Fife's come in under price and these guys were pretty obvious picks. Whereas I feel this year,
00:08:56
Speaker
in that price range of that sort of 85 to 95, you're banking on a, you know, a Tom Green to break out or a Cherra to break out or an LDU to break out. And we know that a lot of the time this doesn't happen. So if you're not really as comfortable picking one of those guys, then it's definitely a play to put a Connor Rosie in there who you can eventually swing forward, who you're more comfortable in being a top six forward rather than trying to predict one of these breakouts. At least that's the way I kind of see it at the moment.
00:09:24
Speaker
The only one downside that I can think of with that is that, of course, your midfielders do generally outscore your forwards. So if you are playing a forward in your midfield and Josh Dunkley is probably not the right example because we all expect him to go 110 plus, but you could be potentially hamstringing yourself in terms of points because the points are where in the midfield.
00:09:48
Speaker
All right, let's get to our second player, Holmes here. Do you want to take us away, mate, with your first picker up forward who you want to talk about? Yeah, let's let's look at Tim Taranto. So Tim Taranto, it's been well documented that he's moved from GWS to Richmond in the offseason and.
00:10:04
Speaker
And we know what Tim Taranto has historically done, so he's a very good scorer. He's had multiple years going 110 plus. He comes in heavily under priced this year at 95. He started the year as an absolute house on fire and then towards the back end of the year when there was a lot of GWS midfielders, his CBA's dropped, he played a lot of different roles and coming back off that injury as well, put up a few sub-par scores which has lowered his average for us. So what we know is with Tim Taranto,
00:10:32
Speaker
any time that he gets 50% plus CBAs, at least at GWS, he's put up numbers well over 100. I feel like he's a pretty easy pick for us in terms of value. He's 95, he's got the potential to go 100, 105, even 110 plus if he's in the right role. I suppose the only caveat I want to put on it is that he's now going to another team that has a lot of midfielders. Yes, they haven't traditionally scored very well, but
00:10:59
Speaker
at Richmond, you've got Cochin, you've got Hopper, you've got Bolton, you've got Dusty, you've got Prestier when he plays. So there's just still a lot of guys to go through there.
00:11:09
Speaker
I suppose, what sort of CBA splits do we see him getting and is that, you know, if he does get the 50% CBA's in that Richmond system, is he going to be that uber scorer that we need him to be considering they don't traditionally play that sort of chip mark style as much as GWS did. Louis, what are you thinking with Tim Taranto? Do you think it's a slam dunk pick or is there at least some question marks there too?
00:11:33
Speaker
there's question marks as there is with most players but I do think Tim Toronto is one of those fantasy players that almost transcends game style a little bit so I mean we've seen at GWS which has always been a team that's been able to get points on the board accumulatively but he's someone who when he's in that guts his first touch he's a quick hands he gets the tackles and the one thing you probably don't expect from him and what we've already seen winning the 2k time trial is he's actually got
00:12:02
Speaker
Really high fitness base where he can spread and yes, Richmond don't have as many cheap ones available for him But like I said, I think he's one of those players that's just able to find the football They're able to get involved in the game and I think coming in price that 95 I don't I don't think he's gonna go back to his 110 days But I really struggle to see a world where he's not someone who not only presents value, but he's a top six forward for us. I
00:12:31
Speaker
Yeah, I can't add any more. Stado, you on board Tintoreno as well. It seems like we've consensus for the first couple of picks here in Dunkley and Toreno. Yep, thumbs up from Stado. Louis, do you want to take us away with your first pick, mate? Yep, so a little bit on brand these days, but Toby McLean, 401k mid forward, probably a name that wouldn't be on anybody's lips if he didn't play that elimination final last year because
00:13:00
Speaker
He's played very little amount of football in the last three seasons that included two ACLs so give him a little bit of an excuse for that. He played one sole game in 2022 he was predominantly forward but was pushing up the ground pretty hard he got 21 touches and nine tackles for a score of 101 and that's the sort of stat line which we've seen from Toby McLean in the past so
00:13:25
Speaker
We have to go all the way back to twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen when he had a bit more of a favorable role sort of split between midfield and forward and he averaged eighty six and ninety five respectively so with the departures of
00:13:41
Speaker
Josh Dunkley as well as Locky Hunter and Toby McLean being back to full fitness, fingers crossed. Can he have a better role in 2023? Can he replicate his 97 VFL average from five games in 2022? I'm just super interested to see what this guy can come back and do. And if that elimination final is a clue, then I think he's someone who just presents enormous value for his starting price.
00:14:09
Speaker
And I do want to give you props, Louis, because before the elimination final, before we knew that Dunkley was moving out of there, you were massive on Toby McLean, because you were planning your team about halfway through last year. And he was on the watch list. You were telling us about him. You were talking him up. And in a way, I feel sorry for you, mate, because he's just one of the most owned players going around right now, seemingly huge value for us all.
00:14:35
Speaker
Um, God, are we all on the same page again here? I think everyone's nodding again. Yep. I think so. That's why the forward line, there wasn't too many questions. There wasn't a heap going on. It feels like smash picks. I wonder if anything ends up falling through in the end, but, um, no, hopefully Tobin McLean does bounce back and it was awesome to see him firing and after some serious injuries in his career so far.
00:14:59
Speaker
Alright I'm going to talk about my first player who guys I'll let you know he snuck in to the Hilux winning team this week this week actually so that's my team obviously.
Potential Breakout Players in Fantasy
00:15:11
Speaker
Errol Gordon is a player coming into his third year.
00:15:15
Speaker
Who I wouldn't say necessarily exhibits the perfect kind of third year breakout that you're looking for but we have seen and that and by that I mean a clear pathway to say more inside midfield time a clear pathway to more time on ground he's had some pretty good opportunities.
00:15:33
Speaker
and he's in a stacked Sydney team. So I acknowledge both of that. The thing I will say though, we've seen incremental improvement from him both years. He's only 20 years old. He's just getting better and better. And the games that we've seen him explode onto the scene. He has got a huge ceiling, which can make all the difference, especially in the early goings now.
00:15:52
Speaker
Obviously his best game last year 155 points from 33 disposals, 12 marks, 4 tackles. He can hit all stat lines and he hasn't gone to that next level yet in terms of getting the big disposal numbers. So he only averaged around that. I think it was around 19 disposals last year, you know, nearly five marks, three tackles. That's the sort of thing I like to see potential to go those sort of five marks, five tackles.
00:16:18
Speaker
with a little bit more potential midfield exposure on the cards as well. He only averaged, I think it was, what was the centre bounces for him? Barely any, so 10%. Plays that forward roll, bit of a mixture on the wing as well. I just love the way he goes about it. Coming into that third year, I think he can really take a big step up. He's just more of a watch list player and I like him in my team at the moment.
00:16:41
Speaker
because there is a fair bit of risk, but who am I going to throw this to? Stado, you've been a bit quiet tonight, mate. I know you're actually a Sydney man as well. Is there a chance this could be a huge step up in year three for Errol Gooden? Yeah, I've got my question marks on the Swans players. I think row bottom is a big chance to take a jump. I'm just unsure where the time goes. I think Errol's
00:17:06
Speaker
an absolute little ripper. I think he's got a great fantasy game. And I think they'll continue to allow him to play the high half forward role, which I think will be beneficial. My concern here is that role has a ceiling, and therefore I don't know if he can take that next step, it's that question. But if he ends up being one that gets a lot more hashtag mid-time,
00:17:34
Speaker
He certainly has the game that can make him jump into the top six, but I'm not counting on it at the moment until I see how that squad lines up. So there's a lot of question marks, a lot of talent, and maybe too many mouths to feed.
00:17:53
Speaker
Yeah look, I don't think Australian Crawl predicted that Errol Goulden would become an AFL player, but I do get very hesitant over fantasy players that have a song associated with them these days, Doss.
00:18:08
Speaker
I'm out of the loop on this one, I've got to admit. I don't know what you're talking about, but I'll take it as a positive regardless and lock him into my team as a point of difference. Surprisingly, he was actually very, very highly requested in our listener request, so hopefully I'm touching on a subject that a few people are keen on and I wonder if his ownership does end up growing.
00:18:29
Speaker
closer to the season if we see some of those signs of a big third year breakout. Let's go around back to the start and who kicked us off, I reckon? It was Stato. Stato. Make him great again, that's what I say. So I'm going to go really left field here and actually look at someone down the lower end of the market. In fact, a rookie, but this is someone
00:18:53
Speaker
that has real potential and I've had my eye on him especially in the keeper leagues for quite some time but his price is a little bit unavoidable if he does get selected and I'm talking price wise he's 213k
00:19:11
Speaker
So a man with a great fantasy game heading into his breakout third season and just hasn't had the opportunity. But his game is perfect for his club and that's Luke Peddler. So Luke is a bull. Luke gathers a lot of touches. He's also a really good mark for his size.
00:19:32
Speaker
The most important bit in that Adelaide midfield is they don't have really anyone that breaks the lines and this is a player that can burst out of the pack and break the lines. They're very similar in that midfield and although they're fantastic, the reality is they're all sort of similar.
00:19:52
Speaker
and this is what Luke Peddler has got in his third year. There is a chance for a breakout. I see a report Rory Laird sharing only a couple of days that Luke Peddler is training through the midfield and half forward and I think that's the type of role he's going to have probably
00:20:11
Speaker
one of the relievers in the midfield so 20 to 30 percent and the rest of the time on that half forward line. But a burst of pace, good tank can find the footy. I think he might be a great pick up for this year. How are we supposed to make Stado great again if he's out there thinking about Luke Peddler? Kyle, what do you reckon mate?
00:20:36
Speaker
Oh look, I wouldn't be thinking too much about his specific role in the team at the moment, but we always say it every year where the rookie's going to come from, but if he's named around one, he's definitely something we're going to have to look at at 2.16k or whatever he is. He's very cheap and we're going to need players like that, so Stato's 100% right. He's definitely going to be someone to consider.
00:20:59
Speaker
It's probably good for the listeners that he's raised that name that they can put in their little book and keep on the watch list for when he's named around one if that happens. Yeah, I do see the problem here though. Stado, obviously in the demographic, an article has come out on S.E.N. The talented crow who is firing and the potential ready to unfold. Look,
00:21:23
Speaker
that's the article on Luke Peddler that was put out. I will just relay to you his Sandfall averages from last year on the 10 games he played. 7.9 kicks, 4.4 handballs, 2.7 marks, three tackles, and a 51 fantasy average in the Sandfall. That's the state-o type of player, I reckon, coming up to AFL level for about a 30. Good work, state-o. All right, let's move on to our next player. Homsey, you want to take us away?
00:21:50
Speaker
Yeah, another one, Dossie, that you actually scoffed at when we talked about him around Christmas time. But Steven Canelio, so what we know about GWS, it's all been well-documented that Taranto, Hopper, and Bruin have left, which leaves a gaping hole in the midfield, which you would assume that Cogs doesn't really have a choice that he's going to have to be in there a lot. So just looking at his stats from last year,
00:22:15
Speaker
Anytime he had over 50% CBAs, he was essentially a gun scorer, so 50-60% CBAs, he averaged 110. Okay, a few games where he only averaged in the mid-90s for 60-70%, but then if we look at 70-80%, 103, and then anything above 80%, he actually averaged 115.
00:22:36
Speaker
There's definitely meat on the bone in terms of value there. From a 98 price tag in the forward line, you really only need him to improve by, say, five points. If he's a 103 averaging guy from that price point as a forward, he's a slam dunk pick.
00:22:54
Speaker
If we look in the pre-season and he's in there anything above 50% and that looks like to be his role then I think that's another obvious pick. I would be concerned though if he gets anything less than 50% CBAs that's shown for him to be a little bit of a worry zone in the past in terms of when he gets stuck on that half forward line a little bit more so who knows what Richmond are going to do with their new system. I know the Richmond system they like having those guys that play forward and then come in the midfield as well so maybe he does play that role being a 29-year-old but
00:23:23
Speaker
Yeah, anything more than 50% and he'll be locked into my side, no doubt.
00:23:29
Speaker
Now, Louis, I'll get your thoughts on this in a second. I have to correct myself. I see Stadeo, I know he's done the research. Look, I was looking at the 2021 stats for Luke Peddler. So I thought that was off. I've gone onto the fantastic resource that is Keepalig Pod and looked at the State League fantasy scores. Realised I had 2021 in the browser. Look, Luke Peddler, I will correct myself. 14 games, nine kicks, five handballs, four marks, four tackles for a second year breakout of a 69 fantasy average in the twos.
00:23:59
Speaker
Stato, you have my apologies, okay mate?
00:24:02
Speaker
Yeah, but it did include, I think about four 90 scores. Obviously he was plonked up forward for a few of those games, but when he got midfield runs, he had four games with 20 plus possessions. So if he's going through the midfield and the forward, I'm quite happy in a forward line rookie for 213 K that can score a ton, mate. I'm happy. Yeah. You can, you can leave that line. 69, 69. He was saying that he carved up the finals.
00:24:31
Speaker
He carved up the finals, is that what you said, Louis? Yeah, yep, that's according to Checkers on Twitter, so he's pretty across all that. All right, thank you for the stats there, Checkers. Now, we will come back to the question at hand, which was Steven Canelio, Louis. Let's get your thoughts on him as a potential option and taking that bit more time in that midfield.
00:24:54
Speaker
Yeah, I love him, mate. I think he's potentially the top forward this season. Could be 10 points under priced really based on what we've seen, not only last season, but when he has managed to put a full season together and even going back to the 2022 season. I can remember having conversations with all of you guys about whether or not Steven Canelio was now a captain option because he just seemed to be going 125 every single week.
00:25:21
Speaker
like holmes he said if there's 50 plus on the cbas which i think there will be uh with toby green and the acquisition of toby bedford down there as well to take a bit of forward pressure off i think uh colts will be in the mix and yeah he'll be uh he won't be making up the numbers of the forwards that's for sure he'll be right at the top
00:25:40
Speaker
Good to see him get the 21 games under his belt. Yeah, I have walked back my stance a little bit, Holmsey, since we spoke pre-Christmas about Cogs checking out some of those numbers when he does get bulk midfield time. Always been an actual big time truther of the old Cogs back in the day, back when he got his double sin dysmosis. I think I had him in my team both those times. So, yeah, definitely not a fan of Cogs. But let's move on to the next player, Louis, that you're going to talk about.
Top Fantasy Picks and Roles Analysis
00:26:09
Speaker
Yeah, so low hanging fruit a little bit, just like Doc last week, but Connor Rosie. Look, this guy has already been spoken about tenfold, even before last season, sort of finished. But and we've spoken about it on this podcast this preseason, lots of other podcasts have as well. So I'll just outline why this guy is relevant. And it's because one, he's got that mid forward status, which quite a few people didn't think he would hold on to.
00:26:37
Speaker
And two, he's finished to the 2022 season. So, post-buy went at 101.5, which could be a sign of things to come. Obviously went into that midfield during the Carlton game, provided something and pretty much stayed in there for the rest of the season.
00:26:53
Speaker
You'd expect he's going to be in there again this season. I think his usage will be quite high. The only concern that I've got is that he's probably the number one tag target. And with Brisbane up in round one, that might be a bit of a rough start, but.
00:27:09
Speaker
That all being said, I also think that he's going to be able to put enough runs on the board to be a top six forward or near enough. So coming in at that 88 average, he still does present some value. I'm just maybe not as hot on him as some others, but in the same breath, I could I could see him going 105 as well.
00:27:29
Speaker
Yeah, Conor Rosie's, as he said, been talked about all over. This case scenario? Many of us would have had him in our team to the back half of the season and seen just how much of a dominant player he can be in that midfield. Stado, you locking in Conor Rosie as well? No. No, I'm not locking him in, Doss.
00:27:47
Speaker
Yeah, I'll sort of keep an eye on it. I just don't know what's going to happen to be honest, but I see the massive potential. So certainly I'm not putting a line through him. I'm just keeping an eye. So I think of Conor and it's amazing we can get these biases that come through. But I see him as a high quality player.
00:28:12
Speaker
But I also seem extremely talented in the forward line, so how much time would he potentially spend there? But I also see him as an injury risk. And I don't know how real that is, but yeah, that's what I see at the moment. So I'll wait to see how the preseason goes, how the preseason games go.
00:28:33
Speaker
very clearly one of their absolute main midfielders then, you know, I've got to reconsider. But my thought is I'm going in with a big three and we've mentioned them already. I'm taking Cox, Taranto and Dunkley as my three. If I end up having money for a fourth, that's probably when I bring Connor in.
00:28:56
Speaker
Just speaking about watching how the pre-season unfolds, I was speaking to somebody at Port Adelaide last week and I asked about Connor Rosie. I'm not really expecting much and he wasn't in my team beforehand but I've got to say it was a pretty glowing review and he made his way into my team shortly after that. So tearing up the track by all accounts, BOG. So he is a lock then, Louis. I was miss listening but he is a lock then for you then, Lou.
00:29:25
Speaker
No, he's in and out. He's probably one of about three players that constantly get shuffled. All right. Well, I'm going to bring up my next player, which again was a fan of the people wanting to hear about this guy. And I'll get your thoughts, Kyle, afterwards, because I know you love to rebut all my players that I bring to the table. But here's Dylan Moore.
00:29:47
Speaker
of the Hawthorne Football Club, 23 years old and coming after his career year to date last year, averaging 93 points off every single game. 84% time on ground, did a bit of everything. Again, that lovely spread of stats. He had 20 disposals a game, nearly six marks, four tackles. We love that spread. We love hitting all those stat lines.
00:30:11
Speaker
he just does it all Dylan Moore and he's got that ceiling as well so he's had some monster games in the hundreds plus and then of course if you recall last season towards the end of the season started getting center bounce attendances which was just a natural progression for him he is kind of like yeah I mean I think I've compared a couple of players this guy but I think he's the clear one
00:30:33
Speaker
like a Dane Zorko type, just that sort of smaller nuggety bloke that just has speed to burn, cracks in like no one else. And I just love watching him play for Hawke. So coming in the back half of the year after the buy started getting involved in center bounces, had a little nibble after the buy straight away, like 10% plus, then towards the back end of the year, he was coming into our sides just off the back of that consistent midfield time.
00:30:59
Speaker
60, 61, 50 plus percent back end of the year. Look, the last couple of rounds he dipped again and I personally think that was just the Hawks experimenting. I think he is a big part of their midfield and we have, you know, Jagger and Mira
00:31:14
Speaker
and Tom Mitchell leaving the Hawks, we're wondering who's going to fill the void. Surely Dylan Moore is one of those players that comes in, given the rest of the lack of experience at the club. You've got your John Newkins and stuff who are yes, 21 years old. Josh Ward, who's 20 years old or 19. Dylan Moore, 23 years old. I feel like he has to have at least a place in that midfield. And then therefore,
00:31:41
Speaker
has a fair bit of upside, even though he averaged the 93 points. Holmsey, would you agree that Dylan Moore, he's only owned by 7% of the comp right now, definitely a point of difference, but is there value there, do you think?
00:31:53
Speaker
Yeah, look, I suppose the key word that you used was experimenting. So I'm not sure we're going to get huge consistency from the Hawks midfielders this year, being that young rebuilding side. If he was someone that we could guarantee would get 60% plus CBAs every single week, then yeah, you can definitely look for him to be that sort of undervalued guy that could potentially push, you know, 95 to 100 across a full season. But I...
00:32:19
Speaker
There's just something about him that I'm a little bit tentative. I think, like I said, if you can guarantee that role, but he's very damaging forward of center. And if he starts the year like he did before in terms of being more of a half forward and then getting little bits of CBAs, then if he pushes back down towards that 88, 90 average from his starting point, then he's going to be a bit of a bus pick because he's not going to be a top six forward and he's actually going to lose value for you. So you'd really need that consistent role, which I'm not sure
00:32:48
Speaker
He's going to get at Hawthorne, but like I said, if he was guaranteed that 60% CBA role, then 100% his value and everyone we should look at. So it's just going to be a watch in the preseason. But if you are picking him, you want him for the year and you need to ask yourself if that role is going to be consistent for the whole year.
00:33:07
Speaker
Yeah, he's tough to get a read on. It sort of feels like he's got a bit of a false economy about him. So, you know, everything that you see from last year and heading towards the end of the season sort of points up and you sort of think, oh, he's got that natural trajectory. He's going to take that next step. But I suppose the variable in all this is Sam Mitchell being a new coach is going to take risks. And I think things will be volatile. So while starting him at 93,
00:33:35
Speaker
I think doesn't present value, but it's probably a fair price. I also think that if he does get stiffed on the roll early, that that could be something that's just covered in danger and he could throw up a 75 average and then all of a sudden you're behind the eight ball.
00:33:50
Speaker
I suppose you just need to ask yourself, is he going to be someone that's going to burn you? So is he going to be someone that comes out averaging 105, 110 for the first, you know, six games of the season and you're really chasing tail to get him in? Or if there is a little bit of upside and he does go towards that 100 mark, is he an upgrade target that you can get onto around the buyers? So that's that's where I kind of see it with Dylan Moore at the moment.
00:34:14
Speaker
I think it's, I actually personally think it's almost a guaranteed upside, but whether or not he has the upside to pick him at the start is what I'm questioning. And look, 17% said about the tendencies last year. Who do they have to fill that spot? That's what I wonder. You've got Jago Mira's gone, Tomich was gone. You've only got Newcomb.
00:34:35
Speaker
ward, like who else? That's just it. Like Sam Mitchell may as well have a throw at the stumps and chuck the kids in there and see how they go. He's a kid. He's 23.
00:34:45
Speaker
Like what? You're not going to build on his potential as well. He's the game winner. He's the guy, the kind of rosy like game winner for you when they've also got Mackenzie, they've just picked up, they've got Ward, they've got McDonald. There's no shortage of elite mids that they've picked out of the draft. So look, it's impossible to argue this because we don't know what direction Sam Mitchell is going to go in. But I think that's the main concern on, on why people would be hesitant on him is because it's just, you can't read that situation.
00:35:13
Speaker
So I put my 2 or 20 cents worth in. It sounds like a really dossy pick to me. He's played 10 games in the twos last year at an average of 51. If fake news works on my players, then might as well work on yours. Mate, stay no great again. Fake news. Jesus, mate. Leaning into the wrong corner, I think.
00:35:40
Speaker
Just to reiterate though. That's why you won the poll. They're all over Twitter, not a fan. After the buy, just to reiterate, 101 point average as well, just given those extra centre-bouts of tendencies.
00:35:57
Speaker
Anyway, the listeners wanted to hear it. I am the man of the people, so I delivered for them. Now, let's hear what else they've got to request here. We've got just four listener requests, basically the big names. Darcy Cameron, who we didn't touch on.
00:36:13
Speaker
Let's talk about him. A guy that got a lot more ruck time last year in the absence of Brody Grundy. Now Grundy's off to Melbourne. Can Darcy Cameron be a guy that we can look at, Kyle? There was a bit of injury concerned the other day at training. Like we said, he's back in action by the sounds of things and still may be putting his hand up in that frame of the same sort of price as your Connor Rose in that 750 kind of bracket.
00:36:37
Speaker
Yeah he's an interesting one so there's a fair amount of data on him now so what we know is that when Grundy went down in round six last year from round seven onwards Cameron averaged 93 and that included a few stinkers towards the end of the year where you know let's face it he was getting tired it was the first year where he's really shouldered a fair amount of the ruck load and it's quite tough on
00:36:59
Speaker
And let's not call him a young ruckman because he's 26, but it's a tough position to play full time when you're first getting started. So you would think with another preseason under his belt, the confidence of being that main man, you would hope that he can go replicate that 93. And if he does replicate that 93, then
00:37:18
Speaker
he's going to be a good pick for us. He's going to be someone that presents value as a forward, being pretty close to that top six forward, and then you can look to see who you want as an R2, or who knows, he may even go better than that. So he's definitely someone to consider. It's just always tough with these ones. With the rock, all it takes is a little injury here or there, and you never really know. But like Louis likes to say, you can't really predict an injury. So from everything we've seen from around seven onwards last year, he's definitely someone we need to look at.
00:37:50
Speaker
Okay, next player. God, I don't even want to talk about him just about. We've heard way too much about this guy in the preseason. Look, I've got to be honest. I haven't been tuning into any fantasy podcast this year because as I've said many times, I've got the lux in the bag. I don't need to listen to anyone else's advice.
00:38:09
Speaker
But honestly, it's been the least content I've consumed, but I've seen so much stuff on the socials about this bloke, and I'm talking about Sam Flanders. Make Sato Great again has been the biggest campaigner of this bloke for many years, but I don't want to talk about, I'm sure we've got plenty of opinions from Sato over on the other channels at The Draft Doctors. Louis, let's hear from you, mate. As a classic option, he's being thrown out there, a bloke who
00:38:35
Speaker
I like Braden Feoreni and Charlie Constable and probably Connor Blakely this year is banished to the twos under Stewie Jew. Does this bloke actually get a gig this year? The first question.
00:38:47
Speaker
I was really hoping you wouldn't throw to me for this one. Is he cheap in supercoach? Is that why talk is sort of coming over to the fantasy community here? Because he's over 500K in classic. That's a real awkward price with what we've actually got available to ourselves in
00:39:09
Speaker
In the forward line, in fact, I'd probably rather take a punt on Tyron Thomas than I would start Sam Flanders. Draft relevant, maybe. He was a fantasy scoring gun, but I'm not sure the role is going to be there for him to replicate it, and certainly not at $508K. If he was coming in priced at around the $300K, you might throw a ball at the stumps, but it's just far too awkwardly priced.
00:39:35
Speaker
perfect player to take a swipe at late in drafts but in salary cap formats when you have limited trades is far too risky being on the the fringe best 22 at the Gold Coast so not someone I would ever really look at to be honest.
00:39:49
Speaker
Before we go to the defender, the San Flanders defender in Stado, I just want to also throw out there. I bet ya, if we look at the fantasy numbers from the VFL Suns versus the Gold Coast actual AFL team, the VFL Suns would be one of the best fantasy scoring teams going around on the planet versus the Gold Coast actual AFL team who are way down the bottom, only above North Melbourne last year for fantasy points. They hate fantasy scoring at the Suns. Stewie Jew's not a fan. I will say though,
00:40:19
Speaker
Looking at the stats again on keypleagepod.com, looking at these state league fantasy scores, 117 average in the VFL last year for Flanders, obviously can play good footy when given a role in a good fantasy scoring team from 12 games. Finish the season in the finals, the final three games in his finals campaign, 157, 151, 161. Stado, give us your best shot at defending this man. Yeah, I'm all in. I'm Flanders. Classic? Classic?
00:40:49
Speaker
He's 500k so no. Honestly, I've been on Flanders for about three years so I'm really keen to see him break out. It's one of those picks, now we'll say he's killing it in pre-season and there's been that many references that have started in early December of how well he's actually tracking
00:41:13
Speaker
and only two days ago it was reported that he's working with the midfield group. The problem is they've got a lot of names in that midfield group but the reality is if he's in there and he's got a permanent role and he's good enough for this, he's very highly touted and we know he can get the footy
00:41:32
Speaker
And unfortunately, like the list of players you talked about, this man's actually got skills. He can hit targets. He can hit hard targets, Dossie Boy. So this is the one for me. But as the boys say, he's more of a draft player. And it's because he's 500k and been there abouts.
00:41:54
Speaker
Does he have the potential if absolutely everything goes his way to be a top six forward? The answer is yes, but boy it's risky because he's got to work against three or four high quality.
00:42:13
Speaker
If he kicks out Raoul from the centre, so it's Anderson, Raoul and Took, then he's a top six forward. But the chances of that happening is probably pretty thin. Anderson, Flanders and Took, I believe you meant, but yes.
00:42:29
Speaker
Yes, that's very, very low chance. And I actually debate, I reckon Alex Davies has more centre-bouncer tendencies than Flanders does. Yeah, he could do. And there you go. That's why there's a lot of competition. But this is why I think Gold Coast is starting to really build a solid list. I don't know. Does Charlie Constable go and look in there, Dolph? No.
00:42:50
Speaker
I wish. I wish. Connor Blakely, Jed Anderson, she either got depth. I just, the moment Constable, who, if you know me, you'd know he is just one of my absolute, like, surprising there's not a song about him already. The moment he went to the Suns, like, my heart just sunk. It was both my boys just trapped, trapped in the NFL for life.
00:43:16
Speaker
All right, Kyle, we haven't heard from you from a bit. You need to get your voice out there. You need some listeners voting for you, mate. We need to hear that beautiful voice of yours and we need to hear about Zach Budders. Would you like to talk about him? The listeners would like to know about Zach Budders and if he's worth picking.
00:43:32
Speaker
Yeah, he's an interesting one, does he? So, all the talk this year has been about Connor Rosie, but if you actually look at Zack Butter's last six games, albeit very small sample size, they're very, very comparable. So, I think he went at 106 for his last six games, but the thing that kind of concerns me a little bit about Butter's is that in that six game sample size, his CBA's were only around that sort of 40%, maybe even a little bit lower. So,
00:43:58
Speaker
Is the consistency going to be there? I'm not too sure, but in saying that, it's probably about time that boke starts to shift out of that midfield a little bit. We know that Wines is coming from a long way back this pre-season after a few off-season surgeries and building his load.
00:44:14
Speaker
You know, if Port Adelaide do go down that path and it's Rosie, Butters, JHF and Wines and his CBAs are around that sort of 50 to 60% mark, he's always been that one that we've sort of predicted to end up being that fancy stud with the way he plays, he tackles, he marks, he gets on the outside, he gets on the inside.
00:44:35
Speaker
If Louis is correct and the tag target starts to go to Conor Rosie, then Butters could be a sneaky good pick for us at a similar price point. So he's definitely someone that I will look at in the preseason and see what kind of a role he has because he's always had the potential.
00:44:52
Speaker
Clearly the listeners are Stado fans, two of his boys back to back here. Yeah, so making Stado great again. But Stado, what do you think on Butters being another big fan of the guy? I haven't heard too much of you about him lately, and I think you even might have jumped off the bandwagon last year a little bit. Frustrated at the injuries, the inconsistency.
00:45:14
Speaker
Still a fan or I'm still a big out of the books and I'm gonna be butters crazy. All his career. There's no doubts about that. But the way he plays is risky and there's no doubts that injuries. I'm forcing him to be part of his career.
00:45:34
Speaker
But one day it's going to click. To be quite honest, Zach Butters is a brown low candidate. So if it all clicks, has the right role, is injury free, he's a brown low candidate. Love the way he plays. The reality, go back
00:45:55
Speaker
I'm looking for value so I know who F1 to F4 is. The problem with both Connor and Zach is the mouths to feed and how much time they have in the midfield, but they both have high ceiling potentials.
00:46:13
Speaker
One of the other things we probably didn't mention, the way he plays is just so conducive to injury. He's just so hard at it and he just puts his body on the line so much to do those amazing things. That's just the risk.
00:46:28
Speaker
biting your nails what you can play despite how good he is but, Kyle, what have you got to wrap this up on Butters? I just wanted to ask Louie being the Port Adelaide man, obviously take this with a grain of salt because it's just pre-season articles but if Fantasia does get up and they have recruited Willy Rioli as well, do you see that as a more of an opportunity for Butters and Rosie to spend more time in the midfield knowing that they've got, you know, those more small forwards down there now?
00:46:55
Speaker
Well, first of all, it's a massive if for Raziel Fantasia. I saw they've got, they had open training today and they used Raziel Fantasia's picture and I thought, gee, just come out to open training and see this guy. It'll probably be the last time you see him this year.
00:47:10
Speaker
But no, I think those two, if they do play regular footy in 2023, I think that does alleviate Butters and Rosie to push up the ground and play midfield or play somewhere in between the forward line and the midfield where they can rack up a bit of loose ball. It's a bit of a flip of a coin between Rosie and Butters and who averages more.
00:47:35
Speaker
They're both guns I wouldn't be surprised if both are on the edges of the top six forwards They're both coming in at value as well. They're very similarly priced If you if you are flipping a coin, honestly, I would just pick the one that you like watching the most from a football standpoint We're gonna pick balance in
00:47:56
Speaker
Well, there's one last player who we could throw him into the mix of players that, hey, might be forward or might be midfield in new colours at Port Adelaide, Jason, Horn, Francis. I've already seen a bit of the Sam Flanders-esque propaganda going out there from Cal Toomey, I think, was tweeting about there, a little bit of open training. You said, Louis, going out there, checking out the new scars on the knees.
00:48:21
Speaker
Plan a bit of midfield by the looks and looking real thick and strong to start this season I know homesy has a big big take on our horn Francis, which we were talking about pre-show and I'm glad to throw this one to you, mate classic option horn Francis at 553 K
00:48:40
Speaker
Yeah, so he's an actual, a really interesting player. So number one draft pick could not have had anything more go wrong really at North Melbourne in his first season. A few injuries, the off field drama was well documented. So coming in priced at 62, now these guys are completely different players, I get it. But this is that kind of second year breakout potential.
00:49:04
Speaker
that makes it a little bit easy for us so because of last year he's got that forward status meaning that the bar is not as high for him to get to to be closer to the top six so if he's someone that you can see getting a bit of midfield time and pushing that 80-85 mark then he's definitely someone we can look at think of
00:49:22
Speaker
Now, you're going to love this Dossie, but a Jaden Stevenson two years ago, not last year, but two years ago when he was priced at 60 and he ended up going 80. I think it was 83. He was that perfect player in our forward lines that presented enough value to get close enough to the top six. So, JHF is 28 times the player that Jaden Stevenson is. So, if he's someone that's fit and firing and he's got a good role in that Port Adelaide midfield, you'd be stupid not to have a look.
00:49:50
Speaker
I'm not saying he's a lock by any means, but he's definitely someone that we should have a look at in the preseason and see how he's tracking because like I said, the bar's not as high and we know he's got all the talent in the world.
00:50:01
Speaker
Stado, your thoughts on that one, mate? Yeah, it's just the price point that that's the issue. That's the reality. But look, he could be anything high quality player. And we know he's going to be fantastic. We haven't heard too much on preseason. We might know a little bit more. But look, second year true breakout. Certainly this is the type of player that's got the potential to do that.
00:50:32
Speaker
Yeah, I just don't get the impression that Port are going to rush this guy. So I don't think he's going to be someone who goes straight into the midfield and plays massive minutes. I think he'll be split between that, what the percentages will be. I'm not sure. But Port have made a large investment in this guy. He's had off-season surgery, which wouldn't have been ideal for them, albeit probably not an injury that we have to worry about too much. But I think with the investment Port's made with him, he's a big part of their future. I don't think they'll be
00:51:02
Speaker
I'll be sort of tearing down his body too quickly this season. I will say just that the tweet I mentioned is Cal Toomey said obviously over in sunny Adelaide at the moment gun port recruit Jason Horn Francis has returned to full training this week.
00:51:18
Speaker
and been involved in match play after his surgery on both legs in October, the 19-year-old looking dynamic and strong, going to be an exciting midfield mix with Jason Horn-Francis, Rosie Butters-Wines. And then he chucked in a few photos as well, saying he was laying some big tackles and sporting some scars. I don't know if you guys saw the scar of photography though. Yeah, did see that. Some hectic, aggressive scars on the back of the legs there.
00:51:44
Speaker
Yeah, an interesting pick. I don't think, yeah, is that awkward price just a watch list for us? That was the last of the major listener requests. There was a popular segment last week though that will rush through some players. It is Lux or Sucks. We'll be when you know how you're Lux, or do they just suck?
00:52:16
Speaker
Lucks or sucks, we got five players. No one near as many as last week. Starting off with Cam Rayner, Louis. Is this a pick that is going to win you the Lucks or does he just suck?
00:52:27
Speaker
No, sucks. What's he priced at out of interest? Do you have that on your dose? I can get that for you mate, but maybe just talk me through a bit of it. It's too high. First. It's too high. Look, he came in under price last year when people were keen. He didn't deliver on that. 570K.
00:52:44
Speaker
Yeah so he's another what two hundred k above what he was last year they've got another midfielder yeah don't play running through there it's just not enough opportunity for him that's the thing he needed me time if he was gonna break out don't click couldn't come there on. Tana brune landing at a new location at the cats.
00:53:04
Speaker
Holmes, he likes or sucks. Yeah, no, that's a sucks, Dossi. We know that Geelong like to switch things up, play players in different positions, players in and out of the best 22. I don't think you have a consistent role for him to push the numbers that we need him to. Probably wins the Falcons, BNF, I reckon. Josh Richelli, Adelaide Crowe, chance of a little sneaky bit more midfield time in year two, potentially. Stado showed some glimpses, 461K.
00:53:33
Speaker
Although it's harsh, Lux or Sucks? Sucks. Sorry. He's going to be high, high-end quality player. He's going to be fantastic in people league, but no. He sucks. To be clear, the sucks is just for classic picking them, not that they are sucky player. They're obviously great players. Correct. Decent players anyway. Ben Hobbs. Essendon. Is there room for him to have that magical second year breakout, Louis? Lux or Sucks?
00:54:03
Speaker
sucks they've got a lot of midfield depth there and i just didn't see anything in his first year to suggest that he's going to have that massive jump up to be that second year breakout which we'd need him to be yeah you'd see more opportunity from that from a guy like horn france a similar price 541 k is ben hobbs so
00:54:22
Speaker
It's pretty awkward, although he does have a huge fantasy pedigree as a junior and showed some pretty big signs last year. Another Essendon player in the mix for our listeners, they want to know about Archie Perkins. I think I saw, was it Cam from The Draft? Somebody posted out there about Archie Perkins. 527k though in your classic format.
00:54:43
Speaker
Lux or Sucks, homie? Sucks, just for the same reason that Louis said. A lot of midfielders, I can't see him going in there enough to really have the consistent role to push those numbers that we need him to. All right. That's all we had. I want to throw in one more. Harry Himmelberg, Lux or Sucks? Sucks. Too much question marks about role?
00:55:10
Speaker
Yeah, it's one big watch for the preseason and what his role is because yeah, potentially he's, likes potentially he sucks. So I think he's probably somewhere in between and I'll just pass on picking him in that headache. We've somehow managed lads to pump out 55 minutes on the forwards. I think that's, everyone deserves a medal for that one. That's pretty big effort.
00:55:32
Speaker
Out of interest, though, like, homesy for you, say, has it been a bit of a bit of a headache or is it like, because for me, it was one of the easier lines just that we've got those big dogs, pretty obvious picks. But I mean, sounds like there's a few more options than I thought listening to this show, to be honest, that we're actually keen on.
00:55:48
Speaker
To be honest, the major headache for me has been how many of these guys that we start. So from all that we've gone through, a lot of them have upside. A lot of them seem like they're slam dunk picks. So it's how many of these guys that you start in the structure, that's been more of a headache than who to actually start.
00:56:07
Speaker
Yeah. All right. And just a reminder before we wrap up, everyone get your listening league entries in, head to Apple, get your girlfriend's phone, mum's phone, whoever's got an Apple, enter those reviews, leave your rating and you choose which coach you want to represent and give us your reason why. Give us why we should be drafting you, which we'll be doing at the end of February.
00:56:28
Speaker
We're gonna pick five players each have a 20-man draft go head-to-head and you'll be representing us We'll have some sort of prize for the overall Winner in that league of the the coach that the host that gets the most there Also, of course sign up to keep a leg if you use the code pod pod on checkout you get 20% off Guys, who are we gonna touch on next week? Let's give it to state. Are we gonna talk midfielders, mate? What do you reckon? Are we gonna go the rocks?
00:56:53
Speaker
I think we go midfielders. Let's do the worst. Let's have a fast. All right. Midfielders it is. We'll see you next week.