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Holmesy’s Head Wobble | Strategy Round Table | AFL Fantasy Q&A #PODPOD
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Transcript
Introduction and Panel Overview
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, 7th of July. We are leah coming up on round 18, so the buy rounds have been and gone. We've had our first round back of best 22.
00:00:34
Holmesy
And man, we've got a lot to talk about for you on this episode. we have a full panel on deck, which is good to see. As always, I'll start with two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019.
00:00:46
Holmesy
Harmi, back offer off a bit of a bit of a break. It's nice to have you back off a pretty bumper week for yourself. But how are you, mate?
Team Performance and Podcast Banter
00:00:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah, not too bad, thanks. How's Tomesie? You're just sitting here in admiration of your feats and your quality team and your climb up the rankings.
00:01:06
Jon Harmey
So glad to be here to bask in your glory.
00:01:10
Holmesy
ah Far out. Here we go. ah Thanks, Harmy. And we have the perennial top 1K finisher and a bit of a podcast slut ah last week, Lou. We can we can you know barely get you on for our podcast each week and here you are just giving your services away to other podcasts, hey?
00:01:30
Lew
Oh no, look at me go and when I've had a yeah a really poor fortnight. i just ah I'm a man of the people and Harmi, you took the words right out of my mouth. It's quite the privilege to to bask in this current Holmesy glory. he's ah He's had a great week um and he's he's grinning from ear to ear. He hasn't stopped grinning since he ah jumped on the podcast. so Sam, how are you mate?
00:01:55
Lew
I'm just going to throw to the next guest as well.
00:01:55
Sam
i am I am excellent. Thank you, Lou. Nice to relieve Holmes. You have some podcasting duties there so he can carry the extra weight and expectation of the team on his shoulders that is now built.
00:02:11
Sam
um Yes, i'm I'm doing very well. The draft team is back. I am ah also free from punishment. So, you know, focusing on the ah the competition that matters the most to me at this point.
00:02:25
Holmesy
Yeah, just on that, Sam, we will you give me someone for Jai Caldwell? My
Fantasy Decisions and Trade Risks
00:02:29
Holmesy
draft team's in a bit of hurt this week, slash for the rest of the year.
00:02:33
Sam
I will offer you Dion Prestia, the meatball, ah ah because I know his hamstring is likely just moments away from snapping in half again as well.
00:02:45
Holmesy
You know what? We'll talk off pod. I might actually accept that. But anyway, let's get into the round that was. And yeah, we'll we'll leave mine for a little bit longer. But why don't we get stuck into um our scores and and where we're ranked? So, Lou, I'll kick off with you. How'd you go this week, mate? And what's that senior rank do?
00:03:03
Lew
I went a little bit average this week. I started really well and I thought I might be in for a bit of a larger week this week but was only able to get to the 22-13 and just a ah poor decision over Coldwell, so rather over Zerrett with Coldwell late on the Friday night ah just meant that yeah pretty much tanked my week and I left about 80 points on the table but That's okay. We only slid back about 150 ranks. yeah, average week, Holmesy.
00:03:32
Lew
yeah average wake homes you
00:03:35
Holmesy
Can you just talk us a little bit through that? I mean, I know Caldwell was one of the the obvious trading targets for the week. but you were You were very big on Zeret. What made you sort of flip? Was it just the extra cash?
00:03:48
Holmesy
um Yeah, talk
Rank Rise and Trade Strategy
00:03:49
Holmesy
us through it.
00:03:50
Lew
I was just, I was sort of under the assumption that Adam Chera would be straight back into the midfield and um unfortunately that was what exactly happened but pre-game Vos was sort of talking about throwing his position around a little bit and I just thought I might get ahead of it and I'll i'll trade him this week on a whim to Coldwell, I'll bank some extra cash for this week and You know theoretically, I'd have the guy that most coaches thought could pump a 120 this week. But unfortunately, that meant that instead of going Rankin Merritt, I went Chera Caldwell and actually lost points. So that's ah that's fantasy for you. But um yeah, like I always say, if you've got a narrative behind it and yeah you sort of believe what you're thinking in the moment, then you don't get too upset by it all.
00:04:38
Holmesy
Yep, absolutely right. Sometimes you make the the best decision in this game and it it turns around and bites you. So yeah, if we if we get upset with every little decision we make in this game, it it's not too fun.
00:04:49
Holmesy
Sam, you must have had a rank rise this week considering you're on the podcast, but how did you go?
00:04:55
Sam
Hey, hey, hey, we've um we've broken that rule now um over the last couple of weeks. You should know that. um Yes, did have a little rank rise. In fact, i was pretty much the Ying to Yui's lap. Wow, that's a real tongue twister.
00:05:09
Sam
um I had the opposite of Louis this week. I had a slow start, built into the weekend nicely and finished with 2295, gained about ranks at have me sitting at
00:05:24
Holmesy
Yep. Very, very good, mate. and Fingers crossed you can keep um moving up over the next few weeks and and get towards that 100. Harmi,
Player Impact on Performance
00:05:34
Holmesy
we were going up against each other in the little pod pod league and I'm not going to lie, throughout the weekend, you were going quite large.
00:05:41
Holmesy
um So why don't you let the listeners know how you went and what that's done to your rank.
00:05:45
Jon Harmey
This seems to happen quite a bit with my team. It flops on a Sunday. i don't know. it was just It's just coincidence, I guess. But, um yeah. My score is around 2-3-6-5. So, ah not too bad.
00:06:00
Jon Harmey
um and Out in the dossier ranks, it brought me in a bit. So I'm sitting in basically 5,024, so that must have been a of a rise. I can't remember where I was.
00:06:14
Jon Harmey
At least 1,000 ranks anyway went up this week. So yeah, it was pretty good. yeah on the yeah Captaining Wanganemalera was definitely yeah a ah big sort of step up for me.
00:06:28
Holmesy
Yep. How long have you had Nassai Wanganin-Miller for Harmi?
00:06:31
Jon Harmey
A while, longer than you, you I think, mate. um I don't know, three or four weeks. I got him in the bars.
00:06:39
Holmesy
Yeah, like this is one of those ones that, you know I've... I've tried to learn a little bit from. I remember back in 2021,
Top Picks and Disappointments
00:06:46
Holmesy
the buzz names were, I think it was Took Miller, Rory Laird and Jack Steele were all sort of priced at that sort of 110 range.
00:06:54
Holmesy
um And if you didn't sort of get them at 110 because you thought they were too expensive, um you know, you were hoping they'd come back down. But sometimes players just go on these runs and Wanganee Miller is a perfect example of that. He's just gotten better and better throughout the year. And,
00:07:09
Holmesy
Unfortunately for coaches that don't own him, um he's kind of taken the season away from you. So I was very lucky to be able to get him three weeks ago um because I definitely wouldn't be in the hunt without him. Boys, I had a, well, you guys all know, but a 2482 this week, um which ah was a round rank of eight.
00:07:29
Holmesy
And that's taken my rank from 119 into 30. So yeah, look, it was ah it was a big weekend. ah That Saturday, it seemed like everything went right for me off the back of some trades, which which I'll speak about when we get to a bit later on. But Yeah, look, it was one of those weeks where it's put me in the hunt.
00:07:46
Holmesy
um And yeah, very, very keen to not get ahead of myself.
00:07:49
Sam
Sorry, can you say that can you say that round rank again, Holmesy?
00:07:51
Holmesy
Yeah, you go, Sam.
00:07:55
Sam
What was that?
00:07:57
Holmesy
Round rank of eight.
00:07:59
Sam
is that Is that missing a number? 88?
00:08:03
Holmesy
Nope.
00:08:03
Sam
i idea No? Oh, goodness gracious. I didn't even know the numbers went that low for round ranks.
00:08:10
Holmesy
Yeah, and and funnily enough, it's still like not my career round rank either. In 2021, when I came second, I came fourth for the week and and still didn't get it done.
00:08:16
Sam
Okay, all right, we get it. We get it. Let's go. Let's move on to the strategy roundtable.
00:08:20
Holmesy
but But yeah, look, it's it was one of those weeks that you all dream of, everyone dreams of having because it's just an absolute game changer. um I'm not going to lie. i got kissed with a few things that happened, but um you definitely do need some luck in this game.
00:08:35
Holmesy
um And and there' from there, hopefully, we can keep flying. Lou, why don't you give us your Stato and Dossie picks for the week?
00:08:43
Lew
My Stato pick, I'll give it to McKercher. He's just kept keeping on, which has been good. Got him pretty much at his basement price. Not as low as Harmy. We got him about 14 weeks ago, but still nonetheless, I think I paid about 600k for him. So to pump out a 124, I'm actually thinking that potentially McKercher could be a keeper for us despite picking him at such a value price. And we know that over the years, despite a little bit of a game-style tweak, that the North Melbourne rebounding defenders have been plentiful from a fantasy perspective. So, fingers crossed on that one. as far as my Dossie Pick of the Week, I'm going
Drafting Strategies and Player Roles
00:09:23
Lew
to give it to Gorn, who...
00:09:24
Lew
ah Probably made a mistake holding over the bye, but was hoping that he could back up last week's 80-odd score with something a little bit more significant, but unfortunately went to 89. So not the reward I was hoping for from ruck. That's probably a little bit of a point of difference now.
00:09:43
Holmesy
Would you say, Lou, that it was obviously pretty nerve-wracking at the time to do and and could have gone the other way, but if you had your time ah time again, would you have pivoted to Marshall or Grundy from Gorn during the bye?
00:09:56
Lew
Yeah, yeah, definitely. And ah Marshall was pretty much in all week until some bloody journalist tweeted out that he was a a little bit sorer than um what they were sort of letting on. So unfortunately, that's a bit of a sliding doors moment. But I think Gorn will have a strong finish to the year as well.
00:10:14
Holmesy
Welcome Lou to the the PTSD club from getting sucked into a journo around Rowan Marshall. I did the same thing last year and traded him out for back-to-back 160. So ah we'll we'll we'll learn for it, but yeah, not ideal.
00:10:24
Lew
Oh, wow.
00:10:27
Holmesy
Sam, what are your picks for the week?
00:10:30
Sam
I um want to give my Stato Pick of the Week to a young lad that had to step up for me in Bailey Smith's absence. um And that was, of course, Alex Tauru, the Viking, as he's being affectionately called amongst fans and and media.
00:10:46
Sam
um Nice little 63, and I'll take it because my trades were locked and I couldn't really do anything. am Dossier pick of the week will go to ah my pod, George Hewitt. 68 points. Thought he was a certainty to bounce back to some of his earlier season form with Sam Walsh missing out of that midfield. But um the Carlton drop-off has been, wow, harsher than expected.
00:11:14
Sam
And um he's now, between him and Chera, I'm now thinking about maybe getting rid of one of them over the next coming weeks. um But yeah, it's a bit of a headache sitting in the midfield now for me.
00:11:29
Holmesy
I think for content, Sam, you're actually not allowed to get rid of Adam Chera. um Contractually, you need to stick by your boy for the rest of the year now. So um it might have to be George Hewitt.
00:11:39
Sam
That's actually fine.
00:11:43
Holmesy
Harmi, what are your picks for the week?
00:11:45
Jon Harmey
um Look, I actually had a couple of good trade-ins on the weekend, so but I think I might throw it to Jeremy Cameron. Even though he did kick four goals, five, it could have been a lot higher, but 117 in the forward line there, so that was pretty good.
00:12:00
Jon Harmey
Don't know how long I'll hold him for, but I thought I'd stream him a bit against Richmond and
Sydney's Influence on Strategies
00:12:06
Jon Harmey
he'll probably hold his pace for a bit. My dossier pick of the week... I think I'll go Caleb Sorong. I mean, 46 points. This is a great inside midfielder.
00:12:19
Jon Harmey
Should expect to get tagged every week. Should be able to work through a tag. But, um yeah, I mean, you just see these flaws some weeks, but you cop that and it does hurt. 46 points from a guy priced a million dollars. so yeah, that was a bit hard to take.
00:12:37
Holmesy
Hey, Sam, do you reckon we should go back through the receipts from, I think, the podcast maybe two or three weeks ago when Harmi had smiles from ear to ear about Caleb Sorong? He thought he was smarter than all of us.
00:12:49
Holmesy
um Yeah, I think that that's a bit interesting.
00:12:51
Sam
No, yeah, I don't want to go back through the receipts because I'm pretty sure when Harmi said he was trading him in, I was like, oh, don't do that. And then he went for 140 the next week. So I'm happy for the receipts just to to sit where they lie. And we'll say we've all broken even somehow.
00:13:08
Jon Harmey
I think that's probably a smart move, Sam, i'm considering in the first quarter on the weekend, I recall a barrage of messages about how bad Isaac Rakey is and how bad a hold he was. Only for him to kick five goals and score 100 fantasy points for you.
00:13:23
Sam
I was just, as you know, exercising my right to send a rocket to one of my players that needed a little bit of help in the group chat. And boy, was I good over the weekend because I hit five out of five rockets. It was a performance worth discussing.
00:13:37
Sam
and And I'll be looking to do the same this week.
00:13:41
Holmesy
No, Sam, it was five from six because you fired one at Petrarca, the only one that I actually own, and and that was unsuccessful. So appreciate that.
00:13:50
Sam
Yes, true. You're right. Five from six.
00:13:54
Holmesy
Beautiful. ah So my Stato pick of the week um has to be Zach Merritt. um So I traded him out the week prior, had to stick through the, I think I didn't get the 149. So I think I had four weeks of Zach Merritt for 80 average.
00:14:09
Holmesy
eighty average um Took a bit of balls to go there from from Adam Chera, but was very stoked with the 145. And that's where I talk about being kissed. You know, Jai Caldwell was definitely someone I was looking at and and had different trade scenarios where he was coming in, ah but getting merit for not only that score and then Caldwell being shifted out of the midfield at times and then getting injured um definitely helps my case there. But yeah, Zach Merritt.
00:14:35
Holmesy
Very happy with that trade in. And my Stato pick for the week, ah sorry, my Dossie pick for the week, Christian Petrarca, 70 points. Sam, you mentioned it. Tough matchup against Adelaide, but he was on, I think, 44 quite early in that game and and then faded
23rd Premium Player Debate
00:14:50
Holmesy
out. So, yeah, it wasn't the strongest finish that we wanted from Petrarca, but I think he's going to be pretty good moving forward. Lou, do you do you think we stick with Christian Petrarca for the time being?
00:15:00
Lew
Yeah, look, I think we have to. The forward line's pretty grim. um And I think Petrarca is as good as any player from a football sense, but also fantasy is showing that he can go back to his 100 to 110 scoring if he finds a bit of form. I just think ah it's probably a bit of a symptom of the D's form at the moment too, where it's very up and down.
00:15:22
Holmesy
Yeah, I think i think if you're a coach that has seven forwards, then maybe you could potentially look to move him on. But I think if you're upgrading him in the forward line, ah the forwards are so up and down that I think you just stick with him for now. And and hopefully maybe you'll get a 23rd premium at some stage um to be able to do some looping in the forward line.
00:15:41
Holmesy
Boys, before we get into the hot topics, let's just go over the pod pod challenge quickly. So at the moment, we have 16 coaches in the top 100, 15 plus yours truly, if you don't mind. Still two coaches in the top 10. So we've got Niso FC, which is Michael's team sitting at eighth.
00:15:58
Holmesy
He's been up there for a while. And then Lachlan's team, is it the Nacosians, sitting in 10th as well. So ah Pretty awesome to see so many PodPod Challenge members up at the pointy end.
00:16:11
Holmesy
And just a reminder that the winner of the PodPod Challenge will receive a custom AFL Fantasy ring from our friends at supercoachchampion.com. So head over there if you want to look at those type of things for your own individual leagues.
00:16:24
Jon Harmey
Is that your place, Hymz, that ring?
00:16:24
Holmesy
Army.
00:16:27
Holmesy
Yep.
00:16:28
Jon Harmey
It's staying here, is it?
00:16:29
Holmesy
you reckon it should stay there? Yeah.
00:16:30
Jon Harmey
It's staying here.
00:16:34
Holmesy
Nice one. Nice one, Harmi. All right, let's get on to the hot topics for the round. And I suppose we do need to start with Bailey Smith. um He's been an unreal fantasy scorer for us this year, ah but he hasn't been without his headache. So laid out on Saturday, we were very lucky that that news came out from Mitch Cleary pretty early in the day and and coaches were were able to sort of plan what they wanted to do I know some coaches traded, so he's now 86% owned in the top thousand.
00:17:05
Holmesy
So still very highly owned, but um there's probably about 14% of coaches that have had traded him out due to not wanting to cop a donut loose.
00:17:07
Jon Harmey
me
00:17:15
Holmesy
I suppose the the question that I'll pose to you, if you were a coach that traded him out, do we have to look to get him back in straight away knowing what he can do? or do you think you take it on for a while?
00:17:26
Lew
yeah well I think if he's back in, ah it's not a player that I'd want to take on. We saw in the first half of the season, certainly before the buys and some of his injury troubles, that he was pretty much the most consistent player in the comp and was just about a shoe in every week to go 120. Oh, I think personally, if he plays this weekend, then he's fit enough to, um you know, take a risk on and um to bring back into your side. Because if he's playing, then i don't think the cats are, you know, I don't think they're going to risk him. So I'd be trading back into him as soon as I possibly could.
00:18:02
Lew
But yeah, keeping in mind, he is what 1.2 mil now is at homesy.
00:18:07
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah. And I suppose
Climbing Fantasy Rankings
00:18:09
Holmesy
you'd hope that a lot of coaches carried over cash and didn't use it all um to fix their teams on the weekend. But yeah, Yeah, 1.2 mil, Lou. It's a a lot to a lot to get up to. You're probably having to go from a a genuine premium to get up to him.
00:18:23
Holmesy
Does have GWS this week on Saturday. Harmi, does it make you a little bit nervous too to kind of hold your trades back a little bit this week, knowing that you know Geelong are going to name him up?
00:18:36
Holmesy
That's what they do. And he could potentially be a laid out again if he doesn't make the line.
00:18:40
Jon Harmey
It definitely could. I mean, they said he was ill, but I think there's been some inconsistencies from players and stuff around what's actually going on. He must be carrying something, I expect. So, yeah, I held, obviously. I'd actually used trades before that news came out, which is a bit of a shame. But, um yeah, I guess guess time will tell. then The 86% may be trading this week.
00:19:05
Jon Harmey
may be trading him out this week
00:19:08
Holmesy
Yeah. would you Would you trade him out again if he was a ah laid out?
00:19:13
Jon Harmey
um Yeah, oh I think, you know, if he's missing two weeks this time of year when he should actually be wanting to be playing, um hitting his straps, you know, getting some brown low boats.
00:19:18
Sam
Thank you.
00:19:26
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think there must be something going on. So if he does miss, then I'd be tempted to trade.
00:19:33
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Agree with that. Sam, the next one I want to talk about is Tristan Cherry. So he's out of form at the moment, and but we were all, I think we're all sort of watching that game or at least we've seen footage.
00:19:46
Holmesy
It didn't really look good and it looked a lot like concussion. Now the clubs come out and said that it isn't and they're still monitoring him, but playing late on the Sunday, I think it's the second last game.
00:19:59
Holmesy
kind of similar to the Bailey Smith thing. Does this make you want to sort of hold your trades back knowing that at least if Smith's out, we can cover with someone. But if Tristan Cherry's are laid out on Sunday, that's donut that we're all eating. What do you think with Tristan Cherry?
00:20:13
Jon Harmey
Thank
00:20:13
Sam
Yeah, maybe. i mean, it's worth thinking about, but I mean, how long how hold long can we hold these trades? um You know, chances are most of our trades are going to be or involve players that play before the Sunday. um You're kind of limiting, you probably end up limiting your options in some way. His form's really down, um you know, hasn't cracked a ton in, what, four weeks um and and takes on Max this weekend. Yeah.
00:20:40
Sam
if if I don't know if it's ah if it's the best improvement you can make to your team, but if you wanted to jump off him and and get to an English or or a Grundy instead, I wouldn't begrudge you, but I think we've got um other improvements to be made elsewhere at or f six
00:20:58
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, it's just something to think about. The last thing we want is coaches copping a donut in the ruck line. and And let's be honest, he's very highly owned. So it would be a lot of coaches that... That did it, I suppose, maybe if Butters was your target this round and maybe you're going from a Caleb Daniel, at least a Caleb Daniel ah plays in the same game as Tristan Cherry, so you could kind of pivot those trades. But you are right, it does um seriously limit your options. But, yeah, I think it's just something to think about, especially with the rolling lockout.
00:21:27
Holmesy
um Yeah, eating a donut does terrify me. Lou, I'll go to you
00:21:31
Sam
Well, Holmesy, you could always ah could always take him down to Briggs this week, couldn't you, who bounced back, and that would allow you to make an upgrade elsewhere. Surely that's um on the ah the hot topics for discussion.
00:21:45
Holmesy
Sam, we're going to get to trades from coaches outside the top 100 that are looking to try and take a risk to get in. So if you want to float that idea when we get there, be my guest, but not sure. I could be...
00:21:58
Holmesy
yeah
Defensive Play Impact
00:22:00
Holmesy
Going that way anyway. Lou, I'll go to you for this one and sorry that I am going to you, but Jai Caldwell, um it has since come out ah per Mitch Cleary that he's going in for surgery. So unfortunately, that is a ah forced trade at this time of year. um You can't be holding that much money on the bench ah with a player with ah an uncertain timeline of return.
00:22:21
Holmesy
What are you thinking with it with a Jai Caldwell? Are you looking to try and fix up sort of two spots on field similar to what I did with a Chera and a Long this week? Or are you maybe looking, since he was one of your top guys that you were just trying to lock away, are you maybe thinking of you know playing it safe and and maybe going to a Goulden or someone higher? What are your initial thoughts with Caldwell?
00:22:42
Lew
I like the idea of getting creative with this one and doing something similar to what you did last week, Holmesy. I think um a lot of the cash grabs that we're doing at the moment are granting about 150k, maybe 200k if you've got a really fat one on the bench or you're not throwing it away for a red dot.
00:23:01
Lew
um but the good thing about coldwell is he's actually got some cash on his head at 1.05 mil and we've got a couple of players which i'm sure we're going to discuss throughout this podcast who come in at a pretty discounted price is there it's definitely one of them who we've mentioned um jason horn francis dunkley like these guys are guys that we've probably been speaking about for a couple of weeks now but are avenues
00:23:22
Holmesy
think we just lost Lou there. Harmi, I'll just cut in. Why don't you continue on? So you don't have Caldwell, but yeah, do you echo Louie's thoughts about trying to get creative with these and and maybe using it to fix up a Doherty Bergman type that's not a full premium?
00:23:39
Jon Harmey
um Yes, unless, depends on where your team's at. I mean, unless you're, um yep, got a bit of cash, you want chuck it on top and and target a Errol Gordon type, I hope that could be an option.
00:23:55
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, definitely definitely something to think about. And without knowing what other issues we have at team selections yet, it's it's too hard to speculate. But yeah, I do like the idea of of getting creative.
00:24:06
Holmesy
The other one I just wanted to throw in here, and just to put it on the radar of coaches is, um and they're all probably a aware, but sydney ah Sydney are well and truly back. If you look at the stats over the last sort of month, um they have become super restrictive again. You look at the midfield numbers from the Bulldogs game last week, it was a Bontz 70, Libber 50, Richards 80.
00:24:27
Holmesy
This week it was a Sarong 40, Brayshaw 80. Even Jackson that was playing midfield saved his scores with goals. So, You need to be very careful with your premiums coming up against Sydney. They're back to running the Jordan midfield tag.
00:24:40
Holmesy
Row Bottom's been doing jobs in there as well. um And also Braden Campbell across that forward line taking the the team's dangerous halfback. So um we're going to get to the strategy in terms of looping in a little bit, but um just be just be aware of what Sydney are doing and and make sure you're taking into account when you're looking at your VC options and things like that.
00:24:59
Holmesy
And
Defensive and Forward Strategies
00:25:00
Holmesy
Sam, one I just wanted to sort of talk to you a little bit about at the moment, and I don't know whether their stats 100% back it up, but I'm pretty sure it does. Just thinking about Adelaide, so it seems that ever since um Sam Berry has come into the side there and Peatling has gone back into the midfield, Adelaide, they're definitely playing a more like spread midfield sort of strategy now and You'll see that Dawson hasn't really had any ceiling scores in a while, um you know, ranking outside of the game that he had on the weekend. He's playing a lot more forward and and kicking goals.
00:25:32
Holmesy
Does it worry you with this Adelaide team and and picking premiums there, knowing that, you know, they're resting and and playing all these different roles?
00:25:40
Sam
Yeah, maybe a touch. um I think the point you make around Dawson is a valid one. and We've seen it happen various points last year and um only occasionally this year is he gets rested forward a little bit.
00:25:54
Sam
um But you're right, Berry's CBA numbers are up. Peatling has taken more share post-buy. Dawson's CBA numbers are still really strong, um but we are seeing that that resting forward a little bit more so.
00:26:11
Sam
I'm not so sure there's many Adelaide players we're interested in, but Isaac Rankin is certainly one that I'm thinking about hopping off this week um despite scoring 100. The truth is he's not going to kick five goals um every week. So he's he'd be he's one that i'm I'm happy to trade out. And I think apart from him and Dawson, there's probably no one else we're particularly interested in in Adelaide. Maybe Laird, but after his game on the weekend, i think anyone who might have been looking at him would probably put that to bed.
00:26:42
Holmesy
Yeah, I think the point around Dawson's the big one. I know a lot of coaches got burnt on the weekend rolling into a Dawson captain because he's been he's been a pretty safe and good captain option for most of the year for us. But I just think at the moment um we need to avoid Dawson as captain.
00:26:57
Holmesy
um And then until things turn around, I think we'd just be happy if we get a ceiling score from him. um But yeah, just take him off those captaincy plans. All right, let's get into the strategy round table. And the first one I kind of wanted to deep dive with you boys is the idea of this 23rd premium.
00:27:15
Holmesy
um Lou, before we get into this, have we got you back?
00:27:20
Holmesy
We don't. Harmy, the 23rd premium. Now, this came into vogue last year with um Chris, who won the comp. His main strategy to to get ahead of the comp late last year was to have a 23rd and a 24th premium um so that when these midfield um premiums were being tagged, he was then able to loop ah a 23rd, 24th guy on to help get him ahead of the comp. Now, I just wanted to talk through this with you guys because I think ah ah it's only been a one-game sample size so far, but I don't think the 23rd premium is working just yet.
00:27:54
Holmesy
I think last year we had so many good cash options that the 23rd premium, you'll remember, we were able to get Rosie for about 700K off the back of a couple of really low injured games. I think Tom Green had a seven and then had a month of about 80, which meant he was down really low as well.
00:28:14
Holmesy
Sam, I'll go to you. like If the 23rd premium is a thing at the moment, do you feel like we're taking a punt on too many of these sort of mid-price guys and that as it stands right now, Tom McCarthy is a more than capable 23rd premium and we should be looking to bolster our on-field scoring first?
00:28:32
Sam
Yeah, you make a good you make a good point, Holmesy. And yeah McCarthy is certainly doing the job for us at the moment. um I think the one thing I will say is if you haven't got some of these top-end guys like Nazair in the back line, there's probably not many in this boat, but say
Looping Strategies Risks and Benefits
00:28:49
Sam
a Dacos in midfield or you know maybe now you can even add Goulden into that conversation or you know as Smith, Kennedy, um maybe throw McRae in there up forwards ah Martin, I'd be very much wanting to get these kind of non-negotiable kind of you know six to eight guys that we're talking about.
00:29:10
Sam
Once you've got that, then I think you can explore the 23rd premium option because there's probably... four spots in midfield that you could throw a blanket over. There's probably four three spots up forward you could throw a blanket over. um And so that's where I'd be looking first. improve Get those absolute must-have guys, then maybe explore playing around with a 23rd premium and and run McCarthy until then.
00:29:39
Holmesy
Harmi, I want your opinion on the this looping game because back when when we were successful, there you know there was the fixed lockout. The looping wasn't a thing and it it's really come into vogue over the last few seasons with the rolling lockout.
00:29:53
Holmesy
We saw this week the dangers of what looping can do. So any any team that was looping in the forward line and then only had the six forwards, you're either copying a donut or you were copying an Alga eight. Or you know maybe you got a Tyru 60, maybe you got a a Loman 58, which on another day could have been a 20 or 30.
00:30:14
Holmesy
With the looping, you need to make sure you've got absolute flexibility within your whole squad so that you've got the ability to flick players from back to mid to forward. Do you find the looping game a very dangerous way to play fantasy? And unless you're absolutely onto it 24-7, you just stay away from it?
00:30:33
Jon Harmey
Yeah, that's right. You do have to have time over the weekend to put into it and make your adjustments. So it is a bit more time consuming. Look, it's not
Team Improvements and Value Targeting
00:30:41
Jon Harmey
something that I've really mastered, I suppose, but ah yeah i i mean it was the reason last couple of years that the coaches have won, isn't it? So i think you've definitely got to consider it.
00:30:53
Jon Harmey
um And using your example on the weekend, there's probably enough heads up that people could have elected to trade Baz if they were caught in that one.
00:31:05
Jon Harmey
i think it's I think that last year there was a lot of cash around because of the way that the rookies worked out and the unpriced premium. So may not be as much opportunity to do it this year, but there are people that have a high ceiling that are getting to a price. I mean,
00:31:22
Jon Harmey
You talked about flexibility. Well, I'll throw one at you that's going to be a good priced option. Mid forward, $721,000, Jason Horne Francis. Like there's a reason why he's dropped so much cash, but in two weeks time, he could be your perfect um loop option, I reckon.
00:31:39
Holmesy
Yeah, you do raise a good point. I think what Jason Horn Francis was on tour at quarter a time and then he was definitely um one of the beneficiaries with Radagalia going down. It meant Bergman went back out of the midfield and and Horn Francis was back involved.
00:31:54
Holmesy
Yeah. But yeah, no, you are right. it's We just had so many like gun players available at cheap prices last year. but Let's use the example of like ah a Flanders was a name that was was floated. um you know Some people have you know ran Doherty there.
00:32:11
Holmesy
um you know if you're going to get a McCarthy that's going to get you 70, 80 or 90, then I feel at the moment that's more than enough um until you bolster your squad. And then if you can get a genuine one around sort of around nineteen round 19, round 20, I think that could be the play, Harmi.
00:32:26
Jon Harmey
Yeah, and um you mentioned McCarthy before, but i mean, there's people that are low in price all over the place. If you just want to take a fly on them, I mean, you have to do a bit of research. But look at Paddy Dangerfield. I mean, they play a heap of games at home coming up. um He's a mid-forward. $520,000. I mean, he's like, yeah, you just got get creative if that's what you want to have a go at.
00:32:50
Holmesy
Yeah, Jack Martin as well, his Geelong teammate, I suppose.
00:32:52
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:32:53
Holmesy
Yeah, and there are options.
00:32:54
Jon Harmey
Well, he's more expensive. He's $600,000.
Balancing Cash Flow and Trade Choices
00:32:56
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. But I think Sam's point's good. um The loop's not going to help you if you don't have some of these top top guys that are putting 140s and 150s on your head. So I think coaches need to look to go there first before having the safety of that 23rd that's giving you that 70 or 80 coming on if you're one of your premium fails. Yeah.
00:33:16
Holmesy
The other part I wanted to talk about now, we're in a not a bad spot here at the PodPod where Harmi, no offense, but you're you're at it sort of 5K, but you're charging and Sam's sort of around that 300 mark and looking to attack a hat. And I'm fortunate enough to be in the 100. So I just wanted to sort of talk a little bit about sort of strategy this week.
00:33:35
Holmesy
what we're looking to do with our trades to see if it differs and to give the listeners a little bit of an insight. So, Hami, I'll start with you. what are you looking to do this week and how are you looking to sort of attack the next few weeks to make sure you keep rising up the ranks?
00:33:48
Jon Harmey
ah I mentioned um Errol Gordon before, but I'm still sort of looking at underpriced people. I'm looking at... Well, my current trade is, yeah, getting Bergman up to Lockie Whitfield because i feel as though Whitfield is cheap on the back of that injury.
00:34:06
Jon Harmey
Coming back this week should be good. But, yeah, I'm still looking at people that I feel are a bit underpriced and targeting them. Zach Butters...
00:34:19
Jon Harmey
Yeah, a lot of people will be going Zach Merritt, won't they? But I've already got him, traded him in this week as well. So, yeah, I don't know. But there's others around.
00:34:30
Jon Harmey
Josh Kelly, he put up a nice score on the weekend. He's priced at 800,000. So, yeah, I'm not too sure at the moment, but I'm probably likely to cash out a rookie and put that on Bergman, get him out to Whitfield, just something simple like that.
00:34:45
Holmesy
Yeah, because it's been bit of a bit of a running joke on the pod, but your team value for someone that's ranked at 5K is ridiculously good, right?
00:34:45
Jon Harmey
Depends if Smith plays.
00:34:53
Holmesy
So your you're still
Safe Trade Moves and High-Value Players
00:34:55
Holmesy
wanting to target the value rather than you know paying up for an Errol Goulden, for example, this week. Do you think that's going to benefit your team more? Do you feel like you might run out of cash towards the end of the year if you you target these players?
00:35:07
Jon Harmey
um Well, they won't run out of cash. I'm going to try and get the cash on field. It's probably what I should be trying to do. So yeah, that's what I was after, mate.
00:35:20
Jon Harmey
And you you talk about team value, let's have a look. Yeah, so I'm about 400,000 behind you.
00:35:31
Holmesy
Yeah, which is, yeah, very decent. Sam, talk us through your thoughts this week. And, you know, you're at your 300. So clearly you're attacking the 100 to try and to sneak in there to win a hat. So what are you looking to do at the moment?
00:35:45
Sam
Yeah, I'm just, ah like i kind of said before, I'm ah'm missing a few of these top-line guys, um and I need to get them. It's as simple as that. So I don't have Nazair, don't have Zorko, and I'm missing quite a few of the forwards. So ah I'm looking to trade out a forward probably this week. ah I'm pretty keen on Jack McRae. I was keen on him last week, but just had Tom Green ever so slightly ahead of him because I like the West Coast matchup.
00:36:12
Sam
um I like McRae's run home. I like the price, and I'm i'm happy to move on um someone in the forward line, probably Rankin, because I do feel like he's got a floor score coming up playing that majority forward time.
00:36:26
Sam
um So those are the trade thoughts at the moment. ah Probably just a traditional one-up, one-down. um Maybe downgrade. I've got a little bit of cash, so maybe downgrade Boxer if he's not named again and just just try and keep um the cash in rolling.
00:36:43
Holmesy
Yeah, so you're not looking to do anything too crazy just yet. You're just looking to get that you know worst scoring player in your field up and you're just looking to chip away until you've locked away some of those top guys that the the coaches ahead of you have.
00:36:56
Sam
Yeah, exactly. i mean, ah I didn't do anything crazy this weekend, had a nice score, went up rank. So
Sydney's Defensive Strategy Impact
00:37:03
Sam
I don't really feel the need to go too wild yet. I still think I'm a chance at um of of sneaking my way into the top 100 if I get a good week um and if I just make these traditional moves.
00:37:17
Sam
As we get a little bit closer, I might start to get a bit funky and and really look up one two week stream matchup option type things. But no, at this stage, I'm just um still happy to play it safe.
00:37:26
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:37:30
Holmesy
Yep, yep, fair enough. And often me for myself being in the 100, I'm not looking to play any differently at the moment. I know it's going to get very matchup-based soon, but I still feel a lot like you, Sam, that there's still a few players in my squad that are not scoring as well as they could be in terms of the top guys. So I'm not looking to get too creative just yet. I took the punt last week and got creative and that paid off and and now it's just about still for the next few weeks.
00:37:58
Holmesy
um continuing to to cash out on the bench, getting that on field up to some of the top end guys. I do like the idea of an Errol Goulden this week. ah The Windhager tag I think is going to be real, but Errol's built different. And um even a tag for him you know is ah a 95 or a low ton.
00:38:15
Holmesy
And we know he's got a ceiling on his day if he doesn't have any attention. So, yeah I think just being smart at the moment, not looking at the the teams around me too much. you've Any team that's in the top 100 so far has has played the game their way. They've seen it well and and they've got to this point. And I don't think it's the time to freak out too much yet and and try and be different for the sake of it, Harmi.
00:38:36
Jon Harmey
Holmesy, you made a comment earlier. You said something like Sydney's back or I didn't see them play on the weekend. Can you just elaborate on that a bit? I mean, because there are other players at Sydney you could consider like Callum Mills, Isaac Keeney, but yeah, obviously Gordon there that you mentioned.
00:38:56
Jon Harmey
So you've got a level of confidence in Sydney.
00:38:59
Holmesy
So what I meant by that, Harmi, was that um
Top Performing Defenders
00:39:02
Holmesy
Sydney have traditionally been known for a very tough team to play against and very restrictive for fantasy scoring. um We weren't seeing that um throughout the start of the year, but they're well and truly back now. So they're they're running tags. So like I said,
00:39:16
Holmesy
This week it was Campbell to Clark. He blanketed him for 40. Jordan blanketed Sorong and then Rowbottom was doing jobs in the midfield as well. The week before it was against the Bulldogs.
00:39:27
Holmesy
um Campbell went to Bailey Dale after halftime and and kept him to 20 points in the second half. um They didn't tag Bont, but he didn't get away from him. And then they tagged Ed Richards to an 80, which we know what he's been doing. So that's what I meant by that, Harmi.
00:39:42
Holmesy
um I did like Callum Mills' role on the weekend. um he didn't really lock down and he was getting a lot of cheap ball um between him and Errol in the back half. So yeah, I do like Callum Mills. He's not someone I'm looking to target at the moment as I don't think he's going to be a top six defender, but I think coaches that had Callum Mills over the last couple of weeks would be a lot more confident in his role moving forward um compared to the 60 that they had last week. So that yeah, that was my that was my comment around Sydney.
00:40:11
Holmesy
which is a good segue. So we are going to answer some questions, but what I wanted to do quickly was just have a chat around the defenders and the midfielders, and maybe we will move into... Actually, maybe we'll just go defenders this week, and then we'll move into the midfielders the next week. So what I wanted to do is just go over sort of the top six defenders for the season, and then have a look at the top six defenders over the last three, and maybe talk about some of the highly owned players that don't feature and where coaches can kind of get a bit of a leg up um to try and push for the back half of the year. So as it stands, the top top six defenders for the season, we've got Nassaya, Rosie, Zorko, Ash, Shizu and Whitfield.
00:40:52
Holmesy
um All Nassaya at a 111 average down to Whitfield 102, but we know what Whitfield was doing before his injury. And then from there, over the last six,
00:41:03
Holmesy
You've still got Nassaya, you've got Zorko and Ash, but then Colby is actually the second highest averaging defender over the last three. um You've got Holmes right up there and then Jake Lloyd, which we're not touching. But if you're looking at that list, boys, what kind of sticks out to you in terms of that? For me, it's Dane Zorko, the third highest averaging defender for the year, only 20% owned in the top um And his form is still right up there. So no doubt
Harry Sheasel's Role and Trade Decisions
00:41:32
Holmesy
coaches would have jumped off over the buy because they were heavy in round 16, Sam. But what out of that list sort of sticks out to you in a way that coaches can kind of get ahead?
00:41:42
Sam
I think you've um pointed out perfectly, Holmesy. Zorko's right there and um he does he's got a bit of a mixed run um on the way home from here. Some good, some bad. and We've also got Kitty Coleman on the horizon again. Didn't seem to affect him too much the first time he came to back.
00:42:00
Sam
and But, you know, maybe Kitty's a bit stronger for it this time. I still like Zorko. still think he's a good trade-in if you were looking upgrade a defender and you already have Nazair. Nazair's clearly...
00:42:12
Sam
far and away the closest target, pretty highly owned. I do love Whitfield either this week or next when he's a bit cheaper. um I think he'll be ah great add. The other thing that sticks out for me, Holmes, is Sinclair. They're 63% owned. um You know, hasn't been on the mark of late, apart from maybe one game, not last week, but the week before. So if you've got Sinclair floating at D6 and you're in the top 100, um,
00:42:39
Sam
um geez, I don't mind it. I don't mind moving him on to someone else um and trying to get ahead that way. and But by the same token, you know, Naz is getting a lot of focus in the media now. And we know that as soon as that happens, coaches start thinking about tags. And he's got Sydney this week. We've just mentioned Braden Campbell, James Jordan. So maybe Sinclair hasn't bounced back. But look, that's the decisions we have to weigh up and and make.
00:43:07
Holmesy
Harmi, what do you think about Sinclair? His run does open up, but when you've got Nassaya averaging 126 over his last six games or whatever it is, there's only so much ball to go around.
00:43:15
Sam
Thank you.
00:43:18
Holmesy
Can we realistically expect Sinclair to be a top six defender or is he someone that we might need to loop at some stage if you do decide to hold him?
00:43:27
Jon Harmey
Straight swap Sinclair to Lockie Whitfield this week based on price. So that would be yeah quite a nice move for some that want to take the punt and get ahead of the game.
00:43:39
Jon Harmey
I have Sinclair. um Things have changed this season for him because Wanganin Malera is a prolific
00:43:50
Jon Harmey
rebounding defender. They want the ball in his hands at every opportunity. So Sinclair's role
Listener Questions on Trade Decisions
00:43:56
Jon Harmey
is less fantasy relevant. However, I guess I have a level of comfort um and he he's not my highest priority trade out. So I'm just going to ah roll with him, I expect, for the time being.
00:44:10
Holmesy
Sam, before we go on to the questions, I'll just throw you this one other name. And it's a it is a hot topic due to his role. Harry Sheasel, 80% owned.
00:44:21
Holmesy
I don't think it's the week to do it at the moment with their their midfield outs. It's confirmed that LDU is out with concussion. Wardlaw's still not coming back. um Maybe Parker returns, but you would hope that Sheasel gets more midfield time this week. And even then, are they're playing Melbourne, which is a bit of a softer matchup for you know your midfielders and your forwards anyway.
00:44:44
Holmesy
But is Harry Sheasel someone that coaches could maybe look to jump off at some stage over the next sort of month, knowing that he is so highly owned?
00:44:53
Sam
um He's not for me. like ah I actually still have quite a bit of confidence in their Sheasel role, even though you know notness his CBAs haven't been there necessarily lately.
00:45:05
Sam
um ah I've just seen him, like I've actually for some reason been watching North games, God knows why, but he's actually still, he's doing that kind of Nick Martin role where he'll start at a half forward at centre bounce, but then he'll happily roll back and get the kick in off Colby.
00:45:20
Sam
um or Caleb Daniel, whoever's taking the kick out. So I have actually no issue with the Sheasel role. Obviously, when he gets involved in the CBAs, that's when we see the real quarter-by-quarter scoring rises, and that's what I'd love to see moving forward because I think when he operates at 50% CBAs, he can go at 110%.
00:45:40
Sam
um When he doesn't have that, maybe he pulls back to a 95-100. But I'm okay with the role for now. I don't think it's as bad as everyone says it is just because he's starting at half-fourth.
00:45:52
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, fair enough. He could be one as well, like I say, the 23rd premium if you if you loop him, knowing that he's got a ceiling on his day. But we have seen now a couple of sort of 60s and 80s and 90s that are you know not the scores that we need when we're hunting at the back end of the year.
00:46:10
Holmesy
Alright boys, let's finish off
Player Role Changes in Brisbane
00:46:11
Holmesy
the podcast with some questions. Now do need to apologise. We do have the askmeonq.com forward slash podpodafl platform ah to help answer all of your AFL fantasy questions which I have been a little bit slack of at late and there was a few questions that didn't get answered so I do sincerely apologise for that but um being on school holidays. Now, if you do want um your fantasy questions answered, feel free to head over to <unk>ue Platforms for full team reviews, questions, or individual player questions.
00:46:44
Holmesy
um Be more than happy to help out with those.
00:46:47
Jon Harmey
from the eighth round rank coach in Australia, Holmesy.
00:46:48
Holmesy
Sam, I'll go to you.
00:46:54
Holmesy
Thanks for that one, Ami.
00:46:55
Sam
Start charging more, honey.
00:46:57
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:46:59
Holmesy
All right, Sam, I'll go to you first. This one is from LM. Who goes first out of Bergman, Darcy or Daniel? And they'll either go to Whitfield or Goulden. So first off, who do you go out?
00:47:11
Holmesy
Bergman, Darcy or Daniel?
00:47:12
Sam
Hmm. What's Darcy's next few look like? Adelaide, Lions, and then he has Essendon. Yeah, tricky one. like I'm leaning towards Bergman or Darcy there in that list. I think if you've held Bergman for a while, you know maybe he's done his job, made a bit of coin and you're happy to trade him out. But he only went back to um the back line this week because of that Radagalia injury, as you mentioned, Holmesy. And we've seen that if he's a centre-bounce midfielder, he scores pretty damn well.
00:47:48
Sam
Darcy having Adelaide and Lions are two tough matchups, you'd think, for him, but he is a bit of a unicorn. I'm probably happy to move Bergman on first and get a top-line midfielder or defender, um given the forwards are volatile. But if he's got the DPP available to him and can do anything, I reckon move Darcy on.
00:48:11
Holmesy
Yeah, I think he does because the options are Whitfield or Goulden. So if he's getting a defender or a midfielder from Darcy, then he clearly has the DPP available.
00:48:17
Sam
Yep. Yep.
00:48:20
Holmesy
Personally, myself, I think I would be holding Bergman, but I would be looking at team selection. If they do bring in a defender to replace Radigalia, I think that's a pretty clear indication that Bergman um will be staying in the midfield. But you do just have to have in the back of your mind that He is their Swiss Army knife.
00:48:37
Holmesy
They throw him around to plug holes and that's just a Bergman experience. But he does have the Eagles this week, um which is a pretty soft matchup. So personally, i would be trading out Darcy first as well.
00:48:48
Holmesy
I know he's been scoring pretty well, but um that that save on the weekend...
00:48:49
Sam
Yep. Hmm.
00:48:53
Holmesy
um was one of the ultimate kissings. He was always going to get going late, but the fact that Cherry went down meant that he got to ruck against Finbar Malley in that last quarter, and and he did get a couple of his goals while he was actually playing in the ruck.
00:48:56
Jon Harmey
Oh, yeah.
00:49:05
Holmesy
So he saved that. um We don't like having key forwards in AFL Fantasy because they are prone to a 40 or a 50. So um for Darcy, I think that's well and truly on the cards over the next couple of rounds. We did see him have a 56 the week before as well, so I'd be jumping ship there.
00:49:22
Holmesy
Harmi, this one is from Lauren. G'day, legends. Chera is traded out this week. Am I going to the top in the line, Goulden, or chasing the value in Merritt? Also, if Caldwell is named out, which is, do we tick off bringing in Merritt and McRae for him and Chera, netting some cash to ensure that he can get wit for Daniel next week? So do you tick off ah Caldwell and Chera for Merritt and McRae?
00:49:49
Jon Harmey
I do. Yeah, I guess I do. um
Dunkley's Role and Team Dynamics
00:49:53
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I don't feel like Chera is a must trade out though. Put it that way. But I do like Macrae and Merritt.
00:50:02
Holmesy
Yeah, I think they are good options. I suppose the question would be, if you're trading out two midfielders and bringing in a midfield and a forward, do you now have seven forwards?
00:50:05
Sam
um
00:50:11
Holmesy
um As then you're kind of comparing what Chera would be doing against your six forward, which is probably a ah Caleb Daniel, which means that probably the trade can be better used elsewhere,
00:50:23
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:50:23
Jon Harmey
Yeah. ah
00:50:25
Sam
Yeah, i was just going to add, we we haven't talked about Merritt too much on this pod. um So he's got Richmond next week. So he's probably going to score pretty well there.
00:50:37
Sam
But after that, he goes GWS, Bedford, Western Bulldogs, tough midfield matchup, Sydney, Jordan, Geelong, Mullen, St. Kilda, Windhaker, and then has Carlton in the last game of the round. So ah just i think the price is right for Merritt.
00:50:54
Sam
And I think you can go there, but I just want to flag that there if he plays midfield, there's potentially quite a few tags coming on the run home.
00:51:04
Holmesy
Yeah, you are right. I suppose hopefully by that stage maybe you've got the 23rd and you can do some looping, but GWS haven't been tagging as of late. um Maybe that changes for Essendon. I'm not too sure.
00:51:16
Holmesy
um The Sydney matchup will be brutal. We know that, but... I think with Caldwell now out and Parrish out as well, I don't think it's going to be a case of Merritt getting tagged. He'll go sit forward and be completely out of the game. I think it might be a little bit more of the old school Zach Merritt fight through the tag through the midfield and and sort of tackle his way to at least a 90-ish score. So I think the price is right for Merritt.
00:51:39
Holmesy
um I wouldn't be worried about the tags too much yet, but yeah, it would be remiss of us to not at least talk about the run, Sam. So well done on bringing that up. ah Sam, sticking with you, this one's from Taser.
00:51:52
Holmesy
What's up with Dunkley? Do we think it's a role change or just form? what do you What do you think for Taser?
00:51:59
Sam
um Yeah, I'm not sure. um i was actually talking about this with a friend who brought in Dunkley quite a while ago, so maybe kind of six or seven weeks ago, um and then traded him out at the bye.
00:52:12
Sam
I haven't been watching too many Brisbane games, but he certainly had um because he copped ah you know quite a few bad Dunkley scores. um And he was saying that you know it looks like he's playing a much more defensive role than usual.
00:52:26
Sam
um So ah ah clearly it's not a centre bounce role change. His CBA numbers are still right there. um Brisbane are still obviously playing well and they're still a high scoring fantasy team.
00:52:38
Sam
So ah personally would would put it down to form, but I haven't watched a great deal of Brisbane footy and I'd back him to bounce back. um But be keen to hear from you Harmi if you have watched some Brisbane games lately um and have it have a different view.
00:52:54
Jon Harmey
Different role, I reckon.
00:52:54
Holmesy
yeah.
00:52:55
Jon Harmey
Yeah, different role. um I don't think the ceiling is going to be there. He put up some really high scores early in the season, but I think it's been consistently lower for some time and I wouldn't be trading into it until you see some
Panel Banter and Reflections
00:53:10
Jon Harmey
level of change because right criedly um great great score build, but it's not happening at the moment.
00:53:12
Sam
yeah
00:53:18
Sam
And do we think that's because maybe Ashcroft, both Ashcrofts have picked up um a bit more of the transition scoring that maybe he might have got on the end of?
00:53:19
Holmesy
yeah
00:53:29
Holmesy
It's not just Ashcroft, Sam, but Hugh McCluggage also having a career year. um He's actually averaging 103.
00:53:34
Sam
yep
00:53:36
Holmesy
I think it you know comes down to ah a bit of a theory of mine that you know our top-end fantasy scorers, we don't want them from teams that are you know really hunting finals and and have a really strong midfield. So you look at Brisbane, they have their days, but they've got McCluggage, they've got Neil, they've got Dunkley, they've got Will Ashcroft, they've got other players that pop up.
00:53:58
Holmesy
And because of that, you know, you've seen it all year. Will Ashcroft's scores are up and down. Neal's are up and down depending on whether he gets tagged. You've got McCluggage that goes 150 on his day and then has 80s and 90s. And because they're hunting flags, they don't need someone like a you know, back in the day, a Rory Laird to go absolutely bonkers because he's the only one in there.
00:54:18
Holmesy
um Even a Frio at the moment, you've got Brayshaw, Sarong, Luke Jackson. Anytime they're spreading the load, I think it scores trouble for our our fantasy scores being consistent. So I think Dunkley is just happy to play his role, Harmy. and and And that just means he's not a ah real top-end premium for us this year.
00:54:36
Jon Harmey
yeah Yeah, well, I'm a bit confused, actually, though, mate. Now you say that, because you traded in Zach Merritt on the weekend, and you're saying that they are not hunting flags, the Bombers.
00:54:47
Holmesy
was wondering I was wondering where you were going with that. Well well done, Harmy. I suppose if they win their next 23 games straight, they might be looking for finals in 2026.
00:54:57
Jon Harmey
Got that bonus game against Gold Coast at the end as well. That could be it
00:55:00
Sam
Yeah, that's worth double points, isn't it?
00:55:02
Jon Harmey
Yeah, AFL's changing the rules.
00:55:03
Holmesy
Oh, yeah, is it? Yeah. last Last win in the regular season gets automatic entry to finals is what I've heard.
00:55:11
Holmesy
um Sam, you wanted this one on the run sheet, so I put it on there for you. So yeah go on, ask the question.
00:55:18
Sam
Yep, yep, sure. I'll throw this one to harm's Harmy.
Final Trade Advice and Episode Wrap-up
00:55:21
Sam
um How big is ah Holmesy's head after that huge score?
00:55:26
Jon Harmey
He's been playing it down all podcast, but you should see the messages that he's been punching out. Off the show. Off the show at the moment.
00:55:33
Sam
I thought I was the only one getting them. It's nice to hear that he's sending them far and wide.
00:55:38
Jon Harmey
Every half hour still for you as well.
00:55:40
Holmesy
Thank
00:55:40
Sam
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'd love to know if other friends of the show, Lemon, Vams, are also getting them. I'm sure he's sending them out there.
00:55:49
Holmesy
ah i don't think I don't think Vams is too happy with me. ah ah remember distinctly when it was the game that um Tristan Cherry went 150 against Richmond and I didn't have him and I went into Vams' DMs and I went, my season's over.
00:56:05
Holmesy
And I don't think he's been very happy with me since. So, and yeah.
00:56:11
Jon Harmey
You better fire through these quick quickly, Holmes.
00:56:11
Holmesy
Army.
00:56:14
Jon Harmey
You've got a few questions here. Let's just smash through
00:56:15
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah.
00:56:16
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:56:17
Holmesy
heads not Head's not big, but yeah, we're having a crack. Let's put it that way. ah Sam, this one's from Matt Masker. Who to trade first, Daniel Moore or Flanders?
00:56:26
Sam
ah Flanders, because you shouldn't have traded him in in the first place.
00:56:31
Jon Harmey
They're all trades.
00:56:32
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. Although I will say Dylan Moore, his big scores coincided with, what's his name, Warpool not being in the team, which meant Moore was up around the ball, Moore getting tackles.
00:56:43
Holmesy
I think for Hawks playing their best footy, Moore's a high half forward, which means his scores can be up and down. But yeah, I would agree there that Flanders is out first. Harmi, this one's for you.
00:56:53
Holmesy
Taste it. This one's from Fisher. Sarong has to go, doesn't he? He's worried about the tag. Does he go to Dacos or save a bit of coin and go Merritt or Bont?
00:57:02
Jon Harmey
um Yep, I like Dacos. We're probably in that order. Dacos, Merritt, and then Bond. um is he Does he have to go? No, I don't think he does. I think I'll probably hold.
00:57:16
Holmesy
Yeah, wouldn't think there's a tag against Hawks this week, but you do want to make sure you have a plan for when those tags do come. Sam, this one's from Dave. Does he pay up for Wang or go the value in Zach Merritt or Lockie Whitfield?
00:57:30
Sam
Yeah, tricky one. ah Pay up for Wang. You'll sleep easier.
00:57:34
Jon Harmey
Disagree. Don't pay up for him. Chancey gets tagged this week.
00:57:39
Sam
Fair call. Don't mind it.
00:57:42
Holmesy
I'll be the tiebreaker. ah Yeah, go the value. um But yeah, have plans to get him in at some stage soon. Harmi, this one's from Kaz. Hey, lads, who goes first out of Daniel, Warner, and Chera?
00:57:56
Holmesy
Considering I can get any midfielders for them. Also, who comes in out of Butters, Merritt, McRae, or Errol? So first off, who's out, Daniel, Warner, or Chera?
00:58:04
Jon Harmey
Out of those three, I'd trade Daniel first.
00:58:07
Holmesy
Agree with that. And then who comes in? Butters, Merritt, McRae or Errol? Rank those four.
00:58:13
Jon Harmey
It depends how much money you've got.
00:58:17
Jon Harmey
If it were me and money wasn't ah an issue, probably Errol. Butters has got West Coast. Maybe Butters merit McRae.
00:58:27
Holmesy
Sam, have a different list? A different order, sorry.
00:58:31
Sam
ah Not necessarily. I'd just have McRae higher because he's forward eligible and presuming that's... I'm not quite sure how his trades are working here, but yeah, I mean, if McRae's playing in your forward line, I think he offers better value at his price and filling a forward position.
00:58:48
Holmesy
Beautiful. Sam, staying with you. This one's from Sean and it's a bit different. So who goes first this week out of Dale, Doc and Sinclair? So Doc now with DPP.
00:58:58
Sam
Hmm. Hmm.
00:58:59
Holmesy
You can throw him into defense.
00:59:00
Holmesy
Who goes first?
00:59:02
Sam
Yeah, I was actually wanted to ask you, Boyce, what you thought about Dale. I'm not an owner, but I'd be interested to know what owners are doing with him. um I think if you owned Dale, you kind of knew going into it, you had to prepare for a bit of a roller coaster because we've seen this guy go 50, 150.
00:59:20
Sam
I'd be holding Dale um close enough to the top six. Doc or Sinclair... Oh, Doc's a tough one as well. Again, he had a few moments on the weekend where he let himself down. ah i think he's probably not long for the Carlton squad.
00:59:35
Holmesy
Thank
00:59:36
Sam
um I think if you've had Doc for this amount of time, be happy with what he's done. I'd be moving him on. I'd be moving Doc on and I'd be bringing in Merritt or Goulden out of those two, depending on your cash.
00:59:49
Jon Harmey
Chancey gets dropped. Chance Doherty gets dropped.
00:59:51
Sam
Yeah.
00:59:52
Jon Harmey
They've been hopeless.
00:59:52
Sam
Yeah.
00:59:53
Jon Harmey
um Yeah, I'll be holding Sinclair's and they're all similar price. So it's just out of Baylor Dale and Doherty as to who you want to trade out. And yeah, um yeah look, i'd I'd be tempted to go Whitfield
01:00:04
Sam
I think you've done
01:00:04
Holmesy
Yep.
01:00:07
Sam
yeah i think you've done well out of Doc if you've brought him in and and got these you know the scoring that you've got out of him for the last few weeks. So I'd be happy to move him on.
01:00:18
Holmesy
Yep. Agree with that. Harmi, last one for you and and you're able to do this having been on the pod pod for a long time. So I want an old school Stato stamp of approval from Tom DT.
01:00:29
Holmesy
Thoughts on Stewart and Sinclair to McKercher and Butters.
01:00:34
Jon Harmey
Stuart and Sinclair to McKercher and Butters. Oh, well, look, based on current form, you'd have to say that McKercher and Butters are both upgrades um from Stuart and Sinclair.
01:00:47
Jon Harmey
Stuart, I'm probably a little bit scarred because he ruined my season repeatedly. um so So, yeah, le are happy I'd be happy enough with those trades.
01:00:59
Holmesy
Yep, you you have missed a little bit on Mekircha. And he did play forward in that last quarter, but it did seem that he was, they they showed they showed him on the bench. He was on the bike. I think he was probably just tiring in that game. And and that was a way to get him through.
01:01:12
Holmesy
um As long as he stays in that role, I think he's still got value, Sam.
01:01:16
Sam
Yeah, just wanted to finish, before we finish the podcast, how do you feel about Mills and McKercher now, you two? Would you be, is if you had one or neither of them, would you be looking at bringing one of them in, um priced 8.13 and respectively, i think?
01:01:37
Jon Harmey
Yeah, that's why I asked Holmesy before about Sydney because Mills, he's come off 100, priced at 8.16. There's a possibility that he's still a good trading.
01:01:52
Sam
Yep, and had at for the first time had more most of the kick-ins on the weekend.
01:01:53
Holmesy
Yeah.
01:01:56
Sam
He had seven to Blakey's four, and Roberts moved much higher up the ground.
01:02:02
Jon Harmey
But yeah, Roberts was much lower down the ground sitting on the bench as the sub to start the game.
01:02:09
Sam
Oh, was he?
01:02:09
Jon Harmey
So yeah, he was a sub.
01:02:10
Holmesy
Give a sub bite.
01:02:11
Sam
Sorry, finally watch I only watched the second half of the Dockers-Sydney so I didn't know he started on the bench.
01:02:12
Holmesy
Hold on, Sam.
01:02:16
Jon Harmey
And Braden Campbell's doing a forward, like Braden Campbell's doing a tag. Yeah, I don't know. I think that he really is Mills in that back line.
01:02:27
Holmesy
Yeah, no, I think he is actually a good option, Harmi. um I don't think you're going to get the big ceiling scores out of him anymore. But if you are looking for someone that can maybe average that 90 to 95 and be sort of close enough while you you build your cash to get him up to your Zorkos and Whitfields and all that, then yeah, I think...
01:02:43
Holmesy
He is definitely a play. And who does Sydney have this week? They have St Kilda. So there is going to be lots of free ball on offer there. Boys, that's going to wrap us up. Harmy, Sam, thanks for jumping on. Apologies, we lost Louis mid-pod, ah but he'll be back next week.
01:03:00
Holmesy
Make sure you're following us on X at PodPod AFL and make sure you're subscribed on so Spotify or Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your content. We'll be back next week. Hopefully my head is a little bit bigger than what it is now and I'm a little bit closer to that Hilux army. But until then, have a good week and we will speak to you soon.