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Sydney Swans AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
3k Plays1 year ago
The Sydney Swans have some of the most fantasy-relevant players in AFL Fantasy 2024... DESPITE having the dreaded opening round bye.
Thanks to the slightly more forgiving round 5 bye, we may see enough value from some of our rookie and mid-price options to pounce across the early round of the season.
Dos, Lewy, Statesman, and Harmey delve into all things Bloods, including Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Errol Gulden, James Jordon, Chad Warner, Jake Lloyd, Matt Roberts, Angus Sheldrick, and much more!
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Lineup
00:00:03
Speaker
you
00:00:16
Speaker
G'day and welcome back to the point of difference podcast, if you will. We are doing our team preview series talking all things AFL fantasy and this episode is all about the Sydney Swans.
Sydney Swans' 2023 Performance Overview
00:00:32
Speaker
I have with me five time top 100 finisher, Stado. I've got two time top 10.
00:00:39
Speaker
hat winner John Harmey and I've also got the OG Pod Pod member here Lou who's always cracking into that top 1000 and yes Dossie of course we know his results speak for themselves. Let's talk to first of all the Sydney Swans and their team numbers for the year before we talk about our specific players and I'm going to go through some interesting numbers from the squad last year for
00:01:03
Speaker
Finished eighth on the ladder obviously made the final series but lost to Carlton by just the one snag in that first final there. They were the 11th best team for fantasy scoring. Sixth best for intercept possessions but interestingly enough second last for intercept marks.
Swans' 2024 Prospects: Taylor Adams and Brody Grundy
00:01:22
Speaker
Seemingly they found a way to survive after losing Paddy McCartan and a bunch of injuries to their
00:01:28
Speaker
defensive stocks by intercepting the ball around the ground but not so much in the intercept mark area, they're also a poor clearance team so second last for total clearance differential ahead of only west coast and that was in part due to some poor rock work in the middle second last for here and here to advantage differential so,
00:01:51
Speaker
Also, share that to Liam on Twitter who suggested I look at some of the differentials rather than total stat numbers as they do show a bit of a clearer picture of how the teams are looking rather than just the raw numbers. And then let's also look second most pressure acts and tackles. So typical of the horse system getting that pressure around the ground. Stado, they're your team. Can the swans go bigger and better in 2024? But more importantly,
00:02:18
Speaker
Well, we see a bit more of a fantasy-friendly game from the Swans. Look, it is a little bit potential. I don't think horse overhauls everything.
Player Trades, Retirements, and Fantasy Impact
00:02:28
Speaker
I think there'll be a slightly different model in the inside roles. So the biggest weakness they actually had was the clearances. And that's why the tater, Adams, and that's his strength.
00:02:43
Speaker
That's why the recruit is there. James Jordan as well was coming in to slice up that pie, probably moves a little bit more outside because of the Adams model. And I think Brody Grundy sort of probably gives them a first on that had a probably dominant ruckman for such a long time. I can't recall.
00:03:04
Speaker
So something new and it'd be interesting to see how they utilize that. A little bit of a question mark of exactly how all that young talent fits in. So whether they still end up with a three or four that are fantasy relevant won't be a surprise.
00:03:29
Speaker
They haven't been hugely relevant for a bit of time and Errol's Popty's head up after Lloydy sort of dropped away but I think there'll be a few more this year and it's probably more based on the price point rather than what the ceiling is.
00:03:45
Speaker
Well that was a big long-winded answer to how the swans are going to go in 2024. Let's talk about some of those ins. They're going to look at their trade period and draft and stuff of what they did. So Taylor Adams came in as you mentioned.
00:04:02
Speaker
Brody Grundy also coming in to sort those hit outs out. James Jordan and then Joel Hamling was the other one coming across from the Dockers outs. Lance Franklin retiring of course a huge huge out for them there but playing a little bit less in his latter years still an absolute dominant force so he's gone. Tom Hickey retired as well handy in that ruck line for them and yes seemingly a career resurgence late in his career Tom Hickey so after
00:04:30
Speaker
been at the mighty wiggles there patty mccartan retired as well after unfortunately suffering all those concussions a fantasy favorite will gold delish so he's back to the mighty bays in glen elk so i might sneak down and watch him i'm just down the road from glen elk so that'll be a good thing to be able to say we'll go to an action and then probably are you know the mid-season draft to a team here and dylan stevens went away to north melbourne via trade so
00:04:58
Speaker
I mean aside from obviously body not some massive outs but the ends are huge for them. The bar and on the other hand probably one of the biggest talking points for the swans because they do play that unfortunate opening round.
00:05:12
Speaker
They've got the round five by so and again in round twelve, so they've got the two buys, but stayed with the round five by you've been talking about some, you know, especially some of their options here are those mid price guys. That's probably enough time for us to earn some coin.
00:05:30
Speaker
It absolutely is. The only ones you want to avoid are your premiums and probably being realistic. There's only one of those and that's Errol. So he's top dollar. You probably want to let him see what his role is going to be. If he has an absolute blinder of a start, the reality is his price is not going to go up too much, if at all, because you've got to remember
00:05:55
Speaker
the actual total amount stays and the early start of the season is when the rookies and the mid prices go up. So everyone else's break even effectively moves up. So if he averages the same as he did last year, he'll be cheaper rolling out of his buy.
Brody Grundy as a Fantasy Pick: Pros and Cons
00:06:12
Speaker
But the mid prices and some of the potential premiums are cheap enough to give you basically four rounds looking in. And if they're not keepers, you can sell them at their higher price.
00:06:30
Speaker
If they are, you can retain them. And of course, there's two of those we're talking about there. The round 12 by lands really well. Again, out of those second set of buys, it's only 15 that's rather concerning.
00:06:47
Speaker
Let's get into the popular picks and that's 10 plus percent owned for the swans talk and Brody Grundy to start with Louis 677 K. Coming off the back of a year spent with Max Gorn having to play a fair bit of forward time. The dominant fantasy ruckman that he's been in the past. What's he going to do this year for the swans and is he just a smash play 53% owned at the moment?
00:07:11
Speaker
Yeah mate, I think he might be a smash play and at that ownership percentage, which would probably be a fair bit higher in reality, if he can return to those 100, 105 type scores, then honestly you're probably going to get left behind being priced at 75 and everything coming out of the swans is that Brody Grundy is totally fit, looking great, he's the number one and dominant ruck in there.
00:07:36
Speaker
I think we can write off 2023 a little bit obviously shared the ruck duties with Max Gorn which really cut into what he was able to do. Previous to that he went at 93 but part of that was injury and then still got the two tons in there so he's got the ability to score.
00:07:54
Speaker
You mentioned Tom Hickey earlier, and he was able to go 82 in that swan system. That's seven points higher than what Grundy's actually coming in priced at. Hickey's never even gotten close to the fantasy heights that what Brody Grundy's been able to achieve. For me, I think Brody Grundy is pretty much just a set and forget guy. The only caveat with that being is, unfortunately, he does have an early buy.
Taylor Adams' Role and Injury Concerns
00:08:22
Speaker
I think it might be around five.
00:08:24
Speaker
Yeah, correct. Look, I love Brodie Grundy when he was playing at Collingwood, like a great player, that sort of thing. I just want to throw a flag out there. There's only two players last year from Sydney that averaged over 90. Errol Gordon and Chad Warner, and Chad Warner averaged 92.7.
00:08:49
Speaker
maybe they're just not that great a fantasy side. But anyway, we'll see. I just wanted to put that out there.
00:08:57
Speaker
Yes, I think just the thing, sitting at the back of a fantasy coach's minds is just how dominant a fantasy rutman regardless of the old situations I suppose that he's been in. We even look at last year and like I said on the other podcast, very happy to see DFS Australia's with, without numbers back. So last year, 2023, without Max Gorn, Brody Grundy,
00:09:21
Speaker
Averaged one hundred and two fantasy points even just last year he went a hundred and six hundred nineteen and eighty one so. I'm getting is how me just pee-pooing because we're positive about another club that wasn't Essendon remember is rattling off sixty two names that were you're all gonna turn up. We finished a dose just let the great man.
00:09:49
Speaker
Right. Okay. Well, let's, let's get on. I think a lot of coaches are came for Grundy for good reason. Harmony's just flown out the flag, you know, potentially the ceiling may be limited given the system of the Sydney Swans, which is a totally fair, fair point to make. Taylor Adams, on the other hand, Stado. Maybe even with some of that info that Harmony just said, especially because those two top names there
Debating Taylor Adams' Fantasy Value
00:10:12
Speaker
he's talking about, including Warner, they are midfielders. That's the hope for Taylor Adams is that he moves back in there. 691K.
00:10:19
Speaker
in a fairly hard system to score at, if you're not Nick Daikos at the Pies, mid-forward, 27% ownership for Taylor Adams coming across.
00:10:30
Speaker
Yeah, I think there's about 20 points upside in him. He won't go and do the 114 that he's done before. I think he'll be a sub 100, but I don't think he'll be too far away. Been talking about that sort of model, their weakness, his strength, it's the perfect four. He's had a fantastic pre-season. We do need to accept it's Taylor Adams, so it comes with risk.
00:10:56
Speaker
But I'll make this point, and it might be worthwhile with Yo with Fife and a Taylor Adams, although you need to be careful how many you have in here. We have a little security blanket for us with risks this year. If one of these risky players is named round one, they are playing.
00:11:19
Speaker
The next two rounds, you are only 18 players of the scoring. There's your automatic protection. Does that make sense? So if Taylor Adams does an ankle round two, there's someone else taking his score. You're not left with his score on the field. So there's a little bit of protection of risk for round two, round three, and to a lesser extent, round five, round six.
00:11:46
Speaker
But of course that's not free rein to put every injury risk player onto your squad, because if you go with 30 of them, you are going to get burnt, but it probably, it's an opportunity to take a risk, a punt on someone.
00:12:06
Speaker
I've probably got a bit more trepidation about Taylor Adams, certainly probably presents value at 76, but going back to 2022 back when Nathan Buckley was coaching the Pies and everything was a bit more fantasy friendly there, he only put up the 82 average and understanding that
Errol Goulden's Potential Regression
00:12:24
Speaker
post round 13 or whatever it was Buckley wasn't there still a little bit concerned about what that floor can look like sometime so he went 57 62 61 in there then we look to 2023 there's this narrative that he was parked up in in the forward line wasn't getting CBA's couldn't score but he still went at 40% across the year 76 it doesn't jump out too much does that
00:12:49
Speaker
Does that go up much at the Swans? When we look at the Swans CBA mixes over the last couple of years, they've pretty much had the one guy in there taking up the big minutes and then there's a bit of a spread with the rest. So it's a big roll watch, I think, in the preseason. Thankfully, we do have that opening round.
00:13:07
Speaker
One thing I do really like about Taylor Adams though is he's got the pies match up in round one which is the game we really want him to pop in. I think he's got a little bit of screw you about him coming up against the pies. I can just see him getting in there and getting his hands dirty and maybe putting up a nice score early which would be fantastic because I'm sort of looking at him more from a
00:13:32
Speaker
price rise early, then jump off post buy more than a keeper prospect for Taylor Adams. And just a bit of concern too, that the pie has sort of tapped him on the shoulder while they're in their premiership window, just to say, Hey mate, we don't actually want you anymore. We're going to play some of these kids quite often.
00:13:51
Speaker
the athlete has a little bit of an ego. They think they can still get it done. I'm not retiring Taylor Adams just yet, but the coaches do know what they're talking about majority of the time. And just that little action in of itself just concerns me a little bit like Ken.
00:14:08
Speaker
It's a hard one that though, I mean, sometimes it's about money as well, you know, balancing out their salary cap space and all that sort of thing and not wanting to lose younger players as well. Just the thing on Taylor Adams, you said the CBAs there, I'm pretty sure it's, there was only five games last year where he had 50% CBAs or more. So it's actually very, it's quite low, his proportion of time around the middle. And he's, I think he started in the comp in 2014,
00:14:37
Speaker
And his price at $76, is he? Something like that. $75, $76. Yep. Yep. The only time he has ever averaged that low is in his rookie year. From his second year onwards, he's always been higher than that. So I still feel like there's a bit of upside in his price. All right. Let's move on to the next player in the popular picks for Sydney. There's still a couple more to go.
00:15:04
Speaker
Errol Goulden, an absolute gun last year, 17% owned. He comes in at $1.02 million this year though, Louie.
00:15:15
Speaker
Might be hard to pay up that amount, actually I'll throw this one to you, Stado. Expensive players you have said to avoid, but Goulden seems to have a different type of fantasy game about him. That observable thirst is off the charts. Let's just hypothetically say he goes the 120-130 in that opening round.
00:15:35
Speaker
can you go there given the round five by? Personally, no. So I've picked Goulden as a bit of a regression candidate. So I think there'll be a bit more of a split that'll happen in the midfield because of the personnel they've got. And Adams is one of those. So I think he gets a regression. I don't think it's any more than five points. So I still think he's going to be a really important player in the season.
00:16:02
Speaker
He's such a good user of the footy in and outside. I just think he gets a lot more attention firstly. And I think that sort of the grump players go in there. So he's probably going to be potentially more outside.
00:16:19
Speaker
Alright, that's an interesting take. I love him. I probably want to bring him in at some point and I'm almost hoping he does have a maybe a down game or two before the buy and maybe bring him in after that. I'm very keen on him as a fantasy player and just think he's probably the next best bet of someone to average 120 if we do see it.
James Jordan's Mid-Price Potential
00:16:40
Speaker
I don't know. I just love the golden factor. I think he's an awesome player. And like I said, the thirst is just probably the most thirsty player I've ever seen. Plus add the skill level in there. It's crazy. James Jordan, a big talking point. We've already mentioned him a couple of times. Louis, I think you've been going back and forth with James Jordan in your squad. $454,000 as a mid forward. Come across from Melbourne, but a little bit cheaper price to take the gamble with him, maybe.
00:17:08
Speaker
No, I haven't been going back and forth at all, mate. He's been well entrenched within my forward on this pre-season. Priced at 50, he's quite often shown that he can exceed that quite comfortably. It's just the sub-rule hasn't done him any favours. I was doing a little bit of research on the other side of Christmas and in 2023, in non-sub-affected games, he went at 67.
00:17:33
Speaker
Now that's 17 points upside on what he's priced at. I'm not saying it's all linear, but it's a good thing to take note of. 72 across his career, which is a 51 game sample size. So that's pretty nice. That puts it up to 22. And interestingly enough, his career high is 72 as well, which was in 2022 off the back of zero.
00:17:56
Speaker
0% CBAs. I'm expecting a little bit of midfield time at the Swans, but he's also a very capable wingman and linkman within whatever side he's in. Coming in at 50 in a forward line where we're really trying to find some nice options there, I think he might present a bit of value early.
00:18:17
Speaker
that round 5 buy I think we can actually use to our favour because if he makes a little bit of cash across those four games then we can then pivot to, it could be a rookie, it could be a mid-pricer that pops but I think he really provides a lot of flexibility.
00:18:33
Speaker
He's definitely one that's up there in the social media rankings for how much content's going out about him from the swans as well. A lot of players seemingly sprucing his name from within the four walls is to have a bit of an impact already. So, yeah, looking forward to
Chad Warner and Luke Parker's Consistency
00:18:47
Speaker
that. And almost 12% of coaches are on board with you as well at the moment, Lou.
00:18:51
Speaker
Let's look at the big dogs from last year the top three averaging players from the swans we've talked about golden already at number one he averaged. Close to a hundred and thirteen there at number two another guy that. Apparently loves his own workout on the football field in terms of does check his fantasy school when he comes in I remember hearing that on the trade as one so. You know Chad Warner averaging ninety three last year stay though thoughts on him as a prospect for us this year.
00:19:20
Speaker
I just wonder whether he's sort of at his ceiling. I think he might be a highlights type player rather than bulk possession type players. So I think he might be round his ceiling mark. One of those players I think it's tough to, you know, unless you're certain he's having a breakout with the early buy, we're talking about a lot, but you know, it's one that you'd have to be certain. Looking at number three, Luke Parker,
00:19:48
Speaker
Over 30 years old, averaged 90 last year, 811k. I think he's over 30. I don't want to dismiss that, but he's getting towards that age. And I think for me, I just can't go there, especially given what Harmony said about the system currently not being super fantasy
Rookie-Priced Players: Roberts and Cleary
00:20:04
Speaker
friendly. Obviously, the third highest averaging player and he's under 90 at 89.9.
00:20:10
Speaker
Let's take a look at the rookie price players, because there's a couple of interesting ones here. I might just throw this one to you, Hami, and just talk about any of these players that interest you. I'll just rattle off a few names in the low 200K bracket. I think there's a couple that stand out more to others, but Joel Hamling, $324,000 coming across. Matt Roberts at 245K. I think I want to talk about him a bit more. Jacob Kastantly.
00:20:38
Speaker
Corey Warner, Jack Buller or Caden Cleary, any of those guys sort of marking their, taking their mark as a rookie price option for you? Yeah, look, I have been interested in Matt Roberts and I have been the whole time, like during the preseason because of a few good things he did last year and then unfortunately he lost his spot because of injury. So, but I'll allow you to touch on that one. The other one I will sort of say is
00:21:05
Speaker
Caden Cleary, he got bid on, he was an academy pick, I'm pretty sure. And the same thing happened with Errol Gooden when they were sort of pretty highly touted. And Gooden slid, I think he was picked dirty too, but I can't remember what pick Cleary was. Same sort of concept though, he's been in their system for a long time. And if he gets a game early, even though he's a kind of bit of a shorter guy, I reckon he could be a bit of a look.
00:21:33
Speaker
Alright an interesting name to be thrown around I think the one I want to talk about to use data quickly is Matt Roberts two hundred and forty five thousand dollars. He showed some very good signs in the brief moment that we saw him last year but he's apparently playing a bit of half back in Match Sim and if he's actually named in that starting squad he could be even an on field option for us if he's getting the game time.
00:21:55
Speaker
Yeah, he's one player I'm really hot at, which is, the reality is a bit of a surprise thing. He burnt the living crap out of me last year. I had two rookie options to bring in sort of that mid-year time. And I actually needed someone that had to play on field for me. So I brought him in and I think he was injured and out on a 10. So that made my weekend absolutely wonderful, but really raid his talent.
00:22:24
Speaker
good user of the football, confined it as well, got a good junior pedigree. He looked like he was just trying to crack into that 22 and he was underway. His form looked fantastic and then got injured. So as long as the reports are fully fit and as we're hearing about some good reports that match him,
00:22:45
Speaker
We see that in the practice game and opening round. He's worth a really good punt at only 245. Mature age, I'll have to check his age, but I think he's 20 or 21. So he's got that sort of experience of doing some
00:23:02
Speaker
some work at the club to build up his form. He's 20 years of age, 184 days. So he turns 21 in the first three months of the season. So got some experience, got some preparation time.
Callum Mills' Role Post-Injury
00:23:21
Speaker
He's been working at his trade at the lower level, so I think he's worth a punt.
00:23:27
Speaker
I love that. Joel Hamling, I know I just know a listener talked about him or requested we talk about Joel Hamling. I don't think I could go there at $324,000 data. Just a quick thought as well. Yeah, too much. All right. Let's talk about some of the pods for the Swans. Jake Lloyd has been a popular fantasy option for us over the years at $810,000, Louie. I know he was in a few teams last year, but is he an option for us in our defensive line?
00:23:57
Speaker
I think the buy really stitches him up here and looking at what he's done over his career, it's quite funny. It looks exactly like a bell curve. He improved every single season up until 114 in 2020 and he's come down every single season since. So for that reason, I think he's someone that we just pass on to start the season and perhaps we trade into at some point later on.
00:24:21
Speaker
And Callum Mills, he's $759,000. We know he's injured, but ramping up training. You know, he's not going to be an option for us in our starting teams, given he's probably not going to be playing in
Quick Mentions and Podcast Wrap-Up
00:24:34
Speaker
the early going. But as an upgrade option, thoughts on Mills' harmony, like what's his role going to be this year?
00:24:41
Speaker
I actually think his role is going to be down back when he gets back into the team, but I don't know, you'd have to wait for a month after he, a month after he's been back to even considering because he's got to, you know, get into the team and prove his fitness. So I'm not really interested, mate.
00:25:01
Speaker
OK, and for these next few players, we're running already pretty late on the pod, so I'm just going to go yes or no in terms of interest for these players. I'll throw it around the room. Isaac Heaney, Stado. No. All right, that was a long pause there. Louie, James Ro bottom. No, no.
00:25:28
Speaker
Nick Blakey six hundred and forty four K seems pretty cheap army. All right Braden Campbell Stado even cheaper five hundred and eighty nine thousand dollars that beautiful peg that he's got. Beautiful peg but good draft player.
00:25:48
Speaker
And finally, Angus Sheldrick, probably the best keeper prospect almost of some of those guys. They're not not the best, but one of the deep keeper league players, but 513 K. Unfortunately, Louis, it's probably a bit too expensive.
00:26:03
Speaker
No, I like it. Average 82, if you get rid of his sub games, which I think were like a three and a zero, time on ground, super low. We're talking 57, 55% and then jumped up a little bit. In round 17, he got injured. So that score's partially affected as well. I think he's someone the swans really highly rate. And if he does get CBA's and he did in his debut season, he was floating at around sort of 35 to 40%.
00:26:31
Speaker
He might be one of those guys of a few, including sort of your George Ward laws, your Matthew Johnsons, formerly your Patty Dows before he got injured that might be that mid priced player that breaks out. So I'm going to be keeping a massive eye on him. I'm pretty keen.
00:26:47
Speaker
I love it. Although there's that issue that he's probably the grumpiest about the recruits of James Jordan and Taylor Adams. Or maybe I'm reading between the lines here and saying Louis reckons he might be ahead of him in the pecking order based on what he said earlier about the, uh, the fossils coming into the squad, especially the Taylor Adams factor.
00:27:08
Speaker
They need to get games into him, so I think there could be a good chance that he is. Everything that I've heard this preseason is pretty positive, so it remains to be seen, but at least we get two looks at him, one in the official preseason game and then one in the opening round.
00:27:26
Speaker
Alright, looking forward to it then. Angus Sheldrick, keep him on your watch list. Another nice player. I like how we get a little few extra players out of doing these team preview pods. So that'll do it for the Swans though. Make sure you're following us at Pod Pod AFL on all the socials. You can check us out on YouTube as well on X, Instagram, wherever you want to go to check us out. You can find us at Pod Pod AFL. Be sure to leave a rating as well on Spotify. We're trying to get to 250 this pre-season ratings. That's a hefty goal, but
00:27:56
Speaker
I don't know guys, it's pretty easy to do a Spotify rating these days. You just click the three buttons, the three little dots, hit that rating and away you go. We'll see you on the next team preview pod. It's going to be the GW Miss Giants.