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S4 E35: The Middle East conflict and the Trump-Starmer fallout.
69 Plays2 months ago
Today John and Dejan are discussing the current conflict in the middle east, Pedro Sanchez's defiance of Trump and Starmer's fallout with him. Go like, subscribe, and comment.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview
00:00:00
Dejan
Hi and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast.
Middle East Tensions: Focus on Iran
00:00:04
Dejan
Today we've got very special episode in the sense that we will be discussing the current events that are unfolding in the Middle East and specifically Iran. So John, for our listeners who have had their phones closed for the last couple of days, what's happening? What's going on?
00:00:23
John Gartside
Yes, they are. So we're currently in the sixth day of a conflict between Israel, the USA and Iran predominantly. However, more countries are starting to join, European nations and also those in the Gulf region. And we'll talk about those other nations in a second.
00:00:41
John Gartside
But initially, what has actually been happening for the past six days between US and Israel and Iran?
Khayyar Meni's Death and Iran's Leadership
00:00:48
John Gartside
So on the 20th of February, there were US and Israeli attacks. And on that day, Ayatollah Khayyar Meni was killed. was with Diane that day. were having dinner and literally looked up on our phones and we said, we got all these notifications all at once. Wow, Khayyar Meni has been killed. were astounded at the time, weren't we?
00:01:08
Dejan
Yeah.
00:01:09
John Gartside
So,
00:01:09
Dejan
Didn't even know if it was real as well. But now it has been confirmed.
00:01:11
John Gartside
Yeah,
00:01:14
John Gartside
and it's fairly astonishing. So this happened six days ago, as I mentioned.
Regional Conflict Escalation
00:01:18
John Gartside
Khayyar Meni was the supreme leader of Iran, a position he had held since 1989. And from 1981 to 1989, he had been president. He was a well-renowned dictator in the Middle East. He ruled upon...
00:01:35
John Gartside
Iran, a country which has got sort of economic importance because of its location next to from over which 20% the world's oil and gas travels across. And he was also known for being a brutal dictator.
00:01:49
John Gartside
Those protests in January, he became almost, I think, he became sort of perhaps at the front page of the news. He killed 30,000 protesters, which almost ignited this conflict between him and Trump.
Global Implications and Political Predictions
00:02:03
John Gartside
However, as I've mentioned, since the 28th of February, after those initial US and Israeli attacks, a conflict, almost a war, as we are now describing, has emerged in the region. Iran attacks US associated assets in the Gulf region. So these were countries such Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, now Saudi Arabia and Oman.
00:02:33
Dejan
It's finished.
00:02:34
John Gartside
it's fairly astonishing in that we are seeing what people are calling perhaps the major war of the 21st century. What could become that? Trump envisages this war to last at least 100 days, he has said.
00:02:48
John Gartside
So it's making the world sort of weight in peril. What do you think about this, Diane? This conflict so far for the last six days has dominated the headlines.
00:02:58
Dejan
yeah i think i think as you've mentioned john this is this is a very very very dangerous situation because on one side you've got the atollah who are in a bit of a desperate position their leader was killed they're sort of in this middle of this new election now this conclave-like election with a couple of frontline candidates including jaimeni's son
00:02:59
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:03:27
Dejan
Hoimeni's son, so the first Ayatollah's son, he's in the sort floor runners as well, but you've got this situation there and then you've got Netanyahu's pressure Iran.
00:03:40
Dejan
Iran's been launching a couple of missiles, shot down in Azerbaijan, shot down in Turkey.
European Criticism of US Actions
00:03:47
Dejan
mean, what is going on? It is very, very, very strange, I think. And also has shown lessened Europe.
00:03:59
Dejan
I think there have been some that have just followed in blindly and some that have actually taken step back. Especially, know, the US doesn't have a great track record when it comes to Iran and the region.
00:04:13
Dejan
Just not a good track record at all. I mean, if we think 32 years ago that the Iraq war, know, the doctor document, I mean, this is there is no document now. It's just based on vibes.
00:04:28
Dejan
You know, Netanyahu says they're weeks away from a bomb and okay, apparently, apparently so.
00:04:28
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:04:32
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:04:33
Dejan
I mean, you know, he's been saying that for 30 years, but apparently now it's for real.
00:04:38
John Gartside
Yeah, Trump's motives for the war, it should be said, was sort of preemptive. He described them as he believed that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon. There isn't any evidence that Iran was doing this.
00:04:51
Dejan
Zero.
00:04:52
John Gartside
However, I do think it should be said that Khayyar Meni was trying to. He did express intent to. However, there's a big difference between, I suppose, expressing intent develop a nuclear weapon and actually having developed one.
00:05:04
John Gartside
So it isn't sort of known. where along that process he was. Obviously Israel was involved because Iran has been notably the backer of many groups against Israel.
00:05:17
Dejan
Yeah.
00:05:23
John Gartside
So yes, but also Iran's of vital importance to the USA. And it's sort of creating this idea in the world order today of Trump's modern gunboat diplomacy.
Military Actions and Global Impact
00:05:37
John Gartside
Only a few months ago, we were probably talking at this very moment, right here Zencastle, where record the podcast about Trump's attack upon Venezuela.
00:05:49
Dejan
Yeah.
00:05:49
John Gartside
We were talking about Trump's attack of Venezuela, how this was modern gunboat diplomacy. Trump was almost invading a foreign country then, sort of.
00:05:58
Dejan
Yeah.
00:05:58
John Gartside
Well, he's taken it a step further here. And I think the scale of the Iranian attacks has been fairly astonishing. Luxury hotels in Dubai have been attacked.
00:06:09
John Gartside
It's in particular these drones which have sort of almost rained down upon other cities in the Arabian region, Qatar, Bahrain, and even airports have been affected.
00:06:18
Dejan
Also the missiles, the missiles in Azerbaijan,
00:06:20
John Gartside
Missiles. Yeah.
00:06:24
Dejan
you know, Turkey, they had to shoot down one. So it's a very dangerous time.
00:06:27
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:06:30
Dejan
I get a bit of comfort from knowing that The Gull, which is the French flagship anti-missile ship, I guess, is deployed in the Mediterranean to intercept any ballistic missiles targeted at Europe. Also, the fact that there is a new, highly modernized, highly powerful shield in Romania,
00:06:59
Dejan
uh against ballistic missiles again this sort of one of the main nato protection areas against missiles from the middle east is in romania so i'm i'm i'm quite uh at ease by those two things but i think especially in the middle east there is a very very active conflict And we've seen attacks in Cyprus.
UK's Role and Military Readiness
00:07:22
Dejan
We've seen damage there. And we've seen damage in the Arabian Peninsula, as you said. But John, how would you comment the sort of fact that you've got all these people from Dubai and all these influencers sort of posting videos that the UAE government keeps me safe?
00:07:40
John Gartside
I don't know about the situation there regarding the UAE government but the UAE and its British expat population which is one of the largest in in the country and in the region in general.
00:07:53
John Gartside
It's raised many interesting links to what Kislam doing because there is a vital British interest in this area, not only from a military angle, British bases in Cyprus, in Bahrain, in Oman, but also there's a large British population there.
00:08:10
John Gartside
There's been things on social media about the UAE government protecting all the expats there, all the citizens, and I'm
00:08:18
Dejan
Propaganda.
00:08:18
John Gartside
social media tactics but the UK government are trying to they are trying to sort of do flights out the Middle East it's very difficult as of the time of recording not sure if the first flights actually left but
00:08:32
Dejan
Yes, they have. They have. They have.
00:08:33
John Gartside
Has it left? It's left.
00:08:35
John Gartside
But it will be very difficult.
00:08:35
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:35
Dejan
Some have landed as well.
00:08:38
John Gartside
It will be very difficult because it's flying now from Oman. However, only recently Iran's now started targeting Oman. So there's further complications with that. So it is a very difficult situation. And there's many people who will be unfortunately stuck in the region for the foreseeable future.
00:08:55
John Gartside
But as you mentioned there, Dayan, Sakhir Stam has been pulled into the conflict because of Cyprus. Cyprus was attacked by targeted drones, Israeli one way single attack drones.
00:09:10
John Gartside
And it's raised the question of what should Starmer's role in the conflict be? This has been a huge wedge in between him and Trump, obviously. Starmer currently,
Political Stances of Key Leaders
00:09:19
John Gartside
as of the moment, because it is changing classical Starmer U-turn fashion, he has allowed Trump to use UK bases, that's Fairfield and Gloucestershire, Diego Garcia as well, for defensive purposes only. Additionally, he sent over some more F-35s,
00:09:38
John Gartside
fighter jets over to the Middle East and he's planning to send over Dragon. However, the perhaps embarrassing state of the Royal Navy has been shown by how the deployment of HMS Dragon has been delayed due to, I think it was welding issues. They to do some final welding. The ship wasn't even ready to go.
00:09:58
John Gartside
So it's really called into question Trump's and Starmer's relationship. Trump has called Sir Keir Starmer no Winston Churchill. And then he's even grown it. He's apparently now privately calling Sir Keir Starmer a loser.
00:10:13
John Gartside
So it's fairly astonishing how this conflict has really exposed perhaps the true nature of Trump and Starmer's relationship.
00:10:23
John Gartside
Starmer, and I'll ask you for your thoughts about this in a second, Dan, but Like Pedro Sanchez, Starmer is standing up to Trump a bit more. He's not willing just to go with whatever Trump says. And I think there's a slightly admirable quality in that, even if it's not the right decision from Starmer, his action regarding the Middle East. What do you think, Diane? Yeah.
00:10:43
Dejan
Look, I think Starmer needs to be very careful because the sort of last long standing Labour prime minister that has won an election with the majority that Starmer has won an election is Tony Blair.
00:10:47
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:10:56
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:10:59
Dejan
And Tony Blair has done very big mistake of doctoring a document and getting involved in Iraq.
00:11:00
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:07
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:08
Dejan
Simple as that, basically. And Starmer is obviously very careful because he doesn't want to repeat that mistake. Now, he has said there is no international law basis for this attack.
00:11:21
Dejan
And he is right. This is completely illegal war in every shape and form. This is a, again, there is no document.
00:11:32
Dejan
There's no threat. This has just happened. Trump and Netanyahu have decided just start. I don't think, on the other hand, Starmer has played this quite as strongly as Pedro Sanchez.
00:11:43
Dejan
Maybe for some other reasons.
00:11:44
John Gartside
Yeah, yeah.
00:11:45
Dejan
I think Pedro Sanchez has done the right thing here, which has made this very bold, very sort of attacking speech, saying that we can't play Russian roulette with the lives of millions of people, calling for his season hostilities and...
00:12:06
Dejan
saying that he will not be bullied into doing something that is wrong by Trump. Very, very true. couple of days ago, we've seen Emmanuel Macron go and announce publicly that France going to develop a nuclear arsenal again. when it comes to their nuclear arsenal, as well as nuclear submarines, as well as stop the transparency around France's nuclear program.
00:12:36
Dejan
Macron has called the next 20 years time and an era of nuclear weapons. So we've got, on one hand, Macron starting preparations for independence, and he's done this nuclear shield, he calls it, around some countries in Europe.
00:12:52
Dejan
Then you've got Pedro Sánchez, who's done this very strong speech that has backfired slightly in that now Trump is calling him a loser as well and is going to demand tariffs.
00:13:05
Dejan
However, economically speaking, Spain the US don't have a relationship that is as strong as perhaps the UK and the US. So Spain's exports, only about 5% of those account to those to the US.
00:13:18
Dejan
And actually, the US has been on a surplus, on a trade surplus with Spain recently.
00:13:19
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:13:22
Dejan
So Pedro Sanchez is not really affected by that. It's not like him stopping trade with France, for example, which really hurt his economy.
00:13:32
Dejan
Starmer on the other hand is stuck.
00:13:32
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:13:33
Dejan
He's stuck between a rock and a hard place at the
Iran's Leadership Speculations
00:13:35
Dejan
moment because relies on the US for trade and for other things. However, he knows instinctively this is the wrong action.
00:13:43
Dejan
It can really backfire on him it can make him go from one of the prime ministers who's a bit forgettable to a prime minister in the sort of, you know, region where he remembered forever for starting an illegal war.
00:13:58
Dejan
and sending British troops to die in an illegal war in Iran. What we also need to keep in mind is that the Ayatollahs aren't playing, you know.
00:14:09
Dejan
They've got no regard for human rights, no regard for Geneva Convention, and they will stop at nothing, that in case there are British soldiers that are, they will stop at nothing to defeat them.
00:14:09
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:21
Dejan
Chemical weapons, probably.
00:14:21
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:23
Dejan
Biological weapons. Who knows? But it's not going to be a sort of fair fight, right? We know that. So I think he's done the right decision.
00:14:31
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:33
Dejan
I think he's done the right decision. I don't think the UK should get involved on a moral principle. What do you think?
00:14:39
John Gartside
Yeah, yeah. Perhaps morally they shouldn't. But I think, as you said there, there are many practical difficulties. The UK and Sakhir Starmer, we depend on the USA in a military sense, in a relationship sense. This special relationship is really a relationship of dependence for us. We depend on the USA interests.
00:15:00
John Gartside
in our foreign policy and in a military sense. So that's why I think leaders such as Kemi Baden-Ock was saying at the day of recording on Thursday, 5th of March, was saying we should get involved because we almost have to follow the USA, which is a slightly unfortunate situation.
00:15:15
Dejan
Okay.
00:15:19
John Gartside
But it's probably true. I think an interesting way of looking at this is just the decline of the British military. Our presence in the Middle East is a mere shadow of what it was. Before the conflict, I think there was one Royal Navy vessel there, and I think it was either a patrol ship or a minesweeper.
00:15:38
John Gartside
If you go back couple of decades ago, the situation was very different, with large presence there. As I mentioned, that destroyer we've been sending over has had delay due to effectively construction works on it, almost equipping it out ready for war. So it's fairly astonishing, but we do depend on the USA because of this decline in the British military brought about by successive governments, Tory and Labour, who have brought about spending cuts to the military.
00:16:08
John Gartside
You mentioned another idea there, Dayan, which was troop deployments. That may happen in the future it will be interesting to see what happens in this conflict. But I think a key thing to consider, and which you mentioned there, is change of leadership in Iran.
00:16:24
John Gartside
Trump
Trump's Strategy and Challenges
00:16:24
John Gartside
can end this war perhaps sooner if he can have a change in leadership in Iran. Reza Parlevi, a the former crown prince's son, who has been mentioned. However, an issue which is emerging is level of support for Parlevi. I've personally been astonished to see that in the UK there are supporters of higher many.
00:16:43
John Gartside
Something which astonishes me, but actually this weekend in London, there's supposed to be marches in favour of how many. And it raises the question of why didn't Trump attack Iran back in January, where there were huge protests in the capital of Tehran?
00:16:59
Dejan
yeah
00:17:00
John Gartside
against high many and that could have brought about a change in leadership there so I think a key thing about this Iran situation is who becomes the next leader if Trump could secure a strong leader that would help the US situation or help stabilise the region it could be more beneficial what do you think Dan?
00:17:18
Dejan
yeah i think i think i think you've mentioned couple of interesting points there i think Just as a bit of background, Reza Pahlavi, he has been deemed by Trump as not an option.
00:17:32
Dejan
Trump has said, not an option, we need someone from the inside, which I find very counterintuitive. You know, why do you want someone who's in the country and has been in bed with the ayatollahs to keep running the country?
00:17:40
John Gartside
Okay.
00:17:45
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:17:45
Dejan
mean, it doesn't make any sense, which to me, and also you mentioned hasn't been attacked in January.
00:17:49
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:17:50
Dejan
This to me screams like an operation that has not been planned. hasn't been thought through. It's just happening and they're sort of figuring it out as they go.
00:18:00
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:01
Dejan
It's not good practice. And also, they are playing Russian roulette with millions of lives, basically. Another side of it is who actually is going to take over the Ayatollah leadership now.
00:18:18
Dejan
We'll find out in a couple of days, I think. But... I've mentioned Khaymene Jr., possibility, again, a hardline fundamentalist clerk. Khaymene Jr., bit more moderate, but again, you know, being the son of the first Ayatollah of Iran and being called a moderate isn't really what you need.
00:18:36
John Gartside
Exactly, yeah.
00:18:39
John Gartside
Not moderate, yeah.
00:18:41
Dejan
No, so find the whole stance that Trump is playing absolutely farce. You know, this is like him going to Venezuela and saying that Maria Machado is not a strong candidate with support. I mean, it's just a joke.
00:18:57
Dejan
You know, he hasn't thought this through and he wants someone, what I think he's looking for, he wants someone in the Atollas, to switch sides start kissing his ass, basically.
00:19:10
John Gartside
Yeah,
UK-US Relations and Historical Context
00:19:11
John Gartside
which wouldn't happen. And I think the issue with managing a country like Iran, which is a huge country, Iran, it's got a very large population.
00:19:18
Dejan
Yeah.
00:19:21
John Gartside
It's of, I think it was 90 million it could be. It's obviously got links to terrorist groups or to, it's got links to sort insurgency groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
00:19:29
Dejan
Yeah, 90 million.
00:19:32
John Gartside
It's vital economically for the world's gas and oil shipping so it's a very difficult situation of getting a leader that who trump can trust and the west can trust who'll do the right job and i think it can't come from the art from the high many camp simply because of the atrocities he's committed however there probably is difficulties in just sort of almost shipping someone in who perhaps doesn't know the situation as well uh Iraq set a precedent of how it's very difficult just almost set up camp in a country and to manage it. Trump recognised he couldn't in Venezuela, for example.
00:20:10
John Gartside
So I think there are many challenges in what actually happens. And you mentioned an interesting idea there, Diane, about Stalin's hesitancy earlier on.
00:20:20
John Gartside
I was listening to the Political Currency podcast by Ed Balls and George Osborne, a competitor of Debatable Discussions, however, probably definitely a lot more views, but nonetheless competitor. And I think Ed Balls made a good point about Starmer, perhaps.
00:20:35
John Gartside
And that is Starmer's hesitance could be linked to this aftermath of the Iraq war, which hangs over the Labour Party.
00:20:41
Dejan
Yeah.
00:20:43
John Gartside
The war exposed many things of perhaps one shouldn't be too hasty to engage in conflict. But another idea is that it can go on for a very long time. It's hard to manage these situations. Is Trump going to engage in a real full scale invasion?
00:20:59
John Gartside
of Iraq, that would be very difficult to manage. So I think it raises so many questions about the impracticalities of this.
Illegal Wars: Implications for the UK
00:21:08
John Gartside
Perhaps Stahmer's response hasn't been the bright one so far, but perhaps the level of hesitancy is correct because many don't know what Trump's next move will be.
00:21:20
Dejan
I agree with I think find it a bit difficult to grasp the sort of almost fanatic calls for the UK to get involved, which have been happening. You there have been people who are almost fanatically saying that he should have said, yes, let's go, all in, bases, attack. I mean, you know, this is an illegal war.
00:21:47
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:21:47
Dejan
The Labour Party and the UK don't need two illegal wars in succession.
Episode Summary and Listener Engagement
00:21:53
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:21:53
Dejan
Iraq and Iran.
00:21:55
John Gartside
Yeah. I mean, I suppose what does the term illegal war even mean anyway, in a sense, but yeah, anymore.
00:21:59
Dejan
Any more, yeah.
00:22:01
John Gartside
It's sort Yeah. But just to summarise quickly, today we've been discussing the current US-Israel-Iran conflict, which, as we've described, has almost now included many European countries and even those outside of Europe. It's had huge effects, leading to rising oil prices by a few percent. South Korea's stock market index, COSPI, posted its largest fall on Tuesday of 12%. Similarly, I think in particular the Asian financial markets have taken a particularly harsh effect from it.
00:22:35
John Gartside
I think they have recovered of the time of recording. But nonetheless, this war has a huge impact. As Trump has said himself, though, he doesn't want this war to last a few days.
00:22:42
Dejan
Yeah.
00:22:48
John Gartside
I mean, Trump intends for this war to last at least 100 days, which is fairly astonishingly thinking about the effects of this.
00:22:57
John Gartside
How will people who are stuck in the Middle East get out?
00:22:58
Dejan
Yeah.
00:23:01
John Gartside
So, yes, it's all to play for, I suppose, in many ways, Dan.
00:23:03
Dejan
Who knows?
00:23:04
John Gartside
And there'll be many more episodes, I'm sure, by us on it.
00:23:07
Dejan
Yeah, definitely. And if you enjoyed the episode, don't forget to leave us comment, leave us a like, leave us a review, tell us what you enjoyed and what you didn't enjoy. And we hope everyone listening either from the Middle East or with family in the Middle East is safe and doing as best as they can during these tough and challenging times.
00:23:31
Dejan
and we will see you next week with a very special episode we are interviewing current politician and it should be a very interesting conversation about what we've just talked about now but also some other more domestic issues
00:23:37
John Gartside
A Labour MP.
00:23:46
John Gartside
Yeah, see you then.
00:23:49
Dejan
see you then