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WCAD 4-8: Group B Preview
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The WCAD Preview Cycle reaches Group B, as the guys break down hosts Canada, a Switzerland team smack-dab in the middle of the European contingent, a Qatar side struggling for form, and Bosnia & Herzegovina, who may have captured the heart of one of the hosts...
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Transcript
Is Group B the Most Interesting in the World Cup?
00:00:01
Speaker
We're not going to lie to you on the World Cup After Dark podcast. We're going to give it to you straight. We're going to tell you what we think. And you're probably going to spend an hour with us anyway. And so is Group B the best group of the World Cup? No.
00:00:14
Speaker
Is it a super interesting group? Also, probably no, but we are here nonetheless because we have Canada, Switzerland, Qatar and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the same World
Spicing Up the World Cup Groups
00:00:25
Speaker
Cup group. Amit two of them will make the knockout stage, perhaps three.
00:00:29
Speaker
This is one of, I think, a number of groups of opportunity, but this might be the most opportunist of the opportunities. a lot of nice ways to couch it. I thought on an earlier podcast, we said, you know, it was our job to, you know, spice up some of the groups. And then here we are. No spice. You're coming in saying we give it to you straight on World Cup After Dark.
00:00:50
Speaker
But I guess it's a little bit of both. That's why you're here. You ah you got spice for this group? I mean, no, but i exactly what you said. Like, it's an opportun opportunisticist, whatever the word is. It's not a real word.
00:01:06
Speaker
Group of opportunity, for sure.
Introducing the Hosts: Austin Miller and Amit Malik
00:01:08
Speaker
My name is Austin Miller. He, on the other end, is Amit Malik. This is the World Cup After Dark Podcast, continuing our preview of all 12 World Cup groups today with Group B, which features the weakest host country, I think it's fair to say, in Canada, The perfect representation of what is a mid-European team in Switzerland.
00:01:27
Speaker
Perhaps the least deserving team to be at this World Cup. More on that in a bit in Qatar. And what I think is probably a meme European team in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But as we'll get to could be interesting. I think as we dive in a minute, we'll probably talk ourselves into this group by the end of the podcast.
00:01:46
Speaker
But at least from 30,000 foot view, if you're skipping a group of this World Cup, this one might be up there. Yeah, I think so. Unless you're, you know, Canadian or Canada fan, like, you know, the North American bias, perhaps of listenership or, you know, United States, North
Canada's Ambitions as World Cup Host
00:02:06
Speaker
America. I mean, it's an exciting opportunity for a host to make a run in that sense. And I'm sure there'll be some good atmosphere for them. Again, as we kind of talked about with...
00:02:15
Speaker
John Arnold, as we talked about in our preview show, it doesn't feel like a full-on host thing for them. It's kind of like auxiliary matches, but that is something that matters. As we're going to talk about, the winner of this group gets a first-round game in Canada, so certainly there's some incentive there.
00:02:35
Speaker
I think, what word did you use to describe Bosnia exactly? i call them a meme team. Yeah, that's right. um You know, earlier we when we did our group A, we said, is Czech Republic the worst European team here?
00:02:48
Speaker
Upon further review, and that's what we're here to do, I think Bosnia might be on on pure talent. But um again, fascinating question. What is the worst European team here against a...
00:03:00
Speaker
very mid European team here and against the third best CONCACAF team against a very, very mid Asian team. Like, listen, you got to get answers to some of these questions in international soccer somehow.
00:03:13
Speaker
And look, we're the people who are asking those questions. Like you may be listening. together Who is asking? Can a mid-Petro state? How does a mid-Petro state Asian team match up against a meme European? That's what we're here for. We're going to break it all down for you. I also want to couch all of this by saying that there is absolutely no doubt that at 3 p.m. Eastern on June 13th, I'm going be plopped on my couch watching Qatar, Switzerland, just eating it all up because it's the World Cup and that kind of can make any stink.
00:03:41
Speaker
Like you can redeem any stink, right? Exactly. That's the that's the the beauty of it all. You alluded to the draw of it. like Let's get into it here a little bit. the The winner of this group will play a third place team in Vancouver, which sounds like an opportunity. Obviously, the winner of the Portugal group or another third place team would await in the round of 16. Argentina's group, the winner of that group is also kind of the other seeded team in that quadrant. That's where the theoretical Argentina, Portugal quarterfinal that we've talked about could come to. This group will play a role in whether that happens or not. The runner up here will play the runner up of the Mexico group in Los Angeles with the winner of the Netherlands group and the runner up of the Brazil group. We're waiting in and the round of 16. France is also in the quadrant.
00:04:23
Speaker
The path for the runner up to win a game seems open. Getting further than that looks a bit difficult. The group winner here, I think, can kind of talk themselves into potentially making a run. And obviously there's incentive for Canada to stay in Canada. They'll play their first match in Toronto, then fly across the Vancouver for the other two to keep the Canadian times rolling, right?
Canada's World Cup Journey and Challenges
00:04:44
Speaker
Yeah, I think for both of the top two teams here, it's a decent path, right? Again, we don't know what that third-place team looks like, and it could be chaotic, but I think you just rather would would would face a third-place team in the round of 32. That's a good outcome. But particularly for the runner up here, I mean, we've talked about kind of this group and...
00:05:04
Speaker
group a mexico's group that team if it's not mexico could be south korea could be czechia could be south africa i think any team here would back themselves i'm sure the other team would back themselves but like that's a winnable game and i think you you feel good you know it's a it's tough right you win this group yeah you get a third place game but then you get what portugal or columbia like It's tough for, I think, either and anyone in this group to really have a super high ceiling. Now things happen, right?
00:05:36
Speaker
But like, and we're here to do dark horse stock, but ah it's ah it's a challenging little draw. but also like a theoretical Switzerland, Portugal round of 16 matchup. Like you can, you know, you can talk yourself into that. I think to just to illustrate that the point on the third place team and how you don't know what that is. There's 495 possible combinations of which third place, like which third place team ends up in which of those third place team matchups. And you can find them all in annex C of the tournament regulations if you are so interested. But for example, the winner of this group will get a third place team from e f
00:06:13
Speaker
G, I, or J. So there's five possibilities. in but It's to try and map that all out ahead of time, not being paid to do it by a national team. Like if a national team is paying me to do that, sure, I'll i'll sit here and I'll map it all out because I think that could be useful.
00:06:28
Speaker
For our purposes, it's not tech not that useful it's to map it all out, but it's good to keep an eye on what that looks like. Yeah, I think even on the final day of the group stage, you're not even going to necessarily like have a great picture. you're going to have a decent picture, but like those ones really come down to the wire the way the third place table works. So it's hard it it is hard to map Canada are one of the three host countries for this
Canada's World Cup History and Jesse Marsh's Impact
00:06:51
Speaker
World Cup. It is their third World Cup appearance, having appeared in 1986 and at the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022. There was a lot of buzz for Canada ahead of that appearance in Qatar. I don't think, Amit, you stank them with a dark horse pick. ah he's he's but he's not He's shaking his head vigorously at me. He did not stink them, but somebody did because Canada did not have a great World Cup.
00:07:14
Speaker
They lost three games to Morocco, Croatia, and Belgium. They had some pre-turn it was, didn't quite work out for John Herbman's side. They obviously qualified for this World Cup through hosting. They have had okay results over the past few years. Their biggest kind of Test over that period was the 2024 Copa America, which was hosted in the U.S. They made it to the semifinals. They got beat by Argentina twice in that tournament, once in the group stage, once in the semifinals.
00:07:38
Speaker
They beat Venezuela on penalties to make the semifinals. They had a massive disappointment at the last Gold Cup. They went out 1-1 on penalties to Guatemala in the quarterfinals. After John Herdman left with some federation turmoil after that World Cup, they Canada soccer eventually settled on Jesse Marsh, an American, to lead their side.
00:07:57
Speaker
He, Amit, has Red Bull pedigree, managed New York Red Bulls, Red Bull Salzburg, Red Bull Leipzig. Briefly, had a stint at Leeds, took over ahead of that Copa America in 2024. And I don't know how this World Cup is going to go, but I think the hiring of Marsh really invigorated this program at a moment when they really needed it. There were financial troubles after the last Copa World Cup appearance, I should say.
00:08:21
Speaker
They didn't have a great buildup towards that Copa America, but Marsh kind of came in and said, I'll work with whatever you can give me. And it feels like, if nothing else, he has instilled an identity and at least it looks like belief.
00:08:35
Speaker
Yeah, invigorated is a great word. He's an energetic manager. He's from that energy drink brand of soccer. That is just the way to describe him. And I think, especially with the stuff you're kind of talking about with Canada's going through some some turmoil, some chaos, he has kind of been a rallying point for them. And, you know, I think he...
00:08:57
Speaker
in ah In choppy seas, he's the type of guy that you can like believe in. And I think that helps Canada a lot. i think that helps the players a lot. I think he's a great player relationships guy.
00:09:08
Speaker
he is brash. He's got that American swagger. He is of the Red Bull mentality of we're going to punch you first, and we're going to keep punching you and we're never going to stop punching. And like, I think for for Canada, that suits them. That suits this team, that suits this players. It's been a nice marriage for them. And I certainly think there's a lot of Americans in the soccer scene that would have liked a guy like Marsh to be in charge of the American national team, where that kind of personality could match well with the ah style of the team.
00:09:41
Speaker
Now, he, you know... It's interesting, like, his managerial pedigree is of this red gold Red Bull stature, but, you know, he's not the most successful, right? He went to Leeds. He was in the Premier League, at America the Premier League. Great.
00:09:55
Speaker
they They went down, but he did okay. I'm not sure it was 100% his fault. He kind of went up the ladder of these Red Bull clubs. Like, yeah he definitely knows Red Bull soccer, but also, like...
00:10:07
Speaker
Is he the best American manager? would Just for example, like would he have been the best for the United States job? There's a reason why. they He was probably on their list and then go with him. like He brings his own sort of complications, right? I think he is very insistent on the style and he gets a lot of it, but it's not guaranteed to work. It's not guaranteed to work for Canada. So it's in it's an interesting thing. i think, as you said to start, like...
00:10:30
Speaker
It seems right now. like It seems like the right fit now. Let's see, I think, at this moment. like Can he get the vibes? and the The whole point of the style is some is greater than the parts.
00:10:44
Speaker
That's what Canada needs. Can he massage it all together at the right time? It's at all opportunistic. And can those parts turn into a sum that can then be greater than a sum that is greater than the sum? That's a very complicated way of saying it. But can this style work against teams that are either better or demonstrably better than them?
Canada's Aggressive Playing Style and Key Players
00:11:08
Speaker
And that, I think, is the key question for Canada at this World Cup. And it's one that we might...
00:11:12
Speaker
not get the answer to in this group because I don't think there's anybody that on paper should blow Canada out of the water. Going forward, should they advance, maybe they'll run into that, but they might be far enough along in the World Cup that it's just gravy at that point. That's what they put on the poutine.
00:11:26
Speaker
Thank you for the little Canada reference. We love that. um Yeah, I think you you said it well. like This style, again, Red Bull soccer is about pressing. It's about verticality. It's about chaos. It's about...
00:11:42
Speaker
freeing space by dislodging it with running. And then you have some really good attackers on this team that when you give them space and a high volume, they just kind of overwhelm you with their athleticism, create a high volume of chances. They get up and then they can protect it with their, again, the key calling card of this system is using game structure and athleticism where perhaps you don't quite have the best technical players on the pitch. This team is worse technically than Mexico.
00:12:14
Speaker
I think worse technically than the United States. Definitely worse than insert your European favorite team of choice. But the athletes here are awesome. And there are enough players who are good attackers, just enough that if the system works, they can do damage, right? So that's kind of the model here. Now, I think thinking about Argentina when we saw that in the Copa America was such a great reference point of like – Look, this can work to a level, but when you get the Argentina level of passing an IQ, they're like, okay, come at us.
00:12:48
Speaker
Now we see the space that you've left and we know how to get the ball in that space without making a mistake. Now it sounds easier said than done, but like Argentina is very good and they made Canada look pretty, pretty hopeless is, is kind of fair, right? Two, two zeros. And it wasn't really close. Yeah.
00:13:07
Speaker
But also Argentina isn't really the level Canada's punching at in this World Cup. And that's not the goal. Yeah, right. That's to be completely blunt. Canada is not trying to win this World Cup. if They won the World Cup. It would be an incredible story. They are trying to make the round of 16. And this style, I think, kind of helps them do that. So we talked about the Canada are looking to try and get more, the you know, the sum of their parts. What are the parts that they're working with here?
00:13:34
Speaker
It kind of, I think it does us well to start with the leggy part of this and and kind of start an attack and and maybe some of the midfielders. The biggest name for Canadian soccer is obviously Alphonso Davies.
00:13:45
Speaker
It seems like I'm in every single major tournament. It's going to have the same question. Is Alphonso Davies going to be healthy? So is Alphonso Davies going to be healthy? You know, he got hurt at Bayern in the middle of the spring, right when you don't want him to get hurt. But he's come back from that. And I think they've managed him as well. And again, Bayern are very, very protective of him, which is tough for Canada, I think, in the past years. But look, it's World Cup time. i do think he's fine. I think he played decent enough in the Champions League when they lost to PSG. um
00:14:17
Speaker
he He should be good to go. I think they're counting on him to be at full bore. And I, you know, i I think he I don't think it should be an issue. So if Alphonso Davies is this team's best player, is it fair to say that maybe their most important player at this World Cup could be Jonathan David?
00:14:35
Speaker
Yeah, i I don't think it's really close. Like you're counting on Davies to do a lot of the running and electricity and play make and cover ground. But listen, for every team, the question is who's scoring the goals. And I think David is a great answer. He is right on that cusp of being like an elite superstar forward. He's he's not. He's, you know, he's a very, very good forward.
00:15:01
Speaker
But you see the flashes with him all the time. You've seen it with Canada. You've seen it at the club level. He has that profile of a dynamic number nine. He's not a bruiser. He's a channel runner, and he's a good, ruthless finisher.
00:15:13
Speaker
Ruthless is the word, though, because they need ruthless in this system. All of this Red Bull soccer doesn't work if the striker you generate... You're not trying to generate like three good chances. You're trying to generate six, seven, eight half chances, chances in space.
00:15:30
Speaker
David is the guy for this system too. If he is in form, everything changes for this team. And if he can raise that level and get, like we've seen it, World Cup heaters happen. And they can happen for anybody. They can happen for the best player in the tournament. They can happen for a mediocre player in the tournament. David is obviously somewhere in between those two kind of ends of the spectrum. But if Jonathan David gets on a run in this World Cup, he puts a goal past Bosnia, he puts two past Qatar, he's scoring against Switzerland, that opens up so many possibilities for Canada. Because like you said,
00:16:06
Speaker
they're going to get to, this is a very technical way of putting it, they'll get to 1.6 XG in the game, but their 1.6 XG doesn't come from 4.4 chances. It comes from 8.2 chances, right? And that's a super technical way of looking at it.
00:16:22
Speaker
But basically it's saying they are trying to turn half or less chances into goals simply by the volume that they create. Yes, they want a lot of events. and And listen, some of those might be good ones, and you you better score those. But that is generally kind of the vibe here. And so the other thing is, I think, you've now this is you know the second World Cup. This is ah this is the second cycle.
00:16:46
Speaker
Davies and David have some chemistry, right? They just know how to play off each other in the box. And then you toss in on the right wing a very good, not not elite, not champions level, but a very good athletic Tayshaun Buchanan, good creator.
00:17:00
Speaker
If he knows how to read those guys in the box and they're just coming at you over and over again... Is he getting in a rhythm? I, you know, that's what you want to see for him. And and listen, it might not be a goal every game, but like, is there, is that that moment where he, where he just out foxes the defense with his chemistry? We're like, that's what you're hoping for, for Canada.
00:17:23
Speaker
And Canada really need Jonathan David to be that player because behind him, I'm not sure I'm convinced by a lot of the options. We've kind of seen the Kyle Lahren movie before. It's just not what it needs to be for Canada. And also the other attacking options here are really raw or somehow. What is Junior Hoylet still doing here?
00:17:45
Speaker
I think he's just in for like, got funny ski eyess we got a vibes guy. Yeah. I mean, like, look, he's still like kind of an attacking creative player at this stage of his career, but his legs are completely gone. So I, I, I personally would be, would be shocked to expect that. And then also you're looking at your other, like your bench winger, your next bench winger is like Jacob Schaffelberg. And I've, you know, he is just a very MLS, and MLSC player. Look, I like Jacob Schaffelberg at the Cove America. He had some Argentine commentators like, oh, who is this Schaffelberg guy? Because he runs. And that is kind of the recipe here for Canada is, all right, we've got these two, three, maybe really quality players.
00:18:24
Speaker
We're expecting everybody else, particularly in the attack and midfield, to just put the pedal to the floor and go. And that's what they need. Yeah, and that's where, you know, you talk about the Wings and Attackers. You've got, I think, the midfield. A player I'm really circling to to run this system is Ismael Kone. He is a very fast um midfielder at Sassuolo.
00:18:47
Speaker
Again, he's not elite. Like, I'm not saying he's a champions-level player, but like... Speed in the system is what it is. And the other play I'm really circling as crucial to the style is center back Moise Bombito at Nice in France. He is also very, very fast. Now, listen, these guys are at the levels they're at and they are fast, but they're not better than where they're at, which means there's holes in the other spots of their game. But like to play this system, good athletes, good foot speed.
00:19:14
Speaker
Can you compress the field? Can you generate chaos and get away with high lines and leaving space that you can cover with your legs. Obviously, Davies is fast.
00:19:24
Speaker
Your left back, Richie Larea, is fast. I think that's where not only you fast, but the engine. Can you just really put a team... in the bad spot where they don't want to run with you and they don't want to go toe to toe with you for 90 minutes and that they start like making mistakes. You speed them up, you get the ball in transition. And that's the model here. And I think those are the key players to kind of make that happen.
00:19:51
Speaker
And what's interesting is i think this group, and we'll talk about Qatar, we'll talk about Bosnia in detail in a bit. Those teams are exactly the type of teams that Canada wants to see because what have we seen from Qatar over the last five years?
00:20:05
Speaker
Prone to mistakes, absolutely mistake prone. Canada gets that thing fired up, Qatar will give you the ball. What have we seen from Bosnia legs? Not really a question because they just probably don't exist. And so Canada can force Bosnia to play faster than they're able to play. This group, I think, matches up really well because Switzerland also aren't, I think, at a level that's high enough that you look at it and say,
00:20:28
Speaker
They're just going to exploit all the space. And maybe they will. And maybe they get to that level. But I don't think on paper it's that bad of a matchup for Canada-Switzerland. And so you look at it and you say, there's three group stage games here where our system can probably get us a result if everything goes well.
00:20:44
Speaker
Yeah, and I think that is ah good a good place to be for them. They're going to try to dislodge you and and make you uncomfortable. And I think also just in terms of quality, like at other spots, yeah, those guys I mentioned are the key athletes, but like Alistair Johnston at right back is just a very solid player at Celtic, you know, does a little bit of everything. He's not quite as fast the other guys, but I think maybe...
00:21:08
Speaker
perhaps the most ah best passer technical player on the back line. And then you got to mention, we haven't mentioned him, Steven Eustachio. He went to Porto. He came back on loan to MLS. He's at LAFC, just a very good solid holding midfielder. He's kind of been at the center of this project this whole time. He's crucial to what they do. And again, he's not the speedster, but he is kind of the one guy I think that can slow the game down a little bit when they need that. And they're going to need that.
Concerns About Canada's Team Depth
00:21:35
Speaker
So,
00:21:36
Speaker
I'm really, the the more I think about this team, I'm excited about the game model. I think they're going to have a chance to really punch team to the face. Can they defend leads is one part of it.
00:21:49
Speaker
They don't really have a plan B other than, you know, play Red Bull soccer. Like that's one thing. And then also I think the depth here, you really got to be worried about like, yeah, they have 23 guys. the The level is higher than it's ever been for this program. But then the drop off, particularly in terms of like,
00:22:05
Speaker
Maybe they're athletes, but they're not as good to the ball or they're just not as good of athletes in in the second, third string. And that's where, you know, this team, I think needs its best 11 to play the system at a high level. And as you see with this system, right, if it's about 11 going as one, if there's weak links here and you leave space and a guy doesn't know the press, a guy doesn't know the line, you can look really silly. And this is a team that I think is going to be involved in some open games. And that's going to be fun, I think, for the neutral, but could like you could absolutely be caught on the wrong end against the team with with enough quality.
00:22:40
Speaker
And that's where I think Marsh having been in the job for as long as he has helps that there's not a lot of new faces in the project. It's not like we're talking we're talking about the same players that we've been talking about for the last year or two for Canada. That probably really helps here a longer build up towards the World Cup time in camp between games. That all works towards getting to that cohesive 11 moment. But I'm with you. The depth that is definitely a concern.
00:23:06
Speaker
But look, this is, and we've talked about this with a lot of different teams. This is the type of team Canada make you get to a level to beat them. If you hit that level, you can beat them.
00:23:16
Speaker
But if for whatever reason, you're not at that level, Canada can cause problems. And so when that is a top second tier European team or a middling second tier European team, that is going to be the question in that game.
Switzerland's Consistent World Cup Performance
00:23:29
Speaker
And it's not something that you and I can look at and say ahead of time, but okay, can Switzerland get to the level necessary to beat Canada? If it's Portugal in a round of 16, can Portugal get the level necessary to beat Canada?
00:23:39
Speaker
The answer is probably yes, but you have to see it on the pitch to be able to be sure of it. Switzerland, a bit, are making their 13th World Cup appearance. They've qualified six times in a row. They are probably the cut line for what we would consider Tier 2 in Europe.
00:23:54
Speaker
Making the World Cup for as long as they have been in this stretch is probably a good outcome for where they are at. They are probably among the 16-ish best national teams in the world, and they're definitely not among the 8-ish best national teams in the world.
00:24:09
Speaker
They are a round of 16 team that has been dealt a very good group stage draw. Their best World Cup finishes came back in the 1930s and 1950s when the World Cup was just starting. They made the rounds of 16 three times in a row. They lost in the round of 16 three times in a row. They got smoked by Portugal in 2022.
00:24:25
Speaker
They were closer against Sweden and Argentina in 2018 and 2014. They had a solid qualifying run. Could have been a tricky group with Kosovo, Slovenia and Sweden. It wasn't four wins, two draws, plus 12 goal differential easily into the World Cup.
00:24:40
Speaker
Didn't have a great group stage at the Euro in 2024. One win and two draws against Germany, Scotland and Hungary, but they beat Italy and then took England to penalties in the quarterfinals.
00:24:50
Speaker
i but This is a team that takes care of business. They push the best in the world without necessarily being better than them. They haven't really ever gotten over the hump, but they have had some good results over the years.
00:25:01
Speaker
This feels like a team that should probably win this group. They should probably win a game in the round of 32, and then they will probably go out in the round of 16. you just kind of look at their, their recent track record and it all points to like the same thing. They get to the top European team or the top of tier two European team and they lose to that team. I think maybe you, that Sweden loss was tough and,
00:25:27
Speaker
Remember Euro 2020, they came back crazy in 3-1 to knock off France. And that was kind of the paul the game that Paul Pogba dunked on them with five celebrations and they ended up coming back to win. like They can win that game against the team they're not supposed to. But now we've kind of said that's one out of six, one out of five. like They can win that game.
00:25:49
Speaker
They can't win it twice. Like they haven't so the potential to go on a long run. They can come up with an odd result here or there. You know, we said it. They knocked out Italy. They've knocked out France. But again, they haven't ever gotten further than the quarterfinals of the Euro. They haven't gotten further than the round of 16. This team's level, their gap between their ceiling and their floor feels small.
00:26:09
Speaker
And I like that's that's just I think it's really shown up like they are right there. And that's what's tough for them in this World Cup is i don't think you want to put too much dark horse stock of them, even though the draw is good, because their path to a quarterfinal goes through Portugal or Netherlands.
00:26:29
Speaker
And yes, they will make that either those teams beat them if it is those teams, but it's, there's not really any great way you can talk themselves into being better than those teams. And specifically before we talk about the team specifically is that on the team, right? I think Germany is a little better.
00:26:49
Speaker
Netherlands, Belgium, a little better. Portugal, better. And then and then in turn italy Italy, not here. So i'll give I'll give Switzerland better than that. But ah that's kind of, again, those are the non-best teams in Europe, and and they're they're they're the bottom of tier two. So I think we're pretty fair.
00:27:08
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. Murat Yakin took over in 2021 as manager. He's had a pretty long run with the project. He's pretty stable. Oversaw a solid Euro campaign. Oversaw a solid qualifying campaign. And Amit, a sneaky good hair guy?
00:27:21
Speaker
Yeah, I'm liking his flow back there. I think he he could steal some ah steal some hearts on the sideline this year. if ah If the group isn't interesting, maybe the hair will be for for Switzerland. the The style of it here, like you said, it feels fairly standard. They're fast. They can be physical. They have Granit Xhaka, who we'll talk about and them a bit in the middle. He means control. They are a little counter punchy. They're maybe a little reactive, but they're not super defensive.
00:27:46
Speaker
They're not super attacking. It's maybe kind of like Switzerland, a mix of a little bit of everything, right? You've got Italian, you've got French, you've got German. It all kind of coalesces together into what it is. um They came up with a couple of interesting friendly results, a nil-nil against Norway, and then a 4-3 loss to Germany.
00:28:05
Speaker
So, yeah. Yeah, like, that's kind of, I think it's that weird European smorgasbord
Switzerland's Pragmatic Playstyle and Key Players
00:28:12
Speaker
of everything. like Which is what Switzerland is as a country. Yes, exactly. Which is, like, lovely in its own way. And it's so funny. Like, yeah, they played a super open game against, again, we know Germany wants to to rev up the press and get it open, 4-3. Like, hey, they they hung. They also played a very good attacking team in Norway, and were like, hey, we know what you like to do. We can stop at this time. Played a 0-0. Also didn't score. So, like...
00:28:36
Speaker
That to me, like, I think there's a lot of adaptability in this team. I think that's a strength, but it's also a limiting factor in terms of, like, they don't necessarily have quite a distinct identity. And, like, listen, I know that the the European mucky middle would be easy to be like, well, they play European soccer. And we could say that about all all the middle European teams. But, like, no, like...
00:28:58
Speaker
We've seen kind of all the tier two teams. a lot of them have a bit more distinct style than this. They're just kind of out there. They know what they're doing. They're solid. And they'll play the game that's on the field for them. But they they're not really going to be super distinct stylistically. Solid feels like a term we're going to be using a lot as we break down this squad because you start in defense. Manuel Aconji, Nico Elvini, very solid center back pairing. Gregor Colbel, first choice goalkeeper, very solid goalkeeper.
00:29:26
Speaker
This team is also kind of in the Canada mold of there may not be one individual extremely good part of Canada is maybe ah not the best comparison because you've got Davies and David. They're hoping that all of these solid parts come together and come up with the results.
00:29:43
Speaker
Yeah, I think honestly, Davies 100% and maybe David are better than everyone here. That might not be fair to Granit Xhaka, who has you know has shown his class in the midfield.
00:29:55
Speaker
But I think players like 2 through 11 are all pretty solid and say we keep using that word but like better here and like these are players that are not quite champions league maybe not europa league but all in that like tier of like top five leagues good clubs i mean akonji's at inter milan good player like you know i think kobe at dormant that's a champions league team so like there is there is that range of of top european talent feels like the fullbacks may be an issue
00:30:26
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, listen, it's Switzerland. It's Ricardo Rodriguez. We all remember him from 2014. It's 12 years later, and he is still the left back. And he has went from Bundesliga, like where he kind of was a very good fullback, to now at Real Batiste. And I think it's very silly to do the German to Spanish transition, it normally means you've gotten a lot slower and a lot less physical. And that's the, look, listen, like Batiste is actually a good team. Like they, they're they're great. And he's still a great crosser, still a great dead ball specialist could have a free kick should be great. I think Switzerland is exactly the type of team that they get in the the dressing room and set pieces is on the whiteboard for how they can kind of squeeze some value, especially when you've got to play like Rodriguez. But I think an open play, i think it's a liability to have him against,
00:31:14
Speaker
the the best attacking wingers. And even a team like Canada, even a team like Bosnia, who's got, he's got a winger or two, like that's some trouble. and then you look at the right back, it's like Sylvan Widmer at mines. Mines went down. i mean, like, it's not a good thing ah for, for him. The other guys, Fabian reader, Michael, be sure,
00:31:33
Speaker
They are, again, below like European, Europa League level fullbacks. So again, like is the level in this group going to be a problem? I don't think so. I think they'll be fine. But again, when you're looking at the better teams in Tier 2, I do think fullback is a weakness here for Switzerland.
00:31:52
Speaker
In the midfield, it's the great at Shaka Saunce. He has like totally kind of redone his career. And I think that is sparked by Xabi Alonso at Bayer Leverkusen. They played a back three. They put a lot of defensive structure around him. So his lack of movement was less of a liability. And he could kind of just pull the strings with his elite passing and still at least be physical enough to say, listen, even though I can't move,
00:32:17
Speaker
If you come near me, i will stop the ball. like I have a good tackler. I'm strong. like That is something. But honestly, I think, you know and even to this day, ah you know I'm not an Arsenal fan. If you've long-time listened to this podcast, know that. Even to this day, his class at Arsenal, his passing was exceptional. And he has aged really well.
00:32:36
Speaker
We've seen a lot of these types of midfielders like have really long careers. And he is just... I think an exceptional, an exceptional long range passer of the ball. And that when he has runners off of him is really good. And also just a guy that, hey, the game is a little chaotic. OK, pass him the ball and let him control the tempo. That is a helpful player to have.
00:32:59
Speaker
And it feels like they've surrounded him with more leggy pieces, if you will, that can maybe do some of the running that at this point he can't. Yeah, it's it's funny. I think Remo Freuler is also a bit slow and good passer next to him, but he covers ground enough. And then a player I'm intrigued by is Ardon Jashari. He might be the third choice center midfielder. I think the ah one thing to watch with Switzerland is they played the 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 against Germany. Super open game. They closed that down with five in the back against Norway. I think that could be a calling card against a team like the better teams here. um And again, it's about protecting Xhaka, but...
00:33:37
Speaker
The front line is where the legs are definitely there to press, and that's going to help them. And that front line is maybe led by Noah Okafor, who's been a solid second striker for leads. He's insanely fast. He's a good presser.
00:33:50
Speaker
The finishing is is maybe coming along a little bit. And then they've got some wing options. Dan Adoy, Ruben Vargas, and Brielle Mbolo is still around here as a classic bruiser nine plan B option.
00:34:02
Speaker
it's It's a decent attacking group. Again, like Adoy and Vargas are... um Good wingers, not Champions League level wingers, but like both good dribblers, both decent creative players, not great finishers, not elite crossers, but like, listen, you see the model for this team. It's you've got guys that can run and press and be good enough in space. And you're it's kind of relying on unconventional creative players further back in the field. Like maybe it's Rodriguez if he plays definitely Chaka and the other midfielder, Froiler, like to, to get the ball in the box. I think,
00:34:41
Speaker
They're in open play, not going to generate a ton of chances against a low block. But in transitional play, if you if you leave space, they'll be very dangerous. And I think set pieces will be a a a very fertile ground for this team to to get chances.
00:34:58
Speaker
Feels like the deliveries are there for the set pieces to be dangerous and the kind of maybe the lack of open opportunities for them, particularly in a high level match. Set pieces can can definitely be a difference maker.
00:35:09
Speaker
Yeah, and Bolo is the type of guy who's a very big, big striker. And then you you look at center back, Akanji, Alvedi, especially both of them. um So it's not the most exciting game style. That's why we kind of said like it's almost a little Italian. It's funny because the forwards are so dynamic, like Okafor and Doi Vargas, fast, exciting players. But like the rest of the team isn't all fast. So it's...
00:35:34
Speaker
It's a weird model. I think they're just going to be very hard to break down. Their defensive stats in qualifying were very, very good. So that might be their calling card to be a little bit more boring, especially if it's not a team like Germany.
00:35:49
Speaker
Also, though, those defensive stats came against Kosovo, Slovenia and whatever Sweden was during qualifying. So you have to kind of have to couch it in that it feels like this is a floor team, right? We are making our floor as high as possible. And in this group, I think that's going really help them because, as you said, it's hard to envision the teams in this group really being able to go at Switzerland and cause them a lot of problems.
Qatar's World Cup Hosting Challenges
00:36:10
Speaker
One of those teams who will try to do that is Qatar.
00:36:13
Speaker
You probably listener know them from hosting and crashing out of the 2022 World Cup group stage. We on this podcast know them from winning back to back Asian cups in 2019 in 2023.
00:36:24
Speaker
And also a pretty underwhelming qualifying campaign. It's their second World Cup appearance. They lost all three games the last time they were here scoring just one goal and conceding seven. Their qualifying campaign was not great. They cruise past Kuwait, India and Afghanistan in the second round.
00:36:40
Speaker
But in the third round, they finished well behind Iran and Uzbekistan for direct qualification and admit they had what can only be classified as a horrendous away record in that third round. They lost 4-1 away to Iran, away to Uzbekistan.
00:36:53
Speaker
three nil away to his backki stand 5-0 away to the UAE, 3-0 away to Kyrgyzstan, and then drew 2-2 with North Korea in Laos. That is one point from their away games in that third round.
00:37:06
Speaker
Those results meant that they had to go to a fourth round, but lucky for them, the Asian gods smiled upon them, and that fourth round was played at home in Qatar, where a 0-0 draw with Omen and a 2-1 win over the UAE was enough for a World Cup spot.
00:37:20
Speaker
I am admit don't think Qatar are the least talented team at this World Cup, but I think you can make a case that based on the qualifying record and results, they might be the most undeserving team here. And in comparison to what we saw with Uzbekistan in an earlier preview, Qatar are here because the World Cup has 48 teams.
00:37:41
Speaker
That's right. They needed the fourth round of qualifying. They got it on home soil. They did not really and like look convincing in getting through the fourth round of qualifying. Honestly, this is the type of team that should have been in the Intercontinental Playoff. yeah um And that instead was...
00:38:00
Speaker
ah rock like ah And I think, like honestly, like the level here is ah Iraq is a much more serious team than Qatar. I'm not going to say better, but like the thing about this team that is so frustrating is that this team has an Asian cup in their belt.
00:38:19
Speaker
They have... they have they are at times good enough on the ball to approximate one of the best teams in Asia. Their qualifying campaign, as we, you and i watched a lot of it, was marred by lack of focus and motivation. They were extremely prone to defensive lapses against teams worse than them. That is not the hallmark of a good team.
00:38:47
Speaker
And it's a like they just don't really have a difference maker outside of their two two guys. And that has been a problem with them. was a problem in 2022. Well, now everyone's four years older and a little bit like looks jaded. like That's the word to describe this team. And it's ah it's a bummer because like they have that home World Cup. Again, they can win an Asian Cup, but it's hard to feel good about anything here.
00:39:15
Speaker
They haven't touched the level that we saw that them winning that Asian cup since that Asian cup. And you know who they brought in to fix it? I mean, it is world cup after dark legend himself. You and Lopetegui, who will be coaching at his first world cup because the last time he tried to coach at the world cup, he got kicked out of his job like three days before it.
00:39:35
Speaker
It just kind of adds to this whole general malaise. Lopetegui took charge of Qatar for those October play playoff matches. It didn't really feel like he brought a lot of system or ideas here.
00:39:47
Speaker
also doesn't really feel like he's that interested in being here. and the moves that he's made have been absolutely fascinating because kind of the biggest decisions that Lopetegui has made... is to call old players out of retirement for one more go. In Sebastian Soria, who was eight years out of the Qatar picture and is now 42 was also born in Uruguay.
00:40:10
Speaker
And Hasan Alhaidos, who retired in 2024 and then came back for Lopetegui. This team is experienced, is a nice way of putting it. The not so nice way of putting it is they are old.
00:40:24
Speaker
it's never a good sign to bring back all these guys. It feels like you're just trying to like keep everyone happy and like maybe like go for nostalgia, which is just like not a good thing on the field. And credit, these guys at one point were all good players. like I think ah a bit better than what the picture is. And I think that is speaks to the development not really coming through for the next generation of of Qatari players, that this is the way to go. And I don't even want to... like blame Lopetegui, but it's it's not it's not good that this is where they're at.
00:40:59
Speaker
What do you make of Lopetegui as a World Cup manager for Qatar in the year 2026? mean, it's...
00:41:06
Speaker
i mean like it's he's He's kind of going to get them to use the ball, and you're hoping it's going to help them unlock Afif and Ali. And I think all of these guys are technically like gifted.
00:41:17
Speaker
but And that's where you're hoping, like, hey, we can we can be a little silky. It's just a tough thing when you have to play... And maybe this group is just soft enough to work.
00:41:29
Speaker
um I think they might they might be dangerous on the ball, but I think defensively, this team is... He is not a defensive manager. he is yeah not going to put in defensive structure. This team isn't going to work defensively. So maybe they're just going all in on, hey...
00:41:44
Speaker
let's Let's try to score two or three with the players we have. And at least, listen, we haven't given Afif and Ali help in the past. This is how we do it. Even the trade even if the trade-off is horrible, like let's not go out being bad, boring soccer. Let's maybe be fun, mediocre enough soccer. like Am I wrong? like That's maybe the Lopetegui case here.
00:42:07
Speaker
Yeah, but it's just, it's hard to buy into that. You mentioned Akam Afif, Almuaz Ali. These are the two best players for Qatar. They have been the two best players for Qatar. They're both 29. They both already have more than a hundred caps. They can both play.
00:42:20
Speaker
Ali got hurt in November, but he's been back for outside. He participated in the March camp. Also, interestingly, Qatar kind of haven't played since October. They had a camp in November. Then they took a strong squad to the Arab Cup and they stunk. They lost to Palestine. They drew Syria and got smoked by a Tunisia B team. They didn't play any friendlies in March because of the war in Iran. So we don't really know if Lopetegui has been like, you know, massaging things to make it look better. I'm going to guess probably not.
00:42:46
Speaker
ah Akram Afif is fun. He's got hair. He's got tricks. He's got bits. It's the whole shebang. He also doesn't really contribute defensively. And so if you're having defensive issues, having Afif and Ali and also these really old guys, perhaps an attack isn't going to fix the picture.
00:43:01
Speaker
The problems here for Qatar are probably what comes in behind. I think Muhammad Wad and Ahmed Fathi are are going to be asked to do a lot in the middle. Really the only interesting young player here is Muhammad Almani, who was named the best U23 player in the Qatari League, had a role in the midfield at the Arab Cup. Again, that Arab Cup didn't go very well for them.
00:43:21
Speaker
The defense is all over the place. I don't know if Lopetegui is going to try to go four or five at the back. A couple of foreign-born ringers, Pedro Miguel, who was born in Spain, and Lucas Mendes, who was born in Brazil.
00:43:32
Speaker
They were at one point marauding fullbacks. admit they're now both 35. Are you sensing the theme here? Homal Ahmed is probably the sure thing in defense. He's the only player in the long list who doesn't play in Qatar.
00:43:44
Speaker
He plays in the Spanish second division with Kulturo Leonesa. I like Mishal Barsham in goal for Al-Assad. He's going to probably be doing a lot here. He's had some some moments in qualifying where he was good. He had some moments in qualifying where he was bad.
00:43:57
Speaker
just really hard to get inspired by anything here other than Akram Afif doing bits. And we've kind of seen the limit of Akram Afif doing bits at this level. it's It's tough to to picture it. I mean, maybe you're... And that's the thing. Even if you play five in the back to try to protect like the structure here, well, then you're really asking a thief and a lead to just like go two on four or five and and get you something. And at this level, that's just not going to like This level of defense is just not going to work.
00:44:29
Speaker
Yeah, and like listen, we don't want to come here and like be super downers about any team, but like this team was bad in qualifying, and again in that fourth round was 0-0 to Oman, 2-1 to UAE. like And those teams also, Oman and UAE, are not good. like We saw them. So like Bosnia, Canada are just...
00:44:56
Speaker
Just enough that you can say like, maybe maybe there's something we're missing here and maybe things go well and they steal stuff. But the models are very down on this team. And you and you know why? It's it's not just a fee it's not a and a league that they're they're down on. It's the profiles of everyone else behind them. And the team rating, like, however you, whatever team model you have that spits out a number for this team, it's not good. So, like, i will you want to talk yourself into how could this team surprise, like, right? And that's where I'm struggling where, like...
00:45:30
Speaker
his His answers for change-ups are 35 and 34-year-olds. Are we missing something? like Are we going to look crazy? Are we going to feel dumb that we missed the guitar thing in plain sight? and i just I really, really tried to be fair, and it's hard. I don't think we're missing it.
00:45:47
Speaker
Yeah, I don't either because we've seen this genre of Asian team before because Asian teams that are best when they play but don't play at a high level generally don't find much success outside of Asia. We've seen it before. We've seen it with Qatar. We've seen it with Saudi Arabia. A lot of the Middle Eastern petro states are kind of the same general vibe of...
00:46:08
Speaker
hey, we're the 40th to 50th best team in the world. We play anybody below us, we're in good shape. You put us in a gold cup and we run up against anything better than El Salvador and things don't go well.
00:46:19
Speaker
Yeah. And again, not even it's ah being fair or not fair. Like, first of all, who cares? we can We can call it like we see it, but we're we are trying to be fair. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are the two closest teams, in my opinion, to them. And they are also being respected as a likely fourth place team in their pod. And maybe Saudi Arabia is a touch better than Cape Verde, but we both got on here and said we like Cape Verde a little better. So like... yeah The ceiling for this level of team, even at best, is try to sneak in in third here and then be a massive, massive underdog in the round of 32.
00:46:51
Speaker
It just feels like they're going to get beat up in the midfield in all three of these games in a way that is just probably going to be too much to come back from. And you're just asking again, Afif and Ali to do everything against teams that are not generally inclined to allow individual players, particularly at the level of Afif and Ali to do everything.
00:47:13
Speaker
right It takes a much higher level of duo to get through the Red Bull press from Canada to break down Bosnia's gum in the midfield and to beat what is, as we've said plenty of times, a solid Switzerland side. So look, let's see for Qatar. Obviously, they have to play the games. They open with Switzerland. They'll play Canada second.
00:47:32
Speaker
They'll probably go into their third game against Bosnia with a chance still to get out of this group. They might need to score a lot of goals to do it. All I'll say is it feel those back-to-back Asian cups feel like a long time ago.
00:47:44
Speaker
The fourth team in this group is Bosnia and Herzegovina. They are as gritty of an Eastern European outfit as you can find. They're making their second World Cup appearance, having qualified for Brazil in 2014.
Bosnia's Resilient Qualifying Journey
00:47:55
Speaker
In qualifying, they were second place in a group behind Austria, but ahead of Romania, Cyprus, and San Marino. That was enough to get them to the European playoffs. And in the playoffs, they followed the same script in both games against Wales and then Italy.
00:48:08
Speaker
They conceded first. They hung around. They scored late. They won in penalties. Ammit, if nothing else, they are resilient. It's a great word to use. I mean, this is a team I think we put as a slight underdog to Wales, and they surprised us twice. And you have to give them credit to that, I think. Yeah.
00:48:29
Speaker
We talk about their qualifying. You said they were they were second behind Austria and Romania, Cyprus, San Marino. I don't know. Do you think they're they're they're better or worse than Czech Republic? like I know that's a completely like irrelevant question, but just on the level while we're talking about them. I think they're better. i have talked myself into Bosnia a little bit here. I liked what I saw in those playoffs.
00:48:51
Speaker
I thought they outplayed Italy for a lot of that second round, that second round game. Yeah, well that's the thing. They were bad in qualifying, but I do think, honestly, after they conceded to Wales, they hung around against Wales well enough. And I do think they did enough against Italy. So like those two games, I was impressed by, but it's hard to sample size that versus everything before.
00:49:12
Speaker
As is so often the case with a lot of these Eastern European teams, um politics and football and sport and geopolitics and regional level politics and ethnicities are all intrinsically linked.
00:49:24
Speaker
That's definitely the case here with Bosnia. You don't have to look any further than their manager, Sergey Barbaras, who is probably the most interesting manager in this tournament. I think it's fair to say had an extensive playing career in the Bundesliga, got his managerial license in January of 2011.
00:49:40
Speaker
But he didn't get a managerial job until he took this job in 2024. The only job he's ever held. And you know what he did for the 13 years in between? amit He played professional poker, obviously. He made the World Series of Poker Final Tables twice. There was a great, great piece on Barbaras in Sports Politico looking at his history, what he is trying to do with this side. He is a beloved figure in Bosnian football.
00:50:04
Speaker
That has even, that has made a big difference that they are here is probably a lot due to him. There's little spending on domestic football. None of the final squad play domestically in Bosnia. 15 plus players in this squad were born outside of Bosnia.
00:50:19
Speaker
They had some federation turmoil. They had four different managers in 2023 alone. But Barbraz is kind of seen as a unifying presence in a country that remains very ethnically divided among Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats 30 years on from their civil war.
00:50:33
Speaker
They have solidity, ait which I think is key for them. But as we'll talk about, there are some interesting players in the attack that could allow them to be more open and maybe even more so in this group.
00:50:46
Speaker
Let's start with the solidity. It's Nikola Vasile in goal. Nikola Katic at Schalke and Tarek Moharevich at South Swallow will play centrally. Whatever is left of San Kolasinac is going to start at left back for Bosnia. Amar Dedic, who's at Benfica, is probably their right back. I think he gives them a little bit in attack at that position and in this group I think they can get away with it there's a lot of midfield grinders here there's Amir Hadzi Aminovic at hole Benjamin Tahirovich at Bronby Amar Aminovic at Victoria Pleasant the base here Amit is made up of grimy mid to mid lower tier European guys who make life hard
00:51:25
Speaker
The best way to put it. And I don't even think that's like a diss. Like, I think it's a compliment, like for the the level here that like, they've got an 11, this competent is like they're, you know, they're very solid organized and they are physical specifically cottage and more more. Amovich at Sassuolo are like, you know, pretty decent center backs. I think.
00:51:49
Speaker
Kolasinac at left back is is going to be a problem that they're going to have to work around. But Amar Detic is a solid player. Gets up and down, I think, as you outlined, kind of their their best chance to like get something going forward from right back.
00:52:02
Speaker
it's It's fine. It's a fine back line. And the midfield, I think, is maybe the weakest out of the three phases here. The defense is solid. I think the attack is intriguing. um It's nothing. These guys are not you know anything special. But they know their role. They're just like going to they're just trying to you know defend, run the ball, not turn it over, try to be safe in possession. don't think there's any great passes here, but at least all of them are okay athletes.
00:52:29
Speaker
um I think it'll be interesting to see. They should be better athletes than Qatar. I think they'll probably be a little worse than Canada and Switzerland, don't think they're going to be played off the pitch. If they are, that's a big problem, but like that's kind of the the model here is that you just muck around enough in the midfield and defense and don't beat yourself.
00:52:48
Speaker
Yeah. So what Barbara is, I think is looking for is you've got a goalkeeper, you've got four defenders and you've got three midfield grinders. So that's eight guys. We got those eight guys that I want to be solid, that I want to make life hard, that I don't want to get beaten easily because my other three guys, I'm probably going to use on some combination of making things interesting. And maybe that's four guys in some matches, but But there is some exciting players that attack. You've got, obviously, Milwaukee Messi, Esmir Baharokhevich, born in Wisconsin, currently at PSV. On the right, you have Karim Aliabegovic. He's 18 years old at Red Bull Salzburg on the left.
00:53:28
Speaker
Those guys can play. And I think this group of it isn't so difficult that they won't be allowed to play. They're 100% going to play. In fact, they're going to be asked a lot of, like you said, I think this whole setup, like they have to create. They need service for the strikers or striker. And I think both of these guys are really intriguing young prospects. Like I think there's a lot of hype around them. They're already at PSV and Salzburg, which are like...
00:53:55
Speaker
launching pads of clubs. Yeah. They have the dribbling creativity, ah the shooting and the final ball is coming. That's why they're young prospects. But like, Hey, if you're going to try things and make things happen, this is your canvas, right? They kind of have a blank space. Like, look,
00:54:13
Speaker
We're going to be as tight as we can behind you. Go make something happen. I think that's very exciting. like Both of these guys are are going to be fun to watch, particularly Alubegovic.
00:54:26
Speaker
Super fun take on artists. like you know Is he the level of an elite winger? No, but like he's trying to get there. So I think that like this is a big audition for these guys and for Bosnia to do something. like It goes through them beating guys off the dribble and putting in crosses and shots. So...
00:54:42
Speaker
I mean, again, this is not like this is not even Switzerland's wingers. like I don't know. Dan and Doy, Ruben Vargas, like proven players. But there's a chance that you could come out of this tournament if Bosnia does anything here being like, those two guys were breakout stars.
00:54:58
Speaker
And I think... Look, we've probably done it a disservice to get this far into the Bosnia preview, having not mentioned Edin Dzeko, right? Which again, shows you World Cup after dark. We're not just taking the easy way out here because the easy way out, I think, is to say, Edin Dzeko is still up there. 148 caps, 73 goals. He's a talisman. As he goes, Bosnia will go. And I don't think that's the case here. Yes, they are counting on Edin Dzeko to whatever is left in his legs, which might not be a lot.
00:55:24
Speaker
get into dangerous spaces and finish the chances that are created. But Edin Dzeko isn't doing things single-handedly at this point in his career. And so I think it's very reductionist to put this down. And I think a lot of people may do this too. Dzeko is the name I recognize. He's the guy here for Bosnia.
00:55:41
Speaker
When I don't think their campaign depends on Dzeko. I think it depends on Bahar Oktevich and Alia Begovich creating things that Dzeko can then finish off. In attack, he's partnered by Aaron Demirovic in March. We'll see if they choose to stick with two strikers because that would then, you know, make the grinders versus interesting players ratio 7-4 rather than 8-3. We'll see.
00:56:02
Speaker
Harst Tabakovic came off the bench in both of those games in March. He scored the equalizer against Italy. Look, Dekko may not be what makes Bosnia go, but he's a very key figure here, and he is a talismanic, generationally good attacking threat that can turn a half chance into a goal, and that, coupled with the exciting wingers, has me intrigued.
00:56:23
Speaker
the The question for him is going to be, can he get on the ends of chances just enough in like the spots where Bosnia attacks? I mean that if they're playing in transition, he's not fast enough to run the channels.
00:56:40
Speaker
But if you he's in the box already and he just kind of can't tie, again, I think you have to expect his work rate. both directions like we talk about defensive work rate is low he's attacking work rate is low he's not like moving off the ball he's good when the ball gets to his feet but if they get him the ball enough in the box and he's already there he's great and if he has a strike partner which i don't think they're going to start with one but if they're down in games they'll call on those guys to help out but Where he can be especially lethal is on set pieces and on recycled play. And when we saw against Italy, when Bosni was chasing the game, when you back that, if you're in a low block trying to sit onto a one goal lead, then he just camps in the box and you can give him service, right?
00:57:26
Speaker
Again, he's not to be good when he's running the channels. But if you if if they're in a scenario where they settle possession for like a minute and then he's in he's walked himself in the box... Yes, he is dangerous. Yes, he can do something. I think you you nailed it perfectly. like It's not how he goes. You kind of know what he's doing. It's how the other two wingers go.
00:57:44
Speaker
Can he steal a goal on a set piece? He 100% did against Wales. That saved their whole qualification. I think you know i don't think they're as good on set pieces as a Switzerland are, but... like It's something that they can try to to to hang their hat on as well.
00:57:59
Speaker
And this Bosnia squad, I think of it, is really interesting because outside of Kolasinac and Dzeko, they trend pretty young. There's a couple of other veteran players. Those are the only two links to that World Cup appearance in 2014 in Brazil. I think that experience is going to be huge here. I think those guys are going to be key for the younger players here.
00:58:19
Speaker
But... I think you can talk yourself into Barbara's kind of building something here for Bosnia that might last longer than just one outlier World Cup appearance.
00:58:31
Speaker
Listen, he's the the poker thing like isn't a joke. He's a very aggressive in-game manager. He is... you know Tactics, X and O's, he's good. He's he's solid.
00:58:42
Speaker
But in terms of game state management and like game theory type stuff, he is very aggressive with his subs and he knows when to bring on second strikers, when to change the way his team plays, how to move those pieces to get the wingers in dangerous spots. Like...
00:58:58
Speaker
Again, he's not going to elevate this team like two levels above where they are. But can he just grease it like just a little bit, 5%, 10% better than what they're getting? He's absolutely that kind of manager. And I think he has acquitted himself very well in the European playoff.
00:59:14
Speaker
um So there is some of that where like he's he's got he's got them at a very tough level to beat. And you look at this group and you say...
00:59:27
Speaker
There's opportunity here for Bosnia. You wouldn't come out of this, I think, stunned to see Bosnia finish second here ahead of Canada or even, you know, first if things break right. Like they can finish first on five points or something weird like that. I think the opportunities are here.
00:59:41
Speaker
I maybe it might be like 18 months too soon for these young attacking players, but I am intrigued. I am willing to give Bosnia the benefit of doubt that they're going be something more than just a very stereotypical mid-European greaseball side that's going to look to... They're going to do a lot of that.
00:59:59
Speaker
ah Don't get me wrong. I'm fully expecting Bosnia to play some of that game. i think there's enough in a tag that this could get very interesting. All right, one game to watch from this group. Did I talk you into putting Bosnia on your list?
01:00:11
Speaker
I mean, i was going to go Switzerland, Canada, but I now want it to be Bosnia, Canada. i amm in I mean, Switzerland, Canada could be an important game. to me, I really want to know if Marsh's Canada project is ready for to to take the leap in terms of the athleticism.
01:00:28
Speaker
Listen. I mean, I think either Bosnia or Switzerland is a fair like measuring stick. yeah like Bosnia is just dangerous and unkillable enough and savvy enough that, like, that's a tough question. Do do I think Canada is better than Bosnia? i think I think a little, but I think that's a tough game, and that's fascinating. So they're...
01:00:51
Speaker
I don't think Marsh is taking Bosnia lightly. Like I actually think that is a very big game circled on both teams' calendars. um it's going to be It's going to be interesting. um Is Dzeko the type of striker that you profile to make the Canadian center back struggle? No, but are those wingers? Yes, maybe. And so that's the type of game where it's savvy and new versus and tactics like from a good manager versus like athletes. So could be could be a really fun matchup.
01:01:20
Speaker
Also World Cup opener in Canada. There's going to be a lot of pageantry around that. It's the first game. It's in Toronto. There's long travel after it. It kind of feels like Bosnia just played that game twice, right? It kind of feels like they're just what we did in the World Cup playoff. You just run that back because it's kind of the same setup. It's a big moment. They are underdogs, but not necessarily out of the match. I think that's a really good game to open the World Cup.
01:01:47
Speaker
I think, as you said, Canada, Switzerland is a potentially big game, particularly if both those teams manage to go 6-6. That's going to determine who ends up in in in what route. ah Bosnia, Qatar, can I get you interested?
01:02:01
Speaker
i want to be, but I'll see i'll believe this Qatar team brings entertainment when I see it. But like, i don't know, that could be like 5-2. That could be an Enyan Jekko hat trick. Like that's not off the cards in that game. Look, I told you at the start of the show that we were going to finish this show and be absolutely amped for this group. And that's where we are. We've talked ourselves into this group somehow being interesting. Before we close a bit, talk to me about the numbers here. You kind of alluded to it. The numbers really don't like Qatar and the numbers kind of like Bosnia to advance. And also you may have discovered that the numbers are are playing us for fools when it comes to third place teams.
01:02:37
Speaker
Yeah, I think there's 12 third place teams. They all can't get through and more than eight of them have minus money to advance. So they're stealing. They're stealing value on on the public, which, you know, you can talk yourself into a lot of the third place teams getting through, but they they all can't. Anyways, I don't think Bosnia is one of the eight best third place teams here. but they are favored at minus 240 to advance. And that is because i think the models thinks Canada and Switzerland are weak enough that they could steal points. And the models really do not like Qatar at plus 210 to get out of this group. That is one of the lower chances for a fourth pot team. I think some of the more competitive teams you're seeing and the more...
01:03:17
Speaker
40 to 50% range, 35% range. This is more down toward the 20, 25% range for Qatar. So that's not what you want. um switzerland And in a group that's as weak as this is, that is really damning.
01:03:31
Speaker
Yeah, they're basically telling you that Switzerland, Canada, and Bosnia really shouldn't have trouble. I'm a bit surprised, but I mean, again, the bottles of Qatar, you can understand from club perspective and team strength perspective, very poor. Switzerland, very heavily favored to advance around 18 to 1. That's over 90% about really close. Canada, minus 750 to advance. I mean, you might say that's a little high, but...
01:03:56
Speaker
you know, the home field advantage. And again, the starting 11 is there. So interesting. um It thinks that Switzerland, Canada to go through as the top two is minus 120. um After listening to this whole podcast, you might think that's good value. You might think that's bad value. I think Bosnia is an interesting foil. So.
01:04:14
Speaker
That's, um I think, ah certainly an interesting one. And then, listen, I think you heard us a Switzerland preview. You remember where they went out every round. You look at the schedule this time. Switzerland's stage of elimination to go out in the round of 16 is plus 180. Look, they could go short of that. They could go past that.
01:04:30
Speaker
But that feels like OK value you for the exact bell curve for the Switzerland team. Yeah, plus money for the bell curve result. Well, you know, your mileage may vary, but ah value certainly looks at that. ah This is just the latest in a long series of World Cup group previews that we have here on the World Cup After Dark podcast. If you want to find all of those previews, you can do so obviously by just searching the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you you get your podcasts.
01:04:54
Speaker
Or you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD, where our World Cup preview hub has links to all of our World Cup preview content. And while you're at patreon.com slash WCAV, if you would like to support us, you can do so by making a $3 a month donation, which gets you access to subscriber only content and helps support us doing what we are doing. We'll be back. We still got more groups to get through. Amit and I will be back for more. We'll be back during the tournament. Still plenty to come from the World Cup after dark, but that is all from us today.
01:05:24
Speaker
And we will talk to you guys soon. Take care.