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STRATEGY POD feat. JD (FTTV) | The Holmes Files Ep. 3
4.4k Plays10 months ago
Two-time top 10 AFL Fantasy finisher and 2021 Runner-Up Kyle "Holmesy" Holmes continues his one-on-one interview series with members of the AFL Fantasy community.
In this episode, Holmesy is joined by Jackson Davey – better known as JD in the AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach community – to have a good old-fashioned strategy discussion!
JD is not only a content creator with Fantasy Take TV (FTTV), but he also has some serious fantasy credentials. After converting from SuperCoach to AFL Fantasy just two seasons ago, he’s already won back-to-back hats in the AFL Fantasy format, and most recently finished 6th in the inaugural Offical AFLW Fantasy season.
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Transcript
Introduction to The Holmes Files and special guest JD
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmsey here for another edition of The Holmes Files. And I've picked out another special guest here, which I'm actually super excited to talk about. He's someone that you might not have heard too much in the fantasy community, maybe a little bit recently, but he's generally been a supercoacher, but he's come across and he's just decided to just dominate everything. So I thought, what better man to really crack into how we attack this season? And that's JD from Fantasy Take TV.
JD's Fantasy League Background and Success
00:00:45
Speaker
Is that right? FTTV.
00:00:46
Speaker
Yep, that's right. Yeah, most people stuff that up, add an extra F in, so you nailed it in one. Yeah, awesome. So for those of you that don't know, JD's come across from Super Coach for the last two years and he's actually gone back to back caps, which is only really done by the absolute elite. So clearly he knows what he's doing, but why don't you just introduce yourself and give us a little bit of your fantasy background.
00:01:08
Speaker
Yeah, yes, spot on. So I've been a Super Coach content creator for a little while, and I've mainly played Super Coach in the lead up to two years ago. And then, you know, we'd always had great respect for Selby and what he did and listened to a bit of him here and there. And then when it when we found it, it was coming over to Super Coach, I thought, you know what, I should actually go to fantasy and see if I can apply Super Coach to fantasy and see how it goes, as well as maybe hopefully learn a little bit what
00:01:38
Speaker
has made him successful in that format and then be able to apply it back to Super Coach as well. So yeah, I started playing fantasy two years ago. As you mentioned, I kind of went back to bat hats and I did AFLW for the inaugural official season and finished sixth in that as well. So I've had a pretty good run so far. Maybe it's just beginners luck. We'll see how we go with this year.
00:01:58
Speaker
Yeah, look, I don't think it's beginners luck, mate. Anyone can have a really, really good season where it all comes together and find yourself up the top of the ranks.
Strategies and Philosophies in Fantasy Leagues
00:02:08
Speaker
But the fact that you've done it twice, clearly, I wouldn't have thought you would have had that much luck. So you clearly know what you're doing. And why I really wanted to get you on here today is that
00:02:18
Speaker
I've listened to a little bit of your content recently and listened to your philosophies and how you build a squad. And there's very similar sentiments, but then there's also some stuff that you kind of see a little bit differently than I do. And that's what I'm really, really keen to dive into because the fact that you've done it twice in a row, I know Matty Motrum did it twice in a row as well. And he kind of sees it the same way that maybe you guys have cracked a little bit of a slightly different blueprint on how to play the game, especially early.
00:02:46
Speaker
I know that when I've gone well in the past and Shelby's gone well in the past and even Ahami, it's all been that we've come charging home late after the buyers, but you guys have found yourself quite high up in the rankings early and you've managed to maintain that. So why don't you just dive into your starting squad philosophies a little bit, maybe just start with last year and how you kind of went about it and then we'll kind of dive into how you plan to bring that over this year.
00:03:11
Speaker
Yeah, so I might actually start with two years ago. It's my first season and I didn't actually look at fantasy or preseason. I just did Supercoach like I normally did and George who runs Fantasy Take TV convinced me to throw on a fantasy side and I decided to start a bad Supercoach side or at least in my mind what a bad Supercoach side look like. So I basically took on all the players that were
00:03:32
Speaker
one step too risky for me to play in Supercoach with the limited trades. You don't want to take these guys on. And that ended up being a pretty good team that year. It nailed a lot of the mid prices like Will Brody and I can't remember who else there was, but there was a ton that year and they kind of all seemed to hit in 2022. So like wits and stuff as well. I think there's a few like that that just kind of went gamebusters. So 2023, I took it a little bit more seriously, but I think I kind of had the blueprint from that, which is
00:04:03
Speaker
Research like I would for Super Coach, which tends to be more conservative. You're looking for people that not only have upside, but will be there for the full year and then kind of just amp up the risk a little bit and put a little bit more of that into fantasy. And it seemed to work for a second year in a row and we'll try for a third year now.
00:04:21
Speaker
I feel like I'm getting riskier and riskier each year though I'm like taking more off the top and putting it more into mid prices and those speculative breakouts which I think it can definitely be a recipe for disaster if too many of them go backwards.
Building a Fantasy Team: Categories and Cash Generation
00:04:35
Speaker
Yeah, so let's just define the players a little bit here because there's different categories of players. So we've clearly got the Uber Elite guys that are right at the top of the tree but don't necessarily present any value. You've then got your underpriced premiums that in your all lines that are
00:04:51
Speaker
underpriced from what they can do, but we expect them to maybe have, you know, five to 10 points upside and be essentially top six to 10 in their line. And then you've got your mid prices. So traditionally, mid prices, you're looking for that sort of 20 to 25 points upside, but they're not necessarily keepers. They're there just to flip. And then you've got the mid prices. You say, like, years gone by, you will, Brody's. I think we had an Isaac coming and Nick Hein that
00:05:18
Speaker
You know, we picked as mid prices, but they ended up being almost keepers for us. And those are what we call those smash picks or, you know, the competition picks in it. Traditionally, when I've sort of built my side, I wasn't willing to take on any mid prices unless I saw the potential for them to be keepers. But it seems like you're more than happy to start more of these mid price guys that maybe have, you know, 15 to 25 points upside knowing that there's more trades in AFL fantasy. And if it does all go right, you're happy to just flip, flip, flip and just make the cash.
00:05:48
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, it's I mean, for me, I think about it as just generating as much cash or as much value as you can early on. And so I tend not to pay for anyone that I think is fairly priced. So like, for example, someone like a Bontempelli, I haven't really considered at all. Last year, there were a fair few guys like that, like Docherty, I had no interest in, which I think ended up paying off not starting him, but then I traded him in just before he got injured. So
00:06:17
Speaker
But yeah, so I'm happy to take on those guys. I tend not to think in terms of how many keepers I'm trying to start. Like I haven't counted at once for fantasy. It's a really bad Supercoach habit where we look at
00:06:29
Speaker
having at least 12, maybe 13 primos or keepers that you've got for the full year. I don't think it really helps in fantasy. You do have enough trades that you end up being able to effectively turn over your whole team if you want to. I'm just trying to find the guys that I think present the most upside. That led to starting, for example, Jaden Hunt last year, which was
00:06:49
Speaker
like a very unique pick I think over most because yeah like I never saw him as potentially being a keeper but I thought he could provide good points on field, great job security and there was a fair bit of cash upside. Now he well outperformed even my expectations but if you you know have the right mix of those guys and you're trying to pick the best ones you can end up finding that really smash pick and of course you get duds as well or you get off guys too early like I traded Warple before
00:07:17
Speaker
what the will day suspension and then he really popped off like I got rid of him too early. I got rid of Ashcroft too early as well. So, you know, there's definitely stuff like that that can happen. But yeah, I'm looking at all price points and just trying to find the guys that I think have the most value in them and just load up on as many as those as I can. For the premiums or more top end, yeah, I'm trying to find under price premiums as well.
00:07:41
Speaker
All those top end guys that I'm putting in my side, I want to see like a few points upside at least, hopefully more like five or 10, but that's what I'm trying to get. Like, yeah, everyone, everyone should be generating cash. I don't want, I don't want anyone fair value. They go backwards. I can pick them up later. There's only downside risk in those types of picks.
00:07:59
Speaker
Do you have like a, so for these mid prices that you're looking at, and maybe it's a little bit different this year with the forwards considering the lack of options that we have, but do you have a general rule of what you're trying to get? Like a, you know, even if it's just a 15 point upside from these mid prices, or do you look for more where? Yeah. Explain that for us. Yeah. So there's a couple of really handy tools, especially like you've got, um, uh, Jaden Papowski is like worthwhile averages and that's always a good,
00:08:26
Speaker
number to check, like how many points do they need to be to be like that smash pick that you're talking about, someone that you would almost they become like season defining picks. So I think that's always a good point of reference. That is, of course, on the extreme end, like they become the absolute competition picks and you don't need to have a team full of those to do really well. So this is a really interesting one in Super Coach. It's like 35 points is what you look for. And that's tied to how much money they have to go up.
00:08:56
Speaker
to be worthwhile or to be the equivalent of like what you could generate a cash out of a rookie. I think in fantasy that numbers less because you've got more trades. So yeah, like it depends.
Rookie and Mid-Price Player Strategies
00:09:08
Speaker
Like maybe it's better if we speak to examples of like players that you had in mind.
00:09:15
Speaker
For me, it's like often it's just, yeah, who I think has the most upside for them. And then I'm comparing that to rookies. Like, could I get as much upside or better upside from rookies? And if the answer is yes, then maybe I should just be going rookie in a premium. But yeah, the other thing is like,
00:09:33
Speaker
I mean, there's two other parts here. So one, rookies define your structure. A lot of people say that. And so if you've got lots of good rookies and I'm probably going to go away from having more mid prices, it's just, you know, makes sense. That's where the extra money can be generated. And, um, I think it also comes on like how you assess mid prices as well. Um, because I find a lot of the reason why people have been put off them is I don't necessarily look for the ones that are likely to provide real good upside. I think.
00:10:02
Speaker
Once you start analyzing where the breakout performances come from, there's patterns and trends you can pick up on that make them easier to select. Which, yeah, I think maybe that has been a little bit of an advantage in that. Not really sure. Yeah. The thing that's really good about the mid prices at the moment, and I'm thinking maybe over the last couple of years as this sub rules come in and it's been harder for our rookies to play consistent games without, you know, copying a red vest or a rest here and there.
00:10:30
Speaker
You know, we have this number in the fantasy community, especially in AF, that a rookie is going to score 60 points. But if you have a look at it, like 60 is actually more on the top end. Like you have your daycosses and your sheasles that are so far above everyone else, it's ridiculous. But I'm pretty sure I looked at the numbers last night and there was only four or five rookies for the year that actually averaged above 60. So it's not actually a mark that many rookies get to.
00:10:53
Speaker
They do have their sub-vested games in there that affect it, but unfortunately that's part of the risk of playing a rookie. If you're going to get 20-25 from the mid-pricer, maybe you might get that from a rookie, but if they're being vested all the time or they have their scores, then maybe the mid-price option is the way to go. Would you agree with that?
00:11:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's spot on. One of the things I found looking at my team versus maybe other teams last couple of years, I do send 10 to start less first year players. So where maybe I see like six, even seven, like, you know, basement kind of price or first year rookies, I'm starting like three, four or five.
00:11:35
Speaker
And you know, it's really just picking out the ones that I'm sure will have really good scoring and throw everyone else on the bench because I can find mid prices that tend to have as much value in them and they'll score more points throughout the year. So yeah, like balancing the side out that way has worked really well. It's interesting this year, like it's going to change again.
00:11:53
Speaker
mentioned the sub rule, right? It's going to be even worse now that the sub doesn't have to be named until what now beforehand. We're going to get caught holding onto rookies that we probably should have traded because they're going to end up being subs and all that type of stuff. So yeah, like definitely some worrying stuff that's going on this year. So if you're looking at more of a squad mentality and making sure that
00:12:15
Speaker
all of your players are going to go up in value, which we all are. There's always been that sentiment that if you can get that 200k rookie on the bench, you're obviously going to have more money to then spend on field for your players scoring, but you're more than happy to pay up on the bench because
00:12:31
Speaker
You know, these often these 200K rookies are either first year players or players that have been in and out of the team over the years and they might not have the job security or the scoring to go up. So you're more than happy to pay up for someone with a little bit more job security so that they're going to be there for the long run if you take a hit on field.
00:12:48
Speaker
Yeah, totally. Just think about how many rookies we had last year even that were around that 200K range and just turned out to be really poor options that a lot of us started with. I think Davey was one of those.
00:13:02
Speaker
Constable ended up not being great, although it was a bit more expensive to start with. And I think there was at least one or two more like that as well that just get stuck on your bent. If you're running more mid prices, you have less of these bad rookies. Like you just don't start them where they become the 29th and 30th player for someone else. So yes, they have slightly more points on field to begin with because they've freed up that cash that I may have spent an extra 30, 40, 50K on a rookie. But the more expensive rookie ends up creating a lot more cash and then you catch up the points and then some of the year goes on.
00:13:31
Speaker
So would there be a number like an arbitrary number that you would be, you know, feeling a little bit uncomfortable spending on the bench? Like would you put someone over 300 K on your bench? Uh, so it's a good question this year with the rucks, uh, with what's sweet and is it Conway's his name? Um, yeah, I think like 300 K is, is probably the mark where you're pushing it because if you're spending that much on them, I guess the question is like, why wouldn't you put them on the field? Cause I think you start getting to the point where for their, um,
00:14:01
Speaker
the cash they generate at their price to make sense.
00:14:04
Speaker
they'd be scoring well enough that you'd have them on field anyway rather than on your bench. So I think as you push over that 300K market makes less and less sense with the exception of that probably being the R3 position because it's not like there are alternatives to suite. So I'm willing to start him even though he's close to 400K if he's R1 just because he will well outperform that. And yes, the points are stuck on the bench, but in a year where he might be doing a little bit of buy cover for you, I think that ends up making sense. But yeah, beyond that,
00:14:31
Speaker
300K is probably about the line that you start to draw. Yeah. Well, the reason I sort of ask is I actually want to, well, it's a good segue into the defenders and how we're structuring up it.
00:14:42
Speaker
I'm actually not seeing many rookies at the moment, given there haven't been any pre-season games, but I'm not seeing many rookies that we're going to be comfortable selecting in our sports this year. You've got a Dan Curtin who has had a pre-season injury. He's battling knee soreness. I saw somewhere today that he was in the Bs for the first half of Match Sim and then came on for the A's in the second, but he's coming from a long way back. In terms of his fitness at the moment, you've got maybe a Josh Gibgis,
00:15:09
Speaker
Abba who knows what he's going to be like you know playing a lockdown role for Richmond. No there's you know word of a Toby King potentially but I can't say him being a big scorer for North.
00:15:19
Speaker
And outside of that, you know, you might get a Zach Reed, you might get a Mullen who might, you know, get some games you don't really know. But if these rookies aren't here to pick, then, you know, what's to say that we don't potentially pay up for a coffee field at D6 and then maybe a Marty Horro at D7 because the other rookies that are available aren't going to be scorers or there aren't even rookies available to pick?
00:15:40
Speaker
Yeah, I think spot on. I mean, if there's ever to be a year where you paid up for the 300K type rookies anywhere, like a Hort D7, I think it would be this year, especially if you're running early by players, like everyone's going to have Williams, he's at round two. I think there is probably more opportunity to do that.
00:15:56
Speaker
than in previous years. I tend to avoid running the defender rookies anyway, at least in fantasy, in Super Coach, it's a little bit different. But guys like Gibkus, Reid, these key defenders just don't score particularly well anyway. So the upside isn't great, even though their job security may be okay. So you can kind of hang on to them and hope they have a spike game in this. But yeah, they're the types I tend to shy away from anyway. And, you know, I would
00:16:23
Speaker
I'd struggle to see a side that I go into this year that doesn't have like a cofield at D6. Um, like I would not be comfortable fielding Curtin, Gibcis, Reed, maybe even whore, like maybe. Uh, so yeah, like I think you're spot on, like I'm, I'm, I'm, there's a lot of value in defense, but I wouldn't be looking for the rookies to be, um, generating it this year. Also, is that, is that where, is that where you're at as well?
00:16:49
Speaker
Well, I currently have Horat d6 because I have that same sort of sentiment that if you're going to be paying 306k for him and I actually think his scoring will be quite good. That's not the issue. So if you're paying that kind of money, you kind of do want him on field. But every year, I get stuck with these defender rookies on my bench that don't score, that don't make any cash.
00:17:12
Speaker
Yeah, just trying to have that squad mentality that you talk about where you need to try and generate as much cash as possible. Maybe it is taking a bit of a hit with a Marty Horan having him at D7 and only running one other rookie because, yeah, the rookies just aren't there to pick.
00:17:25
Speaker
Yeah, it's a really interesting one. I'm not sure Haw is best 22, to be honest. I think there's a good chance he misses, or at least he's fringe, which makes it tricky as well. Like, who are the other guys that are... I mean, I guess you've got, like, Blank from Hawks, who's like 220K. He'll have good job security for no scoring. You've got Ulland from Gold Coast, who was a failed rookie for some of us last year. He's 220K as well. I think there's a pretty good chance he plays games. But yeah, like,
00:17:54
Speaker
None of these really appeal, do they? Yeah. Look, it's, it's impossible to tell without seeing any preseason games, but I think they probably do have a role in mind for
Defense and Midfield Structuring Tactics
00:18:03
Speaker
Hall. I think Hibbert has just retired and we all know what's going on with their midfield. And if there's ever going to be a, you know, our first six games where, you know, a bracial has to go into the midfield or, you know, someone like a rivers has to chop out a bit and that opens up a spot back there. I think that probably is the, the goal.
00:18:20
Speaker
AFL clubs don't really throw lifelines to these players at 27, 28 years old. If they don't have a role for him, you look at a Corey Wagner last year for Frio, he got games mid-year, but I think he was in line for a debut early, but he had a bit of a pre-season setback and then found himself on the outer. So yeah, there could be a role there for him, but you're right. We won't know until any of the pre-season games, but it's a bit of a tough one.
00:18:44
Speaker
Yeah, no, I mean, I think if he does get games or he's, he's definitely one that should have the scoring potential. The other one that's interesting, is it, um, Kaluri for Port that is potentially trying out for that wing spot to replace Dursmar? I think he's around 300K as well. Um, that's the other one that could end up being that D6, D7 option.
00:19:02
Speaker
Yeah, well, Louis on pod pod is that he's our port man who's been going out of training. See, he says he's nowhere near and yeah, it's good, good Intel. He couldn't crack a game in defense last year when they didn't have any defenders and now they've gone out and recruited a sovereign and BZT. So I think he's going to he's going to struggle a bit. But let's let's keep talking about these defenders. So how are you kind of looking to structure up in defense at the moment? Because the way I'm kind of looking at it is the a lot of the top end premiums are either fairly priced or
00:19:32
Speaker
overpriced and even the ones that potentially have a little bit of value, say like a Locky Whitfield, Jayden Short, even potentially have a buy. So how are we looking to navigate this?
00:19:42
Speaker
Yeah, so I mean, let's just get it out of the way. Everyone, like Hayden Young first picked, just locked him away. Pretty easy. Goodbye, under price, going to the midfield. Love that. Yeah, of the top price guys, I totally agree. I guess Sheezer was the one that was kind of a little bit interesting early, just because if you had the same role as last year, without Zebel, without Hall, with other young guys around, like you could see him probably push that a little bit further, and once again had a better buy than some of these others, but that doesn't sound like it's going to be the case.
00:20:09
Speaker
Um, so of the other top guys, I guess Stuart is one that, you know, potentially presents a little bit of value just because he had that knee injury early last year. Uh, like, eh, eh, I think that fixtures good early as well. That's probably the one, um, around that top end that I'm.
00:20:27
Speaker
Like I'd consider the other one for me is day costs. I do think he's under priced still. Um, so I think he's someone that, uh, could go like, yeah, much bigger. He's going to be D1. He does have the buy, but I don't know. That's the one that I'm like, I've had in my teams more often than not. So, uh, if it's, yeah, Hayden young is my D1 at the moment, but if I don't end up with him at D1, it'll be day costs.
00:20:57
Speaker
potentially Stuart. But almost everyone else, I don't really see much upside, so I'm not that excited for them. Whitfield is probably one of those ones that's more interesting. It's just hard to buy into that with a very early buy. So you said that day cost has been in a lot of your teams. You're happy to start in with the potential Finn McGinnis tag into a buy, into a potential Willam Drew tag. All potential, obviously. But you'd be happy to wear that.
00:21:26
Speaker
Uh, yeah, there's a lot of, a lot of potential tags, right? Um, yeah, I mean, they got us last year, right? We all didn't, or not all of us, but I started him last year. I didn't start him because of he got tagged in the pre-season and we all thought that it was going to eventuate, which it didn't. But I think the proof's in the pudding that the last two times that Hawthorne have played Collingwood, that, uh, Finn McGinnis has tagged Acos and it, it resulted in a win for Hawthorne over the, the, the premiers last year. So you would think that's going to happen.
00:21:56
Speaker
Yep, I think there's a very good chance it does happen. I'm still not sure if that means it not starting into the right move.
00:22:05
Speaker
Yeah, because what the assumption is, so he gets tagged, has the buy, then he drops two more weeks, probably, you know, you're hoping I get support, tag him as well. You pick him up, what, before Essendon or before Carlton, which is like in the right upgrade time of year, you just have to hope that you've, like, can get to him with where he's priced at, which I mean, if he gets tagged twice, you will easy. Like, yeah, I mean, I'm okay to not start him. I think it's a line ball call. It's, for me, the interesting thing is like,
00:22:35
Speaker
If he goes, I don't know, say 130, 130 first two games, which is not out of possibility for day cost. Like what do you do? Do you just hold tight and wait for the Fin tag? If Fin doesn't tag, like, is it just season over? Yeah, well, that's, that's the thing. And to be honest, it's, it's a bit of a cheat code, but we're going to get that look in round zero. And they played GWS in round zero, I believe, which
00:23:01
Speaker
who knows what they're going to do there. But then they do play Sydney in round one, which is super interesting to me as well, because Sydney have actually tagged in the last three times they played. And that included, I'm pretty sure, either in his first year. So
00:23:13
Speaker
Ryan Clark's gone now, so that potentially might not happen, but Sydney are a pretty tough matchup as it is, but it's such a line ball call. If he does go 130-130, is he really going to be that much more out of reach than to start? I know you're starting him, so it's easier to start him.
00:23:35
Speaker
No, look, it's possibly still in range. The Sydney one's actually really interesting as well with Adam's coming across as well because you think he'd bring Intel in terms of what Collingwood would do in the event of a tag or like how they've been kind of like learning to mitigate it over the time and whether or not they actually worry about it. Like do they see tagging daycourses being detrimental?
00:23:55
Speaker
to their side or not, or like whether they're happy to wear it. So yeah, like Sydney is an interesting one as like a blueprint. I don't know, I can, yeah, as I said, Hayden Young's my D1 at the moment. So like I'm fine with people not starting him. I consider the reason to start him though, like just cause I am fairly sure he's averaging more like a 115 plus for the year this year. And he's priced at 109, like sorry, the upside is there, but yes, like with timing, it may end up working better just to wait.
00:24:24
Speaker
Yeah, look, we all know that he's going to be more than likely D1 given an injury.
00:24:31
Speaker
It's just, yeah, so tough. So tough. And to be honest, it could, it could define how coaches go this year. So it's super interesting. All right. So you've got Hayden Young at day one and you, you said that you don't typically like to start rookies on field in defense, which means you must have a few mid prices floating around. So what are you, what are you looking at with the mid price defenders? This will change between now and round one. I do not expect all these guys to survive, but what I tend to do is, um,
00:24:56
Speaker
There's lots of mid prices that are potentially interesting. Like when we start at the preseason, we don't know much about the rookies. As the preseason evolves, I start to like strike these guys out. Once you start finding it, they don't have the role or they're not going to live up to expectations and you start hearing about the good rookies and you start bringing them in. So I expect this to change. But like Elliott Yower's D2 has been for a while. I know there's debate over this, but yes, once again, he's very underpriced for what he can produce.
00:25:22
Speaker
going to be full-time mid. If he survives like a full pre-season, which is what we've heard so far, he will crush that price pretty easily. And if you're not starting a day cost, then someone like a yo is exactly probably how you get there. He could quite easily make 200, 250K and end up being the stepping stone once he eventually does get injured, which is probably more likely to happen than not, I would say. Yeah. And I got
00:25:47
Speaker
grilled in all of my group chats for this, but I picked Yo in my first edition of my team and he's essentially been there pretty much ever since. People are all scared off, but these are the type of players that you need to pick to be successful in fantasy and if you're chasing a high rank.
00:26:05
Speaker
It's high risk high reward, but you know with all reports the way he's training as a full-time mitten He's been healthy so far this preseason I think people would be crazy to just stripe him off their list because of what's happened over the last couple of years So I really like that we don't need to talk about a Zach Williams too much We all know that if he's fit and healthy he's playing round zero round one We pretty much need to have a look and pick him I think that's been pretty much a no-brainer, but who else are you looking at?
00:26:31
Speaker
Yeah, so we mentioned William Sussing at D5 for me and then Coughfield at D6. At three, I have Conor Puduric. That's loose, but yeah, yeah, that's fair enough. Well, with the talk that he's getting the shorty role, if you look into his draft profile, you can kind of see why, both in terms of like build and height, but also where his skills lie. I could see why Hardwick kind of identifies him as that type. I always worry about picking a half back in a team that plays in
00:27:01
Speaker
Incredibly like jewie conditions but yea boaterick has what had now two injured pre-season or like and these pre-season have been good either. Once again i think someone like well that forms price if he gets that role but if we are gonna get to preview this for free around zero if he's not the main distributor out of that side of you.
00:27:20
Speaker
know, flipping him away pretty quickly. And that's the type of one that, you know, may end up going to like a steward or something like that. And then the other one in there is Heath Chapman as well. So yeah, obviously conjecture over whether he gets a half back roll, a wing roll and what he will score in those. But I'm happy to wait and see for the preseason. Once again, I think someone that's got, you know, probably at least 200K upside depending on the roll that he gets.
00:27:44
Speaker
Yeah, beautiful. So for someone like me, that generally doesn't start more than three to four mid prices. You've got five in your defense. So it's, uh, Oh yeah, I guess so. It depends. I mean, basically rookie price 350 is so cheap. I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah. True. And yo, yo, you're not really picking as a mid price. So you are, but he, if all goes well, you're hoping he's an under priced premium. So.
00:28:04
Speaker
Yeah. I think he goes either way. If he's fit, he scores well enough to either be a keeper or by the time he breaks down, you've made enough cash that it ends up being worth it. For me, it's the only real bad outcome is he gets injured in the first game or two probably pretty early on and you get a 10 on field. If I get beat by that, so be it. It's just unlucky it happens.
00:28:31
Speaker
Yep, fair enough. Let's move into the midfield now. Another interesting line, especially because of how we're spending down in the forward lines. We have a bit more cash this year to splash in the midfield with the rucks as well.
Ruck Strategy and Player Value Considerations
00:28:44
Speaker
So how are you kind of seeing the midfield and how that's lining up?
00:28:47
Speaker
I am six deep in the midfield at the moment and then two rookies. I guess the thing that most people have gotten onto as well is they're not really that much true mid price value in the midfield. There's under priced premium guys, which I'm happy to take on and have a look at, but really the only guys sub 700K that are interesting are
00:29:07
Speaker
Sheldrick if he gets a role which sounds unlikely given Adams and Jordan coming into the team this year and Wardlaw. You know he's I guess a little bit hard to predict given he got managed pretty heavily last year when he did play just due to his injury concerns. So yeah between his like history so far, the fact he's on the second year, how they manage his time on ground like
00:29:28
Speaker
he's going to be a gun, but yeah, I just don't, don't necessarily love it this year when I think we probably need to take risks in other lines. So yeah, midfielders where we're paying up for now. Like what's your structure at the moment? I saw a, what was it? Fantasy nut kind of tweet out asking people what their structures were. And I like saw almost no one with my structure. So I'm like, Oh, maybe I'm well off the mark this year. I don't really know. Yeah. So at the moment I currently have one player priced above one
00:29:58
Speaker
100. One price above 100. And then I've got, I think it's two or three between 100 and 85. And then I've got two down below that. So I've got two of your... Yeah, so I've got wines and I've got Matt Crouch at the moment just sitting there around that sort of price point. And then I'm looking at a Jack Steel
00:30:21
Speaker
So what's that two, two, one, but I've got, oh, I know. And another one, I think it's a took Miller at the moment. I'm kind of toying around with trying to have someone in that spot that I can potentially flick to Walsh. Um, if, if Walsh goes well, round zero, I still think Walsh is pretty undervalued for what he could produce, but I'm still trying to work through how that plays out. Cause I, I'm a little bit worried. I know you need to be aggressive, but I don't want to be caught in a trap in round three, where I've got a few injuries that I need to fix. And I've also got a premium there who's on a buy. I think that could be in a bit of trouble, but
00:30:50
Speaker
If it all pays off, it could go well as well. So how are you structuring up?
00:30:54
Speaker
Mate, just let the premium sit the buy. It's fine. It's one week in best 18. It's not a big deal. People worry about that way too much. So the 100 average mark is 900K, if memory serves me right. Yeah. So I've got one player above 900. Everyone else below that point. And yeah, as I mentioned, I like taking on the top price guys and trying to find those under price ones. So I'm structured up that we've got one over 900K, which is Brayshore.
00:31:23
Speaker
still like him as a pick just given that he started slow last year with that injury came home pretty strong I guess some concern with Fife and Young coming into the midfield what the net effect of that is but yeah I think he should be pretty solid and ends up being a captain vice-captain option each week and then I've got
00:31:41
Speaker
uh, what three kind of just around that sub 100 mark in butters, LDU and steel. Um, I have enough cash sitting in the bank, like a fair bit that that steel has been day cost at times. I don't actually mind starting him in the midfield necessarily depending on how, um, teams work out. But, uh, yeah, like butters, similar story to bracial started off slowly with injury concerns, but then came home very strong, great buy.
00:32:05
Speaker
uh ldu once again like injury concerns but when he was on the park will will that perform that average and then steal exactly the same thing kind of a bit of a theme with these underpriced premiums that they tend to have had some type of small injury or niggle that adds some free value into the side and then if you can see improvement beyond that
00:32:22
Speaker
Even better like North should improve as a side compared to how they were last year, which should help LDU Steal plays for the Saints which I think was the second lowest stoppage side behind Essendon last year There's probably not going to go backwards on that stat and if they start getting more stoppages, that's good for someone like him and then I've got two of the 700 K guys in Nick Martin and Matt Crouch so like I'd
00:32:50
Speaker
I believe, I've had Nick Martin for a while and was starting to see some of the reports, but I believe Essendon's going to put him into the day cost light role, just try and run all of the, not all of it, but
00:33:02
Speaker
try and actually run rebound through him. If you watched Essendon last year, very slow in terms of moving the ball out of half back and ended up playing a lot of possession footy as a result because they're getting stuck in opposition zone. Nick Martin is one of the ones that could actually, like, has the foot skills to kind of break through that and the creativity to do so. So I can see them
00:33:25
Speaker
effectively trying to create that architect type player that a lot of the other top teams are using at the moment, including getting some of the kick-ins. I know they've got like Ridley and stuff who's a very neat kick as well, but not as explosive or creative coming out of defense. So in that possession style, he's great. But if you're trying to actually be creative out of the back line, I think someone like Martin could
00:33:51
Speaker
quite easily end up averaging 105, which is what plus 20 points on where he's at at the moment. And then he ends up being a top two or three defender at come end of the year. I know it's very optimistic, but yeah, bullish on Nick Martin at the moment. And then Matt Crouch, I think most people know about Crouch. And when he's at his best, he can, you know,
00:34:09
Speaker
probably do a one of five for what is priced out as well so some really good value there even though I don't anticipate him being a top eight mid by the end of the year he's potentially someone that you could flip out of during the second set of buys just give me the crows are on the last by so it's kind of like that luxury sideways at the end that you could you could.
00:34:28
Speaker
I see self doing with someone like a crouch and i think the nice thing as well with some of these guys is if they don't do well early as you mentioned walsh has that early by green has early by and these are two plays i would absolutely start if they didn't have buys so i'm pretty comfortable correcting to them early if i need to.
00:34:46
Speaker
Yeah, are there any other players in that sort of low 90s average to mid 80s average that you've been considering? So you've got, you know, Carl Eamonn that's been a bit of a buzz pretty much for that same role that they're looking for. Nick Martin, you know, you've got Ollie Wines from all reports. He's now going to be back in being a full-time midfielder. And, you know, he's only really had one year where he's been a top eight mid, but he's, you know, had years and years and years of mid 90s to high 90s scoring. You've got a Jai Simpkin who,
00:35:14
Speaker
Yes, had an injury interrupted a lot like LDU, but you'd think that they're still pretty young and that I would be shocked if he's not M2 behind LDU so that they can have the bigger bodies in there protecting the younger guys as they develop. Are there any other guys like a Giant Newcomb, that type?
00:35:30
Speaker
John you can I don't like so this this part of this comes from like where people break out from and I I struggle to see you can taking another big step up so I'm probably a Like auntie and you can guy at the moment. He I think already led the CBA's last year. I just don't see where he kind of goes
00:35:48
Speaker
to improve on that this year. But yeah, I think there's lots of guys in that 700k range that are interesting. You touched on Simpkin. I had him at one point in the pre-season. They were mucking around with him at half forward and half back at various points, which to me suggests that they don't necessarily want him in their core midfield rotation, which worries me a little bit. Yeah, Wines. I'm still not sure how that plays out because they do have, what, Butters, Rosie, and Horned Francis.
00:36:14
Speaker
I know Hinkley keeps saying that he's going to be absolutely in there this year. He was at 50% CBAs last year and went at 78 fantasy. So what do we realistically seeing him get back to? I think he had three games where he had 70% plus CBAs and he was at that 94 average, which is still a pretty good return. If he got up to 70% and goes at 95, are you OK with that? It could be OK.
00:36:41
Speaker
Guthrie I guess is another one which you know he could reasonably come back and lead the Cats CBAs this year. The struggle with the Cats is it's probably the hardest Victorian side at least anyway to actually get preseason reports out of an accurate one so who knows what they're going to do and that always makes me nervous picking up those types. He's also at that point where
00:37:00
Speaker
He's getting a little bit of long in the tooth and I worry about his body. But yeah, like there's lots of other guys at 700K range. And Carl Ammon was one that I have had in the team as well. But yeah, once again, in match him, safe match around with him at half back and wing still.
00:37:15
Speaker
I think the risk obviously with him is not just that he doesn't get the right role, but then he doesn't get DPP as well. So I'm like very certain at the moment that Martin is only going to play that half back role and we'll end up with DPP around six and move back. Like it's the same reason why like a Bailey Scott who I think is
00:37:32
Speaker
Did a calf today, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's the right calf today. Like the same reason why I wouldn't go with someone like that, because I think there's enough of a chance that they don't get DQP that it ends up being a really bad pick. If you're going to pick someone to get DQP, you have to be so certain that they're getting it. It can't be like, oh, they might get it, or like it's a good chance you have to be certain. So yeah, Amon and Scott, for example, I'm like scared off because of that. But the rest of them are all in consideration. I just see
00:38:00
Speaker
Matt Crouch is having the history and we saw the role at the end of last year and they signed him to a two year contract. So to me, it seems very certain that that is going to happen. Nick Martin, I'm pretty certain the others, I still have enough uncertainty over where they end up that they're the ones that I'm probably more likely to not start and correct to rather than take a leap of faith on it working out, if that makes sense.
00:38:27
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely right. I agree with you on pretty much all of those players. Simkin, it would be interesting to see, but I haven't read as much of the match sim sort of stuff as you're doing, but it does kind of make sense that they throw them around a little bit if they're looking to get more guys through there.
00:38:42
Speaker
Ollie Wines, he just really intrigues me because if you had a spreadsheet with all AFL players in it and you didn't have the names there and you're purely looking at his data, you would be able to sell yourself the narrative that he had the injury interrupted pre-season last year. I'm pretty sure he didn't train at all off the back of knee surgery and then essentially just played round one. And you could tell he was just so far off the pace. But from a footy point of view, I try to think of things from a footy point of view, not just a fantasy point of view because we do get caught up
00:39:12
Speaker
in the numbers and your rosy and your butters, although they are fantastic to watch and they're definitely the future, the fact of the matter is that Port Adelaide went out in straight sets. And we don't know whether that's because the young midfield were tiring and they just couldn't go at the end of the year. And for me, it makes perfect sense for an Ollie Wines to be in there, essentially the M1, not from a scoring point of view, but an M1 in terms of doing all of the hard work inside to be able to then get the ball on the outside to your butters and rosy who are far more dangerous
00:39:41
Speaker
you know, on the outside, moving the ball forward and being creative. And if, if you want to, you know, extrapolate that out, like a butters and a rosé there, they're dangerous forward, you know, they're, they're able to get, you know, that scoreboard impact on the same way a dusty did back in the day, the same way a danger field did back in the day. And, you know, you don't need these type of class players getting your 80% CBAs, you want them being as damaging as possible. So
00:40:04
Speaker
Ken Inkley normally is pretty straight down the line with what he says. And if he's saying that Ollie Wines is back in the midfield 100% and he's looking to compliment these players, then yeah, I can't say less than a 95 average, which would be an okay pick. But if you can get back to those sort of 98s, then it's a pretty good pick.
00:40:22
Speaker
Yeah, I take your point. I think you're right. I mean, the other thing you just step back and think about is all of Horne, Francis, Rosie and Butters are dangerous in front of goals. Wines is not right. Wines is a one wood and that's it and that's in the midfield. All the others you could reasonably rotate more through the forward line and it'd be good for them just given that none of them have been particularly durable. I mean, I know Horne Francis' issues have kind of or should have been fixed and he hasn't really had the same injury history that Butters or Rosie has.
00:40:51
Speaker
So yeah, like I could totally see why they'd put wines in and just going back and looking at his 2022 as well, which I pulled up while we were talking. So he had 71% CBAs and 77% time on ground and went 98 for fantasy. So like, yeah, if he goes from 50 to 70% CBAs, his time on ground was low last year, because as you mentioned, he started off slowly had a few games in like the mid 60s, like that could reasonably get up to
00:41:14
Speaker
75 plus. I don't see a reason why you couldn't go back to 100. The only thing that I do worry about a little bit is Port is one of the lowest stoppage teams. Yeah, lowest scoring and lowest stoppage. So absolutely, they changed their game style up and it worked. They got in the top four.
00:41:35
Speaker
So I can't see them going away too much from that. But at the same time, you spoke about St Kilda being the lowest stoppage team or one of and only seeing upside there. You'd think that Port Adelaide can only go up from the bottom as well in terms of their fantasy scoring. We saw a Collingwood who made that same kind of brand, but they weren't horrendous fantasy scorers. They were still able to average, I think, 1540 compared to a Port Adelaide 1440. So maybe there's some upside there. But yeah, we don't need to talk about Ollie Wines anymore, but it will be very interesting to see in the pre-season.
00:42:02
Speaker
Yeah, just quickly. So they were one of the worst hit out teams last two years as well. Actually, I think they were the lowest hit out wins last two years. So like one of the things they've solved hopefully in the off season is actually bringing in a ruck that will start winning some contest. So I wonder if they actually do become a little bit more happy to play stoppage style or get some benefit out of that. Like, like, yeah, it's I think Wines is reasonable. It's yeah. Yeah. Okay.
00:42:23
Speaker
Fair enough. Let's move on. So midfielders, we won't touch on the rookies. A, we don't know who's playing, but B, we've all essentially got McCurcher and Sanders locked away on M7 and M8. So that's all well and good. We just got to see who's named to fill out our benches. The rucks. Now here's where it gets interesting. So as a man that's been pretty set and forget in the past, it's how I've been successful.
00:42:45
Speaker
You've got Roland Marshall and Tim English that have both had fantastic seasons. I think we're sleeping on Marshall a little bit, but it is hard considering he's so heavily priced. But how are you looking to attack the rucks this year, knowing that we've got Grundy, who's under priced because he's now gone to Sydney and left Melbourne. You've got Gorn, who's also under priced. And now you've got Cherry as well, who's going to have the number one ruck roll when he's never had it in the past.
00:43:08
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, Rux were a really fun time for me last year because I started Cherry. I started him like with the emergency on. So when he got injured, I then restructured my side to bring in Wits. So my round one team had Wits R2, Cherry R3.
00:43:28
Speaker
which made for a lot of fun because then I couldn't change that 500k plus on the bench. Yeah, yeah, I guess I guess I did. No problem with that. I only went went backwards in value, too, which was a bit of a killer. So yeah, I'm hoping to not make the same mistakes this year, although I have had cherry and Grundy in my rock slots for a lot of the year. I've recently moved to Gorn just because I've ended up having the extra money to do so. I think any two of Gorn, Grundy and Cherry is probably where I'll head.
00:43:56
Speaker
Um, yeah, it just comes down to there being enough value that I don't think you need to start an English or a Marshall who are probably close to the top of their price. Um, and given that both English and Marshall have had reasonably poor injury history, the fact that they both ended up playing out the year last year, I think is a minor miracle. I would probably bet against them backing that up. With that said, I mean, Gawn's what 32 cherry doesn't have great history himself. I think there's a good chance that whoever you pick, it's like, yeah, Murphy's law, you'll end up with injuries in the rocks this year. Just, yeah.
00:44:26
Speaker
feel like that's going to be the case. Yeah, man. It's crazy to think that for the first time in about four years, we're going to have an 80% ruck time Max Gorn. He had Runny last year, but even the years prior to that, he had Jackson that was eating into 35%, 40%. He was still able to average, I think, 108 in 2022.
00:44:46
Speaker
The fact they have no other ruckman, all that will really happen, I think is Van Roohen potentially chopping out in the forward line at times or when Gawn's off the ground and all that means is Gawn's going to get behind the ball to be that outlet mark when teams try to exit D-50. I think Gawn can potentially be a smash play. But yeah, you're right. You do take on that potential injury risk knowing that he's 32. But I think, yeah, Gawn, even with the early buy, he's going to be close enough to what Marshall and English are that he's going to prove to be a smash pick.
00:45:15
Speaker
The only issue is, are we going to have a playing R3 during the buys? Because having your Grundy and Gorn potentially miss round five and round six and having no one to cover, especially when maybe you're looking at a Taylor Adams and maybe some other premiums, the day costs all taking the hit in round five is going to be quite tough. What are your thoughts with the R3?
00:45:35
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I always opt for a playing R3 if I can, even in SuperCoach, it's been popular to start a loophole from round one. I think there's almost no reason to do it any year where you've got buys, you're going to have loopholes and the ability to have players come on at any other point, like it's going to be fine. So yeah, I'm in favor of a playing R3 if you can find one just to generate that cash. I think last year ended up being
00:45:59
Speaker
But there's been almost one for the last three years, I want to say, that's ended up either you started it or you traded it in through the middle of the year. So yeah, sweet Conway, if any of these end up with R1 in their team. So I will definitely be selling R3 and paying up for that. And especially if I end up with gone Grundy for the bike cover, as you mentioned.
00:46:18
Speaker
Yeah, and I think what kind of gets glossed over as well with spending up a little bit more for R3 is that, you know, say hypothetically, say a sweet does come in as R1 and he plays for two or three weeks, but then he's dropped for a sold all or they start sharing. At least you've got the flexibility to trade down to an R3 that might come on the scene. Whereas if you start a 200K player who potentially isn't playing or isn't scoring, you've got to find cash to go up. And that feels like a bit of a wasted trade at times.
00:46:44
Speaker
maybe taking a little bit of a haircut on field to pay up a little bit more for R3 is definitely going to pay off. I know that I think it was maybe three or four years ago when Riley O'Brien came onto the scene and I think he was about 290K and a lot of coaches weren't happy to pay up for that kind of coin on the bench, but he turned out to be almost a competition winning pick because he got that number one spot. And yes, he wasn't putting up premium scores, but I think he went up almost 400, 500K, which
00:47:10
Speaker
You know, 500K, that's just huge. It's the top two or three players for the year. Like that's, yeah. Yeah. As you said, it's like season defining pick. Season's finding money that you get there. Yeah. I'm still hoping that we get Conway for Geelong, but knowing that Geelong don't play anyone under the age of 25, it's a little bit, a little bit worrying.
Forward Line Strategy and Role Evaluation
00:47:30
Speaker
Apparently it went well in Match Sim.
00:47:31
Speaker
Yeah. The recent reports are that he was beating Stanley like around the ground. I want to say it was. I'm not sure if he was actually beating him in the right work, but yeah, that's a promising science, promising science. Yeah. So let's move into the forwards now. We'll finish off with the hardest, hardest line to pick. So I know, I know you're a big Flanders man, so I'm guessing you've probably got him at... Hasn't moved all year. Knowing that maybe you don't like him a cray, which I'm, I'm pretty scarred as well, but I'm, I'm struggling to find someone else to pick there. But how are you looking to go in the forwards this year?
00:48:01
Speaker
Yeah, I'm pretty happy to bet against McRae, especially with the soft tissue injury in the pre-season. So after that, there's, I mean, this is what I kind of was mentioning about starting with lots of mid prices and just slowly cutting them out. There's like tons of guys that I think could be pretty interesting. Fischer, I'm still not out on despite his soft tissue injuries. I think he's priced well enough. And we saw what Zebel and Hall have done in that role. And Chisel, that I don't see any reason why he couldn't end up being near keeper range.
00:48:27
Speaker
Billings is interesting. I think there's some chatter that he was actually in the twos for matching today. So he might be someone that gets moved on pretty quickly. James Jordan, I'm pretty big on depending on what that role looks like. Thankfully we get a free hit with both Billings and Jordan in terms of where they end up. And I think that's the benefit of these guys is we'll actually get a good look and configure out if the role is nice or not for the year.
00:48:49
Speaker
Fife I guess is one that people have talked about and I don't know if harms is cheap enough in this format. Probably not just having a look at 6.30. Fife is probably more of a supercoach election than a fantasy one. Yeah. Baker I've looked at like this. Honestly, if you throw out a name, I've probably looked at them for forward eligibility.
00:49:08
Speaker
Yeah. Harms is an interesting one. And he's actually in my side at the moment. Yeah, it's interesting. I'm not confident. Let's put it that way. He's just in there at the moment. I'm just sleeping on it just to see how I feel. But he's more of a play in your supercoach and real DT formats because he's a lot cheaper in those. Unfortunately, in AF, he obviously gets that discount off his previous year, which was a little bit higher, I think, off that 65.
00:49:33
Speaker
So, or maybe even a bit higher. So he's probably priced about that 70 mark, which does make it tough. Did you read that AFL.com.au article about him that came out about three days ago? Oh, did it talk about how he kicked like four goals from half forward and how he wants to play more inside mid time and you know, they had a role for him. It was something like that, right? Like it was very feel good. You know, I was worried about coming over because we'd been enemies for so long, but they took me under the wing and I'm going to have a great season, that type of article. Yeah. Yeah.
00:50:02
Speaker
Reading through it, I'm not going to lie, it gave me a little bit of confidence when he said that he's essentially been training as an inside midfielder with, you know, a little bit of half forward time, which obviously he will because, you know, you've got Bont Liber that are going to be the main guys.
00:50:14
Speaker
and even a, even a Trillor, but if he's got 40% CBAs in that Bulldog system that are very high stoppage, we'd be silly not to look at him. You know, even a Bailey Smith last year, we had very limited CBAs. He was still able to score 83 in that system. Yes, he's a lot more aerobically gifted, which means he could get on the outside a lot more, but I always do like to have a look at these players that have moved clubs for a fresh start.
00:50:40
Speaker
And we talk about them giving Matt Crouch two years. They've given him three years. So he was just going to be a fringe player without a role. I can't see them giving him three years. I think, well, I mean, they gave Rory Atkins three years, so it doesn't always work out. But if they've got that role there for him, they believe in him. And he says he's in the best mental space he's been in a long time then. Absolutely. If I see in the preseason that he's got that 40 to 50% CBA role and they're allowing him to play his natural gain.
00:51:05
Speaker
I'd much rather at this stage start with him over in Macrae, who I think is going to be OK, but I don't see much value, especially with what I saw last year.
00:51:14
Speaker
Yeah. So it's like really interesting, the inside mid time, because what we as fantasy players call inside mid, I think is quite different to what AFL players call inside mid. Um, like, so I could see McRae saying like, I played inside mid last year as well. Like I think that like that is if I'm, if I'm starting half forward and I'm pushing up to the stoppage to play around the ball at stoppage, I'm an inside mid, even if I'm not necessarily starting CBA mid.
00:51:41
Speaker
And so that's what I worry about. Like the fact that he kicked four goals doesn't scream inside mid to me. That screams like half forward. That's been pushing up to be the extra number at the contest, which at the dogs can still score really well. Yeah. And McRae's like, even though it was bad for McRae standards, it was still a good score, especially in the context of forwards this year. So it may end up being good.
00:52:03
Speaker
but seeing that kind of gave me less confidence because I'm like, I don't know why, I just get the feeling this is half forward role that he's playing. The other thing I was thinking about is like, in what world is
00:52:15
Speaker
playing Harms as an inside mid better than Jack McRae. And I know like McRae is slower than they talk that up all the time. But like, really? Like, is he that slow that Harms ends up being a better inside mid? I'm really worried. He's cheaper in Super Coach. Like he's very much an option in that. He's as cheap as like Jordan or Billing. So like imagine a 200K discount in fantasy.
00:52:39
Speaker
on what he's priced at. But yeah, I'm a bit worried about him. I could see myself ending up with him though, totally. The other one that I really like, which other people talk about is Conor McDonald. I think he is one of the best talents on that Hawks list. And if he was being promised inside mid-time or CBA time, I'd be all over him. Same with Dylan Moore, actually. There's lots of Hawks half forwards that I like if they were playing on ball. But yeah, I just don't think he'll get the role.
00:53:08
Speaker
Yeah, Connor Max, he's interesting. Selby talks about it all the time in terms of him being second behind Daikos in his draft year for scoring. I think he averaged 121 in the coach's league or whatever it was back then. Yeah, I'm a little bit concerned. You can't be hot on a co-aim on going back into defence and averaging 105 in that kind of system where they chip around the back line and then also being hot on a Connor McDonald who
00:53:33
Speaker
primarily is going to be a half forward who maybe gets a few goes in the midfield because we saw last year that Hawthorne, that's the brand they played. They were very low stoppage. They were very low meters per disposal and they just spent all of their time chipping around in the back line. So that's what worries me about Econ McDonald. There's no doubt he's got talent.
00:53:52
Speaker
It would just be what kind of role he plays, but as always, it'll be watching in the preseason. I think all of us would be far more tempted if we saw 40 to 50% CBAs in the preseason, but I'm not sure it's going to eventuate. The same with the Joshua Shelley as well. I know a lot of people have been lying to Joshua Shelley, but
00:54:08
Speaker
From my point of view, I saw Matt Crouch, Dawson and Laird finish the season and that's when Adelaide were playing their best footy pushing for finals. I just can't be hot on a Matt Crouch and also be hot on a Josh Richelli because those roles are going to contradict each other. I'm Matt Crouch over Richelli at this point.
00:54:30
Speaker
I was talking about earlier, like where you actually find mid prices from or like what are the most predictable ways to get these breakouts? And for me, the worst one to try and do is natural improvement. If you try and predict natural improvement, that is where you come unstuck more often than not. It's really hard to do. So that's why someone like Caleb Sorong, I would have never picked up last year because there was no reason for him to start doing better other than he just naturally improves.
00:54:56
Speaker
Turns out he actually got a little bit more CBAs, a little bit more time on ground. And if you had your ear to the ground, maybe you would have picked up on that stuff. Same reason why I wouldn't pick Newcomb. I can't see why he goes better this year. And that's where like a Rochelle, Econo McDonald, if there's no role change and you're kind of just hoping that they do a little bit better or get a little bit more mid time, it's these aren't good picks. And it comes back to like, well, why is harms interesting? Where players are predictable, a little bit more predictable and doing better is
00:55:21
Speaker
they have a clear role change or they change clubs for a role change. So, harms fits that category, billings fits that category, Jordan fits that category, Fisher fits that category. Those are the types of mid prices that I think are the ones that you should be watching more closely because they're going for more opportunity. They're
00:55:40
Speaker
usually you're not picking them up to put them in the twos or as depth. So they tend to have reasonably good job security. They're discounted because they've been played out of position. Like those are the ones that start ticking the boxes. And then the last one is those that are coming off injury, which is like a Zach Williams. And, you know, the price has been inbuilt from the game. You just get these really heavy discounts because they haven't been playing for years. So, yeah, the types that I think I shy away from actually two of the ones I've got in defense are like Buterich and Chapman.
00:56:10
Speaker
Um, like they're the ones that are like, oh, Chapman, I guess is not really natural improvement because he's got injuries. So it's a little bit, a little bit different. You are banging on some natural, but they're, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and
00:56:32
Speaker
I go on because it's not natural improvement to roll change like we've seen that he's good but he's going into a better role. But yeah so I got McDonald and Michelle he scammy because they're at the top end of that price and unless I'm really certain that they're moving into the new role like they just not the ones that are gonna end up being those lights out pics or at least you're not gonna be able to predictably bank on those types of guys being lights up so they're the ones that I'll shy away from once
Importance of Role Change and Recovery in Player Selection
00:56:59
Speaker
again.
00:56:59
Speaker
Yeah, and I think Selby nails this on the head as well. So he talks about in his winning years when he got on a Toronto price at 60 and he broke out to a 95. He had a Clayton Oliver, you know, break out to over 100 in his second year. Yip Atraka, when he broke out, Yip McCray. But he didn't start any of these players. I think he might have started Atraka in that year, if I'm not mistaken.
00:57:21
Speaker
you correct very quickly. So it's very different to see it in a pre-season game compared to a round one game. So you have a look at these type of players and then if they do go bang in round one, potentially even in round two, then that's when you quickly jump across and you correct from some of your failed ones. But if you start too many of these guys,
00:57:39
Speaker
and they don't work out, then you find yourself in no man's land. And that's why traditionally I have been a little bit less mid-pricer heavy, but it's good that you've kind of clarified what you're looking at for a breakout mid-pricer rather than that natural development. Yeah. Yeah. And it's like, I guess kind of the same reason why like I wouldn't necessarily start a ward law because like, I'm just not sure that the scoring is there any second year. I'd jump on it. It's like similar to Oliver. I know that ward laws got injury stuff built in as well, but like same type of reason why I'd shy away from those types of picks.
00:58:08
Speaker
Yeah, so you've gone through all of the mid prices. Let's just finish up with the rookies. Are you looking to run one or two rookies there at the moment? So I've had one all pre-season, but I've just moved it to two. With that said, I've got like 200K in the bank. So I could still fit in another mid price. We could get someone up to five if we really wanted to. But yeah, Harley Reid is now at F5.
00:58:26
Speaker
And like there's a good chance he's a keeper for the honestly if the role is what we saw out of she's always like a decent chances of keeper. Which is, you know, interesting because it frees up more trades if we do have an extra keeper from a 300k price point. I've got Caleb Windsor there at f6. There's been some pretty positive stuff about him in the Ds.
00:58:47
Speaker
Preseason reports and then your Wilson Manor to round out the bench and they both sound pretty good as well. So yeah, I think this is once again, the type of line where I'd like to run maybe one less rookie because Ford rookies just aren't that great. But the crop this year seems better than what we've had most years. So maybe I'm happy to run another one if we don't end up with the right mid prices. If we struggle to find both mid prices and rookies, then that is where I will be looking back at like, okay,
00:59:15
Speaker
McRae is probably fair value, but I think that ends up being worth it just because I don't see enough value elsewhere in the line.
00:59:22
Speaker
Yeah. So on that, then you, you didn't mention a Finn McCray. You're not, you're not keen on a Finn McCray. I moved him out today. I don't think he ends up being best 22. If he, if he is, I'm happy to start him. Yeah. Yeah. But I like, I, I think reef beats him out for a spot and he ends up being sub I'm worried even if he does play ends up being sub more often than not. So, uh, yep. Yeah. I think it's unlikely that I started him, but that can change it. And it's the crystal ball work at this time in the preseason. We've still got a month to go preseason games.
00:59:52
Speaker
round zero for the pies as well. But yeah, if he's locked in best ring, I'd start him, I just don't see that at the moment. Yep, absolutely nailed my thoughts on McCray. He is in my team at the moment, but the more I think about it, we know how hard it is to break into a premiership side at the best of times. And even if he does, he could be the sub one week in, one week out, and that's going to be a bit of a nightmare trying to swap that. But you are right, we'll have a look in round zero.
01:00:17
Speaker
Mate, that chat was absolutely fantastic.
Conclusion and JD's Social Media Insights
01:00:20
Speaker
Sorry, before we finish this, one player I wanted to ask about actually, because we didn't touch on him, was Adams, who's obviously very popular in the forward line. We didn't touch on him at all. I do assume from that that you're not that keen on him either? I have him at the moment. Oh, there you go. More at the moment because of the price point and just having him in there as a bit of a placeholder.
01:00:40
Speaker
Ah, it's one of those things. His scoring history, you would think that he's, you know, you talk about these players moving clubs for a new role. Has he moved clubs for a new role or has he moved clubs because Sydney just want a little bit more on-field leadership and he can play the same role there for three years, whereas at the Pies, you know, the writing was on the wall. He was potentially out of favour this year and that would have, you know, broken him.
01:01:05
Speaker
I tend to think that he will probably play the same role. He'll be around that sort of 40% CBA role where he sort of chops out from the forward line. I still think, you know, Parker's going to be one of the main guys in there. You would think Warner, even though Warner was on a bit of the outer
01:01:20
Speaker
towards the back end of last year. I'm not sure what was going on there, but you've got Mills when he comes back, you've got Gould and they love throwing row bottom in there for that bit of defensive pressure. Like they actually do that pretty deep, but at the same time, they were one of the worst clearance teams last year. So even with that 40% role, what's to say that he doesn't just average the low eighties that he did in 2022, I think at the pies when he was up around that sort of 60% mark, admittedly in a lower system, a lower fantasy scoring system that year.
01:01:50
Speaker
Yeah, so I'm a little bit worried there. And with the buy as well, it makes it a bit tricky, but he is in my side at the moment. Okay. Yeah, I like what in 2022, we had 65% CVAs and still didn't score enough. So I do worry that yeah, coming to this one side, which yeah, as you mentioned, not necessarily the
01:02:13
Speaker
Yeah, they're okay with stoppages, but like middle of the range, which I guess is where pies were too. I don't know. Like I just, I'm not sure that combined with the injury history. Yeah. Yeah, we do. But in saying that, you know, the same sort of theory with Port Adelaide, the fact that they've now brought in a Ruckman, maybe they're more happy to play a little bit more stoppage brand footy, even though Sydney kind of do already, but having Grundy there, that more dominant player around the contest compared to a Tom Hickey, Peter Lattoms that they were running at times.
01:02:41
Speaker
You know, maybe there are more points on offer around the stoppages, which is Adam's bread and butter. Like that's, that's, that's what he was in his day. He was a stoppage specialist. So yeah, who knows. And the chemistry with Grundy as well, right? Should be, yeah, we should probably shouldn't discount that. Yeah. So like I said, he's in my side at the moment, but like everything, it'll just be that round one look. And if he does come out and he's got 60, 60 plus percent CBAs and looks good in the role, I think he's going to be pretty hard to pass up with the, with the forwards that we have this year.
01:03:11
Speaker
Awesome. Mate, that was really good. I really, really enjoyed that. Can you please just let all our listeners know where they can find you, even though you are a Super Coach man. I'm actually doubling a little bit in Super Coach this year, so I'm sure some of our listeners might give it a go too. So where can they find you on the socials?
01:03:27
Speaker
Welcome to the dark side. So on Twitter, you can find me at Jackson Davey, I tend to tweet like both Supercoach and fantasy stats there. So it's probably worth the follow. And then on YouTube, it's at Jackson Davey as well. So just search my name, you should be able to find me. I sometimes do like fantasy team reveals and updates throughout the year. But as you mentioned, it's tends to be more focused on the Supercoach side. I have released a like recently a strategy video, which kind of
01:03:54
Speaker
talked about how to apply fantasy strategy to Supercoach. So I think there's something in there, even if you're more of a fantasy coach anyway, because it does go through some of those learnings and try and apply it. And then the fantasy take TV podcast is hosted on George Supercoach YouTube channel. And so you can find me there occasionally as well if you're looking for that little bit of extra content. But if you're a pod pod listener, I'm sure I'm sure you're filled up to the brim with it. You don't need to come find that as well.
01:04:21
Speaker
Nah, awesome mate, and I'll definitely, definitely keep in contact with you and who knows, maybe you'll be one of the first to go, or the first to go back to back to back for sure, but I'm not sure there's too many coaches out there with three hats, so fingers crossed I get one before you do, but who knows? Be good, good race for it. Alright mate, cheers. Cheers.