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EPISODE 35: WEEK 4 PREP
25 Plays18 days ago
WE ARE BACK!!! Finally back after a long hiatus, and we are getting you ready as we enter week 4 of the NFL season. We also are giving you our favorite players to buy & sell in dynasty as well as 1 sleeper player for your week 4 lineups. Additionally, we are giving you some parlays to hopefully enrich your Sundays with!
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Transcript
NSFW Dynasty Podcast Comeback
00:00:25
David Reed
Welcome in to the and NSFW Dynasty podcast. It has been a minute. It is technically week four has already started. It's Thursday night, but you know what?
00:00:36
David Reed
We are back to in-season pods, guys. How are you doing?
00:00:40
Ryan
Better late than never. We're back.
00:00:42
Joey
Yeah, it feels good to be back.
00:00:45
Joey
Is this thing?
00:00:46
David Reed
Yep.
00:00:46
Joey
Yeah, work we're good.
00:00:46
David Reed
Yeah. Oh, yeah you're you're back.
00:00:47
Ryan
You're good.
00:00:48
Joey
We're good.
00:00:48
David Reed
We're good.
00:00:48
Joey
We're back. We're back, baby.
00:00:49
David Reed
I know. Getting the cobwebs off. You know, it's fine.
00:00:51
Joey
yeah
00:00:52
David Reed
But it felt like there was a void in our lives, and um and I'm glad we're feeling it again.
00:00:57
Joey
Yeah. it's a It's a football season unless we're ah on here talking about the NSFW Dynasty League.
00:01:07
David Reed
That's right. Having to tell our wives that we are going to start podcasting at 9 once the kids are fully down. That's how
Giants' Quarterback Switch - Excitement or Concern?
00:01:13
David Reed
you know football is back.
00:01:13
Joey
Yeah.
00:01:17
David Reed
But yeah, so week three has already been in the books. I want to talk about what you guys think are some of the highlights, but I'm going to kick it off because ah have to. I mean, Sunday Night Football, one of the most disgusting games ever. don't know if you watched the final four passes of Russ and from goal, first and goal, second goal, third and goal, fourth goal. Well, those were the last passes of his career as a Giant because Jackson Dart, baby. It's Jackson Dart time. I am very, very excited. I think most Giant fans are. got Can Scadaboo and Neighbors, but wanted to see what your guys' thoughts on Jackson Dart starting is.
00:01:55
Joey
Go ahead, Roy. You first.
00:01:57
Ryan
No, I was going to I mean, it was kind of inevitable. You knew probably at some point this season it was going to happen. i felt like after week two, Russell Wilson was maybe going to hold it off for a little bit and it'd be a little later in the season, but didn't last long week three.
00:02:10
David Reed
Yeah. Did not. Did
00:02:14
Ryan
Like Dave said, I think it was four passes out the back of the end zone when they needed a touchdown. So ah yeah, it's exciting. I think it's always exciting when a rookie's coming in and you get to see what he can do.
00:02:28
Ryan
um You know, Scadaboo has obviously been doing really well himself. So maybe dark can get in there and and have some of that rookie magic as well. And hopefully turn the giant season around for you guys.
00:02:40
Joey
Yeah, i didn't I didn't get to watch one snap of the Sunday night game. I was at a concert. But I was doing that thing where I was just basically watching the game via group text updates from like various threads.
00:02:52
David Reed
yeah
00:02:55
Joey
My brothers, you guys. like i like Every chat that I had was was basically like live with every play of the game. And ah the overall overwhelming feeling was negativity in every regard except for Camp Scadaboo.
00:03:10
Joey
And when I went back and checked out the highlights, that was pretty much what ah but it felt like. So as far as Jackson Dart, I mean, you know, like somebody, DeCosta, think it was me to comment this week that was like, I feel like the Giants fans are like way too hyped about Jackson Dart. And it's not it's not Jackson Dart. I mean, it is Jackson Dart, but it's just like when your franchise has a new rookie that you're excited about, like it's it's the promise of like, maybe this will be like a good,
00:03:37
Joey
average to above average quarterback that can like take us to relevance for the next however many years you know like you never really know until the first time they're out there so I'm excited to see what he's got and hopefully it'll be something that we can uh cheer for for the next couple years and not just you know
00:03:56
David Reed
Yeah, it's it's not, it's not dark. It's, it's very cheering for the fact that we can hope for something that there is the potential for hope because we haven't had hope in years.
00:04:05
Joey
Just a relevant team. oh you You need to have like a decent quarterback to have a relevant team.
00:04:09
David Reed
We, which is ironic because the reason we didn't have hope was Daniel o Jones, who is now balling out and with Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, which doesn't make me feel great that everyone who leaves the Giants becomes ah like an all prop.
00:04:15
Joey
Yeah.
00:04:17
Ryan
So that's literally
00:04:22
David Reed
What's happening here?
00:04:22
Ryan
that's what I was just going to say though, is, is dark going to really help? Or is it just that the giants team in general, isn't that great? Cause we've seen it happen time and time again, where these QBs leave a team, generally a New York team, the jets or the giants, and all of a sudden they're on fire and their career resurrected. So, you know i wonder if,
00:04:46
Ryan
Dart will be able to succeed on the giants, I guess.
00:04:49
David Reed
my My narrative of why I think he will, and this is what I bought into emotionally as a fan, don't really have a lot of facts, is that New York never wanted Daniel Jones at all. We thought that was way too high of a pick. We were excited for the target pick because we thought that was good value.
00:05:05
David Reed
And Dayball never wanted Daniel Jones. He got stuck with him and never cared for him He has literally walked up to Jackson Dart, shook his hand and said, i love you, and walked away.
00:05:16
David Reed
And that was it. So, I feel like the vibe is just different and that's what you need.
00:05:18
Ryan
It's true.
00:05:20
David Reed
You need quarterbacks to have that confidence. I feel like Dart is going to come in with that confidence knowing that everyone like is pulling for him and wants him to succeed. So that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
00:05:32
Joey
Yeah, for me, it's just i don't i don't know that I don't know. I think Daniel Jones' start this season in Indy is a hair, just a hair overrated. um
00:05:41
David Reed
Yeah.
00:05:42
Joey
He's not throwing any picks, but he's still only thrown one and one touchdown in each of the first three games. And he's got the best running back in the league. He's got a pretty good defense. like it's
00:05:52
David Reed
good O-line, nice weapons.
00:05:53
Joey
He's got a good offensive line. Yeah,
00:05:54
David Reed
Yeah.
Chargers' Offensive Performance Analysis
00:05:54
Joey
like, you know.
00:05:55
David Reed
He's in a better situation.
00:05:57
Joey
Yeah, he it's not like he's, you know, Patrick Mahomes out there.
00:06:01
David Reed
Yeah.
00:06:02
Joey
Yeah. So
00:06:02
David Reed
But...
00:06:03
Ryan
Yeah, but that that's the whole point, though, is these quarterbacks go to better teams and then they can succeed, you know, but but yeah, it'll be interesting.
00:06:03
Joey
ah
00:06:09
Joey
for sure.
00:06:10
David Reed
Yeah.
00:06:10
Joey
For sure. But I think the Giants team has gotten better so this year versus versus last year.
00:06:16
David Reed
It's a good rookie class, and and they...
00:06:17
Joey
um And it's not like Jones didn't have success with the Giants.
00:06:17
Ryan
Yeah.
00:06:20
Joey
yeah ah Like, you know, like he we made the playoffs and he won a playoff game.
00:06:22
Ryan
Sure.
00:06:24
Joey
I mean, last year's team was terrible. and don't I don't hate what I'm seeing from this year's team. The secondary is definitely a little bit better.
00:06:31
David Reed
Yeah.
00:06:32
Joey
And yeah, we'll see. ah yeah
00:06:35
David Reed
and
00:06:36
Joey
there's there's There's definitely like the the but you get a perceived but kind of a real bump when, you know, that first game with a new quarterback. So certainly like the Giants this week and we'll see what happens thereafter.
00:06:47
David Reed
Oh yeah. but Yeah. this There's no tape on him, but the team they are playing, they've been balling out to. Justin Herbert and the Chargers, that passing ah offense, they're like the number one passing ah offense right now, the highest pass rate.
00:07:02
David Reed
Quinton Johnson seems actually be fulfilling the first round draft capital, dominating Keenan Allen's looking side. I think he's had 60 yards and plus in a touchdown every single week. But Ladd has kind of been disappointing. So like what's your take on the whole Chargers offense right now?
00:07:18
Joey
Yeah, um I think I have Vlad in a couple places. I'm trying to be patient, to be totally honest. I think it's just like a variant situation. And also, like, you know,
00:07:30
David Reed
with a foreshadowing for something later with that.
00:07:33
Ryan
I'm going to talk talk about that a little bit later, but I do i do think the offense obviously looks great Herbert is back to what we thought he should be.
00:07:33
Joey
yeah, yeah. You know, like, I'm trying to be patient with him.
00:07:45
Ryan
We'll talk about that a little later, but and I think patience is warranted.
00:07:50
David Reed
And a more patients. You always need patience with rookies, but how are you feeling about Gentry right now? He's not, his stats haven't been fulfilling what you would expect from ah that high a draft pick, but in a generational running back.
00:08:05
Ryan
I think the concern with him again, as the team, you know, the volume is actually there. He's touching the ball a lot, but the offense stinks and the offensive line is horrible.
00:08:16
David Reed
Yeah.
00:08:16
Ryan
So my concern, at least for this season is that I just don't see it getting too much better because the offensive line is not going to get better. And I don't think there's going to be ah ton of touchdowns to go around. So I don't think he's going to have this super crazy year that you were hoping for when you drafted him most likely at the one-on-one.
00:08:35
Ryan
But I and think long-term, he's still a good running back to have. I just think they need to upgrade the offensive line.
00:08:43
Joey
Yeah, like eye test-wise, he hasn't looked awful. um But, you know, maybe it's a matter of, you know, the defenses he's faced, faced the Chargers and the Redskins.
00:08:57
Joey
They have decent fronts, and the the the um game scripts weren't totally ideal for him. um he's He's probably...
00:09:10
Joey
got better days ahead this season. I would say if I was betting, I would say that, you know, we'll look back at the end of the year and, and, and be like, Oh yeah, that was like a little bit of a rocky start, but you know, he was able to get it together and and finish with a pretty good, pretty good rookie season. But,
00:09:26
David Reed
Yeah, I think ah the biggest issue, Ryan, you were kind of mentioned too, is the O-line is abysmal. I think, I forgot the exact stat number is, but he has been hit behind the line at like a crazy rate. mean, like his yards her before contact, so how far he's able to get without getting touched is like negative 47. It's like crazy. He's always hit behind the line. So he's doing a ton to just get to the line of scrimmage.
00:09:50
David Reed
And apparently I'm not, I have to vet this, but I believe the old line coach is like Pete Carroll's son or something. So there's a little nepotism that's probably creating issues there as well.
00:09:57
Joey
Mm-hmm.
00:10:00
David Reed
Um, but yeah. Um, but with that, uh, I also want to jump in, and I know there are injuries early in the year, but just want to hit a couple notable injuries that happened in week three. So not a huge name. Mack Jones had a PCL injury to his knee. Still questionable come back, but he was filling in for Brock Purdy, who was missing the time with turf toe.
00:10:20
David Reed
But it's looking like Purdy might be back this week, especially if Mack Jones is hurt. So we'll see what happens there. Jaden Daniels missed last week. Still not sure how he's trending for this week. I haven't heard that he's back yet. So maybe be seeing more Mariota.
00:10:34
David Reed
And Justin Fields, as of now, I believe still has not got out of the concussion protocol that made him miss week three. From running back, some brutal injuries here. Najee Harris, season-ending Achilles injury, and he was actually looking pretty good in that game.
00:10:47
David Reed
James Connor, who's like a fan favorite, seizing, ending, ankle injury. Both of these guys, who knows if they get back in the field or not. Those are tough injuries to come back to.
NFL Injury Updates
00:10:56
David Reed
And Tyron Tracy, overall giant fans, he got a a lot more touches because Tracy early in the game dislocated his shoulder, probably out two to four weeks. And then wide receiver, some pretty big names here. C.D. Lamb, high ankle sprain, probably out two to four weeks.
00:11:13
David Reed
That absence will show up later in the pod on few – topics that we discussed mike evans uh hamstring injury probably at multiple weeks and terry mclaurin it was initially reported as a quad now he's seeing a second opinion or in the specialist for a core injury potentially i guess sounds like they don't really know what is causing the problem but he's getting a second opinion which usually means not good things if you're giving a second opinion um so So he's, I would expect him to miss this week, but it sounds like it could be a multi-week absence. So still stay tuned there. But don't if you guys have any other thoughts on any those injuries or if there's anything else you want to bring up.
00:11:55
Joey
No, just the quarterbacks. um It seems like, and this might be the optimist in me, but I've been looking at the i've been following the updates pretty close on Daniels and Fields. Fields is practicing all right, um like full participant almost. I think I saw that he practiced as full as he could without being cleared from concussion protocol. So hopefully he'll be cleared. It seems like he and Daniels are both – Trending in somewhat the right direction, although Daniels probably won't be running as much for the near term. But um yeah, as I i have a Marion Hampton in a million places and I'm a big scataboo guy. So I feel like the injuries, while unfortunate, have definitely opened up opportunity for some of the more exciting rookies. So, ah you know, excited to see what they do with it.
00:12:47
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, like Joe said, I think the quarterbacks will be fine. None of those seem too, too serious. And, know, the running backs, it's interesting, all three of them kind of lead to one guy who should get a lot of work and are pretty highly thought of.
00:13:03
Ryan
So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. And then the wide receivers, I mean, basically our team, Mike Evans and McLaurin. So we're're we're in trouble.
00:13:11
David Reed
Yeah. I'm not sure you have anyone left to start.
00:13:15
Ryan
Yeah. Our bench is not providing too much, so...
00:13:18
David Reed
Not the deepest.
00:13:22
David Reed
Well, moving on, we've kind of alluded to this theme, but patience is a hard thing in fantasy. It seems like it could be even harder in Dynasty sometimes, like even though the name of the game in Dynasty is the long game. Wow, we have tendency to... see kind of become a bit short side. We've been spoiled, I think, with rookies over the past few
Patience in Fantasy Football
00:13:38
David Reed
years, but in general, patience is hard.
00:13:40
David Reed
But there's been some slow starts that are panicking owners right now, especially from the wide receivers. And there were there's a number of wide receivers going into the season and dynasties that were viewed as about top 15 options.
00:13:53
David Reed
and all having slow starts. I want you guys to both put in order of least concern to most concern for these wide receivers that I'm about to list.
00:14:04
David Reed
And feel free to add any additional commentary on your level of concern for them. But people start off slow start, got Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown, Vlad McConkie, Marv Harrison, and T. Higgins.
00:14:20
Joey
yeah i can Yeah, I can go.
00:14:20
David Reed
don't know who one will jump in. Yeah, you go for showdown.
00:14:22
Joey
So um definitely the least concern for me, Justin Jefferson. um I think the slow start there is just a matter of... JJ getting his sea legs under him and also not for nothing, but like, you know, Carson Wentz is playing quarterback right now. JJ is still out and it seems like, uh, they're going to give Carson Wentz a little bit of slack, um, in terms of if he keeps playing well, you know, JJ, JJ has looked good and I'm a fan. So I think ultimately things will be fine for Jefferson.
00:14:56
Joey
Um, Next, Brian Thomas Jr. getting a ton of targets. And overall, both he and Travis Hunter, I think, will end up being fine. I think both of them right now, it's just Trevor Lawrence, as we all know, is not a very good quarterback. So he's he's got to overcome that.
00:15:15
Joey
But
00:15:15
David Reed
Common theme on this pod, yes.
00:15:16
Joey
Yeah. But he's getting he's getting targets. And I mean, like, they literally gave up a ton for Travis Hunter. They got to get him involved, too. I think overall that up passing offense will be fine.
00:15:30
Joey
AJ Brown would be next. I personally wasn't really, like, targeting AJ very much in redraft for the exact reason why there's been frustration with him right now, which is just that, like,
00:15:41
Joey
Their offense doesn't pass a ton. So, ah you know, like they pass when they need to. He had a huge week last week. Um, he's going to have ups and downs, but I'm not putting him lower on the list because he's doing pretty much what I expected him to do. So I can't really say that I'm super concerned. It's just, that's why I wasn't super in next, uh, Drake London, a little concern. The offense has been great.
00:16:06
Joey
Um, panics look bad last week. I'm really hoping for a bounce back. Uh, There were a couple games last year, though, towards the end of the year, where I really liked what I saw from Pennix. So holding out some hope there.
00:16:20
Joey
Lyd McConkie in the near term. um I mean, look, you know, we're ranking these and, you know, there's got to be um got a somebody's got to be So he's got to be at the bottom of the list. And my my concern with Ladd is that Keenan is playing well and Quentin's playing well.
00:16:39
Joey
And a lot of the success that Ladd had last year were situations where he was the only receiving option. And not to say that he's not going to have great games, but is he going to be a number one locked in wide receiver one when there's other options on the team?
00:16:53
Joey
Like Hampton hasn't even really like hit a stride yet. So yeah. That's why I'm putting him where he is. And then Marvin and T Higgins Higgins, I'll throw at the bottom because i think this year is going to be kind of a wash for him. He hasn't even had his.
00:17:08
David Reed
He's Mike Lawrence.
00:17:09
Joey
yeah He hasn't even. Well, he's a lot better Mike Williams, but he hasn't even had his his annual injury yet.
00:17:10
David Reed
Yeah.
00:17:14
David Reed
yeah
00:17:14
Joey
And now he has ja and now he has Jake Browning throwing it to him.
00:17:15
Ryan
yeah
00:17:17
Joey
So he's last and Marv. Yeah, I don't know. I think he's got the yips. Something's off. So, yeah. JJ, Brian Thomas, AJ Brown, London, McConkie, Marv, Higgins. That's the order for me.
Wide Receiver Concerns - Who's Worrying?
00:17:32
Ryan
Yeah, and I won't go into too much commentary because it was pretty similar to what Joe had. i was going to list Marvin Harrison Jr. as the last in terms of most concerned because like Joe said, it just seems like something's off and it's kind of seemed like it last year too. But a lot of this is all quarterback related.
00:17:51
Ryan
Like Joe said, T. Higgins, mean, he has Browning as his quarterback now, so that's obviously very concerning. And I would definitely have agreed with Joe and had Justin Jefferson as least concerning because, again, I think it's just kind of quarterback driven and he's going to be fine.
00:18:07
David Reed
Yeah.
00:18:08
Joey
Any major disagreements from you, Dave, on that order?
00:18:11
David Reed
No, no, not really. I mean, Justin Jefferson, I'm never really concerned with. it's He'll get his eventually. If the quarterback plays really been the biggest issue, then I'll turn around. Brian Thomas Jr. and Jags. I mean, the other thing, too, it's a new offense. I do think um some of it is mental for Brian Thomas, but I think he'll he'll bounce back from that.
00:18:29
David Reed
London, I'm up more optimistic. It's ADOT has been low this year so far too. So he's got the targets. They're not been great, but Penix is a deep ball thrower. So like that doesn't make sense to me why that would be happening. And so I think that will eventually flip.
00:18:42
David Reed
AJ Brown, I've been low on, I think since last year, he was one my sales, but I still think he's valuable. lot I'm concerned with, and not for skill. It's just that kind of, Joe, you were saying,
00:18:55
David Reed
He was the only show town and like now Keenan came in, we were all concerned about that, but we didn't know Quinton Johnson was going be looking like this and demanding that many targets. And obviously Hampton's going to start getting things out of the backfield, but he didn't you even have,
00:19:09
David Reed
Orland and Gadsden now showing up. We got seven targets. like So it gets – and Ladd has been getting – been disappointing, and they were throwing at the highest rate of any team that's at at an unsustainable rate. So, like, you would think that the passing opportunities as a whole is going to go down. So his percentage of target share needs to go up with if that goes down to even maintain his current disappointing points. So that's the only thing. It's not a challenge. There's a lot mouth speed there.
00:19:37
David Reed
Marv is looking like a beta. I'm going back and forth because I think the situation in Arizona is better, but T is a better talent in my opinion. But, yeah, it's tough. Those guys, to me, are more wide receiver twos at best now. And they seem like potential wide receiver one, low-end ones, but they're like more well-end twos to me.
00:20:03
Joey
Yeah.
00:20:03
David Reed
But you are seeing guys popping up now like JSN, Emeka, Buka, Roman Dunzadeh who are shooting up to be those potential, filling the void of those wide receiver ones is pretty exciting.
00:20:14
Joey
Yeah. Yeah. Those guys look great. And honestly, like you probably, i mean, you, you're, you're like a notorious, um, non-believer in T Higgins and,
00:20:23
David Reed
And I have not been proven wrong at any point.
00:20:25
Joey
Yeah. And well, sometimes, and this, this, this whole, this whole off season, well, not not this whole off season, but this off season, after he signed the contract, the whole fantasy community was, was very high on him.
00:20:27
David Reed
Yeah, like a gamer here that gets hurt.
00:20:40
Joey
And even I, as a big supporter was feeling some trepidation about that.
00:20:40
David Reed
Yeah.
00:20:43
Joey
I'm like, come on. I think, I really think we're taking against like as a community too high right now. And ah unfortunately that is looking to be a Not very prudent decision. Seems like every time it it was the same this year, not last year, but two years ago, he was drafted like second or third round as well and didn't have a great season then either. So it's when you least expect it, you know?
00:21:07
David Reed
Well, he didn't really show up and do ADP or value last year. That was right on point. That's where he should be. People just keep pushing him up. doesn't make sense.
00:21:15
Ryan
Yeah.
00:21:15
Joey
Yeah.
00:21:15
David Reed
Just keep him down there.
Dynasty Buys and Sells - Who's Hot and Who's Not?
00:21:17
Joey
Yeah.
00:21:18
David Reed
But kind of that's a good lead into our next segment. With Dynasty, we we're always talking about every player is kind of like a stock it's about getting him at the right value. So we're going to move in. We're just going to be giving one buy and one sell player in our next segment.
00:21:44
David Reed
That's right. None of us know, but we're going to try to give you some lead.
00:21:47
Ryan
yeah
00:21:48
David Reed
I might make that louder next time, but we're we're playing around with new things here, guys. But yes, we we're going to give you one buy player and one sell player each. So Joe, why don't you kick us off? Because I don't know who your buy is and I'm very interested.
00:22:02
Joey
Yeah. um So
00:22:06
Joey
I was all ready to give my sell first, but i um no, no, no, no.
00:22:09
David Reed
Fine. Go with the sell. It's fine.
00:22:11
Joey
no no but so So for my buy, I mean, it's a little bit... I fear that it's a little bit obvious, but it's somebody that I have been buying in Dynasty for a while, and I really hope that it doesn't end up being um in vain.
00:22:26
Joey
But Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens tight end. um i i I've loved everything that I've seen from Isaiah Likely, basically since he came into the league. And whenever he's given the opportunity, and every he's on the but like whenever he's on the field by himself, he is an elite option at the tight end position.
00:22:45
Joey
And with and even times where he's on the field with Mark Andrews, he has weeks, you know, week one last year and a couple other times in between where he has where he spikes and ah puts on pretty, pretty great performances. So for me, ah I'm going to like if I'm buying anyone right now, I think this is a great opportunity to buy, especially after last week.
00:23:11
Joey
And just in general, um he's coming off an injury. Obviously, Andrews had a very big week last week, almost 100 yards receiving, caught two touchdowns. So this might be a good time to um capitalize on a little bit of a window to grab Isaiah Likely on the cheap.
00:23:29
Joey
um He is likely to be the um tight end one for the Ravens going but beyond this season. And I honestly, you know, I haven't loved what I've seen from Mark Andrews the first couple of weeks.
00:23:45
Joey
I mean, granted, he did a very similar thing last year where he only had, you know, one catch the first two, three weeks of the season and then kind of turned it around. He is very often a target around the end zone and probably will continue to be a target around the end zone, but um likely kind of really opens up the field for them.
00:24:04
Joey
And ah I think they're missing him a little bit on the offense right now, if it's possible. I mean, i know they're scoring a billion points every week, but um I think they're looking forward to having him back, and I'm excited to get him back in my lineup in a couple leagues where I have him.
00:24:19
Joey
So I would say he's probably ah the guy that I would say right now is – it's probably – it's a little obvious.
00:24:25
David Reed
Thank you.
00:24:27
Joey
He's one of these guys where – um You know, as a community, we've all kind of been, there's been a lot of people buying and and waiting for, you know, his opportunity to be the Ravens tight end one for several years now. But I think the opportunity is coming soon.
00:24:43
Joey
And I think now is probably the last chance you have.
00:24:47
David Reed
I dig it. I'm a big likely guy. I like that take as well. Ryan, what ah ah I'm afraid, I'm sorry for dictating the buyer's sale. So Ryan, why don't you decide which buyer's sale you want to go with?
00:24:58
Ryan
I'll keep it with buys. and And the the guy i'm going to talk about, we've already talked about quite a bit, which I actually feel like makes this interesting. So I went with Ladd McConkie, which Both of you have already said some things on this podcast that it seems like you're kind of down on him. And that's why I have him as a potential buyer right now.
00:25:20
Ryan
He's obviously had no touchdowns. His target share is down with Keenan Allen and QJ obviously kind of rising. um And he's been a disappointment. He's only had 7.93 points ah per week and half PPR.
00:25:36
Ryan
But Keenan Allen's 33 years old. You know, he's not going to be around forever. and Quentin Johnson, you know, has turned it around this year, but I do think Justin Herbert can easily support two wide receivers.
00:25:50
Ryan
And if you look a little deeper, Ladd has tied Johnston in targets when Justin Herbert has a clean pocket and has the second most first downs. So I think he is someone that Justin Herbert is looking at when it's important.
00:26:06
Ryan
And so i think long-term ah he could be someone that you could buy. He hasn't dropped a ton in terms of value in the dynasty community. He was wide receiver 10, not too long ago. And now he's down to wide receiver 15.
00:26:22
Ryan
But I think if, if he's someone that you believe in, I think there's a little bit of an opportunity to buy right now, because it does seem like a lot of people are down on him. And I think long-term he's going to stay as the wide receiver one on a really good team with a good quarterback.
00:26:37
David Reed
Yeah, I agree. I mean, what I was saying too, the talent's not the issue at all. It's, it's purely the opportunity right now.
00:26:41
Joey
yeah
00:26:42
David Reed
and And to your point around Keenan won't be around forever. Uh, who knows what even happens after for this year? He was free agent pretty late in the process this year. So, um, yeah, there's a very good chance you get them now for cheap and next year you're looking like you got a stud again.
00:26:59
David Reed
So, and who knows what happens later in the year too. Um, So I do like that by you want to get them when perceived values, well, listen, Joe and I are clearly proceeding that.
00:27:08
Ryan
Yeah, the community is low on him.
00:27:08
David Reed
So that's a good point.
00:27:10
Ryan
So that's why I feel like if you believe he can be that wide receiver one, I feel like now's the time to buy.
00:27:16
Joey
Yeah, let's put it this way, right? Like in a redraft league where I have him, like so a couple of players who I... you know, respect as generally savvy fantasy players have reached out to me this past week being like, yo, is lad available?
00:27:32
Joey
And that's generally an indication where to me, where, you know, like he's, he's, I, that's ah a strong case of agreement for your, for your buying him when, you know, like there's other people who out there in in real life who are also attempting to buy him.
00:27:48
Ryan
Yeah. Well, let me throw this out there too. and Keep trade cut. the The other wide receivers that are right next to him are Rasheed Rice, AJ Brown, and Marvin Harrison Jr., which we just talked about two of those.
00:28:01
Ryan
Would you guys rather have those over to Ladd?
00:28:05
David Reed
Yes.
00:28:06
Ryan
All three?
00:28:06
Joey
all of them?
00:28:07
David Reed
um not I've won all three. I've won Latt over all three.
00:28:09
Ryan
you Even after what we just talked about.
00:28:10
Joey
Okay.
00:28:11
Ryan
you'd have Ladd over them.
00:28:13
Joey
yeah Yeah, I agree.
00:28:13
David Reed
I have lab over all three those.
00:28:15
Ryan
Yeah, exactly.
00:28:16
David Reed
Yeah. Well, I'll turn things down with the cell first. So my cell is Jameson Williams. And i want to be clear because I may have been down to Jameson Williams a couple of years ago.
00:28:16
Joey
I agree.
00:28:29
David Reed
I'm much higher on him now than I was then. So this is not a panic cell.
00:28:32
Ryan
no
00:28:34
David Reed
But again, this is perceived value which versus reality. And I think those are not matching right now for Jameson Williams. Because he finished last year as a wide receiver 19 with over 1,000 yards by one on 91 targets and 58 catches.
00:28:50
David Reed
And then he signed a three-year extension for $80 million dollars in the offseason. So all good things, of course, like why the arrow's only pointing up. But he reached, again, that 1,000 yards on such a low target in reception numbers. It's you but It's very, very difficult to repeat that. The only way he's going to continue that success in subsequent years is to increase his targets and his target share. Only guys like Deshaun Jackson and, oh, boom, Mike Williams again, had a thousand-yard season with lower receptions and targets. And it was they were very up and down sporadic season. So it's not something you consistently rely on.
00:29:29
David Reed
And the the issue is that this year you were hoping the targets were going to increase. We already knew Ben Johnson was leaving. That was to have an impact on the offense, but his targets have not grown at all this year. and Like you saw the last year, they've but actually gone down each week at five in week one, four in week two and three in week three.
00:29:47
David Reed
He has a 13% target share. That is not going to get it done for what you were expecting out of Jamison Williams. And it's a run first offense. I'm in Ross St. Brown is dominating all the targets and the offense is slightly different than it was. so I ah but still believe the community kind of views him as a mid to high wide receiver two potential, but I think he's more of a boom bust wide receiver three. So for me, I think if you could cash in on that and get someone who is more consistent and reliable, I'd probably do that. So for me, he's a sell because I don't think the perceived value is matching the reality of the situation there.
00:30:24
Joey
Yeah, sad to say.
00:30:24
Ryan
Yeah.
00:30:25
Joey
I'm beginning to agree with that take. I had higher hopes for him coming into this season. and There was a lot of hype around him you know taking that leap, like you said.
00:30:38
Joey
And it's just been ah carbon copy of last year thus far.
00:30:42
David Reed
Yeah.
00:30:42
Joey
So, unfortunately, it might be time. And you know not for nothing, but one of the guys that I like hadn't was was actually considering for my bye was...
00:30:53
Joey
ah our man Tesla and he's, he has looked great in very limited opportunity this so far this season.
00:30:56
David Reed
You love Tesla.
00:31:01
Joey
So, you know, like the, be like he's only going to get more opportunity, the better he looks like that's only going to be even more competition for Jameson.
00:31:05
David Reed
Mm-hmm.
00:31:08
Joey
So yeah, not, not ideal.
00:31:12
Ryan
Yeah, I have him, and i I can't disagree. He's definitely an extremely boomer bust wide receiver to have. You know, in week two, he had 20 fancy points on two catches. Like, that's just who he is.
00:31:24
David Reed
Yeah.
00:31:24
Ryan
And like you said, Amon Rodgers steals all the targets there, so I don't think you're ever going to have a consistent five, six catches a game.
00:31:32
David Reed
He's a useful player. Just if you can cash in on like a higher value for that, do it. But like if he's your wide receiver three or four on your team, that's great. Like you need that variant sometimes, but he's not what I think people thought he was going to be.
00:31:42
Ryan
yeah
00:31:45
Ryan
yeah
00:31:46
David Reed
All right. Well, we'll give it back to you, Ruston. I just brought you down. don't you bring someone else down with yourself?
00:31:50
Joey
Yeah.
00:31:51
Ryan
Yeah, joe Joe may want to cover his ears for this one, but...
00:31:55
David Reed
This is a direct shot.
00:31:57
Ryan
Yeah, i am I went with Roma Dunze for my cell. Now, I'm obviously not saying you don't want him on your team, and he's obviously had a really hot start to the season, but that's why he could potentially be a cell.
00:32:09
Ryan
um He's had three weeks of 25% plus target share, and he's the only Chicago wide receiver with an end zone target in all three games. Some of that, I think, is going to change.
00:32:22
Ryan
And against the horrible Cowboys defense, he only had three catches. The TD did save his day. But I still think there's a lot of mouths to feed in that offense. DJ more still the wide receiver one first year of a huge extension.
00:32:37
Ryan
ah Luther burden has been emerging a little bit. You know, they have Colson Loveland, the tight end and, you know, DeAndre Swift is there too. So,
00:32:49
Ryan
He's jumped to like 30 spots in the last month, all the way up to wide receiver nine on keep trade cut. And I feel like if you can go and get, you know, a top 10 value for him right now, i don't see that holding for the entire season. So he could potentially be someone you could sell for ah really high value right now.
00:33:09
David Reed
Joe, I turned it over to you as a response.
00:33:11
Joey
i don't i i i don't um I don't entirely hate the sentiment.
00:33:12
David Reed
Your rebuttal.
00:33:17
Joey
right like I love Rome, and I've loved everything that I've seen. like Wide receiver nine in Dynasty, i'll I'll even admit is a little aggressive.
00:33:22
David Reed
That's crazy. I never looked at you that high. and I know what you were doing on that.
00:33:25
Joey
um But like you might ah you might honestly just be seeing... like the age kind of like torch being passed from DJ Moore to Rome where like, it's not like DJ is going to be like vanishing into oblivion.
00:33:41
Joey
It's almost like, you know, maybe he's ready to have like a little more of like a wide receiver to back end of his career. he's He's not the youngest guy out there. So ah yeah, like they it doesn't doesn't seem like they like, I would say they don't need him, but like you said, right?
00:33:50
David Reed
I think they trade DJ Moore at some point. I don't know if they don't even like him.
00:33:53
Ryan
yeah
00:33:57
Joey
Like they have a ton of, of options in the passing game and Luther burden is a pretty good limited opportunity. So,
00:34:05
Ryan
Yeah. I mean, I'll throw this out there again, just cause I have in front of me, the guys ranked around him on keep trade cut are Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas, Jr. You, you keep in Rome longterm, or you interested in any of those guys?
00:34:21
David Reed
probably over Garrett. i don't know about the other two.
00:34:27
Joey
Yeah, i think that's I think that would be my – I would definitely take Nico. I would definitely take Brian Thomas.
00:34:32
David Reed
Definitely. Yeah.
00:34:33
Joey
Yeah.
00:34:35
Ryan
Yeah. Cause like that, that's how much he's increased in value. You could probably go get someone like that right now, which that's where I say you could potentially sell them for a really high value right now, but I do agree.
00:34:43
David Reed
do think
00:34:47
David Reed
ah do
00:34:47
Ryan
He's looked great. So I can't knock that.
00:34:48
David Reed
I mean, wide receiver nine, if I could cash in on that, I would at least see what I could get for him.
00:34:51
Joey
yeah
00:34:53
David Reed
I think that's a good way to go about it. Float it out there. Yeah, that's that I did not know he shot up that high. i think it's because there's been a lot of slow starts there. But Joe, what about you? who's your Since I forced you to buy, you finally get to do the sell you wanted to do so badly. So let's hear
00:35:11
Joey
No, no, i was prepared i was I was prepared to do my sell first because it's it's very controversial.
00:35:12
David Reed
It's Trevor Lawrence. Got it. All right.
00:35:19
Joey
um And I sincerely debated doing it, but just in the interest of ah trying to put out good content, ah have no
Jalen Hurts - Sell Now?
00:35:30
Joey
I have no choice but to be true to myself.
00:35:30
David Reed
Oh,
00:35:33
Joey
And I honestly think that ah if I was selling right now, um Jalen Hurts, um
00:35:39
David Reed
oh yeah, I would.
00:35:40
Joey
of the Philadelphia Eagles um would be a, ah a really good sell candidate um really at any point this season, right? Because i I think this season he's going to continue to put up really good numbers.
00:35:52
Joey
And it's not to say that beyond this season, he's not going to be a good quarter. He's still going to be a running quarterback. I mean he's averaging like 10 or 11 carries a game this year.
00:36:00
David Reed
That's a good running back.
00:36:03
Joey
yeah, um he's not going to stop running, right? Like there are a lot of terrible quarterbacks out there that are good for fantasy because they run and he will fall into that category quite soon.
00:36:10
David Reed
Mm-hmm.
00:36:15
Joey
But the the reality is they have a very, very strong defense and he's not the best pocket passer. So if you take away, the rushing touchdown opportunity. And it seems very clear that um the Tush Push is going to be voted down this offseason. It's just b the new introduction of the false starting issues, where now in addition to their already long list of complaints that people had about it,
00:36:45
Joey
It seems like the Eagles are getting away with a false start on several tush-push plays per game. The frustration is growing, and I really don't think there's any chance that it doesn't get um doesn't get voted out at the end of this season. So you when you when you factor in the amount of touchdowns that he picks up over the course of a season, and strictly from the tush-push,
00:37:09
Joey
that is you're talking like a huge amount of his perceived value that is on the cusp of going away. Um, so yeah, I mean, i think if, if you could get value for him right now, um, and lock in another,
00:37:30
Joey
um quarterback that might not have as much dependence on rushing touchdowns specifically. um It's because it's an interesting thing with Hertz where like it's it's like whenever they get down near like the one or two yard line, it's almost like an auto touchdown for him, which is like a ah really like unique situation and advantage. And I remember when I traded for him in our league last year.
00:37:54
Joey
it was a big bet that the Tush Push was going to stick around. And I was like following that shit like very closely this summer. i was like, we we need to keep the Tush Push because otherwise like I'm going to be in trouble with Hurts.
00:38:02
David Reed
we got Joe was at this coach's meetings. He's like, guys, keep it.
00:38:05
Joey
Yeah. And thankfully they kept it, but it's it's we're not going to be so lucky at coming out of this season. So that's my take. I think Jalen Hurts is a sell and you probably have some time to do so. You probably have the rest of this season, but his value will definitely take a hit next year.
00:38:24
Ryan
What if you sold him for Kyler Murray, who has two interceptions at halftime right now?
00:38:24
David Reed
Yeah, that's good foresight.
00:38:31
Joey
Yeah.
00:38:31
David Reed
For the record, I bet Kyler Murray's under pass yards tonight because he's never this season passed more than 220 and that was blind and made no sense. But anyway, yeah, that Joe, he stinks.
00:38:39
Ryan
yeah
00:38:41
Joey
He stinks too, for what it's worth. I drafted him. At least I waited until the second round to draft him in our startup, but he and and Trevor both stink.
00:38:50
David Reed
Yeah, but the push push, that's a really good foresight, especially because then if he's not getting that, he has to rely more on the passing, and which he's not as strong, but A.J. Brown is a big touchdown target for him and he's going to start declining in his career as well devonta smith is still a great wide receiver but he's not as much of an end zone threat so his overall touchdowns uh can take a significant hit uh going into next year so that's a that's a pretty good sell right there um yeah and then i'll go in with my cell uh excuse me my buy did my cell already uh
00:39:24
Joey
Thank you.
00:39:24
David Reed
My mistake. I advise Bashaw Tootin of the Jags that, you know, we keep talking about the Jags here, but I'm a sucker for these fast, undersized running backs. This guy's 5'9", 206. ah He was an interesting prospect. He's a rookie right now. He came out of Virginia Tech. He had a solid dominator score, blazing fast, 4.32 speed, pretty good broad job.
00:39:46
David Reed
So he has the physical skills and he but he was an early fourth round pick, I think the second pick of the fourth round. But when he went to the Jags, he was the third running back in the depth chart. But then the Jags immediately shipped off Tink Bigsby.
00:39:57
David Reed
And now he's the running back two behind Trevor Etienne. Excuse me. yeah Travis Etienne.
00:40:03
Ryan
drive
00:40:03
David Reed
Excuse me. got his brother Travis Etienne. And he's been getting limited touches so far, but he's already showing flashes. He scored a touchdown the last two games. and they've been Goldwine touches, which is very interesting based on his size.
00:40:17
David Reed
And Etienne has been great so far. had a great week one and that's kind of in my opinion going to suppress Tudin's value a bit but if you actually look underneath ETN's number a snap rate usage production efficiency numbers have actually dipped each week and I wouldn't be surprised if ETN eventually his hot start kind of fades off you saw this even two years ago ETN started off hot it was very inefficient it was all touchdowns
00:40:43
Joey
was almost my cell.
00:40:44
David Reed
Yeah, he's I don't think he's going to keep it up. I think he's going drop off and then they're going to lean more and more on Tudin going forward. And I think he's got the skill. He's got a ah lot of upside. So he's someone who I think you can get still relatively cheap and someone who might be a pretty strong option for you. So I can have this year and definitely go into next year. So I would definitely be buying Tudin where I can.
00:41:07
Joey
Yeah, I like it. like Like I said, ETN was almost my sell. And
00:41:13
Joey
the fact that they traded Tank Bigsby is probably the biggest evidence that Tootin is the truth.
00:41:16
David Reed
Oh yeah. students They want to to be good.
00:41:20
Joey
Yeah. Because if they if they had any doubts about Tootin, there's no chance they'd trade Bigsby, who honestly proved to be a very good back all of last year.
00:41:21
David Reed
Yeah.
00:41:28
Joey
He was he was good.
00:41:28
David Reed
They liked it more than ETN last year. Just ETN dominated week one.
00:41:30
Joey
Yeah.
00:41:31
David Reed
You can't trade that.
00:41:32
Joey
Yeah.
00:41:33
David Reed
And then Just going to give you a quick bonus buy and sell. Just super quick. Zay Flowers is a sell for me. He had ah a big week one, bunch of targets. Everyone got high on him, thought that he was actually going to level up.
00:41:45
David Reed
But he does this every year. He has a couple games sporadic throughout the year where he gets a ton of targets. Looks great. But then you see week three happen where he gets like barely anything. And he's not a big touchdown guy. Never has been.
00:41:58
David Reed
Lamar loves spreading the ball. And he and there's just too many options there. So I would sell Zay on the hype of week week one. And then for a buy, just shoot your shot on Caleb Johnson.
00:42:09
David Reed
See if you can get him super cheap because perceived value is low right now.
00:42:14
Joey
Yeah.
00:42:15
David Reed
Colton Reale on his own team. and i think there' So I would just, you know, if you get him cheap, i would just ask something about there.
00:42:22
David Reed
All right. We're going to move to our next segment. I'm giving you sleepers for week four. So...
00:42:31
David Reed
do not sleep on the Gouda. So we'll see if we can bring you the Gouda. Ryan, why don't you hit us with ah your sleepers, because I'm loving your picks.
Sleeper Picks and Strategic Matchups
00:42:41
Ryan
Yeah, so I was trying to find someone that isn't rostered a ton, but I really feel like you could throw in your starting lineup. So i went with the Romeo Dobbs, basically because Green Bay is playing the Cowboys and the Cowboys are allowing the most fantasy points to wideouts.
00:42:57
Ryan
Between weeks two and three, they gave up more than a hundred yards to three wide receivers, Malik Nabors, Wondell Robinson, and Luther Burden, I just mentioned. So I feel like any one of the Packers wideouts could get a hundred plus yards.
00:43:12
Ryan
Uh, golden is rostered in 83% of leagues. Dobbs is only rostered in 24%. So that's why he's my sleeper. feel like you could take a real look at him he, he actually does lead the green Bay wide receivers and receiving yards with 121.
00:43:28
Ryan
through the first three weeks, which I know is pathetic, but still the toppa top wide receiver in Green Bay right now.
00:43:34
David Reed
Top dog.
00:43:35
Ryan
So he could be the one. he averages 17 yards per catch, so um he could be the one to break the 100 yards.
00:43:44
David Reed
Yeah, I love that. You'll see how much I love this a little bit later in the show. Not too much later. We're getting there. But I'd also even throw on Dontavian Wicks, throw it into the mix. All the wide receivers this week are thrown, which is low roster as well. He's been playing the Jaden Reed role since he's gotten hurt, playing a lot his rotation into the slot.
00:44:05
David Reed
So, and he gets pretty good separation. So I would, I love all the wide receivers there. I'll jump in because my sleeper is actually in the same game as Ryan's. But on the other side for the Cowboys, it's a,
00:44:18
David Reed
uh kavante turbin and i hopefully pronounce that correctly um turpin uh so uh obviously we talked about cd lamb is out um and the cowboys in my opinion are likely going to be down in this game because i think the packers are very good tune uh they have strong defense and their offense i think it's going to light it up against the terrible cowboys uh defense so i think turpin is going to be the big beneficiary um
00:44:22
Joey
Terpene.
00:44:45
David Reed
He's a year four special teamer for anyone who didn't really know who he was before this year. He's seen his snaps and targets on the offensive side grow every single year. And this year, he he even before CD went down, he was getting a lot of action. they were The Cowboys were getting him involved. Week one, he had two targets for two for 18.
00:45:05
David Reed
and two rushes for nine yards. Week two that went up to four targets for 447 and the touchdown still had another two rushes for six yards. In week three, this is when CD went down. He had three targets, two for 64 yards, and then another rush for four yards.
00:45:20
David Reed
So going in, and it seems like Tolbert was probably the wide receiver three and potentially the one who could be the two if CD went down. He has had more targets than Terpain, but he hasn't really done much with them. He hasn't been converting to catches.
00:45:34
David Reed
In my opinion, Turpin is actually going to be the wide receiver three for the team when CeeDee's back or when he's out, the wide receiver two. He's got legit speed, and you actually get bonus points because he will have a few rushes every single game as well.
00:45:47
David Reed
And in this matchup where I think Pickens is going to get a lot of the defensive focus there, I think Turpin and his speed is going to get a good amount of volume underneath, and he can get some good yak yardage there. So for me, he's a solid sleeper this week.
00:46:02
David Reed
Also, you will see how much I like him. I'm actually starting him in our league too.
00:46:08
Joey
Yeah, I mean, I like him. I grabbed him in a couple of ah and a couple spots. In one of my redrafts, i yeah and maybe you guys can make me feel better about this because the second I made the move, I i felt remorse about it, but I dropped ah Darnell Mooney to pick up Kevante Turpin on the kind of disgusting performance by Atlanta last week. and ah you know But i only mention that
00:46:33
David Reed
Who the Falcons have this week? don't even remember.
00:46:36
Joey
ah who They have, what are they? They're favored by a point and a half or a half a point at home against who?
00:46:44
David Reed
I'm looking at it up now.
00:46:47
David Reed
Way bad Falcons. Falcons, Falcons. Doing things live, guys. This is what live pods are about. They're playing Panthers. Oh, no, that was last week. Excuse me. Of course, even worse.
00:46:58
Ryan
They're playing Washington.
00:46:59
David Reed
keep Keep talking.
00:47:00
Joey
Commanders. home
00:47:00
David Reed
I'll look it up.
00:47:00
Ryan
Washington.
00:47:01
Joey
no Home against the commanders.
00:47:03
David Reed
Oh, that's a decent matchup.
00:47:03
Ryan
Yeah.
00:47:04
Joey
Yeah.
00:47:04
David Reed
But I like Terpin more.
00:47:04
Joey
Yeah.
00:47:06
David Reed
I think he he needed more.
00:47:08
Joey
Yeah, I think he's got to he was involved before ah before CD even went out. And I don't know.
00:47:12
David Reed
Yeah.
00:47:13
Joey
is is Is George Pickens really that guy?
00:47:15
David Reed
I don't think he is.
00:47:16
Joey
Maybe.
00:47:17
David Reed
he's I think he's – yeah.
00:47:17
Joey
But we don't think so. It's possible he's not. So, yeah.
00:47:21
David Reed
I got him off of waivers in Arley.
00:47:21
Joey
My...
00:47:22
David Reed
Think about that. That's how only deep this guy can – he started. I got him in the offseason as waivers.
00:47:29
Joey
Turpin? Yeah.
00:47:29
David Reed
Yeah.
00:47:31
Joey
um My deep cut, and you're probably going to want to pay attention to... um the practice report and status on Juwan Jennings.
00:47:42
Joey
But a guy that had some some success in the preseason, and I've kind of been keeping an eye on him, is Demarcus Robinson, wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers.
00:47:43
David Reed
Yeah,
00:47:50
David Reed
yeah good call.
00:47:54
Joey
um He has ah been suspended for the first three weeks, but he is now back. And they are desperate for pass catchers in that offense and just anybody in general who can do skillful things with the ball. Christian McCaffrey is touching the ball on like 50% of their snaps.
00:48:11
Joey
um And Juwan Jennings hasn't practiced. He didn't practice yesterday. didn't practice today. If he doesn't practice tomorrow, then I assuredly, and I mean, for what it's worth, Ricky Pearsall's kind of I mean, he seems like he's trending towards playing, but he's kind of like dealing with an injury himself. So um there's a possibility that DeMarcus Robinson sees a ton of, a ton of action this weekend.
00:48:34
Joey
So as a, as a dart throw, maybe somebody that you throw out there and you know, in your DFS lineup or, you know, throw, ah throw a couple shekels on his over three or four or five receptions and see what happens. But at home against Jacksonville, who's not a very good pass defense. I think that there's a, especially with Purdy potentially back to Brooks Robinson, keep him in mind.
00:49:01
David Reed
Yeah, he's he's not and that's good because I think a lot of people forgot about him because of suspension. But he's not nobody. He's what with the Rams he showed out. hes He's had a lot of moments on other teams as the wide receiver three and occasional two really stepping up. So that's ah that's a great agree call out of that.
00:49:17
David Reed
Slip the mind, but you're getting few guys back from suspension this week in Addison than him. So that's a big call.
00:49:25
David Reed
Any the other sleepers anyone to throw out as bonus sleepers? Otherwise, we'll get into the thing that everyone wants. It's, you know, don't not guaranteeing anything, but we're going to try to show you the money here on some prop-back cooking here.
00:49:38
Joey
Thank you.
00:49:40
David Reed
this We have the the major the main chef here in Joey, but Ryan and are the sous chefs underneath him So I figured me and Ryan could give our appetizers
Betting Picks and Prop Bets - Strategies and Odds
00:49:51
David Reed
first. and my Mine's a super spicy dish, but i'll give I'll let Ryan go first. I'll give mine, and then Joey can give us the main course.
00:49:58
Ryan
Yeah, I don't have the betting expertise of my co-host here, but I thought I'd give you guys a two-leg parlay that I put together, which is the Bills minus 15.5 over the Saints.
00:50:11
Ryan
I mean, the Saints just let up 44 points to the Seahawks. I feel like Josh Allen is going to dominate. So... The Bills will cover, and then we've talked about this game, but the Cowboys and the Packers, feel like it's going to be a shootout. Defense is terrible for the Cowboys, and I'm going with the over 47.5.
00:50:32
Ryan
um think a lot of points will be scored there, and on FanDuel, that is plus 264.
00:50:39
David Reed
I love it. I love it because it's a great lead into my pick because I hope there are a lot points because we've been banging this game in a lot of our segments. Oh, oh, pod.
00:50:50
David Reed
But I'm going for the Sunday night football, same game, part of like glory play when you have lost a lot of money. And earlier in the day, and you're like, I'm just going to get it all back right now on the Sunday night game.
00:51:04
David Reed
So I have a five-leg same-game parlay. I am going with Matthew Golden, 70-plus receiving yards, so that's 69.5 is the line there plus Wicks, 50-plus, so over 49.5. That's plus 111.
00:51:17
David Reed
um tving wi fifty plus over forty nine and a half that's plus one eleven Josh Jacobs, 80-plus rush yards, so that's 79.5 is the line there, plus 103. Jake Ferguson, 7-plus reception. Again, line then is 6.5, and that's minus 144. And then Kevante Terpin, 25-plus receiving yards, that's, again, the line is 24.5 there, and that's plus 138.
00:51:38
David Reed
and then <unk>te turin twenty five plus receiving yards so that
00:51:41
Joey
Thank you.
00:51:44
David Reed
again the line is twenty four and a half there that's plus one thirty eight I think there's a lot of value because a lot of these players have not shown out yet. and i think this is the game where there will blow up. And that's why I'm putting these all together. And I've got a lot of alt lines for that.
00:51:56
David Reed
You blend that all together. You put a little nice out like spices on top of there. And that actually comes out to plus 9,500. So that's 95 to 1 odds.
00:52:07
David Reed
And on DraftKings, you can boost that an extra 25%, which I did. ah So that is plus... um ah 1100 875 it's 118.7521 those odds and I don't know which one of those lines is not going to hit honestly the Josh Jacobs one is the one that scares me the most but I think they're all going hit and we're all going to be rich so let's just take it and if I hit this on the first call then I don't even care what I say the rest of this year because you will be in the money if this hits but again nothing's guaranteed and if you have gambling addiction please call the hotline but anyway
00:52:43
David Reed
Joey. ah
00:52:46
Joey
So i am going to go a little team for the first week. Just try and get on the board.
00:52:55
David Reed
Offset me. thank That's good.
00:52:56
Joey
Try and try and see one go through. um One of the teams that I feel the best about this week is the Las Vegas Raiders at home against the Chicago Bears.
00:53:07
Joey
think that's a good matchup. I think they're going win that game. um i think there's a little bit of value right now on Brock Bowers because he has been hurt. um He looked like a beast the first week. Obviously, he's been recovering from a knee injury. He's still probably recovering a little bit from an knee injury.
00:53:25
Joey
um But I think he's going to be more targeted this game than he has been in the last two weeks. Although he did have eight targets week two and only five targets week three. But part of that may might have just been, you know, Trey Tucker. I don't know.
00:53:36
Joey
But Um, yeah, so I am going with a, uh, three leg, same game parlay, uh, Las Vegas to win the game. Moneyline Ashton Gentry.
00:53:48
Joey
to get in the end zone, score a touchdown and Brock Bowers to record seven or more receptions. Three of those legs together, depending on where you're shopping, get you as high as plus six 50. I'm looking right now. Plus six 50 is, is available on bet. Three, six, five in New Jersey.
00:54:06
Joey
Van dual had plus five 50. Um, I have to put it into picket and see where the best, uh, the best odds are, but I, that's what I, I think that we're going to get a win from Oakland or Vegas.
00:54:20
Joey
And that's highly correlated with the gente touchdown. And I think Bowers is going to bounce back this week. So ah those three legs, I think six to one is, is pretty good number there. So let's see one go through, get up a couple of units. And then next week we can be a little more frisky.
00:54:36
David Reed
All right. I like it. I like it. And honestly, one of these days, maybe we'll do a sub pod. Joe, you're going to have to break down all the different like apps and stuff you have to shop and like find the right odds.
00:54:46
Joey
Oh yeah.
00:54:46
David Reed
like it's Joe on like a Sunday morning is on the on the on the toilet. It's just it like game. He's game and locked in there.
00:54:55
Joey
It's a, it's a, it's a process.
00:54:56
David Reed
It's crazy.
00:54:57
Joey
One of these, one of these um months or years, I'm going to take a sabbatical from work and just dedicate like my full life to ah football, you know, like preparation and everything like during the week, like do my own research and scouting and,
00:55:15
Joey
you know like Right now, I'm doing a lot of crowdsourcing analysis and feel like if I had the time to do my own analysis, then maybe I could... ah
00:55:25
David Reed
you know, make living off that.
00:55:27
Joey
Yeah, who knows? But we'll see.
00:55:28
David Reed
Not stressful with kids, but I, be
00:55:29
Joey
For right now, I'm going have to do my 9-to-5 and consume as much content as I can when I'm not doing my 9-to-5 and then sit on the toilet on Sunday and mash in 100 bets.
00:55:38
David Reed
I consume content while doing my nine to five a lot.
00:55:42
Ryan
yeah
00:55:43
Joey
um While my wife is like, Joe, what's going on in there?
00:55:45
David Reed
Joe, yeah, the kids, the kids need you.
00:55:47
Joey
i'm sorry Yeah. That's how it goes.
00:55:50
David Reed
Oh man. Well, that's how it goes.
00:55:51
Ryan
and
00:55:53
David Reed
Um, Well, want to quickly, before ending this pod, haven't talked about our weekly highs and lows yet on the pod. So yeah each week we have a weekly high and weekly low, which actually we're paying out the weekly highs this year in our league. So in the nonstop fantasy weekly dynasty league, you know, you're getting some payouts there. I think it's either 25 or 50 week.
00:56:13
David Reed
But we also pay out the highest score that um the year and lowest score actually funds are totally full. week one, Joey actually had the highest score of 147.6 and Scott Rapp had the lowest of 74.2.
00:56:29
David Reed
Week two, Schluter clocked in at 158.9 for the highest on the year. So week two, we got our highest. And then the lowest, which is going to be a really hard one to beat for our lowest one, was Harry and Dan at 62 flat.
00:56:42
David Reed
That is the second lowest score in the history of our league in three or so. So that's tough. And then Schluter came in with another weekly high last week, 152.22. So the guy's just racking up funds all time.
00:56:55
David Reed
Although his projected total is like 167 this week. It makes no sense. I've never seen it. Mine's like 120, and that's like league average. He's at 167. It's crazy. but just No one's even scored that this year. But anyway, Whitey with a low score. It's a pretty high low score of 103.54.
00:57:12
Joey
Oh.
00:57:13
David Reed
So just wanted to, you know, give the league a little shout out for there. Is there any other call out you guys want to bring out, whether it's the league, and any trade you guys are trying you know, bully people to get done on in there or anything else you're excited for it with week four?
00:57:29
Ryan
Just a lot of domination by Division 2, that's all I'll say.
00:57:33
David Reed
Yeah, I mean, my division stinks and I still can't dominate. It's just so bad. It's all right. Bouncing back. Well, with that, we're back, guys.
00:57:44
David Reed
We got through it. And I want to thank everyone for listening. And there'll be more this season. So follow the pod. And thank you very much.