Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
Port Adelaide FC AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.7k Plays9 months ago
The Pear was elite in the regular season but a gross fantasy scoring team — DEAD LAST for AFL Fantasy scoring, even below West Coast and North!
Will this game plan stick around for another year under Ken, or will we see some value options pop up at Port Adelaide FC in 2024?
Dos, Lewy, Holmesy, and Harmey talk about all the Port Adelaide AFL Fantasy options worth looking at, including Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis, Jordan Sweet, Ollie Wines, and much more!
Want to sponsor us? Hit us up at [email protected]!
Find ALL our social links here: https://linktr.ee/podpodafl
Follow us on X, formerly Twitter:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Dos: @HKdos
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Harmey: @jonharmey
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to Port Adelaide AFL Fantasy Podcast
00:00:16
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. Book an old things AFL fantasy and we are continuing our team previews this time doing the Port Adelaide Tower.
2023 Season Review and 2024 Prospects
00:00:32
Speaker
There it is! I am joined on this episode by a dual cottet two time cottet finishes.
00:00:48
Speaker
John Hammeh and Holmsey, we've also got mad Port Supporter, Louis on deck as well. I'll get to you in a second, Louis. But going through some of the Port Adelaide team numbers from 2023 before we get stuck in, they finished third on the ladder, but dead last for fantasy points. Yes, that's right. Below West Coast and North Melbourne.
00:01:16
Speaker
Last for disposals, but first for meters gained per disposal, something we've talked about a little bit this pre-season. And despite that tendency to go along, they still had the third best kicking efficiency in the league as well. Number one for pressure act differential. Number one for tackles inside 50 differential. Last for overall hit outs due to their low stoppage game, but also a lack of a clear number one ruck.
00:01:42
Speaker
Also third last fall, contested possession differential there. Louis, I know you're a huge Ken Hinkley fan. Can he gather the troops for a big rise again in 2024 and can they go all the way?
00:01:54
Speaker
I'm not sure, mate. I'm not as convinced as what other some fans are, but they're certainly in the window. They've got the talent there. They've bolstered up the defensive stocks, which is what many were saying were their weakness. So there's every chance that they could, mate.
Trade Insights and Draft Strategies
00:02:15
Speaker
Good luck, Louie, for the season, but we'll look at those trade period. As you said, they did bring in a few people to help out the cores and the trade-ins. Asava Radagalia coming across, Brandon, Zerk, Thatcher, Ivan Soldo, and Jordan Sweet. I mean, not a heap on our fantasy radar out of those names, but there are.
00:02:35
Speaker
There is one name there that's quite tempting, I'm sure that we'll talk about soon. The outs, Xavier Dursmer, off to your bombers, Hami, Aratio Fantasia, we spoke about him recently on the Blues Pod, Tom Jonas, retiring, Scott Lyssette, Premiership West Coast player retiring there, and Riley Bonner, they listed there as well.
00:02:56
Speaker
But the buy-around, we've substituted the statesman off for these next three podcasts. We've got Homsey, our new buy-around expert, to discuss the buy-around for Port Adelaide. They do not play opening rounds, so they're pretty tempting from a premium perspective. But talk us through Port Adelaide. They've got the round 13 buy.
00:03:17
Speaker
Yeah, don't mind if I do, Dossie Boy. Yeah, that round 13 buy is really, really good. So only two teams on that buy being Port Adelaide and Freo, which means that if you're picking premiums in that buy round, they're only going to miss when those two teams are on the buy, which means you have them available in rounds 12, 14 and 15 when there's more teams on the buy and we're struggling. So from that point of view, if you find players that you like from Port in terms of keepers that you want for the season, then they have a very valuable buy around and they're going to help you a lot.
Player Analysis: Zack Butters and Jordan Sweet
00:03:47
Speaker
Let's look at the popular picks for Port Adelaide, Zack Butters. And by the way, popular picks, 10 plus percent ownership is what we're going with here. Zack Butters, 27% owned. Harmony, $898,000. He was a forward last year, only a midfielder this year, but coaches are still keen to start him here.
00:04:07
Speaker
Oh yeah, look, I'm not surprised. He had such a good back end of the season. He started off a bit slow, so people can probably see some, you know, some upside in his current price. So he's priced at 100. Yeah, and I'm interested. I mean, a nice buy. He's got a good ceiling on his day. So I think there's a lot of things pointing towards him as an early selection.
00:04:30
Speaker
Now, I remember Louie being the Port Nuffy that you are. You've been to plenty of pre-season trainings for the pair out there. I want to get your thoughts because if memory serves, I'm trying to find the exact tweet. You did some notes from one of the Intra Club trials recently. Here we go.
00:04:50
Speaker
A few interesting things at Port Match Sim this morning. One of the big pointers I took off there, butters freakish invest now. Walk us through there. That's pretty much based on the eye test and it is only preseason training and we hopefully will see that come some of the realest stuff in the preseason games and then again in season.
00:05:12
Speaker
You know when you can just tell that there's a guy who's just classier than the rest and at times, mate, he was just running rings around some of those port boys and still thinking about one of those clearances where he pretty much hit the ball at full pace straight out of the midfield.
00:05:30
Speaker
and kicked a goal from about 45 metres out, and I just thought to myself, gee whiz, this guy's about to go bang. He sort of broke out a little bit last year, didn't he? 27 votes in the brown low, won the AFL Coaches Association Award, pretty much played every single game. In fact, I think he did, so the confidence should be high.
00:05:52
Speaker
And yeah, there is a little bit of built-in value considering that he didn't go into that midfield into round four. So only average the 62% CBAs and just digging into the numbers a little bit. He actually averaged 107 when he went above 60%. So if he can go at 107 plus, priced at I think 99.5, 100, then you've got a keeper on your hands there. And with West Coast round one, you might even have a captain option early.
00:06:23
Speaker
Yeah, I do love their early schedule. Maybe we can talk about that as well when we talk about another one of their premiums coming up. But Jordan's sweet. Holmes, he has been a big talking point this pre-season. Started by yours truly, Big Dossie. I reckon his ownership's gone up about 8% since our original Point of Difference podcast that we did, where I said, you know what, coach is looking here. He's now 11% owned.
00:06:48
Speaker
And another note from that training, I might add that, uh, Louie went to, it says, John's sweet number one ruck has been most of pre-season homesy.
00:06:57
Speaker
Yeah, look, Dossie, if that doesn't tell you that you're not in the most 40 influential AFL fantasy content creators, I don't know what does because he wasn't even on anyone's radar and you've come on and we know what an astute coach you are. So thanks for allowing us to pick him. Look, the appeal of a Jordan sweet without stating the obvious is if he's number one ruck priced in the mid to low 40s, then there's extreme value there. But the main reason I'm looking at it is
00:07:22
Speaker
I'm still looking at starting a Grundy Gorn combo in R1 and R2 and I really need someone to play when they're on their buy. So I'll definitely look at it in terms of what other R3 options we have. But at the moment, it sounds like he's training pretty well and he's trying to attack that number one rock spot and he's a decent option for us.
00:07:41
Speaker
The only flag I'd say is just in the last couple of weeks, Soldo has sort of returned to that number one ruck spot. He
Fantasy Picks: Connor Rosie and Dan Houston
00:07:49
Speaker
did have finger surgery so was training a lot in the pink hat. So I think it was about two weeks ago where there was a bit of a tweet I think from Matt Turner on X just saying that it looks like Soldo has returned to that number one ruck spot which is
00:08:05
Speaker
a massive red flag
00:08:22
Speaker
Todd Marshall, Charlie Dixon, Ollie Lord, Mitch Georgiadis, Jeremy Finlayson and of course Yvonne Soldo. So straight away there you've got eight or nine blokes who are about 195 centimeters and in a game that's definitely transitioning to being a little bit faster. I just can't see if he doesn't get the number one rock roll him playing in tandem with another guy. I think it'll be more your Finlayson or your Dixon who plays that backup
00:08:50
Speaker
All right, that's an interesting one and that's one to monitor in the preseason for sure. Let's look at the big dogs, the top three averaging players from last year, another player.
00:09:01
Speaker
Hot on the radar, a fantasy coach is not in that 10% plus ownership bracket yet, but he is nearly 7% owned at the moment. Connor Rosie, the new skipper, harmi of the Port Adelaide Football Club. 106 average last year. He comes in at $956,000. Fantastic year for Rosie. Can he go again in 2024?
00:09:25
Speaker
Oh, well, why not? He's just a great player, isn't he? You sort of watch him play, and he does everything you want. He's a very complete player. He can put your pressure axe at times. He can find space. He can, you know, get him, get him out, grab some marks as well. So at 24 years old,
00:09:44
Speaker
You know, people could probably argue that he's got upside all Australian captain, as you say, I think he's in for a good year. Not really sure how he has handled the tag previously, but I don't think it's been a massive issue for him. So if you're keen on Rosie, I won't talk you out of it.
00:10:04
Speaker
Do you think the tag is maybe trending more towards Zach Butters now? I mean, he obviously won the AFL Coaches Association Award. So the coaches are identifying Zach Butters as someone who's really damaging. And as I already mentioned, 27 votes in the brown low. It definitely highlights you to opposition coaches. Is it now swung the other way towards Butters and Rosie can get a little bit more off the leash?
00:10:30
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. Like, but it's pretty quick, isn't he? Like, he's pretty quick and he's pretty hard at it. I'm not sure if you just sat a tag and next to him he's going to do too much, but I'm not sure, Lou. Other boys? I do think, I do think the positive with Rosie is his versatility though. So if he does get that guy hanging off of him, he's more than capable lead up forward as well. So he may be able to avoid it that way if it does come to him.
00:10:56
Speaker
Well, I think the big thing that interests me at Port Adelaide in general is the eight of 12 games played at home before they're round 13 by as well. Just a lot of home games. They've obviously got gather round as well, but especially with that early matchup against West Coast in round one, Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, Collingwood, Saints, like just the schedule, I think, especially for those midfielders is looking pretty tasty at the moment.
00:11:23
Speaker
The second highest averaging scorer was Zach Butters, we have spoken about him, but number three on the list, Holmsey. Dan Houston averaged 93 last year, 837,000 bucks. Can never quite get into that, you know, top, top big dog level, but he's still, you know, a top six defender candidate.
00:11:43
Speaker
Yeah, he has a ceiling like no other. On his day, he can go 140 plus. But on his opposite day, he can drop you a 40 or a 50. So that's why he's kind of never really put it all together and been above 100 and been a real premium for us. But he's so good off that half back line and up on a wing. He's their main ball user. It's average 93 in that side when they were the lowest scoring fantasy side. It's a fair effort. And naturally, you would think if Port Adelaide do increase their output and he maintains that same kind of
00:12:12
Speaker
buzzword market share that there might be a little bit of upside there for him. He's not necessarily someone I'm looking to start, but it wouldn't surprise me if one year is a bonafide top six defender.
Rookies and Emerging Talent
00:12:23
Speaker
Talking about some rookie options, and I think we will go to Louis for this one just because there's probably only a couple we're looking at, and I know Josh Sin's name at $257,000 has come up already. I think in your research that you've been looking at, tell us what position he's playing in preseason.
00:12:41
Speaker
Well it was flagged pretty early on in the preseason that he'd be given a crack at half back which is interesting and probably a little bit unfortunate that he is just the mid only. I do sort of question how much of the ball he can find at AFL level. I'm someone who goes to the Magpies games and at times he does float in and out of the game.
00:13:03
Speaker
And I also have taken note that his ball use isn't flash. He's probably not got the best ball drop. So in that half back roll, I can either see him being the sub or somebody who could be dropped to go back to the twos just to work on a little bit of his craft because
00:13:21
Speaker
know, Port Adelaide should be competing. So you would think that it's going to be a pretty hard side to crack into and to maintain your spot. And we saw that with Dylan Williams, who was able to use the ball so well and even translate to some fantasy scoring. But he found himself out of that side by the end of the year as well. What about Tom Clury? Just over $300,000. I know that he was flagged for some more wing time and coaches got a little bit excited, Lou.
00:13:48
Speaker
They did, and he's been moved back since. Tom Clury was just like those guys that I mentioned before, they've got a very stacked tall defensive line. I think they were just looking for a spot for Tom Clury to sort of sharpen up his axe. He was playing wing, but he was on the twos that whole time as well. At 305 K, if he did have the wing time and he got a spot in the ones, you might have a look at it.
00:14:16
Speaker
Jeez, you'd hate to pick Tom Clury, it'd go wrong. And then 2020 Vision, you're going, why the hell did I pick Tom Clury in my fantasy side?
00:14:25
Speaker
Let's look at some points of difference for the pair here. And, Holmsey, I want your thoughts on Olly Wines coming in at $700 and $1,000. Seems pretty cheap for a former Brown low medalist there, but also maybe just give us some context for the next couple of players we're going to be talking about. They are, like, they were the lowest fantasy scoring team in the league, as we said. How can we get some more points out of these players and also your interest in Olly Wines?
00:14:53
Speaker
Yeah, look, I definitely think he's under priced, but I think all of those stats that you rattled off to start the pod, painted a perfect picture of wines. They decided to not possess the ball and just get it moving forward as fast as they can. Um, highlighted with that high meters per disposal. And that's not Ollie wine's game. So he had an, he had an injury interrupted preseason last year where he didn't have a preseason at all. So he was, he was unfit last year. It wasn't the only wines that we know, but
00:15:19
Speaker
If you're predicting Rosie to break out again and Butters to be good again, then you can't also be predicting Wines to go above 95 with the way that Port Adelaide are playing. So I think he'll
Breakout Players: Jason Horn Francis and Ivan Soldo
00:15:30
Speaker
improve. I think he'll still get some midfield time, but I've cooled on his prospects. As mid-only, you'd really need him to go 95 plus, and I can't really see that in that system. Quickly throw to Lou, because I know you've been big on him this pre-season, just in case. Are you still hot on Ollie Wines?
00:15:46
Speaker
I'm hot on him and certainly as a fan, but I just do. I'm a little bit like Holmes. I just question where that average sort of lies. I think he's a player that can play some really solid effective football and help the side by going at that 90 average. He can do a little bit of the grunt work and let
00:16:04
Speaker
players like Zach Butters, Jason Horn-Francis and Connor Rosie, as we spoke about before, shine and use their weapons a little bit more. And even in his Brownlow year, he was up at about 75% CBAs, which is something that Connor Rosie and Zach Butters are still yet to touch. So, you know, we're talking about upside for them. Yeah, maybe there's some there, but Ollie Wines pretty much needs the lion's share if we're expecting him to get back up to that 105.
00:16:32
Speaker
I'm not sure 95 is enough and for that reason I probably would steer clear but if you were keen and I wouldn't really talk you out of it either. Hami, what about a third year breakout for Jason Horn Francis? Only averaged 68 fantasy points last year in that low scoring system but $614,000 we do see that third year breakout pop sometimes.
00:16:59
Speaker
Yeah and I reckon that he's priced below what he's going to go for the year. I reckon he'll be more than 68. He's
00:17:08
Speaker
He's not the number one fantasy scorer, I don't think. That's sort of not really his go. He's a little bit more of an impact player. He's not a high accumulator of disposals from what I can see, mate. But look, could he be 100? Don't reckon. Could he be 90? Possibly. I think he's going to be their preferred midfielder ahead of Ollie Wines, and that's probably why I'm probably steering clear of Wines at this point in time.
00:17:33
Speaker
I think he's the third in there with Roseanne Butters and will probably be a good three for the next five years to come. So, has he got 20 points upside? Possibly, but I'll probably be inclined to go a little bit cheaper if I was looking for a midfielder or more and look at somebody who's potentially a keeper.
00:17:55
Speaker
Yeah, my interest has waned a little bit, maybe just due to those stats that we've been talking about in terms of the way they want to play their footy, but I've still got a keen eye on JHF, just in case it is that breakout year coming. Ivan Soldo I've got here, just in case he is the number one man, Holmes. Is there any value in him at $667,000, you know, looking away from a sweet, if he is the number one guy at Port?
00:18:22
Speaker
Yeah, look, he's value because he's never had that number one rock roll before for a substantial period of time. Even last year when we saw him have it for that month, I think he went close to 90 in Nank's absence. So there's definitely value, but I'm not sure you can touch it priced at 70 or 75, 77 when you've got Grundy around that price point, when you've got Cherry a little bit cheaper and then you've got Gorn just above.
00:18:48
Speaker
I'm not sure you touch it, especially in that system, a low stoppage system means that there's going to be less access to points around the contest. He sort of feels fully priced at that and you'd be banking on the breakout. And when you look at some of the top ruckmen that we've had over the last couple of years, and I'll just rattle off a few, Grundy, English, Gorn, Darcy and Marshall, they're all guys that are really integral to their side and how they move the football.
Underrated Picks: Bergman and Burgoyne
00:19:12
Speaker
Whereas Port Adelaide for the last couple of years haven't
00:19:15
Speaker
really shown an interest in a ruckman in general. I think it's more of a position to fill and for that reason I think Ivan Saldor will fill up on hit outs but in terms of getting around the ground and getting to the bowl I think he's going to fall flat there so an 80 average probably feels like the top end of it but he is a bit of a hit out beast so if you're saying that yeah okay he's getting 30 to 40 hit outs a game that he's only actually generating
00:19:43
Speaker
30 to 40 points on the other end through transitional play. So for that reason, I'm pretty cold on a Varn Soldo, but yeah, the forward status, maybe I'd think again, but the price point just isn't right for me. Now, a few looser names as we like to do on the Point of Difference podcast here. Miles Berkman, I've always been a big fan, Harmey. I just wanted to throw his name out there. A 60 average seems pretty low for a bloke with defensive status, but to see a point of difference you'd be interested in.
00:20:11
Speaker
60 average, is he really? Yeah. I've had him in my team before, but, um, it looks like poor actually like him as an accountable player, if you know what I mean? Like not sort of free to win his own ball. Uh, and he certainly doesn't get a run through that mutual and he won't be going forward. So I don't know if there's much upside there, mate. I mean, it's hay one where you've got.
00:20:35
Speaker
Theoretically, BZT, Brandon Zirk Thatcher and Radagalier coming in, two big taller stocks that maybe can play a bit of lockdown. Is Miles Bergman or maybe someone else on the list that could be freed up? We'll go to Port, we'll go to the Port man again, Lou. Your thoughts, mate.
00:20:52
Speaker
Uh, yeah, no, I agree with Harmey. I think he's more of that guy who can be an accountable footballer and they can leave the, um, I suppose the quality and to a lesser extent, the quantity to somebody like a Dan Houston and a Kane Farrell.
Podcast Closing and Future Content
00:21:05
Speaker
All right. I think the last name in this was requested by the listeners at pod pod AFL on all your social channels there. Jase Burgoyne. Uh, he's got the famous name homes. He comes in at 463,000 bucks.
00:21:21
Speaker
He's underplayed, played under 10 games for the last two years. Last year was just a 36 average, I think. Is he priced on the year before, though? Yeah, he must be. Yeah, Dossie, these aren't the type of players that I like to touch in that price bracket when, you know, in a competing side, not guaranteed, best 22, potentially in one week, sub the next, out the other. It's just too much of a price to pay for that reason. I'm not looking at a Jace Burgorn.
00:21:48
Speaker
All right, I think that'll wrap it up for the Port Adelaide Podcast. Louis, I just really hope for your mate that Ken Hinckley gets yet another extension for you to keep your hopes and dreams alive. I know you're a big fan. Make sure you're following us at Pod Pod AFL on all your social channels. We're on YouTube now, so make sure you check us out on there. Give us a subscribe. I see our Spotify ratings are going up. Thank you very much for that. Brisbane's up next. We'll see you then.