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EPISODE 36: WEEK 5 PREP
33 Plays12 days ago
Joey & Dave catch you up on how week 4 went down and give you some buys & sells to make in dynasty prior to week 5 as well as a few sleepers you could throw into your lineups this week in a pinch! As always we also give you a couple parlays for the week that we're taking if you'd like to tail us as well!
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Transcript
00:00:00
Joey
Thank you.
00:00:04
David Reed
Thank you.
Introduction and Co-host Absence
00:00:25
David Reed
Welcome in to the and NSFW Dynasty podcast. I am your host, Dave Reed, and joined by only right now, the magnificent Joey Gallo. How are you doing, sir?
00:00:37
Joey
What's up, man? No Ryan this week. um What was his conflict? is it Is it worthwhile? I don't even remember what it was, but I'm sure it was worthwhile i think if he's not
00:00:45
David Reed
don't know. but Honestly, it's just...
Challenges in Scheduling
00:00:49
Joey
on the pod, but...
00:00:49
David Reed
all All of our lives are too complicated these days, and they they may even seem like trivial things, but having kids, multiple kids, jobs, but other families traveling, and like, yeah, could be million different things.
00:00:52
Joey
Yeah.
00:00:57
Joey
Yeah. Wives. Yeah.
00:01:02
David Reed
um We all, you know, and as you guys know, we sometimes we skip pods, sometimes we have to move around. It's because we all have conflicts in this.
00:01:09
Joey
Yeah.
00:01:09
David Reed
This is the only day we were able to get work.
00:01:10
Joey
Yeah. Before the, before the last two weeks we, we went like but one pod in over the course of maybe what nine months.
00:01:12
David Reed
We weren't old.
00:01:19
Joey
So we're not a model of consistency here.
00:01:19
David Reed
Yeah, it's like it's it's difficult, but but we do it for you still. We still try to carve out time to make it happen. Joe used to even do this during a Yankees playoff run, which that might be more important than his children.
00:01:30
Joey
Yeah.
00:01:32
David Reed
so
00:01:33
Joey
Elimination game. Fortunately, they put up a couple of runs right before we hit record. So hopefully, um that they can keep that cushion and I can split my attention for the next hour between football.
00:01:47
David Reed
You do look a little less tense right now, I will say that. But when you joined, very stressed. those Those extra runs give you a little lo ease.
00:01:53
Joey
We got some good fortune. Hopefully we can hang on.
00:01:57
David Reed
But this is a football podcast, not that.
00:02:01
Joey
Yeah, no baseball.
00:02:01
David Reed
Baseball's over anyway. i don't like What is this playoff baseball? It just doesn't exist. Season ended about like two weeks ago, was it? a week yeah I don't know, it's over. I don't care about baseball anymore now that Mets are out.
00:02:12
David Reed
Anyway. Back into the weekly highlights of week four.
Giants vs Chargers Game Recap
00:02:19
David Reed
Biggest thing we kind of alluded to last, Bob, but the New York Giants beat the undefeated Chargers and Jackson Dart looked very good.
00:02:29
David Reed
Let's go. Joe, how are you feeling?
00:02:31
Joey
Feeling good. um
00:02:36
Joey
He looked good. um The game plan was interesting. Obviously, he ran even more than I expected.
00:02:44
David Reed
Yeah.
00:02:44
Joey
um
00:02:44
David Reed
the The under yards actually were, was like the favorite bet in that. draw I think it lines started like 36, 37 and actually got bet under and that went way over.
00:02:52
Joey
ah yeah i um He probably needs to slide a hair earlier. Or slide at all, really.
00:03:03
Joey
There were several instances where he didn't slide at all.
00:03:04
David Reed
definitely do not use your throwing hand to stiff arm.
00:03:06
Joey
Yeah. Yeah.
00:03:07
David Reed
He almost like walk broke his shoulder on.
00:03:09
Joey
Yeah.
00:03:11
Joey
But overall, um had good command of the offense. I liked what what I saw. ah The team seemed like they had a little bit of pep. I mean, obviously, you know, we'll get to at some point the loss of Malik Nabors, which really cast a shadow on which what was an overall good day.
00:03:27
David Reed
Yes.
00:03:31
Joey
for the team but um i think i think we'll we'll learn a lot this week um on the road against a bad team you know first road start um this is a game they in theory should win but you know the money's coming in on the saints the saints have been playing pretty well the last couple weeks they probably should
00:03:48
David Reed
Here.
00:03:54
David Reed
Difference. Difference.
00:03:54
Joey
have won one of the last two weeks. So it's not going to be an easy one. So we'll we see. if If they decidedly win this one, then ah we'll be having a ah different conversation during next week's pod.
00:04:05
David Reed
Yeah, um I'm um'm feeling good. i though i'm a low I think the neighbor's injury is the reason why the line has shifted to the Saints being favored now. But I'm going all in. My survivor, I'm taking him because screw it.
00:04:19
David Reed
This is the only game. If I'm going to take the Giants, it's the only game of the year I'm take him.
00:04:20
Joey
Okay.
00:04:23
David Reed
So there's no money on the survivor. I probably wouldn't take him if there was, but it's all pride. But, yeah, I liked what I saw. he he just has – I know everyone talks about Oro farming these days, but he just has the right like confidence and swagger and and like leadership mentality.
00:04:44
David Reed
He believes in himself and he comes prepared. um But that leadership quality, it leads to like the rest of the team believing. like you You just said like you saw the pep and team. Everyone believed. Everyone was hyped. The so the defense finally...
00:04:56
David Reed
really stepping up because they believe that they the offense can get it done and the the offense kept the defense off the field for a while so like they really were believing and obviously the neighbors injuries stunk but like the first drive which was like the future of the giants it was three players it was dart it was scadaboo and it was neighbors that was it no one else touched the ball in that drive um so i'm very excited um
00:04:58
Joey
Yeah.
00:05:13
Joey
Yeah.
00:05:20
David Reed
But moving from one quarterback who got his first start, there's a new quarterback starting for their first time this week in
Cleveland's New Strategy
00:05:27
David Reed
Cleveland. And it's maybe not the one that everyone thought initially, but it's going to be Dylan Gabriel is getting the start after Flacco has been pretty terrible in getting benched, I think.
00:05:36
David Reed
I mean, expecting Flacco at this age to be that good, probably a pipe dream. But Gabriel is getting a start against who they play again now, the Vikings? The Vikings in London, I believe, actually.
00:05:47
Joey
Yeah, the London game.
00:05:49
David Reed
So, you know That's a tough pass defense to go against. I don't have high hopes for him. He's also probably the shortest player in the field. but What's your take in that situation?
00:06:00
Joey
Yeah, um the right move for sure. I mean, i was relying on Flacco as a filling quarterback and and in in a super flex.
00:06:11
Joey
uh, dynasty league where I lost burrow and just like literally knew my, my time with him in the starting lineup was coming to an end just to, he's, he's been very, very bad.
00:06:21
David Reed
He's been passed.
00:06:23
David Reed
Very good.
00:06:23
Joey
Um, so thank you, Joe.
00:06:25
Joey
It's been a good career and, uh, you've done some good things, especially for fantasy. The, even these last couple of years, just throwing the ball 40 times a game.
00:06:31
David Reed
Yeah.
00:06:33
Joey
It's been a delight, but, um, I have a good feeling about this week for the Browns. Um, I don't think the Vikings are very good. um At least right now, at least this version of the Vikings with Carson Wentz, they are on like um a third string center.
00:06:53
David Reed
Yeah.
00:06:53
Joey
ah They have like several injuries on the offensive line. um And yeah, ah I don't, I think that game is going to be horrific, but I was listening to another
00:07:07
David Reed
Over under 35 and a half right now. Jesus.
00:07:10
Joey
Yeah, yeah, and I took the under. I took the under. There was one straggling 36 and a half out there today on DraftKings, and I took it. um I feel like with these games with the totals that low, like they just, they can't possibly put it low enough to to like to truly account for how disgusting it's going to be.
00:07:24
David Reed
Yeah. There's only one time I think ever seen an over-under that low and I was like coughing in the under and hitting it. And it was like like a Seattle snow game where like I think there were 13 points to score that game.
00:07:35
Joey
Yeah.
00:07:36
David Reed
but yeah
00:07:37
Joey
No, no, no. So the thing I was going to say for this week alone, I was listening to Stucky earlier on Action Network, and he gave some pretty um strong numbers for Dylan Gabriel in his largely college career against the Blitz.
00:07:54
Joey
He's really, really good against the Blitz, and um the Vikings Blitz like second or third most in the league. So we'll see. Maybe it'll be a good week for the Browns.
00:08:05
Joey
um They're getting like three or four points too.
00:08:07
David Reed
Yeah.
00:08:07
Joey
And so I, you know, for what it's worth, think there's probably some value there.
00:08:11
David Reed
I actually, the defense is excellent.
00:08:12
Joey
Their defense is is pretty good too. So,
00:08:15
David Reed
And Gabriel was like very low on coming draft. I just didn't think he has like the skill be a true NFL quarterback. But the preseason play and the action he's gotten has been decent, actually.
00:08:25
David Reed
And I, I actually actually thought he's looked sharper than Sanders, to be honest, on on the field of what I've seen since they both put on Brown's jerseys. but So we'll see. It'll be an interesting environment. The London games, too, you'll never – it's always weird games overseas, so we'll see how that kind plays out.
00:08:42
David Reed
Another weird game.
Packers vs Cowboys Analysis
00:08:44
David Reed
It was great, but it just kind of left you feeling weird at the end of it was the Sunday night matchup the Packers-Cowboys. It was a 40-40 tie. Scorigami, first time that's ever happened.
00:08:55
David Reed
But – Yeah. ah I don't know what's going on with Packers. they I thought they had one of the best defenses. They apparently stink the last like couple weeks. they Giving up 40 points to the CD landless Cowboys was crazy.
00:09:09
David Reed
um But yeah, it was just a wild game. A lot of lot of stats to be had. My parlay, which we'll get to, missed by a few yards for two players, but knew that there would be a lot of scoring in this game. But What was your take coming out of that game? I know we all watched most of it. They had overtime. There was a lot of action. But, yeah, there was a lot of takeaways, a lot of fantasy points all around.
00:09:32
Joey
Yeah, I'm i'm um'm trying to not overreact to the last two weeks with um with Green Bay's defense. um I think that, I mean, 40 points is a lot, but on the road in Dallas, it's in like such an emotional game.
00:09:45
David Reed
40 points is a lot.
00:09:52
Joey
um yeah I just kind of feel like at a certain point there, like there was like so much ah so much of that was about you know, like the atmosphere and the environment and Micah.
00:10:03
David Reed
Mika.
00:10:06
Joey
Yeah. Like, I just kind of feel that, you know, like I, I like can't see how the Cowboys can possibly like match that type of energy again this week.
00:10:19
Joey
And it also just kind of feels like, you know, a lot of, I mean, Dak's been playing, Dak's been playing great.
00:10:24
David Reed
That's great, yeah.
00:10:25
Joey
So that's, that's why. and Javante Williams has been great too. Like, it's not like they're, Their offense has been bad.
00:10:31
David Reed
Yes.
00:10:33
Joey
the The defense, the Green Bay defense looked awesome for the for like first, like, what, 13 or 14 minutes of the game.
00:10:39
David Reed
Yeah. And, and, and then got destroyed.
00:10:40
Joey
And then they had yeah they had some misfortune. And, yeah, so I'm chalking that up to an emotional game. um I'm tossing it out as a data point for the Packers defense. And um the Cowboys defense, as we – I mean, like, we know they're bad. theyre They've been bad. They they looked they looked like – They had a couple like solid showings here or there in this game.
00:11:04
Joey
I think like a couple goal line stands. and you know like they were ah they They weren't terrible, but I think overall, I'm not changing my opinion on either of these two teams coming out of that game.
00:11:06
David Reed
Um,
00:11:16
David Reed
Yeah, I mean, um and every week, any of our same game parlay is the first game i'm looking at as a Cowboys game for the most part. of Their defense is just terrible, and the overs are going to hit on a lot of those.
00:11:29
David Reed
Pickens had a huge game. this is You got to finally see what it would look like as a wide receiver one, and he showed out in the first opportunity to do so, which was awesome to see. Ferguson is going to eat a ton of targets. May not always be efficient yards, but he's going to get a ton of ton of work.
00:11:43
David Reed
But I think I want to get the call out is last week's Ryan's sleeper day throughout was Romeo Dobbs, three touchdowns.
00:11:49
Joey
Yeah.
00:11:49
David Reed
So he's the he and he got like a like these were like goal line or red zone targets. too These weren't like deep shots. of i think Like when they're in the red zone, Dobbs is not a huge player, but he love is looking for him.
00:12:01
Joey
They're looking for him.
00:12:02
David Reed
Yeah, it's like first target read right to Dobbs.
00:12:02
Joey
It's weird, but yeah.
00:12:05
Joey
Yeah.
00:12:06
David Reed
So that that was a great call by Ryan.
00:12:06
Joey
Yeah.
00:12:08
David Reed
want to give the props to that. I think Ryan actually had him on his team as well. So it looked good. And Golden, it's funny because Wicks and Golden, I was just expecting more from And looked like there was the first catch by them.
00:12:19
David Reed
They were in the same spot. And I don't know who was supposed to go to, but Golden went and ripped it away no matter what. I'm still encouraged by Goldman. I think he, I mean, rookies, and we'll get into it a little bit later when we get into like the sell, buy sell, but I think we've gotten too spoiled with rookie wide receivers.
00:12:37
David Reed
And I think our patience is of on them is a little thin right now, but I think Goldman is showing some, he's showing a lot of flashes.
00:12:41
Joey
A little thin. Yeah. Okay.
00:12:46
David Reed
And I think later in the second season, second half of the season, he'll get a little bit more consistency there. um But I also want to jump to, The Eagles.
Eagles' Performance Review
00:12:57
David Reed
The Eagles won again. They beat the Bucs. It was actually two undefeated teams. The Bucs made it interesting at the end. Baker is a dog. And he had a ah good game, even though it started out ugly.
00:13:07
David Reed
He turned it into he almost was able to come back and win that game. But the Eagles did end up winning. they They cheated with it ah so put a fake tushbush that ran the outside.
00:13:17
Joey
Okay.
00:13:17
David Reed
But I really want to highlight that Jalen Hurts passed for zero passing yards in the second half. He finished the game with 130. He has only eclipsed like 130 or 150 once out of four games so far. I've actually been looking at his under. The line is like 180-something.
00:13:36
David Reed
Because his average in the season, up because you had one game with like 300. um yeah what like What is your take? like at The Bucs beat up a lot of injuries, still look great. I think those weapons work. Baker, I think shoot i i still think he's underrated, but Eagles, like what is your take on what's going on here? Because there's issues there.
00:13:53
Joey
I don't really know. um They've been fortunate. they They're a very yeah lucky 4-0 right now. And i'm not real I can't really put my finger on what it is because the passing offense has largely been bad, although it looked good last week, the week before last week three when it needed to.
00:14:14
Joey
um Barkley is getting a ton of volume, but he just can't seem to break the big one. this year like he was breaking them last year and I doesn' don't think it's an offensive line situation because the offensive line is not really like super banged up.
00:14:25
David Reed
Yeah.
00:14:32
Joey
um The defense has been fine. they have They have their they're good halves or moments and bad halves. um I would be a little concerned, frankly. it's It's, you know, like the vibes are not great.
00:14:46
Joey
For a 4-0 team, they have very like low vibes for a 4-0 team and, you know, like
00:14:46
David Reed
yeah
00:14:52
Joey
There's video of both of the wide receivers walking off the field like unhappy. um You know, like last week they won the game, but they scored on two of those little shovel passes to Dallas Goddard. and
00:15:04
David Reed
AJ Brown had to apologize for or clarify what his comments in the tweet, who they were not directed at, which are not directed at all those people.
00:15:11
Joey
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:15:14
David Reed
i don't really know what the point of that.
00:15:16
Joey
Yeah, obviously they were directed at it.
00:15:16
David Reed
to
00:15:17
Joey
Like, come on.
00:15:17
David Reed
What I had not to do with my quarterback, my manager.
00:15:18
Joey
Yeah.
00:15:19
David Reed
Okay. Then what was it?
00:15:22
Joey
Yeah.
00:15:22
David Reed
but He didn't tell us what it was.
00:15:23
David Reed
Yeah.
00:15:23
Joey
Yeah.
00:15:24
Joey
Yeah. So, yeah, it's not – but, I mean, look, you know, if you can go through, like, a tough patch of the season and come out of it 4-0, then it's obviously not a bad not not a bad thing.
00:15:25
David Reed
Yeah.
00:15:37
David Reed
Yeah. I don't
00:15:39
Joey
so And the Giants will be playing them two out of the next three weeks after this one. So, yeah.
00:15:44
David Reed
i'mt understand how they make matchups that close to each other. But, I mean, they've done this.
00:15:47
Joey
Yeah.
00:15:49
David Reed
The Eagles did this, what, like two years ago? Offense looked terrible for like the first like eight weeks, and they figured out.
00:15:52
Joey
yeah
00:15:54
David Reed
But, yeah. Well, moving on, want to catch everyone up quickly on some notable injuries that happened this past week.
Impact of Player Injuries
00:16:00
David Reed
Starting at QB. I'll say right now, starting at QB, Brock Purdy.
00:16:05
David Reed
Brock Purdy, it's currently Thursday night football is going on. We're in the third quarter.
00:16:08
Joey
Thank you.
00:16:08
David Reed
Brock Purdy has ruled out. Mike Jones is falling. But he has ah ah another toe injury. And he was missed two games before with turf toe. So maybe he re-aggravated It may be something just to keep an eye on. i would I wouldn't be surprised if this is something that popping up throughout the year.
00:16:23
David Reed
But also – At quarterback, Lamar Jackson has a hamstring injury. Today it actually came out that he's going to be ruled out for this week and probably next week too. They have a week seven bye, so you're going to be without Lamar for at least three weeks.
00:16:37
David Reed
That should give him enough time to come back from the hamstring injury. But for a player who's dynamic and uses legs as much as he does, that's not what you want to hear.
00:16:45
Joey
Thank you.
00:16:45
David Reed
He's still a great passer, but he the cheat code is his rushing. Running back, this was – Kind of came out of nowhere. Trey Benson hit the IR. It came out that – and I got in on this early in a couple of places that like Sunday or Monday that like maybe he was getting an MRI, something's wrong. And then all of sudden it's like maybe he's hurt, maybe he'll miss this week. And all sudden, boom, IR.
00:17:07
David Reed
He had surgeryular surgery on his meniscus. going to miss four to six weeks now is the estimate. So Amar DiMarcado and Michael Carter ah wheels up on those two. Those are guys that honestly in Dynasty were both available.
00:17:21
David Reed
which is pretty crazy that you don't really find two running backs. You're going get that big of a workload available. but Bucky Irving or is was spot on crutches and cast. Turns out he has a spring foot.
00:17:32
David Reed
He's going to miss this week. We'll see if it goes beyond this week, but we're going to see Syracuse legend Sean Tucker get back in. We'll talk about him later.
00:17:39
Joey
Yeah.
00:17:40
David Reed
Brilliant Allen has an MCL injury. It says it's pretty serious, actually, and he's probably going miss multiple weeks. I don't know if he's hit IR yet, but I don't think I'd rule that out. Wide receivers again and tonight's Thursday Night Football game, Ricky Pearsall and Juwan Jennings.
00:17:55
David Reed
Pearsall has like a knee injury that he aggravated. Juwan Jennings, everything's just hurt. Like, yeah, I think he has three injuries.
00:18:00
Joey
yeah
00:18:02
David Reed
The guy, don't know why he's hurt more and more. you didn't even play this week. I don't know why he's hurt again. But they're out tonight. The biggest one that hurts us the most is Malik Nabors towards ACL because the MetLife turf is the worst thing. And that just sucks because he is like
00:18:21
Joey
One of the most exciting players in the entire league, yeah.
00:18:21
David Reed
so I think players like everyone, regardless of the Giants family, he is the one of the most exciting players. And everyone knows it and loves it watching him. So that stinks, especially you only get to see if like two drives with Jackson Dart with him. So that kind of stinks.
00:18:37
David Reed
Tyree Kill. really disgusting, brutal injury, dislocated knee, which multiple ligament tears, it means it's ACL, could be multiple MCL, PCL, could be a ton of that, and and even more damage than that.
00:18:49
David Reed
This is like a seriously, potentially career-ending injury, especially because he's already 31, but even if he was younger, this is something that could end most players' careers. And it's there's a lot of arteries down there. Everything turned out to be okay, but that's like a dangerous injury for him. So hopefully he gets better, even though Don't love his character all the time.
00:19:09
David Reed
You don't wish that anyone. Cedric Tillman, a little lesser, but in the dynasty community, everyone knows him. And he was starting to last spots.
00:19:16
Joey
Thank you.
00:19:17
David Reed
Has a hamstring injury. He's out this week. That may open up slots for a guy named Isaiah Bond, who we'll talk about later as well. And then today tight end, Brock Bowers actually was downgraded to it, did not practice today after being limited yesterday.
00:19:32
David Reed
That's not what you want to see on a Thursday. you don't want to see people start practicing and then trending the wrong direction. That is a really bad sign. That means they probably aggravated something in practice and they're likely not going to play. I'm a Bowers owner. Now I'm going to have probably pivot. We'll see what happens on Friday, but it's not looking good.
00:19:51
Joey
Yeah.
00:19:51
David Reed
Yeah, Joe, have any thoughts on any of those injuries? You want to pop into the quick question?
00:19:54
Joey
No, I'll just throw out one thought. um i think I think the Tillman injury might be what might end up being a net positive in Cleveland. That plus um the change in quarterback.
00:20:09
David Reed
Yeah, Jared Judy's finally getting eaten.
00:20:09
Joey
um I have Harold Fannin in a couple places too, and I've been like, and do I want to hang out to Fannin? Do I not? i I think this might be like the opportunity.
00:20:20
Joey
the time where Fanon might kind of emerge a little bit as well. He might be worth a look as, i mean, the game's going to be disgusting, but you know, like I think he's, he's going to stand to benefit a bit there.
00:20:27
David Reed
yeah
00:20:31
David Reed
I don't disagree. I'm not sure about this week. I'm very hesitant because I think the game's going gross. It could happen.
00:20:36
Joey
Yeah.
00:20:37
David Reed
i just It's i'm like a coin flip, but which way but I do think going forward, it's a good look.
00:20:38
Joey
Yeah.
00:20:42
David Reed
cause i also I feel like rookie class players usually have a certain type of chemistry to each other too. so I feel like Shannon and Gabriel or even Santa, whoever ends up going there, if it's not Flack, I feel like there will be more chemistry there.
00:20:48
Joey
Yeah. Don Gabriel.
00:20:55
David Reed
so I would definitely be
00:20:56
Joey
Yeah.
00:20:57
David Reed
excited about Fannin's prospect moving forward.
Promising NFL Offenses
00:21:00
David Reed
Well, quick question, throw it out there.
00:21:02
Joey
Quick question.
00:21:03
David Reed
As you may, we're going to riff on this one, but obviously we know a lot of fantasy players value is kind of tied to those their team's offenses. So now that we've got about four weeks of data, what NFL team offenses are you most excited excited for for their fantasy options options based on the performance so far? And the one what offenses are you most disappointed about and concerned about the the options of those offenses?
00:21:31
Joey
Yeah. so um, excited. Um, I'll throw out,
00:21:41
Joey
and want to say the bears, but I'm not going to say the bears. I'll throw out Seattle.
00:21:45
David Reed
I excited for the better zone.
00:21:45
Joey
Seattle has, Seattle has pleasantly surprised me. ah Sam Donald has looked good.
00:21:47
David Reed
Yeah.
00:21:50
Joey
JSN has looked awesome. Both running backs have had opportunities and have largely looked good with their opportunities. Um, Their rookie wide receiver, Torrey Horton's been getting involved.
00:22:02
David Reed
Okay.
00:22:02
Joey
um So overall, ah I, they're, they're, they're a good team and they don't seem to have really, there was, there was, there were obvious concerns and a whole narrative in the off season about losing Gino and transitioning to Donald and what's Donald going to look like.
00:22:17
Joey
Donald looks good. I mean, he's not great, but he's, he's good.
00:22:20
David Reed
He looks better than Gino, actually.
00:22:22
Joey
Yeah. Yeah. So um i think there, and, and this, is a little bit of a a um you know spoiler alert li for later for one of my buy picks. It's actually on Seattle.
00:22:38
Joey
um So, yeah, I mean, I'm in on Seattle's offense. I really like what I see. So, yeah, that's going to be my my choice for who I'm feeling good about. How about you? who are you feeling good about?
00:22:50
David Reed
ah Yeah, I mean, the Bears, just the offense, um is look I'm very encouraged by it. The Colts, I mean, obviously we didn't know it was going to go with DJ. That was an offense think most people were a little bit lower on. But having not Anthony Richardson has been great for JT. JT looks like a monster this year, Jonathan.
00:23:12
David Reed
It was unbelievable, but then you've seen Warren dominating and Pittman getting resurgence because he's a quarterback that can hit him, so that's exciting to see. The Chargers just passing offense, too, because, again, that was something I think everyone went in thinking that Harbaugh was going to be a run offense, and they haven't seen Herbert really dominate. and He weren't sure what the weapons were going even look like for Herbert. You thought Ladd was like the only real good one and Keenan's old and huge wasn't going to be that great.
00:23:38
David Reed
And they didn't really tight end. But they got four Gadsden now. Ladd's like the most disappointing of these options now. But so that one's been surprising, but it's exciting to see, especially if you're Herbert or owner could you you love seeing that. And then.
00:23:51
David Reed
Finally, the Rams, I throw out there, just because came into the offseason with all the and worry injuries about Stafford, if they're going play, and then Puka slid down draft boards and everything because Puka might be like the number one asset right now. I think he's a wide receiver one. If I was redrawting down to see, he's dominating.
00:24:09
Joey
yeah
00:24:09
David Reed
So those are all ones that just want to call out that find are pretty exciting because that they have we had lower expectations for them going into the year, and they've really proved us wrong, and i think it's sustainable.
00:24:21
Joey
Yeah, and unfortunately, right, like, not to throw cold water on one of those, but the Chargers offensive line situation is a real bummer.
00:24:32
David Reed
Yeah, Joel got hurt.
00:24:33
Joey
And it, yeah, they've lost, like, yeah, they lost, they lost later in the, yeah, and then they lost all, and I think they're going to get one guy, but, like, they're they're down, like, three, like, top 30 PFF graded offensive linemen.
00:24:37
David Reed
Slater, too.
00:24:51
Joey
um And it's just like really, it's an unfortunate scene because Herbert is getting pressured. I mean, granted last week was the Giants and the Giants, that's like the one thing the defense can do is get pressure.
00:25:01
David Reed
Pressure time, yeah.
00:25:03
Joey
But, you know, we'll see. I'm i'm slightly, slightly concerned about them moving forward. We'll see.
00:25:08
David Reed
I know. Especially, too, if they had those guys, Hampton might be a top three running back. He's already looking like he could be top seven, top five this year.
00:25:12
Joey
Yeah. Yeah.
00:25:15
David Reed
He's dominating, and he's catching passes. If he had that offensive line go going into next year and they they get healthy, my God, he's going to dominate.
00:25:17
Joey
Yeah.
00:25:22
Joey
Yeah.
00:25:24
David Reed
But what about the bad side? What offenses have you concerned
00:25:26
Joey
Yeah. On the
Struggling NFL Offenses
00:25:28
Joey
bad side, um The Texans have been tough for me. um i i haven't liked what I've seen at all.
00:25:33
David Reed
Yeah.
00:25:36
Joey
um I have Nico Collins in one league where, in one redraft league where my team is it's three and one. It's a full point PPR. And like literally after every week of the season, I've i've had the thought of like, maybe I should try and move on from Nico and see if I can capitalize. And I really shouldn't like, you you shouldn't be having those type of thoughts about a wide receiver as good as him. And like, you know, ballers released their rest started to like put up rest of season rankings. And Nico was like four or five and like the rest of season wide receiver rankings. And I'm like, all right, you know, maybe I should pump the brakes a little bit, but the offense just hasn't looked good. The offensive line is terrible. Stroud's decision-making hasn't been great.
00:26:19
Joey
There's ah also like a lot, like sneaky, lot of guys that he throws the ball to.
00:26:23
David Reed
ye None of which are reliable.
00:26:23
Joey
And um yeah, like, you know, Woody Marks, like Marks looked great last week.
00:26:26
David Reed
That's all the schalts.
00:26:31
Joey
um And I bought in on him, you know, on the waiver wire this week, actually in that same league where I have Nico. So now I have two pieces of that offense in the same league, but, you know, I hope that they can,
00:26:45
Joey
they can get it together and show a little more, but it's just, that's been unfortunate and it kind of stinks because there's, a there's, there's, they, they, they have, ah they have a couple of guys there that should be, should be better. i mean, obviously not having Joe Mixon has, has kind of hurt, but but we'll see. Maybe if, if Woody Marks can, he's got a lot of juice, maybe he can do something and turn the offense around a little bit.
00:27:09
David Reed
Yeah. I mean, this was the offense I was saying coming into the season I was terrified of. I mentioned it. literally was just scared.
00:27:15
Joey
Okay.
00:27:16
David Reed
Nico, I think, will be fine enough, but I wanted nothing to do with this offense because the offense line, as you mentioned, terrible. It was terrible last year, and they keep trading. They just traded this past week, I think Cam Johnson, or forgot his name, but Cam Robinson, the offensive lineman, like for a seventh round or sixth round pick.
00:27:32
David Reed
why are the Texans trading with O-line and you guys have the worst O-line in the league? And CJ Stroud has never been good against pressure. Even back at Ohio State, when his his worst games was when he got pressured on.
00:27:44
David Reed
He can't handle it. He's not athletic. And outside of Nico Collins, his wide receivers are rookies. Like he's like, what's he going to throw to? And he has looked bad himself this year as well, but he's under pressure.
00:27:55
David Reed
So yeah, last year too.
00:27:56
Joey
Last year too. He's been bad for a while.
00:27:57
David Reed
So yeah, he He's taken a page of the Trevor Lawrence playbook there.
00:28:03
Joey
Yeah.
00:28:04
David Reed
But yeah, I'm worried about that offense for sure. Other ones are like, I just want to call Bengals. I think we can just throw out there. I'm just everyone. I think he's just got downgrade everyone. Like I think Jamar Chase at best is like a low end wide receiver too.
00:28:18
David Reed
Rest of the year, like I'm not in Dynasty. I'm not like selling him short because that's a, he's going to be wide receiver one dominant next year, but like redraft, There's a lot of guys that rather have than Jamar Chase.
00:28:30
David Reed
Titans are just straight-up ass. They are just – Cam Ward looks terrible.
00:28:32
Joey
okay
00:28:35
David Reed
The whole offense looks terrible. I do think Cam Ward at least has the right mental makeup and calling things out. But I think the offense, the coach, everything, the organization is just a disaster.
00:28:46
David Reed
um So I'm not expecting much out of that offense this year.
00:28:50
Joey
two two
00:28:50
David Reed
Eagles –
00:28:51
Joey
too tough Too tough at Minnesota, at Denver the last two weeks.
00:28:51
David Reed
yeah
00:28:56
David Reed
He just said Minnesota's not that good.
00:28:56
Joey
that's thats Their defense is pretty good, though.
00:28:59
David Reed
I'm joking. I'm joking.
Bengals and Titans Analysis
00:29:01
David Reed
I'm joking.
00:29:01
Joey
I think those are two tough ah road like two tough defenses to play on the road. So for whatever it's worth, um you know there might still be...
00:29:10
David Reed
he He's –
00:29:12
Joey
Their their defense is horrific.
00:29:14
David Reed
Yeah, I mean, the whole team is terrible. But they're – I haven't seen any – the only good play they had –
00:29:16
Joey
Yeah.
00:29:21
David Reed
was horrible play that ended up being okay with the across the body throw it down to Alec Adamite.
00:29:25
Joey
yeah
00:29:28
David Reed
Like, that should have been a horrible pick six. That was the only good play they've like, all year.
00:29:32
Joey
Oh, you're talking about the Titans. Sorry.
00:29:34
David Reed
The Titans, yeah.
00:29:35
Joey
I was talking about the Bengals. Sorry.
00:29:36
David Reed
Oh, no. Oh, yeah. Bengals are – yeah, Bengals are bad.
00:29:37
Joey
Sorry. you said the bang you you were you you You mentioned the Bengals before the Titans, right?
00:29:39
David Reed
Yeah.
00:29:42
Joey
You definitely said the Bengals.
00:29:42
David Reed
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
00:29:43
Joey
Okay.
00:29:43
David Reed
said Bengals are bad, and then I moved the Titans.
00:29:44
Joey
Sorry. Yeah.
00:29:45
David Reed
It's okay. But the Titans –
00:29:46
Joey
The Bengals are better than the Titans. I much prefer the Bengals' offense and weapons, even with Jake Browning, to anybody on the Titans.
00:29:50
David Reed
I think i think there i i think there will be better days for the Bengals, but I don't think they're going to be.
00:29:56
Joey
Yeah.
00:29:58
David Reed
I think you have to downgrade every value there. um And then the Eagles we already talked about, so I'll pass on that. But the the Cardinals, too, just kind of have not been as good as their record and everything. they just Obviously, we know the running back position got hurt. Kyler will always end up with enough rushing points to make his fantasy doc score look okay, but just not clicking right now. I don't feel good about that offense with the pieces in it right now.
00:30:25
Joey
Yeah.
00:30:26
David Reed
Any other calls you say? Panthers, I mean, Bryce looks real bad again. i found um i'm out on Bryce again.
00:30:32
Joey
Yeah.
00:30:33
David Reed
and
00:30:33
Joey
Unfortunately.
00:30:34
David Reed
Unfortunately, I'm out. Pennix has been up and down. I'm i'm still encouraged by Pennix because I think he'll throw it down. Field this past week was pretty good. 49ers, everyone's dead, but they're still showing out somehow. But I also wanted to say the regression fairies that everyone's saying James Cook and Baker Mayfield can keep up with what they did last year with the TDs.
00:30:51
David Reed
They're staying away. They are keeping it up. So we'll see what happens there. But With that said, we're gonna move into our next segment. Let's see if this ah this drop is a little louder, if it works. It's a long drop, so I apologize, but we'll get into it.
00:31:16
David Reed
But we do know, we're gonna tell you which stocks to be buying and selling in the Dynasty community.
00:31:22
Joey
Yep.
00:31:23
David Reed
Joe, you want to jump in first? Ryan obviously not here, but he did give us some of his picks. We'll talk about those as well. But Joe, don't you kick us off?
00:31:30
Joey
Yeah. Hang on. i I lost my show doc. Why don't you go first?
00:31:33
David Reed
right, I'll go up first, Dan. This one, this one will be a bit of surprise for some of our league mates that are hopefully listening to this pod. is ah um My first buy is actually going to be Garrett Wilson.
00:31:45
David Reed
ah Dr. Dan, if you're listening, this one's for you. But I actually had this in before you mentioned anything about Garrett Wilson. I do... I believe he's a buy. It's been a bit of a roller coaster in his career so far.
00:31:57
David Reed
But I am on the buy side now. No one's ever questioned his talent. He's amazing getting up and he has amazing hands. He can run basically any route. But for multiple years now, he's kind of disappointed. And his stock has kind of sunk a bit because of it. And a lot of that's been tied to the quarterback play. I mean, obviously he plays for the Jets. Quarterbacks have been terrible.
00:32:18
David Reed
There he had Rogers last year. well two years ago, had Zach Wilson and whoever else was on that roster. Last year it was Rogers, but they brought Devonta Adams over and and Rogers likes precise route running and you're there when you're there but Wilson has a little bit more movement in his routes to get open.
00:32:36
David Reed
So he may not have the timing that Rogers wanted so that didn't really connect as much. And this year he's got fields who just straight up one them. He's a running back. The guy cannot throw the ball that well. So his value has kind of been sucked by this but why do I think he's a buy? Well His target quality may be low, but he gets all the targets.
00:32:55
David Reed
Like so many. He's got breaking the record, I think, on like the amount of targets through the first three years or so. His first three years, he's had twenty at least 25% target share in all three seasons.
00:33:07
David Reed
And so far this year through week four, he's had 30 total targets, which equaled a target share of 36.5%, which is absolutely insane. So Justin Fields, terrible passer.
00:33:19
David Reed
But if you're going to get that big of a ah slice of the pie, you're going to win on pure volume alone. And so far, you don't see this trans you do have seen this translating a bit to like his top finishes. I think so far, he has like three top 12. And Fort Whiskey, not seeing this translate to me in his value. i don't think i enough of his perceived value is at this high level yet. I think people are still have the Jets think on him, especially knowing how bad Justin Fields has been. But I don't think Justin Fields is going to be the quarterback next year.
00:33:48
David Reed
And the Jets are going to be in position to likely draft the quarterback in the draft. And right now, the draft is not really looking that great for a lot of the quarterback prospects, but it's still early in the college season.
00:34:01
David Reed
But could a rookie quarterback be that worse than what Justin Fields is at passing? I don't really think so. um So I think – and if anything, like that's the floor from a passer. I think he could only go up. So if he gets maybe a good quarterback in draft, that is going to really skyrocket.
00:34:16
David Reed
Plus, if you're trying to make the trade, do it this week now because they played Dallas this week, and I think he's going to have a huge game as well. So this might be your last chance to probably get – Wilson may be in the wide receiver two, mid to low end wide receiver two value where he could probably, I think he'll be at minimum a high end wide receiver two rest of the way with a lot of wide receiver one upside. So I'd be going and getting Garrett Wilson. I won't do it because Dan and Harry would never trade him to me just because of pride, but I'm saying you should buy him.
00:34:46
Joey
Yeah, i'm i'm out I'm honestly in on Garrett Wilson as well. um the The market share speaks for itself, to be totally honest.
00:34:54
David Reed
Yeah, it's insane.
00:34:55
Joey
So, yeah. So hopefully he's able to maintain that. And doesn't hurt that he's got a quarterback on the team that he had a pre-existing relationship with and already has like a good chemistry from college and whatnot. That certainly helps. But, yeah, i'm i'm I too am in on Garrett Wilson.
00:35:14
David Reed
Yeah. Quickly, I'll throw out Ryan's and we'll get to your show. Ryan had for his buy Emeka Agbuka.
00:35:17
Joey
Yep.
00:35:20
David Reed
So he kind of speaks for himself. And I think it's more of a point of buying high because his value can still go up. And i'm not I'm not against this at all. Emeka Agbuka seems like he's the real deal. And...
00:35:33
David Reed
It's the same thing. This is like early rookie season of Puka. I tried to get Puka, I think, after week one for like a first and plus, and I got turned down. And Chris, our owner in our league, turned me down. That was a great call. So I think because he only grew and got better, that could be the same case for Emeka. I'm not saying he is Puka point, but I'm just saying the same arc. If you believe in a player as a rookie year who shows out that early,
00:35:57
David Reed
try to get him before his volume goes up. But don't know how high you are. I know a lot of people think it's a potential sell high opportunity as well.
00:36:04
Joey
Yeah, I worry.
00:36:04
David Reed
I think it depends on what you get, but yeah.
00:36:07
Joey
For Dynasty, I think he's more of a buy. um For Redraft, I worry that he's benefited from the situation. And the situation is as good as it's going to get at this moment for him this season. You would think um Chris Godwin is only going to get more comfortable and get work, I guess, more into the offense. Although he had like a metric ton of targets last week in his first game back. But Mike Evans is out.
00:36:32
Joey
Jalen McMillan is out. Those guys will be back eventually.
00:36:36
David Reed
Yeah.
00:36:36
Joey
Um, so it just kind of feels like for this year, his, his best days might be this, these, these last couple weeks and maybe the next few.
00:36:47
Joey
Um, but from a dynasty standpoint, it's tough. It's tough to buy somebody at the top of their market. Or like the, when their value was so high right now, it just feels like if I have him, um,
00:37:01
Joey
um I'm not giving him up for very much in a dynasty.
00:37:04
David Reed
yeah okay
00:37:06
Joey
um
Zach Charbonnet's Fantasy Value
00:37:07
Joey
But from that perspective, he's certainly an asset that I want to have on my team. So let's put it that way.
00:37:13
David Reed
I agree. I
00:37:16
Joey
um For my buy, I'm still buying this guy, um even though the start of the season hasn't gone exactly to plan. um
00:37:27
David Reed
think this actually worked out in your favor.
00:37:27
Joey
But my... What'd you say?
00:37:30
David Reed
I think this is actually worked this beginning the season worked out in your favor for this buy.
00:37:34
Joey
If you're looking to buy him, yeah.
00:37:35
David Reed
Yeah.
00:37:35
Joey
yeah um And it's Zach Charbonnet of the Seattle Seahawks. So Charbonnet has had a an interesting interesting career um where there was a lot of hype surrounding him after he was first drafted.
00:37:52
Joey
And kind of anticipating that he might come in and take the the starting role like from early on in his career.
00:38:02
Joey
But he never has. And he's kind of always been a little bit of ah a very expensive handcuff type waiting in the wings guy and you know stuck behind Kenneth Walker who Kenneth Walker is a great running back as well and when he's on the field he's been really good the problem is Kenneth Walker is not always on the field and even when he is um his consistency is not always there he's relied a lot on long runs throughout his career and has scored a lot of touchdowns he's a great player and if you were to assure me that he would
00:38:38
Joey
play every game for the rest of this season and that Seattle would look to extend him beyond this season. Um, then that would change my opinion on, on Zach Charbonnet. But the reality is that, um, the, you know, based upon, you know, past precedent, um,
00:38:59
Joey
ah the likelihood of of Kenneth Walker being injured and missing time at some point during the season is you know above average. so And beyond that, you know if I'm looking at Kenneth Walker's contract situation, I'm going to bring it up right now.
00:39:15
David Reed
he's free agent after this year, isn't he?
00:39:16
Joey
Yeah, I think 99% signed
00:39:18
David Reed
Yeah.
00:39:19
Joey
he signed ah
00:39:22
Joey
He is, yeah, unrestricted free agent after 2025 season. So I think, yeah, possibly.
00:39:27
David Reed
He seems like a jet next year. I'm not going to lie. They're going to let Greece walk inside Walker.
00:39:32
Joey
um So I think you're getting a guy who, like you said earlier, has started, this the beginning of this season has kind of like started off kind of perfectly. um where you are just like the the the Walker owners are kind of riding pretty high.
00:39:52
Joey
Charbonnet owners might be, you know, a little discouraged by how good Walker has looked. um But, you know, don't like disregard the fact that Walker was just hurt in the preseason.
00:40:06
Joey
He barely did any training camp. He looked awful in week one. Charbonnet looked great. And then Charbonnet got hurt. Charbonnet scored last week. um So I just think that the the future is definitely bright.
00:40:20
Joey
And in the opportunities that he had, you know, towards the end of last season where Walker was out, you know, anytime he's had the chance to lead the backfield, he's been ah fantastic.
00:40:34
Joey
Wide receiver, excuse me, running back one caliber guy. And yeah, I just think that there's probably... There's probably opportunity now to get him at a price that I'm not quite sure there will be similar opportunity over the next 12 to 24 months. so
00:40:54
David Reed
yeah I mean, I love Charbonnet. He's not an explosive back. I think he barely ever breaks a run over 10 yards ever, but he is, he's just very shifty and like knows how to work through traffic.
00:41:07
David Reed
Walker, they're actually complimenting each other well because Walker is their home run hitter, but Walker also takes a ton of negative plays because he runs backwards where Sharbs is always moving forward, which is why I think the coaches like him so much.
00:41:10
Joey
yeah
00:41:17
David Reed
He's not going to take any negative plays. So I like that, but I have him in redraft in a lot of spots. I'm the believer in him. Um,
00:41:24
Joey
Yeah, and the last thing I'll say, and this is a very important thing to say, even if um even if Walker does not get hurt and even if they share the backfield for the remainder of the year, there's you're still getting a valuable guy, right?
00:41:37
David Reed
Oh, yeah.
00:41:37
Joey
Like he's he's still on the field. He still gets plenty of opportunity.
00:41:39
David Reed
Yep. He seems more like a red um red zone threat.
00:41:42
Joey
Yeah.
00:41:43
David Reed
They like like him in they in that area.
00:41:43
Joey
Yeah. Got 12 carries last week, scored a touchdown. Got 12 carries week one, scored a touchdown.
00:41:47
David Reed
He should have had another touchdown, too. Jason had a hole that didn't have an impact on the play.
00:41:54
Joey
yeah
00:41:54
David Reed
But that highlights that the team trusts him in those short yardage areas because he can move through the traffic like that.
00:42:01
Joey
Yeah. If you can get him, get him. Redraft and and Dynasty.
00:42:06
David Reed
I agree. Moving to cells, I'm going to throw out Ryan's first because he's got an interesting one. feel like a shot at me. um And it's Travis Hunter.
00:42:16
David Reed
So I don't agree with this though, but I'll just throw it out there. And I get it. And I understand because i see it on Reddit too. So I think Ryan's not alone in this is at all. You're seeing ah rookie who is not putting a big stat lines. His snaps on both offensive and defensive kind of been all over the place every single week.
00:42:37
David Reed
There hasn't been a lot of consistency. This last week he played like, I forgot, like six snaps on like the defensive side in the second half. So he was all offense that point. But he's kind of been all over the place, but he hasn't really shown out. And then you see and I think it's exasperated because you see guys like Emeka Bucas standing out.
00:42:53
David Reed
Ted hasn't really broken out too much yet, but he's getting a good market share. So I think people start having potential buyers remorse already. But before I get into my takeout, Joe, I'm curious what you're viewing Travis Hunter so far.
00:43:07
Joey
i i would I would still have him as a buy. I'm still interested in buying. um Yeah, I just... ah It feels like there is... They still haven't figured out the right way to use him.
00:43:23
David Reed
All right.
00:43:24
Joey
And they're juggling between offense and defense and trying to figure all this stuff out. And... um you know Brian Thomas Jr. hasn't been hasn't been good either. The running game has been going well.
00:43:37
Joey
um so yeah i I'm still a believer in the talent. and ah i would be i would still be buying
00:43:47
David Reed
Yeah, i I would, if I could get him cheap, uh, already own him, so I can't, but, uh, if I could get him cheap, I would definitely be personally looking to get him because couple of things with the Jags, in my opinion, with one of the reasons maybe why Brian Thomas is not not working well, it's a brand new offense in a lean cone.
00:44:04
David Reed
So they're learning a new offense and and it's an effective offense. I mean, they're with their three and one, the running game's working out. I think the passing game is going to pick up as well. Um, The other thing is, Travis Hunter is a legitimate, unbelievable town. We saw it on display. He was drafted this high with that much draft capital for a reason.
00:44:22
David Reed
um And we don't want to disregard that after four weeks. I know we've been spoiled with a lot of rookies breaking out quickly over the past couple of years, but you got to show some patience. I mean, Garrett Wilson didn't break out this quickly when he was a rookie.
00:44:35
David Reed
JSN did nothing his rookie year. Quinn Kuge did nothing his first two years.
00:44:40
Joey
Hmph.
00:44:41
David Reed
Niko Johnson, like these rookies sometimes just need time to develop, especially the sometimes these super talented guys. It's not always going to be a meaty. You get on field and you're going to start dominating, especially because with Travis Hunter, they're experimenting with a new type of asset that no one's ever seen before. They're they're trying to figure it out as well. They haven't really had anyone where they played both sides there.
00:45:01
David Reed
They're figuring this out. they're figuring out a brand new offense. And the player himself is figuring out a new league. So I like i would. And this just goes for all rookies. it's I would not be selling any rookies, at least in the first half of the rookie season. it You got to kind of let them.
00:45:19
David Reed
See what's going on The one thing is you are seeing at least flashes from Travis Hunter. He had like a really great catch this past week. He's up in a couple or two weeks ago. He only had one catch lott two weeks ago, but i think it was like a 22 yard catch. It was a really nice catch. So you're seeing the flashes once he gets a little bit more consistency and understand that he's learning to play books there right now. It's going to take, he may have a slightly longer ramp, but if you sold JSN cheap, JSN right now is like a top five wide receiver in year three.
00:45:44
David Reed
you would be kicking yourself for that.
00:45:44
Joey
yeah
00:45:45
David Reed
So I would not be selling on these rookies this quickly. I am still very high on the talent. Dynasty is a long game, but I do understand. I fall victim of this too. we We have been spoiled, so we are expecting to see players show up quickly, but I'd be cautious just there.
00:46:03
Joey
Also, um Shane Waltron, not a good ah offensive coordinator.
00:46:09
David Reed
oh Also, he was with JSN, and JSN even said,
00:46:12
Joey
yeah Not a good offensive coordinator.
00:46:13
David Reed
even
00:46:14
Joey
Jason famously rolled his eyes and had a very sarcastic comment to make.
00:46:22
David Reed
He's like, is this on the record?
00:46:23
Joey
Yeah. Upon learning that Shane Waldron was leaving and and being asked about what the team could look forward to getting. Right. Because he went from ah Seattle to Chicago.
00:46:35
Joey
Right. I think he went to Chicago.
00:46:36
David Reed
Yeah. Oh, Roma Dunze, another one.
00:46:38
Joey
Yeah. Yeah.
00:46:38
David Reed
Horrible rookie year, and now he's showing up again.
00:46:39
Joey
And then Chicago stunk last year, and now he's in Jacksonville.
00:46:40
David Reed
Yeah.
00:46:43
Joey
And Jacksonville, like, he's basically nuked Brian Thomas Jr.
00:46:46
David Reed
If anything, take buy rookies who are in San Marlton's offense before their second and third year. That's actually a good one.
00:46:53
Joey
i would buy both of those guys. You could probably buy Brian Thomas Jr.
00:46:55
David Reed
Yeah.
00:46:56
Joey
right now at a price that is significantly lower than his actual value.
00:46:57
David Reed
Oh, yeah.
00:47:00
Joey
So, yeah, I'm in on both.
00:47:01
David Reed
Yeah.
00:47:04
Joey
ah For Dynasty, just to be clear.
00:47:07
David Reed
Yeah. No, yeah, redraft. I don't think it's going to be good this year.
00:47:09
Joey
Yeah.
00:47:09
David Reed
but yeah What about yourself, Joe?
00:47:10
Joey
Yeah. um
Kyler Murray as a Sell Option?
00:47:13
Joey
I tossed around a couple guys for sale. um One guy that I thought about was actually um Quentin Johnson himself.
00:47:21
Joey
And it's not because I'm not totally a believer. I actually, I think, I think I'm a believer. um
00:47:28
David Reed
Smash Mouth.
00:47:29
Joey
But I just, I just feel like his perceived value right now is so, so high. Yeah. And you could honestly, he's still, he's still in an offense with um explosive running game and Ladd McConkie on, in the slot and Keenan Allen on the other side of the field. And,
00:47:50
Joey
he's had up he said He spent the first two years of his career being inconsistent and a little boomer busty. And now, suddenly, he's commanding 8, 10, 13 targets in a game.
00:48:06
Joey
um I don't know that he is you know like going to go down the Devontae Adams path of struggling, ah you know, like,
00:48:20
Joey
with drops and things of that nature in his first two years. and then all of a sudden becoming like a, a stud wide receiver immediately after. um so I would just at least explore the possibility of trading, uh, Quinton Johnston, but my actual, um, my actual trade away, I'm going to go with Kyler Murray.
00:48:42
Joey
I'm really just, uh, I'm, I'm pretty out on a lot of what I've seen from Kyler this season. It's been very inconsistent. He throws a lot of bad interceptions.
00:48:52
Joey
He's not as willing to run always. You know, it's weird. You know, sometimes he runs, sometimes he doesn't run. I think he has this perception of a quarterback that's going to rush the ball eight, nine, 10 times a game.
00:49:08
Joey
But lately he's only been rushing the ball um closer to like four or five times a game. Um, so I just, yeah, I, I mean, this is coming from somebody who traded Kyler.
00:49:24
Joey
Um, like last week, he only rushed the ball five times a week before that.
00:49:25
David Reed
That's right.
00:49:28
Joey
He only rushed the ball six times, 38, 32, 37, 40, 40 yards rushing on the season. um Has thrown three interceptions and six touchdowns so far this year.
00:49:42
Joey
Hasn't broken 20 points once. QB 16, QB 22, QB 16, QB 16. um And in addition to that, he's 28 years old.
00:49:53
Joey
And, you know, like he's he's always had a little bit of like a weird – attitude about him where, you know, it doesn't seem like he's trying all the time.
00:50:06
Joey
And obviously his height is well documented as a challenge for him. And I just think the older he gets, the less the, the, the, rush the rushing is going the less of an asset that rushing is going to be. And you've already, obviously, like I just gave you the numbers, like it's, it's a little down relative to what it was.
00:50:23
Joey
So it doesn't have a rushing touchdown on the season. um So I just think right now you you might be in a position to get value for Kyler, um equivalent value for Kyler,
00:50:37
Joey
um either at the quarterback position or elsewhere, especially in super flex leagues, um where you know I don't know that his i don't know that his his actual this way.
00:50:53
Joey
ah let's put it this way If you kind of look at, if you looked at, here, hold on. I'm going to bring up the the Dynasty. just ah Oh, ah ah a Dynasty.
00:51:09
Joey
I'm going to give you the names of the two guys but ah that are ranked before him and the two guys after him. So two guys ranked before him, Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud. We don't really like either of those guys, right?
00:51:22
David Reed
you know
00:51:23
Joey
Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott after him. I honestly think I'd probably rather have Dak than either Kyler or Lawrence. um And yeah, I'd put Kyler in the same bucket as Stroud or Purdy, Baker.
00:51:41
Joey
you know like I just think that there's probably... i don't i don't necessarily view him as the fourth best, um like a tier three quarterback. You know, looking at tier four, Dak Prescott, Jackson Dart, Jared Goff, Michael Penix, Justin Fields. You know, I'm a big Fields guy.
00:52:00
Joey
think I'd probably rather have all of those guys in my starting lineup than Kyler. So, and they're all younger.
00:52:05
David Reed
Yes, Dynasty I would not want Fields. Fields I don't think is quarterback next year, but yeah.
00:52:09
Joey
Um, and they're all younger, right? These are all guys who are, you know, um except for Dak. Dak's pretty old.
00:52:16
David Reed
Yeah, but Dak has a couple more years in the month.
00:52:16
Joey
Um,
00:52:18
David Reed
that's I'd be okay with Dak.
00:52:19
Joey
Yeah. Yeah. So I'm, I personally, um, I'd be looking to trade Kyler if I, if I have him and there was somebody who was willing to pay for him.
00:52:28
David Reed
I would go for one of the younger guys who has upside to, like, even if they're not as good as him, Tyler, potentially this year, has more of the, yeah.
00:52:35
Joey
Yeah. Maybe you can like package Kyler and somebody and, and like, and get like a Drake may.
00:52:38
David Reed
Yeah.
00:52:41
Joey
or or Caleb Williams or Bo Nix, you know, like any one of these guys that um i would I would so much rather have any of those guys than Kyler right now.
00:52:43
David Reed
Yeah.
00:52:51
David Reed
Yeah.
00:52:51
Joey
I mean, not to say that they're like a one-for-one value.
00:52:53
Joey
think anybody would rather have those guys than him.
00:52:55
David Reed
Kyler's also just not a fun player to have.
00:52:55
Joey
But, i yeah, I think you can package him.
00:52:57
David Reed
He's a headache. like he just It's not enjoyable to watch
00:53:00
Joey
This is where, like, and that's where, like, the perceived value comes from. Like, he runs, he rushes the ball, you know.
00:53:03
David Reed
Yeah.
00:53:05
Joey
Like, wait for a game where he rushes one or two touchdowns in and then package him with somebody and try and get Drake play.
00:53:08
David Reed
yes You don't realize how annoying it is to own Kyler until you've owned Kyler. But that's kind of what it is.
00:53:13
Joey
Yeah.
00:53:14
David Reed
Like, you're like, oh, is the points are okay. He rushes the ball. It'll be all right. But then you watch and like he has like three points through three quarters. And then the fourth quarter, maybe he runs around a ton because the team is like in disaster.
00:53:24
Joey
yeah
00:53:25
David Reed
It's just not fun. It's not sustainable. I don't think – I think team NFL teams are going to get tired of him. So, yeah, I'd be trying to sell him as well. Moving to my sell, I'm going to get tight end because we don't have internet talk too much about tight ends and we're in a tight end premium league ourselves.
Donald Kincaid's Future Prospects?
00:53:42
David Reed
But I'm saying Donald Kincaid, who is currently a tight end three and a half PPR scoring so far. He's had tight end finishes of tight end one, 18, three, and 12 through four weeks. And with the tight end landscape, how it's looked, with some people disappointing, if you're just looking at box scores with Kincaid, he looks like a post-hype sleeper with first round draft capital who's finally fulfilling that value that you were hoping for. He was a first round pick in rookie drafts as well.
00:54:10
David Reed
But when you look under the hood, not always the best signs there. For one, he's just not on the field very much. He's splitting time with Dawson Knox. He's seen stat rates of 51%, 40%, 55%, and last week, 37%.
00:54:22
David Reed
thirty seven percent These are not the stat rates you want to see for an elite tight end producer that we generally target. And you need to be on the field to score points. That's just... One of the easiest things to figure out. You can't score points if you're not the field.
00:54:35
David Reed
And his fantasy finish has been propped out by touchdowns. He scored three in the last four games. So if you remove those touchdowns, you're going to have very disappointing fantasy finishes. And touchdowns are very hard to predict for anyone, wide receivers or tight ends or even running backs.
00:54:51
David Reed
So you need, when you're targeting tight ends, at least the higher end ones, you need volume of targets and yards, usually yak guys. And that's not what Kincaid has been. This year, he's only had a target share of 15.1%, including only two targets this last week.
00:55:07
David Reed
which he only caught one for for 28 yards and touchdown, which again, propped up his score. That percentage ranks 23rd on the year for tight ends. That when you're tight end, if you want to be an elite producer, that number needs to be over 20% at least. That's like the floor that you want for it. He's at 15.1. So he's just not there, but,
00:55:25
David Reed
Again, I think this is the time to sell because it's looking like this could finally be a guy who's fulfilling in all the needs and that there isn't a wide receiver emerging for the Bills, but I'd be trying to sell him on the hype of that post right post hype sleeper value. So that's my sell.
00:55:40
Joey
Yeah, I'm with you.
00:55:43
David Reed
All right, moving in.
00:55:44
Joey
um think Every time I think it's time to pick him up, it comes out with Yeah.
00:55:46
David Reed
Now, he's going to give you a dub the second you finally rely on him.
00:55:52
Joey
yeah
00:55:53
David Reed
Moving into the next category.
00:55:58
David Reed
We're going to hit you with a couple of quick sweepers for week five here. I'll throw out my first one because we're keeping with tight ends. So a lot of this stuff I look i look at and I'm sure a lot of listeners look at like all different sleepers lists across all different analysts.
00:56:13
David Reed
So you see a lot of the same names, but this is the name that actually haven't seen anywhere. And I'm kind of surprised. It's Chica Conquo. um So i already mentioned Titans are ass. And Cam Ward even said that that the specifically we are ass this past week, kind of calling out even his own coach. So they need a spark this week. And I feel like a lot of times when you see a team, especially quarterback like that, they they come out the following week with a little bit more oomph in it.
00:56:38
David Reed
um So I think there's more motivation to get the offense hopefully going. And one of the main targets or perceived main targets, Calvin Ridley, has only played 54% of s snaps last week and only got three targets. And he's apparently banged up going this week. So we we're not even sure he's going to play this week. And if he doesn't, even better for Jake.
00:56:57
David Reed
So the only other main target is a rookie, Alec Isleman, who has been who's a decent player himself. But not a target hog by any stretch of the imagination. And the Cards D, while it was a good streamer this week because the tight ends often sucked, not a super scary defense. They're solid defense, but nothing great. But if you actually look, they've been kind of bad against tight ends so far this year, and they haven't really played any elite tight ends.
00:57:21
David Reed
So in week one, they played Jawan Johnson, who looks good, but he's kind of fallen off a bit. He's not an elite, but he's he's a decent option. But he went eight for 76 yards, eight catches for 76 yards on 11 targets.
00:57:33
David Reed
Week two, played the Panthers. Jawan Tavian Sanders, not an elite option. He had nine targets, went for seven for 54. Week three, there wasn't really a tight end option for against the 49ers, but they had Jake Tongis, or Tongis, or whatever you pronounce his name. He's playing right now.
00:57:49
David Reed
And this was first time he was like really relied upon. He had only three targets because CMC had 15, but still even went two for 21.
00:57:54
Joey
Hmm.
00:57:55
David Reed
That's not bad for a tight end who no one heard of and was picked up that exact week in Dynasty. But then last week in week four, both tight ends, Elijah Arroyo on four targets went two for 44.
00:58:07
David Reed
That's ah that's a lot of yards per catch. And then A.J. Barnard, three targets, went three for 32 and a touchdown. The tight end is getting open against the Cardinals D. And Chig is a hyper-athletic tight end with a lot of yak ability and has already posted a 16.8% target share, which is 15th among tight ends.
00:58:25
David Reed
And again, if Ridley's out, that's going to go up. So you're telling me that there aren't a lot of receiving options. not ah It's a defense that gives up yards to the tight end. I'm going to target Chig, who no one' everyone's overlooking. No one's valuing him right now. So that's my sleeper.
00:58:40
Joey
Yeah, I like the pick. um For mine, there's a lot of guys out there this week um to kind of pick from. I think one good option is Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. it really and And not to say that I would would start Sean Tucker over Rashad White if I had choose between the two.
00:59:01
Joey
um White was previously the starter before the emergence of Bucky Irving. And ah White has also looked really good as a complimentary back to Irving throughout four weeks of this season.
00:59:14
Joey
I do think that um White will get the majority of the work, but How much of a majority might be, you know, 60-40. Sean Tucker's a good back between the tackles. He's a big guy, and he's definitely had some good um outings in the past when he's had opportunity for um to be the lead back due to injury.
00:59:40
Joey
um Similar situation in um Arizona with Michael Carter and Emery DiMarcado. But... but um My hopes aren't as high for Michael Carter. Obviously, Michael Carter's been around the block a few times, and the team seems to really like him. He seems to be like a big locker room guy. and um ah do think that he'll be the he'll he'll slide into the Benson role, and Dean Mercado will probably retain his his passing role.
01:00:11
Joey
um Maybe... um you know um that if If I was choosing between Tucker and Carter, I would rather have Tucker. I think the likelihood that Tucker's carries are valuable and what he's shown and the opportunity he's gotten so far.
01:00:28
Joey
um And this is all assuming Irving's out, to be totally honest.
01:00:30
David Reed
Thank you.
01:00:30
Joey
like I don't think he's been officially ruled out yet, and there's been times when he's been hurt and played and you know barely touched the ball. So... I definitely think there'll be a ah good ah ah good blend of um Tucker and Rashad White this week. And um obviously White's going to be the guy on the wire who's going to command the majority the attention. So if you need somebody to throw in there, Tucker's definitely a guy i think you could throw one
01:00:58
David Reed
Yeah. I mean, I tell you, I mean, we're, Syracuse fans on the spot and lot of the listeners as well. So we, we know Tucker very well, but he's a very, very talented back. He's definitely more talented in my opinion than DeMarcado and Carter. He was getting first round buzz before he, the only reason he fell in was on draft is because he had a heart problem going in.
01:01:19
David Reed
He's clear of that now. He is very talented. You saw it last year. I think he went for like 200 yards and um and two scores in one of the games last year. He is, Very talented when given the the opportunity. So I'm all for that.
01:01:30
David Reed
Two other quick guys I want to throw out there. Isaiah Bond,
Isaiah Bond as a Sleeper Pick
01:01:34
David Reed
rookie, another guy who's Jeff Capital fell. I think went on draft, but he got a fully guaranteed contract, high end. He had off the field issues, but he was coming out of Texas with Golden. He was very fast. He said he was going to break the record. He missed it completely. I think he ran like but he is a very fast, a little smaller guy, but he is a good option as well. he He's been playing and getting targets.
01:01:55
David Reed
And now with Tillman out, he should go even a bigger target share. And Brashard Smith for Kansas City, another rookie. The running backs in Kansas City have been terrible. Brashard Smith's not a great runner, but he's a good pass catcher and pretty quick. And he may be able to get the Jerick McKinnon role that the Chiefs used to have a few years back, which proved to be a very valuable role. And they've been hyping him up, talking about him more. They want to give him more touches.
01:02:22
David Reed
It seems like every week in this week, especially they say they want to get me even more involved. So that's someone who I'd be looking to maybe put in as well.
01:02:30
Joey
Yeah. Good picks.
01:02:32
David Reed
All right. And then moving to the next section.
Betting Outcomes Review
01:02:38
David Reed
We're hoping to show you some money. So last week we didn't get you in the green technique. We had a couple close ones. my glory play, which was basically 119 to one.
01:02:47
David Reed
Um, Wicks missed by 21 yards and golden this by 12 yards. And that, that's all I needed. And that would have hit which makes me feel like it was pretty spot on. Honestly, if I took their probably regular yardage lines, it would have hit, but I got greedy.
01:03:04
David Reed
But it's okay. i was trying to get get us rich on the first one. Ryan's missed because the Bills did not cover 15 and a half points spread. They only won by 12. And Joey was very, very close. Jepty had that touchdown. Raiders lost by one. He was called in for money line. And the Bowers missed by a reception. So very close there. So we're we're on it. We're just we're just missing.
01:03:27
Joey
Yeah, we were dancing around that on the last drive, and that was such a tough loss. like Man, the Raiders should have won that game, turned the ball over in their own territory.
01:03:32
David Reed
Yeah, we're good.
01:03:35
Joey
How many times they won the yards per play and overall offense by 100 plus yards. They really had no business losing that game.
01:03:46
Joey
That was a tough one.
01:03:47
David Reed
I know. It's all right. We're going to get back in green this week.
01:03:49
Joey
But, yeah, even even if they won, to be frank, like more of the issue was Bowers.
01:03:53
David Reed
Bowers is down. He's not healthy.
01:03:55
Joey
Bowers had like and like three three catches. We weren't really that close, honestly, on the Bowers receptions.
01:04:00
David Reed
At the end, he got a couple.
01:04:00
Joey
He had like – he literally had like three on the last drive.
01:04:01
David Reed
like yeah He had two going into the third quarter, I think.
01:04:03
Joey
I don't – yeah, I don't – yeah, it's weird.
01:04:05
David Reed
i was like, what is that?
01:04:08
David Reed
I think he's hurt. I mean, he may not play this week. so i think I don't think he's recovered since that week one injury with his knee.
01:04:13
Joey
Yeah, yeah.
01:04:15
David Reed
But this week, we're going to green. I'm going to start off. I'm going to go with a ah who less variance one this time. I'm trying to trying to get a win under my belt.
01:04:26
David Reed
So I'm going to be hitting up the Dolphins-Panthers game. Three-leg same-game parlay here. I'm going to go with Ted Arroa, McMillan, over four and a half receptions. Jaden Waddle over five and a half receptions with Tyree Killab and Devon Achan with over 63 and a half rush yards because do think the Dolphins may win that game and the Panthers rush. He's not very strong. So I think HM might rip off a couple, but he's actually been getting a lot of opportunities there. So that altogether gets you about plus four 79 and fan bill. I haven't fully shopped around see if you can get better options, but that's nearly five to one for you. so I think that's a nice one, three legs, not a lot going on there, but that's a pretty nice payoff for, for a parlay there.
01:05:08
Joey
Yeah, I like it. I might actually be taking that one myself, to be totally honest.
01:05:12
David Reed
Yeah. i'll probably put that in an after pod, but I've been,
01:05:14
Joey
Yeah.
01:05:15
David Reed
Dancin' around with it.
01:05:17
Joey
um Yeah, I'll jump in. So mine this week, I'm going to go three legs again. i really like this one. um I mentioned earlier that I think the Cincinnati offense, um they've had two tough matchups the last two weeks.
01:05:33
Joey
They were, help me out, they were on the road at Minnesota and then they were on the road at Denver. That's two tough spots.
01:05:40
David Reed
yeah
01:05:42
Joey
both of those Both of those defenses get after the quarterback quite a bit. um Obviously, Cincinnati has issues on the offensive line.
01:05:50
David Reed
you
01:05:52
Joey
Um, so I think that things will be a little bit, a little bit more, uh, open for them this week. I think that they'll, I mean, I don't think they're going to stop the Lions in any way, shape or form whatsoever. Their passing defense is 30th out of 32 teams in the league.
01:06:10
Joey
Um, so I think this will be a high scoring game. Um, and I'm banking on the Bengals to, to keep up a little bit. So I'm going to take Jake Browning pass yards over two 25 and a half.
01:06:23
Joey
I'm going to take Jamar chase anytime touchdown score, and I'm going to take Jamison Williams. And this is where you can toggle, uh, depending on your appetite for risk.
01:06:35
Joey
Um, you know, you could take him anywhere from 50 to 70 or 80 yards. His high on the season is over a hundred. So if you really want to go big, go big, but, um,
01:06:47
Joey
he's been he They just missed Jamison on a couple of deep throws last week, and he's getting quite a bit of targets still. um The offense has been going well, and like I said, Cincinnati is very, very low.
01:07:01
Joey
i think 30th out of 32 teams defending the pass. I expect or I hope that the Bengals will keep pace. So I personally am taking Jamison Williams to record 75-plus receiving yards.
01:07:13
Joey
um I had a $50 bonus bet on MGM, so I played it there.
01:07:16
David Reed
I
01:07:17
Joey
Um, but yeah, Jake Browning over 225 and a half passing Jamar chase anytime touchdown, Jameson Williams, 75 plus receiving. And, uh, that's 10 to one.
01:07:30
Joey
So plus a thousand, um, only three legs and, uh, yeah, let's try and get on the board.
01:07:31
David Reed
like it.
01:07:37
David Reed
All right. I love it. We're going to get there. Well, once we start winning, we'll track how many units were open down for the year see as ah as a pod.
01:07:46
Joey
Yeah, so far we are, we're all down, we're all minus one unit for the season.
01:07:46
David Reed
See, We're down. Yeah. Yeah. But it's all right. It just takes more, man. just takes more.
01:07:52
Joey
Yeah, yeah.
Weekly Performance Highlights
01:07:54
David Reed
All right. And then moving in real quick update on our league again with ah the weekly highs and weekly hose ah lows, lows, lows, man.
01:08:01
Joey
The weekly hoes.
01:08:02
David Reed
That is a Freudian slip if I ever heard of
01:08:03
Joey
since
01:08:06
Joey
Yeah.
01:08:06
David Reed
Anyway, weekly low, sorry myself because I was a weekly low this week with a score of 90.24, still not the worst in the week on the year. Excuse me, that is Harry and Dan, still lowest score, Harry and Dan.
01:08:18
David Reed
And the highest with Adam and Katz has scored 160.2. That is the highest score on the year. So congrats to Adam and Katz and congrats me for not scoring the lowest
Betting Advice and Conclusion
01:08:30
David Reed
on the year.
01:08:30
David Reed
So that's great. Any final thoughts before we hit the outro, Joe?
01:08:37
Joey
No. No. Take the Browns and the under and lock in two units before you even wake up on Sunday. And then have a day.
01:08:48
David Reed
That's right. You just start the day in the green, baby. that's That's the dream. But with that, thanks again for listening. And good luck and on week five, everyone.
01:08:59
Joey
Thanks, guys.