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AFL Fantasy DEFENDERS | #PODPOD
89 Plays3 years ago
Dos, Statesman and the returning Lewy(!) chat about 12 players that are on their radar for good or bad reasons this AFL Fantasy pre-season.
Some big names include Aaron Hall, Jake Lloyd, James Sicily, Jordan Dawson, Wayne Milera and more!
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Transcript
Introduction to the Podcast
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of difference AFL fantasy podcast. A different look at AFL fantasy classic brought to you by the keeper league
Louie's Return and Season Preparations
00:00:09
Speaker
pod. In this show, we're talking all things defenders. Also some great news listeners. Louie is officially back on deck for 2022. We'll discuss in a moment, but you know what that means. It's time for the.
00:00:42
Speaker
All right, we are back for another week of the Pod Pod. And first of all, let's just clear the air. Dossie's miscommunication in the off-season. We all thought Louis was gone. He's back for the second episode and he's back for good. Louis, welcome back, mate. And apologies. Thanks, mate. Good to be back. Good to be earning a little bit more too. It's nice that you sugar-coated it that way, Dossie, but I think everything's sorted now.
00:01:08
Speaker
Perfect, mate. Well, we're glad to have you back on board. And it's going to be the combination of Stado Senior and Stado Junior. But the senior man's here as well. No firearm this week there, Sado.
00:01:19
Speaker
Now, after expending about half of my fortune, we've got that removed, thankfully. I did go for five days. Two different electricians are just ridiculous. But anyway, it's sorted. It's sorted. Beautiful. That's great news. Great news for all our years as we listen back to that one. Now, Louis, we didn't get a chance to chat last week, but how's your fantasy prep going? You are deep in the weeds yet?
00:01:48
Speaker
Yeah, pretty deep, mate. To be honest, today was probably the first time I've touched it in a couple of weeks. I just thought I'd make a couple of little adjustments from just little bits and pieces that I've read. But as you know, I'm always pretty on top of it. But trying to not be making too many changes this early, but certainly trying to form my best 22.
00:02:13
Speaker
Love it mate, you're always on top of things for the pod pod listeners, that's why you're the fan favourite, that's why you're absolutely back this year.
Roundtable: Analyzing AFL Defenders
00:02:20
Speaker
So alright, this is the structure we're going for, we're going to be just talking defenders and we're basically going to be picking four players that we want to talk about each. Now I've let you guys know it can be players we like or maybe don't want to be picking in our team but we're just going to go round table style, so it's not your top kind of six guys that
00:02:38
Speaker
although it can be, but it's just anyone that we want to talk about and we want to maybe just discuss with our co-hosts here and figure out if we do really like them or not. But I want to start off, we'll go with Statesman, Louis and then myself and we'll keep going around. But Stado, who's your first player you want to talk about in Defenders?
00:02:54
Speaker
Well, my eyes, if you listen to last week, is always looking at that top six to 10 players anyway. So that's where I'm going to start. And I'm going for Aaron Hall, 31 years old. I just turned that in November. He's priced at 109. But just a bit of history with Aaron. He had seven years at the Gold Coast for 103 games and three years so far at North Melbourne. So this would be his fourth season.
00:03:21
Speaker
for 41 games. No doubt a banner year in 2021. And let's put that time down to right time and right place. And to be fair, he wasn't even selected in round one. And round two, he was actually sitting on the pine as the sub and actually come on late in the game to give us 11 points.
00:03:45
Speaker
From round seven, he only dropped below 103 times. So three times for the year, he only dropped, sorry, from round seven, he only dropped under a ton. That's massive. But there's a butt. There's a big butt here. So setting up your classic team, you always want to find the value. And firstly, his body is a risk.
00:04:14
Speaker
is not going to be in the next Premiership team. So you've got to find out whether, is there time that they're going to start developing young players into that type of role? Is that the type of role they actually want a player to play? So when they actually going for Premiership, is that the type of player they want?
00:04:36
Speaker
answer is probably no and you're going to pay top dollar for him. So the overall value of the game always remains the same. So if rookie's prices are going up and someone's price is coming down.
00:04:51
Speaker
So that's how the game works. So unless he averages over 118 from the start, he'll be dropping down in value. So if he does keep the role, if he does have a good body for the whole season, which I don't think he's ever played a full season yet in his 10 years of playing AFL footy,
00:05:16
Speaker
But if that does happen, you'll be able to pick him up at round six and much cheaper than what he is now. That's the reason I won't be selecting Aaron Hall. I think from what I understand, Louis might be on the same page, but I just want to put in my two cents worth because I
00:05:36
Speaker
a person that did not own Aaron Hall last year. And I don't know how you, when you guys jumped on, but I, I barely scraped it together. I think I might've eventually got him at the end or maybe never, but I just come into this season and it's something that I actually
00:05:51
Speaker
I don't know if I've shared with you guys that I really want to live by as well. I just don't want to not pick guys that I think can absolutely kill me. And it's something that stopped me from picking a Josh Dunkley last year. I was like, this guy could absolutely kill me either way. I think Aaron Hall is one of those guys. He can kill you if he doesn't perform. But if he goes 130 for the first five weeks, he's got Hawthorne around one, he has every chance he goes 140. He could also murder you the other way.
00:06:18
Speaker
Tossie boy, don't let FOMO run your fantasy team. Let your fantasy brain. So the business of fantasy, what is it? It's making coins so you can get the best team on the park. So if you spend big on someone that's going to drop value, then you're not using your business brain. Don't buy Bitcoin at its top price.
00:06:43
Speaker
Statesman though, if we're talking top dollar 109 average for the season, I know there's a lot of changes happening at North, but there's not a stack happening in the back line. 121 in his last five, that's, you know, that's under price. That's 12 points under price data. So we're still getting someone that is actually undervalued. What game style do they play, Dossie?
00:07:04
Speaker
very possession heavy because they were not performing too well. I don't, I don't see them making that huge jump this year though. Do you guys see them improving that much that they're still not going to have to hold possession in the back half? Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think so. What we saw in 2021 was that they played a bit of a keepings off style and you can't blame them. Otherwise they would have gone out there every single week and gotten smashed because there's not a lot in between. They were rolling out corpses and they were bringing in new kids at the same time. So I think
00:07:33
Speaker
As we go into 2022, there's a lot of fresh faces that brought in a couple of new recruits as well. I can just see North wanting to instill a bit of hope in their fans and playing a bit more of an attacking brand. While Hall does provide that, I mean some of his kicks.
00:07:50
Speaker
in 2021 going down through the guts were incredible. I also think that they're going to have to start looking towards the future pretty quickly. I mean, this is a guy I think Stado said is 31 at this point. So soon they're going to have to pass the torch on and they're going to have to find somebody that can also play that role and actually really
00:08:09
Speaker
propel them into being a premiership contender a couple of years down the track. So that's why I'm a little bit hesitant on the role. I've also spoken before where other blokes have had this role as well. I mean, we saw Jack Sebel in the same season played something similar, but we go a year before that and we saw Luke McDonald was putting up consistent 100s playing that
00:08:30
Speaker
pretty much exact same role as well. So I do have to worry about that a little bit, especially when he comes in at such an exorbitant price. I mean, you did nail it in that if he comes in going 130 over the first six weeks, yes, that might hurt a little bit. But at the same time, if he comes in and goes 115, he's still not going to go up a whole heap and you'll be able to catch him on the way down, too. So I'm not as worried about him really, really hurting us early.
00:08:59
Speaker
I'm still, I'm still, I just don't see that player that I understand what you're saying and that they need to find that player. I just don't see that player that's on their list yet that can do what Hall's providing for them. So anyway, we'll move on from Aaron Hall. We'll agree to disagree on that one. Dossi's stubborn brain is probably still going to be picking the massively priced Hall in round one. All right, Louis, do you want to take us through your first player that you want to talk about here?
Player Performance and Potential Analysis
00:09:24
Speaker
Yeah so mine's actually Jayden Short. He's maybe perhaps a little bit of an obvious one. He was on the radars of a lot of coaches last year just based on that JLT game that I think everybody knows about where he pretty much put up a 170 and looked phenomenal. I think that was without
00:09:41
Speaker
Basha Hooley as well, who of course isn't going to be playing this year, retired. So that's why I think there might be a little bit of scope for improvement on Jaden Short in 2022. He comes in priced at 93. He's only 25 years of age. And when you start looking beyond the big three in defence, which is obviously your Aaron Hall, your Lockie Whitfield and your Jake Lloyd,
00:10:04
Speaker
And you can throw a little bit of a blanket over the guys below that. So I'm talking a Daniel Rich or a Tom Stewart. They're all consistent 90 plus guys. But at this point, I'm pretty confident in saying so is Jaden Short. So when I look at his age and when I look at the positives going his way in that Basha Hooley's departed, the Tigers might be
00:10:26
Speaker
adjusting their game style a little bit. But look, just predominantly based on age, I think there's enough upside there from a fantasy perspective that he might be the one to take that next jump above 90, perhaps above 95 and pushing 100. I mean, he's a high kick to
00:10:44
Speaker
high kick to handball ratio player. His marks aren't up as high as what I'd like, but I think they play their game style through him to some respect, so he's someone I think naturally can take that jump. And do we think Richmond as well are going to be a team that's kind of coming back the other way and maybe even having that sort of needing to play it a bit more in the defensive half this year as well? I mean, time's going to tell, but Stado, what do you think on the Jaden Shore pick here?
00:11:11
Speaker
Yeah, all the information is right. And the expectation should be takes another step forward and should be in the top six. I just have a problem with having a Richmond premium squad. It just doesn't quite feel right.
00:11:29
Speaker
No, you're right. Richmond, besides Basha Hooley, who I just spoke about, they haven't really lended themselves to that fantasy premium player. I mean, before Basha, you've got to go back to Dusty. And what was that good season, 2017 or 2018, where he went at 110 and he was pretty much the main guy in there. So look, that's just somebody that I think is going to be pretty solid in defense, albeit there's a massive lack of depth in defense. It drops off quite quickly.
00:11:59
Speaker
Ultimately, what I also like with short is that he's the main kick in holder too. So yeah, hopefully in 2022, we see that coming to fruition. I don't know if there's a big upside, but I certainly know he's going to be around that top six mark.
00:12:16
Speaker
Perfect. My first player, pretty much no surprise here, but I'm going with Jordan Dawson as my first pick. And he was one player that I was incredibly excited over the trade period that managed to find his way to Adelaide, who I just think he's going to take his game to a whole other level. So whenever he's played basically on the wing in Sydney over the last couple of seasons, he's edged towards that 100 mark. And I really think he'll have that sort of a role at Adelaide.
00:12:43
Speaker
Unfortunately, some of the news that actually came out today was that Paul Seidman's still struggling with some concussion at the moment. So he's, I don't think even training at the moment. So, I mean, that's probably, while it's terrible news for Seidman, even more positive signs for Dawson in getting that roll on the wing. I just think priced at 86 that he's priced at, 88, sorry, edging 89.
00:13:05
Speaker
He's still got at least 10 points upside there. It's 110. May as well round it up to 90. We've seen how Adelaide have really wanted to use and keep giving the ball to guys like your Brody Smiths over the years and the Seidmans who can really have that penetrating kick. There's no one better at it in the comp than Jordan Dawson, you could argue, as penetrating kicks. I think they're just going to be using him all day long.
00:13:30
Speaker
And we've seen those two guys average near the 100, not Brodie Smith last year, but he was the year before. And I just think he's got a scope for amazing upside. And I can see him really going towards that 100 mark. And I don't think anything you guys say right now will convince me otherwise.
00:13:47
Speaker
I just I can't wait to the the group messages talking about how nixie is ruining your boy and time on ground stats are shocking and why don't they give him the role he's meant to have that's what I'm expecting but look I think there's some upside to I think we all
00:14:07
Speaker
We get sucked in by his high-quality disposal, so he looks like a really good player, and we also potentially might be getting sucked into the 157 I think he had on the wing at Sydney Swans, but at the moment I'm sucked in too. You're in. I'm in at the moment.
00:14:45
Speaker
So he had six, sorry, four scores in the 60s and six scores 75 or below. That's just not high enough for me to be confident in starting him in 2022. But I think certainly depending on role, he's somebody who at the Adelaide Crows could fill one of those halfback roles or wing roles and sort of push that 90, 95 plus mark, as we saw Seedzman was able to do as well.
00:14:51
Speaker
Lord I see it.
00:15:13
Speaker
I guess one thing I will flag is that Sydney were the second most disposals per game last year, crows way down at 17th. So I mean, that's probably a concern. It obviously relies on Adelaide taking a pretty big step up and being able to hold the ball a little bit more than they did last year. Stado, do you want to take us through your second play?
00:15:31
Speaker
Yeah, Captain obvious, Jake Lloyd at 28, he's priced at 98. Prior to last season, he averaged over 103 seasons on the trope, which included a 107 and over the 110, which is the coronavirus adjusted one, I think it was 114 for that season.
00:15:52
Speaker
He reduced his kick-ins last season with Dawson taking more. Dawson's move to the wing in the second half of the season meant his kick-ins increased and therefore increased his output. The last five games he averaged just a tick under 105, so expecting the 105 to 110.
00:16:13
Speaker
10 average, so it's certainly worth the price tag of 98, top six guaranteed, very dependable player. I don't think you can say much more on Lloyd. He's one of the safer picks going around. Louis, what's your next player?
00:16:30
Speaker
My next player who is probably the opposite of one of the safer picks around is, and mostly because Stado has taken all the good players in defence is Zach Williams who comes in at 600k which is actually the lowest that he's been priced since 2015.
00:16:47
Speaker
which was of course his third AFL season. He had a bit of a development from there. He's averaged sort of mid 80s in a half back blank roll for the Giants until he moved into the midfield went up at 95. I don't have his numbers for the last half of that season but he was phenomenal and even in one of his finals there I think he posted a 116 and that's when everyone's ears sort of went up and that's when Carlton decided that we're going to recruit you and put you in the midfield but
00:17:16
Speaker
Unfortunately that didn't happen the way that we planned. He played there for the first six weeks, was a little bit underwhelming, had a bit of an injury, didn't come in fit and basically he blew up a couple of people's seasons throughout the whole season really. I think some people brought him in sort of late as well thinking that he might have that uptick which he did in bursts. He managed to turn up once just towards the end of the season but
00:17:44
Speaker
I think in 2022 it's a brand new season and it's going to have a little bit more fitness. He's going to have much more synergy in that blue side as well. He's not going to have as much of an expectation to come in and perform either. I think he's someone who priced at 71, has a little bit of natural progression. I mean, like I said, he hasn't actually gone below that average since 2015. So he's someone I'm relatively confident in that.
00:18:09
Speaker
can push that 71 average up by about 10 points, which is why I think he's a bit of a value pick in 2022. What do you think his ceiling is though? Cause as a defender, I just don't see his ceiling being potentially high enough to, as we've been talking about, be that keeper keeper player, but what's the kind of point upside that you'd be, you know, hoping for if you are going to start with him?
00:18:31
Speaker
Oh look from 71 I think at his best he could probably push maybe like a 92 so it's nothing out of this world but that being said and I said it before you can throw a blanket over some of these defenders because the depth drops off quite quickly so somebody with 20 points upside potentially is somebody that I'm always going to be quite interested in.
00:18:54
Speaker
Yeah, I think for me, I reckon his up, I think his higher end upside, that would be like the really high end upside for him, for me. I think he's more of the 80 to 85, but I'm probably wrong, Louis, you're usually much more switched on with these pre-season picks. State are you on board the Z-wheel train?
00:19:13
Speaker
Well, I recruited him in the Dynasty League last year because everyone else was down on him and I think he's still got quite a few good years ahead of him. I wouldn't go at him at Classic only because you're going to have to trade him out again. So I'd rather be trading out the ones that are going to make me a lot more money.
00:19:34
Speaker
Yeah, that's fair enough. I just, the upside for me was when he was going to play midfield and like, you know, had pretty big numbers in the past. And I just don't see that happening again. I think he can have three or four at most stepping stones in your squad. And I just don't think he's priced a little bit too much to be looking at a serious stepping stone. If, if I actually thought he could knock the door on the top six, then I'll be a lot more interested.
00:20:04
Speaker
My next player that I'm going to talk about is just someone who I need to I need you guys opinion on this because I'm just so up in the air and I think I've
00:20:13
Speaker
Started with him in my team straight away the first one of the first people I picked then I've done a complete backflip and now I'm just so uncertain and I'm talking about James Sicily He was one of the bigger names in the early days I assume he's still one of the highest picked players because we haven't seen him in quite some time the ACL injury $510,000 so pretty cheap on that scale nearly half the price of Aaron Hall 48% owned
00:20:40
Speaker
I initially was going to start him and sounds like he's definitely, you know, he's doing a full pre-season. He's going to be straight back into the defensive line, which is probably one of the questions I had in the sense that if he's playing forward, I don't want to piece him at all. Looks like he's going to be playing defense. Just a lot of questions though, still.
00:21:00
Speaker
For me there's much more stacked backline since the last time he was there you know now they've got Scrimshaw, Day, Hardwick, Bramble, Chankuth, Jath kind of coming out there and quality ball users that they probably didn't have when he was last there and really struggling. The other thing that's really kind of a
00:21:17
Speaker
harsh for me but just the comments surrounding kick ins that he made during the season last year that he didn't think they should be counted as kicks that just demonstrates a lack of thirst to me guys that's really just thrown me against him in that sense but it's just that temptation that he could also get thrown forward as well by the new coach but am I ever thinking this? I want your opinion on this. Louis looks like you're ready to spit some fire.
00:21:45
Speaker
Oh you've caught me off guard to be honest Dossie but what I will say is that he's coming in priced at 60 which is pretty much something he hasn't done since his debut year so it's undeniable that there is upside there and that's including I think his first couple of years were spent forward. I didn't know that his role has been confirmed in defence Dossie that's true is it?
00:22:06
Speaker
Well, I saw, um, it was just an article that was put out by the Hawthorn team and it was like, Oh, this defensive coach will be working with the defenders such as, and then they named, and it was basically like Cicely was in not mentioning the forward section mentioned completely in the defensive. That's all I'm going off, but I'm just assuming it's happening.
00:22:26
Speaker
Look, compared to my previous guy, he's probably someone I'd feel a whole lot safer. I think you pay about 90K less as well, which is equivalent to about 11 points. He's someone that, yeah, I would be keen to start in 2022 based on his upside. But as you said, the role is a little bit of a question mark. He can be thrown pretty much anywhere. He's a bit of your classic day utility, I think. And you always got to worry about players coming back from long term injuries as well. So
00:22:56
Speaker
I'd be really keen to hear what status got to say, but in terms of James Sicily, I think he's a pretty good option. He's just climbing in that ownership as well. I'm a no. Okay, let's hear it. I'm a no. Simple as that. I just don't pick people that are coming back after a knee injury. I think I've been burnt once, so I just put red line, you're coming back. Look, if it was $190,000, then certainly I would consider it.
00:23:27
Speaker
I'm not paying that type of money for someone coming back from a knee that we're unsure on his role in a team that's at the bottom of the ladder. And that's why at his ownership you might choose to take him on. I think he's upwards of 40% now. So all of a sudden you can take on almost half the competition on a guy who does have a lot of question marks. So I agree with Stata as well. I'm sitting on the fence here, but it could either go one of two ways.
00:23:54
Speaker
Yeah, and being down the bottom of the ladder might bring out the fury in him as well. He's got a bit of a temper, old Sicily might have to spend a couple of weeks on the sidelines as well with a suspension. All right, Stado, take us through your third player. We've each got a couple more to get through here, so let's move on.
00:24:11
Speaker
Yeah, Lucky Whitfield, 27 years of age, priced at 94. I will admit that his body has been a risk, but I also will say it's not the usual type of injury. So I'm still thinking it's a bit more of bad luck than weakness to any part of his body. So a lot of collision injuries and
00:24:30
Speaker
and weird things. It's weird, a man that doesn't go to a lot of contests seems to get a lot of injury from contests, has the potential to be 110 plus and they do love the ball in his hand and he has a tank to die for. Secure top six candidate for me, looking at about the 105 average, so price at 94, book him in.
00:24:53
Speaker
I love Whitfield. I just love watching him play and yeah, I won't be taking him out of my team anytime soon. No arguments there, Lou Dog? No, he's one of the best fantasy players there is when he comes in priced at 94. He's, you know, upwards of 10 points under priced after, you know, his 2021 season was interrupted, came in with a bit of a, was it rib injury or something in turn? Like a liver, I think, yeah.
00:25:18
Speaker
Yeah, so he never got a chance to get up to full fitness. I'm fully expecting him to bounce back. Who have you got for us next then, Louis?
00:25:27
Speaker
Well hopefully someone that we can see bounce back which is Wayne Malera. He comes in price seriously cheap 378k which is equivalent to 45 points. It's been two years since we've seen Wayne Malera play. He briefly came in for two games before getting injured but prior to that averaged 75 and 76 in 2018 and 2019 in
00:25:52
Speaker
and in that period he missed just six games which is you know pretty respectable when we're talking about a bloke like Wayne Malera who's been pretty injury prone since but like I said priced at 45 he's actually
00:26:08
Speaker
under 20 points based on pretty much anything he's done and it's the cheapest price he's ever been since his first year in the competition so he's someone that all I can see is upside if he remains fit because his scoring has never actually been a problem. If we go back to 2019 which was his last quotation full season 10 out of his 17 games were above 82 so we're looking at potentially 40 points upside there.
00:26:37
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's purely health if he selected round one. He's in my team. Stado, have you got any objections? Just to watch over the pre-season, want to see his role, want to see his fit. There has been a bit of talk that they're slowly nursing him back. So I'm mindful that I actually want to see him selected first and foremost, but sort of the right price for a stepping stone.
00:27:01
Speaker
I'm going to talk about another premium here. I was going to talk about someone else, but I think I'll talk about Jack Crisp who was in my team all last season, didn't disappoint me, averaged over a ton. And for some reason I kind of just haven't really looked at him yet as a real option, but I probably should be because every year this guy just plays.
00:27:22
Speaker
every game puts up consistent scores you know he's played 22 games four out of the last five seasons the only one was the was the 2020 covity season this guy's just so consistent and the fact that they're losing some quality
00:27:37
Speaker
out of the back half as well, and potentially the midfield with Dagoi, unknowns about Dagoi, they're losing Chrissie Mayne, the GOAT down back, the amount of peel that he was getting last year.
George Hewitt's Potential at Carlton
00:27:48
Speaker
He's now one of their veteran leaders on their team. I mean, he was last year, but he's even more so now. They just need those experienced heads. Is there, I see a scenario, it doesn't matter where he plays, you know, midfield back, there's two spots that he's going to play and he's going to go a hundred plus. I just,
00:28:05
Speaker
Do you guys see much upside in him with sort of those less, you know, without the Chrissie Mains? I know you've got guys coming back though in the back line like a Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore coming back. Can you see a crisp going higher and is he worth a pick as a premium defender?
00:28:21
Speaker
No, I don't see the upside like you do, Dos. No, no, no, I'm not saying I do. I'm questioning. I'm probably think it's just one of these guys that he's going to play 22 and you're pretty much paying what you're getting. But yeah, I don't know if I see that upside as well. But go on. So he's come in at a highest average of his career of 101.
00:28:38
Speaker
So I'm not sure you can pencil him in for an easy 100 plus score every single week. And then on top of that, you throw in just some question marks about that role. And I know we used to speak last year on the Pod Pod Dossi that it doesn't really matter what role is in his very good scorer in defense and in the midfield. But when you're paying eight hundred and fifty four K for a bloke price that one hundred and one, which is his highest career average in his whole career,
00:29:06
Speaker
I start to worry a little bit. I mean, in a value based game like fantasy, starting guys like that, you really want to see that upside and have it sort of jump out at you. Whereas with crisp, it's a lot easier for me to look at the downside of that. Oh, yeah. And then throw in a new coach as well on top of that. So there's just too many question marks for me.
00:29:27
Speaker
Yeah, that's fair enough too. And I was just looking at his centre-bouncer tendencies now on Kepa League's website and 89%, 68%, 85%, 94, and this is rounds eight to 12, like he was eight to 13, he was really attending a he percent of bounces between rounds eight and 13. So if we see that role, these are his scores at that time, 126, 97, 117, 110, 113, and then just one blip at 72.
00:29:55
Speaker
like there's scope, but I think maybe that real true upside again, we always talk about it is just playing in the midfield. So we'll just have to wait and see on Crisp. If there's that midfield role, I might be tempted after just reading those numbers. Stado, who's your next player? We've got one left. Yeah, one left. Georgie Hewitt at 26, priced at 64. This one's a watch for BL to be honest.
00:30:22
Speaker
If there is the role that I expect for him to have at the Blues, then I'm in, because I think he is an outside chance for top six and a possible chance for top 10. He's a two-way running midfielder with a ceiling of 90 to 95. So we're talking the hepple, the short, the Whitfield territory last season. So that was the back end of that sort of top six crew.
00:30:52
Speaker
He needs to show he has that role, but should be the only reason they wanted him in the club. So only greater opportunities would make you leave the swans for the Blues. He's shown as a two-way running midfielder. Yes, he's played as a tagger and yes, he's played as a small shutdown defender.
00:31:16
Speaker
Carlton Football Club do not need any more defenders. They do not need his type of defence. They need support for that midfield group. And I'm thinking those top four midfielders, Crips, Walsh, Cherer and Hewitt. And I think two of them are really going to have banner years at the Blues.
00:31:40
Speaker
Just not on board Hewitt. I can't be. I'm afraid. That's fine. Yeah. You get on Sicily. I'll get on Hewitt. Yeah. I'll believe it. Oh no. I said, I said I wasn't sure on Sicily. Thank you very much. Let's do it. You are not sure. I'm not sure. Come buddy. Come. Is he, is he even better than, is he better than Matt Kennedy? Like, is he? Yes. Yes he is. Is he? Yeah. Yes he is.
00:32:09
Speaker
Is he? Oh, look, I probably got them quite similar, but what George Hewitt does have is a tackling game. He's someone who I'm not surprised to see 10 tackles on the stat sheet at the end of the game. So based on that floor, I think at his price and as a defender, he's someone who's a massive preseason watch and somebody that I'm keeping an eye on for 2022 for sure.
00:32:33
Speaker
Yeah, to be honest, to be honest though, Hewitt is the kind of player, pretty much exactly who I went against last year when you guys picked James Harms. I just don't like that defensive mid, but when they've got defensive status, I should probably just shut up and listen because he's cheap. And he's better than James Harms. Yeah, I can't disagree with that. Louis, take us through your last play here.
00:33:00
Speaker
Mine's Daniel Rich who I'm not as keen on. He comes in priced at 98 this year which is actually 10 points above what he's ever averaged in his career and this is for a bloke who's 31 turning 32 now and just going through his numbers I've spoken about this before on the coaches panel is that he only went
00:33:26
Speaker
He went under 99 13 times in 2021 and he is priced at 98. So, it does show that he has a propensity to score well when he goes above that, but it does show that you are probably paying a little bit of a premium for what he might come out and do over the first 6, 7, 8 rounds, which means that you are just going to start losing money I think.
00:33:48
Speaker
Yeah it's it's a fair call I don't think would be starting him and it's probably a similar you can't you kind of know what you get with him don't you but this has been I would get this have been his last couple of years of just been absolute career years as well so that's another reason sort of like your crisp argument you don't really want to be paying full price for a dude with without much scope for upside. Okay my final pick and the last of our twelve.
00:34:13
Speaker
I'm going to be talking about Braden Campbell. Is any red flags immediately going up from you guys, or are you taking me seriously here? Because let's look at the ball use that they've lost. I've talked about one guy that's coming to Adelaide. That's who we're looking at Braden Campbell to replace that kind of player down back for Sydney. So Dawson, while he did play wings, still played a lot of his year in defense. And he took the second most amount of kick-ins for Sydney. So he took 28%.
00:34:42
Speaker
of the team's kick-ins, which was behind only Jake Lloyd. Braden Campbell, I think, is the logical dude to be the next guy to share that load with Lloyd. And I'm just, I think, priced. He's at $400,000. Now, I don't know if you can do the math for me, Louis, with your little mathematics, but he's $414,000 starting the season, just a little bit above Wayne Millera.
00:35:09
Speaker
He's a second year player coming off a pretty, there you go, priced at 49. I just see a massive scope for upside for Braden Campbell, especially with that role. There's guys leaving that team. We've seen Hewitts leaving the team as well. I don't think they kind of contend for the same role, but Jordan Dawson, that's a big one for me. I think they're going to use Braden Campbell's ball, you see, out of the back line a lot. I toyed between him and Nick Blakey, but I definitely think that Campbell's going to be the one that's used.
00:35:36
Speaker
Second year breakout. I'm just tracking it. It's not a guy that I'm super, super keen on, especially given the lessons learned from the state over the years. 400K is very awkward. But any, any temptation there from you, Statesman? I actually just want to see him develop as a footballer. I'm not interested in him in fantasy at this stage for a keeper dynasty. I've got a bit of interest, but I want to see how it develops.
00:36:03
Speaker
Yep, there. All right, so that's all our players getting to. We'll just talk quickly about three lists from the listeners. Braden Maynard, Louis.
00:36:13
Speaker
Look, he's got the role in the midfield, which remains to be seen because Collingwood bat quite deep in that role. He's someone I will be quite keen on. I think he comes in priced about 81, which is below what his best has been as a sort of half accountable defender. So all I can say is a massive preseason watch. I know that they've been flagging him to go into the midfield since 2017.
00:36:39
Speaker
So it's been a long time. He's someone who is going he's going to be defensive midfield. I assume he will tackle. We've seen that he likes to spread for marks in defense, talented player. So look, all I can really say is watch the role in the preseason. And if it's there, there's certainly some value. I think there's at least 10 points you can squeeze out of him. Jordan Ridley, Stado.
00:37:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's an interesting one. I want to see the setup and that defense because we all took it. There's one recruit that's going to play that sort of lockdown tall defender and all of a sudden reds would be free. I do want to see it, but also I'm just sort of thinking he's outside that range. So I think he's just around that.
00:37:25
Speaker
10 to 12 mark so he's gonna let you down in Purge and he did that last year so he's probably a no for me but I'll continue to watch and another one for you statesman just because this came through on the twitter sphere and we need your opinion on this one Darcy Tucker do you honor the tuck in 2022
00:37:45
Speaker
He's a massive watch, because I can tell you, there's a lot of talk about Will Brody, but if we're honoring the tuck through a midfield role, I've got a bit of interest, because he'll be quite cheap, wouldn't he? What are we talking? I think he's at $68. I think he's priced at $68. That's my memory. So there's a bit of interest in the tuck, but I want to see the role. You take Hewitt, I'll take Tuck. I'll honor the tuck.
00:38:14
Speaker
Deal? I might take both if he's both got the right roles. Yeah, I mean, I think- He's a sneaky top six chance. Oh, the defender eligibility for a dude that could play midfield. I think this- Yeah. It's him and, it's basically him, Mundy when he's fit and Will Brody that are kind of that, they need that big body in there. So I think it's one of those three. It's not going to be all three. What actually happened to Darcy Tucker last year for him to come in priced at that price?
00:38:42
Speaker
That's a great question. Must have been injury, surely. Well, he still played 16 games, so he was there about... Roll. Yeah, don't know. Yeah. He was definitely not. He was not in that midfield friendly role. I think if we check the centre bounces, he would be not in there at all because... But we'll do a bit of research and report on it next week. Yeah. All righty. And that's my tea to hurry up. I've got a meeting to go to. All right.
00:39:13
Speaker
All right, we've had to let Stado head off. He was in a rush there, but we're going to continue and finish off this show. And as you know, now every week in this pre-season, I'm going to be listing Dossie's Pods to finish the show.
Unique AFL Fantasy Selections with Dossie's Pods
00:39:26
Speaker
And that is the point of difference, podcast's point of differences. So that's the Pod Pod Pod, Louis, as we did last year. So I've got it. I might exit stage left here too, actually, mate.
00:39:37
Speaker
Yeah, everyone's leaving for my pods. So I've got two from basically each team and I've tried to sort of get a mixture here, but I'm going, we're up to Collingwood and Carlton this week. So I've done Adelaide and Brisbane last week. This week.
00:39:53
Speaker
Carlton, I'm starting out with, and it's a man that I know the statesman would be sad that he's leaving because he loves this guy this season, and it's pretty much him that's convinced me on him. Adam Cherr, priced at 87, and that includes an injury-affected 17 from 10% time on ground. Only averaged the 46% center bounce attendances in 2021, and that's going to jump up at Carlton for sure. I think statesman's correct in that he's going to be in their first choice midfield.
00:40:20
Speaker
finished the season with a 104.5 game average and that was with 80 cent amounts of tendencies over the final three as well for a 106 average. I really love them as a pod. He's actually in my team at the moment. Do you have any thoughts on Chara, are you on board or is that a pod you're avoiding?
00:40:38
Speaker
No, I'm a big fan for anybody who wants to touch it. What does he come in price at? $730K. So he's in that interesting price range where there's a couple of different guys who admittedly aren't as unique that can do something capable in terms of their scoring output. But as a pod-dos, I'm on board. I quite like it.
00:41:01
Speaker
Yeah, he's been in my team quite a long time and you know how much I change my team around but he's been in there for quite a long time. Nick Newman's the other one. We've seen the seasonal ceiling as well. We have. A lot to like. Nick Newman's the other guy. 410 scores last year.
00:41:19
Speaker
Just think about the fact that he was coming off playing only the two games in 2020, though, with that long layoff with a knee injury. So second year back from that big long layoff, strung together a lot of games, finished the season with 94 in his last five and 100 in his last three, priced at 86. And the other thing, he's got a really juicy early schedule. So I'm probably not one to throw too many pods in my team necessarily, but Nick Newman, one that you could maybe potentially get around, Louis.
00:41:48
Speaker
No, for me, he's priced a little bit too close to what he's been able to put up across his career. So I'm only seeing maybe a couple of points upside, which is just not going to be enough for someone who carries such a low ownership percentage. Yeah, it's probably not a great man to ask who's just said that Zach Williams is going to take the jump as well. So if you're taking his role, that's what he's doing. So on Collingwood, I've got Patrick Lapinski, who is a point of difference. He's a massive point of difference. And I'm just loving him. He's my pick.
00:42:18
Speaker
of the year, hasn't left my team. He's gonna have a chance now to show how good he can be, man, like 85.5 average back in 2019 for the Bulldogs with their stacked midfield group back then. He could score well without having that primary midfield role and he's never had that primary inside midfield role. Last year, ignore the average, he was the sub once for a 36 score as well, never had the nice role.
00:42:44
Speaker
Guess his center bounce attendance rate for this season. Not 10%, not 15%, 20%. No. He only ever got to attend center bounces in two games for a season average of 3% attendance. So averaged 115 in the VFL, including a huge ceiling. 143 against the cats in there. I just love Patrick Lipinski for a massive year this year. Are you about it? He's only in the 600K area. He's $606,000.
00:43:12
Speaker
Oh look, it'll be interesting to see where he sort of slots in in that Pies Midfield. I did say earlier on in the podcast that they do have a little bit of depth there and some young kids are coming through too, but they brought him to the club for a reason and you're certainly going off some pretty good data there too, averaging 85 a couple of years ago in the Dogs Midfield Brigade.
00:43:34
Speaker
Obviously Collin would like to share the footy around too, at least they did under Buckley. So he's someone at his price point I could see someone taking the punt on and I think potentially there is you know 20 points upside there if it comes off. I don't think he's going to be the big big scorer that we're seeing in the VFL either.
00:43:53
Speaker
uh... yeah uh... i can say i can say if he gets the role you're right that it's very role dependent but i'm a huge fan the other guy i'm just on the social sorry doc said they know pretty happy to put out pictures of patty lepinski too so we need to focus on those it is a thing that you and i both like looking at you know who's gonna who's the marquee players they're putting out there they want everyone to see lepinski definitely one of the big ones finn mcrae is my other guy and
00:44:20
Speaker
Obviously, the big McRae name is always handy to have, but slightly more expensive than a rookie at 351k. But I think there's a second year breakout potential here. And again, it just comes down to who they choose in that midfield mix with the new coach. You're completely correct. There's a lot of guys vying for that spot. So 94 fantasy average in the reserves. He's much fitter and stronger. I don't know if you saw the pitcher today came out in monster pipes on him as well.
00:44:47
Speaker
We saw his brother as well or half brother do the the big second year break out and it was kind of similar setup to what we had with with Finn McRae so He averaged over three match stretch. He had he had 50% center bounces from night round 19 to 21
00:45:04
Speaker
In that stretch, he was averaging 0.86 points per minute. So I know it's only a three game sample and I'm sort of cherry picking my stats, but that was, if we remember Clayton Oliver's rookie year, he went at 0.84 points per minute before jumping up in his second year and having the better role. So he's, that stretch where he actually had a half decent role, it's very,
00:45:26
Speaker
It's picking and choosing, Louis, but, you know, Finn McRae, if he does get the role, which it's going to be hard to get, it's going to be hard to get. If he does get it, though, watch out. There's a second year breakout coming. Yeah, look, it's very hard to pick the second year breakout. All I can think of off the top of my head is Clayton Oliver and his brother Jackson McRae. Chad Wingard's was monstrous as well. Chad Wingard, I think Nat 5-2 a couple of years ago was very, very good, too.
00:45:52
Speaker
Look, at 351k, I think you can do a lot worse, Dos. What that sort of price presents itself as is, if it does go wrong, you can just go down to the next best guy and you're pretty much going to have your pick of the bunch. Whereas if it does go right, let's say you've got that extra change to whack it on top of someone anyway,
00:46:11
Speaker
well then you're going to be laughing if potentially you know they do put up that second year breakout dose of 105 that you think could be coming but look that being said I think he's cheap enough to be able to take the punt on him and if it doesn't work out then he's at that price point where you can quite comfortably go down
00:46:30
Speaker
pocket yourself maybe 60 to 70 K whack that on top of a rookie that maybe you didn't nail or maybe a mid price or a premium that you didn't quite get right or gets injured on quite early on in the season. So no, I don't mind that at all.
00:46:47
Speaker
Yeah, it's just a roll watch, isn't it? That one. It's I think there's too many contending, but just wanted to flag it as a pod. And that is a pod pod pod. Hey, Louie. It's bloody good to have you back, mate. And thanks for joining us again on our beloved pod pod.
00:47:01
Speaker
No worries mate, just warm up a little bit more, a little bit rusty, but I'm keen to be back joining you and the statesman for 2022. Beauty mate, and a reminder to finish off, you can get all our in-season content if you become a silver or gold member of the keeper league.
00:47:18
Speaker
So look up the keepaleagpod.com.au, sign up to be a silver or gold member and you can gain weekly access to our in-season pod pod podcasts. Members also gain access to advanced center bounce attendance analysis numbers, state league fantasy scores to keep on top of all those, draft the analysis guide for before the season starts so you can get your rookie research done.
00:47:40
Speaker
and much, much more over there on keeperleaguepod.com.au. Sign up as a silver or gold member, gain access to our in-season pods. We'll see you next week.