Transcript
lpaltiguzman: Welcome to Energy Vista, a podcast on timely energy issues, personal and professional trajectories. I'm your host, Leslie Pelti-Guzman. It's June 19, 2025, and time for a new Energy Vista episode.
lpaltiguzman: so Today I'm exchanging with Gina Cohen, gas analyst and lecturer from Israel. And I'm very happy that Gina was able to join us. This is a wartime right now in Israel.
lpaltiguzman: And I'm very fortunate to know Gina. She's one of the best to give us an update on the situation and an energy view also on trade flows and infrastructure in the East Med region.
lpaltiguzman: Hi, Gina.
Gina Cohen: Hi, Leslie.
lpaltiguzman: So first of all, i hope you are safe and that your family is safe. And, um you know, we've seen already some civilian casualties in Israel and the war is ongoing.
lpaltiguzman: um So how do you feel?
Gina Cohen: Well, I felt fine this morning. Nervous, but fine. But I went to visit my kids and my grandkids. And on the way back, there were missiles. There were about 15 missiles and new weaponry sent from Iran towards Israel this afternoon at about 4.30. And I was caught on the main road.
Gina Cohen: and And all of us stopped underneath a bridge, which was maybe just a semblance of security, but it felt better. And anyway, I got home just in time for this for this podcast.
lpaltiguzman: Wow. Thank you. Thank you for making it. um I thought most of the missiles the attacks that were not intercepted happened over the night, but this is this was during daytime, right? And it seems that Iran right now is launching like a new barrage of missiles in the north of Israel.
Gina Cohen: Yes, this was in the north. I think that they changed their tactic today because yesterday and the and defense establishment and the home front told Israelis that we could lessen our ah um necessity to stay at home and people can go to work if they want to go to work as long as it's not more than 30 people and as long as they have ah secure spaces to be in.
Gina Cohen: So Iran did not like this. They did not like images of Israelis going to malls whilst they are under attack. And this is why we understand that they attack during the daytime rather than only at night and with new weapons indeed.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. um So we're about in the seventh day of the Operation Rising Lion. The Israeli military launched this attack, like those preventive attacks to prevent the emergence of another nuclear power in the region.
lpaltiguzman: It's also a way to, in Israel's words, to go after the head of the octopus of terror following October 7th. um Do you feel that the Israeli population is backing up this operation and has the resilience um and want to see it finished as soon as possible? like What do you feel right now? is And I know it's hard to speak for all the Israelis, but like during wartime, it's important to know where the population stands.
Gina Cohen: Well, I haven't heard anybody speak against it. So I presume that yes, and that we support it. um Because it's not only to go against the nuclear weapons, it's also even just the year the the basic ah ballistic missiles.
Gina Cohen: They were building so many of them and they were prepared to give them out to whatever allies they have in the region. And so just the missiles were an exist existential threat to the country also.
Gina Cohen: So this is the reason why we did it.
lpaltiguzman: How's that?
Gina Cohen: and the opportunity was the best time possible with the new president in America, with Syria weakened, with the whole regional arena as we know it is. So, so yes, i of course people are worried, but I haven't had one person say, you know, this is not what we should be doing.
Gina Cohen: Of course, except for, and I can totally understand the, um, the families of the, uh, 20 or so hostages that are left alive.
lpaltiguzman: ah
Gina Cohen: Um, they of course, ah totally understandably, um, think it's not the right thing to do, yeah.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, I mean, the reason is because they think that the focus and the attention is less on Gaza and the hostages and now more on Iran.
Gina Cohen: Yes, it's not that they think it is less than Gaza.
lpaltiguzman: It is.
Gina Cohen: It's impossible to focus on all fronts.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Gina Cohen: And even they say themselves they have to go to through shelters and they have to stock up on food.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Gina Cohen: So the focus is on, and like you say, the head of the octopus or the snake or whatever, yes.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. um So um in terms of ah implications for for energy, ah by the way, I totally agree with you. I think the timing and the momentum is here for on the military and um also pure you know economic reasons.
Gina Cohen: you
lpaltiguzman: like in terms of where the oil and gas markets are right now. um and And military, yes, I mean, Israel had already weakened all the networks of the Iranian proxies, decapitating leadership of the Hamas, Hezbollah, and then going after, um you know, with spycraft and other um to, know,
lpaltiguzman: to make them less powerful in the region. So yeah, the the timing is here. um But in terms of critical energy infrastructure that have already been hit, so there was the Haifa refineries.
lpaltiguzman: um but In terms of impact and and for the Israeli domestic market, what what does it mean?
Gina Cohen: The Haifa refinery is the biggest one of the two refineries we have and it's situated in the middle of a yeah a big town. It caused the death of three people. um We've been wanting to remove the refineries for a long time and replace it with more ah just imports of of distilled products.
Gina Cohen: But um many people have have said of the last two years that luckily we did not remove it so that we're not totally dependent on imports. um The impact has been minimal. ah The Ministry has said that even the the emergency reserves of diesel and fuel oil and gasoline have not been touched.
Gina Cohen: The only thing that has been touched is that the private power stations in Israel all are operating on natural gas and all need 100 hours of diesel as emergency backup.
Gina Cohen: So this 100 hours has been touched. So the only thing that has been touched is this 100 hours of of backup. There's been no cuts of electricity anywhere.
Gina Cohen: and But of course, it means that they ah that they're able to hit infrastructure. So it it's a message that one is vulnerable to a certain extent. not terribly vulnerable because we have the we have the other refinery, which is the Ashdod one, which is interestingly enough is closed.
lpaltiguzman: and
Gina Cohen: It's closed for maintenance, but because it is closed, they stocked up and on on on on a lot of stock. So interestingly, although they're closed and they're not operating and they won't be operating for another two weeks, they have a lot of stock.
Gina Cohen: So they're able to give the stock out to all their clients and and and the ah Northern refineries clients.
lpaltiguzman: when when When did the maintenance start on Ashlod?
Gina Cohen: um a couple of weeks ago.
lpaltiguzman: Okay, so.
Gina Cohen: and it's going to last another couple of weeks.
lpaltiguzman: Right. Yeah.
Gina Cohen: And also, we're consuming less less less fuel because people have been at home for the last week.
lpaltiguzman: right
Gina Cohen: so So cars are driving much less. There's been no planes coming into Israel, very, very few planes. So we're consuming less.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Gina Cohen: So um that's not
lpaltiguzman: So, there were yeah, the the oil from the refineries is mostly used for transportation and maybe the industry.
Gina Cohen: Yes. which
lpaltiguzman: But as we know, um Israel now is producing a lot of natural gas and most of the power generation in Israel is coming from natural gas. Correct?
Gina Cohen: Yeah, nearly 71% of the power generation comes from natural gas. about um About half, about 14, 15% comes from coal, about 14, 15% comes from renewable.
Gina Cohen: The renewable is 95% solar. ninety five percent solar and if you just a little bit of wind.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: so see what some
lpaltiguzman: So, yeah.
Gina Cohen: so yeah
lpaltiguzman: um And in terms of natural gas um impact, Leviathan is still shut down, I believe, out of precaution. um
Gina Cohen: ah So before we get to what has been shut down in terms of power generation, because we're in a very um good season for for solar generation, because it's hot but not too hot,
Gina Cohen: and we're we're we're producing, or the country is producing, the maximum amount of solar power possible.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: So both people are at home have not been using their cars and planes have not been flying, so consumption has gone down. But solar energy has gone up during the daytime.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Gina Cohen: So that has helped a lot. we were supposed to start to close down our coal stations, but they have not been closed down. The reason they have not been closed down is because there's been delays in closing them down and converting them to gas because of the because of the October 2023 war, because staff have not come from abroad to do the conversion.
Gina Cohen: So we still have coal stations, we have more solar stations, we have less consumption. So luckily this has caught us, or it hasn't caught us because we initiated the war, like you said, but this this this this this time has arrived when, from the terms of power generation, for now, we're doing okay.
Gina Cohen: And even in terms of gas, we have three gas fields, Tamar, Leviathan, and Karish,
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: Two were shut down for precaution reasons, Leviathan and Karish, and only one field, the Tamar field, is in operations.
lpaltiguzman: So you seem pretty optimistic on the power mix and diversification that allows you know no electricity outage and and kind of a self-sufficiency for the Israeli domestic gas market.
lpaltiguzman: Now, when we turn Leviathan, the biggest impact is exports, right? Exports to Egypt and Jordan that have been halted also at the same time as the field was shut down out of precaution.
Gina Cohen: Yeah, so the fields were shut down 7.30 in the morning on Friday the 13th of June. both fields were shut down. Karish, through regulations, has to supply all of its gas to Israel.
Gina Cohen: Leviathan, so Karish is the smallest one, belongs to a company called Enerjan, a British Greek company. Leviathan is the biggest field, over 600 BCM.
Gina Cohen: um And about 80% of its gas output goes for exports to Egypt and to Jordan. and And exports were shut to Egypt and to Jordan on on that same Friday.
Gina Cohen: um Just once we
lpaltiguzman: and As a quick consequence, I believe that, you know, and I don't think many people are paying attention to this, but Egypt was already in a very precarious energy situation ah with issues in its own domestic fields, um electricity outages, and has been dependent on the pipeline in imports from Israeli gas,
lpaltiguzman: Right now, because of the maritime security issues, and many tankers have not been delivering the LNG they were supposed to deliver to Egypt.
lpaltiguzman: So I believe you know this war is also putting Egypt in a very vulnerable position.
Gina Cohen: What happens in Egypt is they're producing about 4.2 BCF a day and they need about 6.2 BCF a day ah and in the summer. and they were getting Last year they got from Israel about 10-11 BCM of gas.
Gina Cohen: So it's a vital vital amount. Even with the 10 BCM of gas that they were getting a year from us, they They were unable as of April last year, April 2024, to export any LNG.
Gina Cohen: So, yes, since April last year, since April 2024, they became a net ah gas importer. ah What is happening with the LNG, g so they have one FSRU, and FSRU is a facility that can regasify LNG.
Gina Cohen: and So it's not so much that the ships can't come to Egypt because of security situation, but that they have no import capacity because they only have one FSRU ah which is functioning.
Gina Cohen: They were able to use an FSRU which was in Jordan called the the Eskimo, and and Jordan and Egypt were were sharing the use of this FSRU.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: But um on the 4th of June, the Eskimo left Jordan, went towards Egypt, it's arrived in Egypt, but it is not yet hooked up to the to the to the system in Egypt.
Gina Cohen: So now both Jordan and Egypt ah remain, in Jordan without any FSRU and Jordan with only one FSRU. So ships have arrived in Egypt and with a huge backlog, unable to to unload the LNG on the ships.
Gina Cohen: One ship has already left towards Europe. And so, yes, Egypt and Jordan are in a really bad situation, which will be resolved at the end of this month. At the end of this month, two FSRUs will be hooked up, will be hooked up to Egypt, the one that came from from Jordan and one which they which they got from from Germany.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. I mean, I see on truck shipment and you know platform that a few tankers have not been moving ah from the Gulf of Suez for a couple of days now.
lpaltiguzman: And I mean, I'm i'm sure the transit has been slowing down a lot, um which I'm sure is not helpful for Egypt.
Gina Cohen: Yeah. yeah
lpaltiguzman: um Yeah, that's very interesting. And so both Jordan and H, do we know if Leviathan will resume? Do we know um if there are pressure ring Israel to resume the ah production given their development?
Gina Cohen: So the minister yeah the Minister of Energy, Ali Cohen, made the pdo press conference yesterday and he said that we're going to restart exports. All the all the newspapers, Bloomberg and Reuters and everybody,
Gina Cohen: wrote, yes, we're going to resume exports, but then he had to um provide further details that that does not mean that Leviathan and Karish will be back online and immediately.
Gina Cohen: And he's got to get the the the permission from the IDF, the Israel Defense Forces, the security establishment, that it is safe to put them back online. For now, they are not back online, um but I just found out that a few minutes ago, a tiny volume of gas has been sent to Egypt.
Gina Cohen: um Negligible volumes of gas has been sent to Egypt. Not to Egypt, to Jordan. Negligible negible volumes of gas has been sent to Jordan. and The reason we can do this is, again, because in the daytime, we have a lot of solar...
Gina Cohen: solar um facilities online and it's not high consumption time during the daytime high consumption time is more towards the evening and so we're able we have a couple of hours of surplus and capacity so that surplus we're sending it to Jordan before Egypt because Jordan is in a bigger predicament than Egypt because they have no gas at all
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
lpaltiguzman: It's fascinating to see how integrated at the end, you know, those three countries are. um And it made me think a little bit about, you know, to a lesser extent, but like the European Union, when they can help each other, ah either with renewable or, you know, through the electricity grid or the gas pipeline grid. Very interesting.
lpaltiguzman: um And the Tamar field is still up and running. And this is how Israel is mostly now getting its gas, you know,
lpaltiguzman: It's guests.
Gina Cohen: Yes, so Tamar is ah producing just over 10 BCM a year. um Yes, one BCF a day, a bit over that. it's producing more than did on average last year. Israel consumes about 13 BCM a year.
Gina Cohen: So it's able to supply most of our needs, and but we're reducing consumption, increasing solar, um using more coal, using some diesel. So, of course, there was talk somebody said two days ago that Tamar was going to be shut also, but we have to keep one of the fields in introduction.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: It's ah be too disruptive if we close Tamar. Also, the reason why fields are closed, or why platforms are closed, is because if there's gas on the platform, there's a greater risk than if the platform is it's dry of any gas.
Gina Cohen: So that's the reason to close to close them down.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. And in terms of ah security risk, um Was it a tit for tat that Iran struck the Haifa refinery?
lpaltiguzman: Did it come before or after Israel hit the South Park's 14 block? Do you remember? and I'm just wondering if, you know, they had restrained, like in the first exchange of fires, like a few months before, they had kind of restrained themselves on heating energy energy infrastructure.
Gina Cohen: yes
Gina Cohen: no
lpaltiguzman: And this time around, it seems that it's less restrained regarding energy infrastructure.
Gina Cohen: Yes, it's after it was on Tuesday. It was after we we attacked the energy infrastructure. So whether it's sit for tat, yes, so it's good. I hadn't thought about it that way, but it is after we attacked to some of their processing facilities at the South Pass field.
Gina Cohen: And there's a bit of desperation from from the Iranians. um um Yes, it it has escalated because we did warn them that if they attack um population centers and civilians, that we would escalate to the the attacks.
Gina Cohen: But even when we do escalate the attack, we we warn people there to to to get out of the area where we're going to attack. When they attacked in Beersheba today, they attacked a major hospital in the south.
Gina Cohen: It was done explicitly to kill people. and So they have a different different kind of regime, different kind of culture than and than we have.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. And the other point regarding Egypt and Jordan is that, well, Jordan cannot receive LNG right now, but Egypt is is that because of the Houthi in Yemen and the avoidance of the Red Sea by all LNG tankers, Egypt cannot even get any LNG from Qatar or other places through this route.
lpaltiguzman: So it put them even at a more vulnerable place. I mean, for me, Egypt is...
Gina Cohen: Yes, I mean, yeah the whole Suez Canal has been a huge problem for the Egyptians.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, go ahead.
Gina Cohen: Their income from the Suez Canal fell about 62% in the last fiscal year. And indeed, the ships coming by the Suez Canal is and the Red Sea is a big problem. And so they're getting from from from America, from other countries, from from from Turkey, ships coming by Turkey and coming down towards towards towards Egypt.
Gina Cohen: Yes, they're limited in what they can get. so But they are able to get they are able to get shipments. ah Mostly their problem is with the infrastructure and the cost because the gas they're getting from Israel, until about 10 days ago, they were paying about $6 because the oil price was very low and it was linked to the oil price.
Gina Cohen: The oil price is about $73.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: So now they're paying about $7 an MMBTU, but gas that they're importing as LNG is at least double that price.
lpaltiguzman: yeah Yeah, absolutely. Egypt is one of the biggest losers, I think, in this whole situation also. um And turning now to what's next. um It's hard to tell to say right now you know where we're heading. We still don't know if the US will join the fight or not.
lpaltiguzman: we We don't know what's Israeli next move. And we don't know how Iran can respond to to you know the different scenarios. um if you know um If things escalate, um where do you think would be the biggest impact on the energy trade flows or infrastructure?
Gina Cohen: Well, I think we're really at a crossroads. I know the American embassy has moved most of its non-essential, potentially even some of its essential staff, out of the country. and They don't move essential people if it's not a if they don't think they're really de-risking the situation here. So there are it could totally escalate.
Gina Cohen: um from terms From the terms of energy, so the main impact is that we granted licenses to huge companies, SOCAR, BP, ENI, to do exploration in Israel.
Gina Cohen: Now, exploration in Israel is important, A, to make new discoveries, B, for international relations with Israel, C, for the exports, because there's a huge... group of opponents for us exporting to Egypt and Jordan saying we're exporting vital reserves.
Gina Cohen: But if we can attract huge major companies to come and do more exploration, then we're much safer exporting. So in October 2023, we got it. We granted license to an EPP Sokar.
Gina Cohen: Of course, they held off coming. But then ah two or three months ago, they they accepted the the the award of the licenses and were about to come. Now, with this last week, I'm sure that they're putting things on hold again. If companies are removing their staff from Israel, new companies are not going to come in.
Gina Cohen: So interestingly enough, the stock market here is doing amazingly well in the last three days.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, I saw that, like plus 3% or something. How do you explain that?
Gina Cohen: Because optimism that it's going to be better, because of the concern that Iran was a huge threat to us, and optimism that we're going to be able to live in much greater peace.
Gina Cohen: So if things move as we're hoping it is, and that it is for now, and if Trump intervenes and brings his B2 and his you know BBB bombs and and helps, or if through negotiations ah Iran totally yeah gives in,
Gina Cohen: um then from the energy point of view, will be much better than it was before. The companies will come, um more people want to invest, ah ah our reputation will have will have grown.
Gina Cohen: If things um get worse over the next few days, then of course, matters will be ah put on hold for for for for a certain time. And Egypt and Jordan will be big losers so before Israel.
Gina Cohen: But for Israel, it's very important.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: It's very important for us to uphold Jordan and Egypt. It's very important for us.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: We want to uphold our contracts and our neighbors. And what the contracts are, we're not going against the contracts, but the contracts have clauses that if there are no emergency, we can stop exporting. But we want to uphold the regimes and we want to uphold the livelihood there.
Gina Cohen: So yes, I can't predict what's going to happen, of course.
lpaltiguzman: ye Yeah.
Gina Cohen: and I'm optimistic. The stock market is optimistic.
lpaltiguzman: So it's, you know, Before October 7, 2023, we were already talking about a new Middle East. It has been delayed.
lpaltiguzman: Now we may see, you know, there are hopes for, again, ah new Middle East. And already several dominoes have fallen, right?
lpaltiguzman: Change of regime in Lebanon. I mean, kind of new paradigm. Same for Syria. That's... will also create new energy relationship in the regions and new alliances.
lpaltiguzman: There is one that people are discussing, which is between Qatar, Iraq, or Syria and Turkey. do you Do you follow that? And do you believe in this pipeline route?
Gina Cohen: No, it's not going to happen. Even even Qatar ah came out officially about two months ago saying they're not interested in such a pipeline. It's just talk. heard this talk. It doesn't come from them. And they're much more interested in selling their LNG. They're not going to make a pipeline you know via Syria and Qatar. i Nobody's going to be able to secure this pipeline.
Gina Cohen: you know they have a that they they they they They don't need this. They have huge projects of 50% more LNG coming online. They know the LNG market and they get good pricing, long term contracts, high prices.
Gina Cohen: And they've officially said that they're not interested in in this pipeline.
lpaltiguzman: The only reason why I'm paying attention to it, because we know that they are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. That's a big risk for their exports. That would be a diversification of markets also at a time where the LNG market is going to get flooded.
lpaltiguzman: And there is increasingly competition for market share. So for them, opening new markets in their region, who i mean, I could see the strategic thinking here.
Gina Cohen: Maybe over the last week with the threats again to the Straits of Hormuz, maybe they're rethinking it and ah going ah going back on what they said two months ago. But of course, ah if the Straits are shut down, it's a very small probability. If it happens, it's a huge impact.
Gina Cohen: But I presume that America can intervene and can cause them to be to be reopened. ah But indeed, Qatar is already worried. They're telling their ships not to go into the Straits of Hormuz until the very last minute.
Gina Cohen: and to wait on the outskirts and not to sort of ah procrastinate in the straits.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Gina Cohen: So yes, they're worried and maybe they will rethink a pipeline and diversification ah towards new markets, maybe and indeed.
lpaltiguzman: that could be That could be competition for the Isthmad gas.
Gina Cohen: Yes, look, East Med gas, ah it's a problem because again, also we have to get, to we to to to do and to do an onshore energy is very complicated here because there's little space and and And offshore FLNG is very expensive.
Gina Cohen: So the other option is the pipeline.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Gina Cohen: We're thinking of doing a pipeline to Europe. The only problem is, or the main problem is, is Europe. Europe needs to get off its high horse and agree to sign long-term contracts.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Gina Cohen: Even Azerbaijan is saying, you want to buy more gas from us, we have the gas, but you have to sign long-term contracts.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Gina Cohen: um So we could do the part. The other problem is Turkey. Turkey is ah another threat and... Because Turkey is ah saying that certain areas southwest of Cyprus belongs to them as their territorial waters or those of Libya.
Gina Cohen: um Yes, there are threats and opportunities and complications all over the all over the place.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, well, thank you so much, Gina, for making sense of all of those. ah We'll have you back because it's ah it's and a region that is moving very fast and we all need to filter the noise and analyze the situation and and think clearly about it. So thank you so much for sharing. ah Stay safe and and I hope there will be a ah happy ending for Israel soon enough.
Gina Cohen: Thank you very much. It only works because I share it with you because the discussion
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. yeah Thank you, Jenna. Bye-bye.
lpaltiguzman: This concludes our Energy Vista podcast episode that was recorded on June 19, 2025. This is Leslie Peltier-Guzman saying good day and good luck.
