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Fantasy Corner: Episode 4
26 Plays6 years ago
It's Championship Week guys! This week on The Fantasy Corner, we discuss the goods and bads about having 2 week long playoff matchups. We chat about who should be in your Championship Week lineup and who shouldn't. We love the e-mails we're getting too, a couple to help out with on this episode, so tune in for your fantasy rugby fix.
Follow us on Twitter: Jarrod- jdyke8man & Ben- admrablsnackbar
Email fantasyrugbypodcast@gmail.com with questions, feedback or just to say what's up.
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Transcript
Understanding the Points Matrix
00:00:08
Speaker
All right, to the fancy corner.
00:00:13
Speaker
So we had a fairly lengthy email that took a little bit of explanation, but that's okay. So Guy wanted an explanation on the points against, and I think it's valid to bring up here. Ben, not you. Keep it in your pants. Keep it in your pants. I was like, did I drunk email the show again?
00:00:41
Speaker
I wouldn't put it by you.
Using Stats for Player Picks
00:00:45
Speaker
It tells us he's in the finals, which is awesome. A question, if you wouldn't mind, around the points matrix. Am I reading accurately, saying the fly half, if my fly half is matched up against Waratas, average points I can expect is 11, 11 and change. At the end of the scale, Southern Wolves, I could expect about a 19. Yes, but no.
00:01:12
Speaker
It's an average, there's a reason it's an average. Because the Waratas have definitely given up more, but they've also given up less. So yes, that's kind of what you can expect. Helping you basically pick players that have high points return average against any particular team in that position. No. So I think what he interpreted was if, so for example,
00:01:41
Speaker
Sharks half backs have a low return look half packs have a low return against against the sharks That does not automatically mean you need to pick loose shorter That does not automatically mean that what it means is if you're playing this if you're half packs playing the sharks
00:01:55
Speaker
maybe reconsider unless his name's Aaron Smith or Will Guineer. Those are probably the two guys I would pine outside of that, or I wouldn't pine, excuse me, or TJ.
Stats vs. Consistent Performers
00:02:10
Speaker
That'd be the last guy I would reconsider setting, but we talked about it. It's not a universal blind decision that you make. There are guys that are absolutely match up proof that you do not sit.
00:02:22
Speaker
Not L.M.A.P. has definitely been one of them. He's smashed through every defense put in front of him just about. Right. You know, so on and so forth. It's basically like if you have Pulu as your as your halfback and you're playing somebody who or you play, you know, in the matchup is against a team that that gives up very few points to halfbacks.
00:02:39
Speaker
Find a different time to find it everyone that that's what that's all it means is you know It's it's a points expectation. It should be points expected relative to How many points your guy normally scores? so it's like if you're playing a team that gives up a high average of points and
00:02:59
Speaker
And you have a very good player, probably gonna do very well. If you have a very good player who's matched up against a team that doesn't give up many points for that, he still might do well. But just don't expect a 30 point game out of him. Expect 10 to 15. And here's the other thing to clarify a little bit.
Impact of Position Averages on Choices
00:03:19
Speaker
So the average points surrendered, so for example, multiple positions that are on the field at once, like outside back.
00:03:25
Speaker
that's a combination of those three outside backs or two or four depending on what formation or what lineup the the opponent throws out there so you know for the highlanders they're going to give up 56 ish to all the outside backs total so
00:03:44
Speaker
Averaged that across three guys. You stop you're still looking at a decent score between those three guys, but what it doesn't tell you Unfortunately is which one like what if it's it's you know, what if they give up a shit ton of points to the left wing? And that's it. That's it. Well, that doesn't really you know, this isn't right you if you're your guys playing on the right wing or at fullback, but It's just an indication of hey if this guy ends up at that left wing spot
00:04:09
Speaker
He might do well. So yeah, maybe give him a shot, right? You know, then there's definitely been some blinders that have come on nowhere to score some some big ones I think even this week. Let me look at this one that kind of caught my eye. I don't remember where it was Point being there's there's some big names that just kind of tell ya big one 36 six, you know whoo big time, you know, and that was against the Reds who Actually don't do poorly against outside backs. So that's a that's a
00:04:35
Speaker
That was kind of a shock to me. I was like, whoa, that's a number. So again, you know, you take a flyer on a guy and you never know. But point being, it just helps you pick or make a decision.
Community Interaction and Lineup Discussion
00:04:45
Speaker
Do I have this guy who is going against a team that's middling? And I have this guy going against a team that's going to pretty much stop my guy dead told.
00:04:52
Speaker
Let's go with the other guy. It's more to, if you have an option between two different guys, it's more of a guide to say, this guy might do better in his matchup than this other guy. It's all. We're not, again, it's fucking statistics. Three types of lies, lies, damn lies, and statistics. So you can make these stats say what you want. All we're doing is giving, well, we. And by we, I mean Jared. Because I don't have too much input on it.
00:05:21
Speaker
But all we're doing is telling you
00:05:25
Speaker
This is what these teams have done in the past. Now, as they always say, past behavior is not indicative of future results, whatever it is. But it just gives you a guide. That's all it is, is helping you make the decision. Don't read into it more than that, please. Nope, please don't. Yeah, so thanks for the email, Ben. We appreciate it. Thanks, Ben. Tastefully named, Ben.
00:05:53
Speaker
coming to us from New Zealand. Nice. Oh. Our old friend, Cobus, emailed us this week. Oh, yeah. Looking for a little more lab help. He lost. So we'll get into this whole two-week thing this second. We figured that one out. Unfortunately, yeah.
00:06:12
Speaker
You need a little lineup help again Basically stuck stuck on basically on the whole 11 before we were talking about outside backs right this guy was just like oh no So the lineup he had in was
00:06:29
Speaker
He had Nahalo, Samaki, Chuck Campbell, Carreras, Beal, Hayden Parker, Jimmy Booth, Karifi, Squire, Hemipo, and the Bulls Front Row. Bulls Front Row did pretty well, if I remember right. I know why you're in the finals, Cobas. Yep. It was the semifinals.
00:06:46
Speaker
Oh, yeah. Jackson Hemipo did pretty well. Squire was kind of a was a was, you know, just a wild card. He didn't do too hot. And I don't think creepy did either. Booth, he wasn't on the Sunwell's list. So it's a bet. That's a bet. Parker had had 11. So that's not terrible.
00:07:07
Speaker
Biel wasn't fantastic. Carreras was good. Jock Campbell was pretty good. Salmaki, not otherworldly, and then Nahala was pretty good. I did suggest one thing, because I thought that was basically everything. That was his lineup, and then I had the options on his bench. I didn't like Van Staden, Vellumso, who I don't think played.
00:07:29
Speaker
Tamua who I put as my stop sign and and in cosy so I suggested maybe switch out Samaki for in cosy so you're not leaning on the moon the moon dogs too much But that was about my only suggestion. So he hasn't got back to us about about his lineup. So we'll see maybe he made it maybe he didn't Also a reason neither of us made the final yes
00:07:53
Speaker
Yeah, you might be asking the wrong dopes. Sorry, man. We're still learning this as it relates to this format. But to our credit, we are fairly accomplished fantasy football players over here. The concept of fantasy is
00:08:14
Speaker
Isn't outside of us isn't outside of us. We're just learning we're getting this one getting the hang of this this particular Competition. Yeah, so hopefully hopefully that did What do you think of the two two weeks semi-final?
Semi-final Format Analysis
00:08:26
Speaker
Format so they're playing one and then you're and then the score carries over to the next week You play one week then score carries over next week. Um
00:08:35
Speaker
You think that's good? Cause I've heard people say all that, that, that definitely determines the right winners in that case. I don't think it's, I don't look, I don't think it's necessary. Okay. But you know me, I'm never going to argue against more rugby. Well, yeah. So, um, more rugby relevant. Good. Right. So I, it's interesting. That's, that's as far as like, it's, and somewhat compelling. It's, uh,
00:09:04
Speaker
I like the idea. We'll just have to see how it how it how it's going to play out. Yeah. I don't know. Right. But I like the idea. Fair enough. You know, you ever just because, you know, like the concept, we'll see what that how it is in reality. Right. So let's just go through a few start sit thoughts.
Fantasy Rugby Matchup Strategies
00:09:30
Speaker
So we have Highlanders and Mortas.
00:09:35
Speaker
I'm saying war toss might be a good play for your front rows this week as well as any outside backs that they rock Highlanders There's not a lot of good that's going that's going on my row is they did well for me anyway. Yeah this year If anything they're loose forwards and their fly halves are actually on my naughty list. Okay, that's although they are at home So put that put a grain of salt on that. So there you go. I
00:10:00
Speaker
um rebels and chiefs uh chiefs have given up a lot of fantasy points this year so you know there's a good chance that the that way you got there for the rebels is good um rebels have actually been a little bit naughty lately as well um fly half for the rebels is a good is a good fly half for the rebels and chiefs so uh dipper shinzi plays again along with quake cooper those that those are two good fly-offs you could be looking at for your
00:10:27
Speaker
pretty stunning lamps there. The outside backs for the Rebels have been pretty good most of the year, so I would roll those anyway.
00:10:39
Speaker
So Rebels have done well against the Chiefs has backs, but again, that could be one of those, I think Brad Webber is one of those guys that you don't worry about that. So there you go, assuming that he's the one playing this week and there hasn't been any funny business. How could you not? Right, assuming there's been no funny business over their bye week, I'd say Brad Webber is their guy, so go ahead and roll him in there. Jags and Sun Wolves, basically any position that the Jags are playing,
00:11:06
Speaker
of the Jaguars play them except loose forwards. But loose forwards no longer are the best team against loose forwards, they're not second best. And they climbed off the bottom against locks, but locks are whatever. The difference between the average lock score in terms of points rendered is less than 10 points. It's eight points. So, you know, you have some good ones, but for the most part, I wouldn't worry about it.
00:11:35
Speaker
And as we were just talking a few moments ago, if you have Messoriwa and you don't start him, I will punch you. Yeah. And, you know, and it's going to be tempting to not because outside backs against the Jaguars don't do well. But but but this is this might be the one guy to roll out there. Yeah, this might be the one guy to roll out there for the Samos.
00:11:53
Speaker
That's yeah, he might not have a good game, but he's one of those the ceiling is too fucking high Yeah, he's got at least a couple doubles if not a couple hat tricks, right? Yeah, there you go Hurricanes and blues it should be an interesting matchup. We'll talk about later Hurricanes, you know, they're they're middling against a lot of teams If not bad like loose forwards, they don't do well against whatever reason I don't know why well, then what are they gonna play? Are they gonna they're gonna they don't have anything they have nothing to play for
00:12:22
Speaker
Right, and that's the other thing. So you got to be careful of that. So watch their lineup. Yeah, watch their lineup. Watch the Blues lineup, because I don't think they have much to play for either. So yeah, if there's a name like Scott Scrafton out there and you're tempted just because he's starting, don't start him. He's bad. He's been very bad. But yeah, and fly halves against the Hurricanes in general haven't done well, actually. So Terry Black, Harry Plummer, have a seat. I wouldn't play him anyway, but even if you're in a desperate situation, find somebody else.
00:12:52
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. If you start Oteri Black this weekend, I will punch you. How do you know you're making a bad line up decision? Ben's going to punch you. That's how you know. Brumbies and Reds. Reds are kind of one of those clubs that's hot and cold, as well as the Brumbies. As well as the Brumbies. Front rows, both front rows are on the naughty list, so hedge your bets there. Locks for the Brumbies are on the bad list.
00:13:19
Speaker
uh reds for the for lose forwards are on the bad list and then reds oh reds halfback so Sarovi or McDermott depending on which one maybe roll that out there um or if they play this new kid uh what was it Malula or something like that yeah Malula yeah so if you need a halfback he's probably out there actually so if you need a halfback he's probably available um
00:13:45
Speaker
And this might be a match that they both say, let's look to our future. Yeah. It is a good possibility, is that. Brumby's, well, Brumby's midfielders, you're going to play to be to be to Karen Johnny. Simone could be another one that you'd roll out there as well. Reds don't do well against midfielders, but outside backs, the only one I'd play for the Brumby's is probably either Spate or Banks, if Spate's healthy. Right. And if he's playing. Yeah.
00:14:10
Speaker
Stormer sharks this will be a game that both teams need to go after I believe so Be ready for full for full full noise from both of them Sharks midfielders, and I might let um slip on that one. He's not bad, but other than that Wow Sharks half bet sharks half so play shooter. He should do well There you go, and then
00:14:41
Speaker
Yeah, that's it. Wow. Oh no, Stormer's Front Row. Uh-uh, that's right. I need to say, wait, there's one more. I know there is. Yeah, Stormer's Front Row, don't play that. And don't, as much as I love them, don't play Hershley on cheesy, even if he plays, because they don't do it. Stormer's Sharks shut down half packs.
00:14:56
Speaker
And then last one bulls and lions Bulls I think you should be Bulls the only thing I would be cautious of is their halfback situation. No, they're halfbacks light the world on fire anyway So maybe just avoid that all together and then lions midfielders pretty good might be a good role mapu vorster I don't love vorster, but I do like mapu and then if you're desperate for a lock Maybe see if either of the lions locks are available
00:15:25
Speaker
So my question here is for this, uh, bull's lions. Um, does that, I think both of them are, are playoff proof. I think there's, there's no way they can, I don't think the math works out that they can be overtaken that either of them can finish outside the top eight. Wow.
00:15:45
Speaker
So maybe that's that this is a possibility of um, just watch for the lineup lineups to see um You know who their who each team is playing because right, you know, they they may be going for rest over maybe um Maybe over competitiveness. Okay