Transcript
lpaltiguzman: Welcome to en Energy Vista, a podcast on energy issues, personal and professional trajectory, a podcast where we make experts great again, contribute actively to the public debate and policymaking around commodities, the geopolitics of energy, and trade.
lpaltiguzman: I'm your host, Leslie Pelti-Guzman. It's January 21st, 2026, and time for a new Energy Vista episode. Today, I wanted to tell you what keeps me up at night.
lpaltiguzman: As a parent, I worry about how history is being taught today. History is increasingly taught by activism-driven themes, picked ideologically instead of teaching history chronologically, which is less subject to bias.
lpaltiguzman: Classics are disappearing from literature to curricula, Fewer students are exposed to the foundational texts that i have shaped our society. And I also worry about how information is being consumed.
lpaltiguzman: Who is still reading the news to today? Real journalism, not sensational YouTube shorts. As a parent, all these worry me.
lpaltiguzman: But if I'm wearing my professional hat on, with my expertise on the intersection of energy, trade and geopolitics, my concerns take a different form.
lpaltiguzman: A few years ago, I strongly advocated for the US not to abort too soon its energy bonanza. I was worrying that the US, because of green activism and the push to become an electrostate or more based on renewables, that the US would shoot itself in the foot and um cease to be this ener energy superpower based on fossil fuels, notably shell gas, shell oil.
lpaltiguzman: This has been a huge competitive advantage for the US to have this amount of resources for its economy at home and abroad. And Washington has rightly used this advantage as a tool of diplomacy and trade.
lpaltiguzman: Now I worry that the US is shooting it's shooting itself in the foot by undermining its relations with key energy partners, notably Europe. there However, you know even if Europe is really freaking out right now, I think that the the reality is that the US cannot, I mean, Europe cannot do much in the short term.
lpaltiguzman: There has been an energy deal over the summer between the US and Europe. It remains to be seen if it's going to last, even even if like the trade flows are more important like on the than this paper deal.
lpaltiguzman: um So it was in any way a long shot, this deal, because of it was worth like $250 billion dollars that the Europe should import such amounts of energy.
lpaltiguzman: um But in any case, Europe has actually in 2025 imported a huge amount of LNG from the US, its highest on record, on record more than 100 million tons.
lpaltiguzman: So this shows a huge level of interdependency between Europe and the US. Europe needs US energy. It needs US shell to LNG cargoes to have a functioning economy.
lpaltiguzman: We all remember the shock to the system after the war in Ukraine started, Europe's economy completely suffered. Part of its industry had to shut down because of high record electricity prices and natural gas prices went to the roof, really impacting the competitiveness of Europe.
lpaltiguzman: So there is no way right now Europe ah can deco-bulb from the US. There is also the risk of falling into the political rhetoric trap.
lpaltiguzman: History will tell whether greenland whether the Greenland saga is a diversion, an imminent security threat, or a folly.
lpaltiguzman: Europe is freaking out. I said that, I will say it again, very very much panicking. On my end, for now, I focus on actions and data.
lpaltiguzman: And that should reassure Europe. Since coming into office, the US president has unleashed US s exports, notably LNG, by accelerating the permitting process, has really actually um promoted low energy prices globally. um like Europe has benefited from lower oil prices, um and as well as LNG prices compared to the peak of ah
lpaltiguzman: you know, 2022 when the Ukraine war started. New export facilities have taken final investment decision and all this will eventually benefit Europe because it's more supply, abundant supply that will reach the market in the coming years and bring down prices.
lpaltiguzman: um But exports need a market. The US needs Europe. So that's another point. Like right now, even the US cannot decouple from Europe, um especially at a time when there is huge competition between LNG suppliers or even oil suppliers.
lpaltiguzman: Europe is a perfect market for the US. It's an attractive market and because of the distance. So if you have all those tankers, oil and gas tankers crossing the Atlantic, sometimes it's much more it makes much more economic sense
lpaltiguzman: than crossing the Panama Canal or the Cape of Good Hope. um So we need to think about routes too and what's economics for those exporters.
lpaltiguzman: NATO still exists. Whatever the rhetoric, the US still care for Europe and for peace. So what about the long term? In any case, Europe wanted to diversify. Europe should.
lpaltiguzman: and can diversify its energy sources, more nuclear, eventually more renewable, more autonomy. But we need to understand that Europe's electricity might also grow because of data centers, electrical vehicles, and the electrification in general of the economy.
lpaltiguzman: And this source of electricity for Europe needs to be competitive, affordable, and if possible, green. That's going to be a big challenge, especially if the amount of electricity increases.
lpaltiguzman: um But, you know, we can be optimistic here. Even Venezuelan gas could benefit Europe one day, or unleashing Iranian energy could also profit Europe.
lpaltiguzman: And even prior to Trump's return to the White House, ah Europe was already very keen in diversification, in diversifying its sources of energy. So let's continue.
lpaltiguzman: um As someone who is both European and American, I have always advocate advocated for strong transatlantic relations. um Democratic countries have inspired the rest of the world and helped keep keep it safe. I think that the world is in the better place when the US is the policeman of the world with some help of key allies that take their own responsibilities and share the burden.
lpaltiguzman: um And I think you know it's a good idea to have more commitment from Europeans for their NATO ah military spending, um for example. So these are great developments.
lpaltiguzman: And I like the concept of peace by strength. But the question remains, where does the strength stop? How far can economic leverage go, especially with allies?
lpaltiguzman: And is the US abusing its geoeconomic might? That's it for today. Thank you for listening. And um um well I'll be back with a guest very soon. so stay tuned. And this is Leslie Peltie-Guzman. saying good day and good luck.
