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TEAM STATS BREAKDOWN feat. Stevie Fizz (The Draft Doctors) | The Holmes Files Ep. 2
3.7k Plays9 months ago
Two-time top 10 AFL Fantasy finisher and 2021 Runner-Up Kyle "Holmesy" Holmes continues his one-on-one interview series with members of the AFL Fantasy community.
On this episode of the Holmes Files, Stevie Fizz joins the conversation, talking about the team stats that often go overlooked when breaking down which players truly have upside.
Stevie Fizz is the Co-Founder of The Draft Doctors, a staple of the fantasy footy community for nearly a decade. Steve's not typically an AFL Fantasy Classic player, but many of his insights are highly transferrable to all styles of fantasy footy!
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Transcript
Introduction to Holmes Files
00:00:17
Speaker
Hey, good day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here, back for another edition of the Holmes Files. Got a very special guest on today. I wanted to kind of get out of our little classic bubble and really deep dive with someone that, you know, sees the game from a bit of a different angle with
00:00:35
Speaker
you know, the industry that they're in with the draft sense. And I had a look and unfortunately Cam wasn't available. I looked at the top 40 most influential social media fantasy coaches.
Stevie Fizz's Background in Fantasy Sports
00:00:48
Speaker
And yeah, he's not interested, but I've gone one level down. I've got Stevie Fizz here. Mate, how are you going? I'm doing good. I'm a little bit, I feel like I need to do a workout after that intro. It's like an 80s montage. It's like some weights or something.
00:01:04
Speaker
Yeah, it does pump you up and we never used to get to listen to it before. Dossie would just put it in post-production, but it's good now. It pumps us up a bit. So for those of you that don't know, you might not know Stevie Fizz because at The Draft Doctors, they absolutely hate new listeners and they do everything they can to ensure that we, you know, the 69 of us that originally were listening back in the day, stay loyal. Why don't you just introduce yourself a bit and let our listeners know who you are.
00:01:29
Speaker
Yeah. So my name is Steve, obviously run the draft doctors over there. Stata was telling me before we coming into our 10th calendar year of running. Uh, so been playing fantasy sports since forever. Like most of us, uh, and most of your guests started being interested in American fantasy sports originally. I was a baseball, uh, play base fantasy baseball to start. And, um, yeah, it got into footy, um, still play fantasy football, tried fantasy NBA and all that sort of stuff. So.
00:01:59
Speaker
Yeah, I love the draft format and all the variations it can bring and battle my way through season after season of classic on the side. Don't tell anyone. Yeah, mate. Look, we know you secretly love classic. It's no, it is no secret, but have you ever actually, have you had much success with classic before or you've purely just draft? I'm not, probably not really, uh, because I always sort of forget about it. I did have, I was going through it. I'm in super coach.
Draft vs Classic Fantasy Formats
00:02:26
Speaker
I came.
00:02:27
Speaker
like 500 one year and in AFL Classic I came like 551 year. But I always just forget to do my team and I'm just terrible at it. Draft's so much more forgiving. Yeah. Yeah, no, it can be a bit much. So I thought we'd start with
00:02:45
Speaker
You know, maybe trying to link your talents with draft doctors and finding players with value into the classic realm. I've listened to you a lot over the years and I kind of get stuck in this mindset where I'm listening to you guys talk and you're talking about all these players with value.
00:03:01
Speaker
you know, whether that's value because in a draft sense, you can you can pick them up on the bench really late and potentially they become rosterable. Whereas we know in classic, if you're picking those players and they don't really improve or or they don't go as well as first anticipated, then that can put you in a in a really big hole. So what are you looking at for value when you're when you're deep diving in draft in these players that we might not look at as much in classic?
00:03:24
Speaker
Yeah, it's a really good point. Just draft lets you make so many mistakes, really. Say you're playing with a five man forward line. Well, instead of choosing the key forward, who will battle along and give you, you know, let's say the F-35 value, you're looking at picking this year, maybe you're Bailey Humphrey, you're Philippu, whoever can get that midfield time, or we know the halfback role is kind of in vogue.
00:03:51
Speaker
Whoever's not going to be playing in the forward line, that's who we want. But I think we talk in absolutes so much in fantasy football, but really we don't know a hell of a lot. And just because something happens in the preseason doesn't mean it doesn't change round one. So I think that's certainly the attraction to draft is you can just take those shots on players and if it works out, it works out. And if it doesn't, well, you just go grab another player. I was in classic, if you're doing that, you've lost.
00:04:21
Speaker
Do you find that you take a punt on these players in classic more than some other coaches would because you're in that sort of draft mindset? Maybe, maybe. It's an interesting one. I sort of thought about that. I think I choose players with low upside for bench rolls. Like say, I know the keybacks playing, so I'll pick him, but he doesn't generate any cash. I will probably choose mid prices who won't rise just because I love
00:04:49
Speaker
watching the player. So I'm pretty bad at that. I'll go to the top of the tree at the guy who has no value. There's so much we learn every year, right? Like we're always, always learning. Like let's say Bon, you, you start with Bon and he averages 114 or 112 or whatever. So he drops five points. Well, that's not going to kill you in draft. You can still captain him every single week, but in classic you're losing money or whatever. And maybe that's a bad pick.
00:05:18
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Well, other coaches get him slightly cheaper later on down the year and we know it's a value-based game.
Advanced Player Analysis Techniques
00:05:24
Speaker
Um, so I've spoken to Dossie a little bit over the years, unfortunately, and he likes to tell me that, you know, the, the data that you look at is, it's pretty intense. You're, you're looking at a lot of the stuff that potentially us as more, well, not casual coaches, but some of us that don't have a lot of time aren't really looking there. What's the sort of data that you're, you're deep diving in to, to look and analyze at these players?
00:05:47
Speaker
So probably, so obviously we started the CBA's a few years ago. That was pretty cool, but I really, well, yeah, well, we'll talk. I was looking at a couple of years ago, we started looking at, um,
00:06:04
Speaker
market share. And I think other people are starting to look at that from a fantasy points perspective. But I like looking at it from a team perspective, say, if they're doing X, the team lays X amount of tackles or takes X amount of marks. If a player is taking too much of a percentage out of that, then they're likely to regress. And just and that doesn't always mean the fantasy points line up. If we look at last year, Sam Barry was a popular name. I was
00:06:33
Speaker
not interested in Sam Barry. He just had too many tackles for what he was doing within the team structure. He wasn't even in the team later on, but he wasn't performing particularly well when he was in the team. I think it's those sort of things you've got to look at. There's only so many possessions that are available. If you look at the best fantasy scorers, they're doing something that's completely
00:06:57
Speaker
out of the realm of what you could predict. Like it's, yeah, especially uncontestable. Yeah. The market share one's interesting. I'll admit I've kind of looked into it a little bit more over the last sort of season and a bit. And I found that it's, it's quite good at highlighting when a player, like you said, is doing something out of the norm.
00:07:16
Speaker
Um, and you know, predict predicting maybe a little bit of a regression if they can't keep it up, but it's not terribly good at highlighting the sort of breakouts and finding those underpriced players because who really knows where they can get to. So I think we still have a lot to play out with this whole market share, but it's very, it's very popular in the States with your sports like basketball and stuff, but we know basketball only really has what five players on a court at the time. The teams are much smaller. There's far less variables going on.
00:07:43
Speaker
compared with AFL, which has, you know, 22, 23 players, and it's played over such a big, big amount of time. So, so on that, then I've listened to your solo pod, the one that you said that no one would listen to, and it turned out to be your highest rating show of all time. Where have you been putting your time and effort this year in terms of analyzing your stats? Yeah, so probably this year we've really moved into how the team plays, I guess I say. So really focusing on how many
00:08:12
Speaker
rut contests there are or stoppages, whatever you want to call it. And the ball movement of teams, so how meters per disposal, it's probably a pretty, maybe it's useful, maybe it's not, but I think it tells us something.
Team Performance Metrics
00:08:26
Speaker
So if you're, if you've got a lot of stoppages, the midfield is going to be concentrated around
00:08:31
Speaker
stoppage. So if there's more of them, theoretically, there's more midfield points in this year, you saw the Bulldogs go from say mid table, sorry, from 2022, went from mid table to this year or last year where they were, I think just below Adelaide second and reduced that midfield group and you saw Bont had a massive season, Tim English was the best scorer, Tom Liberatore had just a fantastic season. But on the flip side, like the halfbacks
00:09:01
Speaker
They were okay, but they weren't really what you'd call top 15 sort of options. Whereas on the flip side, you look at some of these teams that have low meters per disposal like this. And then generally the battlers, although St Kilda was in there, and that's where a lot of our good defenders are coming from. Conversely, the high meters per disposal team, the midfielders even in a concentrated group are often kind of battling.
00:09:29
Speaker
Um, to, to really push those, say one 10 scores that you might be looking for in your classic formats, but the halfbacks are still able to do pretty well. Yeah. So I suppose putting a team on that, would that be kind of like the, the old Richmond model where it was pretty much run and gun, get the ball long, keep the ball chaos moving. And you know, we saw the Jaden shorts batch of hoolies kind of feast a little bit off the halfback, but the midfielders kind of struggled because the ball was just always in motion.
00:09:55
Speaker
Yeah, that's, that's kind of right. And look, there's always going to be outliers. Like if you looked at GWS, that's kind of how they went. Really tight midfield group, but Tom Green was still really pushing that 110 average. So there's no absolutes, but yeah, that, that is the same sort of model. So if you're looking at like, I love Lockie Whitfield this year, obviously second half was really big. People spoken about it, but I, like, I think he's a lock to be a top five defender.
00:10:24
Speaker
Yeah, right. Can you pick in with that early buy? Can you put your classic hat on and decide about the buyers? Yeah, that's the great question. There's so many of the good players I like this year that have that early buy. So he's in there at the minute, but you probably won't be when the whips are cracking. Mate, Stado won't like that. He won't like that at all, picking a player that has the early buy, the so-called buy round expert. Yeah, it's interesting. I've been listening to all your guys pod. So I'm trying to learn. I'm trying to get a bit better and
00:10:53
Speaker
Yeah, he's all about that avoidance of the early buy. So, yeah. Yeah, I still think there's a little bit to play out there. So, all right, let's start with the defenders then. So, going off what you've kind of figured out or what you're researching with the low stoppage teams, the defenders, the high scoring defenders are coming from the teams that have low stoppages and low meters gain. So, they're the ones that are chipping it around in the back half and not really moving forward with it and not having any stoppages, right?
00:11:23
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. Yeah. So on those metrics, who are you kind of looking at this year in terms of players that we might be able to look at for Classic? Yeah, it's an interesting one. I think a lot of them are kind of already there.
00:11:38
Speaker
to be honest, there wasn't a lot of, like, you know, what's the easiest thing to look at when you're talking about breakout players and so forth? It's player movement. Well, not many of the good players move clubs, if I'm perfectly honest. And it's also about having a look at what players, like, is there going to be a change of game plan? So I think
00:12:00
Speaker
you know will power someone we like and we expect them to be a higher you know that to fall into the lowest stoppage probably richmond model um but like i said lucky with field um lucky ash pretty good but he's sort of a mid-price thing i'll mostly be
00:12:18
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not sure what my team is. I should bring up my team, actually. I have got one. Let's do that, actually. That would be a good exercise. I don't think any of these guys really fit that bill, except for Lucky Whitfield. I mean, Freeman were pretty bad, so I've got Chapman and Young in there at the minute. So they're probably the only ones. I suppose it'll be about sort of analyzing team game plans early to see, because we know teams change it up. Adelaide went from not being very fantasy relevant to being highly relevant
Team Strategy and Player Impact
00:12:43
Speaker
last year because of their stoppage game.
00:12:47
Speaker
You know, you'd think that Freo probably have to change it up a little bit, whether or not they have the ability to do so is a different story. Same with Hawthorne, but I suppose you believe that, you know, these struggling clubs, although they might want to play a certain way, the talent and the ability of their list kind of dictates that when the whips start cracking, the games get hard, they sort of fall back into that mold.
00:13:08
Speaker
Yeah, I think a couple of the guys who are really super interesting this year, aren't even listed as defenders. So you got Carl Ayman at Hawthorne, and they made that move last year. And I think a lot has been spoken about Carl Ayman already. And I don't think what Hawthorne did at the end of last year is exactly what's going to happen. But he should present as a good option. Bailey Scott, his second half was pretty lights out really. Again, only listed as a midfielder, but he is training in that North Melbourne defense, which has been a bit of a goldmine lately. And then you look at like your McCurches,
00:13:37
Speaker
uh, and so forth there. So there's, there's certain like North has such a hot team to watch, right? Everyone's talking about North players. Yeah. Well, I mean, they've got us considering Zach Fisher of all people just because, just because they've got that, that the way they play and they, the way they possess the ball in that back line. But yeah, I'm much hotter on a Bayley Scott than a Zach Fisher. It's just unfortunate that he's mid only and priced at 85 for our classic side. You know, in terms of draft, I'm, I'm more than happy to take a punt there knowing that more than likely he'll get defender status.
00:14:07
Speaker
throughout the season. Let's look at, let's look at St Kilda. So St Kilda, if we're looking at overall fantasy points with a high scoring team by an absolute mile, they, I think they averaged 16-40 compared to the league average, which was 15-40. And I think even the second highest side being Carlton potentially were around that 15-80 mark.
00:14:28
Speaker
So do you think that the St Kilda, and obviously we're just speculating, but do you think they're going to play that way again and they're going to score in that way? Or do you see that they're potentially going to come back to the pack a little bit and have to change the way they play? Yeah, it's really interesting when with St Kilda, you can know, we know Ross is a pretty defensive coach and everyone scores low against him. So I find it hard to believe that they weren't, especially when you look at, they brought in Liam Henry, who was probably their
00:14:55
Speaker
Maybe they're big off season recruit and you would expect him to be an outside player. Um, they did have some issues with their forward line in member who was missing a lot of time and King was missing a lot of time. So maybe they go a bit more direct. I'm not sure on that one. That's an interesting one. Um, I can see some kill to go on either way there. They fall back a bit or they, you know, push a bit harder. So I'm not sure on some Kilda.
00:15:21
Speaker
Yeah, because there's a there's a few relevant players. Obviously, Jack Sinclair is going to be a defender premium for us, but, you know, priced at one or two. It's a pretty big price tag to pay. And then you've got Nasir Wang and a Miller as well, who most of most coaches are predicting him to just keep going on his merry way and develop. I'm still a little bit unsure. It's pretty hard to average above 90.
00:15:42
Speaker
Although he's done it in his second season, we know that fantasy is not always linear, but I mean, if St Kilda changed the way they play and those fantasy points start to come back down more towards the norm, then naturally you would assume that those two players might sort of regress a little bit. What are your thoughts there? Yeah, look, I love, I love Jack Sinclair. I've still got him in pretty highly in the ranks. Wangadim Miller, I don't have him very high in the other format, but I've still got him
00:16:06
Speaker
I still get him reasonable. I find it hard to believe they change from what they've done. And let's say they have a worse run in terms of win losses. I don't think they're going to be more aggressive. Yeah. So I find it hard to believe that he's a class act man. I was all over him last year, like the player. So I find it hard to go away from him, to be honest.
00:16:28
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, it's just interesting. Let's go into Sicily
Potential Player Regressions
00:16:32
Speaker
a little bit. You've been on record saying that you believe Sicily is going to regress a little bit, potentially with Carlaemon going back there and the fact that Sicily's had marks that were pretty out of the normal. Is that solely the reason why I think he's not going to go as well this year?
00:16:48
Speaker
Yeah, it is. It is. You know, they've got other young players developing as well. So I see that happening. The other thing that doesn't get mentioned heaps, which we haven't talked about in fantasy circles is black hardwicks moving forward. So all the kick ins are going to be available in that backline. So maybe there's a world I don't see it. I'd certainly start without him for your classic format and hope to bring him in because I still think he finishes top six, but he probably won't be two or three. I'll put it that way.
00:17:15
Speaker
Yeah, it's pretty safe to assume that he's going to be there thereabouts for the top six, but paying a 105 price tag in Classic, maybe you can draft, not that big a deal if you've sort of got day costs, Sicily and Sinclair as the top three that are going to be a little bit further than everyone else. Maybe you don't get hurt as much, but in Classic, if you start a player price at 105 and he drops back to 98, 100, then that's a failed pick if you're going to be losing money on everyone else. Yeah, and I don't think it's out of the world that he drops low 90s.
00:17:46
Speaker
So, I mean, I see that well. Yeah. Yeah. A hundred percent. And I know we don't, well, it came out on Twitter the other day that the with without stats aren't the greatest metric, but there was, it was pretty evident last year that when Jane was at James blank or blank, whoever it was played as fullback, Cicely was, you know, able to play as that third tall and release a lot more. But, uh, when he didn't play, Cicely had to sort of lock down a bit more and his scoring suffered. So who knows? Maybe, maybe he does have to lock down a little bit more, which could potentially affect his ceiling at times as well.
00:18:16
Speaker
Yeah, I was reading that they were going to try to, and scrimshaw into sort of a key defender. So there's a bit to play out there. I don't know. He's not best 22 surely. Surely. Who knows? Are there any other players that's, what about like a, so Carlton, Carlton were mid table stoppage team, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, but they, they trended the other way.
00:18:42
Speaker
They trends it away from it. Yeah. They made that switch. So they really went away from it and became more that fast ball movement, whatever you want to call it. Yeah. And it showed that. High meters game. So over the last five games, they were four for meters per disposal in terms of high ranking. So.
00:19:02
Speaker
Yeah, and they finished unbelievably on the way to, on the way to a prelim. So that makes it, yeah, pretty tough to look at a Nick Newman or, you know, potentially even a doc if he, if he gets defender status later on down the track. Well, I think there's a lot of players to avoid from Carlton. I know everyone's talking about Sam Walsh, but if you look at their tons scored over this period, like, like, and he's a quality player, don't get me wrong, and could finish as the top player, but
00:19:26
Speaker
There was a lot of guys who weren't doing what they were doing in the first half of the year, like your chair has dropped back a bit. And so I just, you know, I don't think it's the smash that people are talking about for that way. There it is. Fair enough. Steve Fizz hates Sam Walsh. We got that on the record. What'd you say? You said the other week when you were talking about if you're going to do a you suck show and I quote, you said, well, we don't, we don't ever miss. So there's not much for the we suck show.
00:19:54
Speaker
Yeah, we're getting better, I'll put it that way. We don't go through the ranking shows, that's where we'd get crushed. Then what else spices we used to be?
Early Fantasy Rankings Challenges
00:20:04
Speaker
We're just getting old and mellow. And the ranking shows as well, you do them so early. You can't expect them to be perfect when you're giving out content in December, early January with your rankings.
00:20:16
Speaker
Yeah, it's kind of funny that we, I mean, in a perfect world, we'd be doing two or three shows a week and we'd be doing them probably starting now rather than finishing them and having to go through an adjustment show where we go, Oh, well, we'll move this guy at 80 spots and that sort of thing. But kind of is how it is. Yeah. So on that, then just before we move into the midfield, are there any other sort of players that are maybe getting a little bit of hype at the moment or teams that you think are probably a bad idea to look at in classic?
00:20:44
Speaker
For the defense? In the defenders. Oh, just putting up my ranks, man. I probably should have just had him here from the start. That would have made life a bit easier, wouldn't it? Like I said, we don't like to prepare on this show. Yeah, I don't know. There's just guys who are kind of like, it's like Luke Ryan, right? I don't love him. But who else is there back there, right?
00:21:07
Speaker
I think he'd be good personally if Freya keep playing the same way that they do now that Young's gone in. He loves getting the ball. I can't see that changing. Yeah, probably Liam Duggan's the one I'm way off compared to everyone else. Everyone seems to love Liam Duggan. I'm just not convinced, man. Kitty Coleman's probably another one. I've got him ranked in at 23. Why are you not as hot on Liam Duggan? What changes last year to this year other than extra responsibility?
00:21:33
Speaker
Oh, I just think there's more players around. Like, he's just one of those, you know, there's just guys who you just don't have. Like, he's just like, Dossie hates, not hates, but you know, it doesn't get around Andy McGrath. He's just a guy like that for me. To sort of break out at this point, he's never been like the main guy using the ball out of defense and he's never been established in the midfield. So he's just kind of in no man's land. I guess now he could be the main guy out of defense. He's a good player.
00:22:03
Speaker
It's just not a guy I've loved for fantasy. I'll put that way. Yep. Fair enough. Kitty Coleman. You just think that there's potentially more mouths to feed at Brisbane than what we think and combine with them playing a real high stoppage game. Yeah. It's the stoppage game. That's the, that's the thing for me. Um, and look, if you miss it, like he's probably valuing fan in classic. So I'll probably have him. Oh, he's got the buy, but I don't love him in draft. Like I've got him behind Jordan Clark who I.
00:22:33
Speaker
I don't know if he's value, but I like him as a good pick. Yeah. Jordan Clark's an interesting one. Probably not enough value in classic, but with Hayden Young's 90 points going out of, out of defense, maybe he becomes that, that second distributor out there, but he's, he's been the one that teams have often targeted with a tag too, because he, he runs and he creates. Um, he's pretty important to what free I do. Yeah. Well, I mean, if I'm going to be down on Ryan, I have to kind of be in on someone else and that's Clark.
00:23:02
Speaker
And he went, and like you said, when Young moved out, he was really good. I think he was going at like 93 or something. So. Yep. No, it makes sense. Awesome. Well, let's leave the defenders there. Let's move into the, into the midfield. So we're looking at high stoppages and that, that makes sense. Adelaide were one of, one of, if not the highest stoppage team last year. And that showed with both Laird and Dawson essentially being able to go 110 plus and the scoring not really dropping too much when Matt Crouch came in at the back end of the year as well.
00:23:32
Speaker
What other teams should we be looking at here with our midfielders? Well, that's kind of interesting because if you looked at say the end of the season, Gold Coast were a massive, massive stoppage team where they sort of been mid to high throughout the season. So, but again, that's not dimmer style. So it's all the teams you'd expect. It's the Bulldogs, it's Adelaide, it's Brisbane. Sydney could be a cheeky one.
00:23:59
Speaker
Yep. So you might get, you know, obviously they got Brody Grundy, they brought in Taylor Adams. North Melbourne, surprisingly, have been up there. I would expect them to drop down a fair way. But it's, yeah, the top ones really stand out. So yeah, Western Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs do kind of yo-yo if you go over the last five years. Adelaide are always there. Brisbane are always there. And I'd probably expect Sydney to be there. So I think there's a bit of value in the Sydney midfield. Not Golden, but others.
00:24:28
Speaker
Yeah. So like a, you, you expect a Taylor Adams to slot in pretty well there. I know he's a forward, but I'm, I can, I kind of go back and forth with him in terms of how I'm looking at it. You know, he's, he's a great option for us at the moment because the forward line is so dire, but I think in, in a normal year, I'm not sure we'd be touching it. Yeah. I 100% agree. I probably just look at Chad Warner. Like I love Chad Warner and he's an absolute superstar. So, um, probably guys like him.
00:24:56
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you've got Luke Parker as well, who's aging now as well. But, you know, if he only went 90 in that system last year and he was the guy, other than obviously, Goulden on the outside, you know, it might be pretty difficult for a Taylor Adams to go at 90. Would you agree there? Maybe. Maybe. They might just run really heavy. They've brought in
00:25:19
Speaker
Brody Grunty, like I said, and he picks up a lot of possessions for a rock. Like they had lump of wood, Tom Hickey, who sort of stood there and did nothing. He won't hit outs and all that, but he didn't do much around the ground. So the Rockman's going to get more ball now.
00:25:33
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. We'll get to, we'll get to the rucks in a bit. So on that, then what a, what midfielders are you looking at in your classic side at the moment? Yeah, I'm probably, yeah, I'm probably actually going away from what I've just spoken about. Like I'm looking at those teams with low disposals who, um, and the guy who say the alpha dog who can win the ball on the outside. So I think Luke LDU is an absolute smash pick. I know everyone disagrees. That's fine. Um,
00:26:01
Speaker
I've got Andy Brayshore as my number one. Again, Fremantle struggle with moving the ball. Uh, and he's someone who just runs around, does whatever the hell he wants. If Sorong becomes the tag target, that's just absolute gravy. Uh, through the midfield again, probably guys who I sort of spoke about as being those mids who move into defense. There's just so much value. Obviously I've got George Wardler who I love this year. Um, got Ollie Wines at the minute, just cause he seems to present so much value as well.
00:26:29
Speaker
of the guys you know, and then there's probably, I mean, it's freaking the first week of February, man. Yeah. It's content, right? We got to talk about something. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't want to dissect my team too much. Oh, yeah. Don't want to give away the Hilux winning team, right? Yeah, that's it. No, no, I just don't want to be embarrassed. I don't want to hate mail. The stato just like letter bombing my house.
00:26:53
Speaker
Fair enough. Uh, well, Ollie Wines is interesting because Port Adelaide completely changed up the way they played last year.
Team Playstyle Changes
00:27:00
Speaker
They went from being, I think top two in fantasy scoring and they were the dead last. Do you have their stoppage numbers on hand? Because it seemed from the eye that they turned away from playing a stoppage brand and being more of that, uh, you know, fast ball movement type team. Yeah. Yeah, they did. They, yeah, a hundred percent, right? They were, um,
00:27:21
Speaker
I think sixth lowest. So that would, and at the end of the year, it was like fourth lowest or something like that. So yeah, a hundred percent and they moved the ball really fast. Like they're, they were the top team for meters per disposal. So a hundred percent, right? So then if you're hot on an Ollie Wines presenting value in terms of him moving back into the midfield, that surely can't bode well for a Zach Budders Connor Rosie.
00:27:47
Speaker
real breakout over 110 being that type of team and having such low stats. You'd think maybe one of them might have potential to do it, but surely both can't go above 110 and we expect Ollie Wines to get back in. You expect Jason or Francis to develop further and there's a lot of moving parts there. Yeah, I don't. I'm probably on the, I like both the players. They're both really good players. I think one of them could get there. I don't expect them both to. The one thing Port
00:28:16
Speaker
can do better and they've recruited to try do it is stop, stop goals, win more and get a high rebound rate from when the other team gets in 50. Those transition players, Rosie and Butters, they could both benefit from that. I just don't see them going to that 110 level. Yeah, it's like they're both fantastic players and they both took that midfield role and made it their own, but surely you'd benefit more as a team to have them in there.
00:28:42
Speaker
but having someone like an Ollie Wines doing more of the grunt work and then they can be more creative forward of center, kind of like what Dusty does in terms of being more creative around goal. And if that's the case, then they're not going to be players that are, you know, 80% in the midfield and getting all these cheap stats because that's not the way Port Adelaide play. Yeah, I 100% agree. And look, I don't want to say they can't get there. They can, but I just don't, I don't see it happening. And they got like Dan Houston, so good out of the fence, man. They can really set some big attacking options up.
00:29:12
Speaker
Yeah, I actually don't mind Dan Houston. He's burnt me a bit in the past and he tends to have these floor games that kill coaches, but it hasn't happened yet. But you always kind of think that he might be able to have a year where he breaks out and becomes a real bonafide premium because he is very good off that halfback. Yeah, for sure, man, for sure. So if we're looking at Port Adelaide as being that low
00:29:34
Speaker
Um, that low stoppage team run and gun you've got on the other end, you've got St. Kilda. So, you know, us as fantasy coaches, we like to look at what players have done in the past. We look at someone like a Jack Steele who's gone to the ad two years at one 10 and then in the middle there, he had a year of one 20. If St. Kilda are playing this more, uh, low stoppage game and they've got these class users on the outside in terms of Sinclair and, uh, Wangany Miller and now Henry's come in. Do you, are you someone that's a little colder on a Jack Steele resurgence?
00:30:05
Speaker
I am personally, I can understand why people like him and I think he can get there, but it's probably not for me. I like the player, he's a good player. We'll see when the whips are cracking round one, whether I get him in or not, but at the moment I don't have him. And he's lower on my board than others. Yeah, he's the player that we would have started in the past, but with all this new data coming out,
00:30:31
Speaker
Like I said, this market share stuff, this new stats and information that we have, it's kind of highlighting why we shouldn't pick these type of players. And our heart says that we should because they've done it before, but so much is changing. So Jack Steele is an interesting one. He sits in my team at the moment, but it wouldn't surprise me if he only really averages low hundreds. And he isn't the dominant player that we've seen in the past just because of the way the St Kilda footy club play now.
00:30:56
Speaker
Well, and I also think you got to take things into perspective. Like I was talking with Stado before about say Took Miller and that year, Jack Steele went 120, Took Miller went the same. Well, Took Miller's come back to the pack is that team's really improved around him. Like, you know, that midfield he was playing in when he went 120, that was Hugh Greenwood and Fear Rini were the second highest like CVA players. Like, come on.
00:31:21
Speaker
Like, like, Dos isn't here, I can say that. So I kind of think, like, with St Kilda, like, you've got these really quality players on the outside, whereas before it was like, Zach Jones and like, Seb Ross, like, they're okay, but they're, you know, they're a bit more jaggy, I think, than the quality they've got now.
00:31:41
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose you're going to really rely on his inside tackle game and getting the ball on the inside because when he was that dominant player, he was doing both. He was getting it on the inside, but then he was also getting out for the cheap little marks in the back line as well, which that's probably not, they probably don't want him doing that anymore. Yeah. I 100% agree. And I think that's where you really get to the top is like these big outside numbers. Like there's only so many contests. So if you're going to build big scores, it's going to be on the outside as a general rule. Yeah.
00:32:11
Speaker
Dead, right. All right. Uh, so you're really big on LDU. Now this one's interesting because your early solo pods through say late September, early October, you were actually a little bit hotter on Jai Simpkin and it's kind of just transformed and now you're the Jai Simpkin hater. What are you, you're really big on Wardlaw, we know that, but you don't think Jai Simpkin has scope to, to be that M2 and push back into the nineties? Yeah, I mean, he's okay. All right. But again, what's his trick? What does he do well?
00:32:41
Speaker
What does Josh Simpkin do well? Well, he's the captain, so I hope he leads well, but... Yeah, but Nick Maxwell was the captain of a Premiership team. True, true. Tom Jonas. Wasn't Tom Jonas the captain playing in the twos? True, true. So what is he... I don't know what he does well. He's fine, right? And he maybe presents a bit of value, but I don't know what he does well. I've been on Simpkin before and he's fine and he could be value. And he probably is value at what his average is.
00:33:12
Speaker
But I'm not convinced. I'll put it that way. Yeah. Look, to be honest, some of the best fantasy players we've had over the journey don't really have a trick. They, uh, you know, they can hopefully win the ball and they butcher it and they tackle and they're not, you know, they're not, uh, a target for the opposition. Think you're, you're Rocky's fear. Any, when he's at his, at his best, uh, you know, even a Jack McCray was always, he was in the midfield, but he was never like the, the main guy team sort of just let him do what he wants because.
00:33:40
Speaker
he was good at racking the footy, but he wasn't really damaging with it. So, you know, maybe a Josh, him can be that sort of M2 to LDU where LDU does a lot of the flashy stuff and the hard work and he can just rack the footy. But yeah, I keep going up and down with him. I think North Melbourne still need that leadership in the midfield. They can't just go full youth because they will get pumped. But at the same time, they do probably need to move past him a little bit because he's not really going to be, you'd think in the midfield for them when they're, you know, pushing for finals in a premiership.
00:34:11
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not, I'm not a hundred percent. I'm sure what they do from a team perspective, like what the hell do they do with Taran Thomas? And I just think he ought to use the class. He's got the seasons under the belt now. And if anyone's going to be the number one scorer, like I think that's in his range of outcomes, which probably surprises people, but I think he's the sort of player where he could be the dominant CBA player in a team that doesn't move the ball.
00:34:38
Speaker
Uh, and he can get enough on the outside to, to sort of get to that level of scoring. I know the injuries and all that. I understand that, but yeah, well, he's shown for patches that he does have the ability to be one of the best players in the comp. It's just going to be whether or not he can put it together for, for a full season or a large enough amount of it for us in classic. I'm with you on LDU. I have him in my team. I know.
00:35:02
Speaker
think Selby came out the other week and said that if he was playing fantasy, he wouldn't be starting LDU because he thinks that he's better in real life than he is for fantasy. Uh, just with what he does. I mean, I think he averaged one 21 in super coaching that hot patch last year, showing that he's doing a lot of the inside work and using the ball really well, but not
00:35:20
Speaker
necessarily getting out for the cheap stuff but yeah I'm with you there as I think as the season goes on with North they're going to be on the back of a few you know tough games and that might allow teams for him to to get a little bit of cheap ball on the outside as well as well as doing what he does with the in the inside. Yeah he just fits the profile we're looking for that's all. Yeah.
00:35:40
Speaker
Do you, so we'll look at the Adelaide midfield. Do you think there's value in a Matt Crouch price at 80 or do you think that it's still just lead and Dawson and, and he's just a bit of a role player? Oh, there's probably value. Can you, can you stomach it though? This dude was dropped like repeatedly. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I think there is. I like Matt Crouch over the years. So.
00:36:04
Speaker
Yeah, I like Matt Crouch as well. And I just think from a footy point of view, Jordan Dawson is so good. Like he is unbelievable everywhere, but.
00:36:13
Speaker
What do you want from Jordan Dawson? You want him getting the ball, you know, on the, on the back flank or through the middle and then delivering it inside 50 with his lethal left foot. He doesn't need to be that accumulator doing a lot of the hard work on the inside, getting it out to the outside. You want lead and crouch doing that and getting it out to him. So if crouch has a role in there, I actually think he can score quite
Ruck Strategies Debate
00:36:33
Speaker
well. And it showed in those last six games, it was Dawson that dropped a little bit. Um, because I think that's probably what they want from a footy point of view.
00:36:41
Speaker
Yeah, probably. If you wanted to pivot off wines, he's probably a great pick.
00:36:48
Speaker
Yep. Interesting. All right. So let's just finish off with the rucks. So how are you seeing the rucks this year? It seems like we've got maybe three value options that are potentially smash plays. And I don't think we want to also forget about our team English and Royal Marshall after the season they had last year, but it is interesting. I was listening to you and Stado in your pod last week with the face offs and your thoughts around Royal Marshall were quite interesting. And I'm, I'm, I'm big on Marshall as well, but I'm just not sure I can start him at 117.
00:37:17
Speaker
Well, I think the problem in classic is there's too much value elsewhere, right? You can't not have Grundy, really. Yeah, so you're Grundy over Gorn? Yeah, yeah. Oh, I've actually got him ranked Gorn and Grundy, so I don't know. I don't know what the prices are, man. I would have thought Gorn was way dearer than Grundy.
00:37:41
Speaker
Yeah, so he is, but it's not actually massive. So Gorn comes in priced at 92 and then Grundy comes in priced at 75. So absolutely, you would think that Grundy outperforms his starting price more than what Gorn would. But I think Gorn's probably going to be closer to the top line, guys, and someone you potentially might not even need to trade out for the year if everything goes well. Whereas I think Grundy is going to need to be traded at some point. I don't think he's going to be close enough. Yeah, maybe that's a fair point.
00:38:09
Speaker
I have to revisit that, but yeah, I've got Grunty at the minute, but I think they're both probably presenting a lot of value for you. Yeah. So I found it interesting when you were.
00:38:18
Speaker
when you're battling Stado and he was saying that Tim English was the one that potentially has upside. And you were trying to say that, well, actually, Roland Marshall is the one that has upside because he did what he did in such a low stoppage team. And if that actually manages to flip around and he gets more access to points at the stoppage, then he's going to benefit a lot more than a Tim English where the Bulldogs are essentially, they can't really have many more stoppages. They're already at the top of the tree.
00:38:41
Speaker
Yeah, and all I've heard from the preseason is that they're trying to work the ball a bit slower around the ground, the Bulldogs. So they were probably a rare team that had a lot of stoppages and didn't have high meters per disposal. But yeah, I mean, Royal Marshal could be the top scorer in the game easily. Have you got him as your number one pick in draft or you're not willing to go there? You're not willing to put your balls on the line? Yeah, typically don't draft rocks at number one.
00:39:11
Speaker
I'll play a straight bat with that. So you're drafting Breyshaw at one then? I would, yes. Not worried. I think I would. I don't know. It's a good question, actually, because I did the trader's draft kit the other night and I picked two. So I had all these options on the table. Like Breyshaw didn't go to like pick nine or 10 or something. And I went Nick Dacos at two. But I know those boys all love rucks. So I was like, oh, fuck. That ruck run come pretty early.
00:39:37
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, they love rocks and they draft back up rocks and all that sort of stuff. I'm just like, ah, I'll just pick up whoever I got late. It was Riley O'Brien who I don't even like, but whatever. Yeah, good old. He's a body. You think Philthorpe's going to come in and take his spot anyway, right? Why'd you do that? Yeah, that's right. Well, I just draft Philthorpe and perfect. True. Hand cuff. Hand cuff. True. Last player, what do you think about a Tristan Cherry? Do you think he's going to fit well into that north system to be value enough?
00:40:06
Speaker
Well, it's interesting, right? It's interesting. They were high stoppage-ish. They were mid to high last year. And I would suspect that that goes trends the other way in a big way. Or they certainly were at the end. I think maybe, oh, maybe they trended down from the year before. So he might, he's probably value right. Oh, he's definitely, definitely value on his 63 average or 63 price tag. Yeah, I don't think you're keeping him though. No, you're definitely not keeping him. You'd really want him.
00:40:36
Speaker
especially with the ruck options that we have this year, you'd want him pushing 90 to be a pretty good pick. And I'm just, I'm just not sure you look at a Jared Wits who isn't the best ruckman going around, but still a pretty solid soldier and has lots of access to points through hit outs and here on the average 91. So it's actually not that easy to average 90 as a ruckman.
00:40:54
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, and like Wits is a guy I'm completely off this year. And I say that completely off, he's still like R10 or something, but yeah. I mean, maybe you can start Grundy and Gorn, that'd be interesting. It's just a buy, right? It's just a buy.
00:41:09
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. For me, it'll be, at the moment I have Grundy Gorn and I'm pretty keen to start him, but I'm not sure I can do that. If there's no playing R3, that'll just be an absolute killer. So if we get someone at R3 who could come on during those rounds and actually put up some decent scores, then I'm all for it. But yeah, without that playing R3, it makes it challenging.
00:41:31
Speaker
As I'm sure, as I'm sure you're all over being the classic connoisseur that you are. Oh, I'm just thinking Toby Conway. Just love him. Love those, love those rooks, mate. My favorite.
Mid-Priced Player Strategies
00:41:44
Speaker
Yeah. So lastly, let's just touch on the forwards. I think this is probably where you're going to come in, come into your own this year. Like you said, you don't like drafting those, those key forwards that just are going to do what they do. So you'll be hunting for value. So who are some of these mid price forwards that you're, you know, you're going to be looking at for the classic
00:42:00
Speaker
Okay. I'll give you my forward line at the minute because it's probably embarrassing. All right. So I've got Harley Reid, like everyone will have. I've got Caleb Windsor from Melbourne. Fuck that's loose. He'll play on the wing. Why? He's like a top 10 pick and there's a role for him. He'll play on the wing over Hunter, Langdon and Billings. Yeah.
00:42:24
Speaker
These guys are all old and terrible. Caleb Daniel, believe it or not, is in my team at the minute. Caleb Daniel over Jack McRae. You think the role is going to be better there? Uh, I think Jack McRae will be in my team at the end of the, end of the pre-season. Yeah, you're still pretty big on Jack McRae. You don't understand why he's, why he's playing the role that he's playing. Well, I think only two things can happen and they're both good for him. Number one, Bulldogs move away from being such a high stoppage team. So there's more outside ball. Good for Jack McRae versus Bont and Libba.
00:42:54
Speaker
Or he gets back in the midfield. Perfect. I can't seem to go unless I don't understand it. Yeah. He's pretty highly, I know. Yeah, he is. There's definitely safety in numbers this year, but you know, the, as you like to say, the ownership numbers at this time of the year don't really mean much. Nick Dacos is 50, 58% owned, I think. And I'm not sure I've seen one, one team with him actually in it at the moment. So a lot of, a lot of casual coaches that aren't on Twitter, just logging in and chucking him in there.
00:43:23
Speaker
A lot of group think. Yeah, I like Daniel. All that happens is he goes out there, plays, scores well. He's had Bailey Smith, who does what he does well. He's out for the year. You've got Adam Treloar, who can ping a hand bone at any second. Jack McCrae's nicked up, as we know. Not that we're concerned, but I don't know, man. Not much has gone away from him.
00:43:44
Speaker
Yeah, true. And to be honest that this, I think for the first half of last year was actually going at about 97 and he was someone that we're actually looking to, to bring in. So maybe we need to have a bit of a look at what was the reason that he dropped off so significantly in the back half of the year, because he, his average over the last, you know, six to eight games wasn't fantastic. But yeah, I've always liked Caleb Daniel, even though, even though I think he, he scored a 20 for me on field in 2021 when I came second. So if you got, if you got more than 20, that game I would have won, but thanks Caleb.
00:44:14
Speaker
Yeah, Hayden, Hayden Caleb. So I've got Zach Fisher, as you mentioned, Jack Graham, Matt Fife, Finlay McCray, and Jack Billings. Aaron Cadman's on the bench. So you're bigger on a Jack Graham than you would be over a Liam Baker. Liam Baker's been pretty, a bit of a buzzword this, this preseason in terms of more midfield time.
00:44:39
Speaker
It's interesting. We'll see. I mean, Graham's traditionally been the one who gets a spurt in there, not that he's always scored very well, but he is super low. Um, he might be a terrible pick. I don't know. He might be the guy who becomes Jack McRae. I'm actually fascinated by Richmond this year in terms of a new coach, but there's going to have to be points, points somewhere. Uh, Tim Toronto is going to be good. Hopper will be what Hopper is when he's actually playing. Um, but.
00:45:08
Speaker
Yeah, there's got to be points somewhere. So I'm watching Richmond quite closely and to see how they play and if they're going to change up their game style. What about a James Jordan for Sydney?
00:45:19
Speaker
Uh, he's probably, yeah, I mean, everyone talks about him. So I guess he should be in there at some point. Like I said, man, I'm not doing this stupid, not doing it now. I'm not onto V10 of my team in the first week of February. Come on, mate. You're not a, you're not a classic coach. If you haven't had V10 by the same day that the game opens up on December 16. I don't know about James Jordan, man. Like there's so much quality in that midfield already. Like, yeah. What's he going to do really?
00:45:49
Speaker
Yeah. He's a smash wing pick. It's like, they've got golden. Yeah. Chad, Chad Warner can win the ball on the outside. I mean, he's probably value, but I don't know. They're the problem with haven't like, and I don't know classic and you can tell me if I'm right or wrong. If you have too many value guys, it just seems like some of them are going to fail. Some of them will succeed. Then you're going to have other problems elsewhere and you just get caught in a circle of never fixing up the problems you originally set out to fix.
00:46:17
Speaker
Yeah, look, traditionally, I've been very big on not actually starting too many mid prices and then trading into them once they pop, just purely for that reason. If you start too many traditionally, not all of them pay off and then you can't really fix them and you get caught in no man's land. But this year is a little bit different because of the lack of forwards. You just were forced into taking a little bit more of a punt.
00:46:38
Speaker
But really, these mid prices, we do need them to pop ceiling games early to kickstart that cash. If James Jordan, for example, priced at 50, say he averages 70, 75 for the year and he's gone 20 above his starting pricing. In theory, that seems like a good pick. But if he averages a flat 70,
00:46:55
Speaker
His cash doesn't really skyrocket too much and he kind of just ticks along and he's not someone you look to trade off because he's not burning you, but he's also not getting you to where you need to go either. So that's the danger with these mid prices. You really need him to pop early, which is why someone like a Zach Williams is appealing. Yes, he's coming off an ACL, but we know what his ceiling is. And if he comes back and, you know, he has a 120 game anywhere to start the season, he's going to get a massive rise and that's when it, that's when it starts.
GWS Schedule Advantages
00:47:23
Speaker
Yeah.
00:47:24
Speaker
I'll just look at some of these, the guys who I really like to sort of rise from that mid price into the top tier, or at least be very close, they've all got the buy. And even like with GWS's schedule at the start of this year, man, if they didn't have the, the buy, my whole team would be GWS. Wow. Which plays? Oh, like Jesse Hogan, Whitfield, absolutely. Tom Green, probably Jelly. We do love Jesse Hogan.
00:47:52
Speaker
Yeah, 100% is the best.
00:47:55
Speaker
You could start Jesse Hogan and then get the two tons from round one and two when they play north and west coast. Yeah, north and west coast, and then jump off. You'd be someone that would play like that. Probably. That's right. Probably finish like 20,000 every year. Oh, jeez. Nah, Stevie, thanks for coming on, mate. I really appreciate it. I know it's pretty late back there in Melbourne. Just give the listeners, actually, no, I'm not even going to get you to give you details because you hate new listeners. So we'll just leave it at that.
00:48:23
Speaker
Yeah, thanks, mate. I'm not trying to sell a draft kit or anything. I'm not in Melbourne. That's the offensive, that's the offensive thing. Jesus. Oh, sorry. Victoria. Sorry. Victoria. Sorry. No, you are, you are trying to sell a draft kit. Where can they find you? The draft kit is unbelievable, by the way. Uh, if it's, when's this coming out? I should ask first. If this is out tomorrow, it cooks. Nah, not tomorrow. Sometime in the next week or so.
00:48:49
Speaker
Okay, yeah, go to thedraftdoctor.com.au. It'll be there somewhere. It better be out, man. Geez, we've had so much. This has been the worst pre-season. Awesome, mate. Thanks very much. And I look forward to maybe having you on our regular show again before we kick off because, yeah, we love and chat to you. Thanks for having me, mate. I love talking classics. Always the best. All right, mate.