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EPISODE 6: BOLD PREDICTIONS!
49 Plays1 year ago
We give a quick update to our league power rankings, give out some bold predictions, and finish with some quick fantasy MVP picks
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Transcript
Introduction & Host Updates
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome to the nonstop fantasy weekly dynasty podcast. We are here with your hosts, Dave Reed, Ray Wilkinson, and Joey Gallop.
00:00:24
Speaker
Welcome into the NSFW Dynasty podcast. Unfortunately, our co-host, Joey Gallo, could not be with us tonight. It's some parenting items that had to pop up today. We're both dads here, so we understand our kids have their own schedules that we have to
Season Excitement & Power Rankings
00:00:44
Speaker
abide by. But I'm here, Dave Reed still, and joined by my co-host, Ryan Wilkinson.
00:00:49
Speaker
Yeah, good to be here two days away from the start of the season. We've been podcasting for months, so it's nice to finally get to the actual season, have some real content to talk about, and Joe, we miss you. We'll have you on the next podcast, hopefully, but like Dave said, can't control kids, so we understand. And fortunately, Joe was actually able to record some content that we'll be including into this pod as well. So even though he's not
00:01:17
Speaker
physically or digitally here with us, we will still feel like he's part of the pod. But yeah, finally, we're going to get some real content, no longer making things up to keep you guys engaged. So we're very excited about that. But if you've been listening to all the episodes, as I know you have been because you are loyal listeners and you don't have a choice since you're in the league, we did our own power rankings of the league to start the season. But now that there's been real football played or preseason football played a lot
00:01:47
Speaker
has changed in our views of these, uh, the players and all the teams in our league. So we figured it'd be time for a power ranking update. So with that, Ryan, why don't you, uh, you give us a quick update of what your power rank is looking like and any big movers. Yeah. So I took a look at my rankings and honestly, I was pretty happy with them. I like where they're at. I kind of want to see how it plays out. So I only really moved one team and that is team Schluter.
00:02:14
Speaker
I originally had him at number nine, but I moved him up to number four to start the season. Looking at his team more, I got to admit, I think Lamar Jackson is going to have a big year. Kirk Cousins is definitely a very good serviceable fantasy QB this year. I actually like Cam Akers more now than I did when we drafted. I think he has a chance to be pretty good this year. He was on fire to end the season last year. And if that continues, you know, he could have a big year this year.
00:02:44
Speaker
He also did add Stevenson in the trade from Sean and I, who we drafted and I do love, you know, add an AJ Brown.
00:02:56
Speaker
up there in everyone's rankings now. And I do think he competes for a title this year. So I had to move him up to start the season, but everyone else I want to see my own team. I'm a little more nervous about. We have Terry McLaurin as our top wide receiver. He injured his toe, hoping it doesn't linger too long.
00:03:18
Speaker
We do still have Allen and Hertz, so when I looked at John and now Pat's team, as well as Scott's teams, I still think we could take them. Scott has Cooper Cupp and Jerry Judy both dealing with injuries now. I have Cooper Cupp in a different league, and I'm very nervous there. So that's where I left my rankings. So to run through them quickly, I still have Matt and Dan at the top, croaked by number two.
00:03:47
Speaker
Catford and Mike Williams at number three. I moved Schluter into the number four spot. Harrison and Dan at number five. Dave at number six. Joe at number seven. Adam and Katz at number eight. Canelos at number nine. Kept myself and Sean at number 10. John and Pat at 11 and Scott at 12. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to see our power rankings begin to align now that we've seen players in our
00:04:16
Speaker
our perception of these players are starting to align more based on the football that we're seeing on the field. And I'll get into my ranks in a second. It is interesting to see that both of us have potentially all three hosts maybe missing the playoffs. So that means you're only going to get better rookie content later in the season. But moving to my rankings, my top three remain unchanged.
00:04:41
Speaker
I have Schluter in my top spot, Matt and Dan Rosinski number two, Canales number three, Crope making a big leap up to number four, Adam and Katz up to number five. I myself slid down to number six, Kaffir and Mike Williams up to number seven.
00:04:57
Speaker
Harrison DaCosta slid down to eight. John and Pat made a little leap up to nine out of the bottom spot. Joey Gallo moved down to 10. Ryan and John Wilkinson slid all the way to 11, and Scott hit the bottom of the barrel at number 12. I wish I had Joe here to defend our bottom rankings here, but I had a feeling it was coming from you. I knew you didn't love the trade we made, and we're much more of a Stevenson fan, so I had it coming.
00:05:26
Speaker
Uh, it's, I mean, I get it. Uh, I get them move the team, your team definitely in moving, uh, for, I guess for my
Team Strategies & Injuries
00:05:33
Speaker
bottom movers first. Uh, obviously your team took a tumble, but your team is clearly now playing for the future. It looks like what you're setting up with, which I agree with. Uh, you have a foundation in your two quarterbacks that are utterly elite with Josh out and Jalen hurts. No one can compete with that. It's just that after that, it gets rough. It's like, as you mentioned, Terry's hurt.
00:05:52
Speaker
Tony is always hurt. Mike limbs is sure to be hurt soon. Jameson Williams is hurt and can't rehab with his team for the next six weeks. Um, so like the wide receiver core, at least for the current year is looking a little rough. Uh, Madison Rashad white, they're like in the QB dead zone. I mean, RB dead zone where like they.
00:06:10
Speaker
could be good. They could lose their job later this year or next year. So a little tough to feel super confident about them. Um, and the rest of the bench leads a little bit to be desired, but again, QB's figured out and you got two first round picks, I think next year. So it's a little overwhelming. The amount of holes they got to fill, but you got the resource to potentially do it. So, uh, but the current look, yeah, a little, a little risk. You still took a stumble, but you're still ahead of Scott.
00:06:35
Speaker
That's true. Scott, I was optimistic about his team in my last ranking. And that was mainly because of the skepticism around his quarterbacks. And that situation has slightly improved where Jimmy G and Tennehill, both their roles actually look pretty secure this year. And he even has Ricky Clayton in tune who might get some stars at the beginning of the year with Kyler out. But after that, he had a lot of advantages at all the other positions that
00:07:02
Speaker
But due to injury and debt and competition from other recently signed free agents, those early season advantages seem to be going away. Cup and Judy both are dealing with hamstring issues, which always have a high chance of re-injury. Kittle has a groin injury. Breece, who's recovering from ACL, has to deal with Dalvin Koch now. And even James Connor, who not hurt, and should get all the touches in Arizona.
00:07:29
Speaker
Who cares when you're on a Kyler Murray, less lead offense that's going to be sputtering early and often probably get a number one pick next year. So I just think at full strength. Yes, you can compete with anyone, but unfortunately he is not at full strength and I think he's going to have a lot of struggles going forward. For some big movers try to get a little positive there. I got a little bad taste in my mouth after those.
00:07:51
Speaker
I had lower my rankings, but that was because I had a lot of concerns about how many players on this team you had to project to take a step forward this year. But this also was made before the Kelsey News, who hyper extended his knee earlier today. Does sound like his ACL is okay, and it should only be a couple of weeks, but we still haven't got the full picture on what happened there. But assuming he's okay,
00:08:18
Speaker
I think his team is going to really make some noise this year. I still don't love that he has the whole Eagles running back room in Smith and Penny, or at least the running backs that apparently you don't want. Gamel gets the hype as the lead dog there. But I have risen a bit on Amara Cooper. Calvin Ridley looks like that dude. He's like he used to be this preseason. So I'm actually rising big on him. Jordan Love actually has looked very solid and should be a good QB too. And even Van Jefferson, who was a late round pick,
00:08:47
Speaker
The Cooper Cup injury should be getting a ton of targets going forward, at least in the first half of the year. And I got to give some props to John Clark and Pat. I was very critical of their team. They were in the bottom spot in my initial rankings.
Bold Predictions & Draft Strategies
00:09:01
Speaker
But even though I don't love Ken Walker, I still think he'll be solid. But I have gained a lot of confidence in Damian Pierce based on his usage this preseason. And I no longer think single tear is going to be that much of an issue.
00:09:14
Speaker
Debo should get a ton of looks now with Kittle dealing with a groin injury. And James Cook is looking like a prime breakout candidate. And Pickens is got to be one of the biggest ADP risers based on the highlights this preseason alone. Still think he's got a lot of depth issues, but overall, I think he's got a lot of youth on this team that have a lot of upside and can continue to ascend up the rankings. Yeah, I agree with you. I think, like you said, our rankings are definitely more in line than they were initially. I had a crope at number two, and now you've
00:09:43
Speaker
moved him up and I had Schluter at number nine and moved him up and you always had him at the top. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Yeah, we're all in the Schluter bandwagon. I think even Joe had him. And once Joe gets his final updates, we'll flow that into our league doc and we'll have an updated consensus rankings that the league can all look at and see how they're trending. But with that, as we mentioned, the league
00:10:07
Speaker
is a sort of league is only two days away. And with that, we wanted to call our shots with some bold predictions. And honestly, when you're in your drafts, like in the mid to later rounds, you're kind of making bold predictions anyway. You're seeing a path forward and try to buy into a narrative you believe in. That's what bold predictions are. So we thought it'd be fun to announce some of ours and maybe get some of the other league mates involved as well. And with that said,
00:10:31
Speaker
One of the first bull predictions that we're going to bring up is from Pat Saucier, who is the co-manager and brother-in-law of John Clark of the team I just set, got a little boost in my power rankings. He couldn't figure out how to record his audio and send it to me, so I'm going to have to read his bull prediction. His bull prediction for the 2023 season is, Michael Thomas, wide receiver of the New Orleans Saints, will reach 1,000 yards receiving in his first healthy season since the melee of injuries dating back to 2019.
00:11:01
Speaker
He's been getting rave reviews throughout training camp and preseason and believes he is finally 100% healthy with no setbacks and looking like his old self. Derek Carr is going into the season highly motivated and will support more than just Chris Olave in fantasy and Michael Thomas. The return of MT is here. Even though my velvety voice read that bold prediction, please don't believe that I believe it.
00:11:24
Speaker
Yeah I mean the key there is first healthy season. Hasn't happened since 2019 so maybe it happens this year but I think it's a big if. I do like Derek Carr and I do think you know it should be a good passing offense and if he is healthy and does play the entire season it could happen but
00:11:44
Speaker
I don't personally see it happening and sounds like you don't either Dave. Yeah. I mean, I'll, and I understand there is definitely a world where this does happen. And I know a lot of people happen buying into it. I just, I can't get myself to do it. Like too many times in the past and I've done it myself where there's been a player who used to be stud and this hurt for multiple years in a row.
00:12:08
Speaker
One year is fine, but multiple years in a row, I just never see those players ever return to form. It's just such, in my opinion, bad bet to make. I also love Chris Olave, which.
00:12:17
Speaker
Even though I understand both can co-exist, I just, I want to give all my life to Chris Olave. I don't want any MT in my life. Give me Olave. I have no shares of him either. And I've been trying to get some. Yeah. I mean, I was going to say the same thing about, you know, one year injury. Maybe you see people come back from that, but for him to return to form from four years ago is a pretty big if he's four years old or now too. So, uh, it's bold for sure. Yeah. I mean, I remember I'm a little burned by, uh, Michael Thomas. I drafted him.
00:12:48
Speaker
in the first round a couple of years ago, while I was in the delivery room with my first son about to be born, uh, that is commitment that we have here. And he played like, what a game for me. So I never want Michael Thomas again after that. But, uh, speaking of being in the delivery room, our next poll prediction comes from Matt Rosinski, who actually just welcomed his second child in Cooper, uh, only a couple of days ago. So we want to send our congrats to Maddie before playing his poll prediction. Yeah. Congrats, Matt.
00:13:16
Speaker
And with that, take it away, Matty. Hi, guys. This is Matt from Dan's team. And my 2023 hot take for the NFL season is I believe that Josh Allen will be outside the top five in final QB rankings at the end of the season. I think contributing to that will be a combination of him continuing to play injured and banged up throughout the season.
00:13:42
Speaker
correlate to an increase in more turnovers for him. And I think that will result in him being outside of top five. I do believe he'll be a top 10 quarterback, but I don't believe it will be a top five quarterback. And if I dig a bolder prediction, I think the top five quarterbacks for the season will be Mahomes, Hertz, Burrow, Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. And that's my hot take for the 2023 season. I wish everyone good luck. All right. Thank you, Matty.
00:14:12
Speaker
But I don't know, Ryan, how do you feel about these coming after your boy? Yeah, feels like a personal attack there. I think it's pretty clear he must be sleep deprived over there with the new Ryan son. But yeah, I mean, obviously, I don't agree. I'm very high on Josh Allen this year. I think he's going to be right up there with
00:14:34
Speaker
All five guys that he named in his top five do also have hurt. So I'm glad to hear he has hurts in his top five. Sounds like number two. I don't know. I think it's bold to say Josh Allen is not going to be there. I think he definitely will. I mean, you know, I love Josh Allen as well. So it definitely is bold. He's universally a top two worst top three quarterback pick early rounds.
00:14:59
Speaker
Um, so yeah, we'll, we'll have to see how that one plays out, but that's what makes it bold. Moving on. We got a Scotty Rapizotti who I think might be from his, uh, giving us his bold prediction from his pool, but let's give a listen.
00:15:13
Speaker
All right, boys, here we go. It's the Scottie Rapizotti. While you're all sitting around talking about my team and trades and working the waiver wire, your boy here is sitting in the pool, 85 degrees, cigar in one hand, beer in the other. You all just work in the waiver wire. Season hasn't even started and you're real nervous already.
00:15:37
Speaker
But here's the bold prediction of this upcoming season. The Pats finish last in the division. You want to know why? Mack Jones, dog poopy. Here's the second bold prediction. The Bills don't make the playoffs. Yep, you heard it here first. The Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen, do not make the playoffs. So bold prediction number one, Mack Jones, dog shit. Buffalo Bills don't make the playoffs. Boom.
00:16:07
Speaker
Wow. Uh, yeah, I mean, I feel like, uh, he obviously has the same thinking as Matt there. Um, I mean, I will say I agree with one of his bold predictions. Um, definitely, uh, not a fan of the pads, but, uh, I don't know. I would definitely be very shocked if the bills missed the playoffs. I think that's honestly even bolder than Matt's prediction because, you know, Matt still had Allen potentially in the top 10.
00:16:35
Speaker
Uh, and they could still make the playoffs with that, but for them to not make the playoffs would be a shock all around. So that's very bold. Uh, yeah, I, I agree. I mean, it is a competitive division over there, but, uh, in the FCS, but yeah, I mean the bills are constantly a super bowl favorite. So the miss the playoffs altogether. I mean, that's, that's what you want to hear in some bold predictions ones that like make you really, you know, gas your draw drop a little bit. Um, plus.
00:17:03
Speaker
Got to respect the picture that Scotty painted in his backyard right there, man. I really wish I was hanging out with him there. Yeah, I know. I love that part of it. Anywhere you can give a bold prediction from poolside, you're clearly thinking straight, so I get it. Living life. Love it. Now, moving forward, our fearless co-host, Joey, was able to submit his bold prediction, so let's give a listen. Hey, guys.
00:17:31
Speaker
My bold prediction for the 2023 NFL and fantasy season is that the Green Bay Packers will win the NFC North and Jordan Love will be a top 12 fantasy quarterback. First, the division. This is as much a fade of the other teams as it is a pro Packers take, starting with the favorites. I'm nowhere near sold on the Lions, a squad that gave up the fifth most points in the league last year.
00:17:59
Speaker
and is still quarterbacked by Jared Goff, who has been inconsistent throughout his career, to say the least. Now, admittedly, they did improve the defense specifically in the secondary and the off season. They have a lot of youth on the defensive line. And these guys are in position to take a step forward this year. And they did add Jameer Gibbs, an offensive playmaker in the draft. But that being said, I am still not sold and comparative to Green Bay.
00:18:29
Speaker
I think that you could make the case that each of the position groups of the Packers is just as good, if not better, than the Lions. And as for the Bears and the Vikings, the Bears were the actual worst team.
00:18:44
Speaker
in the league last year. And I think we still need to see if Justin Fields can produce on the NFL field in the same way he produces for fantasy. Will he take that Jalen Hurts leap for real football? I mean, we know Justin Fields. He runs. He'll be a beast on the fantasy side. But I don't know that it's a guarantee that he'll take the same leap that Hurts did in terms of translating to wins and losses for his team. And Minnesota.
00:19:15
Speaker
The handicap here is really simply that they want a historic number of close games last season and regression is likely coming for them in that area.
00:19:24
Speaker
So now the Packers, in addition to what I mentioned earlier, I think they have the best head coach in the division. They have a strong offensive line. That will enable them to continue to be a force on the ground, where they have two strong running backs. Aaron Jones is coming somewhat close to the H-Cliff, but he still seems to have some juice.
00:19:46
Speaker
I am not a huge AJ Dillon guy after last year, especially his yards per carry numbers were less than, you know, not really anything too special, but these are backs that can get the job done behind a strong offensive line that they have. The defense is strong in the trenches, and I really think that
00:20:11
Speaker
Jordan Love is going to surprise with how functional he can actually be. I mean, if you look at his numbers in the preseason, he was 21 for 33. So 63.6%, three touchdowns, no interceptions. He rushed for 33 yards on four attempts. He didn't get sacked and he was throwing almost six yards. I think it was 5.8 yards.
00:20:37
Speaker
So all of this, I think his athleticism, mobility, and his speed and rushing ability will make him a serviceable quarterback for the Packers in a very underwhelming division.
00:20:49
Speaker
and a surprisingly strong fantasy asset. I think that he will carry guys like Christian Watson and Romeo Dubs to strong fantasy years. So I think that the Packers offense is actually going to be more fantasy relevant than folks think. So Packers, I think you can get them, plus 300, plus
00:21:12
Speaker
250 plus 350 something like that to win the NFC North. I think they and the Bears are kind of depending on which outlet you're looking tied for or kind of the same price in the highest, highest price to win that division. So there's my bold prediction. All right. By the way,
00:21:34
Speaker
Joey's eventually got to get a gambling like offshoot of this podcast. That's coming in. Yeah. Um, I like it. I mean, I don't think that it's super, super crazy. Obviously they're not projected to win it, but I definitely get what he's saying about the lions. I could see that happening. I like the Vikings. So I'd be shocked if the Packers finish ahead of them.
00:21:58
Speaker
Then I've been saying it all along, I'm not a huge believer that Justin Fields is going to take that leap. I don't think the Bears pose any threat really. I could see that one happening. Yeah, I agree. I mentioned earlier that I think Jordan Love has looked pretty good and could be a solid QB too. Who knows, maybe he gets a little bit more touch on the upside and ends up in that top club as Joey mentioned. That division is definitely one that
00:22:25
Speaker
I don't have confidence in any team, which means that I think I could see the Packers potentially take it out. The Vikings, as you mentioned, they won like, I think like seven, I forgot the exact number, but absurd amount of one score games. And the, the, the chinks in their armor, armor kind of showed in the playoffs when the, the giants, my giants who are elite, obviously,
00:22:46
Speaker
Uh, they were the underdogs and came out and beat the Vikings, uh, and then looked horrible to follow me, but we don't talk about that. Um, but yeah, and then obviously it's, it's hard to, hard to just have faith in the Lions who I think might be one of the favorites to win the division right now. Just because of the Lions, I don't know. There's certain teams that you just enfranchise. You just never feel confident about it. And the Lions are one of them. Yeah, I agree. Like Joe said, they had a good year last year, but a lot of close games. So like you said, no, I don't think anyone has extreme confidence in them to repeat. So.
00:23:16
Speaker
Yeah, and they had a lot of blowout games because their defense was horrendous. So it's hard to consistently win if you can't stop the other team.
00:23:24
Speaker
But moving on to my bowl prediction, generally in fantasy we typically target players on good offenses, which makes sense. Strong offenses typically rack up more yards and have more scoring opportunities. Well this season I've found myself continually targeting players from a particular team who last year finished 23rd in total yards per game and 26th in points per game.
00:23:47
Speaker
The stink around the Steelers offense has gone too far, in my opinion, and I implore you to take advantage of the discount on the Steelers offense with my bold prediction of the 2023 season, which is the Pittsburgh Steelers will have a player finish in the top 12 in each of the four main positions. Wide receiver, running back, tight end, and yes, even quarterback. So let's run through these positions and see if I can get you to buy in here. So first one, the easiest one, tight end, patch for iron roof,
00:24:16
Speaker
He is currently drafted as the number nine tight end. He finished last season as the tight end eight, and it honestly doesn't take much to finish his top 12 tight end fantasy. It typically comes down to a couple of touchdowns. You simply need an average, I think like seven and a half fantasy points per game to sneak in. So if you catch about 60 balls, 650 plus yards and around four to five touchdowns, your odds of being a top 12 tight end are pretty good.
00:24:41
Speaker
All and pretty much most people in the industry and I think many of us believe that the youth will get that and potentially even surpass it. You buy into the youth, right? Yeah. I mean, I think he's already being drafted there. So I think, you know, he's expected to finish in the top 12. So that one makes sense.
00:25:00
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, and if something happened to him, have you seen the rookie Darnell Washington guy is in a mountain of a man. He's six foot seven to what? 64 absurd body control. I think he'll probably get like five touchdowns this season alone and low usage red zone package roll. So like there's something happened.
00:25:17
Speaker
to the Muth, I think Washington could maybe have some touchdown upside and maybe keep my prediction alive. So I have a little insurance policy there. Yeah. Like you said, it doesn't take much to finish as a top 12 tight end. Exactly. So not bold yet. So let's move on. Let's see if we can get a little bolder. Running back. This one, still not that much of a stretch. We got Najee Harris. He, on average, was the 10th running back off the board. And it's usually based on his expected workload.
00:25:44
Speaker
Last year, many people viewed he had a down year, and he was still the running back 14. And this was mainly due because of the first eight weeks of the season, he was dealing with a foot injury from the preseason. I don't know if I remember that. Everyone thought he might be missing time. He ended up playing, but he definitely was hampered by it. But then after their bye,
00:26:04
Speaker
Week 10 on the last nine games of the year, he was the RB6. Just the year before that, he was the RB4. Clearly, I'm projecting that the Steelers offense are going to improve, so that would only benefit Najee. Now, again, if something were to happen to Najee, if you listen to the pod last week, you know that I'm a big Jalen Warren fan.
00:26:25
Speaker
He's my main buying dynasty and if something were to happen Najee say he had an injury I think Warren would step in and be a top ten back immediately I think even with Najee he's gonna put a blow at RB2 flex numbers and both these guys are excellent pass catchers and the fantasy with running backs you look for that because the reception is worth more than a rushing attempt and that only raises the floor and both the ceiling for Najee and Warren
00:26:50
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people do kind of seem down on Naji. So I get where you're coming from there. And I think a lot of that comes from people are actually high on Warren. So.
00:27:01
Speaker
You know, if you're high on one, then you're probably a little lower on Najee. But like you said, he's done it in the past and recently and he finished the year strong. So definitely see him finishing inside the top 12. So I think that one's definitely got a possibility. All right. So let's see if we can get Boulder. Maybe Boulder. All right. Let's get Boulder. Let's move on. Wide receiver. Now,
00:27:24
Speaker
This is just a touch bolder that Deontay Johnson and George Pickens, they're both being drafted on average around 35 and 31 and the wide receiver position respectively on sleeper. It's generally a toss up between who goes first in your draft, which makes sense because last year Pickens was the wide receiver 37 and Deontay wide receiver 39. But I see a lot of upside here. First, let's talk about Deontay. Last year, he didn't score a single touchdown on 147 targets.
00:27:52
Speaker
That is some Jacobi Meyers type stats. It's just comically unfortunate. The previous two seasons though, in 2021 and 2020, he had eight and seven touchdowns respectively, and he finished as the wide receiver nine in 2021. So you already know he's capable of finishing as a top 12 wide receiver. The guy is just so good at getting open, which leads me to his counterpart, George Pickens.
00:28:15
Speaker
because this guy cannot separate if his life depended on it. But it doesn't seem to matter because he just keeps making insane catches over defenders and tight coverage. Every week I've said this multiple times, there's new highlight catch. And although I prefer my wide receivers to show the ability to get a little space from defenders, which generally leads to more targets, clearly Pickens is one of the elite circus slash contested catch receivers in the game right now. And he has gained the confidence of his quarterback who is not shot away from tossing them up to him.
00:28:45
Speaker
Reddit is already enamored with pickings and apparently Kevin Clark of the ringers too, because he claims he's the best wide receiver in the NFL, like the best, which is just an absolute absurd statement to make. Um, whatever it takes for some clicks, I guess, but yeah, no matter your stance, though, the Steelers have two very capable and talented wide receivers. And I don't think it should shock anyone if one of them ended up in the top 12.
00:29:09
Speaker
I like it. I actually like Johnson more. I think, like you said, he had zero touchdowns last year. There has to be some positive regression there. And if he just catches a few, then he's obviously going to finish quite a bit higher than last year. Top 12 is definitely pretty bold. Neither one is being drafted anywhere near there. So if that one comes true, then you're going to get some great value in drafting either one of these guys.
00:29:35
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I'm actually, I agree. I like Deontay more over Pickens. Pickens is more of the highlight reel, but I've been trying to get Deontay in our league. Well, I tried to draft him and then Kanell sniped me, and I've been trying to trade for him ever since. I currently have an outstanding trade that Kanell is still looking at. I hope he accepts, but if he hears this thought before, he does.
00:30:01
Speaker
You just killed your trade because he's gonna hear you and know how much you want him now It's the downside of having a pod, but you know what I'm not gonna hold back I'm not gonna I'm not gonna spur any narratives in my favor It is what it is. I want the auntie and I expect the big season out of him But finally see how bold we can get it's quarterback. I
00:30:20
Speaker
Uh, this is where it gets bold. Uh, Kenny Pickett is coming off the board as in sleeper is about the quarterback 22. And often he's undirected. Um, after last season, he finishes the quarterback 28 on the back of seven. Let me repeat seven passing touchdowns. He did add three more on the ground, but 10 total touchdowns does not exactly inspire confidence in this prediction.
00:30:46
Speaker
He never scored more than 20 points in a single week and he had a touchdown rate, which is the percentage of your pass attempts that results in a touchdown of 1.8%. The league average is typically 4.5% and 5 plus being a very solid mark. So yeah, things were bad last year. Yeah, have I sold you? Now, what does it take, I guess, to be a top 12 quarterback? Well, on average, you have to average nearly 17 fantasy points per game.
00:31:15
Speaker
is generally required for pure pocket passers to have about 4,000 yards passing and about 30 touchdowns. However, we know Russian quarterbacks provide so much more value by racking up points with their legs, which lowers the bar of what you have to do through the air. Pickett isn't exactly known as a running quarterback, but he also showed a good amount of mobility last year.
00:31:37
Speaker
with 23 rushing yards and three touchdowns and really 12 games, omitting the ones that he got hurt. So I think it's pretty safe to say is a solid baseline of 300 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. If he hits those marks, then Pickett only has to throw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns to be knocking on the door of the top 12 finish. Can he do it? Well, I just laid out that he has two excellent wide receivers, a top 10 tight end,
00:32:05
Speaker
and another potential freak of a tight end TD threat in Washington. And he has two extremely talented pass catching running backs. He absolutely has all the weapons to get it done. And you know what, this preseason, if you've been watching, he looks really, really good. So I'm all in on Steelers this season. Feels like there's been a discount on them all draft season. And I say that you better scoop them up and enjoy the ride. So that is my bold prediction for the 2023 season.
00:32:34
Speaker
That's a bold one. I'll give it to you. I think the first three could happen, which by the way, I love the four bold predictions in one bold prediction, you know, Dave. I don't know. I'm not sold on picket. I mean, I think you said he has to go from seven, seven passing touchdowns to about 25.
00:32:57
Speaker
pretty big jump for me. I don't see it, but I think he could definitely... It's like a 350% jump. It's fine. I can see him making a jump. I don't know if he makes that much of a jump, so we'll see.
00:33:12
Speaker
All right, well, you know what, Rod, take us home. Why don't you give us the last bold prediction of the book. So I'll go last and you're going to love this bold prediction anyways, so it's a good one to finish on. Why do you think I made it last? So my guy's currently being drafted as the number 11 quarterback. He finished number ninth in fantasy points among all quarterbacks last year. This year he gets upgrades at wide receiver and tight end. Someone argued pretty massive upgrades.
00:33:41
Speaker
Uh, I think he's improved as both the passer and a rusher over the last few years. So my bold prediction for this season is that Daniel Jones finishes as a top three fantasy quarterback. So I know you're going to love that. Um, he rushed for just over 700 yards and had seven rushing touchdowns last year.
00:34:01
Speaker
And we know, as you said, rushing quarterbacks have a huge advantage for fantasy purposes. For comparison, Josh Allen, who you know I'm super high on, he rushed for 700 yards and seven touchdowns last year as well. So the knock on Jones is obviously the passing ability he threw for 15 touchdowns last year, which is not great. But if you just add five touchdowns to that, he would have been the number five fantasy quarterback last year, tied with the same number of points as Justin Fields.
00:34:30
Speaker
more than Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins. Only Mahomes, Allen, Hertz and Burrough would have had more points. I think he easily adds five touchdowns this year. The addition of Darren Waller is obviously huge and there's been a ton of hype on him. And if he's going to be, I think he's coming off the board in most drafts as the number three, at least the number four tight end right now. If he's going to be that
00:34:58
Speaker
you know, tight end, uh, I think it's going to come from touchdowns and I think Jones, uh, is going to see an uptick in touchdowns. So if people are believing in him, you got to believe in Jones a little bit. Uh, obviously the giants are all in. They give him a massive contract for years, 160 million, 82 million guaranteed. Uh, he has Barkley, um, who, you know, had a resurgence last year. So he has the run game to rely on. Um,
00:35:25
Speaker
you know, Jalen high at Paris Campbell as well. I think it all falls into place this year. And I think Daniel Jones finishes as a top three quarterback. You know, I love it. And honestly too, another little tidbit. They just restructured his contract. So I think a freed up six to $7 million. So they might make another move at some point this season. Hopefully I don't know. Maybe I'm putting it out there. Mike William and Mike Evans, excuse me. Give me Mike Evans out of Tampa Bay for someone who's not a slot receiver on the John. So that would be,
00:35:53
Speaker
It would be a better chance to be a top three quarterback. So I love it, Ryan. I love it. I knew you'd like that one. But to be clear, he's not knocking Josh Allen out of the top five like Matt thinks. No, no. It's going to be Hertz, Allen, and then DJ, right? Absolutely. Absolutely. Nice. Well, those were all bold predictions. I hope you guys enjoyed it. And thanks to our league mates for sending us yours as well. That was awesome.
00:36:23
Speaker
And before we sign off, kind of a boat prediction is kind of picking your fantasy MVP of the year or MVP of the NFL season, whichever way you view it.
00:36:33
Speaker
It's always hard to predict who you think is going to do it, but I want to, I figured it'd be fun for us to kind of throw it out there. But so Ryan, why don't you send us, tell us who your MVP is. Yeah. So I'll go first cause I really didn't go too bold with this. You know, I was going for who I really actually think will be the MVP at the end of the season. When you initially asked Josh Allen popped into my head, but I think that's just wishful thinking. I don't actually think he, he gets there. Um,
00:36:58
Speaker
I think it starts with Mahom. If you're going to talk about the MVP, then Mahomes is always in the running. He's there every year, and unless something crazy happens, he'll probably be in the running again. Although with the news of Kelsey, maybe that does put a little dent in his chances. Who knows? But the guy actually I'm going to go with is Joe Burrow. Not a bold prediction, but I think he puts it together this year. He's obviously been there these last couple of years, and I think
00:37:28
Speaker
He actually takes it home this season and wins MVP Awesome. Well that I think I think that's a pretty solid safe one. He's got a lot of weapons as well All right, and Joe as if you were here gonna toss it over you. Who is your MVP?
00:37:44
Speaker
Hey guys, so for my fantasy MVP I'm going to the mid rounds and going to select Johan Dotson. I think Johan Dotson is going to be one of the top 5-10 wide receivers by the end of the season at Total Fantasy Points and you're getting him at an extreme value in his current ADP. The handicap here is really simply that
00:38:07
Speaker
Not only is Dotson an incredible player who showed a ton of skill last year and a great deal of promise, he's in a situation where Sam Howell has impressed me in the preseason. And even if Sam Howell struggles, I have a lot of confidence in Jacoby Brissett, who was sustaining Amari Cooper to I think like five wide receiver, five overall through the first eight weeks of last season. So I'm confident in the quarterback play.
00:38:33
Speaker
I'm confident that they're going to need to score a lot of points because their defense is not great. And the fact that Terry Maclaurin already is dealing with injury in the preseason and turf toe is notoriously an injury that lingers for a while. This could be a situation where if Johan Donson is getting
00:38:53
Speaker
you know, 10, 12 targets a game. Um, I think that he's going to be as close to a league winner as you can get in at that round and that, or that part of the, uh, your draft. So John Dotson, my fantasy MVP for 2023. Yeah. I mean, I think that's a popular one. He's been flying up draft words. I think a lot of that does have to do with Terry McLaren getting injured, but
00:39:19
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, he seems great, so I think he'll definitely have a good year. I mean, I love him. I have him in a few other leagues. He just always seems to get open. I'm also a big howl guy. I have been since last season in Tennessee, and I made sure I got him in this league. Dotson is the only regret in the start of job. I did take Trey Lance where I performed. Obviously, mistake looking back on that. I thought Dotson would be a little overlooked, and I could get him
00:39:48
Speaker
next round, and he was the immediate next pick after that. So I've been putting that down every single time I look at Canales' roster, who, as I mentioned, sniped every young wide receiver from me. But no, I love the pick. I think Howell will support him. And yeah, I hope so, because that means my other teams will be doing well.
00:40:08
Speaker
So for me, my fantasy MVP is obviously Trevor Lauren. No, uh, I do think he's actually going to be in contention, but really, uh, I'm going to have Darren Waller and you kind of touched upon it before my bias. Yeah, maybe, but, uh, everyone wants to have positional advantage at tight end. It's why Kelsey go use before the injury news that broke today was going in the first half of the first round. Mark Andrews almost never made it out of the third round.
00:40:33
Speaker
because it provides such a huge advantage every single week. But you have to use such high draft capital to get those guys. And I truly believe Waller is going to dominate this year as the number one target. I mean, Andrew is the number one target.
00:40:46
Speaker
for the Ravens and Kelsey is for the Chiefs. Waller is that for the Giants. I could easily see him finishing at the tight end two this year. And one of the biggest reasons why Kelsey gets that bump to the first round is that last year he scored 100 more points in the tight end two. That was an additional six or so fantasy points per game. So not only will Waller, I think, finish at the tight end two, I think he's going to close that gap significantly, where Kelsey, yes,
00:41:12
Speaker
has the fantasy points per game advantage. But I don't think it's going to be as drastic as it was last year. And you're getting Waller in the fifth, sometimes sixth round. So you can scoop up a lot more value in those first early rounds and then still get a premium advantage at the tight end position a little bit later. So that's why I think he is going to put up Kelsey Light stats and be your fantasy MVP.
00:41:35
Speaker
Yeah, I definitely agree. I do think he makes a jump and is up there with the Kelsey and the Andrews this year. Obviously I just did my whole should be on Daniel Jones. So if he's going to be a top three fantasy quarterback, then Waller is probably going to be on the other end of it. So I like lines and you heard it. Ryan is in on it. I'm in on it. I like it. I love it. Well, this is our first pod under an hour. I hope you guys enjoyed it. This was a really fun one. And honestly, guys,
00:42:05
Speaker
Two days, and we got real
Closing & Future Podcast Plans
00:42:07
Speaker
football. What do you think, Ryan? Two days. Can't wait. It's going to be fun. And yeah, we're excited to do this throughout the season for you guys. All right, yeah. And get ready for more frequent pods coming up in the fantasy scene. Thanks again, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks, everyone. Thank you for listening to another episode of the NSFW Dynasty podcast.
00:42:34
Speaker
Tune in next time.