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EPISODE 4: FANTASY FUN!
70 Plays1 year ago
We take a look at some ADP differences between Redraft & Dynasty, play some Keep-Trade-Cut & Guess That Player as well as answer the Mailbag!
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Transcript
Introduction and New Music
00:00:08
Speaker
Welcome to the Nonstop Fantasy Weekly Dynasty podcast. We are here with your hosts, Dave Reed, Ray Wilkinson, and Joey Gallo.
00:00:25
Speaker
Oh yeah, we got real legit opening music. DJ Dirty Work, Harrison Kipple finally came through. He did it after we badgering him for weeks. We got, we're legit podcast guys. How do you feel? Yeah, I mean, awesome intro by DJ Dirty Work. If that doesn't get you pumped for a fantasy analysis, I don't know what will. Yeah baby, we're ready to go.
00:00:49
Speaker
We are ready.
Analyzing ADP Data
00:00:51
Speaker
And it is episode four every episode, something new. I'm loving it. Keep you guys on your toes. So we are officially in the dog days of the summer here. So not a lot of a fantasy news coming out at this time of the year, but we figured it might be fun to do, you know, a couple of games to analyze the maybe P data, just, you know, keep it, keep it fresh there for, for the listeners here. So we love content, right?
00:01:18
Speaker
never content with enough content. That's right. So first thing we're going to dive into is start looking at some ADP data because obviously this is Dynasty podcast. We're playing in the Dynasty League, but all of us were also redraw players and that's actually where we got our chops at.
00:01:35
Speaker
And I always find it interesting to look at the data for ADP between Redraft and Dynasty because obviously it's a different game. And Dynasty skews far more towards long-term potential, youth, the team situation, contract injuries, etc.
00:01:50
Speaker
But even though it is dynasty, it does feel like sometimes dynasty players overvalue use a little bit too much because the main goal of the game is the same as redraft, so win a title. And because of that, veterans often end up being pretty solid values in dynasty leagues.
00:02:09
Speaker
In reality, it's really tough to look beyond two to three years and down to see player situations change so much. And a lot of the players that we'll mention, even though they're getting in the tail end of their careers, they still will probably produce for about two to three more years. And in season, veterans actually seem to gain a lot more value because teams realize they need additional firepower. So you can actually trade your veterans for a lot more once you're in the season.
00:02:34
Speaker
In the off-season, they're dead. No one wants any of these old and busted guys. So to do this analysis, we pulled the ADP data from Underdog for Redraft and the ADP data from Sleeper for Superflex Dynasty. Now obviously, Superflex and Dynasty versus single QB in Redraft is a little hard to compare for strict ADP, but when you start looking at positional-only rankings, you start seeing where the differences lie.
00:02:59
Speaker
Also excluding rookies from this analysis because in Dynasty of rookies, since they're obviously young and there's all the unknown potential, they get a boost, but in Redraft we know that rookies typically don't produce early on or at all, so they're still fighting for playing time, so they usually get suppressed a little bit.
00:03:17
Speaker
But with that, let's jump on
Quarterback ADP Insights
00:03:20
Speaker
into it. So the first position quarterback. So there's a couple of players that I noticed that are viewed or valued a little bit higher in dynasty than redraft. And those are Kyler Murray, who in dynasty is the QB 15 and is the 22 QB in redraft and Trey Lance, my boy.
00:03:37
Speaker
The QB19 dynasty and in redraft is QB31. But on the flip side of that, you've got players who are more valuable in redraft, like Tuha, I'm not even going to try to say his last name. It's the QB10 in redraft at 14 in dynasty. Ann Rogers is 16 in redraft, 24 in dynasty. And Matthew Stafford, QB20 in redraft and 31 in dynasty. So, Brian and Joe, let's hear your thoughts on those differences there.
00:04:05
Speaker
Yeah, I could jump in first, right? Yeah, so first thought, I mean, obviously there's a little bit of value in redraft on Kyler Murray if he actually ends up playing, right? I mean, I think that there's a good, there's a lot of conjecture as to will he play week one? Will he play mid-season? Will he play at all? I think generally speaking, I agree with your commentary that the guys in, the guys whose ADP is higher
00:04:35
Speaker
In dynasty is going to they're gonna be there's gonna be some value there, right? I mean in the current year, right? So if you think about guys like to Rogers obviously Stafford I have on my squad. These are guys that are that are likely to put up Big numbers this year. I mean Rogers was League MVP a couple years ago so I think that they'll there's there's value to be had and When it comes to guys like Trey Lance here, I feel like in my
00:05:05
Speaker
I, in my opinion, and I know this is going to probably say something bad about Dave's quarterback. It just, it just feels like, it just feels like, uh, valuing a guy like Trey Lance and dynasty. Sometimes they can kind of turn out to be fool's gold, right? Because it's a situation where you're like, well, there there's a lot, there's a lot of, uh, potential and hopes and dreams, but you know, you don't, you don't know what that's going to, uh, um,
00:05:35
Speaker
amount to. So not to say that it won't work out, but there's obviously question and risk and you're making your pick there with kind of hopes and dreams of something materializing versus the other guys who you know for sure will be out on the field and will be producing and putting up points that you can leverage to hopefully win a championship in the current year.
00:05:58
Speaker
Yeah, so yeah, I pretty much agree. I'm not too surprised with Kyler Murray and Trey Lance. I love seeing them both as the two main QB outliers, considering my two co-hosts are the owners of the two QBs. But I think people are still holding on hope for both of them long-term. So there's a little more dynasty value there. And then this year specifically, most people wouldn't want either.
00:06:26
Speaker
currently as their QB in redraft. So, you know, Kyler needs to prove he's still the guy, show he's recovered from his ACL injury. Trey Lance needs to hope he still gets a chance to prove he's the guy and also recover from his ankle injury. There's a lot of talk that Brock Purdy is actually the starter if he's healthy. So it's hard to draft Trey Lance and redraft when it's just this year and there's so many question marks. So to see his value that much lower than redraft makes sense.
00:06:55
Speaker
And then, you know, Rogers, Stafford to a kind of what Joe said, you know, Rogers, I think is kind of the classic age gap scenario where people are expecting big things from him this year, but he only has a year or two left. So you're not going to draft them as high and redraft unless, you know, you're not too worried about replacing him. And Stafford pretty much a similar situation. So.
00:07:20
Speaker
There definitely could be some value there if you're looking to win a championship this year and you don't mind having to replace them in a year or two.
00:07:38
Speaker
We will. We will see.
Running Back ADP Analysis
00:07:40
Speaker
We will see. Moving on to the running backs. Running backs from wide receivers is where I think you start seeing some even more significant value. Some running backs are more valuable in Dynasty. You've got Breece Hall, who's the running back three in Dynasty, 11 in Redraft. Jamar Gibbs, who's six in Dynasty, 14 in Redraft, and Kenneth Wallfaire,
00:07:59
Speaker
RB8 in dynasty 16 in redraft and even Javonka Williams RB16 in dynasty and 29 in redraft all young guns there and then on the flip side You got Austin Eckler who is the number two in redraft and still number seven in dynasty It's still a gap, but still an RB1 Nick Chubb is the four in redraft 12 in dynasty Aaron Jones 17 in redraft and 26 in dynasty
00:08:25
Speaker
Alexander Madison, who's the 19 in redraft and 33 in dynasty. And then Jevonta's running mate, Sumajah Piran, who's the 35 in redraft and 48 in dynasty. So what are some of your thoughts on these guys?
00:08:39
Speaker
So Breece Hall for me was actually the biggest surprise when I took a look at the list of these guys. I was shocked to see he's going as low as RB11 in redraft, but extremely high in Dynasty. I feel like the situation usually happens with lower level guys, where it's like he's probably going to do nothing this year. So he could have some long-term value, but in redraft he's lower. But here, he's almost the first RB taken off the board in Dynasty.
00:09:09
Speaker
If his dynasty value is obviously sky high, he's 22 years old, he was ripping off huge fantasy games last year before the injury and it seems as though the dynasty community obviously has zero concern that the injury is going to cause him any issues going forward.
00:09:26
Speaker
You know, looking at the Jets, a lot of people are talking about them as Super Bowl contenders as well. You would think his redraft would honestly be close to where he's being drafted in dynasty. So I was pretty surprised to see him that low and that much of a gap. Kenneth Walker, Devontae Williams, both kind of age scenarios for me, both kind of
00:09:47
Speaker
middle and the pack guys for redraft, but because they're young, they're going quite a bit higher in dynasty. And then Eckler, Chubb, and Jones are really the opposite of that. They're older, so although they're expected to be top backs this year, they're going to go a little lower in dynasty. And then Madison, you know, he's going so much higher in redraft because of this specific situation. It looks like he could have a shot at the lead back role this year, and that's valuable. So people are willing to take a shot this year, but
00:10:16
Speaker
People probably don't think he's going to be a great guy for years to come. So his dynasty is a little bit lower. Yeah, the Madison one is interesting to me because I know he's been in the league. I think this is his fifth year. He's 26 or 27 years old, something like that. He's on the older side. But if you really value Madison enough to think that he'll be an RB2 this year,
00:10:45
Speaker
potentially with RB1 upside is what a lot of the community seems to think. And he's just gonna... He's probably 25 just for the record. Oh, he's actually falling back. That's in Dynasty or Redraft? No, he's 25 years old. 25, sorry. Yeah. So yeah, I mean, for him to be going as an RB2 in Redraft and an RB3 in Dynasty doesn't exactly make a ton of sense to me. I would
00:11:13
Speaker
If I was in on him in redraft, I would be in on him at around a similar position in dynasty, I guess is what I'm saying, because these running backs don't have a long shelf life anyway. So when you take a guy like even Javante Williams, right? Like if you get three or four really good years out of him right now, that would be an above average ideal scenario. And if Madison can put together half of that, two good years, right? If he's great this year,
00:11:43
Speaker
He'll likely be, he'll likely be good next year too. I think they gave him a two year deal. Um, yeah, they did. So, um, on breeze hall and Givante Williams, I look at these two similarly. Um, to me, it's all about that kind of like recovery from ACL injury. Um, that seems to be, you know, for all, for many running backs, kind of aside from Adrian Peterson.
00:12:10
Speaker
It kind of takes that first year back is usually a little bit slower. And I guess for other position groups too, right? Like you look at a guy like Michael Gallup who was kind of slow last year and the community seems to be slightly higher on him. I think the Cowboys too are expecting a little more from him second year off the injury. So I kind of agree with those. Like those actually make a little more sense to me that those guys might be a little bit
00:12:40
Speaker
tempered in redraft, especially Givante, who his injury was catastrophic. And there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff out there, even in the news now that he's hoping to be ready for week one. And I don't care if he's ready and he's out there week one. You know, we looked at JK Dobbins. He was out there early last year and he was not the same back that he was before the injury. And not to say that he's not going to regain. I think he will. I think Givante will definitely regain.
00:13:09
Speaker
But I don't think it'll be until the back half of this year, similar to Breeze Hall, right? I mean, the Jets wouldn't be kicking around the idea of bringing in Dalvin Cook if they were expecting Breeze Hall to be 100% right from the get-go. So I mean, I know that Dynasty kind of turns us all into medical experts, same situation going on with quarterbacks, with Tua. Everybody's kind of like a concussion expert when they're drafting Tua in Dynasty and Stafford.
00:13:39
Speaker
you know, it's obviously you're making a lot of assumptions on the long term health. But you know, I think that's, for me, those are the ones that stick that stuck out. And yeah, I think, at least from a running back standpoint, it maybe makes a little more sense to me. Yeah.
Wide Receiver ADP Discussion
00:13:58
Speaker
And I mean,
00:13:59
Speaker
Jevonta thinks you can be ready for training camp, just saying for my own value. But no, I agree. The injury always takes longer, and the player always thinks they're healthier than they end up being. But I think the biggest thing to me is guys like Echler, Chubb, and Aaron Jones, those guys couldn't easily win a team championship this year, and they're suppressed values. So even in season, it's probably going to be a lot harder to get a guy like Kenneth Walker than it is to get Austin Echler.
00:14:29
Speaker
even though I think lost an actor or like Nick Chott, even though they can provide way more value, especially this year. And you don't even know if these younger players will ever reach the output in a season that the older veterans can. Moving to wide receiver, we have a couple of players. There's more that are higher than redraft that I noticed, but the few that were a little bit higher in dynasty that I saw were
00:14:50
Speaker
Michael Pittman, who is the 33 wide receiver off the board in redraft and 24 in dynasty. George Pickens, who in dynasty is 26, but in redraft is 40. And Jameson Williams, who's 29 in dynasty and 49 in redraft. And then on the flip, you got Cooper Cupp, who's the number three in redraft and 12 in dynasty. Devonta Adams, who's the number nine in redraft and 16 in dynasty. Calvin Ridley,
00:15:15
Speaker
uh after two years not playing is the 16 in redraft and 25 in dynasty got Amari Cooper 18 in redraft and 33 in dynasty Keenan Allen 19 in redraft 39 in dynasty and Mike Williams his running mate who's 25 in redraft and 41 in dynasty so what are your thoughts here
00:15:38
Speaker
So Mike Williams was probably my biggest surprise here and not just because I have him. I just thought that was a pretty significant gap between his values. He is 28. So obviously he's on the older side, but he could still have some productive years ahead of him. And if you're expecting him to be wide receiver 25 and redraft, then I'm, I don't see why his dynasty value would take such a hit. Um, but obviously.
00:16:06
Speaker
I think a lot of the guys that you just went over, it's mostly an age issue. You know, Cup and Adams, they should be top guys this year, but they are older. So their dynasty value is starting to take a hit. So nothing else really stood out to me too much. So Joe, why don't you go ahead? Yeah, I mean, Mike Williams feels to me like it's a similar situation as Tua and, you know, maybe some of these other guys who were talked about where the he
00:16:36
Speaker
He can't shake the injury prone bug, you know, where it's kind of ridiculous that he and Keenan Allen are going within two picks of each other, basically at the same ADP in Dynasty when Williams is much younger than Keenan and should in theory have many more productive years ahead of him. But again, I think he has this impression as an injury prone guy. And I mean, that's because he is an injury prone guy.
00:17:03
Speaker
He doesn't know which I don't get. Yeah, when he's out there, it's the same. There are similar situation, right? Like when both of those guys are out there and maybe people have soured on Mike Williams because they added Quinn Johnson and maybe they think that, you know, they have a similar athletic profile. So, you know, the Chargers have kind of mentally are getting ready to move on. But the ones that kind of stuck out to me,
00:17:30
Speaker
Pittman and Pickens, I just don't understand how, if you're not super in on either of them in Redraft, how you could be more in on them in Dynasty. It doesn't seem like their situations are a lot to change too much over the next, I don't know, two to four years at least, right? So we're talking like the prime of their career. Pittman is probably gonna have Anthony Richardson as his quarterback.
00:17:57
Speaker
will probably have Kenny Pickett. I mean, we'll see what happens with Kenny Pickett. But again, for there to be a two round disparity between those two Redraft Dynasty, not sure that I totally get that. And Calvin Ridley, I mean, I just want to say that he is being
00:18:17
Speaker
being dragged along by the Trevor Lawrence hype train. He's just he's got both hands on the rope. And Trevor Lawrence hype train is out of fucking control. That is why Calvin and I mean, you know, people remember Ridley, but also it's just, you know, like people are high on the Jags this year, people are high on Lawrence that offense to Jags. I mean, I'm, I'm not necessarily low on Ridley, I wouldn't draft him as
00:18:43
Speaker
you know, as my wide receiver too, I don't think I'm not that confident, especially in redress. I am too, not just too early too. Yeah. Yeah.
00:18:52
Speaker
So that's my thoughts. Yeah. And then looking down to tight end, there honestly wasn't a lot of differences in ADP at the tight end position. Tight ends kind of craps you to begin with. So even if you're getting older, like the Kelsey's, you're still going to be valued. And there's only a couple of lead options, but one that stuck out was Ryan's boy, Gerald Everett, who in redraft was 18 in Dynasty 25. So since you got an emotional attachment to him, Ryan, I'll let you start with this one.
00:19:20
Speaker
Yeah, my boy. During our draft, I was praying no one would take him that round as we didn't have a tight end at the time. And he was pretty much the last one that we could throw into the starting slot and then figure out the tight end position next year. So I'm assuming his dynasty value is lower because of his age. But I'm happy to see he's being drafted higher and redraft for this year because he's pretty much the only starting tight end we have on our team. Yeah.
00:19:50
Speaker
I don't have a lot of thoughts on Gerald ever. There isn't much thought today. There's not much there. There isn't much to say there. All right. He's out. Moving on to keep things fresh. I thought we'd play some games. A game. A game. A game. A game.
Keep Trade Cut Game Introduction
00:20:05
Speaker
Yes. Ah, I love games. Pick me. All right, here's the game. All right, here's the game. The first game we're going to be playing is Keep Trade Cut. You should all know this game pretty well. I'm going to give you three players, and you tell me which ones you're going to keep.
00:20:19
Speaker
trade and cut. Pretty simple. You guys ready for the first one here? Let's do it. All right. First one. We got Kyle Pitts, Devonta Smith, and Travis Etienne. Joe, you want to go first? Yeah. The keep is definitively Devonta Smith. I think that one. I'm far and away the highest on him of those three. So that was easy.
00:20:50
Speaker
I don't really care for pits or ETN, but I think that ETN probably has a little more value. I think he's also getting a little bit of a tailwind from the Trevor Lawrence hype train. So I think I would cut pits and trade ETN.
00:21:12
Speaker
Yeah, I actually was going to say the exact same thing. I talked a lot on the last podcast about how I'm very low on pits. So he would definitely be my cut. And then I think you have to keep Smith out of him and Etienne. So also, Dave, we need to add a counter of how many times Joe insults someone on your team so we can keep track. I'm mentally keeping track. It's funny that I that
00:21:43
Speaker
It's just the, I'm just giving the opinions. I had to open up Dave's team and put it in front of me so that I, so that I maybe shy away from sharing. Yeah. I don't want to make it seem like I'm singling him out. I'll throw Ryan's team up there. No, no, it's great. It's great. Well, those three players, Pitts was actually, has an ADP at three 10, Devontas three 11, ETN four oh one. So those guys were all grouped together. Um, but it seems like you'd actually slide Pitts all the way to the end in that one. So moving on to number two.
00:22:13
Speaker
You got three players who are in the back half of the fifth round. You got Derek Henry, Jevonta Williams, and Damien Pierce. And we're doing this in terms of like dynasty value, right? Yeah, and we could do it in our league settings as well. Yeah, yeah. That's a tough one. Who was the third? Henry Williams and Damien Pierce.
00:22:40
Speaker
Honestly, I probably would keep Williams. I'm going to hope he turns it around a little bit. And then it just depends if you want to win now. I probably would trade Pierce and cut Henry. Bold strategy I know, but thinking Dynasty, I guess. Yeah, that's what I would do.
00:23:08
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. Williams would be my key. I think you could probably get more for Henry on the trade market. And Pierce, I have my questions about Pierce's role in the new regime and Devin Singletary is in there. He'll probably get some volume. So I think I'd probably try to shop Henry to somebody who was looking to win now and
00:23:37
Speaker
You wait for that first 200 rushing game, then you trade Henry. That's what you do. Because you know what's coming. Now, moving on, the players in a similar round, a little bit after the second grouping, we got DJ Moore, Jerry Judy, and George Kittle. Mind you, this is in our setting, so a tight end preview. Yeah, I would keep Kittle, I think.
00:24:05
Speaker
just because of the tight end premium. And honestly, personally, I'm just kind of out on DJ more and Jerry Judy. I know there's a lot of hype honestly around both, you know, turning around a little bit this year, but I feel like there's DJ more hype every single year and then it never pans out. Um, so I probably would cut DJ more and trade Jerry Judy.
00:24:29
Speaker
Yeah, DJ more would be my cut. I agree. It's tough for me between kiddo and Judy, which I would keep in which I would look to trade. I'm I'm not I think I think there are others out there who are higher on Judy. I am optimistic about Judy this year. I do think that there's upside. And
00:24:54
Speaker
Kittle might be able to, not only is he older, he might be able to bring in more on the trade block. So maybe just to give a different perspective, I would maybe cut more, keep Judy, hope that in Sean Payton's offense. I've been reading a lot of things online. I've shared with some of the guys that the role that Judy, if he plays the Michael Thomas role in the Sean Payton offense with kind of like the,
00:25:24
Speaker
the short slant routes and he could get a ton of volume ton of targets, it could really really utilize his skill set as a elite route runner and he actually could have a better year than he has, you know, demonstrated. Yeah, he was a really highly regarded prospect out of college and through the combine. So I think
00:25:49
Speaker
As much as I love Kittle, as much as I think Brock Purdy is going to be the quarterback there, and as much as Brock Purdy loves the tight end, maybe I try and get more for Kittle on the trade market and roll the dice with Judy. What about if Trey Lance was quarterback?
00:26:07
Speaker
If Trey Lance was quarterback, I definitively would keep Judy because it's nothing, it's nothing necessarily against Lance. I would, I would have the same opinion if, if Garoppolo was the quarterback there too. These are just guys who like historically have not targeted the tight end and Brock Purdy just
00:26:28
Speaker
was hammering George Kittle with targets. Which is why I think Kittle loves him. And Joe and I have killed another league and it was like a revelation. We were getting ready to trade him. I had some serious buyer's remorse with Kittle. And Rock Purdy came in to save the day. Huge games. All right, moving to the next group. About a round later than the group before this, we got James and Williams. Yeah, James and Williams, Brandon Ayuk, and Terry McLaurin.
00:26:59
Speaker
Three spot of young wide receivers. Or young, yes, Terry's getting older, I guess. Yeah, go ahead, Joe. Yeah, so this one is similar situation as last time. I mean, I like all of these guys. I think McLaurin would pretty confidently be my cut, and then
00:27:27
Speaker
think I would probably, I love Jameson Williams. I do, I really do. But I think that the right decision is to keep Ayuk and try to trade Jameson Williams on the promise that he can turn into an explosive receiver with the little that he's demonstrated when Ayuk I think is confidently already demonstrated that he has the ability to be a number one.
00:27:52
Speaker
Yeah, as much as I hate to say it because I have him, I probably would cut Terry. And then I probably would keep Williamson, I think, and trade a uke. But it's definitely close. It just depends on if you think Jameson is going to have a big year this year, which seems like a lot of people do. Everyone's out on trailing this, but Love Jameson doesn't make any sense. Joking.
00:28:21
Speaker
Moving on to the final group here. We got a three-pack of running backs. We got AJ Dillon, James Connor, and Alvin Kamara. Tough one. That's right. I think you got to cut Kamara just with his situation right now.
00:28:53
Speaker
Uh, who was the second one? James Connor. Connor, right. I'd probably keep Connor, see what I could get for AJ Dylan and maybe cut Camara. Cause I feel like with his current situation, people are kind of out on him right now. So that's probably what I would do. Yeah. Um,
00:29:21
Speaker
I'm not particularly high on any of these guys. Just let the record go. I think I would cut Dylan. I didn't love his yards per carry numbers from last year. And when Aaron Jones was putting up significantly better numbers against running with the same offensive line, it's a little concerning. And maybe, I agree, I think Connor is the keep.
00:29:49
Speaker
He has, he'll get volume in Arizona. If Kyler's healthy, they'll be, you know, a good offense, functional offense, even with Kyler not healthy. James Connor was very, very strong at the end of last year and maybe try to trade Kamara on the prospects that
00:30:07
Speaker
You know, he, his felony was downgraded to, uh, whether they, what was it like a misdemeanor maybe, or just, yeah. And maybe he'll be suspended for a shorter period of time and you know, the name and Derek Carr. Yeah. I feel like, I feel like there's got to be somebody in the league who would overpay for the name. So I think I would try and trade Camara.
00:30:34
Speaker
Yeah, I should note, it does seem like Kamara was disappointed last year anyway, and he's getting older, so I do think he's starting to fall off a bit. It was a misdemeanor, although I don't think the legality aspect of it, it matters a little bit, but I think it proved that, and there's video of it, that he did something wrong. Because he got a better deal from a legal standpoint, I still think the league is going to take a serious look there.
00:30:59
Speaker
But yeah, so that was our first game. We're gonna move on to the next one. I hope everyone liked it. Hope you played at home In the comments tell us who you would have kept trade and cut there. You need some more interactions here All right, and then we got another game. We're gonna do guess that player All right, so this will be a fun one to play out with everyone I'm gonna give Five facts I'm gonna go in order to give one fact
00:31:28
Speaker
see how our co-hosts here are trending, if they think they know what it is or not, that if they don't, I'll move on to the next fact.
Guess That Player Game
00:31:35
Speaker
And hopefully they can figure it out before, or figure it out by the fifth fact. And at home, feel free to play along as well. So with that said, I'm gonna start off with our first player. We got six players here. The first one, he finished as a top 10 quarterback in 2022 for the second time in his career. Hmm.
00:32:00
Speaker
Let me know if I can move on. Yeah. Yeah. I think we need probably need more, right? There's probably at least 10 quarterback. You're thinking that. Okay. Um, did the first 11 games last year, he finished outside the top 12, nine out of 11 of those games, but finished in, uh, in the final six, he finished in the top seven four out of those six games. So slow first 11 games, strong back half.
00:32:29
Speaker
Trevor Lawrence. I was just going to say that sounds like last year. You think it'd be propaganda from a team, but I am not that kind of host people. All right. I'll move on. Has supported a wide receiver one, four different years, including one year with two wide receivers in the top 13.
00:32:51
Speaker
And he had a fifth year where he supported a separate wide receiver 13th finish. So he basically had five different years where he supported wide receiver one and one of those years he supported two wide receiver ones. This is tough. All right, I'll move on. Has only rushed for more than a hundred yards in the season once.
00:33:20
Speaker
He had one season where he had 99, so in depth of count, that is not 100 yard rush. He's only rush, so he's not a rushing quarterback. Huh. Ready for the last clue? Yeah, let's hear it. He is a former number one overall draft pick. Again, not Trevor Lawrence.
00:33:57
Speaker
Does this sound like a quarterback you'd want on your team? Yeah. Say the last one again. Former number one overall draft pick. Oh, former number one overall draft pick. No. Who is it, Jeff?
00:34:30
Speaker
I'm going to say three, two, one, Jared Goff. That was, I should've said it. I'm like, I'm like, did he really go one overall? I was never going to guess that. Yeah. Yes. Uh, he, he's big seasons and he, in 2019, woods and cooks on the Rams were the top in the top 13. And then in 2022 woods was also on the top.
00:34:58
Speaker
And he's currently the Dynasty 27 quarterback at 29 years old. Yeah. Seems like a value. I was going to say, that's interesting. That makes him seem like a huge value there. And at the pass happy offense over there, and everyone loves Jameson, and everyone loves Iman, Sun God. So I'm just saying, seems like a good value target there. All right. Number two in nine seasons has never finished as a QB one.
00:35:29
Speaker
Economy here Right in 2023 had seven QB one finishes but four finishes outside of the top 24 Kirk cousins. Nope. Good guess. Oh, we're going Nine seasons. I know I'm trying to think of older guys. I
00:36:00
Speaker
All right, move to fact number three. Has supported a pass catcher who eclipsed the thousand yard mark each of the last four seasons. Matthew Stafford? Nope. All right, the last eight seasons he averaged 128 targets
00:36:28
Speaker
a year to the running back position, which is about eight targets per game, and 120 targets per year over the last four seasons, which is about seven a game. Derek Carr. Derek Carr is the answer. Joey, the last one, he's playing for a new team in 2023. And I said pass catcher because Derek Waller was one of the 1,000-yard receiver, wasn't wide receiver, but he passed four years targeted.
00:36:57
Speaker
at least one player so Chris Olave could be that thousand-yard receiver this year and he seems to target the running back position a lot and that was what elevated obviously Josh Jacobs last year got a ton of play a lot of rushes but he also got a lot of receptions as well he's always always had one uh running back he's had like about 40 to 50 like targets and receptions so it's a good running back situation also target obviously we talked about Camara but
00:37:21
Speaker
They got, who is it, J Will over there as well at running back position, and then Keyandre Miller. So some value to potentially be had in New Orleans. All right, number three. Has seen both overall and running back target share percentage, their share of that increase each of the last three seasons. So they've had their, and this is overall and both the running back target share.
00:37:49
Speaker
Overall, percentage has grown from 9% to 12% over those last three seasons. And running back target percentage has decreased from 31% to 52%. So I've been getting a lot more catches as a running back. I've played at least 14 games every season. Nick Chubb? Not Nick Chubb. Tony Pollard? Not Tony Pollard.
00:38:17
Speaker
is finished outside of the top 30 running backs in 2022. Leonard Fornak. Not Fornak. Previous two seasons, 2020 and 2021, finished as an RB1. Najee Harris? Not Harris.
00:38:51
Speaker
But the previous two years he was a top 12 running back The last clue doesn't help too much but it helps to Hopefully cut down the pool. He's only 25 years old, too So more so I put these clues does this sound like someone you'd want on your team I
00:39:17
Speaker
Formally. Not really. RB1 only had a bad year. Ah, okay. I personally would with these facts. Their target share continues to increase. It's played pretty much a full season every year. Last year just had a down season, but the two seasons before that was an RB1 twice. Jonathan Taylor? Nope. All right. Yeah. Oh man.
00:39:44
Speaker
I'll give you a bonus. He has a new offensive coordinator this year. And if you need me to give you the name of it, I will. The enemy. You know, Antonio Gibson, Antonio Gibson, who also JD McKissick is gone, who had, I think 40 targets last year as well. And the first two years, what happened, he had double digit touchdown. So his first two seasons, but he only had five last year.
00:40:14
Speaker
So if he gets a little uptick in those touches, uh, touchdowns with more receptions and potentially a little bit more rushes, you could be an extreme value of the current year. They also, the enemy is the former OC of the Kansas city chiefs who saw McKinnon blow up with tons of receptions last year. So even though the kiss is gone, there may be a bigger pool of receptions than running back position. Yeah. Let's hope for our dynasty team that.
00:40:42
Speaker
I'm pretty high in Gibson. I'm like very tough for Gibson and Chris Connell probably knows because I've been trying to get a wide receiver and Trojan horse that Gibson back onto my team. It's not happening. And that value is gone now. I'm never going to get it. Okay. Now moving forward, this running back finished as a top 36 running back each of the last four seasons, including a running back to finish in each of the last two seasons.
Devin Singletary's 2023 Potential
00:41:11
Speaker
Running back two overall. Not like an RB2. Oh, okay, RB2, okay. RB2, so top 24 the last two seasons, top 36 the last four. Okay. Josh Jacobs. Nope. All right, I'll let you get more clues. Has a career 4.7 yards per carry and has received at least 50 targets each of the last three seasons.
00:41:48
Speaker
All right. When he receives at least 15 opportunities, rushes, and targets, he averaged 13 fantasy points per game and an average finish of the RB20. All right. James Connor? Nope. But that's a solid guess, but that is not correct.
00:42:14
Speaker
has never scored more than seven rushed touchdowns in a season and has only rushed for 16 rushing touchdowns over the last four seasons. It does not score a lot of touchdowns on the ground. And there's a reason for that. Can we switch? Nope, nope. The last clue is he is also playing for a new team in 2023.
00:42:44
Speaker
Miles Sanders. Nope. Good guess. He didn't score a lot of touchdowns. I like that. Yeah. Oh, there's a reason for it. Yeah. Because they have jail and hurts. But think about it going down. Singletary? Singletary is the answer because of Josh. I got one. All right. All right. Singletary.
00:43:03
Speaker
I think people are doubting the impact. I know Joe alluded to it earlier in the show, but I would be a little worried for Pierce because I think Singletary is going to get a lot more work than people would think. Singletary is good. He's solid. And Pierce, his value came from pure volume. He got so many touches. He wasn't like hyperly efficient all the time. So if he sees touches, Singletary could be a value and Pierce could be a little bit overrated.
00:43:29
Speaker
All right. We got a wide receiver that has never eclipsed 27% snap percentage in their career. Could be a lot of guys, but let me go through the rest of the clues. Cause it's great to run through. Hold on. Hold on. Let me also read a sleeper notification from today.
00:43:56
Speaker
I think the sky's the limit. He could be one of the best receivers of the league. Patrick Mahomes on Caderius Tony, just saying. Patrick Mahomes also said that Clyde Edwards, where could be the top running back and made them draft him. And he stinks and Holmes is not a good value of validator talent. Um, but also people have been saying that about Tony forever. He's done nothing. Um, I'm hoping.
00:44:20
Speaker
So he runs with the rest of the facts. In the 19 games played, he's only received double digit targets twice, has only finished as the top 24 wide receiver in a week on three occasions. Per reception perception, who Harmon does a great job in breaking down wide receivers,
00:44:40
Speaker
He has a, his success against man coverage is 58.3%, which is the 16th percentile. Success against zone is 73.1, which is the 17th percentile and success against the press 60%, which is the 27th percentile. That means it's not very good.
00:44:59
Speaker
He is very great after the catch and his elusive is crazy, but he's not a good, and it's also a former first round pick, but he's just not a good, he's a gadget player. Once he gets the balls in his hands, he can be good, but I have extreme doubts that he can ever be a legitimate full-time wide receiver. All right, so the last one. The wide receiver that has eclipsed the thousand yard mark each of the last four seasons.
00:45:34
Speaker
Tyrick Hill. I have some ideas. Okay, not Tyrick Hill. He has finished as a top 15 wide receiver each of the last five seasons. All right, move on.
00:45:59
Speaker
Any guess? Give another clue first. Over the past eight seasons, this wide receiver has played at least 16 games seven times and that includes 15 games back in 2016. So seven times he's played 16 games, but if you lower that to 15, he's always played at least 15 games. For eight years?
00:46:22
Speaker
for eight years, model of consistency. Devontae Adams. No, he misses games. That's what I was gonna say. No, he gets hurt a lot. He misses games, yeah. All right. Keep going. Was a top 24 wide receiver, eight of the 16 games played last season and only fell out of the top 36 four times. Again, old reliable.
00:46:56
Speaker
And this last clue is not a statistic, but it's kind of a giveaway hint. Stefan Diggs. So don't, no, so don't get, don't just tell me what division. I'd rather give this guess. It's Jim Gaffigan's favorite player. You know, Jim Gaffigan is. I do know who Jim Gaffigan is. That's one of his biggest bits of most well-known bits.
00:47:26
Speaker
Oh Tyler lock it Tyler lock it That is right, you know screaming value. Yeah when you're when you gave the first clue Which was what top 24 the last four years? Top 15 the last top 15 wide received the last five seasons, but he's clipped a thousand yards the last four years
00:47:51
Speaker
a thousand yards the last four was your first clue. And in my mind, one of the first people I thought was DK Meckath and like Chris Godwin. And then I'm like, ah, those guys played four years. I don't know. They've played four years. I'm not going to throw that, those out there yet. And then I just never even circled back to see how to lock it. Yeah. Yeah, guys. Great. And
00:48:15
Speaker
I know that people have some concern with him. I just feel like this is, I know he's about 30, but he seems like a type of player that's going to go later in his career than most wide receivers. He doesn't get hurt. He's always, always on the field. He like never gets it. Um, and I know people have talked about Doug Baldwin who was a very good wide receiver, but I don't think he's a wide receiver. Lockett is Baldwin was a non-drafted wide receiver. Lockett was the fifth pick of the third round pick number 69. Nice. Um,
00:48:45
Speaker
So, I don't know, I just, I think he's a great value. And this is kind of to what we said earlier in the show. I think Lockett, veterans like Lockett can be extreme values in Dynasty. Cause people overlook him, no one wants to hold them posted. Everyone likes DK Math, everyone loves JSN, but Lockett is I think gonna have at least two to three more years of production. So those were our games. I hope you guys enjoyed. What did you guys think of those? Yeah, they're good. They're fun. Yeah, a lot of fun. Good job pulling them together, host.
00:49:15
Speaker
It was fun doing it. Honestly, the storyline for the players kept changing a little bit. And I had a couple where I'm like, yeah, I'm going to do a different play. I didn't. I thought this was going to go a different direction than it was. But yeah. With that, we're going to move to our final segment, the mailbag. Mail time. Mail time. Mail time. Mail time. As three dads here, I'm sure we can all appreciate that. Here's the mail. It never fails. All right.
00:49:44
Speaker
We have four questions we got here. The first one submitted by Michael Schluter, who, congrats Schluter, his team, Schluter, not very creative, he's asked, who in your division do you think you'll go to and oh on?
Division Rival Bets
00:49:59
Speaker
And do you have the balls to make a bet on it? Joe, let's go to you first. Yeah, my division is brutal.
00:50:09
Speaker
I did take a look to see if there were any kind of schedule situations where I was catching guys on good or bad weeks. It's really all going to come down to Kyler's health. If I knew Kyler was going to be healthy, and maybe that's where I'll say, if Kyler's going to start week one, then I'd probably be willing to make a bet against Adam and Schluter that I could beat them both.
00:50:38
Speaker
Two times welcome not 100% sure because I would put money up against it because with his quarterback situation I'm betting on. Those guys not winning him a week out of two shots and I know that the likelihood of that happening is is not something that that I would want to wager against, but assuming Kyler's full health from week one and it actually matters week one two because I play shooter week one and I play Adam week two.
00:51:06
Speaker
I throw some shackles on, on the possibility of beating each of them twice. Yeah, they're doubling down. He's not taking one. He's taking two. He's taking the whole division down. Well, yeah. So I'm, uh, obviously in the same division with, uh, Joe Adam and Schluter who asked the question. Uh, and I went back and looked at my rankings. And so I have to say, I feel most confident taking down team Schluter who I had as number nine.
00:51:35
Speaker
And, uh, I had myself as number 10, so, you know, it should be a good showdown. And, uh, you know, I love no luck shooter loves betting. So, uh, I talked to Sean and I asked him if he was willing to place a bet and he said a hundred percent. So shooter, if you hear this shooter, uh, let us know. We will bet you a Lamar Jackson rookie card that we will go to an O on you.
00:52:05
Speaker
And if we do win both times, you have to give us that elusive DeAndre Hopkins explosive card. I know you have currently on sale at eBay. So let us know if we have a deal. Oh, wow. I love it. That is spicy. And you know, these are all family members, too. So they're going to have to sit around for holiday dinners about this. It's going to be a great Christmas. I can't wait. For me, honestly, I don't really feel confident, that confident about anyone in a roster.
00:52:34
Speaker
kind of Joe said, we play our division the first three weeks of the season, the last three weeks of the season. So that being said, I'm going to pick Scott. I know Scott has gotten picked on a little bit there, but I will say he's not going to have a fully healthy Breece Hall to start the season. So that would be an advantage for me. And then by the final three weeks of the season, he may not have a quarterback situation. So playing those cards, I feel like I should have an advantage against him.
00:53:00
Speaker
That's not something I'd want to bet on, but me and Scott do happen to do a couple of 99 apples and banana bets, and maybe we can throw that out there. What I will say is every time I hear rumblings about DeAndre Hopkins possibly going to Tennessee,
00:53:18
Speaker
My first thought is, God, maybe he actually gets, I mean, they possibly, I think it would demonstrate they're going for it. And it certainly wouldn't, it would certainly would rule out the possibility that they're tanking the season, which means Ryan Tannehill, if he stays healthy, he's going to be out there. He's going to have good targets to throw to an additional, one of the best targets in the league. So that would really change the narrative about the old disastrous Echler for Tannehill. That's why you never,
00:53:48
Speaker
Funny how things change. Yeah, it's true. You never know at McDonough City, a lot of things can change. I also have Hopkins, so I wouldn't love that position to fall. It's not the worst. You get a good amount of targets, but I'd like to get a better team. All right, moving to the next one. We got Harry. Harrison Kipple, whose team is What's Under the Towel. That's very clever. His question is, interested to know your biggest sleeper for the 2023 season, and why is it Josh Gorg?
00:54:18
Speaker
No, his real question is every year there's a surprise running back that comes out of nowhere to be an RB 1 or an RB 2 and helps teams win championships. Last year, it was Ramon Dre or Kenneth Walker. Who do we think it's going to be this year? Ryan, I'll toss it to you first. Yes, a great question. This kind of goes against the bet I just made because team Schluter has the guy I'm about to mention, but
00:54:44
Speaker
I feel like you have to look for a good situation in the middle of the rankings.
2023 Sleeper Running Backs
00:54:49
Speaker
You have to kind of look down and find someone that can pull off a full season as a lead back.
00:54:54
Speaker
I kind of mentioned it earlier, but that guy for me this year is Alexander Madison. He's around the RB 20 in redraft. And we talked about his redraft value being higher than dynasty value, but I think he has the situation and the opportunity to finish as a top 10 back and help someone win a championship this year.
00:55:18
Speaker
We've already seen him crushing a lot of games that Dev and Cook was out. The problem has always been that he never got the lead back role and Cook is gone now. And I don't think there's too much depth really behind him. So that would be my pick. Yeah. So it's funny. I kind of interpreted this one as
00:55:42
Speaker
Or I looked at it from a lens of rookie running backs that might kind of like that could be mostly because, you know, the question got me thinking. The guys that Harrison mentioned were Stevenson and Kenneth Walker, who were both young. Was Stevenson was a rookie last year or two years ago? Two years ago. Kenneth Walker rookie last year.
00:56:07
Speaker
My immediate thought was Kendra Miller. I like the situation in New Orleans there. We talked about Kamara with potential suspension looming and not the best yards per carry numbers last year. And a lot of times, right, it's about the opportunity for these guys just to kind of like get on the field and demonstrate. I don't think Jamal Williams is in every downback. I don't think that the Saints acquired him to be in every downback. So if it's a situation where Kamara's out six,
00:56:37
Speaker
eight games, something like that. And Kendra Miller has the opportunity to get on the field, even if he's only out four games and Kendra has the opportunity to get on the field, he averaged seven yards per carry throughout college. He has really, really solid elusiveness ratings, not a huge guy, but he runs aggressively downhill. And I just think that his style is going to translate. And with Kamara kind of
00:57:03
Speaker
kind of over the hill. It just feels like it's a good situation for for Kendrae Miller and an honorable mention. I'll throw out Taijae Spears because I do think that I mean Derek Henry is defying all the odds in terms of his productivity despite the amount of mileage he has on the tank and the amount of hits that he's taken and
00:57:27
Speaker
Um, if anything, if you were to miss any time, Spears is another one who a lot of the, the knock against Spears is the longevity concerns because of his knee injury history. But he also, I mean, the guy like absolutely positively tore it up throughout his entire college career has incredible explosiveness. And if he's going to be, if he's going to have a great
00:57:48
Speaker
NFL career, he's going to burn bright like a shooting star. So those are two guys that I think I would not even be a little bit surprised if by the end of the year, those are guys that are on championship teams. Yeah. And kind of accurate point. I know rookies are generally the answer in this question because every year rookies end up in the top 24 and
00:58:11
Speaker
A lot of it is like the depth chart play. So like Joe mentioned a couple of them, but I think they speak chase Brown, a chain, even rush on Johnson, all the chance. I'm not picking those guys, but those are all guys that if they ended up doing there, wouldn't it like shock me? Cause those are the type of players that usually end up there. But for non rookies, there's a couple who I think about like, I can see maybe a Kenneth gain while going in there just cause the guys ahead of them are not.
00:58:35
Speaker
picture of health. And he had like a nice playoff run. Damien Harris could end up getting a decent amount of touchdowns if it doesn't go Josh anymore. So I could see him actually sneaking up there if he gets double digit touchdowns. But a dark horse guy who I've been rising on is Jalen Warren. He was up great on the field last year. He's getting a lot of hype this year. Najee Harris still I think is the bell count. I think Najee has people are lower on him than they should be.
00:59:00
Speaker
I do think Jalen's going to get out there a lot more, and he was very productive when he got the touches, and I think he's only going to continue to get better. So I think he's someone who could potentially sneak into the top 24, top 30 running backs for the year. Appreciate you having something good to say about my team, Dave. Thank you. I know. I'm going to return the favor. Thank you. All right. Moving down to Chris Canelo, some from American Industries. Which player is going to be the biggest bust this season?
Potential Busts for 2023
00:59:30
Speaker
I'll jump in. I got two. Well, my number one, Trevor, I have two thoughts with this one. So first, first player that comes to mind is Cam Acres. I know a lot of the industry is high on Cam Acres. I, I just, I want to, to me, it's, it's a probability play that
00:59:54
Speaker
there hasn't been any running back ever who's come back and provided sustained productivity after tearing and Achilles tendon ever. I mean, Deontay Foreman is probably the best example of that. And even he's had kind of off and on productivity. I think that Acre's performance last year was a little, a hair misleading, a hair volume dependent. He scored a lot of touchdowns. The team is going to be terrible this year.
01:00:22
Speaker
They're going to give up a lot of points. They're going to be frequently playing from behind. Stafford is healthy. I think that's going to be a passing offense and I just don't think that Cam Makers is going to deliver on the promise. I'm not necessarily sure that Cam was even that great, you know, pre-injury. You know, we didn't really get to see all that much. He kind of like came out and
01:00:49
Speaker
was a strong performer in the playoffs and then got hurt in training camp the next year. So not to say that he won't have any value. And then my honorable mention for Biggest Bust, I'm going to have to say it's going to be Breeze Hall. Not to say that he's not an amazing player and that I wouldn't want him on a dynasty roster. But again, I think second round ADP for a guy who the team is, they have running back depth
01:01:17
Speaker
You know, Michael Carter's there. They drafted a running back. And they're like the, they and New England I think are like the top two, you know, odds on favorites with a little bit of Miami sprinkled in to land Dalvin Cook, right? So if Breece Hall was healthy, they would not be, or, and I say healthy with quotes, right? He might be out there, but if he was his normal self, they would not need to pay Dalvin Cook.
01:01:45
Speaker
I think it's going to be a murky situation at best. We'll see what happens with Aaron Rodgers, but I think a lot of people are going to draft Breeze Hall in the second round, and he's going to tank 13. You want to go, Dave? Yeah, sure. I'll jump in. So there's three guys who I was thinking about. I don't know if they'll be complete flops, but I think people are hiring them, and they really should be.
01:02:10
Speaker
One, Aaron Rodgers, I just don't think he's like a top-end quarterback anymore. I made a bet with someone in another league last year. He wasn't going to be a QB one and that paid off. He looks like a shell of himself. He has all the same receivers again, again, except for Garrett Wilson, who is otherworldly. So like that is an upgrade, but it's not like
01:02:32
Speaker
He complained about his wide receivers and they brought him all over to the Jets. So I just don't see him being a top half quarterback this year and I think some people for the current season think he will be. Jared Judy to me I think is getting too much hype. I think he will be better in the offense but I just don't think he's a wide receiver one. I think he's more of a back half wide receiver two. I think he's overrated as a route runner.
01:02:58
Speaker
He has had big games, but he's also had so many games where he doesn't do anything. So I don't get why there's so much hype on the player. I understand he came out of the draft a lot of it, but he hasn't really shown it on the field consistently. And there's other wide receivers, like obviously Tim Patrick is older, come back from an injury, but he's looked better from a box score standpoint for most of his career than Judy has shown on a week-to-week basis. And you're also betting that Russell Wilson
01:03:26
Speaker
is
01:03:38
Speaker
I just don't get it. I know he had a great start of last season. It wasn't as great the back half of the season. And his was a volume play with like getting a ton of rushes, which I don't think he's going to have as much now because they drafted Bigsby. His biggest asset coming out of college was his receiving skills, which they don't really utilize, which I don't understand why they don't utilize, but that's also where it's more valuable to catch a pass than it is to rush the ball itself. So unless he gets an uptick there and gets the goal line touches,
01:04:08
Speaker
Which he may not get again because big speak profiles kind of as that type of running back I just think ETN is more of like a running back to who people think could be like a top five running back Which I just don't say so those are my three guys. What about you, right? Yeah, so I like the Jerry Judy pick he was actually on my short list but I decided to kind of look at the top of the rankings and I want to say before
01:04:32
Speaker
I mentioned this guy. I'm not saying he's bad at all. And I think he'll have a great season. But for where he's being drafted, I think he will be a bust in terms of value. For me, it's Justin Fields. He was insane as a runner in 2022. I looked up the stats. He ran for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns, had a 7.1 yards per carry average as a quarterback. And in week nine, he broke the single game rushing record for a quarterback.
01:05:02
Speaker
there's just no way that that level of rushing is sustainable in 2023. And as a passer, he averaged 150 passing yards a game, and he only topped 200 yards twice last year. So yeah, yeah, you know, the bear trader for DJ Moore, I know that's what everyone keeps saying. And, you know, they should have a better offensive line. But to me, the hype that fields is guaranteed to make the same leap that Jalen Hurts made last year is too high.
01:05:31
Speaker
And again, I'm not saying he won't be good, but he's being drafted as the QB five or six and redraft ahead of guys like Lawrence and sometimes even ahead of Justin Herbert. And I just think taking him that high will be a bust in terms of value. Yeah. I mean, I don't disagree that there's a lot that has to go right for fields. Um, and he's just, even though you get a good receiver and you've seen it work for other quarterbacks, you still have to be a good passer.
01:06:05
Speaker
My take is I'd much rather have Herbert than Fields. I think I would probably rank those Herbert and then maybe Fields and Lawrence. I think I view them as a similar tier, but I think that
01:06:25
Speaker
I think the comparison to Jalen Hurts is appropriate because they had a very, Jalen Hurts' two years ago was pretty similar to Justin Fields' last year. Nobody really anticipated Jalen Hurts making the leap that he made. I mean, Dave and I traded him in a dynasty at the end of the season before last. And you just kind of,
01:06:52
Speaker
assume that these guys aren't going to ever put it together, throwing the football, and maybe Fields won't. But I think as a passing prospect coming out of college, Fields was a little more appealing to me, throwing the ball. So I have some hope that maybe he'll take a similar leap to Hertz. But I agree with you. At ADP, I would rather have some of the other guys that are going around the same area that he is.
01:07:16
Speaker
Yeah. And I think that's the issue for me is it's, he's basically being drafted as if he already made the leap that hurts made and it's guaranteed to happen. And it's not necessarily an easy leap to make and hurts last year. I remember in a redraft league, he wasn't drafted as a top 10 quarterback. So people drafting fields that high already, you know, there's some chance that it doesn't happen. And then he'll, he'll be a bust pick when he's your top back.
01:07:45
Speaker
Very little margin of error, basically. Moving to the final one, this is a fun one. Diving back into the old memory bank, we got Matt Rosinski from Dan's team, of course.
Favorite Fantasy Players
01:08:01
Speaker
Favorite all-time fantasy player from any year, right? Why don't you go first? Yeah, so I'm probably going to get some flack for this because this podcast is filled with Giants and Jets fans, but
01:08:14
Speaker
I'll never forget Randy Moss schooling defenses in 2007, uh, his first year on the Patriots. It was insane to watch. And at the time 2007, I was a freshman in college. So, you know, anything that relates to being a freshman in college obviously gets a huge increase in value considering it's the best time ever. Um, and it was actually the first year that we did the other league that Dave and I are in malls, another terrified toilet.
01:08:42
Speaker
Coincidentally named after Matt, who had a question. So yeah, Randy Moss in 2007 had nearly 1,500 yards, 23 touchdowns that year. Just ridiculous numbers. And I feel like he was always a cool player to watch. Understandable. It's a good pick. What about you, Jeff? So yeah, a couple of things come to mind. I mean, when I think about like, my mind immediately went to those like early years of playing fantasy football as well, which
01:09:10
Speaker
for me were freshman year of college. I remember the first draft that I ever took part in. I had like the number two or the number three pick. We were in the dorms and it was like, you know, three guys in my dorm suite and then the other guys across the hall. And I took Reggie Bush with like the second or third pick, which as you can imagine, Reggie Bush was nowhere near ranked in the top 10. And in my mind, I'm like, well, I got to pick this guy because he returns puns, he returns kicks, probably going to score a lot. He's real explosive. And I was the laughingstock of
01:09:40
Speaker
like the entire floor for making that pick. And so that is kind of one of the early things that comes to mind. And ironically, right, you know, you mentioned, you know, the whole Giants fan situation. I had the Tony Romo, Terrell Owens stack for two years in college. And I like legitimately remember sitting in class trying to acquire Terrell Owens via trade and actually acquiring him via trade.
01:10:09
Speaker
to complete the stack. And so that was nice to have. Again, throwing it back. Those were really the best days of fantasy football, if you ask me. Yeah, Tio was a good one. He was another fun player to watch.
01:10:23
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, some ones I know a lot of people would mention is Lidani and Tomlinson. I never owned them, so it was hard for me to own them. Sean Alexander was another fun one. The players that I did own that changed the game for me was Andre Johnson and Wes Walker. They were like PPR machines before people really picked up on the PPR aspect. And Sonya Gates, where you got that first tie-in, like, asset, where, like, the Kelsey, now you get that advantage.
01:10:47
Speaker
Antonio Brown was wild. I had Fourier and Calvin Johnson. But the one guy who I love the most because I won championships, and that's what ties my emotional bond to the most, was Jamal Charles. I love Jamal Charles. The other guys helped shape my mindset and how I strategize my game. But Jamal Charles, who was never, well, eventually became the RB1 drafted. But when I got him, he was, I think, AB RB4, so I got him in the mid-first.
01:11:14
Speaker
But from 2012 to 2014, it was just silly. In the 2013 season, in nearly 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns with 70 receptions, these guys put up stats that if they did that today, people would lose their minds. You just don't see stat lines like that anymore.
01:11:31
Speaker
So I always remember him like, and it could be going like the best part about Jamal Charles is that you would, it could be the fourth quarter, he has 20 yards, but you're like, I'm not worried. And then he rips off an 80 yard touchdown and you win your week. It was the best feeling. I never ever was concerned with him on my team. So he was probably my number one. I don't think I ever owned him once. I remember kind of like just shying away. Oh, you know, like there's always like 10 times a game where he gets,
01:12:02
Speaker
And you know, a lot of his production relies on past catching a little unreliable. It's not a huge between the tackles guy. So I was like, I'll pass on Jamal Charles. And then I ended up watching, you know, the games and red zone. And it's just a.
01:12:17
Speaker
Jamal Charles highlight reel and I'm like, why don't I ever own this guy? My favorite player every time I go because he was never like the top three pick. I'm just like, come on, give me like the fourth or fifth pick of the year. I just, all I need. Yep. Not a flashy enough name for me. Dumb. But it was fun. This was a fun episode guys. It was a, it was nice to do some games, get some throwback memories. I don't know. What were your thoughts? Yeah, it was a lot of fun.
01:12:42
Speaker
Uh, yeah, I appreciate the time that you put into kind of like pull together some, some good, uh, keep trade cut questions. I'm good. Guess the players. And, and we kept this one, uh, to a respectable hour and 15 minutes, which I think the legal appreciate as well. That's pretty good. Let's fucking go. Yeah. That was a fun podcast. It was nice to not just talk fantasy analysis and actually play some games. And I think, uh, the listeners.
01:13:10
Speaker
can play along, which will make it a fun episode for them as well. Yeah, absolutely. And honestly, I want to give a special shout out again to Harrison Kippel, DJ dirty work with the beats for the intro and outro. So thank you so much. Signing off. Peace.
01:13:43
Speaker
to another episode of the NSFW Dynasty podcast. Tune in next time!