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Dunkley, Neale & Dusty Out… Jack Ziebell Worth a Shout? | #PODPod
98 Plays4 years ago
Five-time top 100 AFL Fantasy Classic finisher and 3rd overall in 2018, The Statesman, joins Dos to discuss all things fantasy ahead of round 7. Plenty to talk about with the injuries to star fantasy guns Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale and Dustin Martin! Plus: the scoring power of North Melbourne's skipper is getting to ridiculous levels - the lads discuss the balance score chasing vs missing out on the Ziebell explosion. Then Stato & Dos go through a heap of segments, answer your listener questions from Twitter, and tease a huge announcement!
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Transcript
Introduction and Episode Setup
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference AFL fantasy podcast, a fresh perspective on AFL fantasy brought to you by the keeper league pod. On this episode, Louis is a bit crook tonight, so we called up the Statesman to fill
Round Seven Fantasy Insights
00:00:12
Speaker
in this week. We go through all the hottest topics ahead of round seven fantasy footy action and stick around to the end for a special announcement as well. Remember to leave a rating review for the show on iTunes, but Statesman, what's the time for? The pod pod.
00:00:42
Speaker
Welcome to the Pod
Introducing Statesman: Credibility and Experience
00:00:44
Speaker
Pod. I'm Doss here with five time top 100 finisher and third overall in 2018. The Statesman, welcome Stado. G'day, Dossy. How are you, mate? It's great when two young minds get together.
Statesman's Season Journey: Successes and Struggles
00:00:58
Speaker
Yes, very young minds indeed, Stado. How's your season been going in fantasy so far, the fresh young mind that you are? Are you putting that head skill together and getting yourself a good team out in the park week to week?
00:01:11
Speaker
Yeah, pretty much, to be honest. I started with a really good structure, if I remember having a chat to you a few weeks ago. But I was 17,000 overall. So each week I've been climbing up. Last week I got to 3,000 positions. So I was feeling pretty comfortable because it's just the building time.
00:01:32
Speaker
But I've got smashed around the park a little bit this week. But I'll talk about the little moves when we get to, I nailed it and failed it. But I had a little bit of a rough week with a 1986 it was, which has dropped me down about 3000 positions, saying it was just such a big scoring week with a few individuals and just didn't have the ones that counted this week.
Doss's Challenges: Trades and Performance Reflection
00:02:01
Speaker
Yep, well, you had me for the score this week, 1952 for me, and it ruined what could have been a nice, relaxing, long weekend for me, Stado. Just a bad run of late with my trades. Like you said, we'll get to that in a minute, but just not a great weekend for me. And it's been a rough few weeks. So if you're in the same situation, I'm feeling your pain. I'm trying to be, as those traders say, the buttermouse, it's got to be me at the moment. I'm really trying to keep a float for the season at the moment.
00:02:32
Speaker
Just in general though, have you had any big regrets early in the season and how's that method and the system you spoke about earlier? How's that been holding up in 2021? And despite a little bit of a drop this week, are you fairly confident going forward?
00:02:46
Speaker
Yeah, look, I'm very confident. So I've only got one red dot last weekend and actually on the Saturday, I was absolutely ready to get rid of Brockman and he was going to Darcy Parish. And I do remember speaking to you about this on the messages as well.
00:03:05
Speaker
So I sort of, I pushed away from that because it's actually not the right long-term plan and it's probably where I'm sort of got to this season in saying I've really got to stick fat in collecting the big dogs when they become available at the right price.
Mistakes and Regrets: Learning from Fantasy Decisions
00:03:24
Speaker
So I went Titch instead of Merritt, but sold out one of the mid-prizes. So my major regret, and I'm a Guns N' Rookie man, and my major regret is I had three mid-prizes to start off the season. A lot of people went a lot more than that. I only went three, but all three have failed. One because of a song, the other...
00:03:49
Speaker
The other because of a 120 plus in a pre-season game being Jordan Clark. Yeah. And I had William Drew as well, who actually was the one I moved to Mitchell. So in a way, I sort of wish this week I went just because of the score factor. So I ended up going Finn McCray. Can I tell you a little bit of story with this one, Dos?
00:04:12
Speaker
Yeah, go ahead. I watch a lot of footy, as you know. And I know footy reasonably well, some would say. Pretty well, yeah. Pretty well. And unfortunately, I had a work trip over the previous round, so round five. Traveling from Alice Springs back up to Darwin. So I was on the road a fair bit for the Saturday and Sunday, so didn't get to see much footy. Oh, no. And had events on Friday.
00:04:42
Speaker
looking for a rookie I was going to bring in and there was a fair bit of talk of Finn McCray and fair bit that he even ran like his brother or half brother and talked about didn't get a lot of it but in the last quarter got sort of released in the mid and had a 32 point quarter.
00:05:03
Speaker
But I'm really big on this. You wait one week and you get someone to pass the eye test. But the problem is I couldn't eye test anyone last week, not a living soul.
Trade Strategies: Risks and Rewards
00:05:15
Speaker
So I had to go off all the talk and the talk was wrong because soon as I saw Finn play, I thought, well, firstly, it's not the best role for him. But secondly, he's sort of not ready. He's going to be a good player, don't get me wrong, but he's sort of not ready and doesn't have that intensity that you need.
00:05:32
Speaker
in a hot game to actually get in a position and score. A little bit good with the hands, but I'd say a poor man's patty-dow. Oh, wow, that's a bit cool. Yeah, so I regret, and I'm here on Saturday, I'm reviewing it, looking at my biostructure. My two trades that I brought in, Finn McRae and Titch, don't really fit my biostructure.
00:05:58
Speaker
Parrish and Dev Robertson would have fit my voice structure. That's tough, tough, yeah. So I actually put them both in. They were there. This is about 15 minutes before the game on Saturday and looked at it again and went, oh, Dev Robbo, he's been in and he's been out. I looked at the injury list.
00:06:22
Speaker
Uh, Barry just had test or one week sort of thing. And I'm thinking, oh, he's going to be at the following week. Well, that cost me 99 points this week. So I'm guessing that's your failed it for the round state. Oh, as well as we get into nailed it, failed it. Yep. That certainly is. But in saying that I don't think he can be too wrong with Tom Mitchell long-term it's actual right. No.
00:06:46
Speaker
Yeah, and just rough on as well for the two Collingwood rookies, Finn McCray and Jay Rantal. I mean, Finn McCray got four center bounces out of 33 according to AFL stats, mate. We haven't got the official numbers yet, but you know, that's bugger role, especially
Reflecting on Decisions: Successes and Failures
00:07:01
Speaker
because he got 10 last week in, I reckon there was less center bounces on available for him.
00:07:05
Speaker
And they're just popping in guys like Josh Thomas, who we just thought, no, he's, you know, he's not going to get that time. Josh Daikos has barely been inside all year. He got 16. So it's, you know, just how are we supposed to say this? We see Rantell, we see McCray, we're like, yeah, they're going to give the youngsters a go. Did not happen.
00:07:21
Speaker
Unfortunately, that's your, one of your failed it's there, but like you said, the process is there. I'm going to get positive before I get into my negative because it's a long negative. And I'm going to go my nailed it, which was Noah Anderson again. He's popped up a couple of times. I'm just enjoying having, usually when you pick these point of differences statesman, they don't always pay off, especially early in the season.
00:07:43
Speaker
later when we have a bit more data and there's a sort of a three round sample we can go on. The point of difference has come off, but Nore Anderson for me so far, it's been sort of a week on, week off thing, but overall he's been a quality player on my side and he's just continually racking him up, got the 120 for me. Something I can actually be happy about this week. What about you Stado? What did you nail this week?
00:08:03
Speaker
Sam Daugherty, low ownership but 126. He's starting to play not such great foot here at times and little moments of the game but at the end of the day he's starting to play the game that gets your points and I solidly see him as a top six defender now at 126. I'm very happy with
Injury Impacts: Locky Neal's Situation
00:08:23
Speaker
that.
00:08:23
Speaker
and actually sitting in an average of 104. And I think he's got 110 for his last three. So that's pretty impressive for mine. Yeah, it's a great pick. He's been there from the start, hasn't really gone under your sort of 90-yard as well.
00:08:41
Speaker
And I do need to ask you the question. You're nailed it. Are you actually putting the sneaky little VC on Noah Anderson? Oh. Against Collingwood. Gee, I might have to. Might be a point of difference vice captain that I've got this week as well. I'll have to think about that. Parrish 150. I haven't got that far ahead, but yeah. Parrish 150. All right.
00:09:03
Speaker
The VC might be on, you might have convinced me there. I might as well. I've got nothing to lose at this point. I failed it. There's about five I could choose. I'm giving Locky near a break because he fought through that injury and still put up an 83 for people that selected him. I know it's a pain in the ass that he's gone out, but he had a pretty bad ankle injury and kept fighting on and at least got the 83 before now he's out for, what, about a couple of months?
00:09:28
Speaker
I'll give him a pass. We need to say, Dawson, you're going to mention the player later on in this podcast, but Dawson was at me all week with this pod and he wanted to bring the pod in. But as I explained, this pod is not going to be in the top rank of his field.
00:09:50
Speaker
and you need to actually pick someone that's actually going to be like Neil in the top eight mids. Lost 200k beautiful price perfect planning
00:10:05
Speaker
rolling off 145, so the break even was reset. You did the right thing, Dossie. So don't let, it's very unlucky, unlucky what happened. But it's the, I know that feels bad because there was a regret. So there was a few messages coming through on my messenger sort of
00:10:27
Speaker
highlighting the point when that other player had surpassed Newell's score. We'll just say it was Shawny Darcy. I talked about him on the podcast last week and I really convinced myself that I was going to go there. The two players that were really hot, I was hot on this week were Dyson Haepel and Shawn Darcy and they both just obliterated Locky Newell's score.
00:10:48
Speaker
That's just the devastating part. It's all hindsight. We've talked about that. That's what fantasy is about. I'm just going to move on. I think I'm more annoyed at holding Caleb Daniel though for a week when he got me the 20. He held him for a week and then he gets me a 50 on return. Chrissy Burgess outscored him sitting on my bench. Chrissy Burgess.
00:11:07
Speaker
or Burgess, however you prefer to pronounce it. But anyway, Stado, we better move on and get to some hot topics for the week. And the big one on fantasy coaches' radars this week is Josh Dunkley, owned by so many coaches. He's been the top scorer up until this round. Somebody surpassed him, but he's been the top scorer in fantasy this year, and now people are going to have to find a trade. He's off to get shoulder surgery after popping it out twice.
00:11:33
Speaker
Yeah, it's shocking luck. But can we say that we should be very thankful that this wasn't a Ridley on 15, a Dusty Martin on 25. He got you the ton. So if you started with him, don't be too annoyed. You got a really good result. I think he averaged 116 by this point of the season. So he's been a ripper pick for you. He's made you a bit of cash and a heap of points.
00:12:00
Speaker
But I feel for those that went danger to Dunkley or moved in Dunkley this week because of his people score chase. So they would have looked at his 151 the week before and thought he's a must have, I need to go.
00:12:16
Speaker
I think this is a really important point to make. Score chasing hardly ever works. So bringing in Zebel after 170 or Dunkley after 150, you just find yourself disappointed when they get nowhere near the mark the following week.
00:12:35
Speaker
And there's a reason why they do. They've had a blinder. It's like going parish now. I'm actually not against it because he's got a midfield role. So he's going to be better scorer than what he is going forward when he plays forward.
00:12:50
Speaker
but you don't actually get that 150 and you spend that extra 50 grand doing so. So Dunkley is a definite out. I think it's about three months best case scenario. So you've just got to look at your structure and see what's best. I know what I end up looking like at the moment and I've got a
00:13:11
Speaker
scoring potential forward line, but I've got a pretty thin forward line now for what I would call premium. So I'm looking now at my forward line and I don't know if anyone finishes there. That's a worry.
00:13:27
Speaker
That is a worry I'm in a very similar situation but I'm sure when we get to listen to questions later on we might go through a few more of the you know significant options that you can maybe consider for Dunkley pending your, it does as statesman said, it just depends on your position and what you can really swing around with DPPs and whatever but
00:13:45
Speaker
Um, I just want to speak to you as well about with the roll change here, we're going to see someone go into Dunkley's minutes. Um, I think it was fantasy Frico pointed out that there was three center bounces straight after Dunkley went down for Bailey Smith, which I think we've both got the same theory here. Bailey Smith goes inside. That leaves a wing wide open. Who averaged 117 on the wing last year? Who could go on a wing?
00:14:11
Speaker
Just the bloke that average basically the most fantasy points last year. I think it was lucky hunting That's available as a forward So I think more on that later by the sounds of things next player on the hot topics dusty Martin concussed Apparently also been hampered by a bit of a foot injury this year is here trade for you now He's gonna miss a week if you're an owner of Dustin Martin, would you be looking to offload? Oh
00:14:37
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Offload. But everyone else that doesn't have him, watch him on his return. You could get Dusty Martin for a sneaky 600K and the second half of the year he absolutely blitz. But if it was concussion and just the one week off, I would keep it. But as we know now, he's had a bit of a foot injury. So that might mean he gets a few more weeks off to get him right. So why not use this opportunity to get
00:15:07
Speaker
Dustin in the right form and focus and fitness for the second half of the year. I like that. We've spoken about Locky Neil already. His return date is unknown, but they've mentioned it could be up to eight weeks. Is that another Cindy? Is it that one?
00:15:24
Speaker
yeah i think it is mate by the sound of it and it looked like it when it actually happened so i was actually surprised he played through because i've seen no one else play through it so give him credit he's had the back issue finally got over that got to his back to his scoring ways oblique a wet night which probably suits the way he plays
00:15:45
Speaker
But that's amazing that if he's had a Cindy and he's played the rest of the game through, so you should be very thankful. He could have had a 24 or whatever it was when it happened. He's done very well for himself. Yeah. Good luck to his recovery. But yeah, we've got to trade him out. The other one I want to talk about in hot topics and maybe could have been the lead story here, but I wanted to draw it out a bit because as you know, I'm not the biggest fan. I've never been the biggest fan of this bloke, just the way he plays his footy. But this season,
00:16:15
Speaker
Jack Zebel, let's have a chat about him. I also want to talk about, he got, he copped a big knee to the upper back, maybe even knocked his head a little bit at the end of the game and missed the last little bit. Was on track for too handy. He got 170. This is Jack Zebel. Stado, what's going on and do we need to get him in and is he the perfect replacement for Josh Dunkley right now?
00:16:42
Speaker
I see I've been as able truth for a long time and actually used to take the piece out of me. And in my job, we'll say it was in draftees and keepers, but he's always been erratic with his scoring. So he's done the old, uh, was it kind of Blakely that had this six week stretch for free? I had this, I think it was the Doc and he rolled a few years ago.
00:17:07
Speaker
I think the trader just called it the role. So he's got that at the moment, but so yeah, score chase 140 then 170. God, it looks bloody beautiful. And yes, we need to find out who those top six forwards are. I think we might've mentioned one before that we can get on the cheap a little bit, but here's my concern here. I'm after being burnt by Zebel so many times.
00:17:38
Speaker
Firstly, if you've got a percentage of 43, are you going to keep doing what you're doing as a club, as a coach, as a structure? Are you going to keep going that way? So that's my first question. Second, if any club needs to stop a player at North Melbourne, who are they going to stop?
00:18:04
Speaker
Then the thing that I just keep coming back to, they're not going to have to. Are they really going to get to a point where they're super competitive at any point in the season? Maybe they go on the Adelaide Crows run at the end of last year, but I don't see it getting to a point where people are going to have to tighten up on Jax Abel. And what coach, I don't think there's going to be a coach that's really going to do that. Oh, there might be.
00:18:28
Speaker
It could happen, but he's got Collingwood in next week. After this week, he's got Collingwood. I think he's got Melbourne this week who he's got quality averages against. Obviously, his averages are from when he used to play midfield and forward and whatever else. But he does like playing that team. Then he's got the pies. It seems an obvious choice, but it's also back to the conundrum of score chasing. But in a guy in this red hot form, he's basically got, I guess,
00:18:56
Speaker
There's been some comparisons to the Shannon Hearn type stuff, but he's like Shannon Hearn in the worst team in the AFL, which I think is a fairly decent comparison just because he has full reign over the kick ins and he's just getting chip marks and they're just trying to maintain possession to avoid getting absolutely spanked every week. So it's such a hard thing to decide. I think I put out a tweet that I'm actually genuine. It is actually one of my genuine concerns.
00:19:24
Speaker
I think that his string is actually a genuine concern, getting too many kicks. It's 170 state, eh? I mean, it might be time. We admit that Jack's even. Just for this season is incredibly relevant.
00:19:41
Speaker
Doss, have you ever been in a relationship where some things are just so right, so enjoyable and perfect, but there's something just in the back of your head is you're waiting for the axe to come from underneath the bed or something like that. There's just something odd, uncomfortable. It just doesn't feel right. That's owning Jack's eagles.
00:20:13
Speaker
It'll be at the point you're going, this is gonna bite me at some stage. Now, whether that's injury, whether that's change of role, whether that he gets clamped down, wow, I could be so wrong here, but yeah, if he was cheap to start with, I would have gone for it. But he wasn't, but he's proved to be very cheap for what he's doing.
00:20:40
Speaker
I just don't know if I can go there with the price rises. What's he up to? He must be getting close to $800,000. Yeah, he's literally just a tick under $799,000 or something. There he goes. He's gone up 64K this week. He's $799,000. Are you willing to pay
00:21:02
Speaker
$800,000 for Jack Zebel. When you can get titch for 30Ks less, you can get Grundy for only 50Ks more. Do you go a pig? How often has he been... He is one this year.
00:21:24
Speaker
I don't know if I can bring myself to do it, but it's one of those things, it's hurting you right now more not having him than it is to be avoiding his potential downfall and not accepting his fantasy greatness right now. It's ugly. He's had three really big scores. Three.
00:21:49
Speaker
So is that enough evidence to say that, yeah, God, his draw looks good. I just looked at it. So yeah, Melbourne might be tough. They're playing really well. Um, but then you've got Collingwood Hawthorne, Essendon St Kilda. Oh my God. Yeah. And then he's got the early buy. So if he's stuffing you around, you can just dump him early.
00:22:14
Speaker
Well, therefore, I can't go in any way because I've got too many round 12 bike. God, I wish I didn't look at that draw. Yep. All right. Well, let's move on. I've had enough talking about him. I'm not the biggest fan, as you know, so I think it's time for us to get to our segments. And the first one's actually a brand new segment. It's Sticking Fat.
00:22:42
Speaker
All right Staceman on sticking fat. We are going to be looking at some players, players out of form or with high break evens, maybe those cash cows as well and supposed premiums that maybe are slowing down out of form. And this is just not including those non-playing players. So guys with the red dots, you know, they're your priority to get out. Like we've been talking about you, Josh Dunkley, your lucky news.
00:23:05
Speaker
et cetera, so get rid of those red dots if you've got premiums like this. This is the guys, more like those luxury trades where if your team's in a pretty good spot or you've got that ability to trade these guys, maybe if you're also looking for league wins rather than your overall ranking as well and you've got that sort of luxury, you're versing in a weak opponent, do your luxury trades now. So this is the sticking fat segment. We're talking about whether to keep them in or shred them thin. Statesman, the first player I wanna talk about, Errol Goulden.
00:23:35
Speaker
495,000 77 break even now that break evens right up there looking like one of the great rookies of all time in his first three games but he slowed down a little bit still putting up pretty respectable rookie numbers but because he had that hot start his his break evens now up there is it time to shred him thin or are you keeping him around for a bit and sticking fat
00:23:59
Speaker
Well, he's going to be my F2 behind Jack Zebul to be honest very soon. But yeah, look, it's a luxury trade and it's a position where you think last week
00:24:15
Speaker
He's only 150k and gives you a Darcy Parish. That's an 80 point bump for 150k. So you're spending basically 20 points to get almost 100 points. So he's at the prime picking. He might also get a rest. So just really keep an eye on selection. He's not the worst to keep.
00:24:40
Speaker
but you need to start making these guys into keepers. So using Warnie's term, it's either up or it's down, but it's the old one up, one down. If you can actually one down who's on the bench and then one up your field rookies, and he's in that prime dollar value. So you look at a
00:25:05
Speaker
Let's look at Locky Hunter. We've quickly talked about him before. You are spending about $165K to get Locky Hunter. So that's a downgrade, a $330K rookie. So just looking at some options. Here we go. Here's a brilliant one. A James Rowe.
00:25:31
Speaker
So James Rowe, you can actually take down a 170 rookie and you've got Errol Gordon up to Locky Hunter. Yep, perfect. Tom Phillips averaging 78 for the season, 72 in his last three. He has a nice schedule coming up with the Saints, West Coast and Roos in his next three. But I reckon we thought if we were going to get something from Tom Phillips, it was going to be this week at Utah's stadium.
00:25:56
Speaker
Easy opponent in Adelaide to score against and he only got the 83 odd. Is that enough? I mean he's a forwards are fairly limited but since since DPP it seems like we've got a lot more Presentable options now, so What do you do if you've got a luxury trader you sticking fat with Tom Phillips or is it time to shred him thin?
00:26:17
Speaker
I'm sticking fat with Tom Phillips, and it's only because he's lower priority. Yes, he had one exception last week, where he scored a 57 or something like that. But every other week, he's just given you an 80. You're not getting a huge amount of what you were hoping for. But at the end of the day, he's giving you a decent score. He's not hurting you. So he's not a Finn McCray. He's not a Patty Dow.
00:26:45
Speaker
I don't know why I use those two words and those two names in the same sentence. So, and he's a green dot. So I just, I would leave Tom Phillips for the time being. I think we were hoping he was a top six forward. He's nowhere near it, but outside Zebel, who is?
00:27:05
Speaker
Braden Campbell 379 K 60 break even played as the sub but he came on pretty early and scored 48 stick fat for bench cover statesman or get rid of him too.
00:27:17
Speaker
Yeah, I never started him. Similar to the Errol Goulden though now, you'd think, probably even more of a priority to get rid of. Yeah, a higher priority. So he's the down one. So he's at 379k. He's a down and looking at an option DPP, look at Frederick for an option. So he's only 200k. You make 179k and then you bring up Goulden up to Locky Hunter.
00:27:47
Speaker
Perfect, Oleg Markov 533,000 with a 72 break even. He does have Collingwood this week though, so I'd say stick fat at least for another week, Sadow. I'll be sticking fat full stop and until you need. So he's quite similar to Tom Phillips, but you're actually making some cash out of this guy. He's been a really good bargain, started at 370. He's up to 533. He's got the ability to score tonnes.
00:28:15
Speaker
And yes, he's a bit of a yo-yo, but I really like what he does, and I think they get really excited when he runs and carries. So I reckon they'll encourage more and more of that, which just means more points for him. So yes, this season's not gonna be the one where you get some real consistency, but I actually think you stick fat with Mark Koff. I actually quite like him. He's really enjoyable to watch. James Jordan.
00:28:45
Speaker
Sorry, Markoff, he's a more enjoyable version to watch than Adam Saad. Yeah, his pace to burn is awesome to watch. He actually does get involved in some chip mark. He does have a little bit of observable thirst late in games. He sort of pushes you over the line a few times to get a few plus sixes, but he is more that
00:29:09
Speaker
He's more the damaging guy. He gets in more damaging positions. So he doesn't always get the cheap stuff, which probably hurts sometimes his ceiling, but he does get off the chain in a, in certain games. So yeah, that's a nice one to hold and stick fat James Jordan, 500, 419 K with a 58 break even he's chugging along there. Stado nothing special, but bit of a low time on ground for two of his last three games. He's had 56% time on ground, which is his lowest.
00:29:36
Speaker
equal last of the season twice in the last two weeks. But he's got the ruse this week. Is he a guy you're looking to go up from though? 419k. See if he can get one more big one for me from the ruse. Take the coin from that and then he's up. He's been a great pick. Unexpected 170k rookie. He might be able to get to 500. I'm going to see if I can stretch him that far.
00:29:59
Speaker
Taylor Walker, 656K. Everyone was jumping on a few weeks ago. I think, gee, Louie and I went back and forth over this one for quite some time and both of us ended up not jumping on. It would have been great to get on early this season. He's already up to 656,000, which is ludicrous. But 83 in his last three, stick fat if you're an owner or if you have the luxury, is it time to walk away? Stado. Oh, man.
00:30:27
Speaker
Could you do me one other favor? Never call any player I actually own in any format as your boy or the thirsty because that has seems to be the tag that destroys careers.
00:30:45
Speaker
The Taylor Walker, my mind right now, with everything else that's going on in the forward issues that we've got, he's a stick fat. Yes, he's dropped about 20 points on average, but 80s from a forward that's in the 600,000 is fine.
00:31:04
Speaker
that's fine for the time being. And also understand that he's had a bit of calf tightness, so that's held him back just a little bit. But he's got another good matchup this week with GWS. It gets a little bit harder after that, but if he gets anywhere near to what he started the season with, and I would assume they wouldn't be getting him to play through unless there was any great issue with his calf,
00:31:33
Speaker
then he'll come back and you'll have another big game or two. So at this stage, you'll be holding until we have a disaster and then you push from there. Caleb Daniel, he's still owned by around 10% of coaches, including myself. 592K, stick fat, or he's only got about a thousand breakeven to his name. Who would have thought Bailey Dale would have affected a man so much? But there you go, he's not even barely taking kick-ins.
00:32:03
Speaker
Caleb Daniel, statement. What do we do here? He's been bevelled. Yeah. He's changed his role. I kept him because you keep your keepers. He's been bevelled. So here's the weird thing. And it was that 20. Oh, God, what a game that was. I did put a good tweet out about that one.
00:32:29
Speaker
But yeah, Caleb Daniel. God, he's such low priority. I'm holding on for one more week because defenders can score really big against Richmond. So Richmond are actually a decent side to score against. So you look at...
00:32:50
Speaker
Who was the Melbourne defender? It's got 130 or so. Christian Salem. Yeah, went massive against him. So I'm holding off one more. See what the injuries, because Ling Zhang started on the halfback line. Would you believe?
00:33:08
Speaker
So I want to see how they structure up. He's not taking kick ins as well. I mean I reckon he took a heap of them last year. This year it's just like I've seen their system it seems like whoever's closest now and it seems like Caleb is more told to get out of there and get to the next link up on the half back kind of wing area to get that next link in the chain.
00:33:31
Speaker
Yeah, it's an ugly role at the moment. We need to see something change there. Hopefully things do switch around, but I'm stick fat too because I've got way too many issues, I hope. And changing it next week if it doesn't pick up. Yeah. Just really quickly, just a few guys here to mention, just say stick fat or shred for these last four here. Aratio Fantasia, stick fat or shred?
00:33:55
Speaker
Well, the way they're gone, stick fat. Lock his shawl. That's just an interesting one. You know, 70 break even, but he's doing pretty all right. Stick fat. Yeah, you'll have his up and down, stick fat. Matt Flynn's just an interesting one. If you've got the luxury again, if you need to dump him to get up to someone, 14 break even, but mummy on his way back, you'd think soon. You just wait and ride that out for the green dots, I'm guessing.
00:34:21
Speaker
Yeah, if he's selected, I'll leave him in the team one more week. If not, he becomes Grundy. Or should I say, Tracy becomes Grundy.
00:34:36
Speaker
And Flynn can just hang on the bench and I'll make some more corn out of him whenever he plays. And final one here, Liam Duggan, just an interesting one. 5% owned, so just enough to talk about. 106 break even, but he's had just one big game against the Pies, which we know how defenders go against the Pies. He's made you some cashback. Do you now cash in and get out and not stick fat with Liam Duggan?
00:35:04
Speaker
Yeah, 5% ono. I'm really surprised to be honest, but I hope that didn't increase after he's 148. And that's why you don't point Chase. But yeah, I think he's not a top sixer, but at the end of the day, he's going to give you 70s and 80s and the occasional 90s. So you can step back with him and try and get more primos onto your ground first. Our next segment, Show Me The Money.
00:35:36
Speaker
Show me the money, Stado. This is our top five rookie candidates based on breakeven and job security and excluding those incredibly high-end guys that have already had their cash rise already. That's sort of getting lower and lower as we go on. But remember to monitor players named later in the week as well. But Statesman, your top five rookies this week, and we sort of went last week, we said under 300,000 as well for these options too.
00:36:01
Speaker
Yes, so many just went over the 300,000 mark, so it actually looking pretty thin, to be honest. So this is who I got, Martin Frederick at number one, 198K defender, Port Adelaide, scored a 70 and really passed the eye test.
00:36:20
Speaker
So Ken really talked up that you're going to see something special, and guess what? We saw something special. It's got a negative five break even. Like Bergman, there's been a few sort of floating in and out on that half back line for Port Adelaide, so be mindful of that. But I think after that performance, you'll get a crack.
00:36:43
Speaker
Our two, Bosom and Alagi, hope I got that right, Bosom and Alagi, 266K Ford from North Melbourne, he's averaging 68 from his two games. I will say I'm a little bit mindful of Aaron Hall coming back.
00:37:06
Speaker
and what the roles may be but I think they're going to back him in. He's got a negative seven breakeven, look pretty good, good link player and another one of those players playing in defence racking up some footy for North Melbourne. Job security as well because he's a young kid playing for North and they're just going to keep playing the kids.
00:37:27
Speaker
Absolutely. And there's something about him. So he's got a bit of pace. Link's up well. Look, the only failing for him is his height. He's just not a not a tall player. So he hasn't got a whole heap of different roles that he can play.
00:37:44
Speaker
Beau McCreary is next, 271k forward for Collingwood, only averaging the 55, but that's not terrible at a lower price break, even a 9. Then it gets very thin, mate, I must admit. Jackson Pryor, 233k defender for Brisbane, only averaging the 47, did kick a nice goal the week before last.
00:38:11
Speaker
break even of three and I sort of Yeah, because there's so many went over the 300 There was a few things tickling my throat like I was going to throw up a little bit when I was writing this one down but Tom Campbell 278 ruck forward for North Melbourne But look you're actually going pretty dry to the bone. Notice I missed two Collingwood players there Yeah, Rantal and Finn McRae
00:38:41
Speaker
Yeah, not convinced they've got any job security whatsoever. Degoi back in the squad next week. A bit concerned there, I suppose. Yeah, I guess keep an eye on them. If they get the green dot though, would you go one or the other? Either, in that fact, if either get the green dot.
00:38:58
Speaker
Not after what I saw. Okay. Uh, quickly with the ones over 300 K, would you be interested in, let's just go the two big break even ones. If you didn't jump on dev Rob earlier, would you go now, especially with locking you injured 313,000 and what's your also opinion on going? These guys, are they too expensive? We spoke last week, Louie doesn't like going anything over 300 K, but if we're this thin, can we consider it?
00:39:22
Speaker
Louis doesn't like. Look, there could be a case. So do you pick a player who's won 74? How much? I do apologize. You go off someone who just scraped over their breakeven, unknown job security, or you get someone that's squared away, might cost you $130,000 more, but you know they're gonna make you more money and they're a green dot.
00:39:50
Speaker
I pay the extra little bit of money because cash generation is king, green dot is king. There's no point collecting people that just end up being a red dot. So was it Kavara last year that sat on most people's benches for about 16 rounds with a red dot?
00:40:08
Speaker
Doesn't do anything for your team doesn't generate your cash doesn't cover people when they're laid out so Yeah at times the right people now I Said no to dev Rob last week regretting it now But that's after locking Neil is down it and he played a good game. It just means his securities there Farah's another one. Yeah, he's the other one
00:40:32
Speaker
He's big. Collingwood this week too. Defenders against Collingwood. He's a defender and he's up against Collingwood. Stado, does that mean just lock and load with a negative seven break even?
00:40:43
Speaker
Yeah, no, it looks pretty good. And I will say, again, I missed that round. So I didn't see him playing the first week. I thought, crap, straight away. But I actually watched him play. He's got some smarts about him. But look, being, what I would say, predominantly a closed down defender, we've got to understand that 30s and 40s are on the cards. All right, really quickly now, another segment for us. It's time to target. Statesman, who do you have this week? Time to target.
00:41:13
Speaker
Yeah, Locky Hunter, he's dropped 204K, still has a break even of 122. So it gives you sort of one week to have a look at the true Dunkley impact. So if we see your boy, which I'll claim that's not a career that you've destroyed in Bailey Smith, going inside, leaving the wing open for Locky Hunter to take,
00:41:41
Speaker
All of a sudden, we are cha-ching. You're talking mid-600s, which is a really cheap buy. As we talked about before, that's two rookies, one down to a low-pricer, the other one up, and all of a sudden, you've got Locky Hunter with a break-even 120.
00:42:01
Speaker
122. Look at it for one week, see what happens. If he has a spike in the score and a spike in the time on the wing, then it's a good one. The other one's still side bottom. So 130 on the weekend to stop that money slide is down to 726 at an average of 94. That's a good buy when he's going upwards
00:42:24
Speaker
And as we know, they've got some issues in the midfield, so he's not going to play that stupid time up on the half-forward line. He's going to be used around the midfield.
00:42:34
Speaker
My time to target, I've got two options. One, if you're more of the risky player, I don't know if it's even called a risky move anymore, but Jack's able, it's just my time to target, especially if you've got the Josh Junkley move. I don't know if there's a more obvious pick just in terms of inform. He hasn't gone below an 80 something, so his floor's great.
00:42:56
Speaker
He's ceiling obviously is enormous this season and he's got some great match ups as we said before he's by in round twelve and the other ones just a premium coming to Just just hitting his straps after an injury interrupt a preseason and that's Jake Lloyd. He's very highly owned already But he's turned up for four straight games and he's still cheap enough. He's dropped still 100k odd from his starting price. So
00:43:18
Speaker
If you don't have Jake Lloyd, it's still a really good time to just buy him. He's with the young kids slowing down a bit as well. He's just taking on a bit more responsibility in the back line, racking up those 30s as he always does. Statesman, another segment on my radar. Colonel, you better take a look at this radar. What is it, son? I don't know, sir.
00:43:38
Speaker
but it looks like a giant box on my radar state. Oh, these are players that maybe we're not picking just yet, but you're keeping an eye on him in the next couple of weeks and you're looking to pick him up soon. My one, first of all, Lockie Whitfield, as soon as he returns, I want every piece of that action. Mitch Duncan. We saw how well he's done. I reckon he's probably the closest comparison to the way Lockie Whitfield plays in the AFL right now.
00:44:07
Speaker
especially just the uncontested marks that those two guys can get and the way that they just move up and down the ground. The new rules, especially those two guys, I reckon might be the ones that benefit the most. They get the uncontested marks already. They're able to use their legs and people want to get them the ball and they run all day long with the extended minutes and less interchange.
00:44:30
Speaker
Locky Whitfield, I'd be, you know, it would be a bold move to chuck him straight in the moment he gets his green dot, but you might even get rewarded straight off the bat. So he's just on my radar. I love Locky Whitfield. She was watching, randomly just switched on an old game. I think it was a, when they had the dogs, GWS come up, I was like, Oh, I might just watch one of the old games, watch Locky Whitfield. He's just such a joy to watch, especially as a fantasy football coach. So he's on my radar. What about you?
00:44:57
Speaker
He's never played well for me. I brought him in the year after last. He exploded. Brought him in. I was there too. Went and watched GWS at home because I was at Bankstown. And went and watched it. I just put the sea on locky and rocked.
00:45:15
Speaker
up at the venue, you beauty. And that was the day you got that injury. Yeah, so got tagged and got injured late in the second quarter. Beautiful stuff. All about about 36. So that's, that's my history with Lockie Whitfield. Him and I just don't see eye to eye. Mine is Dane Zorko.
00:45:36
Speaker
Ooh, yes. So not only a good player and a reasonably good scorer, he's averaging 99, but he's reasonably cheap for his output. He's only 729. My question is, with Lockie Neal out, what's the mix that changes there? And is it Dane Zorko spending a bit more time in the guts? Is that what we're going to see? And are we going to see a return to his best days where we're talking
00:46:05
Speaker
Closer to the 105,110 average. It could happen. That is great to have on your radar because you're just going to have to monitor. There's so many different ways Fagan could go. Is Barry out for a little while now as well? Is that? No. The reason why I didn't go Dev Rob last weekend, it only listed one week.
00:46:27
Speaker
Yeah. So, I mean, you probably have a mixture of Berry in there. They might up McClugage number a little bit. Dev Rob, you'd imagine plugs that hole as well. I just wonder if they do go for the mix or they, cause he, you sort of also want to preserve Zorko for later in the season as well at his age. He is a, he is sort of that in his thirties already. But hey, if they do go that he's been scoring amazing anyway. So keep an eye on that one.
00:46:52
Speaker
Uh, listener questions coming up statesman, but I just want to touch on for this week. We didn't have it for the last couple of weeks. I just want to talk about the point of difference podcasts, point of difference, which is the pod pod pod. And that's our favorite point of difference, point of difference option under 5%. And, uh, I'm going to just touch on two guys here. One is Sean Darcy, who I mentioned last time. Are you on board with, with the Darcy wagon? Because I sort of.
00:47:21
Speaker
I mentioned it actually on the keeper league pod when I was guesting on there a few weeks ago saying he looks like he is in the great shape that we'd been hoping for for so many years. I actually genuinely think he could be a top five ruck this year and with forward status, that might be really good cover if you're a Flynn owner with still putting him on field hoping that he still chugs along and makes you a bit of cash for a little while.
00:47:46
Speaker
I know I do this reasonably regularly, but I don't mean to do it. Do I say how many times you finish in the top 100? Oh, Jesus, they do? That's a bit rough, mate. Well, I've been trying to make this point here for about 18 months now, is stop looking who's going to be in the top five rucks, because how many rucks do you need to really worry about?
00:48:09
Speaker
Fair enough. Two. So what I'm saying here, if you and I do on a pod of the draft doctors, we should be talking about Sean Darcy breaking out. It's brilliant because you need to have 12 to 16 ruckmen that are your ruck ones. Yes, really impressed with
00:48:33
Speaker
he's scoring and I've talked to about him for a long time because his early career mirrored or bettered Brody Grundy. So I was and been a long fan of Sean Darcy but there are two real major issues well three so he's not either of the top two ruckmen that's number one. Secondly he has around 14 by which is the same as Grundy and Gorn
00:49:02
Speaker
So having another bio player in the same round in your ruck. So if you're going to do a pod in the ruck, it should be around 13 rucks. So the best pod ruck is actually Nancurvus. I see. I did mention top five ruck, but I was more meaning he's currently in his last three average, he is a top six forward. So that's where I'm looking at him as a great option as well.
00:49:28
Speaker
He's a top six forward and his last three is averaging 99. He tout up the Adelaide Ruck, Riley O'Brien two weeks ago, had his way with the North Melbourne duo of Goldstein and Campbell. And I think he's just on his way up. So that's my thing. You don't have to bring out the top 100 card every time he statesman. But we'll get to our listener questions. He beat Campbell.
00:49:51
Speaker
He picked Campbell. Get to our listening questions. They're coming up next. But talking of membership for the Kepa League Pod, if you appreciate the work we put in here, bringing you the podcast each week, please consider becoming a member of our podcast sponsor, the Kepa League Pod.
00:50:09
Speaker
In return for becoming a member, members receive AFL fantasy projections, state league fantasy scores, weekly updates of the keeper leagues breakout tracker which they recently updated as well. You get advanced center bounce attendance tables to sort through as well as many other great premium resources for AFL fantasy classic draft and keeper leagues head to keeperleaguepod.com.au
00:50:31
Speaker
or click in the link in the description of your podcast and sign up today. We'll get to our listener question statesman. You can follow us at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter. And now you can find us on Facebook and Instagram. We set all that up this week. So you can find us on those platforms if that's what you prefer.
00:50:50
Speaker
but we just put a tweet out on this one. Rather than just questions, we put out a tweet for players to talk about in AFL fantasy classic. We've got a monster response here statement. So maybe we'll just really quickly go through a number of names here and talk about them. So the first one here from sub dub took Miller. What a point of difference he is. What do you think on took Miller this season in season 2021?
00:51:14
Speaker
Oh look it's just so impressive and I could imagine his ownership is so low and they're the type of gems if you start with, they just set up your season. Look really good player, he's not someone I'm targeting to be honest.
00:51:33
Speaker
And maybe that's me being just a little bit safe, because we know he's played that sort of tagging midfielder role, and he still mixed that reasonably well. But he's just not one I'm sitting there going, yeah, he's a top eight mid. Yeah, understandable. What about Hugh McCleggage from the same sub dub? Hugh McCleggage, my beloved man, McCleggoate, he's actually carving up. And with locking you out, even more reason to enjoy picking the cluggage and enjoy the ride.
00:52:03
Speaker
Yeah, if I owned him, I'd be really, really happy to be honest. Not targeting him, but my God, he's been impressive and I thought he lacked a ceiling. I was so wrong. Darcy Parrish, you spoke about him before. You're saying you're not going to pick him now just based on your structure, but would you encourage others to go ride the Parrish train as well while they can and see these big scores?
00:52:29
Speaker
Yeah, he's cheap enough to be fair, but he's gone up a fair bit in price this week. It's got a break even. I think it's around that sort of 50 mark. So you still make a bit of cash. He still would suit my structure to be fair because it probably that round 13 midfielder would have been important. But we also got to understand he just got 150, but it's against Collingwood. There's a lot of players scoring really big against Collingwood at the moment. So don't expect that week in, week out.
00:52:59
Speaker
And still with that, he's still averaging below 100, understanding the first two weeks were as a forward. But he's only, in the four weeks he's been a midfielder, that's why I was waiting to the Collingwood game, he's only scored one other tonne, that was 117. So he's had an 81 and a 97 as the two other midfield games.
00:53:22
Speaker
Bailey McGlone, that was him as well, wanting to know Darcy Parrish. Just quickly though, he wants to also know about Andy Brayshire and Nat Fife. Any thoughts on those? Andy Brayshire was looking immaculate in there. He's only had two scores where he's done poor, where he got tagged, but that is a concern that the rest of 110 is basically plus.
00:53:40
Speaker
Yeah, having a really big year, but again, because he's performing really well, if a side feels they're in danger of losing the Fremantle, he seems to be the player that they're targeting through the midfield, especially if Fife goes forward. Love Fife as well, he's in the 600s.
00:54:02
Speaker
He's going to be there for a few weeks so he can sort of let it settle down a bit and see how things play out with that midfield because Cher is gone to see if Fife actually spends more time in the midfield which may affect Brayshore's score.
00:54:16
Speaker
But I think the big winner we actually saw last week was Surrong. So Surrong 5 or Brayshore as pods. So if you're looking for a pod from the Pod Pod, why not pick one of those 3-0 boys? I don't think they're going to be bad, but the one I would actually go for would be 5 because of the forward status.
00:54:37
Speaker
This one from T, Tal Hazami, is Zebel worth it over the likes of Treloar and Titch? I think you mentioned you'd prefer the tried and trued in the Titches and the Treloars of the world.
00:54:51
Speaker
Yeah, these are the things. Understand we could be totally wrong, but it feels like somewhere along the line you get disappointed with bringing Zebel in. But my God, if this continues, how wrong are we all going to be? And the winners already got him in his team and had him from round three.
00:55:11
Speaker
We'll smash through another few here. Timothy J, thoughts on Dan Houston. He's had the one injury interrupted score of 32 and three out of the five other games he scored over a hundred and he doesn't see many port games but does he sneak into the midfield sometimes he wants to know as well. Well he has snuck into the midfield. I have to check, I didn't see this week's game but before his injury he was actually, that was a roll change. He went straight back into the guts and was getting massive attendance so
00:55:37
Speaker
I guess one tomorrow. He's a guy that actually, he's kind of like your Jack Crisp though. He in the sense of he can score really well on a back line and sometimes that role actually suits him better. And then he rolls into the midfield and can have a high ceiling as well. So it kind of doesn't matter where Houston plays at this point.
00:55:53
Speaker
And they're the type you target. He's had one down game, the 32, so he prices drop and his break even's high. His price comes down a little bit, that's when you jump on. Great pickup and great pod, great player.
00:56:10
Speaker
Alright, just Alex Thornhill, we've spoke about him briefly, Locky Hunter and Bailey Smith, I think Statesman's probably, what about the Bailey Smith side? We've talked about the Locky Hunter side, what about him moving inside mid? That's looking like what Bevo might do if the end of last game's any indication.
00:56:28
Speaker
Like Caleb Daniel, you need to check who's going to get the roles. You need to look and see. So yes, you might get the greater rewards if you jump right now, but you hop in a very sour basket if you get it wrong. So I'll be viewing that game, Western Bulldogs and Richmond, extremely closely to look at the trends.
00:56:54
Speaker
and I'll be jumping on someone from the Bulldogs very, very soon. All right, and this last one, we'll get to a few more questions. We'll talk about that in a minute, but Kepa League Kays, don't know who this bloke is, wants to talk about Ben Keys, who's averaging 116 in his last three and coming off 156 against the Hawks at Utah's. The Oracle, he wants to know Benny Keys, statesman.
00:57:23
Speaker
I'm going to respond from a quote from Arrested Development. I don't understand the question and I'm not going to answer it. Yep, agreed. OK, thanks everyone for getting those questions in at Pod Pod AFL. More on this in a minute, but we'll be answering a few more questions soon on
00:57:42
Speaker
Another exciting addition on the Point of Difference podcast, but just remember to leave a rating or interview as well. We are targeting 220 ratings, which is an outrageous target by the end of May. I hope you've put your rating in their statesman so that you have a chance at winning the size 11 pair of training worn career savers, which is the Essex Lethal Ultimates signed by all the folks here at Kepa League Pod and the Pod Pod.
00:58:08
Speaker
So yeah, get that in. If you haven't heard more about that, just listen to some previous podcasts, but get those ratings and reviews in for our targets. But I just want to mention this week Statesman, we are going for a second podcast on the Pod Pod, which we'll be having more details on that on Wednesday, but that's our announcement. There's going to be a second podcast this week. You'll be able to hear that on this mainstream and then we'll
00:58:34
Speaker
Let you know more details about that Coming up, but that's gonna be with the mighty Statesman and we're glad to have you on board the point of difference podcast Statesman. So welcome aboard Absolute pleasure is great to be on the pop All right, we'll see you guys on Wednesday