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WCAD 3-19: Euro Round of 16 Recap + Quarterfinal Prevew
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Austin and Amit come together to talk about all the scenes from the Euro Round of 16, from England's late winner to Ronaldo's cinematic masterpiece and Austria and Turkey's closing match treat. Then the guys get excited for a loaded slate of Quarterfinal matches headlined by Spain-Germany on Friday.
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Transcript
European Tournament Upsets
00:00:01
Speaker
We welcome you into a very somber edition of the World Cup After Dark podcast today because it has come to pass, Amit, that the dark horses are gone in Europe. Are you okay, man? I'm all right. ah Listen, if a Dark Horse is going to go out the way Austria did, and we're recording minutes after Austria won Turkey 2, went out in a blaze of glory. Can't ask for more. They were the most entertaining team here at this tournament, and they gave us a banger. What a game. And yeah, it was a great way to to cap off the Round of 16. Good news. Dark Horse is still alive in the Code of America. We'll get to that in a different show. We're still fine.
00:00:41
Speaker
right yeah yeah tune in tune in for our next podcast to listen to this one this one will be good but ah if you want our ah Venezuela Mexico United States takes and those are good takes don't don't get it twisted we've got some good ones for you ah be sure to listen to that show as well but um You know, this is the Euro show. So that's it. That's it. Just your teams. All right. A bit round of 16 big Euro podcast takeaways. Um, eight favorites. I don't think there was necessarily a favorite in the Italy, Switzerland game. So we can safely say six favorites went through Turkey was an upset. Italy, Switzerland probably wasn't an upset. This is kind of what happens in major international tournaments, right? You get the fun stuff, the fun stories. They make a run in the knockout round and then the big hitters come out swing.
00:01:27
Speaker
Yeah, and we saw two games that were really close to being upset. yeah ah Slovenia were a minute away from taking out England. Slovakia were a minute away from taking out England and Slovenia were penalty kicks away from taking out Portugal if the penalty kicks actually turned out not to be that close. But um I do think on our preview podcast we had a very good handle on what games would be competitive, what games wouldn't be. um As we said, Switzerland, and Italy, probably pretty close to a toss-up, and yeah. It actually wasn't, because Switzerland was that much better. yeah Let's yeah start there a
Switzerland's Tactical Triumphs
00:02:05
Speaker
minute. We're going to go through these round of 16 games. We'll circle back and preview the quarterfinals at the end. This kicked off with Switzerland 2, Italy 0. Switzerland were pretty much the better team here.
00:02:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. um Italy are situationally good. They're very good at defending. They're very good at controlling the game and pressing. And they have a good goalkeeper, but they're just built to play 0-0 and 1-0. They're just simply not as good of a team when they have to attack. And we've said that about them this whole tournament. you know, had attacking issues, creative issues, finishing issues. um And Switzerland, we've also said just kind of the default dark horse. I don't even want to call them a dark horse because like, they can do this in any tournament if you let them do it. And they're just pretty, they're pretty good, right? I think they're pretty good. Yeah, there's not a lot to say about them. Like,
00:02:58
Speaker
There's nobody on their team that's going to super duper impress you. There's nobody on their team that's going to be like, oh, that guy's the weak link. They're just kind of your bog standard middle tier European national team that should make quarterfinals at the Euro and make the round of 16 at the World Cup. And that's what they do. Exactly. And they're adaptable. They can defend. They can do everything decent. And like you said, not any like big weaknesses. um they They also just know how to defend in numbers, as you every team here at this point in a tournament does, but they don't give you anything. They do do they do not give you anything. Germany, we saw really, really had to huff and puff to get that equalizing goal on that last day of Mass Day 3, and Italy
00:03:48
Speaker
puffed and puffed in a must win game and what'd they get? yes not really Yeah. The issue for Italy here is they come out of this tournament and the only thing they really did was they beat Albania and they equalize late against Croatia.
Italy's World Cup Concerns
00:04:02
Speaker
And that's not a super good haul for Italy from this tournament. So I want to close out on Italy here by asking you this. are you This is ostensibly a World Cup podcast. Are you worried about Italy as far as making the World Cup in 26 comes? Yeah. I think in Europe, there's always going to be a team or two that you expect to make it that doesn't make it. They quite literally have been that team. Do I think it'll be them? No. But if you told me it was them, I but i don't think either of us would be surprised. um Let's see how the group shake out in Euro qualifying. That definitely, you know, that I could tell you based on the draw who the biggest risks to drop out will be.
00:04:43
Speaker
um I think what they they do well is they they have a bunch of really solid players, and that helps them grind results out in qualifying, like show their quality over the course of games. But ah just just a lack of difference makers, I think, very clearly in the squad. So yeah, of course of course I'd be worried about them in 26. We'll check in on the draw.
Germany and Denmark: A Tale of Contrasts
00:05:04
Speaker
All right, let's move on to Germany to Denmark, nil. Good test for Germany. They got the breaks. They go through the quarterfinals. Is that kind of the storyline here? I think so. I think without the breaks, they still would have been fine. But if that goal that Denmark had called offside a couple of minutes after halftime, again, for the narrowest of margins is given.
00:05:28
Speaker
Then we're, then we get to see, you know, can Germany get that goal in and when they need it down one, not in a group stage game, but in a, your life is on the line knockout game. But Germany just were the better team overall. Denmark were opportunistic counterattacking, but Germany's passing is great. They're it's, it's gelling even better every game. I think you're seeing Musiala continue to grow on the stage as one of the best attackers in the tournament. And they're, Their passing is is is just good. like In a tournament where everyone is doing well defending in low blocks, the teams that can manipulate you into really good crossing positions and passing positions are Spain and Germany. and This didn't change my opinion of that.
00:06:16
Speaker
Yeah, yes, Germany got the brakes, but they also were good. um If anything, what you could say about Germany is they should have been more ruthless, right? This should have been 2-0 faster. This should have been 3-0 faster. um But I mean, Denmark, again, a team like Switzerland can back their way into being a dark horse. I thought the other Denmark weren't like super good here. I didn't think Denmark had a particularly good tournament. I think they were pretty toothless going forward throughout the majority of this tournament. And look, like they were organized and tough to break down in the back, but just about anybody could be organized and tough to break down in the back. I don't think that's a real redeeming quality for a team. And it wasn't like they were significantly more organized than anybody else. I think this was a pretty substandard tournament for Denmark. And the fact that they didn't really test Germany here kind of makes me believe that like, yeah, it was fine, but not really good for them.
00:07:09
Speaker
Yeah, if you had switched the Germany or the Denmark and Switzerland groups and right matchups, maybe they could have done the same thing. I think if you wanted Denmark to overachieve, they probably needed to to beat England. Again, a very takeable England, beatable England team. That game, again, played well, defended England, but as you love to say, Garrett Southgate is begging to draw them. so like yeah I'm with you. like they just They didn't offer enough and and they were fine, but to to to to do something here,
00:07:45
Speaker
they had a few different they had two kind of games you could circle where they could have done and they didn't so and they also could have couldn't they've beaten Serbia and won the group yes they could have yeah like like that's easier than beating England beat Serbia like so sure yeah just not not enough going forward for them um What I wanted to say is is you mentioned there that the two best teams at at creating pass angles, at creating chances, Germany and Spain, that's what's coming to the quarterfinals. It's Germany against Spain. That's going to be fun. We'll preview that in a little bit as we go. Moving on to the games on Sunday, Amit.
00:08:18
Speaker
ah This way, i like I'm at the point in in my sporting life where I really don't try to get emotional about very many things. I let the Carolina Hurricanes make me mad. I've allowed myself that. They're the only thing that I'll allow to make me like legitimately mad. At the last World Cup, I got very emotionally invested in Argentina, being in Argentina, et cetera, et cetera. I was legitimately kind of upset at this England two Slovakia one result because we were so close. like insanely ridiculously close to putting England out of this
England's Narrow Escape
00:08:51
Speaker
tournament, to setting off this insane chain reaction of events where England were almost assuredly gonna change managers, et cetera, et cetera.
00:08:57
Speaker
Like, it's impossible to kind of overstate how close this was. There was less than a minute to go and the England had a throw in and they long throw it in and it gets flicked up in the box and out of absolutely nowhere after a game in which they did nothing and created nothing and were remarkably toothless. Dude, Bellingham's just like, ah, I'll just bike this and it'll go in. And it just completely changes the whole trajectory of this tournament. And if ever you wanted more evidence that international football at its core is a small sample size experiment where things get swung dramatically by minuscule margins and moments, and it was this right here. England going out of the competition all of a sudden back in, back with life and maybe some momentum.
00:09:49
Speaker
Yeah, maybe some momentum. i'm On your point, like it's you know even the United States, we joke about like, oh, I'm the fan of them. I'm a fan of them. But like you almost have to disassociate yourself from that the same way I'm saying you don't feel things as much about watching sports anymore. yeah Man, nothing will bring that out of you like Garrett Southgate. No, I know. He makes me so mad. They just do, right? They just do. it i think what a compelling team for everyone to watch because Anyone with the an ounce of footballing brain could watch and be like this team is not the way they should be um and and why are they doing it this way good you know what yeah It was that and like you said at the end of the day, it's Something stupid and and that the other part about international football is that yes, like it can be bad for 95 minutes, but when you have
00:10:43
Speaker
a quote on quote elite best player level in the world who Jude Bellingham certainly is at that level despite having played quite badly for frank England this tournament and in this game he could do that and Southgate got bailed out England got bailed out it was all just so toothless like you said that's the right word and I mean England defensively had been really good this tournament. Not so good in this game. I think Slovakia were not scared to counter them. And Slovakia in general, I think, we had some of the lower percentages of attacking touches and ah possession. Doesn't matter. They knew, like, let's go put them under pressure. um Really good goal. England were carved up. And from there, you thought England would
00:11:30
Speaker
you know, let's see, will they take the game? They're down one, they need a goal. And it just wasn't that, right? It was all so slow to get it going. um The subs did not come at halftime. They came trickle and slow. Like we saw um Palmer come in finally in like the 60th minute and they moved Sokka to left back. And then as they came in, in the 84th minute, like that was the two subs in 90 minutes. And we saw Ivan, Tony come on in the 94th. Is that how you manage a game down one? Like what what was Southgate seeing to believe any evidence of that? What his team on the field was doing was going to work.
00:12:11
Speaker
Nothing, but they got a long throw, and they got a bike kick out of it, and it worked, and it bailed them out, and it saved them, and that's just how this goes. And then, obviously, from there, this was ah there was always only going to be one result for England. The fact that they got the goal, Slovakia were never gonna bounce back from that, and they conceded very early in extra time. Oh, Harry Kane. That's Southgate's other card. He played his two wildcards right here. Ridiculous talent to bail him out, and then the go-to Harry Kane goal. it it It was like every other go-to Harry Kade goal you've seen. Oh, a ball came in the box, someone else headed it, and no one was expecting that touch except for Harry Kade, whose nose for goal smelled it a mile away, point blank header. I mean like...
00:12:54
Speaker
At this point, why are we doing Analyze England games? I'm beyond words for like what you're supposed to say. He's going to get it wrong. The margins are going to be fine. Every tournament, he gets it wrong and they crash out. and that We thought that was here, but it wasn't. like and We'll talk about later when we get to eg England-Switzerland, There's no evidence that that game won't be stupid, like that game's gonna be the same stupid game. Run it back! Right? That's exactly what they're gonna do, is they're gonna play the exact same strategy, the exact same things are gonna happen, and I don't know. but ah Do you buy into the theory that like, this was their get it wrong, and they gotta get it out of jail free card, and they can kick on and do something in this tournament now?
00:13:35
Speaker
i I think in a sense like the facts remain that this is still a very soft bracket compared to the other half, and they're still favored to make the final, despite having been admitted away from being out. They're still favored. Do I think that this kicks them on? That's a tricky question, because I just don't know that Southgate is going to like fix the attacking problems. Do they believe in being kicked? like Does England even believe that it's kicking on? meant Mentality- You gotta go forward to kick on, right? Right. Mentality-wise, I do think
00:14:14
Speaker
You know, Jude Bellingham is a little bit different of ah of a factor than they maybe had in their past runs. He's got some of that Madrid voodoo in him, right which seems to infect other players like Luca Modric or Danny Carvajal when they leave the Madrid ecosystem and do great things, or even Venicious. So like they've got that. That's a little stalwart against it. Not stalwart. I don't know.
Southgate's Tactical Critique
00:14:42
Speaker
Made up words. But do I think that this fixes their mu or fixes things?
00:14:48
Speaker
No. There's no evidence that Southgate or England are going to behave differently. But if they're if there was a lesson to be learned, and again, both of us, I think, believe Southgate does not learn any lessons. It doesn't do lessons. is that it doesn't matter how you attack you just need to attack somehow and it worked getting it in the mixer twice with like putting the ball in the box like whatever they do for 80 minutes attacking with less doesn't work and like These teams aren't going to hurt you. That's the thing where he just won't learn the lesson. like You don't have to be so scared. But like you just need to attack somehow. It could be put the ball in the box mixer ball. Especially players to play mixer ball. Harry Kane is the best mixer baller there is. Yeah, and you could you can put on Tony. You could put on Watkins. You could put on Crossers too. Foden is not the mixer baller. like Palmer will do it. Palmer will be the guy to play the ball in. like
00:15:46
Speaker
If that's my only thing that could help them going forward, is if he's like, look, at the end of a game, it doesn't have to be pretty. Let's just mixer ball it. That could help them. But outside of that, and even I'm not sure that that's that, I think this is the same England story. They got a crazy pass, but I don't think this changes the way they think they're going to get past the next few rounds. Poor Slovakia, man. They needed a timeout. They just needed one more timeout. They were so close. They were so close. like what do you like What are you going to tell Slovakia that they should have done differently? like I don't know. it was It was interesting, because the goal came out with the second long throw in the sequence. right They had already done the long throw routine. And look, i mean sending it out for another throw in, it's not a bad decision. It's just stupid. That's what happens.
00:16:30
Speaker
i am It almost looked like we were maybe gonna have a ah different shock on Sunday a bit because Small and mighty Georgia were not afraid to counter-attack They were not afraid to dribble and they got a weird own goal bounce early on to take a 1-0 lead against Spain Spain did not panic they stuck to their game plan They stuck to simply being the better team and they showed the Spain that we've seen throughout this tournament and took care of Georgia easily in a 4-1 win Yeah, this was really, really great attacking performance from Spain.
Spain's Attacking Brilliance
00:17:00
Speaker
I think, for my money, the best in a game we've seen all tournament. um And that speaks to three players in particular, Lamina Mall and the right wing, Nico Williams and left wing. We've said all tournament. They've changed the calculus for the way the Spain team can play. And then also, Roger here. um When it was 1-0, and again, that's the the hardest game state for Spain to play in.
00:17:24
Speaker
when Georgia was really defending well for what? Almost the half. Almost got to half. Roger just you know walked them into the box, into 25 yards out on a perfect strike. And we've said, you know he has done that for Man City. That is a decent, we always say, you gotta shoot from distance. And you know he's even taking distance in air quotes as short as possible. He really walked it to 20 yards out, as high of a good shot from distance you can get. And then from there, I mean, they were all over them. And Georgia you know played well. I thought they they had the right idea.
00:17:59
Speaker
I mean, there's just a golfing class here. like Yes, exactly. Very clear. um I think what's so interesting about Spain is I think they're kind of finding the formula here, right? Because I don't think they've abandoned the Tikitaka short passes possession type game that we we've come to know and love from them. But they figured out a way to kind of diversify that. And so when you take that, And then you add these wingers in in Williams and LaMalle, and that gives them a different a totally different look to them. You add runners who can who can go in behind. So when you can do all that passing and possession, and then splash in a pass behind a runner, and then toss in a, all right, we've pinned you all the way back, boom, here's robbery from 25 yards. It might go in the back of the net. That's really, really dangerous and really, really effective.
00:18:48
Speaker
100% it's not just they pass you deep into the block and then give up. Not that they give up, but they're- There were times when what Spain would do is they would pass the ball until they could literally pass the ball into the net, right? They would just pass it, pass it, pass it, pass it. All right, that guy's close enough. He can pass it. Empty net goal. And they've adjusted. And I think it's obviously much better for it. They've accepted some higher risk forms of attack or chance forms of attack. because they realize they have the quality to take players on one-on-one, to cross from distance, to shoot from distance, and send in runners into the box for headers, like Fabian Ruiz on the the goal that he headed in from Yamal. And he's been really good this tournament. There's just more in the mix, you've said. They've got the variety. It's not one-dimensional. And we're going to talk about Spain-Germany, but that's a really interesting wrinkle.
00:19:46
Speaker
For
France vs Belgium: A Tight Contest
00:19:47
Speaker
sure. All right. Let's move to Monday's action. France won Belgium nil. This was kind of interesting because Didier de Champs did the France, you know, sufferable type thing. Belgium tried to do something. I think it just didn't really work and France got the bounce at the end and went through. it Yeah, Tedesco came out with two strikers. He played Appenda. We'd been saying, let's get a Lois Appenda, RB Leipzig guy in there, vertical threat, transition threat very fast. But he didn't put him in for Lukaku. He tried two strikers. And I mean, that's a really interesting decision to play two strikers against France, I think the hardest team to play in the tournament.
00:20:28
Speaker
And France were kind of all over them, but but France don't attack with that many numbers, so they almost got away with it. um It was one-sided, I think, for maybe 15, 20 minutes. Then there were some moments for Belgium, right? Then the second half was all France. It really was. I think it wasn't working for Tedesco, but they kept them at bay because France couldn't finish again. And they got a few chances in transition. But like you said, at the end of the day, what? A deflected shot from Kola Moani? I mean, like, that's just... What do you want me to say? Neither team played that well, but France did more, put more got the chance to get more bounces. i still Belgium weren't very good this entire time. No, they weren't, and they haven't been for quite some time now. ah Do you know how the Kola Moani goal was reacted to in my office when it went in? Let's hear it. I know he's ah he's got some fans in ah Argentina.
00:21:26
Speaker
Oh, call one he can score. What do you know? There you go. Um, yeah, they were spinning that narrative, some redemption for him. It wasn't a particularly good finish. Took a big old bounce off of it. Was it like, yeah, named it into the ground and so like it skipped and I think I was just, ah it was just a weird ball to to get beaten on. Um, France are probably the deserved team to go through here, but it's not like they really, really deserved it. They just kind of did more, right? Yeah, they did more. Mbappe was really good in this game. He didn't score, but you could see him taking it upon himself. Like, look, I understand
00:22:03
Speaker
Deschamps doesn't want to commit a lot of numbers forward. So great. i'll take the numbers yeah I'll take on one guy, two guys, three guys and shoot. And he was pretty good at doing it. ah He was really good. I think he'll come off continually. I think we saw a little bit more from Griezmann. Again, Marcus Tram continues to disappoint in front of goal. If you're going to play this game where the other team is super deep, play Olivier Giroud and cross to him. um We saw some good crosses from France. I thought Jules Kunde had a good game. Jomani was playing really good long balls. Trom just couldn't quite link it up. Griezmann was just not there. But look, France just are so good and much more better than England than doing this game state at just suffocating you out of the game. They control the midfield.
00:22:55
Speaker
another great game for Saliba. We haven't even said his name. I think a lot of this tournament, their second X are so good. Like they just, they give you nothing. They give you, yeah wouldn well, that's the thing. So what's the benefit of sending small numbers into attack is that you were ridiculously covered in defense. And so, What could have been a ah dangerous Belgium attack, right? You've got De Bruyne, or you've got the two strikers. You've got Doku. There were guys at Belgium to run here, and the game plan was almost to try and lure France into getting out of position and letting those guys try to run into space, play balls into space. You've got two strikers, you've got lots of options, but when France are only sending three, four guys forward, there's just too much traffic back the other way, and Belgium just could never get into any type of dangerous situation, really.
00:23:40
Speaker
Yeah, the deeper we're getting in this tournament, you're seeing the teams with really strong center backs and 1v1 full backs. I mean, Kunde was really good here. He he stood up really well to Jokku. Saliba was outstanding. Upamakano is a guy that'll give you a mistake. He does it for Bayern, but you he's been fine here. like Yeah, France are just really good at defending. At some point, will the finishing attacking you know come to bite them? Maybe. but they still have Abape and he hasn't scored his
Portugal's Penalty Drama
00:24:13
Speaker
world yet. So yeah, job done for France. I think this was exactly how Didier de Champs wins a knockout game. yep It was pretty textbook.
00:24:22
Speaker
Sure, for sure. The other game that took place on Monday afternoon of it was peak footballing cinema. It was Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal. And I literally mean Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal. Getting past Slovenia on penalties. oh this was This was art, man. This was theater. like This was roll although for better, for worse, and and in this case, it was pretty bad for worse, making this game pretty much entirely about him. And it was him attempting to score in various ways and not achieving it, getting a penalty, which was a fantastic opportunity to score and not scoring, having other chances.
00:25:03
Speaker
I don't know, no matter what Portugal do, it always seems to come back to Ronaldo. And that's what happened in this game. And he didn't get it done. He was crying at like, I mean, it was insane. And then this goes to penalties and up out of nowhere, steps up a different hero for Portugal because Cristiano Ronaldo can't, can't save penalties. Like I think if he if he could, he would, but they put it in the the goalkeeper who has to called in action here and joe costa stole the day it saved all three penalties and won this for portugal and redeemed this for portugal and run all those saga spins on
00:25:36
Speaker
It was super engrossing. It really was like watching all of us watching him and you know I think the majority of footballing fans you know kind of rooting against him and But in general, whether you root against him or not, like just he's so emotional and everyone's just feeling him like trying to score so desperately. It is so ingrained in his being that he is the man that scores goals and just like not being able to be that and having that crisis for all of us. It it was super fun and I came into this game thinking,
00:26:11
Speaker
man like it's fine to play him. It's a good option to cross to him because he's a good aerial threat and he's a good finisher. And I do think at some point, you can't give anyone chances, they'll they'll eventually score them. But at this at a certain point, the way you said it all, it it just finds a way to come back to him. The sideshow is, is getting in the way of their goals. And that's always been the the Portugal Ronaldo discourse. And I think the balance is, it's not in a good spot. And Bobby Martinez is supposed to be, you know, the the guy of the vibes, the Ubuntu, and they're gonna have to figure this out. I mean, Portugal with someone else, wouldn't wouldn't it be better?
00:26:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, and that's what we saw at the World Cup. And and we had that whole discourse in in in guitar about this was, you know, what is for all those best role on this team? Where should he be coming? Should he be coming off the bench? That sort of thing. um The interesting thing is, I also have have bought into your theory that particularly against the opponents that Portugal have had, the way that they've tried to play, I don't think has necessarily been the wrong way to try to play, but that's going to be completely different now. And we'll get to this in a second. They're not going to be, I mean, I guess there are going to be facing a low block because it's France and that's what France do, but it's a completely different animal playing France and and and playing Slovenia or playing Georgia or Turkey or or what have you. So I'm super intrigued to see that. So we need to have their chance here.
00:27:40
Speaker
And it was a one-on-one chance for Cisco behind the back line. Like, if you're a Slovenia and you you're drawing up the entirety of this game, like, all right, we got a big penalty save from Olac on Ronaldo. Ronaldo was emotional. He's in tears. And and you draw it up. It's like, all right, let's try and get Cisco behind the defense one-on-one. That's our guy. That's our main man. He's one-on-one, and he doesn't score a minute. He gets saved by Jogo Costa. That was their chance here. He had a few other ones too, didn't he? I had really had hope in Sesco and I think i think he's going to be a great player. I would not write him off. He's going to be good.
00:28:18
Speaker
but There's the class and strikers where you just running straight at goal and scoring one on one is a skill. It is. There's a reason why Harry Kane has made his living off of it. And it's harder than it looks because you just need that ounce of ah composure is the right word. And I just think, you know, the goalie always is going to make themselves as big as possible and make you come up with creativity. You can't just put your head down and blast it. Ask Darwin Nunez, ask Sesco, ask whatever. ah It just doesn't work like that. That's for different kinds of situations. And he didn't do that. um Anyways, that was a bummer for him and for Slovenia and
00:29:00
Speaker
Joe Acosta was immense. like He really was. It's a man of the match type of stuff. yeah and Then obviously the penalties, saving all three penalties and doing so in a way ... I didn't think Slovenia took bad penalties. Obviously they didn't take perfect penalties because perfect penalties score, but they took good solid penalties to the side and Acosta's just massive. Man, he just has an insane get off from the line. and can put that foot behind the line so he's obviously behind the line and just cuts and jumps and takes the angle away and it's just really hard to score a penalty against him obviously because they didn't yeah i really great form exactly how you outlined like yeah it was it's so tough to like get to the shootout and i think
00:29:45
Speaker
No matter the vibe, it was the end of the day of shootouts, 50-50. But the vibe certainly felt like, oh, man, Ronaldo missed. Oh, we frustrated them. It's our time. And we have O Block 2, who's a great keeper. But listen, when the keeper gets even an ounce of momentum in a shootout, it's different. And you and I have seen it in person. We've seen it lots of times watching soccer together. when Kosta was the guy. he was yeah He was the main figure in this match at the end of the day. And and that's pretty freaking hard to do when Rinaldo's penalty tried, took every freaking imaginable. like It's really hard to come out of this game and be the headline. And he was, because he won it for him, kept him alive.
00:30:33
Speaker
All right, that's it on Portugal. Let's get to today's action quickly. i it ah We were pretty blessed here. Other than the Spain-Georgia match, every game had some sort of intrigue. ah Netherlands-Romania did not. 3-0 for the Netherlands today. They were the better side and they showed it. Yeah, we've always been ah on Romania as a team that can defend really well. And Radu Dragosin played really well today as a team that could dribble and shoot from distance. Romania did a little bit of that. But at the end of the day, this was just a battering. I think Netherlands are very, very good. They're not elite. And we have questions about their midfield. But when your midfield is worse and Romania's was. Yeah. Well, then it's just easy for them to set up their talented attackers um in good positions. And I think you're seeing DePye and Gackpo come together a little bit. This is a good Cody Gackpo game. Yeah, he's a different player at the international level. And I think
00:31:32
Speaker
If you think of him as a winger who does winger things like dribble and cross and like interpret space, you'll be disappointed. If you think of him as a wide forward, that's very good at like going to goal. Yeah. Scoring on goals. Well, then you'll be impressed because he's very good at that. He'd shown that in 2022. He showed that here again today. A really great finish at zero zero and getting that goal so early kind of ruined the fun ah that Romania was going to have in this game. And from there, I think Netherlands were just very clinical. They didn't even need to use the best plan. That's what I was going to say. Well, Vancouver stayed in the box today. It'll come out next time. You didn't even have to try it. Yeah. And look, Netherlands, I think neither of us are going to be shaken that they're just a very good second tier contender.
00:32:19
Speaker
Yeah, but they're just dangerous in these formats because they're very good defenders solid attackers well managed and they do not mess around the way Portugal did or England did or even France. They just put their head down very clear ideas of how to attack ah with their personnel. This is about, I think, as one-sided as yeah as we saw this this ah and this round. And we said it when we previewed these round of 16 games. Netherlands are really hard to take out of a tournament. And they've got a decent little path here where I don't know that there's anybody that's going to be significantly favored. Like, if the Netherlands and England play in a semifinal, sure, England would be favored. But it's not to the level that you'd be shocked if if the Netherlands win. so So good job here. All right, let's close a bit with the fun that we alluded to at the start of the show.
Austria vs Turkey: A Thrilling Conclusion
00:33:08
Speaker
What a fun bonkers round of 16 game. Austria and Turkey gave us today. Again, this is the type of thing. Neither of these teams are going to win the Euro. Austria obviously aren't going to win because they're out. Turkey are not going to win because they're Turkey and they can't defend. But what a great game. Just insanely fun. I don't know what to say. like We had previewed, oh, these two teams are going to go at each other. And they did and Austria kind of was all over them. And like, yes, Turkey gave up one goal, but the XG was 2.4 for Austria. Turkey could not keep them out of their box, could not keep them from shooting in very good positions. But Austria just got the bounces and Turkey had two set pieces.
00:33:54
Speaker
They scored one really early in the first minute, which is literally the perfect way to play Austria when you need to slow them down. And then they got the second two and they boy, they needed it. We talked throughout this game and it was like. Can Turkey defend? They can't defend a 1-0. There's no way they win this 1-0. They have to score a second goal. And to their credit, they took their opportunities to go do it. I don't think you're absolutely filled with confidence in the Turkish defense here. They just cleared the ball however they could. And sometimes that meant it went straight to Austria. And sometimes that meant it wouldnt didn't go very far. But they got the job done and got this over the line. And how about the save and in in the last minute? Just a great moment. that For all of Diogo Costa's heroics,
00:34:39
Speaker
Say, pound for pound, just the most impressive save we've seen in this tournament. Header from point blank range, just gets that palm to it, a reaction save. I mean, this is what's fun about an international knocker tournament, is sometimes the other team batters you for 90 minutes, but you're just 1% more heroic than them. And that's that was Turkey today, and like, Did Austria outplay them the whole game? Yeah, but did Turkey deserve to win? 100% they deserve to win. Austria did not score, and at the death, they a great save from the keeper. like
00:35:18
Speaker
That's just everything that's fun in a knockout game like this. What a performance. And I was just, we were just having a ball. It's just fun. It's just a fun day out. The bomb garter chance was so great because it's one of those moments where we talked about this event where you see it all develops. It's like, oh, the cross is always free. He's there. He got to it. Oh, he saved it. Like your reaction just keeps going up a level with everything that happens. It had all the makings of, oh, they got them. They got the goal right at the death because it was all right there. And I think it was a well-taken header. It was just a better city. Yeah, I think Austria are better. They were better. They're a good team. But when you play this style, you have to score
00:36:04
Speaker
your chances that they created Marko Arnautovic was just what a vibe off the pace. like Yeah, he was very like, he was very like, he was very mid-tier Asian qualifying here, right? Like you just needed him to be five to 10% better. You just did. And he wasn't. Yeah. And that's and that's what it is. um And if Austria had slightly better attackers, they'd be an even more lethal team. their strength is in their ability to create chances, not necessarily in their ability to finish them. And it just all concocted in the worst way. I think you play this game 10 times, Austria wins it comfortably five to six. And if you're going to play this game where Turkey wins,
00:36:47
Speaker
It was scoring first scoring twice and the game ending exactly what it did because if it went for like even two more minutes there's gonna not have made it they might not have made it they might not have made it um this was fought This was fun, this is what we look for quickly on Austria We talked about Italy a little bit like this this style that they play I think is gonna be really what is gonna work really well for them and work up qualified the more The bigger the sample size. I think the better Austria will show 100%. They create that many chances. The goals eventually come. They just control the game against, we literally saw them control the midfield against Netherlands at decent amount against France. yeah There's no, one there's no one that'll scare them and world cup qualifying. There'll be a fun team. We'll see how things shake out with the Ragnick, Ragnick and what happens the next two years. But, um,
00:37:39
Speaker
They should commit no matter who's in charge to playing this style, and they'll be really fun in 26 should they get there. Which we expect. Definitely. All right, let's preview the quarterfinals
Spain vs Germany: Pre-Match Analysis
00:37:48
Speaker
a bit. Let's start at the top of the table. It's Spain, Germany. So often, these international games generally follow the same sort of pattern, right? Like, the team that is better has the ball and tries to break down the team that is not better. The team that is not better doesn't have the ball and looks to exploit going back the other way against the team that is better. Very rarely, you get this type of circumstance where there is no team that is better. These are two.
00:38:12
Speaker
evenly matched teams and not just that, there is also neither one of these teams wants to play without the ball. Sometimes you get these good on good matches, but there's one team that very clearly heads into the match with the idea of we're okay not having the ball. That's our style. These teams want to have the ball. They want to possess the ball. They want to create chances. And that makes for a perfect stylistic clash, a mountainous, titanic, use all the adjectives you want type of quarterfinal, get the popcorn out. It's going to be fun. I think since we've done this podcast, I've like wanted to see this game in a major tournament. And it's finally, finally happened. Gosh, I could not be more excited. This is just like the best kind of game, and I'm hoping it'll deliver. There's so much talent, and I think you described it perfectly.
00:38:59
Speaker
these teams both want the ball and that's where everything starts is you know how much pressing how much counter pressing when you lose the ball is it going to be a little pinball or is it going to be a little more We set up really methodically an attack. And then you set up really methodically an attack. Both of these teams are ruthless attacking with speed too. So like this game could go a million different ways. Whoever scores first sets it up beautifully for then you get a little bit more of this style we're used to. Games with a team up one generally look pretty similar depending how it goes. When when they're close in talent.
00:39:37
Speaker
Um, man, it's, it's going to be really good. I think, you know, diving into a little bit deeper, like I do think Spain is five to 10% better, um, given the wingers they have. Um, but how much is that home field advantage? Is that that five per 10%? I mean, if Germany gets the little bit of extra running and again, it's. yeah ah we can analyze this till the cows come home but if someone's gonna score a nice shot like yeah it's gonna be easier. i think sorry ah Go ahead. Yeah so I wanted to ask you what are the matchups that you're most looking forward to here or like what do you think is going to determine the way that this game goes? I think
00:40:19
Speaker
Germany, both of these teams have some weaknesses defending. And for Germany, it's their slow central midfielders. um That's Kurz and Andrzej. And then to an extent, Kimic is a converted central midfielder playing right back. He's not like slow, like horribly slow. He's a perfectly fine athletic player. And then Spain's weaknesses are kind of their entire back line, but especially their full backs, Danny Carvajal and Kukureya. But both of these teams have wingers to to hurt them the other way. Musiala is very good. Williams and Yamal are very good. I think the biggest thing is when it comes down to who wants the ball, who's winning the ball, who's faster, more athletic in midfield. The advantage is 5% to 10% for Spain because of Roger. He's just the best midfielder on the field. And then also Fabian Ruiz and Pedro, I think, are
00:41:16
Speaker
10% 5 to 10% better than maybe good to gone Andreessen Cruz. But there's, you know, those, the Germany guys could put on a passing masterclass and say, compress us, we'll pass it around to you. It's, i I just think it's so narrow. I would hesitate to go further than 10%. I mean, that's my, you want me to pick the best midfielder on the field. I'm going to say Roger and say that's the edge for Spain at the end of the day, maybe the wingers, but that's my matchup. I mean, we also haven't seen Maratha like, really hit it on, I think. So that's the thing for me. we did You did a great job of of breaking it all down, talking about the matchups, talking about, you know, they'll look to go after the full backs, the midfield, all that. At the end of the day, when two teams of this caliber get together at this type of stage in a one-off knockout match, you know what it comes down to? It comes down to scoring goals.
00:42:09
Speaker
And it's super simplified and there's a lot of different, so much goes into scoring a goal. And I don't want to take anything away from that part, but at the end of the day, this is going to come down to who takes their chances. And we have question marks. I think about both sides, maybe a bit in that aspect, at least from from open play here. Yeah, Marotta hasn't necessarily hit it on. He did score a great goal in the group stage. And then I think Kai Havertz, again, really good player and has has played really well for Germany. And they' they're here and he's been their guy, but a little bit wasteful. Just more wasteful than you'd want. um i always you know It's not even a debate. Full crew will come on. I don't think he's going to start, but when he does play, he's more of a poacher.
00:42:54
Speaker
like who Who's going to score? And it certainly could be the type of game that gets a spectacular goal. It might not be. It could be pretty ugly. It could be a header. It could be a deflection. But if there's a game that would be aided by some like talented goals, these are the the teams to do it, right? You know who's lurking on that Spanish Benjamin? Oh man, there's a, oh, oh, it's Real Madrid Striker. It's Stoke City legend to say lose lurking on that Spanish bench. That's the type of player that.
00:43:29
Speaker
he scored his goals, right? Like all of this boils down to all of it and kudos, maybe Spain's down a goal with 10 minutes to go and they chuck a sale on and it's like, all right, it's mixer time. And he pokes one in. Like those are the type of things that that can swing these sort of matchups. I think this is super evenly poised. I think this is going to be an absolutely fascinating fair. I am very, very excited for it. And I think When you look at the, at the betting markets, which I think, I think serve as a ah good jumping off point to, to, you know, who's favored. It's dead even here. Absolutely dead even a hundred percent. And even with home field advantage, I mean, it'll be a great atmosphere, which I think probably accounts for the fact that like you said, Spain is maybe five to 10% better. And maybe the intangibles are five to 10% in favor of Germany. And so it's Spain to advance minus one 15 Germany to advance minus one of five. That means it's a toss up. Yeah. And.
00:44:21
Speaker
That means we're in for a treat. And last note is, you know, the goalkeepers are going to play a role for sure as well. And most of the time you get a good module noir, but sometimes you don't like yeah we know that. We know he can make mistakes. um But that to me is in the intangibles part two, where I think. he's he's he's done it before. No, he literally has. He's won on he's been there for Germany. um And I think Spain's backline is a little bit less, and that's in the intangibles as well. So whichever way you want to see it, who knows? I'm just hoping we get goals, and we get a great game, and we get drama, and I think we will. I think we're both in agreement we're expecting that. Yeah. and i think
00:45:07
Speaker
What really helps with that aspect is neither of these teams default setting is to not play. And that really helps a game like this. like Of course, it could get KG because any international match can get KG at some point, but I don't think either of these teams will be afraid of trying to play. And and that makes for
France vs Portugal: Tactical Preview
00:45:23
Speaker
a good game. Speaking of being afraid of trying to play, that's a great segue into France ports you will a little bit. We alluded to this a lot when we were breaking down these teams. ah This is a really interesting matchup because We haven't seen Portugal play anybody with any sort of quality yet. All of Portugal's games have followed the exact same sort of game script. you could so The Georgia game was a bit weird because Portugal were already through and it was just kind of this Ronaldo goal show. But the three games that Portugal have played that mattered
00:45:49
Speaker
have been Portugal is significantly better. The other team is doing what they can to try and limit Portugal and Portugal are are trying to score. That probably changes here. Or maybe that just gets put up about seven different levels because France is really good about playing that sort of game. They certainly have a lot more quality coming back the other way. And we haven't seen that creaky old back line get tested for Portugal yet. Pepe was the man who gave away the chance to Sesco when Slovenia almost scored. The Portugal backline I think is going to be under the microscope here because France can put pressure on them in the way in a way that very few other teams can. This is Bobby Martinez. This is Didier de Champs. This is great. This is also a very finely poised, really fun knockout match at the Euros.
00:46:37
Speaker
100% described it well. And starting there, we saw that this manager match up France, Belgium at the 2018 World Cup. And it was a triumph on narrow margins for Duchamp suffer ball. And that's how he's going to try to win this game. I think he's as much as maybe one of us in this position would say, let's go hurt Portugal's back line with numbers. I think this is going to be France playing the way you said, let's make Portugal come attack us. Let's make them commit until they leave themselves a little too open. And then we burn those, you know, soft backline defenders and transition with our speed. And that's the thing. So instead of trying to hurt them with numbers, you hurt them with space. And that's what France is going to try to do here. They want... France's goal in this game is to get any of Portugal's defenders caught up in space, trying to stop killing Mbappe one-on-one. That is an absolute mismatch and is what France is going to be looking for from the first minute.
00:47:34
Speaker
100%. And then the question shifts back to Portugal. How scared are you of that? yeah and And Bobby Martinez? Don't play scared. You can say what you want. but but yeah he doesn' He doesn't play scared. So if Portugal are going to do that, they should think about scoring early and getting to 1-0 and they can flip the whole game script into a much better thing where well and then now our guys are running it like Liao especially I think is a big game for him
00:48:06
Speaker
Uh, to try to hurt France the other way in transition where he's, when he's on, I know he's not the most consistent when he's on, he looks like a really great one man attacking outlet the other way. And then I think, you know, the Ronaldo question, add game for him, but it's also, if you need someone to to score against a bunkered France, and you're going to cross, he could do it. But like he's just been going up against bad center backs, and he hasn't scored. The France center backs are so much more physically dominant. i like yeah I'd be really worried about playing him in this game.
00:48:44
Speaker
I think this is a game where you need to try to do something different. And if at the end of the day, that doesn't work, you can always just bring them off the bench and go back to plan you you know go back to plan A, which is now plan B. But I think they need to try something else from the get go here because I don't foresee Ronaldo being particularly effective here. and Because like you said, he hasn't been particularly effective against teams that have much less quality than what's going to be offered here. Yeah, this is a very fun game. um We're going to see Portugal I think ah the onus be placed on their creative players to do something really awesome against the France backline because that's what it takes. I certainly can. I think that's where the pressure lies and I think
00:49:25
Speaker
France don't have to do anything awesome. And that's the way that they love the play. And maybe that'll change if Portugal goes up one. um But they're just so lethal in transition. And I think Mbappe is... is really on the cusp here of doing something. But um maybe they you know maybe they don't score on their counter-attacks. And Portugal is alive. like there's There's a window for this to get really good. It'll probably be a little more slower and cagey than than Spain, Germany. But there's a window for it to get good. And and I do think a goal here really helps the game in a way that the other game doesn't need a goal to be good.
00:50:05
Speaker
ye And I think if France find their shooting boots, this is going to be a completely different type of game, because if they take their chances, it's going to be really hard for Portugal. Yeah. Once France goes up the goal, then ah Portugal are in decent amount of trouble. Can I get a a status check on the on the world's biggest stew celebration? Look, if he's in this game and he scores a free kick, I mean, just this. The world act is done. yeah Nobody comes back tomorrow. It's over. All right, England, Switzerland, a it just cut and paste what we did from the Slovakia preview from the other day. Yeah, like what are we doing analyzing England? You heard us talk, we talked to them the most in our review of the games. Do you think England will do anything different than how they approached a team slightly worse than them? No, the answer is probably not. If they were to do something different, what would it be?
00:50:58
Speaker
I don't know. I think getting Palmer in more, getting less of Foden. They have an issue, I think, with Gehi's out, yellow card accumulation. um So they've got to put someone in at center back. I think Kansa, Joe Gomez, I'd probably go Joe Gomez, but you maybe you want Joe Gomez at left back. Trippier is he hurt? Is Luke Shaw fit? Does he go full on? I'm playing Bukhaya Sokka at left back. I liked what I saw. I mean, I don't think that's a bad idea. He's a really great player on his left foot and can actually do things. But then you have to he has to defend. um I don't know. I don't know. i mean
00:51:36
Speaker
Again, for me, the thing for England would be to be leading more into just getting the ball in the box with numbers. I don't care how. it like Figure that out. If they do that more, then maybe this could be the game where they actually have an easier game. But Switzerland are very stout defensively. I think this is going to be the KG game, dull game, low event game that we fear. Big game for Granit Zaka for Switzerland. Key piece for them, right? Yeah, he's just a really good passer. He can hit long balls. And I do think, especially without Gehi, who knows what left back is, the England's defense was not so convincing against Slovakia. They could be hurt in transition. That's what Switzerland want to do. there he He can make that happen. They've got other guys to you know hit those crosses, long balls, and the strikers. And Bolo was solid. They have subs. They've got Cuadodua.
00:52:35
Speaker
make them run, make them run, make England hurt and make them think twice about committing. Oh no. If you're making England think twice about committing, that's so bad because they're already thinking like three times. No, they're already not going to, but they even then Slovakia, you know, caught them out a few times. Sure, sure. England is simultaneously the favorite and also very vulnerable here. yeah Very vulnerable here, which is, you know, if anything, the the fun here is watching their psyche and mentality in real time adjust to to how they approach this where the pressure, the pressure has been on them more than anyone else for multiple cycles and they keep doing okay, but not enough. Let's close out here a bit. Netherlands Turkey kind of feels like Turkey used up all their magic to get by Austria. Yeah. I mean, Netherlands as we, we compliment them are just very good at the sweaty knockout stuff and Turkey,
00:53:31
Speaker
survived with the exact one in a hundred scenario they needed to beat Austria in a game they got outperformed in. Can you do it again? It's going to be that formula and like two times harder, I think. Yeah. So the the issue for Turkey here is like, I don't know, they're not good enough defensively to to defend and hold on. I don't know that they have enough attacking wise to really trouble the Dutch defense. And even if you can concoct a scenario in which they are up or tied late in this game, on comes about Veghorst. And like that dude against the Turkish backline is a big old mismatch and is going to be problematic for them. Yeah, the one time we saw Turkey play a good attacking team with the ball, and while Austria are a good attacking team, I would say that's not necessarily how they attack you.
00:54:22
Speaker
It was Portugal, and it was 3-0, and it wasn't close. yeah um Again, Turkey's strategy, they they have some quality in attack. with Arto Guler and Hakan Kalhanoglu and Baris Yilmaz. But the way they hurt you is with numbers and transition. And Ronald Koeman is too wise for that. And the Netherlands defenders are all very good. That's what we've always said. Virgil van Dyck, Nathan Aque, Denzel Dumfries, Matthias Delicht. It just does not play into the way Turkey want to beat you. It's very hard to imagine a scenario where
00:55:00
Speaker
they get joy attacking. They're going to have to score set pieces again. Yep. And they need to, and they need to go score because they're not going to be able to stop the other ones from scoring. And they need to take their chances and take them well because if they don't Memphis, the pie and company are coming back running the other way. And that's ah also a mismatch in the favor of those. This is, I think the biggest mismatch we have in the quarterfinals. And I think I would be pretty shocked if anything other than another one's easy win comes here. I'm with you. I mean, it'd have to be the, again, literally the exact same game script. Lightning does not often strike twice unless no, not unless no, you're spot on your spot on it. All right. That's it for us on a miss Euro show. We'll be back tomorrow.
00:55:41
Speaker
With the big Copa America group stage recap quarterfinal preview, we will have tons of the fallout from the USA's elimination. We'll talk Panama. We'll talk Amit's last standing dark horse with Venezuela. We'll talk tonight's big Brazil Columbia game. Really excited for Brazil Columbia, Amit, because it's got big stakes because the winner gets to play Panama and the loser gets to not play Panama. So that's going to be really fun. We're looking forward to that tonight. So we'll be back with Copa America tomorrow. That's all for your today and we'll be back with with more Euro stuff this weekend. As always, if you like what we do, you can subscribe, rate, review, and press all the good buttons. And if you'd like to support us monetarily, you can find us at patreon dot.com slash WCAD, $3 a month, access to exclusive shows, access to the World Cup qualifying master spreadsheet and much, much more. That's it from us. We'll talk to you guys soon.