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AFL Fantasy FORWARDS | #PODPOD
99 Plays3 years ago
The Statesman, Lewy and Dos talk about six players coming into our forward line calculations in AFL Fantasy Classic in 2022.
Some big names include Tim Taranto, Mitch Duncan, Josh Dunkley, and Stephen Coniglio!
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Transcript
Introduction to Podcast and Hosts
00:00:00
Speaker
G'day and welcome to another episode of the Point of Difference AFL fantasy podcast. A different look at AFL fantasy classic, available exclusively in season to silver and gold members of the keeper league. This episode we're talking all things forwards and some more potty pod pod pods.
00:00:32
Speaker
G'day and welcome back to another Pod Pod.
Complexities in Forward Selection
00:00:35
Speaker
With me as always, I'm Dossy by the way, with me as always is Stado and Louis. Stado mate, Fossil, how's it going? You're not too bad. I must admit this isn't, this is not the line I'm that excited about to be honest. There's just so many questions across the board. So it's a bit of a hard one when you're building your team, how you manage this.
00:00:57
Speaker
If there was this wonderful world of rookies, I'd take all six rookies in the forward line and put primos everywhere else. Yeah, well, there is a lot of questions and hopefully we can answer some of those questions with our players that we talk about today. But Louis, are you excited about the forward line, mate?
00:01:13
Speaker
I am, mate, but I've got to say I'm doubling up on what Stado said. I think a lot of coaches a couple of months ago when they saw the positions being revealed thought, gee whiz, look at all the depth we've got in the forward line. But just a couple of months later, we start to look at it and question ourselves and rightfully so that maybe some of these picks aren't as straightforward as what they might have been.
00:01:35
Speaker
Yeah, there might be a reason that they've got forward status next to their name, and it might not be that nice a reason, to be honest, lads. Well, let's get into it anyway. And the structure that we've been going with these shows, we had a little bit of a different one last week, because we were talking about rucks. Had to stretch that one out a bit. But this week, we're back to as normal. And what we're talking about is three players each. We're going to be talking about any forward that we want to talk about, apart from rookies. So we'll be covering rookies in an upcoming pod. That should be next week, if all things go well.
00:02:04
Speaker
We'll be looking at three requests from Twitter as well. So all in all, we're going through 12 forwards and we're going to go one by one.
Mitch Duncan's Risky Potential
00:02:10
Speaker
Stado kick us off. Yeah. Unfortunately, I've got Mitch Duncan to start us with. What I would say is a scary watch.
00:02:21
Speaker
He could make or break your season and we only have to ask Nathan whether that is actually the case with that magnificent score of 8 last year. He only played the 10 games and turned 31 in June and was injured three times last season.
00:02:41
Speaker
He missed the first two rounds, he was injured for a 62 noting with just 40% time on ground in round 10 and then injured on the magnificent score of 18 round 14 and did not
00:02:58
Speaker
play again last season. This one is just so hard to judge and one I'll be watching pre-season closely. I want to see how he's training, what type of role, what's going on. Look, he fully fit. We know he's got about 10 points upside, but I'm very wary on this pick. Mitch Duncan, I'm wary.
00:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, well, I mean, you mentioned the two games with the limited time on ground that the average without those games would have been absolutely monstrous and potentially coming in off a full preseason after not having that by the sounds last year, there is some upside to be had. For me, he's like the in terms of upside, he's like the Locky Whitfield. But in terms of downside, it is a scary proposition. But is he one of these guys that could
00:03:48
Speaker
Kill you for not having him, though, to start the season. No, it's too expensive to kill you. So he's not going to jump 200, 300 K. So the ones they're going to kill you if you don't jump on the train are the players around the three, 400,000 that are going to average a ton.
00:04:09
Speaker
If he averages 105, he's not killing you because you can pick him up anywhere to go. There's mid prices and there's rookies that you need to get off the field first. So look, he's not going to kill you, but he could make your season if he starts with a few blinders. All right, Louis, you're on the same page. I'm interested in the Mitch Duncan one just because it is a big talking point, what your thoughts are as well.
00:04:35
Speaker
I'm pretty keen on him. He's been in my forward line all pre-season. He's one of those players that I think you do start with rather than trade into because history suggests that he does lose a game or two during the season. So I think if you can jump on immediately and get a couple of good scores, there's every chance he goes 110 for the first six rounds of the season and that gets you off to a flyer.
00:05:00
Speaker
For me, I'd be starting Mitch Duncan, but all the points Stato raised are certainly very valid.
Isaac Heaney's Midfield Prospects
00:05:07
Speaker
I actually want to get, when we finish this, I think I need to know which primos you guys are rocking with in the forward line. We haven't really revealed too much of our teams just yet. We're going to probably go through them in upcoming pods, but man, I'm interested to know in that forward line who you guys are rocking at the moment. We'll wait until the end for that one though. Louis though, do you want to take us through your first one player that you want to talk about in the forward line?
00:05:29
Speaker
Yeah mate and he's someone who's actually been in my pre-season team the whole pre-season I've been really bullish on him and he's probably gotten a little bit of a little bit more popularity over the last couple of weeks because of some things that have gone around on the socials but my player is Isaac Heaney.
00:05:47
Speaker
And the reason I'm interested is because he's underpriced. He's underpriced in the same role he's played the last seven years since his debut. That's what makes Heaney such an interesting option now because in 2021 Heaney dropped below a 90 average for the first time since 2016. Average 76 which suggests that well a fit and firing Heaney in 2021 is already potentially 14 points underpriced.
00:06:13
Speaker
So a 90 averaging forward that's nice and by the end of the year yes that gives you a decent f6 but that's not the reason why I'm interested in him. This preseason and yes it's most pre-seasons this is said but I feel like there's a little bit more smoke this time in regards to the previous years. Isaac Heaney is reportedly going to split his time between the midfield and the forward line.
00:06:37
Speaker
So this is why I think he's such an interesting prospect for 2022. If that split can climb up past at least 30%, then there's every chance he averages his average rather follows suit and potentially adds, you know, 10 plus points on the average that he's already priced at. Well, sorry, the 90 point average point of butchered that a little bit, but
00:07:00
Speaker
Look, he's got a bad reputation for being injury prone and that's not entirely untrue. He's very kamikaze like in the way that he plays his football. He's susceptible to some impact injuries and little niggles throughout the seasons. But excluding his debut year, he's actually played 2018, 21, 22, 6 in 2020 and then 20 in 2021. So far from perfect, but not terrible either.
00:07:29
Speaker
Yeah, it's funny. Um, usually when, whenever we heard more midfield time out of Sydney, I just completely shut my ears. I'm like, yeah, righto horse. Um, not going to buy that for a second. Um, and that was the case for years with, with Callum Mills. And then last year it's finally happened. And now.
00:07:48
Speaker
I think we got to start listening from when it comes from from Sydney. I didn't believe it with the Mills talk last year because we've been tricked by horse in the past.
Josh Dunkley - A Must-Have
00:07:56
Speaker
But, you know, the messaging is coming out that he's going to do it. I'm kind of inclined to believe him this time. And like you said, even as a forward, he's got plenty of upside. So the fact
00:08:06
Speaker
This does. There's a couple of old heads that are leaving that midfield or at least their duties are sort of reducing a little bit. Obviously, you've got Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker is getting up in age. They've lost George Hewitt, which would sometimes stream through there in the last couple of years, last two years, we've seen
00:08:22
Speaker
that the Sydney Swans, they've been more inclined to put some of their younger group through there and they're starting to do a little bit of a mini rebuild. I'd love to hear Stato's thoughts, given that he does go for the Swans, but it looks as if Sydney are starting to plan for the next couple of years and Mills seems like he was probably part A of that.
00:08:43
Speaker
And my response is he was value as a forward. He is a must as a mid. Yeah. Interestingly enough, his highest center bounce of tendencies for the year came in around 19 and it was actually his second high score for the year. I thought it was his highest, but 132 against freeman with only 19% time on ground. So that was his best, one of his best games of the year coming with a bit more mid-time. My first player that I'm going to be talking about
00:09:10
Speaker
is Josh Dunkley. So a play that burned me last year for actually not starting with him. So I do love Dunkley this year and it's pretty much I just don't want to miss out again like I did last year. So let's wind back the clock. Over the first six rounds last season, Dunkley averaged 115 and a half.
00:09:30
Speaker
from 47% center bounce attendances. So that's not even, you know, that's, that is having a bit of a forward split role. So that's not, you know, dominating the center bounces by any stretch. So he can still put up a decent score if he's got that forward mid split. Just when he came back though in round 18,
00:09:52
Speaker
had had similar Senate bounces actually so only five percent less across the final five games but he only averaged 63 AFL fantasy points and he just I was um because I was having a bit of fun last year I brought him straight back in as you guys might remember from last year so I enjoyed that 63 average for the run home
00:10:12
Speaker
And I was watching him closely and he just looked completely lost, like not dunkly like at all in terms of getting around the contest. And it just was very undunkly like so. But my thinking is.
00:10:24
Speaker
I've talked about it pre-season already. I kind of mentioned it with Mitch Duncan, but this is where it comes into play because he is priced only at the 92. He's a bloke that could kill you if you don't have him in my opinion. I'm wanting to be an owner. He's already highly owned and I believe his floor is much higher than that rusty end to the season.
Tim Taranto - Timing the Buy
00:10:44
Speaker
Are you guys in the same boat, Stado, with Dunkley, just got to have him? Or can you see a bit of downside given that, you know, fully fit Trelore coming in, they've got a pretty stacked midfield, et cetera? I just think at the end of the day, the second half of the season, he was still struggling with that injury. Yeah. So just couldn't play the way he wants to play. If his pre-season form is good and playing a similar role, then I'm very hot on him.
00:11:15
Speaker
Perfect. Who's your second player you want to talk about? My second one is Timmy Taranto. Now he's a watch. You might've heard me say that before. A watch. It's because we have Josh Kelly, Jacob Hopper, Callum Ward, Lachie Whitfield.
00:11:30
Speaker
Steven Canilio, Lachlan Ash, Tom Green and Timmy Taranto all in for possible midfield time. Out of those, it's Hopper, Ward and Green that are really just mids, so they don't really play any other roles. Without Toby Green last year, and with Lockie, Whitfield and Ash, who they are setting up to be their new tagger,
00:11:57
Speaker
In the mid, Timmy T only averaged 74. Just 74. To be fair, it's not a bad floor. But the reality is you're paying a pretty hefty price, so I think it is too risky to start with that price.
00:12:17
Speaker
But if and when the full-time mid-roll happens, and that may happen with a few injuries, get on and get on fast. I reckon we can save probably 100 to 150 grand on his price at some point in the season.
00:12:36
Speaker
That's an interesting case for not starting with him. It does feel like a very inflated price given what you're saying when he plays forward. He just basically doesn't score nearly as much obviously. It's kind of the case in point as to why CBA's are important for a player as Tim Taranto is one of the biggest ones there.
00:12:55
Speaker
I just look at the forward line and I'm like, like you said, I just think there's a pathway for him where he's going to be the prime midfielder at some point. And I'm like, why don't I just start with him so I don't have to bother getting him at some point. But you think the values, his values too, sorry, his starting price is too high and the risk is too high to bother trying to deal with that.
Charlie Curnow's Scoring Potential
00:13:19
Speaker
Absolutely. If Raina, as they're saying, is going to be blitzing in the midfield for 380,000 his price and Toronto around the 800,000 mark might be even a little bit more. I can't tell you what his exact price tag is, but it's pretty high. It's 900 plus, I reckon.
00:13:41
Speaker
There you go. So all of a sudden you're talking 500k difference. Rainer goes up 150 score on the same amount as Timmy T and he drops down 150. All of a sudden you're paying 200 grand instead of 500 grand. Yeah, we'll be talking about Cam Ray later, but I've got a little camera argument for that. I'm just using that as an example. It doesn't need to be Rainer. So just think about it.
00:14:09
Speaker
Yeah, no, but what I'm saying is if his price drops 150K and you find someone that increases 150K, that's where you get the big leg up on the competition. Yeah, just the options. He still feels safe and I know, yeah, you shouldn't be paying up for it, but the temptation is there for me, put it that way. Louis, take us through your second ply, mate.
00:14:34
Speaker
Yeah, no worries. So I'll try and figure out if I can figure out how to speak this time round. But I'm going to be talking about Charlie Kurnow. And generally as a rule in fantasy, you just don't start key position players, bar the rare few. And this player...
00:14:50
Speaker
certainly isn't in that bracket. But another rule that we do like to follow in fantasy is pick players with upside as a means to get value for your salary spend. And that's what Charlie Kurnow provides at $347k or a price point of $41k.
00:15:06
Speaker
The reason he comes in priced so cheaply in 2022 is because he's played very little footy in the last 24 months. He was unseen for the second half of 2019. All of 2020 and most of 2021 too and that's off the back of multiple, multiple injuries.
00:15:24
Speaker
But his fantasy scoring has been pretty good in the past. In his second season which was 2017, playing as a key forward he averaged 71 points off the back of 5.6 marks and going at just 0.9 goals a game. And then a year later in 2018 he progressed again to a 74 average this time averaging 6.2 marks a game and 1.7 goals a game.
00:15:48
Speaker
So just going back on his fantasy scoring again 2019 slightly down at 65 and of course returning in 2021 for an average of 50 but of course that was such a long stint out of the game he would have been blowing cobwebs out readjusting to the pace of AFL footy and just trying to get a feel for it again. So for all the things that I just said above I'm interested in him as a starting option but I just want to touch on his role as well.
00:16:16
Speaker
Harry McKay has come on leaps and bounds in the last 24 months and Kerno is suddenly going to find himself playing as the second tall, which of course makes him get the second best defender. With the tank and the style of play of Kerno, he should be able to run around doing what he likes, taking plenty of marks and hopefully rediscovering that form that we saw in the first couple of years of his career.
00:16:40
Speaker
Personally, I'm backing Charlie Kurnow to start pretty hot. Kickstart that cash generation as well because in the first four rounds he comes up against a depleted Richmond defence, a non-existent dogs defence, an average Hawthorne defence and just a sucky Gold Coast team. So I think across those first four rounds of football, potentially he can push his average 75 plus, which is 30 points plus on what he's starting at.
00:17:09
Speaker
And I think he, along with Rainer, is one of those value picks that we've got in the forward line this year. Wow, big case for big Charles up forward. I just remember back in the day, going early, thinking he was looking like the next Nick Riewaldt for us back then, just up the ground. It's easy to forget how good he actually was as such a young player in his third, second and third season kind of thing coming out as well as he did. And played stacks of games, too. He played 20.
00:17:37
Speaker
games in both of his early seasons and it was like this guy's looking like a stud and just has barely played
Will Brody's Fantasy Value
00:17:42
Speaker
since. But you make a good case, Louis. Keith Ford's, it's tough to know, you know, a lot of the rules have changed a lot since he played. And obviously last year when we did see him coming back from an injury, he wasn't that much of a scorer. But Stado, any interest for you and Charles Curnow?
00:17:59
Speaker
And when he's running through those opposition teams, I'm thinking, God, I'm glad I've got cherry in my team. I think he was talking about the defensive stocks, not the midfield there, but yeah, no, it's a good, it's a good point, cheap as chips. And he's maybe one of those options that you can do in terms of what Stata was talking about with the Toronto, you make some coin of Charlie.
00:18:23
Speaker
and you go up to a big dog after he's churned through those easy matchups to start with. My next player is Will Brody, and he's another big talking point, obviously in a similar price bracket to Charlie Kerner, who we've just talked about. So he's 300, and gee, what is he? I don't have a cat. I keep forgetting to write down the prices, but he's in that 300 to 400 bracket, and long order. 47, I think.
00:18:46
Speaker
Yeah, long heralded as a fantasy stud, but barely actually playing in the actual AFL level. So he did average 88 back in 2019 for the Suns when they were absolute garbage. And he played eight games, but his high score that year was 142, getting 29 disposals, nine marks, nine tackles.
00:19:05
Speaker
Obviously, it's a long time ago. He's been stuck in the twos since, but last year in the twos, much like we saw Feorini dominating in second tier level and then coming up and being able to carve up at AFL level, he averaged 117 in the VFL and that's off 31 disposals for mark six tackles. So he does a little bit of everything. The thing that I
00:19:26
Speaker
have enjoyed this pre-season is that we've heard a fair bit coming out from the Freo socials team and a few news articles saying you know Long Muir is going to give him a chance if he puts his hand up the right way this pre-season just reports coming out of these dominating match sim playing as that hybrid midfield forward which I think is great because if he does go forward like I'm not concerned about having a lower ceiling playing forward that tells me that job security could be higher because you've got a guy like Nat 5
00:19:53
Speaker
who they're going to want to play forwards, some games, midfield, other games, and if you've got a guy that's a tall big body like Brody, he's going to be able to swap in and out there. I think don't overthink it for me. I reckon if he's named, obviously that's the big
Tarryn Thomas and Midfield Opportunities
00:20:08
Speaker
thing. If he's got a green dot, I'm not thinking about it at all. He's going to be in my team. He's an absolute lock for me if he's named. Stado, what do you reckon? If named because of the price he'll be in.
00:20:19
Speaker
Yeah, he's gone. I'm actually not as bullish, mate. I think he's a player that if he has two bad games in a row, I could easily see him being dropped as well. Just because Fremantle, they've started to discover that midfield depth that they've had come through the last couple of years through the draft. So he's someone that, yes, he's value. I'm just not fully convinced that he's actually going to nail down a spot on that side.
00:20:43
Speaker
Interesting. Yeah, I'm all in, but I do have been a fan of any Gold Coast player in the VFL for the last few years. Stadio, who's your third player, mate? It's Taran Thomas. Now this player I am hot on, but I think he's still a watch. So there's a couple of clear space available for the midfield time, obviously with the situation with Cunnington and Anderson, but
00:21:11
Speaker
Everyone's got to understand opportunity will be filled by some people. Obviously, Greenwood would actually take one of those spots automatically. He's training the house down. He's an older experienced inside mid who's going to put a lot of tackling pressure on. So he's guaranteed. You've got to think Simpkin is probably their number one
00:21:37
Speaker
attacking midfielder. I think LDU continues his development in there, although I really don't see him as a fantasy star, to be honest. I think LDU is going to be more quality football than quality fantasy stud.
00:21:53
Speaker
and then they'll start the kids rotation now the kids may be a little bit harsh for someone heading into their fourth season but there's a line of people there's hyphen first year there's two first year second years that they'll want to give a fair bit of time in
00:22:10
Speaker
Phillips is one, and one I'm really hot on is Powell is another, and then you've got Taran. So I think there is basically the three main being Greenwood, Simpkin and LDU, then Taran, Powell, Phillips and Hyphen. I think they are the probably seven that get the majority. Then you might get Anderson into the mix, depending on what happens over the next month or so.
00:22:36
Speaker
And of course, hopefully sometime we'll see Ben Cunnington back and we wish him well in his recovery.
00:22:43
Speaker
So it's all about the level of opportunities that Taran gets, whether he becomes a quality forward mid. Now, if he is playing that sort of half or high half forward role, where he's actually run through the wing and a bit of the Dunkley role is the best way to describe it with some CBAs,
00:23:06
Speaker
then I think he's good enough to get us a 90 plus average, but we need to see it on a regular base.
Jordan de Goey's Role Uncertainty
00:23:14
Speaker
So I'm a yes at the moment with Taran Thomas, but very mindful that there is a group of quality players coming through. So I think you need to watch the preseason games, keep an eye on the CBAs and look for the trends that are going to happen throughout the season. Yeah, I think the preseason is going to be so big in determining
00:23:33
Speaker
our forwards are above all else just because we want to see the role that that midfield role probably more than any other line given we have so many players that could run through the midfield in that line this year so it's definitely he's high on my radar and I think he's been in and out of my squad quite a bit I think he actually came out today even though he's been in there pretty much from the get-go so interesting change for Dossie but Louis take us through your third player that you've got for us
00:23:58
Speaker
Yeah, my final guy is Jordan de Goey. Look, not a lot needs to be said about this guy. He becomes fantasy relevant again for us in 2022 after a poor 2021, which was certainly a season of two Harbs, that's for sure. After being promised more midfield time last season, it wasn't until after the buy that we actually saw it.
00:24:21
Speaker
In the first half, JDG averaged just 58, whereas post-fire he went at 110. That's a 52-point differential and the reason he comes into 2022 priced at 707k or just the equivalent of 84 points.
00:24:38
Speaker
He was one of the most obvious picks for the season at the end of last. So why is he not now? Well, by this point, we know what happened in the off season and it's anybody's guess how or if that even impacts his footy. But I just wanted to touch on the coaching change. So Craig McRae is no guarantee to play Jordan to go through the midfield, obviously. In fact, there's a huge chance the way the Pirates play has actually changed entirely, I think.
00:25:06
Speaker
Obviously in previous years under Buckley Colling would have played a high kick marked possession game and I can see them actually adjusting to a more direct attack game because Craig McRae has done his little coaching apprenticeship for the last couple of years at Richmond and you look at the last five years.
00:25:25
Speaker
um that's exactly how they've played so i think he's going to take a little bit of that bring it to Collingwood and because of that i could see Jordan de Goey just dropping with his possession and his marks even if he did play through the midfield which by all reports um at least in the preseason training sessions he's actually splitting
00:25:43
Speaker
a little bit more evenly than what coaches are probably wanting. So definitely a pre-season watch and someone who we've seen can go at 110 for prolonged lengths of time but he's someone that I can also see on the other end actually just sort of going at around that 84 which is done in years previous when he has had a similar role.
Stephen Coniglio's Role at GWS
00:26:05
Speaker
Oh, another pre-season watch. Just see that roll and if it's going to explode. This is why I don't like the forward line. There's too many that you actually have to watch here. There's just no one you can plant. Is he? Right in there. I don't know if you guys listen to the traders, but even Tom Mitchell's interview was a little bit alarming, sort of saying, I'll be mid and forward.
00:26:30
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not, I'm not doubting, um, don't doubt a snout state, as they say. Um, I'm not going to doubt it after last season, thinking Titch was going to take a dip, put it that way. Um, but yeah, it is interesting. And I think with the Dagoi thing, just based on.
00:26:48
Speaker
We obviously see what happens in preseason, but given how he burnt and then burnt a lot of us early last year Based on what we thought was going to happen based on what did happen. I think for now I'm just gonna he's just an upgrade target for me if the roles they're actually in season I don't think I'm gonna even start with him if he if he goes big in the trial to be honest um, all right, let's get on to my final one, which is Steven Canelio and priced at 82
00:27:17
Speaker
That's pretty low, you would have thought, for Stephen Keneally, oh, $6.95K, but he has had a horrid couple of years, including that disastrous Amazon doco, where I think lowered him in the eyes of the audience a little bit, and mainly Leon Cameron, to be honest, the way that sort of dynamic was going. But we're not talking about Amazon, we're talking about Fantasy Footy, and I have no idea what his role is going to be this year, just like we don't know half the guys in this forward line.
00:27:44
Speaker
And half the guys at JWS, it's just the JWS factor that is just a killer for anyone in the forward line. The only JWS player that I'm super confident with is Locky Whitfield because he can score anywhere. Everyone else, it's so hard to tell. And Sato's already gone through the reasons. It's very similar to the Taranto argument. Where is he going to play? If he's in the midfield, I want him. If not, I'm not keen at all.
00:28:06
Speaker
He's another watch, obviously, but I'm only going to pick him if he's a predominant midfielder in the preseason. I probably don't see that happening. And given the injury prone factor as well, I think I'd just be more comfortable not starting him. But I think with him at his price, he's one of these guys, Louie, do you think where if you're going to go and you got to start him based on that price, like he's not really
00:28:30
Speaker
the risk factor that you'll get, that he'll get injured at some point, you probably rather start with him than try to mean in the season.
00:28:38
Speaker
Look, you know, it's been the theme of this podcast, the pre-season watch, but I actually think he probably will start more forward than midfield and it's going to take a little while for Coggs to get the touch for the game
Potential Pitfalls - Rayner vs. Dow
00:28:49
Speaker
back as well. I feel he's obviously missed quite a bit of footy in the last probably two years. So he's someone I'll keep an eye on big time and probably someone I'm actually planning to jump onto at some point because I got no doubts that given the right role, he can be a top three forward.
00:29:07
Speaker
It's just whether or not he goes through that midfield enough. That being said, he's also someone who I think is quite capable up forward. I'm sure he could average 85, which I think he's priced at about 84. I'm sure he could go 85 as a forward as well. So if you're bullish, I wouldn't be too scared off, but for me, state I nailed it with just how many rolls are in that GWS side. For me, I'm just not going to touch it.
00:29:33
Speaker
Yeah, let's get to three from the listeners now pretty quickly. And we had Dusty was one that was quite often requested. Which one of you guys wants to talk about Dusty here? Stado, you want to take us away? Any interest in Dusty bouncing back? Bit of a lost a lot of weight over the summer. Looks like he's apparently, according to
00:29:54
Speaker
It was Riewalt, Jack Riewalt recently. He's incredibly motivated to return to his best form. He's, you know, tearing up the track as they all are, going back into that midfield. At any interest, he's priced only at 81, which is what he averaged last year.
00:30:10
Speaker
Yeah, I've got a lot of interest in understanding who the Richmond mids are going to be. So I really like Jack Graham this year because there needs to be the handover at some point. So there's been Thompson Dow, there's been Jack Graham in my mind just trying to find out who's going to get that bump and benefit and someone will.
00:30:36
Speaker
But if Dusty has lost weight, if he's gained more running power because of that, then maybe he becomes a full-time mid rather than a forward. So I'm really interested to watch what Richmond do. So I'm not against, although the man's burnt me plenty of times in his career.
00:31:00
Speaker
but I'm just interested to see what that midfield mix is. So, yet again, that ugly word we keep on using. This one's a watch. Price at 47 is our next player, and that's Cam Rayner. State has already mentioned, you know, there's a lot of news articles, a lot of reports coming out of Brisbane that he's absolutely tearing up the track. Coming back off his ACL, he's going straight into the guts.
00:31:24
Speaker
There's some talk about Zorko maybe moving on to a halfback flank, probably letting that next wave come through. Form a number one pick. Any interest for you, Louis?
00:31:35
Speaker
No, not particularly DOS and I will throw this one to you because it sounded like you've got some good takes on him but for me just looking at the surface level it's a guy going into his fourth or fifth year of footy at this stage never actually known for his tank in fact it was almost the opposite he was he was parked in a forward pocket for the majority of his early career which just stints through the midfield obviously did that knee about a year ago now so he's coming from
00:32:04
Speaker
Um, perhaps a lower fitness base or certainly, uh, spending so long out of football, you don't really have your wits about you just yet. So, uh, I'm sure his value, but I just haven't seen enough from him. And I think that, uh, given what we have seen years previous and what we've heard in years previous, I'm just not buying into the hype that he's going to become this, um, this gun midfielder that can push an 85 plus average on, and he doesn't need to get to that either.
00:32:34
Speaker
But I'm just not sold and I think, yeah, he's someone who I'm just a bit hesitant
Jade Gresham's Return from Injury
00:32:41
Speaker
on. What about you, Dolph? Well, I don't, I do not want to disrespect like his potential comeback and I hope it goes great. And if he's a fantasy star, I'll be happy to eat my words. But I think the greatest comparison for Cam Rayner heading into this season as the popular pick up forward that he is, is the great man from last year, Paddy Dow.
00:33:02
Speaker
That, I think, I remember watching Cam Rayner in a preseason game a couple of years ago, thinking this guy is a stud. And he was playing in the midfield then, and I was like, this guy is tearing it up. Like, he looked amazing. Like, if I'd written the article after that, I would have said, this guy's ripping it up, playing midfield, et cetera. I remember checking the fantasy stats after, and he'd had the best game that I'd remember seeing, and he had like 60 points.
00:33:30
Speaker
He's a guy that is just looks amazing. And I don't know if he's that accumulator. It's kind of like Paddydale looks amazing getting his clearances, but hasn't exactly put the scores on the board yet. And, you know, rain is super young in his career. So the potential for him to eventually become that is definitely there. Apparently he's improved his tank a lot this preseason, which could be massively beneficial for him.
00:33:55
Speaker
I just think he's a quality over quantity type guy. Even priced at $47, he's probably going to be plenty of upside, but he's not going to be that guy that's, in my opinion, going to go like $75, for instance, which I think is probably what you're looking at. I think Will Brody's a much better pick and I think he's got way more upside if he plays, of course.
00:34:13
Speaker
I actually just worked you out, Dossie Boy. You're so much of the underdog fan that you bat real hard and get excited for those players that aren't best 22. But anyone that's in the 22, you just don't rate. Job security is 100% there. That's the one thing that he's got going for him.
00:34:35
Speaker
Like I said, I'm not Haider, I think he's awesome and he looks great. I just don't know about fantasy. But you're right, he may be quality over quantity. Yeah, and we all paid like the exact same price for Paddydale last year, maybe slightly more. And keep in mind the Lions aren't going to want him firing on all cylinders between rounds, what, one to eight when you're probably going to have him generating cash anyway. They're going to have him nice and fit for the end of season and potentially finals if they make it.
00:35:04
Speaker
Very cool. It's my take. Third player that listeners want to hear about is Jade Gresham. Huge midfield minutes prior to the Achilles, but the Achilles is just such a brutal injury. It looks like it's across sports, like in the basketball, et cetera, it looks like it's an injury that is becoming better to come back from. There's a lot of players, there's a couple of guys, notably those NBA fans, Kevin Durant's just miraculously come back and is just like he was before his injury. But previously it was, you know,
00:35:33
Speaker
career ending kind of thing, the Achilles. So I'm interested to see your take on this one, Stado. I think they're going to take ages with Gresham to come back and probably play him as a forward and ease him back in personally.
00:35:48
Speaker
Yeah, look, it's an interesting one for me because I was never really hot on him in really any stage. There's been a lot of hype about him over the years, but I've never really seen what the key interest is.
Will Phillips' Development Prospects
00:36:03
Speaker
2018 was the last time he played a full season. Since then he's played 19-11-3. So that sort of
00:36:15
Speaker
his run. So there's always seems to be a bit of an injury with him. 2019, he averaged 83. So you could say that that is a really good draft player, but I think he was a midfielder only back in that day. I might be wrong there, but 83 is a four to be great. 83 in a midfield is not so. So look, he's not someone I'm excited about.
00:36:44
Speaker
And quite honestly, even in draft, I'll let someone else take him. I think the big factor was, sorry, I saw you coming in there, but basically, I think it was the 2019 year where he did get that nice average. He kind of moved into the midfield, I reckon, partway through, and he kind of blitzed it. He was one of those second half of the year guns.
00:37:05
Speaker
I was one that was huge on him. I thought he had a bit of Danes Zorko about him, that little pocket rocket that can really kind of do a bit of everything. But for me, just I'm just cautious with the injury anyway. Two tonnes. Yeah. What do you reckon? 106 and a 101 in 2019 and back half of the year.
00:37:22
Speaker
Same boat, Lew. Yeah, I'd be a bit surprised if there wasn't a bit of load management there, especially early. Saints are probably another team that do see themselves in the finals window at the very least, so they won't be taking any risks with him, and I think any sign of soreness in that Achilles, it'll be one, two, three weeks on the sidelines. Get him right, because when he is in the team,
00:37:45
Speaker
especially up forward he is quite impactful so I think that'll be the case. Very quickly last one from the listeners this is a bonus one just because I've got a soft spot in my heart for this bloke. I know you've talked about him already on this show Statesman so I might also ask you this one but he's in that same bracket as the Rainers and the Brodies but it is William Phillips from North Melbourne. Do you reckon he gets a bit more opportunity this year? There's a few people asking about him as well.
00:38:14
Speaker
I absolutely, this is a play you need to develop. Interesting that Powell really took the step up and Phillips didn't last year, but it just makes him an affordable target. Like anything, you need to see that the development is happening, but if he gets that 30-point
00:38:35
Speaker
Then he's a worthwhile stepping stone and he's certainly got the quality and they need to get games in him. So they think Will Phillips is a future captain. So they really rate this young kid.
Closing Remarks and Resources
00:38:48
Speaker
So there's no doubt fully fit. He'll get a lot of opportunity in 2022.
00:38:55
Speaker
Love it. All right, let's finish off with my pod pod pods, my potty pod pod pods. And I'm going to go through these quickly again because we're again running pretty overtime lads. But remember to check out the article that I'll do at the end of the season and I'll go into a bit more detail as to why I'm picking these. I just want your thoughts on this again lads. We're up to GWS and Hawthorne for my pods. I've done a bunch of notes here, but we won't need to use them. Josh Kelly.
00:39:20
Speaker
Louis, I know you're pretty keen on this guy. Just a very quick yes or no, whether you'd actually be keen starting within this year. Oh, absolutely. He's a lock and load for me. He's priced at 103, which is potentially at least seven points under priced. So, yep, absolutely. Love it. He's certainly a pod that I'm looking at quite seriously now. Locky Ash.
00:39:42
Speaker
is the other one now. I think Calvin's been talking him up a fair bit. I just love his observable thirst. I think the role might be harsh to score in, but I think he is the heir to the Matt De Boer tag throne at GWS, which may end up being some nice opportunities to score in the midfield state. Any interest at all with defender eligibility?
00:40:04
Speaker
I certainly watch, but as you say, full midfield time as a defender is certainly someone you need to look at. So I'll keep watching him and see what eventuates. Look, Josh Kelly is my M2 currently as we stand.
00:40:22
Speaker
Finally, some pods you guys can get around. Far, how? Happy with this? It's unbelievable. I won't go through the names yet, but if you want to go pods, here's my starting 22. In defence, I've got a 4 per cent, a 5 per cent or a 2 per cent. In the midfield, I've got a 4 per cent, a 2 per cent or a 4 per cent.
00:40:50
Speaker
My ruck, I've got a 5%er. Ooh, that'll be easy enough to figure out. In my forward line, I've got a 1%er, 8%er, 3%er, and 2%er. Oh, our state, you belong on the pod this year. My team is the pod, pod, pod. Gee whiz. That's unreal.
00:41:13
Speaker
Spriggled up, there's a lot of high-percentage home players, but I don't feel uncomfortable with any of these at the current stage. But you heard me talk about this watch part. I'm certainly watching what happens to ensure that these guys have definitely got the roles I'm expecting them to have.
00:41:35
Speaker
Wow, where are you standing? All right, let's get on to Hawthorn, see if I can pick a couple more of these pods that you're starting with there, Stater. Chad Wingard was the one that came home on fire for the Hawks. He's a pod. And helped me beat you last year, Stacey, if you're recalling out on a match up when he chopped a 150. It's like the first week I brought him in. Stop living in the past, Marge. If Sam Mitchell wants him in the guts, that's when he could be potentially a cheeky midfield, cheeky forward option. He's getting those midfield uses, yeah.
00:42:02
Speaker
It's one that I had to pick. No, he's goin' kids, mate. Yeah, agreed. The other one, talkin' of kids that he's gonna go in that 400-ish K bracket with the likes of your Rows and your Caldwells. Definitely a bit more on the risky side, this one, but could get a stack of games. Has the high tackling upside, averaged a ton at state league level. Huge fan, Sam Mitch was a huge fan of him there, and it is dry nukem I'm talkin' about. Louis, any temptation.
00:42:30
Speaker
Um, Indraft is probably someone I might take a late fly on. Uh, he's getting big raps out of the Hawks. He's just a bit of an awkward price point for me. So this probably, um, I don't know at the top of my head, four to five guys priced around that, that I'd be more confident in, that I've seen more from, uh, for that reason I'd go them, but I can see a world where John Newcomb does, um, have a bit of a breakout season. Well, he is certainly a potty pot, pot, pot, potty pot, pot, potty pot. Uh,
00:43:00
Speaker
Thanks everyone for listening to another episode. As a Silver or Gold member of the Kepa League, that'll give you access to our in-season weekly Pod Pod. Also, it gives you stacks of premium resources on the Kepa League website, including advanced centre-bouncer tendencies, state league fantasy numbers, draft D numbers, kick-ins,
00:43:22
Speaker
a lot of stuff for your fantasy research this preseason. You actually even get the best AFL fantasy spreadsheet on planet earth as well, which heff has put together. It's got a ridiculous amount of information for you, for your drafts, for your classic, just whatever you want to use it for. He's got it there. It's fantastic. So check that out. The link for that will be in the podcast description. So sign up and join us in season for the podcast. Thanks again, Stado and Louis for joining us for another episode of the Pod Pod. All good.
00:43:51
Speaker
Pleasure.