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Leslie Chats with Amit Mor on Israel’s Energy Security in Wartime, Hormuz, and the Future of Regional Corridors
110 Plays10 days ago
What happens to a country’s energy system when war reaches its offshore gas fields?
In this episode of Energy Vista, Leslie Palti-Guzman sits down with Dr. Amit Mor, CEO of EcoEnergy and Senior Lecturer at Reichman University, to examine how Israel’s energy system is operating under wartime, the implications for Jordan and Egypt’s electricity systems, and the broader risks to global energy markets as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz.
They also discuss how energy infrastructure, maritime chokepoints, and geopolitical rivalries are increasingly intertwined in today’s energy landscape.
The episode highlights a core theme of Energy Vista: energy security is national security.
Key topics discussed
• How Israel maintains electricity supply despite the shutdown of major gas platforms
• Israel’s regional gas integration with Jordan and Egypt
• The geopolitical implications of attacks on energy infrastructure
• Iran’s weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz
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Transcript
Introduction to Energy Vista and Guest
00:00:04
lpaltiguzman
Welcome to Energy Vista, a podcast on energy issues where we make experts great again and contribute actively to the public debate on policymaking and policymaking around commodities, the geopolitics of energy and trade. I'm your host, Leslie Paltier-Guzman.
00:00:24
lpaltiguzman
It's March 12, 2026, and time for a new Energy Vista episode. Today, my guest is Dr. Amit Moore. He is CEO of EcoEnergy, a strategic consultancy, and a senior lecturer at Reishman University in Israel.
00:00:43
lpaltiguzman
We're going to discuss a very timely ah topic around Israel's energy security, regional energy cooperation, war infrastructure risks,
00:00:54
lpaltiguzman
the threat of Hormuz closure and long-term outlook for oil and gas investments in the region. Hi, Amit.
00:01:02
Amit Mor
Hi, Leslie. Thank you for having me.
00:01:04
lpaltiguzman
No, thank you for making it happen. I know it's very intense right now in Israel. You're receiving a lot of missiles, rockets from the north, from Hezbollah, missiles from Iran. it's We're into the 13 days of the war.
00:01:20
lpaltiguzman
um So thank you for making it happen. And I know we may get disconnected in the events of Syrians, but safety first. um So following the preventive attacks from Israel and the US on Iran against Iran on February 28, we've seen that um critical energy infrastructures have been hit in the region.
00:01:47
lpaltiguzman
And last summer, when there was already a war between Israel and Iran, and then the the US joined also to remove the threat of nuclear facilities from Iran, and there was the Leviathan gas field that shut down out of precaution.
00:02:09
lpaltiguzman
And this time ah also it happens, the Leviathan gas field shut down, I believe Karish also.
Israel's Energy Security in Wartime
00:02:18
lpaltiguzman
And can you give us, um can you tell us right now, how is Israel handling its ener energy security during a time of war?
00:02:29
Amit Mor
Yes. So as you said correctly, Leslie, it's very important to understand that 75% of the electricity these days in Israel is generated from natural gas, which is being generated in three and produced in three fields offshore Israel.
00:02:51
Amit Mor
That's a Leviathan gas field, a very large gas field, the largest in the in the Mediterranean. which most of its gas is exported to Egypt jordan and The Karish field, the smaller Karish field, which all its gas is domestically a consumed. And the Tamar field, which produces gas both for domestic consumption and for export, to especially to Egypt.
00:03:16
Amit Mor
So for precautious reasons, the as in the 12 days the war and last June, the government ministry of defense ordered Chevron, which is the operator of Leviathan, and Energean, the Greek-British company, which is the operator of Karish, to shut down and the production platforms.
00:03:38
Amit Mor
And this is...
00:03:38
lpaltiguzman
And this is out of precaution in the event the field would be hit by missile.
00:03:45
Amit Mor
Exactly. The Karish platform, it's an FPSO, a production storage and offload a vessel anchored 80 kilometers offshore in the Mediterranean.
00:03:58
Amit Mor
And the Leviathan platform is located 10 kilometers offshore the Mediterranean. Middle East between Tel Aviv and Haifa. And the reason for shutdown of those two production facilities is to protect both the employees, more than 100 employees, which is working on the FPSO of Nigerian and the platform of Chevron. And also in a way to protect the platforms themselves, because once a missile hit a platform while it is
00:04:30
Amit Mor
and treating a natural gas, and the damage might be much greater than if a missile hits a platform ah while it is not operating in such such a um a damage can be either from total loss, which is years to rebuild and billions of dollars to partial loss.
00:04:55
Amit Mor
So that's the reason why the government for the third third time, and in fact, all the shutdown of platforms, first time was two and a half years ago when the gas the the war began in Gaza, then the Tamar platform, which is close to Gaza, Southern Israel was shut down for about a month.
00:04:56
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm.
00:05:17
Amit Mor
So basically, Israel does not suffer from a lack of electricity and no shortage of electricity because first, the coal plants, is Israel has two coal plants.
00:05:32
Amit Mor
Until 20
Regional Energy Impacts of the War
00:05:33
Amit Mor
years ago, they produced 80% of the electricity in Israel.
00:05:37
Amit Mor
These days, they
00:05:37
lpaltiguzman
And I think i think those cold plants were supposed to be closed, actually.
00:05:42
Amit Mor
are
00:05:42
lpaltiguzman
and
00:05:43
lpaltiguzman
But it's even better it's it's even better for security of supply to have this diversification.
00:05:44
Amit Mor
Yes, they are converted to gas. nothing Exactly. they they They are now dual-fueled. At least the plant in Ashkelon and the plant in Hedera is in the process of conversion to gas.
00:05:55
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm.
00:05:59
Amit Mor
And they maintain dual fuel exactly for such energy security reasons, for such a time, And those plants are working full capacity on coal these days.
00:06:10
Amit Mor
And also all the gas turbines, combined cycle a gas turbines, are either on gas from Tamar when available, and also on the backup fuel, which is diesel.
00:06:25
Amit Mor
Gas oil, diesel, this is a backup fuel.
00:06:26
lpaltiguzman
Right.
00:06:29
Amit Mor
And since the past... This is the 13th day of the war. Already more than 100,000 tons of diesel was burning these power plants to produce electricity. and So Israel maintains the strategic reserves of diesel, gas oil, for a emergency cases to back up natural gas exactly for such occurrences.
00:06:56
Amit Mor
So Captain,
00:06:56
lpaltiguzman
and i And I guess that you know people are using, i mean, they are more at home, but they are using less their car, or they are changing that kind of consumption of electricity and energy during wartime.
00:07:08
Amit Mor
Yeah, so I would say, yeah first, we are already in the spring in Israel. So it's not peak demand at times for electricity. Secondly, most of the populations are at home. and So I think generally the consumption of electricity is lower than usual. So Israel, in this respect, is well prepared. Of course, and no one can guarantee the IDF, which intercepts
00:07:43
Amit Mor
I think we'll get a statistically 90 or 95% of the missiles. Also in the last war, no strategic energy and facility like power plant was damaged, except the oil refinery, the larger refinery in Israel.
00:08:02
Amit Mor
Haifa, it was damaged in the former war and went out of order for a couple of months. Now it is producing
00:08:09
lpaltiguzman
And of course, there is a war of disinformation going on too. I think I read somewhere that maybe this time also it was hit, the Haifa refinery.
00:08:18
Amit Mor
No, it was not here this time. a date It is producing and jet fuel, this is kerosene for the Air Force, diesel and so on. It is working in the emergency conditions and because it is close to the northern northern border with Lebanon.
00:08:36
Amit Mor
So um Israel is well supplied these days. Also ah imports of a distillates and crude is more problematic because international marine transportation is limited.
00:08:51
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. Yeah.
00:08:51
Amit Mor
But they I believe that the if we need for another few weeks to rely on the production of the local refineries and the and reserves, we are fine.
00:09:04
Amit Mor
The party which is suffered the most is is Jordan, because Jordan imports a gas from a the Leviathan field, which is shut down.
00:09:04
lpaltiguzman
yep
00:09:17
Amit Mor
And again, about 75% of the electricity in Jordan is based is based on gas from Israel, from the Leviathan field. So we already evidently major power shortage in in Amman in and in Jordan.
00:09:35
Amit Mor
Also, it should be noted that 15% of the gas can consumption consumption in Egypt is a being imported from Israel, from the Levitan field, and also from the Tamar field.
00:09:46
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm. Yeah. Mm-hmm. yeah
00:09:48
Amit Mor
So also Egypt needs to divert gas from industry to power generation. So what we we know and we... and We learned that also in the last war in with Iran, last June, is ah that with with a dependency or being a major supplier, regional supplier, in this case of natural gas, comes responsibility.
00:10:14
Amit Mor
That is, the energy planner or the government of Israel doesn't need to look only on the supply of gas or alternative fuel electricity to the Israeli public, We need also to think about, especially Jordanians, Egyptian...
00:10:29
lpaltiguzman
So it's ah you know it's interesting because when you look at what's happening for Qatar, for example, which is a large supplier globally, they decided to declare force majeure. And then as a result, some of their customers, like Shell, also declared force majeure for their end users.
00:10:46
lpaltiguzman
It didn't happen, i guess, from Chevron or from the Israeli companies involved in the gas field, correct? Yes.
00:10:52
Amit Mor
Well, there is a clause of force majeure, and that's the reason which allows the supplier, Chevron, it's not Israel. kind These are the private companies, Chevron, in the case of Levitan and Tamar, and their partners. They are the suppliers. So there is a force majeure clause. But a in addition to the, the a I think, it's my thinking,
00:11:17
Amit Mor
that with this dependency, which is what established of Jordan and Egypt comes responsibility of Israel. Now, we have to monitor very, very quickly, very, very closely the the power cuts in Amman and in Jordan, because once you have long term power shortage, it can end it.
00:11:42
Amit Mor
in other places in the world, creates a civil unrest
Enhancing Energy Security
00:11:47
Amit Mor
demonstration it against the regime.
00:11:47
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:11:49
Amit Mor
And if and this war continues, which I don't think it will, we can discuss it. I think the war is close to to its end.
00:12:00
Amit Mor
and Mr. Trump is is close to declare victory and so on. Let's discuss it in a few minutes. But if the war continues, so just to maintain...
00:12:11
Amit Mor
the the regime, the Hashemite kingdomship in Jordan, and not to allow civil unrest and protest against the government, Israel might need to invite to divert some quantities of gas to Jordan to allow some some supply of gas and generation of electricity just to maintain the stability of the regime.
00:12:34
lpaltiguzman
Some relief, yeah. What about...
00:12:39
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:12:39
Amit Mor
And nobody thought about it here, but now it is a it might happen.
00:12:39
lpaltiguzman
What about...
00:12:44
Amit Mor
So we'll need to burn more backup fuel and even to maintain some, you know, rolling over one or two hours of power cuts of some neighbors in Israel to allow supply of gas.
00:12:57
lpaltiguzman
Yeah, very interesting.
00:12:58
Amit Mor
It
00:12:58
lpaltiguzman
I mean, this solidarity is very interesting, this cooperation. think last summer, Israel was also able to send extra solar electricity that they produce to Jordan, correct?
00:13:12
Amit Mor
So ah not exactly, it was the same problem. But again, we are the 12 days to 13 days. If the week continues for another week, so at least I suggested to the Israeli government, the plan B in the form that just ah presented, that we'll need to supply so ah Jordan because Jordan is 75% this in some period. relying on gas for power generation, and they have 25% renewable energy, especially solar and wind.
00:13:42
Amit Mor
So less solar in this period than in the summer because of the solar radiation, more wind. And they don't have a reserves like of gas oil in the back of fuel like in Israel.
00:13:57
Amit Mor
so
00:13:57
lpaltiguzman
So actually, Amit, you've been thinking about ah ways to improve Israel's energy security, but also regional cooperation with its neighbors. And I saw that you wrote about an idea, which is to create strategic petroleum reserves. We've seen that the International Energy Agency and the G7 just agreed on putting together major release of their strategic petroleum reserves with the U.S. contributing the most.
00:14:26
lpaltiguzman
How do you think it such a thing could work? And I don't know if you're thinking about cooperation between Israel Jordan and Egypt.
00:14:34
Amit Mor
Not necessarily regional SPR, strategic petroleum reserves, but each country, especially Jordan and Egypt. And this is very costly to hold those reserves. And poor countries like Jordan and Egypt, usually the last thing they they invest in is is strategic reserves of petroleum and dead derivatives. But for Israel, for example, and for many other nations, this is a must.
00:14:58
Amit Mor
Second very important lessons that we learned since the war in a Ukraine, in the wars in Egypt, in the the Middle East in the past two and a half years, in Israel and Iran, that Israel needs, also Jordan and Egypt, a what we call strategic and operational a reserves, onshore storage, a reserve of natural gas, like in America, like in Russia, Europe, Japan, men many other countries.
00:15:21
lpaltiguzman
But does, I mean, Israel is such a small country. Do you do you have the geology?
00:15:27
Amit Mor
Yes, so they the... Geological Institute made a survey located several places in Israel where the underground aquifers and also we have what we call salt rock in in near are the Dead Sea, its dome, so in salt caverns and so on and so forth. So this is a must you know for a country which relies 70%, 75% will go up until a generation on on a based on gas, and that's for decades to come.
00:16:05
Amit Mor
Even we don't have our own reserves of gas, we'll continue to import gas probably in 20, 25 years.
00:16:06
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:16:11
Amit Mor
So this is a master's. That's a very more a relevant lesson, an important lesson. And the last most important lesson in all the world we are learning is that a a distributed electricity sources, that has that is renewable energy sources,
00:16:29
Amit Mor
like wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, and in Israeli case, it's ah almost all about solar energy because the wind potential is very low.
00:16:37
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm.
00:16:39
Amit Mor
This is energy security, which is national security. Distributed energy, and you have thousands and thousands of small and large production sources like panels, solar panels, PV, photovoltaic panels with energy storage.
00:16:57
Amit Mor
batteries storage in small scale at household or in very large scale like storage farms lithium-ion batteries and in the future it will be sodium ion and other materials so this is so important renewable energy not just only for environmental reasons but also tend to enhance energy security and in this respect
00:17:18
lpaltiguzman
Yeah, for strategic economy, yeah.
00:17:21
Amit Mor
Exactly. And here we should learn from the Gazans. The people of Gaza, before the war, the 6th of October, and I ran the calculation, got all the information, 55% of their electricity was generated from solar panels, and even a few cheese caps and so on and so forth, plus batteries. So they don't have a even auto.
00:17:47
Amit Mor
auto batteries, which are $100 per battery and not so expensive like lithium-ion batteries. So if they have an array of four or five batteries plus a solar panel on the rooftop.
00:17:58
Amit Mor
So they have enough electricity for the refrigerator, for lighting and for their
00:18:07
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:18:08
Amit Mor
solar mobile phones. So this is a most important lesson for all the world. And that's the direction in which the world is going.
00:18:17
lpaltiguzman
Yeah, very interesting. and Is it realistic to talk about small-scale nuclear reactors for power generation in Israel? I heard that some ah tech companies that are implanted in Israel, Google and others, are thinking ahead of time with the growth of electricity demand, potentially, because of data centers and AI. Do you think it's even realistic? I mean, I see it that potentially also um a strategic risk because it's it's nuclear and it can be, you know, there could be strike on those facilities.
00:18:53
Amit Mor
Exactly, so yeah you are the nose in this ah respect.
Israel's Growing Electricity Demand
00:18:57
Amit Mor
We are a great promoter of nuclear energy in Israel. The problem is both large-scale nuclear plants and also SMR, small modular reactors, which is on the verge of becoming in the world financially available. The technology is developing, as you know, very well now. So we're looking for many years, a very ah
00:19:27
Amit Mor
intensly on that The problem of Israel, as since Israel for known reason is not a signatory on the NPT, Non-Proliferation Treaty, and so it is not a Israel cannot purchase technology.
00:19:44
Amit Mor
That is, Israel cannot purchase who atomic technology atomic plant technology from any country. That's ah one of the rules of the game. Any country which is allowed to purchase has to sign the non-proliferation treaty. So um I approached Prime Minister Netanyahu several times already. Now that we we have a a good friend at the White House, Mr. Trump, I suggest that Israel approach Mr. Trump, the American administration. And since there is a precedent that President Bush, the son, about 20, 25 years ago, enabled India to purchase a nuclear power plants, technology from Westinghouse, American companies, regardless of the fact that they are not a signature to the NPT. So since there is such a precedent, so Mr. Trump, American administration possibly can allow Israel to purchase American technology to implement it here.
00:20:50
Amit Mor
because otherwise we cannot, Israel cannot develop. There are some startups which are working on SMRs and even more, there is a major fantastic startup, NTTAO, which is working and is very close to develop and small-sca a scale fusion technology.
00:20:57
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:21:11
Amit Mor
It's a small scale, about 20 megawatts, a small power plant of a fusion technology hopefully in four five years So here it's going to be an Israel technology. I don't think we'll have a problem to implement it, but still we'll need to see that it is it will be commercialized.
00:21:27
Amit Mor
That's the holy grail of the energy and and the power put that hopefully in the future will have it.
00:21:34
lpaltiguzman
Actually, can you tell us, um because, i mean, Israel has been, those so has not have not been normal years, like since 2023, because of the war.
00:21:46
lpaltiguzman
So does like the electricity demand in Israel is growing? Or how is the electricity, and like the growth, like the outlook for electricity to demand in Israel?
00:21:55
Amit Mor
The electricity demand is growing at a very high growth rate of about 3%, going to increase to 4% annual demand, especially, as you mentioned, with AI, with data centers. Now, many international companies and domestic entrepreneur entrepreneurs are they a developing data centers in Israel. for several reasons. First, the electricity is very, very cheap, among the cheapest in the world, in in the in the Western world, even more cheap, even cheaper than most of the states in America, because we have very cheap gas.
00:22:32
Amit Mor
And since most of the electricity is produced from gas, natural gas, so we have cheap electricity. So international companies like Google and others, Nvidia, they wish to develop a and um
00:22:45
lpaltiguzman
Thank you.
00:22:47
Amit Mor
what you call the data centers here. Now, data center is ah it's a real estate, and especially you know full of servers. And it needs huge amounts of electricity, like ah just to generate a medium-sized data centers. It's like to supply electricity for a town of about 100,000 people. so So basically, I urge the Israeli government to think again about that, because basically what we are doing, we are exporting very cheap electricity. We are depleting our natural gas resource reserves much quicker to supply
00:23:27
Amit Mor
the world with data set center services. Of course, we need data services for our own needs, for the government, for the, defense industry, for the high-tech industry, for the academia and so on, the R&D and so on and so forth.
00:23:44
Amit Mor
But ESA does not need to basically export cheap electricity and deplete its own natural gas resources or devote renewable energy resources just to satisfy the international demand for data centers.
00:24:00
Amit Mor
So
00:24:01
lpaltiguzman
And actually, it's it's a very controversial debate in Israel, like how to use the reserves, ah domestic market versus export market, the price at home of electricity. It's very heated as a debate.
00:24:15
Amit Mor
Exactly. So basically, Israel is producing about 28, will increase to about 30 BCMs per annum. About half of that is consumed locally, and the rest is exported. And in four years' time, with the second phase of Leviathan is going to be completed, we' are going to produce about 40 BCM. per annum and export two-thirds of that. Now, the reserves of Israel is about 1,000 BCM, proven reserves, and likelihood of additional large discoveries is doubtful, probably limited. and Most of geologists and geophysicists claim that the largest in
00:24:59
Amit Mor
gas reserves were already found. So um and the in 20 years' time, and even before, we are going to deplete our natural gas in 2025 years. But we'll start, unless we have major discoveries, Israel will need to start a importing gas, I think, by 2035 to 2037. So a huge
00:25:25
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:25:26
Amit Mor
um the government alsoized a huge a $35 billion dollars and gas export deal from Leviathan to Egypt just ah two
Regional Energy Conflicts and Dynamics
00:25:38
Amit Mor
months ago. and it's ah for about 110 BCM. And I believe that's the last large export the deal that Israel will do with its neighbors.
00:25:54
lpaltiguzman
Okay, very interesting.
00:25:54
Amit Mor
names
00:25:56
lpaltiguzman
So let's move to the health of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. um So very few tankers right now are going through, some are being hit. um Secretary of Energy Chris Wright in the US announced today actually that um US naval escort could start at the end of the month, so in a little bit more than two weeks from now.
00:26:24
lpaltiguzman
um What do you think about this signal in terms of um pressure that it puts on oil prices and domestic opinion in the Gulf, in in the East Med, and in the US specifically? I think you you mentioned that the fate of the war is determined by the price of the American pump.
00:26:50
lpaltiguzman
At the same time, ah all the comments from President Trump
00:26:56
lpaltiguzman
are going into the direction of you know, we don't want to do half job, we want to finish this war, and um we want to make sure Iran is no longer a threat.
00:27:08
Amit Mor
Yes, indeed. I stress and believe that the the price of the barrel will bring a close a end to this war because of the pressure and the, I would say in many respects, the anger of the American public.
00:27:27
Amit Mor
As you know very well, and I lived many years in the United States, people are very sensitive to the price of gasoline and the pump and war with
00:27:36
lpaltiguzman
Especially during a midterm season, like for the next election, yeah.
00:27:40
Amit Mor
Exactly. And the midterm ah elections are in six, seven months time. And they when the price before the war, just 12 days, 13 days ago, was about two years average in America, two and a half dollars per per gallon. And now it's it's close to four dollars per butlo gallon. And price of just check the Brent or WTI is close to $100 already on Monday. It was a kind of a phenomenal, unprecedented day in which prices increased from $83 last Friday, opening of the,
00:28:16
Amit Mor
of the mercantile exchanges, the trade of oil, it jumped to $115. And then with Mr. Trump's ah announcement in the afternoon that the war is going to over be over soon, it went down back to $85.
00:28:31
Amit Mor
eighty five dollars And now it's close to $100 per barrel today. So I think that the internal pressure and Domestic pressure on on Mr.
00:28:36
lpaltiguzman
Exactly, yeah.
00:28:42
Amit Mor
Trump, and he's very, very sensitive to the price of oil. So he can say only once and he utilized this tool to announce that the war is going to be over soon.
00:28:54
Amit Mor
Second tool ah means, is indeed, as you mentioned, the release upcoming release of about 400 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserves of the US, $240 million barrels, an additional 160 million barrels from the other OECD European other countries in the past in the next few months, a few weeks, to compensate for the lost about 20 million barrels per day, about 20% of the world consumption.
00:29:26
Amit Mor
which is stuck in the Gulf, off um in the Strait of Hormuz. So I think that mr Trump will willll end the war soon, possibly in a week time, because especially because of this economic reason.
00:29:45
Amit Mor
and we start to see inflation inflationary pressures building up in them in America and elsewhere, calls to halt the reduction in the interest rates or increase in interest rate and and the fear from basically inflation ah plus, a and which is thela stagnation, economic stagnation.
00:30:11
Amit Mor
so
00:30:12
lpaltiguzman
But I mean, wouldn't it and make Iran a winner in a way because they are using the Strait of Hormuz to inflict this economic and psychologicalological psychological damage right to the US and the rest of the world. They are doing it on purpose, hitting the tankers.
00:30:32
lpaltiguzman
So wouldn't it make them stronger with their ability to restrain flow around the Strait of Hormuz?
00:30:40
Amit Mor
Well, that's, as you you say correctly, that's a major weapon. In addition to to to st striking missiles and all the surrounding neighbors, including infrastructure, oil infrastructure, gas infrastructure, energy in Qatar, even a water desalination plants and so on and so forth, the fact that they are controlling the Strait of Hormuz But the oil tankers which that are passing are Iranian oil tankers, which are serving, supplying oil to China, especially.
00:31:17
lpaltiguzman
China.
00:31:20
Amit Mor
And they continue to pass through the Homo Strait. So that's a great, ah a major, I would say, yeah achievement of the Iranian.
00:31:31
Amit Mor
And the fact that they, in Texas,
00:31:34
lpaltiguzman
I see it as a major problem for the West because it it's a lack of deterrence and and it would be the second major strategic maritime corridor that anti-Western rogue state countries like Iran,
00:31:52
lpaltiguzman
Russia, um Venezuela used to to use. like So we have the Strait of Hormuz, but we have also the Red Sea, right which have ah basically evicted Western assets, naval assets and commercial shipments, um and all contributing to China, basically, benefiting China.
00:32:18
Amit Mor
Exactly.
00:32:18
Amit Mor
As you say, both Venezuela and Iran, Venezuela, okay, in the past already, since the change in regime, they're a takeover of the United States.
00:32:18
lpaltiguzman
hope
00:32:28
Amit Mor
and In a way, so ah oil was diverted to, was sent ship to China and reduced prices, and also from Iran. And Iran, if they continue.
00:32:39
Amit Mor
So this respect, Iran, as as was reported this morning, and Today, Iran increased significantly its export of oil from 1.5 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day to China, although in alleviated, of course, say prices, well, discounted prices.
00:32:58
lpaltiguzman
So
00:33:04
Amit Mor
So a unless the U.S. army will manage to maintain safe passage of oil and LNG from the Gulf.
00:33:15
Amit Mor
Right now there are about 200 tankers and ships which are waiting two sides of the strait. The strait is actually shut down.
00:33:23
lpaltiguzman
so So let me let me get it straight. straight Iran is able to increase its energy revenues on oil exports heading to China.
00:33:36
lpaltiguzman
And neither the US or Israel is targeting those tankers because there is crew members on it, but probably also because they don't want to antagonize China when it's this oil.
00:33:52
lpaltiguzman
ah But the IRGC is still in control of oil exports. and on the other side, IRGC and their army are targeting ah Western tankers and cargoes and civilians, since they are attacking the crews at the same time, and they are using drones and they are using unmanned boats and mines, potentially. So it's it looks like a very asymmetrical energy war game right now.
00:34:30
Amit Mor
Absolutely. The United States and Israel de facto decided not to target Iranian oil and gas facilities.
00:34:42
Amit Mor
It is very easy, very, very easy to shut down the export of oil. from Iran just target the island of Hajj. 90% of the export of oil is done through this say island, which is located in the northwest part of the Persian Gulf.
00:35:05
Amit Mor
m But and both the United States and Israel were thinking on Iran after the war. So because if we damage the oil facilities, It's going to be a damage for a year time to go. And we are thinking about Iran a m for the future.
00:35:24
Amit Mor
um and maybe maybe I don't think so, but if this war continues, maybe there's there going to be possibility just to hit a some bottlenecks in the Harj Island, which will not ah sabotage or of damage because total damage to their export ah ability, but just to enable a stoppage of the oil export.
00:35:24
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. yep
00:35:52
Amit Mor
That would be enough. Because right now, it's a paradox. They are halting 20% of the oil and about 20% of the energy to the world and as well.
00:36:02
Amit Mor
And they continue to export oil, and in fact, increasing their export and to China, which enjoys ah that fact.
00:36:07
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:36:10
lpaltiguzman
Do you think China would have enough incentives to tell Iran, okay, stop it now, you need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
00:36:20
Amit Mor
The question is who can influence the current regime in a in Iran? So as we understand, Mujtaba, the son of Haminaei, Mujtaba Khamenei, is now in power.
00:36:34
Amit Mor
We didn't see him yet. We m just said exactly, announced, released an announcement.
00:36:39
lpaltiguzman
we only heard it We only heard him today.
00:36:44
Amit Mor
He is a It's still is' still a question mark. Is he going to be a pragmatical leader? Because I don't see a regime say change as soon, as many people ah thought that Israeli and the American m airplanes and attack can bring a a regime change or enable the condition for the local population to rebel.
00:37:13
Amit Mor
I really doubt it would happen. So we need to continue most likely a to live with this a regime, which as we understand, they are a wounded they like a wounded lion right now.
00:37:30
Amit Mor
They didn't change their long-term perception and I think ambitions to gain nuclear weapons. like North Korea, once they possess nuclear weapon, nobody could touch them. And I think they'll continue to and to have these ambitions as as as well as long as there are 440 kilograms of enriched the uranium is still there and was not captured. And as we understand, was not damaged.
00:38:04
Amit Mor
in two locations, both in a town, which was hit by the Israelis and the Americans eight months ago, but also in Yisphahan, as a a in the head of the AIEA announced.
00:38:21
Amit Mor
So as long as they have this enriched uranium, so I think if there where the war will end with this, so I believe that in a few months or few years time, we'll need another operation because they they this fundamentalistic regime has a long vision, a long time vision.
00:38:39
lpaltiguzman
No.
00:38:48
Amit Mor
They have ah they don't see the objective is not a year or two years, it's decades to come. And they unfortunately,
00:38:59
Amit Mor
i will I think that a this war, as mentioned, is going to be
Future Energy Alliances and Economic Impacts
00:39:04
Amit Mor
over soon. Mr. Trump began the war. He will announce major victory. He and Netanyahu will announce major victory ah and so and so. and And we might need to go to another campaign in the future, unfortunately.
00:39:23
lpaltiguzman
So you seem a bit pessimistic on the outcome of the war in terms of regime change, but do you still see potential opportunities regarding new energy alliances in the region or new energy corridors?
00:39:36
lpaltiguzman
and what How do you think the war is going to impact the regional trade flows?
00:39:42
Amit Mor
Well, I think that the first, and this war put say and most of the Gulf countries, the same camp with israel with the the United States and Israel.
00:39:56
Amit Mor
So I think that in terms of regional
00:39:57
lpaltiguzman
Yeah, maybe, but at the same time, they only took defensive approach so far, not offensive. And they are still hedging, i think, to to see what's who is coming next to head Iran.
00:40:12
lpaltiguzman
If it's coming from the IRGC, if something else, I think they're are still hedging it.
00:40:13
Amit Mor
Yeah,
00:40:19
Amit Mor
yeah I agree with you. and So I hope that Mr. Trump, after this war is over, will promote the IMEC, the India, Middle East, Europe europepe and transportation channel, which This initiative is ah was launched several years ago, the Biden administration, that is around the hauling of cargoes from Iran via ship to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which trains the ports in the Mediterranean, Israel, possibly in Syria, to Europe. and also possibly in the future, a hydrogen pipeline, and possibly in the future, production of green energy, that is solar energy and and wind energy in Saudi, Jordan, Syria, and so on, with the and submarine a electricity line of DC to Europe, and so on and so forth. So um I truly hope that ah at least ah such an initiative
00:41:23
Amit Mor
which is a long, long shot. It can take a take decade or two decades, could emerge after the war with such a very good, excellent relations between Israel and India.
00:41:36
Amit Mor
And the Prime Minister of India just visited Israel two days before the war began, end of February, Mr. Modi. And I truly hope that such regional cooperation, especially in renewable energy,
00:41:36
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm.
00:41:53
Amit Mor
In the future, hydrogen production and transportation a could emerge. And for the Iranian people, well, I truly hope that if in the future there is a pragmatic leadership there, you know, they have not only oil and gas They have also a lot of minerals, a rare minerals, rare metals.
00:42:21
Amit Mor
they um They can attract so many investments.
00:42:26
lpaltiguzman
Investments.
00:42:26
Amit Mor
They are such a a skilled people, excellent academia, excellent research and development there. and so on so forth so it's such a loss that such a rich country in terms of human capital and of course of minerals oil gas uh rare minerals and so on and so forth which are so needed especially for the energy transition and electric transportation and so on would be in such a miserable economic situation because the economic crisis just intensified via this wall.
00:43:05
Amit Mor
There is such a huge crisis, a major devaluation of the currency, a lack
Conclusion and Farewell
00:43:12
Amit Mor
of yeah lowage shortage, electricity shortage, you know, because so many billion dollars by this period, regime was diverted to wars and for nuclear and facilitating the proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis and so on and so forth.
00:43:12
lpaltiguzman
water Water shortage, electricity shortage,
00:43:33
Amit Mor
So I hope that the the next administration there will be more pragmatic and allow some economic development and put its its mind to enhance and develop the Iranian economy and not to fight a its a neighbors.
00:43:54
lpaltiguzman
Well, thank you so much, Amit. It was a very insightful conversation and stay safe.
00:44:01
Amit Mor
Thank you very much, Leslie.
00:44:11
lpaltiguzman
This episode was recorded on March 12, 2026. This is Leslie Peltie-Guzman saying good day and good luck.