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S4 E33: Will Starmer resign as PM and who would replace him?
53 Plays2 months ago
Today John and Dejan are discussing whether Keir Starmer will resign, and if so who would replace him. Go like, subscribe and comment. Go check us out on social media as well.
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Transcript
Introduction to the Episode
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast.
Epstein-Mandelson-Starmer Scandal Overview
00:00:04
Speaker
Today we're talking about a very current and present issue in contemporary politics, especially UK politics, which of course is the whole Epstein-Mandelson-Starmer scandal.
Epstein Document Release and Implications
00:00:17
Speaker
So for those of you who have been living under a rock, really, Jeffrey Epstein, former American financier,
00:00:27
Speaker
has this list and this island where a lot of very weird and troubling events have happened with regard to sort of prostitution of minors and sexual abuses and the list goes on.
00:00:41
Speaker
And three million documents, John, have been released recently? Yes, they are. So on the January 31st, 30th, three million documents regarding things everything from jeffrey Epstein's personal text messages, emails, letters, um photos, many photos has been seen, even things like the newspapers he had at his home. Three million pages of all these documents have been released. And I think even still now media outlets are combing through this data effectively. because there's been so much which has been revealed. You described there Peter Mandelson. His relationship with Epstein has now been fully exposed, one which is fairly horrifying.
Starmer's Leadership and Resignation Debate
00:01:29
Speaker
Similarly, it's raised questions about Starmer and whether he will resign. But before we get into that, Diane, let's just think about Starmer in general. Before we discuss when will he resign, do you think he needs to resign?
00:01:44
Speaker
Well... It's a very difficult question. I think a lot of people are calling for it, but honestly, tend to disagree with them. um You know, he wasn't there, right? Mandelson was there.
00:01:59
Speaker
And yes, that's problematic because they had connections one with another. However... i I don't think that he should be punished for something Mandelson did. We don't know if Keir Stammer actually fully knew what was going on whether Mandelson was there. So, you know, I think it's a bad situation. a bad look for the Labour Party more than it is for Keir Stammer.
00:02:20
Speaker
and And if I were him, I wouldn't resign. What do you think, John? To be honest, I think Starmer's resignation will come about. Keir Starmer's premiership has been fairly disastrous since the start, since when he got into office in July 2024. We covered it. It started awfully with the Lord Waheed Ali donation scandal.
00:02:42
Speaker
Yeah. Then it was other events, his constant U-turns, whether it was around benefits, are his other economic policies attracted so much criticism, things such as inheritance tax on farmers, there's still protests going on about these.
00:02:59
Speaker
um I just feel that Starmer's economic policies have lacked impact. Similarly, whilst he's sort of been perhaps best from the foreign policy side, people care less about foreign policy.
00:03:11
Speaker
So Starmer's premiership has been pretty much disastrous. He's achieved little.
Mandelson's Influence and Scandal Connections
00:03:16
Speaker
And I think this scandal with Mandelson is fairly symbolic of just how shambolic his time in office has been so far. I don't know why Mandelson perhaps wasn't properly vetted.
00:03:30
Speaker
um i think if Mandelson should have surely realised the extent of his relationship with Epstein and how much of it was documented. So I do think that... So I'm surprised that Mandelson didn't reveal more about his relationship with Epstein. And I imagine that um simply Starmer didn't perhaps vet him enough um And I think it was always a weird appointment. Mandelson's been this sort of dark prince, ah a slippery operator of British politics um since serving onto Gordon Brown and even before when he reconstructed and helped to rebuild the Labour Party.
00:04:09
Speaker
But more more to that day, and what do you think of this character of Peter Mandelson? He's someone that's really come to the forefront in the last few days um and perhaps one of the most influential backroom operators of British politics.
00:04:22
Speaker
Yeah, I think, don't know, I'd first like to disagree with oh yeah with you saying that, you know, Peter Mandelson would have known. I mean, I think if you look, I think most people who went to Ireland never thought that there's ever going to be a moment where they're going to be exposed.
00:04:39
Speaker
You know, no one whistleblowed, no one said anything. She's turning back and emailing or messaging Jeffrey and, you know, playing playing nice with him. So it just seems weird to me. I think...
00:04:54
Speaker
The vast majority of people on the island just thought they had this impression that it's never going to be found out.
Starmer's Political Challenges
00:05:01
Speaker
And if it was going to be found out about Epstein, it's not going to be found out about them. I'm not really sure how much they knew of the whole documentation that Epstein had on them. The whole pictures and sort of cameras in the bathrooms and bedrooms and everywhere, really. There were cameras everywhere on the island, apparently. So I find it hard to believe. But...
00:05:22
Speaker
You know as you said, Mandelson is this dark prince and now he's is definitely a dark prince. Yeah, but I mean, I even think though for Mandelson that he would have known because when he was appointed to be US ambassador in 2024,
00:05:36
Speaker
it the cat was out of the bag in the sense that it was known that he was a friend of Jeffrey Epstein. It was known that there'd be further legal criminal proceedings regarding it. So I think i do think it was it was known then. The whistles were blown in that sense about Epstein. It was known that Mandelson was a friend of him. So i think I do think it should have been clearer. Yeah.
00:06:01
Speaker
But the big question about Starmer resignation, I'm slightly keen on it. I said I felt like he's had a fairly disastrous time in office. But the key question which remains is when?
00:06:12
Speaker
When will he resign? So he survived the last few days, which is fairly admirable for Sakea because it's been a week in British politics that's that that one would struggle to get through. So when do you think he will resign, Dayan?
00:06:28
Speaker
Yeah, I think before we get on to that, yes you know maybe he was made US ambassador for the reason that he was friends with Epstein. Maybe he, you know, and with all, I'm saying this with all knowledge that I might have some very nasty TikTok comments after this, but maybe that's where he met Trump for the first time and, you know, the f befriended him. So it could be a strategic appointment from Sakhir, putting Magnusson, who has had some social... interactions with Trump in the past. I mean, more than definitely. Both were friends with Epstein. Trump says he didn't go to the island. But even then, both of friends were friends with Epstein and maybe met through that connection initiative. So now to the big question of is there going to be a resignation and if so, when?
00:07:16
Speaker
I wouldn't resign. I just don't see why he would resign. There's a bit of pressure, but realistically, there is no one there ready to take over. Angela Rayner is not ready. She's been out of the spotlight for a couple of months, had that big problem with the tax revenue and the sort of hold that issue.
00:07:36
Speaker
West Streeting. Also, he's a bit of a friend of Peter Mandelson as well. And he's a young, doesn't have that sort of appeal yet. I think if Andy Burnham was an MP or if he was allowed to run as an MP, I think Sakia would have had a massive problem.
00:07:53
Speaker
A very, very big problem. in that case, I think, you know, he should have resigned and allowed Andy Burnham to take over and try and get the Labour Party back on track. But at the moment, I mean, i think there's a risk of going from bad to worse. Everyone says get rid of Starmer, but who's going to take over? And why do we think it's going to be any better? Yeah, I mean, I think there are a few things there.
00:08:17
Speaker
i mean, first, you mentioned Starmer wouldn't want to resign, and I think that's obvious. But the big threat to him is if the Labour MPs want him to
Potential Labour Leadership Candidates
00:08:25
Speaker
resign. So to remind our listeners, for there to be a Labour leadership election or challenge contest, 20% of the Labour MPs need to formally oppose a replacement candidate. So at the moment, with 405 Labour MPs, that would need 81 Labour MPs to back someone else's leader.
00:08:47
Speaker
And this would be very exceptional in the sense that no Labour leader in the past has ever been dethroned, one could say. um Some leaders have survived challenges, but no one's ever been replaced as leader of the Labour Party um during a time in office.
00:09:06
Speaker
So I think it would be very interesting Starmer was. You mentioned the two big names there, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting. I think Angela's got to sort sort out her tax issues firstly, but then she could be popular. She's likely popular with the Labour membership, who would then vote on who the Labour leader would become. And I think the Labour MPs are slightly more left-wing than the rest of the country is, or the country generally is. So I think that could be popular.
00:09:37
Speaker
Similarly, Wes Streeting could have support. But you mentioned the key thing there, Diane. And that is ah Wes Streeting's friendship with Peter Mandelson. He's recently published some text messages, which we'll go into in a second.
00:09:50
Speaker
But these text messages really revealed the extent of their relationship. even quite bold statements Wes made, which would annoy Sakhir. So Wes said, and this is quote unquote, that there was no economic growth plan for this current Labour government.
00:10:08
Speaker
So he's been quite brutal about Sakhir. sure Kira isn't happy. But I think those two would be the candidates to replace him. um But they've both got sort of respective things to figure out.
00:10:20
Speaker
When is the interesting question? We've obviously got the Gorton and Denton by-election, and which will grow some sort of animosity towards IKEA because Labour are likely to lose it.
00:10:31
Speaker
But I think the real blow to IKEA will come on the 7th of May. which is when we've got the elections the local elections in England and Labour will expectedly not perform very well in these and I think if perhaps one of those two names we mentioned has gathered enough momentum by those May elections they could launch a successful challenge to Sikia but what what do you think Diane do you think Sikia's got to go more generally and may be a long time away but do you think anyone will be ready by then
00:11:09
Speaker
Well, i i I think I'm going sort of have a bit of an unpopular opinion, but I didn't think so. I mean, you know, has he been fantastic? No. But at the same time, as I've said, it could be a lot worse.
00:11:24
Speaker
You know, Sakhir going at a time like this... does open the floodgates for a couple of things number one a weaker candidate yeah i i wouldn't like west streeting or angela rayner i i prefer care to both of them for very different reasons but angela rayner i don't think has the sort of but experience really at you know being the deputy prime minister isn't a sort of fledged out cabinet role as is sort of being foreign secretary or home secretary so that i think andrew in it just needs a bit more experience for me but i'm sure some people don't have a problem with that issue but also west treating i just personality from what i've seen of him i'm i'm not a big fan also the peter mandelster situation for him is particularly bad so
00:12:18
Speaker
I would I think if I was a Labour MP, I would like Keir to stick it out as much as he can. Try and go on for maybe another year. And then when the time is right, have a contest and resign when there is a proper candidate ready to take over. One that maybe will get a bit of the anti-Keir vote. But it's not the moment. There is no election coming.
00:12:42
Speaker
There are bigger fish to fry, frankly, with the whole Greenland situation unveiling and the sort of, you know, we've just seen Ukraine is going to have a referendum on the peace deal. So it's there but there's there's a lot of bigger issues at play.
00:12:57
Speaker
And I just don't think it's the right time for the Labour Party. I mean, having a leadership challenge now also for the local elections, it just damages everything. It just shows the party isn't united and people don't really like that, especially when you've got reform and.
00:13:13
Speaker
you know, the greens and even, not the toys, but you know, other people banging on your doorstep ready to take your seats away from you. Yeah, I mean, I think I agree with you. I don't think Angela Rayner has the skill, has the ability to run England effectively. I think she would probably be an awful prime minister.
00:13:32
Speaker
But perhaps that isn't the point, because it's what the Labour Party members, it's what the MPs, what the party members, any the sort of general party members, what they think. And I think this is a group of quite left-wing individuals who, bizarrely for you and me, Dayan, are actually quite keen on people like Angela Rayner, even more so than West Streeting or someone like Shabana Mahmood who find themselves on the more right-wing side of the Labour Party. The support really isn't there. It's bizarrely with people like Rayner, in my opinion.
00:14:11
Speaker
um But I think also you'd slightly challenge what you said. i think perhaps the British public and the Labour Party are finding themselves to be almost at a low at their worst point. Labour's currently doing awfully in the polls. They're sort polling around 18, 19% popularity, which, along with Sir Keir Starmer's personal polling ratings, is some of the worst the Labour Party um has ever seen on record.
00:14:39
Speaker
um Similarly, i think the Labour MPs have just, and the party members, have just taken every single blow security. quite personally. And I do think they've accumulated.
00:14:54
Speaker
um Yes, it's unstable. Yes, it's not the best for this cor constantly changing geopolitical world in which we live in. But I think the Labour Party members, their anger and their frustration will grow.
00:15:10
Speaker
And I think, um unfortunately, that could lead to someone like Angela Rayner being Prime Minister, seeming that she is quite popular in that area.
Wes Streeting's NHS Controversy and Policies
00:15:20
Speaker
i mean, yeah I do prefer Angela Rayner to West Streeting, to be honest. Why?
00:15:28
Speaker
i think I think just a sort of a very shallow reason, really. I mean, I think West Streeting is some of his comments... towards NHS workers who are genuinely very underpaid, let's be let's be very honest here, about how they're sort of crybabies. I mean, you know, when when you're going to be paid as much as a Starbucks barista and working 48 hours in a row with people ah quite literally vomiting blood on you, then I don't think it can really be called a crybaby. I think comments like that and also his general attitude it' It's just not something that resonated with me. it's not It's not a best reason, I'll be very honest. But I think sometimes in politics, it's it's those kind of reasons that actually make the biggest difference.
00:16:15
Speaker
I think very few people actually take the sort of everything and calculate the sort of positions and policies that people would implement. And sometimes it's just based on sort of vibes. And I think I prefer the vibes Angela Rayner gives compared to compared to him to be honest i would disagree i i'd find it quite difficult to find someone who's got a better persona a worse persona than angela rayner i think her persona angela reyner's persona is fairly awful um i i think she's continually demonstrated as a
00:16:50
Speaker
cabinet minister that she really lacks any sort of almost competence to effectively run a country. um i mean, she couldn't even sort of take heed of advice properly regarding her taxation, um which which was not even just her own error. That was actually, I think, it was almost her not taking advice, legal advice.
00:17:11
Speaker
And perhaps Wes has been rude to members of the NHS. Um, and perhaps these claims do have a basis. Um, but then I think he's admittedly probably had a hard, had sort of a hard job amidst the unions, but I don't think he's been totally ineffective with the NHS, Wes. I think he's actually been pretty, you know, pretty all Um, I think, uh, waiting times in hospitals are down, um, He's tried to sort of mount the insurmountable challenge of the NHS.
00:17:43
Speaker
Only a few days ago, right amidst ah the Peter Mandelson news, he launched a very impressive NHS cancer plan. It's a leading cancer plan for the world.
00:17:55
Speaker
And i think he wanted to give over two billion of funding to combat cancer. And had the Mandelson stuff not been in the news, he's This would have most definitely been at the forefront. So I do have reservations towards him as well. I don't think he really is prime ministerial.
00:18:11
Speaker
um He's not no by no means at all my ideal candidate to run the party like he's yours, they are. But for me, Rayner, I just I. really just don't think shit big a good pm i think west're showed far more sort of ability for more skill um that rain has i mean it's yeah i i and i think yeah and i i think we're we're this has a professionalism to him which also rainer lacked was it dancing in dj booths and ibiza we saw her i mean it's just things like that which um which shocked i mean it's a changing world you know i think we've we've not necessarily have grown but we've left behind the times when politicians were these sort of
00:18:57
Speaker
very reserved, very sort of cold ice like figures. if you know, Angela Merkel or yeah those kinds of of of sort of public personas where they were very professional, I think now we've reached much a very different time. You know, we've got the TikTok generation, the TikTok prime ministers.
00:19:21
Speaker
And you you've got to be able to connect with the young generation. i think she has been she has been able to do that. So i'm I'm a bit less sort of hung up on on that, but I fully
Other Potential Labour Leaders
00:19:33
Speaker
understand. I think what we'd both like to see really is a serious contender for the challenge. So, yeah you know, someone like Andy Burnham, really, for me,
00:19:44
Speaker
And honestly, maybe someone like David Lamme. Perhaps, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, David Lamme, as Zach Goldsmith mentioned before, one of the champions on on environment. So, yeah, like David Lamme, I think, would would be a and closer to what i'd I'd like to see. Yeah. um I mean...
00:20:03
Speaker
i Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. Perhaps David Lammy doesn't really, really stand out to me as someone who's shouting, I could be prime minister. But I think with Andy Burnham, there's a bit of a Burnham bubble, which i' I'd almost want to slightly burst.
00:20:19
Speaker
He's slightly bigged up due to social media, things like he's been called the King of the North, which is slightly genuine. I mean, he's very popular in the north of England. However, some view him as being not particularly effective as mayor of Manchester, particularly.
00:20:36
Speaker
Some viewers are actually being too effective in that role. Similarly, ah he's tried to be delay he's tried to become Lady Leader twice before and failed, which is fairly revealing to me.
00:20:50
Speaker
The circumstances are different, but it's revealing to me that he's never been a standout candidate throughout his political career, Andy Burnham. Perhaps he's becoming more so now. But I wonder if that's a sort of anti-care effect, which is rubbing off on Burnham.
00:21:06
Speaker
um yeah Well, I don't know. I think, you know, from what I've seen, it's It's a bit of both. I think he can... Because he's mayor of Manchester, I think he's got this much easier time connecting with people that don't necessarily live in the London world. Yeah, that is important, yeah. And he's a bit more personable to them and understands him a bit better.
00:21:30
Speaker
also think, you know, Manchester... People say he's not being effective, but, I mean, he's one of the most... The more effective mayors. suppose, yeah. Really. I mean...
00:21:41
Speaker
There's a lot of people who were mayors and who did a much, much worse job than him. So I think overall, don't want to name any names, but i think overall he's he's been all right, both in his professional career, but also he's got the right sort of balance between knowing how to run a big city like Manchester, ah but also being to being down to earth and and personable to people from all different backgrounds, not just the ones that live live in London or in sort of very big urban urbanbo areas. Yeah, I mean, perhaps. And there's ah someone, a name which I would prefer to be leader of the Labour Party, but there's not really a chance. It's Shabana Mahmood, someone also not from London. She's from Birmingham.
00:22:28
Speaker
And I think the Labour Party has been perceived amongst its members to have been far too London-centric. And in fact, all of pretty much UK politics for a while, for about the last decade, or over the last decade, has perceived to be very London-centric.
Conclusion on Labour's Leadership Crisis
00:22:48
Speaker
It's all about someone from the South East, someone who sort of appears to be someone from the South East. Whereas someone like Burnham or Shabana Mahmood, they're not that, which is popular. um Yeah, which is popular. Burnham, very, very different. politically to shabana ma mood within the Labour Party, him being far more left wing.
00:23:09
Speaker
but i yeah But I think the Burnham spudle the burn and bubble is burst. Starmer was never going to allow him to be an MP because that's just allowing someone to sort of almost take his action. In Keir's defence, he would have been an idiot to allow Burnham to run in that by-election.
00:23:28
Speaker
Why would he have done it? So it made sense that he didn't do it. um But even with so Burnham was a distant second in the 2015 Labour leadership contest ah contest to Jeremy Corbyn.
00:23:43
Speaker
So he's not the most popular. He's not got this career of being extremely popular extremely admired within Labour Party itself. but We also do have to remember, though, I think, that Corbyn did have this sort of almost rock star effect with the Labour Party. yes Yeah, he did. he did But but it it just shows that Burnham didn't, though, in a Burnham didn't have that yeah effect. um i mean, yeah.
00:24:10
Speaker
Yeah, Burnham didn't have that effect. and But to conclude the episode with that, we've discussed the recent Epstein files, the downfall of Peter Mandelson, which has been dominating the headlines, but also the pertinent question which as everyone has been asking. Me and Dan have been asking it to each other.
00:24:28
Speaker
Will Starmer resign? And if he will, when will
Podcast Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:24:32
Speaker
he? So we hope you've enjoyed the episode.
00:24:36
Speaker
thank you've enjoyed Thank you. Leave us a comment, review if you enjoyed or didn't enjoy the episode. and Also, if you have any ideas what you'd like to see next, do let us know on any of our social media platforms. And we wish you a very good week. um Hopefully, wherever you are, gets bit warmer, a bit.
00:24:57
Speaker
drier and overall a bit nicer that's a good point actually it's raining in the uk but if you are listening from abroad do you comment where you're from we've we've had some quite unique countries think over 60 um even i think six continents down haven't we so do comment where you're listening from uh we've got we've got a loyal uk american romanian audience but aside from that we're not too sure yeah
00:25:25
Speaker
Thank you and see you next week. Bye.