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S4 E38: The Iran War - a possible peace deal?
43 Plays26 days ago
Today John and Dejan are discussing the ongoing Iran war. Tune in to hear them discuss the latest developments in the conflict and whether a peace deal is possible. Please like, subscribe/follow and comment. Do also rate us 5 stars wherever you are listening.
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Transcript
Introduction
00:00:00
John Gartside
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast.
US-Iran-Israel Conflict Overview
00:00:06
John Gartside
You join us for another exciting episode today as we're going to delve into this Iran conflict.
00:00:07
Dejan
Yeah.
00:00:12
John Gartside
It's really intensified over the last few days, Dayan, We've seen Donald Trump threat to almost obliterate a whole civilisation on Tuesday before a ceasefire.
00:00:24
John Gartside
So could you provide our listeners with a brief overview of the developments in this conflict between the US, Israel and Iran?
00:00:31
Dejan
yes so after the initial round of strikes as we all know and the death of the ayatollah and the election of the new ayatollah there have been a series of sort of bombings led by the us and uh israel on iran and now today on lebanon but The main bit is regarding Iran and in retaliation for that, Iran has basically blocked the sphere of Hormuz, blocking around 20% of the world's oil supply. So with a couple of the Gulf states actually not being able to transport any oil at all due to the developments, thousands of ships are blocked and sort of in danger of just getting annihilated, basically.
Trump's International Challenges
00:01:12
Dejan
I just read today that European airports, they're saying they're going run out fuel in about two and a half weeks.
00:01:21
Dejan
I'm sure everyone else is in the same situation. We've seen sanctions on Russia get lifted, actually, in quite a sneaky move by Trump to allow Putin to now pump oil back into the world.
00:01:33
Dejan
Obviously, a mesh that was sort of a direct link of the fact that the straight-offer moves is blocked. So Iran's played this very cleverly, I think.
00:01:45
Dejan
You know, do I condone it? Absolutely not. I think it's a clever move because they had no cards. There was nothing they could do apart from endure the bombings and block the strait. Because blocking the strait has put so much pressure on Trump, both domestically and externally. We saw the people being both inside and outside the country just losing it and saying, you know, you're killing the world economy.
00:02:10
Dejan
What is this? Europe took a step back, didn't want get involved. apart from romania who you know i i'm not going to get into that because that's a that's a an hour's monologue but most european countries have not allowed us uh troops in their bases and stuff like that so the developments are this ceasefire was achieved a couple days ago
00:02:36
John Gartside
Yes, on Tuesday, yeah.
00:02:37
Dejan
Yeah, after Trump said were going to destroy a whole civilisation or something along the lines of.
Domestic Criticism of Trump
00:02:43
Dejan
And actually there's been quite a fantastic backlash. So you've seen both people inside and outside the Magosphere sort of criticise Trump.
00:02:53
Dejan
Obviously people outside were going to do it anyway. So you've seen the likes of Gavin Newsom and some other leading Democrats. But you've also seen people in Europe. So some of the European leaders have actually sort of made sure to emphasize how big of failure this operation actually was. But also people inside the Trump sphere, such as Alex Jones, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Theo Vaughn, Joe Rogan, all of them sort of criticized Trump and the way he handled the conflict and the way he got involved in the conflict. So...
00:03:31
Dejan
Yeah, what do you think about that, John? I mean, lot of the people actually sort of got Trump elected are now sort of turning their backs on him.
00:03:38
John Gartside
Yeah, and I think it's all to do with the effects of the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is something which, myself included, couldn't have really pointed to on a map before the 28th of February, when these UN strikes on Iran and Israeli strikes Iran started.
00:03:56
John Gartside
But it's almost suffocated global economy, literally. We've seen the price of oil rise now almost well above $100 per barrel. Similarly, the stock market has had to be even rescued in countries in Asia, and has really dropped across the world.
00:04:09
Dejan
Yeah.
Ceasefire and Ongoing Threats
00:04:13
John Gartside
You mentioned there as well, Diane, the Strait of Hormuz's current situation. So it's sort of very cloudy. But under the two-week ceasefire that was agreed on Tuesday,
00:04:24
John Gartside
ships are supposed to have safe passage. However, they were told a day later that they'd be targeted and destroyed if they entered the strait. Saying that 19 ships as of today, 10th of April, were tracks of going through the Strait of Hormuz.
00:04:42
John Gartside
However, that's a huge decrease, a huge decline from the 138 ships, which is the daily average through the strait. So that considerable decrease there in shipping activity across the strait shows the huge effect it's had on suffocating the global economy.
00:05:00
John Gartside
Because, I mean, notably oil, but even things such as sort of more consumer or industrial goods haven't had the opportunity at all to enter.
00:05:10
Dejan
yeah
00:05:11
John Gartside
Another interesting idea, Diane, which we should expand on is, and to mention that as well, that's obviously led so many economic effects in the US, rising prices of oil.
00:05:20
John Gartside
Trump's got the midterms to be concerned about. And so it's always going to grow criticism. That's partly because many are wondering whether this war was entirely necessary.
00:05:32
John Gartside
you know, the Gulf states will be extremely annoyed at Trump because Trump basically started these unprecedented attacks, which have led to huge, huge attacks on their infrastructure, military bases for countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain or Qatar.
00:05:38
Dejan
to the population of the US, which has been problem.
00:05:51
John Gartside
I think it calls something quite interesting into question, and that's what is Netanyahu doing? Netanyahu clearly doesn't care about what Trump wants.
00:06:02
John Gartside
He's mainly occupied in this war in Lebanon, which he said wasn't included in Tuesday's two-week ceasefire.
Regional Tensions and Netanyahu's Actions
00:06:10
John Gartside
Therefore, since the ceasefire, more than 300 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli attacks. That includes, I think, 100 strikes in 10 minutes on Wednesday.
00:06:21
John Gartside
So Netanyahu is really almost doing his entirely own thing compared Trump. I mean, he's sort of totally awful. He's taken no notice of the ceasefire.
00:06:30
Dejan
Yeah.
00:06:32
John Gartside
And I think it's 120 pieces of terror infrastructure, in his words, which is targeted in South Lebanon since Tuesday. What do you think of this, Dan?
00:06:42
John Gartside
What do you think about Netanyahu, but also effects on the Gulf region overall? Will we see them grow away from America in the future?
00:06:48
Dejan
Yeah. I think we've seen ceasefire. It's actually a tweet from the Pakistani Prime Minister, actually, the chief negotiator and broker of this deal.
00:06:59
Dejan
And he specifically says that there is a ceasefire, including Lebanon, and, you know, tags sort of J.D.
00:07:05
John Gartside
Oh yes. Yeah. Yeah.
00:07:08
Dejan
Vance, the Ayatollah, Trump and everyone involved. So I think this is actually such a bad faith move from America.
00:07:12
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:07:17
Dejan
They're dealing bad faith and it's going to come back to bite them. Because if they're dealing bad faith, so will Iran. And, you know, whatever we, whatever we think, Iran at the moment has the upper hand.
00:07:33
Dejan
Trump has been able to achieve absolutely nothing with this war. Nothing. Hasn't been able to achieve regime change.
00:07:41
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:07:41
Dejan
has only managed to damage his popularity. This is another Vietnam in the eyes of many US citizens. An unnecessary war on the side of the world that they don't really care about and they feel like it's not their business.
00:07:55
Dejan
The
Political Implications for Trump
00:07:55
Dejan
midterms are coming soon and he's going to feel it. I'm sure that he will lose the midterms. There is no chance that the Republicans keep the House and the Senate.
00:08:05
Dejan
And I think when that happens, we're going to have an actually very difficult time in the sense that he might get impeached.
00:08:10
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:08:11
Dejan
I mean, who knows? I think if the Democrats win, they will kick him out in a week if this war isn't finished.
00:08:13
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:08:18
Dejan
If he doesn't manage to wrap it up until the midterms, number one, the global economy would have gone crazy because straightway would have been closed and oil would have just exploded.
00:08:18
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:08:28
Dejan
Manufacturing would just close down in virtually most places. There'd be an economic crisis if Trump is still in power and hasn't managed to wrap it up until the midterms, the Democrats will kick him out in two days.
00:08:47
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:51
John Gartside
But I think... I think the MAGA base is divided, but then Trump's got a cult of personality in a way.
00:08:59
John Gartside
And I think it'll be hard to break through that. I mean, I don't think by any means Republicans will do well at the midterms. I definitely think they'll suffer.
00:09:07
Dejan
Yeah.
00:09:07
John Gartside
But then think, I don't know if the level of suffering will be as large as people think. I think what determines in reality, is if Trump can achieve a ceasefire in coming days.
00:09:18
John Gartside
Because that would effectively, as you said there, that would put a stop to these economic problems like the rising price of oil and petrol.
00:09:26
John Gartside
And then soon as they can sort of, as soon Trump can, let's say, mitigate that economic side, he could effectively control a lot of the damage in the midterms.
00:09:36
John Gartside
So I think I sort of agree with you, Dan,
Negotiations and Strategic Positions
00:09:39
John Gartside
it's reliant on this ceasefire, which Pakistan will broker in the coming days. I think they've reported JD Vance has gone to Pakistan.
00:09:45
Dejan
Yeah, I think...
00:09:47
John Gartside
And I think the, the Iranian delegation has as well.
00:09:51
Dejan
think this is the worst time for Trump. I mean, it's so nonsensical to me.
00:09:54
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:09:56
Dejan
Why would you go to war in Iran when there is a huge, huge anti-Israel sentiment growing?
00:10:04
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:10:05
Dejan
You know, and that sentiment isn't anti-Semitic.
00:10:10
John Gartside
yeah
00:10:11
Dejan
It's the result of sort of... actions that Israel has taken in Gaza, which are, to some extent, war crimes.
00:10:21
John Gartside
yeah yeah
00:10:21
Dejan
You know, mean, some of those things are inhumane. There is a massive anti-Israel movement growing. There is a massive anti-war movement happening at the moment.
00:10:34
Dejan
And also... America doesn't like being at wars that don't affect them. It's, you know, that's what history says.
00:10:41
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:10:42
Dejan
Vietnam was a massive failure. And this risks to be another Vietnam.
00:10:45
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:10:47
Dejan
Because just like how they lost in Vietnam, it's not looking like they're win here. And again, he hasn't been able to achieve anything. don't think he will be able to achieve anything. If he doesn't wrap it up soon, and by soon, I mean in the next week...
00:11:02
Dejan
If we reach that two and a half week mark where airlines get run out of fuel, then it's looking very, very bad. And I think, look, we've not had... I don't think we've ever had this situation in the States. I don't think we've ever had the president go in the middle of the night, kidnap a foreign leader...
00:11:21
Dejan
And just get away with it, unscathed, nothing. And then sort of two weeks later, metaphorically, decides to just start bombing another country and gets away with it.
00:11:33
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:34
Dejan
I think if the Democrats get house, they will eat him alive.
00:11:39
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:40
Dejan
They will eat him alive because... The MAGA base is divided and a lot of people voted him in as the peace anti-war option because we've had this massive propaganda from all the people I've mentioned before.
00:11:48
John Gartside
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's what promised. Yeah.
00:11:53
Dejan
Tucker Carlson saying, oh, if you vote for Kamala, you're going to war. She's going to send you to war and you're going to die.
00:11:57
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:59
Dejan
And that's not happened. And I do think it would have happened.
00:12:01
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:12:02
Dejan
But it's happening now because Trump is actually debating whether to send military troops in the strait or not.
00:12:10
John Gartside
No, I agree. I think Americans, like many people in their politics do, become concerned when it gets to really an economic issue.
00:12:20
John Gartside
And it's starting to approach that, even though the US has got such huge oil reserves.
00:12:20
Dejan
Yeah.
00:12:26
John Gartside
There are clear economic effects of the war, which are starting in the States. And I think Iran will know that coming into these talks with J.D.
00:12:32
Dejan
Yeah.
00:12:36
John Gartside
Parnes. they will know that it's in the US's best interest to get a deal done. And I mean, it's always hard to predict these things, but I think the US will try quite hard, especially JD Vance, because he'll know the effects of the midterms.
00:12:51
Dejan
I think also another thing to mention.
00:12:51
John Gartside
and he can try and fashion it as a victory. It wouldn't be a victory for the US at all, but they would try and get it, in my eyes, it's in their best interest to get it done before the midterms, and Trump can attach a slogan, you know, saying he did something in the Middle East.
00:12:57
Dejan
Yeah.
00:13:07
Dejan
Well, I mean, if they don't get it done before the midterms, you know, the world's ended.
00:13:13
John Gartside
Yeah, yeah.
00:13:14
Dejan
If they don't get it done in two weeks, we're in big trouble.
US Influence and Foreign Policy Critique
00:13:18
John Gartside
Yeah, I...
00:13:18
Dejan
Two weeks, I think, is the massive deadline because if airlines ran out of fuel, that is a very tangible thing that, you know, a person feels.
00:13:23
John Gartside
yeah yeah
00:13:27
Dejan
Like, oh, I was supposed to go to... Especially with the States being such a big country, you need to fly.
00:13:31
John Gartside
yeah
00:13:32
Dejan
And I think people will feel that. I think also Iran has an advantage in this situation, which is that they don't need votes.
00:13:43
Dejan
And they don't care about votes.
00:13:45
Dejan
And they don't really care about how their population feels, you know, because they're in a position where that doesn't impact whether they're in power or not.
00:13:53
Dejan
So they will come at this meeting with very little regard of whether there will be more bombings.
00:14:00
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:01
Dejan
However, they know that Trump is under the pressure.
00:14:05
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:05
Dejan
And the pressure is if we lose the House by a big majority, we're toast.
00:14:10
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:11
Dejan
So JD needs to wrap it up. They need to be, I think, they need to make the concession of we got it wrong.
00:14:22
Dejan
Because if Iran is going to be hardlining, which they might be, because they don't care about the price of oil going up.
00:14:29
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:29
Dejan
They don't care about being bombed.
00:14:29
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:14:30
Dejan
They don't care. So they know their position of strength is the fact that they control 20% of the world's oil, plus the sort of shipping routes that, you know, everything else as well.
00:14:43
Dejan
So if I was the Iranian delegation, I would be hardlining. I would try and sort of push as far as I can. And I think the US need to be very careful of not going into another sort of Vietnam-like situation where it's clear going to lose.
00:14:58
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:15:00
Dejan
Or an Afghanistan-like situation again. You know, saw an interview on Fox last week with a US, I think it was a general or a sort of Republican army member And then said, oh, Afghanistan. We were in Afghanistan for 20 years, so this might go on for a while.
00:15:21
Dejan
What?
00:15:21
John Gartside
Yeah, it'd be an awful situation if it did.
00:15:23
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:24
John Gartside
And I think, but I think, as I said earlier, I think when this episode would have been released, JD Vance will be in talks in Pakistan. And Iran, as you said there, it's clear that they're in this position of strength, because it's in the US's best interest to get this war done over with quickly.
00:15:41
John Gartside
And I think they'll do that.
00:15:42
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:42
John Gartside
I think There's a way with these things in that advance and Trump will attach a slogan to it. They'll try and make it seem like it's a victory. Like, you know, they can say, for example, that they stopped Iran's attempts at getting a nuclear weapon, something that it would likely have taken them, regardless of the conflict, a very long and hard time to do anyway.
00:16:07
John Gartside
but Trump will try and spin it. He'll attach some slogan to it because, as you said, there's a threat of the midterms. And think even he isn't
00:16:14
Dejan
yeah
00:16:17
John Gartside
even he, somebody fairly reckless and has so much sort of obscene confidence in himself, he'll understand that threat and Vance will. So I would imagine, mean, there's a question of whether what Israel does in Lebanon, that's a whole other debate.
00:16:34
John Gartside
I think Netanyahu's also completely reckless.
00:16:34
Dejan
Yeah.
00:16:37
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:16:37
Dejan
I mean, he's out of control.
00:16:38
John Gartside
Yeah, even though Lebanon applies to this thus far, he said it doesn't. And he's actually upped the scale of tax. But I think regarding the US and Iran, I think the US will have to concede a bit.
00:16:46
Dejan
Yeah.
00:16:55
John Gartside
And, but I think it's sort of, it's almost necessary for it to cut its losses. I mean, its effects on the Gulf region will be interesting as well.
00:17:00
Dejan
Yeah.
00:17:03
John Gartside
A lot of these Gulf states will be annoyed at the US because they viewed having US military bases, people like Qatar, people like Kuwait or Bahrain, they viewed having a US military base as a form of protection, as a form of defense. But actually it's almost become an excuse for them to be attacked.
00:17:21
John Gartside
So I think the US could really lose a lot of its regional support. mean, Rory Stewart has gone as far to say that the loss of the support for the Gulf states could actually be the end of the US's global influence, which is an interesting idea, I think.
00:17:37
John Gartside
I think Trump's got be very careful. Trump was almost, prior to this conflict, one could say Trump's foreign policy was almost becoming a slight more strength of him.
00:17:48
John Gartside
Just in this idea, I'm thinking of solving the conflict, it was Thailand, Cambodia, and some other minor conflicts. But the Iran war, I mean, that's just portrayed him to be, you know, sort of almost close to being a sort of authoritarian madman.
00:18:01
Dejan
Yeah, I think, again, this anti-war sentiment that he was voted on, I think he's completely betrayed his voters because the Russia-Ukraine war is still going on.
00:18:02
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:07
John Gartside
Yeah. False. Yeah.
00:18:12
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:12
Dejan
It's not getting as much airtime as it did.
00:18:14
John Gartside
And also Trump shows no support to the Ukrainians. mean, it seems like he's close to Russia in many ways.
00:18:16
Dejan
Zero. Yeah, zero.
00:18:19
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:21
Dejan
And then you've got this unprovoked action in Iran.
00:18:26
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:26
Dejan
Well, you know... Israel, was Israel going to do it? I believe so. I think they were going do it either way. The question is, why did he feel the need to get involved?
00:18:34
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:36
Dejan
And then... You can't go in the middle of the night and kidnap a leader from his bed.
00:18:42
John Gartside
Exactly. Yeah. Which he did in Venezuela.
00:18:43
Dejan
You can't... You just can't do that.
00:18:44
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:18:46
Dejan
And they've done that, and he's gotten off unscathed yet.
00:18:52
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:18:52
Dejan
But again, think he was lucky then. don't think he'd be as lucky now, because now... He's got a big target on his back by both foreign and domestic sort of opposition who are like, you know, he's lost it. He's out of control. We need to do something about it. And I think he's worried about that as well, which is why he wants to wrap this up quickly.
00:19:14
Dejan
Because if this goes on, if it drags on, he will get impeached. I'm sure. I mean, they impeached
00:19:19
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:19:22
Dejan
Nixon for the Watergate scandal, which was pretty bad.
00:19:25
Dejan
I mean, Bill Clinton was impeached for something very, very less internationally provocative than kidnapping a foreign leader in the middle of the night and cutting 20% of the world's oil exports.
00:19:25
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:19:29
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:19:38
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:19:38
Dejan
So I think he knows that.
00:19:39
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:19:40
Dejan
think he knows that if he doesn't wrap it up and if he doesn't actually manage to sell it, he's out.
00:19:46
John Gartside
Yeah.
Conclusion
00:19:46
John Gartside
And that's why, as I say, think Varts have to get an end. So with that, we'll conclude the episode. We hope you've enjoyed listening. Please do like, subscribe, follow and comment. We're trying to get to 100 subscribers on YouTube. We're quite close. So do subscribe listening on YouTube.
00:20:05
John Gartside
Oh yes.
00:20:07
Dejan
So if we're trying trying to keep you updated on all foreign policy affairs, and you know, doing a sort of 20 minute timeframe, which isn't it isn't the easiest thing, but we hope we try.
00:20:18
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:21
John Gartside
Okay. See you soon.
00:20:23
Dejan
you soon.