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S4 E30: Jenrick's defection and a future Iranian revolution?
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Today John and Dejan are discussing Robert Jenrick's defection to Reform UK, and the recent protests in Iran. Go follow/subscribe to the podcast, like us, rate us 5 star and follow us on social media on all platforms.
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Transcript
Introduction to Topics
00:00:10
Dejan
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today we've got a very actual episode, very current episode. What will we be discussing, John?
Jenrick's Defection: A Political Shift
00:00:22
John Gartside
So yes, as you described there, Diane, today we will be discussing firstly, Robert Jenrick's shock defection over to Reform UK from the Conservative Party, a party which he'd been an MP for for over a decade. And then secondly, we'll discuss a bit of Iran and a bit of Trump as he seems to appear everywhere in politics always.
00:00:52
Dejan
Yeah.
Public Opinion and Speculation on Jenrick
00:01:02
John Gartside
mean, Robert Jenrick is the ultimate traitor, many are saying. because of this defection. Kemi Beidonock has said he lacks credibility. He's this man who's gone to the dark side.
00:01:14
John Gartside
But perhaps Jenrick's got a motive. So for all our listeners, Robert Jenrick on Thursday the 15th of January defected from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.
00:01:29
John Gartside
Jenrick had been a prominent figure in the Conservative Party for quite a time, especially since the Conservatives entered opposition. So he ran to become the leader of the opposition, the head of the Conservative Party, but lost out to Kemi. And since then, he's been Lord Chancellor and he's actually perhaps captured the UK electorate in a way that Kemi hasn't.
00:01:54
John Gartside
The reason for that being because of his videos on social media. I think he's got several which have got over a million or two million views. He's done things like stop fair evaders, stop delinquents, and it's really helped boost the Conservative Party's image in a time where they've perhaps been lacking.
Jenrick's Political Future
00:02:15
John Gartside
So Diane, what do you think about one of these, about the seismic and prominent events in British politics?
00:02:22
Dejan
Yeah, know, I think it's, I think Robert Jenrick has sort of thrown his career in the bin, in my opinion. I think reform will always be a sort of, reform's backbone will always be Nigel Farage.
00:02:38
Dejan
I don't see a world where Nigel Farage is not going to be the leader of reform until he retires, and that's not happen for a while.
00:02:38
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:02:44
Dejan
I think, I just don't understand this move. You know, I just don't understand it. It seems to me so rushed. So not, like, to me, it seems he hasn't actually sat down and considerated the impact on his career of this decision. And he's only looked at, this is what going to do. I'm going to defect.
00:03:05
Dejan
I'm going to probably, I don't think he'll keep his job as Shadok Chancellor, by the way. I think he'll get demoted. Maybe, well, yeah, I think, you know, maybe, well, demoted in this sort of, maybe foreign secretary or something like that.
00:03:19
Dejan
Hopefully they win the election. They don't know. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Let's say they will. He's never going to move out from foreign secretary. Never.
00:03:29
John Gartside
Yeah, I mean, maybe, I think, yeah.
00:03:32
Dejan
But if he's stuck with the Tories... After the next election, let's be honest, Kemi's out.
00:03:39
Dejan
It's going to be a shocking result. She's out. He was always there in the pipeline, ready to take over. Leader of the opposition, probably not, but, you know, the leader of the Tory party and then could have revigorated it, brought in a fresh perspective and maybe built for the next election.
00:03:39
John Gartside
Yeah.
Behind the Scenes of the Defection
00:03:57
Dejan
So in about eight years time, he could either be leader of the opposition or prime minister.
00:04:02
Dejan
I mean, it just feels such a rushed decision. Going and defecting for a job in government in two years, out of which you can't really progress much. Because honestly, Nigel Farage is not going appoint Robert Jenrick as prime minister.
00:04:18
Dejan
We need to be very honest about that.
00:04:21
John Gartside
Yeah, I mean, so I think there's two things here. There's the rushed aspect and his motivations. And perhaps Jenrick was rushed. I don't think he expected it to be leaked fully.
00:04:32
Dejan
It's
00:04:32
John Gartside
But the reports have been is that Jenrick definitely in December knew he was going to defect to reform. So he's known for at least a month, people are saying.
00:04:53
John Gartside
was planning for it to come out a while. And actually on Sunday, so this happened on a Thursday, but on the Sunday before, Bayeson up phoned Robert Jenrick and said,
00:04:59
Dejan
you
00:05:03
John Gartside
There are all these rumours. Are you defecting? He said no. Then, actually, before it happened, only a few days before, he went to a dinner with Conservative Party members and donors at the Ivy near London Bridge. And there, he apparently played the happy act. He said...
00:05:20
John Gartside
didn't act at all like he was going to defect to reform, which perhaps suggests he was going to wait a few months. But then it was apparently sort of an open secret.
00:05:31
John Gartside
It's been largely blamed to just serial carelessness and Jenrick's team. Apparently the pubs and offices of Southwest One of Westminster, his staff effectively, or member of his staff, has been saying that Jenrick was going to defect. So he was clearly betrayed within circle.
Impact on Political Landscape
00:05:52
John Gartside
But I think his motivations are interesting because Jenrick will know that he's not going to be prime minister at the next election.
00:05:58
Dejan
Yeah.
00:06:00
Dejan
Or ever.
00:06:03
John Gartside
And yeah, I think he definitely abandons his chance of leadership for the next decade. But then perhaps Kemi was always going to keep him as Lord Chancellor.
00:06:13
John Gartside
Perhaps Nigel would not regenerate something like Chancellor of the Exchequer or Foreign Secretary, a higher post to give him more authority. And Kemi may not have done that, I think. And I don't think she would have, because as he is her main opposition, you can imagine that she wouldn't have wanted to make him too central.
00:06:32
John Gartside
But perhaps Farage can put Jenrick in a high place. And I think Farage would. He would make him Chancellor or Foreign Secretary because Jenrick will be one of the few people in Farage's team that has ministerial experience, that has experience being an MP at a high level and at a ministerial cabinet level.
00:06:39
Dejan
you
00:06:52
John Gartside
And that's what Farage lacks. And this is what Tim Shipman, a famous of political writer, was saying when he's writing, is that... For Farage, it can be a win in way because Farage has wanted experienced people, people who have knowledge of how to implement and govern well, and Jenrick could fulfill that.
00:07:24
John Gartside
But then one has to consider his own seat. Jenrick's seat had a narrow majority and it would have looked like reform if there was an election would have probably won the seat.
00:07:34
Dejan
think.
00:07:34
John Gartside
So he may have thought about his seat, which is Newark, as well as his career ambitions. Clearly Jenrick thinks he can get a big job in reform. So yes.
00:07:44
John Gartside
What do you think, Diane? Do you think... Who are the winners and losers of this? Has Kemi won away or has she just solely lost or is a mixture?
00:07:53
John Gartside
Have they both won a bit but also lost a bit perhaps Badenov and Farage?
00:07:59
Dejan
I think the biggest winner at the moment is honestly Keir Starmer.
00:08:04
John Gartside
Oh yeah, yeah.
00:08:04
Dejan
I think Keir Starmer is the biggest winner from this situation. mean, let's look at it from this way. As
00:08:11
Dejan
someone who's not very much sympathiser of Reform UK, if you have to say mildly,
00:08:16
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:08:18
Dejan
I don't think this is a win for them. I think it kind of betrays their base a little bit. Their base is sort of, oh, we're not with them. We're new. We've not been in power. You know, they've messed up the country. We're going to come and fix it. And now you're bringing all these people have actually messed up the country quite actively with their previous positions and roles. And you're bringing them in your team. So I think they've betrayed their base a little bit.
Reform UK's Credibility Questioned
00:08:42
Dejan
I don't think it'll be that big of an impact, though, because the large majority of reformed voters are...
00:08:47
Dejan
So brainwashed, I do not care.
00:08:50
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:08:50
Dejan
I think Camille Beidouk is absolutely catastrophic for the Tories because it just screams of desperation. Screams of desperation at the highest level in the party. The highest officials are desperate. Desperate they're going to lose their seats, that they're to big electoral loss, that the party's going nowhere.
00:09:09
Dejan
This doesn't smell good. As a donor, as anything, even as sympathiser of the Tory party, this does not look good to you. And it makes you want to sort evaluate your options. Where do you go? What do you do? Because at the moment, this is a sinking ship and just looks like Jenrick managed to figure out just the right time before to depart the ship before he's going drown with it.
00:09:31
Dejan
Now, again, I also think he's lost a little bit, though, because lot of people putting him in this sort of role of being the new face of the Tory party, maybe, and sort of being this bit of a fresh figure on social media and...
00:09:42
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
00:09:46
Dejan
bit more modern and his approach and everything. But he's just betrayed of that again. This is the same guy who, like, a year and a half ago was saying, I wouldn't like Farage to run my kids' school.
00:09:58
Dejan
Farage is not the type of guy want to run my country. And now he's sort of done this defection out of what? Out of desperation. It doesn't look good for him either.
00:10:10
Dejan
If it's personal brand, I think it's not in a good place.
00:10:15
John Gartside
Yeah, I think that's really interesting there, because Robert Jenrick's defection does show that the Conservative Party is a sinking ship. He wanted to get out before he'd have drowned, perhaps, as you said there.
00:10:27
John Gartside
And so I think it shows the fairly dismal future for the Conservative Party. There's been an argument that it sort of perhaps solidifies Kerry's control, because having MPs who want to defect isn't the best. But It's fairly dismal for the Tories.
00:10:44
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah, it's not great.
00:10:47
John Gartside
He gets a lot of experience with Jennerick. Jennerick's got experience, knowledge of politics at a high level. Even though he is a betrayer, could say that a lot of these Reform Party members, MPs, are people who were pretty much all former Tories.
00:11:01
John Gartside
A lot their
00:11:01
Dejan
But yeah, again, I think it's just the question of...
00:11:04
John Gartside
It's slightly Hippocratic, but you can say that the party is built of people who have betrayed the Tories, even in a Hippocratic sense of they're the ones who could have made this situation in a way that they had to betray the Tories, even though they're partly responsible for the state of the country.
00:11:06
Dejan
Yeah.
00:11:10
Dejan
Yeah.
Digital IDs and Political U-turns
00:11:22
John Gartside
But a key idea I thought you said as well, Diane, is actually related to a friend of the podcast, Ryan Wayne. who was one of the key innovators and key thinkers behind the idea of digital IDs, which was a major U-turn that Keir Starmer announced this week.
00:11:41
John Gartside
And it would have looked, and it did look, but it would have looked even worse for the government of Keir Starmer, this U-turn, had Jenrick not defected, because it's fairly embarrassing that he's U-turned once again.
00:11:46
Dejan
Thank you.
00:11:54
John Gartside
it helps Keir get off a bit lighter.
Iran Protests and Trump's Threats
00:11:57
John Gartside
in that sense because Ryan Wayne, I saw him on Twitter saying how he was initially horrified but then sort of saw that it wasn't a complete phase out of digital IDs but nonetheless, clearly bit shocked.
00:12:09
John Gartside
What else you think about?
00:12:09
Dejan
Yeah, I think, you know, digital IDs discussed previously in depth.
00:12:14
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:12:15
Dejan
I don't think they're a bad idea. I think the same people who, you know, again, I've made all arguments before, but what is the case really is that Robert Jenrick, I think, with this move, has made a very, very strong signal to everyone.
00:12:17
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:12:20
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:12:34
Dejan
And that signal is that he doesn't have faith in the Tory leadership at the moment.
00:12:39
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:12:42
Dejan
But also, I was Nigel Farage, I don't know if I'd like that kind of person, you know, my sort of most inner circle. Because if he left once in the middle of the night, basically, which was what he was going to do, because if he didn't announce it, he was going to wait until the toughest moment and jump ship.
00:13:02
Dejan
And if he does that once, then how do you know he's not going to do it again when...
00:13:07
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:13:07
Dejan
Every single reformed voter wakes up the fifth day after reform won the election and realise that prices are still up, Brexit has still damaged the country, mass immigration and mass illegal immigration still occurs, and that Farage hasn't done single thing to solve any of their problems. And not just that, they're going to understand, hopefully, that all these sort of made-up issues, immigration, this, that, digital ID, whatever, whatever, whatever,
00:13:36
Dejan
They're just made up. They're not real. They're not the big issues that people are facing.
00:13:40
John Gartside
But then in Farage's defence, I think he would argue that the reason why he probably will trust Jenrick is so he can have the best chance of solving those problems.
00:13:50
John Gartside
Because it's simply, the same way he's welcomed Nadeem Zahawi, a former Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer, only brief, but nonetheless, Chancellor the Exchequer, who was a very efficient cabinet minister during COVID,
00:14:02
John Gartside
with his programme, The
Potential for an Iranian Revolution
00:14:03
John Gartside
Vaccine Rollout.
00:14:04
Dejan
you
00:14:05
John Gartside
I personally probably still vote for the Conservatives over reform on a more of an ideological basis, but I still nonetheless think that Reform UK, they are waking up slightly to this idea that they need to do well in government.
00:14:19
John Gartside
Farage is trying to attract people who have experience in governance, especially from the Tories. He's hinted quite heavily towards a Labour figure joining reform.
00:14:30
Dejan
Thank
00:14:32
John Gartside
I don't know if this would be an MP or a councillor, but if it was to be an MP, that would signal something far more significant.
00:14:42
John Gartside
So I think it's an interesting situation for reform. I think Faraj is clearly thinking as if he will win the next election because he wants a plan for governance and a plan to create strong government.
00:14:57
John Gartside
And clearly Jenrick's in that position. What do you think about this, Dan, before we sort of transition over to Iran?
00:14:59
Dejan
Yeah.
00:15:02
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah, again, I think, you know, he's thinking about the next election and it's easier to defend the seat than win it.
00:15:07
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:15:10
John Gartside
Yeah. Yeah.
00:15:10
Dejan
So, you know, he's been trying to get the right people. But again, I don't know. I'm not, I'm definitely not a reformed voter. But if I was...
00:15:22
Dejan
I would feel very much betrayed by this sort of thing that we're doing of, oh, Labour and the Tories destroyed the UK, but I'm going to get all ex-Labour and Tory people to join reform. Like, how does that make sense? One plus one does not equal three.
00:15:41
Dejan
But again, it's very tough time for a lot of people. So are they actually going care?
00:15:45
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:15:46
Dejan
Probably not.
00:15:48
John Gartside
I suppose it is a paradoxical nature of reform in that they're relying on people who are arguably responsible for the state that Britain is in to fix Britain.
00:15:56
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:15:57
John Gartside
But then the members are the same. They're people who supported parties that perhaps didn't the best.
00:16:04
John Gartside
But transitioning across the European land mass, Diane, there's the other major political developments this week have occurred in Iran, notably these protests against their supreme leader, of which Trump has almost made the world teeter on the edge of warfare, especially with his threats to intervene, which I think for a second definitely had everyone, it had to me thinking,
00:16:34
John Gartside
There could be some pretty drastic consequences next, especially in light of what happened in Venezuela, threats in Greenland.
00:16:40
Dejan
Yeah.
00:16:42
John Gartside
So what do you think about this situation in Iran involving Trump and Ayatollah Kavanaugh?
00:16:49
Dejan
Yeah, I think, you know, very interesting. I think I thought that remaining again, he's been the longest serving dictator that exists at the moment.
00:16:56
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:16:57
Dejan
You don't become the longest serving dictator by being sloppy or by making mistakes. That doesn't happen.
Netanyahu's Silence and Future Moves
00:17:03
Dejan
Someone gets you in your own country or someone from another country gets you at the end. But they haven't been able to get out to Allah Khomeini because he has been very careful. He's been very sort of calculated in his decision and his approach and how he's handled Iran.
00:17:18
Dejan
I mean, look, do I think Trump's going to do anything? Honestly, no, I don't. Because, again, I think Ayatollah Khomeini smart enough to be able to do anything. And the big thing, though, isn't that, I don't think, John. I think that there are two bigger issues than what Trump is going to do. And that is, are we going to have actual Iranian revolution?
00:17:40
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:17:41
John Gartside
Yeah. Yes.
00:17:42
Dejan
Because Ahtolah Khomeini can do whatever, you know, to escape international fury and sort do these deals and stuff. But he can't do anything if a million people in Tehran wake up tomorrow and start going and barging his palace, you know?
00:17:57
Dejan
So, you know, maybe that will happen and then Iran can have a democracy or Reza Pahlavi can return. Also, if you watch this episode, do accept our invitation and we look forward to seeing you in an interview soon. But also, what is Benjamin Netanyahu doing?
00:18:16
Dejan
That is the real question. He's been advocating for, you know, destroy Iran for years. He's been, this is the biggest threat for Israel. What is he doing? Where is he?
00:18:27
John Gartside
Yeah, I think you made some very good points there. And the thing one must remember is that Venezuela didn't really retaliate at all against Trump when Trump abducted their leader.
00:18:37
Dejan
Yes.
00:18:41
John Gartside
American intervention in Iran would end up a very different way. They've pretty directly said to Trump that if you attack us, that base in that US base in Qatar is gone.
00:18:52
John Gartside
And similarly, I think they would show quite a strong attitude towards aggression. And I think Trump recognizes that because he has slightly backed out. He's slightly retreated.
00:19:04
John Gartside
Partly because the Iranians, I mean the Iranian government is totally irrational, but they've said that they'll sort of slow down, the executions will stop. I don't know that holds actually any weight, probably doesn't at all.
00:19:17
John Gartside
But that's what they've said. And that sort of example of appeasement there shows that they do feel threatened by Trump. But nonetheless, I think that we could be experiencing the new sort of, we had the Arab Spring 2011, were too young to remember, but that was a series of revolutions that occurred across that part of the world against the territorial regime.
00:19:37
Dejan
Yeah.
00:19:41
John Gartside
And I think it could happen in Iran. It's clear that people are very frustrated with the current system and that there is a huge appetite for reform.
00:19:45
Dejan
Yeah, definitely.
00:19:52
John Gartside
Yesterday, was actually having a discussion similar to this about what makes a successful revolution. And sort of came up with many ideas, such as need a strong military, a sort of centralized power. You need to be able to mobilize the masses.
00:20:08
John Gartside
You need to be able to be very organized once you have taken power. And those ideas of what can make a successful revolution they may not apply to Iran in short term to the issue. I think, I do honestly think there's a chance of an Iranian revolution, but I think it's probably slightly further down the line.
00:20:27
John Gartside
It is almost situation which will happen in a year or two where an organised militia or group will strongly be against Aitola Khamenei.
00:20:33
Dejan
Yeah.
00:20:37
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:20:38
Dejan
I think, yeah, I agree with you. I think, you know, it's much more like to have a Syria-esque...
00:20:44
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:20:45
Dejan
You know, they've got this militia led by someone. But honestly, John, that can happen tomorrow. I mean, you just never know.
00:20:52
John Gartside
Yeah, they could.
00:20:54
Dejan
Because if there is a huge uprising and they could do this very disorganized revolution where they stormed Tehran, get Ayatollah Khomeini, shoot him in the head in the back, you know, national TV or in front of million people, that can happen.
00:21:00
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:21:07
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:21:08
Dejan
After what happens, that's another question.
00:21:10
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:21:10
Dejan
And, you know, maybe someone else will take over or we'll see. It's very hard to say. But I think it's such an unstable time. And again, for me, I'm getting a bit worried because Benjamin Netanyahu isn't doing anything.
00:21:23
Dejan
And to me, that's not good news.
00:21:23
John Gartside
Yeah. That'd
00:21:24
Dejan
For a lot of people that Benjamin Netanyahu is not doing anything is good news. I fully disagree. think he's planning something. Because I just don't buy this whole narrative that no, Bibi Netanyahu has decided that he's going to be a pacifist and not get involved in Iran. Come on, really?
00:21:44
Dejan
Something's definitely happening under the radar, which we don't know. And the moment that gets out, I think is going to completely shift the balance.
00:21:52
John Gartside
Yeah, I mean, perhaps. mean, I don't. Yeah. Yeah, perhaps in Esignahu.
Historical Revolution Parallels
00:21:57
John Gartside
But I think nonetheless, Trump, I think Iran will become increasingly, it already is very cut off, but Trump's threats to economic sanctions.
00:22:07
John Gartside
And think the international community will get quite oppressive towards Iran, rightly.
00:22:13
Dejan
Yeah.
00:22:13
John Gartside
And perhaps that will fuel this appetite for revolution there. But nonetheless, I mean, it's still shocking and horrifying to you. I think during the course of these protests, there have been 2,500 deaths.
00:22:25
John Gartside
Even with Trump saying, asking for them not to happen.
00:22:30
John Gartside
Similarly, these people that they said they won't execute now because of this international pressure have apparently just got delayed execution warrants and things.
00:22:40
John Gartside
So it's unfortunate that the situation there isn't shifting in the right direction, topping the regime.
00:22:45
Dejan
Yeah. I mean, you know, bottom line for me is Jaime's got to go.
00:22:50
John Gartside
Yeah, yeah, that's what needs to happen, frankly.
00:22:51
Dejan
You know, he's got to He's got to go. But again, he's got to go is very different from let's go in and kidnap him in the middle of the night in his Nike tech suit.
00:23:00
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:23:02
Dejan
What I'd prefer is... is, you know, an Iranian revolution, maybe just how there were the communist revolutions in the 1980s, in the sort in the
00:23:21
John Gartside
And yet this is a key idea that mentioned there with revolutions, which historians find, is that after the revolution has occurred, it's about establishing a power base, establishing a political system that's concrete enough and stable enough to ensure the longevity of the new regime it could be. An example of the American Revolution, they won independence against the British, had the Articles of the Confederation, but then it was events like the Constitutional Convention in 1787 in which they were trying to activate this breakaway colony of North America to establish new political base.
00:23:58
Dejan
Yeah.
00:23:59
John Gartside
And that's, I think, perhaps what's gone wrong in Syria, which is recent event. It's It's become slightly unstable there. Yes.
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:24:09
John Gartside
So we hope you've enjoyed the episode. If you are still listening and watching, and we hope you still are, please do hit the subscribe button, like, comment, follow us wherever you're listening, and follow us on social media. We post lots of updates, lots of clips across Instagram, X or Twitter, TikTok, as well as YouTube Shorts. We're very keen on it.
00:24:32
John Gartside
in the coming weeks probably or perhaps months, I think Diane will hit 100,000 views overall YouTube. So if you are listening on YouTube or watching, thank you.
00:24:43
Dejan
Thank you very much and see you next week.
00:24:45
John Gartside
See you there.