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2024 Strategy feat. DT Lemon | The Holmes Files Ep. 1
980 Plays10 months ago
In this new PODPOD series, 2021 runner-up and dual top-10 AFL Fantasy finisher Kyle 'Holmesy' Holmes will be joined by esteemed guests from across the fantasy community to dissect the upcoming fantasy season from all angles.
In episode 1, Holmesy is joined by last year's 32nd overall finisher and 2021 third-place winner DT Lemon. A master of team value and strategy, DT Lemon reveals his thoughts on early bye-round strategies, effective squad-building techniques, and what to do with the lack of forward line options in AFL Fantasy.
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction and 2024 Outlook
00:00:19
Speaker
Good day and welcome to this special edition of the
Introducing DT Lemon and AFL Fantasy Relevance
00:00:22
Speaker
Pod Pod. This is Homzy here and beginning the first of our interviews that we're looking to do in 2024. And I thought I'd start with a man that's been there before. He's got multiple hats. He's famous for building a squad like no other. And let's be honest, we're going to need that this year with a game that's presenting us a different strategy that we've seen in the past. I've got DT Lemon with me. Lemon, how are you, mate?
00:00:47
Speaker
Very well, thanks mate. Thanks for having me on. It's always great to chat fantasy with you. Another multiple hat winner. So yeah, really excited. New year, new challenges that come with AFL fantasy this
Squad Building Strategies and New Buy Rounds
00:01:00
Speaker
year. So yeah, I'm really excited to get your thoughts on a few things and maybe you'll shape my team a little bit in January now as well. So yeah, can't wait.
00:01:11
Speaker
Yeah, look man, I just had to get you on then going in knots a little bit this pre-season trying to figure out what kind of strategy I want to go with in terms of building my squad and with these new early round buyers, I thought there's no one better than yourself. I've been chatting to you a lot over the years ever since we were in the top 10 together.
00:01:29
Speaker
You just know how to build a squad and I'm really looking forward to picking your brains and seeing how you want to attack this season. But just for some of our listeners that might not know who you are, why don't you just introduce yourself and give us a little bit of your AFL fantasy background and success. Sure, mate. Yeah. So DT Lemon, I've been playing fantasy for all different formats for many, many years. But the last three years, I've been a bit more classic focused.
00:01:58
Speaker
So I came third three years ago. Last year, two years ago, I had a bit of an off year finished in the top 300, but didn't really have a challenge for a hat. And then last year was back up there, finished 32nd.
Value Plays and Team Building Strategies
00:02:14
Speaker
I think it was. I'll just check the number. Yeah. So there was a good year again. I mean, number one was a long way away from me. So it's, it just sort of shows how hard it is to get into that top 10 or even win the car. But,
00:02:26
Speaker
Yeah, had a few good years and Yeah, I guess my focus the last couple of years has just been creating Some value plays and making sure you get those those big cash generators. So I think I'll be doing something similar this year, but It's still only only the first of the first of the year only January So plenty of time to decide on who's going to be in the starting side
00:02:51
Speaker
Yeah, look, you're very humble, mate. You've had three very, very good years, and even a top 300 finish is still phenomenal in this day and age. And for those of you that don't know, so Lemon came third back in 2021, conveniently when I came second, but he was famously known for having a team value that was one million more than any of us in the top 10.
00:03:13
Speaker
and in my opinion he was easily the best side in that and he just had an unfortunate round 23 which many was pipped at the post so he's very very good at building squads and getting that team value up and then charging home so it's going to be very interesting to sort of pick your brains and to figure out you know with your learnings from previous years whether or not you're looking to attack the season the same and you're not really going to
00:03:36
Speaker
focus too much on the buyers or whether or not they're giving you a little bit of an outlook. So let's start there. So we know that we've got eight teams playing in round zero and that these eight teams are going to have a buy somewhere between round two and six. So give us a little bit of an insight, Lemon, in terms of just start with seasons gone by. What are you looking at when you are building a squad and then how do you sort of plan to use that knowledge to build a squad this year with the buyers that we have?
00:04:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to be a fascinating year, I think, because we've definitely had the buy situation before, but in the last couple of years, we've gotten used to having 10, 11 weeks before that first buy round comes around. This year, we'll get one week of fantasy, and then we'll have two teams off on the buy. So it's incredibly challenging to know what the best strategy is, and I think there'll be a few different strategies that people employ.
00:04:29
Speaker
I guess normally when I'm building a starting squad, you're just looking for value. So you're looking for value in your top picks, your middle range picks, and then obviously all of your cheaper players, you're looking for big, big value there. And value for us is that first five, six, seven weeks, that's when you make a lot of your cash and then moving those players on and
00:04:51
Speaker
doing some upgrades. So it's going to be very interesting to see, particularly with the price movement, I think those guys who play in round zero may have faster price increases from the sort of start of the season. So I don't think we can ignore them. We definitely have to have some of them in our sides, but it is going to be challenging because you probably don't want too many from each buy round. So I think it's really just about picking a balanced side.
00:05:19
Speaker
you might need to trade into some of these guys after their buy, but also if they're presenting really good value, you get to see them in around zero in the role that they're probably gonna be playing for the whole year, and you're gonna know what one of their scores is in their rolling average.
Early Round Insights and Team Decisions
00:05:35
Speaker
I think I'm gonna be picking probably more of them than most people, my gut feel at the moment. So yeah, I'm not too worried about the buyers. You might drop a few points early,
00:05:47
Speaker
But I think if you get those value guys in early from the start, get that first price rise, I think you'll catch up to a lot of teams later on who maybe had to trade into them or maybe missed out on them altogether because we all know what happens in fantasy. You can make a great plan to trade into someone in round two or round three, but a couple of injuries hit, someone gets dropped, you've got to hold a fill and all of a sudden your two trades are taken. So yeah, I think gut feel, I won't,
00:06:17
Speaker
As long as I don't have too many players from a particular buy round in those first couple, I probably won't be using that too much to pick my players. The only caveat there, if you've got three or four from the same round, you're going to struggle to field a decent 18. So what do you think, mate? How's your head out at the moment with the buy rounds?
00:06:38
Speaker
Yeah, so let's just dive into that a little bit as well because I think it's probably important to distinguish between the buy rounds as well because I think there's a difference between the round two and three buyers and the round five and six buyers. I think, especially if we're looking at rookies in mid prices,
00:06:54
Speaker
There's going to be plenty of price rises between round zero and round five and round six that if you are starting those players, I think there's scope to be able to trade off of them even maybe slightly early. But I think we need to distinguish that there's a bit of a difference between the round two and round three players. So let's just dive into that a little bit. You said, well, you put a bit of a number on it. You said sort of three or four, but at this stage, you'd be happy to maybe start one or two players from round, the round two or round three by, given that they perform well in round zero.
00:07:24
Speaker
Yep, yep, I think that's the case. And we've also got to be thinking, you know, I think first of all, those top premium players, so if you're picking a guy that's fully priced and he's got the early buy, I don't think that's a play
Mid-Pricers and Their Strategic Importance
00:07:39
Speaker
there. I think you want to be picking guys with value, so they're generally gonna be a little bit cheaper anyway. It might be a mid-price player, it might be a rookie. We just need to make sure we're gonna have enough to fill 18 there. So I think that round two and round three buy,
00:07:54
Speaker
You can jump into guys, as long as you don't have too many, you can jump into them, just coast through. You might be able to trade one or two of them early if they fail, but realistically, you're gonna be holding those guys through their buy. They're gonna be making a lot more cash before you trade them out. But I love your point around those, the guys playing around five and six buy, you're gonna get, what's that, four or five price rises between then. So last year I had James Walpole and my team, I think I only got two price rises out of them and then I traded in
00:08:23
Speaker
And I was very happy with that. He made 80K. He was a mid-pricer. He scored some points for me. That was really all I needed. And I got off early. And I think with those guys playing in round five and round six on the buy, you could probably do something similar. Look to offload them round three, round four, round five. And if you don't have too many of those guys, that's going to be fine. So that's probably how I'd look at the buyers. I think it's a great point. You're differentiating for sure with the round two and round three, and then the round five and round six.
00:08:53
Speaker
Yeah, so I think that the consensus is pretty clear at the moment, at least for a lot of the guys that are putting out content at the moment. And you did say pre-show that we tend to all kind of sell a lot of the same narratives because we're all hearing it from each other. But I think it's pretty clear that, you know, we're all going to get a very good look in round zero at roll. So any rookie that goes well in round zero, most good coaches are going to jump on that straight away because they know they've got a guaranteed price rise.
00:09:19
Speaker
and a guaranteed score. Although they're not going to get the points, they know that that's in the rolling average and even the mid prices are the same. But yeah, not starting any fully priced premiums knowing that they've got to buy, but if they do have value, you're more than happy. So let's just throw a name out there just because he's a bit of a buzz name, but Sam Walsh. So priced at 95, he's had years of 109 and 103, and we all expect him to take a big jump up this year off the back of a, at the moment, healthy pre-season and taking control of that team.
00:09:48
Speaker
you'd be more than happy to start Sam Walsh in your starting squad knowing that you're only going to have him for one game and then he's got to buy. Yeah, he's a really great example and a very interesting one. I think obviously, for me, the probably question is what does he need to do in round zero for me to pick him to be in my round one side? So for him, I'm thinking, you know, if he if he gets the full full time inside mid-roll, you know, 80% CBAs, he smashes out a
00:10:16
Speaker
I don't know, 120, 130. And he looks great, looks fit, firing. He's that key part of that midfield. I think it's gonna be pretty hard to say no, because you never really know what's gonna happen. Round three, you might not be able to get him in. And then all of a sudden, he's got up 100K, and that's 100K you're losing throughout the year. So that's probably 10 points a game. If you take that over the next 20 odd rounds, you're giving up sort of 200 points just because you were too stubborn to pick him at the start. And we're gonna get that look at him.
00:10:46
Speaker
If you're comparing him to someone like Luke Davies Uniac, who maybe has a similar upside, we don't get a look at him first. So there's so much more uncertainty with these guys that haven't played around zero. You've got to be very, very confident that you're going to get the same production out of them as a Sam Walsh, which is going to be tough to do.
00:11:07
Speaker
I think if I was a coach, I'd just be sort of setting a line for yourself. What does Sam Walsh need to do for you in round zero so that he stays in your side or you bring him into your side? If he comes out and scores 110, maybe you wait a week, get another look at him and then you can always look to bring him down in the future. He's not going to have a massive price rise if he's 110, maybe even 120, you could get another look at him.
00:11:32
Speaker
Yeah, it's gonna be a really interesting one. You've also got to look at which other players from that round two by, do you have any starting squad? If he's the only one, then you could probably carry him. If you've already got two or three from those teams that you're planning on carrying through their by, then maybe he's the guy that drops out or maybe another guy drops out and you keep him in. So yeah, I think that, hopefully that makes sense.
00:11:58
Speaker
Yeah, no, it absolutely does. You make a good point about, you know, comparing him to an LDU, right? So we're not going to get a look at him in round zero. So you are taking on a little bit more risk if you do decide to start him over a Walsh. But at the same time, fantasy is a risky game and we, you know, in an ideal world, he puts up the same numbers as a Sam Walsh and he doesn't have a buy. So then you're looking at potentially, you know, if you're having to swap Sam Walsh with a rookie, you could be looking at 50, 60, even maybe more points there.
00:12:27
Speaker
I started off when it first happened, when the buyers first came out, I thought we needed to avoid all premiums that have their buy and look to maybe take on a little bit of a riskier attitude and try to trade into them a little bit later.
00:12:42
Speaker
as I've sort of been thinking about it a little bit more, I think you are right, especially with all the injuries and suspensions and whatnot that we've seen early days in AFL fantasy. If you can't get him in and he does end up being that sort of smash pick who's a top eight mid that you can get for a 95 average, then you might be behind the eight ball just because you've tried to get a little bit tricky with it. Yeah, I think the other one is as well. If you're sort of banking on bringing him in around three, there might be another guy, maybe LDU plays really well as well.
00:13:12
Speaker
smashes out 140 in round two, you want to bring him in as well. So there's going to be other options to bring in. There's always trade targets. There's always, particularly earlier in the season, you're not going to struggle to find someone to bring in. Your problem
Buy Rounds Strategy and Team Structure
00:13:23
Speaker
is you're going to bring in two of them and you've got to try and work out which, which two of the most, you know, most fundamental to, you know, your team value skyrocketing. So if, if I'm 95% sure Sam Walsh is going to be that, that guy, the 110 guy, and I see that in round zero,
00:13:41
Speaker
I think I'll just lock him in. I'll take a bit of a points hit in round two, but I'm expecting to catch up because there'll be a lot of coaches that won't be able to bring him in or they do bring him in and then miss out on someone else that I'm jumping on. So yeah, it's going to be interesting. And it might be a bit of a swing in the rankings. You know, we see every year the teams that start in the top thousand aren't necessarily the teams that finish in the top thousand. I think this year in particular, there's going to be a really big swing come the end of the year for people who didn't really pay too much attention to the buy rounds.
00:14:10
Speaker
Yeah, that's actually a thought. You just reminded me a thought I had during the week actually. We hear it every year that, you know, not these buy-arounds but our traditional buy-arounds that there's a lot of fake rankings throughout the buy-arounds because a lot of people just sideways trade premiums and they don't actually improve their team coming out the other side. And I think there's actually a little bit of scope for that to happen this year as well when
00:14:30
Speaker
more casual coaches or even someone that just wants to take on a little bit more risk decides to sideways trade premiums throughout the buys to get you know a few more points on field which is important but at the end of the day it still is a race to get that completed team and we do need to be smart with our two trades each week during the buys to make sure that we are you know able to start upgrading in round six round seven
00:14:53
Speaker
all the way through to the buyers otherwise you will get stuck so that's a fantastic point you make as well and I did like the point as well that you made you were speaking about the fact that you are probably looking to take on more round zero players than most coaches will just having a checklist for players that you are keen on
00:15:11
Speaker
Making sure that you don't get swayed by round zero scores for players that you haven't really thought about because we see it every single year Players come out and they have a blitzing round one which will be round zero now and we get tricked by those scores So I think it's really important to make sure that you're not just putting in a player just because they've had a good round zero If they're not someone you're really thinking about would you agree with that? Yeah, definitely I think and
00:15:34
Speaker
There may be some sort of price limits to this as well. So if it's a rookie that comes out and just blitzes round zero, we can jump on. If it's one of the cheaper mid-prices comes out and blitzes it in round zero, again, you can probably jump on them, just work the price rises and then get rid of them. But it's those sort of under-priced premiums or premium players, you know, let's not get sucked in because they have one good game. Let's look at, I'd probably more look at the role, you know, where do they get their touches? Is it repeatable?
00:16:06
Speaker
There'll be a few upsets in Round Zero. There'll be some guys moving around or maybe there'll be a couple of guys who aren't playing due to injury or whatever it is. So it's always really tough. I think the good thing is normally those pre-season games suck us in, but they're not sort of normal games of football. They're maybe a bit more outside. So you get sucked into a guy like Jordan Clark. Whereas I think Round Zero will be, that'll be hard football, lots of tackles.
00:16:34
Speaker
a bit more similar to round one and the rest of the rounds. So I think hopefully there won't be too many of those guys who really try and suck us in. But I'm sure coaches will be changing their teams a heap after round zero, which is very, very scary.
00:16:51
Speaker
Yeah, it really is a cheat code, right? Like, I can't remember a time where we've actually had a chance to look at some real AFL games to be able to change our team. So it is going to be interesting and maybe it does present opportunity for a lot of coaches to have similar sides, but then we do know that AFL fantasy is a trading game. So just because we have similar starting squads doesn't mean that you can't find an edge later on through your trading, which does kind of lead us into our next sort of strategy talk. So let's talk.
00:17:18
Speaker
The buy rounds, rounds 2, 3, 5 and 6 are going to be best 18, which means that we're going to be far less reliant on getting these rookie scores on field, knowing that a lot of them are going to drop off. Admittedly, it's going to be very different to the traditional buy rounds that we have because our squads aren't going to be anywhere near as complete, so we are still going to be relying on some pretty filthy rookie scores.
00:17:42
Speaker
Is that having any effect on how you're looking to build your squad? There's a bit of a debate going on at the moment whether or not we go traditional or whether it kind of reverts back and we look at a more guns and rookie strategy knowing that these rookie scores are going to drop off and we look to boost our top end. How are you looking at it at this stage? Yeah, I think it's really interesting, you know, the four of the first six rounds you're going to
00:18:07
Speaker
you're gonna lose your worst four scores on field, which is amazing. So there's gonna be rookies that dropped 20s and 30s. You can just say goodbye to those ones. But I think it definitely does make it a bit more attractive to go guns and rookies because you're gonna get, if you only have two rookies that need to play, you can bank on a couple of 70s or 80s and that's it. But I think it's still such a long season and
00:18:35
Speaker
It's a value game. You want to get your team value up as quickly as you can, as high as you can. The quicker that value goes up, the faster you're going to complete your team. And from the middle of the middle of the year, you're going to start chasing up the rankings. So I think we still need those mid prices that can pop and can really... I mean, we saw last year, some of the mid prices actually gained cash faster than the rookies.
00:19:00
Speaker
If they had a few big scores, they actually could really shoot up and then they drop a bad score, you trade them out. You've made your 100, 200k, off you go. So it's going to be a real balance. I think, yeah, I think definitely you're right. I think you could probably go a little bit more rookie heavy. So maybe you have seven rookies on field this year instead of six that you might've had last year. So that's definitely an option, but
00:19:27
Speaker
You know, it's so dependent on which rookies are there. You know, if we've got rookies, heaps of rookies that are going to play, you know, pump out 40s, I don't think that's the play that you need guys who are actually going to still be able to score 50s, 60s, 70s and get you some points on the field and get you the cash gen. So, yeah, not sure on that one.
00:19:49
Speaker
Yeah, I still think there is scope to pick your mid prices. They're the competition winning picks. Very rarely do we get a Harry Schiezel, Nick Daikos. They just happened to, who was it, a Brisbane rookie, Ashcroft from this year. Very rarely do we get those players that
00:20:08
Speaker
rookie price that score in line with premiums it's your mid prices that you know go up 40-50 points that score in line with the premiums that really accelerate you up the rankings and I don't think we just discard them just because we have best 18 for four of the first six rounds it's a like you said it's a long season and we still are going to have to build our squad so I'm definitely not looking to go full guns and rookies but I think you are right that there may be a scope to start maybe one more than
00:20:35
Speaker
than we really would. I know I used to start an extra one two or three years ago when the game was played a little bit differently. But yeah, I think there still definitely is scope for mid prices. I think they're super important. And if you can stretch your under-priced premiums and your premiums out to maybe 14 or maybe not 15, then you are only looking at sort of three rookie scores on field. And you can even loop your rookies as well during the buy-arounds if you've got
00:21:02
Speaker
players like, say, you've got Taylor Adams on a buy, you can have two cracks at a rookie score on field as well, knowing that you can loop there. So that's something that hasn't really been spoken about too much in the community at this point, too. So it is going to be interesting. So building your squad. Have you started building your squad yet? I have. Yeah, I've got a bit of a... I think I've actually got something like one million or two million in the bank. So it's a bit of a value team at the moment.
00:21:31
Speaker
I haven't looked at where I would spend that cash, but there's definitely a few questionable players that I'd need to upgrade. So yeah, I think it's, we were talking before, it's really easy this time of year to get guys in your team and just lock them in and they sit in your team for two, three months and then come round one, you're reluctant to get rid of them because they've been sitting in your team all pre-season, you've grown attached to them. So I try not to
00:21:58
Speaker
look at my team too much. I'd much rather look at the stats, you know, put it in a spreadsheet, put it in a notes, try and sort of separate yourselves from your players so that if, you know, if they have a bad pre-season game and the roles not there, you can go, yeah, I'm getting rid of them. That role isn't there this year. You know, maybe put them in the watch list for later on, put them in the watch list for next year. It's very hard to do that if they've been sitting in your team. So yeah, I've got a team.
00:22:27
Speaker
It's got some player names in it, but it'll change so many times between now and there. I guess I'm really holding out to see which guys make it through preseason as well. Any guys with interrupted preseason, I'd love to see them go this year. I think previously we start a lot of guys who have injury concerns. Maybe they do some live work up until February and then they start main training. I think we've got to avoid those this year because
00:22:55
Speaker
We've seen it just doesn't it doesn't result in great fancy scoring if they're a little bit on fit come the start of the year Yeah, no, I couldn't agree more I think Interrupted pre-seasons are a big no-no about with senior players I think you know most of them are gonna be just done on modified programs right up until Christmas anyway But as long as they're starting to integrate into main training early January, I think you're right But like you
Player Upside and Position Optimization
00:23:20
Speaker
said if they're
00:23:20
Speaker
If they're still not in main training come February then they're definitely behind the eight ball and even if they do suit up for round one they're going to be sort of chasing their tails a bit and trying to get that match fitness. So that's a great point. Let's dive into, you made the comment you've got a bit of a value team at the moment. So when you are looking for value, how much sort of points upside are you looking for? Does it differ between backs, forwards and mids? Do you look for more in the midfield knowing that they generally score higher? What are you sort of looking at?
00:23:49
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. So I think there's been some stats that have come in the last couple of years that on average, you need about 20 points upside from each of your players. Now, obviously, you're gonna get a couple of rookies that do 40, 50 plus what a cheese will do, maybe 60 or 70 last year and what he was priced at. So you don't need every player to get 20, but I think 20's a nice sort of rule. On average, you wanna try and find 20 points per player. And so for me, I'm thinking my middle-priced players, I need about 20 points upside
00:24:19
Speaker
So those sort of mid-price players around the 400 to say 700K mark, I'm looking for about 20 points upside. If I don't think they can do that, if they're priced too high or the roll they're in, I just can't see them hitting that 20 points upside consistently. I think you just have to say, look, it's better off putting a rookie in that position and trying to find an under-priced premium. In terms of premiums, if you think they're guaranteed
00:24:47
Speaker
to be top of their position and yet maybe five points upside, I'd almost consider that a win. If you can lock a waste best 22 player with a little bit upside, five to 10 points upside, I think you can lock that in. But in terms of the under priced premiums, I'd probably consider them 10 to 15, 10 to 20 points of upside. So a lot of the guys on my team at the moment are guys that I think the top priced players I think have at least 10 points of upside in them.
00:25:15
Speaker
maybe they're a best 22 player, maybe they're not, maybe they're just outside best 22, but I think if you get that 10 points from your premiums and then you're getting 30, 40 points from your rookies and you're getting maybe 20 points from your prices, I think you can build a car winning team.
00:25:31
Speaker
Do you think 20 points of upside is enough from a mid price midfielder? So let's just say, I'll just throw a name out there. Let's say a Patty Dow, just because we're on the pod pod. So I'm contractually, I have to say his name every podcast. So I'll just get him in there for.
00:25:47
Speaker
for now. So hey, priced in the low 50s, would 20 points for him be enough in the midfield, knowing that the midfielders score more? Or do you look for more in the midfield? I do a grade 20 points for your forwards and defenders is definitely good and anything above that's a win, but is 20 enough for a mid-priced midfielder? Yeah, it's a great question. I think, yeah, maybe you're right. I think in the midfield you're probably looking for a little bit more, so
00:26:14
Speaker
all the way through rookies mid prices and premiums. We should have plenty to choose from in the midfield. So yeah, I think 20 points, maybe a little bit unders in terms of a midfield mid-pricer. A guy like Patty Dow, you probably need 25, 30. But also I think if you get to the, just before round one and there's a guy you like, you think he's got 20 points of upside in the midfield,
00:26:38
Speaker
I wouldn't be opposed to picking them. If they pop one or two big scores, they could really rock it up in price. And I think those guys, particularly in the midfield spots, you may be not looking to hold them all that long. So, yeah, James Warbur is a great example last year. I think, you know, you could have held him for two weeks, three weeks, you could have held him for 10 weeks. Most of the cash generation happened in that first couple of weeks.
00:27:03
Speaker
and then you have to wait for a few big scores to really jump up. So a guy like Paddy Dow, if he comes out and scores 110 in the first week, all of a sudden that's a smash pick. Doesn't really matter if he only averages 20 points upside for the rest of the year. That's going to shoot his price up. You can trade him round four, round five, and he's done his job. So it's going to be really hard and you're going to have to compare against your other options. So if it's a Paddy Dow versus a rookie, who's the rookie? How much upside do they have? Where are you spending your cash and is that cash going to be well spent?
00:27:35
Speaker
Normally what I like to do is just sort of rank my players in terms of upside and just make sure you're getting most of those high upside guys in your team. So Patty Dow's competing against other mid prices in the midfield, but he's also competing against the premium players in the midfield and the rookies in the midfield. How do you balance your team is really, you know, one of the best eight players you can have on field in the midfield with the two on the bench.
00:27:58
Speaker
Yeah, it's a good question. And probably that'll be an interesting one. I think he'll be a guy that drops off a lot of teams if you see a good rookie play. But, you know, we've seen mid prices can really pop a few good games and all of a sudden they're making more cash than the rookies anyway. So it's going to be really interesting to see what people do.
00:28:19
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, that's a fantastic point you make just because you look at the end of the season and the player was only sort of 20 points above their average for the year. But, you know, maybe they did go at 30, 35 points for that first four or five games and you've made your cash and you've jumped off. So it's not always just as simple as that. I suppose it's more important if you are looking to hold them long term. So maybe let's just talk about, because I've always struggled in this range a little bit. So let's talk maybe an LDU who's priced at 97.
00:28:47
Speaker
you'd be looking for about 10 points, right? So 10 points minimum would get him to a 107, which would have him more than likely just outside the top eight. You're probably looking at that sort of eight to 15 range, but if he goes above that, he's a top eight midfielder. So that's about the value you're looking at for someone priced sort of between that 95 to a hundred range. Yeah, I think it's a really hard one. I think for those guys priced at that, I'd probably take five points upside to be honest.
00:29:17
Speaker
I think it's really hard to find premiums with upside. And I think this year, we see it every year. We think we've got guys, you know, like a Jim Simkin last year, we think we've got these premiums with, oh, they've definitely got five points, they've definitely got 10 points upside, and they flop. I think if you can get a guy that's, you know, you're pretty confident is going to have five points upside, you take that.
Premium Players and Consistency Considerations
00:29:40
Speaker
But yeah, obviously, that's not going to win you a car, you know, it might
00:29:43
Speaker
It might help you get into the top 100, it might help you get into the top 1000, it might help you win a league, but if you want to win a car or you want to win a hat, you're going to need to pick guys with, you know, an LDU is going to need to go up 10 points. And you're probably going to need to keep him throughout the year. You know, he's going to have to be a top 8 midfielder or close enough for that to be a good pick. So, like a car winning pick. So, yeah, it's a really tough one. The other thing we've got to think about is, you know, consistency.
00:30:13
Speaker
Are they going to play 23 games? I think it is 22, 23 games. You know, LDU, the classic example, you might have 10 points upside, but with his injury history, maybe you need a little bit more from him. If you're looking at someone else who's a bit more reliable, plays every game, you know, like a Rory Laird, for instance, you're pretty confident he's going to show off the 23 games. So I might take a little bit less upside from him.
00:30:37
Speaker
You've got to look at the buy-arounds as well. You know, someone from, I think, Freonport have the good buy-arounds this year, so if there's a premium who I think's got five points upside but comes from one of those teams with a good buy-around in the middle of the year, I might put a little bit more emphasis on that. So, yeah, it's a tough one. Yeah, 10 points is a pretty good rule, I think, for those premium midfielders. If LDU goes 105, 106, 107 plus, I think you're happy.
00:31:06
Speaker
Yep. Fantastic point. What about someone? Let's throw two names out here. So a Matt Crouch priced at 80 and then you've got a Jai Simpkin priced I think around 77, 76. So relatively similar. Give or take five points. What would you be looking at for someone like that? Because if, you know, I've got my number, but I'm interested to hear what you think because you say it slightly differently, which is definitely fantastic.
00:31:32
Speaker
Yeah, they're two real doozy names there, mate. I sort of get the fantasy shivers when I hear those players talked about. I think those guys, you know, if they're not going to be a keeper, if they're not going to be like an LDU close enough to that top eight midfielder, all of a sudden it's a mid price, so you're looking at 20 points plus upside.
00:31:55
Speaker
I think Matt Crouch priced at 80. You need him to go pretty much on 100. Simpkin very similar as well. You need him to go 95 plus. And you probably need them to do it early on as well because if they don't, you're going to be trading them out. So it can't be one of these ones where they have a good back half of the year. They're out of your team if they don't start performing straight away. So that's the other thing with these mid prices, you know, it's maybe you've got to look at fixture. Do they have a couple easy match ups? Are they firing fit at the start of the season?
00:32:25
Speaker
Is the role there at the start of the season? You know, these guys have to come up in price really quickly and they have to do it pretty much straight away or we're going to trade them and Once they start scoring points after you've trade them, it doesn't really help you. So Yeah, 20 points upside for those those midfield is probably what I'd go you are you similar you or you want a bit more from those guys?
00:32:49
Speaker
Yeah, no, that 20 number is pretty good. I think for, yeah, you need them to be close enough. They're definitely not going to be top eight mids, but you're right. If they're priced at 80 and they, you know, they mess around for a bit and they go, you know, 90ish around that mark.
00:33:04
Speaker
it's going to derail your season a little bit not because you're going to be going very poorly but you're right it's not going to win you a car they're not going to be performing badly enough that you trade them out but they're also not going to be scoring you well enough that you're keeping up with those good sides so yeah you'd really need them to go simpkin yeah 95 plus and crouch
00:33:21
Speaker
Yeah, I'd probably be happy with you know, sort of 98 around there I think I think he is capable of that but I think that's the number you'd sort of be looking at that you can you can slide them into ma and then sort of trade them up around there by or just after when you're Really going up to the big premiums, but that they are tempting picks You don't have to have every single one of your picks end up being the car winning picks because there's not that many of them you do need to build your squads out with these type of guys, but I
00:33:47
Speaker
But yeah, they are. They can derail you very quick. You think of a Dom she'd last year. Admittedly, he was priced a lot lower. But he was one of those picks that kind of got you in no man's land where he wasn't scoring poorly enough that you really needed to trade him out. If you didn't, if you if you didn't have the trades, you couldn't anyway. But he's not scoring enough to really put his price up to get him up to 21 decent either. So, yeah, lots to lots to think about. But all I got from from you just then is that you don't like LDU. You're LDU hater.
00:34:18
Speaker
I don't mind, I don't mind it with you. But I had him last year and he burnt me. I held him way too long. He killed me on that late withdrawal. So I think I've still got a bit of taste in my mouth from having him. But hey, I love the guy. I love how he plays. I think he's an absolute jet. For me, I think, particularly with the Premier midfielders, my rule this year is you've just got to pick guys that look like they're
00:34:43
Speaker
uh, you know, just absolutely firing fit top of the game, because we see it, we see it time and time again. And that to be an elite midfielder in this competition, you need to be in amazing shape from the start. Um, to back it up week after week, you know, the, the running they do, the tackling they do, it's, it's really, really demanding. And it's the second they get that, you know, they're not fit enough where they get a little niggle, um, their CBA's go, they start resting forward.
00:35:09
Speaker
They get less time on ground and anything like that. When you're picking a guy to average 110, any small thing that happens there, you know, they get rested forward in the last quarter. You know, that's, that's enough. All of a sudden that guy goes from being a really good pick to being a, you know, average pick. And, and you got to get rid of them more. You've got to hold them until they're by, which is a long layaway. So, um, yeah, I think that's my rule this year. You know, if the older you comes out and you looked great,
00:35:36
Speaker
He's super fit and he says he's had the best pre-season of his career. I'll probably jump on, but I've got to hear those words from his mouth, I think.
00:35:46
Speaker
All right, I'll throw you under the bus here. Obviously, you don't have to give too much away, being that it is only January 1 that we are recording this, but who are some of these midfielders that you are looking at at the moment, at the sort of top end? Because I'm actually finding it, there's a little bit of value there, but especially at the top end, I'm finding it quite hard to find some standout players that have, you know, extreme value, but at the same time, trying to navigate these
Emerging Talents vs. Seasoned Players
00:36:11
Speaker
buys as well. So who are you looking at?
00:36:14
Speaker
Yeah, it's a really tough one this year. I think there's a lot of names around, but there's not those obvious names I think we had last year. So, you know, last year we had like a Tom Green who everyone knew was going to take the next jump. You know, the preseason reports pretty much from the start said, yeah, he's ready to go to the next level. He's the number one guy and he comes out and he does that. And it was a great peak. So I think,
00:36:42
Speaker
This year, at the moment, I've got a bit of a flavor there. Some of those kind of up and coming gun midfielders, you know, the young premium midfielders in the comp. So, guys like a Walsh, Andy Brayshore, maybe even Tom Green again. The buy round is a bit of an issue there, but maybe even a Newcomb, maybe a Matt Rowell I've even thought about.
00:37:08
Speaker
Some of those guys in that sort of 20 to 24, 25 bracket, who I think can just take their game up to the next level, get an extra 10 points, and become a top eight midfielder. They're the kind of guys that I'm looking at, but yeah, it's a tough one, because I don't think any of them, I mean, Walsh is maybe the pick of the bunch, but I don't think he's a guarantee by any means, and the buy-around is an issue. So, it's a, yeah.
00:37:38
Speaker
I guess that's, if those guys come out and they're really fit and they're playing well in pre-season and I think they're looking like they'll start the season hot, I think some of those guys I might have in my team. Any of those names scare you or you got some similar things in there?
00:37:54
Speaker
It's just interesting because I've always, and it's the way I've played enough, or I just need to be better at it. I've always been more drawn to the elder statesman that's done it before that you can find the narrative that they can go back and do it again. So that would fit more of them. You know, a Jack Steele mold or, or took Miller. I'm not, I'm not interested in took Miller because of his buy around, but that, that type of a player that's been up there, um, that you can, you can sell yourself the narrative that they had a bit of an injury interrupted year and,
00:38:19
Speaker
they weren't at their best and they can get back to it and I've never been as good as at picking the the young and upcoming breakout player they always scare me a little bit more even at Tom Green last year I traded into round two because I just wasn't wasn't sure but you are right I think there's scope this year I think we're looking at a new wave of of talent coming through all those names you mentioned I think are
00:38:41
Speaker
are going to be going to be pretty good and should improve. One that, you know, you didn't sort of mention is one of the port boys. So whether that's a Connor Rosie or a Zack Butters, I think there's probably scope there for one of those boys to take their game to a new level as well. But I suppose it's always scary when you're having to pay a hundred plus price tag at a bit of a leap of faith there rather than
00:39:03
Speaker
something that you've seen before. I'm always sort of drawn to what I've seen before. What about it sort of the more top end? So you did mention Tom Green and for the record, I'm a big Tom Green man now as well, but it's just unfortunate he's got that round three by because he does open with North and West Coast. So for the adventurous coaches that think maybe they'll start with that,
00:39:23
Speaker
and then potentially trade him and maybe try and get him back in. I'm not advocating it, but it could be a bit of a play. But what about at that sort of top end at your M1? You did mention Andy Brayshaw, but is there any other players up that end that you might be looking at? Maybe like a Rory Laird or something like that? Yeah, I think it's a really tough one. I think last year, I think I started with Steel and he burned me a little bit, had that injury and didn't really do what I thought he was going to do.
00:39:52
Speaker
It is tempting just to lock away a captain option. I think this year, our captain option probably will be our M1 to start the year. Last year, a lot of people had the rucks that were good captain options. We had some defenders. We had some forwards who were really great captain options. This year, it's probably going to be your M1, M2 that are going to be your captains early on.
00:40:16
Speaker
I think there's some really dicey names in that upper echelon. You've got Clayton Oliver, I think. We've all talked about him. Jordan Dawson had a blinder of a year last year. Can he do it again or do it even better? Zach Merritt's pretty consistent. I don't think there's upside there, but you know what you're going to get from him. Gordon's a really interesting one. Is he going to sit down on the wing or is he going to be in the CVAs?
00:40:43
Speaker
He could be the guy that goes up to that next level, but he'd need to have the right role. So you need to see that in the preseason, I think. Yeah, like lead, there's a few interesting options. Lead worries me a little bit just with that. Lead queries midfield if Matt Crouch is playing. There's a lot of names to run through there, and I think lead's getting a little bit older now. And I think that's where I'm heading this year. I think I'm trying to stay away from those guys who are 28, 29, 30.
00:41:14
Speaker
Um, I just think, I don't know, maybe this is just me getting old, but, um, my body just doesn't let me do the same things that it used to. And I'm sure these guys feel it even more than me. So I'm trying to go look for those premium filters who are maybe in that. Yeah. 22 to 26, 27 bracket. Maybe they're coming up to winning a Brown low. Um, you know, the port boys are great example. I think, I think if they take their fitness to the next level, um, and port are looking good, you know, one of them could smash out a
00:41:42
Speaker
You know, 110, 115 season, which would be great. So yeah, it's such an important pick because that's your captain option. And it's also where you put most of your cash. So you've got to spend your cash somewhere. You've got to get the points somewhere. And M1 and M2 are really great spots to do it.
00:42:04
Speaker
So, yeah, you've got to nail these picks. If these guys have 10 points of downside or 20 points of downside, you can pretty much say goodbye to a car, almost say goodbye to a hat as well. So, yeah, it's a big pick. I think, again, I just encourage people, just watch the pre-season, look at who's really feared, look at who's had a great pre-season, and then pick those guys, maybe a little bit younger, who have that natural progression.
00:42:31
Speaker
that are going to take them to the next level, maybe win a brown low or win a BNF or become the number one midfielder at their club, you know, those kind of guys. Yeah, yeah, fantastic. We're not going to know too much at this point in time anyway. We've got players that we think we like based off previous years and what we saw last year. So you're right, we'll just watch the preseason, but it's really good that you've thrown out and we've thrown out of a lot of good names before we finish up on the forwards because that's another big massive talking point.
Ruck Strategy and Player Selection
00:43:01
Speaker
I can't go to the forwards without talking about the rucks. They're always my favorite line. So what are you looking at with the rucks this year? It seems we are blessed with a bit of value, but we know that sometimes value in the past has hurt us a little bit, burning trades in the rucks. So at this point in time, what are you looking at to do with your ruck line? Yeah, mate. Rucks, I think it sets up your team really, doesn't it? Because you can either spend a whole heap of cash there and go, you know,
00:43:30
Speaker
some of the top guys or one of the top guys on the value option, or you can go pretty cheap this year. Looks like we've got a few great options in between as well. You know, guys that maybe you've got the Grundy and Gorn who, you know, they could be R1 and R2 theoretically. So I think it's a really interesting one. I think that value there at this point of the year, I'm looking to go value. I'll probably go two value options. So it'll be two with Gorn, Grundy or Cherry.
00:43:58
Speaker
And maybe even if there's another name that pops up for the first couple of rounds, maybe there's an injury or whatever it is, I think the value is too good to pass up at the moment. But to be honest, Roland Marshall and English are two really interesting names as well. If you want to put some money into a safe captain option, I'd almost be inclined to pay up for one of those guys instead of an M1.
00:44:24
Speaker
because I think, you know, Tim English is still pretty young. I love his game. He's just got a great fantasy game. He's got a great role, a great fantasy game. Theoretically, he could take his game up to the next level. I don't know if he's got 10 points of upside, but if he has five points of upside and you're getting a number one captain option from your ruck line, you know, he's a guy that if I've got a bit of money floating around at the end of the pre-season, I might just put it into my ruck line and go straight up to Tim English
00:44:54
Speaker
and just, you know, forget the captaincy for a few weeks. I don't know what his picture's like, but yeah, it'd be an interesting one. Where's your head?
00:45:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's very interesting. Let me just get Tim English's fixture up because I've had him for a large part of the preseason so far. I think we saw it with Grundy when he first burst onto the scene. He built up to a low hundreds average and then he had to back to back 120
00:45:25
Speaker
120 years so and I saw and Gorn pretty much had the same as well it's a slow build and then they tend to go bang and I think with everything I've seen with it Tim English you're right his fantasy game is unbelievable and it would not surprise me if he has another year like that where he goes even better and
00:45:44
Speaker
They don't have anyone else at the Bulldogs now, which is pleasing as well in terms of they don't have, yeah, they've got Rory Lobb who's going to chop out, but they don't have Jordan Sweet anymore or anyone in the VFL that's putting any kind of pressure on to break into that side. It's essentially Tim English or nothing.
00:46:00
Speaker
I do want to try and start Tim English if I can. He's going to be a little bit unique, but I think that captain option point you make is fantastic. But in saying that, at this point of time, I have gone and I have Grundy.
00:46:17
Speaker
Gorn I really want to start but he has that buy which makes it a little bit interesting and you are right he's 33 now but he doesn't have Luke Jackson or Grundy or any other ruckman at the club it's him or nothing and we haven't seen an 80% ruck Gorn for four years so there's definite upside on that 92 where he can get to I'm not sure but if he can go 105 from that 92 price point then that's
00:46:39
Speaker
That's a fantastic bit of value there. Just back on, I've got the Tim English fixture up. And let's be honest, the fixture didn't really affect him too much last year, going at 119. But he has Melbourne, so he's got Gorn in round one. Then he has Wits. Then he has Eagles, which will now be Flynn. Then he has Geelong, who knows what that's going to be. Essendon, St Kilda, Dockers, Hawthorne. So he actually has a pretty tough match-ups to start.
00:47:07
Speaker
But like I said, it didn't bother him one bit last year. And with the early buys as well, you're going to be able to VC him a fair bit as well. I'm pretty sure he's got a few early games, but then some later games as well. So he's definitely going to be a good captain option. But yeah, I'm unsure at the moment because the Gorn Grundy combo definitely opens up a lot of your structure and allows you to spend some cash elsewhere. But yeah, looking at what Tim English did last year, he was fantastic. I think the interesting thing with English is
00:47:37
Speaker
He's not really a ruckman, you know, he only gets 20 hit outs a game, maybe 30 hit outs a game. He's, you almost need to look at the midfielders fixture for him. So when I think of Melbourne, I don't think of his rucking against Gorn. Yeah, he's going to lose the ruck against Gorn, but Melbourne gave up quite a few points to midfielders last year. And he just, English, when he's playing well, you know, Gorn will drop back and he'll just run around like a midfielder getting little plus sixes here and there. So yeah, he's an interesting one.
00:48:04
Speaker
It'll be really unique, but I agree, you know, you're gonna spend that money somewhere. And if there's no M1 that you really love, I think, you know, if you don't love Daikos, if you don't love an M1, maybe you get English and that's where your captaincy comes from.
00:48:23
Speaker
And there's nothing worse than sitting there, start of the first quarter, and you see your captain being tagged by someone in the midfield. You don't have to worry about that with Tim English. He's never getting a tag. So yeah, I really like the idea of starting English. It kind of goes against
00:48:38
Speaker
what a lot of coaches have preached, but I've been very successful with the set and forget in the past. We've paid up big for Grundy and Gorn in the past, and I can't say why it would be an issue for English this year, but there's still a lot to play out. We don't know whether it's fit and healthy at the moment. We haven't seen anything, so you're right. We'll still have to keep a watch on that. One more thing I'll touch on before we go the forwards. Are you interested at all in a Tristan Cherry? He's been a bit of a buzz name this preseason. I've got my thoughts, but what are yours?
00:49:06
Speaker
I'm very interested. Yeah. I think any, any guy that you think is solo rock at a club, you've got to be, you've got to be watching. Um, and he doesn't really have any competition. I'm expecting him to rock basically as much as he can. So if he's fit, he's got a great role. We saw what he did in sort of limited, um, limited opportunity last year to be solo rock. I think, I think he's a great,
00:49:32
Speaker
a great option at this point. I really like him. I probably like him currently more than I like Gordon Grundy, which I think, I know a lot of people are big on Grundy, but I actually think Cherry might be the pick of the rucks this year. So yeah, I'm a big fan. We have to see how he's tracking and what they're going to do with the second ruck. I think they've got a few guys who could chop him out a bit more than others.
00:49:59
Speaker
Yeah, I think he's a great option. You know, we're really spoiled for choice. And the great thing is as well, if you go with a cherry and he gets injured, you've got a Grundy and a Gorn that maybe you can get up to there. It's a bit less scary or vice versa. If you're going with a Gorn or Grundy, one of them gets injured, you can drop down to cherry this year. So it should be nice that we've got the three options there if you do try and run two. If you're only picking one of them, you know, you've got a lot of flexibility if it fails. So yeah, big fan.
00:50:28
Speaker
Yeah it's a good point you man, actually having that parachute plan. Normally we don't have those easy drop down options to go to or someone just to trade up a little bit to normally if your value option in the ruck fails you're having to cash out a premium somewhere else to get all the way up to the top liner so yeah that's a
00:50:45
Speaker
That's a great point. I just worry, I know you talk about the 20 points of upside, which to get 20 points from him, you're looking at an 86 average, which definitely is doable. That's where I sort of see him. But if you are looking to win a hat and make a real good goal at it, you'd really need, in my opinion, to go 90 plus.
00:51:04
Speaker
We've seen some very good Rockman, you know, Jared Wits only just averaged 90 this year. He was 91. Gorn obviously had his issues, but averaged 92. And even a Briggs who had an absolute monster year averaged 94. So it's not that easy to average 90 as a Rockman. And I think Hawks might be on there. Sorry, not Hawks. I think the Kangaroos might be on the end of a few beltings this year, which might limit his output in some of those games, but can't deny the value. Solo Rock price at 66. He's definitely going up in price. It's just where it ends up landing is going to be
00:51:33
Speaker
going to be very interesting. All right, let's finish up on the forwards because let's be honest, that's what most people are going to want to listen to here. What the bloody hell are we going to do with the forwards
Forward Line Challenges and Strategy Adaptation
00:51:43
Speaker
this year? So how are you initially looking at the forwards and what sort of strategies are you looking to implement? It's crazy, isn't it? It is just completely different to last year where we had, you know, four, five great premium options that we could pay up
00:51:59
Speaker
last year we were absolutely blessed with choice in the forward line and this year it feels like I just don't want to pick eight forwards. I don't know if we can trade those positions for something else but I think the big takeaways here you know we don't we don't have those slammed up premium underpriced premium picks we've got a few options I think if any of those options do turn out to be successful you've got to get on them you know you
00:52:25
Speaker
If Sam Flanders goes big, you want to be on him. If Taylor Adams goes big, you want to be on him. All these guys, it's not going to take much to be a top six forward in the early part of the season until we get DPP changes. So you really want to make sure you get those under priced premium picks right in the forward line because there's not that many of them. And if you miss a guy, you know, once he's gone, then all of a sudden you're paying top dollar. So if there is a guy that, an under priced premium that gets that, you know,
00:52:55
Speaker
15, 20 points upside roll, you gotta jump on. I think the other thing that I'm looking at doing is just spending down a bit. So, forward lines are great. We've always got really good value options in the cheap prices. We've got, you know, part-time rockmen who get a full-time rap gig. We get guys who get stuck getting some midfield time and they see a big jump in their point scoring. So for me at the moment, like the forward line, I'm going pretty cheap. You know, maybe two rookies, maybe even three rookies in the forward line
00:53:24
Speaker
you know, take a rookie off the field somewhere else because I just don't love the premiums there. So maybe an extra mid price. And maybe you have two mid prices in your forward line. You don't have to, you know, maybe you've only got one or two for the rest of your team. So yeah, I think it's really interesting. Yeah, it's, that's sort of where I'm heading with it. Just going value in the forward line.
00:53:46
Speaker
unless we get back that premium who is looking head and shoulders above and in that case I'll be either starting with them or trying to get them into ASAP come the start of the year.
00:53:58
Speaker
Yeah, it's a fantastic point, mate. We always try to keep a pretty balanced structure when we build our starting squads, but I think this year there's probably scope, like you said, to spend down in the forward line. I mean, you're not going to be spending up like the other lines anyway because you don't have the options with McRae being the highest price forward at 91. But, you know, if the options aren't there to pick, you don't have to try and find two of the top, you know, five to ten top-priced players because
00:54:26
Speaker
they're not there. So potentially maybe we do start an extra rookie in the forward line or we do take a bit of a punt on some mid-brush players. I know there's a James Jordan, Jack Billings, Zach Fisher, even Connor Mack, these type of players that a lot of coaches are talking about. If you can start them and maybe, you know, get that 20 points upside, but maybe even a 15 point upside, getting them closer to that 85, knowing that maybe the top six forwards will
00:54:51
Speaker
only sort of average 90 to 100 this year if we're lucky. Maybe that's a bit of a play. So yeah, I do like the idea of spending down and if the rookies do present themselves in the forward line this year, I think I'd be pretty happy with maybe starting three rookies in the forward line and bolstering elsewhere. Yeah, I think that's a perfect point you made. If your top six forwards are only going
00:55:15
Speaker
you know, your sixth best forward is going at 90 and you can pick a mid price that's going to increase their average up to 85. You're losing five points on the top six forwards, you know, you take that every day of the week. So that really brings in those mid prices into the equation. Those guys you listed, any one price around that sort of, you know, 60, 70, even 75, if they can go up to an 85, 90, all of a sudden they're pretty much a top six forward for a discount. That's what we're looking for. That's an under priced premium.
00:55:45
Speaker
I think there'll be a lot of those guys in teams. And I think you could even go heavy on them. Maybe you pick two or three of them because we just don't have the guaranteed premium. Who's going to be the top six forward at the end of the year? I'm not sure any of those guys at the top are going to be. I think we might get a couple of midfielders that switch over and you want to bring them in anyway. A guy like Took Miller, for instance, maybe he starts on the half forward flank. Maybe Wilkin will bring him in round six, round seven after he gets forward status.
00:56:14
Speaker
Heaps of guys like that that you could talk about that that maybe maybe this is the you know, maybe this curse of no forwards Maybe we're gonna be blessed with a took Miller as a forward come around six. So Yeah, it's gonna be tough Yeah, it's gonna be really tough. I'm not I'm not a big Jack McRae fan though. So If for me, it's even harder. I just not sure I can pick Jack McRae this year. So I really don't know where to spend my cash in the forward line. I
00:56:42
Speaker
Well, let's just dive into that then because he's burnt me pretty bad over the last year as well as someone that had him for the entire year last year until he missed that last game with concussion. What are your thoughts on Jack McRae? What do you think his role is going to be this year and what do you think potentially he might average? Yeah, so we're priced at 91. I think the weird thing was, you know, last year wasn't that surprising. You know, Luke Beveridge did Luke Beveridge things.
00:57:09
Speaker
He played on the wing, he played on the half-wood flank, he got a few CBAs. For me, the biggest issue for him is that Bontempeli played full-time midfield, dominated. You're not going to move him back into that half-wood role. So you've got Liberatori in there, you've got Bontempeli in there, and the third midfielder, they might not get 80% CBAs, they might get 40, 50, 60 max. And they're going to rotate a lot of guys through there as well. So everyone's saying Riley Sanders is going to get minutes,
00:57:39
Speaker
They've got a heap of guys, Caleb Daniel. They've just got a heap of guys you can throw through there. So I'm just not convinced he's going to go back to being that 100, 110 guy. I think he had a great, great role when he was doing that. Bontempelli was playing forward. Liberatore was hit and miss. Liberatore is now probably one of the best inside midfielders in the comp. He doesn't really get all that praise, but in terms of contested possessions and tackling, he's up there. Bontempelli, we know him.
00:58:10
Speaker
I'd much rather pick guys who are in the top two midfielders in their club, guys that were pretty confident are going to get 80% CBAs every week. I just don't think Jack McRae is going to get that. And if he doesn't get 60%, 70%, 80% CBAs, he's a 90%, 95% guy at best. And I think that's what we saw last year. So yeah, I mean, he might still be a top six forward, so maybe he just holds his average and he's a top six forward and you can lock that in.
00:58:39
Speaker
That's a play, but at this time of year, I don't love the idea of slocking a guy who's a safe top six. I think you want to be cleverer than that, particularly if you're going for the car. You know, if you're just going for a league win, Jack McRae's not the worst pick. All right, then. So if you aren't looking at Jack McRae, who are you looking to start in the forward line? Yeah, it's a tough one. So I think all those mid price ranges throughout there.
00:59:09
Speaker
I'm looking at, so like a Zach Fisher, Conor McDonald, Taylor Adams, those sorts of guys. I've probably looked to start one or two of them. I don't mind Sam Flanders at this point. Depends a bit on what's happening with the midfield there, but I actually think he might, as long as he's playing, I don't think it really matters. I think he's an upside guy if he's on the wing.
00:59:35
Speaker
If he's on the hard forward playing up high, I think it doesn't particularly matter. And yeah, just looking for those 75 kind of priced guys who I think can jump up to an 85, 90, I'll be looking to start probably two of those. So it's not pretty. It's uncomfortable looking at my forward line at the moment. It does make me feel a little bit nervous.
00:59:58
Speaker
But we're going to have a few options, that's the other thing. So you're going to have a backup plan there. So if your mid price picking your forward line doesn't work out, there's going to be one or two other guys around that price that you've got to be watching and you've got to be ready to jump on early if your pick fails. So yeah, it's hard. I've maybe even considered starting for almost rookie price players in the forward line.
01:00:23
Speaker
see what that does to the rest of my side, maybe loading up in defence or in the midfield because I just don't like the options up top. I'm not a big Taylor Adams fan, which doesn't help either, so there's just not that many options.
01:00:38
Speaker
Yeah, right. We'll leave a little mystery. I mean, it is only January anyway, so I'm sure it's going to change. But yeah, it is very fascinating to see how coaches will tackle this forward situation this year. And we spoke that a lot of sides will end up the same, seeing this round zero. But I think where the differentiation will come is in this forward line. And potentially at this point in time, if you are looking to take a bit of a risk and be different,
01:01:03
Speaker
I think the risk versus reward could be quite favorable if you're looking to take a go
Pre-season Focus and Long-term Goals
01:01:08
Speaker
there. So, mate, I really appreciate you jumping on. It's been really good to chat. Do you have any closing thoughts before we wrap this up? Yeah, I think... Oh, look, it was so early in the pre-season still. Don't get attached to players. There's, you know, what, 70, 80 days, I think, till round zero and then we're going to get round one.
01:01:33
Speaker
If I was a coach right now, just consider everyone, think about roles and really hunt those guys who are getting midfield time, getting ruck time or getting that cushy roll off half back. You know, they're the guys who are really going to jump, particularly with those premium kind of mid-price plays. So we've just got to keep an eye out, think about who else they're competing with at their team and watch, you know, you may be not even watching that guy that you're looking for, you're watching his competitor at the club.
01:02:01
Speaker
We saw with Charlie Constable last year, he had a really great role, but he had a few guys ready to come back into the team. As soon as they came back into the team, he was dropped, and all of a sudden, you've got to burn a trade. I think just monitor pre-seasons. Once we start getting those pre-season games in round zero, then you can really knuckle down on which role is this guy going to play.
01:02:25
Speaker
and what's the upside for that. Just trying to be realistic, look at what other guys... I think it's great what you said with the number one ruckman. Jarev Witz goes at 90. Can a Tristan Cherry beat that? I think that's a really great example there. We've got heaps of examples like that that you can use to get a feel for what you guys can average. Thanks for having me on. It's been great to chat. Really excited for this season to come around. I think it's going to be really tough,
01:02:54
Speaker
It's going to be really fun. It's going to be really rewarding for those that put the time in and play smart and build a good team. And yeah, it's going to be, it's going to be one to remember, I think. Awesome, mate. Thank you. We'll chat soon. Sounds good. Cheers.