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EPISODE 5: Buy/Sell & Dud Draft
76 Plays1 year ago
We touch upon some highlights we've notice through the pre-season so far as well as give 1 buy and 1 sell per host and finish up with our newly dubbed "dud draft"
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Transcript
Introduction and Reintroduction
00:00:03
Speaker
Welcome to the Nonstop Fantasy Weekly Dynasty podcast. We are here with your hosts, Dave Reed, Ray Wilkinson, and Joey Gallo.
00:00:23
Speaker
Whoo! Man, I almost forgot how good that intro was. Man, it's been a while, but uh, DJ Dirtawerk, thanks again for the beats. Uh, yes, we are back. I am your host, Dave Reed, joined by my co-host, Joey Gallon, Ryan Wilkinson.
00:00:39
Speaker
Been on a bit of a hiatus since our last pod. Summer gets a little crazy, but we are back.
Preseason Player Performance
00:00:45
Speaker
And we are, I believe, in the final week now of the preseason. And we're starting to see some players emerge on the teams and the roster. And some are demerging on the depth chart. And then others have on some unfortunate injuries. And others have some murky situations from some key names like Jonathan Taylor, which we'll get into.
00:01:04
Speaker
But with that being said, I want to throw it out to my co-host. What are some, like, notes or standouts you've seen through the preseason so far? Yeah, I mean, I think for me, sorry, I'll jump in. Probably the offense that, and the players on offense that I think that have surprised me in a favorable way the most have been the Redskins. Sam Howell has looked so proud. But Johan Dotson, Johan Dotson looked great Monday night.
00:01:34
Speaker
their last game. And Terry McLaurin went out with turf toe. Turf toes are notoriously tough to come back. They linger. He may end up being not full strength for a couple of weeks to start the season.
Injuries and Team Impact
00:01:52
Speaker
And if that's the case, I mean, I've been scooping up Diami Brown in a couple of my leagues, a couple of my dynasty leagues, just because he was getting a couple of targets after McLaurin went out, caught the touchdown after McLaurin went out.
00:02:05
Speaker
Um, but Johan Dotson looked great. He was getting targeted, uh, all over the fields and it's not that every one of Sam Howell's throws were great. There were, there were some very, very poor ones mixed in there, but, um, the offense, I mean, the, uh, there's reason to be optimistic about the offense in general under the enemy. And I just think that,
00:02:30
Speaker
Sam Howell's elusiveness in the pocket was notable enough where I think that I'm feeling decently optimistic about Washington's potential this year to produce fantasy points. Yeah, I gotta agree with you there and I was pumped at the beginning because I obviously have Terry but
00:02:54
Speaker
You know, he obviously goes down with an injury, hoping it doesn't linger all season. But, uh, I was a little nervous about that pick, but then Sam Howell looked great. So I thought it was going to turn out great. And, uh, you know, how was my boy? So yeah, yeah, he looked great. Um, a couple of guys, I just think the situation has changed a lot for obviously Jonathan Taylor potentially, you know, traded dolphins are actively pursuing him now.
00:03:22
Speaker
You
Trade Rumors and Player Value
00:03:22
Speaker
know, how does that affect his value? Trey Lance obviously just got traded to the Cowboys. You know, is that good or bad? And then, and then we can go to the opposite side of it. And you got Kyler Murray, who is, you know, trending down right now. So those three guys, I feel like the value has really significantly train changed from when we drafted.
00:03:48
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, for me, I have a bunch of them from the Broncos. There's a couple of Givante. First of all, I mean, I've been banging the drum all off season. I thought he would recover faster based on where the money was going. Like I didn't think they spent a lot on Sumaj P. Ryan. They didn't use a draft capital, but still it's a quite the leap of faith, but it's been looking like it's paying off. He actually got some game action, got a lot of receptions, which is great to see.
00:04:15
Speaker
And just seeing him on the field in general this quickly is pretty impressive. But on the flip side, obviously the Broncos are losing a couple of receivers. Tim Patrick's out for the year. Judy may be out for multiple weeks, but with that Marvin Mims, a rookie who I was very high on coming into draft.
00:04:32
Speaker
has now shot up the depth chart, going to be the wide receiver too there, and I think it has a lot of potential.
Undervalued Teams and Players
00:04:40
Speaker
Other players are like, honestly, I think the Steelers, there's been a major discount on all Steelers, I feel like in draft, they just seem like a boring offense.
00:04:47
Speaker
But Pickett has actually looked pretty decent, hopefully has more than seven touchdowns this year. And George Pickett, who honestly I don't love because he doesn't seem to separate, but just keeps making highlight catches, maybe a little bit offensive passing.
00:05:03
Speaker
fairness in all the plays but he still makes like great great plays that are always every week on twitter um so just fun to watch that um lower person dorian thomas thompson robinson who actually i have picked in a few my rookie drafts he's the um now the number two quarterback back up to shawm watson on the browns he's like great he was actually great in college and he has some rushing ability
00:05:27
Speaker
I think there's a lot of upset there. Once it goes down, I actually think he will be a very, very strong starting option. Anyone to pinch there.
00:05:35
Speaker
But finally, I mean I can't I can't leave out my Giants like Daniel Jones looks awesome. He looks like he might be taking the next step Darren Waller looks like a an elite tight end who is gonna lead the team in targets and is Daniel Jones favorite target, John Hyatt who I
Fantasy Stock Advice
00:05:55
Speaker
had mixed feelings at the draft I I know the the thing on him was that he wasn't a great runner but he's been looking like he's putting a lot of work there and
00:06:05
Speaker
He was the best wide receiver in all of college football last year. Everyone loves Jordan Aniston because he was the best wide receiver in all of college football two years ago. But Hyatt seems to get this discount. And Hyatt, who cares about his route? He's always five yards away from the defender, seemingly. That speed is translating. I don't want to say he's Tyreek, but he has some plays that make him look like he has that type of separation there. So I'm very, very excited about the Giants overall and that offense.
00:06:35
Speaker
I think they're going to surprise a lot of people and potentially improve upon last year. Yeah. I mean, I agree with you on the Giants. And I know maybe some of our listeners are interested in my take on the Javante Williams situation. And honestly, I'm pretty impressed with it as well. I think that as somebody who was a Javante Williams owner and keeper last year, traded him away in the middle of the season. But early in the season, right?
00:07:06
Speaker
It was a lot of his work in the passing game that was generating a ton of his value. He had run some pretty solid runs, but he was also getting targeted like seven, eight, nine times game. So even if he's slow to get back to full burst and full speed from a running perspective, if he's gonna be out there getting
00:07:33
Speaker
you know, six, seven, eight targets a game, he's going to have value right from square one, right? So like, even if he's only averaging three or four yards a carry, and that still needs to ramp up, you know, if he's going to be getting the same targets he was getting early season last year, then he will be a very, very valuable back. So have to have to just say that.
00:07:55
Speaker
And to that point, I think most people's expectations was he would hopefully improve, but it would be like maybe back half of the season. The fact that he's on the field, yes, he still has to get up the game speed. He'll be potentially on a pitch camp, but the timing of that ramp up has been accelerated. Like you can potentially see him at full speed after the first month of the season, which I don't think anyone's expectations truly were even a month ago. Potential.
00:08:22
Speaker
Potentially. But it's in play now. It wasn't really in the realm of possibility before. But I mean, that's just an example of a player's value increasing, which leads me as a segue into the next segment that we have. It's our dynasty stock advice. So first I want to start off, all three of us come from finance backgrounds. So it's hard for me at least not to view fantasy through the lens of treating players kind of like stocks.
00:08:52
Speaker
You have your blue chip stocks.
00:08:54
Speaker
the players who are reliable, high in assets, and they are the foundation of your portfolio or your team. They have very little downside risk and they will continue to provide value year after year. And the more these stocks that you own in your portfolio or on your team, the better off you are. The issue is these type of players, these blue chip players, they are incredibly hard to come by. And the price to actually acquire one of these makes it even harder to do so because sometimes they're astronomical and you can't ever get a deal done.
00:09:24
Speaker
But in Dynasty, where I've seen the real savvy players see their teams improve or make those profits is by identifying cheaper undervalue assets that are about to skyrocket in value and getting in earlier, or identifying an asset that the market still identifies that has a lot of value, but you see the flaws in them and you either like short sell them earlier, like subprime mortgages and the big short.
00:09:51
Speaker
Um, oftentimes he's already been like massive blockbuster trade you have to do to, to improve your roster. Um, these are more like seemingly low and cheap trades. And, but when you hit on these, on these calls that you've made, this is when you see your team's value skyrocket. Um, just an example in another dynasty league. I was in last year in the off season, middle of the summer. Um, I really believe there were Mondry Stevenson. I, I, I was still the path forward. There's flashes of highlights the year before.
00:10:19
Speaker
So I thought there was potential for him to be someone special. And I had Chase Claypool on my team who people still viewed at that time as an extremely exciting young wide receiver who had top 20 potential.
00:10:31
Speaker
I personally didn't because I owned him and I saw like this guy just is not getting it done. Yes, he's big, strong and physical, but I just didn't see him becoming anything special. So I actually at the time was able to flip Chase Claypool and Mo Ali Cox from Ramon Jerry Stevenson and a third round rookie pick. This was just over a year ago from today. So that obviously worked out very well for me. I have a lot of misses as well.
00:10:56
Speaker
don't think I hit on all this, but that was just an example of I saw a clay pool is something that I think the market was too high on, but for Madre who I thought the market was too low on. Also, I should say, apparently, the bears also thought clay pool was really high as they gave it the 32nd overall pick.
00:11:13
Speaker
for him, so obviously a lot of people viewed him pretty highly. But with that in, I want to kind of toss it to my co-host to see some players maybe they think are a buyer sell going forward. So Joey, why don't you throw us one of your players and hold us in suspense on if he's your buyer yourself. Yeah, so I will talk about an ex-New York Jet who has changed teams in the off-season.
00:11:38
Speaker
And it's actually going to be, well, not really too much to spend, but this is going to be my buy and it's going to be Elijah Moore who I was a huge fan of while he was on the Jets. And if you look at the numbers that he put up his rookie year, it took him a little while to get going. And he was hurt towards the end of the season, but between week eight and week 13, he graded out.
00:12:08
Speaker
As the number five wide receiver per PFF sixth in receiving yards tied for first and touchdowns over that stretch and What was what was the most surprising to me was? fourth in passer reading when targeted and obviously we know the Jets are had no stellar option at the quarterback position during that time, so I
00:12:33
Speaker
you know heading into his sophomore campaign even though the Jets added Garrett Wilson. If you remember back to last year's draft season it was people were still drafting Elijah Moore ahead of Garrett Wilson last year. Garrett Wilson was a sixth seventh eighth round pick and it's not a dig on Garrett Wilson at all.
Wide Receiver Value Discussion
00:12:51
Speaker
I just think that Elijah fell out of favor with the Jets and he's a very talented player and he finds himself in a situation now with
00:13:03
Speaker
a quarterback in Deshaun Watson who, albeit is trying to have a little bit of a bounce back himself. He's definitely stronger than any of the options that the Jets would have had over the last, I don't know how many seasons. So for me, Elijah Moore is my primary buy at this point. If you wanna talk about guys that are
00:13:31
Speaker
slightly less of a deep cut than Elijah. Honorable mention for me, maybe a little bit more, I guess, obvious, if you want to call it that. But I'm very high and I'm looking to buy shares in Devonta Smith going into this season. I just think that what I saw from him towards the middle end of last season into the playoffs, just from a target's average depth of target,
00:14:02
Speaker
I just think that it wouldn't surprise me at all going into this year. I mean, AJ Brown last year, obviously almost 1,500 receiving yards. It's tough to divvy up the targets in that offense. But if you look at the previous seasons, AJ had some struggle staying on the field. He played 13 games in 21, 14 games in 20.
00:14:31
Speaker
less receiving yards in his 19, 20, and 21 season than Devontae Smith had in last year's 22 season. So I just think that Devontae Smith going into this year is another one who I would not be surprised if headed into next year. He was being drafted at or around the same place as A.J. Brown and some of these other top tier wide receivers.
00:14:58
Speaker
That's good. I agree with both of those. I know Joe, you and I made a point to acquire Elijah, Elijah more on one of our dynasty leads that we come in together, uh, got him on the cheap. So we feel pretty good about that one. And he's been getting some good hype. Right. Why don't you toss us to about one of your buys or sells? Yeah. So I tried to pick a player that isn't obvious to get people thinking and mix it up a little bit. So.
00:15:26
Speaker
I'll start, you know, to be clear, I think this guy is a very good wide receiver. I think I'll have an awesome year and I'm a believer. But there is a case to be made that it's time to short sell Garrett Wilson. Sell, sell, sell. My concern is he's already considered what you were talking about earlier, Dave, a blue chip stock. I just can't imagine his stock going any higher. If you look on Keep Trade Cut, he's literally the number three wide receiver with
00:15:54
Speaker
you know, Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase, he finished as the wide receiver 30 last year. So to me, there's a ton of built in value based on the fact that he now has Rogers as his QB, but Rogers, you know, a year or two left, maybe then who's his quarterback? We don't really know. So I always get nervous when a player's value is building in something that hasn't actually happened yet. So.
00:16:22
Speaker
Definitely think he's going to have an awesome year and completely understand having him on your team. But if you're looking at Dynasty and looking long-term, he's someone you could get crazy value for right now, even though his best season is a wide receiver 30 finish.
00:16:40
Speaker
I mean, I get it. There's a lot of hype around Gary Wilson. I'd love to acquire him, but at the same time, too, when it comes to selling players, if you can get better value, and I agree, Gary Wilson at wide receiver three is a little high right now to buy into that. I think you could probably make a pretty solid profit on that. You could probably get like another wide receiver one and plus, and that could potentially be worth it. Yeah. And that's my thing.
00:17:09
Speaker
You can't possibly ask for more value than that right now. And if he starts the season and he doesn't have this crazy start to the season with Rogers, his value could start to decline pretty quickly from wide receiver three, you know, until like, you know, 10 or something like that. So it certainly can't really go up his value. The other thing too is.
00:17:31
Speaker
The hard knocks bump is a real thing. People always get hyped about any of the players who are on the team that is featured in hard knocks. So that's probably another thing boosting his value a bit. Yeah. Why don't you give us one of yours, Dave? Yeah. So I mean, this next guy I'm going to talk about, he's a wide receiver. He's 24.6 years old, tied to an elite quarterback, finishes the wide receiver 17 last year.
00:18:00
Speaker
I'm talking about Mr. T himself, T Higgins, who is my sell, sell, sell. This may be a little bit spicy, but he is pretty universally regarded as a backend wide receiver one in Dynasty, and even a fringy wide receiver one in this current year. And honestly, I just can't buy into it. First off, the obvious, for the rest of his career in Sensei, which
00:18:26
Speaker
We, many are expecting him to sign an extension, a long-term extension at the end of this season. He's always going to be the wide receiver too on his team.
00:18:36
Speaker
Granted, with Burrow and no money to build a strong defense going forward, it's not the worst situation because they will be passing a lot, but still that caps his value in my opinion. In the 11 games last year with Chase, he averaged as the wide receiver 54, and to give him a medium to get rid of the outliers, he was the wide receiver 31.
00:18:58
Speaker
And three separate finishes, he finished outside of the top 75 wide receivers. And often sometimes due to injury, but that actually, if you watch how he plays, it's kind of a part of his game. In the four games without Chase, he was solid. He was the wide receiver 24, 23, and even finishes the four and six. But unfortunately, that's not what his future and sense he's going to be. He's going to be behind Chase for the rest of his career if he signs there.
00:19:24
Speaker
He isn't a volume receiver, he's a deep ball guy, and he barely eclipses the 1,000-yard mark. And for just being a jump ball 50-50 wide receiver that you usually expect to have a lot of red zone targets, he's not really been a big TB guy. These are his stats in his three-year career so far. In 2020, he had 107 targets for 67 receptions, 908 yards, and six touchdowns. 2021.
00:19:54
Speaker
110 targets, 74 receptions, 1,091 yards, and 6 touchdowns. 2022, eerily similar, 110 targets and 74 receptions, same as last year, for 1,029 yards and 7 touchdowns. I honestly do not see the difference between T Higgins and his slightly younger Mike Williams. Mike Williams was also given the hype at one point of being a top
00:20:22
Speaker
10, the top 10, top 12 wide receiver, never really got there long-term and die to see, and I don't see the same ever happening for T Higgins. At best I see him being a, at his peak, a middle tier wide receiver two for a few years. Maybe he has one outlier year for touchdowns that boosts his value, but that's not something you're going to be able to depend on. But right now you can cash in on that wide receiver one value, and I think you'll benefit from it.
00:20:49
Speaker
So again, T Higgins, myself, myself, myself. Yeah, I agree with everything you said there, but the comparison against Mike Williams, I would refute a little bit. I mean, the stats would not. Mike Williams, Mike Williams has had as many total receptions and yards as T Higgins. So T Higgins, three year career, Mike Williams, six year career, Mike Williams in six years has had as many receptions as
00:21:18
Speaker
T Higgins worst year, right? So his worst year was 67 Mike Williams eclipse 67 receiving yards of one time and My words also had a nine year a nine touchdown year and a ten touchdown year, right? Well, right that's the best case in your side is your touchdown year to touchdown year I mean if we're just talking about like III understand the logic of T Higgins being
00:21:44
Speaker
More of a jump ball guy, but he's also like a big presence over the middle down the field that I would say Mike Williams is more of a Like a strictly vertical threat whereas T Higgins. I mean I like we think about His his over the his over the middle like crossing route I
00:22:09
Speaker
participation is to me, I mean, again, this is just an objective take based on like the eye test, which you're not really ever supposed to just believe the old eye test. But yeah, I would say from like, just from a route participation perspective, T Higgins is a little more of an over the middle threat than vertical.
00:22:29
Speaker
Oh, I'm not saying T Higgins is not good. I'm saying his role in the sensei being tied there. He'll never be better than from a fantasy perspective. What you got out of Mike Williams. If he went somewhere else and he was the Alpha, I think he could, but I don't see that because Jamar Chase is the TV guy. Jamar Chase has what 25 touchdowns in two years already? Yeah, I don't know.
00:22:57
Speaker
for sure. I mean, I think that his perceived value in the market is higher than his actual value. I just take exception with comparing him to Mike Williams, because Mike Williams. Top 12 wide receiver in Dynasty for a bit. Yeah.
00:23:17
Speaker
I would be curious to know, we don't have to look this up now, but what was his highest ADP ever in a redraft here? There's no way his ADP was ever higher than the fourth or fifth round.
00:23:29
Speaker
And T. Hagens is the second or third rampant this year. There was a year in season, people were counting on him as like a top five wide receiver. People were going crazy. For a very fleeting moment, yes, I remember. Yes, it happens. I'm telling you, my place was a hot day. It was the beginning of not last season, but the season before.
00:23:48
Speaker
Because I remember thinking like, Oh, I guess Michael Williams is the thing. But people wanted him to be that. And so that's why they jumped on once they started seeing it. It's like, finally, he's doing what we thought he'd do. And I think people have the same concept for T Higgins, like, and I don't ever think he's going to get there is what I'm saying. So just to jump in here, this is random, but I'm in a different league with David Redraft League.
00:24:11
Speaker
Mike Williams went in the third round last year. Boom. All right. That's a ten teamer, too. Ten teamers. Yeah, that is a ten team lead, too, yeah. All right, Joe, give us your... Well, you gave us your buy, so give us your suspenseful sell. Yeah, so my sell... Hold on, let me... Let me just wet the whistle with some IPA before...
00:24:40
Speaker
So myself, I mean, this might be a little bit of a hot take. It might not be that much of a hot take because actually looking closer, he wasn't drafted until the 1-2-3-4-5-0-1 in our Dynasty startup. But for me, it's Derek Henry. I just think that... Yeah, big time show. I'm gonna use the drop, man. Sorry. I gotta pause for the drop. So I'll frame up my thoughts. First
Derrick Henry's Workload Concerns
00:25:06
Speaker
of all, from a Dynasty perspective, I just think that you're not really getting
00:25:09
Speaker
The longevity at this point from a position that's historically Fleeting in terms of productivity, right? So Derek Henry if you look at his attempts from so obviously like the first couple years there was some delusion amongst the coaching staff in terms of Who's still gonna be who's gonna be getting the carries over there? But if you look if you go from 2018 215 attempts
00:25:38
Speaker
216 303 attempts 378 attempts 219 attempts and that's only in eight games, right? So like his 16 game pace of attempts in 2021 was like Almost 450 attempts and then last year 350 attempts I understand he has a body that is built for this type of punishment, but I just don't think that any any
00:26:07
Speaker
If you look at, I pulled up the career rushing attempts and on the career list of, there's only maybe 20 or 30 backs in the history of the league who have ever rushed more than 2000 times total. And I just think that at a certain point, Derek Henry is going to be at the cliff. Right now he's at 1750 attempts for his career.
00:26:37
Speaker
So maybe maybe if his body holds up this year and you get another two or three hundred attempt season From a dynasty perspective there are a couple guys that went after Henry who I would much rather have from a longevity standpoint Javante Williams good example, obviously coming back from an injury, which is why he went after Henry, but still Javante Williams is interesting to me Aaron Jones
00:27:07
Speaker
James Cook, David Montgomery. These are guys who I think that you can get another two, three years out of. And I just don't necessarily feel that if you're playing the probability and statistics, not to mention, if you look at the team's actions, they drafted TyJ Spears, who mentioned him on a previous pod. And he's already kind of getting
00:27:36
Speaker
a little bit of hype in the preseason. He's had some, some very impressive runs. Some of his, you know, like the preseason runs that you see those viral clips that are going around on the Twitter or the X sphere. Taijai probably had the most impressive one yet. I mean, like literally you should see this cut. If you guys haven't seen it, check it out. He leaped over defender as well. Just insane. He's a great back. And I just wouldn't be totally surprised.
00:28:06
Speaker
to see Derek Henry start to lose his step. And to see more in the near term, the young explosive spears getting involved. So for me personally, especially in redraft, where Derek Henry is getting drafted in the second round, that is not a position where I personally would be looking to invest in somebody who has that much mileage on me, on the register.
00:28:33
Speaker
Yeah. Don't agree. I don't disagree there. Uh, Tyler Spears was really making ACLs look overrated. Um, but the one thing I thought was funny, you said, uh, his body taking punishment. I don't know if he's the one taking the punishment when he's getting tackled. I feel like I don't know at what point it will ever not hurt to tackle Derek Henry, but I do like, it's just, he has to be a major running. His style of running to me is.
00:29:03
Speaker
He needs to get up to speed. And once he gets up to speed, he's impossible, well not impossible to bring down, but you have to be willing to kind of sacrifice your body to bring him down. I just feel like- The defense has to be tired too. He's a much better second half player. The length of time that it takes him to get up to that full speed is going to naturally extend. Increase, yeah. Right. Right. So that's kind of where, you know, like when he first joined the league,
00:29:33
Speaker
I had my skepticism that he would ever be anything. And he's obviously proven me wrong. You know, ninefold over the last four or five seasons. Just a little bit. But this is the kind of point in time where I'm like, all right, you know, that that type of running has to catch up with you eventually. And Joe's like, I'm going to be right now. I think that it's happening this year. And that's where I'm putting my money now.
00:30:02
Speaker
There's also just a huge change with running backs in the league right now. I mean, they're barely making it a couple of years and teams are moving on. So, uh, eventually he's going to get moved on from, and like you said, I mean, he's on his last contract. Yeah. Maybe he'll get it. She won't, but yeah, he's, he's, he's, his, uh, days of being a feature back are numbered, but who knows maybe another season or not, but it's definitely, you know, the cliff is coming. Yeah. But, um,
00:30:30
Speaker
Right on. Do you
Low-risk Buys and Emerging Talent
00:30:31
Speaker
want to toss us with your next player? Yeah, so I picked a guy who I think his stock can't possibly go lower. He had... His could go lower. No, my guy had exactly one catch the entire 2022 season. He's out the first six games of this year.
00:30:56
Speaker
He already pulled a hamstring and missed the rest of preseason this year. Everything that could go wrong has, so my by now is Jamison Williams. Where's my sound clip, Dave? You're right. Hold on. Bye, bye, bye! There we go. Bye, bye, bye. Sorry, I almost took Celsius off because I have an opposite view. I know what you do. I was like, yeah, from what?
00:31:24
Speaker
So obviously, Sean and I just bought him. But like I said, I don't think his stock can possibly go lower. If he comes back week seven and he even just catches a few passes, his ADP has to go up. People have already moved on from him. He had great draft capital. He's considered extremely talented. Obviously, a disaster start to his career.
00:31:54
Speaker
anything can happen. So I feel like he's someone you can buy for super, super cheap right now. And, you know, if it works out, you could potentially have a really good wide receiver for the next couple of years. He's super, super young. I think he's, well, isn't he like literally 22 years old or something? Um, so that's my buy now. Um, obviously a Homer pick. I'm hoping it works out for us. I think you can even get him for less than what we paid to be honest. So.
00:32:22
Speaker
He's someone I would recommend if you need a wide receiver you could take a chance on Yeah, so I do disagree I do think his value can go down because I Have a hard time believing he's gonna be able to stay on the field or be a beast be able to stay focused and he's not a volume receiver so I
00:32:50
Speaker
And he also doesn't have the greatest hand. So if he's not making these long catches, then he's just not gonna provide value. And he does have in dynasty a lot. He does carry a decent amount of redraft, definitely not. But I do think in dynasty he holds a lot of value. Personally, I would be trying to sell him while the hype is still somewhat there. That's where I would say the hype is already kind of gone though. And a lot of what you're saying is already built in. He's number 91 on keep trade cut right now.
00:33:20
Speaker
And like I said, he is 22.3 years old. So he's young so I don't know I feel like if he comes back week seven and he just even has a decent couple games His ADP will really shoot up All right Yeah, so, you know, I'm in so I've been in on Jameson Williamson the beginning I I love his athleticism. I love his speed his college
00:33:51
Speaker
production profile kind of speaks for itself. The times that he was on the field last year, he showed immediate flashes. So I just think that if it was, and it's not like, it's not like him being out was, you know, it doesn't strike, he doesn't strike me as a guy who, whose, whose body's betraying him or his, or his quite
00:34:16
Speaker
identifying as injury prone just yet. He's losing games this year just for, you know, going around. I mean, does he have a hammy issue already? Oh, yeah, but he's got sick. It's minor. I'm just saying these injuries sort of pop up. I would be looking to buy. I'm with you, right? I think I think that I've seen from what I saw from him in college and from what he immediately showed the times he was on the field last year. I'm still pretty excited about the prospects.
00:34:48
Speaker
That's why it is a nice sell because you can get a lot of value from it. Well, that will take me to my last player. So personally, I love buying cheap running backs in Dynasty. I think there's a lot of value there. Wide receivers, they have a longer lifespan.
00:35:09
Speaker
regular footballs NFL is catching up to this but if you can get a running back for cheap and they There's a lot of times he's running backs back and run backs Kind of exploding to value later in their careers when they get an opportunity. That's when your team can really take the next level So there's usually perceived lower values on these backup running backs But the one backup who I think has a lot of potential and could really skyrocket soon is Joan Warren
00:35:39
Speaker
So he has been starting to get some hype this preseason. So like his price has gone, definitely has gone up than it was maybe a month or so ago, but I still think he's a value. And so when you can still acquire relatively cheap and he can have massive returns.
00:35:55
Speaker
Last year, on 77 attempts, he averaged about 4.9 yards per carry. Obviously, small sample size, but 5 yards per carry is an elite mark that you hopefully can look for. Granted, small sample size, but he's right at there, and that shows a very explosive electric player. He also, in a part-time role last year, showed that he was a very good receiver. He got 33 targets and caught 28 of them for an average of 7. yards per catch.
00:36:24
Speaker
This is a backup running back who got that in that role. And Najee Harris is also known as a good receiving running back. Still a seeded 28 catches to Warren. This preseason, he already showed his electricity. He won't carry the starting game. He had a 60 plus yard touchdown run.
00:36:44
Speaker
And Najee Harris, I still believe 100% he's lead back and he's got to get his work, but they are definitely going to start lightening his load. And the Steelers, even last year we're mentioning, they love Warren. And I think even without Najee and her anything, he's going to be a solid flex standalone value. But Najee is also often gets think up. He was an older prospect coming out of college. He's already 25 and a half years old and he has proven to not really be an efficient runner. He's more of a volume player.
00:37:15
Speaker
So it's very like a high likelihood that Najee could get hurt and then Warren would blow up for value. Najee is also going to be in his year 26 season. His 26 year old will go into next season in his fourth year of his rookie contract. They do have a 50 year option on him because he was in a first round and they could maybe exercise that but that would be his then 27 year old.
00:37:39
Speaker
Season going at that point and we've seen at that point that is around the cliff and they're not likely gonna extend beyond that Jail war is currently 24 I could see a very similar path of war that 20 Pollard just got 20 Pollard is now 26 at that time when if they get rid of Najee Harris Warren would be 26 and he has a lot of same traits He's very electric as a lot of yards per carry. He gets good in the receiving game So I could see him
00:38:08
Speaker
blowing up into that high-end, running back one later in his career and a couple years from now. But you can inquire him right now, potentially for a third, and certainly, now that I'm saying this, I know Joey is not gonna sell him for a third, but maybe a second, or maybe you can sell him for a wide receiver on your bench who has a lot of upside. Maybe someone like a Skymore or something for, or even someone less, like a Nicole Collins for award. I think that'd be a very worthwhile move to be making. So that is my, bye bye bye!
00:38:38
Speaker
Bye, bye, bye. So those were our buys and sells. Other bonus ones, just to give you a tidbit. I do actually think Michael Pittman is a good buy, because his value seems to be very low. He does have a lot of talent. I don't think he's going to have a great year this year, so I don't think you have to rush to get him. I think he's going to be maybe a wider series three this year, but I think his value will improve. Someone else said, look, my sell won't get into it a ton. He's already hurt, though.
00:39:08
Speaker
So for Jerry Judy, everyone loves him. A lot of hype there. I think he's a little overrated. He's not, I don't think he's good of route runners, people think, but just as a bonus for the listeners out there. I don't know if you guys have any bonus ones you want to throw out there. I know Joe, you threw out one earlier. Yeah, I would say it's hard for Michael Pittman to produce if his quarterback can't make accurate throws. So we'll see what Anthony Richardson's arm looks like once we get out onto the field
00:39:38
Speaker
I mean, I'm not expecting much this year. That's why I think he's a great guy. But I think Anthony Richardson will develop personally. So that's why I think you can get him this year knowing that future years he will be better. With that, we have a new segment that came from our very own Ryan Wilkinson. We're very, very much excited about that. And I'm going to toss it over to him to let him run with this one.
00:40:08
Speaker
Yeah, so we're gonna do something a little different here. We're gonna finish this episode with what we are calling a dud draft. I'm pretty excited for this. I think it's gonna be pretty fun and a whole new way to look at things and signal out some guys we're low on. I'm gonna explain the rules, but the overall objective is to draft a team that scores the least amount of points as possible from weeks one to 14 of the regular season. So pretty much the complete opposite of a normal redraft.
00:40:37
Speaker
That means things like suspensions are a plus, spy weeks are great, injuries are technically a good thing, although I would never wish an injury on anyone. You're looking for players that won't put up a lot of points. For our dud draft, we're going to use the exact same rules as our dynasty league. You all know the rules by now. If you don't, Dave did a great job explaining them in episode one. So go give it a listen. It's on our Spotify page.
00:41:04
Speaker
So the rule is the catch is that you can't just pick 10 random guys that won't ever see the field. You have to select one guy that was picked in each of the first 10 rounds of our league's startup draft. So we're going to look at the 12 guys that were selected in round one. We each need to pick one of those guys to be on our dud team. Then we'll look at round two. The players that were selected in round two will pick one of those guys. And we'll move from round three all the way to round 10.
00:41:32
Speaker
We're stopping at round 10 because we're not going to draft a bench. We're only going to draft a starting lineup. So think best ball, but this is worst ball. And your roster at the end does have to be a complete starting lineup. So you have to have one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end. You have three flex spots and one super flex spot.
00:41:56
Speaker
There'll be no replacements, no changes to your lineup once the draft is over, and we'll use the sleeper score just like we're going to use in our actual league. So everyone can pick the same player. I want all of us, including you listeners, to make the worst team you possibly can. So don't have to worry about what someone else picks.
00:42:18
Speaker
And we will be tracking it throughout the season. So have fun with us, put together a dud team, send it our way, and we'll track the progress on a spreadsheet so everyone can see. Also, yeah, Joe, I was also going to say, feel free to pick which of our teams you want to kind of hit your ride onto as well. Because we'll make a friendly wager here, right? There's going to be some stakes involved. We haven't exactly determined what the stakes are going to be.
00:42:44
Speaker
I feel pretty confident about my selection. So whatever you guys want to go with, let's make it interesting and we'll see if we can get the league to, if everybody kind of like has to, like you said, hitch to one of our three wagons and, uh, you know, put some money up. Then the winning, the winning side will take all the spoils. Yeah, I think it's a great idea. I think we should.
00:43:11
Speaker
decide it now before we announce the teams and get to round one. So what are you guys thinking? 50, 100? I was saying, is it going to be cash or should it be the gallon of milk? No, let's do cash.
00:43:33
Speaker
We can do milk if you want. It's just hard to pay out the milk to multiple people, you know? Yeah, I agree. We can throw some cash on. All right, we'll throw some cash on. That would be fine. I do hope my dudruff scoring is better than my golf scores, because if not, I'm going to score real high.
00:43:52
Speaker
I think 50 is a reasonable number. Yeah, we can do that. In mid-season, if we want to throw something else on top of it to make it more fun too, something that we can video and put out on the socials. If anybody wants to get involved, then however many people join up on the opposing sides is how much more profit the winning side will get. All right, I'm into it. Love it. All right.
00:44:20
Speaker
Well, now that that's in place, let's look at round one. So again, one guy from each round, got to draft a full starting lineup. Well, we want to give us the first initial launch of the dud draft, Ryan. Welcome to? Welcome to the NSFW dud draft. All right. I've got to use the drop, guys.
00:44:49
Speaker
All right, so first I'll go through the guys that were drafted in round one, and then we'll each talk about who we picked. So round one, we'll go through pretty quick here, I think, but we had Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hertz, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, AJ Brown, and Kyler Murray. So I'll start round one.
00:45:16
Speaker
You know, news came out today that Kyler Murray may not even play this season. So I think it's an easy pick for a dud draft team. I'm going to slide Kyler Murray into my QB spot. Dave, what are you thinking? Ditto. Yeah. And Joe, he was your pick. So how are you feeling about this? Yeah, no, we're absolutely going, Kyler.
00:45:39
Speaker
Well, if there's money in line, Joey doesn't care. Look, if we're talking about the next three years, four years, even next year's season, I'll water or milk back Kyler Murray against any quarterback, especially any third string Dallas Cowboys quarterback that you guys want in terms of fantasy points or touchdowns thrown. But for this year, Kyler is not who you want to be. Would you have drafted Kyler in the first round if he knew this? Yep, 100%.
00:46:11
Speaker
Interesting. I have my concerns. No, I mean, I think it's on record, right? Like, I had my concerns that he might not play this season at all. That was kind of why I made a move to draft. I actually traded up to get Matthew Stafford because I was kind of like, you know what? I better make sure that I am sure Tyler Murray, just in case he doesn't play this year. The Caleb Williams hype around Arizona was drumming up quite early on.
00:46:40
Speaker
Quite frankly, I just like, I mean, I could talk all day about Kyler Murray. I don't think he's great, but I also think that Cliff Kingsbury is just one of the most under qualified and unjustified head coaches and offensive minds in the history of the National Football League. There's been a lot of bad coaches, I don't know. And the fact that he's the one who Kyler had his, you know, offensive schematics kind of produced by for the first couple of years of his career.
00:47:09
Speaker
and still managed to have a season with like 26 or 27 passing touchdowns and 11 or 12 rushing touchdowns. I think that he could, I mean like the spectrum with Kyler is he could end up in probably not a worse situation that he was in for the last couple of years and was still great or if he ends up getting traded into like a team like Washington or
00:47:35
Speaker
Minnesota or a lot of these teams that are like just, you know, going to be in the need for a QB. So I think the future is bright for Tyler is kind of all that I'm going to say, but we'll see. So you're in on him in the future, but this year weeks, one hundred percent of the season, we're all, we're all in agreement there. It looks like Arizona has got all the markings of a team that is coming in hot with the tank. Yeah.
00:48:00
Speaker
All right, so we're aligned in round one. Round one, Kyler Murray. So round two, I'll read off the guys we got. Tyreek Hill, Iman St. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Stefan Diggs, Breece Hall, Deck Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelsey, Jalen Waddle, Deshaun Watson, C.D. Lamb, and Garrett Wilson. So Dave, why don't we throw it to you first here?
00:48:25
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, this might be a popular pick too. Obviously a lot of news going out about this guy, Jonathan Taylor. Um, not sure how much he's going to play. I also don't know how healthy he is either. So, uh, and so like combine his dispute with the team, maybe he gets traded and maybe he's not healthy. There's a lot of good names on this list, but he's the one that has the most question marks. I'm going to go with him. Joe.
00:48:49
Speaker
Yeah, so I think I had him as a bus pick a couple weeks ago. I'm going to go with Breeze Hall and not because I'm not in on the talent, but I just think that coming back from the injury now with Dalvin Cook in that backfield, I'm just not 100% sure that comparative to, I mean, you know, injuries aside, right? Like, I, assuming all 12 of these guys stay healthy,
00:49:19
Speaker
You know, we'll see what happens with Jonathan Taylor. I'm not totally convinced that he gets traded and maybe he makes his way out there and he's on the field by week two or week three. And then I think you've got a couple of weeks of him putting up potentially, you know, like full workload numbers, comparative to Breeze who's going to be coming back from an injury, potentially yielding goal line and receiving back work to Dalvin. So I'm going to go with Breeze Hall for money.
00:49:46
Speaker
And I'm actually on Joe's side. So I went with Breece Hall, obviously with signing Devin Cook. I think I'm gonna take it slow with him. And on top of that, even if he's at full strength with Joe, I think Cook does impact his workload a little bit. So, you know, Jonathan Taylor, I get it.
00:50:02
Speaker
I still think he ends up having a decent season, but we'll see. So there's our first difference and, uh, we'll see how it turns out. I will say Breeze Hall was my backup pick. I thought you guys, because even if he somehow stays with the Colts with Anthony Richardson, I think it takes away carries, but yeah, I don't disagree. I don't think he's going to have a good season, but yeah. All right. So we'll move to round three. We got T Higgins, Saquon Barkley.
00:50:29
Speaker
Olave, Walker, Kup, Kyle Pitts, Tua, Devontae Smith, Etienne, Mark Andrews, Adams, and Metcalf. Joe, why don't we start with you this time? Yeah, so tough one here for me. A gut reaction is to want to go with Tua, but obviously we can only choose two quarterbacks given the roster limitations. I know you got one. I'll get it.
00:50:59
Speaker
Trey Lance in round six, so I obviously can't go too weak here despite my concerns about his ability to stay on the field. I am actually in round three. I was in a very, just full disclosure, right? Just so you can see, you know, for me, it very much came down to Kyle Pitts versus Travis Etienne.
00:51:19
Speaker
I think I'm going to go, I think I'm actually going to go out. I think I'm going to, I think I'm going to stick with Kyle Pitts. I think that as much as I really, I want to go with Travis Etienne, I have concerns about his durability. He's a small guy. A lot of his productivity last year was on big plays. They drafted tank Bigsby, who I think is going to have an increasing role and teams like based on the hype is going to have an increasing role as the season goes on. He'll probably get.
00:51:49
Speaker
inside the 20 and 10 yard line work. And Travis Etienne, confusingly, is still not as active in the passing game as he was in college. He's scared of catching passes. Yeah, apparently. He's on record of saying that. I wouldn't want to get him either. He's very, very small. I'm going to go with Kyle Pitts only because
00:52:15
Speaker
Again, I've had similar concerns about Drake London and we might actually be having a similar conversation in the next round where I'm just not 100% sure that Arizona, that Atlanta is going to throw the ball enough and have enough talent at the quarterback position to produce meaningful points. So Kyle Pitts is my choice, round three.
00:52:37
Speaker
Yeah, and I'll just step in because I also went Kyle Pitts. So I mentioned it on some of our other podcasts that I'm much lower on him than the consensus. So I'm sticking to it. And I agree with everything Joe said there. Yeah. And honestly, like I debated Kyle Pitts. I was like very torn. Kyle Pitts was what I was thinking about. The reason why I shifted away from Kyle Pitts is he has shown to have a thousand yard season in him. Obviously no like one touchdown that year.
00:53:07
Speaker
But in our format with Tynan Premium, even if he gets, what, like 60 receptions, that's going to be counting as 120 receptions versus another wide receiver in there. So I figured there was more risk in going with pits in case he does have even an improvement over the last year or something closer to his rookie year. So I pivoted away from him. Player I went with, similar mentality as Joe broke down with the ETN, but Ken Walker.
00:53:37
Speaker
is who's going to be my pick for this. Mainly because of Zach Charbonnet. They also drafted another rookie and I think Zach Charbonnet is going to be more of the receiving back, more of the goal line back. Ken Walker dominated last year, 100%. He was great. But that was when he was the only show in town. He was getting, I forgot the numbers, but I think it was like 70, 80% of the like the snaps and rushes at that point. I don't think he's going to be getting that. I don't think he's going to get all the high end value
00:54:07
Speaker
Touches going forward. So I think he's gonna be more like back and running back to maybe so I'm gonna go with him Also, I feel like he has some injury potential to just but the way he wrote so Yeah, go go with okay Walker All right. Yeah makes sense All right moving on to round four. We have JK Dobbins DJ Moore Najee Harris Deebo Samuel
00:54:34
Speaker
TJ Hockison, Tony Pollard, Remondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Daniel Jones, Josh Jacobs, Austin Eckler, and Drake London. So I'll start this one. I actually thought this round was pretty tough. I feel like there's pretty solid picks here. No one really, really stood out to me, but I decided to go with JK Dobbins.
00:54:59
Speaker
Uh, I think he's injury prone. He's already had two knee surgeries. I think he split some time with Edwards. Didn't receive a lot of receiving usage when he did play last year. So I don't think he has that good of an overall pick. And that was my pick for, uh, around four. I see, I see some faces here. So Dave, let's, let's hear it. Well, for one.
00:55:23
Speaker
I love Jake Dobbins. I know I drafted him, but I have him in every league. I'm just like, I love Jake Dobbins. But obviously, I didn't pick him. My pick is going to be Drake London. And Joe already alluded to it, a lot of the same reasons. Fully aware that the Atlanta passing offense is not the most prolific or volumous, if that's a word. I think it is. So Drake London.
00:55:51
Speaker
at best I think this year is like a wide receiver three. Honestly, Kyle Pitts or Drake London, one of them I think will be good. I don't think both will be. But my bet is gonna be saying that Drake London, who'll probably have tougher defensive assignments, will be the one that actually suffers the most, while Kyle Pitts will probably have maybe like a slot corner or maybe a middle linebacker on him. So I think he'll get open more often. So I'm going with Drake London.
00:56:22
Speaker
Yeah, I'm fearful of a scenario where they're both like super, super touchdown dependent, mediocre, three to six receptions for 40 to 70 yards every week. And if they score, then they're going to get you 10 to 16 fantasy points. And if they don't, then you're going to be stuck in the seven, eight range. So I'm not crazy about either. Drake London is my pick in this round as well.
00:56:50
Speaker
I just think, probability-wise, if you take out injuries, I think that an offense that's being quarterbacked by Desmond Ritter, who just drafted B. John Robinson is probably going to give him 50% of the touches on the offensive end. It's hard to pass that up. I don't hate the Dobbins pick. I have Dobbins in another two leagues.
00:57:18
Speaker
Um, the vibes haven't been all that great. Not only has he been coming back from injury, but he's also trying to get a contract. I think the same situation for Josh Jacobs. That was another one that I looked at a little bit here just because, you know, maybe just take a shot. And that's a risky shot. And Jacob decides to not report, which he already said he will though. So, I mean, but yeah, but you know,
00:57:44
Speaker
Where is he? But yeah, it's hard to pass up the value of Drake London there. So I'm with Dave. I'm going to go Drake London. Yeah. Makes sense. All right.
00:58:02
Speaker
Moving on to round five, we have Derek Henry, Michael Pittman, De'Andre Swift, Pierce, Kittle, Sanders, Kirk Cousins, Joe Mixon, Christian Watson, Gino Smith, Jevonta Williams, and Brandon Ayuk. Why don't we start with Joe this round? Who are you thinking? Yeah, I mean, a couple of weeks ago, I might have
00:58:29
Speaker
being a little bit more tempted to go with the likes of Gervonta Williams here. But now, obviously, that will not be the direction that I'm going. Boom shot a lot. He's like honorable mention.
00:58:45
Speaker
So I'm going with Michael Pittman. It was close for me between Michael Pittman and DeAndre Swift. I think those are the two that stick out and maybe I won't even make my potential case for Swift because it wouldn't surprise me if one of my two compadres here was selecting Swift. For Pittman with me I just think that
00:59:06
Speaker
You know, again, I'm not crazy about Anthony Richardson's accuracy in college as somebody who's wagered on him a trillion times and had to watch him frustratingly air metal guys downfield by 15 yards. I don't know that that gets fixed overnight. I think the athleticism is there. There's going to be some broken pain. I'm just not sure that, you know, Michael Pittman is going to be as reliable this year. I mean, if you couldn't get it done last year with more accurate quarterbacks, and I know
00:59:36
Speaker
I'm actually going to go ahead and say that Matt Ryan is a more accurate quarterback than Anthony Richardson. Honestly, the worst thing that could possibly happen would be if Richardson gets hurt and Gardner Minshew comes in there because Minshew can actually hit Pittman down the field and maybe that'll actually sway things in the wrong direction for me here. But I'm going to go with Michael Pittman. I'll jump in. I took Pittman too. I alluded to that.
01:00:05
Speaker
I love Anthony Richardson and I have him on my team. I don't think Pittman is going to be great this year because Anthony Richardson's value is not tied directly to his accuracy. I think he will develop and again I mentioned the buy for next year and beyond but this year I think it will be rough. For the Swift, just to speak to that, I agree and that was something that I looked at.
01:00:34
Speaker
The risk with Swift is that he can have below a place here and there. He could touch the bowl five times a game, which I could easily see happen. But one of those maybe takes to the house. I don't see Pittman taking many massive plays to the house. Just the style of this play. He's not kind of like that. He's kind of more of a possession guy. It'd be more like an Alex Pierce on the Colts would be more of a deep ball threat. So I feel like Pittman is safer as long as Anthony Richardson is the quarterback the whole season.
01:01:03
Speaker
I agree. Minchu will feed the rock to him. So that's the downside on that day. But yeah, and I don't need to expand much because I also went with Pittman and Swift was the other one I was thinking of, but I needed to fill my wide receiver slot when I was looking at all of the rounds. So I went with Pittman as well. So we can move right on to round six. Yeah, this is funny.
01:01:30
Speaker
It seems like over the last couple weeks that Rashad penny is the one that's falling a little bit more out of favor That was kind of the reason why I was like a little bit gun tried to take Swift. I mean, there's definitely been Kenneth gain well hype I mean, I still think DeAndre Swift is is really good. I mean, he's had injury troubles, but if he's on the field He'll play his way onto the field like between Kenneth gain well Rashad penny and DeAndre Swift. There's no fucking way that
01:01:56
Speaker
De'Andre Swift is going to be the one who gets caught of those three. I refuse to. Yeah, I don't think Swift's getting caught, but I just don't. He's not scoring within 20 yards of the end zone. No, no. That's what I'm like, but that's risky. He's going to score from 40 yards out, so I think he's good. Yeah, which he did last year, so easy. They've got Boston Scott there as well, so it's impossible to figure out their backfield ever, but I do think Swift will produce. Yeah.
01:02:25
Speaker
So looking at round six, we have McLaurin, Godwin, Ridley, Pickens, Judy, Burks, Pacheco, Williams, Freyrmuth, Dotson, Lance, and Goder. Dave, you want to go first? Yes, it's on. I already know what you're doing. I already know where you're going, so let's hear it. So I'm going with Jameson Williams. I mean, you already know he's going to put up zeros for multiple leaks in a row.
01:02:55
Speaker
the only player in this round that's 100% guaranteed to score zeros for six straight weeks.
01:03:02
Speaker
I wanted to just throw that out. There's no other playing ground as a guarantee for six weeks. I want Williams as well. You got to look at the suspension. Even if he goes berserk and has 30 points a game, once he's back, it's still only average out to 15 a game. So I also don't think he's going to go berserk when he comes back. He's going berserk, Dave. He's going berserk. We'll see. But now I picked him as well.
01:03:29
Speaker
Joe, just whatever, get it? Hit this with it, Joe. I mean, I feel like I'm taking the fucking free square here. Trey Lance is the only quarterback drafted in the first 10 rounds of this startup that is not an actual starter, that is not guaranteed to be on the field. If that press out happens to stay healthy for 16 games, which you know what? Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but... Maybe he won't, yeah. ...he can't really bank on injury. You know, assuming that, assuming full health, I will take my Trey Lance.
01:03:59
Speaker
And hopefully, Joe, a question for you. Walking a solid zero. So this goes to what, 14 weeks. So we're saying you get eight weeks of James and Williams, right? That's what we're saying. Eight weeks of James and Williams. Eight weeks of play, yeah. Eight weeks of James and Williams or four weeks of trail ends.
01:04:24
Speaker
Any four or? In that time, who do you think scores more points? Eight weeks of James and Williams or four weeks of Trey Lance? Easily eight weeks of James and Williams. I would honestly go down as far as three, maybe two, I think Trey Lance scores more points than eight weeks of James and Williams. Guys, I feel like I'm smelling a side bet here.
01:04:44
Speaker
Well, I mean, I don't know. Trey Lance has to actually play. But I'm just saying that does get injured. And I do think that misses even two weeks. I think Trey Lance can score more points in eight weeks than James Williams can. My my opinion is that there's a lot of shit that goes on in the NFL and evaluating talent that I don't understand that goes beyond my comprehension levels and for
01:05:14
Speaker
Kyle Shanahan, who I think is a decent evaluator of talent to be done with Trey Lance, and to be choosing Sam Donald, who fucking stinks as his backup quarterback over Trey Lance. Trey Lance must be terrible. So even though he had that- So my counter to that, Shanahan throws, does not care about draft value, and will throw people in the dark. He did it to Ayuk.
01:05:37
Speaker
for a year. You guys now good, but he didn't tell you he's done it. How many third round running backs have they drafted and they just don't care about it and they cast the side like they don't care about it. It's like, this would never happen on another team other than San Francisco. This only would happen in San Francisco. They do not care about draft value in San Francisco.
01:05:59
Speaker
They drafted a kicker because they're like, we're good. We don't need to draft anyone else on this team. We're solid. We're going to blow what, a fourth round pick on a kicker.
01:06:10
Speaker
San Francisco does not care about draft value. I think getting Trey Lance out of San Francisco is the best thing for his career. He's going to get another chance. I promise you he's going to play games. I don't know if it's going to be this year. I'm hoping that, oh, I'm not saying hope that gets her, but if he gets her, I'm hoping he is the back of, fortunately, if that gets her. Who knows? But I feel like Jerry Jones is going to be like, Cooper Rush is not a sexy name. We want Trey Lance. That sells tickets. And he's going to push for Trey Lance to play that.
01:06:36
Speaker
Um, but that's what I'm saying. San Francisco is just not good. And like, he put people in the doghouse. And like, I also think they killed his confidence. Ayuk was struggling then too. Fortunately, Ayuk got out of it. But like, that was a first round wide receiver too. Everyone loved him. And he dominated his rookie year and he still threw him in the doghouse. Yeah. It's a tough situation he's in. And honestly, I would love to see
01:07:04
Speaker
a game or two games or three games of Trey Lance playing not in a monsoon. And, you know, he hasn't had that opportunity. But you know, he's had that opportunity in fucking practice for like three years in front of Kyle Shanahan. And Kyle was like, you can't trust Kyle Shanahan with this. You can't trust him. He throws people randomly in the doghouse. Does it make sense? I think that
01:07:31
Speaker
I think that he had enough time to evaluate the talent, and if he was willing to promote Sam Darnold to QB2 over him, then that's enough for me to think that he stinks. I think he just got Purdy. And don't get me wrong, Purdy...
01:07:46
Speaker
Did great. But I think Purdy is the better type of player for our system. The running quarterbacks are not good for us. Jimmy Garoppolo was great for that system. You want more of the guys who can do the West Coast short passing offense. That's not what Trey Lance is. He's got a big arm and he's a rushing quarterback. He's not meant for Shanahan's offense. So I think this was a way we figured we made a mistake. We did. 100% made a mistake.
01:08:13
Speaker
Fortunately, we also got extremely lucky with Purdy. Let's just like make the move. Yeah.
01:08:21
Speaker
Yeah. Well, that's going to be interesting to see how that turns out. But we have some differences in round six. Let's move to round seven. So round seven, we have Rashad White, Aaron Rodgers, Cooper, Kirk, Akers, Wilson, Brock Purdy, James Cook, Aaron Jones, Marquis Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Delvin Cook. And why don't we turn it over to Dave?
01:08:49
Speaker
I would like to pass and see what other people do first. Interesting. Why don't we try to jump? I'll jump in. So this was a tough one. It was a tough one. I agree. I want to see what you guys do. And I want to make sure I don't double up with you guys. Oh, what? No changing. I just want barriers. I don't want to pick the same player you guys picked. Well, I mean, you know.
01:09:13
Speaker
So me, I went with Cam Acres. So I'm not a Cam Acres guy. I just, I personally will side on the years and years and years of history of people coming back from Achilles injuries and not producing. And also years and years and years of running backs on bad offenses being tough for fantasy. And I'm not necessarily sure that the Rams are gonna be a bad offense, you know, in a vacuum.
01:09:43
Speaker
they are definitely going to be a bad defense and they're going to lose a lot of games and they might even intentionally lose a lot of games. So I'm just not sure that Cam Akers on one Achilles tendon, you know, on the back of, I mean, a great stretch that he put together towards the end of last season. I think it's a little bit smoke and mirrors and I'm not betting on him to replicate that this year. So that's my choice.
01:10:11
Speaker
Yeah, and I have to say I thought this was probably the hardest round overall. I don't know, I felt like most of the running backs and wide receivers were on a similar playing field here. Cam Akers was on my radar, but I didn't go with him. Might even sound crazy because I went with Breece Hall in round two, but I actually went with Dalvin Cook. I don't know, I just, you know, I'm concerned that I took both running backs because you would assume one of them has to produce a little bit, but
01:10:41
Speaker
I'm not feeling either with that round capital, so I went Dalvin Cook and I, you know, I'm going with that. Dave? I'm happy, I wait, because Dalvin Cook was my pick initially, but I also knew that this was a round, to your point Ryan, there were a lot of options here, and that's why I personally waited, because I was like, I feel like I might have a duplicate here. So it creates some additional variance,
01:11:09
Speaker
Um, I'm going to build the areas to make the points back that you're losing with Trey Lance in round six. You know what? That was a perfect sailboat because I just nailed the perfect dud stack in Hollywood brown. If Kyler is not touching the ball this year, Hollywood is going to stink. Uh, you got a clean tune.
01:11:33
Speaker
Uh, you got Colt McCoy. They just got Joshua Dobbs, who was a converted wide receiver to quarterback. I believe like, give me Hollywood. I will gladly take him knowing that he's going to get worse passes than Anthony and Richardson will be tossing. So it's an interesting pick because he is the wide receiver one there. I completely get the logic if there's a lot.
01:11:57
Speaker
who's gonna throw to him. He does get injured a lot, was injured last year. Was not thinking you were gonna pick him, so interesting. Well, I had Dalvin, that's why I was like, if anyone picks Dalvin, which I think someone might, I'm gonna go Hollywood. Yeah, all right. Yeah, Dalvin, you know, he's interesting to me because I kind of feel like they're gonna be a good offense. And when you have this guy who like, they just, I could just, I see the writing on the wall where like every time the Jets get inside the five, it's just like the first play is like
01:12:27
Speaker
the halfback dive to Dalvin cook. So he might score like seven or eight touchdowns this season, just, but even when Bruce Hall is healthy, like he might just, that might just be his role. So, yeah, no, I get it. I mean, someone has to, right? So, you know, I have Hall and cook on my team. It might not be a great strategy, but, um, I don't know. I didn't see anyone else in those rounds. Uh, all right.
01:12:52
Speaker
Round eight, we have Mike Williams, we have Camaro, we have Matt, we have Schultz, we have Garoppolo, Carr, Jordan Love, Gough, Pickett, Dylan, Montgomery, and Bateman. Dave, why don't you start this round? Yeah, I mean, this is where you're taking, I feel like a good time to take a tie down, um, Culkamit. I do have him in other dynasty leagues, but like in general, he's not, in my opinion,
01:13:22
Speaker
a high upside tight end option. At best, he's like tight end eight, which is like no better than tight end 18. So, when you get to that level, he's very, it's a low passing offense with Justin Fields. He's touchdown dependent. So, I feel like his ceiling is not very high. So, I want to coke him in.
01:13:41
Speaker
Yeah, I went with him as well. Uh, it's tight on premium league, but I just still feel like there's no one else there that I would pick over. Yeah. And DJ Moore's there now. So, uh, I don't think fields makes that huge, huge Jalen hurts pass jump anyways. Uh, so yeah, I went with him as well. Joe. Yeah. So I went with AJ Dylan. Um, I didn't.
01:14:09
Speaker
Love what I saw from Dylan last year, owned him in a couple leagues. His yards per carry were not great. Aaron Jones is obviously there. They figure to be a team that's going to be likely down-ish more often than not. I mean, I don't know. We'll see. Maybe Jordan Love will be better than we think. But, you know, I'm like weirdly not totally out on Colcomet. I think that, well, I mean, like if you just kind of go with them, if you just kind of follow the money, like they just paid him and
01:14:37
Speaker
I'm not necessarily sure how they're going to use DJ more and maybe DJ more is going to attract more attention and it's like it's interesting that I think if Justin Fields takes the leap from as a passer that we're kind of like everyone's hoping that he does then I think Colcom that's one of the main people that are going to benefit from that just because the downfield type of passes will probably go to DJ more like I don't know like
01:15:06
Speaker
Darnell Mooney is, you know, and Claypool remember. Yeah. Yeah. No, but I just, I don't, I think, I think Colcomet's going to be involved. And I think AJ Dillon, they'll try to involve him, but they're also going to be down a decent amount. And he's, he hasn't surpassed four yards per carry. He didn't surpass four yards per carry. It was a three eight last year or some shit like that. So I'm going as tough to do it to a Boston college guy, but
01:15:34
Speaker
I mean, I, I, I don't disagree. They got the money. I don't think Colcomit will not be involved. I just don't think there's a big pie to be involved with it. Uh, so like literally a good year and I'm just like a good year from Colcomit would be 55 catches, maybe 600 yards and six touchdowns. I was like this ceiling. I don't think, but like that's not that much better again than like the tight end.
01:16:01
Speaker
14 at that point. So when I'm trying to find my 10, I'm trying to find someone whose ceiling cannot be high and if his floor he could score maybe 40 receptions for 400 yards in one touchdown like So that's where I'm thinking for him. I also know Feel pretty confident. I know who Joe's next picture is Again co-management Joe. I have some insight into who he's in and out on I don't
01:16:28
Speaker
He did take a tight end so maybe I don't know but I do have one guy I think he's out on but we'll see I mean I want to be surprised. So Joe, why don't you go first? Well before we get to it, let's go through the guys. So we got Tony, we got Waller, we got Smith Schuster, we got Jones, Robinson, Johnson, Ingram, Joko Davis, Stafford, Chigg, and Dolcek. Joe? Yeah, I mean this is a tough one for me. It actually was
01:16:58
Speaker
This to me, this is this is the. What I would call the tight end glory zone here, because between yeah, I think I'm right who Chica Conquo and Greg Dulcich. I like I honestly don't even know who I dislike more between the three of them headed. And Chica and Chica only gets mentioned because they added D'Andre Hopkins before the D'Andre Hopkins ad. Chica would not have been included in the trailer. Burks is hurt now. Yeah.
01:17:28
Speaker
But I mean, yeah, I'm not. And Phillips. Spoiler alert, we will not be going with Joe. Let's go. I like him the most of those three. But as much as I, I think Caddarius Tony may only play, if he plays six games this year, I think that would be a miracle in the six games that he plays. In the six games that he plays, he'll probably do more than David and Joko, who I am choosing. And it's only because
01:17:57
Speaker
I feel like every season there's hype around David and Joku. And I mean, I appreciate the talent. I appreciate the athletic ability. I appreciate what he's done in the past on like a one off or two off basis. But his overall, I mean, like I don't have the numbers in front of me, but his best season cannot, cannot possibly be more than four or five touchdowns. So, uh,
01:18:24
Speaker
I think there are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland this year. I think that Nick Chubb is being involved in the passing game more often. I'm a big Elijah Moore guy, obviously. Donald and People's Jones is still in the house. I'm just not totally sure that, especially when you factor in the variable of the Sean Watson, that there's a better pick in this round than David and Joker, so that's where I'm going with
01:18:53
Speaker
For the record, I knew it was going to be Njoko. Dave, I have a feeling who you're going with, so why don't you do a bottle-let. I do want to throw out Njoko maybe not getting some touchdowns, but when he does, it's a pretty epic touchdown celebration. That is like the massive jump slam through his legs. It's epic. But yeah, it's Tony.
01:19:13
Speaker
Tony's trash. The guy stinks. He's not a, he's not a real wide receiver. He's a gadget player. He's going to be on the field at most 25, 35% of the time. Like he's not going to be full all the time. Yes. Will they use him in situations where he could score touchdowns? Sure. But that also means that there's going to be tons of games where he puts up next to nothing. Um, so I like Tony is very lucky with the bowl and his hands.
01:19:42
Speaker
but he's not a good route runner. He's not a good wide receiver. He's just, he's just a casual guy. And I think there's very, like every other player in this, in this round or most of the job is on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. I don't think Tony will be that.
01:19:59
Speaker
that the question is what they do when they're on the field though which is why i'm going with dolcic the guy was on the field for 10 games last year and he caught 33 passes so uh i think this is actually the first round where all three of us pick someone different so that's good to see i'm interested because he's actually currently the tight end two on the team as well yeah i mean i just
01:20:25
Speaker
I can't see him even having as good of a year as last year, and that was 33 catches.
Tight End Dilemmas and Draft Picks
01:20:32
Speaker
I also would like to throw out there, there is a bet between me and Dan Acosta that I think Chig will score more than Greg D. I mean, there's a lot of things in play, tight ends, there's a lot of variance, and the margin error is not huge.
01:20:49
Speaker
You're feeling better now than when Hopkins signed after that bet. I was like, God damn it, Hopkins. Yeah. All right. I just want to, I just looked it up, right? So David and Joku, uh,
01:21:07
Speaker
He's played one, two, three, four, six seasons, four touchdowns, four touchdowns, one touchdown, two touchdowns, four touchdowns. I mean, like, you just know what you're gonna get and it's mediocrity, so. But they're great celebrations four times a year. Yeah, no, I mean, it's completely agree there, but it's, yeah. He's like the opposite of a ceiling player. It's just, you're just getting a floor within Joe Kusa. I know that I'm safe in this format with going with Joe.
01:21:35
Speaker
Alright, and moving on to the last round, round 10. We have Foreman, Knox, Moore, Elgeir, Connor, Gibson, Madison, Sutton, Herbert, Evans, Lockett, and Allen. I'll start here. I am a Big Bills fan, but Dawson Knox has to be my pick here, I think at this point.
01:22:02
Speaker
you know, he'll be lucky to just share time and split some work throughout the season. So I don't see a scenario where he has much of a productive fantasy season. He's only tight end that went in this round as well. So, you know, the wide receivers and running backs in this round, I felt like we're still pretty decent, although I do think there's one other that maybe one of my co-hosts will pick, but we'll see. But I went Dawson Knox.
01:22:32
Speaker
Yeah, I'll jump in. I did go Nox, but I'll talk about my decision tree on this. So I was between Nox, Deontay Forman, and Algier. I had a feeling you would say Algier. Yeah, because they're all backups. But if anything happens to the player in front of them, they have massive ceilings. Algier had over 1,000 rush years. So I think there's risk with them.
01:23:01
Speaker
like, what is the worst thing that could happen? Like, at the start of last year, and it still wasn't that great. Like, Don Kincaid gets hurt, like, Nox is feeling good. So, like, yes, I don't remember. Nox has had, I think, two years ago, I think he had, like, a lot of touch. So, like, that is the realm of possibilities.
01:23:19
Speaker
But with Kincaid and all these other players involved, like Josh Allen rushing it in all the time, the ceiling seems very, very limited for Dus and Ots, where the other players, where I do think if everyone is healthy, they're maybe the better call. But if someone gets hurt, it's like Herbert gets hurt or Bijon gets hurt, then you lose his dud draft. So I'm going with Dus and Ots, keeping it safe with a nice low floor as well.
01:23:49
Speaker
Yeah, I'm going to go Taylor Elgier. So I'm not those were the three that I was debating in this round as well. So, I mean, obviously, right. Like I'm so as a Kahlil Herbert owner in Dynasty, I love what I've seen in the preseason. I love the hype clips, but I'm not totally, totally sure what that backfield shakeout is going to look like. And I would not be surprised if it was more of a split.
01:24:18
Speaker
There's no way that Atlanta drafted Bijon Robinson to still give Tyler Algier meaningful work in the rush game. Whereas if you look at the history of how tight ends perform, if Dalton Kincaid were to hit and he were to hit immediately, it would kind of be an anomaly in terms of what we would have seen in the past.
01:24:48
Speaker
Plus, I think they're going to run a lot of two wide receiver sets, and Dawson's going to be on the field. And it just feels like Buffalo, and I know we're talking eye tests again, but Buffalo's the kind of team where when they're scoring four and five touchdowns a game, there's a lot of opportunity for the Khalil Shaqirs of the world and the Dawson Knoxes of the world, and their second string running backs to be catching, receiving touchdowns.
01:25:16
Speaker
I would not be totally surprised to see a season where Knox caught four or five touchdowns. And I definitely don't see Tyler Algier putting up four or five touchdowns in an offense where B. John Robinson is going to be on the field probably for 80 or 90% of snaps. So I'm going to go with Algier. I'll probably look like an idiot if B. John Robinson gets hurt. But I think that was what scared me off of Dawson Knox, although I
01:25:45
Speaker
He was probably, he would have been my second choice. Um, yeah, ultimately what led me to go with Tyler. I will say to Dawson Knox did score a touchdown for the last four games of the regular season for the bills. So he does score touchdowns here and there. It's just, you know, there's another tight end in town now. Um, it's also not as thick as that. Like there's a hard area over here, but it is something clearly in his rubber cloth. So it's there is risk there. So.
Draft Recap and Future Promises
01:26:14
Speaker
That's the dud draft, why don't we recap our teams real quick so everyone knows the full lineups. I'll start, so my quarterback is Kyler Murray, RB1 Breece Hall, RB2 JK Dobbins, wide receiver one Jamison Williams, wide receiver two Michael Pittman, tight end is Kyle Pitts, first flex Delvin Cook, second flex Cole Komet, third flex Greg Dolchich, and super flex Dawson Knox.
01:26:44
Speaker
Dave, why don't you recap? Let's see your team. Yeah. So I got a quarterback, Kyla Murray, which is going to be consistent across the board because he's staying. I got Jonathan Taylor, RB2, Ken Walker, wide receiver one, Drake London, wide receiver two, Michael Pittman, Tyron Cole commit.
01:27:08
Speaker
Flex Jameson Williams flex to Hollywood Brown Flex three Dawson Knox because I wanted to put in flex so I can leave in the super flex on who's not super kid areas Tony Yeah, so for me obviously QB one Kyler Murray and I'm happy that we all have Kyler so that if he happens to get traded or come back and but up
01:27:33
Speaker
3.5 fantasy points per game for the last nine weeks. Sounds like a stretch. RB1, Cam Acres, RB2, Tyler Algier, wide receiver one, Drake London, wide receiver two, Michael Pittman, tight end, David Injoku, flex number one, Kyle Pitts, flex two, Breeze Hall, flex three, AJ Dillon, and then my super flex,
01:28:04
Speaker
the only third string quarterback drafted in the first 10 rounds of our trail, Trey Lance. Love it. I don't know why that was on. That's how bad the situation is. Because his name is Trey, so we had to play Trey times. There you go.
01:28:31
Speaker
So yeah, so quite a bit of variation there. So definitely could work out in anyone's favor. Like we said earlier, $50 a team. If anyone wants to jump on someone's team, feel free to do so. If you want to create your own team, that's cool as well. Let us know. And Dave, why don't you take us home?
01:28:49
Speaker
yeah i mean so i mean that's our show and i know it had been a little bit of a hiatus between shows but that won't be the case for our next show i think i will be trying to get another show out within about the next two week period we're looking at maybe doing some updates to our power rankings maybe a little bold prediction so a lot of things to look forward to but thank you guys for listening we really really appreciate it i hope this was far new for you it was definitely fun for us thank you
01:29:20
Speaker
And join us next time on the NSFW Dynasty Podcast. Take care guys. Thank you for listening to another episode of the NSFW Dynasty Podcast. Tune in next time.