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OFFICIAL 2024 AFL Fantasy rules released! PLUS: 'Opening Round' and the new positions! | #PODPOD
395 Plays1 year ago
The Official AFL Fantasy podcast has dropped the brand new rules for season 2024 following the AFL's bizarre decision to introduce round 0 into the mix...
It has massive implications for AFL Fantasy coaches who now need to navigate four extra bye rounds ahead of the usual mix of mid-season byes. So, what did the AFL Fantasy platform do the help coaches navigate this mess?
Join Dos, Lewy, Holmesy, and Harmey as they discuss all the new changes and the potential new early season strategies that AFL Fantasy coaches need to think about.
Want to sponsor us? Hit us up at podpodafl@outlook.com or find us on X via the links below.
Follow us on X:
PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Dos: @HKdos
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
Introduction and AFL Fantasy Overview
00:00:03
Speaker
you
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's your boy Dossi here talking all things AFL fantasy this Monday night, December 11th, 2023.
AFL Fantasy News and Updates
00:00:31
Speaker
Some massive news dropping today, courtesy of Warnie. Cal and Roy at Traders HQ talking about what the fantasy season will look like next year. So we had to get the gang back together to break it all down, but it was a stormy day in South Australia.
00:00:47
Speaker
power though was certainly not out down in Alberton over with some massive news for the new captain of your beloved pair, Louie. How are you, mate? I'm good, mate. It's funny you mentioned that because I have been worried about my power maybe going out. It's not the not the best grid system here in South Australia, but some good news coming out of Port Adelaide with Connor Rosier's captain. I'm pretty happy about that.
00:01:14
Speaker
thoughts on the eight year contract as well mate, Kane Corns, probably not too happy despite it being his boy. Yeah, look, a lot of things can go wrong. But you know, if you could sort of say that you can lock up your best player for the rest of his career, I think most people would say yes. So yeah, I'm pretty happy with that.
00:01:34
Speaker
Now I've also got a man, don't know what the weather's like down in Tassie, but Hami hopefully got some inside goss from his boys, the traders over there. How are you, mate? And looking forward to some of this fantasy news that has been dropping in our laps today.
Team Introductions and Season Outlook
00:01:48
Speaker
Oh yeah, I've definitely been keeping an eye on it, mate. It's been, yeah, it's been really good. About 30 degrees down here in Launceston today, so heating up everywhere.
00:01:59
Speaker
Gee whiz. And we've got our favourite bridesmaid of 2021. It is Holmes, either runner up back in the day. How are you, mate? Yeah, good. Thanks, Dossie boy. Can't help but notice that the g'day welcome to the pod pod was a little bit flat today, though. Is that because we've been trying to do a few new things down here and you're a bit frustrated, Dossie?
00:02:18
Speaker
Thanks for the, yeah, for the little segue there. We are trying a new recording format at the moment. Hopefully the audio is not too bad compared to the crispy old recording format. But yes, this was about the 15th attempt to get going. So it was a bit flat of the intro there. Hopefully we could pick up as we go, potentially some audio
00:02:40
Speaker
format as well if all goes well. Fingers crossed. People will be able to see that on the YouTube channel potentially if I manage that. Some video format, mate. We provide audio at the moment.
00:02:52
Speaker
Yes, well, I'm looking to do a bit of both there, Lou, so we'll wait and see if that all comes to fruition. All right, well, getting into our hot topics, I think straight
AFL Fantasy Season Changes
00:03:02
Speaker
away. So just to let you know what the program is, obviously, we're going to go through what's dropped today, what the traders have let us know about what the season is coming up. If you haven't already checked that out after this show, of course, go check out the traders new podcast going through everything that is going to happen. We're going to break it down and look at what the season is going to kind of
00:03:21
Speaker
be looking like but before we do get into the hot topics i just wanna know when you heard about the fixture this whole round zero business going into round one. What did you think initially before we now know what is gonna look like what were your thoughts army heading into this year from a fancy perspective.
00:03:39
Speaker
Oh look, I wasn't really blown away. I just think it's a bit of a money grab for the AFL and I was in principle and not really impressed, but oh look, I've come around to the idea mate and I think that Warnie's adjusted some good changes. It'll make it user friendly for everybody and that's important for us. I am a little bit concerned though mate at the moment that we'll end up with some similar teams in the first few rounds, which I don't love the idea of that.
00:04:05
Speaker
Yeah, it'd be interesting to go through each of the rules and how they affect it. Yeah, I think my just initial thoughts, I was pretty devastated thinking about what it's going to be for fantasy coaches. Obviously, Stato not with us on this episode, but the great man was pretty excited with all the chaos coming his way. I think he's going to be one that looks forward to all these new changes. But yeah, Holmes, I want your thoughts as well made as a former way up towards the top of the end, towards the end of the year.
00:04:32
Speaker
You know what your thoughts before heading in we concerned for the fancy format.
00:04:38
Speaker
Uh, I was actually a little bit excited. Uh, anytime we get footy back early, um, I'm on board with that. It's not the best, best time of the year at the moment to not have it around. So the fact it's going to be back super early.
Strategic Implications of Round Zero
00:04:49
Speaker
Um, I'm happy with, and yeah, the more I thought about it, you know, there was a few models floating around where maybe we get a free hit for round zero and then, you know, it gets wiped going into round one, but I thought that was going to be too, too different. So yeah, not playing round zero is definitely going to cater for the masses.
00:05:06
Speaker
maybe there will be some similar teams. I'm not really in that camp at the moment. I think it actually probably opens it up for a little bit of variance with some people that want to play it more traditionally and others like Louie that want to take a bit of a punt with some strategies we'll get into. But yeah, I honestly don't mind it. And I'm sure there'll be some other comps. I know that Selby at Moreira's Magic is already floating, having his own separate comp for that round zero. So there'll be a way to play fantasy regardless, which is good. All right, Randy. Yeah, Lou, let's get your thoughts before we crack in.
00:05:35
Speaker
Oh, look, Dossett sort of is what it is for me. I think the Covid season and a couple of years ago really desensitised me in terms of what can happen in this game. So sort of have to take it as it comes and and work our ways around it because, you know, we enjoy playing fantasy and I don't think any of us going to stop just because there's some silly buy around to start the season. So bring it on, I say. All right, now it is time to get into our hot
00:06:03
Speaker
hot topics for the week. As I mentioned, we are going to cover hopefully everything that was covered by the traders, but just in terms of going into what we think about these changes. So again, if you want the full details after this one, just jump on and listen to Warnie and the boys discuss each one. But let's go through
00:06:20
Speaker
The first one so as we've kind of just touched on classic and draft But we're talk about classic on this show is going to start in round one Which they've introduced the round zero this year to go ahead of that round one Which will be a few of the teams that are playing before that So we found that yes, we won't be playing fantasy footy until round one, but
00:06:41
Speaker
Round one prices will be factored inside so the round zero scores are gonna be factored in after that round one game so. Will walk us through what this means for us do you think or what are your thoughts on this decision.
00:06:59
Speaker
It's an interesting one it's something that is a little bit familiar about I think it was nearly 10 years ago now there was an opening round where it was split across two weeks so the prices didn't change and were able to actually look at some players and what they were able to do but this time around it seems that across round zero we can watch who is playing and who might be
00:07:23
Speaker
playing over the next six weeks as well as that in order to sort of give us a better idea of what they are capable of doing. So I've sort of gone a really roundabout way of saying that, but essentially round zero, you get a free hit to look at the players that you might be interested in and then trade into them round two, knowing that they are going to get a double hit of a price rise post round one. Does that make sense?
00:07:50
Speaker
Yes, I think it makes sense. Holmes, are you going to attack this in a specific way this year? You've got to be using those players as that audition for round one and then pretty much beat. Do you reckon we're going to be loading up on these players though? Is that pretty much, that's as what Harmony was alluding to. Some teams are going to look pretty similar in this first, our opening teams anyway.
00:08:11
Speaker
Well, Dossie, what it is going to do is that any rookie that plays in round zero, for any one of those sides, we're going to get a look at their role in an actual AFL game compared to these practice matches that have, you know, 25 to 28 players on a list. This will be full-blown, best 22, best 23, whatever they go with the players on the bench.
00:08:32
Speaker
And if a rookie comes out, say like a K Chandler did this year and scores 100 in that first round zero game, it just means that every team in the comp will have that rookie. That's a given. But where the variance will come is where, say, I'll just throw a name out there, say Kitty Coleman comes out in round zero and he scores well.
00:08:52
Speaker
Do coaches decide to jump on him for round one knowing that he has a buy in round two? Or do they take a punt and potentially fade him in that round one and try to jump on in round three after he's had his buy? Because we do know that the magic number is at its highest in those first three rounds. And if he's missing a price rise in round two because he's on a buy, then that could potentially have you a bit behind the pack. So that's something we need to work through, but it is pretty much guaranteed that if a rookie pops off in that round zero game that we'll all have them.
00:09:21
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, is there any players we can think of, Hami, and I'll put you on the spot here, mate, but I'm going to, I'll read out some of the teams. Is there any players that you'll be keeping an eye on outside of a Kitty Coleman that, uh, Holmes, he has mentioned there. I don't know if that was a bit of a sneak peek towards Holmes. He's back on there, but Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton.
00:09:40
Speaker
Suns, Richmond, GWS and Collingwood are all playing in this round zero game. This is on the 7th of March is the first game that we're going to see this season on the Thursday night.
00:09:53
Speaker
Yeah, I can throw a few names at you, mate. I think that it's not really the premiums that we'll be focusing on. It's the mid prices and the rookies. So people like Marty Hoare, Connor Buderick, if Zach Williams gets a game, it's that sort of player. I think that we're looking for a bit of a bump from that round zero score.
Early Season Rules and Their Impact
00:10:18
Speaker
and the rookies obviously too. Yeah. All right. Let's get into the next point that they touched on on the show. So the best 18 is going to be counting for rounds two, three, five, and six. So obviously with this round zero, then there's some teams that don't
00:10:34
Speaker
that sorry aren't playing that round zero as well. So we, to catch up in rounds two, three, five, and six, we're going to have those buyers from the round zero teams. So in those games, it's going to be best 18 with two trades per week. So not going up to those three trades, like we may have thought might've happened, but like there's only two teams on the bar on those games. So make sense to you, Holmesy, do you reckon that's a good call? And how do we navigate this part of the season as well with, you know,
00:11:03
Speaker
all these early buy-arounds coming into play.
00:11:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's a fantastic call to be honest. I remember back in the 2020 COVID year, and obviously it was under extreme circumstances, but when the game opened back up in round two, it was three trades a week. And it really just helped out those coaches that were a little bit behind and missed in their starting squads and the extra trade. It didn't really reward the coaches that had a good starting squad and nailed their starting pick. So I think a very sensible decision is to go with two trades a week. We don't want
00:11:35
Speaker
Our upgrades to happen too early, there still needs to be a lot of skill in the game to be able to get to those upgrades early. So I think the two trades a week is a good decision and Best 18 is definitely the way to go as well to make sure we maximise participation in the game and we don't lose too many people early.
00:11:52
Speaker
What it does open up for is strategy. And Louis was talking about this off the top before we started recording is, you know, is it a year where we go back to guns and rookies because we know that if we've got a best 18, we're not going to be as reliant on those rookies to maybe get into our best 18 scores. And that way we can maximize those points on field early, which I think once again, there'll be coaches that go about it different ways. But, you know, getting out a jump early and getting some good scores is going to be, you know, probably a pivotal strategy.
00:12:23
Speaker
Yeah. It's going to be going to be an interesting time of the season. Does anyone else have any thoughts on that? I mean, Louie, are you, are you pretty similar? I mean, you know, I'm just touched on your point, but you excited about this early part of the season. I'm just like toward the top of the show, I think we mentioned, like I was kind of worried about this whole setup. I just, do you think we're going to lose a few of the more casual players early in the season? And what would you say to those casual players to keep an eye on in this first kind of five weeks in terms of navigating this?
00:12:54
Speaker
No, I don't think so, mate. We shouldn't be losing casual players that early. It's essentially a bit of an easier game, really. You've only got to field 18 players each week, essentially. Obviously, you want a full team of green dots. But I think what they've implemented here is going to be friendly enough to casuals. And I think it still provides enough of a challenge to the coaches that
00:13:16
Speaker
maybe think about the game a little bit more deeply to start planning ways to sort of rise above the rest. So I think they've met a nice little middle ground here.
00:13:28
Speaker
Let's get on to the next point, which is just to do with the salary cap. So we do see this change regularly tends to go year to year and sort of reflect the way the salary cap moves in the AFL to try and get that little bit of realism in there. So the salary cap this year is 15.8 million, which has gone up, I think it's around 300K from last year, but presumably they scale up the players as well, which
00:13:51
Speaker
sort of doesn't really make too much of a difference although we do know that there is that magic number that kyle alluded to earlier where you can kind of figure out what players can be priced at before those official prices come out but how me. Talk about talk us through what this means for us salary cap was fifteen point eight million they've already announced that you know tim english is gonna be the most expensive plan as you should be.
00:14:15
Speaker
And then the rookie pricing as well, it's going to be 300K for your number one pick in Harley-Reed, the most expensive rookie. Then it's going to go down around, I think it's $3,000 per pick. So then 297K for your second pick and so on down the list. So Colby McCurture will be 297K Harley-Reed, 300K. And your most expensive player, Tim English, over that $1 million mark.
00:14:41
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. Look, I don't think it means a great deal because the salary cap has gone up, as you say, Dossie, but everyone's prices have kind of gone up proportionate to that. The only one I noticed listening to the traders today that wasn't was those basement rookies.
00:14:58
Speaker
absolute basement rookies being 200,000, that 200,000 hasn't gone up. So potentially you get a little bit of benefiting those guys, but geez, I don't know how many we'll have that are in that price bracket at the moment, having a look at the rookie draft and the AFL draft. So yeah, that was the only real takeaway from me. That doesn't mean a great deal at this point, but yeah, the magic number 9-0-3-2-3 or something like that. 9-0-3-0, yeah.
00:15:28
Speaker
Yeah, we can now start to price up, start forming our teams and get a good indication of who you're going to be able to fit in, which is cool. So for any new player, Holmsey, how do you go about using that magic number 9030 if you haven't used that magic number before?
00:15:45
Speaker
Yeah, so if you do want to start formulating a bit of a team, I wouldn't even worry about the magic number. What it all basically works out to be is 1749 total points that you've got to work with. So if a player averaged 100 last year, then that's 100 points that comes off that 1749 figure. So keep it pretty easy.
00:16:05
Speaker
Obviously, the game will be opening up some point in the next couple of weeks. So if you want to just build your team, then you can. But as Harmony said, everything's been scaled up a little bit. But from what I can see off what I worked out last year compared to this year, the total points is very similar. So building a team this year will be very similar to last year. So what was your magic number, mate? Are Holmes' special magic number 1749 total points? Yeah, 1749 total points.
00:16:36
Speaker
All right, good to know. So, James, he goes on his own math. I love that from you. No, that's a good way of thinking of it. Let's go to the next hot topic here, which was just basically letting us know as well that those DPPs, our dual position players, so players that get additional forward status or defender status or whatever, usually those are the ones we care about the most, won't be happening until after round six.
Player Updates and Pricing Strategies
00:17:02
Speaker
So, they came to us last year after round five.
00:17:06
Speaker
But the other ones are going to stay the same. So the ones later in the season are staying the same. It's just due to that early game that they're not coming out until after round six, Hami. Yeah, so Brody Grundy will get forward status in round seven then. That's what you're saying, Dossie? Or round eight, round eight then? Well, if you say so. And Max Gordon, he'll be forward as well. Tristan Cherry, they'll all be forwards, right? No?
00:17:33
Speaker
I mean, if you say so, mate, we're going to need them up forward because it is sparse down there, which we'll be talking about shortly in our positional, talking about those positions. But yeah, it is pretty sparse down forward. I know you're desperate for a couple of forwards, Hami, but I don't know if we're going to be able to get those guys in our forward line this year. Well, that's pretty much wrapped up. I don't know what else, was there anything else that you guys wanted to cover in terms of strategy or in terms of like what these new rules mean? I think
00:17:59
Speaker
Like you guys said, I think they've done a pretty good job. Like I don't know how I would have done it better myself in terms of how to sort of navigate this situation. Bit of a stitch up on us AFL fantasy coaches with this round zero. But Hami, you've got some thoughts. Look, I was just going to say, we're still stuck with those crappy by rounds in the middle of the draw though, which is a bit of a shame. That didn't change. And I don't think we've heard anything from the AFL about the sub rule, which I'm actually really interested to hear about too.
00:18:29
Speaker
Yeah, a couple more things to play out. Presumably though, those middle buy rounds will still be played out the same way as well. So we'll still get our three trades during those buy rounds just because there's more teams on the buy. It's just those early ones where there's only two teams on each of those four rounds in the early season that we won't manage to get our three trades, which is fair enough. Louis, sorry, were you going to say something there, mate?
00:18:54
Speaker
Yeah, so I was going to say, having said all that and all the information we now have, does that affect your thoughts on how you're going to start your team this year? You know, it's only December at this point, and there's a lot of water to go under the bridge. But does that change your thinking in terms of the starting squad, guys?
00:19:14
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Louis, we sort of touched on it off the top, but I would find it really hard to start a premium that at a minimum has a buy and round tour around three, knowing that you're going to be giving up a premium or two to the rest of the comp when they're on a buy.
00:19:31
Speaker
rookies obviously aren't going to matter. You just swap on another rookie and you might only be giving up five to 10 points on any given week, maybe even in mid price. But if you're taking a premium off and having to sub them on with a rookie, then you could potentially be losing 40, 50, 60 points on the rest of the comp. So those are the players that are going to, you're going to struggle to pick early doors. I still haven't quite gone through it all in terms of round five and round six. I think there's a little bit to play out there. You know, six rounds is still a long time.
00:20:00
Speaker
But yeah, at a minimum, I think those round two and round three by players, premiums are going to be hard to start.
00:20:06
Speaker
Yeah, well, as I said, I think that those premiums that are playing in around zero is probably the concern at the minute and still means that Patti Dowell well and truly in the mixed-offs because the Saints don't play. Absolutely, mate. Certainly in the mix. So just to recap that as well. So round two, it's Brisbane and Carlton that'll be the teams on the buy. In round three, it's the Gold Coast Suns and GWS Giants. So what you're saying, their homesy is someone that
00:20:35
Speaker
I will talk about in a minute who's potentially got that will who has that forward status and could be a breakout player in terms of sam flanders. You might avoid apply like that or is it more just the premiums that you're talking about so guys that could still make a bit of cash in the first couple of weeks would you still be looking at those guys.
00:20:54
Speaker
Yeah, look, Flanders is a tough one because we all saw what he did in the last six games of the year and everything's pointing to him being potentially the number one forward. But yeah, with that buy in round three, it's tough. You use an example of a Sam Walsh who priced at 95 or whatever, we all know that he should be a 105 plus. And in any given year, that's the type of player you like to start in your starting squad. But knowing that he has a buy in round two,
00:21:19
Speaker
I just think it's fraught with danger. If you have a Sam Walsh on a buy and then you hit with a few other injuries or forced trades, then you could be giving up two, three premiums on the field against everyone else and you're right behind the pack. So I think in a Sam Walsh example, it's probably safer to try and trade into him in round three or round four if you can.
00:21:36
Speaker
rather than starting in. So am I right in saying, just because I didn't listen through, I didn't really read the full, the full sketch of how it's going to play out. Lou, if Walsh gets 150 in this opening round and then in round one, you know, we see him get a hundred or 110 or something like that, is he going to have both of those scores
00:21:59
Speaker
priced in, so he's going to have some walloping plus however much dollars come round to, but obviously he'll be then missing that week. Is this is how it's going to work? Is it going to be like doubled up? I believe so. I think so. Do you know about that, Homsi?
00:22:15
Speaker
No, I wouldn't think that it works like that because all of the break-evens have to remain consistent. So I would have thought if he goes 150 in round one and then goes 100 in round two, I would think that his price would be off a 125 average. I think it would just go off the average with the break-evens not changing after round zero. I would have thought. Oh, yeah. That makes sense.
00:22:37
Speaker
Okay. Yeah, that makes sense, actually. Yeah. Good point, Holmes. He always switched on, mate. Always switched on. All right. Let's get into some of the positional stuff because we have been away for over a month now and we found out in that time that we're away what the positions look like. So we just wanted to take a look at some of the big names and some of the big names missing from the list. So I'm just going off the article on AFL.com that was released around that month ago and just looking at our top forwards based on average that are still
00:23:06
Speaker
Fords this year and it's our mate. All of our mate, Jack McRae, who's now listed as the number one forward. I think we're all sorry owners at one point or another last year, apart from Louie who's shaking his head. Now, Louie, as the only one that's not butt hurt from Jack McRae last year, will he be an option you're looking at in 2024?
00:23:30
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely he will be. This was his worst season just about since his debut year. I think Jack McRae has got a lot more to give. I think it's an important year for the Bulldogs, obviously the vice captain as well. I think it was about 45% mid-clock that he got, so if he can get that back up to 60%, I think there's a natural
00:23:51
Speaker
Improvement there but i look for a guy who's gone one of four across his career price that ninety two in a line where we're really struggling for options i think you're paying a fair price for a fair player there and add the upside of course is if he does bounce back to proper mid clock which we saw a couple of years ago then potentially we do have a,
00:24:12
Speaker
sort of 100 plus averaging forward which is an easy pick. So at this stage and keeping in mind that I wasn't burnt last season, I actually like Jack McRae as a forward pick and I think he's one of the safest options we've got to be honest. I saw Hami leaning towards the microphone several times there just wanting to chime in about Jack McRae. What do you want to say mate? Get it out.
00:24:33
Speaker
Look, as much as we think Bevos bit off the show at times, I'm actually warming to the idea of both McRae and Bayley Smith. We knew it was going to happen. We talked about it last year. I mean, I'm all about Bayley Smith potentially, to be honest, but Jack McRae, it's just the wounds. They're too recent. They're too sore, still homesy. And I see you now leaning towards them, wanting to get something. What do you want to say?
00:25:03
Speaker
I just want to ask Kami then. All right, so if Jack McRae and Baz are both going into that midfield, who's going out? Is Bont going out? Is Libba going out? Trelore, maybe I could say it, but for them to go over a hundred, which we need them to, one of those guys is going to have to take a serious step back because there's just not enough mouths.
00:25:24
Speaker
I'm just not prepared to say that this is the beginning of what jack mccray is like for the last sort of ten years he's put up one hundred and five one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty two for for christ's sake so a ninety two is a little bit down on his usual output but i don't think it's gonna get much worse than that with the forward status you can hide behind that a little bit and
00:25:45
Speaker
like I said the upside is you are getting a 100 plus averaging player and if he goes on and does that then at the end of the year you probably do feel a little bit silly if he does achieve those heights because priced at 92 it's clear value but obviously a bit of a crystal ball here and yeah maybe you guys are right and it's exactly what he does for the next couple of years in that role.
00:26:09
Speaker
And the other thing with Bailey Smith is not much went right for him last year, like compared to the year before. And he's out of contract. If the Bulldogs want to keep him, I think they will be being pretty nice to him.
00:26:23
Speaker
All right, a few things to think about in our forward line. Didn't even mention the other players. So we had a Dustin Martin, Caleb Daniels up there now, Sam Flanders, as we mentioned, priced at the 89.6. So just under 90, and he was came blistering home at the end of last year. But now we've got that very early buy. So a lot of things to think about. A few other guys, Toby Green, Dylan Moore. You've got a lot more traditional kind of forwards as well coming up there. It's going to be an interesting year for the forwards, looking forward, Holmsey.
00:26:55
Speaker
Yeah, it could be one of those years. I think it might have been the COVID year and I just know this because I remember talking to Selby about it when he went through that year and did really well. It could be one of those years where we don't look to start many of those top-priced guys because we don't know how it's going to fall and maybe we take a punt at a few of these guys priced.
00:27:15
Speaker
in that sort of 50 to 65 range so that we can get a good look because, you know, every year we get these DPP guys coming in that are, you know, somehow they just play forward for the first six weeks. Think of Josh Kelly, Luke Parker, you know, some of the Bulldogs players evolved that, you know, are end up being the must haves. And if we've, if we start too many of these guys, like we did last year, then maybe we might be shooting ourselves in the foot. So I'm not sure who those guys are at the moment. We haven't seen roles in pre-season, but
00:27:44
Speaker
Yeah, maybe we just need to look and hunt for a little bit more value, almost draft style, rather than paying up for the big dogs, the perceived big dogs and looking for value that might go past them. Yeah, I like that, mate. I think that you may sort of be chasing a bit of value instead, and people like Cam McKenzie, Roger Hewitt, Jai Cully, Jack Hayes, that sort of cheaper price may be where we land with some of those forwards.
00:28:09
Speaker
All right, yeah, just looking at a few of the players we did obviously lose, Errol Goulden, Tim Taranto, Connor Rosie, Josh Dunkley, Steven Canilio, Zach Butters. So it's all the players that were basically stalwarts of our team last year, all becoming mid-only. Whereas Harry Shiesel, who was a very popular rookie, only becoming a defender now, because he was just mopping up off the back line, obviously.
00:28:32
Speaker
So, Lou, any of those forwards that Dossie's just identified as getting the chop, you still think are going to be a really good option as a mid only? Like a Tim Taranto, somebody like that?
00:28:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. Yeah, Zach Butters obviously was sort of, you know, a major step up in 2023. I think he's going to take another step again. Priced at 100. You can really make a good case for improvement there. Kind of rosy. You're probably going to get more of the same. That 105 plus, Tim Taranto 110 plus, I think. A lot of these guys were such stalwarts in our team in 2023 because they had the role. They were
00:29:11
Speaker
pretty much centre-balanced midfielders with the exception of Errol Goulden. So I think these guys can be started in the midfield and you might even be able to sort of take advantage of this seems to be a bit of a trend in the fantasy community where maybe somebody loses their DPP and gives you a little bit of a bad taste to pick them as a mid only the following season but I think the people that do identify a player who's clearly got the role and is going to keep replicating that
00:29:39
Speaker
they're going to be, they're going to be very useful for you. I've got my eyes on the guy, the two guys you didn't mention as you sort of re relayed them off. Yeah. The Josh Dunkley for me, I think it's just a guy that's gone 170 last year in his second year at the lines as well. I don't know. He's, he's in my early plans. So if that's any indication of my past performance, probably avoid him, everyone else, but I'll be looking at, I'm looking at Dunkley and I'm also looking at, he's got the round two by mate. He's got the round two by. He's off my list then.
00:30:09
Speaker
You said I could go the Sydney guys, though, because they're around five, with Errol Goulden, so I might just go him the only non-centre bounce midfielder, as we mentioned there, more of a wingman.
Player Evaluations and Defensive Picks
00:30:19
Speaker
Okay, let's look at some of the defenders as well for this season that we've got.
00:30:24
Speaker
and retaining defensive status probably the big one is Nick Daikos despite getting a lot more center bounce usage towards the back end of last year now Nick Daikos I'm sure well probably was in most of our squads last year I would imagine but
00:30:41
Speaker
I want to throw to you, mate. What's your thoughts on him taking his game to even another level this year, even though he's had 108.8 average in 2023. Could he be the number one defender again? And Willy, would you see him back in that guts this year and just really taking his game to a new level?
00:31:01
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely does. He's the front runner at the moment to be the D1. We've got Sicily there priced at 105, but that's the first year that he's been over 100. He's generally a 95 guy. And you would think with the Hawks improving, maybe they don't chip it around as much back there. So he definitely is.
00:31:20
Speaker
However, with the last two years that he's had, the attention is going to keep coming. He's just going to have to keep fighting through that. They got the round six by, I think, and with the Hawthorne matchup in round four,
00:31:35
Speaker
Maybe it's pretty hard to start him, but he's definitely the front runner to be D1. Round five. Yeah, round five. So even earlier. So he's going to be one that divides the community because most years we would just pay up to start him. Think of Sam Docherty of last year and the year before we all started Sam Docherty because he seemed like he was going to be the very clear D1 considering all the other options we've lost in a Dawson, in a who else do we lose? There's one other that I can't. Yeah, that's a look at that one.
00:32:04
Speaker
Funny though, we're just going to have to get used to these buyers and having them on the mind all the time. Oh, it's round five, round three, round two.
00:32:18
Speaker
Louis, I mean, I think Stado before has talked about this in terms of maybe not thinking about stuff too late. I know that the buyers now have shifted up, but so do you think the round five and six ones you like, are we going to ignore them almost? Or are they still, as, as Holmes, he said, like a day cost. Would you be really considering not starting a guy that's priced that highly? Would you just avoid premiums altogether? Like the, the real top gun premiums, unless they've got cash to make, I mean.
00:32:47
Speaker
I think we have to consider it, yeah, Dossy. He's still got the buy, so he's still going, if he averages 110, he's still going to have 110 less points by the time everybody sort of evens up. And then it's sort of open slather, I think. So still not having worked through it myself. I'm not sure how it's going to work, especially with those rounds you identified. Round five and six, I think, are going to be the tricky ones.
00:33:13
Speaker
Whereas I think most coaches will just totally avoid one, two and three. So yeah, it'll be interesting. I think as much information as we can provide and as much speculation that we can sort of talk about, it's going to be really hard to narrow down.
00:33:32
Speaker
Just think about it this way, Dawson. This might be the maths teacher coming out of me, but the way Louis said it, so say Daikos goes at 110 for his first five games. So he scores 550 points over the first five, but he has a game that he misses. A player that plays all six and doesn't have a buy, if they average 90, they're still scoring 540 points, which is only 10 points less. So if you're able to find someone to go close to that, that's also gonna have their price go up and make money for you then,
00:34:00
Speaker
maybe that's the way to go. So there is a little bit more to it. And obviously you can trade out of a day cost in a perfect world. If he goes at 110 for the first five and then you trade him at his buy, then you are going to make those points. But we do know that we get a lot of force trades early and it doesn't always work out that way. So that's where the strategy is going to come in.
00:34:18
Speaker
Sorry, sorry, I was just going to say, I think that's the big thing, isn't it? So every single year, there's so many variables that we we just can't control. There's injuries, there's suspensions, there's omissions, there's, you know, who knows what. And I think if you're going to start too many players that do have a buy around across those first six weeks, you're introducing an extra variable. So you're going to have to be a man down on a certain week and you're not sure whether or not you will have
00:34:48
Speaker
necessarily all your green dots playing, which is going to affect the bottom end of your 18, which is going to affect your top end too. So the top 18 system, I think there's a lot of strategy to it through these buy arounds. So I'm almost leaning to a scenario where I'm going to minimize almost entirely the teams that are playing in round zero and sort of go from round one onwards.
00:35:11
Speaker
Yeah, got it. It's almost like a brainstorm as we go right now. It's very fresh information. So yeah, we're going to have to get our heads more around these, which teams are playing the by rounds early. Obviously we've mentioned them as we go, but just to remember those as we're talking about each player, as I've already forgotten a few times, which players.
00:35:29
Speaker
eligible or not. It's going to take time. It's early. We're in our pre-season as well, boys. But like, uh, Holmsey, the players you're alluding to other than Jordan Dawson were Sam Docherty who, um, lost offensive status as well as Will Bay, who was a popular option last year. So yeah, we have lost a few, a few players back there. All right. Well, I think that's pretty much, we don't want to have too long a, too long a show at this point of the year when there's not stacks to talk about, but, um,
00:35:56
Speaker
Obviously, some groundbreaking news today. We had to jump on the mics and get to some of this news. So, keen to talk through it more as things plays out. As news comes to hand, shout out to our mate Pete from AFL ratings. I want to get to one more thing from the socials, which is also something that starts ramping up now. The social media managers getting
00:36:18
Speaker
very busy this time of year taking lots of snaps of those preseason time trials i just wanna say has there been anything that stood out to you guys. On the socials on the x if you will i'm at pod pod i fell by the way if you wanna follow us on that platform but let's do a little bit of around table i don't want you guys to say you haven't seen anything because.
00:36:40
Speaker
You have, you would have seen something that's caught your eye already. What's been the one thing, the one hype post, the one shredded photo of one of your favorite players that stood out to you the most this preseason so far early that it is in December 11th today that it is. Let's start with you, Louie. I reckon you've seen something. You've got excited on the old X.
00:37:04
Speaker
No, honestly, I haven't. It's the beginning of December. I think there's a lot of a lot of social media posts out there that from the clubs themselves, they want engagement from their fans and and they know the fantasy coaches especially are going to give it to them. So they're definitely providing the content.
00:37:22
Speaker
It's really early in the pre-season to get too excited on any individuals, but I think you do naturally have to sort of take little notes when you see them. So if you see maybe somebody you were keen on a couple of weeks ago and he finishes top three in the time trial pre-Christmas, you do take that as a good sign for things to come, but I think that's a question that I'd prefer to answer maybe on the other side of Christmas.
00:37:48
Speaker
That's boring, Luke. Come on, mate. You saw the rosy captain photo today, mate, and you locked him away on your side first. Yeah, you're right. You're right. Just watch out for Tobi McLean in the mid-season draft. You'll be cheap. All right. You bring us out. Come on, mate. You've got something, surely. We'll leave Holmsey, the notorious, very happy man that he is for last year.
00:38:10
Speaker
Yeah, the seeps of stuff. I've been keeping a little bit of an eye on it, mate. Thank you. Those time trials, I reckon there's a spot in that Saints midfield and I saw Marcus Windager, I think he came second in their time trial, so 2K, so he's looking fairly fit. Yeah. Toby Bedford took out the GW West time trial easily. I couldn't believe it. But he finished in the chasing pack, so that was good to see. But the one I did know, this is the one, does he?
00:38:39
Speaker
Newsflash, Elliot Yeo injured. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. No, I actually, Marcus Windhager has to already be one of the early hype men of 2024 though. I've seen plenty of... Oh, he got the number two. He got the number two as well. And he got the number two. There was a big media thing about that. Yeah. Huge news. Yeah, Hami, I thought you might have mentioned your boy Nathan Kruger with Dan McStay going down with an ACL.
00:39:09
Speaker
No, I didn't say that. Was that on X? Was it, Luke? Yep. Yep. You posted in the chat. It was the first thing you did. Savage from, uh, Hami. Holmes, what did you want to say about Marcus Windhager?
00:39:22
Speaker
Yeah. Well, I mean, just if, uh, if anyone's looking for a bit of pre-season content to go through, just go to the friend of the show, Stevie Fizz at the draft doctors, he spent about 10 minutes ripping Marcus Windhager to shreds.
Preseason Player Hype and Social Media
00:39:34
Speaker
He is not a fan. So, uh, maybe go have a listen there, Dossie, and maybe stay away from, from Windhager.
00:39:42
Speaker
What did he say? He can't get a touch, he can't touch the ball, it's all... Yeah, what did he do? He went through and he took all of the players' CBAs and he calculated how many times they actually won a disposal from a CBA and Marcus Winhager was like 2 from 110 or something. Worst percentage in the league.
00:40:04
Speaker
Well, I've got to say one thing that I've been troubled by and worried about is the lack of hype since arrival of one Patty Dow. The media, like all this attention on Windhaker and all these other players, like we've just said, there's not enough Patty. Unless they're just holding off and waiting for the build up a bit, just wait for that hype to build.
00:40:30
Speaker
Yeah, that's been a concern for me. But I think one thing, another saint actually, funnily enough, maybe the saints are just the team this year, our team to look out for on the socials, really pumping them up. But one player that I was surprised by.
00:40:46
Speaker
is seeing a man train that I was not expecting to train at this time of year. And I think Hami got excited about him maybe last podcast. One Zach Jones running around this time of year. Gonna be cheap, Hami.
00:41:04
Speaker
Yeah, he's under 50. I can't remember what I priced him at, but... Oh, God, he's got a good injury record, doesn't he? He gets about three games a year for the last four years. Running around healthy this time of year. Good science, Holmesy. Round us out, mate. Who's your hype man this early?
00:41:21
Speaker
I don't have a hype man, but I'll go with the social media theme that I thought we were doing, Dossie. I'm going to throw it to, yeah, throw it to, to harm his beloved Essendon. There was an article that caught my eye from Fox Sports heralding the Essendon bombers because apparently the players took it upon themselves to fund a player trip to America. Breaking news. Players have to pay for their own overseas trips. Would you believe it? I did say that. Those bombers are built different.
00:41:51
Speaker
I did see that. I will give you one because I did read an article today as well. Your one was Kruger. Colby McCursher, who's the number two draft pick, was flagged to maybe potentially play off half back. We saw that Harris Sheasel did that pretty much off the back of no experience at half back in his juniors. So Colby McCursher, who's known as a bit of a pig in the junior,
00:42:19
Speaker
Junior level I expect him to be a pretty handy fantasy player if he does get that rolled across half back and This early on you probably can put him in your midfield. Yeah, that's shout out to Calvin too. That is his boy I remember they were over here for their for the DT talk live tour and
00:42:38
Speaker
and this is when was that like March last March 2023 or something like that and after a few froffees Calvin pulls me aside says look out for this guy next year and at the time he wasn't even projected I think he was projected at like pick 15 at the time and he's gone skyrocketed up to number two I know he's obviously a Tassie boy
00:43:00
Speaker
They're humming so I think Calvin had something to do with him but yes picked it early said he's gonna be a star so yeah that's a shout out to Calvin there but pick from him. All right well that'll do it I think lads for the pod pod this early in the December times but exciting times ahead for fantasy coaches.
00:43:19
Speaker
As I said, slight concern for me on the casual front. I wonder how casual coaches are going to go navigating it, but I think as we've pointed out across the show, you know, I think they've done a fantastic job of trying to limit that as best they can. I know there's also some really good draft.
00:43:35
Speaker
settings that have come in as well, that will, you know, keep draft coaches keen. I think some of the more premium features are now available for free, like you're adjusting scores to try and get through this period, which will be really good for coaches as well. But look, any closing thoughts before we sign off, lads? Throw it to you, Lou. You're going to sign us off this time, mate.
00:43:57
Speaker
Closing thoughts, just process all the information. Obviously we're processing it still now. I think there's no right answers this time of year and there's going to be an interesting pre-season ahead as we sort of figure out what we're going to do with our team. So put yourself in the best position to succeed. I reckon if you are on Twitter, if you're following all the podcasts and listening to all the information as it comes to hand, then you're going to be in a good position to sort of set your team up early and
00:44:27
Speaker
All the podcasters and I'm sure the Twitter fantasy community will help everybody out and figure out how we're gonna navigate all this. So yeah, just keep updated and I think it's not gonna be as bad as what maybe we think. We thought it would be a couple of weeks ago when we found out about the fixture.
00:44:44
Speaker
All right, and just to finish off, make sure you follow us on X at Pod Pod AFL. Potentially if we get this YouTube stuff up, you might see a YouTube link out there. Follow us on there if we do end up doing that. Also, please leave us a rating or a review, depending on what platform you're on, on Apple or Spotify or wherever you're listening. It's really gonna help us this pre-season to get our show up and running. So please go do that. Otherwise, we'll hopefully see you soon.