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The Points of Difference to WIN AFL Fantasy! (Early Edition) | #PODPOD
556 Plays10 months ago
Dos, Holmesy, and Harmey skip family brunch to reveal their top points of difference (PODs) at this early point in the AFL Fantasy season.
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PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Dos: @HKdos
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's ya boi Dossi here talking all things AFL fantasy this Wednesday morning.
00:00:27
Speaker
December 27th, 2023. Hope you've all had a fantastic holiday season, but we thought we'd just escape the family's fur just a little bit to talk some fantasy footy with our good mates, the Pod Squad. Joining the chat today, we have two, two time top 10 finishes in Kyle Holmes and John Harmy.
Holiday Season Recap and Fantasy Updates
00:00:49
Speaker
I'll start with you, Holmesy. Good Christmas, mate.
00:00:52
Speaker
Yeah, not too bad, Dusty boy. Always good to spend a bit of time with the family and yeah, back to it now and looking forward to starting to really dive into this preseason with the new year and moving on. Couple cheeky checks of the phone over the break, mate, just to update the fantasy squad at all.
00:01:12
Speaker
Ah, team's actually pretty set, so I'm sure there'll be an injury in the next week or so, so every time I think that it's looking good, something happens. No fantasy over the Christmas break, Dossie.
Low-Ownership Players and Early Picks
00:01:26
Speaker
Yeah, so Hammy, your team's set as well, just like Holmes, you reckon, his squad's done for the year. He's ready to go, mate. Ready for... Well done, Holmesy. Paddy Dow, Thompson Dow, M1, M2. What else do you need? I'm far from it, Dossie boy. I have been flicking a few things around because I'm still battling with this bloody four-liner backline, to be fair.
00:01:53
Speaker
Yeah, it's a tough time in the world of fantasy, looking at those two lines. But look, this show is all about a bit of fun. Obviously, we don't have Lou or the Statesman on this one, but we wanted to touch on a few early, and we are early, obviously late December still. So if you're listening to this a little bit later, yeah, look, these points of difference may not be points of difference anymore, but that's what we're looking at.
00:02:16
Speaker
Low ownership players that could be great starting picks in your team so I mean by the by the time round one's rolling around or should I say opening round these guys are probably owned by majority of the competition if we've got our predictions anywhere right here but we're gonna be talking about some guys that we think could be options in your team that may be a little bit surprisingly low ownership or even some of those studs that are looking at low ownership that.
00:02:42
Speaker
Maybe you could get a jump on the competition, but first of all, I want to get to some hot topics since we last left you, which has been about 20 odd days since our last podcast. Lots has happened just at our last podcast. The game hadn't quite been released yet.
00:02:57
Speaker
memory serves but they had announced what the rules were gonna be heading into the year obviously the opening rounds not gonna count that we're gonna start around one and we had some very early takes on on what we thought we I think the consensus was that we were all pretty happy with.
Rule Changes and Strategy Shifts
00:03:12
Speaker
with the way that the fantasy format had played out but since then i think maybe we thought a bit more about those strategies that we you know with brainstorming on the spot in that podcast and i kinda wanna just go around the show now and we'll stop you home see like have have your thoughts changed since that show maybe recap your thoughts and you know what you're thinking about now with these extra. Buy rounds early on what you're doing with those sort of players and how your structures sort of shaping up since that show.
00:03:40
Speaker
Yeah, well, one thing that wasn't clear when we were talking about that show is how that initial price rise was going to be. But it's since sort of been, well, I'm pretty sure confirmed that those players that play in round zero will get that double price rise after round one. So the break-evens will change from that round zero game.
00:03:58
Speaker
Which means that your rookies and mid prices from those round zero teams are going to be quite valuable if they're having that extra price rise. So someone like a Kitty Coleman that we thought maybe we'd be able to wait on if he's only going to have that one price rise. Well, it's actually going to be two price rises.
00:04:15
Speaker
You know, rather than jumping potentially 40 to 50 K, maybe he jumps 80 K in those two weeks. And if you do wait, you might be a little bit behind the pack. So still still in the camp that you probably need to not start any uber premiums from those at least round two or three by teams.
00:04:34
Speaker
But yeah, with your value players, your mid prices, and your rookies, there's definitely scope to start them.
Mid-Prices and Fantasy Squad Options
00:04:40
Speaker
And even your round five or round six buy players, if they are mid prices, there's plenty of price rises between the start and their buy that you can even trade them at their buy and get up maybe on an early upgrade. Yeah, those are some good takes. And something that wasn't 100% clear last time when we were chatting in the show. Hami, have you got any different takes, or are you on the same board as Holmes either?
00:05:03
Speaker
Yeah, similar to Kyle. I'm probably looking to avoid anybody who's, I don't know what you're saying, 800,000 or higher that have those early buyers.
Player Categories and Ownership Trends
00:05:14
Speaker
So I'm pretty keen. So people like Sam Walsh who I do like as an option, I'm trying to get him out of my team at this point in time. So yeah, that's probably one thing.
00:05:26
Speaker
Yeah, just something else that we spoke about before was the mid prices may not mean as much this year given you got best 18 for a lot of those early rounds as well.
00:05:37
Speaker
Yeah, I think similar thoughts from me really, not too dissimilar, but I'm still just looking to minimise any of those, any of those players, aside from, yeah, maybe, maybe the thing that has changed a little bit is thinking a bit more about those, those mid prices that you mentioned, like your Kitty Coleman's or I suppose even the Taylor Adams. I mean, he's got like five, you know, you've got five rounds to play with there, with the Sydney, with the Sydney players where you can sort of get a few price rises and it might be worth it, Carl.
00:06:05
Speaker
So, tell me if the mid prices aren't going to be as important this year for best 18, who are you going to pick in your forward line? Six rookies?
00:06:15
Speaker
Yeah, if you've got six available, maybe. There should be a few in the Ford line, so I guess we'll see how many get named around one. Aaron Cadman, baby, get around him. Although, yeah, I suppose he's got the early guy as well. All right, let's get into our points of difference. So I think it's probably the interesting thing about the points of difference at the moment as well is that at this time of year, you don't have
00:06:44
Speaker
Your full list of fantasy players that are going to be playing the game i mean i don't know what numbers were out in terms of registrations but you know this would be the hardcore players that are registered already at the moment so i feel like a lot of the ownership numbers right now are pretty indicative of where.
00:07:00
Speaker
Maybe the more experience coaches or those top end coaches are kind of looking at and some of those points of difference maybe are sort of like players that are being talked about much in the in the fancy either but that may rise when you sort of more casual player jumps on board and.
00:07:17
Speaker
Maybe some of those players with new colors, new team colors and stuff rise up a bit as well. We also see a massive change in the ownership numbers after round one when those auto-generated teams, like if you don't have your full squad in, generally the opening, I don't want to say opening round anymore, but generally the first game of the season, that's when they all just get auto-filled as well.
00:07:40
Speaker
I think typically it's the Carlton Richmond game, so you see a lot of Carlton Richmond players with high ownership that probably wouldn't actually be as high given the auto-generated teams that go in. This will be interesting anyway and the way I wanted to do it was just in three separate categories and I did throw this in late, so hopefully we can sort of put them as best we can under these categories. I've gone with
00:08:03
Speaker
Establish gun points of difference so they these are players that you know their names they've been around the fantasy game for a long time and and perhaps it's strange that you know we've noticed that their their ownership is low or maybe there's a reason that they're low but there's the established guns then we're gonna go into surprisingly potty pods.
00:08:21
Speaker
So these are players that maybe have been talked about in fantasy circles or in AFL circles like during trade period, but then are surprisingly low, are surprisingly low ownership despite that being talked about.
Potential Rebound Seasons for Key Players
00:08:35
Speaker
And then last but not least, the under the radar pods. So these are maybe guys that we've got our eyes on that aren't quite yet in the mainstream, but that may rise as their form kind of comes to light in the pre-season.
00:08:47
Speaker
Let's get started with our established gun pods though and i'll let you do the honors homes if you want to kick us off with one of those established guns you've noticed with low ownership.
00:08:57
Speaker
Yeah, no worries, Dossi. And I'm sure Louis probably would have had a crack at this one if he was here. So apologies, Louis. But I'm going to start with a player who has left a pretty sour taste in some coaches' mouths, especially for draft. He wasn't very classic relevant last year, but he has fallen off the map. He is currently at 1.08%. And that is Ollie Wines. So
00:09:23
Speaker
Real bad taste in the mouth from last year, but if we actually have a look at his data, okay, last year was his lowest season since his rookie year. And outside of that, he's had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine seasons above 93, priced at 77. So he had a horrendous pre-season last year. I think he had knee surgery in the off-season. He wasn't able to train until pretty much right up before round one.
00:09:51
Speaker
And it showed so he had a real drop-off season. He even found himself out of the midfield So it's a definite preseason watch but from all reports from from Lou and what we're hearing from Port Adelaide He's at a full preseason. He has lost weight He's hit the ground ready to go and he should be back in that midfield. So if he's if he's good and he's in there Rosie and butters are gonna get all the attention and if he's that M3 I see potential for a 90 plus and potentially there's a little bit of value there. So
00:10:22
Speaker
Well, that's the issue, though, isn't it? Is he the M3? Like, when he was on fire a couple of years ago, he was the M1. And I reckon that they prefer Horned Francis in their head of him. So he's equal with Willem Drew as the M4 slash 5. Just quickly, before we get stuck into the weights, I just want to say, Holmes, we can't say a full pre-season. He's had a full pre-season. There's been like a month. It's been like a month that he's got three months left to get through. Two weeks. Full pre-season to this point.
00:10:53
Speaker
Yeah, look, Louie, just to pull back the curtains a bit as well. Lou already has exited our group chat once this pre-season based on a heated debate about Ollie Wines that I chimed in on. So, I guess, yeah, I was on the other camp. I just thought,
00:11:11
Speaker
guys in his mold. We've seen sort of players in that ilk, a bit slower midfielder, a bit bulkier, slower mids that are more the clearance players, just kind of getting left a little bit behind in this new kind of fast paced AFL. I don't want to say fully because you know, still guys like Patrick Cripps are probably a similar mold and he had a massive impact last year, but not
00:11:31
Speaker
Necessarily well i mean he started off off the gates massively in fantasy footy so i'm just looking at senate senate bounce numbers though and and given he obviously had that bad start to the season but he built some form
Richmond's New Strategy and Player Impact
00:11:43
Speaker
and. At the end of the year though homesy you know he was getting in rain nineteen seventeen percent senate bounces thirty two thirty one like.
00:11:52
Speaker
Even in the final series thirty eight percent twenty one percent you just think he's gonna you know really lift his his form this process and to get back in that mix like army said he's looking at. Not being is not even probably third on the list is probably fourth or fifth.
00:12:07
Speaker
Yeah, and that's it, Doss. Like I said, it is a big pre-season watch to see what his health and fitness is and what his role is. I just don't think we could ignore the nine years of 92 plus previously to this season. The blokes are gone, he's won a brown low. Yes, all your points are correct in terms of those slower midfielders have been sort of moved past, but it's just a definite watch and I think there's gonna be value there if he can get his body right because I think he does have a bit of a point to prove.
00:12:36
Speaker
Let's move on, Dossie. Lew and Holmes, have you got him and we don't? Yep. I think by that merit, though, we should all start Jared Lyons as well for a comeback season as well, in the Ollie Wines mob. No, harm me, take it away next, mate. And sorry, Lew, because Lew would have gone way harder. I think he's pretty keen on Wines, so we'll miss Lew.
00:12:57
Speaker
All right, established guns. Well, one that I'm warming towards, and he's only just getting back into training now because he had his concussion stuff, but Angus Breschel, he has ownership of 1.7% as a defender priced at 85.
00:13:14
Speaker
with some personal medical issues at Melbourne's midfield, I reckon he might be a good chance to bump up a spot. And you've got to also bear in mind that Melbourne have done away with Harms and Jordan, who also got a bit of a chop out in there. So I just feel like his CBA's may increase. You know, I don't know how, can't remember how old he is, 27 maybe, and he's still got a few years ahead of him too. So I think that he's probably a good shout at the minute I'm watching him.
00:13:44
Speaker
Fresh off the hundred hundreds on the famous hundred hundreds on christmas day are homesy i did see you almost a dare i say cringe at the thought of angus brayshore just here we do have the the video platform now on youtube of course go subscribe on there but to homesy the people would be able to see that cringe what what was with that for angus brayshore
00:14:05
Speaker
I just can't believe how hard harm he just went at me for an Ollie Wines call when he's spruiking in an Angus Brayshore that's, you know, one slightly misguided tackle away from retirement. We love the bloke, but he's, well, it's pretty risky starting a bloke with his concussion history, no? I don't think he missed a regular sizing game. Did he? I don't know. I'll have to look at that.
00:14:28
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. I love a fully fit Angus Brayshore in the right role. I always have. I just think you're right. There's a lot of players that have left Melbourne and there's definitely a spot opening that midfield. I'm just not sure whether that'll be Angus Brayshore. We need him to start pretty hot and I'm not sure he's going to be fully fit to start the season with everything he's gone through, but could be wrong.
00:14:50
Speaker
He just did 100 hundreds, two days ago. Are you sure, mate? We've just seen a photo on Instagram. His Instagram reality, mate, he might have just jumped in for the photo. Yeah, just looking at his numbers last year, though, Harmony's right. And he became more of that midfield presence, I guess, when Oliver went down. So I guess that's another question heading into this pro season or heading into this season coming up in 2024. What Clayton Oliver's sort of presence is going to be like in that team. And that would really open up a
00:15:19
Speaker
A slot if he's out of the mix early but we obviously hope Oliver is firmly in the mix but just a few things going on there still and to your point a few players exiting the club so there is room in that midfield it's just whether or not it's him or someone like a Tom Sparrow or even someone else that we might be talking about a little bit later on that that takes up the bulk of those midfield minutes.
00:15:40
Speaker
I'll get onto my one first I might just do a two-pronged approach here now when I went established guns I went even guys that that have performed well recently that That you still might want to start and still have maybe that little bit upside or maybe you just want to chuck on the captain see so
00:15:56
Speaker
Jayden Short, I had, so two Richmond guys I'll go with. Jayden Short at 2.55% at the moment. He missed some games last year, which isn't usually like Jayden Short. Got the new coach who apparently
Early Buy Players and Strategy
00:16:08
Speaker
loves his offensive footy. I think, look, it's going to be a perfect game plan for Short. That's something to just watch is that game plan that Uze implements. But the other guys, Tim Taranto, who was in basically all of our teams last year as a forward, he's now a mid only, but he's at 3.43% at the moment.
00:16:24
Speaker
Um, so either of those two guys, um, tickle your fancy. There is points of difference thinking, you know, if the, the new Richmond game plan potential for some, for, for some upside, I know Tim Toronto, you're probably paying for what you get, but maybe a captain option.
00:16:39
Speaker
Yeah, Tintoranto is interesting, isn't he? I mean, he started like a house on fire. I think it was a 120 plus average for a large chunk of the season, but then, you know, finished the back half with a mid 90s average. So I'm not sure you could pay a 113 price tag for someone that has the potential to do that.
00:16:55
Speaker
You know, did it coincide with Hopper coming back into the team? Who really knows? Did he have a niggle? You can't argue with the start of his year. I just, yeah, I'd be a little bit worried. But in saying that, that Richmond midfield is essentially Toronto Hopper and no one else, maybe a bit of Dusty. So, yeah, there's going to be a lot of ball and a lot will rely on him. I just think, you know, 1-13 price tag is pretty massive.
00:17:19
Speaker
What about you, Harmony? Do you think we just have to keep an eye on the game plan? Because obviously it's a new coach. It's a completely different system, potentially. It sounds like it's a very different system to what we saw last year. Will you just be keeping your eye on this? Because those could be some juicy pods, especially if Toronto comes out the gates like you did last year.
00:17:37
Speaker
I like the idea of Jaden Short, but I'm not sure what role he's going to be playing, whether he actually has a spot in that midfield or if he's on the back flank, which is probably preferable really. Yeah, look, I'm a bit uncertain and they've got the bye early, I think. I think it's round six, Hami. I think they got the bye in round six.
00:18:02
Speaker
You know, and just for the few defender issues, but I'm more keen on short than trying to put it that way. Yeah. And what I will say as well is I think for the purpose of this pods thing, um, obviously opening around there's what Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton sons, Richmond giants and Collingwood pending how the players score and stuff is, is obviously going to change if you're going to pick them or not. And their ownership is going to change drastically. But for this purpose, we're just going to look at players of all.
00:18:30
Speaker
All the teams I think it's not gonna really matter if they're playing opening round or not here for us for the purpose of this discussion but Alright, let's get on to another player. I'm homesy. Who have you got? Are we still going to establish guns? I've probably got one more. I want to talk about if not I've got one more. Yeah, you jump in homie
00:18:49
Speaker
I was going to say someone who has done it before and he's tracking pretty well after missing the majority of last season's Camgar 3. So his ownership is 2.4% priced at 87% I think. But in 2022, he went at 96%. In 2021, he went at 110%. So
00:19:09
Speaker
Yeah, and the other thing with him, he's no early by, so he'll play through. Same as another Geelong player I got after, so it makes me more interested, but I don't have him in there at the moment, but somebody who's worth a look. He could be the number one midfielder at the Cats too, because who else is there? Blix? Danger? That midfield mix at the Cats is an interesting one.
00:19:34
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind it, Hami. The one thing that's always been a little bit of a worry about Guthrie is his time on ground. He's always been sort of an impact player and his really big fantasy numbers came in 2019 and 2020 when Geelong really played that chip-chip style and we have seen them speed up a lot.
00:19:50
Speaker
recently and that's sort of coincided with, you know, sort of Mitch Duncan falling away as well. He's obviously a lot older too, but they don't really play that chip, chip style. So there's probably
Surprising Ownership and Player Roles
00:19:59
Speaker
value. It is 87 and he probably will be the M1, but I'm not sure there's going to be, you know, a hundred plus value that we sort of need from that price point, but definitely one to watch. I like it. All right. And the last player for me in the established guns category.
00:20:15
Speaker
Tom Stewart at 9.9%, 96 average last year. I like the Saint Kilda matchup out the gate. You mentioned it, Hami. He's going to come and play all the games, no early buy to worry about. I've just gone, you know, established gun that's 9.9%, bit surprising for me at this time of year. I think maybe it's just given that everyone's got at D1 at the moment. It seems like a pretty hefty call to go with a Nick Dacos kind of vibe there, which probably is unsurprising.
00:20:43
Speaker
Are you ready to be heard again? Like we were last year ahead of the pack with that 14 that we copped in round one.
00:20:52
Speaker
That was shit. I'll give you another one, right? This is, this is, if we're moving on to the next category, Dossie, you're like this, the surprising pods, Jack Bose. Oh no, he's probably in your under the radar pods, but a Geelong defender, because he got 10, didn't he? He had a 10 and he had a nine last year in his course. Yep. Well, I had him in surprisingly potty as well, to be honest. Wasn't that a 0.5% ownership? Yeah.
00:21:19
Speaker
Wasn't that Dossie's downgrade from Sam Docherty? Like for like? It was. Last year. Yeah, look, as you said, injury and sub-affected games. I don't know if you're trolling there, Hami, but look, I'm actually surprised he is that low ownership given you've got guys. Look, he granted he's probably 100k cheaper, but a guy like Zach Williams, who's just been injured and injured and injured and injured.
00:21:41
Speaker
Jack is done it you know he's been injured this time but I feel like he's in a side that kind of needs him more than Colton needs Zach Williams they've just gone you know nearly all the way without him whereas Geelong kind of just need veteran bodies back there or even through the midfielders you said there's not really many people throwing their hands up he's shown to be a defender and a midfielder and is pretty cheap. Yeah no I'm actually quite interested.
00:22:07
Speaker
Alright, let's keep a pre-season eye on that 0.5% for Jack Bose, but this is our second category of pods. So surprisingly, podty pods, guys perhaps being talked about, but still lowly owned. I'm going to have to get in there before anyone else does. Patty Dow. Patty Dow, still that low ownership. What's his actual ownership? I didn't even write it down. I just know it's low. 6.6%. 6.6%.
00:22:36
Speaker
I think the issue here, and I don't know if it's a tactic just to keep him under wraps, but not much media since the initial, since the initial sprucing of the arrival at, at, at Arden Street, or is that, no, is that North? I don't know. Wherever he's playing, thank you. I can't remember the actual, I can't remember the actual, I can't remember the actual, I can't remember the actual, I can't remember the actual,
00:22:59
Speaker
Where thank you need to put more stuff of patty dao out there or honzi are we just is is. Pre-season been a bit underwhelming that i don't want to get the shredded photos or they just keeping it under wraps until he explodes round one.
00:23:15
Speaker
Well, Dossi, I'm not sure, mate, because I'm not inside the four walls. But if I had to guess, what is it, seven pre-seasons now of being underwhelming? Maybe there's just been an eight pre-season being underwhelming, but nah. Do we think he's M3? Do we think he's M3 behind Steel and Crouch? This is what I was going to go to. So I reckon Jack Steel is the number one mid there comfortably, even though he's a bit of a limited pre-season, but he's number one.
00:23:43
Speaker
Crouch, even though he's not training properly, is probably still number two. Then you go to Dow, Hunter Clark, Zach Jones, Seb Ross, with a bit of Windhager and Sinclair, but they don't even do that much when you look at the CBA. So I reckon there's a spot there and Dow or Zach Jones is probably going to run with it. And Zach Jones is 0.5% ownership too priced the same. So yeah, I think
00:24:09
Speaker
I'm watching that one because I think that one of those guys is probably a good starting player. What I will say, and I found this very surprising, but our good mate at the draft, Dr. Steve Fizz, did one of his epic solo pods, I think it was in October or November, and he did the center bounce win rate for all of the players in the comp. And Dow actually came in at the highest percentage win rate in the entire AFL. Not surprising.
00:24:36
Speaker
Not surprising. Yeah, look, if he had forward status, we would be looking at this a hell of a lot more. As a mid-only, it's always going to be tough because you do really need him to sort of push that 90 range to be, you know, a smash picking and competitive and someone we can hold for a long time. So it is going to be hard for him to go 90 having never done it before, but you can't argue his value.
00:24:58
Speaker
You can't argue that there's probably a spot for him and he just needs to take it. I just am a little bit cagey about where he will end up and if he is going to be close enough. But, Dossi, I can't wait for you to find a way to put him into every single podcast we have between now and round zero just to make sure that we all know.
00:25:17
Speaker
Are you going to pick him? That's the question. Are you going to put your money where your mouth is? Yeah, like, yeah, I think I will. It's just I need some I need something from the media team at the Saints. Like, I feel like they've been tough. I feel like Ross has been like, look, he is our greatest weapon. We need to keep this under wraps from the opposition club so that they don't tack on early and there's a tag round one. But yeah, look, I need something to tell me that, yes, he's actually firmly in the mix there.
00:25:44
Speaker
And I need maybe even Ross himself to just come out and say, he's our guy. We're going to love seeing him play this year. But yeah, look, Patty's got some great upside. We all know that. But 6% ownership is pretty low, I would have thought, for a guy that seemingly has had a lot of talk this preseason. All right, who's going next, Holmes? Give us a surprisingly potty pod.
00:26:06
Speaker
Yeah, so this one's interesting again. I'm not surprised that he's that low because he's had a couple of injury affected years. Once again, he's got a bit of a bad taste in our mouths, but I'm going to go with Jack Billings. Now, he's been a top 10 forward in the past and I'm not saying he's going to be a top 10 forward. I don't think he's going to have that same fruitful wing roll that he's had at St Kilda and Melbourne don't play that chit-chit style.
00:26:31
Speaker
as much as St Kewter have done in the days. But the fact that he's priced at 59, we don't need him to be a top 10 forward. If he goes 85 plus, then he's going to be someone that we can keep for a large part of the season considering the lack of forward options that we have at this current time.
North Melbourne's Midfield Dynamics
00:26:48
Speaker
And even if he goes 80 plus, he's still going to be a pretty good cash generator for us to get him up to someone else.
00:26:54
Speaker
Although he's only played, he only played three games last year, which is why he's so cheap. And he only played eight games in 2022. There was two injury games and then there was one stinker. But other than that, he scores in the 90s and he's had years of 98, 94, 85, 2020 it was 75, but that's COVID. So that's more like a mid to high 90. So we know this guy can score.
00:27:19
Speaker
yes we don't know what his role is so caveat with all these players is we need to have a look in the preseason to see what their role is in the new team but if he has that high half forward even a wing roll at times and he can push 80 I think he's going to be a pretty good pick for us priced in priced at 59 so he's one I'm definitely tracking I know some other coaches aren't really keen at all
00:27:39
Speaker
But we do forget how good this guy has been. He was a high draft pick. It's infamously taken one pick before Bont, so well done, St Kilda. But yeah, I just think there's potential there if he has a decent role at a new club. What role do you think he'll play there, Hami? And could you see yourself picking him? I know pre-show we were having a little bit of a chat about that. And even when your Angus Bracell thoughts came up, we're like, well, is there room for a Billings a bit of inside mid there? But what do you think?
00:28:10
Speaker
Well, think of it this way. This is the way I look at it. He's not going to run on the wing. Last year he was fit at the end of the season and couldn't get a game force in Kilda. So I'd say his role is a bit of Ford flank and a bit of VFL at the moment. Wow. Okay. 92 average in the VFL from eight games, by the way, last year, Jack Billings. Not that that matters, but
00:28:38
Speaker
He's an interesting name. He's an interesting name nonetheless. We've seen him do it in the past as Holmes, he said, but yeah. Maybe there was something else going on there, Hami. We saw Sam Flanders not be able to get a look in. And yes, Flanders numbers in the VFL were monstrous. So you can't quite compare that, but we never know what was going on behind the four walls. Like I said, maybe they knew he was leaving and he wasn't, you know, putting in as much effort as he could. And we know what Ross is like. So I'm just monitoring it.
00:29:05
Speaker
Um, you know, just with the lack of forwards we have this year, I think that presents an opportunity for someone in that price range to, to get close enough to, you know, the top six to 10 forwards. Yeah, you might be right, mate. I'm just saying there's a bit of risk there. So maybe just leave me out of that one. Surprisingly potty pod, army. Oh, surprisingly potty pod. How about, uh,
00:29:28
Speaker
Jay Simpkin from North Melbourne, 4% ownership, priced at 76. He had two sub games last year. One of those was a seven point game and he was 20 points down on his average from both 2022 and 2021. So could present some value there and having a look at the North midfield, LDU would be their number one I would expect, but then at the end of the season, it was Simpkin and Taran Thomas. So,
00:29:57
Speaker
What changes? Is he underpriced based on those injuries and he's not too bad of value?
00:30:04
Speaker
Do you think like with their additional talent, is he going to be, cause I know the year before that as well, Simpkin was, you know, it was him and, it was him and, um, LDU again, like you said the year before, though, I mean, even in the early rounds, I think last year, Simpkin, when he was going, he was like 90 plus percent inside mid kind of center bounce numbers. Do you still see that happening with the fact, you know, ward laws on the rise? Are they going to bring the draft day straight, straight a little bit of, you know, exposure to the midfield time?
00:30:34
Speaker
Or do you just say Simpkin as, you know, established top, top end sort of center bounce numbers and really inside mid, pure inside mid?
00:30:43
Speaker
Yeah, maybe not. I was just trying to bring up some of those stats from last year. But you've got to think, if he's had two injuries throughout the course of the season, he's probably not 100% throughout the whole year anyway. Let's have a look. Round 24, 123. Round 21, 105. I'd say the scoring potential is still there. Round 10 against the Sauns, 115.
00:31:06
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not convinced that he's washed because what is he? 20, 25. I'm looking at last. So 2023, he had 60% center bounce attendances. And we know like a lot of, a lot's been made of center bounce attendances and what they mean for fantasy scoring this the last couple of years. But I'm just looking at him playing as a midfielder and getting the opportunity to score 60% in 2023, 83% and number one for North the year before. So
00:31:37
Speaker
Does he return to being the number one guy? I mean, LDU I think now is definitely going to be the number one guy, but can he be on par with LDU? Then they rotate the ward laws, maybe even a sheasel. Who's the new guy? Sorry, McCurcher. Do they float these guys through? And is it those two that are the established guns? And if he is, then 76 points, you know, that's potentially even 20 points upside. This is my prediction and I'm no expert, you know, whatever. But I think that he's still in there. You've got LDU, Simpkin,
00:32:07
Speaker
Okay, so that's two, then you'll probably have Wardlaw with a little bit of Taran Thomas and Will Phillips and Colby McCurcher, I reckon, and Tom Powell, don't even know if he really gets a game or his forward or wing. So, I mean, Liam Shields, he's not going to be in there, so I'm predicting he's still got a role in midfield. Yeah, absolutely.
00:32:32
Speaker
I think the big one that you missed there, Hami, that'll go through there more is Sizel. I think he's had his apprenticeship year. I think, just looking at it from this point, I think it's pretty perfect that McCurcher gets to pretty much slot into what Sizel did last year and they will want him to be more damaging through the midfield and through half forward a bit like what Dacos did this year in the second half. So I think
00:32:56
Speaker
My worry with Simpkin is he's definitely value. I can't see him going 77 again. Those, like you said, those injuries definitely played a role.
Horne-Francis's Breakout Potential at Port Adelaide
00:33:04
Speaker
But I think as Dossie was saying, when he, when he went back to back 95s, it was him and LDU and that was essentially it. Whereas I think they're going to bring a lot of this young talent through. And I think he'll be in there, but I think it might be a bit more of like a 60%, 40% forward split where he plays a little bit more forward.
00:33:21
Speaker
And because of that, I think, you know, he might top out at maybe a low 90s or a high 80s sort of average, because he has potential to score. We've seen it, but he's a bit up and down like a yo-yo. There was a big point throughout the season where he was still getting 80% plus CBAs and he was putting up 60s and 70s. He has that floor and that's what's a bit worrying about Simpkin, I think.
00:33:43
Speaker
I've always, I've always been scared to own him. He's a guy that, he's one of those guys you're scared to own, scared not to own. Cause like you said, he's got the ceiling, but he's also got that floor. Can I remember one year, I think he just got tagged to absolute shreds as well. Like he's, he's able to be tagged. Whereas I feel like LDU can fight through a tag. So if there, there are teams, I don't know. I don't know. I'm going to get onto my, um, surprisingly potty pod and, um, I'm going to go.
00:34:10
Speaker
I actually just want to quickly touch on a guy. I won't spend too much time because he doesn't technically fit the mold, but Rory led just over 10%. So I just want to say just over 10% smidge priced 109 22 games last year. I feel like we all know he was a little bit unders.
00:34:29
Speaker
people that started him last year would have been absolutely devastated when he kind of started pretty slow, finished 114 in his last five, 118 in his last three, and we know what Rowlett can do. I won't go any more than that. I think it's just a little surprising that he's not more heavily owned, particularly without the
00:34:47
Speaker
Without the early buy, he's got a few friendly matchups early, starts with Gold Coast as well, although I know he struggled on up in Gold Coast last year as one of his poorer games. The other surprisingly, Potty Pod for me, and I think this guy mainly just because
00:35:03
Speaker
entering that third year breakout priced at 66 in a team that has some a very friendly early draw. I'm talking about Port Adelaide again, another guy from Port. So whereas Louis and a few and maybe even homes, you're keen on wines. I'm keen on the young guy coming through and that is Jason Horn Francis spending more time in the midfield this year. I think he's the guy that's just going to just going to spend more time in the midfield coming into his third year, had full 22 games under his belt last year. There's something about.
00:35:33
Speaker
Those Trav Boak nurturing videos, watching him spend some time with Trav Boak, the jet in the off season. I'm loving seeing some of that. That's the sort of material I need from someone like a Patty Dow coming out of the Saints. But Jason Horn-Francis for me, as a midfielder, low ownership at this time of year 4.84%
00:35:55
Speaker
Only 58% of center bounces last year. For me, there's room to grow there. I think he pushes up and mixes it with Butters and Rosie as the leading kind of... They're the top three at that club. What do you say, 66 is priced at? He is priced at 66. It's a bit of an awkward spot though, isn't it? That's the thing.
00:36:14
Speaker
I just think he's ready to explode, Horned Francis. Now, I do admit he's probably more of your super coach player, definitely more of a class over accumulation, but I just think at 66, he's going 80 plus and probably pushing 90 plus this year.
James Jordan's Move to Sydney
00:36:31
Speaker
So, it's still seems to be cool. I'm getting two shake of the heads. It's a no from those two. I think it's Rosie Butters and Horned Francis. I don't think
00:36:40
Speaker
Personally that wines is gonna take some massive step up I think it's gonna be horned Francis that takes a big step up and becomes that established gun, so Seems like the other two aren't on board, but look let's watch those points of difference numbers arise This is the December edition I think we do another edition of this right before round one and just have a look at the points of difference Heading closer to the season home. Did you have any more in this category the surprisingly potty pods?
00:37:08
Speaker
I think mine probably fit into the next category, Dossi, the sort of the ones that we're not talking about. But Hami's got his hand up from the notebook. I'm sure he's got about 50 of them. So what do you got for us, Hami? Yeah, I just had two I thought I'd touch on. I got, let's have a look.
00:37:26
Speaker
A larger Hewitt from West Coast, even though he is not training fully at the moment, something with his foot, so I don't have to keep an eye on that. But priced at $46, he had a number of sub-affected games last year, 5.4% ownership. And I've also had a look at Conor McDonald for the Hawks.
00:37:44
Speaker
and he's priced at 71. He had two sub-affected games, 0.6% ownership available as a forward. So I don't think he's going in the midfield, but he's got a pretty good scoring pedigree. I'm going one more and I won't also touch on it too much. I don't think it's that surprising as we've said surprisingly potty potty. And this is just because
00:38:03
Speaker
Gold Coast he's got the second by so sorry round three by so willpower from the Gold Coast sons I just love willpower this year he's up there for me I think if he does have a massive opening round I might even still just pick him for those couple of cash rises cuz I think he's gonna be in the mix for
00:38:23
Speaker
the top sort of three or four defenders in the whole of AFL fantasy this year. Under Damian Hardwick, we know what he's like in terms of liking that slingshot foot. He used Jaden Short in that role, used Basha Hooli in that role before him, and Will Powell, I think, fits the role as.
00:38:40
Speaker
your perfect user in the back line for the Suns. I think he's certainly in for a big year, very lowly owned, 82 price point as well. I think he also was injury affected last year, but full pre-season I think coming up for wheel power as well.
00:38:56
Speaker
All right let's get into the last category of pods that we have here and these are the ones under the radar under the radar points of difference, plays that you've got your own who aren't in the mainstream probably snuck a few in across the podcast so far but let's touch on the guys under the radar interested to hear your first one here home see.
00:39:18
Speaker
Yeah, so this one, this guy, he has moved to a new club for opportunity. He's priced at 50 and that's James Jordan. So the good thing about James Jordan is having that playing round zero, we're going to get a good look at what his role is, not in a pre-season game, but in a proper AFL game.
00:39:37
Speaker
And I don't think he would have moved to Sydney if they hadn't have promised him some kind of opportunity. We know that Errol has one wing sewn up so maybe there's a wing roll there for him. Maybe there's a bit of inside time with Callum Mills having a delayed start with all his issues and we've seen a bit of like a row bottom go out a little bit recently.
00:39:58
Speaker
Priced at 50, we really need him, you know, 70 plus is an okay average from him and anything sort of above 75 pushing towards 80 is going to be a smash pick and we've got the evidence there. He's had two years at 70, his first and second year and then last year he was in the sub-vest a lot, falling out of favour in that side.
00:40:17
Speaker
You know, two years at 70, we see what Sydney do. They nurture their players. They have a very good culture up there. And if, you know, as a forward, once again, with the lack of options we have, I'm actually quite interested in a James Jordan. And like I said, we get a really good look at him.
00:40:33
Speaker
As always, you know, we're pretty much going to have to wait till round zero to see whether or not he's going to be worth picking. But I think at this point in the preseason, he's someone that you can put in there, help your structure, and then you can kind of pivot down or up without changing too much if the role doesn't come to fruition come round zero.
Under the Radar Player Picks
00:40:54
Speaker
We had a bit of a chat about this pre-pod. Let's hear your thoughts on James Jordan. Obviously, with the caveat, Holmes has said, it is a bit of a cheat pod because you do get a look at him. If he plays well, he's not going to be a pod. But at the moment, would you consider James Jordan as a starting pick for yourself?
00:41:17
Speaker
I've considered it. Instead of being in and out of my plans, I'm growing less keen on it. I think that the opportunity that he's been promised, given by Sydney, is actually playing. Because if you have a look at his games last year, he played 10 games.
00:41:36
Speaker
where he wasn't the sub and he played about another 10 where he was subbed. So I think he just wanted to actually have a decent run at it. And I think that it's going to be on the wing because I've had a look at the midfielders for Sydney and I'm, I reckon he's like seventh or eighth in line sort of thing. I'm not sure whether he's really going to get a pinch hit in there. Rattle off a few there. Sorry. Rattle off a few. I think it's interesting when you do look at who's there and sort of an established name.
00:42:01
Speaker
Okay, I reckon the one that has gone there to play inside me is Adams. I think he'll be playing in the inside role. I think that they love Robottom. He'll be in there. Warner is a burst of pace. They'll need him through there. I think Parker still plays in the midfield. I think that they like Gordon running through there at times. They like Tom Papley. They do, like he actually has quite a high proportion of CBAs. So I'm up to six so far.
00:42:28
Speaker
I'm before we even look at what color meals but i reckon he's going back right bottom and then you don't even look at robertson children so i think so i just feel like he's a bit far down in the pecking order.
00:42:44
Speaker
It's fair. It's a few names at IMD, but at the same time, like you said, it's a cheat code. We get opening around. We can chuck him in our teams if he does have that established role. And I think that's your point anyway. Hami, who's your first name here? Under the radar. All right. Again, somebody who has changed clubs.
00:43:04
Speaker
averaged 103 in the VFL last season, available as a defender priced at 34, 1.3% ownership. Marty Hoare, I was really surprised at how low his ownership was. I've actually been pretty keen on him the whole time. Yep. Holmes, you're nodding your head as well, mate. It's a podcast. Need to open the mouth there.
00:43:25
Speaker
Yeah, well, I was actually going to look to put him in in this section as well, but I'm glad you did. So, yeah, he's been in my team since the game opened. I was chatting to one of my mates the other day who is a Melbourne supporter and he's a little bit cagey about if he's actually going to play or not. But in my head, it's
00:43:42
Speaker
AFL clubs don't give lifelines to this age of a player unless they have a role for them. I think they always tend to draft the youth, thinking that they can develop them and these type of players don't generally get a look in. So he had that one year, 2019, where he averaged 60. So there's evidence there. He can go at 60. That's not an issue. Priced at 34.
00:44:07
Speaker
with how Melbourne's looking, I think, if he can get a role in that backline playing, is that sort of intercept running? Well, not running, but sort of intercept play. I think there's definitely scope for 60 plus and at 34, that's what we're after.
Ruck Strategy and Key Picks
00:44:21
Speaker
We need a best 22 player that we don't have to worry about. So I am definitely interested in Marty Hallharmie. So that's nice that we're on the same wavelength there. Yeah, super cheap coming in, mature age player. If he's named round one, he certainly want to
00:44:37
Speaker
to look at and definitely want to keep that on that role. I think we saw, I mean, I don't know if it's, it's probably not the same role, but like Michael Hibberd now out of the picture, he still played, I think 10 to 12 games last year. Like there's a few spots still up for grabs in the, in the defense in Melbourne. And I think the biggest thing though is, is where, you know, guys like Gus Brayshaw, if he does move up the ground and if,
00:45:00
Speaker
other players or even Trent Rivers was spending a little bit more time inside next year if he is one that they've got pegged into to spend a bit more time inside than opens up the defense because otherwise the defense is pretty loaded. At Melbourne but yeah the defense is loaded Jake Bowie play twenty one games.
00:45:21
Speaker
He's a gun. So my first under the radar pod, Jake Bowie at 0.13%, 562,000, an absolute bargain. I did actually have him in there, but I was going to do it as a bit of a joke later. But I love Jake Bowie this year, but probably for draft. I wouldn't start him in classic. I've learned my mistakes from the past. Don't worry.
00:45:43
Speaker
I think, and this guy to me, my first player could have been in the surprisingly potty pods, honestly, because I'm shocked at how low his ownership is at this point in time. And I wish I had the port expert on to discuss this guy further. And maybe you guys can tell me if he's, if he's out with a season ending injury, because why other, why else would Jordan sweet
00:46:09
Speaker
be at 4.3% ownership at $387,000 in our ruck line. I think it's amazingly low and completely under the radar. I think because Ivan Saldow went there, people have got completely scared off. But we've seen Port for the last how long under Ken run just a single ruck setup. They haven't looked ever looking like running two. You've still got...
00:46:36
Speaker
Well, we've got Scott Lycett retiring. They've just brought in Jordan Sweet, 25 years old in that sweet spot. The only real... Pardon the pun. Only not getting a game because he's behind the best ruck arguably in the entire AFL. No other reason, no sort of injuries to his name. Played in the VFL last year. I wonder what his... I'll have to check out his numbers in the VFL, but one of the best ruckmen in the VFL as well when he's playing there.
00:47:03
Speaker
I'll just have a quick look. Jordan Sweet, 43 hit outs, 14 disposals, 104 points in the VFL average off his 19 games, you know, played a full season in there. We've already seen Ivan Soldo actually have some finger surgery in the preseason. The guy is constantly injured anyway. I just think it's Sweet's role. And at 387,000, even like at minimum on your bench, at minimum, he's going to make you a starker coin.
00:47:33
Speaker
Gonna be R2 or R3? I honestly reshuffled. I've already done a few reshuffles, but I've reshuffled to R2. I just think, look, if you want the big dog captain in Tim English, everyone's got Grundy at R2, but if we have an R3 that's a 200k or, you know, hopefully we do, but
00:47:54
Speaker
Jordan Suites minimum R3 for me. The issue is if he gets injured, if you've got him in R2 and he gets injured, you've got to actually cash out somebody else to get the money to correct it. I had him at R3 for quite a while, but now it's felt like it was too much
00:48:09
Speaker
sitting on the bench 380,000 that's a big difference and I wouldn't do it in any other line so I just sort of looked at it and thought if I can get two rucks and I'm comfortable that we will be consistently playing at a higher level then the R3 suite doesn't really fit
00:48:29
Speaker
I am on the fence about whether we can start a 380k ruckman on the bench army. I think it's the caveat is we got to have a look and see at all of the options but if there is no 200k rucks and then there is you know you know I know that you're talking up at a Nathan Kruger that you could potentially get there but
Defensive Options and Fremantle's Lineup
00:48:48
Speaker
Yeah, we know you love him, Hami. Don't shake your head, mate. I was only joking with you. Oh, yeah, right. You know, if he's the option and people are too scared to go there because 380K is too much to put on the bench, that could potentially be two, three, 400K, or maybe not 400K, that you're making on the rest of the comp purely because they're too scared to put that money on the bench. And he will play in round five when Grundy is injured. So that's another leg up as well where
00:49:15
Speaker
He's going to play when Grandi has the buy, so I'll definitely look at it if he's the solo ruck. I don't think I'm going to play him at R2. I've learnt that in the past, where you can kind of get stuck if you've got other force trades that week as well, and you can't get him out. You can disagree, Dossi, that's fine, but I will definitely look at him at R3, put it that way, if he's aimed.
00:49:40
Speaker
I think the cheap rucks though the last couple of years, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm trying to think back, but they've been dominating for us. A guy like Briggs, for instance, coming in, or I can't remember if it was the year before, but we've had guys at this price range that have basically been the winning picks in the ruck line lately. Well, hold on. Hold on.
00:50:03
Speaker
The guy that won last year started with martial and English. So the most recent form is that it's not a winning pick. Yeah, Briggs was the outlier. But just imagine, if he gets injured, like he has all of the time, it's a different conversation. So those coaches took it on and it was fantastic for them. Well played.
00:50:24
Speaker
in a different world if that that ruckman gets injured like harmi said you're you're in no man's land and you are trying to go down on a midfield premium to get up to you know good luck getting up to english from that price point so then once again you're going to another
00:50:39
Speaker
mid-price slash under-priced ruck, and then, you know, who knows, two, three, four trades in the ruck and you've kind of gone nowhere. So that's the risk with a sweet R2. But if coaches take it on and it works, then they have a good leg up. So that's the risk versus reward in AFL fantasy that we talk about all the time.
00:50:57
Speaker
Yeah. I love it. I just think it to me, you know, as I said, could fit under the surprisingly potty pods. I'm just, I'm just shocked that there's not more people selecting the bloke at this point in time, given the price tag, but it's clearly a point of discussion going forward. Uh, Holmes, did you have another play for us?
00:51:14
Speaker
Yeah, I'll talk about one of my Freo boys, and that is Heath Chapman. So priced at 54, a little bit awkward, as Hami would say. He's not super cheap. But priced at 54, all I know is that this player is an absolute gun. So he has all the talent in the world. Freo are very high on him, and he's had a couple of injury-affected years, as a lot of these players with value have.
00:51:41
Speaker
We know we're speculating at this point in time that Hayden Young is going to move into the midfield which opens up a ball winning spot on the halfback flank. We know that there's vacant wing rolls as well and I think he's earmarked for either one of those so off the halfback or on the wing.
00:51:58
Speaker
once again pre-season watch but I think there's definite value there and I know Frio love him so he's someone I'm just monitoring at this stage and he definitely helps that structure back there I'm not sure what his ceiling could be that's the caveat there and you would really need him from a 54 price tag to be pushing 80 which is a big ask but you know there's a there's a fair bit of ball to be won back there with Hayden Young moving into the midfield so it's one I'm watching pretty keenly at this stage in the preseason especially with Frio playing that chip chip style
00:52:26
Speaker
Except he's also moving into the midfield as you've just earmarked the latest articles I'm looking up on him. I just looked up just in case he was injured because it seems to be his
00:52:36
Speaker
his go-to, unfortunately, in the early parts of his career. But the latest on Heath Chapman is that Haydn Young has already made the move. Now, Heath Chapman is set to join the Frio midfield next year. So, as he said, if that could be the Liam Henry replacement on the wing, that is pretty juicy from his perspective. I love
00:52:56
Speaker
I think that's a that's a great call he's in the price bracket you kinda looking out for a bargain defender as well and similar price to a jack bows and i'd say he Chapman has showed that he's on a classy classy pro step above jack bows in terms of class army you've got some thoughts on as well. Yeah look at.
00:53:16
Speaker
I do like Chapman available as a defender. I guess my point is with Frio's midfield, you got Brayshaw, Sorong and Young now. Okay, so three. Who else is playing in there? So last year we saw a bit of Jager. Not sure really how effective he was. Nat five.
00:53:40
Speaker
Well, maybe a little bit of a pinch, but he's not going to be a regular. So then you go to other people. I'm not sure about Will Brody, not sure if he's coming back, Dossie. But then you go to Matt Johnson and Sunil Erasmus. And Erasmus, if he got a running that midfield, he's a guy that was a good junior scorer. He is priced at 51, 0.8% ownership.
00:54:06
Speaker
had seven games last year where he was a sub, but when he did get CBAs, he actually scored really well. In one game he hit 115. So he's somebody that could be interesting.
00:54:18
Speaker
Yeah, the opportunity's there, Hami. I worry about that, though, being that M4, M5 player, especially where, you know, we're banking on, you know, Brayshore pretty much doing what he's going to do. You'd think he's going to be around the 110 mark. You'd think Sorong's going to be around that sort of mark as well. And if we're banking on Hayden Young to sort of push 95-100, there's only so much ball to go around. You'd need him to go 75 close to 80, which potentially he can.
00:54:45
Speaker
But that would just be my worry. Worry on roll each week as well, being the sub. But there's definitely an opportunity there. I don't think Jager O'Mear is long for the midfield for too much longer. Like you said, he didn't offer very much. But they do need that point of difference in there, which I think will be young this year. I think he offers something different to Brayshaw and Sorong. And I think that's been... Sorry, I thought... Okay, I'm here.
00:55:11
Speaker
I think the Hayden Young spanner in the works just got thrown in there a bit sooner than we probably thought to. I think he was doing so well off the back line that it's probably come a lot sooner than maybe even the Dockers thought as well in their plans and in their draft strategy getting these guys that they thought could sort of enter that midfield mix. Sorry, Hami, go ahead, mate.
00:55:31
Speaker
All I was going to say was when Patty Dow doesn't get named around one, it could be a straight swap to Erasmus at the same price point. So that's all you wanted to jump in for absolute garbage from me. All right. Well, Harvey, do you have a couple of names? Do you want to just rattle off who you've got left on your list there?
High Ownership Players and Overvaluations
00:55:50
Speaker
No, that's pretty much it. I think we touched on everybody at different points throughout the podcast. So that was all from me. All right. Well, it'd be remiss for me not to mention this guy's name, especially Louis, knowing that he's Louis boy. I won't try and claim him as mine. I wish I could because I'm such a fan after seeing how well he's established himself. But another guy in that similar kind of price bracket, could we see a big second year breakout from the new
00:56:16
Speaker
number 23 at Hawthorn Josh Weddle. I think this guy's going to be a superstar. So let's just wait and see on that. I don't want to go too much into that. Let's wait for Louie to kind of really touch on how he can establish himself. But I feel like Josh Weddle was just made of a star. He's got this, the pace to burn that they need that Hawthorn desperately need. And he could play a variety of roles in that Hawthorn team. I just think they want the ball in his hands next year.
00:56:44
Speaker
Yeah, I was just going to give one more, Dossie, just because I just thought of it. But as fantasy coaches, we tend to overthink things a little bit. Then we put our minds in knots thinking about all this and all that. But Matt Crouch at 9.5%, priced in the low 80s, came in for six games at the end of the year. Hami shaking his head once again. I don't think we've agreed on this whole entire podcast.
00:57:06
Speaker
Average 98 from a low 80s price point and then they've given him two years. So I think he's definitely in their plans. I think they probably liked the fact that he could come in and play that role and actually release Jordan Dawson a little bit. I think
00:57:22
Speaker
Adelaide kind of showed last year that they liked having these Matt Crouch, Ben Keyes types coming in so that Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson didn't have to do as much of the heavy lifting. And I think if Crouch is there round one, which I fully believe that he will, I think he's under priced and we know he's going to be in that midfield because that's the role that he plays. So I just think
00:57:40
Speaker
Yeah, six games last year at an average of 98. I don't think he's going to push 100. I think he might be closer to that 95. But I think with that no opening by the fact he's going to play priced in the low 80s, I think he's someone we look at as well and don't overthink. Army jump in, mate. What's the counter?
00:57:58
Speaker
Yeah, well, I like Dawson and I like Laird. I think they are a really strong two in that allied midfield. But from there, I'm actually not sure how they set up. So you got Joshua Shelley, you got Jack Selego, Matt Crouch, who's
00:58:18
Speaker
Very different to those two because he's certainly not as quick and you got Ben Keys and Rory Sloan who aren't really getting the game. Schoenberg's injured. So I'm not sure how they're going to set up, but he's not going to play a key role. That's probably the point I'm trying to get to. Well, I think he does harm me. I think Rory Sloan actually last year was the third highest CBA attender across the year on average or pretty close to it. Let me just get the numbers up real quick because it actually surprised me when I went through the numbers.
00:58:48
Speaker
No, sorry, not quite. So he still had 32%, but there was games through the middle there where he was getting high fifties and he kind of went out of it towards the end when Crouch came in. So I think there's a role there for him. I think Richelli, you are right, Richelli Rankin and Selego offer something different, but there you more think of your Zach Bailey types from Brisbane that go in there for 20 or 30% just for a little bit of X factor when the other guys will do the heavy lifting.
00:59:16
Speaker
Matt Crouch, I'm looking at Hammeh. You don't have to log in and put him in your team, but I'm looking at him. I reckon in two years' time, Richeli could be just about the best of a lot of them. Rankin's up forward and he's not really going to be in the midfield. I think he's probably the one that they should be investing time into, but yeah, I guess we'll see. Have you seen the shredded photo as well, this preseason? Hammeh went off in Adelaide. De Luce ended to you. He's been watching X a fair bit for those photos.
00:59:40
Speaker
Just have a look, have a look at the Joshua Shelley. Have a little search on the socials after this, Hami. Before we wrap up, and we should wrap up, we've been going for an hour now. Just obviously trying to get away from the family this holiday season there, boys. But who do you think, if we look at, we'd quickly jump on the app or wherever you're looking at there, boys, and go the selected buy and switch the percentages around. Do any surprise you that are the high ownership players at this time of year that you think may be a little bit too high
01:00:09
Speaker
And while you're thinking about it, I'll go. I'll go with a Brody Grundy. I think that's a little high. I know why, but I think, you know, given the options that there are in the rock this year, 52% early showing people still believe he's is the player he used to be obviously at Sydney, different set situation, but that's fair enough.
01:00:30
Speaker
We've got Sam Flanders, 45% despite the round three buy. That's probably one where obviously I'm keen on a Sam Flanders coming in and the lack of forward options probably forcing people's hand here, but 45% when he's got a buy in round three, you'd want a massive score in the opening round before our round one game to be picking him. So any other players that sort of stand out to you, Hami?
Essendon's Midfield Depth and New Talent
01:00:56
Speaker
Yeah, there's a couple that really just spring to mind before I even look at it, mate, that people have been pumping up the whole time and I've been less keen on. Nick Daikos, the early buy and Hawks game, I'm just not sure there's much value there at the minute. 57% owned for those playing at home, second most owned player behind Harley Reid, who's probably under owned at this point at 66% coming from a West Coast fan, my man.
01:01:23
Speaker
And the other one is Kitty Coleman. I think people are thinking what happened in the first half of that grand final and trying to sell themselves that Daniel Rich isn't playing anymore. Well, Daniel Rich didn't play last year and Kitty Coleman was playing the same role the entire year last year. So I'm not convinced that there's the value that some other people are talking up around him.
01:01:48
Speaker
That's interesting. I was an owner towards the back end of last year actually of Kitty Coleman did come home strong 89 in his last five as well last year before having that amazing grand final, but he is a hot and cold player he can go It's sort of just very much dependent on the day as to where the kitty is going to be firing or not Holmes II, but yeah Have you got any players that stand out to you because yeah, that's that's a massive ownership for common. He's at What's he at 20 nearly 30 percent?
01:02:16
Speaker
already at this point in time. And as we've mentioned again, the buyers playing a factor has the round two buy. So you only get one game out of him and he's having a buy.
01:02:28
Speaker
Yeah, the only one I'll throw in, and I mean, in a perfect world, this guy has monster value, but Zach Williams, the one thing that Zach Williams has always struggled with in the last, you know, three to four years is his fitness and he's coming back from an ACL. He's not going to be in full training until mid to late January. And, Hami, we're on YouTube, mate. You can't give the be quiet symbol when we're actually being videoed, but I
01:02:56
Speaker
I just yeah I can't believe the hype on him he coming back from an ACL typically these injuries are very hard to come back from and he's always been an injury prone player so I can understand putting him in at this time of the preseason it's easy to sort of pivot across to another mid price or if if one sort of arises but yeah I'm I'm not keen to start Zach Williams I
01:03:17
Speaker
even with the buy in round two I'd be more than happy to watch him in round zero and round one and make sure that he gets through and then maybe pick him in round three or four you know at 10 points per game higher because he'll still be value then if he does show us that he's back to full fitness but yeah I'm not keen on Zach Williams.
01:03:35
Speaker
with you there. One last one and we've got a Bombers man on the show so I can ask him this. Elijah Sardis, I might be one of his biggest fans out there, but he's $476,000 in AFL fantasy classic.
01:03:52
Speaker
He's at 12.34% ownership, which at this time of year, looking at, he's around the same ownership as a Luke Davies Uniac, Jordan Dawson. He's not rookie priced, which like if he was rookie priced, I'd be not surprised, but 12% ownership at this time of year. Mate, what's going on down at Bomerland? Is there something in the water for Sardis to have that second year breakout? As I said, I'm a big fan.
01:04:19
Speaker
Yeah, he's a very good player. He started slow last year. I think he had injured, well that's right, he got injured in the pre-season. So he had an injury interrupted season. I think there's definitely upside there. It's a matter of how much upside you think that there's going to be in his junior comps. He was always a really high scorer, regardless of where he played. So I think there's potential, but I think it's maybe the price point.
01:04:47
Speaker
And the lack of forward premium. Do you have any mid price forwards that you prefer, Dossie, that you can think of? I've got a few names, but now I sort of compare his price. Maybe it's not as surprising, but I had guys in this pod that I sort of didn't mention because we were kind of running out of time, but like, oh, actually he's 200K more.
01:05:11
Speaker
400. No, I'd have to look, I was thinking like a Mitch Owens, but he's like 200K more. That kind of makes sense.
Conclusion and Follow Us Reminder
01:05:18
Speaker
He averaged 64 last year, did Sardis of four games. So he's also got the discount factored in. Honestly, I'm not going to lie. When I saw that, I didn't realize he had the mid forward status. And we probably, you know, you'd hope that he does play a bit more midfield this year was, was.
01:05:36
Speaker
I'm with you. Me and Hami's more than happy to do this on the players that I rattle off. So that Essendon midfield, you've got Merritt, Parrish, Dylan Shields still around like he's injured, but he plays midfield, he does. You've got Setterfield, you've got Hobbs they put time into, you've got Caldwell, like they run deep in the midfield. If Sardis plays, maybe he gets a little pinch hit, but he's playing on the half forward line and he's destined for a 70 average. So yeah, I'm not there at the moment.
01:06:05
Speaker
Yeah, I can't really see him going inside. They also like Archie Perkins to Holmes. And then on the wings, we've got Nick Martin and Durham. I feel he's going to be in the forward line quite a bit this season.
01:06:21
Speaker
Yep. Dossi, Dossi pointing out some, some solid players here. So he's, he's done all right this podcast. All right. Well, let's wrap it up then. I think that's a, that's a pretty solid holiday podcast for all your fantasy needs, just to keep you nice and satiated in the holiday season with a bit of fantasy content. We thought we'd pop on.
01:06:40
Speaker
Thanks, guys, for jumping on, Holmsey and Hami. Hope you continue. I hope you have a good new year, boys. We'll be back in the new year, but have a fantastic new year. And don't forget to check out all the reactions from Holmsey and Hami, all the head shakes, all the gasps on the YouTube channel. Just search up Pod Pod. You'll find us on there.
01:07:03
Speaker
Make sure you subscribe to whatever podcast platform you're listening to. We really appreciate any five star reviews at this time of year, especially on your Spotify or your Apples or wherever you'd listen, but hope you have a safe and happy holiday season and we'll see you in the new year. Good luck with your team tinkering over the break.