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EPISODE 29: ROOKIE DRAFT REDO
30 Plays1 month ago
We are halfway through the NFL season and we decided it would be a great time to redo the rookie draft now that we have 8 weeks of data and performance to influence our picks. We take turns making the first 24 picks in a Superflex Tight End Premium draft and provide context on what has changed since our personal rookie draft. Finally, we let you know what NFL prop bets we'll be riding in week 9! Feel free to help support the podcast as well as finding a book with the best odds for you via our special link: signupexpert.com/nsfw.
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Transcript
Reunited and Ready
00:00:39
Ryan
Doing good, good to be back. Thanks for holding down the fort last time without me. You guys did a great job.
00:00:46
Joey
Yeah, good to be back and good to have you back.
00:00:46
David Reed
Yeah, we yeah's I know we were phenomenal, but it is happy to have the whole trio back. feel feel We feel whole again. There was definitely a void.
00:00:56
Joey
yeah
00:00:57
David Reed
I felt by all of the listeners. Let's be real. How are you guys
Mid-Season Fantasy Football Reflections
00:01:01
David Reed
feeling? We're at the mid-point of the season, eight weeks in. um I mean, it's been pretty pretty crazy. I just tried to sell less, and I said it in the podcast, I started rebuilding.
00:01:11
David Reed
Ended up having the weekly high this week. We'll get into that later. So like now I'm deciding to continue with our rebuild, but how are you guys feeling?
00:01:18
Ryan
I told you last time I was like, you're selling and you have the winning record and you were like top of your division. So um yeah, we're we're feeling pretty good. I think we have this, maybe the second most points in the league, but we're behind Schluter in our division and pretty much have no chance to catch him since he just somehow keeps winning week after week.
00:01:39
David Reed
Yeah, he hasn't lost since, I don't know, like ah November of last year. i just so The last time I got lost.
00:01:45
Ryan
Yeah. Yeah, it's crazy. um But we're feeling pretty good about our playoff hopes, and you know as we all know, you just gotta make the playoffs and then go from there.
00:01:54
David Reed
ryan What about you, Jeff?
00:01:56
Joey
Yeah, I mean, it's going to be a tight playoff race for that for those like non division winner slots, right? Like like I would which is particularly particularly relevant for Ryan and I because shooters in our division and he's eight. No. um But there are one, two, three, four, five, six teams at four and four, including myself um and then another couple at five and three.
00:02:25
Joey
Um,
Rebuilding or Competing?
00:02:26
Joey
so it just kind of feels like there's, it's, kind it's kind of wide open for any of those teams to make or miss the playoffs. Um, I think I'm going to try and make a run for it. Uh, although I desperate desperately need a running back help, but, um, yeah, I will say I don't, I don't love my chances the rest of the way this year. I probably would be interested in a little bit of a soft sell depending on how things go, but I've won the last two weeks. So.
00:02:56
Joey
Building some momentum. Maybe keep it going this week. We'll see.
00:03:00
David Reed
Yeah, I'm saying I'm in a weird spot. I started off 3-0, lost 4 straight, and some real low scores during those snap losing streak, and then bounced back in a major way this past week. So we'll see. I'm at 4-4 as well. Did just lose a quarterback. We'll get into that reason why later. So trying to figure out ways to level up. But i've I've
Injuries Shake Up Fantasy Strategies
00:03:22
David Reed
had a lot of players that suddenly popped up into value. So I'm like, all right, maybe I make a push up.
00:03:28
David Reed
I know I'm toying around with going for it. But again, all the 4-in-4 teams, Joe, I know you're feeling too. It's a little stressful. Like you want to buy in, but you're kind of dipping a toe. You're not fully into it. But we'll see.
00:03:41
David Reed
But aside from that, we got ah we got a fun episode for you. We're actually going to be doing a rookie draft redo a little bit later now that we're midway through the season, have a little bit more data to kind of look at and and see how these players are performing, see what players would move up or down if um if we we were to draft today. But before that, as always, there's always injuries that happen every single week. Some of them may have sank your week, but but we'll we'll run through them right now and see how if any other opportunities may be popping up as a result of these. So starting out with the quarterbacks, Jordan Love had a left groin strain. You saw him get it a little bit earlier in the game. He kind of stunky after that. He was not very good. And then eventually had to exit the game and Malik Willis came in. Malik Willis does not lose ever. So like they actually had a, I think he had a game winning drive to win that game, but he, Jordan Love is questionable for this week. I think it it is a divisional game. So we'll see if he plays this week.
00:04:38
David Reed
Drake may left with concussion opening the door for Jacoby percent to come back also leading a game-winning drive against the Jets He's still in the concussion protocol. So be surprised if he plays this week with something monitor and coming back Derek Carr who's missed the last three games is actually trending to play in week nine and which I think they'll need because I think Rattler was actually bench for Hainer, I believe midway through that game. So they definitely are welcome car back. And Andy Dalton, this week ate with a thumb injury because of the car accident. We were going to see if he was actually able to go, but news came out earlier today that he is healthy, but Bryce Young is still going to start no matter what. And Andy Dalton will be the backup. So with the quarterbacks, what are the major takeaways for you guys?
00:05:24
Joey
Yeah, I mean, Jordan Love is a big one. um It's just like a that the offense there has been a little bit unpredictable to begin with. I feel like with ah the amount of receiving options that they have, I found that even like Jaden Reed has been a little bit unreliable and. um You know, obviously it's it even it throws even more of a wrinkle if if it's Willis out there instead of love. um So I would like to see him healthy, but it'll be interesting to see.
00:05:54
Joey
if he actually ends up playing or not. I don't think he practiced today and they have the lion. So yeah, it'd be interesting to see.
00:06:02
Ryan
Yeah, he's had a tough time staying healthy this season. Hopefully he can get back out there this week. It's always the worst too when you start someone and then they go out after scoring like one or two fantasy points and there's nothing you can do about it. At least the other guys, you know, you can generally know before the game if you're going to start them or not. So it's tough. Um, but hopefully he's back out there and then, yeah, Dalton, um, you know, getting put back to the bench, Bryce young, maybe some value again. I don't know.
00:06:30
David Reed
Yeah, it seems like the Panthers are, I don't know if I'd say value, but the Panthers are at least giving him another shot. So we'll see what happened.
00:06:35
Ryan
Yeah.
00:06:36
David Reed
He he did look better last week than he had at any point previously. They still got destroyed. They were not very good, but he looked, he didn't look, uh, as flusters as he did earlier in the season.
00:06:50
David Reed
Um, and to someone who is an Olave owner, excited for Derek Cardigan back out there.
00:06:50
Ryan
yeah
00:06:55
David Reed
even though Carr obviously loves Shaheed. Shaheed's gone, so he's gotta throw in a Lave, right? So I'm hopingly
00:07:00
Joey
Yeah.
Trading Dynamics: Deontay Johnson to Ravens
00:07:01
David Reed
hoping that works out as I'm ah i an Lave owner.
00:07:05
David Reed
And jumping into the running back. So talking about someone who got hurt and left and probably sank your week. If you start him, which I did in a couple of leagues, uh, Jordan Mason, uh, he, I think was it two weeks ago, he had, uh, an AC joint, uh, spraying in the shoulder. Uh, he aggravated again early in the game, left the game. They said he could have returned. He never really did. Uh, they're on by this week. And it sounds like Christian McCaffrey should be back in week 10 after the buy. So, uh, those, the Jordan Mason that run could be over, wouldn't drop them. We'll see what happened to CMC, you know,
00:07:35
David Reed
how he is tendency to get injured there. Tyrone Tracy, rookie phenom fully took over the role for the Giants. And then when the game was pretty much out of hand, just gets crushed and gets concussed. And it was Monday night football. So it'd be tough for him to get back this week. We'll see how he progresses to the protocol, but it's a shorter week because of Monday night football. So keep an eye on that. But he looked great. And I'd love to get your guys thoughts on him coming forward. Kendry Miller.
00:08:02
David Reed
not that you were playing him because he's been hurt finally got back guess what got hurt again
Browns' New Offensive Potential
00:08:07
David Reed
hamstring strain uh this guy is probably definitely missing this week and just cannot play him feels his body rejects football rico daddle weird situation there it was like a last second inactive hopefully you didn't get stuck with him in your lineup. I believe they said he was ill or sick, but from what I heard from Pete reporters, he seemed fine. So it's a weird thing going on in Dallas, not really sure what's happening there. And then Jonathan Brooks, actually, I believe I saw that he practiced in full today. So it looks like he may be having his debut this week in week nine. But from the runbacks, what are some major takeaways? And also, please opine on Tyrone Tracy.
00:08:43
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, Tracy obviously has looked really good the last four weeks. So since then, he got a concussion. Hopefully, he's back sooner rather than later. I mean, pretty much had taken over the starting role.
00:08:54
Ryan
So ah I'm sure we'll talk.
00:08:57
David Reed
20 rush attempts, just saying.
00:08:59
Ryan
Yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about him as we ah redo the rookie draft in a little bit here. We'll see see how high he's risen in the rankings.
00:09:06
David Reed
That's right.
00:09:08
Joey
um my My major frustration is that all this um commentary about how ah Mason could have actually come back and play like it wasn't really that much of an injury. um And I guess I honestly like Isaac Corrento came in there and actually looked pretty good, so they didn't really need Mason in there. But going into a bye and you're planning on having McCaffrey back after the bye. So I just don't but I don't like.
00:09:36
Joey
I mean, and not to like, you know, discredit his own like personal health and well-being, but like, I don't know why we're being cautious with Jordan Mason in a big game when we think he could possibly go back out there. um So that was a little bit ah
Rookie Draft Redo: Mid-Season Analysis
00:09:51
Joey
frustrating for me as um somebody who owns Mason in several places and lost matchups because he basically goosed.
00:10:00
David Reed
Yeah, I lost one matchup by two points, and I won a matchup by two points, like playing against Jordan Mason.
00:10:00
Joey
um Yep.
00:10:06
David Reed
So i it seemed like if you own Jordan Mason, you earn a close matchup, but you lost a lot of them.
00:10:10
Joey
Yeah, yeah. Tyrone Tracey, yeah, we talked about him a little bit last week. I'm a fan. I like the fact that he's a converted wide receiver because it makes him more of a weapon in the passing game. Sometimes when he's running, he looks like a converted wide receiver. Like he doesn't like look like a running back. um But yeah, I mean, I love him. He's explosive. He's great. He's definitely got more juice than Devin Singletary. So I'm um happy to see him.
00:10:37
Joey
you know, doing something. I, yeah and I just want to say that, uh, Kendry Miller also dead to me. I've been hanging on to him in a couple of leagues where I, uh, need running back help, just kind of hoping that he'll turn into something and I'm cutting him loose everywhere and never looking back.
00:10:44
David Reed
Yeah.
00:10:53
David Reed
Yeah. Yeah. I had them in a few places. the Same thing. I've like, I've made one trailer.
00:10:57
Joey
Yeah.
00:10:58
David Reed
I was like, oh, maybe, you know, Camara's older. Such a waste of time. And this guy is just a waste.
00:11:03
Joey
yeah
00:11:04
David Reed
I can't stand him anymore.
00:11:07
Joey
Yeah.
00:11:07
David Reed
Um, Yeah, moving down to wide receivers, you know, I'll throw on one time in there too, but the big story here, Stefan Biggs, torn ACL done for the year. I believe he's like 31 years old. It's a contract year. So that is a rough hit. I'm not sure how much fantasy relevance he has. I'm sure he'll get back on the NFL field at some point, but we'll see if he.
00:11:29
David Reed
Contributes fantasy again Christian Kirk fracture cholera bone also done for the area And I felt like he had something like this last year, but someone double check that for me But I feel like people have like what miss most of the season last year for a similar injury But with this is also brutal for the Jags because Brian Thomas jr Also left with a rib injury was hearing initially that it could be a missing two to four weeks Now it's hearing that there's some optimism. He's questionable. Maybe he gets in, but just understand that this is a very questionable situation for him and it could have been missed sometimes if there's not a lot of past catchers in Jacksonville. Deebo Samuel, who missed last week or two weeks ago, I should say with an illness.
00:12:08
David Reed
Came back, played this week, had a rib injury. Uh, he'd left the game and everything. I feel like the 49ers, everyone's are dropping on flies there, but it sounds like he should be good and come back after the bide. Sterling Shepherd who ascended to the top of the, uh, what receiver, uh, uh, ranks there. He, uh, got a hamstring injury. So he's going to be missed multiple weeks and T Higgins, uh, last minute quad injury. This was like in practice and.
00:12:35
David Reed
Completely missed this is the most bizarre thing. It only happens to Higgins So this guy's very frustrated owned and I'll see he's questionable for this week too. So So Mike Williams 2.0 Joe, how do you feel about him?
00:12:48
Ryan
I knew you were going to say that.
00:12:48
Joey
I mean, I'm certainly not confident that he's going to play this week. um Yeah, we we're texting about this. It's just like it's not it's it's not an ideal situation um that several times now you're looking at you know like just getting notifications on Sunday morning that
00:12:56
David Reed
Yeah we were i
00:13:11
Joey
You know Higgins is suddenly questionable or not expected to play because he has some kind of like a random soft tissue injury that was like came out of nowhere.
00:13:14
David Reed
That's from nowhere.
00:13:18
Joey
Yeah, so we don't love that.
00:13:23
Joey
Also um curious what you think. um So from a digs perspective. um
00:13:33
Joey
Tank Dell last year was very good when it was just he and Nico. Obviously, Nico's still out right now, so it seems like Tank's going to be the only show in town.
00:13:45
Joey
but Tank's been kind of underwhelming this entire season, a bit mostly. So curious if this will mean a little bit of a return to form for him from what he was last year, or if that was really just kind of the exception versus the rule. And ah this is what we should, you know, his his production this year is more of what we should actually expect moving forward. um So yeah, that was that was kind of the one thing that I thought about ah in regards to that Diggs injury.
00:14:15
David Reed
Yeah, um I mean, I'm, Tankdale's gonna have more value. I don't see how he doesn't have more value going forward.
00:14:20
Ryan
Yeah, he has to.
00:14:22
David Reed
Yeah, like he'll get the target, he'll look good. I think it's who else now steps up on here is it's Dolan Schultz, Xavier Hutchinson out of nowhere. But I think Tankdale will be useful again, where you he was like, you almost had a bench him, but I don't know, Ry, how are you feeling about that situation?
00:14:41
Ryan
Yeah, that's what I would think. I mean, he has to be more valuable than before, right? Tiggs is gone and like you said, Niko Collins is hurt right now too. so he's going to be the guy and then, you know, presumably we'll still have a lot of value when Nikko comes back and he slots back into that wide receiver two role.
00:14:57
Ryan
So it'll be interesting to see if he can turn the season around a little bit. And then for the Jags, you know, been really excited for Brian Thomas Jr. this year. He's been looking great.
00:15:08
Ryan
Hopefully he doesn't miss too much time, but we'll also be interesting to see if he has even more value now with Christian Kirk being done for the year. So yeah.
00:15:16
David Reed
Yeah, honestly, Evan Ingram is wheels up. He's going to get like 20 receptions this week.
00:15:19
Joey
okay Yeah.
00:15:21
David Reed
Honestly, I might just ladder his receptions right now. I might just take a look at that bet. He's going to get so many.
00:15:27
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, there's no one else to throw too, so.
00:15:30
David Reed
Yeah, and he's already the security blanket for Lawrence.
00:15:33
Ryan
Yeah.
00:15:35
David Reed
There's only more more target chair coming his way. And finally, just throwing this out, TJ Hockinson. Looks like he's playing, making his debut. Let's do it. My team's getting back, baby. Let's go.
00:15:45
Joey
Yeah, it'll be interesting. We talked, we mentioned him a little bit last week too, like what that means for the offense and where the, where, I dunno, it probably means less targets for Jordan Addison, which is frustrating to me because I feel like he should be getting more targets as is.
00:15:57
David Reed
All three targets. All three targets are going to go away.
00:15:59
Joey
Yeah. Like it if it fucking kills me. Um, but I guess it's, it's not, it's not even his fault. It's just, you know, this is the the function of having Justin Jefferson wide open on every single play.
00:16:11
David Reed
green yeah
00:16:12
Joey
Like why would you throw it to anybody else? So.
00:16:15
David Reed
He also makes a wild catch every single week. That's just like no one else is making this catch, whether it's getting his body part in, like there's a bobble one right along the lines. Like no one's getting their feet in trying to make that play where it's like on his helmet.
00:16:28
David Reed
But of course he does.
00:16:29
Joey
Yeah. Yeah. He is ridiculous.
00:16:33
David Reed
Yeah, and then ah moving over to some other updates that happened this week. Deontay Johnson was traded to the Ravens. So there's but everyone thought he was going to get traded from the Panthers at some point before the trade deadline. Ravens were not high on that list of places that people thought he would be ending up. So what is your take on Deontay to the Ravens, the impact for him, all the Ravens, and then potentially on the Panther side as well?
00:17:01
Ryan
Yeah. I mean, I think it's, it's gotta to be a good thing for him to get off the Panthers. Um, you know, I don't know if I would say the Ravens is like a super great landing spot, but I think if anything, I'd be more curious in how it's going to impact day flowers. Uh, you know, does his value take a little bit of a hit now? I don't know, but I think you gotta at least assume he has some more value.
00:17:29
Joey
Yeah, I mean, I think that ah Baltimore's passing offense is so unpredictable to begin with. um And I guess maybe they've normalized a little bit lately and it seems like, you know, like Mark Andrews is getting back into somewhat of like a decent ah rhythm of targets and he scored a couple touchdowns. I don't know if it just kind of like clutters the I don't know if it just kind of like clutters the the wide receiver room and you know just tries to create more, what's the word I'm looking for? Like competition for targets when they when they don't even really want to throw the ball much to begin with.
00:18:10
Joey
um
00:18:10
Ryan
Yeah, that's kind of how I was feeling.
00:18:10
Joey
ah
00:18:11
Ryan
Like I and don't think he just steps in there and has a huge role. There's not like this huge passing game that they have that he'll be a massive part of, which is why I would, if anything, be a little more concerned with the other guys because they're going to lose a little bit and they already weren't the top, you know, part of the attack.
00:18:31
Joey
Yeah.
00:18:32
David Reed
Yeah, I mean, I think amazing for the Ravens is often only gets better. Obviously they just lost to the Browns, which we'll get into, but I think the Ravens as a whole gets better. Deontay's floor comes down a little bit because he was getting so many targets. But honestly, that was with Andy Dalton and if the Panthers are moving forward, Bryce Young like they are this week.
00:18:53
David Reed
Maybe it is actually an improvement because of for what he was going to expect in Carolina, but he has a flowers probably comes down a lot. The biggest one Rashad Bateman, who was like, I was getting higher on with each passing week, kind of the wheels come off there.
00:19:05
Joey
Yeah.
00:19:09
David Reed
I don't know if you can really rely on Bateman
Betting Recap and New Strategies
00:19:11
David Reed
anymore. Seems like he's going to lose a lot of touches. But if anything, I think it helps Lamar. It helps, in my opinion, Derek Henry, because The better the offense is, the more likely they're going to be in a leading position, which means Derek Henry is getting more touches then.
00:19:26
David Reed
So I think it inherently helps him as well. But what about on the Panther side? Because the cover is pretty bare in there. Xavier Leggette, which I'm pumped for, and he has looked pretty good.
00:19:38
David Reed
there's ah I think he's a Jalen Coker. Coker is his last name.
00:19:42
Ryan
Yeah, Coker.
00:19:43
David Reed
yeah He's an interesting player as well. I think he had a pretty good game this past week. so These are players that, in Dynasty, their own Coker maybe was on waivers, but he he should have been scooped up before. So maybe you got all of a sudden and some some level value. But yeah, I mean, with those targets going away, other players hopefully have to step up.
00:20:08
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, they'll get the targets. It's just how valuable are those targets right now?
00:20:12
David Reed
Mm-hmm.
00:20:13
Ryan
Not too valuable, but you know they are the top one to wide receivers on the team now. so
00:20:20
Joey
Adam Thielen, baby. I think I picked him up.
00:20:21
David Reed
Yeah.
00:20:23
Joey
he's I mean, he will be back. I think he's supposed to be back this week. um So like from that disgusting, like. Basically torn hamstring that he suffered.
00:20:34
Joey
What was that week three? um So I honestly think he'll have a decent amount of value to as crazy as it is to say it's not going to look good or feel good, but I think he'll put up. Points, you know, not a lot of points, but.
00:20:50
Joey
maybe somewhere in the 8 to 12 points per game range the rest of the season, which is not which is not exactly what you want.
00:20:54
David Reed
Yeah.
00:20:57
Joey
But hey, if you need somebody to just throw in there in a flex or a second or third flex to just get you double digit points, then you could do worse.
00:21:07
David Reed
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, honestly, he he should get targets and we saw a lot. She probably likes him. So yeah, that's not a bad call. On the other side of that game, Jamis Winston, he led the Browns to a win over these Ravens, which I don't think anyone expected.
00:21:25
David Reed
It might have been like a double do digit spread going into that game. And Winston came up, capped the W. And the offense actually looked good. It scored over 20 points or 20 points for the first time all year. um And you're starting to see a lot of these weapons starting to emerge and like becoming useful. And the biggest one that really popped up is Cedric Tillman as a result of that. I believe he's in his second year right now in Tennessee. But Jared Judy and Elijah Morrill stepped up. So where are you guys feeling about these Browns offensive weapons?
00:21:55
Joey
I like what I see. I think they're going to be pretty good for fantasy. I think they're going to be a pretty good team for um for NFL football, too. Like, I actually think that this is a big upgrade for them and their defense is good.
00:22:09
Joey
So, I mean, like, James makes terrible throws like he there were there were several throws even last game where, you know, yeah, yeah.
00:22:14
David Reed
but no picks, I think it was three times.
00:22:18
Joey
But, you know, I think there will be
00:22:21
Joey
I think there will be um upside for all of their passing offense pretty much the rest of the way as long as he's out there.
00:22:31
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, I feel like everyone kind of wanted this, just it didn't know what was going to happen with Watson with his contract. So ah definitely a positive for the team. And ah oh you got to be excited if you have those wide receivers now.
00:22:46
David Reed
Yeah, how how do you guys feel about Cedric Tillman, who's on my taxi squad? I'm pretty sure I floated it out to every single player or team out in our league and everyone rejected him. Hope you guys are even crow now. But how do you guys feel about Cedric Tillman?
00:23:04
Joey
He looks he looks good, I mean.
00:23:06
David Reed
um me Tell me you love him. Tell me you love him.
00:23:08
Joey
ah But I mean, like, you know, Elijah Moore got what, 13 targets last week? um You know, like the whole offense is, I think I think James is is is right elevating the tide of the entire ah offense.
00:23:14
David Reed
Yeah, but a lot of more things. We've seen this.
00:23:21
David Reed
here
00:23:24
Joey
Tillman along with him, I mean, he's probably the best option. um and I definitely would prefer to own him than the other options, but.
00:23:35
Ryan
I mean, stock is obviously trending up. Do I think he's going to score 25 points a week very often? Probably not, but he's got he's got the potential.
00:23:43
David Reed
probably yes And I, the biggest thing was Cooper leaving too, because he played the same exact role as Cooper every time he was on the field. Previously, he was kind of out of position. He needs to be that outside X receiver. Um, and he's getting those opportunities now. And then you have a quarterback like Winston who th throws to the X receiver downfield and that's currently a match made in heaven. Hopefully he continues. Um, and then finally, so I talked about some good news on my team. Uh, I'll talk if about some bad now.
00:24:11
David Reed
So the Colts are benching Anthony Richardson, my quarterback, for Joe Flacco. So this thanks for Anthony Richardson owners, but he was very bad at his quarterback, and but I think this raises the tide for all pass catchers. So how are you guys feeling?
00:24:31
Joey
Yeah. um Yeah.
00:24:33
Ryan
Yeah, exactly that. i don't I mean, what is Anthony Richardson's value if he's getting benched like that? And then you know the whole thing where he took himself out of the game because he was tired. I mean, you can't do that. So definitely ah tough if you're an Anthony Richardson holder.
00:24:52
David Reed
The unawareness of that, you couldn't do it. The fact that he just announced it too, it was like, oh yeah, I was just thinking, it like, what are you doing, man?
00:24:58
Joey
Just needed a blow.
00:24:58
Ryan
It's like,
00:24:58
David Reed
Like, you can do it, but don't say it.
00:25:00
Ryan
yeah
00:25:00
Joey
Literally just literally just tapped on his head like like like like I need a blow Yeah Yeah, yeah, I I i Immediately live bet the Colts plus seven for like a hundred bucks thinking that flacko was gonna be in the rest of the game and I was like, oh this is great, you know, ah like
00:25:03
David Reed
Pretend you're hurt if you're tired. Do not say you're tired.
00:25:08
Ryan
He was like...
00:25:08
David Reed
Everyone thought he was hurt too. They kind of said, oh no, he he took a shot. It's like, nah, just need a breath.
00:25:13
Ryan
Just tired. He literally was smiling in the press conference after admitting it too.
00:25:30
Joey
Hammer Colts. And then he was right back in there on the next play. um So I mean, they covered it anyway, but it, you know, his laziness nearly cost me money.
00:25:39
David Reed
can't have that. um But you know, if you have the pass couchers like Josh Downs, who looked awesome, and Michael Pittman, who definitely is a ah ah best friend of the type of quarterback that Flacco is, and honestly, even Jonathan Taylor, like, I think all these players have all leveled up big time. So Honestly addition by subtraction probably and this step definitely helps the the Colts chances of making a push for the playoffs but Stinks if you own Anthony Richardson right now. I do think Anthony Richardson like this maybe is the better way to ah Get him to progress a bit more is like learn from Flacco not be thrown into the thrones of game action We've seen that cripple a million young quarterbacks already. So hopefully this is better for him long term, but Yeah
00:26:27
David Reed
for the near term, this definitely stinks and trying to find a hole, fill this hole right now.
00:26:30
Ryan
<unk> Yeah, I don't know if you can spend that one positively.
00:26:36
David Reed
It's not positive right now, but I'm saying it could honestly, so it happened to Bryce Young, so it happened to Darnell, see it with a lot of these young quarterbacks, they start off if they are not good, they get their terrible very early and their confidence is a shot. So that's a hard, honestly, that's a harder thing to come back from is if you lose confidence at quarterback, but Honestly, getting bench doesn't help, but you know, he's laughing about being tired, so maybe it's okay.
00:27:00
Ryan
yeah
00:27:00
David Reed
so okay
00:27:03
David Reed
All right, well, with that, into the main event here. Like I said, we're eight weeks in, we got a little bit more data, seeing how these rookies are performing. so And obviously, we all do rookie drafts early, right after the NFL draft season. that's before you even know how the debt charges are going to pan out. So you make your bets early, now we're going to see which of these bets are starting to pay off, if there's any picks that we would adjust compared to what we did in our personal rookie draft. So we're going to do a read you draft. We're going to do the first two rounds, so the first 24 picks.
00:27:39
David Reed
we're gonna draft all players again this is super flex tight end premium that we drafted right now Joey did a randomizer he's gonna have the first pick we heard that he did the randomizer and got that and then I'll have the second pick and Ryan will be the third and then we'll just keep cycling through that order but with that said Joe why don't you kick it off
00:28:01
Joey
Yeah, so I will kick it off with a tough one between two guys here, but I am going to go with Jayden Daniels. um I think that he has just shown and a level of upside in the first couple of weeks that um um You know Caleb has looked very good, but I just I like what I've seen from Daniels a little bit more and as a passer as a rusher. I think that him offering that aspect of.
00:28:40
Joey
being able to rush ah for touchdowns and um pretty sizable chunk yardage. I mean, the play he got injured on was like a huge rush. And he's been averaging, I don't know, something in like the 40 to 50 yard range ah for rushing yards a game at least. So um yeah, I think I would go Daniels in SuperFlex.
00:29:03
Joey
and um In a non-superflex, that would be, um my pick would be different, but just in our format, I i would go with the quarterback.
00:29:16
David Reed
All right, well, I have the second pick, and my pick might be closer to in line to your non-superflex pick, because I agree, Daniel's to me was the 101, he was the 104 in our draft, so you got good value there, Joe. But for me, I'm actually gonna be going with Neighbors here. You can call it a Homer pick, but I really think Neighbors is like a game changer wide receiver that has the potential to be top seven, top five easily. um And like, ah you can argue who's the better receiver between Harrison and neighbors. I think neighbors on talent right now is proving out to be the better one. Harrison maybe has the better QB situation, even though Collier hasn't really looked that great so far. Obviously there's a quarterback you can go here as well, but so far it's been
00:30:03
David Reed
And for that quarterback, we'll get into it. There's, and I, I still think he'll be a solid quarterback, but I'm, uh, I don't have as much conviction that he will guarantee the top 10 quarterback, uh, going forward. He's had a lot of like major Doug games. And when you're picking in the top of your rookie draft, getting a solidified stud that, you know, was going to stay a stud forever is a very valuable to me. So even though I know that quarterbacks carry that extra value and super flex, I have.
00:30:30
David Reed
Full confidence as a neighbor is gonna be an elite option for like seven plus years. So at this pick, I'd be going neighbors. I don't know if that's spicy. How do you guys feel about that?
00:30:41
Ryan
I don't think it's too spicy. I don't hate it. I think it it's a little dependent on what your team needs. Like if you're desperate for a quarterback, then I think it's a little spicy.
00:30:50
David Reed
Yeah.
00:30:51
Ryan
But um yeah, I mean, he obviously looks great. So ah should be ah a stud wide receiver for a long time.
00:30:57
David Reed
Mm-hmm.
00:30:58
Ryan
ah Yeah, go ahead, Joe.
00:30:58
Joey
Yeah. No, I just, I'll keep it brief. i I still think I would take Harrison over neighbors, but I don't mind it. I don't think it's spicy. I just think it's, it's obviously not as cut and dry as it was, you know, eight weeks ago.
00:31:12
David Reed
Yeah, I agree.
00:31:13
Ryan
yeah Yeah and I didn't think Kelly Blooms was going to fall to me so I will take him at third. um i was ah I'm sure he'll go relatively soon here. I was leaning towards the tight end just because I felt like in a tight end premium dynasty league.
00:31:32
Ryan
he'd have a lot of value. um But I don't know, I still don't think you can pass up on Williams. I do think he'll have a long career. ah Like Dave said, he's had three weeks that were pretty much a dud, but he's had two weeks and they're the more recent weeks where he was QB six and QB one overall. um So I think he can still come on strong and he's got a lot of targets and a lot of talent on that team. ah So I think he's got a long strong career ahead of him and I'd still go with him.
00:32:03
David Reed
Yeah, I like to pick there. Hard to, hard to argue against that. He's got the weapons there and I agree. I still have money on his over yardage, even though it's getting tighter with these low yardage outputs every now and then, but I still think he'll have a solid career.
00:32:18
Ryan
Yeah. And again, I think it's a little team dependent. Like if you have two QBs that you're really confident in for the next couple of years, ah potentially it would have gone with a different pick. But if you're just going based on how valuable someone is in the rookie draft, I'd take Williams.
00:32:37
David Reed
All right, back to you, Jeff.
00:32:40
Joey
Yeah, so this one's easy for me. It's definitely going to be Marvin Harrison. i think I think collectively we're probably too low on Marvin Harrison. um i think if any other not any other I think in the majority of of rookie drafts with our scoring settings and roster format and whatnot, Marvin Harrison would still go in the top three picks.
00:33:05
Joey
um So you know I think whoever was picking fourth here in this particular draft would be getting good value with him. um There's been some weird things going on with that offense in general, but he still looked great. And i've you know as as the season goes on, it it appears like he's building a little bit more of a rapport with Kyle Murray.
00:33:31
Joey
And frankly, Kyler has been a little off for the majority of the season himself. So i've yeah, I mean, i i i my confidence in Marvin Harrison is still pretty high. So for me, that would be an easy pick here.
00:33:46
David Reed
So you say to top three, who's the one that gets dropped out in our draft here?
00:33:46
Joey
and
00:33:50
Joey
ah So for me at 101, I was between Daniels and Harrison. um So if it was me and I was ranking the top four, I think I would go Daniels, Harrison, Williams neighbors.
00:34:10
David Reed
Interesting, interesting.
00:34:11
Ryan
Yeah, I feel like with Harrison, it's almost just that everyone expected him to come in and put up 20 points a game because it was Marvin Harrison Jr. And so he's had a little bit of a slow start, and that's almost hurt him. Whereas you know some other top wide receivers, even if they've had some off games, it didn't hurt them as much because the expectations weren't as high.
00:34:34
Ryan
um So I obviously do agree. I think long-term he's going to be great. And it does seem like he's establishing more of a connection with Kyler Murray. So hopefully that grows and he turns into the stud everyone thinks he will be.
00:34:47
David Reed
Yeah, for me, I would have personally dropped out Caleb from that tough war and put Caleb at four, but. because I think neighbors is just a better fit. And don't worry, I think Harrison's like an elite option too. So I don't wanna, don't hear what I'm not saying here. He's not bad and I'm not trying to be down on him. I just think neighbors has proved out to be a more explosive player that Harrison doesn't have that love type of game on him. He doesn't have like the yak ability. He doesn't get as much inspiration. That being said, he does look very good and I think it's been more on Kyler than har Marv so far.
00:35:20
David Reed
Yeah, with that too, I mean, it leaves it again, another layup pick for me here at five. And it's someone, I think all of us. What, if it was a not super flex, this would be an easy top three pick in the tight end premium. And even without his prop hours. Uh, and he was the one Oh five in our pick and our draft too. So props to the team that who had that, uh, who knows to go that early on him, but he looks like.
00:35:44
David Reed
probably the title i one in all of dynasty right now the guy is he's just special and he doesn't look like he should be like that when he's not wearing football bats he does not look athletic but when he's on a football field the guy is an absolute beast of a player I don't know if you guys have different takes in there but he is the number one option there in Vegas yep
00:36:03
Ryan
Yeah, now I wanted him. so I was hoping you wouldn't take him.
00:36:07
Joey
Yes.
00:36:07
Ryan
And I think he's ah he's easily the pick there. I think those were the top five guys. And I think, you know again, depending on the makeup of your team, I feel like Bowers could go even higher if you really needed a tight end because he's he's looking like a stud.
00:36:24
David Reed
Honestly, I'm fine with him. Anywhere in the first, after the one on one, I'm fine with him anywhere. I think Danos is a clear one on one. After that, I think any of the other guys based on your team and your preference, I think you can go.
00:36:37
Joey
Yeah.
00:36:38
Ryan
Yeah. So yeah, I feel like those were the top five, and this is where it starts to get a little interesting. um I'm actually going to go with Brian Thomas Jr.
00:36:49
David Reed
I like it.
00:36:49
Ryan
Feel like he's had a great season so far, although he's a little injured now. Hopefully he's not out long. Christian and Kirk just went out for the season. um Seems like he has some chemistry with Trevor Lawrence.
00:37:02
Ryan
He's had three top 10 wide receiver finishes already in eight games. so I see a future there and I feel like he could turn into a really good wide receiver for the foreseeable future, so that'd be my pick there.
00:37:17
David Reed
I love it, that would've been mine as well. I think he he looks like the real deal there.
00:37:23
Joey
Yeah, I agree. That that was the direction I would have gone as well. um For me um at seven, I think that I would still be going with Roma doomsday here. He hasn't really done anything to show that he was not um worthy of the high draft capital. It's just he's in an offense right now where there's other um competition for targets and they've all just kind of been suffering the the struggle of having a rookie quarterback. I mean, not every rookie quarterback is comes in like Jane Daniels and it's actually a lot more common for rookie quarterbacks to to struggle a bit. That being said, I still think that Adunze has shown flashes of his potential and you know between him and
00:38:21
Joey
other options at this pick would have probably been the likes of Xavier Worthy and Lad McConkie and company, Keon Coleman. um I still like the player Odunte better than those guys and the potential. So that's who I'd be going with here.
00:38:41
David Reed
Yeah, I don't, I don't hate that big, especially when you're looking at those other wide receivers, I'd probably probably still lean or do and say, I mean, you've seen the talent there and I still believe in the talent. You know, one of those wide receivers I don't believe in. So I would not be picking him. I think that guy is a couple of tears further down, if we're going to be honest.
00:39:01
David Reed
So this to me is when the drafts are getting a little bit hairier. There's still, I think, a tier of players that I lean into, and and it's mainly gonna get boosted because of the is it positional boost that we get in super flex. And I'm gonna go with Drake May still. Even though there's another quarterback who I am liking, well, has looked pretty good from at least a fantasy perspective, Drake May looks like he,
00:39:28
David Reed
lawss and like he hit was very split off he's out of concussion But from his passing abilities, he's throwing the ball downfield. he's He's very sharp, but he also has some rushing and mobility that I like a lot. and i think He potentially could be a longer term quarterback with a potentially higher ceiling than the other quarterback that I was looking at here.
00:39:47
David Reed
So at 108, I'd be going with Drake May, which I believe is a around where he was picked. Yeah, he was the 109 in our draft. And just to give a little props to the the Brian Thomas.
00:39:58
Ryan
Thank you.
00:39:59
David Reed
Brian Thomas was the when we drafted, and he's all the way up to 106 right now. So that's the biggest boost so far we've seen in picks. But Drake may have to guess you'll know.
00:40:10
Ryan
I like it, but I'm gonna pick who I'm assuming you were referring to that I personally think I would take over Drake May, which is Bo Nicks.
00:40:19
David Reed
Yep.
00:40:20
Ryan
um Just put up a monster game for touchdowns 35 fantasy points, but he's looked good as of late his last four games He has three top ten QB finishes nine touchdowns to one interception seems to really be coming on and You know, there's really not any quarterback competition there He's you know by far the starter and is having a great year.
00:40:20
Joey
Hmm.
00:40:47
David Reed
Yeah, his underrated rushing ability I think is like really helping him out here.
00:40:48
Ryan
I
00:40:52
Joey
Yeah, it's been surprised. Well, not surprising because they that was part of his skill set. But um yeah, i I think that is definitely yeah an underrated part of it part of his game. And if he's able to make the throws, which like you said, he's been looking good on downfield throws. so um Yeah, I mean, so here's my thing about ah the difference between May and May and Nix is definitely that dave to Dave's point, um the the the longevity that you're going to get out of May, I think is just a little bit more um secure than with Nix. um i I feel like with Bo, you know, while he's looked pretty good,
00:41:41
Joey
I'm just not totally, totally sold on him from a longevity standpoint. So that's that's where between those two I lean towards um May over next as you guys have it.
00:41:53
David Reed
Appreciate the confidence it's there. I picked you. But honestly, both players, I think, are proving out to be pretty valuable. But back to you, Jeff.
00:42:03
Joey
Yeah, so I was looking ahead to see um about who my next pick was going to be. And I think that we're going to go with um none other than your favorite savior worthy.
00:42:17
David Reed
Too early. Way too early.
00:42:19
Joey
No, I think this is the right spot for him.
00:42:19
Ryan
i
00:42:19
David Reed
yeah
00:42:22
Joey
I really do. He's he's shown flashes. And in i know I know that you're going to say he's not
00:42:29
David Reed
Sure about that, you sure about that?
00:42:31
Ryan
but
00:42:31
Joey
I know that you're going to say he's not he's not a target earner. he's He's still gotten eight targets the last two weeks.
00:42:37
David Reed
Well, yeah, he hasn't cracked 40 yards in like a month and a half.
00:42:42
Ryan
He does have five touchdowns.
00:42:42
David Reed
yeah
00:42:44
Joey
i think that I think that he's a good player. i I really do. I think he's a good explosive player that when we talk about like longevity, He's, he's young, only 21 years old. He's on a good team and a good offense. And it just kind of feels like there's going to be value there. And if I'm putting like stacking him up against, you know,
00:43:07
Joey
the likes of lad mcconkey and key on Coleman na and I don't I Mitchell and some of these other guys that are left on the board right now at the wide receiver position. um There's just so much more upside with worthy and I don't don't tell me saviorly get or any I just it's I feel like you're.
00:43:24
David Reed
Xavier Leguet is ah more consistent than where they were being honest.
00:43:27
Joey
Maybe he's more consistent, but ah like there's so much more upside with worthy so.
00:43:27
David Reed
there
00:43:32
David Reed
he's not even If Xavier Leguet was playing with Mahomes, he would be putting a much bigger staff.
00:43:33
Ryan
hu
00:43:39
Ryan
Well, I think that's part of it though, right? I mean, Worthy is tied to my homes, but how do we feel about ah DeAndre Hopkins coming into town?
00:43:47
David Reed
Doesn't matter, Worthy gets three targets anyway. like he He's not part of the game. he's like He's only scripted, gadgety plays. He's not a wide receiver. They have to script specific plays for him. But anyway, I don't agree with you. You've heard my spiel of him. But I'm not worried. it does I don't think it impacts Worthy personally, because I think it' they needed someone to fill that power slot role. And they didn't have actually an X on the white outside. so
00:44:13
Joey
Yeah.
00:44:13
David Reed
Yeah. Well, that's a gift because I was between two players, but I'm going to always get lean wide receiver if I can. I think loud McConkie is a tier or two above worthy in my opinion. um I mean, he's already shown.
00:44:29
David Reed
the ability to have the like major upside this past week. He's got great route running. He's very fast. He can break away from defenders, good hands. And he's also tied to a very good young quarterback. And I think he's only continue, going to continue to get better as the year progresses. So, uh, lad McConkie, I'm very, I would be very excited to get at the back of the first round here. Um, that's a round where he came in our draft as well, but I think he's a very useful piece for any team.
00:44:58
Ryan
Yeah, I actually do like him. I mean, he's the wide receiver one for Herbert right now, and he just had a monster game last week, so I like that bet.
00:45:05
David Reed
and
00:45:06
Joey
Thank
00:45:09
Ryan
I don't love this pick, but I'm gonna go with Jonathan Brooks here.
00:45:10
Joey
you.
00:45:14
David Reed
Okay.
00:45:15
Ryan
I feel like, you know, he's, yeah, first running back off the board, he's gearing up for his first start.
00:45:16
David Reed
Feels like the right time for him now.
00:45:22
Ryan
They did just trade Johnson, so I feel like they need someone to step up. And with Bryce Young at QB again, they're probably gonna be relying on the run a bit. So, you know, untested and still to be seen what he will do, but I feel like you could take a shot on him here.
00:45:42
David Reed
All right. Well, I agree. And I just want to throw this out because... This, there was basically of the first 12 picks that we just made. 11 of them were first round picks, I believe in our draft as well.
00:45:57
David Reed
Trying to identify, I would be one player who was not in the first round was Bo Nix.
00:46:02
Joey
Go next.
00:46:02
David Reed
Was the only one that he was at the 202 in our draft. So he got a bit of a boost at the 109 here. The one that dropped out, it's kind of injury related.
00:46:12
David Reed
We'll see if he gets drafted, but it was JJ McCarthy was, well lone rookie who was in the first round in our draft that slipped out here. but
00:46:21
Ryan
That's actually really crazy when you think about it because usually there's obviously some misses in the first round and we're basically saying except for one injury, no first round picks have missed yet.
00:46:32
David Reed
Yeah, couple of shifting around of values, but again, for the most part, we're like we're pretty set here.
00:46:34
Ryan
Yeah.
00:46:36
David Reed
And honestly, this is where things, in my opinion, is when the draft's gonna start getting kinda weird and you're gonna see some bigger disparity.
00:46:41
Ryan
Yeah. which just shows how valuable first round picks are. I mean, pretty much everyone hit on their first round pick, and now, like you said, second round's gonna get interesting.
00:46:53
Joey
Yeah.
00:46:54
David Reed
All right, Joe, take it away.
00:46:55
David Reed
Start off the second round.
00:46:55
Joey
Yeah.
00:46:56
Joey
So second round, first pick. So McCarthy is in play for me here, I think, depending on team need. um There's a quarterback, there's a wide receiver, and there's a running back that I like.
00:47:12
Joey
um I'm going to go with the wide receiver. I'm going to take Keon Coleman. um I've liked what I've seen. I owned him in ah in a dynasty league and traded him a couple of weeks ago and traded him away. And I've actually really liked what I've seen from him ever since trading him away the last couple of weeks. He's been more involved and earning more targets. He's got a pretty like substantial average average depth of target. Like his yards per catch numbers are in like the 20 and 30 yards each week. um And he's obviously tied to Josh Allen in a good offense, so that is who I'm going to go with here. If I if I was a quarterback needy team, I would have no problem going with McCarthy here.
00:47:57
Joey
um And if I was a running back needy team, I just want to throw this out there. I'm not sure when he'll actually go, maybe with my next pick. ah But i would I would honestly consider taking ah Bucky Irving and in the second round here. I feel like he's been awesome and he's got a good opportunity in Tampa Bay. So ah he was definitely in somewhat of consideration, although probably the third of those three on my um my priority list.
00:48:23
David Reed
Yeah. Um, so I'm up and actually buckier bringing exactly who I'm looking at right here. I agree. Um, I've scooped it up actually in a bunch of redraft leagues as well. He looks great. He, he like makes him.
00:48:34
David Reed
crazy cuts, and I was not high on Bucky Urban coming into the rookie draft process, and I'm actually should very impressed with what I've seen. JJ McCarthy's definitely someone who I would give a look, but honestly, with the emergent of Darnold and like what's going on with quarterback, I still think McCarthy's the future there. I just think it may take longer now. he I don't think it's a guarantee that he's the starter next year.
00:49:01
David Reed
sees what, we'll see what happens, uh, at the trade deadline. And if they do anything with Darnold, maybe to give him another year since he didn't get to really practice and learn this year. Um, so. I still think McCarthy's own I'm given the look, but if I'm a team that's like trying to get some production earlier, uh, I may lean with the buck earring, but that's going to be my pick right now is bucky earring.
00:49:24
Ryan
Yeah, I like it. We've all talked about how we're not high on weight, although he seems to not go away week after week.
00:49:31
David Reed
Well, he's a receiver now.
00:49:31
Joey
No, he's not going away, yeah
00:49:32
David Reed
yeah Yeah, there's no one else to throw to.
00:49:33
Ryan
Yeah. Yeah. So um he's still there, but Bucky Irving has looked great when he's gotten the opportunities. So ah definitely get the pick.
00:49:44
Ryan
JJ McCarthy, I'm kind of with Dave. I don't think I'm going to take him here. I feel like with Sam Darnold playing so well, it like Murky's his stock a little bit. um Obviously could see him being drafted here if you needed a QB, but I think I'm going to make Dave even happier with this pick and go with Tyrone Tracy.
00:50:09
David Reed
Let's go. That's what I'm talking about. I mean, it looks great.
00:50:10
Ryan
You know, I just got the concussion, but He's been great the last four weeks, like we already talked about. Singletary doesn't look like the guy. He's kind of already taken over as the starter. So to to get us starting running back um around here, I feel like it's pretty valuable.
00:50:27
David Reed
I like it. It's definitely gonna be something. I was between him and Bucky, but it felt like I had to give the props to Bucky and that one, but you know what? You know my heart for Tracy.
00:50:39
Joey
um Yeah, so for me next. um Thought it was going to be. Easy. um I tell you who I'm not picking. I'm definitely not picking Jalen Polk.
00:50:55
David Reed
Yeah, books not going to be in the top 24 picks.
00:50:55
Joey
um
00:50:58
David Reed
I'll be honest.
00:50:59
Joey
Now I think I actually am going to go with JJ McCarthy here. um I know it's such a small sample size, but he looked so good in that one preseason game that he played and.
00:51:07
David Reed
was It was that one pass.
00:51:08
Ryan
Oh, I'm pretty seasoned too.
00:51:09
David Reed
It was just that one pass down the sideline.
00:51:10
Joey
He he he had he played one game and he looked really good in that one game now, but I mean he was like a he was um Not only was he generating buzz in camp prior to that one game that he played but but you know, he was a high like a top 10 draft pick he was drafted where he was because he was ah being like taken on to a quarterback needy team the fact that
00:51:11
David Reed
That looked amazing.
00:51:36
Joey
um there were like those weird rumors floating around about uh... a potential darnold for stafford swap between the vikings and the rams leads me to feel like the vikings are probably a little cautiously optimistic about what they've gotten out of darnold so far and i i probably probably higher on darn darnold than you guys have been or it or over it like the length of his career i still think that You kind of are who you are. And um ultimately,
00:52:13
Joey
i ah you know I think JJ will find his way back into into the starting position here. But um yeah, that's that's that's going to be my choice.
00:52:22
Ryan
Yeah, and I will say on on the flip side of Darnold looking so good is that you would assume if McCarthy does take over that starting job, he's going to look great.
00:52:32
Joey
Yeah, ideally. it's ah it's It's easy to look good when your wide receivers are frequently frequently wide open.
00:52:37
Ryan
Yeah, exactly.
00:52:39
David Reed
And that coaching staff knows how to really get the best out of that quarterback. And the offense kind of elevates that type of play. You saw it all last year, a little backup quarterbacks as well. So I definitely like the pick as well. Again, I think McCarthy's talented there is just more of how long you have to wait before you get to start realizing that. But yeah, I mean, still a guest game. It could be the start of next year. And then this is still a solid pick. For me, it's getting kind of murky.
00:53:09
David Reed
But at this point, I'll probably take a shot on a wide receiver, and I'm between two. um And honestly, this was around, I think this is exactly where I was picking before, and I was between two picks in the real draft, and one of them went right before me, and my pick, easy, but I'm actually gonna double down on my pick that I made here at the 205. Let me go with Laguette. I was between,
00:53:35
David Reed
Also as Ricky Pearsall who finally got on the field after being shot, which is crazy He's all right, but I haven't been too impressed yet, but there I will say with Piersall, his opportunities are growing a lot. so And I'm sure whoever drops him could speak to it, but with IU going down and then Devo, we'll see what happens if he stays on the team next year. There could be more opportunity than you thought you were having Piersall, but I think Laguette is clearly the one now in the Panthers, even though the QB situation s sinks there.
00:54:08
David Reed
he Those type of prospects you usually don't pay off, which is one of the things that we were hesitant upon with Legate coming in. But I'm kind of putting those concerns at bay now, and I think he'll be a solid player with some upside if he keeps progressing. So Legate's the pick here. I'm going for the upside.
00:54:26
Ryan
Yeah. I like it. I think those are the two picks. I'm going to take Pearsall and I do agree. I probably would take look at first. um But yeah, like you said, Pearsall, he's only played two games and you know, Brandon Ayuk is done and Debo Samuel seems to always be dealing with an injury. ah So he's going to probably have a lot of opportunity on that team and it's a good offense to be on. So he's definitely got some upside.
00:54:56
Joey
Yeah, I agree. I mean, not just to like, you know, keep the anti-Laget shtick going because I actually do like Laguette. I was very, very out on him in draft season for a lot of the reasons why the whole kind of like dynasty community was a little bit out on him.
00:55:12
Joey
Like I just, the fifth year of breakout age just like was like a very big turn off for me.
00:55:16
David Reed
Psych never happened.
00:55:19
Joey
Yeah. Um, I like what, I mean, With Piersall, I like the opportunity that he has presented to him for this year. I'm not sure how how that's going to turn into for long-term success. If it was between the two, I would lean Piersall. I would take Piersall first and and then we get ah just because he's in a better offense. And you know hopefully that means more production. But um overall, those would be those would have been my two picks with the last two. um For my pick at the 207,
00:55:55
Joey
Couple guys that I'm looking at here. um
00:56:00
Joey
We're really at a point though where the remaining players, um I think any player who's who's like gotten on the fields and significantly had the opportunity to demonstrate their value like has been selected at this point.
00:56:11
David Reed
Yep.
00:56:17
Joey
um So we're kind of back to picking upside. And for me in this position, I think that would be um Tough call.
00:56:29
Joey
I think I'm going to say I'm between the two backs. I'm between Trey Benson and Blake Corum and I think I would lean towards Trey Benson, so that's going to be my pick um because I mean he has been getting opportunity.
00:56:39
David Reed
Interesting.
00:56:43
Joey
I think that. um He is.
00:56:48
Joey
He's. um Given James Conner's age and contract situation, I feel like he's lining up to be the starter for them in the future. um they This guy like Demarcato.
00:57:05
Joey
uh, gets, get some action.
00:57:06
David Reed
Yeah.
00:57:08
Joey
And that's a little frustrating and concerning from a Benson standpoint. I've been hanging on to Benson in, um, Oh, a couple of leagues throughout the course of like redraft leagues, just like hoping that he turns into something from like an offensive standpoint.
00:57:22
Joey
Um, interestingly enough, this is like the healthiest that James Connor has ever been. Um, but yeah, I still think that the, the, the the The verdict is still out on um what he is and what he can be. And I think that um you're kind of, I'm just kind of like taking the shot at the upside that when he does get the opportunity to be the starter, then he'll still be you know as good as a prospect as we kind of hoped.
00:57:53
David Reed
Yeah, I will say this, uh, this part of the draft is very murky and like, and we should remind ourselves of the mind state we were in when we were drafted. And we thought that the second round was fully flushed as well. And, uh, right now it's, it's tough to pick a player after we've seen some more data. Uh, so just kind of talking and again, Ryan, to your point that second round picks can get, uh, they're becoming more dark throws. Um,
00:58:19
David Reed
I guess I'm leaning towards the back as well. There's like a wide receiver too that I'm kind of interested here, but don't have a ton of confidence in. And and I would probably go with someone I've seen produce a bit more. For me, the picks that I'm really interested in is between Blake Quorum, who you haven't seen a lot of yet, but you you know that the value is there in the office, something like the Kyron. And Ray Davis, who actually looked really good on the field,
00:58:48
David Reed
But James Cook is going to be there for a bit. Another player i just want to throw out there is Berlin Allen, who does look pretty good, but obviously Greece is going to be there. I'm probably still going to lean with the upside of Blake Horne here, just because I'm shooting for upside there. And I don't think Ray Davis has that upside, but I do actually think Ray Davis has been the much more useful player this year. And I think he will be the, cause he doesn't need an injury to be useful. I think he's in the offense. The team likes him a lot. Um, and he looks like he belongs and he actually has made some like downfield catches too. So he has that part of the game, which I don't think anyone realized, but.
00:59:23
David Reed
At this point, in Jeff. I'm, I'm dropping the upside. So I'm going to go with Blake form right now.
00:59:29
Ryan
Yeah, I like it. It just ah depends if he gets the chance, but if he does, could be a good pick. I'm going to actually go with Jalen McMillan, which I'm assuming is who Dave.
00:59:40
David Reed
That was a receiver. I was looking at, I like, I like it.
00:59:41
Ryan
Yeah, Chris Godwin's done. Mike Evans is hurt, so he's about to get a shot at the wide receiver one roll. Baker Mayfield is looking like a stud.
00:59:52
Ryan
Uh, so, you know, there's some upside there. Um, although last game it looked like Kate Otten was potentially the biggest beneficiary so far, but, uh, McMillan is going to have a chance.
01:00:00
David Reed
yeah Yeah.
01:00:04
Ryan
So I'd take him here and, you know, hope for that upside.
01:00:09
David Reed
Yeah, and I think I was in a contract year as well, if I'm correct on that. So like there's a chance that he actually going into next year, he is a top two option there and we'll see what happens with with Evans as he gets older. So I like it. That was, if I was going to go wide receiver of my previous pick, that was the one receiver I was looking at.
01:00:29
Joey
yeah Yeah, I also would maybe given a look to Jordan Whittington, who has actually been really good for where he was drafted. And you know he was probably the best receiver on the Rams team while they're while while they had that period of time that um Cup and Nakua were both out.
01:00:54
Joey
um So just a shout out to him as somebody who went way, way, way towards the back, but probably would end up getting drafted in.
01:01:01
David Reed
Yeah, and and cop they're talking about trading him, so that could open up the door for him as well.
01:01:07
Joey
Yeah. um For me, I think ah between um three guys here, and like again, depending on team need,
01:01:21
Joey
um
01:01:25
Joey
It basically just kind of like my thought process is prop is between panics Mitchell at an I Mitchell and Ray Davis. I think Ray Davis has looked the best of the three on the field so far. So that's who I'm going to pick. um I do think that running backs are a little bit harder to predict in terms of like, will they have value? Will they not have value? So seeing Davis already look explosive and dominate in the opportunities he's gotten.
01:01:54
Joey
um makes that, like you said, like you guys both mentioned, ah a ah ah pretty worthwhile pick. um If I was really desperate at quarterback, I wouldn't hate the idea of stashing panics. And Adonai Mitchell hasn't really been super, super impressive, but he he does get targets. So um yeah, I wouldn't hate the idea of looking at him there either.
01:02:22
Joey
like Comparative to some of the other wide receiver options there like you know Franklin Pope Wilson Corley Burton like none of these guys have really like done all that much I think in terms of like actual targets earned so far um Mitchell has Been better. So that's why I would I think I would lean more towards him from a wide receiver standpoint If I was going wide receiver there
01:02:44
David Reed
Yeah, i I like that pick, and I agree the wide receivers. It's kind of here right now there's no one that I would be excited about. I think they there's players that could be like fine useful players but there's no one that I'm seeing at least a near term path to like true fantasy relevance.
01:03:06
David Reed
So at this is my final pick for this. It's getting a little tough. um Between two players, PENIX definitely gets a look. Probably going to avoid there. The other player I mentioned last time, Breland Allen,
01:03:22
David Reed
But I really, I think, want to give a shout out just because we haven't really hit this position since early on, is a tight end. So there's two tight ends that I'd be looking at right now. One is Ben Sennett, who's obviously, he hasn't been getting a ton of work because Zachary, I believe, is there and he's getting a lot of the targets there. but He's now tied to Jamie Daniels, which would be super valuable and said it does look like he has explosive than this. But another player who I'm like, who's already involved pretty early. And I don't, I think I'm going to end up going with Senate just cause I like the quarter being tied to a better quarterback, but I want to throw out a field. Johnson has actually been very involved and has been for like a rookie tight end has been pretty useful. So someone I'd give a look at, I probably, if I was really drafted and waited a third round to take him, but I just want to call out that he has been solid, but.
01:04:11
David Reed
Here I'd probably go with Senate just knowing how good that Daniels has been and knowing that it takes a couple of years to develop and this is Titan premium that you gotta keep kind of reloading the stock there. So I'd probably take a shout at Senate here.
01:04:26
Joey
Yeah, I like that pic.
01:04:28
Ryan
Yeah, me too.
01:04:28
Joey
He's flashed when he had opportunity and Earths is old as shit, so it's it feels like a ah ah reasonable path to fantasy value.
01:04:35
David Reed
Yeah, exactly.
01:04:39
Ryan
Yeah. Yeah, and then I echo what you guys both said about Penex. I still don't know if I would take him because I feel like he's just going to end up stashed on your bench for who knows how long. Definitely if you're a quarterback needy. Would take him here, but.
01:04:56
Ryan
I'm personally gonna go with Braylon Allen. I feel like he's looked good when given the chance. Obviously, Breeze is there and he's on the Jets, which is never a great thing. So ah it's a bit of a murky situation, but there's definitely upside there.
01:05:15
David Reed
Sure, I like it. I mean he's he's involved in the offense that it's tapered off a little bit But they they definitely like him there too, and I can't believe and he's also we should throw out there I think he's only 20 years old so I don't think he can drink which is again I don't think there's a room I don't think there's anyone who's been as old with a breakout as we get any quarterback that's had as many starts as Bo Nicks before the NFL but also no one who's ever been as young as Braille now I'm pretty crazy
01:05:26
Joey
yeah
01:05:43
David Reed
Yeah, just a couple call outs of us, some major risers. So I believe Bucky Irving, who we took at the 202, he was at the 306 in our draft. So that was a pretty big jump that we're seeing there. Tyrone Tracy. I got him.
01:05:59
David Reed
What is it, the 409 in our draft. He got pumped all the way up to the 203. Part of that too, I should say, a sleeper had his ADP at like 999. So he actually had a search for him. So if you weren't aware, I knew that was suppressed there. So I kind of took advantage. and And then we saw, who else jumped up here? McMillan, John McMillan, he was at the 3.09 and he jumped up all the way to the 2.09, so a full round of a jump. I think when Ray Davis, I believe, was a ah decent jump as well, trying to find out where he fell as well. Ray Davis went from 3.10 all the way up to 2.10, so another full round jump. Ray Davis was actually throwing that at 4.03 all the way up to 2.12.
01:06:45
David Reed
so Any major takeaways, any other players you want to call out that didn't get drafted, do you want to you know honorable mentions?
01:06:54
Ryan
Now I just throw out a ah little congrats to Kanellos. I feel like he's a good drafter. Like we talked about three of the guys he drafted. I feel like he, ah you know, also got puka last year. He seems to hit with those late round picks.
01:07:12
David Reed
Yeah. I hate them for it.
01:07:15
Joey
um Agreed there, and I also think worth mentioning, who did I just see? Isaac Arendelle and Luke McCaffrey.
01:07:23
David Reed
Mm hmm.
01:07:26
Joey
Honestly, I feel like Luke McCaffrey has been ah like pretty involved for Washington. So ah for somebody who was picked later on, I feel like if we flipped over into the third round, he'd probably be one of the next guys off the board.
01:07:42
Joey
So yeah.
01:07:44
David Reed
yeah Yeah, but again, this ah <unk> it's funny doing the draft now away from the NFL draft season because you you I don't know if you guys remember the state of mind we were in about how valuable we thought the second round, first round picks are.
01:07:58
David Reed
and Now we're kind of looking back at it. it just like well It's not as pretty as we thought it was, but it's a mental game.
01:08:04
Ryan
Yeah,
01:08:05
David Reed
So when you're whenre your trading, know you're pretty more valuable around draft season.
01:08:09
Ryan
yeah I feel like it really is eye opening. And I'm sure it's not like this every year, but just the difference between the first round and the second round, even the back half of the first and the early seconds, there's just a huge difference.
01:08:22
David Reed
Yeah, it's massive. But with that, I think we'll ah we'll jump into the kitchen, Jeff.
01:08:29
Joey
Yeah, so it's that time of the week to hop into the Joey Bottles prop parlay and other potentially profitable pick kitchen. um As we have for the last several weeks, me and the guys are going to offer up our personal menu of bets that we have taken or will be taking for the upcoming week. If you want to ride along and share in some profits or potentially share in some profits. um And as always, just a reminder to head over to our dedicated page at signupexpert.com.
01:08:59
Joey
slash NSFW um by going over by going over to that page, you'll be able to see a list of all the sports books that are available in your area and sign up offerings. And we just think that, you know, the more sports books that you're signed up for, the more opportunity that you have to shop for lines, the more value you're going to get, the more money you're going to ultimately end up winning in the long in the long run. So it's a valuable proposition for everybody.
01:09:28
Joey
And if you are going to sign up, make sure you do it through signupexpert.com slash NSFW and show us some love. And with that, we will get onto our pick selection for this week, which admittedly is um a little bit um light,
01:09:53
Joey
I would say. compared to our are are ah previous offerings. um I also will start off by taking a big loss in the form of my Tyreek Hill bets from last week. Those did not end up working out, unfortunately. Tyreek was involved, had a pretty good game, um but only amassed something like 75 or 80 receiving yards. So didn't even get up to 100.
01:10:23
Joey
ah To get us to the first rung of the ladder So not the best week for me um And Dave do you want to recap some of yours from last week, and then we can get into this week's picks
01:10:33
David Reed
Yeah. So while one of my early ones was Higgins and freaking Higgins man didn't even know the playing, uh, it's all right. They avoided that. So I didn't take that loss, but the parlay ended up, it looked great. And like it would have hit the Joe burrow just never threw a second touchdown there. Um, and I think Jeremiah chase came up just short on his yards, but you didn't understand cause they were eating early. And I thought that was part of a lock. So, uh, the, the bangles kind of fell off the rails there and then The other parlay, Jordan Love got hurt, kind of threw it all out of whack there. So I'm not going to say injuries thrilled me, but they kind of did a little bit. But it's all right. It's part of the game. And yeah, it's all right. We're getting back to the the kitchen here. i'm gonna I think even though it's a little lighter, sometimes you just need like a little appetizer to get things going again. So we're going to get those taste buds rolling. But Joe, do you want me to go first or you?
01:11:24
Joey
Yeah, you can go first because I don't have a lot
01:11:26
David Reed
All right, neither do I. I got ah three plays that I'll do take all straight. And again, part of life, it's kind of been my my theme here. And as I ah usually do, I'm identifying two bad defenses generally results in a high over under. In this game, it's a 51 and a half over under. That means that offense has to be scored and those are fun games to bet over props on. So I am targeting the Falcons and the Cowboys.
01:11:51
David Reed
I'm gonna hit some of their star players here. So the the three best I'm gonna be taking straight and parlaying I'm gonna be taking Kyle Pitts over 46 and a half receiving yards currently at minus 101 14 that'll get to minus 110 I think by the time Sunday rolls around this is just earlier lines, but Starting with that then go and see the land over seven and a half reception. That's actually currently plus money at 110 They cannot run the ball at all So like Kyle Pitts is involved for the Falcon side which we've been seeing but CD land is the offense for the Cowboys So that is the only part of the cab talents offense that I feel comfortable leaning on and I think he will be getting plenty of reception Sometimes they're a little short yardage. So that's why I'm hesitant to go on his over yardage, but he will get the catches and And then Bijon, I believe, will be destroying this Cowboys defense on the ground. I think he's gonna go over his 73 and a half rush yards. Hopefully they don't decide this is the week that they give all the touches to Algier, not the time that I actually bet on him. But assuming that that doesn't happen, I think combining all three of those for a plus 559 is a pretty good bet for a solid parlay.
01:13:01
Joey
Yeah, I like him. um I think on pits really has been just but really involved lately, so yeah, yeah.
01:13:11
David Reed
that That line seems too low. I don't know if like there's something to know about it 46 and I feel like he should be at least in the mid 50s of that line, but that's Right it I
01:13:18
Joey
Yeah, no, I honestly I really like that and I might even think about sprinkling on um a little bit of Darnell Mooney to from a passing perspective for Atlanta just because Yeah, when he's so involved every single week.
01:13:31
David Reed
Did a lot of Mooney early in the year too. I like Mooney a lot Yeah
01:13:36
Joey
It's like he's just a lock for 50 60 yards um Yeah, so I like that and what I'll mention on that game is
01:13:47
Joey
Almost every single person that I um respect and follow as it pertains to like um weekly NFL side picks is on Dallas this week, plus three um at Atlanta. And I don't know that I love it. Frankly, i i this is one of those situations where you know I don't know how to interpret. Usually, if I see everybody on one bet, um I'll just Automatically jump right on but i I just what do you guys think about that Dallas plus three at Atlanta? I just feel like Dallas has been such a mess lately and I don't know if this is likes them getting some of their guys back or You know, I don't know. I I just don't know what has changed with Dallas um over the last couple weeks where
01:14:43
Joey
We like them against Atlanta who's actually been scoring points. um So yeah, what do you guys think? i be i be ah I'll be interested to hear the ah handicaps once I have the opportunity to go back and listen to podcasts and hear what these guys actually have to say rather than just seeing the picks go into the various ah bet tracking applications.
01:15:05
David Reed
I do not like putting my money on Dallas ever. Uh, basically like as as a team, I just don't trust them.
01:15:10
Joey
yeah
01:15:13
David Reed
Um, I think they're supremely flawed team, um, that gets overhyped all the time and public money loves. And so I literally just avoid cowboy. So I don't, they are, you said plus three, so they are dogs and like Falcons don't seem to be really throttling teams out.
01:15:29
David Reed
Like they haven't been able to shut the door on teams. They are scoring, but letting other people score. So maybe Cowboys can cover it, but. I would not be taking the Cowboys personally.
01:15:40
Joey
Yeah, good. Glad you agree.
01:15:41
David Reed
I don't know if you've watched the Cowboys or carried on, but I think they stink.
01:15:45
Ryan
Yeah, I mean, I think the Falcons win the game. um But like you said, the Cowboys are already dogs, but not be that much. So yeah, I mean, I would say I agree.
01:15:57
Ryan
i I'd probably be on the Falcons side.
01:15:58
David Reed
is Is Brendan Aubrey still doing jury duty? That's a big factor.
01:16:04
Joey
Yeah, seriously.
Player Prop Bets and League Updates
01:16:07
Joey
Hopefully not for the cowboy's sake. um Yeah, so for my picks, I'm just similar to Dave. I haven't had a ton of opportunity to dive deep into the slate, but the one matchup that I'm most intrigued by and that I will definitely be delving into from a player prop and SGP standpoint is ah Philadelphia at home against Jacksonville.
01:16:27
David Reed
Yeah. Yep.
01:16:33
Joey
I really I think that. ah You can get pretty good value. um Just kind of. loading up a little bit on something as simple as um AJ Brown and Devonta Smith both over 50 or both over 75 or if you want to go really big, both over 100 receiving yards. So just looking at those three combinations, if you parlay the two of them each to go over 50 yards, you basically get even odds plus 105. And if we parlay them both to go over 75 yards, that jumps up to
01:17:12
Joey
um about 5 to 1, 475. And then if you really want to go really big and both over 100 yards, then it goes up to 20 to 1. So I just think, you know depending on the yeah ah how risky you want to get. um if you want to know ah oh If you want a nice, safe one-to-one, then ah I think you could do a lot worse than AJ and Devonta Smith, both over 50 yards.
01:17:46
David Reed
I like it. And i that was one of the games I looked at as well. I think Jags defense always target the Jags defense. They're not going to stop anyone. The one thing I was looking for, and I don't see it on here, and i and I get it, why the books wouldn't have it up here because you don't know what's going on with Brian Thomas. But I alluded to it before. Once we start seeing the lines for Evan Ingram receptions, that might be a ladder. If there's no Brian Thomas, I don't think there is a line that we'll be high enough for the end receptions on there. Um, we did, it wasn't one of our podcast bets, uh, last week, but Joey and I did take later the Kate Auden receptions, uh, last week and that paid out great. And, uh, fortunately I wish we'd lean more to the national tight end day. Uh, but I do want to give props out to Mike Williams in our league who made a massive tight end touchdown, uh, prop parlay bet. And I think it was 25 to win basically 4,500.
01:18:43
David Reed
And it cashed, so that was great.
01:18:46
Joey
Yeah, like almost every tight end scored.
01:18:46
David Reed
Obviously, Mike.
01:18:47
Joey
It was just awesome.
01:18:47
David Reed
Almost everyone. Yeah, it was wild.
01:18:49
Joey
yeah
01:18:51
David Reed
But with that, those are the bets. And you know I think the kid's just going to cook some good things up this week and feel good about it, even though you know it's a little ah quick. Mike, maybe it was an Easy Bake Oven or an Easy Mac dinner that we made tonight because it was very quick.
01:19:06
David Reed
But you know what? It's still going to fill you. But anyway, moving over to the NSFW Dynasty League corner, just going to a quick update on the weekly high and low score that we have. Because you know what? Yours truly finally got a high score. Yes, I broke in after I sold
League Activities and Sports Betting Laws
01:19:23
David Reed
out on my team. I got a score of 168.22.
01:19:27
David Reed
There's a lot of teams above the 160. It was a weird week because like everyone scored over 100 in our league, which means our lowest score, which was Adam and Katz, was 101.16, which is easily the highest low score that we've had. Canals is low of 64.52. From last two weeks ago, still home true. Scottie's high score of 180.52 is still the high point that we have so far.
01:19:53
David Reed
With that being said, any ah final thoughts or anything going on for going into this week? I know I'll be with Ryan and a few other guys leading into Sunday football. So hopefully I can get in their heads or maybe get some trades done. But I don't know if you guys have any parting thoughts before we close things out.
01:20:12
Joey
No, I'm going to Maine did that does anybody know if sports betting is legal in Maine?
01:20:18
David Reed
Check our website.
01:20:21
Ryan
yeah
01:20:21
Joey
Yeah, I'm gonna have to I'm gonna have to go to yeah sign up expert comm slash nsfw and I'll let you guys know Yeah
01:20:23
Ryan
Sign up when you get there.
01:20:24
David Reed
Yeah. ah That's right. We're, we're traveling the States to figure these things out here, guys.
01:20:34
Ryan
and I'll be with Dave, so maybe we'll have some trades cooking up for you guys next time.
01:20:37
David Reed
That's right.
01:20:38
Ryan
Who knows?
01:20:41
David Reed
Breaking news. But with that, thank you all for listening and, uh, good luck in your week nine match-ups. And if you're buying or selling, go all in for it, man. It's fun.