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College Football Week 1 Preview and Mason's Fantasy Land
37 Plays1 year ago
Football is officially back! The guys break down all of the biggest games from Week 1 of the College Football season, give their favorite bets, and Mason takes us to Fantasy Land for some fantasy football talk.
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Transcript
Introduction and College Football Week One Preview
00:00:14
Speaker
What is up? Welcome to the Next Sky Up podcast. We are here and football is here. It is is also here. Football college week one is coming up this weekend and today we are previewing the biggest games of the weekend and there's actually a lot of them. Week one this year is delivered with zero according to Mason trash. But week one is coming. And so we're really excited.
Fantasy Football Advice and NFL Discussion
00:00:41
Speaker
We're going to cover some of the biggest games of the weekend coming up.
00:00:45
Speaker
Mason is taking us back to Fantasyland. He is yeah going to break down some talk. I know everyone is in the midst of finishing up their fantasy drafts probably. And so get some last minute advice. Maybe see where some players are at. So it's gonna be a fun episode today, big episode. We are super excited. We've been waiting all off season for this and it's finally here. So boys, how we feeling about football?
00:01:15
Speaker
um I'm so glad it's back. I'm so glad football is here. we're It's going to be on all weekend. I don't have a ton going on this weekend, so it's just just football wall to wall. Except for the NFL part, which will be the week after, but I didn't want to throw out. Yeah, I did want to throw out NFL ah for the fantasy land. I'm most excited about this part, which is you i usually pick like a couple of players. We have a lot in Tinsley talked about this before we got on. ah We have a lot of players going to the the pub list, which we'll talk about. They will not be playing for the first four games.
Significance of Upsets in College Football
00:01:53
Speaker
And we also have some players that got cut.
00:01:55
Speaker
Not huge names, but maybe some things uh that you'll need to keep an eye out for so big for the uh fantasy leg land segment I did want to ask you guys college football wise labor day weekend on monday Help come to our week And is this game tarnished because of the upset? Would you be more excited to see Florida State? Cause I was like, wait, what game is I'm going to be laying out, you know, enjoying, maybe do some cookout and join like a labor day. And then you see the game and it's already upset Florida State on the schedule. Listen, Mason, college football is built on the back of upsets. That's what makes college football great. No upsets in the NFL.
00:02:38
Speaker
I mean, there are technically, but no one, wait the worst team in the NFL can beat the best team. And it's like, Oh, that's a weird week. Like it's like, whatever. I mean, it's a surprising, but it's not shocking.
00:02:52
Speaker
But a big upset happened in the college football and it kind of shakes the hole the whole foundations of the system here. So you never know what's happening. You never know what teams are going to be better. you there's a lot It's a long off season, lots of lots of overturning rosters. So it makes college football fun. Upsets only make me more excited to watch more college football because that's what you live for. You live for the you live for the big upset.
00:03:19
Speaker
Listen, I'm here for the upsets and the fake a week zero, not real college football week, but I was just saying the O and one Florida state versus Boston college is not as exciting. Okay.
00:03:34
Speaker
and That's what I was trying. you I'm all here for upsets.
College Football Scheduling and Non-Conference Games
00:03:37
Speaker
I was just saying should we got somebody that hasn't already lost a game I'll be honest with you that game is not on my radar at all. So wasn't even before the upset. No night Okay, is that a night when when is that? Yeah, that's that night. Yeah That's a weird schedule for a Florida State to start with whoever made their schedules did a terrible job Terrible you go to Ireland and you come back and you play on Monday night the next week Against the Boston College team. That's solid. What a weird way to start your week. Yeah, to start your season. I would... It's in Florida State. We do have a... 6.30 on ESPN. Gotcha. We do have a Sunday night game, and it's a good one. So that's pretty exciting, actually, knowing that a lot of people don't have to work on Monday morning. You get to watch that game on Sunday night.
00:04:29
Speaker
I'm pretty excited about that one, LSU USC. So I think it's a pretty cool little little switch up to put a big game on Sunday night that first weekend before you have football and before you have NFL ah crowding out the Sunday slate. So I think that's a pretty cool thing, get people back in the in the rhythms of the weekend football watching. So. I feel like that's like LSU's second year in a row, they've gotten the big prime time slot on Sunday night, right? Really? That Florida to State game last year.
00:05:00
Speaker
LSU just scheduled some tough non-conference games there They do that. they're Yeah, they don't schedule strictly cupcakes i I appreciate that about LSU which a lot of the SEC actually asked and a lot of the Big Ten oh ah Most programs have at least one kind of tough non-conference game That they're playing I'm not sure that Ohio State does I'll see the other teams do I know Michigan plays Texas and And then yeah that's big Georgia has Clemson. We're going to talk about that in a second. um Texas A&M plays another Dame, which you can argue whether that's a tough game or not, maybe, but that's that's going to be a big matchup. um you're on This podcast is not a big matchup. It's not a hard matchup for Texas A&M. Could be. Spoiler alert.
00:05:46
Speaker
And then Florida ah Plays Miami. So some pretty big non-conference games happening here in week one, which is what makes it exciting I'm glad it's not just kind of chalk ah Garbage games down the board. Some people do Tennessee pull Chattanooga tough test We talked earlier about Ohio State's running. Who's Ohio State playing? Someone Uh, somebody, uh, Akron, I think. Okay. Temple, Oklahoma. Watch out for that game. there There are some not good games as well, but, uh, we're, we're excited to get there.
Betting Advice and Community Interaction
00:06:24
Speaker
Do we, so how are we going to kind of do this? We're going to, we're going to lay out the games. We have a couple of games that we've chosen as kind of the ones that we're going to, we're going to sit on the most. And then we are going to give some bedding.
00:06:37
Speaker
We're bringing back the next guy at Parlay. So if you were with us last year, you know what this is about, but we're each going to give a leg to a Parlay. And we're each going to give our favorite bet of the weekend. So ah if you are interested in betting, we, and we're going to talk about this a little more later probably, but we have a Discord that we have just launched. ah This Discord is totally free. You can just jump on. you can We're going to put all of our bets on there.
00:07:06
Speaker
ah We're going to have conversations about all the football happening. So we have different channels for for NFL, for college, whatever you're interested in that we talk about, it's going to be on there and available. So if you're a person like all three of us who like to have a dialogue as you watch football games, it's a really good place for that.
00:07:26
Speaker
are we have we each have multiple group chats that we're part of that tend to i become very active in the middle of football games because we're all we don't get to watch games together very much so we're all in our different places and we're just kind of What happened there? I can't believe he did that what an idiot. He's gonna ruin our parlay ah Please stop him you know this stuff like that happens often so we are excited to be there we're gonna be ah very active in the discord so if you're interested where we've been sharing it on social media go check out instagram ah because the link is right there and you can get on there and we're would be happy to have you
00:08:06
Speaker
trying to go So basically we're taking all of our group text messages for football and just inviting the listeners to be a part of the chaos. Exactly. And the craziness and the reactions in real time. Maybe some live bets. Who wouldn't want anything more? Live bets, yep. Ten cents a live bet and you hit big. It could have been you.
00:08:27
Speaker
could You could have rode with me. i have I have announced it and I have said it in group text. I think I've said it on the pod. This is going to be my biggest football season yet. I am coming for the books. I have a plan and they are not going to like my plan.
00:08:43
Speaker
So this is gonna be the only place that you can find every single bet I will be taking on Is gonna be on our discord college NFL and and we're not gonna charge you nothing We're not one of these discords is gonna charge you $60 a month for all my awesome picks. You can just have them for free Yeah, that's right be winner
00:09:04
Speaker
Um, and I'll just say it right here. I, uh, I will say that, um, I think, uh, we all have some pretty big shoes to fill from last football season. If you're with us, um, I think at one point we won nine next got parlays in a row. You guys remember that? It was crazy, man. It was awesome. It didn't happen just for the record. Uh, but we did, we did hit a couple. I think we have a new strategy for this year. So we'll talk about it. Um, we had some, we got pretty hot around football season.
00:09:33
Speaker
Um, oh, I forgot to debut that as well We have a couple things the system is coming back. Uh, if you're with us last season We'll talk about that a little bit too and we'll make sure we drop all those on socials and on the discord I'll explain that as as we get a little deeper into college talk today Good boys. So, um, mason Yeah, like last week we posted a TikTok and it was just like a tease about a fantasy player. And we got a couple of comments about why don't you say who the player was, what a tease, and like ripping us up and down. If anything was a tease, it was Zach right there just like throwing out. Yeah, we'll talk about that in a little bit. But let's, oh, and we have that as well, which we'll talk about in a little bit. Well, it just came into my brain that I needed to share
College Football Strategies: Georgia vs. Clemson
00:10:17
Speaker
it. So we'll get there. I know. It's just funny to see that for life. We'll get to bedding. We'll talk about it.
00:10:23
Speaker
And we'll talk about that a little bit it directly impacts like my my my best bet of the weekend. So oo So I'm super pumped should we let's do it. Yeah, I think we should should we should jump in um We are going to be hitting the high points of what we consider the best matchup to the weekend um So let's just jump into Michigan Clemson. Let's just do it Uh, Michigan, not Michigan, Georgia, Georgia. georgia I'm sorry. Georgia georgia Clemson. Uh, Georgia largely considered the best team in the nation. Most complete team. I think, uh, Clemson really weird team right now to to think about, uh, Dabo Sweeney obviously has avoided the, uh, transfer portal. That's, that's kind of the big talking point is Georgia has embraced it. Picked up some big pieces, including a new running back from Florida, ETN.
00:11:18
Speaker
and a lot of other pieces that they have they have plugged in just to continue to be dominant. While Dabo Sweeney has gone the other way, he rides with his guys ah to the end, for better or worse. Cade Clubnik is back after a pretty mediocre season last last year. And so these are kind of the tale of two programs. One seems to be trending up, one seems to be trending down. How do we feel about this game?
00:11:47
Speaker
this This is a tough game for me because I feel like Clemson is pretty solid defensively. They always are. They always have a good defensive line. Dabo is a very good recruiter. um Like you said, though, he has not embraced the transfer portal. He is one of four teams that did not accept a single transfer. The other three were service academies ah where you have to get a congressman to sign off for you to be able to transfer. so Uh, pretty tough. not good I don't know what to think. Yeah, it's not good. Um, Clemson lost. Will Shipley, and who was kind of like the heart and soul of their offense the last couple of years through the DJ on the Lele and Cade club, Nick kind of, uh,
00:12:28
Speaker
you know, getting his feet wet. So I don't really know what to think here. I think Georgia is like, you know, they replaced five stars with five stars. I think defensively, they're going to be great. I think this is a game where they're going to kind of be filling things out. They've got a lot of new pieces on offense. And then Carson Beck, I don't think he's going to immediately click. I think by the end of the year, he's going to be a Heisman guy, but I think he's going to start out a little bit slow.
00:12:56
Speaker
Yeah, I know. I mean, I don't enjoy saying any of this, but wow i think it's a game where I think Georgia wins, but I think it's close. I agree. I, um, I think the 13 and a half point line is really tricky because I, really wanted to bet on this game as as my best bet. And I went back and forth on it all day. Um, and I, I just can't make myself do it because I think it's going to be right around there. Um, yeah Georgia had to replace Brock Bowers and glad and McConkie, uh, offensively, which is huge chunks of their offensive production last season.
00:13:33
Speaker
Which is a pretty big question mark for me. I think they're still going to be good. I think Georgia wins this game. It's hard to tell um by what margin. I think there is a reality where Georgia comes out and just kind of smacks Clemson around. I think there is another reality where Clemson keeps it super, super close until late. um It's a tough game for me to predict. I think Clemson is pretty unpredictable at this point. And I think Georgia wins. I would be shocked if Clemson won.
00:14:02
Speaker
I was telling them earlier, I think if Clemson won, this may go down as one of like the bigger upsets, week one upsets in in the last 20 years of college football. Obviously, you've got the Michigan Appalachian State, which is just, yeah that's my favorite one. But I think this, which seems crazy with with Clemson being up there as one of the powerhouses in the last 15, 20 years in college football,
00:14:27
Speaker
But the gap is is growing all the time. And I think Georgia looks a little bit indestructible right now. I would be shocked if Clemson wins this game. It would really it would be fun at this season off, though, it would really truly. Stick a stick of dynamite into the middle of college football and say, let's get this party started like I mean, it would be chaos. I mean, I'm rooting for it, but I do think Georgia pulls it out in the end. Um, but I honestly, I like Clemson plus the third, I would wait. I would try to see if you could get that number to the 14, 14 and a half is where I would rather take it. Uh, 13 and 13 and a half's not great because Georgia could easily win by two touchdowns. And then you're just like, well, ah I died by half a point.
00:15:23
Speaker
Yeah, that'd be bummer Okay moving
In-Depth Game Analysis: Penn State, Florida, and More
00:15:26
Speaker
on. Let's let's let's crank fear a couple more of these Tens this is a game tens is passionate about in the early slot as well Penn State West Virginia ah Just for the record Penn State Ranked number eight in the preseason eight people Mmm, that's but why I'm a wild Penn State Notre Dame and Florida State is like seven eight and ten eight I don't know, we we don't have to talk about that again. But 10, some of your thoughts on this game, Penn State, West Virginia, you've done a lot more research than I have here, so.
00:16:01
Speaker
Yeah, I'm slowly falling in love with this West Virginia football team. ah The quarterback, his last name is Harold, um has been lighting it up. He had a good end of the year last year. this is This West Virginia team was a team that had low expectations going into the year last year. ah Their head coach was seem like seemingly on the hot seat, ah fired the boys up, coached them up all throughout the year.
00:16:28
Speaker
Saved his job. It seems like he's going to stick around had a good recruiting class and now there's some Expectations with this quarterback that hey, they can make a little bit of noise kind of be like ah I'm kind of comparing them to like Kentucky and the SEC where they're not going to They're not gonna go into feet or do anything crazy, but that I think they're out to just ruin somebody's season and um and And go to a bowl game and and kind of just be one of those teams and then Penn State's just one of those teams to that I think I feel about them how Zach feels about another day that until Penn State can prove it to me that they're not just Mediocre that I'm never gonna believe in them Especially with Drew Allard at quarterback. He is he is terrible Yeah, hmm
00:17:18
Speaker
every I think this happens every year with Penn State. and I do have some some biases that have been set in over over a long period of time, but I think Penn State is just the one where they never deliver. and the likes In the last 10 years, they've never had a season where they're like, oh wow, Penn State is looking really good. ah Partly because they just go and they lose to There there are a couple of big games that they have. i I saw a stat about penn state playing in Games against top 10 ranked opponents And their win total was just insanity like it was They were like three and 22 or something in the last so many years and not that I think that west Virginia is like a top 10 opponent right now
00:18:06
Speaker
But I just think that if people just look at the rating and they're like, oh, number eight, I think Penn State's going to win this one easily, I think you're probably not correct there. All that to say. So, tens, I'm with you on West Virginia. That would be hilarious.
00:18:24
Speaker
I did take it as far as the system play. I did take, I took the plus eight and then sprinkled money line for West Virginia. Okay. Maybe we should go ahead and describe the system then. Cause I think we're going to talk about it a few times here. So the system last year, what we established and and honestly what, what Vegas kind of started compensating for because this became a storyline across all of the college football last year. We started it pretty early though. I think we were on the cutting edge of it.
00:18:52
Speaker
Um, there was ex exactly created this and someone stole it. It could be true. Uh, cause this came up in multiple, uh, talking heads started bringing this up as, as the year went on because it became more and more prevalent. Uh, but we started a system where, um, underdogs that are playing at home against top 25 opponents, uh, kind of one at a pretty unprecedented rate last year.
00:19:20
Speaker
There was a lot of huge home upsets where you had a a big ranked team coming to town that has a tendency to rile the crowd up even more. you know you got like West Virginia has Penn State coming in. Penn State's coming in with a lot of precedent expectations. West Virginia wants to shock of the world.
00:19:39
Speaker
their stadium is going to be jacked up. And it provides a boost to get them over the edge. And there was a lot of situations last year where teams that were pretty significant underdogs covered the spread, but not only did that, but win and won the whole game. So we started a system last year where we put um about a unit on every spread of those type of underdog plays.
00:20:03
Speaker
and then about a half of a unit on the money line. Because if it hit, it turned into a pretty big payday for us. so I will say I started off with a pretty small amount of money last year and I played this system the whole season and we won a lot more than we lost. so We're going to do it again this year. In this game, it fits the system.
00:20:26
Speaker
At West Virginia. We should just start fun. Yeah. What do you say, Mason? We should just parlay them together. All of them. We're going to start the Discord calling out all the system plays. So if you want to tell it, you can. There is at least one more on our on our schedule. We're going to talk about some radar. Yeah. There's a couple of them this weekend. OK.
00:20:53
Speaker
Next up, let's do it. ah Let's just go ahead and roll roll into the system play. We have Florida Miami. Miami is playing at the Florida Gators and the swamp. ah This one's this was tricky for me. I have been on the record saying I think Florida is going to win three football games and they play three ah basically like FCS teams. And so this is a tricky one.
00:21:18
Speaker
um
00:21:21
Speaker
The line is two and a half ah in Miami's favor. Miami's minus two and a half here. ah They are a ranked team at number 19 playing at Florida in the swamp. I think there's a lot of factors at play here. um Florida is a team that I truly believe is not very good at football. Billy Napier is a coach who I think will get fired this season still. Graham Mertz, I think is not very good ah and not a great quarterback.
00:21:50
Speaker
um Here's what I do know, and here's the factors that I'm putting into play. The swamp is a very tough place to play, especially at the beginning of the season. therere ah No matter what the narratives have been,
00:22:06
Speaker
everyone is zero and zero unless you're florida state in your own one but everyone starts off week one as zero and zero and fans know this and fans say The most delusional fans in the world are going to be like, I mean we have a shot to make the playoffs Even if their schedule is what it is Um, they're gonna pack out the stadium for this game. It's a rivalry game. They're gonna be jacked up they're going to create a very intense environment. And if you think the team hasn't heard the narratives that we've been spreading on this pod and the other talking heads have of this team does not have a chance of getting out of this season alive, Billy Napier is going to get fired ah by week six or whatever. Um, they're going to, they're going to lose their low spreaders or the over under wind totals is four and a half. I mean, teams,
00:22:56
Speaker
like florida see that and you they're gonna that's like ultimate bulletin board material here where miami is coming into town at number 19 so more than i'm not going to break down x's and o's and player your matchups and blah blah blah because at the end of the day i think these are two teams who are both going to be making some stakes i think the miami's quarterback's name is cam wood Tins, can you confirm, how do you know that? Cameron Ward, sorry. He had a um pretty up and down season. um I think there will be a lot of rust to knock off of both teams. I expect a sloppy game with ah with a decent bit of turnovers. I think the home field advantage and the system play is going to push Florida over the edge. And I think they take a big win here. I guess Miami shocked the world.
00:23:48
Speaker
It won't be a shock to the world. I mean, the line's two and a half. It's. I thought it was going to be further than that, but also, Zach, some of your worst football memories ever was in the swamp. So you're pretty. Very accurate. And so this is a system play. I will say this is just to go ahead and get us out of the way. This is going to be our best bet of the of the week. Or do I want to save this?
00:24:14
Speaker
We already just put it out. So a best bet of the week. um It's actually a parlay. So it's it comes out to about plus 300. I'm taking Florida plus two and a half parlayed with under 54 points.
00:24:30
Speaker
I think it's a sloppy game. I think it's going to be a jillion degrees and just disgustingly hot. I think teams are going to run out of juice. I think it just turns into a sloppy game and Florida is going to have just to the edge because of the home field advantage.
00:24:48
Speaker
Well, that's good because I don't think anybody has a win total for um For Miami at all. Oh, wait. I yeah. go Yeah. Okay. I have Miami's win total. That's why I'm a little quiet about all of it. i I definitely agree with what Zach's saying. It does make sense. This is a perfect spot. Everyone's probably on Miami. Everyone all summers talked about how Florida has the hardest schedule in college football history. I do. I mean, it's it's legitimately one of the hardest schedules I've ever seen.
00:25:19
Speaker
So it is all setting up. Every narrative says Florida loses this game. So that's why they probably don't. It is. ah It's the home opener. Uh, it's against a rival. The swamp is still an X factor with their fans. Like it's early enough in the season. Zach text earlier and said, their spirits aren't broken yet. Like they're going to be hyped about the season still until week six. Right. Tennessee. but I don't.
00:25:48
Speaker
I'm not one to bet against the system so i'm not going to do that um this is one of those things I said it earlier because yes i'm on miami's win total but'm more about miami winning the acc so it's more ah honestly i got a got a free pass because Florida State went and lost an ACC game against Georgia Tech. So I'm really not sweating this game too much. It'd be great. Miami comes out and dominates and looks like the world beaters that I think they could be with finally having a quarterback on the team. But I'm not going to hit the panic button if they lose essentially a trap game in Florida. Like this isn't a game. They should probably win. I don't know who scheduled that game either for Miami. That's tough.
00:26:33
Speaker
Yeah, that's a thing for both teams, actually. 10s, what is Miami Land Total? Um, nine and a half. Or maybe it was eight and a half. Okay. or state I don't remember. I'd have to go find it. It's buried under a lot of features. Shocking to no one. But I am on them. I am on them to win the ACC at like plus 450.
00:27:02
Speaker
Alright, that's pretty good odds. If Clemson loses this first game as well, then they could they could just all lose the first game of the season. Like being in the first place on ICZ. Uh, okay. So moving lot we've got two games left. That'd be very funny. Um, let's do this one next. We have a Notre Dame, Texas, A and&M Notre Dame, Texas, A&M Notre Dame is traveling to A and&M and what will be a very hostile home environment at Kyle field.
00:27:37
Speaker
Obviously, we have a new head coach at um A and&M that we debuted in Mike Elko. We talked about him earlier in our SEC preview, but there is a significant amount of turnover at A and&M's roster to the tune of 30-something transfers that came in.
00:27:58
Speaker
ah The question marks in this game that we're gonna be watching for A&M's quarterback situation is Wegman going to be healthy and going to play a a solid game um Notre Dame um they have ah This is at least the I'm gonna get that wrong they have a coach who's been there and Tenzin, how long he's been there at Notre Dame now? What season it is? I think this is season... it's it's It's not as many as you think. I think it's just his second year. Okay. He was on staff as the defensive coordinator with Chip Kelly. Okay. Because this is just Kelly's second year LSU, right? Or is it his third year? It's his.
00:28:46
Speaker
I think we're I think we're entering year three. That sounds right. Well, this is good looking here. This is a good podcast. This is great podcasting. So this is entering yeah Marcus Freeman. Regardless, he he's not a first year head coach anymore. This is his team. I think it's at least his fourth year, maybe. And we have a couple of different. I mean, that's a that's a very different teams come into the table here. um I have been very vocal about my Notre Dame.
00:29:17
Speaker
dislike especially ah have I have a bet on my features of them to miss the playoffs so which actually is plus money with a 12 team playoff they started off their season ranked number seven A and&M is down there at like number 20 I think either of them could be really good to make the playoffs this year if if the schedule goes a certain way I'm gonna be a really fun matchup I think I think it could be pretty tight I've got A and&M winning, though. um I think, again, that the home environment is going to be too much to overcome, but I tend to tell you about this game.
00:29:57
Speaker
Yeah, I, I thought this game was, um, on a neutral site up until today, somebody asked me where they were playing. And I was like, I don't know. I think it's like Vegas or something. Let me check. And then I saw it's a guy fit, Kyle field. Um, so that on top of the fact that it's interesting. So you've got a and M's new head coach, uh, is playing against his former quarterback at Duke. Uh, cause that is a rally Leonard is the.
00:30:26
Speaker
um quarterback for Notre Dame. So I don't know that that's that's interesting. I find that funny. It's like a fun fact. But um yeah, no, I'm definitely with you. I like Texas A&M. Not a believer in Notre Dame whatsoever. The game that is made is LSU USC.
00:30:48
Speaker
Marcus Freeman, uh, head coach from 2021 to present. I think 2021, he was like defensive coach. Did he take over like halfway through or part part three? Cause it says 2021 defensive coordinator and then 2021. Present, uh, head coach. So he was hired. So when chip chip, Kelly left Notre Dame and didn't catch the pole game. So that's when Marcus took over.
Heisman Candidates and Game Highlights
00:31:15
Speaker
There you go. Okay. Why was that so hard to find for all of us? We will never know Well, I didn't look I was just trying to go off the dome didn't work Riley Leonard long-term coat plus 2200 to end husband Those odds couldn't be long enough for me Actually first, I mean we will see and these just top like five games that we're highlighting, we're going to see, I think at least six of the top, like 12 highest odds twin Heisman. We're going to see Carson Beck at Georgia. We're going to see King Ward, Miami, um, Riley Leonard, Connor Wegman. Those are all, all guys on the top, like 12 names. So, uh, pretty exciting all playing in pretty big games at this week one. So we will see what happens.
00:32:10
Speaker
Not playing in a big game dylan gabriel playing idaho if you're curious organ time to run up them stats though Time to get them heisman stats going Uh, remember I whispered about it and it was plus 1000 and now it's like plus 500 on fandle mid sure. Who is it? Uh, dylan gabriel remember what this was right now Yeah, I whispered it but it was just my secret future when I gave the miami future that whole episode could be fire It might be when I do a callback back in about four months Looking back. Look at how much money I made everyone. Very awesome That's why you gotta get on the discord, baby true True facts last game ah that we're gonna break down here is lsu usc. This is happening on sunday night
00:32:59
Speaker
a a pretty fun matchup of two very, very teams who were on a similar path last year. Both had a Heisman contender at quarterback that was kind of put the team on your back mentality and Jane Daniels and Caleb Williams, both who are now in the NFL. Yeah, and they're both looking like the most promising of the rookie quarterbacks with starting positions in the NFL now. So they obviously lost both of those guys and are kind of starting over at quarterback.
00:33:30
Speaker
ah But similar styles, both famously, both their defenses were also horrible last year. um and And so they're coming together to to play. I think it's gonna be a very entertaining game on saturday night Sunday night. Tins, how do you feel about this matchup?
00:33:48
Speaker
i'm so I think I know what to expect out of the USC because I feel like Lincoln Riley does the same thing every year. He's going to load up on skill guys. He's got a quarterback always waiting. It feels like he's just ever since you go back to like Baker and Lincoln and Riley has just produced a quarterback out of thin air. so He threw like six touchdowns in the bowl game, didn't he?
00:34:12
Speaker
Yeah, I was so I remember is my best bet that weekend where I was like all over just fading USC. I was like this kid. There's no chance. Everyone's gone. USC is going to get wrecked. I don't remember. They I don't remember who they played. But yeah, and Moss made me eat those words with six touched. I like turned. I was like, I'm not going to fight for this. This is over. He's dead.
00:34:37
Speaker
um So yeah, but LSU is tricky to me because I don't know what to expect out of their quarterback position I feel like they kind of lucked into Jayden Daniels where he was a transfer that not a lot of teams were after because he kind of had like a messy breakup with Arizona State. um And then he turned out to be a really good player for them. So I don't know. LSU is one of those weird teams when you were doing your SEC breakdowns and I was trying to kind of figure out how where I stood with them where they've lost a lot in this past draft. I'm not a big Chip Kelly guy. I don't believe in like his recruiting classes so far LSU haven't blown me away.
00:35:18
Speaker
um and i And USC, I'm kind of coming around on where I think if they could just be above mediocre at defense, they could be a very good team because their skill guys on offense are great.
00:35:35
Speaker
Yeah, I think the argument in the other direction is, LSU just hired, we talked about it in the breakdown, um a defensive coordinator. It seems like they were taking an aggressive path towards getting better on defense. And and Blake Baker, who came from Missouri, he they made him the highest paid coordinator in the country. It really felt like we have to do something different. We can't just rely on our offense just to to outscore opponents. We need to actually get better at defense.
00:36:05
Speaker
it It looks like they're pursuing that whether that'll happen in year one Kind of of this overhaul. I don't know Uh, that's gonna be interesting I felt lake and riley. I think they've also taken some steps to get better on defense. I'm just not sure that that's gonna get there I don't know You do hear a lot of different things about Garrett Nussmeyer at LSU, and that new quarterback there that's jumping in. I think he's kind of a high ceiling, low floor kind of guy, where he could see a transfer be really good. or
00:36:38
Speaker
um That's a great question like a recruit. I just I don't know like I just don't know and and I'm not is into recruiting and there's so much change in college football even before The transfer portal where I've never been a guy who keeps up that hard with the recruiting um but this just isn't like I don't know normally LSU quarterbacks have a lot of hype coming into the season and There's like, they've turned into wide receiver at you. If you think about it, all of the NFL wide receivers right now, there's so many of them that come from LSU. And I couldn't tell you who's that next guy. Like I could tell you the last four, three or four years, like, yeah, these, three this guy's going to be the next LSU receiver and then this guy and so on and so forth. I don't know who that guy is now.
00:37:26
Speaker
Nest Myers a redshirt junior and his fourth year at LSU now, so he's been there the whole time So he's been around laying and wait. He was there with i've heard that the staff really likes him. So they're they're pretty high on him He's a guy who could come out and have a really good season I don't know. He's kind of an unknown I think because he hasn't seen the field so yeah Okay, with the quarterback talent I think that's going to be a fun game because they're two big time programs. They're going to have athletes. It's going to be a fun game. I think it'll just come down to the quarterback play is who's going to end up winning the game. But I think it's going to be a very entertaining game. Should be a nice cherry on top. Yeah. Yeah. Neutral site. Yeah. That'll be fun.
Weekend Game Previews and Betting Strategies
00:38:06
Speaker
Okay, well, those are those are what we consider our five biggest games of the weekend ah Let's go ahead and and go through our best bets and we'll and we'll give our next guy up ah Parlay as well and then we will let Mason take us to fantasy land have funny um Okay, to get my best bet it's on the foot on Florida so Florida minus or Florida plus two and a half and the under 54 Come touch about plus 300 nice little parlay Yeah, nice little same game parlay there for Zach Tensely you want to do yours because I got a little spiel with mine. Okay, sweet. Okay, beautiful um I'm going back to the one of the first games we've previewed and I'm going to be taking West Virginia plus eight um System play
00:38:55
Speaker
I'm not going to go against the system. Zach built a beautiful system and i and I do like this West Virginia team. I'm a big believer that Penn State is not as good as they ever are ranked. And so let's put it to the test week one. So West Virginia plus eight for me. Love it.
00:39:14
Speaker
Love it. Okay, so there is system plays there's trends. I wanted to dive into some week one trends I know like History ah you want to look at the past but also it's just something that we want to keep in mind But it's not like completely accurate But I found some things for this week that have been like a trending betting trend so for week one Huge favorites 37.5 points or more have been automatic and opening weeks of college football since 2013. Going 14-0 straight up and against the spread. That would be for two games Oklahoma minus 42 against Temple and Ohio State minus 48.5 versus Akron.
00:40:06
Speaker
Some other things here, it kind of pushes you towards the low totaled games in week one, especially with bigger favorites and games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of four more points.
00:40:22
Speaker
Does that did any of that make sense under the total 34 and 12 that's 73% So some of those would be FAU versus Michigan State you con versus Maryland Nevada versus Troy non-conference games ah opponents involving home underdogs ah They've been an explosive particularly when not expected or when it's expected to be in fact since 2013 when totals on these games involving home dogs are 64 or less, the results have been 22 overs and seven unders. So it was like a system play. The over was more, did that make sense? Underdogs at home. So we were going back, there's several others, but we were going back to some of the plays and I'm going to go with a big favorite and that is going to be Oklahoma minus 42.
00:41:23
Speaker
I think it makes Zach nervous. It's on Friday, by the way, everybody, not Saturday. So today. Any game that gets up that high, you have to start putting into consideration like how quickly you're pulling starters. How I get it. At what point in the game do you start putting your second and third string into avoid injuries? I think that they will be doing that at some point. And the question is 14 and 0 Zach against the spread. I hear you.
00:41:53
Speaker
Okay, just telling you. That's why it makes me nervous. a high It's a high total. I get it. but ah truck I trust you. I ride. We trust you. We got to ride. Best bet, because it's also going to lead us so right into The next guy, Parlay. Right. The next guy, Parlay. That's right. OK. We are also 0-0 on the season, so it's a fresh start for the next guy, Parlay. um i'm start I'll kick us off here. I think you're going to find that we all have chosen some what we consider a little bit of safer plays for the they hope that we can parlay things together, still get some pretty good juice on it, and
00:42:38
Speaker
when everyone's some money. So my parlay is going to be Texas A and&M money line against Notre Dame. It's it's a like plus 160 something. Nope. Nope. Minus 160. Sorry. There you go. We're getting our pluses and minuses mixed up. It's fine. Yeah, we're out of practice a little bit. Yeah. Week one.
00:43:07
Speaker
All right, I moved this line up just a little bit. um We talked about it earlier, Georgia and Clemson. I do feel like this is two very good defenses. I think george Georgia is going to be feeling some stuff out, but I feel like their defense is going to do enough to keep the point total down. So I moved it up to under 50 and a half. I feel like this game has 1710 energy written all over it, but let's let's get it up to 50 and a half just in case we get a little bit more points than I expect.
00:43:36
Speaker
original number was 48 and a half, so ah two point little cushion. We already ran the odds on this, correct? Yeah, I've got them.
00:43:49
Speaker
All right. So when you plug it all in, Oh, Mason's leg is Oklahoma minus 42. Um, his best bet is also his next guy. Yes. Parlay. Uh, so, you know, he's, he's looking to not have two or zero and two next to his name, um, in the discord. Uh, so yeah. So, uh, ride with us with this parlay is going to be plus four 37 nice little way to start out week one.
00:44:18
Speaker
quadruple your money. Thank you. On this bet. Get a nice bankroll rolling for the beginning of the season. I love it. Okay. Is it time?
Fantasy Football Insights and Player Analysis
00:44:32
Speaker
It's time. Mason's Fantasy Land. It's time to fly this plane right to the Fantasy Land.
00:44:39
Speaker
Okay, so I teased it at the very beginning I'm gonna talk about that a couple player Not one but two players and then we'll just talk I didn't have anybody that I really wanted to hate on ah This week, so we'll just talk about some news Tinsley will chat it up with me on some injuries a Lot of players starting out out for the first four weeks with the pup list and then we can talk about some cuts I don't know if Tinsley cares about that that much sure some no names but if you're in sleeper it is pay attention because all of a sudden you got somebody that ah you were hoping would be a top like a Young guy that maybe would make a team and then all of a sudden they have a zero by their name and you're like, oh they got cut so real quick the two players are
00:45:23
Speaker
Believe it or not, and I have a reason for this and I have some stats. So don't you worry. They're actually both for the Washington commanders. One is more like a target in yeah ESPN and then the other one's more like target in sleeper deep leagues. Like, hey, this is just somebody that don't go picking them up if you're in a 10 person league. The first one is an obvious.
00:45:48
Speaker
Terry McLaren He's been a safe fantasy bet topping a thousand yards and each of the last four seasons They just got rid of Johan Dotson traded him for some reason to the Eagles And so we were looking at some opening targets. Well, hmm Let's see. Who did they add and kind of place for Johan Dotson and that would be Noah Brown and if you know who that player is i actually had him on my sleeper last year just as a late flyer and picked him up and he actually performed pretty well i have the some of the stats here was not really expected with like a full wide receiver group you had tank dell there you had um ah nico colins um but with
00:46:37
Speaker
Stefan Diggs coming in. I think they were basically like, well, it's time to let him go. But give me one second. while did you have You were we were not in your head. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah. I mean, why would you want to keep a cheap fourth wide receiver option? I mean, injuries never happen. We turn right before the season starts. We turn injuries off. Don't we Texans? Sure. Nothing bad will happen. Nothing. No injuries. No pulled hamstrings.
00:47:03
Speaker
No, so waiting for no, nothing. What a dumb decision to cut Noah Brown after he had 500 plus yards and a couple of touchdowns for you last year when ah when people got, when Tyndall got hurt. Just idiots. Noah brown it no Brown actually was a wide receiver three and he had 153 yards, a wide receiver six and a wide receiver nine.
00:47:30
Speaker
He was a little inconsistent. He had somewhere he was like wide receiver 55 wide receiver 61. He had an injury in there, ah but he had three games where he literally one of them, he had 153 yards, 172 and 82 yards.
00:47:47
Speaker
Now, he only had two touchdowns. And Terry McClellan only had like three or four touchdowns. I had the list, but I wanted to get to something more important, which is we talked about Jane Daniels on the show before. Some people are like a little more about him. Last year, who had the second most passing touchdowns in college football last year? Jane Daniels with 40, Bonex with 45.
00:48:15
Speaker
Who had the fifth most passing yards of all the college quarterbacks? Jane Daniels. Who had the most passing yards per attempt last year? Most out of anybody. So the long ball was definitely in play. Jaden Daniels. Who was tied for set ah sorry fifth for most 300 yard games last season? Jaden Daniels. So I'm really expecting and I know people are like, wow, it's college football. I'll chill out a little bit. But if anybody
00:48:51
Speaker
If I have some type of hope for this commander's team and for these two wide receivers, Noah Brown was able to show it in spurts. And now is what the commanders and then Tara McCluren, which has been a consistent thousand yard receiver the past four seasons. We just need to get those touchdowns up. And Jayden Daniels was able to show that in college. Uh, I feel pretty confident about it. So how do we feel?
00:49:16
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, Terry McClellan wasn't a top 100 player, according to the NFL list, but a thousand yards. No, ah I like this. I like I like Noah Brown as far as going and getting him now off of waivers, kind of a stash guy. I think he can be solid um depth if you've got a really deep team or like you start a lot of receivers, reflexes like he's he's worth taking a flyer on. ah This offense is going to want to pass the ball deep with Oh, what is his name? Cliff Kingsbury. Um, and Jane Daniels does, does like to throw the ball down the field. Um, now granted, he doesn't have Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. to throw to like he did in college, but, uh, scary. Terry McClellan is a top tier guy. And I feel like Noah Brown is going to fill in and kind of probably immediately take over like the wide receiver wide receiver two spot.
00:50:09
Speaker
Um, cause I don't think they've been super impressed with the like Luke McCaffrey and some of the other younger guys on the team.
00:50:20
Speaker
For sure. Okay, so we're going to go over some ah people that made the publicist for anybody that doesn't know this automatically rolls you out for the first four games. ah Some of these are injuries out for the whole year if you missed him. Elijah mit Mitchell out for the whole year on a um on a very productive 49ers team. That gives Jordan Mason the RB2. So once again, late round targets for streamers if you're interested in that. Jonathan Brooks, rookie for the Carolina Panthers, will start on the pup list. um Basically out for the first four weeks, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders will probably be some light fliers. So kind of keep that in mind.
00:51:07
Speaker
I love Brooks. i feel So everything is saying that the this was a little bit precautionary. He would have probably been ready to roll by week two, but this way they can ease him into it. um Their projected goal is by week six, he's going to be full go. The number one back. I love this kid. I think he's going to be awesome. I have tried to get him in every dynasty league.
00:51:30
Speaker
um I drafted in this year in our redraft and stuck him on my IR spot and hoping he can come in and and play for me immediately. I'm also very happy with the Panthers just in general. Write all this down. Okay, a couple out of the year, like I was out for the whole season. I may have just missed some of this, but Ke'Andre Miller on IR for the Saints,
00:51:57
Speaker
Yeah, they're kind of just done with him if you have string injury. Yeah Yeah, their coach has made a lot of comments about his health and how he can never stay on the field I was also a little worried if you listen last season or last episode. I was a little worried about ah Josh Jacobs because AJ Dylan he is out for the year which kind of gives the green light for Marshawn Lloyd um ah Rookie running back but March on Lloyd stinks. Okay, not a fan also um The Chiefs had a bunch of moves that cut ah ah quite a bit of people they cut and I'm sorry. I'm gonna butcher some of these um Isaiah Spiller deer deer inches Pierce and Lewis Reese zamit, which was one of the
00:52:48
Speaker
He was like a rugy rugby player. ah So Carson Steele like took the preseason by storm. So a possible gadget running ah backup running back or is it just a he's not going to play very often? No, they they have hyped up how much Pacheco is going to be the three down back. He's worked with the receiver coach all offseason working on running routes and catching. So I mean, he'll come in and and spell Pacheco and let him get some rest. But Pacheco is also one of those guys who's just like, no, I want the ball. I want to run into people's faces.
00:53:28
Speaker
run in their face. And the last one here, unless you had anyone to throw out, Dante Foreman, a Titan, used to be, got cut surprisingly. ah Pierre Strong is now looking like the the backup. You also have ah Ford there. We don't know about Nick Chubb. He's starting out on the puff list as well.
00:53:51
Speaker
So you got him out for four. So you have, uh, Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, Nick Chubb is on this list. And then Nike Heinz forgot about that guy, but Dante Foreman cut. Yeah. I mean, the pure strong's second, second or third year players makes sense. Go, you go with the use, um, at running back. That's what then it's all does. Um, but yeah, other than that, there weren't a ton, you, you pretty much nailed all of the kind of bigger.
00:54:19
Speaker
Maybe like a little bit of fantasy implications as far as the cut day went Nothing real crazy happened. I don't I don't think there was a couple a couple trades But still I mean Johan Dawson was probably the biggest one of that Fancy wise. Yeah, wise. Yeah Um, but yeah, I know the PUP list. There was, there were some big names we talked about. Um, Nick Chubb is on there, but they're really expecting him to really not make it back until week seven or eight from his ACL injury. Um, yeah. TJ Hockinson is more, he's looking like 10 to 12 week, 10 or 12, which you have to kind of wonder. Yeah. And you kind of have to wonder at that point, if the Vikings have been eliminated, do they bring back?
00:55:07
Speaker
TJ Hawke sent him and put him out there for a lost season, considering how much he's paid and how, how valuable he is to their team.
Season Two Launch and Final Remarks
00:55:16
Speaker
If they're looking at more of like a, Hey, let's just pack it up and go to next year. Yeah. Okay. So we'll find out super bowl winning Vikings there, right? Zach? Correct. I'm all in. Oh, sorry. And, and that concludes Mason's fancy land.
00:55:36
Speaker
Oh, I was going to talk about Odell Beckham being on the PEP list. Oh, does anybody care? Oh, who said that? I mean, I care. The Dolphins have a lot of guys on the PEP list going to miss the first four games. It's kind of crazy. but yeah They feel like a team you want to play in those first four games. Bradley Chubb's going to be out. ah Jordan Phillips. Let me guess, the Jags play the Dolphins.
00:56:04
Speaker
Oh, I don't know. I'd have to look weird. um It's weird. I'd have to look. I would definitely have to look. Tyreek Hill has a wrist injury. Hasn't been catching balls of practice. All interesting things.
00:56:18
Speaker
OK, you heard it here first. All interesting. And now that concludes Mason's fancy lane. Thank you. Thank you. OK, I think that's going to wrap up our episode today. how We have we've covered our first official football episode of the season. So we are very excited.
00:56:38
Speaker
um We will be back on Monday for the Drum Roll Please, our first official episode of season two. So we're launching season two. We're doing some things differently. They've kind of started off with this episode, but we're going to be covering things just a little bit different. We're going to go all in on a football season. And so if you are used to our Messer on Monday, we can preview format. We're going to look a little differently. We are going to kind of integrate both types of episodes into each one, but we're going to be doing full.
00:57:08
Speaker
previews on our end of week episodes and we're in full ah reviews on our Monday episode talking about what just happened over the weekend. So I think it's gonna be really fun to follow over the the course of the football season. So that's gonna be on our Monday episode. We will talk about all these games and how everything shook out on your Labor Day.
00:57:29
Speaker
um Coming up, the Discord is also going to be live, or just mention that one more time. Join it on our Instagram. There's links there. ah be Get with us there. If you need it, if you can send us a text or whatever, ah get in touch with us. We will make sure you get on the Discord.
00:57:47
Speaker
um We are also on socials. Check out our Instagram, our TikTok have been popping off. We've been putting a lot of content on there. um We've been diligent about getting some, we're going to be putting a lot of betting stuff on there as well. So, be with us on TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
00:58:02
Speaker
All of the above, we are all in on this football season, so follow us all along the way. Subscribe to on Spotify. Subscribe on YouTube. Do all the things. we We appreciate all of you, and we are excited to jump into a new football season with you. So with that, we hope you have a great first weekend of football, and we will see you back here on Monday.