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WCAD 3-49: WCAD and its six friends go to Mexico for the ICP
83 Plays2 days ago
Austin and Amit come together to preview the potpourri that is the FIFA Interconfederation Playoff. Can New Caledonia, and its four-ish professionals pull a stunner? (no). How will Jamaica and Suriname look under new managers? (probably mostly the same), plus, what to make of Bolivia, Iraq, and DR Congo, who will all fancy themselves to make the World Cup.
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Transcript
Introduction and AFCON Update
00:00:00
Speaker
I know that you, dear listener of the World Cup After Dark podcast, may be thinking to yourself, man, it's been a little time since we've had a podcast from the guys. And you'd be right. Nearly two months. You know how long two months is in the World Cup After Dark calendar? I mean, we got a new AFCON champion.
00:00:16
Speaker
Different than the last time we talked. You got to give credit to CAF. And, you know, they could they could try to take that trophy away from Senegal. Yeah. But ah we all saw what happened ah in Morocco.
00:00:30
Speaker
And as I joked to to Austin, in the words of Tony Braxton, you cannot un-cry the tears of Brahim Diaz. ah We all saw that emotional meltdown. Cap can do what they want. That doesn't change what happened.
00:00:42
Speaker
Also, like I don't think CAF is going to end up winning this because I think they're going to get cast in the end, right? like This is going to escalate all the way to the court of arbitration for sport.
AFCON Controversy and Senegal's Claim
00:00:51
Speaker
I think this is probably ending with... It's a unique situation, undoubtedly, because by the letter of the law, like, Senegal, they left, and it says when you leave, you lose.
00:01:03
Speaker
But also, if you lose, like the ref needs to just end the game in the moment, and they didn't do that. It's... It's a whole mess. And I don't think we really needed to go through the step of making Morocco CAF champions because I don't think Morocco really want to be CAF champions in this context. And Senegal, obviously, will always consider themselves CAF champions. But what's a little controversy about Monk Friends?
00:01:26
Speaker
You know, I'm just delighted that two months later, we're still getting content from that glorious, glorious game. um And that's what happens when World Cup After Dark gets together. The things we watch provide us such great delight and joy. And
2026 World Cup Playoffs Introduction
00:01:38
Speaker
you know what? We're going to be watching. It's a perfect segue, Amit, because six of our closest friends from the international footballing community are about to descend on Mexico to play for the two final spots in the 2026 People World Cup.
00:01:50
Speaker
And Amit, I got to tell you, it's a who's who of World Cup After Dark stars. right We have a team that is only good at altitude playing not at altitude, which then you can conclude that they're not going to be good.
00:02:04
Speaker
We have two sides from CONCACAF with brand new managers for the biggest games in a long time for both of them. We have an African side that might be the most consistent team here. They survived a grueling qualification process. They should be favorites.
00:02:18
Speaker
We have a side from the Middle East who had a travel ordeal to even get to Mexico. And then we've got a team from Oceania that has played all of one international match in the last year. bet when the World Cup qualification pathway was set out all that time ago, when 49 shows ago, you and I sat down for the first World Cup after dark of this season, we always had our eyes on the intercontinental playoff and what that would bring.
00:02:44
Speaker
And now that it is here, let me tell you that what it is about to bring is glorious.
00:02:51
Speaker
This is what we do it for. 49
Jamaica's Playoff Chances and Team Analysis
00:02:54
Speaker
episodes. Wow. And these are the six-week guys. Pretty good. I'm not... You know, I'm very sad my boys from Venezuela are not here. But the Bolivia-naughted altitude is a great, great ah character to have. What a cast. And I think we're going to get some some good results from this cast.
00:03:11
Speaker
I mean, I think like there's no scenario in which this isn't interesting. right right like Correct. Nobody here is good enough. The best team here is DR Congo, who are probably the, you know, 10th, eighth to 10th best team in Africa.
00:03:26
Speaker
And that is far and away the best team here. Nobody here should be dominant enough to make this uninteresting. And the teams that are here all have significant question marks, among other things, that ensure that regardless of what happens one way or the other, we're probably getting some funky, dramatic scenes. And it helps that it's going to be taking place at night, right? Like as late as you can go in Mexico, like just the vibes are all set for this to just be wacky and wild. And and we just finished recording a ah a podcast previewing the European playoff. You should check that out for as tense and as sweaty as that is going to be.
00:04:04
Speaker
i think this is going to be equally wacky and wild and just deliver us storylines because there are two spots in the World Cup. And for all six of these teams, making the World Cup would be an unquestionably massive achievement. And that just makes for a good recipe.
00:04:21
Speaker
I think so. You nailed it. And yeah, there are a lot of silly things going on, but I'm sure that'll be even sillier on the field and... I don't know. I think um with with with some of these teams, there's something to the point that perhaps this is like the exact spot they should be, that they're okay teams. They're right around the level of you'd think they'd be World Cup teams, but for a lot of issues, they've stumbled.
00:04:46
Speaker
Maybe they overachieved to get here in certain cases. that This is just where they belong. So it it it is the the the right destination for for this. And I think, right, in a 48-team World Cup, I don't think of these 16...
Impact of a 48-Team World Cup
00:05:00
Speaker
That was another point, yes.
00:05:01
Speaker
I don't think there's any of these six teams that you say that team should really be making a 48-team World Cup. And outside of New Caledonia, our beloved friends from Oceania, I don't think there's a team here that you look at and you say that team really shouldn't be making a 48-team World Cup.
00:05:15
Speaker
These teams all fall in that plot of teams 40 to 55 in the world that have gotten it right and gotten to play another day to try and make the World Cup.
00:05:28
Speaker
Exactly. the only The only thing I'll just add before we dive in is that it would be really fun, really fun if FIFA let us have a European team somewhere in this. The dream intercontinental playoff down the road includes our friends. And, you know, as Austin said, we did ah a European playoff preview. a lot of good stuff in there. That's got its own drama in its own right. But just imagine what we could get if we had a Slovakia here somewhere.
00:05:51
Speaker
That was exactly thing I to go for. I was thinking, let's just let's just pick up Slovakia from those European playoffs and let's just drop a in here and see what happens when Bolivia and Slovakia duke it out.
00:06:02
Speaker
So let's get into it a bit. Let's preview what we're about to get on Thursday and Tuesday in Guadalajara and Monterey. We'll start in pathway one. which will be played in Guadalajara, Jamaica, New Caledonia, and DR
Challenges for New Caledonia in the Playoffs
00:06:18
Speaker
Congo.
00:06:18
Speaker
The winner of this path will go into Group K alongside Portugal, Uzbekistan, and Colombia. You think Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be tuning in, scouting in the defenses to see he can score as hat-tricks against them in?
00:06:31
Speaker
i think he would I think he would love to. i don't know how much film he's crushing, but he wants to know who he who he can work on, his right tap-in angles against. Let's start with the first game in Guadalajara, which is New Caledonia against Jamaica. And let's start with the team that is far and away the outsider here. Let's start with New Caledonia. Let's just a brief recap of what the last year has been for New Caledonia and what we can expect for them. Look,
00:06:56
Speaker
I can promise you, you're not getting this level of New Caledonia analysis on any other intercontinental preview that you are looking at. And soon you'll probably see why. So since they lost 3-0 to New Zealand in March of 2025, that was the match that sent New Zealand straight to the World Cup and sent New Caledonia to this occasion in Mexico.
00:07:15
Speaker
They omit have played one full international match. That was a 2-0 win over Gibraltar in October. And they have played one match against a French fifth-tier side, which was in January. That was a 3-0 win, a 3-1 win, I should say, over Vertu.
00:07:29
Speaker
In that game, Luis Waya scored three goals for New Caledonia, fitting because he plays for Vertu. So he scored three goals against his club teammates, only on the World Cup After Dark podcast.
00:07:39
Speaker
Their most decorated players are probably Captain Cesar Zula and Oceanic qualifying heartthrob George Gopfenipej. Zula is 37. Gopfenipej is 36th. They play in the French fifth and fourth tier, respectively. They both have experience in the top couple of tiers of the French League. Their best player is undoubtedly former French youth international Angelo Fulgini, who is about to make his new Caledonia debut. He's 29. He plays for Altawan and Saudi Arabia on loan from Lenz, and he Just recently completed his one-time switch from France to New Caledonia.
00:08:12
Speaker
In order to represent them, he will bring a large amount of professionalism to their midfield. Unfortunately for New Caledonia, outside of Fulgini, they have two guys who play for Tahiti United, which is the new professional team in the OFC Professional League, which has a couple of professional teams on various oceanic islands.
00:08:29
Speaker
And then their only other player playing freshly is Jacob Jeno, who plays in the Israeli second division. That, Amit, is the team that is two wins away from making the World Cup, as long odds as those two wins may be.
00:08:44
Speaker
I mean... It's incredible breakdown. Thank you. um Truly. this the the The place to start, right if you're just going to talk about it in any sort of sense, is that their last big game was three zero to New Zealand.
00:09:00
Speaker
It's not out of the ballpark of like competitiveness. Right. And it took what a half in New Zealand to kind of, to kind of get it going. Yeah. New new Zealand done for an hour in that game, I guess New Zealand, their goalkeeper who I didn't mention in the recap, Rocky and Kine is one of their best players. And obviously in these sorts of matches, one of their key players, there is, i think a scenario in which you can talk yourself into this being interesting.
00:09:27
Speaker
But it being interesting and it working, I think there's a pretty big gap between those two things. Correct. And Jamaica, New Zealand is an interesting comparison. i i don't know.
00:09:40
Speaker
i think this Jamaica team who we're about to talk about, we can talk about, yeah are not exactly going to... bowl you over in the box
Jamaica's Strategy Against New Caledonia
00:09:49
Speaker
um with anything great. They're just, we we saw them get here because they couldn't really score a goal when they needed to in the mucky end of CONCACAF qualifying.
00:10:01
Speaker
So the next question I was going to ask, how's the field in Guadalajara? It's probably good enough, right? But there is sometimes when you watch Jamaica play in CONCACAF and it just kind of turns into like, kick the ball into the box and head it.
00:10:16
Speaker
Like we don't really have any other ideas, but even if you did that over 90 minutes against new Caledonia, like 120, probably over hundred twenty eight like how much dream do you got in you? And certainly, you know, we've heard us talk about it now for a few minutes. You could go look at the odds. I actually don't want to, we're not going to, we're going to pretend that there's a, there's, they don't matter for new Caledonia. But right, no one here no one here is is giving them ah a fair puncher chance. Certainly miraculous things have happened. What happened? I don't know. I mean, can they get can they get to halftime? I think maybe.
00:10:50
Speaker
Yeah. So I think their biggest problem is twofold, right? And I think the the number one thing that I look at and that I circle is 90 minutes is so long for semi-professional players. right and that has Can New Caledonia hang in a game for a half an hour?
00:11:09
Speaker
Can they even ask a couple of questions in a half an hour against a middling international side like Jamaica? Yeah, they probably can. But when you are not used to playing at this level for that amount of time, and when your two talismanic players are 37 and 36 in the French fifth and fourth tier respectively,
00:11:31
Speaker
90 minutes against fully professional players that have been preparing for moments like these for years. It's just so hard for the legs to matter. And you know, New Caledonia's manager looking down at the bench isn't going to find anything better to bring in.
Management Changes in Jamaica's Team
00:11:47
Speaker
Right. Like, right. Right. Everything you got goes into the start of this game and you just are hoping beyond hope that you somehow survive.
00:11:54
Speaker
And if you have to play another 30, that's even worse. Like I watched an unhealthy amount of oceanic qualifying and even in games among oceanic teams of semi pro and non-professional players, dudes were gassed by the end of 90 minutes.
00:12:10
Speaker
And so like doing that and taking that and throwing it into a Jamaica, it's, it's just not a great recipe. Spot on. And I think where you really, you start to look at this from the bigger picture, where it really matters is, can Jamaica get through this expending as little as possible?
00:12:28
Speaker
Because let's be honest, we, we, we, both of us here are sitting for, let's see how long new Caledonia can take it. And this game will be fun if it is interesting into the second half, but for Jamaica to have a chance, right? They need to beat DR Congo in altitude, right? It's not full L-alto. There's some mild altitude in Guadalajara.
00:12:49
Speaker
Probably not going to help New Caledonia either. just I was also going to say that. Their lungs are not going to be having a good time. But for Jamaica to get where they want to be, they need to expend as little energy as possible. And I think you know but think New Caledonia is not going to make that easier for them. I do not think they're the type of team that they can do that, and that's why they're here.
00:13:09
Speaker
But can they, can they get some players rested? Do they, can they, especially their attackers? Right. And we're going talk about this Jamaica squad. I think, you know, um,
00:13:21
Speaker
Damari Gray is the biggest name in attack. And then you have Leon Bailey from Aston Villa is definitely their most dynamic player. um I think the days of Mikael Antonio are gone, right? he's He's not here. So that's definitely one of their like key, key difference makers.
00:13:36
Speaker
um So you're really circling those two guys to try to do something. Can they play a half in this game? i think they have to play. I don't think you can just not roll them out there, but it'd be really great if they could get rested because they're they're going to be needed for the next one.
00:13:51
Speaker
um I don't know if there's any other metrics to evaluate Jamaica's performance than that for me is like, make sure no one gets hurt either. Yeah. So Jamaica are in a weird spot because Steve McLaren, who managed them through qualifying, did not get them to the World Cup in November and said, all right, cheers, lads. good.
00:14:11
Speaker
That was fun. He's gone and Jamaica have gone for the relatively unexpiring, but familiar set of hands. Rudolph speed, well-traveled, former assistant for Jamaica for a long time. He managed Cavalier in Jamaica for a long time.
00:14:27
Speaker
He takes the reins. He is not bringing any new ideas here. We're not reinventing the game of football. We're not attempting to instill any sort of new style of play to Jamaica. they are going to be what they have been, right? 4-4, 2-E, like you said, put the ball in the box a lot, run, press, but not super. like They're just kind of there. When you think of international football, but like they are what we've had expected from them. And that's for good or for worse, right?
00:14:56
Speaker
You look at what Jamaica has done in matches like these. They haven't been incredibly convincing lately against teams that they are significantly better than, right? They took care of Bermuda pretty easily in qualification, a pair of 4-0 wins. I think that is a pretty good starting point for this.
00:15:14
Speaker
But also, right, they only beat Guadalupe 2-1 in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. They had some World Cup qualification matches. They beat the Virgin Islands only one nil in an away match. So much of this comes down to how keyed in are Jamaica going to be for this? You would hope that it is excessively keyed in.
00:15:32
Speaker
But can I talk you into a scenario in which there's 2,700 people in the crowd on Thursday night in Guadalajara, Jamaica, are there, but are looking at Tuesday and New Caledonia are in it, and that can make things a bit more slippery than it should Probably.
00:15:50
Speaker
Probably. But I don't think I can talk you into a 90-minute survival from New Caledonia or even further 120 minutes because Jamaica, for all of their faults, are still a fully professional international team, right? And there's just a massive gulf of difference between these two teams because of that.
00:16:09
Speaker
Yeah, spot on. I mean, I think it's it's important to like consider how something could happen, right? This is this is the biggest game in New Caledown. Crazy, crazy upsets happen in sports sometimes. And I just think it'd be we we wouldn't be doing like our like full thinking if we didn't think about how it could happen. I think you you laid it out perfectly. It's just that even in the scenario where like everything goes right, that might get you to minute 70 at 0-0. Yeah. and we're like The worst guy in Jamaica's worst guy, the the lower players in Jamaica's teams are like USL championship players.
00:16:45
Speaker
Again, still just another level, right? Like, yeah. So that's kind of where, where it's at. How many players from new Caledonia would make the Jamaica team? It's maybe one, right? It's Fulgani who's playing in Saudi Arabia. Like that's the only person who would have, I think even a shout of making this Jamaica team that speaks to it. But as you said,
00:17:04
Speaker
What's the recipe? The recipe is a lot of saves from Rocky Nakina. The recipe is you are you know confident on the break. you are You're able to take advantage of a chance and score. I think New Caledonia have to score to have any sort of chance in this match.
00:17:19
Speaker
Even if they score, you then still have to see out whatever you score from. It's probably not happening. But again, look, you're listening to the World Cup after our podcast. We wouldn't be doing our job if we weren't spending 10 minutes breaking down New Caledonia and Jamaica.
00:17:31
Speaker
But that putting that aside of it, let's talk about DR Congo, who the winner of this match will play. They bounced back from disappointment against Senegal to beat Cameroon and Nigeria in basically the same type of situation in November, right? It was one-off matches. You have to win to stay alive. They came through that.
00:17:48
Speaker
They had a perfectly acceptable campaign at AFCON. They didn't set the world on fire, but they also didn't set their team on fire, which is probably ah a positive, right? They come home completely intact and and ready for this.
DR Congo vs. Jamaica: Strategies and Strengths
00:17:59
Speaker
Like Jamaica, there's no real squad news here. Unlike Jamaica, they still have their manager in Sebastian DeSaab. Top to bottom of it, I think DR Congo are probably slightly better than Jamaica in just about all the places that it matters.
00:18:11
Speaker
I also think in the general vibes category, they have the advantage here. So handicap for me, a DR Congo-Jamaica matchup in a potential final. I think you've got to give DR Congo like the 60-65% chance because of the legs and because they are a better team.
00:18:32
Speaker
And I think this Jamaica team is honestly suited better to play a team like DR Congo. Just a team better than them in general. They struggled in CONCACAF to use the ball to take control of the match. As you said, they just kind of play a very standard 4-4-2. Not a lot of like creativity.
00:18:51
Speaker
But this kind of game works against the ball where they counter and hit you with long balls. They win challenges. They cross. It's low risk. And they lean on their goalkeeping Andre Blake to make plays. And it's interesting because Congo are kind of that but better, right? Yes. DR Congo are also probably also at their best when they slightly underdogged in a match.
00:19:16
Speaker
Yeah, they are also a team that likes to counter play physicality, um use their strikers to go against it. So I think Jamaica actually, if when if when they get their new Caledonia, feel a little bit better about themselves in this game, kind of being the underdog role. I think that helps them a lot.
00:19:35
Speaker
the The issues is for Jamaica in this. And I think actually their center backs here are going to help them. Damian Lowe, former Union player, seasoned MLS guy, Ethan Pinnock, Brentford Reserve, helped them a lot to try to stop DR Congo's attackers. The issue here is the physicality in the midfield and and specifically on DR Congo's defense.
00:20:00
Speaker
I think Jamaica can hang, but the Jamaica counter works sometimes in CONCACAF, right? We've seen the best Jamaica teams... get a little deep I think DR Congo's center backs are very good. The level it takes to get them is like the Senegal attackers. yeah you know The best attackers in CAF.
00:20:22
Speaker
Jamaica's very less equipped. So for them, this is about... okay, we're going to try to contest the field and not give them anything easy. I think that'll work in their favor. But the longer it goes, the more DR Congo turned the screw.
00:20:37
Speaker
Can you survive and get that moment on the counter? And I do think, I think there will be two or three chances for Jamaica here. And also... you know it's not pretty, but when it comes to lump the ball in the box time, if they're down one with 10 minutes to go, that is a that is not going to kill you. Yes, you don't want to be trailing in the second half of a must-win game, but Dior Congo you know are are gettable in that sense. so To me, that's where I see this 60%, 70%. I think DR Congo will control the game without controlling the ball, per se. I think their midfield will be will be good. The other thing with Jamaica, again, they're they're wingers. um Leon Bailey, good player.
00:21:17
Speaker
Bobby Cordova-Reed, Bobby Reed now. He's 33 and he's 5'7". Physically, I'm worried about him being Jamaica's what third most important attacker in this game against DR Congo.
00:21:31
Speaker
That, to me, is is an issue. Yeah, and I think one thing that we've talked a lot about with DR Congo is they are good, right? like Yeah, they're just good. this starting a lot right Like, Chantel Mbemba, Arthur Mazuaku, Axel Thunzevi, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Mishak Elia, Cedric Bakunbu, Yohan Wiese.
00:21:50
Speaker
There are just really good players up and down this lineup. they abo nuga They're strong really from front to back. I don't think there's maybe outside of goalkeeper any particular weakness here.
00:22:02
Speaker
And they're also, I think, of it pretty darn consistent. And that helps in a situation like this because you know what you're going to get. To that consistency point, they just they can run with anyone. They can truly run with some of the best teams the world. What limits a team like Deer Kongo is when they get to that highest level.
00:22:22
Speaker
right they're They're not as complete in attack. right Your Meshack Elia winger is like a solid Europa-level winger, but he's not a Champions League-level winger. And Bakumbu is good, and Wisa is good. Wisa hasn't had the best here Newcastle, but they're not like full-on killers.
00:22:40
Speaker
The thing is, you look at the other side and it's like, you're really counting to me a lot on Leon Bailey to get like a star player moment. And if you're dear Congo, which do not let him get one on one. How long have Jamaica been count waiting right on Bailey to have the star player? Like, it just feels like we we've done the Jamaica podcast so many times. Oh, yeah.
00:23:03
Speaker
like to be To be fair, you know he's still getting good minutes at Asson Villa. And you watch him in the Premier League, he doesn't look out of place. I think he's a very explosive, very creative very creative. And I think for him, like he likes to cut inside and shoot from distance. On the right side, he's going to cut in and shoot.
00:23:20
Speaker
Dierkongo watches the tape and doesn't give him that and makes him get someone else involved, they should be okay. But, you know, if Dierkongo goes 70 minutes and it's still 0-0, then all Bailey needs is one moment and one-on-one. And I do think there is there is like a lot of footholds for Jamaica to find. This should be a very hotly contested game. The thing that's tough, the other thing, as you said, 100%.
00:23:45
Speaker
Dierkonga are consistent. They are very dogged to the task. They are very committed to defending every blade of grass. Jamaica are very sloppy and inconsistent in just the way their mental focus goes throughout match. Now, both of us would sit here and say, this is do or die. You should just be locked in. going focused, it's this one. But also, we've said that before about Jamaica too. Yeah.
00:24:09
Speaker
Yeah. And that's the other thing where like even if it is 0-0 and Jamaica survived for so long, if I'm betting on a team to make a mental error and not saying that like they're going to or I want i think that's like analysis, but like if a team is going to make a mistake, it's more likely to beat Jamaica as yeah the longer this goes. So there's just all those things pointing to Deer Congo are very well run. To beat them, you have to beat them.
00:24:33
Speaker
Jamaica, you do not have to beat them. They often beat themselves. yeah That is Like the essence of this match, basically where it's going. But, but Jamaica also have a goalkeeping advantage and that and some days, some days in international soccer, Andre Blake also not having the best year. He's certainly aged, but some days your your goalkeeper stands on his head and it gets in the whole game.
00:24:54
Speaker
it It just becomes a goalkeeper game. That is an avenue and that Jamaica have that Dear Congo don't. And also, any set piece for Jamaica, you have to get bodies on the goalkeeper and make him make a tough cash in traffic. there There are some avenues there for Jamaica to try to juice this in their favor.
00:25:11
Speaker
yeah can i Can I interest you in in in a couple sets of predictions here for this path? Yeah, let's see it. I think so. I think Jamaica will win 3-0 against New Caledonia. I think we'll get ah half-ish of interest from New Caledonia. But again, i the legs. like I've seen it so often. these small They just simply do not have the legs to compete in a game like this. So I think Jamaica will end up running away.
00:25:32
Speaker
i do think Jamaica will expend more energy against New Caledonia than DR Congo will in their friendly against Bermuda. And that's advantage to DR Congo. And then I i think DR Congo, I have them a tier above where Jamaica are. I think one or two i and L and DR Congo are going to the world cup. And then I think it gets really interesting because DR Congo in that group is is pretty fun.
00:25:53
Speaker
I think I'm with you. You said two Oh, I think one Oh for DR Congo in the, in that second leg. I think it'll be a good game. I think, I think Jamaica will make it difficult, but probably run out of gas.
00:26:05
Speaker
Vibes, right? I think we're back at Deer Congo on the vibes. All right. Whereas the first path was feels pretty straightforward, the second path, I think, is anything but.
00:26:16
Speaker
And as we head to Monterey event, it is completely wide open. We have Bolivia and Suriname with the winner to play Iraq. And the reward, a spot in what is probably the World Cup group of death alongside France and Senegal. But we'll deal with that when we get there. Getting there would, I think, be quite the feat. So let's talk Bolivia-Suradon, which we'll kick things off on Thursday.
00:26:41
Speaker
Bolivia andit have prepared like this is the biggest match in their history because for the last 30 years, this is the biggest match in their history.
Bolivia vs. Suriname: Preview and Analysis
00:26:50
Speaker
Oscar Vizhegas' side, I should say, they've done everything in their power to prep for this match.
00:26:55
Speaker
They have played four different non FIFA friendlies since November. They have played eight total friendlies since qualifying. They are, however, unfortunately plagued by the fact that they are fundamentally not very good, particularly when not playing at altitude.
00:27:11
Speaker
This squad is more or less what we know. Some interesting squad news. Bolivia legend, the aged Marcelo Martins Moreno actually made a comeback at the start of the year to try and get in this squad. The unretired after nearly two years joined up with Orienzi Petrolero in Bolivia, but did not make it into consideration. Carmelo Argaranhas is another player not in this Bolivia squad that I think is is perhaps a little interesting. He's a guy that I've been backing for some time. But the big names for Bolivia that we've come to expect, right? The guys who are taking the 40-yard pot shots in El Alto, Miguelito Terceros, Victor Abrego, Moises Paniagua, Héctor Cuechar, Ramiro Vaca, those guys are all here for Bolivia. The the back line, Aquin, Fernandez, Medina Rocha, intact. You've got a decision between Carlos Lampe and Billy Biscara in goal. It'll be interesting to see where he shake as leans there.
00:28:03
Speaker
But this Bolivia team is exactly what we expect. Are there players in Bolivia that are at the level of Suriname in Iraq? Probably. um Can we trust them to win two games in the span of five days not at home? Something that they've probably never done in their entire history as a national team? yeah Probably not.
00:28:26
Speaker
It's unlikely. It just... you You've seen them. I've also. But you have seen them play away from Bolivia in combo ball all the time. Yeah. And it's the same.
00:28:38
Speaker
They run really hard, defend really hard. And it's... Unfortunately, like, they are... i for the longest time have been the worst talent team in South America, which is again, very, very damning that they are here over teams like Chile, Peru, and Venezuela, like just on talent, they are worse than those teams.
00:29:00
Speaker
Do not like you listener know this. They got here because of their home field advantage yes as stated to to top the podcast. It is a hilarious thing to put that team not at altitude. Yeah.
00:29:11
Speaker
However, ah well, can they win two games with five games? The answer is no. The answer is very, very unlikely no. Just tough. However... The team they're playing, Suriname, is nowhere near as good as the teams that they have to defend against on the road in common ball. I think the Suriname team is solid. We've always liked the talent in Suriname. We've always said, oh, they've got a bunch of European guys. they you know They play some European Dutch-looking football.
00:29:39
Speaker
you know They do some total soccer. They use the ball. And then every time it gets to the 70th minute, the Suriname guys run out of gas and they not quite enough good enough to score, not quite good enough to just defend for 90 minutes.
00:29:51
Speaker
So there's hope. It's interesting, right? I think i think Bolivia, yeah again, like it's the underdog way in a way that even more than Jamaica are suited to play the underdog way. like Bolivia know nothing else. It is a deep, deep block, and they're not even trying to kind of commit numbers to the attack.
00:30:11
Speaker
You're going to give them some space from 30. They're going to take it, right? It's like a very low-risk way of playing in a way that I think... the deep block organization that they've rehearsed against teams with much better players is going to be very tough for Suriname to undo.
00:30:27
Speaker
The question is like Suriname are almost better in, in an open play kind of game. I don't think they're going to enjoy, you know, breaking down this low block. I think that's actually a very hard challenge.
00:30:38
Speaker
And one thing we will never be able to question with but the the commitment will be there, right? Like they are a one ah hundred percent bought into this. They understand that chances for them to make the world cup are not,
00:30:50
Speaker
Like that doesn't happen every day, right? Doesn't happen super often. So because of that, I think they're going to be bought in. The eternal question that I think we've kind of always had with Bolivia is what is their actual level, right? Like, okay, I know that they are the 10th best team in South America, but what is that equivalent to when you take them out of the South American bubble, right? Like,
00:31:11
Speaker
Are they better than Suriname? Are they as good as Iraq? I think the answer is probably no, but I'm not 100% sure yet. And this is going to go a long way to doing that. Let's talk a bit more about Suriname a bit.
00:31:24
Speaker
They, much like their CONCACAF counterparts in Jamaica, made a change at manager. Stanley Menso is out. Hank Tenkate is back. I, as a smart person,
00:31:34
Speaker
host of the World Cup After Dark podcast, consulted the only man you can consult for CONCACAF things. And that is our good friend of the show, John Arnold, for his opinion on both Surdom and Jamaica. I think what stood out here from John is ah the Hank Tenkate opinion, which is, well, he's had a long background and perhaps brings some interesting new ideas.
00:31:55
Speaker
L-O-L. Which basically means we are getting the same kind of thing that we're getting with the Jamaican manager in that Hank Tenkate is not coming in to reinvent the wheel. This is still going to be the vaguely Dutch ideas, but at a level that's significantly less than the Dutch level. Up and down the squad, they're probably more talented than Bolivia are.
00:32:15
Speaker
ah Becker, Paul, who's suspended against Bolivia, Margaret, Pinas. These are good players playing in good situations club-wise. They play something resembling cohesive football. That probably helps in what will be a sterile FIFA condition, right? Like this isn't going to be played on a bad pitch. This isn't played at 13,000 feet.
00:32:34
Speaker
Neutral state probably favors Suriname. You mentioned the low block. Mixed bag for Cernum against low blocks and in what we've seen. This is probably going to be as good as a low block as they've seen, right? Bolivia, as you said, em it are well-drilled in that sort of strategy.
00:32:48
Speaker
I think this is a really, really interesting match between two teams that at the start of qualification, this was the goal for them, was to make it to something like this, to still have a World Cup chance in March.
00:32:59
Speaker
I think it's completely wide open, and to be completely honest with you, nothing really would surprise you in this game, but I think I'm slightly backing Cernum. I think I'm with you. And the type of game it is, is a difficult one for Suriname, as we've said multiple times now. I think Becker is your guy to watch for sure if he can do something to unlock it. i think the other thing that you see with Bolivia is that they can get undone by set pieces. Like you look at Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador.
00:33:27
Speaker
That's one of the ways they hurt them. I'm not sure Suriname is a particularly physically imposing team. Like, I don't think that's something they have in their bag against Bolivia. So I do think like...
00:33:38
Speaker
Bolivia can survive ah for a long time. I think Suriname is going to have to come up with a great shot from distance or a really nice interplay down the wings, which they can do and they can do, but it's going to be tough.
00:33:51
Speaker
um The other thing I think is that Bolivia are... going to do some dark arts things. yeah Like, out of all the games, you know, this is World Cup after dark. This is the Intercontinental Playoff. Nothing here was going to be 100% smooth sailing on the field. I think Bolivia are going to be very physical in their challenges. I think they're going to try to get in Suriname's head. I think Suriname is a team that...
00:34:14
Speaker
you know, hasn't really performed at ah in the crunch time moments. Like if we're just going to vibes analysis, um when it comes to... Look at how they got here, right? Like they got here on a miracle goal down three goals to seal their spot. Like they didn't necessarily get here. They kind of failed at their task. And then you look at their gold cup performances in their biggest games. they They played well, but didn't get the result done. So there's not really that proof of concept for Suriname other than the, hey, we look really nice sometimes when we play. And that looks great. But Bolivia is very much a hardened team. like
00:34:46
Speaker
they are They are very tough. And also, like you give them an inch, they will take a foot. will You touch them around the box, they will go down. like They will try to bait you into a red card. And so I just think Suriname has to be ready for those kinds of things. If there was a lot of extracurriculars in this game, I would not be surprised if they benefited Bolivia somehow.
00:35:09
Speaker
So I just think... Yeah, it's maybe 55, 60 Suriname. And i think you look at the the kind of bigger scope of things and it really turns into a toss up like 50, 50. Let's see. Give Bolivia one goal lead with 20 minutes to go and see how much football you can play in those 20 minutes. Yeah. that's Yeah, exactly. That's the other thing. Yeah, they will time-wasting of the highest order. So the the thing that that what helps Sarnam if it's they're not chasing late, I think they got a better bench, right? The squad, just the bench is a little bit better. They've got other guys that are at the same level.
00:35:44
Speaker
Bolivia has a bench, but it's more guys that can kind of just run. Like, Bolivia bolivio will run for 90 minutes, but the quality is quality is tough. So, in a sense, I'm with you. This is maybe one of the most fascinating games to learn about two teams that just are very, very hard to quantify how good they are. And would never have crossed paths, really, in any other scenario, right? And that's what makes it so fundamentally interesting, I think.
00:36:11
Speaker
And then, I think, to... up the interest potion even more. Waiting in the final is Iraq, who are by no means a juggernaut, right? You want the stereotypical ninth best team in Asia, eighth best team in Asia?
00:36:26
Speaker
Boy, I've got Iraq for you. It has been quite the journey for Iraq to get here, not just on the pitch with their long, drawn-out qualification campaign, but but also off it because since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, it has been back and forth between FIFA, the Iraqi Federation, Iraq's Australian manager, Graham Arnold, another great World Cup after dark character.
00:36:47
Speaker
In the end, what happened after some hand wringing where Iraq didn't want to travel, their domestic based players didn't want to have to leave from Baghdad, et cetera. What happened was the domestic and Middle East based players of Iraq all got together basically on the Iraq-Saudi Arabia border.
00:37:03
Speaker
And they took a FIFA chartered private jet to Monterey. They are in Monterey. They have made it.
Iraq's Playoff Preparation and Strategy
00:37:09
Speaker
They will be there. They will play. FIFA basically said, yeah, we can't really do anything about the calendar at this point. We're three months from the World Cup. We can't delay this anymore. ah But here we can bring a plane from Saudi Arabia if you can get there. And Iraq got there. Put all of that aside. And admittedly, the word that is doing a lot of work here.
00:37:26
Speaker
This emit is the same organized, strong, but kind of toothless Iraq side that is dependent on set pieces. And it's two forwards, Hussein and Ali, to score goals.
00:37:39
Speaker
Whether that is demonstrably better than either Suriname or Bolivia, I really don't know. And I'm going to be fascinated to find out. I'm with you. The answer to that question is I don't know. And if you think you know if you or you know someone that knows or you've got a magic number that spits out that Iraq iraq is going to win, please please tell me how. um it's It's so hard to quantify. Also, just because we see Iraq playing...
00:38:08
Speaker
Asian teams and it's just a different kind of game. Yeah. And they are here. What we know about Iraq is they want to play against the ball, right? They, they're not great with it. They're not particularly athletic, like in terms of overwhelming athleticism, but they're very competent on the counter.
00:38:24
Speaker
Hussein is a very good counter playing center forward. Um, and they defend solidly in numbers and organization. that's how they survived from the blade of They're also from the blade of grass. like like You mentioned it, like the blade of grass. that de like Iraq is from the same vein of play. They're going to contest every inch on the pitch. They might not do it super skillfully, but they'll contest it right and that makes things interesting.
00:38:47
Speaker
yeah They're not as much of a deep block, like sit super deep and defend. i mean they They have that against a team better than them. That's not either Bolivia or Suriname. It's a more like, hey, even if we're not like as physical as a team like Dior Kongo, we want to make you uncomfortable at every space on the field, hoping you will give us a transitional opportunity. We get four guys in the box off of an opportunistic thing.
00:39:12
Speaker
We score. They create one-on-ones or two-on-ones very well in this way. So against Bolivia or Suriname, those teams are not going to let you play anything close to that game. It's going to be, a all right, we know you're a blade of grass team.
00:39:29
Speaker
Here, the blades of grass are all in our like all in our third, and like you you can you can come and attack us. We're going to sit back. I don't think Suriname are actually very good at playing that game.
00:39:40
Speaker
Bolivia are. So Bolivia-Iraq would be very fascinating. they would also probably set the sport of football back a good decade. Yeah. Suriname-Iraq is an interesting game from a very like clash of styles. and I think Suriname are good enough to play some of the ball. and I think Iraq will let them play some of the ball. and It will be interesting to see, Suriname get turned over or do they work through the press?
00:40:04
Speaker
That's a very like aesthetically interesting game where I think... you give Iraq a slight edge. Iraq-Bolivia is some heinous soccer stuff. It's woke up out of the dark, man. It's straight in the veins. but like like I could tell you like Bolivia will make it miserable for Iraq to score, and Iraq will not like want to score. Yeah.
00:40:26
Speaker
umm Araka also has been decent at set pieces. I think it's not going to be super plus against either of those teams. So I find it to be very hard for Araka to to to like find an easy out against Bolivia.
00:40:41
Speaker
Against Suriname, I think... that could be a multi-goal game. That could be a really fun game. That could be a classic World Cup After Dark kind of game in the way that Iraq-Bolivia is a classic pejorative World Cup After Dark kind of game. So, so like...
00:40:59
Speaker
It goes back all the way around. we We could talk about Iraq, like what we've seen from them. They're just not good enough against any of the great teams. Like, yeah, they can get a draw against South Korea.
00:41:10
Speaker
They can. can they Can they win against a better team in Asia? Not really. Do they have a style that's particularly like impressive? No. The thing about them, I will say, is they're pretty competent. like That helps them.
00:41:27
Speaker
I don't know, like, what what would you put it against either of those teams? Well, yeah. 55, 60, I mean, the legs advantage a little bit. Yeah, so working in Iraq's favor here, obviously, is the fact that they only have to play one game to make the World Cup. Like, I think you have to make them favorites from this path because of that in and of itself.
00:41:43
Speaker
But again, and this is kind of like, this is the thesis of this podcast where you and I have debated this question for so long. what How can I compare the 8th best team in Asia and the 7th best team in Connable and the 9th best team in Connable? What is that actually worth? We're about to find out, right? Because they're all getting thrown together in a three-team pod and we're going to figure out who's good enough to make the World
Unpredictability and Historic Opportunities in Playoffs
00:42:09
Speaker
a Cup.
00:42:09
Speaker
And that's what's so fascinating about this is legitimately any of these three teams making the world cup would not surprise me from it. Like it would surprise me in the net of, wow, they made the world cup because it's been a long path and all that. But these three teams in this situation over five days in Monterey, Mexico,
00:42:27
Speaker
Anything can happen and I wouldn't come away from it completely shot. I think I slightly back Iraq, but also I think the off the field stuff has probably weighed a lot on them and has made things difficult over the past couple of weeks and months that I don't think really helps.
00:42:44
Speaker
And I think also it has to be pointed out here that for these three national teams in particular, these games that they are about to play are the biggest games that they have played in a generation at least and in some times, particularly for Suriname, ever in the history of their national team.
00:43:04
Speaker
I don't know how to weigh that. I don't know where that should factor in, if that could factor in positively or negatively, but I think it's a point that has to be made. I think it's a very good point. And i I think just all of that, the way we're talking about it, in the way that the first path, I think Jamaica, if they get through, are going to feel the uphill challenge of a team like DR Congo on short rest.
00:43:27
Speaker
I think if Bolivia got through here, I think there would be some... vibes to them, some some aura energy that would be very tough for Iraq to come in cold, cold into that game against a team that is like... Bolivia are so, so focused. Now, we we know it doesn't work on the road as as easy as it does for them, but they are so focused and so committed, and that's how they got there. They're just...
00:43:56
Speaker
They're really, really tough to break down. And I think they just slide into that mindset, embracing that so hard. Like, hey, when's the last time you've you've like thought about soccer this seriously? Like, that is yeah is a silly question. But like, are you are you like, all right, you you watched us play out there on you know the the early day.
00:44:18
Speaker
Congrats, you haven't played a meaningful match at this level in so long. And now you've got now you've got to beat us. You've got to break us down. And we are we are going to we're going to give it to you. So that, to me, is a little worrisome. I think, obviously, you know I'm not going to discredit Suriname. I think Suriname could, again...
00:44:36
Speaker
take the game to an Iraq in a way that Bolivia can't. But there is some of that mentality that you just hit on that I worry about a little bit. And you have to consider the the factors of of the larger than soccer stuff happening that you've described.
00:44:49
Speaker
i I think that's very, very difficult. And we've we've seen, you know we've mentioned it in the in the European podcast, if you listen before to this or you listen after, a lot of parallels. Those things are linked and the pressure can manifest itself in unexpected ways is the the only way you can say it. And I just think against a team like Bolivia, there is ah there is an unwaveringness to their belief that I know i know I've seen Suriname kind of falter.
00:45:18
Speaker
i i I know with Bolivia, there is there isn't that wave wavering in the confidence. You've seen Bolivia falter, but you've not seen the belief falter, right? I've never seen the belief falter in Bolivia. Like Bolivia, what makes them so unique is they go out and they get smashed 5-0 on Thursday and they're back home on Tuesday and they are bought in regardless. and Exactly. that is like That is a key thing to highlight. Yeah.
00:45:40
Speaker
so And again, I think Iraq are bought in too because again, this is a massive moment for them as well. And that's where I really don't know how to handicap these three teams because i can just talk myself in circles around all of it. Ah, but Surdam play the best, but Iraq have the day off and are committed. Ah, but Bolivia, they're really buying it. You know, you just talk yourself in circles. I'm just very, I'm excited to sit down and watch these matches in a way that I have not been excited to watch matches in
Anticipation for Upcoming Matches and Narratives
00:46:09
Speaker
quite some time. And I'm very excited for it.
00:46:10
Speaker
I think that's the main point. Couldn't agree more. ah this These three teams in particular, like it's just goingnna tell us not tell it it's honestly not going to tell us anything because in one game sample sizes, like we're actually not going to learn anything, but we're gonna think we learned so, so much. Right, right. We're going make conclusions that'll last us four years until we do this all again. I have the 2030 world cup. Um, look, I don't think you're getting very many 45 minute intercontinental playoff previews that also featured nearly 10 minutes of new Caledonia talk, but that is what we bring to you here on the world cup after dark podcast. And then I will be back to recap it when all is said and done.
00:46:50
Speaker
If you like, what we do here on the World Cup After Dark podcast. You can support us, patreon.com slash WCAD, $3 a month. Access to subscriber-only perks. You can also rate, review, subscribe, all the good buttons. Click them and let us know what you do. Before we go, Amit, can I get a a second path a second path pick from you?
00:47:11
Speaker
oh man. I've talked myself into Bolivia, truly. But um why not? Let's get a little weird. i' got I'm going... I'm sticking my... I think they're... I'm sticking my claim at a team that I don't see away ever. Oh, no.
00:47:24
Speaker
And then Miss Flag's been planted. Bolivia's carries. I've given them the World Cup After Dark podcast kiss of death. So, ah sorry to Bolivia. that anyone. I'm taking Iraq over Suriname because despite my my pure joy of preaching the good gospel of El Alto, I have also seen years and years of Bolivian football. And if there is one thing that is consistent,
00:47:46
Speaker
perhaps even more consistent than that unwavering belief we talked about. It is that undeniable ability to get so close and to get you talking about them only to fall completely short. And that is exactly what is about to be in front of them. We've talked about them. We've picked them up. Ah, well, they might have a chance.
00:48:04
Speaker
You don't know how many times I've said those exact words talking about their World Cup chances. And guess what, Abit? They've got a chance, and they're probably going to fall short because it feels like they always do. So I'll take Iraq over Suriname, but I am very excited for the ride, as I know you are.
00:48:18
Speaker
We'll touch base at the end. Thanks, as always, Amit, to you for joining me, and thanks the listeners for making us a part of your international football routine.
Conclusion and Podcast Support
00:48:26
Speaker
Enjoy the matches, and we'll see you on the other side.