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S4 E39: Viktor Orban and Hungary’s new PM
38 Plays16 days ago
Today John and Dejan are discussing the recent Hungarian elections which saw Peter Magyar’s supermajority toppling the government of Viktor Orban. Please like, subscribe, comment and share.
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Transcript
Hungarian Election Overview
00:00:00
Dejan
Hello welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today we've got very special episode where we will be discussing the recent Hungarian election, Viktor Orban's defeat, what that means both for Hungary but also widely for Europe.
00:00:16
Dejan
And first of all, John, could you first say what happened? As we've said before, Orban has lost, but who won? Who is Peter Magyar? What do we know about him?
00:00:27
debatablediscussions
So yes, as you're describing there, Diane, on the 12th of April, 2026, obviously this year, Orban lost the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election to the Tisa party led by Peter Magyar.
00:00:41
debatablediscussions
Apologies for any slightly butchered pronunciation. So Orban has been leading Hungary as its prime minister since 2010. He, between 2010 and 2026, had won three elections, winning what they call super majorities. So sort of a big win, a big victory.
00:01:02
debatablediscussions
These elections have got their own sort of controversy attached. Some accuse him of ballot rigging, election rigging as well. But I mean... But prior to the period he had won, I mean to be frank, three national elections leading the Fidesz party, Christian far-right nationalist, sort of soft Eurosceptic party.
00:01:25
debatablediscussions
However, Orbán came to be, especially in the UK, heavily criticised. We rightly viewed him as being very sort of leading a very illiberal democracy.
00:01:37
debatablediscussions
having quite autocratic, extreme far-right and almost Christian nationalist tendencies.
Peter Magyar's Victory and EU Relations
00:01:43
debatablediscussions
However, as I said, on the 12th of April, Peter Magyar, another right-wing Hungarian politician, however not Eurosceptic,
00:01:53
debatablediscussions
unlike Orban interestingly Orban was sort of characterised by being a big Eurosceptic against European funding for Ukraine Magyar however is a sort of victory for Ukraine because he's far more cooperative towards working with the EU which is very important in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war But he's got an interesting story, as I'm sure you'll touch on, Diane. He was a member of Orban's Fidesz party.
00:02:20
debatablediscussions
However, he resigned in 2024 over a sort of corruption scandal. However, it's interesting that they both sort of
00:02:25
Dejan
Yeah.
00:02:28
debatablediscussions
he sort of came to influence through this Fidesz party of Viktor Orban, which was frankly quite successful. Orban, prior to becoming Prime Minister in 2010, led Hungary between 1998 and 2002. But it's really over these last few years, since 2010, that Orban's sort of almost characteristic style has emerged. This style which made him so popular with...
00:02:56
debatablediscussions
JD Vance and Trump. Just a few days before the Hungarian election, Vance was over in Budapest, an event which apparently most Hungarians, and I can sort of understand this, had basically no interest in at all.
00:03:09
debatablediscussions
However, Vance seemed quite like sort of Orban's far right wing, very sort of socially Christian policies, one could say.
00:03:15
Dejan
Yeah.
00:03:20
debatablediscussions
Things like restricting LGBTQ rights, banning same-sex adoption, and other Christian nationalist policies.
Impact on European Politics and Russia-Ukraine War
00:03:29
debatablediscussions
So, Diane, what do you think of Orban's recent loss defeat? It's fairly monumental for Europe.
00:03:36
debatablediscussions
in terms of this sort of rise of the far right one could say but also it's got as I mentioned very large implications on the Russia-Ukraine war
00:03:45
Dejan
Yeah, I think, just to make it clear, I think Peter Magyar is more pro-Ukraine.
00:03:51
debatablediscussions
yeah yeah definitely yeah okay
00:03:53
Dejan
However, he's not fully pro-Ukraine. So he's pro-Ukraine in the sense of... you know, not blocking EU referendums and EU votes in the parliament that Orban has done with veto again and again and again.
00:04:05
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:04:07
Dejan
But he is against fast-tracking the application to join the EU for Ukraine.
00:04:15
debatablediscussions
Oh, wow.
00:04:15
Dejan
He's against that.
00:04:15
debatablediscussions
See ya.
00:04:17
Dejan
I'm not sure his stance on specific funding, but he does seem to be more friendly. But the main thing actually about Peter Mario that you've mentioned is that he used to be in Orban's party as well as his ex-wife.
00:04:31
Dejan
I think that actually does say a lot about sort of where he stands. Just like Orban, he is quite big on national identity. And we were talking about this earlier, why that may be, you know, there is no sort of, you know, again, politics does seem to be quite right wing and quite conservative in a way, socially especially.
00:04:40
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:04:50
Dejan
I think that does have to do something with the fact that they are the only nation in Europe that isn't sort of, you know, near others. So, for example, you know, they're not Slavs, they're not Latins, they're not Germanics.
00:05:05
Dejan
And therefore, they sort of find themselves to be quite alone. And I think for that reason, because they're so unique and the language is so unique and everything, you know, the sort of ethnic population makeup is so unique.
00:05:16
Dejan
There is this of large current to preserve it. And it is interesting to see how, you know, it goes sort of from a conservative far-right party to a conservative, you know, right-wing party.
00:05:30
Dejan
Yeah, I don't think Peter Maggio would be amazing. I don't. But I think he would be much better than Orban. For a while, at least. You know, I mean, Orban...
00:05:41
Dejan
as we've discussed previously, actually, he used to be this very liberal, progressive guy and decided that doesn't work with the voters so that he completely changes sort of opinions. And the main reasons he came on the fire for was of corruption scandals, you know, building castles for his dad and, you know, stuff like that. And, you know, Peter Maga comes on an anti-corruption mandate and hopefully he will deliver.
00:06:06
Dejan
But I think it will be still very, very difficult for him to do so because at the moment, a lot of the sort of public institution are jam-packed with Fidesz party members.
00:06:17
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I agree you there. I think a limitation of Magyar's premiership in Hungary could be this illiberal democracy which Orbán's constructed.
Challenges Ahead for Magyar
00:06:43
Dejan
Yeah.
00:06:45
debatablediscussions
Similarly there's a huge resources between, huge overlap between the state's resources and Fidesz, his own party's resources.
00:06:53
debatablediscussions
Similarly the media, this is one of the first things they mentioned on the BBC when I discovered about this event, but the media is owned effectively by oligarchs who are totally aligned with Orban. So it's going to be difficult for Magyar to work out his situation the media, seeming that they're so aligned to the far-right message of Orban and this almost kleptocratic state Orban has constructed which benefits these media oligarchs. So I think there will be difficulties for him there.
00:07:24
debatablediscussions
I also find it quite interesting what you said there about the Russia-Ukraine war because I didn't know that about him and mean it is unfortunate because Hungary is withdrawing what would be extremely useful funding for Ukraine in their fight against Russia.
00:07:37
Dejan
Yeah.
00:07:41
debatablediscussions
Orban restricting this I think really did show how he was a sort of ally in many ways of Putin simply because He wasn't willing to help Ukraine in that sense. He was deliberately blocking them.
00:07:55
debatablediscussions
Something which, even which if Magyar even stops, will help Ukraine, definitely.
00:07:59
Dejan
Which I think, yeah, exactly.
00:08:01
debatablediscussions
So, I mean, yeah.
00:08:02
Dejan
I think you're perfectly right what's going to happen.
00:08:04
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:08:06
Dejan
MAGA isn't going to do miracles for Ukraine, but he's going to stop the hindrance that Orbán has been doing.
00:08:10
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:08:10
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:12
debatablediscussions
Yeah, and I think that's really important. And yeah, and similarly, it is really important. Similarly, he's probably got a more sensible stance towards the EU for Hungary.
00:08:26
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:27
debatablediscussions
I mean by that is that Hungary is one of those countries in the which is a huge net recipient of EU funding. So countries like the UK or Germany are vastly net contributors of funding and then in return they receive far less back. However, Hungary is one of those states where they do receive tens of billions in EU funding every year.
00:08:49
debatablediscussions
And so, mean, if you are a Hungarian leader, you would think that it makes perhaps more sense to be on good terms the EU simply because you are a net recipient of EU funding.
00:09:02
debatablediscussions
In so many ways.
00:09:02
Dejan
Yeah, yeah, I think, you know, MAGA has pledged to unlock sort of a large proportion of funds that were freezed by the EU, which would be really transformative for Hungary.
00:09:10
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Right.
00:09:13
Dejan
I mean, you know, their standard of living due to their economy has fallen very, very, very, very steeply throughout the Orbán premiership, especially through this last one.
00:09:18
debatablediscussions
Right. Yeah.
00:09:25
Dejan
where they've actually plummeted a couple of places in the EU rankings.
00:09:25
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:09:28
Dejan
And their economy, which used to be very average and fairly strong, has actually not been able to keep up. And that is perhaps a result of this EU funding being blocked. You know, Orbán's ties with Russia and the irrational oil industry.
00:09:45
Dejan
And Peter Maggia has pledged to sort undo that. But again, when it comes to the Ukraine, I think he's just going stop the hindrance.
00:09:50
debatablediscussions
Thank
00:09:52
Dejan
But he is heavily against the fast-tracked EU integration programs.
Hungary's Historical Context and Current Politics
00:09:59
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I mean, another sort of interesting link to talk about here is obviously Hungarian history, something that I've sort of studied recently as part of school, but it's got a fascinating history, Hungary.
00:10:13
debatablediscussions
From World War II, it was a member of the Eastern Bloc, had a famous protest, one could say, famous uprising in October, November 1956.
00:10:25
debatablediscussions
in which this figure called Imre Nagy occurred who almost was sort figurehead for Hungary his role as being a figurehead largely against communist dictatorship that made him establish such a positive legacy in Hungary that it even extended towards those 1989 revolutions across the Eastern Bloc where NAGY's legacy was a huge driving force in Hungary to get rid of communism.
00:10:54
debatablediscussions
They viewed NAGY's counter-revolution as inspiration to end communism transition towards democracy in Hungary.
00:10:54
Dejan
Yeah.
00:11:03
debatablediscussions
And they've had a very interesting history in that sense as a member of the Eastern Bloc,
00:11:03
Dejan
you
00:11:08
debatablediscussions
who were brutally suppressed politically and in a military sense by the Soviet Union and lacked any sort of sense of, one could say, of almost self-determination politically until 1989, where they transitioned towards a democratic system.
00:11:26
debatablediscussions
What do you think of this, Diane? What contribution has the politics of Eastern Europe made to Hungarian politics? Obviously now we see the far-right politics which has been endorsed by some of these states, notably Hungary, is very different to perhaps historically their political situation.
00:11:39
Dejan
Yeah.
00:11:43
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah, I think also this sort of anthropological analysis really important, looking at Hungary sort of from a context of, you history, but, you know, old history almost.
00:11:55
Dejan
So, you know, Hungary, as the name, Han, comes from the Han, the Han tribe.
00:11:56
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
00:12:03
Dejan
And, you know, they came sort of 400, 450 AD. That's when they settled and they came from Mongolia. And they say, you know, conquered everything, basically, and just, you know, destroyed everything that was there. But it is really important because of this lack of codependence.
00:12:25
Dejan
So they don't have the shared history that, for example, you know, Spain and Italy have of being under the Roman Empire.
00:12:29
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:32
Dejan
You know, France... Romania, there's Latin countries. You don't have this sort of ethnic Slavic thing, you know, Yugoslavia, you know, but also, you know, Yugoslavia, but also, you know, with countries towards the East, Ukraine, Russia, you know, speaking that sort Slavic language and being from the Slavic people, they don't have any of that. They're sort of this one lone ranger nation in the middle of Europe. So to me, it does make sense to have this... a bit more closed-minded perhaps, nationalistic, isolationist almost policy, you know?
00:13:05
debatablediscussions
yeah. Yeah, it's led to their sort isolation as a group has led to sort of more nationalism.
00:13:09
Dejan
Yeah.
00:13:13
debatablediscussions
I
00:13:14
Dejan
What I do find surprising is the economic policies because I don't necessarily feel like
00:13:18
debatablediscussions
Okay, yeah.
00:13:22
Dejan
you know, being that socially should automatically mean you're right-wing economically. You know, we've seen plenty of parties in the UK, you know, I would even say, reform, perhaps.
00:13:37
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:39
Dejan
And that's mainly due to the sort of corruption Orban has allowed to happen, has even propped up with naming friends for government agencies, nationalisations...
00:13:44
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:52
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I mean, it's sort of, I always think the best sort of analogy of, of the political spectrum is the horseshoe analogy.
00:14:01
Dejan
Yes.
00:14:01
debatablediscussions
And that is that idea of how the far right, when you get far right enough, almost becomes far left, sort of nationalisation, perhaps being characteristic of far right economic policies. And I mean, I'm not too familiar, of well-versed in the Hungarian economic situation. But I do imagine that, as you said there, from doing prior reading, it is clear that Orban really did sort construct a kleptocratic state.
00:14:27
debatablediscussions
As you mentioned there, it's people he knew, it's oligarchs who the economy depended on, who ran the media.
00:14:32
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:14:35
debatablediscussions
And so he constructed this illiberal democracy totally around himself. And going back to that earlier idea, I said that must make it hard for Magyar to become Prime Minister of Hungary because he's going into a system which almost favours Orbán in so many ways, one would think.
00:15:05
debatablediscussions
But it probably would be quite difficult, I can only imagine, just because of how ingrained it could just be in the Hungarian political and economic situation.
00:15:12
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:15
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:16
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yeah,
00:15:16
Dejan
I think actually he does have a sort of slight advantage, though, which that he used to be in Orban's close circle.
00:15:24
debatablediscussions
yeah.
00:15:25
Dejan
Yeah. He used to be there, and I think he knew these people. He was friendly with them. So... At least I think he knows what he's getting himself into quite well. And, you know, he's not this, you Jimmy Carter like figure who's the, you know, just entered mainstream high profile politics.
00:15:47
Dejan
He's going to get eaten alive by Washington. E.G.
00:15:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:15:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:15:50
Dejan
Budapest.
00:15:51
Dejan
He's, you know, he's quite a seasoned politician who used to be in Orban's close circle and he used to be at the EU Parliament for a while. So I think, I think from that respect, he's probably as, as prepared as one can be.
00:16:03
Dejan
But again, it will be difficult. It's, you know, Orban in the last 16 years, he's heavily, heavily, heavily centred the state on, you on his persona.
00:16:13
Dejan
And, you know, this, as you said, is an oligarch, you know, nationalisations, you know, of banking, of pension schemes, took over pension schemes, the energy sector, media as well as you've
Discussion on Term Limits and Democracy
00:16:30
Dejan
previously mentioned. So I think, you know, it's going to be a challenge, but we'll see how it goes. And I think...
00:16:38
Dejan
One thing that hopefully happens is a sort term limit thing because Hungary, although they operate in a presidential and primary stereo system, such as, for example, France,
00:16:52
Dejan
you know, the difference is that in Hungary, the prime minister has the power and the president really doesn't. Whilst in, you know, in France, again, it's the other way around and the president's got term limit.
00:17:02
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:17:02
Dejan
I don't think the prime minister does, but for Hungary's specific situation, I think the prime minister needs to have a term limit because it is the, the sort of number one, uh, position in the state, you Peter Maggia two days ago, I think sort of called out for, for the president to resign.
00:17:19
debatablediscussions
Yeah, and I think the idea of a term limit I find quite convincing. I think term limits for presidents and prime ministers can be a very good idea. When one thinks of examples like Hungary, it can prevent illiberal, slightly autocratic states from forming. these are liberal democracies which built around a cult of personality, built over decades, that could be stopped easily with a term limit.
00:17:42
Dejan
Yeah.
00:17:49
debatablediscussions
Obviously, leaders in the past have found ways around constitutions, but it would be a barrier to states like Orban's Hungary forming. mean, remember in the BBC reporting of it, they said that when you enter Hungary, there's effectively pro-Orban propaganda everywhere, which shows how he constructed this cult of personality, sort of another fascinating historical idea in many ways.
00:18:16
debatablediscussions
But a term limit would sort of hamper things like that. That's why I think... I mean, we're seeing it in the States. If it wasn't for that two-term limit, I mean, I'd be even more terrified than I am with Trump at the moment.
00:18:30
Dejan
yeah
00:18:36
debatablediscussions
So, yeah, so I do think it can be very good at term limits.
00:18:41
Dejan
yeah and you know hopefully hopefully he manages to deliver but you know i guess we'll see and we'll we'll we'll comment along the way some you know Some difficulties will happen, I'm sure, but hopefully he manages to get past them.
00:18:53
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:56
Dejan
But this is the episode.
00:18:56
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Fingers crossed.
00:18:58
Dejan
So if you enjoyed it, please, we covered this topic in a previous episode with Mark Leonard.
00:19:04
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:19:05
Dejan
So do give that a listen about sort of who Orban actually is and sort of his rise to power. But if you enjoyed it, do leave us comment, leave us a like, and let us know what you'd like to hear from us in the next couple of weeks. You know, philosophy, history, politics will take as it goes. But if there are any requests, we would really like to know them.
00:19:28
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yes, please. Do please engage the podcast in any way. Like, comment. We'd love to get to 100 subscribers on YouTube as well soon. any way you can, please do comment, like, share the podcast and say what you want. I think we're always trying to come up with new ideas, especially as we approach the summer.
00:19:46
debatablediscussions
So yeah, see then.
00:19:46
Dejan
Yeah. Thank you. See you next week.