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A Guide For The Byes & A Mailbag Surprise | #PODPod
88 Plays4 years ago
Dos & Lewy discuss the (now confirmed) potential for Thursday night team announcements and finally address bye structure! Then the lads check out a few rookie options to consider and answer a stack of your questions in a monster mailbag sesh! A laid-back, chilled PODPOD for your listening pleasure.
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Transcript
Introduction and Recording Setup
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference AFL Fantasy Podcast, a fresh perspective on AFL fantasy brought to you by the Keeper League Pod. Now apologies for being crook on this episode. Me and Louis are recording separate again. Hopefully the nasals aren't too bad for your listening pleasure, but we'll be back together as soon as we're healthy. On this episode though, Louis and I have our first real chat about buy structure. We look at some rookie options and answer a whole stack of listener questions on
Louis' Impressive Week and Strategy
00:00:28
Speaker
The Pod Pod!
00:00:46
Speaker
Welcome to the Pod Pod, I'm Dos here with Louis again on the Discord but we're still happy to be back talking some AFL fantasy classic here on a Monday night. Louis, you are absolutely tearing the competition to shreds, soaring up the rankings mate, what's going on?
00:01:05
Speaker
Yeah, I just happened to get on the end of a good week this week, which is nice. So I managed to score the 2,276, which actually put me 11th for the round. So I was pretty frantically scrolling on that last day, hoping I might get number one, get a free footy, but 10 short. But that's OK, because I managed to jump quite a bit in the overall rankings.
00:01:27
Speaker
Now, what's been the key to success over these last few weeks, you just have been rising the ranks. Now, do you reckon it was a lot of the starting team that you started with and you just stuck with structures or is it just been a few cheeky trades that's really started moving you up the leaderboard here? Because you started off the season, I think you were telling me pre-pod around that 10,000 sort of rank mark.
00:01:46
Speaker
Yeah, I did start about 11,000 round one. That's not that unusual. Often it's a bit of rookie roulette round one. So, you know, you can be ranked 30,000 after round one and have it not mean much. But in terms of sort of the ranking climb that I have had in the last few weeks, it's just been about timing. So I've managed to jump on Trelore and Titch in the same week that they posted their best scores for the season.
00:02:11
Speaker
then jumped on RCD and Hall this week obviously Hall had that 133 so and then just a few little rookie adjustments early on in the season has had me be able to field sort of guys like Devon Robertson and Bergman over other blokes like your Anthony Scots and your Jacob Kaczynski so that that's helped quite a bit I think. And getting a hundred out of a little bit of a hold for Jordan to go as well wouldn't it hurt you this week as well there Louis?
00:02:37
Speaker
What was it wasn't it about time? I'm not gonna give him my plus three this week because I've had to crawl through shit for seven weeks But it was really nice to be rewarded with that 106 Let's talk about our nailed it failed it then and my nailed it for the week is
Player Performance and Trade Insights
00:02:52
Speaker
the
00:02:52
Speaker
Bond just been a unique selection for me all season He's sort of been a bit of an up-and-down roller coaster But he can get on a hot streak and I'm hoping this is the start of one He is averaging me nearly 106 for the year around 105.5 Louie rented it up there, but he went for a hundred and thirty one in this game He's been pretty solid in the last couple of weeks while he's turned up for the last four straight and he's had two 130s in there so
00:03:18
Speaker
I'm just hoping he can have a nice run here. Sometimes he can really get hot for a couple of months straight. And I just love having that little bit of a unique option in my midfield as well there, Lou.
00:03:28
Speaker
Yeah, he's going seriously under the radar with what he's been able to do the last four weeks. Bontz and Pelly only really had that quiet two weeks early on in the season. So, he looked good yesterday though, didn't he? So, definitely passes the eye test. You'd imagine Bontt out of the side as well. He's not going to hurt his centre bounce attendance numbers. The thing that actually annoys me with the Bontt is they always, if the dogs are up and about,
00:03:52
Speaker
And I mean, they were sort of struggling for a lot of this game, but got on top in the last quarter over the Blues. They put the cue in the rack with the bond. He never gets garbage minutes. It's like he gets one third, you know, 120 say in the first three quarters. And then they sort of just like sit him forward in the last quarter. So he never get, he could have gone 150, 160 in this game and they just sort of sat him forward. And that's just the one issue being a bond owner. You're always wanting those last minute stats. And it's generally doesn't happen with him, but who was your, nailed it for the week.
00:04:22
Speaker
It'd be hard not to give it to Aaron Hall this week so he came in on debut obviously and scored me the 133 so always love when you can get some instant rewards and Aaron Hall definitely provided that.
00:04:35
Speaker
He's been awesome just these last few weeks. And he was bargain priced based on those time on ground stats. We did sort of flag it in last week's pod. I mean, everyone did in the fantasy world. I think he was one of the most traded in players. Is it too late for people that, you know, based on my trades, I just couldn't bring him in this week. I just didn't have the cash. I couldn't find the cash. He's still under priced. If you look at his
00:04:57
Speaker
Performance when he has been playing full time on ground is he still an option you know what is the six thirty three K now if you were a non owner Louie have we missed the boat.
00:05:08
Speaker
Um, I'm probably inclined to say you have missed it, but it's 633 K. He does present a little bit of value still. So I think if you can get up a, let's say a bench rookie, maybe Brockman, who's not playing on your field, if you can get him up to Aaron Hall, I think that's a really good option, but I probably wouldn't be chasing it through an on ground upgrade.
00:05:29
Speaker
OK, fair enough. I failed it for the week, Louis. Oh, dear me. My whole trade scenario this weekend. So I wasn't able to bring in RCD on Friday night because I was playing my C grade footy on the Friday night. We had the Friday night game. I just couldn't lock away my trades so early. I needed those teams. And unfortunately, I was in the change rooms warming up, putting on the long sleeve Guernsey ready for my C grade matchup, and just missed out on doing anything meaningful with RCD. He would have been a great rookie to bring in and get that cash gen.
00:05:59
Speaker
Then my mind just circulated towards I need to get some rookies that are going to last me a while here because we're struggling to find those rooks. I went your boy. We mentioned him a few times. Rhino Burns. Not complaining about him. I actually really like Rhino Burns and we'll probably touch on him later in our rookie segment. So I brought in him. But my other one.
00:06:20
Speaker
Just the scenario, the whole scenario. I traded, I had to choose one of two players to trade out. It was either Anthony Scott or Patty Dow. And we know my affinity with Patty Dow. I just couldn't do it. And I thought with Anthony Scott's late injury last week, they brought in Buku Karmas. I was like, oh, this is Anthony Scott. He's going to have a rest here. He hasn't been doing that great.
00:06:44
Speaker
All of a sudden, he's still cash generating. Patty Dow goes down to the twos, gets 22 touches, but doesn't get any other stats. He didn't even get in the best. Don't think he's coming back any time soon. And guess who I brought in? Louis as well. Another saint player. I don't even think we even talked about the pod last week. Jack Beitel. Okay. Oh, you didn't in the end, did you?
00:07:07
Speaker
I got him. I got him. Don't you listen, Dos? Look, there was some goat memes going out there. I gave him the curse. I gave him the latest curse of the goat for Jack Beitel. And anyway, don't ask me any more questions about that. What did he score? What did he score? It was in the 50s, OK? It was in the 50s. OK.
00:07:24
Speaker
I got him as that trying to make that... Yeah, anyway, don't ask. I do this every year to myself. I don't know what I'm doing.
Community Engagement and Pod Plus
00:07:30
Speaker
I've stuffed that one up. I actually didn't even mention my score. I scored 2018, which probably given what I did for the round, wasn't the worst score I could have got. I'm just hoping those two St. Rookies or rookie price players can push me through to their round 14, but I just hope they get the green dot. Something I'll be praying for going forward. What about your failed it, Louis, before we move on?
00:07:52
Speaker
In all honesty, I didn't actually have one. I can't sit here and say that Tom Powell's 58 I'm disappointed with because that was my lowest score on field. You did. 11th overall for the round. Absolutely outstanding.
00:08:08
Speaker
Well, guys, if you enjoy the podcast, then join up to be a member of Pod Pod Plus for an extra weekly podcast recorded on a Wednesday night with five-time top 100 finisher, The Statesman, with a heavy focus on answering your questions. You get to join the exclusive Pod Squad Facebook group as well
Navigating Buy Rounds
00:08:25
Speaker
to
00:08:25
Speaker
throw around your trade ideas and brainstorm with other Pod Pod Plus members and it's quickly becoming an AFL fantasy think tank there with some elite coaches joining up and certainly a few players with impressive rankings floating about in the Pod Squad just like yourself there, Lou Dogg as well. But last but not least, you also get a shout out on this podcast if you join up. So a warm welcome to the latest Pod Squad members joining up for Pod Pod Plus and I'll read out some more next week because there was just
00:08:54
Speaker
Too many names to get in in one podcast and you might get a non-nasally shout out with the cold next week. But welcome to the Pod Squad. Steven Summers, Dermot Hare, Craig Tuffery, Matthew Sterling, Mark Allen, Ryan Gershwich, Darryl Smith, Kyle Holmes, Matthew Dennis, David Potter, John Vogan, Mark Ackland, Troy Tobin, Locky Malcolm, James English, Daniel Cottom,
00:09:18
Speaker
Kieran Harding, Paul Buck, Ben Powell and Stephen Cox. A huge thanks to all our new members. Head to keeplegpod.com.au, go to the premium resources tab and hit bonus episodes or click the link in the podcast description and sign up today. Louis, Thursday night teams. Do you reckon we got a chance this week to get them?
00:09:38
Speaker
Oh, I reckon we're a sneaky chance. Haven't heard anything from the AFL yet, but clearly, as we saw for nine weeks, they don't care about their fans and quite happy to not release the team. So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see an announcement for when they do eventually happen. But it should be in the next few weeks, shouldn't it? Oh, surely. I'm hoping the sooner the better. It's no reason. Forget fantasy, Dos. I want to talk about my football team on a Friday. Is that so much to ask?
00:10:07
Speaker
I know, it's a nice talking point for the week. And yeah, I think the whole talking point about, you know, changing, making so many changes and Chris Scott's argument, like I understand that there will be a few different changes, but it's not going to be that different. Like you're going to have your base list and we're going to probably know most of the people we want to know about anyway. And at least we know if rookies are sort of in that frame to be selected. I think mainly with the rookies, if you name a rookie as well,
00:10:36
Speaker
they're gonna play because you don't want to give a kid hope like that so at least with the rookies usually we know so that's where in fantasy sense it's so much better to have them ready to go on the Thursday anyway selfishly for us but Louie I think one of the big things we want to talk about in this show so
00:10:53
Speaker
We're obviously gonna talk about rookies and answer a stack of questions, but we haven't really, we really touched on briefly in the last couple of weeks, buy structure. And we certainly touched on it in Pod Pod Plus with Statesman, but I haven't really talked to you. I wanna get your real plan for the buy and your thoughts around it. Cause I know you do a lot of planning for the buyers and it's, you know, part of the reason why I think even your rank right now might be a bit low as to where you are gonna finish.
Rookie Selections and Strategy
00:11:18
Speaker
So let's talk through your buy strategy and your buy structures.
00:11:22
Speaker
Look with buy rounds, first of all there's multiple ways to plan the buys, there's multiple ways to do it and there's no real right answer so the way I like to look at it and it's quite simple is that I want 18 players on my field every single week so
00:11:39
Speaker
What we do find is that can be quite difficult to keep track of because we've got 30 players and then maybe you've only got 18 to 21 playing each week throughout those buys. So instead of counting the number of players that I've got, the round 12 buy, the round 13 buy, the round 14 buy, I actually combine two buy rounds together. So I might go, okay, buy round 12, I'm going to write down all my players with the buy round 13 and buy round 14.
00:12:08
Speaker
put them in a list together as a team, there might be 21 people there. I'm going to work out which ones are still going to be there at the buy rounds and which one I'm going to be planning to offload before then. At least then I can get a rough idea of how many players I'm actually going to have each week and I'm not going to have to frantically trade and use two or three trades just to get somebody
00:12:32
Speaker
on as a 19th or a 20th man in one buy around just to be disadvantaged the next week. So you just really you got to keep track of that. So with that list, make sure when you do your trades from now on, if you're trading out to buy around 13 players, you need to update that list and also include the two players that you do trade in. That's the easiest way that I find to be able to have 18 to 21 players on ground each week.
00:12:59
Speaker
And of course you want to be moving on your red dots because there's no secret that the best coaches in the buy rounds don't have 18 players on field. They've actually got 20 to 21 and they're able to sort of get those top 18 scores and put up something really respectable. Whereas some coaches you might get caught out with an Anthony Scott or an Alexander Scott at M8. So just watch out for that one. That's exactly how I plan my buy rounds.
00:13:24
Speaker
Maybe that's a bit to ingest, but it's really quite simple. You just need to stay on top of it and have a look at where you are now. If you are extremely heavy in one buy-around, it is now time to start making moves to do that. At the same time, it's round nine now, so we've got two, four, we've got seven trades until the first buy-around, which is quite nice and you've still got a little bit of time to make some little fix-ups.
00:13:51
Speaker
So just correct me if I'm wrong. So it's basically down to the basics of it. It's just don't count your players that you've got in those bar rounds. It has to be the players that you'll actually be getting a score out of in that bar. And now that just includes the rookies that aren't going to get your score. Like your, your Finn McCray, maybe you can't just assume he's going to play or Jay Rantel. You can't just assume they're going to play, even though we hope they're back by then, but it's really just counting how many players you genuinely know will be playing.
00:14:18
Speaker
you know, save injury during those buyers. And that's, you want to make yourself a list and just update that week to week and just make sure that's up to date heading towards the buy. That's if you really want to take it seriously because I mean, I think a lot of our podcast listeners take their fantasy pretty seriously, Louis, and they're looking to make an advancements through the buyers. And I know that the statesman certainly thinks this and I know I'm pretty sure you're on the same page.
00:14:44
Speaker
The buy-around is really where you can make huge advancements versing the rest of the competition that haven't sort of adjusted and prepared themselves for the buy-arounds. Is that correct? Yeah, pretty much. Dossy, spot on, mate. Perfect. Moving on now, we'll get to our first segment and only segment for this show. We're not going heavy on the segments tonight, but we're going to show me the money. Show me the money! Show me the money!
00:15:13
Speaker
Show me the money, Louis. Our top five rookie candidates based on break even and job security. I think there's some nice ones. This week we've been blessed with a couple of midfield rookies.
00:15:23
Speaker
Yeah, so you said top five, I've actually put up a top three. And the reason I've done that is because you want to be cautious now, especially as we approach the buyers of trading in blokes that actually aren't going to be there around 12, 13 or 14. So you want to make sure that you are trading in blokes that do at least have some discernible job security or the rest of the competition is jumping on too. So that risk is mitigated. So that's why I've got Riley Collier Dawkins, number one.
00:15:52
Speaker
Obviously he's already quite highly owned. He's also the cheapest of these three rookies as well. He's averaging 63.5 from his two games with a minus 10 breakeven. I really see his job security as being up there. We're seeing him at center bounces. We've got Trent Cochin on the sidelines with a hammy. We've got probably a little bit of an underdone Dustin Martin and
00:16:12
Speaker
What we've seen from the Tigers early on in the season, they like to actually pump games into their youth and then they really load up with their experienced players later on in the season. So I think we'll see Riley Collier-Dawkins actually play most games, I think every single game up until his bye.
00:16:28
Speaker
Far out, I mean, that's good to know. And yeah, as a person that obviously missed out last week, I'm glad that you're saying that so I can happily jump on and hopefully that's correct. And we can sort of ride him out for a little while yet and still get a lot of cash even if we did miss out. But who's your second man? I think he's your boy. And also my boy, I've got to say, bit of observable thirst from old Rhino Burns. He does love a plus six. He really screams for it. He's not afraid to ask for it from the veterans in his team.
00:16:58
Speaker
Yeah, so Ryan Burns, he's my number two. He's averaging 66.5 from his two games. He's also got the minus 10 break even. And yeah, you're right about that observable thirst, Dossie. I thought in his first game, nine marks, you know, how repeatable is that? That's quite impressive that he was able to do that in his second game of AFL football. But he backed it up in his third and got five marks, which is nothing to sneeze at either. So I really like him as an option. I think
00:17:25
Speaker
His job security is OK. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get dropped this week.
00:17:30
Speaker
which you know maybe sounds quite shocking but with the Saints we've seen that each week they've been happy to swing that axe when things haven't gone their way so yeah I just keep an eye on it but I do think he will play this week I think he probably plays the week after and then after that obviously you're just you're taking a guess as you do with most rookies. Number three I've got Poulter I think his name's Caleb Poulter
00:17:56
Speaker
He's at the pies, he's playing a wing roll, he's very very good in the VFL this year too, so I think he was averaging well and truly into the 90s at VFL level. He's repeating that at AFL level, he's not averaging 90 but he's going at 58.5 from his two games with a four break even. I think his job security might be
00:18:16
Speaker
Pretty good, just because I think that Bucks wants to get some games into the youth at the moment, especially with Collingwood struggling, and Poults is holding his own on that wing too, so why not pump some extra games into him? Well, in this game they actually even put him down the back line a bit too, and put him behind the ball, and he looked really comfortable there too, so I think they've got a couple of looks at him in different positions as well, and yeah, he looks comfortable at AFL level, which maybe you could say
00:18:44
Speaker
the McRae's and the Rantell's didn't but they also didn't get to play their position so I think that's a bit unfair to say but Poulter certainly has looked comfortable at the level and I think you're right he's got pretty good job security if you do want to pay up a little bit more and you've already got the RCD and Burns per se he should be pretty safe for you going forward as well I'd say the same thing. I've got some top five here just quickly
00:19:06
Speaker
prezzies from the ressies, players that perform well in the reserves and have a chance to get in a call up. One that really was a popular name in the pre-season before he got injured, but Trent Bianco for Collingwood as well, another Collingwood player that we could see get a debut soon. 170k defender.
00:19:24
Speaker
played his first game for the year in the VFL this week. 29 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles and 130 AFL fantasy points. So he's probably one that you could jump on straight away at 170k when he gets the red dot. I think anyway, Louie, what do you think on Bianco?
00:19:42
Speaker
I think you can. The only thing playing devil's advocate with that is that many coaches also jumped on McCray in Rantle and got burnt for it. So I guess you could apply the same logic to Poulter as well. That's playing devil's advocate.
00:19:58
Speaker
The positive in me says that he probably plays next week, gets a debut next week, one more game in the VFL I think, and he's a legitimate target because what he was able to do, his junior numbers were seriously elite. A couple more pies smashing it in the VFL I mentioned before, Finn McCray 31 disposals including 24 handballs, does love a handball, for 92 AFL fantasy points in that same game, and Rand Tell who we're hoping gets back in 27 disposals, 4 marks 85 fantasy points.
00:20:28
Speaker
So hopefully we get a few more pies breaking back into the team. I mean, they weren't that impressive against Kangaroos, so it's probably safe to say they're not going to be super spectacular for the rest of the season. You'd imagine now we've got a pretty good sample size. Hopefully those guys come back in for us. I wonder what I'll ask you about this player actually.
00:20:46
Speaker
because he might be handy for people holding Flynn and some others, but 170K ruck, we've got Sam Hayes of the Power. He was playing primary ruck ahead of Peter Lattoms, who had three snags as well in this game, but for Power in the sample, 40 hit outs, 14 disposal, 75 fantasy points. Does he get a game with Lysette probably going to spend some weeks on the sideline through that hit in the showdown as well on Ned McHenry?
00:21:15
Speaker
Doss, I think it would be a 50-50 chance, which is actually quite crazy because obviously Sam Hayes doesn't play the game and Peter Lattoms is in some okay form in the sandfall. He's played AFL already this year. You'd think you'd plug him in and play him, but...
00:21:31
Speaker
I've heard that Sam Hayes internally and he has been for a number of years is extremely highly rated and I think it would be in Port's best interests to give him a bit of a taste of AFL level because soon clubs are going to come knocking with more money than he deserves to get paid right now. So I think Port, if they can start fast tracking that development at AFL level, they'll be better off for it. So I'll go as far to say that Sam Hayes will play this year and
00:21:59
Speaker
I reckon he's definitely a chance to play this week.
00:22:03
Speaker
Yeah, just given the fact he was actually playing ahead of Latham's in the primary ruck slot, maybe tells me they want Latham's to be that chopout for Lysette or even maybe Hayes if he does fill in for Lysette. I don't know, it's one to watch for and just a bit of a cash trap. Latham's is not a ruckman. Latham's is not a ruckman for Port Adelaide. He'll always be a chopout forward, which is probably where we can maybe read into maybe Hayes does get a game.
00:22:29
Speaker
Perfect. Luke Valente, another guy that was hot on the lips of fantasy coaches in the pre-says and 23 I suppose was 82 fantasy points in the waffle. I don't know, maybe just a little way off still. They've just got so many mids. I reckon Cher is probably only a few weeks away with his ankle. And is he playing in Perth at the moment too?
00:22:49
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, so he won't be seen for the next two weeks then with Frio playing in Melbourne, I think at the moment. Alright, we'll write him off the list for a little bit, but one to monitor. Ronin O'Connor, another, we mentioned him last week, the Adelaide player, 170k, another strong game, just one to monitor for a 170k downgrade at
Sponsorship and Listener Questions
00:23:07
Speaker
some point. 89 fantasy points, 23 disposals, 3 marks, 6 tackles, and 5 for his 4, so I don't know what that,
00:23:13
Speaker
You know, probably six tackles he might have had a few holding the balls, maybe a bit of a jolt sell with Ducker, we'll have to figure that out when we get a little good. But Jackson Haightley had 140 fantasy points in that game, so I think he's ahead of him, and we're not looking at Haightley as a rookie option, but he'd be ahead of O'Connor in the pecke order you'd imagine.
00:23:30
Speaker
If you want those sample VFL waffle numbers every week as well, you can support the keeper league pod who's a sponsor of this show, go sign up there and you can get access to those numbers as well as CBA's weekly projections and those state league fantasy scores. All right, listener questions, Lou Dogg, time to get onto those. And we shall start off with our Twitter questions. So you can find us at podpodafl on Twitter.
00:23:55
Speaker
We're also on Facebook and Instagram now, so go follow us on those platforms.
Trade Strategies and Considerations
00:24:00
Speaker
Point of difference AFL fantasy podcast on there, just search for that. All right, first question from Craig at Sub Dub. Is harms worth the risk if it allows him to get another rookie off the ground? So what do you think on James harms? I think we poo-pooed it last week. We spat on it, fapoo. But what do you think about it this way?
00:24:21
Speaker
I'd like to see which rookie here moves on. If that's a bench rookie, then absolutely, I think it's a really nice move and there's little risk in that sort of move. If it's somebody, let's say a Chad Warner, then no, you know, you keep Chad Warner over James Harms. So what I think about James Harms though is like he and Jimmy Jordan, it's probably between them who holds their spot when Viny comes back, right?
00:24:49
Speaker
unless Hamsi was playing backline, I'm assuming he got a run through the mid. So I think Viney's only a week or two away. So I'm just, I don't like that paying cash up for Hams.
00:25:00
Speaker
I think that would have been the case at the start of the year when James Jordan hadn't shown as much, but I really think Melbourne will find a way to get those two playing together in the same team. Okay. We won't spit on it this week. We'll see though. I don't rate harms personally, but as an upgrade target in fantasy, from a bench rookie, I like it. I do.
00:25:22
Speaker
Do I get the cash by trading a bench rookie like Barry to any 170 K rookie? This is from the same question Named this week or by going water to our CD. So you tried to answer that in the first one Is that what you're saying there Louie as well?
00:25:35
Speaker
Yeah, so, yeah, do I get the cash for trading a bench rookie like Barry? Look, if there's a 170 guy with job security, yes, otherwise I think you're just compounding your problem, really, and you're gonna be trading out a bloke who's maybe 200k maximum a few weeks later.
00:25:54
Speaker
I'd say if it's Bianco, he's probably the only one I'd say they'll give you a few weeks if he does get a game. Yeah. Warl should get a go, but yeah, there's not many coming through at the moment. Maybe Ralph Smith. Lockymauks of our Poplar Plus member there. I have a lot of players with a round 12 buy. Is it worth grabbing
00:26:12
Speaker
a premium who doesn't have the round 12 buyer, even if you think they are going to score 15 to 20 points less each week over the coming weeks, purely to even out by week numbers. So this is a good one because we've been talking about buyer strategy on this pod. What do you think on that?
00:26:29
Speaker
That's a big jump in premium, 15 to 20 points per week. So I'm not sure whether that's the difference between Aaron Hall and maybe someone in the 700Ks. Look, it really depends on your buy structure. I haven't seen it. This week with my trades, I actually stretched and went a little bit heavier in round 12 to get Aaron Hall. That was obviously four weeks out from round 12. Now we're three.
00:26:58
Speaker
It's a tricky, it's a tricky question, mate. I'd probably play conservative, play the long game, and go that premium who's going to be in your team at the end of the year regardless, and fix up that buy structure a little bit. Jack James, is it all right to trade Warner if it means getting a top six defender or a top eight mid? His options here, yes. So that's yes, then his options. Titch Gaff Mills Stewart. Pick one, please, legends. Cheers, boys. Hashtag, it's the Pod Pod.
00:27:28
Speaker
Titch. Alright, easy enough. Titch. Tom, Tom DT. Our rookie selections are uber critical at the moment for buy rounds. What are the best rooks at the moment that you can see playing through the buy rounds? Hesitant on burns for this reason. So we did have our rookie segment before. You're standing by just those those three picks there.
00:27:51
Speaker
Those three to bring in, otherwise Warner should be there, Gordon should be there, Power should be there, I think Collier Dawkins was mentioned in that list, I think he'll be there, James Jordan he'll be there, Bergman maybe might not be there, Cozzie will be there, Sam Barry will be there.
00:28:11
Speaker
Oh, there's a lot of rookies that should be available. So yeah, you got to start fixing them up to bring in the ones that will be there.
00:28:22
Speaker
Is that what he's trying to say? I don't know if it's that or I think he's talking about players that like we just went through the the players to bring in that are cheap like yeah. So yeah probably those three it's quite difficult with blokes like that obviously priced under 250K because you throw darts at a dartboard you got no idea how many weeks they'll get. I don't think any coach would have predicted that James Jordan would have played every single game up until around nine.
00:28:50
Speaker
Yeah, it is, it is tough at this point of the season to find those players that are coming through. And I think that's why, you know, if hopefully Burns, he gets name and his role is actually quite a nice role. He actually plays kind of that high half forward rolls into the packs, like an extra midfielder. He's actually got a really mint role and something I don't think, um, a guy like Luke Dunston, for instance, who's probably pushing for selection is going to take off him. I don't think he's got that. Um,
00:29:17
Speaker
that string to his bow that Burns is able to do. And we've seen that with his uncontested marks, just able to get around the ground. Anyway, yeah, RC Dan Burns for me, hopefully Burns holds that role for you and you can go on to him and he can have that role for the next few weeks. But I just, there's not that many out there and a guy likes Jordan Sweet, who we've seen Steph Martin going to be out for a week or two more.
Injury Management and Fantasy Impact
00:29:40
Speaker
He's going to be okay, but you know, you're probably going to have
00:29:43
Speaker
your ruckset anyway by now. So there's really not that many options to choose from and maybe your paulter and the other two that we mentioned RCD and Burns are probably your only bet at the moment unless we get some luck this week with some green dots, Louis and some debutantes. Nathan, what do I do with Houston? So he had the shoulder injury this week unfortunately, was looking like a banger pick, nice price, all the works but he's now injured. I haven't seen an injury report but any exclusive on that one?
00:30:13
Speaker
I haven't heard anything about Dan Houston. We did see a couple of weeks ago that he did hurt his shoulder and was able to get back up the next week. So maybe we can look into that as being positive. Maybe it's negative because it's already happened before. So yeah, just wait for the injury report on that one. But in terms of what I do with him, I think you've got a great opportunity in making 5K and just going down to Jordan Ridley.
00:30:37
Speaker
Yeah, that's, that's one of your best options. That just, that seems the simplest to me, unless you've got some money there to, you know, spend up and get a guy who maybe is a little bit better than Ridley, but it's a good opportunity to do it. Doug Fitzpatrick, he's got a trade, a trade to talk about here and he wants to know if we do this trade. Now it is Errol Golden and Jack Zebel out for Rory Sloan and Ridley, your boy there.
00:31:05
Speaker
So the thing that he's talking about, this leaves him with Bergman as rookie and backline and mid with 6-100 players. It's hard to read that one mate, sorry, but you wouldn't be trading Zebel, would you?
00:31:20
Speaker
No, that trade just sort of seems like you're going sideways with the first one because Sloan's not going to be in your completed side most likely. And with the other one, you're just going plain backwards, I think. Sorry, I just got my dog giving me grief.
00:31:36
Speaker
No that's alright mate and I think maybe I guess if that's talking about Jack Zebel being injured is that what maybe you'd be trading there but he came back on the ground so I think he'll be fine. Yeah I thought Zebel was fine from that I did see it but he came back on the ground.
00:31:53
Speaker
So, just keep an eye on that, Doug, but that seems a little bit, yeah, sideways-y for us, I think both of us are in the same book there. Dylan, Golden and Campbell for Parrish and Oeys. Do you tick that one off? No, you've missed the boat on Parrish now, so Sheil and Caldwell will be back.
00:32:11
Speaker
I think she'll be first and then Coldwell a few weeks after that. So you do have time for Parrish to keep scoring like he is, but we have to remember that Parrish was 570k about four weeks ago when that roll sort of opened up in that midfield and now it's really hard. It's like chasing points there, I think.
00:32:31
Speaker
Lex Turnbull, if Houston is out, I'm looking at him and a rookie to two mid prices, Rosie and Harms. What do we think? Doesn't want us to tell his league mate, Roland, what he's doing there, because he wants to get an upper hand on there. So I shouldn't have said that, but what do you reckon on that? Rosie and Harms there, Louis.
00:32:52
Speaker
Look, I'm probably not as against it as what many would think. Depending on the situation he's in, he's actually got a real point of difference move there and potentially is going to sort of spread his points out a little bit further than what he would have with Houston and a rookie.
00:33:09
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind it. Just be mindful that obviously you've got Rosie with the round 12 buy, but these are two blokes who are not going to be in your team at the end of the year, presumably, and just that sometimes you can get stuck with them. We've seen some blokes, they can't trade out techs. I mean, I haven't been able to trade out Jordan de Goey for two months now, so just be mindful of that. But no, I don't actually mind that move.
00:33:37
Speaker
Lippers123, when doing the one-up, one-down strategy, do you have a price point where you decide who goes up and who you should be upgrading, e.g. $400K, et cetera?
00:33:50
Speaker
That's a really good question. I've never really thought about it to be honest. I guess it sort of works both ways anyway, whether you go from a 600k down and then 200 up. So I sort of tend to do more one down strategy based around who plays first. So at least I can, with this rolling lockout, if someone plays on the Friday,
00:34:13
Speaker
I can lock in that trade as my downgrade regardless if it's a 400k guy or a 200k guy and then I'll wait on my second trade and I'll do that when I have to. So, no, I don't really take preference in what price they're at, just sort of who plays first.
00:34:29
Speaker
I tend to also just the break even I mean as well you know if the players just got a way high break even and they're unlikely to achieve it and they're going to start dropping in price is that what he's meaning as well sort of it's more if they're if they're still going to be rising in price when you dump that one one up one down so
00:34:46
Speaker
You know like a gold a golden verse a a warner you gonna jump off golden first because his break evens way higher and he's stopped his cash Jen. Yeah, yeah. Also what we're talking about. Yeah, so that that's the other obvious one once you start seeing red in terms of losing cash then yet sir. Watch the break even because sometimes they can just lose a couple of K and you can hold them for a couple of weeks but.
00:35:10
Speaker
It's time to move the mind once that break even gets far too high. Freo Girl, how long is too long to keep holding onto Flynn? He's stalling upgrades and it's easy to take him down to a rookie via DPP and another rookie up to an uber midfielder.
00:35:25
Speaker
Well, as long as you don't have a rookie R2, which I assume you don't if you're holding Flynn, now's the time to get rid of him. He is deadwood in R3. He could come back in the next couple of weeks, but really we've seen that Mumford is the number one man. If he does come back, he probably plays two games.
00:35:45
Speaker
before the buy, maybe one, they've only got three weeks now after that process fits so it's probably time to move on Flynn, you're not missing anything and especially if you can't get him on field anyway you're really just holding him for the sake of maybe 30k when at least in my example I traded him three weeks ago and I've made probably 150 to 200k in that time frame so
00:36:08
Speaker
You know, sometimes you get stuck in thinking that, oh, no, if I trade this guy a week early, I'm going to lose, you know, 20K. So for me, that was probably cosy last week. I was considering it. Don't get caught up in that at all, because at the end of the day, these guys are rookies and often you can make more money jumping onto another one or you'll be better off jumping onto a premium regardless. So, yeah, time to move on.
00:36:32
Speaker
Matthew Covino what's more important trade non-playing rookies to scoring ones or getting players with a low break even and a good roll from a rookie that is a chance to play like Brockman for example early trades are Zach Williams to harms and Brockman to row bottom but he has fleet sorry Finn McCray and Hymaw on his bench so does this come back to Statesman's number one rule which is rule effing one which is fixture red dots
00:37:01
Speaker
If you're listening to pod put plus, that's, that's his main goal is fix red dots and get them off the field. Are you on the same boat as Stado in that regard? Um, I'm not as hard on it as what Stado is during the year, but now that we're this close to the buy rounds, um, I'm right there with him. So you've got to start fixing up your red dots or, um,
00:37:21
Speaker
really sort out which players you can foreseeably see playing in the next couple of weeks because I know we want to trade out a high more I actually am this week most likely but and Brockman he's used in his own example these guys are close too so keep an eye on team sheets hopefully we'll get Thursday night team sheets this week yeah so it is it is important to get rid of those non-playing rookies but it does depend on
00:37:49
Speaker
your situation in particular, and with a Zach Williams to a harm, they've both got risk. You've been high on Zach Williams, but he has been atrocious this season. I reckon Patty Dow is more influential last week than Zach Williams was this week. You still reckon he's going to be all right at some point this year and to owners, now that you've gone this far, is it almost to the point of the Jordan to goy holders, which you held and it finally paid off this way?
00:38:16
Speaker
Does Zach Williams owners just stay strong for a while now? Yeah, so I'd die on this hill Doss. I think Zach Williams is a really good fantasy player. Unfortunately, there's been some teething issues. He's at Carlton, which probably historically haven't been the most
00:38:36
Speaker
not welcoming but they probably haven't been able to get their recruits to slot in as nicely as what they'd have liked so I'll use Mitch McGovern as probably the main example there so yeah this year obviously it's not the same old Zach Williams we saw at GWS but I do think as long as he's got that even if he's got the defensive role
00:38:59
Speaker
I think once Zach Williams clicks, he will average 80. It's just when that happens. So, look, you do have to hold, unfortunately, for now if you've still got him. And I assume if you've still got him, you held him for, I think he's missed two games already. So, you're not gaining anything, trading him now. A bit like my Jordan to go trade. You're just going to have to park him in the garage and bring him out when he's ready to play again.
Evaluating Player Potential and Risks
00:39:24
Speaker
Brady beer he's got thoughts on James harm. So hamsi must be a hot name in fantasy circles this weekend I've got to say I don't usually stick to a huge stance one way or another sometimes I do and this is one where I'm just like now I'm not I'm not about hamsi. I'm just I'm putting it out there I'm not about going and chasing hamsi. I think you're more
00:39:45
Speaker
open to the idea, but I just want to put it out there. I'm not on the harms train. I'm not about it. I don't want to get involved and I'm definitely not boarding the train. So I just want to put that out there for myself. And Louie, he's sort of, he's got one foot on the train. He's sort of, he's almost jumping on, but I don't think he's really that keen. There's a means to do it. There's a means to do it. I didn't like trading in Aaron Hall last week at all. It paid off obviously, but
00:40:11
Speaker
The reason that I justified it is that I was moving on a bloke that wasn't playing on my bench to Aaron Hall. So anything I received, even if that were 60 was actually a positive. So if that's the way you're getting James harms, then I don't mind it at all. There's enough reasoning to suggest that he can average sort of 85 in the role that he's got, but it is James harms. It's not good at football.
00:40:34
Speaker
I'll just say, if he's in the midfield, if the reason you're picking him is because he's got that midfield clock, just think again, because I don't think he'll, like, Vaini's going to take it off him. So that's what I'd just say. I didn't see the game. If he got that off half back and he was looking good, then, then go ahead. But if he was put on midfield and he
00:40:50
Speaker
I disagree with that Doss. The messaging has been that Harms will play midfield throughout that whole pre-season and that him playing defence was basically a fail that's been admitted. So yeah, maybe you are right and they have changed their mind but I would actually keep a close eye on it. I think he will play midfield.
00:41:09
Speaker
All right, Paul, is a double downgrade this week too dangerous? I prefer the one up, one down, but I'm cashed out and need cash gen. Not much on the horizon though, by the looks of it. So we, I mean, Louis only had three in, show me the money, our famous segment there. So what do you think, a double downgrade? I mean, depends on who you've got, doesn't it? I mean, I see Dan Burns, you'd be happy double downgrading to those two, but if you've already got one or both, then maybe not.
00:41:37
Speaker
Yeah, this is it. The thing about a double downgrade that makes it so dangerous is that you're trading in two blokes with unknown job security. So you could be wasting two trades just to throw two trades away four weeks from now because those blokes ended up playing one game. So you've got to be careful with it. Those three rookies that I listed in that top five, which was actually a top three, I would be confident in double downgrading two this week.
00:42:07
Speaker
Mostly because looking into the crystal bowl, I'm not sure we're gonna get a whole heap of debutantes before the buy.
00:42:16
Speaker
Kyle, can James Robodom keep this up and have a breakout year in the mids? And is he an option as another sort of awkwardly priced kind of a harmsey style priced player that we could jump on at the moment with Robodom? Looking to have taken a fair few CBAs and he is looking like a really nice option as a player, but what do you think on Robodom?
00:42:38
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind it. I probably want to see this is someone that you got to jump on early. It's got to be this week if you're really keen on James Robodom. I think that is probably too inside for my liking. Swans are probably playing a little bit out of their skin at the moment. He's also fresh playing up against bodies that have been banged up for six or seven rounds prior to
Player Comparisons and Performance Analysis
00:43:02
Speaker
that.
00:43:02
Speaker
I like James Robodom, I think he's a good football player, but he's probably not the bloke that I want to be taking a risk on in fantasy at this point in the season.
00:43:23
Speaker
Oh, Duncan's the sexier pick, but Guthrie is probably the more likely to stay out on the park and average thereabouts the same, maybe a few points less. I would probably, for the name fact, just go Duncan. Yeah, and you know my answer's Duncan. I just love the way he goes about it. The thing about being worried about players that are injury prone is that
00:43:50
Speaker
If that's your mindset, you can't actually ever really bring them in because each week you wait, if you think you're right in that they are injury prone, each week that you wait, the chances are just increasing for them to get injured. So it's always a bit weird when people wait, I just want to see if he can stay fit for three weeks. Well, if he stayed fit for three weeks and he's an injury prone player, there's actually a greater chance that he's going to get injured while he's in your team.
00:44:16
Speaker
So I don't mind going early and bringing in guys like that. Also wants to know what to do with Zach Williams. We've answered that. That's just stay strong for the moment as gross as it has been. The franchise simply asks Daikos.
00:44:31
Speaker
What do we think? I want to see a bit more. Collingwood are clearly changing things up, trying to find their identity at the moment. It was a must-win game on the weekend and he got a 73. I think he had a bit of gastro. Look, he's not really screaming pick me at the moment. If he can put up a nice score with a nice roll this upcoming week against a little bit better opposition, then I'd like to see that.
00:44:56
Speaker
Stewart Ward, how many first round by players are too many considering right now they are the value buyers like Hall and Kelly etc. Also, how concerned should we be on Caleb Daniels role fluctuations? I'll take the Caleb question, you take the first one on how many first round by players are too many.
00:45:16
Speaker
How many first round by players are too many? As soon as you've got less than probably nineteen in another different by round I would say it's too many so whatever that works out to be just use the advice I gave earlier in the pod where you create your team for each by round and figure out what your team looks like and if you're not able to field a team or a respectable team in round twelve then you've got your answer.
00:45:42
Speaker
So, and the Caleb Daniels side of things, he was playing as a forward for, I think it was about three quarters, I think someone put out on the Twittersphere, the stats where he basically, you should have said, his stats were ridiculously low for three quarters, they were pretty gross. All of a sudden, they swing him more to be that free defender behind the ball.
00:46:02
Speaker
11 disposals, five score involvements in the last quarter as a defender and 45 AFL fantasy points in that last term. Just keeping behind the ball. He genuinely has been bevelled back and forth this year. So I'm hoping, Stuart, that how concerned we should be? We should be concerned because as a forward or a wingman or whatever else he plays, he can't score. He's shown that he can't do that. So
00:46:27
Speaker
As a defender, we know how awesome he can be. Let's just hope that he stays there. But I think Bevo's recent comments on, he had a press conference that was like, oh, you know, we'll figure out what we're doing with him. He's going back and forth. It doesn't sound promising, really. I'd be concerned as a non-owner, but as an owner, we just hope that he gets back in there. And he is cheap for non-owners too.
00:46:48
Speaker
Can't be too concerned. Michael Bellardi looking to get harms in for Golden this week and for my other trade. Should he go Brockman to Oeys or Berry to Poulter? Have other cash cows but want them to fatten up more. I wouldn't be going to harms from Golden. I think that's only a small jump, small step. I think he's doing that, he's just wondering about his other trade I think.
00:47:15
Speaker
Is other trade yeah Brockman to always or buried a polter I probably prefer Brockman to always just based on the fact that Brockman's not playing at the moment But if there is not named then I do like buried a polter more
00:47:32
Speaker
Paul Erickson, why do all the good pre-buy upgrade options have the round 12 buy? Isn't it ridiculous? I've been racking my brain
Tim Kelly's Fantasy Potential
00:47:41
Speaker
all week. Obviously I did end up landing on Aaron Hall with the round 12 buy anyway, but yeah, anybody that was worth looking at this week just didn't have a very good buy round.
00:47:51
Speaker
And a final question here from Dylan Dunlop, from Pod Pod Plus, Pod Squad Group here, he put it in early, so I'll chuck it in the main podcast. He's a massive Eagles fan, so he's trying to take his biased hat off. But is Tim Kelly worth a go? He's cheap at $696k, his last two weeks have been good. He's only had one bad score when we got slapped by Geelong, I say weeks, I'm also a West Coast fan.
00:48:14
Speaker
And they've got Adelaide at home and seems to be the main guy along with she'd so he's also happy to be part of the pod squad part of the Facebook group So thanks very much deal. What do you think on Tim Kelly Louie? Yes, Thursday. Thanks for signing up do
00:48:30
Speaker
Yeah, Tim Kelly is a really left field option and I was actually looking at it earlier today. I like it. 696K is very cheap for a guy that I'm fairly confident can average 105 at least in the West Coast system.
00:48:48
Speaker
The only concern I would have with Tim Kelly is that he's the main man in that mid field right now and thus he's going to be the first target for a tag so there may be some weeks where you see that he dishes you up a pretty average 70 to an 80 but
00:49:03
Speaker
At the same time, I think especially in that derby, we saw a 140, so he's definitely got the ceiling. He's a player that does feel most stat lines, very good kick of the footy, finds the footy in the midfield, marks, tackles, is able to hit the scoreboard. So, no, I do like Tim Kelly as a point of difference.
00:49:22
Speaker
The only thing with point of differences is that when they go well You come out smelling very rosy if it does go poorly unfortunately at 700 K That ends up being a little bit of a waste of money because only maybe 1% of the competition has him and and you're forced to use up another trade others don't
Wrap-up and Listener Engagement
00:49:43
Speaker
Yeah here's a player that can get on hot streaks too which I do like about jumping on someone for a few weeks and see how it goes but you do want to hold him for seasonal as well if you are getting him at this point so risky but don't mind it deal and Louie ticking it off as well by the sounds of things although he does do it with a bit of caution. Hey Louie can you just take off.
00:50:03
Speaker
this last bit of the pod and do the wrap up because my voice is literally going. But we are getting those iTunes ratings and reviews coming in on iTunes and we do appreciate those. So Louis, can you read out a few iTunes reviews and then wrap this up? Yeah, so I'm not sure if this is a stitch up to us, but first up, we've got huge anus. Thirsty for the pod pod. I did not know that was there. I didn't even read that.
00:50:31
Speaker
That's okay. He's rated at five stars. Thanks for that mate. I've got observable thirst for the pod, pod, pod. Love the content and advice. More Shawny Darcy talks. So I'll leave that one up to you, Darcy. Five stars from Kane Baker. Solid great insights from very smooth operators. That's very kind of you, Kane. And thirdly, we've got Mum's lasagna. Five stars.
00:50:56
Speaker
God tier, great all-round fantasy advice with some interesting takes from Doss, who never fails to make you laugh. Louie makes some great calls and Statesman is the old head that brings some common sense to the Pod Pod. Love it. Thank you very much, Mumzazania. Really appreciate your ratings, guys. Obviously, keep getting them in. You may be able to get a size 12 pair of Korea Savers, signed by yours truly, Dossie.
00:51:22
Speaker
All right, guys, thanks so much for listening. We'll hopefully next week be back in the same room, Louis. I did say that last week, but again, the second wave of the crookness hit us. We don't have the Rona though, so we're all clear of that, but we will hopefully see you in the same house next week, Louis, for a nice, crisp recording. Oh, wait, mate. Farewell.