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S4 E41: Will Starmer Survive?
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Today John and Dejan are discussing whether Starmer will survive as PM (likely not)... Please like, subscribe, comment and follow.
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Transcript
Introduction to Keir Starmer's Leadership
00:00:00
Dejan
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today we are discussing very pressing issue, which is Keir Starmer's premiership.
00:00:10
Dejan
I'm sure that if you've been online at all, it's everywhere, Instagram, TikTok, the FT, the Economist.
00:00:11
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
Will Keir Starmer Resign?
00:00:20
Dejan
So front page is, will Keir Starmer resign? So, John, will Keir Starmer resign?
00:00:27
debatablediscussions
Yes, I think it's an inevitability now that Zakir will resign. I think he's only now been in office for nearly two years, but I think these two years have had conclusion fairly... I mean, right from the start, it seemed that Kia's premiership wouldn't be the best and over the last few weeks in particular with the awful local election result where reform gained about 1450 councillors with those awful results for Labour and the local elections it's just sealed the deal it's sealed Kia's fate And he's, you know, I can see that the moving van is preparing to come to Downing Street.
Calls for Starmer's Resignation
00:01:17
Dejan
Yeah.
00:01:18
debatablediscussions
What can he do? Not a lot, really. At the moment, 112 Labour MPs have signed a letter backing Sakiya Starmer to go.
00:01:28
debatablediscussions
That is of the time of recording. But additionally, there's also been four ministers who have resigned. sort of largely allies of West Streeting, which is something we'll get onto later. But not only have four ministers resigned, but there's been rumours throughout the day that leading cabinet ministers, people like Shabana Mahmood, John Healy, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper, they've been holding these sort of private meetings with Zakiya to sort of say...
Potential Successors to Starmer
00:01:57
debatablediscussions
You're on the way out. Perhaps do we need to draw up a timetable for your departure or a sort of plan for what's happening next? So what do you think, Diane?
00:02:08
debatablediscussions
There's a few questions here, I suppose. I suppose there's the inevitability of Keir Starmer resigning. And what do you think next for the Labour Party in Britain?
00:02:14
Dejan
Yeah.
00:02:18
Dejan
Well, you know, I think that the speech earlier on, Keir's time of speech, I thought that was really interesting.
00:02:21
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
00:02:23
Dejan
And I was watching, think it was Times podcast. I'm not really sure. But, you know, I was watching, I was watching, I think it was the Times podcast and they did an analysis of it. And it was sort of, you know,
00:02:35
Dejan
quite strange because he was, you know, in a shirt, sleeves rolled up, talking about, nationalisation of steel, you know, British workers.
00:02:45
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:02:46
Dejan
But... they made this very good point that if you said the prime minister why don't you go there you know you go you go there in front of the steel you know beams you put on a helmet and you're like yeah this is what we're gonna do it did seem more like kirsten was talking to the labor party and less so to the country you know that as they've said is is one of the signs that he's about to go i don't know how long he can hold
00:02:54
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:03:13
Dejan
think you know paradoxically way it looks like now you know West Street you've mentioned looks like there's a front runner Angela Rayner as well sort of a bit more distantly but you know who knows Andy Burnham I think right now my sort of preference would be for Kia to stay
Evaluating Starmer's Foreign Policy
00:03:35
debatablediscussions
Okay.
00:03:36
Dejan
which i know is a bit unpopular but i do i think his stance on europe and the sort foreign policy side of things actually quite good not getting involved in iran i think was 100 the right decision and it took actually quite a lot of guts i think to sort of you know take all that pressure from the country and the right wing initially but you know two days later everyone realized that yeah you know we've we've made a good decision on this So I think, you know, do I think he should stay? Honestly, yes.
00:04:07
Dejan
Where's Streeting? She's not my cup of tea. You know, I think the Mandelson business and, you know, some of his comments in the press haven't really been great.
00:04:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Oh, I mean, I'll weigh in on that. I think... I think Keir may have done a good job with foreign policy, but the issue with foreign policy is that, firstly, you have to think of actually has he done a good job in the sense that England is slightly reliant on America.
00:04:26
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:04:37
debatablediscussions
It's always been in America's shadow, one could say, since World War And perhaps it's impossible to have a good relationship with Trump. But really, it's frayed.
00:04:45
Dejan
Yeah, I think so.
Domestic Issues and Starmer's Leadership Decline
00:04:47
debatablediscussions
And then secondly, the other issue of the foreign policy is that people do care about foreign policy, but people care about domestic issues a lot more. And I think that's the other issue.
00:04:59
debatablediscussions
As you're saying there, he's done a good job with Iran not to get involved. There was pressure to get involved from not only domestically, but also internationally from Trump.
00:05:09
debatablediscussions
And so he did a sort of commendable effort there. But... in reality people don't care about foreign policy as much. Similarly, he sort of tried to plug the EU stuff, but it was just lost in that speech in my opinion because everyone's just associating him now with leaving. Leaving, they don't really care what he's saying anymore. You know, trying to sort of launch some programs to cooperate the EU or to nationalize steelworks.
00:05:39
debatablediscussions
These are sort of, he's sort of trying to throw things out to sort of see if anything can stick and land, but it's not. think people want him to leave. mean, to be honest, personally, I think, I probably think from a political angle,
00:05:53
debatablediscussions
I like Wes Streeting the most. I think he's probably the most sensible. He's on the right wing of the Labour Party. So he represents a more of a sort of centre-left faction. But then the problem is, is that a lot of the Labour Party nowadays is very left wing.
00:06:09
debatablediscussions
Not only is that being the members, but also the MPs. What I do think that Streeting has to his advantage is that he seems slightly perhaps more organised in his leadership contest. So he's clearly sort of got these some ministers and some MPs to back him, which shows sort of extent of organisation and how he's gotten them to sign these lefts to resign.
00:06:33
debatablediscussions
But then the other really big threat could be Angela Rayner. You mentioned there Diana Anteburnham as well. And there's been sort of hints that perhaps... Is there going to be a sort of joint force of Angela Rayne and Andy Burnham?
00:06:46
Dejan
Yeah, it could be.
00:06:46
debatablediscussions
They're not too far apart ideologically.
00:07:03
debatablediscussions
mean, what do you think, Diane?
00:07:07
Dejan
Yeah, don't know. think, you know, if we sort look at the most powerful people in the Labour Party, I think...
00:07:12
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:15
Dejan
You look at West Street and Angela Rayner, but you also need to look at the mayors, because the mayors do get quite a large number of direct votes.
00:07:20
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:24
Dejan
And that's Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan.
00:07:24
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:26
Dejan
I think Sadiq Khan might be the person in the UK with the most direct votes on his name.
00:07:40
Dejan
But you do vote for Sadiq Khan. So I think him as an...
00:07:43
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I suppose you also vote for the Labour Party, who the leader of Sadiq Khan.
00:07:46
Dejan
Well, yeah, but it's a sort of nominal position. It's not vote for the Labour Party and we'll figure out who's going to take the role.
00:07:49
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I suppose.
00:07:52
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:53
Dejan
You know, Sadiq Khan is there for five years. I think he's probably also quite an important member and he's on Keir Starmer's side.
00:07:57
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:08:01
Dejan
So I'd say we take that into account a little bit. His name hasn't really been thrown out there a lot in the last couple of days, which I think is, you know, interesting. But the big thing for me with Andy Burnham and Jarena...
00:08:15
Dejan
is that they're sort of fighting over the same electorate, right?
00:08:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:08:19
Dejan
The way it seems to me is that Andy Burnham's got... There's a lot more sort of organised, as you've said, than Angela Rayner, in the sense that he's managed to curate this image of this really sort of efficient, effective mayor.
00:08:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah, suppose, yeah.
00:08:33
Dejan
And a lot of people that live and don't live in the Manchester area are very positive and... And very positive about him and his sort of work.
00:08:44
Dejan
So I think I think in that sense, he's got this wind behind him. Also. Andrew Rayner and Wes and Andy Burnham are the I think they've got this of personalities and the sort of, you know, ability to win back reform seats.
Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham's Coalition Speculation
00:09:03
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I don't agree with that.
00:09:03
Dejan
I don't think West Streeting does.
00:09:04
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:09:05
Dejan
I think Andy Burnham especially, I think he can go to the sort north of the country and he can turn the sort of swing around with the reform business.
00:09:08
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:09:13
Dejan
I don't think West Streeting really has that pull at all. West Streeting is more dangerous to sort of, you know, get some seeds from the Lib Dems, get some seeds from the Greens, but really reform alone, whilst Andy Burnham can really tackle that sort of you know, wall that Boris first broke and get it back.
00:09:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah, perhaps. I think, I mean, firstly, I'll address the Sadiq Khan thing. I think the reason why Sadiq Khan's not being addressed is precisely because he's a mayor. You know, mayors can't hold cabinet positions or become a prime minister unless they are an MP.
00:09:47
Dejan
Yeah.
Sadiq Khan's Role in Labour
00:09:47
debatablediscussions
Also, I suppose Sadiq's not wildly popular as well. mean, I would think he would win the next London mayor election, but that's because I think all the other candidates just probably wouldn't be very good.
00:09:58
debatablediscussions
think the reform candidate, Leila Cunningham, isn't the best. But...
00:10:01
Dejan
And she's got no chance to London, let's be honest.
00:10:03
debatablediscussions
Yeah, and London's very left-wing city as well. But I think... I'm not convinced at all that Angela Rayner... I mean, I definitely don't think Angela Rayner would win back any seats from reform voters. I think her stint as Deputy Prime Minister shows that.
00:10:18
debatablediscussions
I also think Andy Burnham is slightly hyped up. And not slightly hyped up, totally hyped up. So he ran to be Labour leader twice in the past. He's failed both times. In 2015, he lost to Jeremy Corbyn, someone whom this sort of left-wing faction that Burnham's in preferred. They preferred Corbyn to Burnham.
00:10:38
debatablediscussions
I think he has been successful in Manchester and people like that. But Burnham's always going have the stain of Labour on him. And people may like Burnham, but Burnham is a far left in many ways socialist Labour figure. And I think come 2029, people will want Labour out of office. I don't...
00:11:01
debatablediscussions
and that's whether there's Andy Burnham or not. I don't think Andy Burnham is this sort of political messiah that people are making him out to be.
Andy Burnham's Popularity and Challenges
00:11:08
debatablediscussions
I mean, I don't think there's really much, much evidence for that. He wasn't a particularly effective cabinet minister when he was one. People even say that with Manchester, his success in Manchester is due to the CEOs.
00:11:22
debatablediscussions
of, I think it could be the council of these development boards in Manchester. So I think he's good. He's good and perhaps he's a change, but I don't think by any means he's a political messiah or he's going to save Britain or win back seats from reform. I think the fate's sealed.
00:11:39
Dejan
I think that, I think that, you mentioned something interesting. I actually don't think he does have the sort of Labour footprint on him at all. And that's for a very simple sort of reason, which is that he's been blocked.
00:11:50
Dejan
They blocked him from running.
00:11:51
debatablediscussions
Yes, but...
00:11:52
Dejan
That is how the sort of, you know, buy into a sort of Nigel Farage, sort of, you know, anti-establishment type, you know, run and that sort of stuff.
00:12:04
Dejan
They would interpret Andy Burnham as, you know, he's been blocked from running. They want to stop him. He's a sort of, you know, guy in the Labour Party who's anti-establishment, who's trying to knock it down and he's trying to, you know, get something done for the people.
00:12:17
Dejan
He's also got quite a decent approval rating. I've just checked. He's definitely the most popular Labour politician.
00:12:20
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:22
Dejan
So I think,
00:12:22
debatablediscussions
Yeah. But I think when...
00:12:24
Dejan
I think, is he hyped up a little bit? Sure. But I do think he can get some of those votes back. Because really, the people who vote for reform, economically, they're quite left-wing.
00:12:36
Dejan
It's just about the social stuff.
00:12:36
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:12:38
Dejan
That's, you know, they don't want immigration and traditional British values, whatever that means. But economically, they're not, you know, they're not going around like Javier Malay shouting to dismantle government departments. On the other hand, they actually, you know, they want government investment and stuff, just not when it comes to benefits for immigrants. They just want, you the other
00:13:01
debatablediscussions
Perhaps, but there's a big difference though, think, once you remember that he's a socialist Labour Mayor, he's been a Cabinet Minister, people know him well, he's failed to be a Labour Leaver in the past, which shows that he's never been viewed as being, historically at least, an outright candidate to be Prime Minister. He's been that by no means.
00:13:22
debatablediscussions
I honestly only think his success at the moment is because basically everyone else in the Labour Party is so awful that he's been slightly hyped up. And that's it. He's a socialist Labour politician.
00:13:36
debatablediscussions
So he may be able to win some reform votes, but he's not totally anti-establishment in that he totally wants to buy into the establishment, doesn't he? He wants to totally become PM.
00:13:47
Dejan
So there's Farage, though, but they still see him as, you know...
00:13:48
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
00:13:49
debatablediscussions
But do they, though? mean, what they see Farage as, they don't care. Reform voters don't say, I like Farage he's anti-establishment. They say it because... perhaps they like his rhetoric which isn't anti-establishment one knows it's it's anti-immigration it's saying things that are perhaps slightly fantasy economic but which sound appealing it's things like that it's anti-establishmentarianism is a sort of political
Wes Streeting's Leadership Prospects
00:14:15
debatablediscussions
philosophy that perhaps certain people like but I think really at the end of the day
00:14:23
debatablediscussions
Burnham perhaps isn't as Labour or Labour-associated as Starmer is, but he soon will become it. And he is, as I said frankly at the end of the day, he's a socialist Labour politician. But to sort of circle back, Diane, to sort of touch on Burnham, but who do think most likely to sort of manoeuvre through this political mess and actually become the Labour
00:14:48
Dejan
Yeah, well, you know, it's obviously very difficult because of the sort of place we're at. But I think it's either going to go with West Streeting, which I think would be, frankly, which is not very helpful because the problem for Labour at the moment, it's not the Lib Dems. It's a little bit the Greens.
00:15:09
Dejan
It's a little bit the Greens and it's a little bit reform because they've just taken those Labour areas.
00:15:09
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:15:15
Dejan
I think what we might have as well, which is sort of interesting and a bit different, I'd say, is I don't see why Andy Burnham would not be able to be the Labour leader without being PM.
00:15:32
Dejan
And sure, it would be a bit unorthodox. I don't think it's happened in recent times. But what might happen is that sort of Raina-Burnham coalition that you've mentioned, where either of them actually gets the leadership, but Andrew Rayner will be PM?
00:15:47
Dejan
Because I don't see Andy Burnham going in, leaving Manchester at the moment. I mean, you know, to me, wouldn't really make sense for him go do anything else rather than be PM.
00:15:57
Dejan
I don't think he'd want to go and live at number 11 Downing Street and be the Chancellor the Exchequer.
00:16:01
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:16:02
Dejan
So he might be the Labour leader, but Andrew Rayner might be the PM you know, other way around. We'll see.
00:16:07
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:16:08
Dejan
We'll see.
00:16:14
Dejan
Let's see it.
00:16:21
debatablediscussions
think... It seems far more unified to have the Labour leader be the PM if that is the case, that they couldn't. But I imagine they would have to be simply because it's more unified. think...
00:16:33
debatablediscussions
In my opinion, I don't think Wes will become the next leader. I think it will be Rainer or Burnham or Rainer and Burnham if there is this deal. Simply because streeting doesn't represent the modern Labour Party, which is quite left-wing, as I said, both in its MPs and in its membership. I think Wes probably sort of comes across as being slightly too Starmerite. He's associated with that sort of right, more right or centrist side of the party.
00:17:20
debatablediscussions
I think it's starting to...
00:17:20
Dejan
Yeah, I mean, it's not going well for him.
00:17:33
debatablediscussions
There's now a fiasco he's got council tax.
00:17:37
debatablediscussions
It's just constant things like that. He's always sort of endorsed fantasy economics Polanski. So I think he'll crash and burn and perhaps there will be that gap which Labour fills of this further left
Labour Party's Internal Divisions
00:17:49
debatablediscussions
voter.
00:17:49
debatablediscussions
But I think that sort of voter is diminishing anyway. What do you think, Dan, is your sort of final thoughts of the podcast?
00:17:56
Dejan
Yeah, I don't know. I mean, you know, Zach Polanski, it's not going well for him at the moment. I think he's got some sort big PR issues he needs to address.
00:18:01
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:04
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:06
Dejan
But really, I agree with you. I don't think it's going go West Street things away, but I think the Mandelstall scandal as well.
00:18:14
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:18:14
Dejan
It's just not doing him any favours.
00:18:15
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:16
Dejan
I mean, you know, I'm surprised he's because that was sort of grounds for people to bury him.
00:18:16
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:21
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:25
Dejan
And, you know, that might happen now. I mean, if he's the Labour leader, I mean, you already know, you know, Kemi Baden-Og, Nigel Farage and Ed Davey are going to be out there every single day talking to the press saying how West Streeting used to be Mandelson's protege.
00:18:38
Dejan
So, you know, it's not a position I think the Labour Party wants to be in. You want avoid controversy at the moment. The last thing you need is to get West Streeting with all his baggage.
00:18:50
Dejan
But also Andrew Rayner with the sort of council tax or the...
00:18:54
debatablediscussions
Yeah, she's got that whole mess.
00:18:55
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:58
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:59
Dejan
This is why I think we might get sort third canter maybe we're not even expecting.
00:19:06
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:19:06
Dejan
Could be someone like Andy Burnham. Again, it could be someone like, we just haven't mentioned this whole interview and they're actually going to sort of get get in for a for a mandate of no controversy, sort of quiet, quiet transition, easy transition, which, you know, in many ways would be beneficial.
00:19:26
Dejan
I think the last thing the Labour Party needs right now is a massive rift between them.
00:19:27
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:19:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah. But I suppose that's emerging. I think it's faction driven, the Labour Party was saying.
00:19:37
Dejan
Yeah,
00:19:39
debatablediscussions
this street, this streeting or if it's this Rainer Burnham faction with I suppose the issue that Burnham isn't an MP. So we'll conclude the episode with
Podcast Break Announcement
00:19:48
debatablediscussions
that. We will also be taking a short pause with our release schedule in the coming weeks. Me and Diane, we're sort of going to be attacking our A-level exams next.
00:19:59
debatablediscussions
And so that will take us a few weeks. So we'll be sort of finding ways to keep you engaged in the meantime, though.
00:20:08
Dejan
Yeah, as always, if you enjoyed the episode, do leave us comment and like. And in the meantime, until we're back, which will be a while, but we will sort post weekly for an old episode we've done while ago, one that maybe hasn't gone on the sort of views or the sort of exposure that it deserved to get there's some really interesting episodes that we've done in the past either us two or with some some guests we'll we'll be promoting those so if you haven't seen those already and that you know the topic at hand seems interesting to you do join in and we will see you again the summer see then
00:20:44
debatablediscussions
Summer, yeah. See then.