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The Smallest Sample Size! Round 1 Review & Questions | #PODPod
74 Plays4 years ago
Rucks are cooked, key forwards and defenders are must-haves and Jaidyn Stephenson a top six forward. Welcome to round 1!! Dos & Lewy dissect all the ins and outs of the opening round of AFL Fantasy Classic and answer your listener questions!
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Transcript
Introduction & Agenda Preview
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference podcast, a brand new AFL fantasy classic podcast brought to you by the Keeper League Pod. On this episode, we'll review round one and answer your listener questions. You're listening to the Pod Pod.
00:00:24
Speaker
G'day
New Schedule & Listener Engagement
00:00:24
Speaker
and welcome to the Pod Pod. I'm Doss here with Louie and Louie. We're officially going ahead with the podcast. Weekly, we have our own feed as of, I believe, either this podcast or next podcast, Louie. It's exciting times. Yeah, pressure's on now, Dossie. So now we've got to perform this season, I think.
00:00:41
Speaker
That's right. And your feedback would be appreciated as well. We want to make this pod as good as we can get. So we'll listen to that feedback. Let us know on Twitter at Pod Pod AFL or DMS. Personally, I'm at HK DOS. Where are you, Louis? At Louis AF. But enough of that. Round one. AFL fantasy classic done and dusted. Louis, how did we go? Yeah, it's all pretty real now, DOS. I don't know about you, but I was checking my scores pretty much religiously all weekend. Oh, I was.
00:01:07
Speaker
writing every single free against, kick, mark, the whole work. So I had an okay week, Dossie, so probably like a lot of coaches. I didn't win out on rookie roulette, which my score reflects. So I had an 1861, which I'm not thrilled about, but I'm not upset about either. I think that's maybe about par this week.
00:01:29
Speaker
Yeah, it's not too bad. I got the nineteen fifty eight. So I'm pretty stoked. A late change. I think how similar compared to our team reveal last week. How many changes did you make? Because we sort of jokingly said, well, I'm usually the panic trader at the at the tail end of deadline. But it sounded like I reckon you made a few a fair few changes since the podcast last week. Or is that inaccurate?
00:01:50
Speaker
No,
Round One Review & Scoring Trends
00:01:50
Speaker
that is inaccurate. Yeah. The only thing was that Jeremy Cameron. That's right. Because of the injury. He got injured. He had his hammy. So I think that turned into slime. I think that's the team I revealed anyway. You know, there's a thousand before preseason. And if you looked at my team after that show, it completely changed a fair bit since then. You took a hit, didn't you, Doss? I did well. I wish we got that on camera.
00:02:15
Speaker
I did absolutely well after you guys gave me a roasting. I sort of switched things about. I changed to a dual rookie ruck as well. So went loose, but it certainly paid off. Anyway, this isn't about us though, Louie. We're going to go through our round one review. But first, just a few thoughts on the round. Any takeaways that you had just off the cuff?
00:02:37
Speaker
Yeah, so Thursday kicked us off, Dossie. Jaden Short, which obviously had that massive 169 in the preseason game, playing half-back, backed it up again. Thursday night, half-back flanker, had the role that we thought is going to be sort of fantasy upside this year. And we saw that trend continue throughout the series, or throughout round one. And we also saw that Ruckman also continued to suck.
00:03:02
Speaker
Yeah Louie, rucks absolutely sucked and we probably saw some relevant stuff maybe for your draft leagues as well in some key position players like your defenders and forwards going well but small sample Louie we have to be careful don't we? Yeah definitely the thing with the round one is that it's usually a massive outlier in comparison to the rest of the season that's because coaches sort of catch on to the trends really early the ones that we haven't even seen in the game yet so
00:03:26
Speaker
Look, take it with a grain of salt, but there's definitely a lot of data there to suggest that, you know, there's a few good things coming if you're shrewd with your picking. And is your gut feel with the rucks being cooked? Do you actually think, are they cooked for this season? Like I know, because we're talking about small sample sizes here. Are the rucks, is your gut feel that this is going to be a trend or, you know, adapting and stuff like you're saying with coaches? I don't think
00:03:54
Speaker
Me personally, I think that we might see a ruckman, the top ruckman, not average over 95 this year, which I mean, that would have, Grundy was one of the highest ones, or if not the highest, apart from Flinney at 99 or whatever with a high stoppage game. What do you reckon?
00:04:10
Speaker
Yeah, so I mean with rucks, I guess we're seeing less stoppages, which doesn't help their scoring with the hit outs. We're seeing less tackles across the competition, which doesn't help their floor. And we're seeing that the ball is rebounding from defensive 50 to forward 50. So all these ruckmen that used to rely on these marks, tackles, hit outs, they're not there anymore.
00:04:32
Speaker
Yeah, so on those tackle numbers, Louie, I looked at the numbers from 2017, 18, 19, and 21 this season. So 2020, excluding that. And I looked at every single team in the AFL, thanks to Footy Wire, of course. So looking at every team from those seasons, which includes 18 teams from each season. So it includes like the 2017 West Coast Eagles versus the 2018 West Coast Eagles.
00:04:57
Speaker
Right. Gotcha. So there's 72 teams sample size, obviously only a one game sample for our 2021 crop. But in the tackle stats, 2021 teams made up the bottom 13 teams in that sample, if that makes sense to you, Louie. So 2021 teams, 13 of the bottom teams were the 2021 teams.
00:05:17
Speaker
So the only two teams up in the upper end of the standings were the Saints and the Bombers actually putting in tackle numbers. So they were extremely low tackle numbers is basically the takeaway there and whether that continues or not is something to look out for.
Player Highlights & Fantasy Implications
00:05:30
Speaker
Yeah, it's interesting how much the man on the mark rules play into that. I mean, obviously there's more space on the ground, less time to be able to catch a player, tackle a player, but yeah, probably need a few more rounds, but it's really interesting, isn't it? I think one thing that you pointed out as well, cause I had some similar amazing stats on the inside fifties with similar numbers that we could look at, but you sent a number through as well on the group chat saying 2020 round one had very similar adjusted averages for
00:06:01
Speaker
2019, 2019. So that's why I was saying round one sometimes can very much be the outlier because coaches don't really, I mean, coaches sort of practice their game plan in the preseason games, but you don't really know what they're going to serve up until round one. So I think it's a little bit of that. And look, there were some upsets in round one, so I can tell you Chris Scott wouldn't have been expecting to get the L on the weekend. So
00:06:23
Speaker
Yes, I don't think any of us were. Let's get to our round one, game by game review as well. And we'll start with the Thursday night game, Richmond versus Carlton. Louis, takeaways there. Dusty looks back to his absolute best. Looks in Brownlow form, doesn't he? He was able to do it all. And I think
00:06:40
Speaker
We saw that in the Amy series as well. It was in very low time on ground though. So he was probably off the radar of a few coaches. I think we did mention that he really looked in ripping Nick, but we wanted to see some scoring and boy, did we see it against Carlton. He does love playing against him though. Usually.
00:06:55
Speaker
That's it, like the messaging all pre-season was, whoa, how good is Dusty? We already knew how good Dusty was, so a lot of us didn't sort of buy into it, and he showed it on Thursday night, and I think he's going to show it again, because like I said, I think he wants that second brown low. Now, what do you reckon about a straight swap with Dangerfield to a Dusty type? Is that sort of a trade that you'd be looking at, I mean, given how amazing he did look?
00:07:19
Speaker
Definitely. I mean, um, you go down from danger to dusty, so you can even pocket some extra cash and fix up a rookie. That's a great move. Now we're talking on a, on a Monday night, obviously Dangerfield's tribunal was on the Tuesday, but we'll wait until the Geelong game to talk about danger. Other players from this game, Sam Walsh, didn't probably score as high as some coaches would have been expecting. I've certainly got him in my team, but he looked amazing and he was getting those center bounces.
00:07:45
Speaker
Oh, he looked so good. He was probably behind Dusty as best on ground. I thought he just worked so hard in the contest and, you know, that 95 in most circumstances, I think sort of 125. So yeah, great, great game by Sam Walsh. And I mean, in the coaches that don't have him as well, he's probably a similar price to a Dangerfield. He's still one you can keep on your radar as well.
00:08:06
Speaker
Definitely. Jaden Short, he backed up some of that form, didn't he? He was in the 90s, wasn't the 170 that we saw in the Amy series, but certainly one that would have been happy coaches performing for him there in this game as well.
00:08:18
Speaker
Yeah it was good to say that the Amy community series wasn't just a flash in the pan, he was able to back that up. Really glad he didn't go 170 because there would have been a lot of hindsight calls going on I think. Yeah, was there any other players in this game that sort of tickled your fancy from the classic perspective? Oh look, Sam Docherty just chugged along and got a 91 I think.
00:08:37
Speaker
that was enough to show me he's going to be there about the top six defender so I don't mind if you bring him in and Patrick Cripps looked pretty good but sort of not the game that he didn't break out and get that 120 that you want to see from Cripps before you pick him. I reckon we're probably talking about this in this fact that with less stoppages going around if that does if that trend does continue as we said small sample size the contested bulls like your Cripps players
00:09:06
Speaker
How's he going to get the un... It'll be more uncontested peel and Kripps isn't renowned for his uncontested peel. He loves getting the contested ball. Yeah, it depends how you look at it too, because obviously there's less rotations, there's longer quarters. He might just spend more time up forward, kick more goals, you know. So it's really, it's a bit difficult to look at. And it looked amazing in the first half as well. I think he was on track for a big score then anyway.
00:09:28
Speaker
Alright onto the Friday night game and that was Collingwood going down to the Western Bulldogs scoring 69 points there and we'll talk the key names here and we had Brody Grundy of course the 85 points but ended up being one of the highest scoring rucks for the round despite disappointing coaches that started with Grundy as well.
00:09:48
Speaker
Yeah, so a lot of coaches would have been really flat with that 85 after Friday night's game. But yeah, pretty stoked by the weekend. It looks pretty good, doesn't it? So that put him up there with one of the top highest scoring rucks this week, I think. Yeah.
Midfield Rotations & Performance Concerns
00:10:01
Speaker
I mean, aside from Flynn's the only one that comes to mind that that scored much better than him. And that's about it. Maybe a McAvoy at 88, I think.
00:10:10
Speaker
The reason I like Grundy Doss is because, and we've heard it all before, he plays like a midfielder, so we might be seeing that these traditional rockmen are losing points and round ones, like we've said, gonna keep repeating ourselves. It's a small sample size, but the fact that Grundy is able to play as a midfielder, link up in play, may be really good for him.
00:10:30
Speaker
Yeah, able to get disposals around the ground rather than just those, I guess, the long down the line kicks that maybe aren't happening anymore, the intercept possessions as well as the hit outs around the ground. He can get a hit out, but he can just win disposals around the ground, like you said, as a midfielder. And he didn't get those contested marks on the weekend. I mean, Team English was actually monitoring him. It was a really bad game from Grundy overall.
00:10:50
Speaker
I think the new rules, if they are, again, if they do continue, Tim English is just one that stands out as a guy that seemingly can play pretty well forward and then come into the ruck. He's almost going to be one of the much better rucks this year, in my opinion, if things do continue this way. He looks good. Jack McRae, brained it.
00:11:10
Speaker
This is what we come to know from Jack McRae, so he's averaged 123 or something before. There's a little bit of concern about how he scores with that star-studded Bulldogs midfield group, but JL136, not a bad way to kick off your fantasy season. Yeah, and continued to get the centre-vancer tendencies as well. In the AME we saw it, he was the leading
00:11:31
Speaker
center bounce attendee and he was again in this game as well so that's something that we're worried about that he'd go out to a wing with the inclusion of players like Treloar because Treloar did play in this one as opposed to he didn't in the Amy series but Louis you've spoken to me off air you're slightly concerned in the sense of Treloar you reckon he didn't get any center bounce attendances or very few yeah too very few in this one you reckon that's going to raise up as his fitness improves
00:11:57
Speaker
Well, I mean, Treloar was always going to play round one if he was relatively fit because he had the match-up versus the Pies. It was just too perfect. Gilman Lachlan was probably on the phone to him. So, mate, you got to play this for the ratings. So, look, he was clearly underdone. He was able to burst away from stoppages and sort of look like the old Treloar, but clearly they were managing him. He was out stuck on a wing, scored sort of the 58 or something like that. My concern is that that's a bloke. That's not going to be stuck.
00:12:26
Speaker
on the wing. I mean, he's going to go straight into that guts eventually when he's fit. So how does that affect the Bulldogs group? Do they just rotate week to week? I don't know. Like it's tough to pay 890K or whatever it is now for Jack McRae. Yeah, it's going to be tough. I think it's one to look out for though.
Ruck Strategies & Player Analysis
00:12:43
Speaker
Now, one with the other player that was pretty popular heading into round one was Josh Dunkley, forward eligible. And he performed pretty well with 107. He's won the IMK Gion and I spoke about it on last week's show.
00:12:56
Speaker
I'm worried that he's going to be one that gets his CBA sacrificed as more people come back like you. He didn't get a sacrifice in this one. He's also a player that relies pretty heavily on those tackle numbers to score, to build a solid score.
00:13:12
Speaker
And the Bulldogs had the highest disposal game of the round. When those disposals aren't there, is he going to be able to survive as purely that sort of... I think you mentioned Louis last week as well. He played more of an accountable role and you said he'd build his score by tackles. Are you more worried seeing low tackle, small sample size that he maybe isn't going to be the big, big premium scorer or are you still pretty confident in Dunkley?
00:13:37
Speaker
Look, I'm really confident in Dunkley just from what I saw. It's amazing saying that after 107, I understand. Yeah, I'm just reading between the lines a bit with other factors. Whether the Bulldogs are just going to be like this every single week is another question. If they are, we should just own every single Bulldog.
00:13:52
Speaker
He looks seriously good, Dunkley. So he scored the 107, which is great, but his actual output from a football sense was so much larger than that. I thought Dunkley was one of the best on ground for the Bulldogs. And there was a lot of good players that night. So look, I don't think you can bring him in now. Yeah. Because there's been no questions that have been answered for why they still haven't been answered. So you can't bring him in. Maybe you can if you've got danger. You can probably bring Dunkley in if you've got danger.
00:14:20
Speaker
Okay, well most, I think a lot of coaches will have that conundrum this week and you're saying Dunkley, you can check that off, maybe a Dusty or a Dunkley, that's going to be something to toss up. Yeah, I'd probably lean towards Dusty just. Yeah, me too. Bailey Smith, let's talk about him just quickly here, a huge score. Playing on the wing though, not many if any center bounces as well.
00:14:42
Speaker
What do you think of Bayley Smith? He's still cheap. He was around the same price as Sarong and he actually had an injury affected score in his score from last season as well heading into this year. People would have been happy if they started with him. But can you go and chase a Bayley Smith especially with the Matt Rowell injury as well that we'll touch on later? But is Bayley Smith a target you could consider?
00:15:03
Speaker
I think you can consider him. We know he's a good scorer. It's just tough. Is he a fourth year player now? Third year player? Sort of priced awkwardly at 590k. There's a few other blokes with lower break-evens now or they've had more reliable scoring in the past.
00:15:22
Speaker
It's really tricky. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody did it and it paid high, high dividends. Two guys I'm looking at in the future. We got Daikos and Treloar scored really poorly, but they made it. Daikos. I know. 19. Yeah, he was one I was considering. After his A&E performance, I couldn't, and he's backed it up with a very rancid game. Can you imagine if you started him? 19? Nah, you couldn't. I can't imagine it. I'm glad I straight away from the path.
00:15:48
Speaker
Imagine if you had him in row. Yep. Saturday games, Melbourne defeating Fremantle and Maxi Gorn, let's touch on the rock. He scored 73 in this game against Lloyd Meek. A lot of people probably put the captaincy on him up against the noob. That was the first game of Meek, but only 73 points concerning. And saved his score, Dos. He was on like something crazy, like 20 points at halftime. Yeah.
00:16:16
Speaker
Didn't look good. No. It did not look like the old Gorn that we know. No, not at all. But what do we do? Hold strong? I think if you've selected Max Gorn based on the little amount of data that we've got, you've done it because you want to set and forget your rucks. Exactly. So you cannot trade. So you've done that because you've wanted to save a trade. There's every chance Max, and he probably does, goes on to average 110 and is
00:16:42
Speaker
one of the top two rucks this year. If you trade him out now, you're probably using two trades to get him back in, maybe three, because he's going to be expensive. I don't know. So much cash on the table, but we can't trade premiums at this stage of the year. We have to wait for more sample, more of a sample size to really get a, get a feel of if this, let me ask you this and this applies to all the ruckmen. Okay.
00:17:04
Speaker
So your premium Ruckman, let's say it's Max Gorn, goes $73, priced at $950K. You trade him out to, let's say, Toby Nankovis, you say $400K, use that elsewhere, fantastic. Might be a banger, yeah? Yeah. But then Max Gorn, the week after you trade it in, goes $120K.
00:17:26
Speaker
And then he goes 120 again, and then he goes 120 again, because he's still got three more rookie rockmen to come up against up until round four. We know what Max Gorn can do. It depends, like, do you want to have that sort of... Imagine the feeling if Max Gorn goes on to just average 120 for the rest of the season, you traded him after round one.
Game Reviews & Surprises
00:17:45
Speaker
I'd rather take the punt and just pop the 80k loss in salary and maybe pick a better rookie.
00:17:51
Speaker
It's just going to be so hard given we saw only a couple of really great ruck scores in round one. I can understand coaches that would be wanting to trade him. I think neither of us can feel the pain right now because neither of us started with him. But I think if you do have him, you do have to stay strong. Like you're saying, the risk of getting rid of him, he's still going to be one of the best rucks. You almost have to just eat that, eat that cash, try and find it elsewhere, find value in your other trades and hope that having him having the best
00:18:19
Speaker
potential ruck in the game, he's going to hold you in good stead and he outscores the flins and the meeks in the long run anyway. That's what I think, but it's also important to remember there is no right answer. We don't know how the rucks are going to work with you. In fact, it's more up in the air than ever. So look, trust your gut because it's your fantasy team. At the end of the day, at least you can say, look, I thought it was going to go one way, I went the other, I gave it a crack. So back yourself.
00:18:45
Speaker
Any other major news here? We saw Tommy McDonald top score as a key forward. That probably led off some of the key forward news that we've sort of been having this whole round just feeling like they're scoring better. And you see Cam sent us a message on the waiver wire, a screenshot of the waivers just showing all key forwards and key defenders essentially in the draft leagues available and being really good scorers this round.
00:19:10
Speaker
Tommy Mack, you can't choose him in Sailor Cup, just something to look out for. Andrew Brayshaw looked really good in this game, but was there any other really guys that you're super tempted by out of this game? I think James Harms getting 86, despite showing nothing in the AME series, that was probably pretty solid.
00:19:28
Speaker
No, I definitely don't want to talk about James Harms, Dossie, just a terrible footballer in general. I want to talk about Hayden Young. Okay. Gave us that 71. That's what we wanted. 350K. That's going to be a nice little cash generation sort of bubbler type pick there at D6. I just wanted to say that Caleb Sarong did what we wanted to see from him too.
00:19:47
Speaker
Did he though? 73% time on ground. That's so annoying, isn't it? Is that going to be something that continues? Scored 85, which is solid, but he was only priced at 82. You really need a 10 to 15 point bump at that price. Yeah, but that was a pick I could have easily have seen going 65 round one. Fair enough. Being able to actually get his break even. There's still that upside. I didn't actually catch that game, but at least you can see the eye test, and I think him getting an 85. That should be enough for you.
00:20:16
Speaker
Yeah, Adelaide upset over Geelong. None of us saw this coming. I stacked my team with a fair few cats, not gonna lie, just out of the gates to see if I could get a cheeky bump early. Did not pay off, Louis. No, and I did the same. I was planning the same as well with Jeremy Cameron. Yeah, we were gonna put him in bag 10, we reckon, last week.
00:20:34
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, 3% of the competition tipped Adelaide. No one expected this. Sorry, 3% of SCN competition tipped Adelaide. So no one was expecting this. I think the fantasy numbers kind of reflected that as well.
00:20:49
Speaker
Yeah, it was absolutely surprising, but what we got out of this danger, probably going to be gone for a couple of weeks here. Yeah, two weeks. Two weeks. Anyway, so prepare your trades. He's gone. We've talked about a few options. We'll probably talk about a few more before the end of the show. Laird, gun, absolute gun pick. Midfielder, there was no question about that, was there? Midroll was real. If you didn't pick him, you've been living under a rock.
00:21:13
Speaker
I want to talk about the rookie James Rowe coming out of the gates a massive a massive rookie score over 80 and now he's got a negative nine breakeven. Do you consider him a guy that is inverted commas must have territory for rookies?
00:21:29
Speaker
Uh, depends on what trades you have to do this week. So if you've got a few premiums, you have to fix up, maybe you've got danger in route, obviously not a must have. If you've, if you've got the luxury of being able to adjust a rookie and it's not got a break even as much as minus nine or as little as minus nine, I think you've got to jump on it. Okay. Yeah. So you're not mean Harrison Jones, you know, it might be in a Tom Fullerton.
00:21:54
Speaker
Yeah, but you can't bank on an 80 plus from James Roagan and we can wait an extra week. Is that your sort of takeaway? You can if you have to, basically, but you'd want to jump on now if you can, if you have the ability. But you know, what I'm saying is, could you go like a danger to a row on field and upgrade to a big dog in the midfield or the defense? Because I've seen a few people toying with that. Is that something that you would want to do or avoid that? And, you know, have a big amount of cash in the bank or not?
00:22:22
Speaker
No, not at all. Small forward in probably what's going to be one of the worst teams in the comp. I'm predicting anyway. So look, he gets up the ground and I think he will be an okay scorer. Sort of that 50 to 55. Maybe that's enough, but yeah. Look, I don't think he's a must have. I'd probably chase him this week if I could.
00:22:40
Speaker
Yeah. Next week I think you missed the boat. Yeah, fair enough. A couple of other players I want to talk about in this game. I'm really looking hard at Locky Scholl now. He's a guy that we look at people that you need the confirmed role and a confirmed solid score and
00:22:55
Speaker
Lucky Show was a guy I was looking at in the pre-season, didn't really like his Amy score. We were actually at the game there, Hef and I, watching Lucky Show, watching the Port Adelaide, absolutely spank Adelaide, which is why we thought they were going to get absolutely pounded in this one.
00:23:10
Speaker
The Lucky Show, he actually salvaged an OK score in the Amy after starting off incredibly slow. I think he was the third or fourth highest crow scorer in a really tough game. And that's saying quite a bit for a guy considered sort of an outside runner. And he turned up in this one. I'm kind of all about him, to be honest, getting him at his mid 400 price. Is that chasing mid price at the wrong time of the year or is that a smart little move there, Louis, with a 30-odd break even?
00:23:38
Speaker
I don't think so. I mean, um, what he was able to do in the Amy community series was he got to like a six at halftime. A lot of coaches jumped off, but he was able to get to about 73, 73 in the second half. So that indicates that he's able to score and they were getting smashed in that game. Yeah. Comes in competitive against Geelong 102.
00:23:58
Speaker
Yeah. I don't know. He ticks a lot of boxes, Dossie. I don't think you're chasing Lachlan Scholl more than you're chasing Nick Hine, Jaden Stevenson, Oleg Markov. I don't think he's any more of a reach than these guys.
00:24:10
Speaker
Yeah I like it and also I mean given he did well last year as well late in the season with that sort of wing roll and given he's coming now the rules benefit a guy that can run all day like Schol and has an amazing peg like he does. Yeah I really like that pic. A cheeky pod as well for the hashtag pod pod Louie Isaac Smith.
00:24:31
Speaker
Did alright in this one, available as a forward. He's strung together a couple of nice games, had a pretty solid score in low-ish time on ground for him. He spent 89% time on ground in this game and he scored a goal late and could have had another one I reckon too late in the game.
00:24:48
Speaker
Has he got forward status as well, Doc? He does. He does have forward status. It's an interesting one because you think the rules would favour him more than most. Well, it would have turned up. He had a shot on goal in the last minute or so of the game or, you know, to bring him back really within close closing distance within the last few minutes. How much is he?
00:25:05
Speaker
He's, I think you can bank about a hundred-ish, maybe it's a bit less than that than to go from Danger to Isaac Smith. Just a cheeky little pod. Might be a cheeky sideways pod, I think. Yeah. Maybe from Rao.
00:25:20
Speaker
oh okay you're looking at he's 627 so you do really make 160k off of a danger or yeah going up a little bit from around anyway they do have Brisbane this week who knows where that goes everything we have no idea what's going on at the moment in the in this uh weird and wonderful season let's get on to our next game though Essen and Hawthorn
00:25:39
Speaker
Close one there, Hawthorn getting the chocolates. And this was an amazingly high scoring game. Early days as well. Mitchell and Merritt. Mitchell started on the bench, I reckon, for the first solid amount of time. Because I had a mate watching it with him. And he had Mitchell. He's like, where's Mitchell? I checked the AFL app. 0% time on ground for a solid amount of time to start the game. Came home like a steam train.
00:26:03
Speaker
The reason I think he probably started on the bench is, and we've heard it from players before, round one is like a final. So I think you probably don't want Titch out there, your first center bounce for the season, young Essendon side. I mean Jai Coldwell was a state boxer when he was a junior.
00:26:19
Speaker
I don't know, I just think maybe they were preserving him from that, you know, sort of instant impact of AFL football, that first 10 minutes. Just chill out a bit. Chill out a bit. So come in, wait until everyone's gassed and then get to work. That's probably what he loves to do. Straight away. Show him that.
00:26:35
Speaker
Yeah, I say come home like a steam train. Pretty sure he just had a solid score basically every single quarter, but I just mean he came off the bench and just started immediately. It was like possession, possession, possession, possession. Had a heap of handballs though. The other guy in this game, Zach Merritt, you kind of faltered his start as well and those two guys looking early signs like top eight mids, aren't they?
00:26:56
Speaker
Yeah, massive, massive targets for top eight mids, I think. And maybe the, maybe one of the cheaper weeks that you can get on Tom Mitchell, I think. Yeah, it could be, couldn't it? You just had to see a sign from Mitchell, whether he was back. He certainly was. Yeah, so he's got the 126 break even next week. So, you know, probably stays about the same, but you'd keep an eye on him. I think he comes up against Richmond, give up lots of marks. Yeah, you'd like to see him go. I'd put a captain on him if I had him this week.
00:27:26
Speaker
Ooh, and you might too, because you've been talking about trading to me, haven't you? Yeah, yeah, I have. Nah, but yeah, those two looking really good. Other players in this game, Nick Hind, he was all as advertised, and Louis, I mentioned it last week. Yeah, I was lying for this one. Moneyball, as you said, we actually looked at it, and Nick Hind, I think, scored what, one more point than Adam Saad did this weekend as well, like 99 to 100 or something like that. It was very, very close. Yeah, what do you reckon on Hind? He's so cheap, and he's available as well.
00:27:55
Speaker
I might have to put my hand up that he's actually a capable AFL player. Yeah, it's tricky because he's probably priced a little bit awkwardly now at 440k. You wouldn't have thought that ceiling is there.
00:28:10
Speaker
but it does continue on with the trends of Halfback flankers scoring well. So I think this is the last week you can get on him. I just worry about his floor. Yeah, it's a worrying sign. We haven't seen, we haven't really seen it yet. He's played the AME series. He got the 75 in limited time on ground with the shoulder and then drops a ton round one in a high scoring game. They have a tough fixture coming up though.
00:28:34
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. Or what you'd imagine would be a tough fixture. They've got Port, Saints, Sydney, Brisbane coming up. Then it's probably a little easier with Collingwood Carlton. But yeah, with the break even being so low though, you might as well, if you're going to take the punt, it has to be sort of now 29 break even. Or are you willing to wait another week and see if this is truly a real thing happening? No, jump now. If you want him, jump now. All
Ruck Strategy & Matchup Impacts
00:28:59
Speaker
righty. In this game,
00:29:02
Speaker
Jai Caldwell as well, dropping the ton. So what are your thoughts on him? He's a little bit more expensive. He's over $100,000 more expensive. I was wrong on Caldwell. I went against the sign. I posted down on the Twits. I think it was the day before lockout. I was going for a stroll. Happened to come across Caldwell Street, Louie. Interesting. Yeah. Sometimes it's a sign, isn't it? It was a sign and yet I didn't back it in. So he dropped the ton.
00:29:27
Speaker
hurts but can we still jump on what we can he's very cheap but are you going to he's one that I'm still concerned with Louie okay so I've probably got a hot take on Jack Caldwell okay he's someone I'm not considering at all yeah and someone I rolled out of my starting squad probably a few weeks ago as well because
00:29:47
Speaker
I didn't watch this game again, but I've spoken to a lot of different people, Hami, yourself, that all watch this game. He brained it, didn't he? Apparently he was one of the best on ground. He was pretty good. He scored 104. Yeah. It's not massive ceiling. I mean, it's good enough for a four though, isn't it? I mean, it's close to what Dunkley got. Is he going to play like this every week? I just think that there's a floor of 60 there and it's probably more weeks than not going to be close to that 60 than it is 104. He brained it.
00:30:15
Speaker
But also the other thing is he played the lowest time on ground of any player in the Essendon side. That is what I was concerned about. So that was what I was concerned about and why I didn't start with him. So 74% time on ground is probably even more than what I was actually expecting him to get. He got in the 60s in the Amy series and we've never seen what he can actually get time on ground wise in
00:30:38
Speaker
proper AFL standard playing that midfield, inside midfield role, which is clearly what he's going to be at Essendon. The other problem is, I reckon he, I mentioned to you in last week's show as well, I reckon he's about fourth or fifth in line at centre-bounce of tendencies. I'd be really interested to see when the CBA's drop tomorrow, I think.
00:30:56
Speaker
where he sat in that pecking order, and if Andy McGraw actually came in there, I reckon he was attending a few, but I'd have to, I was only half watching that game. Louie, I will admit, I was very much not watching that to my full extent, but I want to see where Andy McGraw sat on the CBAs.
00:31:15
Speaker
One other thing with Coldwell is that he had nine tackles too. So he's been a tackler over his career. Is nine tackles a game sustainable? No, you'd probably take maybe four off of that being generous. All of a sudden that's an 80 and that's his best game.
00:31:31
Speaker
Yeah. I'm not interested. You've got less, I feel like you've just got less risk banking 100K and getting hind in if you don't have either. 100% I'd pick hind over cold. I'm really riding a cold well here. I just think that there's a lot of positivity out there about him. And yes, there's a lot of positive signs, but you do need to go against the game sometimes. And I think those are reasonable reasons. I've got to back in the reason I didn't pick him in the first place. Exactly. And that reason whilst he scored well in this one, it was a very high scoring game for the round.
00:31:59
Speaker
Yeah, I'm still not interested. McAvoy and Draper, though, were two rucks that did do well in this game. And the one thing I took away from it from a Draper point of view, because I nearly started with him, I mentioned in my team review, I had him in my team. Kind of still wish he was sitting there, but I did do a restructure, couldn't fit him in. 84% time on ground is really promising if you've got him or if you're considering Draper, because last
00:32:21
Speaker
season. He did sit around that, but that was in the limited time on 16 minute quarters. So to see him play a full game with 84% time on ground, that's, that's really good. Good sign. Yep. And your, what about McAvoy as a defender status? Were you still impressed with him? I think he scored around the 88.
00:32:38
Speaker
Yeah, it was nice to see him score well alongside Segla. I think he's probably put his hand up to say that. If you haven't already started McAvoy, that he is still a viable option as a little get out clause if you're interested. I think he's going to have a relatively low, sorry, high floor. Yeah. About 70 if he's playing Ruck.
00:32:56
Speaker
And I reckon this game as well, Louis, probably where you look at if Gorn was the rock in this game, he would have scored monstrous, you know, the nature of this game compared to the nature of other games.
Player Performances & Reassurance
00:33:07
Speaker
And that is one thing that we just it's so hard to tell right now, but.
00:33:12
Speaker
It's all about that nature, like, you know, DFS, for instance, I was playing a bit of DFS on the weekend. It's like, as soon as I saw a game that had a little bit of wetness, a little bit of dew on the ground or a little bit, you know, raining, like the GWS Saints game, you're like, okay, the rocks here are actually going to be legit.
00:33:28
Speaker
whereas a game where it's just dry weather like over in the west. I reckon that was sort of a little bit of an outlier where wits actually did pretty well in that game despite it being a dry game and sort of sailing around the place just because that game was played completely different. It's just matchup dependent this year seems to be something that's
00:33:48
Speaker
Small sample size Louis but I'm getting a bit carried away I think. And Connor Downey just the zero didn't actually make it on ground so I don't know. We did know that beforehand. Yeah I feel like a few coaches would have been burned by that though. I reckon I reckon you're right. Brisbane going down to Sydney that was another upset of the round. The key name here though. Errol Golden.
00:34:08
Speaker
Wow, we didn't have that. And we were massive on him on this podcast. So that's a good little tick for us. He was fantastic. Three goals. And he'd be your number one bring in if you don't have him already as on your rookie power rank. You ask about a must have rookie. This is a must have rookie. Forget James Rowe.
00:34:26
Speaker
Eric Gordon. Guy that turns up in his debut. Callum Mills, very good in the midfield, but do we trust a guy, sort of seems that up and down player. This game was one of those contested games in tight, bit wet weather, et cetera. And he, he's a contested player. I don't know if he can do this week to week, Louis, but he is in frame to be a top six defender. So what do we think?
00:34:50
Speaker
Yeah, it's tough because we still saw that he was able to take six marks, so we can find it on the outside. Makes you wonder that when it's dry, does he sort of revert back to his half-back sort of instincts and, you know, seagulls for those marks. Yeah. I'm buying it. I'm buying stock in Keller Mills. Yeah, me too. I've got to say, I've swung around on that one, just playing midfield now. And yeah, that's... I think he's a top six defender. And if you're looking at him this week, he's a fantastic option to bring in.
00:35:17
Speaker
Love it now the two big names in this one that didn't fire Jake Lloyd and Locky Neal 76 and 68 for those two. You mentioned with Max, I think just the the ringing message that we we have to come across here is just trust your primos, right? And and that's the same with your Max Gorn, same with your Jake Lloyd, same with Locky Neal. You need to fix up other areas of your ground. It's just
00:35:39
Speaker
what we sort of live by as well. But seeing Jake Lloyd, he'd come off no real pre-season games, et cetera. 76, that's okay for your first hit out. And Lockie Neal, 68, though, concerning? Not really, no.
00:35:53
Speaker
No, you're not worried about either of those two guys, just hold strong. I'm never worried about round one scores. No. Whether they're good or bad. No, you never trade the Premos round one. You never do, unless you've got a danger and he gets himself suspended. North got belted by your mighty pair. Do you want to take us through the big name on this one, which was Jayden Stevenson, I think.
00:36:11
Speaker
you and I are both just going back and forth on Jaden and whether or not we believe in in in this in this height because he's played wing he's played a bit of midfield inside just playing getting some CBA's he definitely was attending a few there just doing what he wanted basically
00:36:28
Speaker
We're worried about the fact, no Cunnington, no Jed Anderson, they're the two inside Bulls there. They're going to be the two inside Bulls there. And then Jamont, who's the wingman? So do they need that forward punch? They couldn't score in this game. So is that going to be something going forward where Jadon Stevenson has to roll himself forward?
00:36:44
Speaker
Look it's tough, Doss, because they do have a surprisingly good amount of midfielders in their depth, but I think if you can play like that, you know, he's been a big name for them. North aren't a very relevant club, so being able to sort of sprook Jaden Stevens and out there as their next star.
00:36:59
Speaker
I think he's got that wing roll. I just, we've seen it two weeks in a row now. We saw it in the Amy community series. We're a little bit iffy because in the practice game he played forward. Round one, he plays in the midfield versus Port Adelaide. Yeah. Typically a hard side to score against, but it wasn't just that he went a hundred like hind, was it? 132. Yeah. You know, not many players have that ceiling and we've seen that ceiling before from Jayden when he was a junior.
00:37:25
Speaker
So now that he's finally playing this role, he's not at the magpies where he was pigeonholed forward. Still average 80 as a forward. I don't know. I think with a 25 break, even there's a lot worse risks you could take than Jayden Stevenson. And you're looking at him as a guy from the dangers rather than sideways-ing to a Dusty or a Dunkle if you don't have those big premium names. You're pretty happy banking those a couple of hundred K and using that elsewhere right now to fix up and find those value picks around the ground.
00:37:55
Speaker
It depends how you use the excess cash, I think. So, I wouldn't be throwing it on a rookie to get Willem Drew on the ground, for example. Yeah, yeah. Well, talk us through, though, what would be something acceptable to you that you do a Stevenson in for danger?
00:38:12
Speaker
Right, so if you're going danger to Stevenson, what's that about 250K? Something like that? I think it's only about 200. I'll look it up while you discuss. Well, so straight off the bat, you'd go 50% of the competition had Matt Rao. He was 530K or something, I have to lock out. So straight away, you can go to a big dog there. Might be Jack McRae.
00:38:33
Speaker
might be Josh Kelly, might be Zach Merritt, somebody like that. Somebody that you can rely on that's gonna be able to still score you these sort of 110s, 120s that you were hoping for from danger. Might just be a Dusty and it's a straight swap. Yeah, I think it's about 264, quick math. I reckon there, Louis. So it is quite a bit of cash that you can just swing around there. So that's good to know that. Also like a sarong that we mentioned before. Maybe you weren't happy with that 85. Okay.
00:38:59
Speaker
go and get, you know, Zack Merritt. Go do it. You got 260K and maybe you got 60K there for the next week. Just think about how you use your cash this week. Yeah, I love it. Drew and Fantasia though, you mentioned both of those guys. They were solid. Would you chase either of those? I don't think I would either.
00:39:16
Speaker
wouldn't chase either. You had to start with them. So, yeah, William Drew, his job security is a massive concern. Uh, Rockliffe came on as the sub waiting in the wings. You'd think Rockliffe's going to take his spot eventually. It's only going to take a few poor games from Drew, probably to get dropped, but Rosie to come back into that side. So I wouldn't be chasing him. Razi of Fantasia sort of knew that he was going to do that versus North. We did, didn't we? And 82, you almost think if that's, that might be one of his upper scores for the season, what he kicked four snags or
00:39:46
Speaker
Yeah, that's it. So I think sort of his ceiling will be 100, his floor will be 30 to 40 and we don't know when that's going to come and that's the reason you can't chase him. Yeah. And with all these like just owners be happy with the score and hold them until the break evens gone. We're not saying jump off these guys. We're just saying don't chase them if you don't have them. Just to be aware of that. Well done if you started with them. That's it. Starting options are totally different. You've done well to start with them for sure.
00:40:09
Speaker
Zebel took kick-ins, played very solid in this game. I don't like talking about Zebel. I'm not his biggest fan, but there was no Luke McDonald in this game. Do you still think though he's had a couple of good games? Is he in the frame? Is he in the frame for being a top six forward, even though he's playing in defense?
00:40:28
Speaker
Definitely. Jack Zebel won hats as a top six forward a few years ago during the middle of the season when you sort of averaged like 105 for a six week stretch. I reckon that was when he played midfield. He's almost done something somewhat of a player in each position, but not much of a player in everyone as well. Yeah. He's a bit of a sort of Jack of all trades, master of none of Jack Zebel, believe it or not.
00:40:52
Speaker
I don't mind it, but he's really priced quite awkwardly. I think he's sort of $6.50. I just don't like the fact that if Luke McDonald played in this game, I might be all about it. That's the thing. It is. It's three to four weeks, I reckon. Gee, might be juicy then. Maybe. He's an awkward price. He is an awkward price. There's better value out there, but one to watch, especially well done in draft leagues if you've got him. JWS Saints.
00:41:13
Speaker
Saints won that one and the big one out of this one, Maddie Flynn, just 99 on field, the dual ruck. If you started with a dual ruck or just went a Maddie Flynn and a wits, for instance, that was the winner for this week. But this game, wet, gross game, just sloppy all over the place. And Maddie Flynn benefited from a heap of stoppages, 99. And obviously if you started with him, you're very, very happy with that. And if you don't have him, chase that, of course.
00:41:42
Speaker
What
Injuries & Replacements
00:41:42
Speaker
do we do? I guess just move on. Happy with Matty Flynn. Yeah, I don't think much more has to be said. If you didn't start him, I'd probably find a way to get him in. Honestly, there's not much to talk about in this game. I don't reckon Taranto was a tick. Hunter as well. Paul Hunter, the other ruckman, does he survive? That's probably one that we need to talk about. And I reckon he was better than McKernan was pretty trash. So maybe does he stay in there even if one of the two come back in? I think he gets another week.
00:42:09
Speaker
Yeah, he wasn't great, but I don't think they'll just throw him to the wolves like that. And I mean, it was versus Matthew Flynn, but it was a wet game. They throw into the wolves this week against her maxi. Well, they're going to need him, aren't they? So I don't know. I think he plays how long he plays after that. I'm not sure.
00:42:26
Speaker
This is just my advice, if Meek gets named, which that's obviously risky considering he had a 20 odd point game against Max Gorn, it's against Max Gorn, it's a tough matchup. My thing that I'll be doing if Hunter plays and Meek plays, Meek on field, Hunter bench, and just hope that the Flynn vs Meek comes off just as well as the Flynn vs Hunter did last week, because I don't want any piece of anyone coming up against Gorn.
00:42:52
Speaker
West Coast Suns to finish the round review. Matty Rowell, the knee injury, brutal for all coaches, owned by a heap of players, brutal for Matt Rowell too. Yeah, just brutal for football others, isn't it? Such a good player. We thought it was the shoulder to start with and then the knee, it's a real shame, all the best to Matty Rowell of course, but what do you do with him, Louis? There's a couple of options obviously, but what are you leaning towards? Are you going the big dog in the middle?
00:43:21
Speaker
You're sort of downgrading and working around that. Where are you going? I'm probably going down to Stevenson, I think, with Rao. So he's priced enough where you can go sideways to one of these guys that we've already spoken about, Rao. Sorry, Heinz Stevenson, Shull, all these guys have already spoken about in the pod. Go down to them. Otherwise, if you've got a bit of cash, it's easy to go up to. You know, I don't think it's the biggest problem.
00:43:46
Speaker
The thing is, 50% of the competition owned him. So, it's not like you've had your knees sort of come out under you. You're right. Yeah. You're not alone. You are not alone. That's it. So, back yourself in, pick one of these guys. Might not be the right guy, but everyone's in the same boat.
00:44:02
Speaker
Now, $408,000 after his amazing performance on the weekend, the moustachioed man, the man that we both started with, Oleg Markov, 5% owned. It hasn't risen too much by looks. Lots of people needing to do those fix up trades, but he toned up in this one. Is he a guy that you could chase with his 16 break even?
00:44:23
Speaker
Oh look, he's someone I'd look at strongly. My concern would be that he took 14 marks. That's not going to happen every week. That game was just a market game, 34 degrees. I think it was in Perth. Optus is massive, 34 degrees, so they didn't want to run. I'd take it as an anomaly. He's probably last on the list for chasing for me out of those three that was spoken about.
00:44:43
Speaker
The way you can tell this was the way this game was, Bose had, him and Hern at either end, the amount of kicks they had, just mark kick, mark kick as the full back kind of quarterback out there. And Bose went at 100% efficiency. That shows you the type of kicks though they were. It was all just around those 50 arcs, just getting those nice plus sixes. It was a beautiful game in that sense.
00:45:10
Speaker
Markov will be a popular pick. I just think that he's one of those picks that if you didn't start him, you just, you miss the boat. I might be wrong, but I think that he's a tricky guy to chase. He's, I was looking at him late in the game as you do for your players watching him late in the game. He didn't get any of the garbage garbage time numbers that he could have. And it was probably cause the sons were trying to get back in the game and they were trying to sort of go long down the line. He was really coming in close for those plus sixes. I loved his, uh,
00:45:39
Speaker
Observable thirst though, Louis. Yeah, well, I didn't watch this game either, so it was a good sign that you saw his observable thirst. Oh yeah, that was certainly observable thirst. Probably didn't raise his arms around and yell as much as I would have liked. He sort of just got in the right spots, but yeah, very good signs. Bose and Hearn though, are you buying, I mean, Hearn, I couldn't do it just the age, the regression that we've seen. I don't think I could do it, but Bose, he's been on the up. Could you trust that sort of a player?
00:46:08
Speaker
Nah, I don't think you can, Doss. It's just, you could make a better case for Shannon Hearn. The only problem is Shannon Hearn, his age, you couldn't pick him either. It was a plus six first in this one. The guy that I was looking at closely though, was Jack Lakosius and he did ton up.
00:46:25
Speaker
I'd just be wary chasing any scores from this game. I mean, the good thing about it for non-owners was that Gaff stunk it up in a game that you would have thought he would have had an absolute monster game. Gaff, this is his sort of game. It was very bizarre to say it. I think the commentary team was saying he might've had some attention from Took Miller as well, sort of just going with him around. So he only scored a 70. I would've expected a 120 in this sort of game from Gaff. Saved his score late too. It was almost
00:46:52
Speaker
like they weren't going to him. So, I don't know. Is it coaching? It was very, very strange. It was very un-GAF like. It was. Jared Witz though scored pretty well for people. And is here, Ruck, that we can sort of consider now looking to upgrade to just keep an eye on him and see if he can keep performing?
00:47:11
Speaker
Yeah, I think you could. I think if you were keen on him before the fantasy season started, then it's more of a reason to jump on him if you've got that luxury. Otherwise, somebody that I'd be pretty happy with owning already.
Listener Questions & Engagement
00:47:23
Speaker
He's a good pick. Alrighty, Louie, we're going to get to some cool. Alrighty, Louie, and we've got the Twitter page up and running as well. You can now follow us at
00:47:31
Speaker
Pod Pod AFL on Twitter. I think Hef might set us up with a Facebook or Instagram, just search point of difference AFL fantasy. And remember, after this episode as well, we'll have our own podcast feed. We will no longer be on the keeper league pod feed. So make sure you subscribe or follow the point of difference AFL fantasy podcast on your favorite podcast app. We're also going to, we want to take your feedback in. So let us know how we are going and what you want and what you don't want as well on at Pod Pod AFL.
00:48:00
Speaker
the questions for this week though, Louie. This one from Sub Dub. Scholl, Caldwell, or Stevenson as the best replacement for Rau. So, we've talked about each of those players. Which one do you like the best? Probably go Stevenson, Scholl, Caldwell. Alright. Just based on prices too. Yeah, I'm probably with you. Although, I do like my Scholl. I might even go Scholl over Stevenson even as much as that's a hot take. Sam Brown says, Markov, baby, give me your take.
00:48:30
Speaker
Oh, I mean, he played the role that we thought he would, which was half back flank. He was brought over to Gold Coast for a reason, did what we wanted to see from him. But I was saying it's hard to pay up 408 now because I don't know what you're going to get next week. I think it was just a good starting pick. But if you've already got those other three guys, he's a great option.
00:48:48
Speaker
Yeah, honestly, if I've got the coin and if I don't have either of these options, I think a shoal for me just checks more boxes if I can get a little bit more money. Someone like that, I'd just be more comfortable with because of the nature of that game being such a plus six heavy game.
00:49:05
Speaker
I don't know if he can do that every week. We'll see. But he's had an awesome game, Markov. Matt Mottram, common questions, but can you address what to do with our R1? Gorn, best danger replacements, and guys that are a must get this week, for example, Markov, Stevenson, et cetera. Who do we need to pounce on? Thanks. So a few questions in there.
00:49:30
Speaker
What do we do with our R1 and Gorn first? We've talked about that. OK, so Gorn's obviously his R1. Yeah, I think just what we said earlier on in the podcast, I'd back it. Stick with your primos. Yeah, especially one more week. We might be having this conversation next week, I think.
00:49:46
Speaker
I reckon we will. Best danger replacements. Who did you end up settling on out of? I think Dusty's a good like for like, unless you can go up to sort of a big dog midfielder like your McCray or your Zerrets or like I said, even a Josh Kelly, if you're keen on him. And then if you go on the other way and downgrading with probably, Louis said, Stevenson's probably the one he's going to go for. You're pretty confident you've seen enough from him.
00:50:08
Speaker
And then who are the must-have this week if there was one if you had sort of that luxury if you didn't have to deal with anyone he says for example the mark of the Stevenson is Stevenson the guy for you that you're saying is on the top of your radar or is it someone like a hind or is it maybe a Jack O McRae who I think yours sort of become on your radar and you just want to find the money to get to him.
00:50:31
Speaker
Oh look, Dos, it's a hard question to answer. I'm not sure there's a must-have. There's no must-haves at this point in the season. We've had a one-game sample. No, it's a really difficult question. A lot of these guys have put their hands up as being one. You picked the right one, well done, but it's just hard to put your finger on it right now.
00:50:48
Speaker
Agreed. This one from Intel Sonic Matt. Are we better off chasing mid prices we missed or to bring in a primo and a mid price if we have cash to do so. So two of Stevenson, Hines, Scholl and Cash for next week or one plus Dunkley or Williams or other suggestions or he says even a rookie that we missed. So a fair bit to that as well there, Louie.
00:51:11
Speaker
Yeah, look, it's another tough one. It depends how you want to go with your structure. So obviously with that premium, you're probably banking the fact that he's a keeper with those other two mid prices. They might only be a stepping stone. So look, maybe just assess how much or how many players in your team are keepers. If it's kind of on the lighter end, then yeah, probably go that keeper.
00:51:34
Speaker
I've just said just, it's so dependent on structure and you've got to make sure you've got to be so 100% sure that they're a keeper as well. Because if not, it's value chasing here because some of those guys in the value section might end up being keepers as well. And what I will say is it's very, very hard to get a mid price and right. It's very easy to get a premium, right? Correct. So you reckon, yeah, it sounds like you're probably more leaning towards really just getting it like for like replacement and that's what I would do. Yeah. All right.
00:52:04
Speaker
Kobe asks, bring in a rookie he missed, e.g. James Rowe, or fix up the likes of de Goey or Paddy Dow. None of that Paddy Dow slander, Louis. No, not Power Power Paddy Dow. We didn't even mention him, actually. No, we haven't mentioned him. 64 in 69% time on ground. I just want to, on the record, I think Paddy Dow played very well.
00:52:25
Speaker
I would be concerned with the David Teague factor at this stage with the low time on ground and the fact Zach Williams is coming into the team. And Jack Martin too now. So yeah, I'd watch the role. I think it's probably someone, coaches are going to be downgrading soon.
00:52:42
Speaker
I guess that also depends on what you're saying. You're saying bring in a rookie you missed for a row, but who would that be for as well? So I guess is that rookie for rookie? I think he's probably talking as well. So would you prefer fixing up a rookie, say changing like, let's say a tanner broom to a row, or would you prefer to fix up the degoi or the paddy dowels? Just to make that a little bit broader question.
00:53:03
Speaker
No, so I'd be fixing up the rookies. You've only got one round of data. Jordan to go, he had the role that we thought he would. Yeah, we didn't mention him. I think if he kicked two of those three goals, he would have gone 85. We'd be okay with him. Yeah. This question comes from Jacob Markov versus Scholl and Caldwell versus Stevenson. So a few mirroring questions. Yeah. Scholl and, Scholl and Stevenson. All right, Darren, bring in Caldwell Hindor Stevenson for danger.
00:53:31
Speaker
Stacey. DC Caterpillars. Who was your biggest miss to start the season? Mine were Mills, Stevenson and Rowe. That's an interesting question, Lou. Who was your biggest miss? Probably my R2. I was never going to field make. That was my biggest hindsight call because it was locked the whole pre-season.
00:53:51
Speaker
Look, not really one. I don't want to be that guy that's like, seems perfect, but there's a lot of guys that went well that I thought, okay, well, you know, that reassures me that I was probably right on those guys, but I haven't really had too many let downs in my team either. So I think hind and McRae for me.
00:54:09
Speaker
McRae is probably one you can make a really really good case for because I just couldn't fit him in my team though so I restructured and could not fit him in my team. I gotta say though my I didn't mention this actually earlier in the show so it was Saturday night I was about to start watching the Hawthorn Essendon game.
00:54:29
Speaker
And we'd seen contested guys struggle up to that point a lot of the contested bulls had struggled and I did the old jumped on the app right before the SN Hawthorne game. Oh no. And traded out Maddy Rao for Dyson Hepple.
00:54:45
Speaker
How good was that move? No wonder you've gotten 1958 for the week, mate. Yeah, it's the luck of the game. That's just part of that. But I did like the uncontested sort of nature. I saw the game. I was like, well, this looks like a nice game. I'm going to risk it for the biscuit. It paid off, unfortunately, for Maddie Rowell, though. Freo Girl asked, is Hickey an option? Tom Hickey. He had a monster score for Sydney on the weekend.
00:55:11
Speaker
Who's he an option for? So, are you upgrading? Are you downgrading? I don't really like either. I don't know. It's Tom Hickey. I can't approve Tom Hickey in classic. No, I won't tick that off, but by all means. Hej, Chris, say, ask, hej 59, sorry, Chris, Stevenson, call well-hined, Stevenson. Stop asking me this question, Doss. Will Davis. What do you do with Hill? Brad Hill, I'm guessing probably from
00:55:37
Speaker
So he's heard his knee, has he? Was that what it was? Yeah, I think he was fine. He came back on and he ran out the game, probably just scored pretty garbage. I'd hold. That was not his game. St Kilda and GWS game. If you've started with him, I actually would back him in for one more week. That game was not a game that Brad Hill would have done well in. And I think he salvaged a pretty gross score, but a score
00:56:00
Speaker
he'll be fine in future weeks, especially if it's dry. That was a gross wet game, not Brad Hill territories. Yeah, definitely. But if you weren't keen, I think Jaden Stevenson, Nick Hind, as well as Jack Holdwell could be an option for you, believe it or not, Dossie.
00:56:15
Speaker
Yeah, you might want to jump on that one. Matt asks, he's going, well, he's stating, I'm going danger and to go to Shole and one of the following with your help lads, Zach Williams, Hunter Clark, or Bailey Smith. I like a bit of a different question here.
00:56:31
Speaker
Yeah, I like that one. So Zach Williams, Hunter Clark or Bailey Smith. Do we get a look at Zach Williams before we jump on board? I think with the lack of tackle numbers around one, small sample size, we've talked about how Zach Williams, the reason he's a gun mid when he plays there is because he tackles. If we're not going to get as many, is that something of concern or is that just... So it's Bailey Smith, Zach Williams and Hunter Clark.
00:56:56
Speaker
OK, so I would decide that by I think at the end of the year, Zach Williams is the closest player to being a top six defender, top eight midfielder, top six forward, whatever you want to call it. Out of those players, I think Zach Williams is most likely to be a keeper. So without even having a look at him, he's probably the one I'd be inclined to take the pun on. It'll be a massive point of difference as well.
00:57:19
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind it. The other thing is, I mean, out of those three, Louis, he's talking about trading to go, would you just hold out of those and fix something else up? I'd hold, but I can see why coaches would want to jump off being the type of player that he is. I just like to hold my players. Maybe I'm a little bit stubborn.
00:57:37
Speaker
Rowan the boat asks us this isn't the same question. Don't worry, Louie Do you jump off do you jump to a primo like teach now or? Try and save cash by hitting on a player on the rise such as your shoals your cold wells your Stevenson's who we've talked out Lots of times always a first-time listener and first-time caller from row on the boat. Thanks very much. Great. Thanks for thanks for listening in Look, you could I don't want to sit on the fence but you really can play either way one options gonna make you weigh more cash and
00:58:06
Speaker
The other, and you're going to use a trade to get up to a premium eventually, unless you nail it. The other, you've got the keeper from the start. How's your structure looking? How's your cash looking? Personally, if, if you're, if you've got a shaky structure, maybe you've got two rookie rocks like yourself. I might be more inclined to chase. Spread the load. Yeah. Spread the load and chase that extra change to use the following week. But I do like the idea of just picking that keeper and backing him in. Tom Mitchell was perfect for that.
00:58:35
Speaker
Yeah, I like that, especially like you're saying, it's all about your structure. If you've got the structure bang on, go what Louis is saying, get your titual, he's going to be a top, well, he's looking like a top eight mid at least. And it's going to be dictated with rookies, Doss. So you don't want Alexander Scott on ground in your forward line, but you may be able to flick somebody into your forward line and have, you know, Errol Gordon instead. I mean, those are just some examples, but you really want to be watching what rookies are scoring well. Like a James Jordan was on the bench for a lot of players.
00:59:04
Speaker
You want him on field now. Alrighty, this one comes from Tal Hazami. Do we hold Patty Dow? He wants to know. I'll give it from an unbiased perspective. Louie, he scored the 64 odd in 69%. Price of 40 though, he made your coin. You say you are concerned from Zach Williams coming back from suspension and looking like Jack Martin coming in as well.
00:59:26
Speaker
Yes, I wouldn't be jumping off yet. He had the role that you wanted, probably didn't score as well. Yes, these guys are coming back. Sometimes players coming back into the side actually makes another player better, so you've got to consider that. I think you wait a week or two, 340K or whatever it is, 330K, you can easily just go down to another rookie. So there might be one that pops. You might have the next Jimmy Rowe, 84 minus nine break even, go straight down to him instead.
00:59:54
Speaker
Alright, and Militime wants to know who made my team for me, seeing as I comfortably sit at about 2,000 rank, I think it might be my best ranking and quite my best starting team. I'm always a solid trader, Louis. I usually rise up the ranks after round one. I'm sitting around that 2,000 rank. I think Militime's running. Who the hell helped me with my team?
01:00:13
Speaker
Well, if you throw enough shit at a wall, eventually something sticks. It happened to succeed in one round, I might add, in probably one of the weirdest rounds we've seen in quite some time. So probably no surprises there.
01:00:28
Speaker
Hey everyone, thanks for listening to the Point of Difference podcast. Follow us at Pod Pod AFL now on Twitter. We will have our own stream, probably for the, our own feed, our own podcast feed, probably for this episode, if not next one. So make sure you find us on Spotify, on Apple Pods, Google Pods.
01:00:47
Speaker
wherever you're listening and Louie will take everyone's feedback and come back with an improved show. We'll just improve week to week. That's it to say it takes a hundred podcasts to get it right, Dossie. So we're what three or four in 96 to go. So we'll get that jump on board guys. Listen to us. Follow us on Twitter. I'm at Louie AF. I'm at HK Doss. We'll see you next week. Officially Louie on the pod pod. See you guys.