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Gold Coast SUNS AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
3.2k Plays9 months ago
A new horizon is dawning at the SUNS with Damien Hardwick arriving in the off-season. That's great for the mighty Gold Coast SUNS, but what will it do for our AFL Fantasy teams!?!
Not only is there a new man at the helm, but we also have to navigate the opening round bye, with the SUNS having a bye just three rounds into the season.
Dos, The Statesman, Lewy and Harmey analyse the red and gold top to bottom to find all the options worth considering in season 2024, including Sam Flanders, Touk Miller, Jed Walter, Will Powell, Bailey Humphrey, Jack Lukosius, and more!
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Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
Introduction to AFL Fantasy and the Pod Squad
00:00:16
Speaker
Today and welcome to the Pod Pod. It is your boy, Dossi here, talking all things AFL fantasy. And we're going to be talking about the Gold Coast Suns on our team preview show. We've got the Pod Squad on deck, just no homesy today, but everyone else is on board. We have five-time top 100 finisher, the Statesman with us as always. We've also got two-time top 10 finisher.
00:00:42
Speaker
John Harvey on deck and back into the fold this week following a little bit of a bad of a few. Bisterious illnesses I would say over the past few weeks we've got Louie back on deck my it's good to have you back on board on the show a regular. In the top thousand and Louie how you might you've recovered from well I guess a new year's injury to be back on the show.
Team Introductions and Fantasy Achievements
00:01:07
Speaker
Yeah, pretty much made so what is this my first podcast for the year is I think it is. Yeah, it's good to be here and it's starting to get close to the season proper now so plenty of relevance to talk about and yeah, just excited to get started. Fancy yourself a bit of a track watcher now as well a bit of a Twitter expert out there at the port trainings bit of a Nuffy dare I say Lou at the moment.
00:01:31
Speaker
Oh, look, I'm just going down for my own interest, really. There's a few little bits and pieces I sort of taking note of, but...
00:01:39
Speaker
Yeah, I enjoy it. It's good fun. Go for a pub meal.
Review of 2022 Performance and Comparisons
00:01:43
Speaker
Love it, mate. Well, let's get into the structure that we've been going through for each of the teams and with Gold Coast, we'll treat it the same. I'm going to go through the team numbers first, then we'll go through a few other things before talking about some specific players. But the team numbers from last year for the Suns, finishing 15th on the ladder and 15th for fantasy scoring. So consistent there, but
00:02:04
Speaker
Interestingly enough they averaged I know there's a lot of talk about the new coach only averaged fifty five points that she average fifty point five points less as a team last year than the twenty seventeen Richmond first premiership team under dimmer so.
00:02:20
Speaker
Little bit of a food for thought there cuz I know there's a lot of thought about them reducing their fantasy scoring as a team that actually already worse than the richman team of old another number number one for percentage of contested possessions verses total possessions also the tigers back in the day number one in twenty seventeen for the stats so.
Suns' Gameplay and Coaching Changes
00:02:41
Speaker
A few of the numbers kind of already aligning with that play style that Dimmer already had in place. Maybe Dewey trying to replicate that system back in the day. A bit of the beasts inside, but not great and clean with the outside ball, which you can see.
00:02:57
Speaker
third for kicks, and second only behind port for meters gain per disposal, but unfortunately, 14th for kicking efficiency. So that was their biggest weakness as a game plan. So dimmer coming in, new coach, new game plan. Stado for fantasy though, you know, who do we see emerging as big winners under dimmer? Obviously, time will tell. But what are your early thoughts?
00:03:23
Speaker
Yes, look, it's going to be an interesting watch. I suppose everyone's expecting to see that sort of Richmond game style and the stats you just rattled through is very interesting. So good deep dive, Dossie. That is great information. So we shouldn't see a worse fantasy scoring by reading that information, which is an absolute positive.
00:03:43
Speaker
I think everyone's pointing to that sort of half-back role. The Jaden Short role is suggested. I've had a good look through the data and the reality is in his time we also had a top scoring forward in Dusty Martin. So the reality is whether he actually really had the fantasy players
00:04:05
Speaker
that he was managing at the time.
Expectations and Strategy for Suns' Season
00:04:08
Speaker
You look at Nank, he also had periods where he was a super scorer, so the reality is, I don't think we need to get caught up too much on Richmond's fantasy, the game style, yes, but I just don't think he actually had the cattle, didn't have the Tom Mitchell, didn't have the Dane Swan.
00:04:28
Speaker
under his tutelage, but those that could score the Nanks, the Jaden Short, the Dustin Martin, they all scored pretty well. So I think we should be open to see what the talent does and I think there's a fair bit of talent at the Suns. Hamid, do you reckon they're on their way up this year? That's the simple question as well for the Suns.
00:04:52
Speaker
Oh, look, I think they're going to be similar to what they were last year. They were really pushing for that eight, weren't they? So, yeah, they're going to be thereabouts. I mean, the list should be building to be a top eight contending team. So I guess we'll see. I should have something to look at, I think.
00:05:10
Speaker
You don't say let's look at the trade period ins Jed Walter the number two pick in the draft key forward absolute man child Gold Coast Academy pick there just looks like he's gonna be a stud out of the gates but as we know key forwards do take their time to develop at AFL level and while he's been a man child.
00:05:30
Speaker
In the junior ranks, can he come in and do that in AFL level versus the mature bodies? We'll find out. The outs, maybe your troll headed to the Hawks, Elijah Hollins off to the Blues, and Chrissy Burgess, the biggest out for the Suns of last year, Premiership player Chrissy Burgess with the Suns VFL team, of course, going to Adelaide and going to be a popular player in the Adelaide podcast for those 200K rookies. But I think the biggest in, as we mentioned before, was dimmer in the trade period.
00:05:59
Speaker
It's going to change a lot of things. So I'm keen to talk about more players as we go on that could be affected by the dimmer game plan. And Stado touched on a few reasons why that might be exciting. But let's also talk about the buy around. And look, I know Stado, you've been our buy around expert going through this whole
Fantasy Strategies Around Bye Weeks and Key Players
00:06:17
Speaker
time. So first of all, just I want to hear your thoughts and then maybe throw to Louis as well. You know what to do with the Gold Coast Suns with their opening round by they have Adelaide, then the Western Bulldogs, then a buy in
00:06:29
Speaker
round three. Yeah it's quite interesting the opening round it's dimmer against Richmond so that's going to be an interesting game to watch first up but it does mean they get an early buy and I'm looking at avoiding the teams especially premiums when we're looking at the round two and the round three buy obviously Gold Coast here have the round three so they get two games in
00:06:55
Speaker
But what I won't avoid is the low breakeven. So if you get a rookie or a low price mid-pricer that really cuts up, looks good roll and coming into round one with a negative breakeven, I'm taking that cash, especially if it's a good roll and it's gonna give me good points. So two good match ups for scoring Adelaide and Western Bulldogs, so we shouldn't shy away.
00:07:24
Speaker
Players at the top end, unless they really blow us away with a new role and a new ceiling that we hadn't seen before, I'd probably avoid, but keep monitoring them for another couple of weeks to see if their potential ends come round four.
00:07:43
Speaker
Louis your thoughts might do you have any different thoughts on a lot of lot of listeners are came to know sort of like the lines that you you can take so you know what score does a player have to get and maybe we can touch on some individual players coming up but are you likely to go anyone. Above that sort of mid price bracket that status talking about and what sort of price bracket would you be comfortable jumping on say if someone goes a hundred and ten or something in round opening round before we start playing fantasy.
00:08:11
Speaker
Yeah, I'm unlikely to go a premium mate, and that's just because of that early buy round as Theto said. And I think we need to start separating it into almost two separate sections where you've got rounds one through three and then five and six where we've got the buy round. So.
00:08:27
Speaker
one through three it's going to be a little bit difficult there's more players on the buy there and I just think we might have a volatile start in terms of roles positions injuries you know what it's like early days in fantasy four and five is going to be sorry five and six is going to be a little bit different but I'm sure we'll talk about that later in terms of if I would start a Gold Coast Sun though then I absolutely would if he's in a rookie priced bracket
00:08:54
Speaker
As I did say, they're going to have that opening round built into their scoring. So the break even should be nice and low and it might just open the door for us to start someone. Maybe we weren't thinking of previously. You mentioned a Jed Walter.
00:09:09
Speaker
sort of key forwards are kind of steered clear of in AF but if he can come out around one and pop a 70-75 off the back of a couple of goals then he's already got the ball rolling straight away and that's when I'd probably consider starting somebody like that.
00:09:26
Speaker
Well, we're not going to discriminate the listeners that do want to start the Gold Coast Suns as well. So we're going to cover this as if, you know, depending on your strategy, there's no right or wrong strategy that we've never played this sort of format. So we're going to try all the teams with the opening round the same way as we have the other team. So we'll move on, you know, just pushing through the same structure. So the popular picks for the Gold Coast Suns and clearly a lot of fantasy coaches aren't paying
00:09:54
Speaker
the same sort of respect, I guess, or what's the word, the same attention to detail that you guys are for this opening round, because 43 percent of coaches are keen on starting Sam Flanders at the moment, priced at a price of eighty nine point six. So that's eight hundred and nine thousand, obviously off the back of his incredible form last year, averaging close to one hundred and twelve in his last five.
Evaluating Key Players' Fantasy Potential
00:10:18
Speaker
of 2023, finally moving into the midfield, playing a bit of a high half forward role as well. John, Hami, your thoughts on a Sammy Flanders this year?
00:10:29
Speaker
Oh look, I think, so he's priced at 89. I think he very well could be over 100 because he's got a well-rounded fantasy game. I think that when you compare what, say, Matty Rowell does out there for scoring multiple areas, getting those marks on the outside,
00:10:50
Speaker
Flanders will do it, but Rau, not necessarily doing that as part of his go. But yeah, that by round, I just really don't think that I will be starting him, but I'm not surprised that there's a lot of interest in him, Doxy boy. So let's have a think about there. Midfield, last year it took Anderson Rau with a little bit of Flanders, Swallow and that sort of thing. A little bit of Humphrey, I suppose as well, Humphries.
00:11:19
Speaker
But Flanders should be the man in there, but how often does your fourth midfielder score huge? I mean, I'm attracted to what he did at the back end of last year, but I don't think there's any guarantee he's going to come out and do that from the start of this season. So I'll be having a bit of a watch, I think, mate.
00:11:38
Speaker
He's been a flat-out scorer in the VFL, you know, for a couple of years now. Stado, I know you've been big on him as well. You know, can you see Flanders having a sustainable average this year? I mean, obviously we need to see what Dim is going to do, but that aside, can you say a big breakout? You know, last year was the breakout. Can we say a hundred and five hundred plus from a forward in San Flanders?
00:12:01
Speaker
It's role dependent of course but if he's permanent inside mid so getting 75% mid then absolutely he can smash it. I think there's a reason for that high ownership is that forward line is so tam ugly and there's not a lot of options and even the the number one option being McCray
00:12:26
Speaker
doesn't give us a lot of security in our own heads just because what his role can be. So if we know that Sam Flanders, who let's face it, you must be doing their social media dos because there's been a lot of Flanders. So there's a potential that he is the man they're going to pin the hopes on. And if that's the case, it's foolish for us not to consider, even though he's got the buy, but
00:12:55
Speaker
what you gotta think about and i'm sort of using the the by periods to try and get the most points but also the most cash i think that's important so that's why i want the premiums that i'm gonna have the by the early by is to give me the most points and i'm gonna find a way to make the most cash now he might make it.
00:13:16
Speaker
too hard for us to ignore and I will listen if that's the case. But you've got to think, if he averages 120 over those two rounds, I'm thinking points scored rather than cash gained,
00:13:32
Speaker
It's not 360 at the end of round three. It's still 240 that he scored. So I've got to think, well, where's that other points coming from? And who's that 19th man that comes in and fields for Sam Flanders?
00:13:49
Speaker
The forward line is disgusting, so there's gonna be the argument and I can understand why he's in 43% of teams. And after the practice games, I might be forced in doing that myself if he's opening round as a ripper.
00:14:05
Speaker
Alright, Louie, moving on to another popular pick at the moment, 19% owned is Took Miller. You know, fantasy coach is thinking he's going to return to his best form of just a few years ago when he was one of the best AFL fantasy performers in the entire competition. He's only priced at 96, which is 868,000. Can you see Took Miller returning to his best despite, you know, these young midfielders flourishing around him?
00:14:33
Speaker
He comes in at the 96th price tag, which is certainly value based on what we've seen in the years previous. We'll probably back over it a couple of times in this podcast, but it's a little bit tricky to know where Tuukmila is going to sit in that midfield this year, especially based on last year with a few injuries. He came back and his role was sort of a little bit up in the air where he spent time
00:14:55
Speaker
bit more forward on the wing moving into the center and that really affected his score. So that's built into his average this year. Potentially he goes back into that midfield full-time. I think that's where we will see him and I think yeah there is the potential for him to go back up to his previous numbers just because he does fill every stat line. But when I speak about his previous numbers I'm probably talking more close to that 110 mark. We don't want to
00:15:25
Speaker
talk about, you know, this game style under this new coach too much. But dimmer at Richmond, as they mentioned before, Dusty Martin was pretty much the only guy who went at 110 in that system over a number of years. So I find it difficult to believe that he's going to exceed that too much. But I do think that he's definitely got the potential to be able to get up to towards that number. The biggest challenge for us, and it's easy to say we avoid the premiums for the early
00:15:54
Speaker
and the early buys. But if Flanders is a clear F1 and Tuke Miller is in the top three mid-fields, it is really hard to get them at round four. So how have we generated enough money to move our mid-pricer to some of these top-end markets? So that also becomes our challenge. So
00:16:16
Speaker
I can also understand that if you desperately want them and you feel that, so I'm trying to think who's the top three, who's the starting three in there? And you think it's Anderson, Miller and Rao.
00:16:30
Speaker
They're the three. So if he's fully fit, he's not playing a defensive role, and Dimmer just goes, you're our best mid, and I think Miller is their best mid, go for it. He's a 110 to 115 guy.
00:16:48
Speaker
I don't think the price rises too much in three rounds because the price variations a little bit slower because the rookies and the high scoring mid prices take up a little bit of that cash pie. But still, you've got to find a way to get $920,000 if he's killing it at round four to get one of the top three mids in your team. So that becomes the challenge.
00:17:15
Speaker
Yeah, one that's going to be hard to navigate for coaches, but I think opening round will dictate a lot and how high that ceiling can go for both those two sort of lower in premium price players in in Sam Flanders and Took Miller. All right, let's get to the final. I just piled this guy in here because he is almost a popular pick. He's not quite 10 percent plus, but he is nine percent. And that's Jed Walter, $294,000 rookie.
00:17:41
Speaker
How many this guy was as i said at the top of the show an absolute man child coming through the ranks he averaged a hundred and three in the talent league for the sun's academy. Nearly seventy eight in the under eighteen chance so he doesn't just you know he can score as a key forward in this.
00:18:00
Speaker
in the juniors, which it's easy to do that. But, Hami, what would you do with Jed Walters starting the season? Like we said, because Louis and Stado said they're happy to start the rookies if they can produce that cash gen even with the opening round. Yeah, look, I'd be pretty reluctant to start in Dossie because, I mean, it's fine being the big fish in the talent league.
00:18:24
Speaker
when you're coming up against a different weight division, you know, I'd be surprised if he comes in and makes an impact. You've only got to look at what Aaron Cadman did last year. He was excellent in the talent league as well. Number one draft, he came in with all the reps and he certainly struggled to adjust to the pace of the game and the style of the game. So look, it's funny, isn't it? They took a ruckman as well, you know, with the really athletic ruckman Ethan Reed,
00:18:54
Speaker
that took Rogers. Rogers may be a chance, but yeah, just as a key for Doss here, I'd be pretty reluctant to start him in the fantasy side.
00:19:05
Speaker
Let's look at the top three averaging players from last year and look at their prospects for this year. We've already covered to Miller. He was the second highest for the Suns. So Noah Anderson at one hundred and one average, as we said, not a huge high scoring top scorer for the Suns, but Noah Anderson, Louis, any interest in him as a prospect this year for us?
00:19:28
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely, mate. He's been one of those players who's risen from the junior ranks with good scoring, he's come in, hit the ground running and pretty much improved on every single year. In the brown low as well, I'm pretty sure he pulled right up there too, so he's clearly doing the right things. The people are taking notice of, 101 average does seem modest for the type of player that Noah Anderson is. He does get on the outside a bit, can get those marks, but he's also a bit of a hard nut on the inside too.
00:19:59
Speaker
He is someone that definitely has the potential to go at 110 at some point in his career. And I think a lot of that's going to depend on the responsibility that he's got in that midfield and having that perfect role. But if you were bullish on Noah Anderson, I certainly wouldn't talk anybody out of it. I think he is a good pick. All right. And the third ceiling as well.
00:20:22
Speaker
Does have a, yeah, it does have a ceiling in our instance. The third top averaging player was Matty Ral, who was in my squad for a significant portion of last year. A 92 average price to 830K. Given the way he looks, it's surprising he's still just 22 years old. You sometimes forget
00:20:39
Speaker
You know, he's still really just a very early in his AFL career came on and exploded onto the scene. Could he take a step further under dimmer state? Oh, now that he's developed that pressure part of his game, he's nailed that. Can he get on the outside a bit in this new system and take his game to another level?
00:21:00
Speaker
I'm a little bit unsure who takes that defensive role. So exclude that role, which I think all of us are a little bit excited to find out, especially if it's good value. There's four I'm interested in, in Anderson, Took, Rowell and Flanders.
00:21:18
Speaker
But Rao is sitting in fourth place for me. So it's a no. I just think he's going to be the bull and the others have just got better running capabilities. So I just think they spread more. They get more marks, I think, between Noah and Took.
00:21:36
Speaker
I think they're the two that are going to get the extra spread if that's the case. So I just, I feel like the other two can fill up the stat lines. And I think the pig tendency of Flanders puts him in front as well. Not only that, he's got the forward status. So he's probably fourth cab off the rank. I understand he's good, but yeah, he's probably, I think he's more of a super coach player than he's going to be an AFL fantasy player.
00:22:07
Speaker
Let's talk about the other guys remaining for the sons and we did spend a little bit of time on strategy with the sons and talking about that by, but I think that's important. Now, let's get into some of the more niche names that are being thrown around by the community, but that people do want to be talking about as well and will power probably my favorite candidate to be that distributor off the half back line and in that Jaden short role.
00:22:33
Speaker
Let's go to harmi your thoughts on willpower we've talked about him a few times this preseason already but do you think he's the guy that is gonna be in that mold to be the the main distributor out of defense for the sons.
00:22:47
Speaker
Yes, I think that it's more than likely Doss. But the thing about Powell is he's not a bargain. He actually comes in at a bit of a price. So you'd have to be really confident that he was going to be the main man. I guess, I think Stado said earlier that
00:23:04
Speaker
you're more looking at people around that 500,000 than below. And that's why I'm got an eye on Conor Buderick because he is 504,000. And if he gets a decent crack in that defensive role, I think he's probably worth a look. And his quote during the week is he actually mentioned Jaden Short. Yeah, I know. Lou, take it away, mate. Yeah, I see the same quote.
00:23:34
Speaker
I can understand why this might be a little bit of a moot point, but if Dimmer wasn't coaching this side, would we be talking about willpower?
00:23:43
Speaker
I liked the way he finished last year, regardless. He seemed to, because obviously, Lockie Weller went down mid-season there, and it was looking like they were trying to find someone to be that distributor, that guy, that main man out of defense, and it wasn't going to be Rory Atkins going forward. It seemed like Will Powell really took the reins for a few weeks before he unfortunately got injured again.
00:24:08
Speaker
Yeah, I remember trading for him in my cape leg and was very excited to see him. He looked like he was going to take his game to another level and I think I just thought, with dimmer coming in, you know, just again putting that Jaden short sort of context, that Bashahouli context behind it, that he was just going to be the guy out of defense. He was taking a lot of kick ins at that time as well.
00:24:28
Speaker
But to your point the quote that kind of butter it came out and said if you haven't seen it you have to find it on the sun social somewhere that he did say. That i was looking for him to be taking that kind of role which is incredibly interesting and i'm yes continue low point.
00:24:45
Speaker
Oh, no, that's pretty much it, mate. But thank you very much for giving me Elijah Sardis for willpower in that keep a leg. All right. Well, I guess another guy to keep an eye out for that people are thinking about is Joel Jeffrey. So I guess out of those people.
00:25:04
Speaker
You know just keep an eye on the rolls that's all we can really say it's gonna be one of those people i think given what you guys have said you much rather a person in the butter it or joel jeffrey range to be what you'd be more happy taking a punt on then the willpower price bracket i'll just talk about another player who.
00:25:21
Speaker
Wasn't really on my radar until I saw some sweet new tattoos on the socials. Bailey Humphrey looking fresh with a couple of new sleeves, one on the arm, one on the leg. But no, look, last year he showed some promising signs, but also let coaches down with, I think it was a zero point
00:25:44
Speaker
three-quarter performance at one point or a ten-pointer. He had a real stinker last year. Harmony, $463K though. He is a forward eligible player. You know, if he's thrown in that midfield mix, could we see a second year bump from him, priced at $51K at the moment?
00:26:01
Speaker
Yeah, you could do. That's right. And I think that the majority of teams are probably going to start with one or two forwards around this price, chasing some value. So you could, you know, well, as Lou said, Sardis, or you could have Phillipo or, you know, whoever. But if Bailey Humphrey comes out and goes whack in round zero, you could make the shift to him because you'll be able to get a look at him.
00:26:31
Speaker
All right, I'm going to look at just a couple more names here and one of them. You're, uh, your old mate, Jack Lakosius, Louie. If we are talking about, you know, we're talking all defense here, but in terms of inside fifties, that's where dimmer makes his bread and butter. He gets the ball in there and that's his whole system is designed on getting it in there. Is Jack Lakosius on the other end of the field going to be one to benefit? Has it come out where he's going to be playing, Dossie?
00:27:00
Speaker
Well, no, but given his form last year, Luke's got some inside goss there or what? No, no, I don't, I don't mate. Look, I think Jack's probably more of a quality over quantity player at this stage. I think a lot of things need to go right for him to be the fantasy gun that some of us want him to be. It would have to be a pretty cushy role, a little bit like James Sicily, I think, to really make it worth it.
00:27:24
Speaker
If he's not got that role, I think it's just not worth going near just because he is too valuable from that football sense.
00:27:32
Speaker
I will watch with interest just in case that day comes where Dimmer works out that the best quarterback, Jaden Short type player is Lakosius. Yeah. Because I tell you what, his scores will skyrocket if he does get the role. And the question mark is who plays forward. So you got Sam Day. You certainly got Ben King. So if someone like a Casbolt, the young bloke. Walter. You have Walter.
00:28:01
Speaker
really goes okay at the third position and that's when you free up Lakotius because if something's their biggest weakness is their ball use then why not get their best ball user behind them behind the ball. Maybe a wing.
00:28:18
Speaker
Even as well another guy that has flagged I think I can't remember who said it but one of the players actually said it which is why what picked up my ears but James cheetahs at two hundred
Pre-season Insights and Promising Players
00:28:28
Speaker
K. Just keep an eye on him this preseason some one of the players flagged him for a wing roll and has been really tearing up the track apparently as every player is doing.
00:28:37
Speaker
this pre-season, but that'll wrap up the Suns pod. 28 and a half minutes of Suns. We really, we really milked that one, but look, I think it was important to talk about some buy-around structure there. And most importantly, I went with the people. The people on Twitter asked, can I go a Suns podcast without talking about Feorini? And I have until this last second, so enjoy that one. You still did it. We'll see you on the next podcast. We'll be talking Fremantle Dockers.