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S4 E28: British Politics in 2025
31 Plays25 days ago
The Debatable Discussions Christmas Special.
Join Dejan and John as they discuss British politics in 2025, and its future in the coming years. Go subscribe/follow the podcast, and rate us 5 stars wherever you are listening.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview of 2025
00:00:01
Dejan
Hello, welcome back to another episode of the debatable discussions podcast. Today we've got very special episodes, the Christmas special, actually, I might have to specify where we're going to go through a whistle stop tour of 2025. Yeah.
00:00:17
debatablediscussions
Yes, Diane, as you said there, 2025 has been quite a busy and exciting year for politics. I read an article which said it's been a bit of a carnival what we've experienced this year.
Labour's Victory and Challenges
00:00:29
debatablediscussions
We've had Labour government with one of the largest electoral majorities in memory and the Tory party defeated by their worst ever results. However, rather unusually for a Labour party, which should be so popular,
00:00:46
debatablediscussions
We've seen them actually flounder and falter under the rising threat of reform and even the Green Party, all of which we will discuss in this episode.
00:00:57
debatablediscussions
But firstly, I'll give a quick overview of what has actually happened this year. So to sort of break it up into three or four quarters, initially we had in January, the first thing that I remember from reading articles was actually this petition debated in Parliament by a landlord who was the person who started the petition to have another general election. And I think that's very symbolic of the rest of 2025.
00:01:29
debatablediscussions
It's a year of which people are rather unhappy with the Labour government, even and in particular those who voted for them.
00:01:35
Dejan
Yeah.
00:01:36
debatablediscussions
Similarly, there have been, you know, many resignations amongst Labour ministers in that first quarter of the year. Tulip Sadiq resigned as city minister, Andrew Gwynn as health minister, Anneliese Dodds as minister for international development, and then the Labour MP Mike Amesbury also lost his seat.
00:01:56
debatablediscussions
Then obviously that led to Sarah Potchen becoming the MP for Runcorn Hellsby, a huge win for
Emerging Political Figures and Shifts
00:02:05
debatablediscussions
Farage.
00:02:05
debatablediscussions
Then going into quarter two, we saw this rising figure of Zia Youssef. He merged on...
00:02:13
Dejan
Yeah.
00:02:14
debatablediscussions
on the political stage. In addition, Robert Jenrick started his activity on social media, starting to appear to be perhaps the real leader of the Conservative Party.
Political Innovations and Backlashes
00:02:25
debatablediscussions
Other things included Reform UK announcing that they would start to accept donations in cryptocurrency via slightly sceptical Polish platform.
00:02:34
Dejan
Yeah.
00:02:38
debatablediscussions
Similarly, Rachel Reeves changed the winter fuel allowance and then U-turned on that. So that was another sort of shambolic saga for the Labour government.
00:02:48
debatablediscussions
Similarly, we saw someone actually our age, Diane, be elected to become leader in Morrochshire Council in the second quarter the year.
00:02:56
Dejan
Yeah.
00:02:56
debatablediscussions
In June, George Finch, 18 years old, so literally the same age as us, he became leader of, I think, £1.5 billion of assets in Morrochshire
00:03:07
Dejan
Around that, yeah.
Young Leadership and New Parties
00:03:09
debatablediscussions
around that, which is quite astonishing, but equally perhaps monumental
00:03:09
Dejan
Around that.
00:03:15
debatablediscussions
victory for young people in politics. Similarly, there were many other things that happened. In July, Zahra Sultana announced her new party of Jeremy Corbyn, something which we spoke on that could have had potential, and we'll get to it later in the episode, but sort of has fizzled out.
00:03:32
Dejan
has fizzled out a little bit.
00:03:33
debatablediscussions
Poor management between the two. Then in the third quarter of the year, between September to October, we saw Zach Polanski, or sorry, in the summer, I mean. We saw Zach Polanski in the third quarter of the year.
00:03:47
debatablediscussions
He became leader of the Green Party, this former professional hypnotist and actor, and he seemed to be very popular.
00:03:53
Dejan
Yeah.
00:03:56
debatablediscussions
And then finally, to finish off the year, we had the Labour and Conservative Party conference, the Labour Party conference, which was overshadowed largely by all these speculations and talks, actually, of who would be the next Labour leader after Andy Burnham's name was thrown into the ring.
00:04:14
debatablediscussions
And to finish off the year, there's been a rather interesting political discussion.
New Media and Political Critiques
00:04:20
debatablediscussions
emergence on the scene and that is the Liz Truss show and Diane and me we should be quite happy because in the show's first hour it got 400 views which really isn't that many and Debatable Discussions isn't at that stage yet but it's not too far so
00:04:33
Dejan
No.
00:04:38
debatablediscussions
Yes, so perhaps that's slightly optimistic for us, but perhaps not for Liz Truss.
00:04:39
Dejan
Yeah.
00:04:43
debatablediscussions
But firstly, and I mentioned his name there, Diane, let's talk about Zach Polanski. He's proved to be very popular, championing this sort of eco-socialist cause.
00:04:54
debatablediscussions
What do you think about Zach and the Green Party?
00:04:54
Dejan
Yeah.
00:04:58
Dejan
I mean. You know, I think I think he's kept up his profession as a hypnotist, even now that he's in power. He's managed to hypnotize large number of people with these sort of promises of distributing wealth, redistributing wealth.
00:05:17
Dejan
solving the housing crisis the energy crisis the global warming crisis every crisis on earth he can solve it he can do it how with what plans what money what people we don't know don't think he knows as well but you know he's he's sort of
00:05:23
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:05:39
Dejan
The other side of the coin is Nigel Farage, both sort populist leaders who are just promising everything under the sun, but without much experience or anything to be able to actually deliver on those promises. I'm not optimistic. I think we saw fairly shambolic performance on the racist politics.
00:06:07
Dejan
But again, just didn't seem to impact his supporters. His supporters after that said, oh, why does he need to know the deficit of that? Well, I mean, he doesn't, but who are the people that will?
00:06:18
Dejan
You know, is Gary's economics going to be the Chancellor of the Exchequer?
00:06:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:06:21
Dejan
That's my question. Is that his sort of number one guy? I mean, to me, it's just a bit disorganised, but he has managed to capitalise on this issue.
00:06:32
Dejan
very weird, very polarized period in politics where, you know, I think in the midst of, if you're, if you are more on the left wing side of things and you're not a Lib Dem or you're not in that sort of sphere of interest and you're more in the sort of more left wing of the Labour Party, maybe sort of bit of jamie corbin bit of your party and amidst the whole sort of problems with your party because they can't really get anything together labor party is also not doing really great so he's managed to fill that gap and provide the space if so if we can do it we will do it and all that kind stuff i'm i'm not very optimistic again think he's doing exactly what farash has done with the with the toys on the right
00:07:00
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:23
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:07:24
Dejan
Again, if you're a Tory, hard Tory, fine. If you're more on the sort of left-wing side of the Tory party, you're maybe going to migrate into the Lib Dems.
Strategies and Predictions for Elections
00:07:32
Dejan
But if you're in that sort of right side of the Tory party with Boris Johnson, after Boris got kicked out effectively of leadership and you didn't really have that sort of person anymore, Farage managed to fill that gap and get votes. So I think they're doing the same thing. Not very optimistic about either of them.
00:07:51
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I agree you, Diane. I think... I mean, firstly, I think that Zach Palantino is economically illiterate. I don't think he really has pretty much any idea of basic economics.
00:08:03
debatablediscussions
And... A leader should, and a leader should know all these things, like the budgets, like facts about the budget, like facts about basic facts about country's debt. Because if he's running the country, he should know all this. You'd expect him to know all this because he is managing all of these economic issues.
00:08:21
debatablediscussions
And that interview he did with the rest of his politics, of which he called an ambush, and which I wouldn't really call an ambush. I think it's just sort of regular questioning you would give to a politician, especially after he had proved to have really no idea of what was going on economically.
00:08:37
debatablediscussions
I think he showed that in a way that he was very similar to Farage.
00:08:37
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:42
debatablediscussions
He's excellent Zach Polanski at media, at using social media, at being almost a populist,
00:08:45
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:49
Dejan
Well, I think he is.
00:08:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah, and he is.
00:08:51
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:52
debatablediscussions
And actually, Farage said he thinks he's an absolute lunatic, but he's not surprised that someone decided to copy him with the populist social media media use and sort of utilisation.
00:09:04
Dejan
Yeah.
00:09:05
debatablediscussions
And, you know, fair enough, because someone should have because it clearly wins a lot of support. So Zach Polanski, he's very clever in that area, but I think him running the country would just be close to a car crash and his interviews have proved that. He doesn't have the substance underneath his sort of style.
00:09:24
debatablediscussions
But going on to that, Diane, you mentioned there as well Reform UK, who have had a fairly and actually very successful year, one could say.
00:09:32
Dejan
Yeah.
00:09:32
debatablediscussions
They won the Runcorn by-election, but only a slim majority, but still it was a big win, defeating a previously Labour seat. Similarly, in the local elections, they won 677 out of 1,641 seats contested.
00:09:50
debatablediscussions
Similarly, they won the leadership in many councils, including ones that were previously Labour strongholds. Durham, for example, is an example of that, a previously very Labour area, which went to reform and people were quite happy to see it go to reform.
00:10:07
Dejan
Yeah.
00:10:08
debatablediscussions
Farage has done well. But I think, as you mentioned there, Diane, some of the same criticisms that we give to Polanski can also be levelled and presented towards Farage.
00:10:20
Dejan
Yeah, definitely.
00:10:21
debatablediscussions
This idea of economic illiteracy and not really having a good grasp on the economy. Farage's manifesto in 2024 and some of the policies presented really just showed how he lacked any understanding of the UK economy. These huge spending cuts he wanted to do, but also to raise benefits and errors and lower taxes.
00:10:42
debatablediscussions
They made no sense. I think
00:10:43
Dejan
Yeah.
00:10:45
debatablediscussions
Actually, you can see that he started to do a bit of a retreat from then because he knows they aren't possible. But I think that is still a major problem for this reformed government. Their lack of real political experience will pose some challenges.
00:11:00
debatablediscussions
But similar to the sort of emerging parties we've seen, there's another one which you alluded to, Diane, and that is your party. Not your party, but the party of Jeremy Corbyn and Zahra Sultana.
00:11:14
debatablediscussions
How do you think this perhaps political project almost has performed this year? Yeah.
00:11:19
Dejan
I think if you asked me this question a couple of months ago, I would have said that Labour's got very big issue and that they need to cut a deal with Corbyn immediately.
00:11:26
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:11:29
Dejan
Now, I actually think it's helping them, to be honest, because the sort very poor management, the very public disagreements, fights, boycotts, but also the very clear lack of having any idea of how to manage a small party that alone a country is helping Labour's point.
00:11:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:11:47
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:11:49
Dejan
in sort of providing stability, providing serious party to lead the UK. Because at the moment, and I think this is, you know, this is Labour's of shot to victory. In the next election, if I was in charge of messaging, this is what I'd focus on, is this notion of stability and seriousness.
00:12:09
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:09
Dejan
Because on one hand, you've got the very incompetent-looking, your party.
00:12:15
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:17
Dejan
You've got The hypnotist, Zach Polanski. You've got Nigel Farage, who's promising everything under the sun, whilst also having milkshakes thrown at him and singing I'm an insomniac at the conference, as well as, you know, just saying they're going to deport everyone, no matter if they're citizens or not.
00:12:29
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:44
Dejan
You've got the Tories, who are still haven't recovered yet. And I think it's, you know, Kemi Badenock has had this conversation with someone sort of praising Kemi Badenock. And I think if you are a sort if you are a Tory Tory, if you're a sort of, if that is your specific niche where you actually find yourself, then yeah, I think she's doing a good job. But if you're a bit like me and you're not really a conservative in really any to be honest... But you also, you know, just, I think she's doing a very poor job of attracting people who aren't hearts of conservatives, really.
00:13:20
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:22
Dejan
I think Ed Davey, frankly, has managed to that a lot more than everyone else and has managed to take people who aren't
00:13:29
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:13:31
Dejan
exactly where the lib dems are they may be bit more left wing or a bit more right wing or a bit more like this a bit more like that but he's managed to sort give this notion of stability seriousness also said keeping the sort of fun media engaging persona so you've really the only party that at the moment is serious contender to labor is the lib dems this is my opinion i think everyone else is sort of too divided too fractured too having bigger issues in their own backyard and they can't really deal with the pressure of having an election either thing if there was to be an election i think labor still win and they'd win if if they'd win they win on this notion of providing stability and providing seriousness what do you think john
00:14:17
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I think, mean, I'll touch on all those parties you've mentioned. I think, firstly, the Yor party of Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana could have done extremely well.
00:14:27
Dejan
yeah
00:14:27
debatablediscussions
And the reason why is reflected by Zach Plancy's Green Party. I think, is it something like they've had over 100,000 members and they're basically the same...
00:14:35
Dejan
yeah yeah more or less yeah
00:14:37
debatablediscussions
support groups they're the same voters and it shows that actually that sort of socialist brand is very popular and there's the support for it so your party could have done very well but this sort of internal feud internal disagreement and just sort of organisational mess and conflict that has been created by Corbyn and Sultana just not being able to agree on basically anything has prevented any sort of essence of
00:15:03
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:06
debatablediscussions
success for the party so and in fairness the Green Party has really sort established itself on that angle of politics then the Tories I think have had I think the Tories are we I think the Tories will end the year on a high frankly And the reason why is this. They started with a very turbulent year.
00:15:26
debatablediscussions
They didn't have any policies. I'm still not really sure they do. But they didn't have really any policies. Kemi wasn't really getting much media attention and was seen more of a distant figure.
00:15:36
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:39
debatablediscussions
then I think whilst perhaps challenging public's perception of the Conservative Party's leadership, Robert Jenrick and his use of social media really presented and helped sort of improve this perception of the Conservative Party.
00:15:53
debatablediscussions
And I think someone needed to do that because the party slightly falling onto the back foot. especially in how all these other parties were using social media. So Robert Jenrick helped raise the profile. Then they had a very successful, in my eyes, Conservative Party conference, purely because there wasn't really too much trouble. Labour's party conference didn't go particularly well with all these talks of could Burnham be the next Prime Minister.
00:16:21
debatablediscussions
And it seemed to go well. It seemed to be very organised. Lots of good media stories you saw about
00:16:27
Dejan
Apart from an awful misspell. Yeah.
00:16:29
debatablediscussions
Yes, I did see that awful misspelling of, what was it, Britain? So they had a few slight hiccups, but I think it really actually cemented support within the party itself.
00:16:41
debatablediscussions
I do agree with you in that they're not attracting voters on the right wing. The people who are doing that, or in the centre, but the people who are attracting right wing is now reform.
00:16:46
Dejan
Or on the center. Or in the center.
00:16:53
debatablediscussions
They're even attracting parts of what would traditionally be viewed as the Labour left wing.
00:16:58
Dejan
Yeah.
00:16:59
debatablediscussions
reform sort of filling the vacuum but to go to the Lib Dems I think they're doing well the Lib Dems polling suggests they're doing fairly sort of stable position stable party which does have support but I've never viewed them as being a strong contender to Labour and I just don't think they will be I think the extent to which they attract for conservative voters will be somewhat limited.
00:17:29
debatablediscussions
think they have, but... They're more of a left-wing party than they really are of a centrist party. So I don't think they will.
00:17:38
debatablediscussions
I think even Ed Davies said something recently about rejoining the customs union, which will annoy certain Tories, even those who would join because it would just be a mess and quite difficult to rejoin.
00:17:45
Dejan
Well, yeah, that's thing there.
00:17:51
debatablediscussions
Also about the Lib Dems, There's this thing of how they're just really far back in the public perception of politics. They don't get the media attention of reform.
00:17:59
Dejan
Yeah.
00:18:01
debatablediscussions
And I wouldn't vote for reform, but... But Reform are popular because they actually appear to be pulled to be the second, third party of the UK. And they've sort of displaced the Lib Dems. You actually have almost 10 times as many seats, if not more, than Reform. But Reform appeared to be the second or third party in the UK. And they've sort of moved the Lib Dems back to really back...
00:18:28
debatablediscussions
And also, the major challenge with the Lib Dems is that they're not really a national party. They're a southern-centred, south-east-centred party. They don't really attract national support. And additionally, the Lib Dems... I like Sir Red Davey in the sense that he's good at media, but I do honestly think he lacks a bit of substance in areas. I think he can be a bit too fun games. He doesn't seem prime ministerial enough.
00:18:55
debatablediscussions
Not that that means much in today's world of politics in Britain.
00:18:59
Dejan
Yeah, I think anyone seems prime ministerial to be honest.
00:19:00
debatablediscussions
Yeah, because not many seem like they would be Prime Minister. But I think Lib Dems at the next election will lose seats. That's my prediction for 2029. And that's simply because I think people will have recovered from the mess which the Tories left. And they'll vote for the Tories over the Lib Dems. Because the Lib Dems won't able to do much when they're in office.
00:19:22
Dejan
I'm I'm really not sure.
00:19:22
debatablediscussions
They want... Because I think the Lib Dems in my eyes only won because of Tory Labour dissatisfaction. And I think there'll be a reform Tory. My prediction of 2029 is a win for some sort of reform Tory coalition.
00:19:37
Dejan
now
00:19:37
debatablediscussions
There have been talks, there have been sort of insider sources at reform saying that it could happen. And I think the Lib Dems, I think it would go reform Tory coalition first, Labour, Lib Dems green. What do you think, Diane?
00:19:53
Dejan
i i i would disagree i think labor labor with with the election
00:19:57
Dejan
a very narrow majority, I think they still win the election. Either that or they'd cut a deal with the Lib Dems or the Greens someone like that and get
Immigration and Economic Debates
00:20:05
Dejan
into power. I think if we assume that we've got three years more of this sort of migration craziness,
00:20:10
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:13
Dejan
of reform of the Tories, because the Tories have bought in. know, Kerry Bailenock has completely bought in into this literal craziness about both legal and illegal migration with expelling people with indefinite leave to remain and all of that kind of stuff. If this keeps going, I think the dissatisfaction will go to such a level with the right wing, because at the moment, we've only had this for about, what,
00:20:41
Dejan
Two years? That's fair?
00:20:42
debatablediscussions
Yeah, but I would say, though, that that immigration, those immigration policies, whilst we disagree with them, the immigration policies of the right and now the left, Sakhir sort of implementing quite harsh immigration policies, they are very popular.
00:20:56
Dejan
He's born into it as well.
00:20:59
debatablediscussions
That's why they're doing it. It's because they win votes.
00:21:00
Dejan
I think that they're very popular now, but I think if you let them brew over for three more years, I think it will start rubbing people in the very opposite way.
00:21:10
debatablediscussions
But why? Because people seem to be annoyed by immigration. But I think they will be.
00:21:14
Dejan
At the moment, yeah, but...
00:21:17
debatablediscussions
Immigration is a sort of long-term issue. And I think...
00:21:28
Dejan
Every other time before an election, I think the economy was first. You know, it was the economy. It was the economy. It was how well you can manage the British economy and how well you can manage the state. It wasn't ever, which I think is now the case, of who's got the harshest migration policies.
00:21:47
debatablediscussions
I think that's a bold claim. I think of Enoch Powell, who was in the 20th century. But since then, immigration has been a major element of British politics. It was a major element of the Brexit campaign.
00:22:00
Dejan
Yeah, but before the Brexit campaign...
00:22:00
debatablediscussions
But even before that, I even think before that, immigration has been major issue in British politics and it will remain a major issue.
00:22:10
debatablediscussions
I don't, perhaps it's eminence on the political scene. It goes between perhaps being the fifth or third most important issue to sometimes the first as it is nowadays.
00:22:20
Dejan
I think it was...
00:22:27
Dejan
Yeah, I agree with you, but I don't think it was ever the main issue, which now it seems to be.
00:22:32
Dejan
All the main parties are talking about, Labour, Tories and reform, all that they're talking about is new migration policies. Keir Starmer's just implemented this new thing about how you've got to be 10 years in the country before you can apply for indefinite leave to remain instead of five and just making everything a longer process, a more heavy process. So I don't ever think...
00:22:55
Dejan
that immigration, yeah, important, but it's never had the sort of podium position that has now of being constantly in the first place and constantly on people's minds.
00:23:07
Dejan
And I think in three years, I think it will blow over. I don't think in three years, immigration will have the same status as it does now. I think there's going to be some new problem that people are going to be much more concerned about.
00:23:20
Dejan
And one that I think the Labour Party and the Lib Dems and the sort of left wing will be able to implement more. I mean, I think we're seeing this now. You know, you've got Zach Polanski and these people going on about wealth inequality and wealth distribution. I think in two, three years time, the main issue people going have is not going to migration. going to be wealth inequality.
00:23:38
debatablediscussions
I disagree. So I would say, firstly, immigration has been a major issue of British politics since the 50s, 60s. It has been huge issue, huge part of British politics. I refer to Enoch Powell's speech, and that, with the breakdown of the British Empire and in the 50s, showed, even before, perhaps before the war, it was a big issue and World War I.
00:24:01
debatablediscussions
But since then, immigration became a big thing. There was the Immigration Act in 1971. And it was that from the 60s was the focus, the starting point of immigration.
00:24:13
debatablediscussions
And then I think in the 2000s, it emerged as a major issue as well, perhaps in different light, but even especially the Brexit campaign. And immigration is tied to economic problems in the UK.
00:24:43
debatablediscussions
But I think it's because immigration is scapegoated by political parties.
00:24:45
Dejan
Yeah.
00:24:47
debatablediscussions
But nonetheless, it shows that immigration has been a huge issue British politics. early 2000s, perhaps the rhetoric has changed. You know, after things like 9-11, there were lots of fears about immigration in a different sort of manner.
00:24:59
Dejan
Yeah.
00:25:00
debatablediscussions
But immigration's always, in my eyes, been a major issue
Right-wing Politics and Labour's Future
00:25:03
debatablediscussions
of British politics. The rise of UKIP shows that and things. So I think immigration has always been major. I think perhaps it may be less big of an issue in three years, but like it's always been in British politics, it will be an issue. It will be in the top five biggest issues. So I think reform will be able to capitalise off it, as have right-wing parties capitalised of immigration since the turn of the century.
00:25:29
debatablediscussions
And I think... I think the major threat to Labour doing well would be a Tory reform coalition because reform attracts this type of Labour voter which would split the Labour votes because reform would be able to attract Labour voters but the first part of the post system they're predicting that parties could or seats could be won by a party with let's say just 25% of the vote
00:25:44
Dejan
Yeah.
00:25:55
Dejan
Even less, I'd guess.
00:25:55
debatablediscussions
We'll have Zach Polanski attracting left-wing voters. Then we'll have Kia attracting some Labour voters. Then there'll be reform attracting some more Labour voters, some more right voters.
00:26:07
Dejan
Ed Davey may be getting some Labour voters as well.
00:26:10
debatablediscussions
Ed Davey may be getting some Labour voters as well, but it will be so splintered, the vote. And I wonder the extent to which Labour Ed would get, sorry, Ed Davey would get Labour voters, because I think it would only be in the South, in London.
00:26:24
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:26:24
debatablediscussions
sort of viewed as being far too metropolitan, far too liberal for the rest of the country.
00:26:30
debatablediscussions
So I think it will be splintered. And so... I think it will be a coalition of some sort that will win. think Farage would probably be sensible enough.
00:26:42
debatablediscussions
And there is, you read sort of in articles that donors of the Reform Party have been saying, you know, about a coalition for 2029. So I think, don't think it will be this year, but I think in one or two years time, he will announce a coalition.
00:26:57
debatablediscussions
And I think it has the potential to do well. I mean, obviously, we've talked about all that has happened this year in politics, so lot could happen in what would be three years, around three years until the next election.
00:27:07
Dejan
Yeah, I think
00:27:10
debatablediscussions
But I think there is a rise of the right wing across Europe and in the UK. They'll continue to do well. I don't think Sakhir's government will do anything outstanding, and I think that paves the way. What do you think, Dan?
00:27:23
Dejan
Yeah, you know, I think we agree on the fact that there will be a coalition winning in 2029.
00:27:27
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yeah.
00:27:27
Dejan
I think the difference is I think it's going a left wing coalition and not right wing coalition.
00:27:30
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:27:33
Dejan
Because, again, I keep saying this at the moment, I think immigration is big enough to win a young election. You know, I don't think in 2029, I assume it'll be big, but I think it'll be big enough by itself to win you an election.
00:27:46
Dejan
On the other hand, I think wealth inequality with the amount of money that is being pumped into that issue by left-wing parties at the moment, and with the amount of noise being made about it, I think wealth inequality in 2029 will be big enough to win you an election.
00:28:03
Dejan
And if Keir, and Keir won't be Labour leader, I think they will go with someone else.
00:28:03
debatablediscussions
I, this is.
00:28:08
Dejan
And I think if they manage to tap into that sphere, I think they can win the election again.
00:28:14
debatablediscussions
I don't think wealth inequality would be a big issue because I don't think wealth inequality has ever been a major issue. So the UK is actually in the top five countries with some of the biggest wealth inequality.
00:28:25
Dejan
Yeah.
00:28:26
debatablediscussions
but I don't think it will ever be big enough because I think Zach Polanski will start to be viewed as a Farage-like figure, which he is, in the sense that a populist who's good at media but lacks policies.
00:28:27
Dejan
Quite rapidly.
00:28:40
debatablediscussions
I don't know if people... And wealth inequality is a big issue, but it's just not one of the main issues in British politics. It never has been. I can't really think of it being major issue in any Western country's politics, because there are bigger ones.
00:28:58
debatablediscussions
It's like immigration, but which country has shown...
00:28:58
Dejan
I disagree with you.
00:29:02
debatablediscussions
that wealth inequality has been a huge issue down because I've never... I can't think of a country showing with wealth inequality ever being the major issue in politics. It's always... It could be economic, but I think...
00:29:17
Dejan
I think if you
00:29:17
debatablediscussions
I mean, I think Zach Palant is very bothered with wealth inequality. But if that is the case, we have record high numbers of people leaving, educated people leaving, and people know that.
00:29:29
debatablediscussions
It's slightly disastrous for the economy to start taxing the very richest and the most educated section of British society because they leave.
00:29:37
Dejan
I think if you keep the logic up with immigration, of how it's being used by political parties at the moment, right?
00:29:40
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:29:44
Dejan
With sort of every... Oh, you don't have a job. Immigration. You're paid poorly. Immigration. You don't really have an education. Your kids don't have an education. Immigration. The answer to every problem is immigration.
00:29:57
Dejan
I think if Labour are smart, they will manage to change that rhetoric... and sort of counterbalance it with, why don't you have a job? Wealth inequality.
00:30:08
Dejan
Why don't you do this?
00:30:09
Dejan
Wealth inequality.
00:30:10
debatablediscussions
Why do you have juggle wealth inequality?
00:30:11
Dejan
How?
00:30:12
debatablediscussions
What's the answer behind that?
00:30:13
Dejan
Yeah. But people, why people buying immigration? It makes zero sense in both.
00:30:18
debatablediscussions
I know, but, Dan, immigration, you can sort of make an answer out of, why do you not have a job, wealth inequality?
00:30:22
Dejan
No, you can't. Yeah.
00:30:26
debatablediscussions
mean, That makes... With immigration, you can form a line of argument, and you can form a line of reasoning.
00:30:30
Dejan
No, you can't.
00:30:32
Dejan
No, you can't.
00:30:32
debatablediscussions
But, Dan, this phrase, why do you not have a job because of wealth inequality, makes literally no sense.
00:30:39
debatablediscussions
As in, it makes less sense than immigration. Because try and explain how... You don't have a job because of wealth inequality.
00:30:46
Dejan
But you don't even, John, you don't even have to explain it.
00:30:46
debatablediscussions
Explain how that works.
00:30:49
Dejan
That's the thing. I think we're moving out with the way people are sort of engaging nowadays with politics. Let's be honest. You don't have to make a cohesive, logical, factual-based argument. You have to have this buzzword that, for some reason or another, is being used as a result every issue. And when people are going to say, oh, why my children not being able to go to school? It's because, oh, the rich don't pay taxes.
00:31:13
Dejan
That's what people are going to say. Oh, why am I not being able to live besides benefits? Because the rich don't pay taxes. Why do I have potholes? Because the rich don't pay taxes. It's going to every single issue.
00:31:26
Dejan
I think they're going to scapegoat. They're going to scapegoat the rich for every single issue and they're going to weaponise it into political agenda.
00:31:34
debatablediscussions
It won't work. It will get destroyed. You can't blame things on wealth inequality to that extent because it's just an awful line of argument. The rich pay the most amount taxes in the UK by far. And I agree with what you mean, but I think it will get destroyed, that line of argument, before it well.
00:31:49
Dejan
Bye. Bye.
00:31:51
debatablediscussions
By the right wing, by people like Farage, even within the Labour Party, I think they'll know that political messaging is nonsense. I'll give you example. So... I don't agree with this stance, but you can say poor economic problems are caused by immigration. And you could say things like because this rapid population growth causes strain on public services, a strain on housing.
00:32:13
debatablediscussions
So the issues with the housing market is commonly seen as used as an issue of immigration because that causes rapid population growth.
00:32:23
debatablediscussions
You can't say that the issues of the housing market are a result of wealth inequality.
00:32:26
Dejan
Yes, you can. Yes, you can.
00:32:28
debatablediscussions
How would you do that?
00:32:29
Dejan
You can, because you can make the argument that people own more than one house and they shouldn't be able to, and I can't afford a house, why can Joe have 15? He should sell all of them to me and to all other people who can't afford a house for low price so I can live.
00:32:43
Dejan
Yes, you can.
00:32:44
Dejan
It's exactly as poor as immigration. And I agree with you, it doesn't really make sense, but people...
00:32:49
debatablediscussions
I don't think that's... I don't think... That's an awful line of argument, though, saying that there's an issue the housing market because rich people are buying too many...
00:32:58
debatablediscussions
houses, but rich people, I don't think rich people are buying lots and lots of houses.
00:32:58
Dejan
How is this? How is that a poorer line of argument?
00:33:04
debatablediscussions
I don't think that's the issue. I honestly don't think it will be because it's not a substantial enough argument.
00:33:10
Dejan
Neither is the immigration wrong.
00:33:11
debatablediscussions
People in the UK aren't bothered enough. People in the UK are very bothered about immigration. They always
00:33:16
Dejan
Why?
00:33:17
debatablediscussions
Why? Because, I don't know, there's something in our psyche, because it's been used as this reason for economic problems, and also perhaps, and that wealth inequality has never been a big issue.
00:33:29
debatablediscussions
No one has ever thought to use it as a big issue, because people like, yeah, but people like Corbyn tried to.
00:33:32
Dejan
Yet.
00:33:36
debatablediscussions
Corbyn didn't get into office. People thought Corbyn, on
00:33:38
Dejan
Yeah, but he got more votes. He got more votes than here.
00:33:40
debatablediscussions
He did get more votes than Kia, but Corbyn with Prime Minister was regarded as just being disastrous because his policies of wealth, to try and solve wealth inequality, would have ran the UK into an economic black hole, frankly.
00:33:46
Dejan
And, and, and,
00:33:54
Dejan
It also didn't really help, though, with Corbyn, the fact that his own persona was so damaged by a bunch of anti-Semitism allegations and much more.
00:34:02
debatablediscussions
Yeah. No, I agree. But also, but you have to remember that Corbyn did have a cult following. Corbyn was very popular, even with all this anti-Semini stuff.
00:34:09
Dejan
Yeah, I think...
00:34:10
debatablediscussions
That's bigger. But I don't... But going back to your wealth inequality...
00:34:13
Dejan
It just shows, John, it doesn't have to make sense.
00:34:15
debatablediscussions
Yeah, going back to your wealth inequality, it doesn't make sense, but... I don't think wealth inequality... I don't think reform immigration is a good argument, but I think immigration is a better argument than saying, oh, you can't buy a house because rich people buy too many houses.
00:34:30
Dejan
the case that immigrants are taking your jobs. That's not the case either.
00:34:33
debatablediscussions
I know, but I think you can form a better argument for immigration.
00:34:36
Dejan
No, you can't.
00:34:36
debatablediscussions
Any there, we...
00:34:37
Dejan
They're both factually wrong. They're both equally as factually wrong as each other. It's just about whether people interact with it.
00:34:41
debatablediscussions
Yeah, but...
00:34:43
Dejan
And I think if the left wing is smart, I think overall they can get people to interact with it. I think, you know, if you look sort of overall...
00:34:53
Dejan
In Europe now, yes, the far right is dominating, but if you look at the sort of people that are most rapidly growing in percentage votes, it is people in that side of economics.
00:35:04
Dejan
It's people in the sort of very left, very green, and they're the fastest growing people at the moment.
00:35:06
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:35:09
Dejan
I think in a couple of years... the right is going to sort of be there so much that people going to get tired of them. And they're to have so many blunders that they're going shoot themselves in the foot so many times that the sort of anti-status quo alternative is not going to be the far right anymore.
00:35:30
Dejan
It's going to be the far left. And you're going to have, again, weaponized nonsense message that is going to work.
00:35:35
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I don't agree. I think the main reason for this is this. The far left are known to be economically disastrous.
00:35:45
debatablediscussions
If we go back to this example of using a slogan of wealth inequality, people know that that will absolutely neglect growth and it will neglect a country's economic performance.
00:35:54
debatablediscussions
Anyone will know.
00:35:55
Dejan
Will they care? Will they care though?
00:35:56
debatablediscussions
They will care because people seem to care a lot about inflation. They seem to care a lot about issues, let's say, like the housing market, economic issues. Economic issues have always been,
Economic Policies and Party Support
00:36:07
debatablediscussions
we're talking about immigration, but economic issues are the undercurrent of political concerns.
00:36:07
Dejan
But
00:36:11
Dejan
I think John, you're talking about two different things.
00:36:13
Dejan
But, you know, I just disagree with because I think there's two types of economic policies. And I think there's the economic policy from a sort of first-person view and from a third-person view.
00:36:23
Dejan
And yeah, from a third-person view, from a sort of observer view, yes, people know that the far left is economically disastrous.
00:36:30
Dejan
There. I give you that. But I think if you look at it from a first-person view of a guy by himself in the voting booth, if... you know, with the amount of propaganda being thrown out, if the sort of left manages to make the argument of you're going to able to afford a house, every public service going to be better funded, NHS waiting lists cut down, the sort of minimum wage salary is going to go up, you're guy in voting booth, you're not thinking, oh, let me just zoom out and look at the macroeconomics. You're thinking, my salary is going to go up and I'm going to have a house and my children are going to go to a better funded school.
00:37:07
Dejan
Vote.
00:37:07
debatablediscussions
But no, but the issue that is this, is that other parties, parties on the right wing, also say the exact same things. And they also offer arguments for it.
00:37:17
debatablediscussions
So I don't think that works. I think actually in the boating booth, people vote safe. They don't vote risky. Voting behaviour shows that. In the safety of the vote, no, I think if you look at trends of, and I think it's fairly objectively known, that in the safety of the boating booth,
00:37:24
Dejan
I disagree.
00:37:33
debatablediscussions
people vote for who they feel comfortable for they don't vote risky that i think that actually is almost fact shown and they feel comfortable usually for the larger bigger parties and that has been that has been documented that in the safety of the voting booth you're not going to vote for a radical person who you're a bit i don't know you vote for the comfort and it is wrong perhaps but you vote for the security of a large party that and i
00:37:37
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:38:00
Dejan
But that's why I think Labour will win.
00:38:02
debatablediscussions
But that's why I'm saying I think similarly, but I think the argument works both ways, doesn't it? Because you can say using the same logic that the Tories could win and Labour has against them being the party that's been government, that's not done much to the economy, that's gone back on all their pledges.
00:38:17
debatablediscussions
A Labour pledge on wealth inequality, as you said, means nothing. Because they've had all these issues about benefits, the two-child benefits, winter fuel allowances. They've had all this sort of hoo-ha about that.
00:38:31
debatablediscussions
I don't really know what the Labour Party stands for in that area at all. I think Zach Polanski will never win an election based on economics because that interview, the rest is politics, presents him as having a sort of just like an economic illiteracy that's fairly astounding for someone wants to be prime minister.
00:38:46
Dejan
Thank you.
00:38:49
debatablediscussions
They can't win based on economics because the Labour Party have performed awfully. Zak knows nothing. At least the Tories who, you know, let's be real, they didn't leave the economy in the best state at all. But they are known to be a party whose policies promote more fiscal responsibility than that of the radical left.
00:39:20
debatablediscussions
I think immigration may not be the number one issue, but I think it's always been an undercurrent.
00:39:21
Dejan
I...
00:39:26
debatablediscussions
Reform able to win voters.
00:39:27
debatablediscussions
Going back to the wealth inequality thing, I just think it's an awful argument. And I know what you're saying. And I know why you're trying to say that perhaps immigration isn't the best argument.
00:39:38
Dejan
it will matter though. I think, again, we've got this sort of third-person observant perspective. And I think we're managing, because of that, and because we're trying to be objective and look at the facts, We are not looking at the first person perspective of people who have heavily been hit by the cost of living crisis, by the energy crisis.
00:39:49
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:40:01
debatablediscussions
Yeah,
00:40:03
Dejan
And for people who simply just, number one, they can't afford to buy a house. They send their children to public schools, which at the moment are super underfunded. They can't get an appointment with a GP because the NHS has a waiting list that is longer than the Nile.
00:40:20
Dejan
for them, if a politician, again, in a very populist way, promises them the moon, and the moon is, I'm going to make sure you can buy a house, I'm going to make sure that your children are going to to well-funded schools, and that you're going to see a doctor, and that...
00:40:34
debatablediscussions
Thank you.
00:40:37
Dejan
the minimum wage is going grow so that you can actually afford to live and you can afford to go on holiday twice a year maybe. If someone makes the argument consistently over the next two and a half years, lot of people are going to be swindled by they're going to vote for it.
00:40:51
debatablediscussions
But Diane, people already are. people are by immigration.
00:40:55
debatablediscussions
Immigration has done all those things which you said, and people have already been swindled by it.
00:41:00
debatablediscussions
Reform will be able to capitalise of immigration. If not, they'll find a new In them, they're able to capture those voters which you described. As they're capturing those voters, they will win electoral support as they've done. They're showing that.
00:41:14
debatablediscussions
And I think they'll probably align with the Tories, they'll form a coalition, and they'll get in government that way. I think they're more popular than Zach Plansky and the Greens.
00:41:26
debatablediscussions
Reform, with their message of immigration, have won voters on the left, the right, the centre. With Zach Polanski, it's only winning voters that he already had, really, on the left wing.
00:41:26
Dejan
but,
00:41:31
Dejan
well, yeah, but,
00:41:35
Dejan
Let's look at the reform voter. Yeah, let's look at the reform voter.
00:41:37
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:41:38
Dejan
So that is what they care about. They care about those issues. They care about being able to afford a house.
00:41:41
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:41:42
Dejan
They care about their children going to well-funded schools and they care about seeing a doctor. Yeah, let's just assume these are the three things.
00:41:47
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:41:48
Dejan
And they care about having enough money so they can live. Yeah, those the four reasons that that's what they look at. That's what they care about. I think what happens to those...
00:42:00
Dejan
And it's not an if, it's a when. When they get disillusioned with reform and actually figured out that reform doesn't actually do anything to help them, where are they going to go? Because they're still going to exist and they're still going to exist in this large number of people. I think...
00:42:13
Dejan
is obvious that the moment that the sort of split happens and it can be a year two three four maybe they get into government and it's after sort of term in government there's going to be a large number of people disillusioned with reform and they're going to realize well they promise they're going to this and they promise i'm going to be able to see a doctor i still can't the school my children go to is still underfunded still don't have a house
00:42:22
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:42:37
Dejan
Who am I going to turn to? I'm going to turn to another messiah who's going to come and save me. But this time on the left. I think it's the same vote. I just think going split.
00:42:44
debatablediscussions
But Diane, I agree, but I think the situation you're describing is five years away. I don't think it's anywhere.
00:42:50
Dejan
Yeah, maybe. Maybe.
00:42:52
debatablediscussions
That's the issue of it. The issue you're describing has nothing to do with the next general election, because I think the people will be, and I think people will be disillusioned with reform, but I think that's five, six years down the road after reform or the Tories are likely in office together.
00:43:02
Dejan
Okay.
00:43:06
debatablediscussions
I think if you look at the reform polling, they're winning, like, they're almost 10% higher in the polls than Labour, which is huge. And I mean, we describe the Greens as a big threat, but the Greens are still behind the Conservatives in the polls, in many of them, as a party polling, not as a leader.
00:43:23
Dejan
Yeah, I think again, you know, is it two years?
00:43:24
debatablediscussions
So I think...
00:43:27
Dejan
Is it six years? don't know, but I think it's going to happen.
00:43:30
debatablediscussions
I think it will happen. I think it will happen after a general election, definitely. I think these economic issues, the narrative of reform, can be tied to immigration in a manner which they'll do.
00:43:35
Dejan
Okay.
00:43:42
debatablediscussions
Farage is popular. He's a popular leader. He's already shown that. He's captured support. He'll retain that support, in my eyes, for 2029. But he'll also form a coalition with the Tories so that the vote isn't a split.
00:43:55
debatablediscussions
And I think with that united vote... they'll do well. I think Labour will do decently well, but they'll lose lot of seats.
00:44:05
debatablediscussions
I think Green will pick up a few. I think Lib Dems will lose about
Conclusion and Reflections
00:44:11
Dejan
Yeah, I think almost to me, it seems that paradoxically the best way for a form to dismantle itself and to just, you know, lose their spoils for them to win an election.
00:44:12
debatablediscussions
quite few of their seats.
00:44:13
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:44:28
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I agree. I think reform will be the biggest awakening of what they like.
00:44:34
Dejan
moment that happens.
00:44:36
debatablediscussions
But then I think all this disillusionment is far down the road. I think it's five, six years away, potentially. With that, we should probably end this episode.
00:44:44
Dejan
Yeah.
00:44:46
debatablediscussions
It's been a very lively debate and we hope you've enjoyed this and we hope you enjoy it over this festive season. So have a good Christmas and thank you for listening to us for 2025. think we actually had some great listening figures we had.
00:45:01
debatablediscussions
Something with huge amount of growth from 2024.
00:45:01
Dejan
Yeah.
00:45:05
debatablediscussions
So thank you everyone for listening.
00:45:07
Dejan
Yes, thank you for listening. And as always, if you enjoyed this episode, do go and look back on our episodes from the past. And we wish you a happy holiday with your loved ones. And we will see you back in 2026. See you there.
00:45:23
debatablediscussions
We'll see you then. And do also follow us. Christmas presents for us. See you then.