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Leslie Chats with Ira Joseph on Qatar and the US: Collusion or Collision in the LNG Market?
84 Plays29 days ago
In this episode of Energy Vista, Leslie Palti-Guzman sits down with global #gas and #power expert Ira Joseph to discuss Qatar's #LNG strategy and relations between the world’s two top exporters: the United States and Qatar.
Leslie opens the conversation with a provocative framing: are we heading toward a Yalta-style collusion between Washington and Doha—where each claims its sphere of influence (Qatar in Asia, US in the Atlantic)? Or are we on the brink of a collision—a full-blown market share war in an oversupplied LNG world?
Together, Leslie and Ira unpack:
- How Qatar’s LNG expansion fits into its soft power strategy
- The current LNG market demand/supply balance with the upper end to the buyers
- Why the US exports cannot be centrally coordinated like Qatar’s
- The role of shipping disruptions (e.g. Red Sea, Panama Canal) in shaping trade flows
- Europe’s place in the US-Qatar equation
- What this all means for buyers navigating an increasingly geopolitical gas market
🎧 Tune in for an episode rich with insight on market dynamics, export strategy, and the energy diplomacy shaping LNG’s next decade.
This episode was recorded on October 31, 2025 and is available on Apple, Spotify and Youtube.
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Transcript
Introduction to Energy Vista
00:00:08
lpaltiguzman
Welcome to en Energy Vista, a podcast on energy issues, personal and professional trajectories. A podcast where we make experts great again, and we contribute actively to the public debate and policymaking around commodities, the geopolitics of energy and trade.
00:00:27
lpaltiguzman
I'm your host, Leslie Pelti-Guzman.
Qatar's Sovereign Wealth Fund and Global Influence
00:00:30
lpaltiguzman
Today, we're going to talk about Qatar, a country worth watching, With almost, i I believe in the latest figures, $424 billion dollars in sovereign wealth fund, DOA holds considerable soft power in global diplomacy, finance, charities, and education.
00:00:53
lpaltiguzman
But to understand Qatar's influence, you first need to understand where that money comes from and whether that war chest is likely to grow in the coming years.
Hydrocarbons and LNG Focus in Qatar
00:01:03
lpaltiguzman
Like other Gulf countries, Qatar talks about diversifying its economy away from fossil fuels.
00:01:11
lpaltiguzman
But for now, over 83% of its revenues still come from hydrocarbons and mostly liquefied nitrile gas, LNG. And this dependency is likely to deepen as Qatar undertakes one of the world's largest LNG expansion with growing export capacity.
US-Qatar LNG Relationship: Cooperation or Competition?
00:01:32
lpaltiguzman
That brings me to one of the biggest questions that I will be watching in the coming years is what's the future of the U.S.-Catar relationship? They are the two world's ah largest LNG exporters today, and both are expanding, almost doubling each their export capacity by the early two thousand thirty s
00:01:56
lpaltiguzman
those new volumes come at a time where we're likely to be in an oversupplied market. So for me, you know, are we going to head towards collusion or collision between Washington and Qatar?
Geopolitical Scenarios in LNG Market
00:02:14
lpaltiguzman
The collusion scenario is the yeah for me is the Yalta of Gaz, where basically there there is an understanding between the two powers where each claims its own sphere of influence.
00:02:27
lpaltiguzman
Qatar keeps Asia, the US keeps the Atlantic. But I'm very cautious with this vision because they both have a very different ah model. Qatar Energy is one single state-owned company.
00:02:41
lpaltiguzman
um The US is a diversity of multiple private actors that each have their interests and strategies, capitalistic. But de facto, this division is already happening today.
00:02:55
lpaltiguzman
ah driven by the war in Ukraine, where most of US LNG headed to Europe, and also the disruptions on the shipping and maritime side, where Qatar gas LNG is mostly in Asia right now.
00:03:09
lpaltiguzman
um And for this scenario to work, ah we need continued instability in the Red Sea, where it limits competition between the US and Qatar and Asia. And also, we need Russian gas to stay on the sideline.
00:03:21
ira
Uh...
00:03:22
lpaltiguzman
um and But this scenario is the one that Qatar prefers because it prevents the US and Qatar to be on and complete frontal confrontation on the economic and commercial side.
Qatar's LNG Market Challenges and Strategies
00:03:38
lpaltiguzman
The other scenario is a market share war that I see, the collision one. And in this case, um you know, because we're in the likely in the glut, both ah like the molecules from the US and Qatar will desperately need to find a home and they will compete at any cost ah in each and every market.
00:04:03
lpaltiguzman
So this is some of the issues we're going to explore today. And I'm delighted to have as a guest, ah Ira Joseph, who is a senior research associate at the Center of Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, a longtime observer and analyst um on pricing, generating fuels, and the electric power.
00:04:28
lpaltiguzman
um Hi, Ira. Thanks for joining the Energy Vista podcast.
00:04:30
ira
it Hi, Leslie. This is really exciting for me and a great introduction there. I'm not sure I have anything left to say after that. That was fantastic.
00:04:40
lpaltiguzman
So it's October 31, 2025, and time for a new Vista episode.
00:04:41
ira
think you caught it all.
00:04:49
lpaltiguzman
So we're going to talk, as I mentioned, about Qatar. You co-authored with Anne-Sophie Carbo a very good but paper and that is ah still fresh from the oven. It was published in September on Qatar's LNG decisions and how it will impact the oversupplied markets.
00:05:08
lpaltiguzman
And actually, you're going into different scenarios in this paper.
00:05:09
ira
uh
00:05:11
lpaltiguzman
um So you have your own scenarios in there. and But one of the main questions for me, you know I was mentioning this big ah sovereign wealth fund that Qatar has, over $424 billion.
00:05:21
ira
um
00:05:24
lpaltiguzman
dollars Is this wealth fund going to expand even more with more revenues from the exports?
Global LNG Market Dynamics and Qatar's Strategy
00:05:32
lpaltiguzman
Or is it going to be challenged by a more difficult market and more competition from other suppliers, including the US?
00:05:45
ira
Yeah, so I think, I mean, i think in terms of the wealth fund, it will it will keep getting wealthier and and it will continue to grow. I just think the we're kind of at we're kind of phasing out of like one period in LNG history here and phasing into your another. We're kind of phasing out of the post-Russian invasion of Ukraine period.
00:06:07
ira
where we have the $10 to $12 gas in Europe and Asia and the, let's say, $2 to $3 gas, $350 gas in the US and massive margins and huge amounts of money being made by sellers of LNG.
00:06:20
ira
And we're entering this new period, which you you mentioned, and as you know, is a big 50% increase in overall LNG supply and LNG capacity over the next five years. So in each of the next five years,
00:06:34
ira
there's gonna be more LNG supply entering the market in each of the next five years than in any year in the history of the LNG business other than two. So we're talking about it a massive amount of supply coming into the market. and And really for me, almost the only way to see it, and I've certainly tried to game out other scenarios as you're talking about here,
00:06:53
ira
is that the price of TTF and JKM are going to come down and the price of Henry Hub is going to go up. And we're going to sort of, you know, get towards a price that's you know different prices where we're kind of in the middle of where we are now. Now, how much does that affect the Qataris? So right now, the Qataris have all of their LNG under long-term contract that already exists at 77 million tons.
00:07:15
ira
Most, if not all of that, is oil indexed in one way or another. So the price of Brent really matters more to them now than the price of any of the spot benchmarks around them were at World for Gas.
00:07:27
ira
But that's going to shift, you know, over time. Because as we have talked about, it and as we certainly talked about in the paper, most of the LNG that Qatar is about to bring online, either this that the the you know the the the first expansion that's going to happen between now and the end of next year is 33 million tons.
00:07:46
ira
And only about 10 of that is under long-term contract. And then the next two expansions, which aren't under FID, but we expect to go forward, none of that LNG has been signed to anyone at all.
00:07:49
lpaltiguzman
Thank you.
00:07:57
ira
So Qatar has this massive amount of LNG that's coming into the market between what's going to be in the Qatar and then, of course, Golden Pass, which is also starting up in the US and is also their responsibility. So let's just roughly call 50 million tons of LNG are coming into the market.
00:08:14
ira
Let's say less than 10 have been signed under long term contract. And we have absolutely no idea what the Qataris are going to do here with this LNG.
00:08:21
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:08:21
ira
It's an unprecedented situation for them. I'm sure it will enter the market in one way or another, but unless they're about to sign a huge number of contracts that we don't know about, they signed one just the other day for a million tons, but a million isn't 50 million.
00:08:37
ira
We have no idea what's going to happen. And that really is what makes the LNG market so exciting now is that is that we're really entered into this completely unknown period of time where this sort of The, the, the, the country, the most traditional LNG seller in the world who sells LNG in one way has to now completely pivot and sell LNG in a way that we've never seen before. So we'll see what happens.
Qatar vs US: LNG Export Positioning
00:09:00
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. So you know once their expansion is completed, at least the first phase,
00:09:06
ira
Yeah.
00:09:07
lpaltiguzman
um saw some numbers from Bloomberg, I think, mentioning that it could add about $30 billion annually to the state revenue. But from what you're mentioning, and I agree, it depends on so many different factors, including the oil price, um demand also.
00:09:23
lpaltiguzman
And um right now, Qatar is sending about 25% of its energy to China.
00:09:24
ira
yeah
00:09:29
lpaltiguzman
ah China is a big uncertainty also as um as a you know gas market in the future. um So right now they are generating a about $115 billion I think, in recent years. So was at its...
00:09:45
lpaltiguzman
one hundred and fifteen billion was in two thousand and twenty two when the gas price was at um highest level following the war in Ukraine. It declined a little bit in 2023. Not sure what we the latest number for 2024 and 2025, but let's say that ah on a yearly basis, Qatar is currently generating more than 80 billions a year in export revenue from LNG.
00:10:12
lpaltiguzman
um But a lot of uncertainty again for for the coming years. um So In the scenario where gas prices, as you mentioned, decline, let's say we're in an environment of $6 per million BTU, maybe five, maybe four,
00:10:29
lpaltiguzman
um who is ah the best position between Qatar and the US?
00:10:36
ira
ah You know, in a low price environment like that, I mean, I think Qatar is in a good position there because they do have all of their LNG currently sold under long-term contract from the existing trains.
00:10:46
ira
So, you know, if, if the spot price drops to five or six, which, you know, or you know, that kind of range,
00:10:47
lpaltiguzman
From the existing one.
00:10:54
ira
there nothing's goingnna nothing's going to affect them from those trains. Now, the expansion, let's say the 32 million ton expansion could be affected, obviously. But given, I mean, I've always thought because Qatar is the world's low cost producer and they're kicking off so much oil and NGLs with it anyway, there's no way i can really realistically see them shutting in production. And even if they had to sell that LNG at cost, which is a really low cost or even below cost,
00:11:20
ira
There's so much money being kicked off from the between the crude and the liquids that but i don't I don't think it really affects them the way it affects the US. In the US, in a low price environment, is is one of two things has to happen. Either LNG export capacity has to get shut in or US gas production has to get shut in. One of those two things is likely to happen in this scenario because just to you know if if we do get down to $6 per million BTU, that's cutting it real close if you have to factor in you know the price of Henry Hub plus the markup to liquefy it and the shipping, and et cetera, to, you know, kind of a break even.
00:11:55
ira
And, and so that, that, that puts the U S in, in, I think kind of the swing position for the market going forward, assuming that everything comes online and, and, and the market has to grow, but to, again, to, you know, to, to absorb that amount of gas in that short a period of time, when we haven't really seen the corresponding type of investment on the demand side in actually consuming this gas,
00:12:01
lpaltiguzman
Thank you.
00:12:20
ira
you have to get to a price down to a price point that's really going to have to incentivize demand in places that we normally
Diplomacy in Qatar's Market Strategies
00:12:25
ira
don't see. Obviously, Indy would be the biggest example of that, given how underutilized there you know their gas capacity is in in the power generation sector, but also in other areas as well.
00:12:35
ira
So it's not impossible.
00:12:36
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:12:37
ira
It's just that excuse me more LNG is going to mean in lower prices.
00:12:37
lpaltiguzman
yeah
00:12:45
ira
excuse me
00:12:45
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:12:46
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. And i remember um that during COVID, we saw some shutdown in US LNG exports, cancellation of cargoes, and the US were the first ones to cut their exports.
00:13:00
ira
Yeah, that I think it was like 75 cargoes is kind of the number, but it was significant. It also led to a reduction U.S. gas production again because you cut that amount of volume coming out of the U.S., that's going to have almost an immediate impact on Henry Hub down to levels where breakeven costs in a lot of you know gas production areas just are not met and then and then production eventually has to be shut in.
00:13:23
ira
So the interplay between LNG exports and U.S.
00:13:24
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:13:26
ira
gas production is a really fascinating aspect of it.
00:13:29
lpaltiguzman
yeah And also, even when there are long-term contracts, whether it's in Qatar or in the U.S., the fact that U.S. energy contracts are much more flexible means that they are the ones that will shut in first.
00:13:42
ira
It seems that way. Yeah.
00:13:44
ira
That, that, that is certainly my assumption going forward. And I would, would recommend that would be a assumption for most people that that's exactly what that that's exactly what can happen.
00:13:44
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:13:53
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. So you mentioned India, you mentioned opening new markets as a potential strategy for Qatar.
00:13:59
ira
Yeah.
00:13:59
lpaltiguzman
ah Also, Qatar... and Qatar's commercial strategy is, we cannot separate it from its diplomatics, I mean, so its diplomacy and foreign policy.
00:14:13
lpaltiguzman
um
00:14:13
ira
Sure.
00:14:14
lpaltiguzman
And in the past, Qatar has done a lot of government to government deals, ah whether it's Pakistan, ah Bangladesh, or other. Do you see it as a strategy also in the future?
00:14:27
lpaltiguzman
to strike new deals, new ah long-term agreements, and um basically sell more gas to some of the countries maybe in Southeast Asia also um or the Middle East.
00:14:39
ira
I think that's exactly what they've been trying to do. They've just been terribly, you know, unsuccessful in doing it. I mean, you've seen the new ROWACE, the 10 million ton Abu Dhabi project, you know, sign up contracts. You've seen a lot of US LNG projects sign up new long-term contracts, but the Qataris up until this week, when they signed the 1 million ton contract with the Indian buyer, just haven't been able to sign any contracts. And I just think I think they're trying to defend a price that really, it seems to me is indefensible at this time. I mean, obviously they can go lower and I think they can move the gas.
00:15:13
ira
And I think if, you know, logic dictates, that's exactly what's going to happen is that they're going to have to move the slope price down, ah particularly for countries like Bangladesh and, and, and country, the poor countries in Asia, because the threshold to bring in that kind of LNG and burn it without heavily subsidizing the the gas is going
Optimizing LNG Routes: Qatar and US
00:15:32
ira
to be really, really difficult. But I think,
00:15:34
ira
I think that's exactly what happens in the end is that at the end of the day, they're just going to have to discount the gas in order to move it. And they're going to have to really discount it in order to get it under a long-term contract. So we'll see.
00:15:47
lpaltiguzman
So in this case, it would bring really LNG molecules and Kateri molecules on the market share war.
00:15:55
ira
Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, I think your premise that you, you led with, it was collusion or what? I can't remember. It was the two C's.
00:16:02
lpaltiguzman
Yeah, collusion or collision?
00:16:02
ira
What was it?
00:16:07
ira
Or collision, yes. I think that collusion is going to be more than collision, although not really collusion. I think what you're right. I think when the when the market sort of settles towards transportation differentials around the world between the main main markets, and and those are the differentials that will establish with the global prices in a $2 to $3 range, I think most US LNG is going to go to Europe, and I think most Qatari LNG is going to go to Asia. I just think that's sort of the logical trade route for them.
00:16:35
ira
and what makes them what really really makes the most amount of sense you know for for a period of time. Obviously in the winter, there's going to be some movement around, but i mean you already see, you know Qatar exports like between 300 and 350 million cubic meters a day right now, and now less than 50 of that is going to Europe. And that's been happening over the past two years.
00:16:55
ira
Part of that has to do with the Corporate Sustainability Initiative. Part of that has to do with just better prices in Europe for them. Part of that has to do with the Suez Canal, as you mentioned. And I think part of that has to do with Golden Pass is about to start up. And while, you know, that's U.S.-based LNG, it is their LNG. And I think all of it's going to go to Northwest Europe where they have import capacity to take it.
00:17:16
ira
And I think so shifting the Qatari LNG to Asia and the and their U.S.
00:17:17
lpaltiguzman
Yep.
00:17:21
ira
equity to to Europe is is is really part of the broader strategy, which, by the way, none of the golden pass of LNG is also under long term contract. But of course, they do have access to the European market through Zeebrugger.
00:17:34
ira
And i forget, always forget which terminal in Europe. i think it's Isle of Grain in in the UK. um you know, gives them kind of a, you know, for lack of a better metaphor, an LNG g pipeline into the Northwest European spot market, which is good enough and and and kind of substitutes for having a long term contract.
Qatar's Market Advantages in Asia
00:17:51
lpaltiguzman
you I definitely agree. Golden Pass to Europe and the rest of the Qatari LNG from Qatar to Asia would be optimal for Qatar. It will also prevent them really from being on the head-to-head competition with the U.S.,
00:18:10
lpaltiguzman
and And here we need to talk about the geopolitics. Qatar really needs the US s as a security guarantor and has, you know, over the years cultivated relationship with key US companies like Conoco, Exxon,
00:18:26
lpaltiguzman
also in part because they think it will help them with their security guarantees. um But so it's not in Qatar's geopolitical interest to be too much on the commercial war with the US.
00:18:39
lpaltiguzman
So for them, the best would be to tacitly agree on dividing the markets, like a Yalta for gas, where You know, the US keeps Europe and the Atlantic Basin and Qatar keeps Asia and the other emerging markets in the region, including the Middle East or something like that.
00:19:02
lpaltiguzman
And the shipping routes here, like for me from the beginning and Qatar had in the past relationship with the Houthi, I think it, you know, it didn't really help with like solving any of the issue in the Red Sea.
00:19:15
lpaltiguzman
I think it really plays actually in the interest of Qatar to for the US to have a longer route to go to Asia. And we have on top of that the issues with the Panama Canal.
00:19:28
lpaltiguzman
um And ah in addition to that, we had the Houthi attacking tankers and basically having all the LNG tankers ah going the long route around the Cape of Good Hope.
00:19:41
lpaltiguzman
So whether it's Qatar or the US, it's a longer route either for the US to go to Asia or for Qatar to go to Europe. And as you mentioned, like right now, if you look at the whole ah European gas imports, so LNG and pipeline, um Qatar is only 4% of those imports compared to the US, which is about 17%
00:20:00
ira
Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:05
ira
Right. And there are only 15% of their exports are going to Europe. I just looked it up as we were talking
European Sustainability Directives Impact
00:20:10
ira
here.
00:20:10
lpaltiguzman
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:20:10
ira
So it's, it's, it's a tiny amount. And, and listen, at the end of the day, Qatar can make more money and sell at a lower price into Asia than the U S ever can.
00:20:21
ira
So again, higher net back at a lower price into Asia all day long. So they can really they can really cause a problem for US marketers in Asia. Now, like, of course, a lot of US s projects, there's like 35, 40 million tons of LNG that's contracted to China.
00:20:38
ira
What's going to end up happening is that, you know, a lot of that's going to end up going to Europe, but it is contracted to China and it is sort of part of like this, this sort of weird ah equation we have to solve for between where the LNG is contracted and where it's actually going to go.
00:20:53
ira
ah and And then, of course, there's the issue of the aggregator and portfolio volumes, which which make up probably 40 percent of the entire growth that we're seeing here.
00:20:53
lpaltiguzman
Yep.
00:21:02
ira
And we have no idea where that's going to go, because essentially what's happened is that all the risk has been shifted from the sellers to the to the middle middlemen in terms of the LNG.
00:21:11
lpaltiguzman
yeah
00:21:11
ira
And that also, along with the uncontracted Qatari LNG, you know, really, really sort of has to redefine how LNG is going to be traded in the future in in ways that we, we it's going to be really difficult to assess at this point.
00:21:25
lpaltiguzman
Very interesting. You mentioned also Qatar strategy in Europe and their opposition to the European corporate sustainability directive.
00:21:37
ira
Yeah.
00:21:37
lpaltiguzman
And I was very surprised to see that the Department of Energy released the letter last week ah authored by um the Secretary Chris Wright and ah Qatari Minister Al-Khabib, who is also the head of Qatar Energy.
00:21:59
lpaltiguzman
um And i what surprised me is for the US government to side with Qatar against this directive.
00:22:10
lpaltiguzman
So I understand that both have common understandings that it impacts their big companies, like Chenier for the US or Conoco or Exxon for the US and many others.
00:22:23
lpaltiguzman
And it goes beyond the energy sector. But there are so many more differences between Qatar and the US, and they are not aligned on many of those European directives or have different interests ah to defend.
00:22:37
lpaltiguzman
So for example, and I wrote a piece actually CSIS on this particular topic And I submitted my draft just a week before, so I didn't change anything when the letter came out.
00:22:49
lpaltiguzman
But um I was thinking of you know the position that Europe anyway is going to show more pragmatism and water down some of its directives. But I was highlighting many of the differences between the US s and Qatar.
US-Qatar Geopolitical Maneuvers
00:23:03
lpaltiguzman
And for the corporate directives, um um Actually, Qatar is more concerned about the human rights dimension of the sustainability directive, something that the US is not concerned at all.
00:23:18
lpaltiguzman
And then you have other extraterritorial directives like the methane directive or the carbon um ah border and adjustment directive that we both have different perspectives to.
00:23:31
lpaltiguzman
And so I thought it was interesting that, um and I think it's the first time the DOE is actually jointly writing a letter like this with another minister, Oh, and also I should mention that Qatar has taken a very aggressive approach on this directive and has threatened several times Europe to curtail its exports because of this directive, which is an interesting, you know, position. And I don't think it would be wise for the U.S., you know, at any point to threaten to curtail exports.
00:24:05
lpaltiguzman
um They didn't go that far in the letter, but Qatar did in the past and made some statements on this.
00:24:13
ira
Yeah, I mean, if the US curtailed exports over the directive, they would, Henry Hubb would go to zero. I mean, i don't i don't think US gas producers, you know, that really, you know, is is in their in their best interest. So, I mean, I think you break down the the the the the the directive into into who's most vulnerable with what. I think that's right.
00:24:33
ira
Because if this was just about you know meeting you know meeting production standards, you know the Qataris actually have done a pretty good job environmentally with what they do inside of Qatar. And so the human rights issues, I think, are are the real issue for them. Where with the US,
00:24:49
ira
be the production of LNG is so non it not integrated and there's so many different places that you can have fugitive gas emissions along the supply chain from the field all the way to, you know, the regasification terminal, wherever that is in the world, that it's it would be hard to track, frankly, and and hard to, you know, and and really hard to sort of meet that kind of that kind of goal. I kind of agree with you. I totally agree with you. Like, I think it's all going to get watered down. i think I think the direction of this is is headed in the other direction, because if there were any two countries in the world that could meet these standards, I would put probably Qatar and the U.S. s first in line, and then every other LNG producer after them in terms of meeting those kind of standards. So the fact that they don't see this as a commercial advantage and they see this as a detriment to them,
00:25:37
ira
you know, suggests a sort of wider vulnerability for the business. I mean, at the end of the day, if if Europe doesn't want to, wants to buy less LNG based on these standards, European gas demand is going to collapse because there's no way there, the prices are going to go even higher than they are now, you know, based on the additional costs that would be imposed on the LNG and Europe will just continue to shrink as a gas market, which would probably be really bad for the rest of the world, gas price wise.
00:25:52
lpaltiguzman
Thank you.
00:26:03
ira
But, uh, if if Europe were to go down that road. But I think Europe's going down that road anyway. I've said many times, European gas demand's been falling for 20 years. I don't think that's going to
Qatar's Diplomatic Balancing Act
00:26:12
ira
stop. I think it's going to continue. And it's just a matter of what's going to substitute in for the Russian gas that's off the market, at least for now, and probably is, it will at least in in in total volumes for for the future. So yeah, it surprised me too.
00:26:29
ira
And I don't think, I don't think i don't think either Qatar or U.S. has much leverage here anyway. And I think they were just kind of like, you know, and announcing their presence with authority without actually having any authority in this case.
00:26:44
ira
as Because we just said, you know, Qatar has less than 15% of their exports are going to to um to Europe, and I expect it to go to zero. So if they're not selling in the melody LNG anyway, why why do they care what how the Europe dictates where the LNG is going to go?
00:26:54
lpaltiguzman
yeah
00:27:00
lpaltiguzman
So I think for me it's a PR coup, like a communication strategy, and it it plays two roles maybe.
00:27:03
ira
Yes, that's right.
00:27:08
lpaltiguzman
One is, as you remember, Qatar helped the US strike the ceasefire basically and helped also with the hostage release.
00:27:18
lpaltiguzman
Finally, the Israeli hostages after two years of war.
00:27:19
ira
Yeah.
00:27:22
lpaltiguzman
And in exchange, the US offer some security guarantees to Doha and apologize ah from Prime Minister Netanyahu after the strike in in Doha. And maybe this joint letter from DOE to show like a common ground and some common eye alliances.
00:27:38
lpaltiguzman
Or also, um you know, ConocoPhillips, Qatar, sorry, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, both are very involved in Qatar.
00:27:39
ira
Yeah.
00:27:49
lpaltiguzman
um They're also um concerned with the directive. And they wanted to basically um show um that the U.S. s is backing Qatar.
00:28:01
lpaltiguzman
um Because this summer, ah to be honest, was a nightmare for Qatar. ah First, they were attacked in June um by Iran.
00:28:13
lpaltiguzman
um I mean, the U.S. military base was attacked by Iran in June. Also in June, ah Israel struck the South Sparse field, one of the blocs in the South Sparse field.
00:28:28
lpaltiguzman
And in September, Israel ah attacked the Hamas ah leadership in Doha, which basically um exposed in plain sight the vulnerability of Qatar's geography.
00:28:44
lpaltiguzman
and its relationships with its neighbors and and groups like Hamas. So I think you know it was important also for companies ahead that have huge interest and investments in Qatar to show a common alliance between the U.S. and Qatar.
00:29:00
ira
Yeah, I mean, listen, at the end of the day, the U.S. has 10,000 troops in Qatar. That kind of tells you, you know, what the relationship is about. But Qatar's, you know, influence is, you know, is really based on the amount of money that they can, you know, spread around in the U.S. s and Brussels. And at the end of the day, if you know, if if a foreign entity wanted to take out 100% of their LNG gas exports, it would take them probably a couple hours to do it and they'd be gone for years. So like they have to, obviously, they're in a very difficult position. and Not very difficult, but they're in a position where, that you know, they can only demand so much.
00:29:36
ira
and And I think you're right. And I think the instincts of the PR thing is right. I think this is more U.S.-led than maybe Qatari-led, and kind of the Qataris went along with it. I didn't think about it that way, but I think that, that to me, given the administration's position on how they're positioning LNG as sort of an economic foreign policy weapon, I think that that that makes sense the way you're explaining it.
00:30:00
lpaltiguzman
Very interesting. um Well, we have so much to discuss about Qatar, but I wanted also to hear, um Ira, a little bit about your personal, professional trajectory.
Insights from Ira Joseph on Energy Sector
00:30:14
ira
Really? Oh, I didn't know that was coming.
00:30:15
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:30:17
ira
Okay.
00:30:18
lpaltiguzman
So, um yeah.
00:30:19
ira
Uh, sure.
00:30:21
lpaltiguzman
yeah.
00:30:22
ira
Um, so yeah.
00:30:22
lpaltiguzman
so
00:30:23
ira
Okay. Go ahead. I'm sorry.
00:30:25
lpaltiguzman
No, i I counted, but I don't want to age you. But it seems like for 30 years now, you've been an expert, a specialist, an analyst with a deep experience on the energy power sector.
00:30:39
lpaltiguzman
um And I was just wondering, where do you feel this job is heading now? And where are you personally ah What stage? you know Everybody is talking about the revolution of AI, how it's going to change all our white-collar jobs. um So how do you feel about all this?
00:30:56
ira
Well, so I've been, yeah, I'm going to age myself. So I've been doing this since 1989. So over 30, 35 years. ah And it's been great. I didn't expect to be and to to be in the energy industry at all in any capacity. So it's it's been a really good place. And as you know, the the the the business has been really, you know, really, really interesting over time. And when sort of I look at like what I do for a living, you know,
00:31:23
ira
and And how that's going to evolve certainly with AI and, and the way things are happening. i still think there's obviously room out there for when, you know, you really have good ideas and insights. And at least in my own experience with AI is that it just allows me to, you know, to gather supporting evidence for sort of an idea that I have.
00:31:43
ira
and and helping me sort of flesh out an idea by finding all these sort of random facts that I need to, to support any kind of idea that I have. I certainly like on social media, as you know, when I when i when i work on Twitter, like I i try and you know look at, you know I come up with ideas about, you know things like the LNG paradox or LNG theater, which I said yesterday on Twitter, I talked about Alaska LNG being LNG theater. And my God, I can't remember the last time I got such a, I hadn't gotten such a big response on something I write and since Tellurian.
00:32:20
ira
ah was was was in existence. So it's, ah but it does help sort of, you know, when I think of an idea kind of helping on the research side, you know, getting to stuff that I can't otherwise find, you know, quickly.
00:32:33
ira
Also really helps with and mathematical calculations.
00:32:33
lpaltiguzman
So wait, so wait, so wait.
00:32:36
ira
I have to say it's really good for for doing, fruit for math, which is not my strong suit.
00:32:36
lpaltiguzman
Yes.
00:32:41
lpaltiguzman
So for for the theater tweet, what was you and what was Twitter? ah What was you and what was ChatGPG?
00:32:48
ira
No, it was all me.
00:32:49
ira
It was all me. So but I was I was just saying that that that when I you know, if I'm if I'm thinking about Alaska LNG, let's say, and Trump basically mentioned it in his speech and then everyone was shocked that he mentioned it because it evidently had nothing to do with what was being talked about the other day. But clearly when Trump thinks about Asia, he thinks about LNG. When he thinks about LNG in China, he thinks about Alaska.
00:32:49
lpaltiguzman
Oh yeah.
00:33:15
ira
You can kind of see the logical way that his mind is kind of going towards that, whether or not it had to do with the the relevant thing of the moment. So then, you know, I just, on chat, like like if I use chat GDP, I'm like, okay, how many of these sort of, you know, letters of intent or memorandums of understanding has U.S. signed with who over the past, you know, nine months?
00:33:36
ira
Because I just can't remember off the top of my head. And so for ChatDpt, it sort of you know fires them up or you know or or using the Google Gemini version, ah you know it fires them up really fast. It provides me the sources. I can check the sources and then then it allows me to sort of you know write.
00:33:53
ira
the But the theater line is is was 100% me.
00:33:56
lpaltiguzman
yeah Yeah,
00:33:57
ira
I was going to use the line Kabuki theater, but it's not a Japanese thing.
00:33:57
lpaltiguzman
yeah
00:34:01
ira
It's a Chinese thing. So it kind of was a ah cultural mismatch. So I just decided to use LNG theater instead.
00:34:07
lpaltiguzman
yeah yeah by the way, um Chinese companies had already signed non-binding agreements in 2017 for Alaska. So all yeah almost at deca but ah almost a decade ago and nothing happened.
00:34:16
ira
Oh, see, there you go. i didn't.
00:34:21
ira
Exactly.
00:34:22
lpaltiguzman
Yes.
00:34:23
ira
Exactly.
00:34:23
lpaltiguzman
and yeah But yeah.
00:34:24
ira
I mean, um yeah people have been signing agreements for Alaska LNG for 40 years. It's not, this is not like a new, in other iterations of the project, not in this current iteration.
00:34:29
lpaltiguzman
Yeah. Yeah.
00:34:33
lpaltiguzman
yeah Yes. So you're using it for a little bit of research, ah flesh out some ideas. And, you know, for me, I i don't think, you know, for analysts who try to anticipate trends or try to, you know, like you did in your paper, flesh out some scenarios.
00:34:53
lpaltiguzman
I don't think, ah you know, the body is yet artificial and intelligence is yet there. um But we'll have to always reinvent ourselves.
00:35:04
ira
No, I think, i mean, I think that's right. ah But it it, you know, it definitely has changed the way i work a bit. I have to say that. um having it there, it just, it, it makes it easier to do background research and find sourcing than before. Now I'm not in the forecasting business anymore. Like you are, i work at Columbia.
00:35:24
ira
So my job isn't to forecast, but you know, to sort of point out trends that I see. And like another, another great one was about, you know, I had this idea like that, that it's really interesting that downstream companies are moving upstream and upstream companies are moving downstream in LNG. Like,
00:35:40
ira
Jera is buying acreage and Tokyo Gas are buying acreage in the U.S. Gulf Coast. And, you know, and then, you know, and then, you know, companies like EQT are announcing that they're not only going to go into liquefaction, but they're going to get into regasification elsewhere in the world because they want to create a chain.
00:35:57
lpaltiguzman
Yeah.
00:35:58
ira
So it really helps me look up, you know, or kind of seek out other areas where where I can sort of, you know, ah fatten up the the point here by other examples of where this is happening. So things like that.
00:36:10
ira
Because as ah as you didn't point out that I will, that I'm getting to the age where I can't remember everything like I used to.
00:36:18
lpaltiguzman
Great. Well, I'm ah very happy we managed to exchange today. And thanks for all your contributions for public debate.
00:36:27
ira
Oh, thank you for having me.
00:36:28
ira
And thank you for having me. it's ah I'm glad you're doing this podcast. And i I look forward to talking in the future, as
00:36:28
lpaltiguzman
for pivoting today
Podcast Conclusion
00:36:36
ira
always.
00:36:36
lpaltiguzman
Thank you. Thank you.
00:36:46
lpaltiguzman
This episode was recorded on October 31st, 2025.
00:36:51
ira
Thank you.
00:36:52
lpaltiguzman
And this is Leslie Palti-Guzman saying good day and good luck.