Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
S4 E42: Starmer's resignation, and will Burnham be the next PM?
0 Plays3 seconds ago
Today John and Dejan are discussing Sir Keir Starmer's resignation, and the likelihood that Burnham will be the next Prime Minister.
Recommended
Transcript
Podcast Comeback and Introduction
00:00:00
Dejan
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. After quite a big break, we are back, we are ready, we have sort of conquered the heights.
00:00:11
Dejan
of our final school examinations ever.
Keir Starmer's Resignation: Causes and Consequences
00:00:16
Dejan
But obviously we're back today mainly because of the news that have hit this morning, which is that Keir Starmer has resigned. Now this comes as a result of a variety of reasons.
00:00:30
Dejan
Unpopularity, the sort recent issues in regards to sort of policing also... Mainly, to be honest, I think it's due to the results the Makerfield by-election, where Andy Burnham has gotten a staggering 55% of the vote, becoming the new MP for Makerfield and therefore probably being in a position to contest Starmer for the prime ministerial role.
00:00:39
debatablediscussions
Thank you.
00:00:57
Dejan
What do you think,
Makerfield By-election and Labour Dynamics
00:00:57
Dejan
John? What has led to this sudden resignation?
00:01:02
debatablediscussions
Well, I mean, I think there's two reasons. You've got the long-term factor. Prime Minister's only resigned because of generally how they've performed. And obviously, Key has had fairly unremarkable governance.
00:01:15
Dejan
Yeah.
00:01:16
debatablediscussions
He hasn't been able to attract significant supports really since his 2024 election. That landslide victory, he 411 seats in Parliament. He sort of decimated Tories, people said. But since then I think it's 716 days premiership have just been filled with perhaps controversy or if not that, just perhaps an inability to achieve something really substantial which people have wanted.
00:01:46
debatablediscussions
U-turns have been sort characteristic of his governance as well, with people not really knowing what Keir wants, what Keir stands for. So I think there is that long-term factor I've mentioned there. Firstly, he's only been able to be in a position to resign because of his premiership.
Labour Leadership Speculations
00:02:05
debatablediscussions
And then there's also a short-term factor, as you're alluding there, to that, Dejan, that has led to Keir's downfall. And that catalyst, perhaps, is the Makerfield by-election which happened four days ago last week and Andy Burnham won a fairly resounding victory in what was effectively a vote perhaps a by-election on the leadership of the country. The people of Makerfield knew they controlled who would be the next Prime Minister and that is the case.
00:02:38
debatablediscussions
Burnham's gotten into power effectively. Obviously between the July 9th to July 17th other Labour MPs wouldn't be able to oppose their their candidature. However likely think Burnham would probably be the only candidate.
00:02:52
debatablediscussions
West Streeting, who was his major opponent, just a few tens of minutes before recording this has said that he'll support Burnham.
00:02:55
Dejan
Yeah.
00:03:00
debatablediscussions
likely because Burnham would have offered a bit of an incentive to West Streeting, sort of cabinet position perhaps. Similarly, Angela
Burnham's Campaign and Northern Appeal
00:03:09
debatablediscussions
Rayner is going to support Burnham.
00:03:11
debatablediscussions
I think there was rumours that Angela Rayner maybe offered the job of Defence Secretary, which is...
00:03:16
Dejan
From what I've seen was health secretary, but but yeah.
00:03:19
debatablediscussions
Was House Secretary? Yeah, no one's sure. I saw that she was perhaps receiving defence advice, but she's been offered something. No one knows exactly. And I think there'll be other people similarly. Darren Jones, who's Kia's sort of longstanding ally.
00:03:38
debatablediscussions
He was someone that was perhaps a potential candidate, but Darren Jones will know that he won't be able to attract much support. He will definitely not be able to win the leadership contest. So perhaps for him,
00:03:52
debatablediscussions
the right move is to go into that similar direction other people have taken like Wes and almost try get your foot in the door of the next government. What do you think they are?
00:04:02
Dejan
Yeah, I think, you know, just spending a bit more time on the make-feel by-election, actually.
00:04:06
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:04:08
Dejan
I think there's two sort of schools of thought regarding the results and the explanation for the results. And one is the sort of, I'm sorry to say this, but propaganda pushed by sort of the right-wing Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe that are basically saying, look...
00:04:24
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:04:25
Dejan
This isn't a vote for Andy Burnham, this is a vote for Starmer out. And people thought Andy Burnham was going to get Starmer out better than Reform and Restore. I can understand that, I didn't think that was the main reason. I think, yeah, sure, that was a factor. And I think maybe 15% of the vote that Andy Burnham received, yes, it was about getting Stammer out, sure. I think a resounding majority of that 55% he's managed to get is the result of his time as the mayor of Greater Manchester. and sort of people seeing him as an effective local politician.
00:04:58
Dejan
But it's also to do with this divide that a lot of people sort of feel in regards to the north and the south of the country.
00:05:02
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:05:07
Dejan
I think people in Makerfield made a decision, knowing that Burnham has a very good chance of becoming prime minister, you know, one of the of only prime ministers from the north in recent times. I mean, if you look the Conservatives, got Boris Johnson, London, David Cameron from the south, Theresa May, etc., etc., etc. Que estamos a London MP as well. So...
00:05:30
Dejan
is about making that shift and getting some representation from that area
Burnham's Political Integrity: A Question?
00:05:34
Dejan
of the country. But it's also, I think, Burnham ran a great campaign. I think, you know, he made a very, very sort of relatable in some way.
00:05:38
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:05:44
Dejan
He was very, very, you know, those cartoon characters of him with a big head and the glasses. him saying his slogan, vote for us, really made him seem as a sort of integral part of the community, which is something that a lot of people try to attack him on, saying, oh, but you're just going to go to London, be prime minister, you don't care about the community. And actually he's managed to flip the script And instead of sort of backtracking and saying, no, no, no, be the MP, I'll be the MP, he sort made very clear, you know, with a bit of pushing, to be fair, that if I win this by-election and there's a leadership contest, I will stand.
00:06:21
Dejan
And I will use that influence for the benefit of the community. I think that's something that a lot of people like. Like, I'm... I think, you know, if you're thinking, even in Romania, you know, you having a prime minister or a president from your city or your area, even if you know, reality, they won't be able to do anything substantial. It is still something to do with sort of this local pride.
00:06:46
Dejan
And I think a lot of people will have said, you know what, yeah, how about we have someone else? But also, I think a major reason for a Burnham's win was the sheer incompetency of the reform candidate.
00:06:55
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:06:58
Dejan
I mean, that was just astounding.
00:07:01
Dejan
You know, every question the guy was asked, he said, that's not of me, that's not on Nigel and Richard Tice. So, you know, you can't have an MP actually doesn't really know what they're doing.
00:07:13
Dejan
and expect the people to put their trust in
Reform Candidate's Impact on Elections
00:07:15
Dejan
them. What do you think, John?
00:07:17
debatablediscussions
I mean, I agree with the reform candidate. I definitely think the reform candidate could be better. actually completely disagree with you. I think Burnham only won that election to become prime minister. I think the first point you said was interesting was that Burnham was great for Greater Manchester.
00:07:31
debatablediscussions
I think there's a few angles here. I think, firstly, not everyone Makerfield would regard themselves as being Greater Manchester. There's a view there that they're from Wigan, not Greater Manchester.
00:07:38
Dejan
Yeah.
00:07:41
debatablediscussions
Also, not everyone views Burnham as being a great local politician in many ways.
00:07:42
Dejan
Okay.
00:07:45
debatablediscussions
Many actually attribute the success of Manchester recent years. So think it's the CEO of the Manchester Development Board or there's something there, there's a body that actually has attributed the success of Greater Manchester rather than Burnham. But I think most problematically about Burnham is that I don't think he'll be a great Prime Minister because I don't know what Burnham stands for, and I don't think anyone does. Not people in Makerfield and not people in the Labour Party. So there's been five major U-turns of Burnham in his campaign in Makerfield, which showed a sort of perhaps a slight lack of political integrity, I thought. U-turns on immigration, benefits, gender and Brexit. There are four areas and there's a fifth one think is involved and sort of mix benefits immigration one. But these are five big areas which Burnham sort of just happily U-turns on, flips the script to win support. He lacks sort of integrity there.
00:08:45
debatablediscussions
I mean, the people in Makefield knew they were being used as well. They weren't blind to this.
00:08:49
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:50
debatablediscussions
They knew that if they voted for Burnham, they got Starr more out.
00:08:54
Dejan
Yeah.
00:08:55
debatablediscussions
Conversely, they would have known that if they voted for Robert Kenyon, who, as we've said there, Diane, was a flawed candidate, so that didn't help.
00:09:01
Dejan
So poor.
00:09:03
debatablediscussions
But they knew that if they voted for Robert Kenyon, Starr would be the Prime Minister still, because, don't know, don't think Wes's leadership challenge was strong enough.
00:09:12
Dejan
I disagree there. I think, yeah, I think another loss for the Labour Party with such a big candidate.
00:09:14
debatablediscussions
Do you? Because Yeah,
00:09:20
Dejan
Andy Burnham is probably the sort of biggest candidate the Labour Party has.
00:09:26
Dejan
And... A lot for them, think West Streeting would have been able to capitalize on that and say, know what, this is not, this not due to Andy Burnham.
00:09:27
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:09:32
Dejan
This is due to the failures of the Keir Starmer leadership government. And he needs to go. Otherwise we're going to lose every
Burnham's Victory: A National Turning Point?
00:09:38
Dejan
single seat. If Burnham can't win against a sort of unknown candidate who's made sexist comments openly in the past and who doesn't know what hell they're doing.
00:09:40
debatablediscussions
I'm not convinced.
00:09:45
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I'm not convinced by that because Wes's support is drastically different to Burnham's, two different parts of Party, and I actually don't think Wes would have gotten the MPs to trigger a leadership contest.
00:09:54
Dejan
Yeah.
00:10:12
debatablediscussions
I think people in Makerfield knew that they had to vote Burnham to get Starmer out the easiest way. Also people in Makerfield wouldn't have wanted Streeting to be Prime Minister as well, likely, because Streeting even more of that metropolitan image you're alluding to than Starmer perhaps.
00:10:18
Dejan
Yeah.
00:10:23
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:10:29
debatablediscussions
Streeting obviously being from East London and MP there at the moment. So people Mayfield knew the reason why their previous MP was that Josh Simmons had resigned and why Burnham was fighting that.
00:10:45
debatablediscussions
Burnham was fighting that everyone to get into office. A vote for Burnham then by extension wasn't because Burnham is great or has this great political compass because we've discussed no one really knew what he stood for.
00:10:48
Dejan
Yeah.
00:10:57
debatablediscussions
Perhaps they also didn't feel particularly attached to his work in Greater Manchester, but what they did feel attached to was the chance that Burnham would display Starmer.
00:11:08
debatablediscussions
The dissatisfaction of Starmer is the main thing, and that was remedied by other things. the reformed vote, only minorly broken by restore, but as we said there, Diane, I think on paper, Robert Kenyon was probably a good candidate, but then it was just reality he unfolded.
00:11:24
Dejan
Just that apart, yeah.
00:11:27
debatablediscussions
So on paper, was a local person who had fought the previous election, a member of the army reserves. However, it was sort of when they took him into the debate and perhaps unraveled a bit more of his persona was problem.
00:11:32
Dejan
I think
00:11:38
Dejan
Yeah, I think with that, I think what they were trying to do is sort of replicate what the Greens did in the Gorton and Denton by-election where sort local Plummer won.
00:11:40
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:11:44
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
00:11:48
Dejan
But I think what reform got wrong... And it's for being Matt Goodwin, who's one of the big hitters for reform. I think what reform actually got wrong is that the reason the person in Gorton and Denton won is not because she's a plumber.
00:12:02
Dejan
not the main reason. It was because she actually, you know, apart from just being a local person, didn't have any controversies. no sort of major red flags with comments made on Twitter. And then he's saying, you know, she did not say, I am sexist. I'm sorry, but I am, end quote.
00:12:21
Dejan
And also, think the biggest reason is she actually, when asked the question, she was able to answer it. And she didn't just sort of backtrack all the time saying, you know, I'm going to get 30,000 more police officers.
00:12:33
Dejan
Okay, how are you going to do that?
00:12:34
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:34
Dejan
That's the job for the person that's recruiting them.
00:12:37
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:12:37
Dejan
I also think, you know,
00:12:38
debatablediscussions
Should it all sound candid?
00:12:39
Dejan
Yeah, definitely. And also, I think, you know, Andy Burnham, we can say whatever we want, but there's a personal opinion on him. But do think his approval rating in Manchester is quite high.
00:12:49
Dejan
I mean, he's won every election over 60% of votes, including a recent one with 63% in So definitely popular the region.
00:12:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:01
Dejan
But I also think that level of influence that he has is obviously going to be beneficial. When you're coming with a very known candidate, it's almost very hard to beat that.
00:13:15
Dejan
And it takes a miracle to have this unknown local candidate being able to be a national figure. Because, frankly, the amount of people following politics isn't 100%, right?
00:13:25
Dejan
So...
00:13:25
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:13:26
Dejan
A lot of people would have heard about Andy Burnham and would have said, yeah, you know, I have this friend who lives in Greater Manchester who says, you know, the buses are great. going to vote for Andy Burnham. I think Andy Burnham's campaign as well was really good. He sort of managed to actually get a page of the Farage notebook, went to the pub a couple times, you know, just looked like a very different candidate to Robert Kenyon. I don't think Robert Kenyon was actually that personable at all, especially with women.
00:13:55
Dejan
I find it very, very hard for most women to actually muster the guts to vote for him because of his comments in the past. And I think...
00:14:06
Dejan
Really, the defining feature, as you said, it was to get Keir Starmer out.
00:14:11
debatablediscussions
Yeah, that was the whole, that's my 50 of that 55% vote.
00:14:13
Dejan
But
00:14:15
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:14:16
Dejan
I don't think just purely getting Starmer out was the reason of this level of success.
Restore Britain vs. Reform UK: New Political Threat
00:14:21
Dejan
I think it's also, you know, Burnham's national figure. Also, the promise of having a prime minister from your constituency.
00:14:30
Dejan
It's something people like, you know.
00:14:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah, loosely. I think, I mean, you have to remember though that people like it, but then there's also a crowd of people who, if Raj, are very keen to say that you lose the local MP side it.
00:14:43
debatablediscussions
So it's sort of what type of Prime Minister you want, MP you want, because they will sort of largely neglect, I think, the local issues.
00:14:45
Dejan
Yeah.
00:14:50
Dejan
Well, you know, but I think people definitely knew that was what was going to happen.
00:14:53
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:14:54
Dejan
And I think...
00:14:57
Dejan
being able to have that, you know, choice of saying, look, what do we want? I think people have chosen, want my MP to be a national figure and be prime minister.
00:15:06
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:15:07
Dejan
I think that's a, you know, sound and sort expected choice in my opinion. I think something else we need to talk about is reform getting reformed.
00:15:19
Dejan
this sort of current of Rupert Lowe being even more far-right and sort attacking at reform, the same way reform has done to the Conservatives in the last couple of years.
00:15:30
Dejan
That's what Restore is doing now, and they're splitting the vote, they're stealing people, they're saying reform's not radical enough, they're not right-wing, we are the only right-wing party in the UK. And, you know, not going OK, we're going to stop the boats.
00:15:43
Dejan
Going even further, we're going to get away people who are on indefinitely if they remain.
00:15:45
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:15:48
Dejan
Nationals of the UK are going to be deported. I mean, absolutely, excuse my language, crazy ideas.
00:15:52
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:15:54
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:15:54
Dejan
I mean, I don't know who on earth thinks that's a great... you know, way to do things, let's just deport everyone and, you know, stop, freeze all migration.
00:16:06
Dejan
I mean, these guys live in a fantasy world. You know, they say the lefties, the progressive lefties live in a fantasy world allowing all this migration, but, you know, they live in a fantasy world of their own thinking that they're just going to magically be able to stop all migration without any sort of serious impact on the British economy.
00:16:15
debatablediscussions
Thank
00:16:27
debatablediscussions
To be honest, I think everyone's far more concerned about them than I am, because in the past there's been lots of these almost breakaway, far, far right right wing parties.
00:16:38
debatablediscussions
And typically they haven't done very well, simply because that's just not the support surely is there for them. So at Makerfield, I think, did they win a couple of percent?
00:16:47
Dejan
I think they want 7 or 8%.
00:16:49
debatablediscussions
So they won 7% or 8% in Makefield. So that's perhaps a constituency that could have more voters that are favourable to restore. But equally, there'll be many constituencies where I just don't think there'll be at all many votes for restore UK. I think, you know, nationally, they will manage to get some votes, but perhaps they can chip away a bit at reform UK. But at the end of the day, I do think there's been many of these parties in the past, far right parties, and perhaps that perhaps unfortunately that extreme far right is growing.
00:17:23
Dejan
Yeah.
00:17:29
debatablediscussions
But I do just think that I just don't think there's enough support for them to have a serious impact. Because as you said, Diane, their ideas are sort of verging on crazy. And I think, and I think,
00:17:41
debatablediscussions
Yeah. And that's what I think. I think honestly, perhaps it is growing this extreme far right, but actually it just won't get enough support.
00:17:49
Dejan
Yeah.
00:17:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:17:50
Dejan
I mean, I hope you're right. I hope you're right.
00:17:52
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:17:53
Dejan
But I think what's worrying for me is that this is what, you know, everyone, including us, have said about Reform UK with the Conservatives.
00:18:01
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:02
Dejan
Never going to happen.
00:18:03
Dejan
And now you look at the latest by-election, actually, and the Conservatives got like 1% or 2%. I who thought that was ever going to happen with the Conservatives getting 1% or 2% in an election, Reform sort of 35%, Restore I Restore is also...
00:18:18
Dejan
very fortunate that they are getting all this money pumped into them by Elon Musk and using, you know, I'm sure legal, the highly unethical tactics on social media, bots, everything.
00:18:23
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:18:33
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:18:33
Dejan
I mean, you know, the amount of times I see a video that has nothing to do with politics, you click on the comments and the first thing you say is vote restore. Rupert Lowe is the only one who can save us. And, you know, in this sort of current climate with social media and the way people see politics,
00:18:49
Dejan
I'm very, very, very worried that you're to have a bunch of people who are disgruntled with the system, unhappy with their situation, who are going to sort of wake up, actually, and realise reform is just a hoax.
00:19:03
Dejan
They've completely fooled me. But instead of actually going back to what we expect, which the sort traditional parties or so-and-so centre, they're going to be even more radicalised to the right wing and they're going you know, and this is not me saying that everyone that votes for Restore is crazy.
00:19:22
Dejan
I think manipulated, sure. Crazy, I don't think so. I think, you know, there's some legitimate concerns that Restore is bringing But I think the way they're doing it and the extent that they're sort of pushing it is crazy.
00:19:37
Dejan
I mean, you know.
00:19:39
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I mean, I'm not fan. I just disagree with them as well. Like you, Dan, I think they're just, you know, they're just very, very right wing.
00:19:47
Dejan
I mean, extremists, you could say.
00:19:48
debatablediscussions
You know, Yeah, and worryingly, worryingly. But I think Farage is just going to judge the current. So just these sort of parties, sometimes they go up in peaks and troughs a bit. Sometimes their popularity can peak. So I think it's a sort of case of almost judging, I think, for Farage and the Tories on the right wing and equally Labour at the moment. Is their popularity going to be long term?
00:20:13
debatablediscussions
So I think that's the first judgment they've got to take. And as I said, I'm not convinced they will have at all, they would have a considerable amount of long term support.
00:20:24
debatablediscussions
But then after that, perhaps it paves the way for a Tory reform coalition, I don't know, sort try and unite the right a bit more. But that does come with a lot of challenges. So perhaps I'm not fully convinced on that. But I think I think with Restore at the moment, it's sort of judging where they're at.
00:20:41
debatablediscussions
Because, mean, as you're saying that, Diane, I can sort of sense that on the horizon, there's going to be a sort of scandal about them. There's going to be something scandalous emerging.
00:20:50
Dejan
I mean, for sure.
00:20:52
debatablediscussions
Because there's all these calls about them, as you're saying there, using bots on Twitter and things. So I think, yeah, I'm not convinced about their long-term performance.
00:21:04
Dejan
Yeah, I mean, I think something else that they've got going for them, actually, is this sort of anti-establishment.
00:21:09
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:21:10
Dejan
So, mean, you know, just literally, once you were talking, I've just Googled their social media page. and the latest post on restore britain is following the rape gang inquiry report release they are going for rupert they here is day don't it will get worse and worse keep calm stay on track restore britain so it's that again it's these these people day the powerful controlling trying to silence us down and people love an underdog story right i mean some of the best
00:21:39
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:21:41
Dejan
best, you know, like Rocky Balboa. The whole reason Rocky Balboa is a great movie is because of the underdog story. People love someone who's against the establishment, who's fighting for them. And they feel betrayed by the establishment. And, you know, for fairly good reason.
Can Burnham Become Prime Minister?
00:21:56
Dejan
I think, you know, the last sort of 20 years of government haven't been great. You know, there's been a lot of ups and downs and mostly downs. But I think, you know, hopefully we'll get to a point where we actually realise that you know, going more and more to the extremes is not the way to get back what we've lost actually going back to the center and sort of being able to have a conversation.
00:22:14
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:22:19
Dejan
But I'm really curious what you think about this. I mean, Do you think Restore Britain, you just as a bracket for our listeners who are not really sure of the sort of performance, they've stood at the local elections in one place, West Yarmouth, and they've completely wiped it out. 10 out of 10 wins.
00:22:41
Dejan
self-sending this first MP by-election. So, you know, do you think that a party with this track record is actually in danger for Farage? I mean, he's already worried from what I'm sensing, but do you think he's going to get to a point where he gets so worried about Restore that actually there's going to be an opportunity for the Tories to jump back in and steal a bit of that right-wing vote?
00:23:02
debatablediscussions
Perhaps, but I'm sort of like you, Dan, in a way that I hope Restore will crash and burn. And I do think it will.
00:23:07
Dejan
Yeah.
00:23:09
debatablediscussions
I think you mentioned, obviously, their Great Yarmouth, but they did very well in the local elections. The MP for Great for Yarmouth obviously being Rupert Lowe.
00:23:15
Dejan
Rupert Lowe. Yeah.
00:23:17
debatablediscussions
And I think that is indicative of, you know, Great Yarmouth is the nexus, the focal points, the concentration of their support. But what I said is, and I do think this is that nationally, I'm not convinced of their level of support, especially as we said, because they've got, you know, they are this extreme right wing party. So yeah, I'm not really convinced. I do think it will sort of crash and burn a bit. I think across the political spectrum, parties like them have recently had quite a lot of support initially. I'm thinking of the Green Party under Sipolansky,
00:23:55
Dejan
Reform.
00:24:05
Dejan
Yeah.
00:24:15
debatablediscussions
So I think that would be the same, but I think with Restore, it's just, it's just this extreme right wing party which I can't see having long term sustainability.
00:24:23
Dejan
Yeah.
00:24:26
debatablediscussions
It's sort of like the Your Party of Jeremy Corbyn and Sara Cultana which I actually thought would do very well and I still stand by that opinion because I think the only reason they didn't do well is because of all these internal problems in the party.
00:24:39
Dejan
Yeah.
00:24:39
debatablediscussions
I think they just, Corbyn and Sultana disagreed on absolutely everything.
00:24:43
Dejan
Yeah.
00:24:44
debatablediscussions
Obviously, the name as well, they weren't sure what to call it. So they're just, I think, stuck with your party at the end. But I do think that could have done well just with the same logic that we were supposed to restore or the greed or reform of these parties who are offering a breakaway from the norm. And actually, I think your party got lots and lots of members similar to these other parties when it was initially set up for tens of thousands, at least.
00:25:08
Dejan
Yeah. I think also, you know, probably Andy Burnham isn't listening to this, but if he was, I think his biggest job right now is to actually manage to get the people who have been disillusioned by Labour and who've actually sort of
00:25:13
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:25:24
Dejan
gone on the other side of the political spectrum on the right and get them back into Labour. I mean, and he, I think, can do that because I think he's got the sort persona and the sort of way of being that he's quite popular with, you know.
00:25:38
Dejan
I mean, the same way that Boris Johnson sort of broke that red wall, you know, Andy Burnham now needs to break the reform wall.
00:25:45
Dejan
I think he can do it. It would be very challenging, but he can do it. And I think that's the sort of... best and easiest way to actually make these sort of fringe groups begin to deflate slowly and slowly. Because if Burnham manages to break through some of these reform held councils and constituencies and manages to get them back on site,
00:26:12
Dejan
that will be the first trigger that reform is going to go away. And, you know, Farage, from all his career, every single time the party went down, he went away.
00:26:24
Dejan
Right? So, you know, if you get... And also, reform is basically, it's on Farage's ID card. If he goes, the party goes away. I mean, Zia Yusuf could have stood, just doesn't want to.
00:26:38
Dejan
Richard Tice. just don't see the country going behind Richard Tice. Who else?
00:26:44
debatablediscussions
yeah but perhaps you know yeah perhaps and there are you know lots of uh people and i agree that reform is a one-man band but this whole sort of argument of okay if burnham breaks down reform councils breaks on reform constituencies it depends on burnham's performance in office
00:26:44
Dejan
Robert Jenrick?
00:27:00
Dejan
Definitely. Yeah.
00:27:01
debatablediscussions
And that is the sole thing, you know, people may like Burnham's personality or they may not. Although, as I said, they may view him as, you know, constantly doing these U-turns. But at the end of the day, it's what Burnham actually can do.
00:27:13
debatablediscussions
If can he deliver something substantial that pleases the nation? That's the ultimate judge of his character. I honestly don't know.
00:27:18
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:27:21
debatablediscussions
If I were to be Burnham, I would say have a sort of 10 point plan of things you want to do, things you want do quickly. But then would guess every other prime minister's had that.
00:27:30
debatablediscussions
So I think, so that's the thing.
00:27:34
debatablediscussions
Ultimately depends on his performance and he's, if I was Burnham, he's got to bring something new, something different to try and win people over.
00:27:43
Dejan
Definitely. And I agree with you fully. I think he's going to be judged by what he does in this term as prime minister.
00:27:48
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:27:49
Dejan
But also, I think he actually is in a position to be able to do something because the last couple of prime ministers, I mean, none of them have been enthusiastically sort of received by the population.
00:28:01
Dejan
I mean, well, no, no, no, After Johnson, after Johnson.
00:28:02
debatablediscussions
Well, I don't know, Johnson. You could say... Oh, yeah.
00:28:07
Dejan
So trust, trust.
00:28:07
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:28:10
Dejan
Rishi, not really. Keir, not really.
00:28:13
debatablediscussions
What was Keir, though? Because that's the interesting thing about Keir. You have to remember, he won this huge landslide.
00:28:18
Dejan
He won a huge majority, I don't think he won it.
00:28:20
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:28:20
Dejan
I think Labour won a huge majority.
00:28:22
debatablediscussions
Labour won it, but still he...
00:28:23
Dejan
And he was there.
00:28:24
debatablediscussions
He was there, but...
00:28:25
Dejan
I don't think people voted, want Keir as my Prime Minister. He was kind of this normal, quite stoic figure. People made fun of him, but they were like, you know, he's a decent person that's going to take us off this circus that the Conservative Party has been.
00:28:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:28:35
debatablediscussions
Yeah. But still, Keir had the opportunity. He had the nation's backing of the Labour Party.
00:28:42
Dejan
Yeah.
00:28:43
debatablediscussions
Perhaps not him, but of the Labour Party.
00:28:43
Dejan
Yeah.
00:28:45
debatablediscussions
I think... And, you know, Burnham... Burnham... Who knows if Burnham has that to the same extent? There hasn't been a general election.
00:28:51
Dejan
I do think he does. I think he actually I think Burnham has a more.
00:28:55
debatablediscussions
But does he appeal to people? may appeal to people in Manchester, but does he appeal to people, say, in the North East then, or in the South?
00:29:02
Dejan
I would say actually I think I think Andy Burnham has more support of the nation than Keir Starmer on his personal name.
00:29:11
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I mean, it depends on the stage. I think, yeah, I'm not...
00:29:13
Dejan
And I think if he takes that in and he takes that sort of momentum forwards and manages to get something done by the end of the year, he's going to be in a very strong position to actually keep going.
00:29:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:29:24
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:29:29
Dejan
But I think if he doesn't manage to get anything done quickly in the next six, eight months, people are not going look favourably on him. And the approval rating is going to shoot down just as quickly as they did for Keir Starmer.
00:29:41
debatablediscussions
And actually, and my key thing about Burnham is that no one knows what he stands for, and that's his biggest criticism. So what he will do is a key... is the key almost variable in this.
00:29:52
Dejan
Yeah.
00:30:01
Dejan
don't know, yeah.
00:30:03
debatablediscussions
Similarly, there's been things about benefits for migrants. He said he doesn't want to do that now. Previously, before he did. Where Burnham stands in many areas is sort of unknown, I think. And that will be a variable of what he does.
00:30:17
debatablediscussions
It's almost what he believes. And I think if he is going to be a sort of, perhaps this sort of constant U-turner like Starmer, the nation will need support in the same way that they did when Starmer did it.
00:30:26
Dejan
Yeah, I...
00:30:27
debatablediscussions
So I think the ball is in Burnham's court, literally.
00:30:32
Dejan
Yeah, definitely.
00:30:33
debatablediscussions
He's the master of his own fate.
00:30:34
Dejan
Yeah, and I think, you know, he's got a big majority. Like, there's nothing really holding him back.
00:30:37
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:30:40
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:30:40
Dejan
Came with the win of a pretty substantial by-election. I mean, local elections reform, so we've got 70% of vote make field, and he's managed to cut that down by half and something.
00:30:50
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:30:51
Dejan
So... You know, realistically, now all he needs to do is get a team together, win the leadership contest, and from then start governing and get things done.
00:30:58
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:31:03
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:31:04
Dejan
Because if does that, I think, and this is my prediction, if Andy Burnham has a successful term, I think he can actually maintain a majority.
00:31:15
Dejan
A smaller majority, but I think he can maintain a majority in the next election.
00:31:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I mean, that's obviously obvious. If he is successful, he will do well. But... equally the opposite if he's not certain who won't do well but I think you know what the key thing here is is how he performs and I'm not convinced I think he lacks a bit of direction and actually mean is he going to have conflicted cabinet who knows he's from the further left side of the party but then is he going to bring people like West Streeting I don't know I don't know I think
00:31:38
Dejan
Very nice.
00:31:41
Dejan
Very nice.
00:31:47
debatablediscussions
I think we live in this nation at the moment that has almost a revolving, sort of like at a restaurant, there's conveyor belts. It's a sort of conveyor belt to Prime Ministers, you sort take off a dish at a time for a different Prime Minister.
00:32:01
Dejan
you
Podcast's Future Plans and Regular Schedule
00:32:21
Dejan
Well, I, you know, honestly, I genuinely hope he does well because I think he is, in my mind, frankly, if Burnham fails, I don't think there's a way out from a reform majority.
00:32:25
debatablediscussions
Yeah, I think everybody does.
00:32:36
debatablediscussions
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:32:37
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:32:37
Dejan
But if he does well...
00:32:39
Dejan
He can stop that. And I wish him all the best. And yeah, I hope he manages to, number one, win this leadership contest. Because, you know, and we've talked about this before.
00:32:52
Dejan
Everyone thought George Cleverley was going to be the next Conservative leader. But his sort of delegates... Played the votes. And actually didn't go through the second round.
00:33:04
Dejan
So hopefully Andy Burnham doesn't do the same thing and starts giving away votes to people who he thinks he can be in a final.
00:33:07
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:33:10
Dejan
But... Yeah, win the contest. And then I hope he manages to keep on track. We'll be here talking about what's going on, any new policies. And also, before we end, also have to say couple of things that, number one, we are back to sort of normal uploading schedule, more or less, throughout the summer and from then on. But also, are currently working on a new thing for the podcast, something that think we'll sort revitalize it a little bit and sort of take it to the next level. But we'll be back with more details very soon about that. In the meantime, wishing you all a nice summer if you're holiday already.
00:33:53
Dejan
Hopefully, you know, I've written on our Instagram page, sort of, beach slash pool book that I think would be very nice to read, very short, not number of pages, but actually the time it takes for to read and also the brainpower required, Andrea Agassi's new biography, which is not new, but Andrea Agassi's autobiography, open.
00:34:15
debatablediscussions
And I'll simply try and a book review in coming days then as well.
00:34:15
Dejan
In the meantime,
00:34:18
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:34:18
Dejan
yeah. In the meantime, see you next week.
00:34:22
debatablediscussions
See then.
00:34:23
Dejan
Bye-bye.