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WCAD 3-44: AFCON Group Stage Review + Knockout Round Preview
84 Plays5 days ago
The guys celebrate the start of a World Cup year with an AFCON Group Stage recap. The favorites are all in place, but the Group Stage still provided its fair share of drama, from surprises like Tanzania and Sudan making the Last 16 to Gabon getting disbanded (no, really). Then, it's a knockout round preview, headlined by intriguing ties like South Africa-Cameroon and Algeria-DR Congo.
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Transcript
Introduction and World Cup Excitement
00:00:01
Speaker
It's 2026. Happy World Cup year. For those of you that celebrate, and if you're a listener of the World Cup After Dark podcast, you obviously celebrate. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik.
00:00:12
Speaker
We are going to be talking AFCON group stage, AFCON knockout round. But Amit, the calendar has flipped and we are like six months-ish away from an actual World Cup filling our screens and filling our days.
00:00:24
Speaker
Happy times. Delightful
Significance of the World Cup
00:00:27
Speaker
times. People are doing their ins and outs and bold predictions for 2026. And just just think about how big of a fixture this World Cup is going to be in our lives. I cannot wait. ah Good, bad, everything in between. We're going have some fun. It's a great year for soccer.
00:00:44
Speaker
And this AFCON is a delightful little window into why we ah why we're excited, too.
AFCON Group Stage Overview
00:00:51
Speaker
Discourse there will be, I think is is is the number one takeaway about the World Cup. ah There will be plenty of discourse. There will be plenty of time to get to that. And don't worry, there will be plenty of episodes to get to that as well. But as alluded to, we're talking AFCON today. We've got an entire group stage to at least recap, draw some storylines, and take some conclusions. We've got a knockout stage to to talk about. I mean, this AFCON has been...
00:01:15
Speaker
You don't want to call it disappointing because that's just mean. But I think the big takeaway that I think we we can come in here and say is that of the top kind of eight or so teams that we really dug into on our preview show, all eight of them went through and
AFCON's Chaotic Nature
00:01:31
Speaker
almost essentially in the order you would have predicted, the best four teams are all kind of looking like the best four teams. Maybe our order has changed a bit there.
00:01:41
Speaker
So in that sense, it was a bit of a ho-hum AFCON group stage. If such a thing can exist, again, we do have a government that literally just canceled their national team. So even ho-hum AFCON group stage still gives us AFCON moments.
00:01:55
Speaker
But as far as AFCON group stages are concerned, we've seen more dramatic. Yes. AFCON is a tournament we love because of the chaos and because of, well, because of the chaos, but yeah this has been in the top less chaotic. And I do think there's something to just the time in the calendar, the global cycle, the four-year calendar.
00:02:18
Speaker
And, you know, CAF has been trying to get away from this January AFCON for a long time. And I think you just start seeing the kind of ah downstream effect of all these top federations kind of being like, look, we want to win. We know how prestigious this is.
00:02:35
Speaker
But at the same time, like we're trying to kind of get there through in one piece.
Playing it Safe in AFCON
00:02:40
Speaker
We're playing this in Morocco. It's all felt just a little bit safe.
00:02:47
Speaker
Bubble wrap AFCON is the best way to put it. And then, you know, we'll gold throw the the pads off for the last few big games is kind of the direction we're heading. Now, for some of the teams, there was no bubble wrap, and that's where we got some fun, right? And that's what we're here to discuss. But that's kind of been my reading of it. And, you know, there's there's been good soccer. It's not that, like...
00:03:07
Speaker
It hasn't been that, but it hasn't been the full, like the full experience. I think even from the last AFCON and the ones before that, where you just kind of get madness early and often, it's kind of just felt like we all kind of know where we want to go and
Impact of World Cup Preparation
00:03:23
Speaker
we'll get there. And somehow the results have all lined up.
00:03:27
Speaker
Obviously there's some hindsight bias, but I don't think it's an accident is I think what you and I would both kind of get to perhaps. Yeah. Yeah. And so I think there's there's two interesting points in there. Right. So I think the first is, and and you kind of touched on it, where we're at in the cycle, if you will, of international football. Right.
00:03:45
Speaker
All of the best teams have major incentive to be firing on all cylinders. right because they are six months away from the test of all tests in the World Cup. And so there is incentive for all of these teams to have their ducks in a row, right at least the teams that are going to the World Cup. And so the Morocco's, Algeria's, Tunisia's, Egypt, South Africa, those teams are playing pretty well because for the last kind of year and a half, they've had to play pretty well, and they've played pretty well. And the two kind of question mark teams that we came into this sorted things out in the group stage in Nigeria and Cameroon. And we'll get to them in a bit. And they didn't kind of just completely fade away into oblivion. And that was where the drama
Anticipation for AFCON Knockouts
00:04:23
Speaker
maybe came from. So we've got that.
00:04:25
Speaker
Then I think the other big takeaway here is for all of its bubble wrap, ho humness that we've had so far, The best part of that is that the matchups that we're going to get that are coming down the pike are heavy hitters, heavyweight, and that is good. And I think that will be interesting.
00:04:41
Speaker
And that I think is probably the positives that we can take out of the group stage that we did see is all of the big names are here and all of the big names are going to duke it out for a major tournament title. And they're going to do it in knockout elimination football, which means you got to show what you have, right? You got play your cards.
00:04:59
Speaker
That's a great way to put it. And we we've learned things, bits and pieces about all those teams that we know about. But it's nice that we are going to like get the some of the best data we're going to get in these games.
00:05:13
Speaker
I'm with you. That is going to be really fun. As you just said eloquently, they have to show us. that That's what we're looking forward to. all right, so let's zip through the the groups that we've seen. We'll get to the knockout stage
Group A Performances
00:05:23
Speaker
in a bit. Let's start in Group A. Morocco, Amit, hosts, favorites, all of that stuff, threw on seven points. Mali threw on three points with three draws. That's what Mali do. Morocco were held 1-1 by Mali.
00:05:35
Speaker
Probably a slight knock on Morocco. That's also Molly's game plan. It's that Morocco's 19 game winning streak. Although that 19 game winning streak is great. I also don't know that they actually beat anybody in that. Like I looked at it today. I think their best win in that streak is like a 4-1 qualification, AFCON qualification win over Gabon or maybe like Tunisia friendly. So it's not like they were just beating the best teams in the world. but still winning 19 games a row is impressive. Zampia and Comoros didn't do a whole lot here. They drew nil-nil when they played each other, which isn't a result that's conducive to one of them going through in third.
00:06:10
Speaker
Comoros drew nil-nil with Mali. This was not a particularly exciting group. I don't think there's a ton of huge takeaways here. I'm willing to overlook Morocco getting mucked up one time by Mali in the group stage because those are the type of things that happen that don't actually have overarching effects on the tournament.
00:06:27
Speaker
Agreed. And to you to the overall point, we want Morocco to show us something. That's what we've been hoping for. They didn't have to. In that game against Mali, they kind of played well, got the lead, you know gave up a goal,
00:06:39
Speaker
didn't really crank the gears to show us like, let's go take it from Molly, which in itself is a statement, but I think kind of what you expected. They kind of knew they could get through on the top. They also haven't played Atra Hakimi yet, right? yeah He's been in the squad. He's on the bench. It definitely feels like they've been saving him for the moment and had that Molly game been an elimination game, right? I think you get 20 minutes of of Hakimi coming on and probably changing the complexion of that game down the stretch.
00:07:07
Speaker
Totally. And there is something to Morocco. Like they kind of are built better for the biggest matches to frustrate the top teams by playing against the ball. And here in AFCON against 80% of the teams, or even in just in Africa, right? They have to be a little bit more aggressive and turn the gears themselves, which they can do, but Hakimi is like the best guy. And so they're missing him. And so they're kind of even also, you know, a guy like ah their, their midfielder, Amrbach. What, When they're playing him, it's just not as conducive going forward. And I think they're just kind of figuring out that balance. We're going to see when they need to attack them, crank those gears.
00:07:44
Speaker
That's what I'm looking forward to. Molly, just kind of what they are. They're very good at bucking a game. They don't have enough quality to like take a game to a team, but they're tough out. That's kind of what we've said about them this whole time.
00:07:54
Speaker
We also have buried the lead here on Morocco, I mean, because the biggest storyline is that Ayubelkabi scored not one, but two different bicycle kick goals in this group stage, which sure, that's AFCON for you, right?
00:08:06
Speaker
They were both like insane worldies. So that yes, we did. We did bury the lead on that one. Dude's going to be competing for the Puskas against himself, right?
Egypt vs South Africa
00:08:15
Speaker
It's going to be, it's going to be, which one of my goals is going would be the Puskas. Group B, I mean, Egypt threw on seven, South Africa threw on six. When they played each other, it was a one-nil win for Egypt. It was not a fun game. It was the game Egypt wanted to play.
00:08:30
Speaker
They finished the game with 10 men. They scored a Mosala penalty. This is you you open the the Egypt results textbook and right under nil-nil knockout round penalty shootout with help of laser pointers. Number two is one nil win with perhaps dodgy penalty and 10 men at the end of the game, right? It's the Egypt textbook.
00:08:48
Speaker
They were, they are what they are. And it's both good credit to them. Second half defending. They, they play that way. It's dicey. They held on. And we're going to talk more about South Africa in general. They,
00:09:02
Speaker
They got the ball in dangerous positions a lot, but there's kind of just on, I guess it was, i this was very on the line between unlucky and not enough. I don't know how you, how you saw it. I, you expect South Africa for 45 minutes against 10 men.
00:09:17
Speaker
They should get something right. But it's not like they didn't try. I don't know how you parse. Yeah, I think it was just a one of those days where you get the 45 minutes and sometimes you score and sometimes you don't. My big takeaway from South Africa in this tournament, especially looking towards the World Cup, they are must-watch television, man. yeah They are so dangerous going forward and just not really capable of locking things up in a midfield or in the backlight. They are the anti-anti-soccer. Right? Like we talk about the low of event South Africa or high event.
00:09:47
Speaker
They want as many events in this game as possible because they think they can take advantage of it and make it happen. They're going to be fun at the World Cup. They're going to be fun in this knockout stage. They they are always, always, always a must watch
Angola and Zimbabwe's Exit
00:09:59
Speaker
team.
00:09:59
Speaker
The two teams going out in this group were Angola and Zimbabwe. They also played a 1-1 draw. Takeaway looking towards the World Cup here, Amit, when we're looking at third place teams, drawing the the two bottom teams of the group, somebody's got to win that game because when they draw, it's going to be really hard to get out of the group.
00:10:16
Speaker
Yeah, that's kind of slight on these two teams. And i'm sure they know that. Like, they're not trying to draw the game. But we should see at the World Cup specifically managers be really, really aggressive with their with their changes and chasing the lead. That perhaps neither Angola nor Zimbabwe had enough tools in the box to go do it, right?
00:10:37
Speaker
Then furthermore in Angola, right? They kind of could never get the goals they needed this whole time. Yeah. So then they go into the last day. They know that they probably need something against a rotated Egypt that are already through. They draw nil nil, which kept them in the fight. They huff, they puff, they they hit the bar, they missed a breakaway. But their overall level, I think, just kind of was what it was.
00:11:00
Speaker
Egypt were kind of going through the motions. They they didn't like play badly, right? The the the rotated team was had some chances. But if you can't if you can't get one in 90 versus a B team, like you're not. you don't You don't get to go to the next round. Egypt were overall, you know we talked about South Africa.
00:11:18
Speaker
I just, I'm not that moved by them. I think yeah Omar Marmush is another player. It's at Man City that we kind of, you know, didn't touch on as much in our preview podcast. I think he gives gives them a little bit more dynamism on both wings, but the overall game model is just the same. And they did exactly that for three games. Yeah. And I think Egypt's biggest problem is that Egypt's biggest problem is there is a certain level to where they can pull their shtick off, right? It's like, ah, we got El Shanaoui back there making saves. Like, oh, you're scared. South Africa is probably like the top level of team that Egypt can pull that off and get away with it more often than not.
00:11:55
Speaker
And just the higher the level goes, the less likely Egypt are going to be able to get through doing that. like they And they don't have a plan B. They don't have a second answer. And so it's like, yeah, okay, cool. I just feel like at some point in this AFCON, you're going to run into somebody that's better than you.
00:12:12
Speaker
And they're probably going to make you pay for it. And that's my takeaway. On the South Africa tournament, their last game against Zimbabwe, South Africa 3, Zimbabwe 2. That was delightful. Just delightful South African stuff. Zimbabwe with the Colosso. Very, very dumb goals to to get it all the way. South Africa got a a suspect handball. They escaped. Yeah, just theyre delightful.
00:12:35
Speaker
So think I really should have kind of lost this game, but it was, you know, the goals were all deflections, bounces. It was fun. And that's why we, as you said, must watch television it South Africa. They were up one goal in the 72nd minute.
00:12:48
Speaker
Zimbabwe's just running in behind. Sure. Sure. Because why would we, you know, shut up shop? We can't do that. Great. And the the handball situation was particularly hilarious as well. That was that was dicey, right? Probably not a situation you want to continually put yourself in. Right. Like, let's just try and not do that again in the future. In group C, I mean, Nigeria through on nine points. We'll touch on them in a second. Tunisia on four. Tanzania on two and they get through.
00:13:15
Speaker
We'll touch on Tanzania a bit, but Nigeria is the storyline
Nigeria's Inconsistency
00:13:18
Speaker
here. They are through on nine points and they are half an hour away, I mean, from being through on nine points and looking really good in doing it.
00:13:26
Speaker
They got 3-0 up on Tunisia and it looked like they were going to cruise against a win against a team that is going to the World Cup. And then the Nigerian is set in and Tunisia got back in the game, got the 3-2 and had a free header to make it 3-3 that they didn't take advantage of.
00:13:41
Speaker
Are you trusting Nigeria? No, because they did that. but but But this was perhaps the best three-match stretch we've seen from Nigeria since the last AFCON, which has been two years. And the fact that they're so inconsistent is what maddens us.
00:13:59
Speaker
But the attacking talent this year, Games, was really firing. And I was joking with you, right? If Games were 70 minutes, they would be one of the best teams in the world. Because they... they're we know their defense is leaky. We know they struggle to focus for 90 minutes and they just kind of make mistakes that are baffling because their defensive personnel isn't even that bad. Maybe goalkeeping is bad, but when they get,
00:14:26
Speaker
Stanley in the Wally, man. He's not good. ah think And I don't know if like everybody else behind him is just that bad, but like, dude, sometimes you can just stay on your line. Like you don't have to come try and claim everything. Continue. Sorry. The point is just, you know, when you get Lookman, Chikwazy, Awesome Man running at you, and even when you're backed up, they just...
00:14:50
Speaker
are very, very good attackers that don't need a lot of life or support behind them. And they just kill you in space. So really good built team to play international soccer. It's just, they, if they could just mentally put it together, which again, how do you, how do you value 30 bad minutes out of a hundred 270? Hmm.
00:15:15
Speaker
o it's like you roll a die. And so often we've seen it come bad for Nigeria. And I think it'll be hard for them to not turn in another 30 bad minutes in knockouts when you can't really do that. But, you know, maybe they'll have enough padding to and spot themselves two goals here in the next four matches. So they're, they're still a contender. The talent just makes them contender, but they also are capable of throwing anything.
00:15:40
Speaker
We will see. him Victor Osheman looked good, which he has yet to do at an AFCON. I think that's a ah positive sign going forward for them. Tunisia, it feels like Tunisia are what they think they are, right? Like, I'm not buying it. I'm not buying them at the World Cup. I'm not really buying them here.
00:15:57
Speaker
i did They just, we know what they are. Yeah, and because of that, I'm almost going to say stock down on Tunisia generally. like yeah a team we don't see a high ceiling, and I'm even i'm even at the point where like I think they're a little worse than Egypt, um which you know two similar teams, it's close, but they were not impressive here.
00:16:17
Speaker
that's It's going to be tough. we're going to see We'll talk about them in the next knockout round, but yeah, a little bit neutral to down on them. Tanzania are probably the one of the two surprise teams making it through to the round of 16. Again, the the way that this tournament was formatted, somebody was going to get through to the round of 16 as a third place team that was probably going to be at least a bit of surprise. This came down to two points and a one goal loss to Nigeria, which proved to be enough. Not exactly a great ah commentary on the quality of this AFCON, but hey, give credit to Tanzania. It's the first time they've made an AFCON knockout round.
00:16:49
Speaker
This came down, Amit, to Tanzania being in Group C and Angola being in Group B and Tanzania having the answer key. right They knew what they needed to do to get into the top four third-place spots, and they did it. They got a nil-nil draw. It pays to go second against a remarkably unmotivated Tunisia team when you know a draw is enough to go through.
00:17:12
Speaker
Yeah, it's... it's it's in an interesting quirk of the third place table that it kind of helps the teams going second. Is there a way to so solve this or is it just kind of, if you're going first, you've got to, you've got to have a better judge of the cut line, right? Like, yeah, it's that. And like, it's just, that's just the luck of the draw, right? Like that's right it's a random draw to, to, to see who gets into what group. We're obviously not going to get into a scenario where we're playing, you know, 17 games at the same time. Like that's just not feasible. And,
00:17:42
Speaker
In that sense, I think both of us agree, like, Tanzania were were not really, like, impressive. That Tanzania-Tunisia game just was... was And not a lot happened. Tunisia was already rotated. They were already through. They were barely trying. And, you know, Tanzania equalized out of really nothing. Yep. And then for 50 minutes, like they both kind of sat on it And, you know, both of us, I think, don't like the anti-football part of it. But in a sense, they had earned that right. it's it's It's an interesting discussion. I think at the World Cup, it will be livelier when things like that happen.
00:18:19
Speaker
Yeah, I also think there's more teams involved at the World
Tanzania's Surprise Advancement
00:18:22
Speaker
Cup. and you have like i I don't think it's as likely that somebody's going to be able to sneak through on two points in a third-place spot at the World Cup. This was just the way that this tournament happened to break out. Groups A and B both provided the worst third-place teams. There were results in the other games that already guaranteed three points there. I think this was just kind of a quirk of it. And again, look, I'm not so high and mighty to sit here and say, oh, Tanzan. This is Tanzania. Tanzania should do whatever they can do to get to a knockout round. like I'm not criticizing them at all for that. And they got to the point where, all right, we've equalized. The penalty was probably pretty tough to go against us anyway. Look, grind it out, see what you can do. And they did. And they took advantage of of Tunisia not being motivated. i don't think they're going to do much of the knockout round, but it's a fantastic story that they've gotten there. 100%.
00:19:06
Speaker
hundred percent Group D, I'm at Senegal and DR Congo top it on seven with Senegal winning the group. Benin on three points going through in third. Botswana ate three L's and that was it. I appreciate that way that you put it in the run now because that's exactly what Botswana did. Some good games here between the top three teams.
00:19:25
Speaker
DR Congo impressed. They got a grimy one nil on day one against Benin. They survived one one against Senegal. Those teams have played some really good games in recent memory. DR Congo and Senegal. Senegal got two extra goals on match day three over Benin. um That got them the difference for first. I think that's going to be pretty critical here down the stretch.
00:19:42
Speaker
Benin have been solid when they're trying. Like this was a tough draw for them. They did what they had to do and beat Botswana and that proved to be enough. Senegal and DR Congo are are two good teams. Yeah. The Benin three zero loss to Senegal on day three was not very flattering to them, but I think they had kind of...
00:20:00
Speaker
they need they kind of theyd They'd already gone through. it was' not That's why you know you said, when trying, I'm going to give them some grace on that one. But um yeah, Senegal-Dior Congo was great. And I think it's a great ah matchup because Senegal really you know get the gears running, get the machine running, really good effort. But Dior Congo are just enough on the break. So a great cat and mouse type of game. And that's kind of what this was. And I think...
00:20:25
Speaker
If it was a knockout match or yeah like we saw when desperation came, it would have been a great ending. I think Senegal after equalizing at one, one kind of was like, Hey, we don't need to burn gas in the tank to, to put a, you know, an extra shift in 20. But the first half of this game was a really good effort from Senegal. And I think maybe the best half I've seen without scoring from anyone, just in terms of the gears, I was impressed by Senegal. But to that point,
00:20:50
Speaker
as you said, I think both of us have to give DR Congo a lot of credit. And this has just been an interesting tournament for them again, with that world cup playoff match coming in March. And I think they're just kind of, you know, it's not even their best squad. There's kind of running out there and giving me a good effort. This is a good team. These are good players. I'm impressed by them.
00:21:10
Speaker
I don't think they're super incentivized to like try really hard and especially in some extra time matches, but yeah, It definitely reinforces the belief that they are the favorites and that's a team that you don't want to see in the World
Senegal and DR Congo Progress
00:21:24
Speaker
Cup. That group is going to be really tough that we've talked about. yeah So um full full credit to them. And then, you know, did the job as well. 1-0 against Benin, which is a tough game. Grimy, as you said.
00:21:38
Speaker
Impressed. Yeah, and I think right the DR Congo thing is like, okay, maybe they're not going to put it in in fifth gear whatever, but the further you get along in this tournament, because you become incentivized. It's just like, hey, we should just go for this because this is a major tournament and that's really significant. So ah we'll we'll see how that goes. Group E, I meant...
00:21:55
Speaker
Algeria topped this group on nine. Burkina Faso on six. Sudan on three. Nice and neat this group went. Everybody kind of beat who we thought they were going to beat, except Sudan and beat Equatorial Guinea. And that means Sudan are going to the AFCON knockout round, which is a pretty good achievement for them.
00:22:10
Speaker
um They beat Equatorial Guinea one nil on an own goal. Just enough. Again, very Tanzania-esque in that I'm not really going knock Sudan for how they chose to do it. They did it. This group, I don't know that we learned a whole lot here. I think our priors were pretty correct. It's just Sudan got an own goal to beat Equatorial Guinea, and that's not really where our priors were focused anyway.
00:22:31
Speaker
Correct. I enjoyed watching Algeria play attacking soccer. Now, i'm in hindsight, the group wasn't great. Burkina Faso were solid, so I don't want to give them too much credit. But I thought they did things with the ball that put them in that class above Tunisia and Egypt. Are they as close as Morocco? I don't know yet.
00:22:54
Speaker
Yeah, we haven't seen Algeria be super attack, even in matchups like this. Like they kind of didn't get it into gear in World Cup qualifying. And here they did. Right. They beat Sudan three nil. They put three past Equatorial Guinea in and just about half an hour in that game. They beat a good Burkina Faso team with a good performance.
00:23:11
Speaker
I feel good about their performances. I feel good with where they're at. I think they're still a level below the top teams on Africa, but I think they're probably a level above the teams that are kind of in that tier that we maybe thought they were in, which you talked about on the preview show.
00:23:25
Speaker
We'll see how the ah the the Algeria stock goes because it's ah it's a tough little quadrant for them in the round of 16, which we're coming on. But yeah, this otherwise, this group was so-so. Like you said, sudan are Sudan are fine. They're actually not bad, but they didn't do anything. They just kind of stumbled backwards. suppose. bottom tier African teams go Sudan are organized. yeah Right. And that can get you a long way. We saw it in world cup qualifying. They hung around a lot longer than you would have expected in world cup qualifying.
00:23:55
Speaker
Look, there's no quality. They're not going to play you off the pitch. They really can't even do much on set pieces, but they're organized enough to make your life hard. And in a knockout round one off game, that could do something. It's just asking that to, you know,
00:24:09
Speaker
be repeatedly done down the stretch is probably not what's going to happen. But let's see. They gave Senegal problems when they when they played in World Cup qualifying. They can give them problems here in the knockout round. Group F, of it the last group we talked about. Ivory Coast top it on seven. Cameroon also on seven. Mozambique threw on three at the expense of Gabon. We'll touch on that in a minute. Ivory Coast, Cameroon was 1-1. Maybe a bit of a disappointing result for Ivory Coast. Their clean sheet streak finally snapped.
00:24:37
Speaker
But they got first place with a ridiculous comeback on match day three. Lot of late drama there. Cameroon, for a team that came in with lots of Federation turmoil, we didn't know which team was going to show up. We didn't know. Well, we did know who was going to manage it. um They look okay here. They passed the first test.
00:24:55
Speaker
Yeah, the squad isn't very good in terms of their pool and relative, I think, to the other heavy hitters, right? Outside of Mbwemo and Baleba, these are more rotational pieces. But it's worked for them. They're playing really hard. They're playing well together. They're
Cameroon's Resilience Despite Turmoil
00:25:14
Speaker
organized. you know Their defense is always going to be a problem, and they gave a lot of space to Ivory Coast, but they defended well in that game. Again, that goal was a...
00:25:23
Speaker
the goal to lead against Ivory Coast was a big deflection, but they were not outclassed. And I think that's just a pleasant surprise. Again, they missed the World Cup. So where it's it's a bit late for for nice things, but this was a good bounce back group stage. And I think they've just, for all the chaos at Cameroon, we're both a bit shocked that they were just very solid here in three games.
00:25:45
Speaker
Yep, that they scored in the first 10 minutes against Gabon and sought out, that they put in a good effort against Ivory Coast, and that they saw Mozambique coming from behind. Like, that's a good, solid group stage. Where this group got interesting was in that fight for third, where Gabon certainly would have been back to do it. This came down ammit to a 3-2 Mozambique win over Gabon on match day two.
00:26:06
Speaker
Good, good stuff here. Not from the Gabon set piece defending, though. Good AFCON stuff, though. Bad giveaways, penalty fouls. they They were down. They pegged it back. They couldn't get it done at the end.
00:26:17
Speaker
This game was delightful. For an AFCON group stage that didn't give us a ton of delightful games, Gabon 2, Mozambique 3 was delightful. Yeah, this was easily the best game. Super fun. And, you know, look, when you're the bad team, you need some opportunistic goals, right? yeah But ah it's it's Cabone isn't like the biggest scalp we could have hoped for, but it was enough of a ah like they really stumbled and floundered and Mozambique were awesome in this one. um And then in the end, Gabon kind of petered out, right? Down one in the last few, didn't get anything great. So credit to Vosavik, right? this is This is the game, the story of of the group stage.
00:26:56
Speaker
And then it got interesting on the last match day when Gabon were already eliminated. They played Ivory Coast who were looking to seal up first place in the group. And after having sent Abameyang and Bruno Calamanga home not playing, Gabon co-opped two goals in this game.
00:27:12
Speaker
And then they, Ivory Coast, battled back. And that is a big result for them. And it's a big result for the knockout stage. How did they blow this? How did they blow this? They...
00:27:25
Speaker
They let Wolf Saha cook is what happened, right? Yeah. Yeah. it was This was disappointing. So you can't, you you can't quit and then play well and then re quit. That's the, that's, that's the issue with Cabone, right? Like that's perhaps that like, if they had, so, so we know what happens, right? Cabone fires, the manager fires, the player, you could do that disbands the team. The Gabon, yeah, to to to put this into context, the Gabon national government comes out and says, our national team doesn't exist anymore. We've disbanded them. The coaching staff, they don't have jobs. Pierre-Hemmer Gabal-Mian is not allowed to be called back in. Bruno Akilemanga, who has put in so many shifts for this national team, also not allowed to come back in. To be fair, these are things you cannot do. like it's Not allowed. This is blatant government interference in the national team. This is something that is almost assuredly going to end in some sort of FIFA suspension. And this is also Gabon saying, World Cup qualifiers aren't for like three years. We're fine. We'll be back. Hilarious, hilarious, very AFCON way to go out.
00:28:27
Speaker
The quote from the Gabon government was absolute disgrace performance. And I think that's why I come back to this game. It was one thing to lose to Mozambique for sure, right? Like maybe everyone was getting fired anyway for Gabon.
00:28:39
Speaker
But if they had just lost like one zeroro to Ivory Coast, played well... You know, didn't have it. I think I'm not sure it would have been such like the the absolute disgrace and really like scorching the earth behind him. But the fact that they lost this game in stoppage time with five Ivory Coast dudes wide open in the box, you know, the defense completely collapses.
00:29:00
Speaker
Good theater for Gabon's implosion, right? That's the best word for it. Yeah. What are we making of of Ivory Coast after this group stage, right? Okay, so their clean sheet streak gets
Ivory Coast's Defensive Concerns
00:29:11
Speaker
snapped. They don't look great against Gabon, battle back. Have you changed your priors at all in them?
00:29:17
Speaker
Yeah, i'm I'm worried about the striker position specifically. You know, Sebastian Helaire won them the last AFCON. He's not here. They're rotating through some guys that are, you know, Gassand is kind of a big five OK striker. Isn't great. Scored a big goal in the comeback um against Gabon. Wilfred Zaha is, you know, a player doing bits at this stage in his career and happy to have him here doing bits in this AFCON. um So there's a bit of that.
00:29:45
Speaker
I'm not sure I trust their attack in this AFCON. I do think at the World Cup, there will be kind of a more fully formed front line. And these reps are good. And I really like Ahmad.
00:29:58
Speaker
I just, the defense also was always going to be unsustainable. I think overall coming into this tournament, I was like, this is a really, really tough team. They're in the group of death. If we have one at the world cup, I think they're one of the toughest outs.
00:30:12
Speaker
And now I'm kind of like, look, they're, they're a good African team. They're one of the best, but I'm a little concerned about their top end viability. Hmm. Is that, that's nitpicking perhaps. And I, and some of it's a little biased. They could still win this thing, but I'm just, I like some of the other teams I've seen a little more.
00:30:31
Speaker
And I think another thing with them, and we saw it here in this group stage, the whole don't concede goals thing, you just at some point, that's going to stop, right? You can't consistently count on not conceding goals. We've seen it time and time again in international football. Brazil had that super long streak where they just didn't concede consistently.
00:30:52
Speaker
They got to the World Cup, and next thing you know, you're conceding. And when you you have to have a response for that. You have to be able to score because it is highly unlikely that you're going to go to such a high-level tournament like in AFCON, like the World Cup, and you're going be able to pull off your, well, if we just simply don't let the other team score, we're going to be successful routine.
00:31:11
Speaker
And look, that's what happened. They've let the other team score. They're looking a little shaky. We'll see what happens in the knockout round. So we kind of need to see, all right, what is the Ivory Coast plan B? And I don't know that we've gotten a super great answer on that.
00:31:23
Speaker
I agree. Their depth is good. They can bring on a lot of attacking players. Can they chase that result in a knockout game? That's the question we want to see. As you said, i think if they're not going to give up zero goals in four matches. They just aren't. So we're going to find out.
00:31:38
Speaker
Let's pivot now a bit and talk a bit about the knockout stage. As we said, as we alluded to, all of the good teams going through means that we have a heavy, heavyweight knockout stage here at
Exciting Knockout Stage Prospects
00:31:50
Speaker
AFCON. It's broken out, I think, into some very interesting quadrants, right? So of the four semifinalists, I think we're going to get a couple of very interesting quadrants. And I think we have a couple of quadrants with Very heavy favorites. And we have a couple of of wide open quadrants with with a lot of teams. So let's start at the very top of the bracket where we've got Mali, Tunisia, Senegal, Sudan.
00:32:11
Speaker
This is set up well for Senegal. They are very clearly the best of those four teams. They were your favorites coming into this tournament. I imagine they are still your favorites despite that draw to DR Congo.
00:32:22
Speaker
Mali, Tunisia, a bit, is two teams that are going to try to do the same game against each other and not score. Yeah, this is set up well. And specifically, either Mali or Tunisia, I think Senegal should handle. And that's why generally just on the bracket, right? You're expecting them to get to the semifinals.
00:32:43
Speaker
Easy quadrant, relatively, right? Not 100% set, but that's that's one. Mali-Tunesia, as you said, I don't think these teams, like, they want to score. Like, who... It takes... You have to put players forward to score. yeah This is just going to be a grimy, grimy game. Like, yeah, said pieces, bounces. It's going to be kind of ugly. I mean, it's going to be fun in a way, right? Because someone's going to have a chance, but it's kind of a mid-off.
00:33:12
Speaker
Yeah, and and we we talked a bit about Sudan. They gave Senegal problems in in World Cup qualifying. They have, like, we know what the recipe is to give them problems. It's just really hard to ask a team to do that against a team like Senegal's level here.
00:33:25
Speaker
And Senegal's kind of going to get the same game twice. It's just maybe probably going to be leveled up in the second one, right? Yeah, I i think... well backline break it down yeah Mali poses a little bit more of a challenge to the Senegal midfield. Tunisia is 100% bunkering.
00:33:43
Speaker
like As you said, like full bunker. Sudan can run on the counter. They'll hit long balls. yeah the They just played that against DRC, and the issue is doing something with those right long balls. They hit the ball long and then it's like, oh no, we got to do more with it now.
00:33:59
Speaker
Yeah. And they they can't really string together that second pass is, is you know the bar. So we'll see again. and Can anyone defend for 90 minutes, 120 minutes, make something happen? Sure. But Senegal have that gear in them.
00:34:13
Speaker
We'd be very shocked, right? if the If this isn't them coming out. I don't know if you want to handicap Mali Tunisia. i i I see this one is very likely to go to Penn's. Yeah, that feels likely. It also feels like set PC, right? Maybe 60, 70th minute set PC, see it out for a 1-0 win. I think that could happen here. I lean Mali. I just am not buying the Tunisia stuff. I just don't think they're very good.
00:34:39
Speaker
If Mali's up one, I trust them to see it out. If Tunisia's up one, I do not trust them to see it out. So I think i think I'll go with you there. Slight edge to Mali. Second quadrant, we have Egypt facing Benin, Ivory Coast facing Burkina Faso. We didn't talk a ton about Burkina Faso. They played pretty much to the level that we would expect of them as a third or fourth year African team in the group stage. There's an opportunity here for Benin to pull an upset against Egypt. we We haven't really been buying Egypt so far.
00:35:09
Speaker
Penalties could be on the cards, as is always the case in an Egyptian knockout round match. Ivory Coast set up well here, Amit, to play their style of game and maybe get away with it. I think so. Egypt Benin is a great game yeah in terms of the whole round of 16, just in terms of, I think Benin sneaky underrated, as you said, Egypt should have more attacking talent on the field, but i'm not sure it'll manifest itself. This could be, this could be ugly um in terms of Ivory Coast.
00:35:41
Speaker
I struggle to see even a best form of Egypt getting two goals on them. Now, can that be a one-one penalties? could If Ivory Coast don't score, could Egypt drag them?
00:35:52
Speaker
Yes. I struggle to see Benin scoring one on Ivory Coast outside of a deflection. So I do think it is set up well. But i so you know comparatively, i think Senegal has it.
00:36:03
Speaker
slightly easier. Like you don't want to see Sala in a knockout game. If you're Ivory Coast, you're going have to shift your whole game plan around him. You know, he's certainly, I think, motivated. That's one one thing going for Egypt.
00:36:16
Speaker
Burkina Faso also significantly better than Sudan, right? As far as the first game. Yeah, that's that is very fair. They can play challenge being being positive there. Like, I don't think I'm backing Burkina Faso, but I'd be significantly more fearful of them than I am of Sudan.
00:36:30
Speaker
That's a good point. That's a good point. This is going to be interesting. I'm really excited for Egypt Benin. I think there's a chance Egypt could get got, um as we've said now multiple times. it's It's going to be fun to see if Egypt can dig in the bag and find some ways to get solid and dangerous positions. What they're doing is playing very vertically and having him you know stretch the field up.
00:36:52
Speaker
and run and they're kind of not bunkering as much as you think, but in a knockout game, that's, that's, that's just so dicey to play that way. So if it's a set defense, can they give Salah any help? Well, the same question we've been asking for years, but that's what you're going to see on the field. Like, can they combine, can they get him loose in the box on his left foot? It's a fun little chess match. When Egypt play, it's a chess match you've seen. It might not be the most interesting, but Benina are good foil.
00:37:19
Speaker
The third quadrant, Amit, gives us a very, very good round of 16 game in South Africa and
South Africa vs Cameroon Matchup
00:37:24
Speaker
Cameroon. And it gives us a game that we saw twice in World Cup qualifying in Morocco, Tanzania. Both times we saw a World Cup qualifying 2-0 win for Morocco. Any reason to expect it to be anything different here in the round of 16?
00:37:36
Speaker
It's there's zero chance, right? Right. Like they don't even have to play Hakimi for this one. How is Tanzania going to disrupt Morocco? Yeah, they're not. They're not. seen that South the African Cameroon. On the other hand, though, should be very, very fun amid because We've got the chaoticness of South Africa, which is just their natural state. And Cameroon, who have been put into a chaotic state by everything happened. There are lots of attacking players. There are not very many defensive players.
00:38:03
Speaker
This has all the makings of a goal fest. And probably, i think for my money, is the round of 16 game I most do not want to miss. I was going to say that myself. I agree with you.
00:38:15
Speaker
This could be three, two, right? You'd be disappointed to walk into this one with less than four goal ah out of this one with less than four goals, right? We'd like these teams can't defend or they'll try, but yeah. So going to be really, really fun. I think the key here is South Africa. They really try to win the ball high up the field. That is their, their engine. They, they play the high line. It does them in, but like that high line of confrontation is really good.
00:38:40
Speaker
And Cameroon are good enough to, to like get in Bwemo the other way in space. ah So I think both of these teams are trying to get to three goals. That's what makes it good. You just going to have to tune in. Like it's going to be yeah back and forth through 90. Yeah.
00:38:55
Speaker
through ninety There's no, these teams can't play the game state where they shut it down and play boring ball. It just sets up so well. It can't happen. Like it's just not, it's not possible for either of these teams to play that style and it's not conducive and it's not beneficial to them. So that's what makes this game so good. Feels like it could be a big Ron Williams moment. He was very good at the last AFCON.
00:39:15
Speaker
He can make the difference in a game like this, right? You give up the chances, but your goalkeeper bails you out every so often. We could see it. That's what you need to make the style work, right? So yeah spot on there.
00:39:27
Speaker
Last quadrant gives us another really good game, I think, in Algeria and DR Congo. And then we've got Nigeria, Mozambique. Let's start with Algeria, DR Congo. This feels like it's going to be our first test of, okay, are Algeria actually at that higher level?
00:39:42
Speaker
Because if they are, they probably can see off DR Congo. If they're not, they're going to get physicaled into a grimy, slimy game that they probably don't want to play. Agree. This is a really fascinating game.
00:39:56
Speaker
I'm not sure how it's going to DR Congo have shown that they are generally good at getting you into their game, and that is bad for Algeria. For Algeria, it's all about control, right?
00:40:07
Speaker
Can we lock you into your half? Can we get into our patterns? Can we pin your fullbacks? Can we get overloads? Can you guard Mahrez and Ait Nori one-on-one? Or if you're doubling them, can we beat you with crosses?
00:40:20
Speaker
The issue is, like... the DR Congo center backs are going to have a physical advantage here. And then if Algeria are frustrated, right? They, they come in you, they come in you, nothing happens.
00:40:31
Speaker
Dear Congo has a physicality advantage the other way on the counter, right? So control game for Algeria. And I'm really fascinated to see where it tilts. um If Algeria kind of work their patterns, i'm going to be very impressed. And definitely if they go up one, I do also think them having to defend against a physical team is a challenge.
00:40:49
Speaker
So I kind of, as much as I love Algeria and I'm really excited to watch them cook, I think Dior Congo is in a really good spot here. this is This is a good matchup for them to kind of scalp a ah big name.
00:40:59
Speaker
um So I'm excited. probably the second most interesting round of 16 game for me behind that South Africa Cameroon game we just talked about. All right, Nigeria, Mozambique, it's a mismatch on paper, but it's also Nigeria, right?
Nigeria vs Mozambique Analysis
00:41:14
Speaker
And Mozambique kind of got that energy, right? if you did it against Gabon, right? Like there is a tactics-free analysis where it's like, Make the game weird, right? It's Nigeria. Like, even if you give up a goal, like, just kind of hang around and ask questions. yeah Yes. Like, do you need some bounces? Sure. But if you ask enough questions, Nigeria will give you some answers. Yeah. and they'll probably be to your liking it's it's there right i think the the big team small team matchups that we have here there's probably three of them right senegal sudan morocco tanzania nigeria mozambique nigeria is absolutely the one of those three teams that i am least confident in seeing it out without any sort of drama yes yes um
00:42:00
Speaker
No lead is safe too. Like if you're in Nigeria, you don't, you don't want to be up to, you want to, you want to be up one and locked in. No, that's not true, but we'll see. It's ah I do think there's a, you know, up one in the last 10 minutes as much Watt stuff for Nigeria.
00:42:15
Speaker
Absolutely, for sure. Projecting this forward, if Nigeria do get past Mozambique, very, very interesting and quarterfinal for them, regardless of who it's against, whether it's DR Congo or Algeria. Both pose very different questions. We just saw Nigeria-DR Congo, obviously, at the the African World Cup playoff.
00:42:34
Speaker
But that Nigeria-Algeria match would also be fascinating. Would be great to see you know Algeria's really nice, slick patterns against the leaky Nigeria defense. But then talk about can you defend physicality? Nigeria is the the best in the you know in in the confederation. So this is a great quadrant. This is going to be fun. And I'm almost tempted to say...
00:42:57
Speaker
Well, these teams just on boundund and on the numbers are going to be the least favored right to to win the whole thing. but yeah if you you're going to be seasoned and battle tested, perhaps that is you know whoever gets out of here might be playing some of the best stuff. It's going to ask a lot of these teams. So I think...
00:43:15
Speaker
three can't miss games out of all, ah out of this quadrant. If there is a team outside of the, you know, kind of top four, if you will, of Senegal, Morocco, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria, who could spoil this and make a semifinal, make a final, who do you think it is?
00:43:32
Speaker
I want it to be Algeria so much because I you know i just i really like this this team, what I've seen. But those two matchups are really hard. yeah like It's just going to be tough to do that twice.
00:43:43
Speaker
um you know I think the Egypt-Benim winner has a chance against a vulnerable is the best word to put it. Ivory Coast. I'm not saying bad. They're still a favorite, vulnerable.
00:43:55
Speaker
And perhaps if you really want wanted value in that kind of sense, Benin is sneaky, right? But, yeah you know, give Egypt a shout. um And then if you eat you don't like Algeria, right, maybe you like DR Congo. I mean, it's it's a weird one for this team with this context.
00:44:12
Speaker
But as you said earlier, you get every round and they're just, they're a tough team to to beat over 120 Yeah, for sure. I think I can see a scenario where South Africa or Cameroon gives Morocco trouble in a quarterfinal, right? If you're going to use vulnerable about Ivory Coast, I think you also have to use it against Morocco, right?
00:44:33
Speaker
Yeah, and I think, look, we've seen it before at the AFCON, right? Chaos can breed competence. like It doesn't feel like it should, but it can. And maybe that's Cameroon this time around, that all of this swirling around ahead of them, they're just like, oh, we're just going to go play. And they beat South Africa and they they beat Morocco. I don't think Cameroon have what it takes to actually win four games on the trot and win the whole thing, but I think they can take out a heavy favorite in in Morocco.
00:44:59
Speaker
So much of this high-level stuff, we live for the tactics. We live for who's locked in. And AFCON specifically is kind of a, well, who wants it the most and who is who is locked in for four matches?
00:45:13
Speaker
yep That could be a... To your point, right? You never know where that comes from. Expect someone to to shock the semifinalists, right? There's no way we get all four favorites. That's... Like, I hope... I hope...
00:45:27
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. I think the way this AFCON is going, maybe we do. yeah And then we get super heavyweight semifinal matchups and and we can be thankful for that. But right, if if if the overall thesis of this podcast is generally that vibes matter, AFCON is like what proves that
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:45:44
Speaker
thesis, right? This is a tournament that absolutely shows that vibes matter, but that vibes can also shift and change and and things can get weird. So it's fun. I'm looking forward to this knockout round. I think it's going really good. It all kicks off on on Saturday. There are two games each day, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
00:46:00
Speaker
and and I will be back maybe after the round of 16 or maybe only after the quarterfinals. We'll see how our schedule works out and you'll know when there's a new podcast because you'll get the notifications because you've liked, subscribed, and pressed all the fun buttons that you can press.
00:46:14
Speaker
And if you do like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast, you can follow us on Patreon at patreon.com slash WCAD. And if you become one of our patrons for just $3 a month, you get access to plenty of exclusive content. So be sure to check that out. And as always, rating, reviewing, and all that fun stuff helps us as well. So we've got a great AFCON knockout round to come. The calendar has shifted. It's a World Cup year. Thanks for being part of it as always with us.