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EPISODE 21: FREE AGENCY RECAP & ROOKIE PRIMER
52 Plays8 months ago
WE ARE BACK! And we are getting you caught up on all of the moves in a wild free agency period as well as get you acclimated to most of the key rookies ahead of the NFL draft that will likely be the names you're watching to see where they land!
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Transcript
Podcast Resurgence and NFL Draft Prep
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome to the non-stop fantasy weekly dynasty podcast. We are here with your hosts, Dave Reed, Ray Wilkinson, and Joey Gallo.
00:00:27
Speaker
Bad boys, how are we doing? It's good to hear that music again. We're back. We're ready to talk football.
00:00:38
Speaker
one week, one week in one day till the draft. We are so close. Yes, if you forgot the name, this is the NSFW Dynasty podcast. Been a little bit of a hiatus since the season ended, but we are back in full force and gearing up for the NFL draft. How was your guys' breaks from fantasy? I know we all need a little recoup after season end. You guys feeling all right?
00:01:01
Speaker
Yeah, it was good to have a little time off, reset. But, you know, a couple months away, now I'm ready to get back into it. And it's exciting. We have something to actually podcast about again. Yeah, you know, I usually take this as my like one little break from football in the year where I kind of the season ends and then I dive in fully on
00:01:28
Speaker
college basketball for a short period of time, and the second the national championship game ended the other night, I'm like, all right, baby. It's officially the start of football season again. That's right. Football season and the podcast is
NFL Free Agency Overview and Rookie Primer
00:01:42
Speaker
back. I know all our wives are super happy to know that we're committing so much time to this podcast again, but you know what? The people want it. We're giving the people what they want.
00:01:54
Speaker
Well, we got a hell of a pod for you. This one's probably going to go real long, but we're trying to make sure you guys are all ready for the NFL Draft and caught up on everything that happened in the free agency. So we're going to start off with the NFL free agency overview, kind of let you guys know.
00:02:09
Speaker
What uniforms every player is gonna be wearing there's it was a good amount of movement that happened this offseason And then after that we're gonna get into a little bit of a rookie primer leading into the draft So when you start hearing some of these names called the NFL draft They won't be the first time you heard them and you're gonna actually be watching it Getting excited hoping that players land in certain spots makes the draft a little bit more fun when you know the guys in it but with that said guys got anything you want to jump into before this and
00:02:39
Speaker
Final words before we dive in?
Quarterback Movements in Free Agency
00:02:42
Speaker
Good luck with what I'm going to say. All right. Well, Joe, why don't you kick it off?
00:02:47
Speaker
So yeah, we're going to start off with free agency and the quarterback position. So I'm going to give a rundown of the major moves at the quarterback position, and then maybe we'll pass it around and get some thoughts from three of us. So obviously the biggest name, Kirk Cousins, moving to Atlanta, which is ideal for
00:03:12
Speaker
Everyone. My Dynasty team and many others. Baker Mayfield staying in Tampa Bay. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields both joining the Steelers. Sam Darnold to Minnesota would be interesting to see if their plan is actually to move forward with him as the starting quarterback or if that's just if everything else falls through then at least we have somebody. Gardner Minshew to the Raiders.
00:03:38
Speaker
and Jacoby Beef-Per-Set back to the New England Patriots. By way of trade, Sam Howell to Seattle, Mack Jones to Jacksonville, Kenny Pickett to the Eagles, and my favorite Desmond Ritter to the Arizona Cardinals. I didn't know if you were going to actually read that last one, Joe. Yeah.
00:04:05
Speaker
I mean, and what's crazy is that, uh, Kylan Murray is oft injured and I'm like nearly certain that we'll be seeing Desmond Ritter throwing the ball to likely Marvin Harrison Jr. at some point this year. So that'll be fun. Um, so yeah, I mean, my biggest takeaway, obviously, Kirk Cousins, I, you know, like my, it's, it's amazing what he does to the value of Drake London, um, in one league that we're in.
00:04:34
Speaker
you have like one, uh, it's like a three keeper league and, and like one of the three keepers, you kind of like lock in as a guarantee. And then the other two get randomly selected out of like a lottery, you know, I'm an eight, three guys. And I have Justin Jefferson and he's been my, my like locked in keeper for the last two years. And I thought would be my locked in keeper for, I don't know how, like the foreseeable future. I also have Drake London.
00:05:00
Speaker
And now I'm kind of thinking, do I want to take the chance of losing Drake London? Or do I want to lock in Drake London and take the chance of losing Justin Jefferson? And for a redraft type league, you never really know if Sam Donald's the one throwing the ball. And even when they move on from Donald, you never
Quarterback Trades and Fantasy Impacts
00:05:18
Speaker
really know who's going to be the one throwing the ball. So it's a pretty seismic shake up to fantasy values at a whole host of positions for a number of teams.
00:05:30
Speaker
What do you guys think? Yeah, I mean, your situation, Joe, I think is exactly what makes it crazy, right? You have Justin Jefferson, who's had Kirk for years and has been the number one wide receiver to have, but now he's got someone completely different throwing to him that I don't think is anywhere near Kirk's level.
00:05:51
Speaker
Um, and someone like Drake London now has Kirk, so it really switches the value on these players. And it's going to be interesting to see how Jefferson does without Kirk and how someone like London does with Kirk. I do think it's a pretty crazy contract, 180 million for four years for a 35 year old that just tore his Achilles. But you know, in the, in the league, you need that elite quarterback to take you to the next level. And Kirk definitely can be that guy. So I'm excited for him. I honestly hope it works out.
00:06:22
Speaker
Yeah, Atlanta didn't just get a quarterback. They got rid of Arthur Smith as well. So you're just ecstatic for any of the skilled position players in Atlanta. And they added a couple. We'll get into it. Other good complementary pieces of the wide receiver group as well in Atlanta. A couple other names. I actually, the Baker Mayfield getting the bag from Tampa, I thought was pretty good. I got 100 mil over three years.
00:06:48
Speaker
But they made the playoffs. He looked pretty solid there. And a little spoiler when we get to wide receivers, but Mike Evans also ended up staying there. So they had great success last year. Sometimes there's a lot of shifting. And you're always like, how does the team get better or worse? It's also good to get rid of this question mark. What's going to happen to Mike Williams going forward? Hopefully more of the same. He has the same situation. And then Rashad White also in Dynasty, he caught a ton of passes, looked great last year.
00:07:17
Speaker
was a top 10 running back, I believe. It's because Baker was checking it down and he's scared. So like now that Baker's back in the fold there, you know, Tampa's offense should kind of be doing more of the same as they did last year. And the most interesting situation is in Pittsburgh, I think, between Russell and Fields. Both are washed in my opinion, but it's definitely
00:07:39
Speaker
It's curious how this is going to work out. I do think, in general, it helps the downfield catchers because Pickett kind of stunk, despite my bold prediction last year. But I think Russell Wilson throwing it down the pick-ins could actually provide a lot of value there. But I don't know where you guys fall in the field's Wilson dilemma. I think that Wilson, Russell Wilson, is very washed.
00:08:09
Speaker
I didn't fully agree with the lack of interest and the disrespect for Justin Fields in the trade market. I was kind of hoping that the Giants might be the ones going on him, especially at the very, very discounted price that he actually ended up being acquired for by Pittsburgh. Um, I think that he'll ultimately win that job pretty quickly. And Russ's contract is only for a year. I just kind of see.
00:08:38
Speaker
fields being the quarterback in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I think that he's a significant upgrade from anybody that they've had at the quarterback position for the last several seasons. And I don't know. I think if it was me, I wouldn't be totally, totally shocked if he just outright won the job at camp. Yeah. I mean, I think he'll win the job and I
00:09:07
Speaker
think what he went for is pretty crazy, but I can't say I fully agree with you. I've kind of been out on fields and I think I talked about it a lot on the podcast last season. I just don't see him as this quarterback that's going to take a team to the playoffs and really take you to the next level. So I don't know. I'm surprised that they're going with him. I do think he will win the job, like you said, but
00:09:37
Speaker
I don't know. I don't think he elevates that team at all. I think he'll win the job and lose a job at some point. I don't think he's good. Like I think he will start a game and I, and he, but he does all the time is he loses games and this is why the NFL wants nothing to do with him. You can't win games. He doesn't make good choices. He doesn't throw the ball while he's a greater running. He's a rusher. Yeah. He's a rusher. He's not a quarterback. And that's, I think the issue there. They're both, I think on their final year of a contract technically, because I think fields is on the last year versus a rookie deal. So.
00:10:06
Speaker
Uh, it'll be interested, but I mean, it was a low risk played by Steelers. So it made a ton of sense. I, and I grew at the sentiment, like the giants, like why not throw a six or fifth round? Just to say, um, I have low hopes, but I'm wrong all the time. So who knows? Um, but yeah, I think, I think, I think that the team around him is significantly better in Pittsburgh than it was in Chicago and Chicago won games. You know, I, I, I.
00:10:35
Speaker
I think that, I mean, I guess we'll have to see, but if Kenny Pickett, who I don't think is very good at all, I think that just feels a significant upgrade from Kenny Pickett, just in terms of like overall kind of like, just like, let's put fantasy aside, like just ability to like chance to give your team of winning a game.
00:11:02
Speaker
Well, it'll be tested though, because if Fields comes in and it's the first time Tomlin does not have a 500 or better record, then he's out of there. I don't say that much because you know it's not Tomlin. But moving over, Ryan, you want to hit us up with the running backs?
Running Back Moves in Free Agency
00:11:20
Speaker
All right, yeah, we have a long list here, a lot of movement.
00:11:24
Speaker
Uh, biggest one, obviously Saquon Barclay to Philly. I know we're definitely going to talk about that one with, uh, some giants fans on here. Uh, we had Josh Jacobs going to Green Bay. Derek Henry to Baltimore. Uh, you know, selfishly love that one and guy looks good in a Ravens uniform. So hopefully that works out. Looks terrifying. Yeah. Um, we got Austin Eckler who went to Washington. Tony Pollard went to the Titans.
00:11:54
Speaker
Joe Mixon went to Houston, another one I really like. Aaron Jones went to Minnesota. DeAndre Swift to Chicago. Singletary taking over for Barkley at the Giants. Gus Edwards went to the Chargers. Zach Moss went to the Bengals. Antonio Gibson went to New England.
00:12:18
Speaker
Foreman is on Cleveland, Madison is on Las Vegas, and J.K. Dobbins just went to the Chargers. We also had A.J. Dillon and Clyde's Edward Hellaire resign, and Zeke, Hunt, and Akers are still unsigned.
00:12:36
Speaker
And to be clear, that was re-signed. Re-signed, sorry. But yeah, so I need you to deal with the backers. Either one of them could design, and it probably wouldn't matter too much. Let's be real, yeah. We want them off our teams. They stick. But yeah, why don't we start with Barkley? I know the two of you got to be pretty heated over that one. Yeah, you know, I can't say I'm mine.
00:13:07
Speaker
I'm like, I'm surprisingly indifferent about it. I think that, yeah, I mean, screw it, right? Like I don't think he makes a huge difference for them. And I don't think that like seeing him go over to Philly and maybe have a modest amount of success will be a worse outcome than if, you know, the Giants had given him 37.75 million of their own dollars, which would have been a gargantuan mistake, like,
00:13:36
Speaker
I just think that, you know, I don't know. I can't remember the last time when investing in a high profile or, you know, like expensive running back, like really worked out for a team in terms of winning a championship. And I think this will be a similar situation for Philly. Barkley is a little lumbering. He looks like he's lost a step. I just, I don't think that
00:14:02
Speaker
chasing running back second contracts and third contracts is the way to winning in the NFL. So as much as it hurts to see him go to Philly, I actually think that this is a setback for them and a good thing for us. And I'm pretty happy with that. So yeah, that's my that's my glass half hole thing. I wouldn't say I'm happy because I have a Barkley jersey, which that's the only thing that kind of stinks is just a jersey thing. But in general, like
00:14:25
Speaker
I wanted Barkley to get the bag and I didn't not want the Johns to give him the bag, but he deserves it. Running backs get screwed all the time. They did get paid decently well this offseason, but he deserved to get paid. It's going to likely be his last real contract that he ever gets, so make sure he gets it. Although I don't like seeing good weapons go to my mortal enemy in the Eagles, but to Joe's point, I
00:14:52
Speaker
waste your cap. I don't know how the Eagles cap space works currently. I feel like Hertz has deferred like 50 years. It makes no sense to me, but waste more cash based on running backs. It's fine. I did not want to do that. We've gone down that road with a rookie because he was like 10 million a year as a rookie. Not for it anymore. Let's let's show up the rest of the hole. So it stinks. I will not have fun seeing him score touchdowns against the Giants, but you just know there'll be that revenge game narrative. But aside from that,
00:15:21
Speaker
I'll move on. I'm not like Tiki Barber where I'm going to get into Twitter battle with him. Yeah, I agree with both of you. I mean, I don't think you wanted to see the Giants resign them at that price, but obviously we're probably hoping he went somewhere else. But another big one I thought was Tony Pollard going to the Titans. Shocker that one. I think that's a shocker, especially that contract for
00:15:48
Speaker
A guy who they're already saying is likely going to be kind of in a one A, one B situation with Spears. He did thrive in that role with Zeke, but I just feel like you're paying a lot to just get a one A, one B type guy. You also didn't think the Titans were in the market for running back. Excuse me. That was where the shocker came from. Everyone has their predictions of where players are going to go. Titans were never a destination that anyone was thinking.
00:16:16
Speaker
and they were pretty early in the process now in Pollard. Yeah, and he profiles similarly as Tye J. Spears. It's just like it's a weird move. Pollard had a weirdly under-productive season last year in Dallas as the lead back. Didn't score very many touchdowns. Dallas was like very willing to move on and roll forward with,
00:16:44
Speaker
You know, Rico Dowdle and potentially a draft, like freshly drafted incoming rookie. I don't know. I don't love it. I think the market like overcorrected back too far in the other direction with a lot of these running back. Well, I mean, I guess you could say.
00:17:04
Speaker
You know, like, Barkley, 37.7 million is the big, big one. And Jacobs, I think even though it's 48 million over 40 years, it's not even anywhere close to like 48 million guaranteed. I don't know the very, very specific subject. I think there's like almost no guarantees after year one. Like hearing F here. Yeah, like they could basically like be out of that after the first year. Yeah. And which that was a shocker, that deal. Like, again, I don't think anyone was expecting
00:17:33
Speaker
Jacobs to really move. I think most people thought he'd stay there and not from the Packers. I do like the Packers overall. I think the Packers offense, it's going to be pretty filthy. Um, and they are just so young, but that was a pretty surprised one. I love, obviously, I know you mentioned it, Ryan, the Henry, the Baltimore ones, a great one, the mixing saga where he was getting cut by the mangles. And then last second was like, not nevermind. We're trading him to the Houston. And then after the trade, he gets a three year extension, um, which is great for mixing mixing has kind of been on this, like,
00:18:02
Speaker
What's he, is he going to lose a job or is he going to go for like, it feels like three years now. And he lands in arguably the best spot right now in one of the most potent offenses, whether it's just weapons galore. So I think that's a great spot for him. Yeah, great spot for him and great for Houston. Honestly, I've been a mix and fan, so I liked that one. And, you know, yeah, they should be contenders for sure with that offense that they have this year. So it'll be interesting to see how it works out. Yeah.
00:18:30
Speaker
I'll see if he has anything left on. I mean, I know he has something left, but we'll see what he has left. And honestly, sneaky one is Zach Moss replacing Mixon in Cincy. We'll get into it later if that is their only plan that they have. But Zach Moss was Chase Brown on the death chart. So it's not a lot of money committed to him. It's about as cheap as you can get for starting running back, $8 million over two years. But Zach Moss showed out last year that he could
00:18:59
Speaker
look pretty good. He is on the older side. I think he's 26 or something. But that is someone who I think all of us thought was dead, came back to life last year. And now he's getting potentially a starting role in a Joe Burrow led offense. So that's pretty surprising. Yeah, that was a big one. I mean, speaking of someone else we thought was dead, JK Dobbins just getting signed to the Chargers. That doesn't mean he's alive. Yeah, we'll see if he gets any actual playing time there.
00:19:29
Speaker
I was everywhere and I was like, he comes back for injury. Like I thought he was going to be alive last year. I guess how long he was alive for. Yeah. A quarter longer than Aaron Rodgers. And not to mention he, even the year before last, when he was back, he was running with that like weird, weird, like hobble. The vibes have been off with him for like three fucking seasons now. And I just, I know there's a little bit of excitement that he's on a team, but I,
00:19:58
Speaker
Conversely, I'm very excited about Gus Edwards, who is going to get a ton of volume, especially early in the season while Dobbins is still kind of on the puff and, you know, like I'm sure he's not even going to sniff the field until, you know, who knows what point in the season. So Gus Edwards in an offense is going to run the ball a ton with Jim Harbaugh, I think is a sneaky one.
00:20:25
Speaker
They're also like, oh, I should say lucky, but they're a high likelihood possibility to draft an earlier running back in the draft. So we'll see where that one shakes out to. But moving on to the wide receivers, I'll take this one if you guys don't mind.
Wide Receiver Movements and Contracts
00:20:44
Speaker
So a lot of moving parts here. Calvin Ridley got the bag and moved to Tennessee, which he didn't look excited to be there, but he's like, whatever, they're going to pay me. So he went there.
00:20:55
Speaker
Pittman I believe was initially franchise, but he eventually got an extension with Indianapolis Mike Evans as I alluded to earlier is sticking around with Tampa Bay on another two-year deal T Higgins is currently franchise tagged by Cincinnati So he's you know held prisoner and on the Bengals He looks like he wants to get out but he's stuck there on the tag Mike Williams actually got a decent one-year deal from New York Jets and
00:21:22
Speaker
Gabe Davis is heading to Jacksonville. Pretty much the downgrade from Ridley to Davis for Trevor Lawrence, but so be it. Darnell Mooney getting a bigger bag than Barkley from the Falcons, which this is, well, you know, football is broken somehow on the contracts, but yeah, he got 39 versus Barkley's 38 million over three years.
00:21:44
Speaker
Marques Brown got a one year deal with the Chiefs. Looks like it's a chance to win a championship and or raise his market value after this year. Curtis Samuel actually is a sneaky signing by the Bills over there in a three year deal, keeping his
00:22:01
Speaker
Fantasy value alive somehow. I feel like that's all he ever does. You think he's a waiver-wire guy. He just keeps finding a way to stay relevant. And Devonta Smith actually just recently got extended on a new three-year deal by the Eagles. So he'll be sticking around with Hertz for the next, I believe, four years, because I think they have a five-year, a fifth-year extension, and then three years after that. Then there were a couple of trades that also happened. Deontay Johnson got traded to the Carolina Panthers.
00:22:30
Speaker
So he'll just be soaking up a million targets in about the three to five yard range. I believe Jerry Judy got traded to Cleveland and then
00:22:39
Speaker
I don't know how this agent did this, but got a massive extension for 52 and a half million dollars over three years. He has no reason to be making that amount of money, but good for you, Judy. Stefan Diggs got traded to Houston, which was a massive trade for both parties. What does this mean for the bills? And just loading up on the CJ Shroud weapons. Keenan Allen was a surprise trade to Chicago. So earlier with Mike Wilenti was cut from the charges to the cap issues.
00:23:09
Speaker
Still cap issues. They wanted Keenown to take a pay cut. He did not want to. And then he got traded for fourth round pick to the Bears. So now the quarterback coming in there has another weapon to throw to. And a small one, but because we alluded to Ritter earlier, Ritter was traded to the cards, and the cards traded back to Atlanta, Rondell Moore. But what are some of the big names you guys would like to dive into? I feel like there's honestly a lot of interesting ones here.
00:23:39
Speaker
You know, Kevin Ridley obviously getting just a massive contract. It's way too much money for him. Pretty crazy to me. He didn't really show me anything crazy last year. Didn't play the year before that. I mean, now he has Will Levis throwing in the ball too. And although we make fun of Trevor Lawrence, I think he definitely was better than Will Levis. So it's a pretty crazy contract to me.
00:24:05
Speaker
Mike Williams, you mentioned getting a one-year deal with the Jets. Hopefully that one year is with Aaron Rodgers. If he can make it through a full season, maybe that pans out. And then you mentioned Judy, but Diggs obviously going to Houston. I just think that offense really is set up to be something special. And then the biggest surprise, I think, was just Keenan Allen all of a sudden heading to Chicago.
00:24:33
Speaker
I'm sure we'll talk about it later, but Justin Herbert just literally left in a desert with no one around him, which is an interesting strategy. Can I ask if you're listening? I'm sorry. Yeah. Yeah. It's rough. This is a plummet in value. All season could be cruel, guys. Just know that. For me, it's...
00:24:59
Speaker
Excitement about Michael Pittman, I think, that retaining him in Indianapolis was a net positive for his value versus the question mark up moving elsewhere. And curious to see what happens with Gabe Davis and Jacksonville. I'm curious if the disappearing act with him last year where he would hit one game and then goose the next game and then hit one game and then goose the next game,
00:25:27
Speaker
was a Gabe Davis thing, or that was more of just Bill's offense, Josh Allen. Calvin Ridley wasn't great last year. So I'm not 100% ready to say that he's going to be a net downgrade for the offense. I have Gabe Davis in the dynasty, and I'm a little warm about it. Frankly, I think I'm
00:25:55
Speaker
I feel like you're excited if you're a Gabe Davis owner, instead of him on the bills. Right. He has a chance to maybe be more featured there. I mean, even Diggs, the second half of the season, wasn't doing too much on the bills because that offense just runs through Josh Allen. But yeah, I mean, if I was a Davis owner, I'd be excited. And while we're on the bills, Curtis Samuel, I mean, it's
00:26:20
Speaker
They don't have great draft capital. Obviously we'll see if they try to make a move up or not, but it does seem like wide receivers going to be in need. They look to address in the draft. So maybe some of the guys that we talk about later, one of those guys will end up in Buffalo. And yeah, I mean, it's just, it'll be interesting to see if Buffalo does take one of those back end receivers, what it does to, um,
00:26:47
Speaker
to their dynasty value right like some of these guys that aren't really getting a ton of attention right now as a top five pick suddenly if they end up on the bills as the number one and number two option then that could be a big spike in value so we'll see what actually ends up happening with Buffalo's draft or if they're just gonna roll with Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid and Dalton Knott's. Dalton Knott's.
00:27:17
Speaker
I actually think Sneaky just because he's not viewed as super valuable right now in Dynasty, but Deontay Johnson is going to get a million targets. If you're in half-point per reception or point per reception, look at what Adam Phelan did last year. Deontay Johnson has the same ability to get open, and he's younger.
00:27:39
Speaker
think he could keep up a whole season of doing what Adam Thielen did last year. So again, it'll be gross watching it. You're not going to want to watch it. Not going to feel good. No, it's not going to feel good. Just put it in your flex and just be happy that you get the double digit points week after week. But it's going to come. Yeah.
00:27:57
Speaker
But quickly we'll run in not as much excitement on the tight end side, but there was a few names Dalton Schultz who actually Surprised last year not getting as big of a contract as you thought he would is reciting with the Texans and got a nice three-year deal So props to him and again that offense is looking real good
00:28:14
Speaker
Hunter Henry who had some spike touchdown weeks stick around with the Patriots again this year Jono Smith is a little interesting. He's going to the Dolphins Jono did have a couple long touchdown runs last year He's a little bit quicker and like you just know the Dolphins offense. It's all about speed I don't think he's gonna be a lot of value in going his way, but I
00:28:34
Speaker
He's probably good for one or two long touchdowns at some point this year, just good luck guessing when that is. And then Gosecki is leaving the, I believe it was on the pats, moving over to the Bengals now. We're, it's fun. I feel like we're always looking for the Bengals tied on the pop-up. So Gosecki is like that next one on board is like, oh, he's the,
00:28:55
Speaker
I don't know if they're going to really feature the title consistently, but Kiseki, he is one of the better talents that they've had there now. It's been a couple of years removed since he's really shown out, but he is a pretty athletic freak and pretty fast. So who knows, maybe he can have a resurgence in Cincinnati.
00:29:15
Speaker
I don't know if you guys have everything to say here, it's kind of gross, just dad heads. Yeah, nothing crazy. I mean, John Smith, if you own him, I think you're happy that he just got a deal because he was kind of dead in the water before last year, but nothing too crazy. I still think he's dead in the water. I would rather own what's his name, Durham Smith.
00:29:38
Speaker
No, you don't. I, I owned him last year as well. Trust me. It's my physical. Don't don't say it's my, your name. Um, anyway, uh, who do you guys think are some of the winners at a free agency?
Free Agency Winners and Losers
00:29:53
Speaker
The running backs. Yeah, I agree. They got paid. I mean, the Texans we've talked about that. I feel like in, in every section we mentioned a really big name player that's now on that offense. So.
00:30:05
Speaker
CJ Stroud and the Texans in general, a huge win so far. This is why it's so nice to have a rookie contract quarterback. You can just really run out the rest of your team. Yeah. Yeah. We talked about Atlanta. One thing we didn't hit on, it'll be interesting. I would say Kyle Pitts could be a winner. We'll see. I mean, he's not a loser, so thank you. He'll be a loser if he
00:30:32
Speaker
has another mediocre season and he's a hundred percent confirmed as a bust as opposed to just like a likely bust. Then it's his fault. Right now it's not his fault. I think if he doesn't hit this year, then it's his fault. Yeah. And then, I was going to say another one that I like and we haven't really got into the who the quarterback on the Bears is, but I think it's a worst kept secret that they're going to draft Caleb.
00:30:56
Speaker
Williams. And yeah, I mean, I don't think a rookie quarterback has ever came into a better situation with so many weapons. It's also not their pick. First of all, it's another team's pick. So that does help. But yeah, you're coming to a great situation where usually rookies are a really bad situation. So good to see there. Yeah, no, that's exactly what I was gonna say. But I was gonna what I was gonna say was,
00:31:20
Speaker
Acquiring Keenan Allen will be helpful for him and they're linked to Romo doomsday In the first round with that ninth pick that they have so it's a good situation that could Continue to get better for Caleb Williams. Yeah, I think that's a great point Dave Usually rookie QB has come in and it's just a terrible situation
00:31:43
Speaker
And Taylor Williams is already considered such a generational talent and now he's coming into actually a really good situation. Definitely could make a difference. Yeah, shouldn't have his.
00:31:58
Speaker
Hopefully as many grown pains as you'd see, but if again, if he does, it's on him. Um, but who do you think lost in free agency? Obviously Justin. He's got to be the biggest loser. Not only did he lose all his weapons, his coach, who's a great coach and will win games, does not like to throw the ball. Uh, he likes to run the ball and that's what, and we'll see what they do in the draft. If that dictates more of that style of offense, but.
00:32:25
Speaker
It'll be interesting because they pick at right before the Giants at five. They were candidate to trade down, but they could get potentially the Marvin Harrison there. But who knows? They could also just draft an old lineman there because they love to run. And that's what Jim Harbaugh loves to do. So we'll see what happens there. Yeah, I'll be absolutely positively devastated if they decide to replace Keenan Allen and Mike Williams with
00:32:52
Speaker
lique neighbors at five directly in front of the giants but it's i guess in the realm of possibility i don't know i mean i i don't think that's what their identity is going to be so i think that they're you're right they're probably going to draft offense joe waltz yeah i mean getting the best offensive lineman at the fifth pick is honestly pretty pretty solid that's great and frankly if if they do um you know ruin all my dreams and take neighbors at five then
00:33:21
Speaker
Maybe the Giants take Joe Alt and, you know, not get sacked, you know, 97 times this season. So we'll see. We stink at drafting a lineman. We went one out of like 10 over the last year. What was that again? There was one other loser. Oh yeah. Justin Jefferson, big time loser in terms of Dynasty Valley and Addison. Yeah. I mean, it's at least for right now, like temporarily. It's, it's a, it's a bummer.
00:33:50
Speaker
You know, like if you, um, I, I feel like, I dunno, I'm not, I'm not even really sure. I haven't checked in on the, on the dynasty startup rankings and you know, what it looks, what the situation looks like at the wide receiver position, but there's definitely more questions with him now than there were two months ago. So it's unfortunate. I also like, I think Jefferson like definitely takes a hit, but he's also like broadly. So he'll, he won't be terrible, but he won't, I mean,
00:34:20
Speaker
We've seen bad quarterback play really bring down elite talents in the past. It happens all the time, but like Jordan Addison, who looked like he could be like something, like something special. Like, I don't even think he's like wide receiver three this year. Like, I don't, like, it's a hard time starting him at all. He's almost like useless this year. Um, you're not going to drop him off. He's a young wide receiver, plenty of talent, but if Jefferson's going to struggle, Addison's number two and like,
00:34:48
Speaker
Was it nearly as high volume? I don't know what you're going to do with that guy this year. Last one, because they did nothing, it's just the Cowboys. A lot of their decision making, so we didn't really touch upon it, they didn't extend deck who wanted it. They're not going to and going to let them hit free agency next year.
00:35:08
Speaker
could leave I don't know I mean they're not gonna tag him or anything they're making sound like but that that's an interesting one seed CD lamb they're gonna extend them but they are they're dragging their feet right now and threatening potential holdout talks is speed thrown out there and they don't have a running back really they have a
00:35:28
Speaker
I think they just saw, was it Royce Freeman? And they also have, what is that little guy they drafted last year? They're running back rooms are jokes. Not Rico Dattle. No, not Rico Dattle. Deuce Vaughn. So it's pretty gross over there right now, which as a Giants fan, I actually don't mind to watch. Yeah. I feel like the one team we didn't even mention in any of the agent positions. So yeah.
00:35:56
Speaker
Yeah, and it feels like they're likely to draft a running back. They might even be like the first team in the second round. I think they will draft like Trey Benson or one of the top guys. And then all of a sudden, from a fantasy and dynasty perspective, we're talking about them again because they've got to. If they draft a running back in the second round, whoever that running back is, doesn't matter who, they will be a first round rookie draft pick easily. Yeah, high top five. Easily.
00:36:26
Speaker
Any other teams you think that are pretty interesting at all? Not truly a winner or a loser? The Cardinals, I like calling the Cardinals an interesting team, especially if they do end up with Marvin Harrison at the number four pick, which I really, really, really hope that they do. That would be nice.
Buffalo Bills' Future and Leveraging Josh Allen
00:36:51
Speaker
It's like so much hinges on whether or not that pick actually happens from a, from Kyler's like dynasty value perspective, where it could just go in like one of two directions. And, you know, I just kind of see his trajectory going significantly differently if they add a generational talent that wide receiver. So that's definitely one to pay close attention to. And for the likes of me and other Kyler Murray owners, just pray that it works out.
00:37:21
Speaker
Yeah. And then, you know, I'm interested in the bills, not just because I have Josh Allen, but, you know, I think there's been a lot of talk in them letting digs go. And if they're still contending or if they're kind of hitting reset, but Josh Allen really isn't as prime right now, I don't see how they can't make a move. So I'm interested to see what they do in the draft and what they do before the season starts, because you've got to think this is their shot to go for it. They can't.
00:37:51
Speaker
go too much longer and let Josh Allen get older and older, so it'll be interesting to see what they do. Yeah, they could either draft a wide receiver or there are two other wide receivers that are unhappy and a lot of trade rumors are going to float out there. One is Brennan Ayuth that we didn't mention before. He's on the last year of his contract and he wants an extension. Super, super not happy in San Francisco with the way those things are going. Could be all just posturing, but
00:38:19
Speaker
A lot of his names he floated out there a lot as a potential Individual to get traded and T Higgins as well. He was a franchise tag He was a lot again We weren't expecting to get tagged Initially the cat was actually a little bit higher than most people thought so that it gave the Bengals the additional cat room to Tag him so he wanted to be a free agent didn't get that opportunity, but he wants to
00:38:40
Speaker
He potentially gave trade in the last thing to call out, received rice. You've probably heard about this. He is an idiot when it comes to driving fast cars and highways. It was a major accident. There was definitely some injuries. I think maybe one person had sustained somewhat major injuries, but nothing like life threatening at all.
00:39:00
Speaker
uh thankfully but uh he did he's facing a number of felony counts they'll probably be pleaded down to a bit there is a lawyer uh who monitors a lot of fantasy players because of course that's something we need these days uh but drew davenport if you go on extra reddit uh he's breaking down the case he actually thinks he'll very rice will only miss one maybe two games um based on where things are uh again if you're
00:39:26
Speaker
a high profile talent. Usually, you get treated a little bit better, but based on this, he doesn't expect him to serve any jail time, nor does he expect the league to do anything major from a punishment standpoint. Again, just maybe one to two games when the season starts. So if you are trying to get received rice on the cheap, go for it. Just don't get in the car with him. I will never understand these NFL guys driving, even if it's not drinking related. It just doesn't make any sense.
00:39:57
Speaker
Yeah. And they get free Ubers everywhere, but whatever. That's what I'm saying. They never need to drive. I don't know. Maybe it was racing. Yeah, but it was like in the middle of the day. What's going on? Literally. I've seen fast at first. It's always at night. Unbelievable. But anyway, that was the free agency overview now with that.
00:40:20
Speaker
we are going to jump into our rookie primer.
Rookie Draft Prospects by Position
00:40:23
Speaker
And before we dive into each of these positions, I want to give you a quick overview of some of the positions that you can kind of keep in mind as we're going through. And you're doing your own research potentially at home, prepping for your own rookie drafts. So this year's QB class, it's actually one of the better classes we've had over the past couple of years. There is a super elite prospect that we've alluded to before in Caleb Williams. But there's a lot of depth as well with about four quarterbacks who could potentially go in the top five.
00:40:48
Speaker
And there's actually another two that people find pretty interesting that they think could maybe sneak into the first, but likely are day two picks usually in the second round. Running back is a bit underwhelming compared to previous years. There's no super elite talents. No one's going to get drafted in the first round. There should be a decent amount, a couple of day two picks, hopefully in round two. Day two is round two and round three for those at home listening.
00:41:17
Speaker
Again, knowing that we're overly excited about, but there definitely can be value found here and we'll see where people end up landing in their spots and what type of opportunities they get. Wide receiver is, this is where it really gets us going. We are excited about this class. It is probably the most elite class and exciting class that I've ever seen myself playing dynasty. There are three super high-end guys, one who is arguably the best prospect ever.
00:41:43
Speaker
And then the other two are actually very close and would be probably the best prospect in their draft class if it wasn't for this year, if they were in any other class, would be the number one. And there's also a ton of depth in this. There's some mock drafts have about seven wide receivers going in the first round. A little skeptical if that actually happens, but it just speaks to how much talent is truly in this class. So if you need wide receivers in your team, this is a great year for that. And tight end, there is one generational talent that gets thrown out a lot each year.
00:42:12
Speaker
But this guy, we've actually been waiting for I think three years now when some of his freshman year, we'll get into him later. If there's a cop for that, no one really to get excited about. There's a couple of guys who are interesting that could carve out roles that you may throw dark throws on later draft.
00:42:27
Speaker
But when you're going into it, those are some things to think about. But again, when we're diving into all these players, there are a couple of things to keep in mind when it comes to valuing players. The biggest one is draft capital. Draft capital is huge. Teams, as I mentioned, if they spend more on a player,
00:42:46
Speaker
a first round pick or even a day two pick which again I said is round two or three that means that that team is invested more in them they're going to give that player more opportunities to exceed they're gonna uh if they make mistakes they'll they'll give them additional chances but they're going to push themselves to get in there further
00:43:02
Speaker
First round picks also have a fifth round option. It's going to be a fifth year option that players connect teams can exercise on that player. So it gives them a little bit more job security as well. If you fall into a day three pick, which is rounds four to seven, the team isn't as invested in you. Even if you have a good rookie or second year, they can move on from you pretty.
00:43:21
Speaker
Pretty easily they're just the investments not there We've seen this happen, especially with running backs like gaming peers with fourth round pick moved on James Robinson wasn't even drafted. They moved on So if you don't have at least a one or day two capital and we'll get into this also with hit rates Usually teams are not gonna Spend give you too much leeway or spend too much time with you if you're not showing out any you guys have thoughts on that before moving to the other notes and
00:43:47
Speaker
Now let's do it. All right. Age matters is the next one. The younger, we've all gotten better with this, with the understanding age with, but the younger you are, obviously the more time you have before you hit a cliff. But it's also a key indicator of success. We'll get into this later for each position.
00:44:05
Speaker
breakouts typically happen from an age standpoint, but also when you're looking at these rookies, if they broke out earlier age when they were in college, that means that they were showing out because of talent when they were like 18, 19, going up against anyone up to their 20s. But if you're looking at a rookie prospect who's dominating in their super senior year and they're like 23, yeah, they're a man playing against boys. They should be showing out of the game.
00:44:29
Speaker
against them. So you got to take all those stats with a grain of salt. So age always matters when you're evaluating these rookies. And somewhat related to that, if you're looking into any Dynasty content, you'll see two key metrics that are very important. And I just want to give some context of them. First one is Dominator percentage. It's really just the percentage of overall offense that player
00:44:52
Speaker
provided to their college team when they were on there. And you want to see them get over that 20% mark. That's when you become a breakout. So the first time you go over that 20% dominator percentage, that's your breakout age. So the earlier you do that, the better. But then you want to see that grow. And if you ever get over 35% or close to 30%, that's a pretty elite. And that's where you see these prospects really show out and rise up in draft boards, because they were showing out. And their offense ran through these players in college.
00:45:22
Speaker
The last thing is the combine. We all watched it. It matters and it doesn't at the same time. Certain positions, it means more tight ends and running backs. You want to see more of those physical traits. You really want to see the speed and more importantly, you want to see that explosives, either broad jump in the vertical to show how explosive that player is. But when it comes to wide receiver, like you got to remember these
00:45:43
Speaker
Players are running in underwear. They're not running in pads. Sometimes the speed doesn't always translate one for one. Pukinukua was incredibly slow at the combine last year. It didn't matter. You see him on the field. He does great. But you also every year you see these guys who have blazing speeds and one guy this year actually broke the record on the 40. Super light. It doesn't always translate, though, to the field. But what that will do for wide receivers, even though it may not help his production on the floor,
00:46:10
Speaker
on the field, excuse me, it will potentially increase its draft capital, which I said in point number one, that is huge. So that is where the combine can actually be important, is increasing a player's draft capital. Now that I ran through all that housekeeping and you guys are super excited through it all, let's start diving into the positions.
00:46:30
Speaker
I don't have a good drop for this. So I'm just going to jump right into it. So the first one is quarterbacks. And so go into this real quick. I want to talk about some of the agent hit rates and get this from the fantasy footballers. They do a great job with the UDK, which is their ultimate draft kit.
00:46:49
Speaker
And they highlight some of the hit rate by round. So what round players get drafted in, the hit rate of them actually becoming a valuable resource. And what that means is they have a certain level of production and they stuck around for at least three years to break out by age and break up a season. So for quarterbacks,
00:47:06
Speaker
The hit rate by round, which means they had at least a season of 16 points per game. If quarterbacks drafted in the first round, have a hit rate of about 64%, second round 42%, and then after that, third round plus is combined for 6.7. So honestly, drafting quarterbacks in your rookie draft who are drafting the NFL draft after round two is not really a great likelihood of hitting percentage chance for you. So try to stick to those first two rounds.
00:47:36
Speaker
Breakout by age, most quarterbacks break out between the ages of 22 and 23, about 41%. And a good amount still keeps breaking out through age 26 with about 79% of quarterbacks breaking out before the turn 27. This becomes important because you'll see in this draft class, there's a couple of older prospects, some already who are 24, I believe. So they're already beyond that main breakout age.
00:48:00
Speaker
And then the breakout by season, 55% of quarterbacks break out through their second season with 77 through their fifth season, which is typically their rookie contract. So a couple of things just to keep in track, but where we're going through, kind of kind of tear these guys together.
Top Quarterback Prospects
00:48:14
Speaker
So the first guy, I'll say he's in tier zone. He's going to be the first pick is Caleb Williams out of USC. I don't know if you guys have some thoughts on him because I need a sip of water. Yeah, do it.
00:48:27
Speaker
You know, I think that the, uh, the cops to Patrick Mahomes are optimistic, right? Like that's obviously like the best case scenario. Like he, uh, like, I guess maybe the thing is for me, right? Like if you're gonna, if the cop is Patrick Mahomes, right? Like Patrick Mahomes like runs around a lot and creates a ton with his legs and has crazy arm and can make insane throws. And that's kind of the profile that Caleb had in college. But.
00:48:56
Speaker
still not like, I guess it's difference between like mobility and able to like run around and do things versus like actually being a running quarterback. So I think that, you know, like that's probably the difference. And that's probably what keeping Caleb from being like a smash number one pick in all formats, especially non super flex formats. I'm excited about Caleb.
00:49:25
Speaker
But I am tempering my excitement. I think there's a greater chance than people realize that he won't be as good as expectation. And maybe said this way, between Caleb and Marvin Harrison Jr., who are the two lead
00:49:52
Speaker
prospects at their position. I think there's a much higher likelihood that Caleb Williams busts than there is that Marvin Harrison busts. And that was going to be my comment of just, do we think the hype has almost gone a little too high? Because they're saying he doesn't have the biggest arm in the class or the best accuracy of all the prospects. And like Joe just said, he's not exactly a Russian quarterback.
00:50:18
Speaker
It's all about his creativity, which they're comparing to Patrick Mahomes, but there is a chance that that almost sort of becomes reckless in the NFL. Do you think it's almost gotten a little too much hype for him? I think a lot of the hype started last year, especially when he won the Heisman.
00:50:39
Speaker
We call it a down year, but it seemed like a regression year that a bit this year, he was playing a lot of hero ball this last year. And that's kind of where, this is where you're worried about him potentially in the NFL is that he tries to do too much. Um, but he does have a lot of skills and it's not that he doesn't have a big arm, but he's not the biggest in the class, but he can make every throw he can. And again, like Mahomes comps comes from that he extends plays, but he can throw from like weird angles and make throws at other
00:51:08
Speaker
players literally just can't do from that. So like he cuts his arm, like you see Mahomes always doing those like side on throws. He can do those types of moves and really get the balls to where it needs to be. He has the upside. I wouldn't call Mahomes. I don't think anyone should be comping Mahomes. But he has that upside, but I agree with Joe though. I see like you can easily see a downside case. Like we, and I feel like
00:51:31
Speaker
NFL misses on quarterbacks all the time. Think about how many 1st World quarterbacks and 1st World quarterbacks have been drafted. They bust all the time. I agree with Joe, where I personally, I would be going Marvin Harrison, unless I really needed a quarterback. Because I think Marvin Harrison's upside is higher, and his floor is significantly higher, where I could see Caleb flame out. But personally, I do think he's the clear cut QB 1. I'd be very clear there. He is the top two pick, in my opinion, in Super Flex drafts.
00:52:01
Speaker
So if everyone still thinks Mahomes is what's going to happen with Caleb Williams, I think that's too much. I don't think you should be having that type of expectation. But I don't know if you guys agree with me there. Yeah, I mean, I agree. He's definitely the best quarterback. He's the one you want, super flex, your drift, and him or Harrison. I just am saying, overall, he's really being heralded as this generational talent. And like Joe said, there is a case that that doesn't exactly happen.
00:52:29
Speaker
I also have run the wrong way a little bit with how we handled himself, but that's also, who knows if he feels great on the field, whatever, but he always, he already thinks he's in all star, which kind of drives me nuts. Yeah. No, I, I actually agree with that. And you know, like what exactly is, is the benchmark for like, you know, I mean, I guess we're talking about like a breakout being 16 fantasy points per game. Like.
00:52:58
Speaker
know by that metric right like Trevor Lawrence has had his has has like been a breakout star right like and he I think Trevor Lawrence has had like a relatively successful like NFL career so far right like he's not he's definitely going to have his job for many many years in the future he's a somewhat serviceable fantasy option you know more so two years ago than last year but like
00:53:23
Speaker
Overall, he's probably the last time we've had a quarterback prospect that was hyped as much as Caleb. And I would, I would like, I mean, it's all subjective, but for me personally, he's been a disappointment for me relative to what I thought he was going to be coming out of college. So, and that's even with him like, you know, having like a decent start to his career and actually like, you know, by what we would consider having a breakout, like actually having his breakout last year, two years ago.
00:53:52
Speaker
I know it's bright young was first last year too. And they trade people traded up not the same hype as Caleb, but like people thought he could extend plays as well. Um, and had like, Oh, creativity was a big part of his game. And yeah, that's not working out right now. Yeah. So I just think the NFL miss like, uh, the upside of like breaking into an elite quarterback is just so hard. I think is the way I want to frame this. Like people, like these guys could be great pros and that's really what you're hoping for.
00:54:23
Speaker
If you get like the other thing with becoming like a top five top seven talent There's already five or seven guys there like who's gonna Drop out so that you have to beat those guys out and it's hard to really see that path again I don't think you should ever expect a rookie to do that at least from a quarterback perspective I think the upside Caleb is he's has a good chance to have his job for at least five years and potentially a lot longer just coming into a good situation so like he has a
00:54:52
Speaker
To me, he also feels safer than all the other prospects because of that. He's going to have the capital and he's going to have all the weapons around him where the other guys are coming into a rougher situation. So I think that helps his case, but yeah, I would not be, I don't think it's a prudent situation to expect greatness right at a start. Yeah. He could be a better quarterback and a better NFL quarterback than he could be fantasy quarterback to start.
00:55:19
Speaker
Going to the next tier, there's another guy who has more fantasy upside than him. And that's in the next tier, we have Jayden Daniels, Drake May. So Jayden Daniels out of LSU, Drake May out of UNC. And I'll throw in JJ McCarthy, even though I think from a fan perspective, he's probably a notch below these guys. But this is like the next tranche of Indiana fellow draft, the players that you think are going to get drafted. They're the ones that could go anywhere from
00:55:45
Speaker
two to maybe fall to like 10, 11, but likely going to be top 10 picks. But Jaden Daniels, I'll quickly jump into him just because he has the most upside. He's, I believe, five years he played now. So he's an older prospect. He's 23.3 years old. And ASU for the first three years was not that great. Looked pretty bad, actually. But he came to LSU and
00:56:10
Speaker
Just like Joe Burrow when he came to LSU, saw his value skyrocket with the Heisman. And now he's potentially the second overall pick. We'll see where he officially ends up going. But he did have two first round wide receivers that he threw to. But this guy is an incredibly accurate deep ball thrower. And he's overall pretty good throwing everywhere, just not as much over the middle of the field. But the biggest reason why he has upside is this guy's got wheels. This guy is very mobile. Rushing is a huge part of his game.
00:56:39
Speaker
He does love to get crushed when he's running and get hit real hard. So we'll see how long that lasts, but this guy can throw and can run and has a ton of upside. He is again, a little bit older and you wonder what was going on at ASU, but he figured it out at LSU. And then Drake May is also at a UNC. I personally love this guy. I'm hoping the Giants somehow find a way to land him. He's younger by about a year and a half, 21.6 out of UNC, but he is like,
00:57:07
Speaker
the Justin Herbert like build. He's, he's a big strong rocket arm, uh, can handle the, uh, he's very mobile, can handle the pressure. Uh, so he's your prototypical when you build like, uh, or think of prototypical, uh, quarterback that you build in like a video game. It's kind of what Drake may looks like. Jake, Jay McCarthy just throw to him. He was on Michigan, uh, won the title game. Uh, he's the youngest, I believe all the, the prospects here. Uh, he didn't really throw a ton at Michigan.
00:57:35
Speaker
I still am a little bit skeptical on him, because I was never overly impressed when I watched him. But I will say, and I think this is where a lot of teams are getting excited, when it mattered or when things got hectic, he showed up. And he always seemed to make the right throw. He's willing to stick around in the pocket. And he did make some good tight throws then. But during the game, it was always pretty mundane. It was a run first offense. So maybe that was part of it. Kind of lulls you to sleep. But he also has the wheels too. He's not Jayden Daniels, but he definitely is rushing upside.
00:58:03
Speaker
I don't want to say Daniel Jones because he stinks. But when I think of the rushing aspect of the game, I think a lot about Daniel Jones with JJ McCarthy. But where do you guys land on these guys? Yeah, so high level thoughts on all of them. Daniels, I think, if his size is, if he learns how to get down and the size isn't a problem for him, I think he has tremendous upside. The way I think about him,
00:58:31
Speaker
kind of like frame it up is like last year we had Richardson Anthony Richardson out of Florida and Richardson just was so inaccurate as a passer and that was like the biggest thing and in the little we saw of him in the NFL it was that was still the thing like he just he doesn't throw the ball he doesn't throw a good ball he's
00:58:57
Speaker
Horrifically inaccurate, but he's but he's like a tank and he runs Daniels is like a smaller Anthony Richardson But he can actually throw so I you know I think there's more potential for him as a as a as a NFL quarterback maybe like a little RG 3 ish who RG 3 had struggled with injuries, but was very productive for that little you know time where he shined bright and and
00:59:24
Speaker
Ironically, in Washington, where Daniels is projected to land in a lot of mock drafts. Drake May, I'm a little bit out on. He reminds me a little too much of Daniel Jones, frankly. They're a similar height and weight, and they both came out of the ACC, which is like questionable from a football talent producing perspective.
00:59:53
Speaker
Yeah, like they both want to run a little bit like those like sneakily like surprise you with like they're like with their rushing upside which feel like it's kind of same thing with Jones right like a rush for 100 yards, but he is You know average at best that actually throwing the ball. So I'm a little bit out on Drake May and
01:00:14
Speaker
JJ, I mean, you know, I said to, I don't know who it was, like Adam probably, because we talked Michigan a lot, like, you know, like months ago, like, oh, you know, like, you know, if the Giants were to take a shot on JJ McCarthy with their, with their first pick of the second round, that would be like pretty cool, right? Like, I think that was kind of where I was thinking he would go. And I think that's probably around where he
01:00:41
Speaker
Probably should go based upon what we've seen of him in actual football games You know, I get it like the reason why I was into him as a potential like You know grab for the Giants in round two once upon a time before all this hype Was because like you look like he threw a good ball in college and like he said like in the big moments He made really clutch throws and but he was also behind him an all-world offensive line and he had a great rushing attack and he had a great offensive scheme and
01:01:11
Speaker
who knows how much of that was him. So it might work out, but the Giants trade up and end up with McCarthy. I don't know that I would love that. I don't want that. Yeah. And just to add to what Joe was saying about Jaden Daniels, I feel like he's almost the opposite of Caleb Williams in that
01:01:40
Speaker
he's going to give you some awesome fantasy stats, and he's a quarterback you'll want for a couple years from a fantasy perspective, but he's going to end up in a terrible situation and potentially not have that long of an actual NFL career. Whereas Caleb Williams, we already talked about, is going to end up with Keena Nown and DJ Moore and DeAndre Swift and end up in an awesome situation, might not give you that high upside from a fantasy perspective, but should be a good
01:02:07
Speaker
NFL quarterback and have a long career. So it's interesting when it comes to selecting one for your fantasy team, you know, the upside is different for both of them. Um, and then JJ McCarthy, as Joe talked about, it's just crazy how his draft stock has risen so much. And I don't know. I can't imagine that he should be going in potentially the top five when we just haven't seen that level of play from him, but he did.
01:02:36
Speaker
win a championship. So who knows? Maybe it will work out. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, I don't remember seeing a player's value go up so high after college season ended as JJ McCarthy happened. I do want to say one thing with the, uh, Anthony Richardson, uh, Jim Dan's gap, Anthony Richardson is 35 pounds heavier and significantly more athletic, but, uh, I digress. I just, I gotta fend my boys, man. I actually agree with that idea. Like if it, if it, if it was, uh,
01:03:07
Speaker
I'd rather have Anthony Richardson as my running back and I'd rather have. That's fine. Let's just say if you were drafted today, Dave, who are you taking Daniels or Richardson? Oh, easily Richardson. I think Richardson has far more upside. Um, but anyway, going to the next, uh, tier of guys, there's two guys that they're floated about. I actually would think it'd be a mistake to any team draft these guys in the first round, but
01:03:32
Speaker
because people are needy for quarterbacks and also because mock drafts always push up quarterbacks in their mock drafts no matter what. You see them in the first round sometimes. It's Michael Penix out of Washington who was also in the title game and lost to Michigan and Bo Nix out of Oregon by way of Auburn. Michael Penix, I don't love him as well. Like when you start diving into it, he looked great when you're watching the game. So you throw him bombs, but you also gotta realize he was throwing too
01:04:00
Speaker
a worldly talent and unbelievable contested catch wide receiver in Odunze. So, and you'll see some of this in his stats as well. So I don't think Penix was all that accurate all the time with Odunze. It was just Odunze was amazing at getting and adjusting to the ball, but the offense did respect Penix enough to give him the ball and throw it downfield. But when you start diving in, aside from the deep ball, he wasn't overly that actually accurate.
01:04:28
Speaker
He's not really a good rusher and he dealt with injuries like constantly. He's also super old. He's 23.9 years old. Again, that's almost 24 years old. I mentioned most breakouts happen before a player's 23 in this guy is 24. And he's already 24. And then Bo Nix, he's kind of the opposite of panics where he didn't really throw deep as much. He threw a lot of shorter passes. He was pretty accurate. He's actually older than panics. He's 24.1 years old.
01:04:55
Speaker
He used to be a guy that people were excited about for the NFL draft when he was in Auburn, but he never really pinned out, but he had a bit of a resurgence in Oregon and put up some pretty massive stats there. I think BONIX will be a decent pro. I think Avium personally more is like a higher level backup myself, but it's just kind of where I end up. But in general, I get really concerned about super, super old prospects, which both these guys are. Yeah.
01:05:26
Speaker
I think that sums it up well. I'm with you. I'm slightly higher on Bo Nix as an NFL prospect. I wouldn't be as surprised to see him come in and actually do something. He's got a big body. He runs. I mean, I know PENIX runs too, but I think Bo Nix overall had a little bit more solid of a total college career at Auburn and then in Oregon versus
01:05:55
Speaker
PENEX Indiana was pretty meh. And yeah, so overall, oh, next season for me. Yeah, I also, in general, the way NFL offenses run, you want to be able to throw in an intermediary aspect of the field, especially in the middle. So at the deep bowl, sexy, which is what PENEX throws, but that's not a high percentage throw. And that's not how you want to run your offense generally.
01:06:24
Speaker
So you want to see the guys to kind of throw, kind of slay in the middle of the field. Uh, PENIX was very bad there and BONIX through very short throws, but he's a little bit better in the middle of the field than PENIX did. So again, I personally think BONIX has a higher chance of being better than PENIX. Um, but yeah, neither one I'd be excited about, but PENIX, BONIX, I do think at the, he could, he could start games and I think he'd be okay, but I don't think he's getting like a pro bowler if you get BONIX.
01:06:51
Speaker
Uh, one other name just to keep an eye on, not going to get into it, but Spencer Redler out of South Carolina, uh, is interesting, but also like erratic. So we'll see what kind of happens there, but he is probably the next name that would pop up after these six. But those are the quarterbacks that you should be looking out for in the NFL draft, but Joe, take it away with the really sexy position.
Top Wide Receiver Prospects
01:07:15
Speaker
Yeah, so I'm gonna dig into the wide receivers. And with wide receivers, when we talk about approximate or average age of breakout, and for breakout with the wide receiver, we're talking about 11 fantasy points per game, and hanging around for a minimum of three years. When we talk about average hit rate by round, first round hit rate of about 50, first round wide receivers have a hit rate of about 56%.
01:07:45
Speaker
second round 40 percent, third round 24 percent, fourth round less than 10 percent. So really you kind of look at like Dave said earlier right like your first rounders day one your second and your third rounders day two and then anything beyond day two becomes a very low likelihood of
01:08:09
Speaker
of a hit, right? And then if you look breakout by season, 67% of breakouts are in the first two seasons. So, you know, for those like Jerry Judy, who just somehow secured the bag and, you know, others who, you know, we're still kind of holding on to hope for. Ballers mentioned Trail on Berks. He's one where, you know, like, you're, you're still kind of holding on to hope, but this, the odds are statistically
01:08:38
Speaker
Not in your favor of a breakout and you know, that's why this will be a big year for Quentin Johnson Johnston who? Disappointed in year one and if it doesn't happen for him this year, especially with the opportunity he's gonna have then yet The writing is most likely on the wall. But for this year's wide receivers I'm gonna talk about the top three guys is one tier but just kind of caveat that by saying obviously Marvin Harrison jr. Is
01:09:07
Speaker
the clear number one option at wide receiver 63209 he's young 21 and a half years old obviously out of Ohio State University from a body frame perspective tall and thin and athletic I did hear them comp him to AJ Green similarly you know he's
01:09:34
Speaker
just a ridiculous statistical prospect, had a ridiculous statistical career at Ohio State. And if you can, I think, and again, I'm going to, I think that this is, I'm gonna quote the Ballers Dynasty pod, but when we talked about that dominator percentage earlier of like yards plus touchdowns for the team, I'm pretty sure that his was,
01:10:03
Speaker
for Ohio State like in the mid 40s, like 40 something percent. Just like a really outrageous, yeah, I mean, contribution to their offense. He was, he was basically the offense.
01:10:18
Speaker
The other two wide receivers and then maybe we'll take a step back and kind of talk about these three guys holistically Malik neighbors out of LSU. Also a very, very strong and explosive wide receiver over the last if you kind of look at the last two years wide receiver classes, I think we kind of say like. Yeah, he would be the clear cut number one receiver of the last two years.
01:10:44
Speaker
His comp is, in a way, similar to LSU's Jamar Chase from a couple years ago. But also, it's interesting to say that one of the knocks on neighbors is that he takes the majority of his snaps from the slot, which was the yellow flag for
01:11:11
Speaker
Another former LSU wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, a couple of years back. So needless to say, I mean, I think that the way that these guys are moving around, like if you kind of look at a guy like Jefferson, who does move around the field quite a bit, seedy lamb bulge, we're saying takes about 50% of his snaps from the slot, but does move around to the outside too. I mean, at a certain point, right? Like being the ability to be functional from the slot.
01:11:39
Speaker
Also takes naps from the outside is more maybe of a good thing than a bad thing overall You know tested great at the cop at the compound and I think overall you know Very very exciting for me. I think I mentioned it a couple times or tried to mention a couple times earlier tried to like slip in comments, but
01:12:05
Speaker
I'm very much hoping that he ends up on the Giants. I'm already like planning on replacing my Saquon Barkley jersey with a elite neighbor's jersey. But we'll see how it actually works out. And then the last one in this top tier, Roma Dunes A, we talked about him a minute ago out of Washington. Another really strong prospect, another tall guy, another young guy, 21 years old, 212 pounds.
01:12:35
Speaker
in maybe slightly lower tier, depending on who you talk to relative to the top two guys. But, you know, still an incredible prospect, great against man zone and press. I think when we kind of think about wide receivers, a lot of the chatter over the last couple of years has been, you know, teams propensity to play more zone than man defense.
01:13:05
Speaker
Um, but I dunno, I view that as like pretty temporary. I, I can appreciate wanting to understand wanting to measure guys success in college against zone as a potential predictor for success in the NFL. But it's only a matter of time until, um, you know, the, the overall, like there's additional changes that, and you know, the league.
01:13:30
Speaker
Changes what type of defense are playing again, right? Like it's not the too high safety zone is not going to be the the forever perpetual defense and you know for Forevermore in NFL. So Those are the top three guys what are you interested in what you guys think thoughts would you kind of rank them in that same order? And how do you feel about these three?
01:13:54
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think all three are really top tier talent and would probably be the first wide receiver off the board in a lot of years. But, you know, this year they have Marvin Harrison Jr. in their draft. So he's going to be the first one off the board. I mean, there's not much else you can say about him. He's obviously considered a generational talent and showing everything that you want to see and someone you want on your team. So.
01:14:22
Speaker
The only thing I wanted to comment on, because I haven't dealt with some of these stats as much as you two have, but the hit rate by round in the first round at 56% seems low for wide receivers, because I feel like they're almost considered the safer picks in a round like that. I'm curious on your thoughts in terms of that, because really at 56%, some of these guys we're going to talk about are going to be bus.
01:14:52
Speaker
A lot of them are talked about as more top tier talent this year and it being sort of a crazy wide receiver draft class. Yeah, I mean, there are always buzz like Joe kind of mentioned a few Trill and Burks, Johan Dotson's looking that way. I mean, you go back to Avery Davies, Hayward Bay or whatever, there's misses all the time. Speed has been a big thing. I mean, you got Rugg or was it Ruggs, Henry Ruggs?
01:15:18
Speaker
It wasn't exactly a bust, but you know. Jerry, Jerry, Judy's a bussy. He was first round. There's tons of busts every single year too. So kind of what that does say is like, I, it's not always, he had court Davis and Mike just going down the list and thinking all the, like the first round bust in my mind, especially when they come out of smaller schools, they, you see more quarterbacks, I think drafted earlier in the round and anyone after the first round.
01:15:43
Speaker
They're kind of like dark throws anyway, uh, where you actually do get a decent amount of guys later, like second round as well. So like to have 40% of the sec rounds, a decent hit rate, but it's a little bit better than a coin flip. Um, obviously guys drafted at 32 are still first round picks. Those guys may not be drafted at the same hit rate as these guys of Marvin Harrison neighbors and or doomsday who are all top 10. If you're in the top 10 that hit rates a little bit higher, I would imagine not a hundred percent. Cause I think Corey Davis.
01:16:11
Speaker
Was what fifth pick overall or something like that? but yeah, so It's still decent like the NFL gets things wrong all the time But to be a little bit that this is better than any game at the casino. I think it's a good way to say it Seems like it's harder to Scout the wide receiver position
01:16:35
Speaker
than it is to scout the running back position just based upon like that's kind of like what it seems like from a lot of guys that I listen to like and if you look at like you know we'll talk about the running backs next right running back hit rate by around first round eighty four percent hit rate it's like if you're just if like with a running back if all your
01:16:57
Speaker
scouting is watching them run with the football. It's almost like if you only had to scout wide receivers based upon their yards after the catch or they're running after the catch.
01:17:07
Speaker
But you don't, right? You have to scout their route running and who they're going up against from a defensive perspective in college makes a difference. You could put up insane numbers against a conference that has trash bags in the secondary and appear better than you are. Or you could have a quarterback that makes you appear or a scheme that makes you appear better than you are. Or you could just not be able to understand NFL
01:17:36
Speaker
route running and you know, I feel like there's so many different variables with wide receivers that don't exist with running backs that you know, it's just like adds a lot much more. Yeah, that's a great point. Yeah, you don't think about the fact that you know, you got to consider the quarterback that's throwing to them first off and that obviously can make a huge difference.
01:18:02
Speaker
Yeah, it's a great call by Joe calling that out. Because that does make this hard. And there's a guy, Matthew Hartman, who I do follow as well and got a lot of the stats from. He does a really good job of analyzing all these different aspects and putting it into context. And he's pretty accurate. He definitely has misses, but everyone does. But that is everything he meant, Joe just mentioned. It's like, who's throwing to them? Is it a good or bad quarterback?
01:18:28
Speaker
Who are they playing? Who's the level competition? Think about, these are college guys, and a lot of these guys are going to be like insurance salesmen in about a year. And he's the ones playing quarterback against these. So yeah, they're blowing up. There's a ton of gimmicky offenses in college sports, like the RPOs and everything. You'll see this when we get to some of the Texas wide receivers. That was a very gimmicky offense. There's one guy who was an ex-receiver, who was like your big, prototypical guy who
01:18:56
Speaker
didn't have much production because that's not where the ball was going to. It was about moving guys around. There's a lot of times if there's an elite physical talent, they just throw the ball behind in the backfield or on screen, just get the ball in his hands because he could just physically beat out these defenders. So stats look great. But then when you look at it, like he doesn't know how to run routes. He doesn't have nuance. He doesn't know how to stack defenders and get some separation.
01:19:22
Speaker
Um, so it is a very difficult thing. Like there's other, there's another guy we'll get into a little bit later as well, who's a first round potential pick who never technically broke out a little bit weird. Um, but it's because of the way that office, but so it is a very tricky thing to kind of dive into. Um, but I will say.
01:19:41
Speaker
All that outside, these top three guys to me seem like incredibly safe picks. I do have them ranked exactly how Joe said, Marvin Harrison, Neighbors, and Odunze, but I would be surprised if any one of these three truly failed. Obviously, situation and where they land can impact that a little bit, but in the rookie drafts, I think all three of these guys are going to be
01:20:04
Speaker
Depending on if it's not, if it's a second quarterback, these are the first three picks in your draft. If it's super flex, I think it's there. All three guys are top six worst seven picks, but I would be, I wouldn't be shocked to see these guys be still in super flex top four picks. Yeah. More than likely. Yeah. Um,
01:20:23
Speaker
We'll see. I mean, the only thing that I did want to just like throw out there that's interesting about Marvin Harrison is like, if he does end up in New England, does that potentially impact upside? It would be unfortunate, but you know, that's something to consider, right? When kind of talk about landing spot and that just such a not ideal landing spot for a pass catcher right now, but
01:20:49
Speaker
One thing I do want to just throw out too is neighbors of the three is the most explosive and like just so people can start mentally thinking this why. Marvin Harrison is like the perfect prospect basically does everything but neighbors has like the game breaking explosive speed and burst is like at the combine he'd be like
01:21:08
Speaker
his broad jump of like 10 foot nine and like vertical four two is great. That's kind of where the composite Jamar Chase comes through. And the doomsday is just the way I think about a doomsday, people get the compliment to Monte Adams. He just feels like he can take over games and be a possession receiver, but he's just so solid. There's like no real holes in his game. But I don't, I do think neighbors and Harrison Harrison have like a little bit higher ceiling than he does. In case you needed to think about how you order your rankings or how to think about the guys. That's how I view them at least.
01:21:39
Speaker
Yeah, and I mean, like, for me, a big part of it, too, is like the landing spot for neighbors in Odunze won't matter as well. You know, like, I wish that Odunze was ending up in a better situation than, you know, like Chicago with the rookie quarterback and two wide receiver ones ahead of him on the depth chart. So I, you know, like that's, that's a factor as well. But yeah,
01:22:09
Speaker
Guess we'll have to see how things shake out in the draft. But moving on to the next tier, I'm going to name a couple of guys in this tier. And it's basically the other noteworthy guys. Dave mentioned a couple of them. So first one, another LSU receiver, Brian Thomas Jr. Ran a very quick 40-yard dash time and had 17 touchdowns last year.
01:22:39
Speaker
One of the knocks against him is he is very Inclined to catch with his body right like the basket catch He's very big on the basket catch but overall, I mean look like that one thing that the ballers have kind of been like hammering on is that touchdowns
01:23:03
Speaker
end up being relatively sticky from college over into the pros and 17 touchdowns is not a shabby number for a wide receiver. So Brian Thomas, Jr. Next one, Lad McConkie out of Georgia, a little older, 22 and a half years old.
01:23:27
Speaker
You know, overall, somebody that I'm interested in, I think that, you know, perhaps his underutilization at Georgia was just a little bit more of the fact that they had a lot of other weapons to use. They ran the ball a lot. They had Brock Bowers in the offense. He's very good against man and zone. Obviously not great against press coverage because he's not a very, he's not a huge guy.
01:23:57
Speaker
Overall, depending on the landing spot, I think he is a definite someone to keep your eye on. Troy Franklin out of Oregon. Overall, very, very fast. Well, he appears fast on tape.
01:24:23
Speaker
or when you're watching him, but actually only ran, what did he run, a 4-4? 40? 4-4-1, yeah. But I think he was sick going into the combine, so that might make it right there. Yeah. Overall, not someone that I have a ton of conviction about, personally, but, you know,
01:24:51
Speaker
I'm sure that Dave, I'm sure that you have some conviction on Frank. I like him. I go in and out because he's small and not the smallest in the chat, but he's 176 pounds. So, Ladd McConoughly, I like, he's 186.
01:25:08
Speaker
That's kind of 180s kind of where I started drawing my mental line on this. Basically, I'm about 186, so if you're wider than me, I get worried about drafting you as a wide receiver. Wait till we get to this next guy that Joe's about to talk about. He's pushing Ryan's way. I'm catching up to him here.
01:25:30
Speaker
Yeah, so Ryan teased it. So the next guy on our list that we're going to bring up is Xavier Worthy. And I guess I'll talk to Xavier Worthy and I and I Mitchell together, both Texas wide receivers. Worthy, I mean, they're they're they're opposites in terms of physical profile. Worthy is
01:25:52
Speaker
511.165. So just incredibly small and lightweight, but, you know, set the record at the compound. That was me middle school. Yeah, seriously. Set the record at the compound, at the combine for the fastest 40 time ever, 4.2 140, which is pretty, pretty crazy. You know, he got a lot of utilization at Texas, but you know, like a lot of his utilization was,
01:26:21
Speaker
Kind of especially this past year behind the line of scrimmage stuff You know, I think he's the kind of guy where you know, I'm not really sure what the what the what the comp is gonna be right like is it is it is he gonna you know be someone like
01:26:39
Speaker
you know, Tyreek Hill or, you know, Deshaun Jackson or something like that, where it's just going to be like, you know, more boomer bust type place doesn't seem like he's got the body frame to be like a true possession receiver. So, yeah, a little bit of questions there. And then, like I mentioned, right, Adonai Mitchell, also out of Texas,
01:27:07
Speaker
Pretty much the complete opposite in terms of physical profile 205 pounds and six two for Mitchell He transferred from Georgia wasn't super utilized at Georgia, but overall You know had a good cop had a good combine and It feels like his His
01:27:33
Speaker
physical attributes and combine scores and what have you are would suggest that he is a great prospect but you know the fact that he was a little underutilized in college and kind of disappeared certain games and wasn't great with separation
01:27:57
Speaker
You know, those are a little bit of red flags and I think that's kind of there are people that are out on Mitchell for those reasons You know overall It's tough to say between the two Texas guys you know, like you Worthy obviously is the flash year and you know had the the significantly more successful college career but You know if you kind of think about NFL
01:28:28
Speaker
physical profile for what most wide receivers then you know Mitchell seems to profile a little bit more like somebody who has the the likelihood for a sustained career, so Yeah, so that's that's pretty much our tier two right so Tom Brian Thomas McConkey Troy Franklin we talked a little bit about and worthy and Mitchell what do you any other thoughts on those guys or we're ready to
01:28:53
Speaker
I just feel like with Worthy's size, the landing spot for him is going to be a little more important than others because if he ends up on a team that knows how to utilize him and has another wide receiver that's larger and complimentary to him, I could see him having some success. But if he ends up on a team where they're really relying as him to kind of break things open, I could see him struggling. But yeah, no, other than that, I think you summed it up pretty good.
01:29:20
Speaker
Yeah. The another talking about the, the miss rate on first rounders. Um, I get worried. I keep thinking of this one player of time. I think of Xavier worthy and it's Taven Austin, who was the eighth overall pick, uh, by the Rams back in the day. Um, he was one seven, he was a little heavier, but he was only five eight, but he was like super fast and like people love speed. Um, I do think Xavier worthy is the farm speed merchants go has more.
01:29:50
Speaker
uh, receiving chops. And many have in the past, he's not only a straight line runner, but same thing with Troy Franklin. When you get to that weight level, I just get concerned. Um, Troy Franklin, I can talk myself into it a bit more here and there. Maybe he can build out his frame a bit more. He has a lot of good underlying metrics, but I feel the safest with Brian Thomas Jr. In Lamba Conkey of that group. And then I probably.
01:30:16
Speaker
The next three, honestly, Troy Franklin, Xavier, and AD is going to come down to draft capital of Landing Spot. That's really what's going to, like, I can't rank them right now because that's really what's going to kind of align it for me. No, I'm with you. And then the last two guys we want to mention, this is our, like, I would say our last year, Xavier Laguette out of South Carolina.
Running Back Draft Potential
01:30:36
Speaker
I am out on him, personally. Same. I can't do it. I want to be in, but I can't. He's an older guy, and he had
01:30:45
Speaker
You know, five years of college, uh, you know, production first four years was, um, what's trash basically average at best and really just not good. He never eclipsed 170 yards in a season, not in a game. Yeah. And then last year he dominated at, you know, like, like Dave mentioned earlier, right? Like that, you know, men playing against boys type situation, right? Like he's 23 years old.
01:31:13
Speaker
It's a big guy, he's 220 pounds. Like I think this is a situation where he just kind of had a little bit of success because he was bigger and older and stronger than a lot of the DBs. And I don't necessarily love his upside, but again, you know, like where he gets drafted and what situation, you know, if there's significant capital invested that is not, you know, like going to be something you can look away from.
01:31:43
Speaker
You know, maybe he'll be worthwhile if the price is right, but my hopes aren't extremely high. And then the last one, Keon Coleman out of FSU. 6'3", 213, very young, almost 21 years old. But definitely some varying opinions on Coleman out there.
01:32:07
Speaker
He does have a bit of success against his own, which we mentioned earlier could be an indicator of success in the current NFL. But there's the possibility. I personally haven't dug in on the perception, but it does seem like in the show doc here, Dave did note that Matt Harmon does actually kind of see a path for Coleman to success.
01:32:37
Speaker
I'm curious if there's additional thoughts that he has on that one because... Yeah, he has a path, but I wouldn't mark it as a high likelihood.
01:32:51
Speaker
There's a, based on this profile, the only way he really can succeed is if he becomes what they call a big slot, which is kind of what Juju was. Like a lot of times when people think of slots, just a small little guy, but you can put a bigger player in the slot, kind of what CD Lamb was doing this year as well. He's playing a lot there. They can really thrive there. If he can get in that type of role, he could probably find some level of success. But if you're going to put them on the outside, it's not going to work. The guy just doesn't really have the receiving chops for that.
01:33:22
Speaker
Yeah, and the Liget thing, I agree. I get Trey Lomberk vibes with Liget from that. And I was a sucker for Trey Lomberk's another league.
01:33:32
Speaker
He just out-bodied people, but it was very gimmicky screen catches, and he was just bigger, stronger, and faster than the defense, but they're not good wide receivers, which I personally have grown to. I don't like contested catch guys. I don't like guys who only were contested catch guys anymore, because that means you can't separate. Separation to me is the biggest thing, like Garrett Wilson
01:33:58
Speaker
was a great separator in Traillands Berks. That should have been the key deciding factor there. And I feel like a lot of people, myself included, made that wrong choice at the pass. Both these guys, I have concerns with that ability, because I don't think they separate as much, and they rely too much on physical skills to get open in college. Yeah. Anything else that I want receivers? We want to add a couple other names that we have here. Jalen Polk out of Washington.
01:34:27
Speaker
It's somebody that we're familiar with just because Washington made a run to the college football championship games. So you would have seen him. Uh, you know, we watched a couple of Washington games and saw him out there and, you know, it's fine. I think it's going to be a good pro. I don't know. I think it'll be better for real NFL than dynasty and fantasy. Yeah. Uh, Jermaine Burton out of Bama, um,
01:34:53
Speaker
Apparently serious concerns about him as a person and as a locker room presence. And Dave mentioned when we were talking before we started recording, he was the one who like punched like a female fan who was like storming the field in Tennessee after Tennessee beat Alabama. But his average death of target in college
01:35:21
Speaker
or last year at Bama was like 20 something yards. So like he said, seems to be a phenomenal physical prospect. And if he can get his actual like head on straight, then maybe he's got a chance. But yeah, that remains to be seen. Yeah, couple of quick hitters to throw in.
01:35:42
Speaker
Ricky Pearsall, he's actually becoming a big sleeper for a lot of analysts. He actually is good running, but he looked up a highlight. He made the best catch in college football last year. He's out of control, one-handed. I'm not even going to try to describe it. Just go look it up. It's awesome. Malachi Corley is the small school wide receiver this year that people go for. He goes by yak king because he creates a lot of yards after catch.
01:36:08
Speaker
He's a fun guy to look in and watch his highlights as well. Be interested to see where he lands. And Roman Wilson is your resident senior game or senior bowl hype winner. He was out of Michigan. Everyone kept talking about him. That happens every year. There's always one senior bowl guy that everyone loves. And this year it's Roman Wilson. So not much to go into. It'd be interesting where these guys land as well. But yeah, a lot of names, I think, in the wide receiver world. So I think this is going to be what we're watching in the draft, right, guys?
01:36:39
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. All right. I'm going to dive into running backs real quick and I'm just going to keep it as one big tier, but just quick breakdown of running backs. Uh, the hit rate Joe alluded to first round. Unfortunately, none of them are going to be first rounders this year, but typically if you're just first round, you hit an 84% rate. And that means that you had 11 and a half points per game and you've been around in the leaf for at least three years for that hit rate.
01:37:04
Speaker
Second round's still pretty high, 48%. Third round, not bad, that's 38%. So second and third round, reminder, those are day two picks. But if you move out of day two, day two overall was 43%. But if you go into day three, it drops to 12%. So this is why making sure you have day one or day two capital for your running backs is so crucial. And all these guys, you'll see this.
01:37:27
Speaker
That's why I'm grouping all together. No analyst has the same order at all. No analyst has the same number one running back pick going on. Most people do lean Benson or Brooks, which I'll get into, but it varies. It's really got to depend on landing spot and draft capital. So grouping these all guys together, but the main names that we're keeping an eye on are trade Benson out of FSU. He's 21.7 years old. He's got a prototypical running back size of six foot to 16.
01:37:56
Speaker
Um, he's a, he has the RB one build. He's very explosive. He's a one cut runner, a great balance. He can catch the ball. He's a very solid pick. And if he gets go somewhere to like the, uh, the Cowboys again, this guy will be wheels up and be a top. There's always like a top was a top 12 and RB one who was a rookie every year. And I think like the top 24 has like three rookies every year. So this is a good, good chance that Trey Benson ends up in a position where he can kind of be a top running back next year.
01:38:25
Speaker
Then another guy is Jonathan Brooks out of Texas. Same build as Benson, he's about a year younger. And if it wasn't for recovering from an ACL injury that he tore in November, 2023, he would probably be the clear cut one, but he's recovering from an injury. He couldn't do any real testing and his rookie year could be inhibited a little bit, although they're saying he should be healthy by training camp in July.
01:38:51
Speaker
Um, but again, some people still already have him as the RB one, despite this injury. And he played behind Bijon Robinson and Roshan Johnson early in his career, but he showed up big time last year and he can also catch the ball. So he, this guy looks like the full complete back, just recovering from injury. Another guy is Braylon Allen out of Wisconsin. This is the youngest running back or a potential prospect we've ever had. He graduated high school a year early. So he is like super, super young. He's literally just 20 years old.
01:39:19
Speaker
Uh, he's huge though. He's six, one, two 35 pounds. He's a bruiser. Um, and, but he, and he doesn't have real true breakaway speed. So he, you're not going to get a lot of runs over 20 yards per carry, but excuse me, 20 yards in a carry, but he'll be chipping away. I kind of think of like a, a lighter version of Derek Henry, Derek Henry could break away, but how someone wears down on you on, on the defense, Braylon Allen seems to have that build.
01:39:44
Speaker
And he can catch a ball well enough. So again, this is another player depending on where he lands. If he gets enough work low, it could be pretty valuable or potentially get like a goal line role. Blake Corum. This guy is itty bitty and very old, not things I like out of my running back prospects. He's 5'8", 205 and is 23 and a half years old. He's also not very fast, which also I don't like seeing out of my running back prospects. So basically I don't really, I'm not super high on Blake Corum myself. He's out of Michigan. I'm sorry, Adam.
01:40:14
Speaker
Uh, he's a champion, but, um, he didn't, he doesn't really have, uh, it doesn't do anything special, but he also like, he was just solid everywhere around. But the one thing that he was very good at, and Joe alluded to this before is scoring touchdowns. And that is the stickiest stat, especially for running backs to success. Uh, he had 27 touchdowns alone last year and 18 the year before that. It's like crazy numbers there. So.
01:40:39
Speaker
Usually guys who score touchdowns running backs translate to NFL. And again, we'll see where he lands. Uh, he, he's probably just going to be like a super boring RB two. If I had to be there, no one I get excited about, but I'm sure he'll end up being useful. Um, I, but I personally, and this is my own personal, I haven't read it somewhere else. I get Devin Singletary vibes because Devin Singletary was another small, not fast running back. He scored a ton of touchdowns, uh, in college and again,
01:41:04
Speaker
Devin Singletary has been fine. He's not great. You don't want to, like, he's a good RB2 flex. Yeah, he's been solved. But like, you're not excited about having Devin Singletary on your team. And that's how I think Blake Horne is going to be. I think he's going to be fine. And that's it. Jalen Wright. Now this is where I get a sucker for a player who probably is going to flame out. But Jalen Wright out of Tennessee, he has a pretty good build at 5.11 to 10. But this guy is like the fast explosive back out of the group.
01:41:32
Speaker
He ran a 438-40, he's very explosive. He actually, when he ran his 40 time, the first five yards, his speed got up to over 15 miles per hour, which was faster than H-hand and Gibbs last year. So this guy gets fast and gets his top speed very, very quickly. So I think his, depending where he lands, if he gets in the right offensive scheme, this guy could actually be a huge home run hitter and have similar seasons like Gibbs and H-hand.
01:41:59
Speaker
There is a lot more downside to him. I think the other guys are safer and true all around backs, but Joan Wright is someone who I'm personally keeping more of an eye on. A few other names just throw out there. Ray Davis, he's more of a good story. Grew up homeless and kind of figured out a way. He went to three different schools, Temple, Vandy, Kentucky. Successful, but he's very old, 24 and a half year old. Bucky Irving out of Oregon, probably more Rick Pass catching third down roll. So we'll see where he lands up.
01:42:27
Speaker
Aldrich Esteme out of Notre Dame. He's kind of slow, but again, he's kind of a bigger back and he can handle the workload, but he's more of a linear runner. He has good enough vision, a good enough catcher. He could maybe end up in round three and then Marshall Lloyd out of USC. Solid speed, loves to get outside, but he's not really good with great vision. So he kind of just likes getting outside, he's not good between
01:42:54
Speaker
Uh, the tackle is being patient and he also has pretty poor ball securities, which is not what you want when you're in the NFL. But yeah, those are all the NFL guys, uh, running backs and honestly, they can be drafted in any order. So it's hard for me to really tear them. Um, but I don't know if you guys have different thoughts or other guys you're, you're really a fan of. Dave, you're not excited that Singletary is on the giant. It's fine. I'm excited that it's not a huge captain. Uh, I feel like they could have gotten cheaper though.
01:43:22
Speaker
Yeah, no, I mean, in terms of the rookies, like you said, I think it all really just depends on the draft capital. There's been talk that none of them even go in the second round. So, you know, if one or two creep into the second round and they end up in a good situation on a good team, then they could be a good rookie pick. But yeah, a lot is just up in the air in terms of their situation. So I think we kind of have to wait
01:43:49
Speaker
to really say too much about the order of these guys yeah I mean for me personally I like the idea of Jonathan Brooks just because it feels like there's maybe like a little untapped potential and upside there that there's maybe not with Benson not that there's not with Benson but the fact that Brooks like
01:44:15
Speaker
We haven't seen so much of him because he was behind B. John Robinson and because he was behind Rochon Johnson. And yeah, he's recovering from an ACL injury, but Trey Benson has already recovered from that same ACL injury. So, you know, it's like that's not as much of a death sentence. He's a year younger, a year and a half younger than Benson. Similar physical build. So between the two, I'm maybe a little more excited for Brooks.
01:44:46
Speaker
And you know the rest of the guys like I like Blake quarms the type of guy who I think you can you can draft in the mid rounds and He's a good pick for your actual NFL team You know like if the Giants drafted him I would be like pretty happy that they have what I think is like a
01:45:07
Speaker
Uh, like a seasoned, um, you know, it's definitely seasoned. Yeah. Like a seasoned guy who can score touchdowns, who has like decent vision and, you know, like there's something to be said for, you have a very successful college career one way or another. Again, it's like a, again, running behind like a very, very strong offensive line. But, you know, I think, I think he'll be a better NFL running back than he will be a fantasy running back. So yeah, I could see that.
01:45:38
Speaker
Well, moving on to tight ends. Not a long list in tight ends, but a quick break out of its stats here. Breakout season for tight ends is a lower point threshold of only 8 points per game.
Tight End Draft Prospects
01:46:09
Speaker
I myself too, I like in the fourth or fifth round of rookie drafts. I'm always picking like six and seventh round tight ends. So is a waste of this guy's never hit. Um, but the breakout by age, uh, 79 breakout before age 26. Uh, and actually a lot of them breakout, uh, about 32 breakout in age 25 alone. Um, so it takes a couple of years, but when we've said we've known this for a little bit that tight ends break out a little bit later, but if they're breaking out, if you have them and they're 27 or older.
01:46:13
Speaker
hit rate by round.
01:46:37
Speaker
You kind of know what they are already. In breakout by season, 61% breakout by the first three years. So you start seeing trends. And they can really, really break out later to be a top 10 tight end. But you start understanding what they are after three years. But this year, there's really only one tight end that people really care about. It's Brock Bowers out of Georgia. He's a little shorter than you want from a typical tight end. He's 6'3 at 243.
01:47:04
Speaker
This is everyone views as a generational tight tight end town. He's more of like a kind of a large wide receiver the way he moves and runs. Um, even as a freshman, so we've been waiting like three years for him to get into the draft. He was like the focal point of the Georgia offense, um, racking up yards after catch, uh, making wild catches always getting open.
01:47:26
Speaker
Um, I have a hard time seeing this guy not ultimately ending up being a top 10 tight end at some point. Uh, can he break the top three five? That's we'll see what happens there. That's a little bit hard to do consistently, but, uh, he has great hands. He has everything you're wanting out of the past catching tight end. So again, it's always risky. People are trying to potentially drafting Bowers at like as early as the fourth pick.
01:47:50
Speaker
That is team dependent and your flavor risk if you want to do that or not. I can't tell you yes or no. I could maybe see the upside of that. Like obviously getting a guy like Sam LaPorta this past year was great, but you didn't draft Sam LaPorta at the fourth pick. You drafted him in like the second round.
01:48:05
Speaker
We'll see where he ultimately ends up and then quickly two other names and I'll say if you guys have thoughts and tight ends is in general is Jatavian Sanders out of Texas another big-body tie down He's currently the favorite I believe slowly goes the second tight end off the board He was very productive at Texas as well and had a pretty good 40 time overall and then Bendis
01:48:28
Speaker
I can never get this guy's name. Ben Sinat, Bennett, I think is his name, at a K state, Kansas state. He's got great size. He is an unbelievable blocker. He actually played fullback as well for them. And he had unbelievable Raz, which is your relatively athletic score, which is like weight adjusted for your 40 time and your burst and your vertical and broad jump.
01:48:50
Speaker
And he was unbelievable at it. This guy is the one who's rising up and could be the second tight end drafted in this year's draft. He's becoming a favorite sleeper because he can block so well and he was a big focal point of the Kansas State offense this past year. But those are just two names. We'll see those in the rookie drafts. I would be surprised if anyone takes these guys with third round, but just don't want to keep in mind because they should get day two capital.
01:49:16
Speaker
Yeah, and I'm glad you brought up Sam Laporta,
Veteran Player Roles Post-Draft
01:49:18
Speaker
Dave, because I feel like he's almost helping Brock Bowers' hype a little bit. Not that I don't think Brock Bowers is a generally show talent. I do think he's really, really good and a tight end like him doesn't come around very often. But we saw what Laporta did last year as a rookie, and I think everyone's kind of expecting something similar from Bowers right off the bat.
01:49:42
Speaker
And I still think a lot is up in the air and just in terms of where he ends up, because I think there's a couple of different teams that have been mentioned, but one that has potentially been mentioned is the Jets. And hopefully he has Rogers for a full year throwing to him there. But it'll be interesting to see where he ends up. I just think the Laporta season last year has done a lot for his hype in terms of Dynasty.
01:50:09
Speaker
I think rookie tight ends in general are going to get overdrafted because of Laporta. Exactly, yeah. It's definitely made a big difference. Yeah, not a lot for me, except we talk about hit rate by around 80% tight ends drafted in the first round hit rate, which makes Kyle Pitt being in the 20% hurt. Maybe his rookie year might have counted, but he hasn't.
01:50:38
Speaker
He hasn't stuck around for three years though. I know. I don't like to have Kyle Pitts on whatever fantasy teams right now, so. I think Pitts is going to hit this year. I hope, but I feel pretty good. With that being said, we broke down the rookies. Hope you guys liked that. Hope that will make your draft viewing experience better. But with that being said, with these rookies coming in, that puts other veterans potentially on notice. So are there any veterans that you guys
01:51:06
Speaker
see that could potentially see a negative impact to their role because of the draft? Yeah, I mean, Curtis Samuel is an interesting one because the bills obviously have to do something. I mean, if the bills don't do much, if they don't make a big splash at wide receiver, then, you know, he'll you might have what you might be planning a huge role for Curtis Samuel. He's definitely want to keep an eye on and
01:51:33
Speaker
I'm not particularly high on Demir White, so it'll be interesting to see what Vegas does at the running back position. I mean, I already think that he's going to be little 1A, 1B with Alexander Madison. I don't think Alexander Madison is as cooked as
01:51:51
Speaker
People may suggest he's cooked. He's cooked.
Roster Moves Concerns and Dynasty Trade Targets
01:51:55
Speaker
He's well done. Selfishly because he's on my team. I'm going with Joe's side here. We forgot we put it in the oven. We put him in, got high, watched the movie, and checked it out. Are we sure that Damir White is good either? I don't know if White's good at all. Yeah. So that's where I'm still clinging on to the potential for
01:52:18
Speaker
value for Madison. Well, I think he's a good one in terms of if Vegas doesn't go RB in the draft and it's just Madison and Zemir White, then you are pumped. The Vikings cut Madison. He's cut like
01:52:33
Speaker
Yeah, but his only competition is Zemir White. You're feeling pretty good about that. He had no competition in Minnesota. He had some good games too, though. Yeah. Who was that? Ty Chandler. I was going to say Ty Johnson. Ty Johnson stinks. Come on, he cut him. They're like, get out of here. That was bad. Yeah, I agree.
01:52:58
Speaker
Justin Herbert, if they don't draft the wide receiver at five, or like they might trade back and still get one. If they don't draft the wide receiver in the first round, I'm like, what the hell are you doing? Chargers. And yeah, I mean, Devin Singletary, we've referenced him, but I think the Giants are potentially candidate to get a third round running back. I don't love it. I think I still think they could get a decent guy in the fourth round the way we kind of ran through that position.
01:53:27
Speaker
We'll see there for the I would prefer they did not draft running back. I agree. There's too many holes. Um, yeah, and like Singletary is fine. I mean, frankly, they need they need offensive line. They need defense. They need quarterback. They're there and they need wide receiver. They need like every other position that matters more than everything. Yeah. And then honestly, the Vikings pass catchers because depends on what quarterback they get if they
01:53:52
Speaker
If they get JJ McCarthy, like this year, I just don't think that's going to be a lot. Like who knows, in a couple of years that might be all right, but I don't think McCarthy is going to be able to support high end value for those guys. I'm skeptical of, I actually think Daniels would actually be pretty good there, just because he is pretty accurate and has the deep ball. So the Viking past catchers we already said are losers, but I think we'll know just how big of losers potentially after the draft. Or if they're even able to trade off, but they end up with something like a PENEX or a BONEX, yikes.
01:54:22
Speaker
But yeah, and with that, what about any trades or trade targets or fades that you had in Dynasty before or immediately after draft trying to get ahead of the market correcting? I think Christian Kirk is a good one because he's now the wide receiver one and I feel like he was kind of undervalued last year and wasn't talked about much, but really had a good season.
01:54:49
Speaker
and had a good season the year before that. So I feel like he's someone you could potentially target a little on the cheap, because he's not talked about in that elite tier of wide receivers. And I'm not saying he's elite, but he could potentially have a relatively elite season for you. Yeah. I mean, I like the idea of, are we only talking targets right now? We can do whatever you want.
01:55:16
Speaker
I feel like if I had any one of these running backs who just cashed in a good example of Joe Mixon, if I had Joe Mixon, I would be big, big, big time selling him right now. I think there was a time where it was not too long ago where I was debating between who I wanted to acquire on my Contending Dynasty team, Joe Mixon or Dalvin Cook.
01:55:41
Speaker
like the snap of a finger down cook is waiver wire fodder worthless and Joe Mixon just got like a three year deal. So I feel like if I'm, if I have one of those guys who've got a contract that, you know, uh, another good example, you know, Aaron Jones, if somebody wants to pay something for Aaron Jones or we talked about, uh,
01:56:04
Speaker
Josh Jacobs, I might be looking to move on from Jacobs to just try and capitalize on the promise of these guys and their contracts because not all of them are going to work. Yeah. Although on the alternatives, I do think this year because not, I don't think there'll be too many rookie running backs that we feel like we can rely on. And last year's rookie class, there aren't that many we can rely on.
01:56:30
Speaker
going to end up relying on some old running backs I feel like this year. But I don't think you have to pay up for it. I think you can get some cheaper running backs in Dynasty. It's not something you typically are targeting. It's like old running backs unless you're trying to go for a playoff push. If you can get them on the cheap, I think
01:56:47
Speaker
every team's gonna need them this year, especially in Dynasty, because everyone's looking for the youth and you can get them pretty cheap. Some gross targets that I'm looking at, Higgins is one guy that I look into. I've already had myself, I think Higgins is overvalued, but I think the market is starting to correct there and I think you can get them cheaper. I feel like there's a good chance he gets traded somewhere and he becomes a wider receiver one and you can probably potentially get ahead of it. So that's someone who if you can get a little bit discounted, I would do.
01:57:16
Speaker
But Will Leves, I hate Will Leves, but he has so many weapons here. He has no excuse to fail. So you might be able to get him cheap as a QB2. Bryce Young, I feel like you can get his QB4 pretty cheap at this point. But I feel like there, I don't think, I don't see a world where he's really good, but I could see a world where he's a decent QB2. So you might be able to get him pretty cheap.
01:57:40
Speaker
They're building up some offense around. They built up the defense. They built up the old line. They have a new coach in there. So maybe he improves. He was in a bad situation last year, we'll say. And then some spicy takes and fades. I'm personally fading AJ Brown. It just feels like weird vibes. And they just invest more in Devonta Smith. So I feel like AJ Brown might be not in Philadelphia in the long haul, we'll see. I don't know where he'll end up. And then Nico Collins, and really any Texas wide receiver, but Nico Collins has the most value.
01:58:11
Speaker
not because I don't believe in him, but because there's a risk that he's not on text the whole time. Also the fact that like
01:58:17
Speaker
A lot of people are pumped just to be part of that offense with CJ Strad. I just, I think it's going to be hard to predict or consistently count on any of them to be high end options week in and week out. I think they all will have high end weeks. I just don't know if it would be consistent. I think they'll take turns there. So I think you'd be able to cash in. I think he's more of like a high end two right now, maybe like mid year two. I think you could probably get really good value for them. So not someone who I think is going to fall off. I just think their value is higher than the production will be.
01:58:47
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's a great point with the Texans. We talked about them so much at the beginning just because they have basically a star at every position. But you can only score so many touchdowns every week.
Bold Predictions and Podcast Conclusion
01:58:58
Speaker
So some of those guys are definitely going to have roller coaster seasons. And with that, so we're going to close this out. Let's hear a bold prediction that you guys have for the draft to see if these payout or not, if anyone else is going to follow along with our bold predictions. But Ryan, what's your bold prediction?
01:59:16
Speaker
I mean, we mentioned it a little bit. I don't know if it's so much a bold prediction as a hope, but I'm hoping the bills trade up for an elite wide receiver. I just think they need to make a move now. They got Josh Allen in his prime. It seems to me like they're missing that elite wide receiver. I can't imagine Curtis Samuel can be your wide receiver one right now and you still have Super Bowl hopes. So I'm hoping they trade up for an elite wide receiver.
01:59:45
Speaker
Yeah, I'll jump in. I have one hope that I just want to throw out there, because I want to get in the universe, is that Marvin Harrison Jr. falls to the Giants, because the cards trade out of the fourth pick for a quarterback Navy team, and the charges go Joe Alt. So fingers crossed for that. But I don't think it's going to happen.
02:00:05
Speaker
But really my prediction is that both pennicks and nicks slip out of the second round actually so they're frequently draft mock drafted the first and at least in the second I I don't I think that's just a How mocks have a push-up quarterbacks as I mentioned, I think they're more if their own towns So I'm pushing them out in second round. What about you Joe? Yeah, I don't have a ton that balls. Honestly, I think I think that I think that a team that we're not expecting is
02:00:35
Speaker
to move up to take a quarterback is going to move up to take a quarterback. There's been a lot of smoke with Minnesota, but there are a lot of QB, Navy teams, not the least of which include the Giants. And I think you're going to see one of these teams kind of come out of nowhere and sneak in there, grab that number three or number four spot and draft a quarterback ahead of some of these other teams that we've been focusing our attention on.
02:01:04
Speaker
Love it. Love smokes screen season by the NFL teams. But guys, we just eclipsed the two hour mark. We did it. And with that, I want to thank all listeners for sticking with us. Maybe it was multiple listeners, but you got through it. Have an awesome NFL job. Thank you so much, guys.
02:01:41
Speaker
listening to another episode of the NSFW Dynasty podcast. Tune in next time!