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Breakouts and Regression Candidates feat. The Draft Doctors Stevie Fizz | #PODPOD
1.3k Plays1 year ago
Stevie Fizz of The Draft Doctors drops by to discuss who could be in for a breakout year and dropping off in 2024!
A salary cap player first and foremost, Stevie loves nothing more than to play salary cap, watch some cricket, and enjoy a wave of new listeners tuning into The Draft Doctors.
On this show, with names like Sam Flanders, Tristian Xerri, Kidean Coleman, and Hayden Young already hot on fantasy radars for a breakout, we look at some names who are not being talked about as much in fantasy circles.
Then, the recording kinda falls apart a bit for the regression section but we still managed to sneak a couple of spicey takes in. Enjoy!
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Follow us on X:
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Statesman: @Statesman33
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Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
00:00:03
Speaker
you
Introduction to AFL Fantasy discussion
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's your boy Dossi talking all things AFL fantasy on this Monday night, January 8th, 2024. We're talking breakouts and regression on the show today with a very special guest, if I do say so myself. But before we introduce him, joining me as always, we have two time top 10 hat winner, Karl
Special guests join the discussion
00:00:44
Speaker
Holmes. How are you, mate?
00:00:45
Speaker
Good, Dusty boy. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, looking forward to this one. I don't think you need to thank me for being on anymore, mate. You're part of the show. You're part of the fabric here. You're not a guest anymore, mate. No need to thank me on the intro. This guy does have to thank me, though, because it is a it is an honor to be on this show and he must remember that from time to time. But we have five time top 100 finisher, the Statesman on as well. Welcome, mate.
Stevie Fizz on fantasy insights
00:01:10
Speaker
G'day, Dossie. I will say, apologies, listeners, if I caught splutter, sweat a fair bit as I am right now, I'm going through a bit of a fever patch. I've got the vid, unfortunately, two weeks overseas, had a beautiful break, get back home for three days and get the vid. So, yeah, unfortunately, down the dumps a little bit at the moment, so I do apologize. And we are worried. We are worried. We don't want to lose this day.
00:01:36
Speaker
And I'm going through a major sweat as we speak. It's shocking. Prez up for the force. We know it is a danger for his demographic. But our guest today, he is a salary cap lover, a guy who's been frothing over the cricket as well this holiday period. But a man who basically invented the CBA in all seriousness and he eats solo podcasts for breakfast. It is the great Stevie Fuse of
Identifying breakout and regression candidates
00:02:01
Speaker
The Draft Doctors. How are you going, mate?
00:02:02
Speaker
Yeah, good man, good. Always happy to talk some salary caps. My bread and butter.
00:02:11
Speaker
It is your favorite format. And how's the team coming together? Have you actually logged in yet? Have you put in the old, the new AFL fantasy? What do you got to put in some new system now and get your profile sorted? Is that all done for you, Stevie? You've got a team, of course. Yeah. Well, I've downloaded the app. There is a couple of players in there. It's kind of funny. It's like seeing everyone talk about ownership percentage. I'm like, how many people have just like downloaded the app, put in one player and left it? Like, you know, just settle down, guys.
00:02:41
Speaker
Yeah, look, we've definitely had a podcast about that already, Stevie, so just cool your horses there. Hey, Stevie, before we get in, mate, I do have a question
Importance of player roles in fantasy
00:02:50
Speaker
for you. Are you a little bit upset with the new midfield data that's come out in the last couple of days that have made you absolutely redundant and proved your fraud?
00:02:58
Speaker
What's up? What happened? From Papowski? Oh yeah, no, he's got me iced. But he knows what he's, he does it for, that's his career. Like I'm a grand keeper. It's not, it's David and Goliath here. I'm, you know, up against it. Just a battler. I'll back you up. I'll back you up.
00:03:18
Speaker
There's been some touchy, touchy topics in the old Twitter sphere these days. I feel like the ex, there's a bit of that toxicity in the fantasy community this pre-season, but Stevie Fizz of course over at the Draft Doctors, your tweets are always much appreciated.
00:03:33
Speaker
Just touch reading that fine line between that. Between content anyway I don't think really there's too many hot topics to touch on this week and we do want to run a pretty tight ship because we know the force has to leave and we don't want to hold him too long with the vid situation as well so I think we'll just get straight into our breakouts and regression
Potential breakout players post-retirement
00:03:54
Speaker
and.
00:03:54
Speaker
I guess the reason we wanted you on Stevie as well is quite hot on these guys or knowing your breakouts and regression, given the stats you do. And I think we're keen to maybe get you on for one of the homes files episodes and those one on one interviews just to get some of your thoughts on how you do your statistical research and stuff. But could you maybe just give us a very quick, you know, breakdown of how you work out your breakouts and when you're looking for a regression candidate, what you kind of look for?
00:04:21
Speaker
Yes, so this is probably tough is generally the thing I'm looking for is openings in favorable roles. So whether it's retirements or players getting traded, I think the natural progression is sometimes harder to pick because often it means
00:04:38
Speaker
The incumbent has to, without a retirement or vacancy opening up, you're just backing on an incumbent being pushed out of that role. It's sort of like when Clayton Oliver broke out, I found that really, really hard to pick.
00:04:54
Speaker
The regressions, on the other hand, I find a little bit more easy because you try to find someone who's doing something outside the ordinary. It's really hard. It's probably like status Brownlow regression. If you find someone is doing something out of the ordinary, it's going to be really hard to back that up. And I think sort of talking about that market share, I know it sort of gets talked about by other people on Twitter in terms of fantasy points, but I don't think
00:05:24
Speaker
I think you've got to look at what's happening from an actual statistical point, whether it's marks, kicks, tackles, et cetera, when those are really out of whack, say like a sandberry last year.
00:05:37
Speaker
Oh, I'm sorry, the year prior, I guess you should say, is that's going to be really hard to maintain over a full season and indeed season on season. Like there are outliers who can perform above the norm. Like Clayton Oliver is just an absolute machine in some situations, but I find those players are few and far between. So that's generally what I'm looking for in terms of regression.
00:06:03
Speaker
And how much does age play a factor too? You looking at the old fossils and then dropping off like poor old Stado in his fantasy game over the years?
00:06:12
Speaker
Mate, his game's sharp. His game's sharp. When he was away, did you see him? He posted a bit of a, what do they call it, a thirst trap? Or whatever, I don't know. I'm like, man, this is like an ad for Viagra or something. It was crazy. So his game's sharp. Yeah, look, age is a factor, I guess, because generally there's going to be young guys pressing. So, yeah, it's a balance, I think. Then you get like Shannon Hearn, Jack Zebel, who still just crush.
00:06:42
Speaker
Yeah, I'm interested in some of our, so we're going to touch on them after our regression candidates and focusing on AFL fantasy classic, which I think is kind of harder in this sense, because I think there's sometimes obvious picks in the regression candidates, like you're saying. And, you know, maybe those older players, you just do avoid just in case we see a drop off. But yeah, looking forward to our regression candidates a bit later in the show. But first, we're going to be talking about the breakouts.
00:07:06
Speaker
And we did say I did give you guys a little bit of a briefing to try and go a little bit different because at the moment there's some high ownership players that we're going to just touch on at the top of the show. Because these are some popular players that obviously the community think are going to be breaking out they are highly owned players and people that have already kind of been flagged by the community.
00:07:25
Speaker
To have that next level of breakout and we'll maybe go around and start with a few different players I want to save a guy for you Stevie, so I'll come to you in a little bit But let's let's start with a Kitty Coleman who exploded in the grand final state Oh, do you reckon he's a chance to go to the next level this this coming year in 2024 and What are you gonna do with his early buy round as well?
00:07:50
Speaker
Well I'm not touching him with the
Essendon breakout opportunities
00:07:52
Speaker
starting squad and it's only because I want to see it's real. It's fair to say Daniel Rich hasn't been a major performer in that team for a good 12-18 months so Kitty's had some opportunities before and just because he's had one blinder of a game does not mean that he's just going to perform that week in week out.
00:08:15
Speaker
and I think we've found with Kitty he's really had hot and cold spells so I want to see if the the roll the form is up to scratch so he's just one that I've got a keen eye on but I want to see it first and the having that early by just gives the opportunity to have a bit of a watch and see.
00:08:37
Speaker
Alright, any other differing thoughts on that Kyle from just the perspective if you do ignore the buy? He's got the round two buy, so it's hard to ignore. You're probably not going to start him, but do you think Coleman can get some consistency in his game this year and be a valuable starting pick?
00:08:53
Speaker
Yeah, well, Stado made some pretty good points. It's not like he hasn't had the opportunity. I think Brisbane like to kind of share that load coming out of D-50. They don't like to have it going through one particular player, which a lot of those top sides do. So I wouldn't be surprised if they, you know, they share the ball around a little bit. They liked, you know, Wilmot's running carry, Kitty and some other players back there. So I'm not sure he's going to have enough of the ball to really push that, or let's call it,
00:09:20
Speaker
mid-90s average that, you know, we'd probably need him to be that mid-price keeper that we keep for the season. So like Stado, I want to watch him round zero. I will ask you, Stado, though, what score would you need to have in round zero for you to, you know, potentially pick him up before he's buying your starting squad?
00:09:37
Speaker
Yeah, look, it's a really interesting question because it's what I'm looking through right now in all those sort of mid prices or value premiums that have got the round zero gain is working out what's that sort of price point or rising cash over the first couple of weeks that you want to see that
Hayden Young's potential at Fremantle
00:10:01
Speaker
you're going to
00:10:01
Speaker
except that you've got a player on its buy. I think most of them, unless it's absolutely exceptional, like a 150+, that I'm just going to let fly until they're by. But I'm treating round five and six a fair bit different compared to round two and three.
00:10:21
Speaker
Yes, a fantastic point I might add there from you, Stado. Now, let's jump on to the next player that Stevie Fizz, we just got you on for this particular guy. Now, you were talking all about him last year. He did end up breaking out. It happened towards the end of the year.
00:10:38
Speaker
But is he going to take the next step again this coming year in 2024? Does Sam Flanders become that pure inside midfielder? And can he go at the monstrous 120 he did to end the season last year, Stevie? No. No, he's not coming one time. Wow.
00:10:59
Speaker
I'm really curious to see what happens with the Suns in the way they play, whether they switch to a more transition game. If they do, I think he'll be okay. Most clubs run four midfielders. He should be one of the four. He has a good inside-outside game.
00:11:18
Speaker
probably him and Anderson are the standouts there. He should be okay but I worry about what that system caps you at. I think he should be in the 90s but you know whether he has enough upside for your salary cap game that's probably up for debate. Has he automatically got the role Steve?
00:11:42
Speaker
I would think so. I mean, signed a long-term deal under the new coach. I find it hard to get away from that and his numbers were just fantastic. One of the things that struck me earlier, Steve, when you said you were looking at regressions is are players doing things out of the normal? Are there many players in the comp that can hit 95, 100 plus playing predominantly from a half forward and just pushing into the midfield at stodges like Flanders did at the back half of the year?
00:12:12
Speaker
There's not, there's not, if they do go transition, I think mid-forward isn't the end of the world, but I mean he was pretty bulk mid-field. Like I'd be pretty comfortable in saying he should be right. The only thing I'd worry about is if it's not a tight four-man group. Let's say they want to give Bailey Humphrey 30% and Dave Swallow 20%.
00:12:35
Speaker
And someone else and it like once you know if that distribution gets spread out Then you you know the whole team sort of suffers in terms of what their upside could be I think So I think is a tough player to start man. I really I don't know
00:12:53
Speaker
It's interesting, though, like, you know, if you're looking at his numbers at the back half of the year and it is 110 ish that he's going out, that's some big upside. But you're saying he's more of a 90s guy when things are normal and, you know, hardwicks at the helm and things kind of come back to standard.
Various breakout candidates explored
00:13:09
Speaker
Well I think the game style, I'm really backing in that they're gonna change to a less stoppage based system. That's my personal thought. People can think differently and that's fine and that's why they play the games and that's why we all talk like experts in January and look like Muppets in May.
00:13:28
Speaker
He started getting CBA's around 15 last year and his percentage of CBA's from that time was 43, 19, 43, 50, around 19, very nice 69, 32, 42, 52, 21 and 11. So he was probably averaging about 45% of the CBA's.
00:13:52
Speaker
during that period where he's averaging that high. So what it says is he's got some real upside, especially if his CBA's elevate.
00:14:03
Speaker
Another player with a very early buy around in round three. So I think you'd have to get something incredibly massive out of that round one or sorry opening round if you even consider him as well. Probably another player that you're going to get after his buy. If he does look the goods and he's back to that 120 average in the year and his last three there. But unlikely according to his biggest fan, Stevie Fizz.
00:14:25
Speaker
Moving on to Hayden Young, another popular player. Now, I will say in terms of breakouts, I'd say both of those players already had their breakout last year, but looking to go to that next level of premium. Hayden Young going in the inside state. Oh, actually, let's go to Holmesy, the free man or man. Hayden Young, any interest in him and are you on the hype train for the highly owned defender eligible Hayden Young moving into that inside midfield role?
00:14:50
Speaker
Yeah, Dossi, I am at the moment. The way I like to play the game is if we can get players with forward or defender status that are going to get a lot of midfield time and be around the ball, then that's what we're looking to do. And they showed Hayden Young in the back or back five games of last season, he moved into the midfield and looked good. And all the word coming out of Freo this year is that he's training full-time as a midfielder to go in there.
00:15:15
Speaker
Clearly, I am excited. I think he adds something different to Braeshawn Sorong. He's definitely not Jordan Dawson, but he's in that model of a bigger body that has a really good left foot kick. And I think he's going to add that sort of defensive pressure in there. I think he tagged Lockie Neal late last year and had his almost season-high score. I think it was a 1.19 or something like that. So there's definitely scope there.
00:15:38
Speaker
I do think we need a temper expectations though. I'm not sure he's going to be 100 plus, especially with Breschau and Sorong. We don't really see many midfields outside of the Bulldogs that have, you know, three midfielders that go 100 plus. And especially if we're banking on Breschau and Sorong to be around that 110 mark again, there's only so much ball to go around. So I think there's upside. I think it's probably going to land somewhere between 95 and 100 though. I'm not sure he's going to be that 100 to 105 player that it has been forecasted.
00:16:10
Speaker
Did I see a little bit of a cringe from you, Stevie Fizz? You're not on the Hayden Young hype train there? Oh, no, I was just looking at something on the computer, mate. Sorry, believe it or not. I'm trying to do two things at once. I'm kind of with home. I'm kind of with home. Yes. Man, you want to know what the hell we talked about last night. It is disturbing. Disturbing. But yeah, I'm kind of tempering the expectations on Young. I think anything in the upper 90s is really nice.
00:16:39
Speaker
OK, let's move on. I'm just going to touch on a few more players and I'll just just a brief comment from you guys and then we'll move into our own breakout candidates and regression. But Tristan Cherry moving into that number one rock roll with no Goldstein. Is this just a no brainer state? I mean, obviously it's a no brainer to pick him because we've got a lot of rock options, but a no brainer that he will break out this year. And you're certainly will break out. I mean, the only thing that's going to stop a break out is injury.
00:17:04
Speaker
OK, Jeremy Sharpe, a player that's rookie priced for fantasy classic, as you know, Stevie Fizz and Avid, salary cap player. Jeremy Sharpe, is he an option for you? Do you think you'll get a role? Basically, that's all we need. Will he play for Freo? Because that's all we need in salary cap for him to be valuable for us this year. Yeah, I have no idea, man. I wouldn't have thought so, but maybe. Liam Henry out. Think he can slot into that wing.
00:17:32
Speaker
Oh, they've got dudes. They've got dudes. Oh, okay. Stevie Fears, not as high on Jeremy Sharp in a lot of teams at the moment on the bench or even sitting at M8. Couple more players, of course. I've already spruicked him. Jason Horn-Francis, for me, coming in at Port Adelaide as that third midfielder. A bit of upside there. Homsey, any interest from you?
00:17:54
Speaker
I'm not for classic, mate, and not even for draft. I wouldn't have thought. I don't think he's going to increase his average enough to be even a bench option for us, especially with Potters and Rosie being the two big dogs
George Wardlaw's breakout potential
00:18:05
Speaker
in there now. But he should improve third year. But you look at a Patty Dangerfield, he took what, five or six years to really, really break out being that type of player is pure impact. So I can't see him being an accumulator that's going to get us a decent enough outlay for a classic starting squad.
00:18:23
Speaker
And I've only put this guy in here because I know everyone's expecting me to say him and obviously I would have loved to, but I've said him too many times. It's Patty Dow. Look, we know he's going to break out at the Saint Kilda in the Saint Kilda team. He's going to have a huge year. I know I've heard lots. I think every one of you guys have admitted you think at least he's got a fair bit of upside for a breakout this year. So we don't need to touch on him. Let's get into our own players and go through some breakout candidates for 2024 that we think going to take that big leap forward.
00:18:53
Speaker
Gonna throw you under the bus, Stevie, I guess. You can go first, mate. Yeah, so probably the player. I'm spruiking a fair bit this preseason who is a classic breakout is George Wardlaw from North Melbourne. Really liked the play. Obviously had a very, very interrupted year last year coming into the system. Did manage the eight games and had pretty low time on ground, but his numbers were just absolutely phenomenal. Led the team in tackles. Led the team in pressure acts.
00:19:20
Speaker
Really nice center clearance rate when he got the midfield time can play inside outside good disposal I think he's an absolute star In the making so that's probably one of those guys who I sort of spoke about the The talent progression in an already loaded midfield I just think he's too good to keep out so with a clean preseason under his belt and
00:19:46
Speaker
What he can get his average to is probably the question.
Alex Witherden's return to form
00:19:50
Speaker
He's probably in the same boat as Horned Francis, where they're awkwardly priced for your salary cap models, whether they can generate enough money to become a good starting pick is the question. I see I love him in draft, but I don't have to pay the same price. So I'm all about the Wardlaw train.
00:20:08
Speaker
Fuck, I had no idea that Steve liked Wardlaughey. I definitely haven't heard his name every single solo close to myself, Toba.
00:20:18
Speaker
Yeah, he's a star in the making, Wardlaw. I think, yeah, watching the debut and I just wasn't, I didn't know they had that sort of talent coming through with Wardlaw. So, very exciting time, Steve Fizz, and one that I'm definitely backing in as well. So, that's maybe cause for concern that I'm keen for him as well. But look, Georgie Wardlaw. I think, what I will say is, Louis, who couldn't make the podcast, we spoke about him the other day.
00:20:44
Speaker
But he was concerned that his tackle numbers might have inflated his price or, you know, his average from last year a little bit. And that's something that's maybe not as sustainable. Just maybe to touch on that, Stevie, he did have some pretty high tackle numbers early days. And for a salary cap format, as you said, how he's awkwardly priced may be due to those sort of boosted tackle numbers. I don't think anything was outside the realm of, you know, what you could expect on, you know, a week to week, like it's not going to be massive tackles every single week. But, you know, you do see
00:21:15
Speaker
solid tackle numbers bob up here and there. And again, the time on ground is so low, like it's sub 60%. So yeah, that that's the thing that like he was doing all these things in such a low TOG situation. It's unbelievable. It really was.
00:21:33
Speaker
the second year breakout. As I've said before, as I've said many times before, second year, better than the third year breakout for that big boost in points. Holmesy, take it away, mate. Give us your first breakout candidate for 2024. Yeah, this is going to be a little bit, not controversial, but I'm not going to give you a play out, but I'm going to tell you where I'm hunting for points. And I kind of want to discuss it with you boys of where you think these points will land. So I'm picking a breakout or a return to form for an Eagles defender.
00:22:03
Speaker
now that Shannon Hearn has retired and knowing that the Eagles are going to be absolute pus this year, there's going to be a lot of ball down in the Eagles back line, hopefully kick outs and plenty of cheap plus sixes back there when they realize come round three that they're not competitive and they need to avoid these blowouts. So a couple of players I'm looking at here and I don't know where it's going to land. So we know that
00:22:24
Speaker
given all things healthy you're going to have McGovern and Barrass as the two lockdown players and then we need to see who these running defenders are going to be. So there's a Brady Hoff priced at 61. Showed a bit of a ceiling late. I think he had two tons out of his last eight or so games off the back of huge marks. So Steve's going to say that that's not sustainable but you know he's shown a bit of a ceiling. I'm not sure where he could get to but priced at 60 if he could go 75 there's a little bit of meat on the bone there.
00:22:52
Speaker
Do you look at an Elliott Yeo who's never fit but priced at 70? Does he just go into a full-time defender roll back there and mop up? Does Witherden return to his 90-plus ways that he was at the Brisbane Lions? Or does Liam Duggan get more of a midfield roll but then play as more of a Zach Merritt type where he just roams in that back 50 and mops up off that half back line to try and get them moving forward? So, Stado, where do you think these points are going to land in this Eagles back line?
00:23:18
Speaker
Thanks very much for crossing to me for my first breakout. Alex Witherden is my friend. What a segue. He's the man although I do like Hoff too. I'm actually really quite impressed by him but it wasn't until I was doing the the draft kit actually that I really dug into the information about Alex and he's probably one that we've
00:23:43
Speaker
probably put a line through a few times going. Our expectations were quite high. He's only 25. In his seven seasons, four of them he's averaged 88. So that shows you that he's got the scoring power. It was only 78 last year.
00:24:00
Speaker
So obviously Hearn disappearing, I wanted to look into that data. He had two breaks in last year's season, one of which they also had a couple of their tools out. So Alex Witherden actually had to play the third tool and he matched up on Phil Thorpe and Logan McDonald in two weeks that Hearn was away. Now that's not the type of role Alex Witherden needs to play nor when they're fully fit he will.
00:24:26
Speaker
But then I looked at the other games without Hearn and he averaged 99.25. So I think Alex with it and without Hearn will be the main reward and he will get a fair bit more of the ball.
Jack Bose's potential at Geelong
00:24:43
Speaker
He's gone from not being on my radar to actually being in my salary cap starting team at just over $700,000. So I'm expecting a low to mid 90s average for 2024. And when you actually think of the little issue as well, that you look at the ins and outs of that club, they've lost a lot of experience and just brought in a bit of young talent. So they're going to need all their senior bodies
00:25:11
Speaker
22 games last year with it and there and he's going to get a fair bit of the pill. Does it count as a breakout returning to form? I don't know. His breakout from 78 is going to be bigger than Hayden Young's 89, which you brought up first up there, Dossie. So let's keep it defined. No, but that wasn't one of ours. That was one of the mainstream picks. Drop that, Dossie.
00:25:36
Speaker
Right. Well, I'll get to my breakout, which is also kind of a return to form, to be honest. But Jack Bose, my boy from last year, I'm looking at him for a big breakout in 2024 and mark my words, he'll be playing in the guts at Geelong next year, which is why I think he's going to go to a whole new level. Who the hell else do the cats have? You guys want to name their starting midfield. You got Tom Atkins.
00:26:03
Speaker
I think Steve, you'd say a jobber. Did you say he's finished to the year?
00:26:10
Speaker
You're a Tom Atkins guy, I just said. You're coming on here and telling me you're a Tom Atkins guy. I'm not, but he picked up at the end, man. He really did. I just want to say, just because I know they'll be driving the listeners crazy, someone's clicking the mouse about every half a second. So whoever's doing that, stop away. I reckon it's Steve. He's just... Shut the fuck up. Steve flicking through his palm.
00:26:35
Speaker
Paddy Dangerfield, Max Holmes, Tanner Bruin, Parford, Cam Guthrie. Yeah, just come on. Just give me some close season. I think we're every play. If it's midfield, if it's defence, Bose has got a place in that team. The Cats, I mean, they're just going to have a massive drop off, I think. I think realistically, they're going to be down the bottom, bottom end of the ladder. Don't know what your numbers in your team analysis say. Stevie Fizz there. But look, for me, Geelong is going to take a drop off. I think they're going to go to youth pretty soon. I think the first
00:27:05
Speaker
A few games are going to determine which direction they're going in, but Bose in that sweet spot of the list build, I think he's 25-26. They're going to want to sort of see what he's got this year, give him a solid role, and yeah, whether it's midfield, hopefully, or whether it's just as in defense.
00:27:20
Speaker
I prefer the midfield role obviously given they've already got Stewart down back and Mitch Duncan as well mopping up back there but I think there's plenty of room for Bose to grow especially at his price and salary cap with his sub-affected games in there as well as a 10-point injury-affected game baked into his average. What did he average?
00:27:42
Speaker
Oh, I've got to have a look. But he's only priced at $61,000. Don't click your mouse, Dos. Jeez. Yeah. And what do you think he can go at, Dos?
00:27:55
Speaker
Look, I mean, his best career year, I think it was around 80, but I think to be honest, for him to break out, we're gonna need to see that midfield time. His other best career year was when he had that mop-up roll down back for Gold Coast where he was just taking like every kick in and boosted his average from like to a 95 to a 100 for a few weeks, and then that got him up to like an 80 for the season. So I think if we see some midfield time. So just going to the point that Holmes, he discussed with DT Lemon,
00:28:24
Speaker
is if you're going to go these mid prices, Holmsey, it was the 30 point uptake that you need. Is that correct? I think it's 20.
00:28:33
Speaker
Lemon, yeah, Lemon quoted 20, but he also went on to say that, uh, it just needs to be quick. So if you're picking a Jack Bose, you really want his price to just spike early.
Karl Aemon's potential at Hawthorn
00:28:43
Speaker
And then if it does, it doesn't matter if he goes at 20 points above his seasonal average, if he gets a quick spike in cash, but yeah, from a 60 price point dose, I'd say you really want him to go 85. And I can't see it in that Geelong side. Their midfield's not as weak as you've mentioned. And if he is playing in defense, I'm sure Mitch Duncan and Tom Stewart will just let him have the pill for fun. I'm sure they don't want to get it.
00:29:05
Speaker
Yeah, cause Mitch Duncan's in for another full season at age 32. Week in, week out. I like Bose, but my problem with Geelong, cause I really wanted to pick like say Max Holmes or it was the Downer Broon. There's just so many guys run through that midfield. That seems like what they want to do. I think he's better draft pick than salary cap man.
00:29:31
Speaker
Should play some draft doci. Jesus. I'm not inviting you on the show again. All right, Steve, take off. Take your sex. I'll see you back to the draft doctors. Don't expect we'll get that one-on-one interview after I'm going to get to it. Steve, you take it away. Wait, what? Me? You got another pick, another breakout. Come on. Oh, do I? Yeah, so I got Josh Richelli. And it doesn't convince me at all. But I really want to target that Adelaide midfield. This is definitely a draft pick.
00:30:00
Speaker
Because you just did you just bash someone for a return to form? So I was like, I better scratch Carl Eamon off my list because he's not going for it. You like Carl Eamon? Go for it. Yeah, do it. Because Louie, who didn't make the show today, he was he was going to be Carl Eamon was on his pick. So take it away. Give him give him what he wants to hear.
00:30:20
Speaker
Oh, okay. Well, Carl Eamon, man, holy hell. The back end of the year, just let me click my mouse and I've got to change players. Sorry, Stater. I know the listeners are just turning off as we speak. Carl Eamon moved to the back into defense for Hawthorne at the back end of the year. Absolutely rattled off a heap of tonnes. Hawthorne struggled moving the ball. That is one thing Carl Eamon is a machine at doing. He's a massive meters per disposal player, massive meters game player. That was his strength at
00:30:48
Speaker
the last couple of years he was at Port Adelaide. And I think that's where Hawthorn realised they needed to get better at moving the ball out of defence. They can try some of the younger sort of mid forward flankerish types on the wing. So Karl Eamon went to defence and yeah, five straight tonnes.
00:31:06
Speaker
to finish the year, they were probably pretty handy teams to play outside against, but that's GWS, Bulldogs, Melbourne, like good teams. So I don't even think, you know, I don't suggest picking players because they're gonna get DPP, but I think he'll be rosterable straight off the bat as a midfielder, and then he'll pick up DPP. And I think he's a nice pivot from a guy I'll talk about later as a regression candidate
00:31:36
Speaker
in one of those teams that doesn't have a buy early.
00:31:40
Speaker
One thing I will say about Aemon, he did have a 160 which is boosting that average and that did conveniently come in one of those James Sisley suspension games. So, you know, does it change a little bit with Sisley there? Can't argue with the form. I think Sisley will probably regress as well because as Stevie said before, those marks that he was getting last season is so far out of the norm. I'm not sure he'll keep those up, but also footies played a little bit differently in the back half of the year compared to the start of the year.
00:32:08
Speaker
When teams like Hawthorne are just trying to get through to the back end of the year Maybe they possess the ball a little bit more than they would at the start But yeah, you can't argue that the finish that he had to the season and if he is lining up in that role again He's definite value on his starting price
00:32:23
Speaker
Well I just look at it this way, like all the top 20 defenders, they're all in teams that play a low stoppage game. That's Hawthorn, they're none. And they over possess the ball like mad, they're one of those teams. So like, North Melbourne will probably do the same thing this year. So anyone picking a North Melbourne defender, whoever's gonna play back there is probably in the same boat. But I just can't get over a guy like Karl Aum, who's a quality player, can run and carry.
00:32:49
Speaker
can use these good foot skills. Look, is it tough price? 86 or whatever he is. As a midfielder, I understand it's very tough. There's probably better cash-chain options, but the flag's planted, boys. The flag's planted.
00:33:05
Speaker
Love it. And yes, like I said, Louis was on the same page. I think he's put out a little tweet a while ago about him and how hot he's on him. And yeah, same. Just echoing the same sentiment from the great Stevie Fizz there. Holmesy, take his way with your next play, mate. Yeah, mine's one we've spoken about before. Another 3-0 Dockers player. I just want to talk about Heath Chapman a little bit. Priced at 54. Stato shaking his head. We're on YouTube now, Stato. We can all see it, mate. We'll go to you then. You just boot me twice.
00:33:36
Speaker
Lucky I'll put a third one. Oh, you were going to talk about him, then that's good. It shows we're on the same wavelength, at least. Well, your first one was a fence sit and a half, though,
Breakout candidates: Mitch Owens and Ben Hobbs
00:33:47
Speaker
Holmes. You didn't even pick a player, so I wish you'd named a player this time. Yeah, this one here is, yeah. For the listeners, we haven't coordinated this whatsoever. Dossy, he likes to make sure that... Sorry, boys.
00:34:06
Speaker
At least there wasn't a porn commentary coming up. If I can tell me not to click. So I went on my phone and I can't help it. I can't help it. This is your fault. This is the format we need to do the draft doctor just for the listeners. I'll be talking about a subject and Steve will just walk away, go and take a piece, grab another beer. That's why you hear me talking for 20 minutes straight. Right. Well, thanks for the content, Steve.
00:34:37
Speaker
Back to Heath Chapman, coming into his fourth year, he has had a couple of injury interrupted seasons which have really not had us see the best of him. This player is an absolute gun. He has played lockdown roles in the past as that sort of second or third tall but with Alex Pearce and Brennan Cox having those main lockdown roles.
00:34:58
Speaker
Sown up and with Hayden Young potentially moving into the midfield there is a spot there for a heat Chapman either on the halfback as a bit of an interceptor or on the wing and Priced at 54 I think there's every chance he can push close to that 80 mark and be a pretty good cash generator for us data Are you on the same sort of thinking there? Absolutely. Yep spot on the mark will said well played you've stolen two of mine, but good calls both and
00:35:25
Speaker
I don't know I don't see I love Heath Chapman but I wonder if he's a quality player rather than a fantasy scorer like he does match winning things like the spoil on the on the last dying stage of the game a couple of years ago but he does those things well like.
00:35:42
Speaker
the defensive part of his game is pretty strong anyway. So I don't know if he, whether he's more of the attacking player or we see someone like a Jordan Clark take off with Hayden Young moving out of there. And I think you sort of, you sort of mentioned him, Steve, the other week on your show about the team structure and sort of Jordan Clark was on your, your watch list in that sense, just that speed and being able to run out of defense. I think he's maybe a guy, even a winger or a defender that sort of pops as opposed to a Heath Chapman.
00:36:10
Speaker
Well, like Jordan Clark, I'm not sure he's got enough upside for your salary cap teams. Right, all right, stuff used to, what are you? That is Steve. Why don't I get him on here? Just another person to put me down. That's all right. Heath Chapman, a solid pick all around from Everon.
00:36:32
Speaker
Okay my third pick, I hope you can't steal this one, is James Jordan, so mid forward for Sydney Swans. In only his second game he scored 105, rotating inside midfielder.
00:36:47
Speaker
in his 10th game with 13 tackles he scored 110 also playing inside in round 13 2022 he went head to head on the outside with josh dakos gathered 23 kicks to score
00:37:03
Speaker
124. Since that game he has been vested nine times. So obviously he was the victim of the Locky Hunter trade into Melbourne with Ed Langdon, Locky Hunter two on the outside and their brigade of inside midfielders they had at the time. Probably not a player they wanted to lose after Harms moved on and with the little woes that they've got with Oliver but it's certainly the Swans game.
00:37:33
Speaker
He averaged 72 in 2022, only a second year in the system, and that included a sub affected 11. And with eight subs from last year and playing forward and not getting the opportunity, he comes in priced at 50. So I'm expecting a low 80s average with a bump around 30 points. Don't mind it Stata.
00:38:01
Speaker
Don't mind it at all. And we will let Stado go now as well. Thank you for joining us, Foss. And all the best in your recovery, mate. Thank you very much.
00:38:11
Speaker
All right, we've lost Stata, we've also lost Homesy, bit of a nightmare recording, Stevie, as you know, you do it a bit more low key, but gee, it's been a tough one today to finish out this recording, but we're going to push through old school style, just me and the Fizz. Can't wait to get through this. So, all right, I'm going to go away with my, I'm going to go with two breakouts here, Steve, and I want to get your opinions on these. I'm coming in hot with a couple.
00:38:37
Speaker
and very interested in your opinions here. So, it's a tough one, this one, I do admit, because they do have a pretty loaded midfield and you've already mentioned, you've already shot me down with another player who, you know, technically have a bit of a loaded midfield at Geelong, even though I don't know if they're that loaded. This team definitely has a much more loaded midfield, especially the top two guys. But I'm coming in with a Ben Hobbs breakout. And I don't know if you've heard this term, Stevie, but observable thirst.
00:39:05
Speaker
Love a man that just has that insatiable desire for the pill. Ben Hobbs, one of those guys. I know you love a man as well that gets those contested and uncontested possessions. Does a mix of them. Benny Hobbs is that man. Third highest points per minute on the roster, apart from, you know, if we exclude Will Setterfield as well, who only played the 10 games. Had 35% center bounces last year. Only 69. Nice percent time on ground.
00:39:34
Speaker
had a popped car for the pre-season which i actually forgot about didn't start the season i started the season in the vfl to start with but yeah benny hobs for me give me that stock in 2024 and i reckon he's got some massive upside even in our salary cap format stave are you interested in ben hobs
00:39:52
Speaker
Oh, I mean, I love him. I love the player late in my draft. He's... No, no. Man, you choose the hardest players. I love them all, but I just... I don't know. He's such a tough... He's in a tough spot, I think. He's in a really tough spot. It's such a loaded team, like you mentioned. They're a super, super uncontested team. Essendon and their run of matches to start the year. They're all super uncontested players. So, I mean, I'm looking...
00:40:21
Speaker
He's a gun player, but I don't know, man. I don't know. It is a tough one. It's the same one thing with Bose. I love the pick.
00:40:30
Speaker
If you go with him and it works out, you've got a leg up. So... I'm a genius. Yeah. I like to always go for the all or nothing picks, though. You do know that's why I always fail in my fantasy classic sides. But yes, Benny Hobbs, I do love that. And I'm sure a lot of the Essen and fans will be getting on him. They do. One player that's actually really popular owned and I'm interested in your thoughts on this guy as well, given I'm sure he would have come up in your rankings of forwards, which you've probably done already.
00:40:57
Speaker
Elijah Sartis is being a popular pick in fantasy classic believe it or not Steve is one that popped off the page to me pretty highly owned in classic would you get around a plus I'm talking about a plus twenty kind of point rise I think he's priced around fifty do you have him going you know seventy plus what do you think about Sartis.
00:41:17
Speaker
Yeah, he's one of those guys, like there's so many of these guys, if they get mid-time. I don't know, I don't know. There's not much of a foremind for him. That's kind of the problem. You can say things like, oh, he was a gun junior. So many of the guys in the AFL were gun juniors. That's kind of why they're in the AFL. I don't know, I don't know. That's the honest truth on him. I don't feel confident.
Regression candidates discussion
00:41:43
Speaker
Yes, I'd absolutely pick him up in my draft, but this is where I struggle in salary cap compared to draft is if I punt forwards and I can go Rochelle, Conor McDonald, Sardis, all these guys late. And it doesn't matter if they flop, but you really just need to hit one of them. Whereas in salary cap, obviously you need them to sort of work out all of them.
00:42:06
Speaker
Yeah, you need it to pop. Yeah, you're not wrong. You need to, like, you have to limit these kind of guys. And I think that's the thing in this show, like, of these more risky picks, you definitely need to limit the sort of amount that you back in, unless you're that confident that they've got the role. And if we maybe see it in a pre-season game, I mean, sometimes even that's not enough. Like, we've seen that before, where players have the role in a pre-season game, they're going to come round one or come opening round. We see a complete switch. So, I mean, at least we get a dress rehearsal in that game.
00:42:34
Speaker
Say with Sardis, like if he gets 30% inside midfield time, which we say is good, where does he spend the rest of the time? I kind of like the Bose pick more because if he gets 30% midfield time, there's a chance the rest of the game is off half back. Well, we know those two areas are the highest scoring portions of the ground. So I like that more than the guy who spends some time forward.
00:42:59
Speaker
Yeah. And this final pick, Stevie, I reckon you're hot on this guy too, which is why I wanted to bring him up. And this is honestly, as much as I love stats and I feel like stats have been just a huge part of the conversation this pre-season. And obviously with a guy like the great Jayden Popowski popping out stats on Twitter and making them more accessible and even yourself, Steve, with your great statistical analysis the other week, which you thought was going to be the biggest flop, but ended up being your greatest episode.
00:43:28
Speaker
of the team analysis if you haven't checked that out head to the draft doctors and listen to the team analysis it was absolutely great work by yourself mate and a solo podcast which is even tougher to record but this is pure gut feel I can't really find the stats apart from center bounces as we've as we've mentioned many times he hasn't had that exposure yet.
00:43:48
Speaker
Mitch Owens at the Saints is just the gut feel pick for me. I bloody love this guy. I think he reminds me so much of what happened to Josh Dunkley in his career prior to popping. Remember Bevo playing Josh Dunkley forward then because he was such a good contested mark. Then popping him in the ruck weirdly in these roles because he could just do it all.
00:44:08
Speaker
Mitch Owens for me is Josh Dunkley 2.0 and I reckon this year is the year that Rossline unleashes the beast. You've had Jade Gresham where, you know, potentially we see him take up some of that usage. He actually had Jade Gresham 27% of center bounces last year for the Saints.
00:44:25
Speaker
Obviously, there's another great man, Patty Dowell, I expect to go in there and take some. Do we see Mitch Owens go in there as a bit of a different look, as a big bodied midfielder that can really get it done? Still split his time up forward where he can snag a couple of snottage rolls, but yeah, Mitch Owens, mate. I reckon you're a bit of a fan, but for me, the stats are hard to back it in, but Mitch Owens, I love a breakout this year, third year.
00:44:49
Speaker
Yeah, I think he hit on the head. Great player, great man on man player. A bit tough in fantasy, right? Yeah, great to watch, great to watch. And that's kind of the failing of fantasy, isn't it? It doesn't always reward the players who are great to watch.
00:45:08
Speaker
Jade Gresham was surprisingly his center clearance win rate from what he attended. Phenomenal. Phenomenal. You know, you know, the whole observable thirst thing actually started with Jade Gresham. Like the guy wants the pill so badly. It's not funny. It's never translated to fantasy, which is weird. But the guy screams for the pill like no other man alive. So, yeah, be interested to see how he goes in his new colors as well this year.
00:45:32
Speaker
Now, let's get on and obviously we've lost a couple, so we probably won't get the names from from the other guys, but we maybe put them out on on Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it. But, Steve, let's get your regression candidate for 2024. And I did I did preface this by saying I didn't want to draft name, obviously, and from the other guys as well or a player that's not going to be highly owned. I kind of wanted a bit of a spicy take because
00:45:56
Speaker
You know, I think there is some players that we kind of know are going to drop off or, you know, just the age factor, like I mentioned at the top of the show. And who's a guy that is maybe popular in classic circles who you think is going to have a drop off this year?
00:46:09
Speaker
Yeah, well, home to ruin just everyone's picks, it seems, because I was James Sicily. Yeah, the marks are unsustainable, just completely unsustainable. So there's no way that continues in any way, shape or form. He's got a 10 point drop off coming his way. And I think he's...
00:46:27
Speaker
An interesting player because he's not going to have that early buy. So I think people will the general public I should say will gravitate towards him as a starting pick Whereas I think he's probably an upgrade target because I still think you'll finish in the top eight defenders But you'll probably be be able to get him at a cheaper price.
Upcoming plans for The Draft Doctors
00:46:45
Speaker
Although they do start with again a heavy low stoppage schedule So he might actually come out of the gate pretty well. I'll risk it though. I
00:46:54
Speaker
You'll risk it. And just for those that missed the bit of the team analysis last week, now you say, you know, the marks are unsustainable. Just, you know, sort of maybe delve into why you think that is. I know you explained it fantastic and go listen to that podcast, but just a quick recap.
00:47:07
Speaker
Yeah, well, there's only so many marks and so many marks one player can take. And historically, once you get, oh man, you've put me on the spot in terms of what the rate is, but I think it's once you get over, is it eight or nine percent of a team's marks, you just regress the next year. And especially for a defender, I can't imagine Hawthorne are going to be wanting to play chip, chip, chip, chip, chip around the back, not moving the ball.
00:47:34
Speaker
particularly fast the fans won't tolerate it and it's not a good way to win matches so it's and it's not just a bad meters gained overall it's meters per disposal so they're quite low as a team I think maybe bottom or second bottom something like that
00:47:50
Speaker
Alright well from from a highly-owned defender let's go to another highly-owned defender for my regression candidate I struggled a bit to be honest with this one because when you are talking players that are classic relevant I feel like coaches are pretty switched on and not targeting some of those maybe more obvious kind of starting picks that we might be talking about.
00:48:11
Speaker
But my regression candidate is actually Jack Sinclair this year and after a huge another career year last year following a career season the year before that. I mean, I don't know if enough's been made of this guy's rise. He just went from, you know, absolutely sort of an afterthought in the same system to becoming
00:48:32
Speaker
Literally a top 10 player in the league based on player ratings last year. He was number eight. I think the year before that he was 12. But I'm just wondering now the Saints, they have addressed a few needs. Where does he play next year? Is he defender, midfield? Probably a mix of both like he did this year.
00:48:49
Speaker
But I think as we see Wanganeen Miller jump into becoming more of that go to distributor and defense with his penetrating kick, I think he's going to take more kick ins, probably steal a few off Sinclair who scored about 12 points from kick ins last year. Plus the arrival of Liam Henry as that other user that they really need another another good ball user. I think Liam Henry will be that whether he's on the wing or a back flank as well. I think he's going to obviously play some wing, but.
00:49:15
Speaker
Just a little bit of a, you know, if he does play some more midfield as well, could we see that Jaden Short effect? I think there's just a bit of food for thought as a Jack Sinclair coming off two bonkers career years. It's basically just like, can we see this guy keep doing what he's doing and and whether the Saints have addressed enough in their own internal team, bringing in a few players as well.
00:49:34
Speaker
you know whether he's whether that's sustainable and it's probably just something that I personally think like he should be a target for all opposition teams as well he's just that damaging as I said he's a technically a top 10 player in the leg based on the ratings and that's probably how you see it is him being that absolute go-to guy for the Saints but I don't think I see massive drop off but I see maybe a tag game coming for him and that to me scares me off you got any thoughts about Jack Sinclair heading into this year Steve?
00:50:03
Speaker
Yeah, it's an interesting one. He's obviously one of the fantastic outside players of the game and has been for a little while. I think even when he played, he wasn't fantasy relevant, particularly as a wing, but champion data had him rated pretty highly just to throw a bit more shade on you. Sorry mate. Just non-stop hate all the way through. It's absolutely not a guess. I'm used to it on the shirts.
00:50:26
Speaker
Yeah, look, he averaged well, theoretically the only way is down. St Kilda were an extremely low stoppage team. That's how they want to play. They need a bridge between midfield and forward. So maybe he plays a bit more forward and they try to get him delivering the ball inside 50, I don't know.
00:50:46
Speaker
All right. Well, I reckon that'll wrap us up. Stevie Fizz, I do want to thank you very much for finishing the show with me solo here and going through just a couple of regression candidates. Like I said, we might pop out a few of the other guys, their selections. We did have a few issues on the recording front this episode. And, you know, surprisingly, Stevie, you're the technology savvy one that stuck around the entire time here, mate. But well done.
00:51:11
Speaker
Obviously, we know where to find you on The Draft Doctors. You can find us at Pod Pod AFL. But what's to come for listeners of The Draft Doctors heading into, well, draft season coming up in a couple of months. We've still got a little way away.
00:51:24
Speaker
Yeah, it seems it seems closer than ever, though. I was talking to Mrs. Fizz and she was like, oh, it's eight weeks away. That's that's close. Like, you know, we've got a few couple more weeks of ranking shows. Nail that down and then release the kit and the draft simulator and hopefully draft and start some footy, man.
00:51:44
Speaker
Love it, man. Thanks for joining us. Keep an eye out for the draft kit by the draft doctors and the draft simulator that Stevie mentioned. Trialblazer in the community creating the first mock draft simulator out there. So go check that out when it drops. When's that coming? Hopefully around January 26, whatever you want to call that day. That's generally our target. All right. Thanks again for having us, for coming on the show, Stevie. And we'll see you next week.