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AFL Fantasy ROOKIES | #PODPOD
95 Plays3 years ago
The Statesman, Lewy, Dos and special guest, Kaes from The Keeper League Pod talk about 12 rookies you should consider in AFL Fantasy Classic in 2022.
Some big names “turning heads” include Nick Daicos, Jason Horne-Francis, Josh Ward, Neil Erasmus, Elijah Hollands, Greg Clark and plenty more!
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Members also gain access to advanced spreadsheets for draft season, CBA analysis, state league fantasy scores, kick-in data, a comprehensive draftee analysis for your rookie research and much, much more.
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Transcript
Welcome and Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
G'day and welcome to another episode of the Point of Difference AFL fantasy podcast. A different look at AFL fantasy classic brought to you by the Kepa League pod.
Rookies and Cheap Players Focus
00:00:09
Speaker
This episode we're looking at all things rookies, all those cheapies to get your structure right this pre-season with our special guest, the Oracle, the Papa.
00:00:34
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of the Pod Pod. It's your boy, Dossi, here with Louis and Stado and our special guest, the Oracle. That's Kaze from the Kepa League Pod. We're talking all things rookies this episode, and we're going to do the same layout that we've done the past whole pre-season. We're going to be looking at three rookies each. And of course, our special guest takes hold and gets three himself today.
Oracle's Insights on Rookies
00:00:57
Speaker
But Kaze,
00:00:58
Speaker
I just want to know, first of all mate, welcome to the show, but what gets a rookie on the Oracle's radar for that early fantasy production?
00:01:06
Speaker
Thanks, Dos. Firstly, thanks for having me. It's nothing I enjoy more than talking about fantasy classic. But yeah, look, the two things that get me excited about a rookie, personally, a junior pedigree and opportunity. So they're the two big ones for me. I think a lot of coaches get drawn into higher draft picks being better fantasy options. That's not always the case. You see, kind of fantasy pedigree wise, we saw, you know, Will Phillips and Braden Campbell, all the chat last year, but it was really Will, sorry, Tom Power.
00:01:35
Speaker
who was there sitting there as a 118 averaging player staring you at the face and now he's the one who's head and shoulders above the rest and that's purely because he had that junior pedigree. Opportunity is the other one. You kind of see someone like James Rowe last year. He was an established Sandfall player and was always going to be a decent cash cow in round one. So in a side like the Crows where they're rebuilding and just trying to get you know games into new players, he was a guy who was always going to get that cash building from the start. So
00:02:04
Speaker
They're my two kind of rules. Trial position means nothing. In fantasy, just keep that in mind.
00:02:09
Speaker
Fantastic. And it's probably even better for us this year that we've got a few more of those junior numbers to work with. I know almost all the juniors this year at least had a little bit of a run through the legs whereas the year before that we didn't have some numbers on some draftees. So that's awesome. Hey, Louie, welcome to the show as well. And what things are you looking for for a
Selecting Rookies: Criteria and Strategy
00:02:27
Speaker
rookie to be in that starting squad? So Kaz is obviously looking for those things. I'm sure you're looking for some similar stuff, but what gives them the edge to being your starting squad, aside from the obvious, a green dot?
00:02:36
Speaker
Yeah look Doss, it really is just all of the above like Kay said, junior scoring, state league scoring, role, pre-season form, opportunity, a green dot, pretty much all of those but at the end of the day a lot of the time you do just find that.
00:02:53
Speaker
you kind of have to pick what's available. Certainly in the last couple of years we've had some some stinkers on the bench if you can recall blokes like a like a Ben Kavara for example but no I think all of those things that I just covered along with Kaze. Welcome to the show yourself Stato. How many rookies are you going to be feeling comfortable fielding this year to start with?
00:03:14
Speaker
Yes, look, it's a really interesting question. And first and foremost, we look at rookies and we build our structure around the rookies that are available. And I know there's a lot of hype this time of year, but you actually need that green dot. So they need to score for you. So that's the most important thing. I think we get a generally good sense of how many rookies are going to play.
00:03:36
Speaker
we know the ones that we think are fantasy relevant as well. So we probably book our structures based on who firstly we think is capable scoring enough to be on the field and is likely to get the green dot. We build our structure around that and the bench to me is a little bit more green dot-ish and look we're going to get some wrong
00:04:00
Speaker
There's plenty of rookies that have played round one that have never played a game afterwards or never played another game that season. Connor Downey was one last year. We all got excited about round one, ended up being a sitting on the pine all day as the sub.
00:04:18
Speaker
So look, at the end of the day, I like the number between four and six, but it always depends on the structure. And sometimes we just don't have a defensive rookie. Sometimes we don't have a forward rookie. So you just got to change the structure to reflect.
00:04:34
Speaker
And we'll just get into our rookies in just a moment, but I just wanted to know as well, what sort of a price would you consider to be too expensive to be sitting on your bench to start with?
Budgeting for Rookies
00:04:44
Speaker
Well, the most expensive player I've got on the bench at the moment is 192. I've got a 191 as well currently, although I don't really like having him in my squad, but it's just the likelihood he might play at this stage just
00:04:59
Speaker
due to a couple of injuries and the rest of 190. So my preference is there's never a dollar over 190, but they need to play. So green dots create the power. If in defence I've got to pay, you know, 250K because the only green dot option I've got, then that's what I'll do.
00:05:18
Speaker
Alright well without further ado let's get into our rookies we're going to be talking about three each and I've sort of given us the the guide I think we might have gone over it a couple of times but roughly below 300k because the 290k is the most expensive rookie this season which is obviously the number one draft pick.
00:05:34
Speaker
And just the caveat as well, for all of these guys, obviously if we're keen on them and they're gonna start, that's the key thing. They have to be named round one. So if they're not named round one and you're listening to this podcast right before round one, you do not start them if they've got a red dot. Even if it's on the bench, you want all your players to be generating you cash from the get go. So just keep that in mind if you are listening a bit down the line. We are sort of projecting who we think is gonna be best 22 come round one.
Key Rookie Highlights
00:06:02
Speaker
Without further ado though, Stado, do you want to take us away with your first rookie pick? And he is the youngest player I have on my list. It's Nick Daikos. So we're talking midfielder only at 284k, discussed as the best fantasy product out of last year's draft and looks set to be straight in the team. So there is talk at the moment that him and Pendles will be swapping a half back roll with some time in the midfield.
00:06:30
Speaker
The scoring pedigree is important. Yes, he dropped to pick four, but at the end of the day, I think he's our best fantasy option. Average 35.8 possessions in five games that Oakley charges last season.
00:06:46
Speaker
And what's most impressive is he's got a really good score build. So he averaged 22 kicks, 14 handballs, 6 marks, 3 tackles and 2 goals per game with an average of 136 points per game. And you don't get too many higher going through that junior system.
00:07:04
Speaker
So lock and load it on the field and we'll potentially get defender status at about round six. So keep him to the round 14 by and hopefully we'll have a 200 to 250K increase unless he really gets good opportunity might even go past the 300K mark and that's a damn good rookie.
00:07:27
Speaker
And Kaze, who do we have? I obviously love Nick Daikos. Kaze, who's your first rookie that you've got for us off the board? The guy I want to talk about, Dossie, is Conor McDonald. Now, I reckon he could have one of the biggest fantasy games coming out of this year's draft. Obviously, we know what Nick Daikos can do, but Conor McDonald's a bit lesser known. He had the footy on the string in the NAB league last year as well, averaged 30 touches in his four matches.
00:07:53
Speaker
A running machine, he's got a real thirst for the footy, you'd love that, I know. There's a guy who just oozes. Thirst, you say? Yeah, he oozes that thirst. And he also likes laying tackles. So with a 121 fantasy average, only Nick Daikos averaged more than him in last year's draft. So he's up in some good, good company. Look, I like him landing at Hawthorne. I think him and Josh Ward will be vying for a spot early.
00:08:19
Speaker
They're probably going to be up against guys like Liam Shills, Dan Howe, Harry Morrison, John Newcomb, Lucky Bramble, Connor Nash. All of them aren't necessarily guns by any stretch of the imagination. Shills is probably the exception, but he's on the slide in terms of his age.
00:08:35
Speaker
They could really give guys like McDonald and Nash a crack early. The big thing is, he had a big, big game in the intro club, so watched, sorry, read some stuff from that, played in the guts, got plenty of pills, and even kicked a snag. Now, I think my manscaped, hashtag, sponsored ad, smoothball, called Dossy, is that he plays round one ahead of the much-hyped Josh Ward.
00:09:00
Speaker
That is a smooth ball call if ever I've heard one mate. That's a bit of nut feel on that one. So Connor McDonald, do you know his price mate? Do you know his price in the AFL fantasy classic format? I don't know if you mentioned that before. Doss, you know, I do not know anything about pricing.
00:09:16
Speaker
I reckon he's in the 200, early 200 bracket. I think Stado is trying to find that out for us. Statesman, any interest in Conor McDonald then after what you've heard from K is the Oracle? The Oracle has his finger on the pulse and many other things apparently, but I will say I was impressed with their language about him. He's 240 K, so he's not cheap.
00:09:40
Speaker
But he's certainly going to be on the radar. Now, even if he doesn't get selected round one, he's obviously a great downgrade option somewhere along the line. So there's one thing we know what Sam Mitchell is going to do after the preseason is actually look after the kids. So he wants to build that future group. Hence the talk in the trade period is actually getting some of the older blokes out while they've got value to get better draft pick. So he's all about preparing the next list.
00:10:10
Speaker
Fantastic. We've had a few connection issues, but we're hoping we've got the great man back. Louis, who's your first rookie you've got for us?
00:10:18
Speaker
Hey Dossi, I'm hoping you've got me mate. Absolutely. Beautiful. Love it. Alright, after a few technical difficulties, let's get into Sam Hayes who could be a little bit of a home run for us at R3 in 2022. He's 22 years old. He was drafted back in 2017. He's actually the best ruckman in that 2017 draft pool as well.
00:10:41
Speaker
He had a contract extension to 2023 which I think proves that the club has a little bit of faith in him so he's bound to play in 2022 as that 22 year old sort of mature age ruckman. He's got a bit of pedigree to him. He won the Port BNF in the Sandfall. Average 87.4 fantasy points off the back of 14 disposals and 5 marks per game. But he also led the Sandfall for hit outs with 620 so that's
00:11:09
Speaker
34 per game. He should be able to compete at AFL level as well, if he gets a good shot in the ruck that is. We will get more into that later. But playing in the Sandfall as Port's number one ruck, he was actually up against mostly ex-AFL ruckmen. So the top seven ruckmen for hit outs in 2021 were all ex-AFL players and that included Kieran Strawn who
00:11:34
Speaker
accumulated the second most hit outs. He played two games late in the season for Adelaide for a 73.5 average albeit without robbing the side. So that probably begs the question how's he going to work alongside Lysette?
00:11:49
Speaker
I know last week our theme was sort of it's a pre-season watch and I think this episode particularly it's going to be taken up a notch so it'll be something to monitor in the pre-season games but with the lack of cheap depth at R3 it's likely going to be a decision between who plays on your field or rather at R3 out of Hayes and Combin I think.
00:12:12
Speaker
yeah perfect you've summed it up perfectly man and hopefully we do get one of those two options because yeah it'd be a shame to have to well just have a red dot there because i don't think any of us are comfortable spending up on someone that would be much more expensive even like a peruse or something at r3 it just seems like way too much coin to be burning on the bench so hopefully we get that
00:12:29
Speaker
Hayes option and good to have you back after that technical difficulties I will just say as well that um, I know there's a big name that's yet to come. These aren't in any Necessarily any particular order even though day cost did come up at number one, but we're just talking about talking petty down, mate
00:12:45
Speaker
We're talking about 12 players we want to chat about. The name will come up, don't worry. He's coming up. Is he below 300k this year? Paddy? Paddy? Nah, he's up at 400k I reckon. That's a nice tab. I'll get through my first option though and I'm talking about Josh Ward. So the 7th pick in the draft this year and he's 278k.
00:13:06
Speaker
Another player out of Hawthorne, so Kays went the deep cut, the deeper cut, not too deep, going with Conor McDonald, but Dossie's going with the obvious one of Josh Ward, and he's a running machine and a ball magnet, massive junior fantasy numbers, 30 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 109 average in the NAB league.
00:13:26
Speaker
He's going to be one of the Hawks best runners from day one. He's just got an absolute monster tank on him. We've already heard Jay Gromira and Tichel talking him up, being a young prospect that's, you know, turning heads. I've heard that so much. Turning heads at training. It's the worst, it's the worst saying in the preseason, but I'm going to echo it. He's turning heads and he's in line for that early debut for the season, potentially as early as round one. We've heard Kays say maybe that might be McDonald's. So keep an eye on that one.
00:13:56
Speaker
I think you'll get inside just given they're going for the youth movement. He's a top 10 pick I think they'll want to get plenty of time into him early and the fact that he's already sort of You know the footage of him out there as well He's just got that speed and acceleration out of out of stoppages and stuff I think he's going to be an absolute class player going forward and 278 K's
00:14:15
Speaker
You know, you've got, if you're spending up, we're expecting a pretty decent average, but I think he will get the time on ground. If he does get selected, I think you'll get the time on ground, et cetera, to be able to perform and the solid roll potentially on a wing, maybe a little bit of through the midfield as well. Anyone want to talk on Josh Ward? We're all pretty comfortable with that pick there.
00:14:33
Speaker
I think with Sam Mitchell coming in as coach, they're going to want to showcase their pick number four, I think it was, or certainly their first pick in the draft. So just to create a little bit of hype and excitement for Hawthorne's new rebuilding dynasty, I think he'll be someone who gets games pretty early on.
00:14:51
Speaker
Awesome. Let's get to our second player on the list. Dido, who have you got for us? I've got Elijah Hollins, 190k in midfield forward. He's actually the son of Ben Hollins, who spent some time in Sydney and a Richmond footy club. He turns 20 on Anzac Day. He's at the same day as my birthday, which makes him 16 years younger than me.
00:15:12
Speaker
He could have been the number one draft pick in 2020, but slipped down to number seven due to having an ACL during that season. Mitch missed his top age year due to COVID and because of some injury of course, but was showing good signs as a bottom major, averaging 17 disposals, five marks and four.
00:15:35
Speaker
tackles. Now talent-wise this boy has got it in spades. He's probably at the right club, although I would argue that there's probably too many young talented players at the one club.
00:15:50
Speaker
but I think he's likely to get games. He's probably the majority of people's F6 and I don't think it's a bad start having him at your F6 and I think he'll have a pretty solid impact. I think he'll play half forward and I think he'll get a little bit of time in the midfield as it goes. One thing Gold Coast need to do is actually increase their depth through the midfield and I think he's a classic one to do that.
00:16:15
Speaker
Perfect, mate. Yeah, I could have summed it up better myself. I think he's on everyone's radar as well. So it's good to get through some of the more popular picks, and he will certainly be one on everyone's radar. I think he was on the traders this week as well, so I haven't had a chance to listen to that. Yeah, it's a ripper interview. Great. All right, next up, Kays, who have you got as your second pick for us here?
00:16:34
Speaker
I obviously spoke about Conor McDonald with the pedigree last time. Now, I'm talking about Jake Saliga with my next pick. He's got a bit of pedigree and also opportunity. He's a new crow who's flying under the radar a bit, I think. Real classy mover, put together a very good season for the Eastern Rangers last year.
00:16:53
Speaker
averaged 22 touches and 105 fantasy points. He's also an absolute tackling machine, averaged 6.3 tackles per game, which was the most of any 18-year-old in last year's draft. I think Greg Clark was the only player to average more. Now, Soligo actually even played one VFL game for Richmond last year and didn't look out of place, collected 17 touches and laid three tackles on his way to 67 fantasy points.
00:17:19
Speaker
Now, what's piqued my attention with Celigo is that there was no Josh Richelli in the Crows most recent intro club hit out, and Celigo was playing in their A team. So, we saw a bit of James Rowe last year, Lachie Murphy's been on the nose a bit of a late. Is there a forwards pocket spot just waiting and open for someone like Jake Celigo? Now, obviously, take it with a grain of salt, we've still got a lot of time under there.
00:17:46
Speaker
Sorry, a lot of time to go before round one, but he's a 220K priced midfielder. Might be able to save you a bit of cash for elsewhere if you don't want to pay up for those top-enders. I'm talking about us here in terms of salary cap here, but yeah, I'm liking what I'm seeing because not only did he show it in the underage level, he also stepped up the VFL level, played well, and there's a bit of pedigree and opportunity here for young Jake.
00:18:12
Speaker
All right. Okay. So just for a bit of context for listeners, we said to Kaze when he jumped on, we said, mate, look, we'll take the easy options. You go to the deep carts and boy, I've got to say, maybe I've just don't have my finger on the pulse this preseason, but this is one that I hadn't, hadn't crossed my mind yet. And I'm glad you brought him to my attention. Jake Selego. Um, did anyone else know about him before this podcast, Louis?
00:18:38
Speaker
Nah, honestly, I hadn't even heard of him outside of the keeper leagues. Fantastic resources for up and coming draftees. There you go. Great plug, Louis. Thanks for that. And that's why we have the Oracle on. Keep an eye out for Adelaide youngster, Jake Saligo, this preseason. Louis, who's your second player for us on this rookie pod?
Top Draft Picks and Their Potential
00:18:58
Speaker
Yeah, so mind someone that Doss has kind of prodded me to talk a little bit about this week. Jason Horn Francis. I'm not sure if anybody's heard of him. Honestly, I think a majority of our listeners know just as much as we do about Horn Francis at this point, but.
00:19:14
Speaker
He was the number one pick in the 2021 draft and he's been making waves from all reports really. He comes from Sandfall League level. He was averaging 74.2 at the level, played a flexible role between midfield and forward, applying his craft as a damaging sort of more high impact player. I wouldn't be surprised, first of all, I wouldn't be surprised if in 12 months from now, I'm well off the mark here, but I just wanted to raise some points about starting him.
00:19:44
Speaker
So obviously number one the hype is real as many you may have seen me tweet earlier this week it's for good reason as well and it has nothing to do with fantasy. North Melbourne finished bottom the ladder last year and they've been seller dwelling for a few years before that. The only place to go now is up which I'd argue is the most optimistic a football club can be in their position. The priority is to sell memberships to get fans excited to
00:20:12
Speaker
attend football matches, watch North Melbourne Games in 2022. So I'm not reading too much into the preseason takes prior to practice games at this point. Number two, he's part of a young developing team with a lot of midfield depth.
00:20:27
Speaker
not only is he going to be behind some of the already established guys in the pecking order he and the rest of his teammates are likely going to be experimented with in different positions as well and given what we know that he's capable up forward i wouldn't be surprised to see him spend a lot more time forward to the football
00:20:44
Speaker
And thirdly, rookies generally utilize their outside game before their contested inside game begins to develop. So, Rao in recent years is probably a bit of an exception to that rule, but I can see a world where Horn Francis' average drops from the 16 disposals he averaged at sandfall level in the actual AFL. Maybe that drops to 12 or 13, which when you're averaging 74 points in the sandfall, that's
00:21:11
Speaker
you know, upwards of 10 points, but obviously natural development and all that. It's all speculation at this point, but at a 290K price tag, I think you can get a little bit of better value elsewhere. Wow, huge call from Louis. He's put his balls on the line for that one, Stado. Do you want to counteract with anything? Are you on that same wavelength or do you reckon in 12 months, Louis might be looking the fool? He'll be looking the fool.
00:21:39
Speaker
Oh, sorry, you want me to say on his take of Horned Francis. Look, I just want to see how he plays. So we're here in the hype at the moment. Let's see it actually play out. But look, good experience at senior level, which is just so good for their development. He's got the talent. He can put the score on the board. It's going to get forward status. Look, I think you just lock him and load him.
00:22:10
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's overthinking as well. I'm definitely not going against him, but I can see where you come from, though, Louis, in terms of you want to be more ceiling for a high price player like that. And that's a fair comment. That's why I said when I talked about Nick Daikos, he was the number one fantasy player.
00:22:29
Speaker
Yeah, yep. Alright, I'll get to my second player, which is Nathan O'Driscoll. So, 190k dirt cheap defender and he's slotted firmly in at my D6 should he be playing round one. I think this guy is going... I don't think he's under the radar. I think he's one of the more popular picks down back, but I just think he's a safer D6 than people are giving him credit for. Everyone's scrambling, paying up, you know, for the...
00:22:52
Speaker
I think we're not really going to talk about him tonight but like the Josh Sins and the Campbell Chesses and these guys for me you know you're paying up a fair bit and the job security I think is quite similar with O'Driscoll. I think O'Driscoll will play a lot of games this year. He's the big-bodied mid, he's got great athleticism. He was like elite testing in both short distance and some 2k time trials in his draft year as well.
00:23:13
Speaker
he's got that just killer work ethic you can kind of see it in the footage from match practice he's already getting those run down tackle highlights consistently you see him just coming out of nowhere he just never stops working and i think he's going to get that kind of a role like i don't know whether he'll get that midfield role that he's playing in the preseason but i think they'll find a spot for him somewhere and um at 190 centimeters he's got a bit of versatility as well but
00:23:38
Speaker
The fact that they're playing him as an inside midfielder right now and he's consistently playing in that role, you know, there's a lot of guys going in and out with, you know, whatever injuries or whatever, but he's consistently in there wouldn't surprise me if they really give him a crack either in the midfield or on a wing.
00:23:54
Speaker
and at 100, like I said, 190 centimetres. It doesn't have a huge fantasy ceiling, 62 in the waffle last season, but I think it's just that, personally, I think his job security could be pretty high this year. Like I said, just that hustle that he displays. The only word of caution I'll put on, Dos, here is when we're looking at match simulation, there's two midfields.
00:24:18
Speaker
So all of a sudden we've got the double allotment. And there's no doubt they're developing him, but I think Mundy gets first crack at this. Yeah, like all these players, you know, look for the green dot. I think if he's in the side round one, is what I'm saying though, I think that he will solidify that spot. And I think we shouldn't think twice about having him at that D6. I think he'll be solid player this year. All right, Stado, take us through your last player that you've got for us on this pod.
00:24:47
Speaker
Yeah, I'm going old here. Greg Clark, 190k Midfielder returns 25 in May. You've all heard about him. He has got great leadership. He was captain of the WA State Team in the National Under 18 Championships back in 2015. So he's got leadership ridden all over him. He's been sort of on the fringe of getting on an AFL list for quite a few years.
00:25:14
Speaker
But last year he had his best season in the waffle where he averaged 27 possessions and 7 tackles a game. And comes into the side, and this goes back to the point Kays was making, opportunity. This is a club that needs to reset its midfield group and great opportunity for him.
00:25:34
Speaker
I don't know if he'll be in the top three in that midfield group, but I certainly think he'll be rotating through. So if selected, he should be on your field, but also understanding we've already talked about seven mid-only rookies here. You can't have all of them in your team. And going to the point that Louis just made,
00:25:59
Speaker
At the end of the day, if you're battling off between Horn Francis and Greg Clark, if Greg Clark's playing and he's named in the midfield, he's going to score more than a 290 priced rookie. So you're saving a hundred grand of putting Clark on your field over the number one pick, and he's going to score more, and he's probably going to have a more consistent season, although Horn Francis is going to be a better footballer in the long term.
00:26:29
Speaker
So I understand that point. So Greg Clark for me is a lock in your team. I've had him for most of the preseason actually sitting on my bench and it's more related to price than what output will be. So really interesting to see what happens in the practice games.
00:26:45
Speaker
Kays, who do you have as your third deep cut for us? This one's deep, and I have to ask for a little bit of forgiveness too here, Dossie, because... You only have one rule. One rule. Stato, I don't know if you listen to the keeper leg, but I like to break rules. Fair enough. Look.
00:27:04
Speaker
Will you give me a little bit of extra cash, please, Dos? Because I think this guy almost might be a lock. Tanner Bruhn from the GWS club. Now, I've spoken about pedigree and I've spoken about opportunity. He has opportunity in spades. And I'll tell you why I think he's a must-have for round one. Last year, he played 11 regular season games and he only averaged 37.7. Now that's disgusting. I'm not going to make excuses for that.
00:27:29
Speaker
He did only play, sorry, average 59% time on ground. He played both finals in his first year of footy, was the sub in the first final, scored 33 points in the loss to the Cats in this second final. Last year's best score actually was a 71 against Geelong, from only 63% time on ground, picked up 12 touches, 5 tackles and a goal.
00:27:50
Speaker
Now, looking back on his junior stuff, he averaged 74.5 in two games in the 2019 season, sorry, 2020 season, and last year he played eight VFL games where he averaged 20 touches and 1.5 goals a game, averaging 82 fantasy points there. Now,
00:28:07
Speaker
If anyone has opportunity, it's Tanner Broun. We've got Toby Green, he's going to miss the first six weeks of the season. We've got Brent Daniels, he's unfortunately got Liz Frank or whatever that is, that foot injury, he's gone for most of the season. So apart from Bobby Hill and 30-something year old Matt De Boer, plus their midfielders of maybe Toronto and Canelio, who's actually going to play a small forward role at the Giants? There's no natural person up there apart from Bobby Hill.
00:28:33
Speaker
I reckon Bruin, he's quite highly touted in the giant set up. He's going to get every opportunity this year. And I think if you're going to, you know, as Stata was saying, if you want to get rid of Jason Horn-Francis bringing a Greg Clark, he might give you some little bit of spending money to upgrade to Tana Bruin. Thoughts?
00:28:50
Speaker
Lads, could you spend up 316k on Tanner Bruin? I mean, I started with him last year, so I'm a bad person to ask. I'm still butt hurt from that performance last year. But I will say, he started performing just from the eye test. He had zero confidence to start the season. And by the end of the year, you could see him starting to adapt to AFL level, looked a lot more comfortable at the level at the end of the year.
00:29:14
Speaker
Any thoughts on you can't pay that price though, can you? But the job security arguments pretty good from K's I reckon. Yeah, might be a good keeper league pick. It's a lot of money to play for a guy who as K so eloquently put will be playing small forward.
00:29:37
Speaker
I don't mind it, Kaz. You know what? I might back in, mate. You are the Oracle, after all. So we'll say he might sneak in for my team, even if it's just for a week, just to all the Oracle. I look forward to coming back on the podcast later in the year and just start gloating. It's funny if you're involved. He's already booked himself in for another episode. Love that. All right, Louis, what have you got to round us out for your third rookie?
Mature-Age Recruits Discussion
00:29:56
Speaker
My final player, honestly you probably could have copy pasted all of Statesman's notes from Greg Clark for this guy as well. His name is James Cetus, plays in the sandfall, mature age 26 year old, also has leadership qualities, he was the former captain of the Geelong VFL side. 2021 McGarry Medalist, which is of course the BNF in the sandfall.
00:30:21
Speaker
average 97 in 2020 and 104 in 2021. In terms of breaking that down, that was 28.6 disposals, 4 marks, 5.6 tackles, 4.7 clearances a game, all at 79% efficiency, disposal efficiency.
00:30:39
Speaker
and just looking at opportunity sons have very poor midfield depth so we're looking at Took, Matt Rao, Noah Anderson, starts to drop off, Brayden Birrini, is he best 22? I don't know. Then we look at Davies, Swallow, Flanders, Hollands, these are all sort of fringe guys who
00:31:00
Speaker
at Constable as well. So these are all guys who you probably have a couple of question marks about whether or not they play each week, how much they attend centre bounces, all that. So I think ultimately James Cetus, he won a spot on the list as a train on player competing with Nathan Freeman. Both are midfielders so I'm going to take from that that Gold Coast have identified that they need more depth in that area.
00:31:26
Speaker
and I won't be surprised to see if he lines up round one and he's another one just like Greg Clarke who maybe you do sacrifice one of those more cashed up rookies and chuck him on your field because he should be a score if named. Did you raise the disposal efficiency at a little dig at Dossie Boy there?
00:31:45
Speaker
Oh, almost certainly. Yeah, I did. Oh, dear. And I heard Case jump in as well. That was great. Great to see he had to get that dig on this podcast as well. Thanks for that, Case. Much appreciated. All right. I'll get to my third rookie. And this guy is probably more... This is probably the biggest one in terms of just watching where he's at this preseason. I don't know where the job security is going to lie with him to start the season at least.
00:32:08
Speaker
Another Docker for me to finish off and it's Neil Erasmus and this guy's probably the one that aside from maybe a Daikos, I'd put him on the same level as potentially a ward type guy when looking and even a Horned Francis depending on if he ends up converting to a fantasy player as where I'm highest on long term. Erasmus numbers are just ludicrous in terms of fantasy production for a junior.
00:32:34
Speaker
He's, I think, has a spot in the side if it depends if Longmuir's ready to pop him in there. So, he's at 272k, which is obviously pretty expensive, so you're gonna have to sacrifice in a starting roster type thing. If he's got the role, it's gonna be between probably him, a ward, you know, a Hobbs if you're looking that way.
00:32:55
Speaker
that type of player but 36 disposals of game this is in his school team but when he played for the waffle colts it was 28 disposal 16 contested touches and eight marks which as an inside midfielder getting those eight marks on the outside that indicates to me something we talk about quite a lot that's thirst that's undeniable thirst that's huge thirst on the outside of the contest which we all love so that's that inside outside game that I know Stado loves
00:33:20
Speaker
There's talk a lot of talk about him playing that mixture of wing and inside midfield in the early goings We know there's lots to lots to change. This is just trial period so wait and see when the real thing starts But another guy that's 190 centimeters has a really strong contested mark and a solid tank as well So he could play that forward midfield mix that they're looking at and honestly it's probably going to be between him and the likes of a Will Brody who gets that go at that role, so
00:33:48
Speaker
I'm excited to see what he does this year and whether it's a keeper league versus a classic team That's the what I'm weighing up at the moment But he's a guy I'm looking at in the preseason and I'll probably be weighing up between him and Josh Ward for me as to who I'm gonna start I think Ward's job security is gonna be a lot easier to to handle though in this first year given the dockers kind of midfield depth and
00:34:09
Speaker
But um, any thoughts on Erasmus? I know you're super high on him 2Ks, but do you reckon he'll pop in his first year? I am high on him long term I'm my only concern about him this year especially is last year is playing a lot of schoolboy footy so and schoolboy footy in Perth so I'm gonna guess that's not the strongest kind of you know background to head into your first
00:34:31
Speaker
AFL season with like from all reports at the moment. We're hearing he's doing very well at training But is he quite ready to step up to full AFL level from from such a lower level? That's my only concern for him this year
00:34:44
Speaker
Yeah and I guess also we've just seen Sarong get nurtured for two whole seasons who looked like a really AFL ready talent and you know and we've seen Long Muir basically state. I think it was only via Twitter or something he liked to comment and it was like some person saying oh Long Muir is giving Sarong less time to nurture him through the season as a young player and
00:35:05
Speaker
you know, the fact that Longmuir kind of acknowledged that as a reason why he's getting such low time on ground. You wonder whether they do the same with like a guy you've just said that played quite a bit junior footy last year. Did you have something to add to, Louis? Oh, that was exactly what I was going to say, mate. Just monitor the points per minute in the preseason because Fremantle have a bit of a history of making their draftees play quite a low time on ground. So he might be a superstar and he still might be worth fielding, but it's definitely something to
00:35:34
Speaker
to keep an eye out for. We're going to go fast round table style here. Just a yes or no. If this person is named, whether you would consider them at their price as well. I'll try and get the prices up. I might not be able to get them in time, but Willie Rioli comes in at 293K. Pretty high job security you'd imagine. Would you be keen on him starting with him statesman? Possibly. Yes or no, please.
00:36:02
Speaker
Yes, I'd consider it. Garrett McDonough. Kays, you're a Dons man. He's very cheap. He's cheap, but Dons salads are looking pretty good if they're at full strength. I just don't know where he fits in. So I think he might be a bit of falls gold at this stage unless we say something massive in the pre-season. Will Gould, Louis.
00:36:24
Speaker
Yes, but I'm not convinced he's not just AI coming out of the swans at the moment, because he's just been unseen for a number of years now. I've seen him in a couple of snaps on their socials, just laying a strong tackle here or there. Yeah, if he's named, he's a must-have for me. Josh Rachelli, statesman, don't know if you know too much about this crow, but apparently we've got, what's his name? I've got to look him back up. Jake Saligo coming in ahead of him, though, in this preseason, so maybe avoid Rachelli?
00:37:02
Speaker
Yes, Dossie, he's not actually officially signed by the Saints yet, but word is on Twitters, if you believe them, he's going to be a cheapest chips 190 forward rock, because he did pick up a heap of hit outs. Really? Yeah, a heap of hit outs. Let me just get this, I want to be correct. He's only 192 though, isn't he? He is, but he had 189 hit outs last year as 192 centimetre player.
00:37:18
Speaker
Yeah, it's an interesting one. I'll consider him, yes.
00:37:30
Speaker
Yeah, but in state league, not at the high. I'm just saying state, oh, but I know Louis pretty keen on, um, on hazy as well, because he's an absolute brute of a player and, uh, he could fit into that saints lineup quite nicely. And if he comes in at a bargain price, I reckon he's a must have. Definitely a former teammate as well. Yeah. Louis former teammate. Absolutely. When are we going to see you out there, mate? 190 K we're going to need you in the mid season draft. I reckon Louis COVID replacement, mate.
00:38:00
Speaker
Oh, maybe if I drop 10 kilos, mate. All right, what do you think of Campbell Cheser, Louis, as a starting option? Yeah, I'm not as high as others. In the back line. Yeah, he's a little bit expensive for me, but it probably depends on what else is available. But look, I'll consider him, so I'll give him a yes. All right, and the next, the last player I think we've got here, 268K, so he's slightly more expensive than Cheser, just going ahead of him in the draft. Statesman, are you keen on Josh Sin from Port?
00:38:29
Speaker
Yeah, defender. So, if named and we're struggling for other rookies, definitely considered. Oh, we've got one final one for Kays, who's an Essendon man. What a word that this guy's going to get an early debut. 266K. Talked about a bit of midfield time, even from the skipper Dyson Hepple himself. What do you think of Ben Hobbs this year? Love him long term. I'm just a bit worried again this year. Good call. You know, we've got Caldwell coming back in. If we're full strength,
00:38:57
Speaker
it's going to be hard to see someone like Ben Hobbs slot straight into that midfield. If so, he might get like a 40 pocket roll and it's not going to show his best. So I'd probably avoid at a premium price.
00:39:09
Speaker
Kays, you've been fantastic with your rookie deep cuts today. Thanks for that, mate. I'm just going to go through four quick Dossys pods, and we might even jump and get your opinion on these as well. So these are our point of differences. Our potty pod, pod pods, potty pod pods for Dossy, and this one's on the Melbourne side of things. You know I couldn't avoid this. 371K, job security through the roof. Just want a granny. It's Jake Bowie. I might get Kays. No, Kays might not give me what I want. Louis, any thoughts on Jake Bowie?
00:39:39
Speaker
I've already given you my thoughts on Jake Bowie in the in the Messengers Dossie. It's a no from me. 371K is just a little bit expensive for a bloke who averages about 18 touches, but only distributes about 60 average AFL fantasy points. So it's not for me at the price. I think I'd still take him over Tana Bruin there.
00:40:03
Speaker
My second Melbourne player that I've got as a point of difference, I think he's going so, not talked about enough in terms of we're all talking about how, oh, let's not start Max Gorn. He's way too overpriced given Luke Jackson's going to be taking all this ruck time. Well, how about Luke Jackson then? If he's going to be taking all that ruck time at 520K as a ruck forward, I actually, I'm starting to come around to him as the perfect player to the pair.
00:40:28
Speaker
with a riskier ruck set up in your Braden Proust. If you start with him, I know Stado doesn't like going with Braden Proust, I've come back around to the idea. 5% owned, Lukie Jackson, a 62 average. I reckon he easily goes 75 to 80 this year as that ruck forward and could cover your Proust if he goes down, Stado.
00:40:46
Speaker
I need to send you to therapy. You don't spend $500,000 for someone that might make you 40 grand over the first 14 weeks and then trade him out to a premium.
00:41:01
Speaker
A lot of potential there, and I think if you look at... Sell your Jack Bowie down to a 190K rookie and take that money and add it on to Luke Jackson to get yourself a premium. I reckon Kays and I might have Jackson this year. What do you reckon, Kays? Not in classic, mate. Even I'm not that stupid.
00:41:23
Speaker
Stachos just coughed up his glass, he just took him out of the... Alright, I'll throw to you guys. We'll after that.
00:41:38
Speaker
Will Phillips at 366k. This bloke's already admitted that he, you know, struggled with his first year at IFL level, given the fact he came off a COVID year in his juniors and couldn't play that year at all. So coming in, Stado's raving about his leadership at the club. Have you guys heard about the the Tom Powell Will Phillips handball masterclass that they run after trainings as well?
00:42:02
Speaker
An absolute great story came out about that. They're already teaching others how to handball because they're that bloody good at it already. What do you reckon K is? 366 K, do we see some midfield time from him?
00:42:12
Speaker
I owned him in one of my keepers last year and watched him quite closely. Seemed to spend too much time up forward and I just don't see heaps more mood field time this year. Yes, they'll want to get it into him eventually, but just looks a little bit undersized, especially compared to Tom Powell. So he's another miss for me this year. I reckon maybe third year breakout for Will Phillips next year though.
00:42:33
Speaker
Yeah I love him long term again but yeah I just watched the role but I think there is too many guys to contend with but I will talk about his running mate in the Tom Powell Will Phillips handball masterclass that is Tom Powell for my second pod from North Melbourne and Tom Powell at 574k with the mid forward status already looking really comfortable in that midfield
00:42:55
Speaker
Had a bit of an injury interrupted year last year, tailed off toward the end. Louis, any interest in a bit of a second year breakout from Powell? I think he ticks a lot of boxes for that second year breakout.
00:43:06
Speaker
First of all, I think those two should go down to Witten Oval and teach all the Bulldogs players how to handball if that's the case. But Tom Powell, I'm relatively interested in, he's not someone I'm ballsy enough to start, but he's someone that I could see jumping on early if he's got a big enough role in that kangaroos midfield. I know Kaze spoke earlier in the podcast about fantasy pedigree and actually brought this guy's name up as an example.
00:43:34
Speaker
He's a gun and if he's gonna be attending plenty of center bounces I could easily see him take that big jump that we've seen from other second year breakouts like Toronto and Clayton Oliver It's just whether or not now he's got that role and just I had a bonus one I had a pottery pod pod potty pod pod and that's Tristan Tristan cherry 281 K just there's
00:43:59
Speaker
there's some word that he's sticking around to take that Goldie role. If we see him out at any stage looking like he's going to get that number one mantle at 281K, if he's selected without Goldie at some point, then just keep an eye out for him, he's very cheap. All right, that's the pod pods for this week. Kays, I just want to ask you, seeing as you are on here and you're our rookie expert, what can we find on keeperleague.com.au that we can use for our rookie research this preseason?
00:44:27
Speaker
Fantastic question, Dos, thanks for asking. Look, yeah, we put together a little bit of a draft analysis document, nice little PDF you can download if you become a member of the Keeper League. Basically, we go through every single draftee, give a little information on their stats from last year, the likelihood if they're going to debut this year, whether they're a bit more relevant for your fantasy classic or your Keeper League setup,
00:44:53
Speaker
but also a bit of a blurb about what they did last year and where we think they're going to sit in their size this year. So if you want to get really deep into your rookies, sign up as a member, download that and you'll be ahead of the game for sure. You'll know about Jake's Allego before most people do as well, which is a nice little addition.
00:45:11
Speaker
Love it, mate. And you say we, but that was all the mighty oracles doing that one. So fantastic work on that. It's a great resource. And the link forward to become a member will be in the description as well. If you become a silver or gold member, you get access to our weekly pod pods throughout the season. And we're getting close to D-Day when we go behind that on thekeepaligpod.com.au. So check it out. Thanks again, Kays. And thanks as always to you, Lewin Stado. See you all next week.