Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
Canada's Diplomatic Dance: Navigating the India Crisis
248 Plays2 years ago
In this week's episode of "And Another Thing," Tony dives deep into the complex world of international diplomacy and defense studies with special guest Adam Chapnick. Adam, an esteemed professor at the Canadian Forces College and the author of "Canada on the United Nations Security Council: A Small Power on a Large Stage," joins Tony for a thought-provoking conversation.
Tune in as Tony and Adam dissect the Canada-India diplomatic crisis and explore its multifaceted aspects. They delve into how this crisis resonates within diaspora politics and its impact on Canada's standing among its global allies. The duo also addresses the pressing question of whether Canada is effectively meeting its NATO commitments.
If you're intrigued by the intricacies of international relations and want to gain valuable insights into the evolving role of Canada on the world stage, this episode is a must-listen. Join Tony and Adam as they navigate the twists and turns of diplomacy, geopolitics, and global alliances in this engaging and informative discussion.
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction and Sponsor Acknowledgments
00:00:00
Speaker
And another thing And another thing And another thing
00:00:17
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of And Another Thing podcast. As Jody would say, this podcast sets the bar. He will not be joining us today, but I'm very glad to be one half of the dynamic duo and we've got a great guest today, so it'll all work out well. We should start by thanking our sponsors, starting with John Mutton and Municipal Solutions, Ontario's leading MZO firm. Great for development approvals, permit expediting,
00:00:47
Speaker
planning services with municipalities, engineering and architectural services, minor variances and land severances, and building permits. For all of your municipal solutions needs, go to municipalsolutions.ca and John and the team will help you out.
00:01:02
Speaker
I should also mention that we have a terrestrial radio partner that is Hunters Bay Radio in Muskoka and every Saturday morning this podcast is repeated as well as many other fine podcasts. They've got a whole morning dedicated to podcasts. You will find us and others there.
00:01:21
Speaker
if you can tune into 88.7 FM in the Muskoka area or go to huntersbayradio.com. And we also have a new sponsor today. Keep this website in mind, theharrislegacy.ca.
00:01:38
Speaker
And this is about a new book that is coming out about Premier Mike Harris, who was Premier from 1995 to 2002 in Ontario. And the premise of the book is that we're living in Mike Harris' Ontario today, so it'll give you, the reader, an opportunity to explore the Harris legacy and have various reflections by various authors
00:02:04
Speaker
on basically Mike Harris as a transformational premier. The essay contributors include David Frum, Jack Mintz, Gord Miller, David Hurley and more. It is edited by Alistair Campbell. You can pre-order before October 1st and your name could be drawn for a signed copy. So go to theharrislegacy.ca to order yours now.
Guest Introduction and Discussion Overview
00:02:30
Speaker
Our guest today is Adam Chapnick. He is a teacher of defense studies at Canadian Forces College and is the author of Canada on the United Nations Security Council, a small power on a large stage. Adam, welcome to our show.
00:02:48
Speaker
Thanks very much for having me. So obviously the reason that I invited you on this podcast is for very infrequent times in Canadian politics is foreign policy and defense policy, national security, right up there in terms of top of mind stories. And we seem to be living in that world now.
Diplomatic Disputes: Canada and India
00:03:12
Speaker
In the past few days, obviously, the Canadian Parliament resumed and Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister, had a bombshell awaiting saying that he had credible evidence that the Indian government was behind the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijar, who was a Canadian citizen.
00:03:36
Speaker
a killing that took place in June in Surrey. And so we find ourselves in a major diplomatic dispute with India. At the end of the week, as a bookend,
00:03:52
Speaker
Vladimir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, addressed Canada's parliament, and so Canada, Ukraine, and the Russian-Ukraine war was top of mind. And of course, also last week, the government of Canada started its work via an independent commission on allegations of Chinese electoral interference by the Chinese Communist Party in Canada.
00:04:16
Speaker
So, Adam, you must feel, I mean, these are all very serious things, very serious, but in a sense, foreign policy is top of mind these days. What were your reactions to these stories?
00:04:30
Speaker
So three different stories, three different reactions. I don't think that Chinese electoral interference was a surprise. What was surprising there to me was the way that our national security establishment seemed to be a little bit less organized than it usually is. And that was disappointing. And there are a number of reasons that might have happened, but that was a little bit
00:04:52
Speaker
surprising. The Indian case is frustrating, very frustrating. At the same time, I'm of this school that India has never been a potential great ally of Canada anyway.
00:05:07
Speaker
So for me, I mean, this is a terrible story, but I don't think it changes nearly as much about the trajectory of Canadian foreign policy as some folks are making it out to be. What was refreshing about Ukraine is that all parties stood in the same place, unlike our ally to the south that is beginning to divide on support for Ukraine. So it was a relief to see that parliament seems to be standing firm on Canada's support for Ukraine.
Foreign Policy Challenges and Opportunities
00:05:34
Speaker
Turning back to India just for a second, because I am interested
00:05:37
Speaker
I know you're not an India expert and I want to predicate it with that, but it is kind of the large new story. But you're quite right in the sense that we've had a ups and downs with India in the past. People forget that we had
00:05:53
Speaker
I don't know whether we broke off relations or had very strained relations. Decades ago when we had deployed our nuclear technology for safe purposes of nuclear reactors in India, the Candu reactors, and India exploited that to explode a nuclear bomb. And that was kind of a real nadir of Canada-India relations decades ago.
00:06:22
Speaker
So, we've had our ups and downs before, is that right? Yes. I mean, that is the worst of it, but I gave a talk at Global Affairs a number of years ago about the UN and I had trade reps who came to my talk and I said, I'm glad that you came to hear me, but why are you here?
00:06:40
Speaker
And they said that Canada's opposition to India getting a permanent seat on the UN Security Council has hindered relations with India forever, basically, that it's a top foreign priority, foreign policy priority of India to get a permanent seat on the council. Canada is among the group of countries that is actively opposed to that. And as a result, it's almost impossible for trade relations to move with India. And they said this to me a decade ago.
00:07:07
Speaker
Well, I think that proves the point that it's been rocky for a good deal of time. Obviously, this is a multifaceted story because India's beef with Canada is that we have been far too tolerant of violent extremist elements seeking a Punjabi independent state, Kalistan, it would be called.
00:07:33
Speaker
breaking away from India, seceding from India. And that has been a major irritant from the Indian side. So do you see any chance of a quick solution to this issue right now?
00:07:49
Speaker
I don't because there's an ongoing investigation, and during an ongoing investigation, the Indians can claim plausible deniability, the Canadians can claim that there is evidence, we just can't reveal it. So I think for now, at least we are at a stalemate. It's disappointing because if the Indians have nothing to hide, they should be saying,
00:08:11
Speaker
We fully support a Canadian investigation to get to the bottom of this and to demonstrate that India had nothing to do with this. They aren't saying that it complicates things, but I really do think it can only get worse diplomatically right now through what they call tit-for-tat diplomacy. India will process visas more slowly. Canada will have to respond in some way. I don't see how it can get better right now.
00:08:36
Speaker
And that's another good point because there are real life implications for this. People seeking visas to come to Canada, Canadians seeking visas to go to India, trade relations. Obviously, there is a Canada-India trade mission to India that has been postponed. So this is not just a diplomatic farce that's going on here.
00:09:03
Speaker
One of the great things about Canada is how diverse we are. One of the challenges we have in international relations is that any dispute with basically any country is going to reverberate at home because we will have people who either are from that country or have relatives from that country, which makes us more susceptible to diplomatic back and forth sort of petty punishments to make a point.
00:09:29
Speaker
Yeah. And this is another thing that people are observing. I think, obviously, as a former politician, I've been aware of diaspora politics, as it's called. Is this a real impediment for our foreign policy, do you think?
00:09:42
Speaker
I think generally it should be a huge advantage. The cultural intelligence we should be able to gather because of the diversity of our population, the connections of our population should be a net positive. Our ability of our intelligence agencies to recruit sources from a variety of communities, of cultural communities should be a net benefit in the grand scheme of then gathering intelligence from around the world.
00:10:08
Speaker
That said, the benefit isn't free. It does come with potential costs that folks here can be vulnerable if they come from countries that are willing to kidnap or threaten their families and on and on that way. Let's broaden it out a little bit because you obviously have done a lot of thinking about Canadian foreign policy in the United Nations and elsewhere. What do you see as some of the opportunities for Canadian foreign policy and some of the things that are holding us back?
00:10:39
Speaker
I think that we have a tremendous opportunity in the long run in critical minerals. We have them if we can get them out of the ground in a manner that is legal, fair and just in collaboration with indigenous peoples. I think we provide all of our allies with a significant benefit and a way to avoid the dependence on China that China is trying to create around the world. So I see terrific potential there. We have some potential in terms of
00:11:09
Speaker
Our openness to immigration when some of our allies are a little bit more hesitant gives us something that differentiates us. In terms of challenges that we're facing, there was a norm until maybe 10, 15 years ago that if larger powers get in a fight, they don't take it out on middle-sized states like Canada.
00:11:31
Speaker
They might take it out on smaller states, but not on middle-sized states. I think the Chinese and the Saudis have broken that unspoken rule, and that makes us significantly more vulnerable to sometimes conflicts that are outside of our control. I mean, the Saudis was within our control to a degree.
00:11:51
Speaker
But the conflict with China that led to the two Michaels was outside of our control. And if the rules of international diplomacy have changed for the worse, we as a relatively smaller country in terms of our power are now much more vulnerable than we were before. Yeah, it certainly seems that way.
US-Canada Relationship and Security Concerns
00:12:10
Speaker
And really the United we've we've had a during the Cold War had the advantage of
00:12:18
Speaker
being protected by the US and its foreign policy goals, but that seems to be on the wane right now. I think that the period before President Biden was somewhat exceptional in that I think the American foreign policy establishment generally understands that it's in America's national interest to have a good relationship with Canada.
00:12:41
Speaker
So I think that depending on who becomes the next president, we may be okay in terms of our relationship with the Americans. I mean, I'll even note on this India situation that when folks started saying that America was not supporting Canada on this, the Biden administration came out twice and said, that's not true. And allowed information to come out that Canada got some of its intelligence from a Five Eyes ally. And the only Five Eyes ally that likely was able to produce that kind of intelligence was the United States. Not New Zealand.
00:13:10
Speaker
Yeah, definitely not in New Zealand, although there remain an important ally and a valuable partner. So I'm not as concerned about the relationship with the United States, at least right now, but I am concerned with the idea that if non-allies of Canada don't find us useful, it will be
00:13:33
Speaker
They may find reasons to think that they benefit from taking out their frustrations on countries like us. That isn't helpful. That isn't helpful to us. And there's only so much we can actually do about it, which is the most frustrating part. And we've got some vulnerabilities, including the Arctic as well. That's an area that has increasing large power interest and declaring of interest and goals. So this is something that should concern it, should it not?
00:14:03
Speaker
Yeah, I think now that every Arctic Council state except for Russia is going to also be a member of NATO, I think that that is going to help us on the diplomatic front in the Arctic and on the security front in the Arctic, as long as we do our fair share.
00:14:19
Speaker
We've traditionally talked about doing our fair share, but we usually end up doing the bare minimum or just enough. The bar for just enough is probably going to rise, I would suspect, over the next few years. Well, let's delve into that a little bit more since you've brought up NATO, because that's been one of the continuing messages that we get from our NATO allies and partners that Canada isn't pulling its weight. Is that a fair accusation to make?
00:14:50
Speaker
I think that there's some fairness to it and some unfairness to it as well. A book came out about the history of Canada and NATO by a couple of people who really know what they're talking about.
00:15:03
Speaker
Joseph Jocko a couple of years ago and I read it and every chapter from the 1950s on is a story of the United States and some of our allies, other allies complaining that we're not doing enough in NATO. So the complaining about Canada not doing enough in NATO is persistent and it's everlasting and it will probably always be there. So at one level it's nothing new.
00:15:24
Speaker
At the same time, if you pledge to spend 2% of your gross domestic product on defense, and if you pledge that publicly and then you don't do it, your allies have a right to criticize you for not keeping your word.
00:15:39
Speaker
So, fair to criticize. Now, if we asked any of those allies would they rather have us at 1.3 than work with some of the other countries that are over 3, one country which uses most of its NATO spending to deal with Turkey, they'll genuinely quietly say, yes, we know that your 1.3 is worth a heck of a lot more. We're also the seventh biggest spender in NATO.
00:16:05
Speaker
So it may only be one point three, but given the wealth in our economy, the one point three goes a lot further than some of our allies, two percent. Right. So it goes both ways there. Yeah. And and we obviously have we do have some NATO missions in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe. So there is something going on with Canada's contribution.
00:16:28
Speaker
Yes, and no one ever complains about our troops. They're never a complaint there about their leadership, their professionalism, their engagement. They are usually caveat free, unlike some of our fellow militaries. So we never have complaints with the folks
Flexibility in Foreign Policy and Military Perspectives
00:16:42
Speaker
that we send. We just usually hear, you aren't sending enough, or send them with more equipment.
00:16:46
Speaker
Right, right, right. So as a foreign policy observer and writer yourself, what should be some of the things that we try to project in terms of our foreign policy in the future?
00:16:59
Speaker
That's a great question. I'm going to spin it a bit because I think we should simply project less, which leaves us more flexibility when we're asked by our allies to help. I think in Canada we have a quasi-obsession with showing leadership in world affairs, and there isn't a direct relationship between the amount of leadership you show and your successful pursuit of the national interest.
00:17:23
Speaker
What we're trying to do is promote, defend, and secure our national interests. Doing that when you aren't a great power requires a great deal of flexibility and the ability to respond positively to your allies when they ask. If you spend a whole bunch of diplomatic and possibly also fiscal capital looking to lead stuff, there isn't much left when your allies come asking for something else. And really, it's our big allies that determine
00:17:50
Speaker
where our foreign policy is going to go, I'd prefer that we remain flexible, stop looking for places to lead and start looking more for places to be helpful and keep our word and be consistent. Are there particular things that we shouldn't be doing that we're doing now then?
00:18:07
Speaker
Given how little we commit fiscally to international affairs in general, it's hard to say we should stop doing particular things because we do so little in general.
00:18:21
Speaker
But looking for signature initiatives, that I don't have a lot of time for. My fear if I said there's something we shouldn't be doing is it would be replaced either by no spending or domestic spending, that it wouldn't be replaced by keeping something in your back pocket for when your allies request some help. You're obviously teaching students at the college, too. What's their perspective on all of this?
00:18:48
Speaker
I think we get a range of perspectives from the folks that I work with, intermediate and senior level military personnel. There isn't a group think among the military personnel that I teach. So the spectrum that you hear in the popular media is covered by the folks that I work with. Interesting. And these are people who've obviously chosen the military as a career. So would you find them idealistic or are they pragmatic or a little bit of both?
00:19:17
Speaker
I think that anyone who is willing to accept unlimited liability in support of their country is by definition idealistic. I don't think you can't be in and put your life on the line and put the stress on your family of doing what these people do. So idealistic basically automatically. Yeah, interesting. And are they reflecting the diversity of the country more and more too?
00:19:43
Speaker
Slowly. Gradually. But it is, and the effort is there and hopefully there will be results over time. Interesting. Adam, what, I guess as a final point, because we're getting close to the end of the podcast here, but from your point of view, are you optimistic about Canada when it comes to
00:20:06
Speaker
this turbulent world that we find ourselves in, would yours be a message of concern about future danger? I look at this from a historical point of view and what I see there is that every number of years somebody tells me this is the most dangerous the world has ever been.
Global Threats and Foreign Influence
00:20:27
Speaker
To me, when atomic weapons were launched in Japan, that was pretty scary. I don't know. So I think we tend to exaggerate how different the present is from the past. If I'm going to be scared right now, I'm fearing the political trajectory of the United States.
00:20:51
Speaker
that because we need America to be our loyal, reliable, dependable ally, there really is no way forward in foreign policy without that. Now, I believe the Americans are the most resilient society in the world, so I'm very hopeful that they can dig themselves out of this. But if my fear, it's there, because to me, the liberal democratic system, put up against any other system,
00:21:17
Speaker
We will survive. We will do fine. Our biggest threat is from within. If we undermine our own system, then we may not be able to compete. Otherwise, generally we have competed well and we will continue to do so.
00:21:30
Speaker
And to that extent, are you concerned about, again, returning to this topic of foreign influence? At least Russia and China, perhaps Iran and others do use social media to try to promote their own propaganda view of the world. So is that something that concerns you as infecting our political system here in Canada?
00:21:57
Speaker
I think they got a head start, and what I mean by that is that the folks who want to undermine us are using a technology that those in charge didn't learn about in school when they were kids, which meant that they had a vulnerability. My hope is the next generation will be better educated in terms of media literacy,
00:22:18
Speaker
which will make us as a country less vulnerable to this sort of manipulation. But the folks who want to do bad are usually a step ahead, and it usually takes us a little while to catch up. I think that's where we are right now. We're trying to catch up. The technology that was unleashed, we underestimated its potential impact. It had a huge impact south of the border, and now we're grasping. But typically, we're pretty resilient, and my hope is we continue to be so.
Resilience of Liberal Democracies
00:22:46
Speaker
Yeah, and I just want to make this comment too, because we were talking about division in society, and I guess I raised that question. But I like the fact that you're using historical sort of prism to review this, because there have been times in the past where Canada has been terribly divided. I think of the October crisis in 1970 as a good example, where violence was taking place in Quebec and kidnappings, murders, letter bombs, the whole
00:23:16
Speaker
the whole thing. And then in the United States, one always hears America has never been more divided. Well, the Vietnam War is pretty divisive and the Civil War killed 750,000 people. So historical context is important, isn't it?
00:23:33
Speaker
I think it really is. The big difference between now and before is the speed at which events happen. That said, we're also conditioned to work at a faster speed. So hopefully, ideally, those two things will largely cancel one another out. I mean, bottom line, we live in a society where not everybody shares our view of good, where not everyone shares our values, and that's going to be a competitive and sometimes difficult society.
00:24:01
Speaker
Fortunately, we live under a liberal democratic system that it seems to me is a really successful system that brings out the best. And if we can not undermine it ourselves, I think we have a good chance of being OK.
00:24:15
Speaker
Adam, thanks for sharing your points of view on this. We covered a wide gamut of issues. It just seems to be apropos given the headlines in this country. So thanks for coming on the podcast. Before you go and we hang up, I do want to thank our sponsors once again, Municipal Solutions at municipalsolutions.ca.
00:24:34
Speaker
The Harris Legacy, a new book out on Mike Harris and how Ontario is transformed because of his premiership. That's at theharrislegacy.ca. And again, our terrestrial radio partners, huntersbayradio.com. We'll be back in just a few days. Adam, thanks for joining us today. My pleasure. Thank you for having me.