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WCAD 3-18: Euro Matchay 3 Madness + Round of 16 Preview
81 Plays1 year ago
Austin and Amit get together to break down all the madness from Matchday 3, including Croatia's issues holding leads, Austria's outlook going forward, and a shocking set of results from Group F. Then, the guys look ahead to the Round of 16, which promises intrigue all around.
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Transcript
Dark Horse Teams and Horse Noises
00:00:01
Speaker
So as the last few days of major international tournament football were occurring, really only one thought was was going through my mind a bit. And that was, how successful do your dark horses have to be for me to get you to do a horse noise on the podcast?
00:00:20
Speaker
Oh, man. Listen, if we get a Venezuela and Austria two runs to semifinals, I will Winnie, I will nay. They cannot stop me, but we have a long ways to go.
Venezuela and Austria's Tournament Journey
00:00:34
Speaker
Keeping those horses, they went out, they ran fast, they got to go back to the stable. Rest up boys. We'll talk about Venezuela and their success on our Necrokopo America pod, which will come out this weekend once match day two rounds up. But good a good mixed bag for your Euro dark horse is a mitt, but I think Austria topping the group, like that kind of trumps everything else.
00:00:53
Speaker
Yeah, that was good. Ukraine crashed out. And I had said they were my favorite dark horse. So you know no one's batting 1,000. And then you know I said Albania was getting out of the group. so They were close. Not not that close. Came to go. but And then you know I don't think they were mine, per se, but Switzerland and Denmark are everyone's perpetual dark horses. And then it was nice. you know We said, don't trust Hungary. They couldn't be trusted. ah Switzerland and Denmark. You don't get any points for picking. So that's what I'm saying. i I don't want any points for that. That's yeah not you. if you're taking But just like general person listening to this podcast is like, oh man, switch a little. it done' No, like they're fine.
Euro Group Stage Takeaways: Third-Place Teams - Benefit or Burden?
00:01:36
Speaker
All right. On today's show, we're going to take some big takeaways from the eu group stage. We'll quick lighting around the games that we saw and we'll go into a round of 16 preview. We had a lot to get to today. but This is the World Cup after our podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malek.
00:01:51
Speaker
um Big takeaways from the Eurogroup stage, Amit. 16 teams go through. The big format question is, does third place teams going through some of them make for a better or worse tournament? That's a great question. And we've talked about it a little bit before. And I think i think we're both like purists of half the teams go through, half the teams don't. And I think it leads to the better teams having to earn it for sure. You can't like sleepwalk your way through. There's a lot more margin for error. But in a situation like this where you have 24 teams and a lot of them are good, like good teams go home, okay teams get through and everyone's incentivized to play for more games versus when you just have two teams getting through a lot of times
00:02:48
Speaker
groups can get uninteresting on match day three versus here we we had some duds but by for the most part I'm gonna say four out of the six groups had very compelling match day threes which is a pretty good hit rate and I think in the Copa America which is using the other format and again has much more stratified teams which hurts it we might get one maybe two compelling match day threes. So that my overall takeaway is I think it's good and it fit fits for the Euros specifically because there's so many good teams.
The Drama Factor: Sustaining Tournament Excitement
00:03:24
Speaker
And so that kind of brings the question forward because for the first time at the World Cup in 2026, and this is ostensibly a World Cup podcast, we will see third place teams going through. And from my perspective, the only thing I really care about is the drama. Like I don't really care about, I like to see good teams go home. I think it's fun when good teams go home early, but I just want there to be match day three drama. I just want match day three double barrel action injected into my veins. And I think third place teams going through doesn't hurt the match day three drama. So at the end of the day, sign me up. That's all I really care about. I'm with you. I think it doesn't hurt. I do think a really good point, um, is that earlier on in the match day threes, the earlier lettered groups, uh, don't have as much information and have pressure to go. And as you get longer, there can be less drama because of the information advantage.
00:04:17
Speaker
And some of the groups, the incentive is actually to draw, which we did see here in group E, um which we'll talk about. um But I'm with you. I think overall it doesn't hurt. um do do we Do both of us, I think, still wish the World Cup was at 32 teams? I think so. But once you're at 48, you might as well be sending third place teams through. Okay. All right. I think that was my big format question.
Euro Bracket Analysis: England's Fortunate Path?
00:04:44
Speaker
The big takeaway here. It is on paper. We have one side of the bracket that is loaded and we have one side of the bracket that is, uh, Gareth Southgate's path to a major tournament final again. Yeah. I mean, England or the odds on favorites right now, not, you know, more than 50%, but.
00:05:03
Speaker
they are Their half of the bracket has Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, Austria. And the other half has France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal. And Belgium. Keep it around. And Belgium. So that's pretty lopsided, which is really fun for all of us because we're going to get some really good games. And then we're also going to get to see Garrett Southgate do his best to squander this golden opportunity. Did you change your opinion on anybody? Any of your big favorites?
Tournament Tactics: 'Suffer Ball' and Strategic Styles
00:05:36
Speaker
No. And why I think this is really interesting. The whole theme of this podcast are these top teams and what happens when they have to play suffer ball. We talk about that every podcast we get together. And I think at the end of the day, France hurt them their chances, but who is the best equipped to play the type of soccer that wins tournaments?
00:06:00
Speaker
I still think our our tears from the very first podcast, pretty, pretty accurate, right? Yeah. Yeah, I don't think of the big major teams, I feel the exactly the same I do about England. I know what game they're going to play. I think they can be fairly successful playing it. I think they're going to fall short. France can play the game that England plays and take it up a notch and have major tournament experience that England doesn't. Germany are the intriguing hosts that I feel okay about given their performances. Spain are going to do what Spain are going to do and we'll see how far it gets them.
00:06:32
Speaker
And maybe I changed my opinion a bit on Portugal. Yeah, they're good
Portugal's Performance: Strong or Struggling?
00:06:36
Speaker
for. Yeah. um but you good no Go ahead. I don't know. I don't know if it was better for the worse, right? Because I got two different portables, but I think you can probably throw out the match day three Portugal because they were through and and all that. So the the moral of the story here is I didn't change my opinion on on any of the big teams. I'm buying in the Austria hype wagon. Like, give me a, give me a coach to put behind that dark horse. I'm intrigued by what I've seen from Austria so far. Other than that, though, I think I'm pretty much where I was before the tournament on the majority of these teams. Yeah, I think the biggest shake up even going down tears was that I
Reflecting on Predictions and Surprises
00:07:13
Speaker
thought Croatia were a little bit better than Italy. Croatia are home and Italy are here. And I thought both of those teams were good. I still think they're both good, but
00:07:21
Speaker
Croatia, as we'll talk about, we said bye to them. um Everyone is about who we thought they were. And i ah the last point is that when we started, we said, of those first five or six teams we named, one of them will win. And then one team from not that group will definitely be in the semifinals. it I still feel good about that. yeah It seems like Austria is going to be that team, but maybe not. there It could be anyone in that half. I do feel like it'll come from that half. That's the England half. Sure. Well, I mean, it it has to because you have a quarter that is Romania, Netherlands, Austria, Turkey. There's big opportunities. It could be Netherlands. And that would be four big teams in the semifinal. But I'm going to hold that, whether it's Netherlands or some other team slipping up, someone not in that top six or seven is going to make a semifinal. We talked about some of the winners already of it. England are winners because of the side of the bracket that they're on. Like, I mean, it's right there. If you can't do it, if you can't do it now, when are you going to do it?
00:08:20
Speaker
Yeah, they got to make the final. They have to for them. And again, at the start, we said there's too much talent here that if they don't win, they will be disappointed. Right. And that is even further up a notch now that they have this this golden path to it to a really successful tournament. Austria are winners. they They won the group. They have themselves a decent path. It wouldn't. Would it completely shock you to see Austria playing for a Euro final? No, I i mean, ah heading into the tournament, yes. But given how everything has looked, the way they play on top of all of that, the draw. I mean, I think they'd be favored, I guess not favored, but they could really easily make a semifinal. There's no guarantee it's England. And if it is England, that's also a winnable game. So like, yeah, I mean, they I think out of anyone who's not the best five or six teams here,
00:09:17
Speaker
they're the most likely to make a final. So yeah, of course I could see it happen. Italy, I think are winners as well because look, they haven't been exactly great, but the recipe is there. They can play major tournament knockout football successfully. They can defend, they have a great goalkeeper, you take them to penalties, you don't feel super great about it. And Italy's not scared of a quarterfinal matchup with England if it gets to that, are they? No, I mean, they they definitely are. And everyone on their team. yeah Yeah. Yeah. Three years ago, they played that game. Other big winners of it. Romania, Georgia, Slovakia, Slovenia. All four of those teams were theyre around the 16. I don't think we expected that going in. Yeah, I think with the third place rule, I could have seen Slovenia like as a as a team that could have made it here.
00:10:06
Speaker
um But to get both roman ah Romania and Slovakia at the expense of Ukraine, a surprise. Georgia, a big surprise. Congrats. And that's the beauty of the Euro. yeah We get to see teams like this make knockout runs. Big losers submit. uk Ukraine, Croatia, and croot Hungary, they're losers because they're not here for various reasons. um In one sentence, what kind of went wrong for for all three of them? ah For each of them, Croatia. could not defend their three points yeah with late leads. That's unexcusable for a team that that's more than one sentence. That's the one. side you you did it It's inexcusable for a team that's supposed to be, you know, warriors and mentality warriors. Ukraine, you can't lose 3-0 to Romania.
00:10:55
Speaker
I don't know what to tell you. They had four points that should get you through. They they played well, but in that game, they didn't. so Yeah, their goal differential killed them in the end. like that's yeah They finished in fourth place on four points because they got smashed in their first game. Yeah. And maybe that goes to you know they changed their goalkeeper mid-tournament, and maybe that you can blame it all on Andre Lunan's goalkeeping in one game. Yeah, that was super interesting. I'll do Hungry for you. Hungry are not going through because they're bad. Yeah, they they left it till match day three. and they eked out a 1-0 win against another very bad Scotland team. Yeah, and then they just played the waiting game. And if while, yes, it was surprising that at the end of the day, Georgia beat Portugal on the last match day to knock you out, that's the risk that you play when you are just not particularly good and don't get any points against anybody that's not really bad like you. Yeah, while it was a fun win and a cathartic win and they did well to win, the truth of the matter is when you go first,
00:11:54
Speaker
They should have been thinking about winning that game by more goals um from the start to get themselves a better chance. And they also you know should have done more in their other games. Right. So it was goal differential in the end that left Hungary out. Slovenia drew three times, which obviously gave them a zero. Goal differential in Hungary were minus three. They played poorly against the good teams, and they only beat the bad team by one goal. Not a great recipe. Are France losers from the group stage? right I think so. i think I mean, listen, they could still win this thing. They still are the most talented team, but this was an avoidable outcome. If France win the Euro, they're going to have earned it, right? Like that much we know to be true. If they end up lifting the trophy on the final match day, it's going to be because they absolutely earned it. This is not an easy bath. No, they have just first game. Belgium is really good. Second game would be Portugal.
00:12:53
Speaker
better than you get the Spain or Germany if it's one of those two teams and it gets harder each game actually. And can they do it? Sure. But like the truth of all of this is that these knockout matches between good teams are closer to 50 50 than anyone wants to admit. Flip a coin three times in a row. It's a lot harder than getting to like flip a loaded coin twice and then flip like it's just the math here is really bad for them. Can they do it? Are they going to do it? Absolutely. You have to take advantage of your group. And they also, it's not like they, they finished second in this group because like they were outplayed by Austria. They finished second because they couldn't beat Poland. That's embarrassing.
00:13:46
Speaker
They didn't let Bobby Lewandowski get his goal though. and And that's why they're sitting in second place. All right. Lightning ground of what we saw in match day three of it. We're going to go quick here so that we can get into the round of 16. Group A, Germany one, Switzerland one. Does this make you feel better or worse about Germany? ah Better in that they continue to create chances all game. The Switzerland's a solid team. um They create a lot. They can play their soccer. then They needed a point here to ensure they finish top of the group. They got the point. um I think a little bit in the question for them, as has been the question all tournament. And I walked it back after match day two. And now I'm walking. I'm not on walking it back. Gotta play striker. And Volker got the goal to tie this game. i Listen, I think strikers, their job is to score goals. Kai Havertz is a great player.
00:14:36
Speaker
But like, player striker? i um Germany did well. They did well. I agree that I don't think this was cause for concern necessarily for Germany. I think it was good for them to be tested after having two easy matches to start. I think it was good that they responded to the test and it sets them up to play knockout round football, which is a completely different animal. Scotland nil, hungry one. This game was fascinating because it was two bad teams fighting for a chance to go through. A draw didn't help anybody, but was still the most likely result for the majority of the game. Scotland admit you could tell we're doing this calculation in their head of like, okay,
00:15:12
Speaker
The second we go forward, we're about to give up a plethora of three on two chances back the other way. So what is the latest we can possibly go forward to give ourselves a chance to try and win this and go through without giving up too many three on two chances to end up losing this match and not having any chance of going through? And at the end of the day, they got the calculation wrong because Hungary scored at the very, very end of this match. Scotland waited forever to do something in this game. Yeah, it's really fun to think about these matchday three games in game theory and chicken yeah and Scotland played chicken and lost. And it's easy in hindsight to say you got to go for it earlier, but it looks bad when you lose.
00:15:54
Speaker
I don't know. What were they supposed to do? Give up this goal earlier. its They're bad. Both these teams are bad. I'm not going to fault teams for like making their choice and sticking to it, but they got it wrong in the end. It didn't matter in the end. like Neither of these teams were very good. um Well, so like, here's the thing. the The plan for Scotland was like, we just got to get one at some point. And they had some decent chances here at the end to get one. They could have gotten one. So it you could say it worked and they just. knew But and by the time they didn't get one, the gate it didn't matter in the hungry rant, like scored at the very, very end. It's it was fun. It was fun. I'm almost sad. It didn't matter in the grand scheme, but this was like a very fascinating, like,
00:16:39
Speaker
you know, game of chicken that ended in drama. Spain be one Albania nil. Not really anything we need to discuss here. No, look, Spain's depth is really good. Some of these guys can be good subs in a big game and glad they got some minutes. And also they weren't super motivated for this because they didn't need to be and they were still better than Albania. The game that was fun in Group B, a bit Croatia won, Italy won for the second straight day, second straight match day. Croatia gave up their three points that would have eventually put them through. like You said it in the open here. If you're Croatia and your whole deal is we're veteran, we're experienced, we've done well at major tournaments, we've gotten all these great results.
00:17:20
Speaker
Like, dude, you have to see out these games. You just have to. There's really no other alternative to it. If you are winning matches in the 85th minute twice in the group stage and you come away with two points from those two games, you deserve to go home. And that, at the end of the day, is what this is all about here. Yeah. I was super not impressed with Vlachodolich, their manager. um He had lineup decisions wrong. The tactics were tough. They got carved by Spain. don't get carved by Spain open in the last 10 minutes verse Albania don't do that you know waited too long to score here and then not not even that but once they were up like you said I mean put more guys in the back line I don't know I mean some of this falls in the players who are old and slow and this is certainly the worst iteration of the Croatia generation and that's usually why at the end everything sputters out but like
00:18:16
Speaker
This team was good enough to go through. At some point, everyone gets their responsibility. Yeah, I'm with you. this is there's There's no excuses. The two goals they gave up in those games, 90 plus 5, 90 plus 8, the Italy equalizer here. which What a goal, by the way. the yeah You just can't. like the and And on top of it, both goals were like you know the other team is sending everyone they have forward, but like a guy is open in the box to shoot. like I know the guy in Italy was on the end of the line, but like can't you can't let the guys be open in the box. Midfielders have to track back. I know, okay, defend with five, defend with six, but if they have seven, it doesn't mean you don't get to mark them. like Bring another guy.
00:19:03
Speaker
Yeah, it was bad. It was bad for Croatian. I'm not super displeased that they're out because they kind of deserve it for for what they did. Group C admit this actually happened after Group D, but we're going in alphabetical order. Oh, boy. England, nil. Slovenia, nil. Denmark, nil. Serbia, nil. um Okay. This game, this group needed Serbia to score to make anyone do anything interesting. At Serbia, we're not good enough to score. Which at the end of the day is the story of the group Serbia as we thought were not very good Credit to Slovenia for getting through they defended really well here Credit to Slovenia they got the result they needed to get to go through it's a massive performance for them to make the round of 16
00:19:51
Speaker
like you have to expect a little bit more from England here they didn't really test Slovenia like they didn't make a look for it this wasn't Brazil Costa Rica that we saw the other night in the Copa America Costa Rica had to work and and get lucky for their little job so we didn't really have to work for this yeah I think this is Southgate again I mean he wants these games to be 0.5 to 1 XG. I'm i sure he would want his team to create a lot of chances, but he does not want to risk numbers forward. And let's be honest, England's defensive record is very, very good. Is it not? yeah i mean oh for sure they They play a very constrictive game plan. They have Declan Rice, maybe the best center defensive midfielder in the world.
00:20:43
Speaker
They have John Stones, a Man City Central back. Gay he is good. Kyle Walker is one of the fastest right backs of the world. They also commit to attacking with very few players. like they just they They're playing suffer ball on the group stage. i mean like they This is the soccer that works for them and has always worked for them. But it's like, Gareth, it's the group stage. You don't need to play this. Like, your players are good enough that you could- You're better than them. You're better than them. You're better than them. I mean, yeah, look, the issues run deep. I mean, Phil Foden has not worked. He got Trent out, put in Gallagher. Gallagher didn't. Or, no, and Manu came on halftime and looked much better because Kobe Manu thinks to go forward and like as a progressive passer. Cole Palmer came on and everything he did had intent.
00:21:35
Speaker
That's the other thing. It's not just Southgate setup is that every player gets the ball and their first instinct is to turn backwards. ah And like they're just in they're more interested in controlling the game than scoring. And that worked. I mean, what can you say? They won the group. They've gotten. He literally, we said and heading into this this whole thing, I think a big theme of this tournament is the collision course between France and England. Garrett Southgate, man. Playing chess, not checkers. You got to show up. You got to get in the car. Deschamps is in a different race with faster cars. He's like, listen, Southgate is literally like the embodiment of the punt, man. He's like, you beat me. You beat me. You can't. I'm not beating myself. And then look what happens every time. But like, somebody beats him, right? At the end of the day, somebody ends up beating him. At the end of the day, somebody beats him.
00:22:33
Speaker
as frustrating as this is, and it is frustrating, and it's ugly, and it's anti-football, and I think it invites all of the score and it deserves because they haven't won. But at the same time, like she this is what they want, is to induce as little chaos as possible. That's why they're enemies of the show. Because this show, what we want is to induce as much chaos as we want. We said it earlier a bit. This group, this group particularly in the last minute, needed Serbia to score. Denmark weren't going to do anything until Serbia scored. At the end of the day, the difference between Denmark and Slovenia in this group was one extra yellow card. Denmark minus six disciplinary points. Slovenia minus seven disciplinary points. Because they just played out draws, and they both scored a couple goals and gave up a couple goals.
00:23:18
Speaker
If Serbia do something more, we get a little bit more here, but they didn't. And so that didn't motivate anybody else to do anything. Yeah. England's only goal they conceded was a 25 yard shot from distance that was screened for Jordan Pickford. Like, they gave up no chances the entire time. Anyways, Denmark also played nothing ball for three games. It's like, good job, guys. Yeah, this was just not a great group to watch. A great group to watch, however, was the one we're going to talk about next. Group D, Austria 3, Netherlands 2. The Dark Horse is out of the stable and running wild. This game was back and forth. There was emotions. And Austria just kept coming at the Netherlands, and it paid off for them in the end. Like, they didn't just settle for their result at any point in this game? Yeah, I think their midfield outplayed France and Netherlands, two of the better teams of the tournament in two games. We had said, I had said, like I think their midfield was better, but I didn't think they'd win. want like I thought you know maybe they'd get a point and finish third. like As much as I'm happy, you know dark horses are great, but I'll be honest, like who who saw this coming? They outplayed Netherlands, and Netherlands played well. This was a very good game, I think.
00:24:31
Speaker
you saw and the quality netherlands attackers have austere gave them space if you give gakpo space on the counter he scores you know they scored a goal they hit it to leg horse's head he knocks it down to the pie great goal like netherlands are quality too but at the end of the day Austria lived with that and still played their style. Their midfield wins the ball. They drive forward. They cross from the end line. They shot from the end line. Sabretzer's goal. I mean, this this is really, really fun stuff. I mean, i don't I don't know what else to say. Like, super impressed the way they've approached this tournament. It's refreshing. It's unique. um And now they've earned themselves a winnable draw.
00:25:14
Speaker
Yeah. Netherlands, I think are pretty good. Like this was a, yeah yeah was for me, this result was more about Austria being good than it was about the Netherlands playing poorly. They came back in Austria twice. What they can do with without van course, like it's insane, man. He's you not that good, but it's just, it's this plan B 20 minutes. We're going to lump the ball up to him. He's great at holding it up. We have the players who can run off and maybe he'll score himself. It's really hard for teams to adjust when he comes in and we've seen it repeatedly. Yeah, I just think in ah any game state where the Netherlands need a goal, I mean, I wouldn't sub them on if you're up one, but if you're right needing a goal or tied, it's really hard to defend. You put the ball like within five yards of him or 10 yards of him and enough air time, he's gonna win it. And then they know to run off it. And also,
00:26:05
Speaker
In game states where he's on, the other team is pinned back. You don't want to be open. You're not going to play an open game. um So he's just, I mean, he's the best plan B in the tournament. I mean, other than, I mean, England subs don't do anything. France, I think, Kolo Moani is a really good player, but like no singular sub has the impact that veg horse does. That is a fact at this point. It is. So they're never out of a game. I think Ronald Komen can, can catch some flack sometimes. And I don't think he's a great manager, but he knows his team. You know, he he made a change of the 35th minute and an immediately result of them, not immediately, but they tied the game after halftime. I think he knows his team. They don't have a midfield. They have good attackers. They have good defenders. Um, they're a tough out.
00:26:58
Speaker
other game in this group killing Mbappe with the mask on, got his penalty and scored it. Robert Lewandowski who had been hurt for the first two games also got his penalty and scored it. This was an incredible moment, the Lewandowski penalty. like I loved it because he did this stupid janky stutter three times run up. And then the goalie comes off his line, which like this is a whole different discussion. But if you're going to do that, right I saw this opinion somewhere and I completely agree with it. If you're going to do the run up where you're stopping and stuttering, you lose the ability for the goalie to have to stay on his line. Like the second you change your speed, like that is such a massive advantage for an attacker who already has so many advantages in a penalty. Anyway, so Lewandowski does this run up.
00:27:41
Speaker
Literally, as he kicks the ball, he's like raising his hand to complain that the goal is off his line, VAR intervenes, gives him the penalty again, he takes it, makes it. The short, the long story short, that goal was absolutely massive because it sent France to the bad side of the bracket and Didier de Champs kind of got caught out here. Yeah, they got what they deserved. I mean, they played fine, but they got to score their chances. They got to create more chances. It's we had said there's issues with France's ball progression. They have a finishing issue outside of Mbappe. Poland are not bad. They have acquitted themselves fine. I still think when push comes to shove, France can get their best 11 on the field and play suffer ball better than anyone else.
00:28:26
Speaker
but um They need Mbappe to be at a very high level. That is when France really works. That's when all of this concoction that they're cooking comes together. And so if whatever is going on with the mask and the face and the nose, if that makes killing Mbappe not high level killing Mbappe, I think France can be in trouble. But as we saw in the World Cup Final, you know, Mbappe is a game changer. He's probably the best player active right now. When that guy is on his day, it's impossible. It's so hard to stop it. Yeah. it's
00:28:57
Speaker
I agree with you completely. It's not reductive to say it comes down to him. I do think that's their team. Their team is built for him to like really shoulder the load and for everyone else to support him. If everyone else was playing better, I think you'd see more from Griezmann and Dembele. Can they step up, those players? They could also step up. But until they do, like yeah, it's on the one guy. um But the we'll see. We'll see. We're going to talk about them versus Belgium later. It's it's just interesting. Groupie a bit quickly. Slovakia won, Romania won. This was the game that we had both circled for. A draw is very clearly the best result for these two teams. But do they know it? And will they actually be able to execute it? And there were moments in which Romania was just like, nah, man, we don't care. if We're going to go score and play. There was way too much football in this game for a result where a draw was unquestionably a massive result for each side.
00:29:50
Speaker
he had both teams just like looked like they were trying to out score the other with numbers. And I was like, but wait, would you set numbers the other like, the other day like, this was bad. And then, and they eventually, you know, quieted things down by the end of the game. They figured it out or they, or they knew the whole time, but the first half they, they don't know if either team got the memo, was acting like it. was again There was a bit too much going on there, but and you kind of I kind of get it from a Romania's perspective, because they ended up winning this group, because they had more goals scored than Belgium did. The other game of it, Belgium nil, Ukraine nil. This was another classic game theory game of, at what point do Ukraine send people forward? Will it be enough? Probably Lukaku, man. The dude is working hard. He's getting his chances, and he's just not finishing them at a high rate. He didn't do that here again.
00:30:38
Speaker
Ukraine had a couple of chances, but they probably didn't do enough to have deserved to score any of them, did they? The one where the guy dribbled through everyone and then couldn't get a shot in the corner. Did the hard part. Did the hard part. I'm with you. I think they showed respect to Belgium, who De Bruyne and company maybe earned it, but have earned it. but i Yeah, we watch them do the math in real time. They wait till the 70th minute. What? They got three, four, half chances, one pretty good chance. It didn't score it. That's not enough. And at the end of the day, we send one sentence. It didn't have to be like this if they didn't ship three to Romania. But um yeah the they had the good game plan here. They survived 70 minutes. They got attacked and they got chances. But like yeah, it doesn't guarantee that you have the right plan and it works. um They had to beat them and they didn't. so
00:31:32
Speaker
It's disappointing for Ukraine. This this was this was doable. But um yeah, I don't know. Belgium's not very good either. like They were very beatable here. They didn't play well today. They played better in the game they lost than the other game they won. like Yeah, I don't know. Last group quickly, Amit. Maybe not so quickly. Georgia two, Portugal nil. Look, I get it. Portugal had nothing to play for. They'd already won the group. There was no result that was gonna end up with them in anything but first. But this is the peak Christian Ronaldo gets his goals game, right? Like this is when it's the pads, the stats, he puts them in the back of the net. And Amit, he didn't do that here. He didn't do anything. He went off with a yellow card for complaining and mad. So there's one of two things happening here.
00:32:20
Speaker
Option one, Cristiano Ronaldo is actually washed. Option number two, we're building up to the biggest Cristiano Ronaldo SEW celebration in the history of Cristiano Ronaldo SEW celebrations. As much as I want to say he's bad, Austin, I don't think he's still got it. I think we're due. I think he's due. He's got to score one of these, right? The question is, what's he going to score? It's either going to be a worldly, or the ball is just going to be sitting on the goal line, and he's just going to tap it in with the littlest of taps, and then we're going to get the massive celebration. He needs one good cross to his head. He's even he's gotten a few, but I mean, yeah, he's he's got a score, right? like I don't think they're subbing him off yet, or not starting him yet. I think they're going to keep rolling him out.
00:33:08
Speaker
All right. So we've buried the lead here. We spent way too much time talking about Cristiano Ronaldo, Georgia. What the heck? Where'd this come from? I think they just got some chaos. I think Portugal didn't care about this game. Most of the side was rotated. I mean, as happy as I am for Georgia who deserve this by all means, this was the perfect concoction for them to get through getting a Portugal side kind of half rotated. on match day three and kind of just snake bitten a little bit. Well done. I mean, cra super well done, but like also like it broke well. Great scenes. Fantastic scene. The celebrations were so cool. I'm i'm very pleased for Georgia. The other game of it also gave us some great scenes. Turkey 2, Czech Republic 1, this was nonstop. The Czech Republic probably have some cases here with the way that this game was officiated.
00:34:02
Speaker
Tough pair of yellow cards end up in a red card. They still kind of outplayed Turkey, who just really can't defend. Sucek equalized for the Czech Republic, but they needed to go get another goal that would have been sent Turkey out. And then that led to them being wide open and Turkey got an empty net goal to win this. oh This was fun. This was fun. This is what you want. This was super fun. And as bad as Turkey was defending and ultimately not that good of a team, credit to them for just like, you got to live with some chances the other way. You just have to. And you got to try to score score yours. And they did eventually, at the very end, they survived a poor performance and up a man not even playing well. They survived. And that's well that's what that's what counts. um They can attack too. And they are committed to running with numbers when they get the ball. And if you commit hard, you will get chances.
00:35:00
Speaker
So they, they, this was super fun and that both teams kept going at each other. I feel for the Czech Republic. I do. I don't think they're particularly good, but I, they deserved more given the way they performed against Turkey. um goal like a breakoff man The goal that got chopped off was really tough because in this whole era of wait and see, wait and see, we'll fix it with far, wait and see, we'll fix it with far. They didn't do that. And if they would have, they could help them. Yeah, there's like three or four just things the the the Czech Republic could have pointed to like other factors that didn't go their way. its It's not great for them. Tough breaks, but like they weren't good enough that I feel horrible. It's like, okay, you you had I feel a little bad.
00:35:49
Speaker
Sure, no, I mean, at the end of the day, like it's not like they were this incredible team over three match days. They played some pretty bad football, but they had a chance at the end. All right, let's move to the round of 16 a minute. Let's talk about the eight games that we're going to get. We can dive deep on some of these. We can go quickly on others. Switzerland, Italy, two defensively minded teams. This kind of feels like it's going to go to penalties. Can I say that already? Yeah, I think the pressure is on Italy to attack because Switzerland knows they're a little worse on talent. Italy are also very defensive minded. That just leads to caginess. The issue is Italy, the pressure's on them to attack, but they don't have great attackers. um They've struggled with their striker selection. They had Skamaka, then they put in, Retagie and Raspidoria and Napoli, and they had two strikers. There was a lot more movement.
00:36:43
Speaker
They played better against Croatia, but they couldn't score um either. And i you know i this is just a really cagey game, it looks like. I do think you know Italy has the set piece advantage. They have the mentality advantage. They have a great goalkeeper. But Italy shouldn't try to go to pens. They should do everything in their power to score. Switzerland are going to be super opportunistic. They're going to use their long balls. They have, I don't know who they're going to start at striker, but all of their guys are going to be good at chasing down long balls.
00:37:15
Speaker
Italy's defensive shape can help control the game too. you know They're very good. ah We've seen that multiple times. Look, Spain carved them. But if you're not Spain, like they're going to defend you very well. um So yeah, I could see this being a 1-0 for Italy. um But it could be 0-0. It's a PC, right? It does. It feels pretty grimy. And I just think you know Italy won a Euro the last time playing super ugly, grimy stuff. I don't know why that's going to change now. um They're ready to sweat from the beginning. Switzerland also took out a really good France team at that Euro. So there's some pedigree on both these ads. I think this is this is a good opener to the round of 16 because it's not going to give you a ton of action. But there's going to be enough tension and drama that yeah you can live with it as far as this game is concerned. Yeah, I think you're going to feel the vibe shift to the knockouts the second this match kicks off. Yeah, which is good. And and look, Switzerland
00:38:09
Speaker
They have quality too. um they've they've got They can cross. They've got strikers who are physical. Italy's center backs are great. This is going to be a good little chess match. See how it plays out. See what the managers can do subs. Italy has a little more subs. I thought they that was one thing they can do now. Shaqiri. Shaqiri. It's a sack game. No? Yeah. I mean, if you need someone to steal a low-XG goal from distance, there's one man. You can call. Well, set-piece delivery. Well, free kick action. You never know. Call the Chicago Fire guy. This is fun. This will be fun. yeah Yeah. I agree with you. I'm not like super duper excited for this game because I think it's going to be very grimy, but I think there's going to be enough tension that I can buy it. Germany, Denmark. i I'm interested to see Denmark do something. We haven't really seen them do anything and they might have to do that here.
00:39:01
Speaker
Yeah, I think they're going to play a similar style. They're going to make Germany come at them. They're going to have to be careful not to just sit sit back. They've really got to give a threat the other way. um The big question has always been can Germany defend? Oh, I thought you were going for the big question as always is the home field advantage. all it hums Home soil boost. I mean, I think that matters for sure. I think Germany is going to have the crowd behind them. Germany have been the second best attacking team here, I think, a little bit better than Portugal, not as good as Spain. um They're going to have to batter down Denmark who are going to defend with numbers, but they should. They should be silky. They should you know get those silky interchanges going, off the all the passes. I think they need Fulcrum. I don't know if he's going to sub or start. I mean, i I would say you want him more of the game, but
00:39:53
Speaker
They need someone to be able to cross the ball to um and just stand there because I think Denmark are going to defend pretty deep. This is a pretty classic. One team is better than the other and going to control it, but the other team is just dangerous enough. And I think the longer it goes, Denmark are going to really lean into that um sweatiness. So yeah, I mean and think this is going to be a good test for Germany. I do think they should get through comfortably, but yeah I don't know. Denmark have done this before. like Like we've said, they're, again, another dark horse candidate. They've they've made a semifinal in a Euro. like They can do it. So um it's it's not an easy game for Germany. Early goal for Germany would obviously completely throw this game on its head and and change everything. And that is what I think they will be shooting for here. Get the switiness out of the way early. Score and make Denmark yeah become play. And then then you can really control the tempo. I think with the crowd, too, really strong first 15 is what you should expect from Germany. yeah
00:40:51
Speaker
Oh baby, Sunday, England, Slovakia. You seen this one before a bit? This is just another opportunity for Southgate to do the exact same ugly game. it's this is I'm not excited for this. This game, the discourse from every England game gets worse. That's what it's going to be. It's going to be Gary Southgate trying to play 0.7 to 0.2 football. And if it gets the extra time, it might get to one and see what happens. Look, Sulaki are not going to try and offer anything until they have to in this game. And I think that's completely understandable. Can you get a massive goal-keeping performance from Dubrovka, something like that?
00:41:33
Speaker
had England actually break somebody down, which they haven't really done at this tournament yet. They scored early i in a game against Serbia, and they scored early in a game against Denmark. But other than that, they've scored two goals so far in three games. The pressure's on. Slovakia are not that good. right Belgium carved them for chances, and Romelu Lukaku literally missed three. Ukraine went down a goal, and Slovakia could not see it out. Their lines were constantly being broken by Ukraine's decent passing, and then a really nice ball over the top. If England commit to any type of like normal attacking soccer, this should be fine. The issue is they just don't. So like who is going to come be the attacking playmaker for England in this game?
00:42:24
Speaker
If you give Harry Kane the chances that Belgium created for Roma Lukaku against Slovakia, how many does he score? Oh, I mean, he should score too, but... Enough, right? Yeah, but they... Are they creating those chances Belgium did? It was easy for Belgium. I thought Belgium played well other than not scoring, but like... I don't know. This England team, like, are are you convinced that they'll show up this time in attack? Um, yes, actually. I think I, like, I think, so I think Slovakia are pretty bad. I don't think, I don't think England have played a team like England aren't going to run out four nil winners here, but I do think England can score early and just murder the rest of this game because like, I think England can score an early goal like they did against Serbia. And then they can basically just pass the ball around their back line and say to Slovakia, like, Hey, come, come get us.
00:43:17
Speaker
And then that went into bed you get the second as soon as they open themselves. up Yeah, no, I think that's also how I would see it going. But they got to get that first one. They got to at least sell out a little bit for it. Let's see the lineup, I think. um You know, you could play Trent at right back in this game. Why are you playing Walker against Slovakia? If you want to, if you want to get him in and pass, um we'll see how the front four looks. And England has so many changes off the bench. Yeah, it's hard to see this working other than. You just, you can't play scared of Slovakia. Slovakia are just, they're not good enough to make you play scared of them if you're England. Like, just go for it. Get this over with early. Don't mess around and not score and do what's lot like. No, just, I think England, I actually feel pretty confident in England to have a pretty standard, easy get through win here. And I think their, their complications might come later on in this tournament.
00:44:13
Speaker
Spain, Georgia, is there any hope for Georgia in this game? Not really. They're just not that good. Their goalkeeper's been really, really good. Marley has made really, really good saves. If you're building the Georgia pull off the upset kind of route to this game, it's the low block, tons of guys behind the ball, Spain pass around it, but never through it. Goalkeeper makes good saves and Georgia find one back the other way with Carver Chelia and the the guy who's been taking the penalties and and scoring goals. That's Georgia's path to win here. I don't think they can pull it off.
00:44:50
Speaker
Yeah, I think part of what helped them be Portugal is they literally caught them by surprise and got to play a 1-0 game the rest of the way. right That's not happening in a round of 16 against Spain. um Yeah, they there's there's a recipe in Spain have fallen out of major tournaments in early rounds in the past couple of generations because of you know, the passing thing, but they've got verticality. They've got dribblers and also, you know, push comes a shove. They can take shots from distance. Um, we saw Fabio Ruiz do it. We know Roger. He can do it. The guide saves man city season, like once every two months, like there's too much here for me, even on a bad Spain day and a good Georgia day.
00:45:34
Speaker
for Spain still not to pull it out. But yeah, is it 100% or is that the path that you described? Yeah, then they're going to play for that path. But Spain looked really good. So i'd be I'd be surprised if they look off the, they also rotated. Their guys are fresh. Like I'd be surprised if they if they weren't ready to just come out and end this thing quickly. They have a pretty significant rest advantage as well. Not only did they rest, but Georgia had to play on on Wednesday and have to come back on Sunday. That's a big advantage to Spain. Georgia's entire game plan here is to try and get Kamechile running at the Spain outside backs, right? like Yeah. Any way against anybody, but that's what that's their recipe here. Yeah. And and listen, he's good at that. And you come double him, then everything else opens up um or maybe you try to keep it on one side and swing it to him. So he's one on one with Carval and actually gets to cook and cross. But um listen, Spain, Spain are also tactically very, very sharp. I don't think they're going to come in and say, we're going to let Kavar Scalia beat us.
00:46:30
Speaker
Right, sure. Moving on to Monday a minute. France, Belgium, round of 16. This is good. This is good. I'm excited for this one. Yeah, Belgium have not been good. And the talent overall is not good, comparatively. But there's just enough talent and France have not looked so good that this couldn't be a game. And I think Tedesco is generally a stubborn manager, but like, I don't think he's going to show up and try to like take France head on. I think he's going to see the way they've played and been like, all right, we're going to make them work. We're going to hit them on the counter. De Bruyne is going to hit long balls over the top. Hopefully he gets Doku in there and then maybe sits Trossard and tries to use runners to hurt France. I mean, make them sweat. France sweat against. Netherlands didn't score. Couldn't get more against Poland.
00:47:27
Speaker
I think Belgium have to follow that strategy and make this a ah pretty sweaty game. They're not gonna have a lot in the midfield and also their back line is slow. They'd be very silly to show up and try to battle France on equal equal footing. The issue for Belgium is this type of game leads, like if Belgium are to win this game, it's probably because they take their chances. You're probably not going to create a ton. France don't let you create a ton. That's the entirety of their style. You kind of have to play into that to let France kind of play themselves into standstill and then get out and take your two or three chances.
00:48:02
Speaker
You know what Belgium have not done at any point in the last bajillion major tournaments? It take their chances with any sort of regularity. That is the big concern here for them. This is not the game where Ramu Lukaku is going to get seven chances to win. He's going to get one and a half chances, two chances, one good one, couple of half chances. You have to take one of them, and he's probably not going to be able to do it. Yeah, i you described it perfectly, and I He's really due to score one, so maybe he looks into scoring the first one. um Or Tedesco considers starting someone else. amy Maybe. Maybe Lois Appenda. I mean, that'd be a big shock, but that guy's very, very fast and a total game changer to go over the top. Lukaku still runs in behind well. I mean, you watch him play like the guy's a freight train.
00:48:50
Speaker
Yeah, he's so good at making the striker runs, and he just he doesn't score him. Let's see, let's see. I mean, I don't want to talk myself too into Belgium, because they're like the implosion masters. But like, as you said, if you get France to play to a standstill, make them sweat, like, there's an answer there's an answer here. I mean, I think France, to me, it's either Mbappe needs to do the best player in the world. Yeah, he scores a worldly goal or in like one moment of chaos, he sees it and that's what he does. Or you need a very good game from Antoine Griezmann. You need a 30 minute super sub. Olivier Giroux is, you know, heading in crosses or Dembele is consistently beating his wing back ah over and over. Otherwise, yeah, this could get ugly being a zero zero long game type of thing.
00:49:45
Speaker
I just don't know that Belgium have what it, I don't think Belgium with the right matchup to be able to do that against Brandt. I agree that that's what they need to try to do. but Yeah, they're not the right team. But like, I don't trust Belgium's back line to hold up for that long. Eventually at some point they're going to do something wrong and Mbappe is going to be good enough to make them pay. Tricky little round of 16 match up Portugal Slovenia a bit. The defensive masters of Slovenia. You know what the game plan is going to be here. Uh, sesco might have a couple of chances back the other way. He likes the look of pet by there on the other end. Portugal are getting a little frustrated. Slovenia frustrated England. I could see this getting interesting. So can I, I think Slovenia are well equipped.
00:50:30
Speaker
to defend Portugal and attack Portugal, which is how you have to play them. You have to attack their back line. They are not stout back there. They want to keep the ball and use it so you don't get to touch it. But if you attack their back line with numbers, I think there's stuff to be had. I think there are. The issue is, yes, Slovenia defended England, but it was Southgate's attack with less England. Right. Portugal do not attack with less. Bobby Martinez is getting nine guys involved in the attack. And they're going to pass you down every which little way and angle and walk you back into your box before you know you crumble. So if Slovenia are really disciplined here, yes, they can do this. I just, Ronaldo's do. And and the quality for Portugal's ballplayers, dribblers, crossers,
00:51:25
Speaker
they should be able to do a lot more than England, right? Yeah, the thing, so I think Slovenia need to not be afraid to run the other way here. yeah Yeah. They have to be stout defensively. They have to be organized. You can't let Portugal just pass through you, but Portugal are going to give you opportunities to go the other way. I don't think Slovenia need to be scared of that. I think they need to go for it. ah Look, they don't need to sell out. They don't need to throw a bunch of numbers forward. But when they're given the opportunity to put themselves in a two on three situation the other way, don't just lump it far and regroup. Go for it. See what you can get. That Portugal backline is begging you. They're just going to give you a mistake at some point. Take advantage of it. Yeah. Yeah. And yes. Will, if sometimes you sell out, you give them a few chances the other way? Yeah. But like you said, that's what you can't be scared of.
00:52:13
Speaker
um And be selective, too. Sesko's also do himself. You know, a lot of good shots. You know, he's going to get one of those. um Will this be the way we yeah will this be close? I think there's probably not. But are there plenty of scenarios where Slovenia makes us a game? Yes. Yes. Ronaldo, 87th minute, tap in, Siyu brings the house down, Portugal 1, Slovenia 0, you heard it here first. Romania, Netherlands, Amit. Romania hurt very good, but they somehow beat Ukraine 3-0, and that's got them into the Round of 16. The Netherlands are significantly better here, but Romania won their group. Can we make a case for Romania? Of course we can. I think they've got a better chance than Georgia.
00:53:00
Speaker
I wouldn't say they have a better chance in Slovenia or even Slovakia. They're worse than those two teams. And the Netherlands, while not as good as maybe Portugal or England, they are no strangers to how to win a knockout football. you know Ronald Komen knows what he's doing, he makes changes, and they've got Veghorse too. So even if you're up one late, nothing's safe. I just think Netherlands are super sweaty. I know they're not the A plus contender, but part of what makes them good is they're very good at these kinds of games and just kind of... you know ringing you out. What does Romania have to offer here other than getting lucky on a shot from distance? a Bunch of potshots from distance is going to be my answer to you. That's what they have to offer. That's what they've offered this tournament is their ability to score low XG chances at some point that generally runs out and that point kind of feels like it's going to be the round of 16.
00:53:57
Speaker
And like you said, even if they do somehow find themselves in a position where they're up a goal late, I still wouldn't feel super great about it because the Netherlands are really good at playing from a goal down. But you saw what it took to knock the Netherlands out of the last World Cup, right? Like it Argentina were two goals up, home and hosed. And it took so much to still win that match. I don't think Romania have what it takes to to be able to pull that off here. Yeah, if anything, they're better like getting to zero, zero and penalties and almost I guess you could be up one zero in the Netherlands forces. penalty like But even at that point, like the other ones at some point are going to bring back like in a new little game, 70th minute, I think you bring back horse on and you just say, all right, yeah some time we're we're getting this done. we're We're going. Yeah, yeah, it's it's hard. It's hard for Romania to find a path here, I think. Yeah, maybe a little bit better than Georgia, but I think the second biggest underdogs of the of the round.
00:54:52
Speaker
One game that will not feature two teams bunkering, playing low event football is the last game of the round of 16. Austria, Turkey, we're going out with a bag of it. Yeah, these are two teams that just want to attack, want to run with numbers forward. um One of them is going to be better than it the other, but this is super fun. Turkey are probably in trouble here because of the whole can't defend thing. Yeah, I mean, We just said they're going to run at each other. If I were Turkey, I'd think real hard about trying something else. But like that's not how they got here. What is the something else they can do? Yeah, so I think both teams, if
00:55:28
Speaker
if If you take out the round of 16 and the stakes and all of that, both teams would tell you, oh, the other team's gonna commit with numbers? Well, when we get the ball and we commit with numbers, we're gonna have chances. And both teams thinking that is how you get a really good game. pendulum babies back and forth Yeah, who is more inclined to respect the other team more? It's Turkey. But will they? And again, you know, being up one, neither team is going to be great at defending. So I think the game state also stays fun, even up to two, I mean, forever because it's a knockout game. But yeah, I think this is, this is gott hopefully be really good. I think Turkey even backing off to play Austria, you could say, Oh, that's smart, the respect, but then they'll have nothing going forward and Austria just keep coming at you. So yeah.
00:56:19
Speaker
I think this comes down to Austria a bit better than Turkey, but if Turkey finishes their chances first and better on slightly lower XG, then yeah, you can talk themselves into it. So what gave Austria trouble against the Netherlands? Yeah, it's exactly what we said is when they lost the ball, Netherlands, even with 50, 60 yards to go, if they had a five on four, they took advantage. And Turkey, soon as they win the ball, are going for five, six, seven guys forward. So yeah, be opportunistic. don't They're not afraid to go forward, but make them pay. Make Austria pay.
00:56:55
Speaker
This is gonna be fun because like you said, I don't think there's really any point at this game that you'll feel safe about the result until it gets to be like 3-0 in somebody's favor because Turkey have shown they can't really hold on to a lead. This is gonna be fun. There's gonna be chances flying both ways. i I'm here for it. Got the popcorn. ah You wanna do picks? Oh, um, I would honestly, I would straight up pick eight favorites in this round. The one favorite I would not pick is Italy, Switzerland. And even then I know it's not going to be chalk, but like in good conscience, I'm taking eight favorites sure if I have to. And you're going to go seven of eight, right? Like the odds. I'll take my, I'll take my loss where it comes. And yeah, I mean, I think the biggest chances for upsets are Denmark, Switzerland,
00:57:42
Speaker
Yeah, I think I agree with you. Yeah, I think I agree with you. Going forward, are you sticking with your pick to win the tournament from the start? I mean, what did I pick? Did I pick Germany over England or England over Germany? You did not pick England. I can promise you that much. Yeah, I think we'll get, I'll stick with Germany. Oh, we've talked themselves out of it. If it wasn't England, I would pick them to win, but they're England and I can't. So I'll stick with Germany over England in the final. um I still think Germany have some issues, but everyone's flawed here. Everyone's flawed here. um So yeah.
00:58:23
Speaker
I picked Portugal before this tournament started. I will feel super great about it. I got a bad-ish feeling about this Portugal-Sloveni game. Like, am I really about to trust Big Bobby Martinez going into a knockout round game? And we need it if they do get passed out one. I have this France feeling. I think this might be the tournament France put it all together. So if I... if you on could harness them I think the gauntlet is going to make them earn it. And I think that's maybe what France need here. And after having come so close to the World Cup, I think, so if you make me stick with my Portugal pick, I completely respect that. And I stick with my Portugal pick from allowed to change midstream. I'm going with France here. Okay. I, I like it. This is a super open tournament. I think,
00:59:08
Speaker
Hopefully we get the blockbuster games, and we'll find out a lot. And the games are good games and not decided by stupid things. I think the games will be decided by stupid things, because that's how knockout tournament football works. All right, this is the World Cup After Dark podcast. Thank you, as always, for listening. If you like what we do, you can rate, review, subscribe, press all the good buttons. And if you'd like to support us monetarily, you can do that at patreon dot.com slash WCAD. $3 a month gets you access to exclusive shows like our Copa America Match Day 2 recap, which will be coming out this weekend, gets you access to a ton of other World Cup qualifying content. There was an Asian World Cup qualifying draw very, very early this morning. We did not wake up for it, but we were excited by the results. We'll have more on that on a future show. But again, rate, review, subscribe, do all the good stuff, and we'll be back soon. Thanks for listening.