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WCAD 4-7: USMNT, Group D Preview with The Athletic's Henry Bushnell
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Austin & Amit welcome Henry Bushnell back to the show to preview the USMNT and Group D. The guys discuss whether this US team can meet the moment, and exceed the traditional bell curve result. Then, they tackle the dark arts of Gustavo Alfaro's Paraguay, an Australia side that feel out of place in Asia but right at home at the World Cup, and a Turkey team that make this one of the most wide-open groups of the tournament.
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:01
Speaker
If you listen closely, you can hear it. That's a bell ringing in the background, Amit. And no, Zuzu, it's not Clarence getting his wings from It's a Wonderful Life.
US Men's National Team Hosting Impact
00:00:11
Speaker
It's the bell curve show.
00:00:13
Speaker
And on the World Cup After Dark podcast, a major tournament for the U.S. men's national team. Amit, there's only one way we can approach this. Feels like we've done this podcast how many times? Four or five? If you consider some some other non-World Cup tournaments we've done. And here we are, the United States Men's National Team. They're hosting. Does that affect the
Previewing Group D
00:00:32
Speaker
bell curve? Tune in to find out. This is one of the favorite shows we we love to do every time.
00:00:37
Speaker
This is the Group D preview podcast here on the World Cup After Dark. That that you just heard from was Amit Malik. My name is Austin Miller. In a second, we will be joined by Henry Bushnell of The Athletic. We're going to talk big U.S. s men's national team. Obviously, as a host, they're a major storyline at this World Cup.
00:00:52
Speaker
Obviously, as three Americans talking on this podcast, they're a big story on this World Cup. We're also going to break down Paraguay, Australia and Turkey. And what is, I think, Amit, a really interesting group because and we've talked about this a lot. The three groups that contain the hosts don't have a strong team at the
US Team Expectations and Readiness
00:01:09
Speaker
top. And so what that means is it's kind of wide open and we'll get to it at the very end of the show.
00:01:15
Speaker
The numbers suggest that and the metrics play that out. Right. And also the kind of hosts have soft draws. So the race for the top is wide open. the The hosts are hoping they can make a run, but there's some jockeying to be had there. And that I think you're going to see that in this group.
00:01:33
Speaker
He's one of our favorite guests, as I mentioned, from The Athletic. It is Henry Bushnell. Henry, you've earned the nickname on this show of Big Ticket because of all of the ticket stuff you've been doing with the World Cup. Are you happy to get to talk a little football here?
00:01:47
Speaker
Yes, definitely. Yeah, the the ticket stuff has cooled off, which I'm actually glad about. I'm i i'm feeling a bit, not a bit, I'm feeling ready for the actual World Cup. You, Amit, me, and everybody else are in that boat. We're ready to get a ball rolling. we're ready to put goals on the board. We're looking forward to it. So for eight years, this World Cup has been the North Star of of American soccer. From the U.S. missing the World Cup in 2018, from various iterations of the Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Nations League, from a disappointing run at the Copa America in 2024, a World Cup exit right kind of where you expected in 2022,
00:02:25
Speaker
Everything Henry has built towards this, there have been ups, there have been downs. We've chronicled them on this podcast. It's not necessary for us to go and re-litigate all of that in detail. I think the best place to start is to simply ask you the question, is the U.S. ready for this?
Past Performances and Future Potential
00:02:45
Speaker
Maybe would be be the short answer. What I'd say in terms of like how you set that all up is they are not, a they are not, if you want to use the word ready, they are not as ready as we hoped they would be. They are not in the spot that,
00:03:02
Speaker
Well, you know, eight years ago, who who the heck knew what what what the team was going to look like? But four years ago, and frankly, even two years ago, um they're not where a lot of people hoped they would be.
00:03:13
Speaker
But what I would say is they can still get there. Like, I do think this team still has a high ceiling when you look at the players on paper. And yes, you know, in March, they got beaten by multiple goals by both Belgium and Portugal.
00:03:29
Speaker
But that Belgium game very like it unraveled in the second half and very easily could have gone differently. And I thought they were, if not the better team, at least even in the first half. um So like they can still. and so they they haven't beat a big time team in such a long time.
00:03:47
Speaker
But that doesn't mean they can't do it. Right. And so that's kind of where I'm at. I still think like they have that potential. Maybe I'm delusional for believing that, but but I still think it's there. So Amit, we talked about the ups. We talked about the downs. And this was a point that I think you and I made time and time again on this show as it relates to the World Cup.
00:04:06
Speaker
Everything that we talked about in that period that Henry and I kind of alluded to there Can matter or it can't matter. And it's kind of time for us to find out now, did it matter or did it not matter? Because if the U S comes out and on June 12th, they play Paraguay off the pitch and they win in three nil and it starts this miracle world cup run, this long world cup run that captures the heart and soul of the country. None of that matters whatsoever. Nobody cares that the U.S. looked bad against Panama in a gold cup. Nobody cares what happened against Uruguay in a gold cup.
00:04:41
Speaker
And that is what makes this such a unique opportunity. But also, and you and I have talked about this as well, it feels like all of that should matter based on how we read what is international football in this day and age.
Group D Analysis and Dynamics
00:04:57
Speaker
we're the first guys to to use context and to take a holistic picture of it. But our long history of watching international football would say that the World Cup, a major tournament, can be a great equalizer to this idea that we're talking about that you could kind of throw some stuff out the door and that the environment, the context of a world cup is very specific and things can gel at right time. And there's a few things there that are adding to this being a chance for the United States, I think to get over that hump. That's what we're here to talk about. Can they? And, um,
00:05:33
Speaker
One thing is, this is very specific, the red card that Tim Weah picked up at the Copa America was a really weird data point um to kind of throw that throw throw some of that game against Panama, make it tough to read.
00:05:50
Speaker
that changes everything. but That's one minor point in that we could have had a better reading on this team in this scenario in an hour game. Two is um the the managerial change. And we've seen a short amount of time with Pochettino. The Gold Cup was not his A-team.
00:06:08
Speaker
um He did fine. He has had moments where it's looked like he is a club football guy a little bit out of his depth here. And there are moments where you can see the top level tactics work.
00:06:23
Speaker
So I think there's some unknowns that could gel. And the last thing I'll add before we keep going on it is that this men's national team, this generation of the United States men's national team, has always kind of gotten up for the the big games, the big moments, the big stage, and been a little bit disinterested outside of that.
00:06:43
Speaker
And there is no big moment. There is no big stage that is bigger than the World Cup. And Henry, maybe in contrast to some other national teams that that they come into camp and they're always buying in, they're always into it. That hasn't always been the case with the US. And I think with this group in particular, this buildup has felt disjointed because of that. Again, as Amit said, they had a major-ish tournament last summer and they just didn't bring any of their good players in. They had a friendlies that you mentioned in March where things just didn't go well.
00:07:12
Speaker
but it does feel like this time around, if the commitment's not there, that's going to be a big, big problem because if you can't get up for a home world cup, you can't get up for anything. Yeah. And I, I don't think it's going to be a problem. Like, and we, we saw this last cycle, like they looked disinterested in the, the camp, right. You know, if two and a half months before the world cup, and then they came to the world cup and like that that first half against Wales, like they were firing, like it it was great.
00:07:39
Speaker
Um, And I also just think there's something you know something about this this this cycle without qualifying. like It just got boring, man. And it's hard to – when you're playing club games week after week that matter and with you know energetic atmospheres and real stakes – And then you come in and even the CONCACAF games, like, yes, they matter in theory, but they're playing the same teams, both in friendlies and in real tournaments over and over again. They had beaten Mexico. They had won three straight nations leagues. Like at some point it just like, I don't know. I almost don't like, I,
00:08:19
Speaker
i um I feel like I shouldn't be saying this, but I almost don't fault the players for like maybe losing their edge a bit.
US Team's Managerial and Tactical Challenges
00:08:24
Speaker
So I will say I'm very much looking forward. The World Cup is going to feel like almost like whiplash in that just like such a step up in terms of the tension in the games and how much they'll matter, even if the atmospheres aren't great because the stadiums are full full of a bunch of rich people. Like, the...
00:08:43
Speaker
It's going to feel like it matters, and like that has an impact on players. So like I'm not worried about that at all. I wanted to touch on that Belgium game again, that first half. There is proof of concept for this system, for this energy, that when they are committed to the style, they absolutely can like get after a top team at that level. And I think that is why, Henry, I hear you saying you have some belief and why I think there there should be some... Let's get into the nitty gritty here. This is the 11th World Cup appearance for the us it Their second time hosting, of course, after 1994. Their best finish was that quarterfinal run in Japan and South Korea in 2002.
00:09:18
Speaker
Since then, they've made three appearances in the round of 16. That sandwiches their miss in 2018. No qualifying, as we said. We have the results ah at the Copa America 2024 and the Gold Cup 2025. We mentioned it a little bit. They were out in the group stage at the Copa America with what was probably their A squad. At the Gold Cup, they lost to Mexico in the final with what was a B squad.
00:09:39
Speaker
Up and down friendly results. They beat New Uruguay. They beat Paraguay in Australia, two of the teams they share this group with. They lost to to South Korea. And then, as as you mentioned, in March, they got beat handily by Belgium and Portugal, at least on the final scoreline.
00:09:51
Speaker
And admit it's Mauricio Pochettino here who is the manager. He is a club football ringer over chief for years at Spurs. Okay. Runs with PSG and Chelsea. Nothing spectacular. When this job opened up, he was the best name for the job credit to the Federation for getting him, but he is a club manager who is managing international football He's an expert tactician. He's an underrated band manager.
00:10:16
Speaker
But the lack of time that he has had this with this team and will have his really first extended stretch with them at this World Cup, I think has left some people concerned about how they're going to show up for this World Cup and what that's actually going to look like under Pochettino. And there's also been some questioning of does he really get what this job in particular means? I think they're all fair questions to ask of him. And you've definitely seen at the start of the tenure, him kind of have that adjustment curve to the United States media landscape, to the United States soccer landscape, where, as Henry said, his players are caring about their clubs and they have to come back over and there's less interest and there's less time to build to a system. he is a he is a system manager. That's what helped him succeed so well at his club stops.
00:11:12
Speaker
Can he do this in a short amount of time is ah is is a very big question. i am encouraged by so some of what we saw in the late friendlies. I think there's a lot of pressure on him. I think as a manager, he kind of has a lot riding on this. Not that if he doesn't do well, no one's going to think he's bad, but he's god he's got a reputation. He could have taken a different job. He could have went to a better team. This is not a top five, six, seven team in the world. He's trying to get a team ah on the fringe of the top 10 to lofty expectations of quarterfinals, of semifinals.
00:11:48
Speaker
I think there's a lot riding on his management and getting a lot out of this team to be to be better than it was. Berhalter was fine. He was the bell curve guy. i think you're you're counting on Pochettino to work some of his magic as built into the expectations.
00:12:04
Speaker
Henry, it's it's a unique situation here. Yeah, and I mean, and for me, it goes back to the question of just like, do managers matter that much? and Great question. And I think we're going to find out that maybe they don't matter that much. At least just that it's not that much of ah as as much of an upgrade as people think.
00:12:29
Speaker
I think there's some truth to that. What's interesting is i think he can get them playing a style that looks a little bit different and feels a little bit different than what Berhalter did.
00:12:40
Speaker
But what he has, Berhalter has, what any player would have is managing can't overcome talent. And the United States are very talented as we talk about the team in a lot of spots. And they have some clear limitations in a few spots, like 90% of the teams in this tournament.
00:12:58
Speaker
So it's a talking circle. I think it does matter, but I agree. Like at a certain point, this team is going to run out there and play hard and it's on the players to, to execute, to score goals, the whole leads, if they're going to get to where they want to go. And the players like speak highly of him. Like I would, I was talking to Tim Ream earlier this week and he like raved about like Pochettino's tactical flexibility.
00:13:20
Speaker
And like, he's, he's telling me like, I wish I had this type of manager earlier in my career. I've learned so much from him, yada, yada. yada But in the end, as you said, like, they're still extremely thin at center back. I think they're thin in central midfield.
00:13:34
Speaker
They have a goalkeeper who is maybe an above average MLS goalkeeper. um And every time I watch him, I feel like he looks shaky. And look, as we as you said, there's a chance that they get around all of that and none of it matters at at this tournament. There's also a pretty darn good chance that it does matter and it costs you a game in the round of 32 or round of 16 or whatever.
00:13:57
Speaker
So briefly walk me through the style here a bit. What is the needle that Pochettino is trying to thread with this team with the pieces that he has? i think flexibility is a good part of describing the style and the approach. Like this team His calling card is its athletes in the midfield, on the wings, up top, a lot of guys that can run. Pochettino wants to press. He wants to create semi-transition for his best attackers. You're thinking about Balogun, Pulisic, even Jedi Robinson on the left, getting them in space and kind of funneling shots towards the middle.
00:14:35
Speaker
The issue is his defense is... Center back is thin. And so he is a very smart manager. He said he's flexible. He's trying to balance the protection of the back line, even his his goalkeeper, with his athletes and how coordinated that press can be.
00:14:51
Speaker
He does a lot of interesting stuff in buildup to kind of free these moments of transition. I think when you when you watch them at a granular level, it's it's very good. um But
US Team's Playing Style Evolution
00:15:01
Speaker
he's he's not as structured and rigid as maybe Greg was in his positional style.
00:15:07
Speaker
It's a lot more about ah introducing a little bit more chaos for the attackers. It looks like you turn on a Premier League game, kind of the meta of of the league. you know You're trying to compress space. You're trying to aggressively mark. You're trying to get attackers free. um It works when you have good athletes. So I think this team fits the style well.
00:15:27
Speaker
But when the execution of the press falls off even 10%, as you saw against a team like Belgium, a team like Portugal, they get absolutely shredded. And so can he get them at that level? Because if not, this United States team will just be like every United States team before it, and that its best chance is just to bunker and grime, which I think it can be better than that.
00:15:47
Speaker
And that's like that's a great way of explaining to people how this team will look different than the team they saw four years ago. Because if you remember the team four years ago at the World Cup, they were really good defensively during the group stage. And they got and yes, they got undone by the Netherlands like on ah in a few moments in the in the knockout round, but they were one of the best teams at that World Cup defensively in the group stage.
00:16:07
Speaker
um And that was largely because of the way they played and not really taking chances in transition and and stuff like that. So ah that that is likely how it's going to look different, unless Pochettino just throws all that out the window and comes at the World Cup in in a different way. You know, like this group of players is never going to have played before as a starting XI, and he experimented in in March even. So we still are not 100% sure what this team is going to look like.
00:16:32
Speaker
One thing about Berhalter's style of play and used in putting in air quotes positional is having a good rest offense before you do anything. That's why the defense is so good. Pochettino wants chaos, wants to create chances. I think one of the reasons you look at this roster and think you can play that way is a guy like Tyler Adams, who, who is built to play a more chaotic pressing game. And then a guy like Anthony Robinson, who is a super athletic fullback on the left wing that is built to play that way. You add in ah a Pulisic and an Aronson, a Tillman and Balogun.
00:17:09
Speaker
All of those guys, I think, thrive in that style. Even McKinney to an extent, who is a pretty good athlete. That's why you think you can do this. It's going to be higher risk than it was.
00:17:21
Speaker
Henry, every time we've had you on the show, I feel like I've asked you some version of this question. But when Amit and I refer back to our beloved bell curve, right? What we're talking about is the U.S. has a tendency to meet expectations. They generally don't fall short of expectations. They generally don't exceed expectations. As I
Expectations for US Team's World Cup Performance
00:17:41
Speaker
said in the intro there, they haven't made it past the round of 16 at the World Cup since 2002. They also, other than 2018 missing it, and then their Copa America in 2024, they haven't really fallen below expectations and crashed out beforehand. So for you, is there any reason that the expectations, or to put it in World Cup After Dark terms, the bell curve result of this tournament should be anything other than an appearance in the round of 16, a matchup against a team that is better than them, and a, see what happens. It's international football in the knockout round. That is, no, that's it. that's the that That is the expectation again, I think.
00:18:15
Speaker
What I would say is i think the bell the bell is wider and stockier than in the past. Like, I think there is actually a greater, there's not necessarily a greater chance that they crash out in the group than previously, obviously, because of the different um because of the different structure of the the tournament this year.
00:18:36
Speaker
But this group is pretty darn balanced. And I think there's a greater chance than people realize that they do crash out. I also think in part based on the way the knockout bracket potentially lines up, that there is a better chance. They they have a better chance to win the round of 16 game. If they get there this year, then they did in the past, I think, because there's a chance that, i mean,
00:19:01
Speaker
I think Belgium would be a stronger than average opponent based on all of the possibilities. Like there's a, there's a decent chance that that team is not that good. I also think there's just a decent chance that the knockout bracket at this world cup in general gets kind of chaotic, right? With all the different permutations. So I think there's a, I think a quarterfinal is, would not be a quarterfinal would not be like a shocking is, is what I would, is what I would say. A semifinal
Group D Competitors and US Strategy
00:19:28
Speaker
would be a quarterfinal. No.
00:19:31
Speaker
ah The third place picker wheel has been the term that we've coined on this podcast, Henry, to describe that ah that opportunity of that. So bit let's let's tackle those things. Let's tackle those two points here that Henry made, and and then let's get into the squad itself. So the first point is the group itself, right? And so this World Cup draw ceremony happened in December. The U.S. got their group, and the first initial reaction, and a lot of it came from Alexi Lawless, who had the chance to be the first person to react to this group on live television, was this group is a gift. for the United States men's national team. This is as easy as they could have hoped for. This is everything.
00:20:04
Speaker
Since then, this group has gotten a little bit more difficult by the arrival of Turkey. Again, that team could have been significantly worse than Turkey. It's not. And I think we've come to realize that, okay, maybe the U.S. doesn't have a strong team from POT2. Maybe it's not the best group that they could have been drawn into, most difficult group.
00:20:23
Speaker
But this group, especially when you juxtapose it against other groups in this World Cup, lacks a bottom feeder. There is no team that you look at in this group and you say, that's going to be three points. If it's not three points, things are some sort of a disaster. Right.
00:20:40
Speaker
Paraguay, Australia and Turkey are all teams that you don't have to squint very hard to see them taking a point off the U.S. and you don't have to squint very hard to see them beating the U.S. And that means that this is a group that, yes, provides a lot of opportunity, but it also comes with some risk.
00:20:58
Speaker
I think we' both you guys have both hit on it. like There is much more variability of the United States possibly getting bounced in the group stage. there It's kind of like two pot two, two pot three-ish teams. like I think we're we're right here that all three teams could get points off the US. It's tricky.
00:21:18
Speaker
That being said, I i hate to to agree with with Alexi Lawson. I would agree with him 100% that it's a ah dream. But when you are the Pot 1 team, you don't have to play any other of the Pot 1 teams. and That is a boon for this United States team. We're going to talk about Turkey. I think that's a very fascinating team. i think the United States is going to be favored in all three games. and I think in...
00:21:43
Speaker
almost all the other groups outside of the other host groups that would not be the case, right? Maybe you could say Canada or Mexico's group would be a little bit better. But outside of that, like...
00:21:55
Speaker
Okay, belg Belgium's group is is good too, but if the United States wasn't a pot one team and was in that group, I think you'd have to play a team like Belgium. That is a good ramp up for the United States to to win this group because it's not just getting through in second, which has often been the thing that sets up the United States for the round of 16 game where they are an underdog.
00:22:17
Speaker
Yes, because of the expanded format, they might still be there, but they should get through first year. They should have a winnable round of 32 game. And crucially, like one thing in the bell curve, we we all acknowledge this. That round of 32 game is not a given.
00:22:31
Speaker
Like you have to win that game. I think for the expectations, I think at this point, it will be a disappointment if they don't, they should win this group. They should be favored. And that is pressure. I think on the United States, I think Alexi Wallace is a little bit right. That like,
00:22:47
Speaker
It couldn't have really gone any better. And then the second point that Henry made there, Amit, is the draw itself going forward. So if the U.S. or whoever wins this Group D, they will play a team from that third-place picker wheel in Santa Clara. And if they win that game, their round of 16 matchup is against the winner of Group G, which, as you said, is Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, and Egypt, or a third-place team.
00:23:12
Speaker
That, as far as round of 16 matchups go, is about as good of a round of 16 matchups the U.S. has had in quite some time. Yeah.
00:23:23
Speaker
we'll deal with the quarterfinals if they get there but the path to the quarterfinal for the group winner not as hard as it could be the runner- up meanwhile will play the runner up of that belgian group that's belgium iran new zealand and egypt again in arlington with the winner of group j which is the argentina group and the runner- up of group h that's the game that amit and i have mentioned no less than seventy hundred times on this podcast so far beating the matchup in the round of 16, while the winner of group B Canada and the winner of group K, which is the English group are also in the quadrant.
00:23:52
Speaker
Henry, it feels like there's some motivation here to win the group because if quarterfinals is the high level possibility here, I would much rather take my chance at making the quarterfinals by beating a third place team and then beating probably Belgium than I would having to beat, okay, maybe it's Iran. Maybe it's, man, imagine the political ramification of that game, but maybe it's New Zealand, maybe it's Egypt.
00:24:16
Speaker
And then, ah, yes, it's defending World Cup champions Argentina, probably sitting in the round of sixty Exactly. And you get to stay on the West Coast if you top the group. like There are all these these benefits to it. They'll stay at their base camp.
00:24:29
Speaker
like I absolutely think there's ah they'll go for the top of the group and there's there's every possibility that they do it. yeah Amit, the quarterfinal path?
00:24:40
Speaker
I feel pretty good about it. I mean... I think it's almost fitting that Belgium is the team that could be the round of 16 opponent for them. The most likely of a pot one teams, right? Yeah. And we saw that game. We saw that game in 2014 and there's the, you know, it's kind of poetic getting that way.
00:25:02
Speaker
Um, I think there's a few Belgian players left over. Not sure if there's any United player, United States players left over, but, um, I it's broken out. Well, it's, there's a lot of reasons to buy the, the quarter final stock. There's a lot of reasons.
00:25:20
Speaker
The boxes are checked for the, this team to be, uh, I won't say it. I won't say it. Let's go to the stable. He's picking out a dark horse. Oh no. You it can't be your dark
US Team's Midfield and Defensive Concerns
00:25:31
Speaker
horse of it. That's not how this bit works. Let's talk about the nitty gritty of this team. So the midfield, it feels like Henry is one of, if not the strongest spots here. Who are we looking at to be the biggest contributors to that?
00:25:46
Speaker
Yeah, and especially the attacking half of the midfield, I would say. um You have Tyler Adams at the base of it, and then you have Weston McKinney who can kind of do anything, and then you have some guys who are skilled on the ball. So if you want to include Christian Pulisic as a midfielder, he's going to play in the the pocket. But more so, you know, Malik Tillman might start. He's fallen off a bit at Leverkusen. I'm not actually sure he's going to start, but maybe with the way the roster is shaken out, he actually he actually will.
00:26:13
Speaker
And then you even, ah you know, Brendan Aaronson starting every week in the Premier League and probably isn't going to be able to even touch the starting lineup for this team. um but But we'll be able to play off the bench, especially in games where they're winning, I would say, as kind of like a closed games out midfielder. You have Gio Reyna coming off the bench as a the opposite, basically. um that they those Those guys are pretty darn opposite soccer players in a lot of ways.
00:26:37
Speaker
um and But I think there are questions. They're thin at the base of midfield. um And like let's say that Tyler Adams either were to get injured, which has happened a lot throughout his career, or were to get yellow cards, which also has happened a decent amount ah throughout his career.
00:26:57
Speaker
And without Tanner Tessman on the roster, who else is there? Who else is playing at the base midfield? Are you really going to throw Christian Roldan into a key World Cup game? I love him as a player. I love him as a person. But he hasn't played outside of MLS his whole career.
00:27:11
Speaker
um And then Seb Berhalter is really the only other other guy there. So I think midfield is the strength until something happens. If midfield is the strength, Amit, defense might be the key for this team?
00:27:28
Speaker
I think so. I think defense is a central defense is the biggest weakness. It's a thin spot. It's a thin pool. You've got Chris Richards. He's great.
00:27:39
Speaker
And he in late May um in the second to last week of the premier season hurt his ankle a little bit. And so. the The England press reported the word terror. It's a sprain, sprain and terror, the same kind of medically. He should be fine to play in Palace's Conference League final, should be fine at the World Cup. They need him.
00:27:59
Speaker
He is so crucial. He's so much better than everyone else. Great athletic, physical center back, set piece monster as well, can kind of handle a high event style because of you know his his qualities.
00:28:13
Speaker
Um, then you've got a bunch of guys that you're hoping can play probably in a back three is what we've seen Pochettino do. We know he's flexible. He could play a back four. The issue is all of these players are not quite good enough. I think to hang in a back four, that is Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie, Austin trustee, maybe miles Robinson.
00:28:38
Speaker
What do you see with those guys? Go ahead, Henry. I just think it's a fascinating question of who you start because it's like, do you, because you have, because you're weak at center back, do you need an extra center back on the field to make up for that?
00:28:50
Speaker
Or do you want to get your best guys on the field and therefore not play as many center backs? And I don't know what the answer is going to be. They tried the latter in March and it didn't work out very well. And they clearly got exposed by playing two you know, both fullbacks were flying up and down the field and they were dropping a midfielder between the center backs to get to kind of their buildup shape.
00:29:10
Speaker
And just the, the rotations did not work. Um, and But then again, like it it would be, look, Tim Ream is not what he once was. And I'm not a Miles Robinson believer. I do kind of like my Mark McKenzie, but Is he really going to start ah a World Cup game against, you know, especially like Turkey?
00:29:33
Speaker
I don't know. ah but but But that might be the best way. or Or does Alex Freeman, is Alex Freeman in that spot? Or even Joe Scali? I would honestly trust Joe Scali more than I would anybody else, but I'm not sure Pochettino does.
00:29:45
Speaker
ah So it's ah it's a fascinating decision on what that back three or four is going to look like. I don't know if we know it's, it's going to maybe adjust to a opponent. Maybe it depends how good the press in front of it looks.
00:29:59
Speaker
Tim Ream is, is actually a very good passer, even if he's slow and that's where he can get exposed. I think McKenzie is kind of good at everything and why I think he should be the guy, but he hasn't quite taken off. Like if he was as good as maybe you or I, or anyone thinks he is, he should be.
00:30:19
Speaker
be playing better, more minutes somewhere better. And he's, he's not. So I don't know. The good news is the fullbacks, at least on the left side, you have Robinson. We've talked about him. um Yes. He can get exposed when he's the wingback and you're asking him to do so much attacking in a four. I think he, he can, doesn't have to do as much, but his attacking is just important as a defending the right side. You've got a lot of options. um I don't know who you think is the first choice starter here. Is it way? Is it desk? Is this Scali Freeman? Like, whoa, depends on the game, maybe.
00:30:51
Speaker
Yeah, definitely it definitely depends on the game. I think there is a way to get all three of Weah, Dest, and Robinson on the field, but that requires some tweaking of things. you know, they certainly, they I'm not, I don't think they've done that before.
00:31:06
Speaker
ah So yeah, it goes back to the point we made at the beginning. Like, we're just, we're still not sure. You know, we we know what each of these individual players is, but we're not sure what it's going to look like on the field. Yeah. And another question before we kind of move to the strikers is what is Weston McKinney's role?
00:31:23
Speaker
And I think counting guys, if it's five in the back and then Adams, McKinney, Pulisic and a striker that leaves one more spot, is that for ah a way a desk to get both or is that a Tillman Aronson spot? Yeah.
00:31:40
Speaker
Right. it's ah It's a really... do we do we Does anyone know? do you Do you have an idea? What do you think? No, we don't. And the omission of Tanner Tessman from this roster changes the calculus in my head.
00:31:51
Speaker
I thought it was going to be Tessman and Adams at the base of midfield and then McKinney ahead of them in kind of like a free roll. So you would have had maybe three center backs,
00:32:03
Speaker
you know, either Dest or Way on the right wing, Robinson on the left wing, wing backs, obviously, Tessman, Adams, and then McKinney and Pulisic ahead of them, kind of in like the playing in the pockets and then Valigan up top. I thought that's what it was going to be. Without Tessman, I think that means McKinney is, again, unless you're starting Christian Roldan or Seth Berhalter in the 11, McKinney is, you know, back further next to next to adams I think that's what we're going to see at least to start. And then we'll kind of freelance from there. It's really interesting for Progetino to try to find out. I think it's a very actually a fascinating team tactically. There's a lot of pressure on him. I know
US Team's Key Players and Roles
00:32:42
Speaker
i do think, you know, the limitations are, but there's a lot of questions there. Strikers, we kind of know what we're getting from these three guys.
00:32:49
Speaker
Yeah. Ballo is a starter. I think that's pretty clear. he is not an incredible finisher or like, you know, dribbler or anything like that, but his off ball movement is so good. And like, I think we saw in the fall how, when he finally got his first minute to under Pochettino, he kind of changed like, like their turnaround in the fall coincided with him coming back into the team.
00:33:14
Speaker
And I don't think that was, look, and part of it is coincidental, but I don't think it's totally a coincidence. um I think, He is what kind of like, and he gives ballistic options when ballistic gets on the ball. He works. I think he and McKinney can work well off each other. So he's pretty clearly the starter. And then I think.
00:33:32
Speaker
Pepe and Wright are both like different types of options off the bench. So I think you have a good a good rotation there. i got two questions here before we move on to the other teams in this group. And this has been a good discussion. I think people want to hear about the United States men's national team. Number one is, what is Gio Reyna right now?
00:33:50
Speaker
What is the expectations for him? like Can he be useful? i have no idea what to expect. You think I know what to expect? LAUGHTER I guess that's the answer, right? That's the I have no clue. No, i've I have no clue. And i yeah I just don't know.
00:34:10
Speaker
it's It's just, it's all theoretical, right? Like we of course haven't seen it. Like even, even when he came in in November and scored against Paraguay, right? Like that isn't what Gio Reyna is. Like getting in the box and scoring headers. Like that wasn't evidence that, oh, he's back. Like this is the Gio Reyna we've all been waiting to see for for so long.
00:34:30
Speaker
So, yeah, in in theory, look, he he still does have a way of seeing and reading the game that I don't think anybody else in the player pool does. But you still need the physical attributes, too, and the and the mentality. And it'll be fascinating to see what his role is. i have no idea, no clue what his role is going to be.
00:34:50
Speaker
potential X factor. And then to close, I think in honor of the United States being the host, I think you got to go a little talking heads mode. You got to go a little first take mode and you got to say this whole 20 minutes of analysis of the United States, you can throw it out the window and you could say the United States best player, Christian Pulisic needs to step up.
00:35:12
Speaker
When is he going to lock in your thoughts? I would say that I don't think the Milan drought matters as much as people are making it out to me. Like, that's my hot take. I'm not going to... The hot take would be to say it doesn't matter at all, which I wouldn't be opposed to giving that take, to be honest. I think a lot of it... he I think some of it is just some bad luck.
00:35:34
Speaker
Some of it is like, yes, especially when he was playing for the US s in March, frankly. Like, he missed chances that... He just didn't quite look as sharp, but he says he feels sharp. And look, so much of, ah I think a lot of the drought at Milan is just Max Allegri, right? Like the way they play has been, it's awful.
00:35:50
Speaker
um It is. And he, and look, some of it is also, he struggled with, with injuries, but if, if he can get right physically for the tournament, which hopefully, you know, he can use the next couple of weeks to do that.
00:36:05
Speaker
then i I think he'll get a World Cup goal. And then people will stop talking about him as, you know, the face of the program who can't even score. And and we'll see. I agree with you. i more just my, my point even is, is that for this team to get where it needs to go, he has to in a talking head and non talking headway. He has to come up with the big goals. You can count on Baligan for a few, but he's not going to get you everyone. And if you need someone else or a you're going big goal. He's got to be the key playmaker and goal contributor in the final third. I think he has a lot of pressure on him. and I believe in you. I agree with the Milan take. I was obviously being a little silly, but there is pressure, right? There is some pressure on him to deliver. And Amit, the one position we haven't talked about this team is one that has traditionally been a strength for this team, but at this tournament probably won't be a strength. What are they going to do in goal? I don't know.
00:37:05
Speaker
Last we saw of Matt Turner, I mean, he was getting beat on shots. He shouldn't have gotten beat on. yeah i agree. He's shaky every time you watch him Can't use his feet.
00:37:16
Speaker
but he's still maybe the best shot stopper. I think that's why it's interesting. You've got a guy like Chris Brady who is rangy, pure shot stopper. I think Freeze is more of a...
00:37:27
Speaker
He's your like solid. I don't want to use like game manager goalkeeper. Like that's more of a quarterback term. That's often derisive. He is a goalkeeper that you play and he doesn't hurt you, but he's not going to elevate you with plus saves.
00:37:40
Speaker
Brady has some of that. I, I can't trust Turner. i just can't, but I don't know if you can trust Brady with none of the experience at this level. It's funny that you talked about Matt Turner as being shaky every time you watch him. Cause when I was referencing a goalkeeper who looked shaky earlier, I was talking about Matt freeze.
00:37:58
Speaker
So yeah but that speaks to the situation, right? Like first time in forever, they don't have a goalkeeper that, you know, they're going into a world cup without a goalkeeper who you really trust.
00:38:11
Speaker
And that, Amit, is the type of thing that can make a World Cup run unravel. It doesn't matter how good you are. One goalkeeper error can just kind of put everything up against the fame. This team should be good on attacking set pieces. You got a guy like Richards. You got a guy like McKinney. Hopefully Pulisic is no longer taking set pieces. And you've actually got some options here. This team defensively on set pieces Goalkeeper is going to be a liability plus the the marking and all of that. i I trust them to have a plan, but I think that's a big X factor that can help them. And especially we talk about it every podcast, every group, every team, bell curving, beating the bell curve. You are going to need to be airtight against a team that wants to be better than you on set pieces like Belgium.
Paraguay's Defensive Strategy
00:38:57
Speaker
Or like the next team we're going to talk about minute, which is Paraguay, who are kings of set pieces. So let's shift on from the US. So let's talk about the Paraguayans. Their ninth World Cup of appearance, its first time since 2010, where they were quarter finalists.
00:39:09
Speaker
For Paraguay, it was a tale of two qualifying campaigns. Under Daniel Garnedo, they could not score. They played some of the dullest football we've saw. They got five points from their first six matches. But in those first six matches, they scored one goal.
00:39:22
Speaker
And it was at home against Bolivia, which to be completely honest with you, doesn't really count. They had three losses at the 2024 Copa America. So in steps, Gustavo Alfaro. i mean, don't ask how he did it. Don't ask how he does it.
00:39:35
Speaker
He does it. Six wins, five draws, one loss in the rest of their qualifying campaign. The goals started flowing. They came from unexpected places. The vibes improved. At the end, they qualified with ease.
00:39:47
Speaker
This is a team that is not going to complicate things. They're going to defend hard. They're going to play low blocks. They're going to occupy space. They're going to win everything in the air in both boxes. And you had better be ready for a set piece barrage.
00:40:00
Speaker
And that, and particularly thinking about this, not just for the U.S., but the rest of the teams in this group, is going to ask questions. Yeah, first of all, the qualification. It is so funny to think about them getting through as easily as they did. You go back match by match, and it was just a lot of like luck.
00:40:19
Speaker
But Alfaro can take all the credit. He deserves some of it, right, for at least fixing the vibes. But to your point, I think when we talk about some of the other... word we're going to use here is muckers in this tournament.
00:40:32
Speaker
ah Number one is Tunisia type team, um maybe an Iraq, you know, maybe a Jordan. um Paraguay are built for this. And I think there are some higher level muckers and they're actually in um South America, like Colombia want to do some of that. Ecuador want to do some of that.
00:40:51
Speaker
Paraguay have the personnel, I think, to get like nine guys on the field that are just meant to make your life miserable. And they could just find enough goals.
00:41:04
Speaker
But I think the set piece thing here is really, really important to because they do have a great dead ball striker in one spot. And that is just enough to get this team over the hump. But I think scoring against them is going to be very, very hard. And the top teams in South America found it very hard.
00:41:20
Speaker
Orlando Gill kind of came out of nowhere, started three of the last friendlies in goal. They also have Roberto Cachito Fernandez and Carlos Cornell as other options. Maybe their most important player is Gustavo Gomez at Palmeiras, their starting center back. He's big, he's strong, he's an aerial threat, he's an eraser on defense. He might even take penalties.
00:41:39
Speaker
Sunderland's over Alderete, we'll start alongside him. He's also big and strong. He went off recently injured for Sunderland, but he should be back. Fullbacks, Junior Alonso at left back, Juan Cosreras or Alan Benitez at right back. Not super athletic. They're solid. They'll choke off space.
00:41:54
Speaker
Speedy wingers, particularly looking at perhaps what the U.S. can throw at them, what Turkey can throw at them, will be looking to take advantage. Right in front of that defensive line, you've got Diego Gomez at Brighton, who is a box-to-box runner type. Sao Paulo's Damian Bobadilla is also in that role.
00:42:09
Speaker
This system of it really depends on those guys covering a lot of ground and taking away a lot of the opposition space. They're going to have to Paraguay, I think is going to be one of the most content teams without the ball. I think at this tournament, I think Diego Gomez is a lot riding on him. He's, he is a good player. He could do a lot of that dirty work. And just again, the center backs here are very good for this ugly, ugly ball. I think, think they're going to be fine up the middle. I do think the fullbacks might be, it might be a weakness.
00:42:41
Speaker
Some skillier players in the midfield. You've obviously got Miguel Almarone. Injuries have kept him in and out of the lineup at at you've at Atlanta United. He's still probably their best attacking threat. ah Counter, run, space. You know the gel here. yeah Julio Nciso at Strasburg is another tricky wing guy who who's found some form and has been pretty good. He's a younger guy. The upper attacking guys, a bit. Gustavo Alfaro is going to reach into his right pocket.
00:43:05
Speaker
He's going to pull out a lucky rabbit's foot. He's going to rub it three times and whatever he feels like he's going to The options here aren't convincing. I also don't know that it matters. Antonio Sanabria started scoring goals under Alfaro. He's a traditional nine poacher type set pieces.
00:43:20
Speaker
He also has one goal in 25 this year for Cramedense in Italy. That's about what his form was for Paraguay before Alfaro. ah He might be due. He also might be out of the squad.
00:43:31
Speaker
There are some... Very interesting Paraguayan strikers on absolute heaters in South America right now that Gustavo Alfaro might be looking at with big eyes and saying, we're just going to ride him and it might work at a World Cup.
00:43:45
Speaker
You've got Alex Arce at Independiente Rivadavia. He has eight goals, Leslie Veritadores, including... a pair of hat tricks against Deportivo La Guayda of Venezuela.
00:43:55
Speaker
Gabriel Ablos at Independiente is the same kind of vibe, 10 and 17. And this is completely out of left field, but 33-year-old Charlie Gonzalez is scoring headers for fun at Independiente La Vache.
00:44:07
Speaker
He's in the long list. Keep an eye on that. Look, I mean, it would be very Alfaro for somebody like Arce or Charlie to come into this team and just bag goals on a heater out of nowhere and then kind of just disdain disappear into the international football. Now they're never to be heard again. None of these guys are even of the level of the rest of the team, what they're trying to do.
00:44:27
Speaker
ah It would, to me, be very funny if Antonio Sanabria was the guy actually after being really bad all year outside of his his brief Paraguay heater. Look, it's it's the system is at least all these guys. You know what you're asking them to do like.
00:44:41
Speaker
They're just going to lead the line and hope to get on the end of stuff from Enciso and El Maroon and just kind of poach. Just kind of poach. Maybe the ball bounces to you. At least if they're not scoring, no one's going to hold it against them. It's kind of all found money. I think you're trying to get goals elsewhere. So, yeah, it's not a plus. But I don't think they're playing to create a high volume of chits is anyway. Everything is kind of gravy. um it's ah It's a weird team.
00:45:06
Speaker
Their kind of way they got here defies like being good necessarily, but they are defensively very nasty. And that could this is a group where they could frustrate all three of the attacks very easily.
00:45:21
Speaker
And I just think it's such a fascinating opponent for the U.S. in the opener, because just because of the contrast. like They're going to be stepping out and it's going to be this big, glitzy occasion. Everybody in America suddenly paying attention. Nicest stadium in the world, etc., etc. They're going to be walking in there with... like The average soccer fan in America will have maybe heard of one of those players right in the Paraguay And yet you could argue they're just as good as the U.S., but like so many people in the U.S. won't see it that way and are going to be, you know, the crowd's going to start getting frustrated if it's no-no at halftime. But it's very like like it very likely could be no-no at halftime. um So I just, it's it's such a fascinating team from that perspective, I think.
00:46:02
Speaker
And I think one thing that works for Alfaro is, yeah, we talked about how Pochettino wants to play with the United States, but it's a different thing when you're trying to break down the lowest of low blocks. That is not necessarily what his system likes to do.
00:46:16
Speaker
And it's not the skill sets of those guys. So I think 0-0 at halftime could very well be the game. It could be a set PC grimy, like don't enjoy this game kind of game. Yeah.
00:46:28
Speaker
I buy Paraguay's ability to be very tough to play against at at any level. This is a team that getting through is going to be hard for them to get three somewhere, but they have they have they have three chances to go for three. I don't think they're playing for a draw, and it's not a team you want to see in a knockout stage. Even if you are a top four team in the world, you still just, they're they are really hard to score against. I think they're up there with the best defensive teams. And they just make the game miserable. And that is something they relish. And and Henry, it's an absolutely spot on point.
00:47:03
Speaker
Paraguay are going to love being the spoilers in the opening match. They are going to approach that game and they don't give one flip about not having the ball, about anything.
00:47:14
Speaker
They're going to say... We're probably going to get fouled three times in the opposing half. Good luck stopping Gustavo Gomez. Oh, Tim Ream, meet this guy. He's big. He's bulky. You think you can keep him from getting to a header?
00:47:26
Speaker
And that is what Parwai is going to look for in this game. Yes, Almaron and Ciso, I think, give them something in attack, right? Those are guys that... theoretically Pargly is looking to get those guys two on two, two on three, spacey type situations, right?
00:47:40
Speaker
But if they don't, and if they're just hoofing it long, absorbing pressure and winning free kicks, they'll be okay with that too. They can play that game. And getting a point in that first game for Paraguay, hey, that's great. That's one point in our back pocket. We have a Turkey team that we can also choke off and are probably bigger than and look for three points there. We match up pretty well against Australia. We can look for three points there.
00:48:04
Speaker
It amid, I think, is not just because it's the opening match for the U.S. or because it's the first, you know, one of the first games of the World Cup. It is a truly fascinating group stage matchup, that additional game.
00:48:16
Speaker
100%. I think they they're suited really well to frustrate. I think what's interesting is if in one of these second games, they need to go get a goal. Can Alfaro then find some ways to to do something? Because they might you know they might frustrate Paraguay and they are United States, and they might...
00:48:35
Speaker
be the spot where they just need something. That's where I think Paraguay Australia is a hilarious, hilarious game because Australia are kind of also meant to be very boring, even less grimy, but just like the most bog standard team you could think of that to that game is, is,
00:48:57
Speaker
hilarious to imagine. And it's funny, Amit, because in that type of situation that you just brought up, you know who Paraguay's best nine is? It's Gustavo Gomez. He's their center back. But in the last five minutes of the game, Gustavo Gomez is going to, or Gustavo Faro, I should say, is going to wave up Gustavo Gomez and they're going to lump balls in the box and see what happens. Look, the conclusion here on Paraguay is that these guys aren't going to convince you The friendly results are met. Don't let any of that fool you. They have this dark arts vibe going.
00:49:26
Speaker
Although there is a story going around that park Paraguay have been cursed by a wizard that has been making the news all around here in South America. So
Australia's Football Style and Strategy
00:49:34
Speaker
keep an eye on that. If any of the players start to feel some butterflies in the stomach, word is that a curse has been placed on Paraguay from somewhere.
00:49:41
Speaker
But they have the dark artsy vibes and they're going to challenge the teams in this group to deal with that. And it's going to make for fascinating television. Third team in this group, the Socceroos of Australia. It's their seventh World Cup, sixth straight.
00:49:55
Speaker
They made the round of 16 in 2022 ahead of Denmark. Much like Paraguay, they changed managers in their qualification cycle. Graham Arnold, who is now the manager of Iraq, left this Australia job in September of 2024. He was replaced by Tony Popovic. Under Arnold, they played six and won six in round two against Palestine, Lebanon, and Bangladesh.
00:50:15
Speaker
But then to kick off round three, they lost at home to Bahrain and drew away to Indonesia. That cost Arnold his job. It was probably time he had had a long run with Australia. It felt fairly stale.
00:50:26
Speaker
They brought in Popovic with the goal of getting to the World Cup and doing so in maybe an unimaginative, unimpressive way. That's what they did. They were unbeaten from then on. Five wins, three draws. They finished four points behind Japan, but six in front of Saudi Arabia.
00:50:41
Speaker
In contrast to Saudi Arabia, Australia could play organized football and shut off games. And that goes a long way in Asia. They're probably going go five at the back. They're probably going to look to be pacey, spacey back the other way.
00:50:54
Speaker
Amit you use the term bog standard international team. That's kind of what we're working with here. Yeah, we were talking about this before the podcast, and I think this team is very British in a way. Australia is, you know, former British colony. They play the most like Scotland and, you know, older England teams kind of before the the meta change a little bit. 4-4-2, lump it long, play off the striker, counter, defend, like no nonsense, no inversions, no overlaps, but...
00:51:29
Speaker
But in the modern sense of this game, they run very hard. I think their midfield's got some runners and they've got a few options in the front line to play this style.
00:51:40
Speaker
the The talent here, as we're going to talk about, is interesting. I just don't know if you can contextualize them with their results in qualifying, like because Saudi Arabia is quite bad, even though they're here. like I don't think being the third best team in Asia means anything to me. um i think it's a much more interesting exercise to be like, where would they be in Europe? Are they better than Scotland, a team that could get through as the third best team in a group? like I think they're right around there. Maybe they're a little worse, but they have always played well in international events. And maybe that's just headcanon. But like, I do expect them to be pretty solid here. The big question for Australia, Amit, is what happens when organization goes from being a strength to being the standard?
00:52:28
Speaker
right? So when Australia play these games in Asia, when they line up against ah Saudi Arabia, when it's Qatar on the other end, when they're going into Southeast Asia and playing Indonesia, or when it's, you know, Bahrain or Oman, whoever it will be, their ability to be organized, to stick to a system, to follow it to a T, that is a strength for them.
00:52:48
Speaker
You get to this stage at a World Cup, and that's just kind of what everybody does. So how can you take that and then bump up the level? And look, We saw it four years ago. They got out of a group by just kind of doing that and finding moments. And that feels like it's going to be the recipe here for Australia.
00:53:07
Speaker
They're not going to wow you. None of the individual players in this team are super impressive. The list of clubs is pretty standard. The list of plaudits for this team and players is...
00:53:20
Speaker
pretty standard. But what they're going to do is they're going make you beat them. That is one of their calling cards. And they have a couple of set PC guys they're going to look to. And they have a couple of pacey, spacey guys that they are, guess what, looking to try and get two on two, two on three back the other way and make it happen. It's not a complicated recipe.
00:53:41
Speaker
It's not a recipe that is requiring a lot of them. It's not a recipe that you look at you and say, ah, that's really going to work. But it's also not something that you look at and say, that's really not going to work.
00:53:53
Speaker
I think so. that's That's the expectation here. As we kind of look at the squad, I think in the midfield, Jackson Irvine is the guy that can make something happen. um Also, Connor Metcalf, but Irvine is is the difference maker. And I do think at least the strikers can play a holdup game for long balls to run off of. That is maybe their one calling card. Yeah, so so you mentioned Metcalf and Irvine. They're both at St. Pauli in the Bundesliga. They are key midfield pieces here. Their attack situation is interesting because they've kind of moved on from the old generation, right? Mitch Duke and and Matthew Leckie are still hanging around here, but I don't think they're going to be counted on much.
00:54:28
Speaker
Australia are currently in Sarasota, Florida. They've been there since the start of May. They're going to be there until they go to the West Coast for the World Cup. Those guys are in that Sarasota camp, but I think they're kind of squad players 20 to 26 but look break in case of glass throw another body on there but their attacking options have gotten newer uh denny jurich started both march friendlies he's a hold up nine croatia eligible but he picked australia before march and they have a couple of exciting speed guys to run off him right our mobile has been in the australia setup for quite some time he's at castellan in the spanish second division but maybe the most Interesting guy here is Nestor Irancunda, 20-year-old attacking player at Watford. He's getting a lot of buzz.
00:55:07
Speaker
He is the type of guy, Amit, that could be a World Cup breakout. And if you're sticking a big body like Juric up top and asking him to play balls down to guys, somebody with the skill set of Irancunda is interesting.
00:55:24
Speaker
100%. think it's a decent style. I think there's a little more pressure release valves here than there are for Paraguay, even if maybe the defense isn't as solid. I think in its simplicity and winning second balls and having a good target guy, it just slots in well to to this this type of game. Yeah.
00:55:45
Speaker
They're going to need someone, though, to surprise. And I guess that's that would be your biggest candidate. So where where is this team finding goals? is Is it really just set pieces? It might be in the back. Obviously, Matt Ryan goal veteran 100 plus caps. He's at Levante now. They have big, rigid center backs in kind of the Paraguayan mold. Stoke City legend Harry Suter is back. He had a 483 day absence at Leicester City, but it looks like he's going to make this World Cup.
00:56:11
Speaker
Cameron Burgess at Swansea is another big body in the back. Alessandro Circati is at Parma in Italy. He's younger, interesting, maybe a bit more of a modern ball playing center back. He will, again, as I said, I think they'll probably go five at the back with Suter and Burgess is kind of the bigger winner type center backs and Circati maybe being their their playmaking center back. Kyraels hanging around too in the center back conversation. Aziz Baic has been the Australian left back for a long time. He is 35 now. He's still the Australian left back. Uh, they're what they're going to do at right back is up in the air here. Kai Trewin, who's at and New York city, Jacob Italiano at Grosser in Austria, Lewis Miller at Blackbird rovers, all kind of in that conversation.
00:56:52
Speaker
They have some more midfield legs that that we haven't mentioned yet. Aiden O'Neill, Riley McGree. They're going to throw a lot of bodies at that midfield. And and again, look to run choke off space. It's interesting, Henry, because something that we don't see a lot at the World Cup, but you mentioned it, the U.S. played friendlies against Paraguay in Australia last year before the draw happened it obviously cut off the ability to play friendlies against the team in your group. It makes for some interesting reading. I don't think there's a lot that you can read into, you know, nine month pre-World Cup friendlies, but it is interesting that there is experience here among this trio of teams in the U.S., Paraguay, and Australia.
00:57:29
Speaker
And frankly, I think the biggest factor could be a bit of overconfidence on the on the U.S. part. um maybe Maybe more so among fans than among the the team, to be clear.
00:57:41
Speaker
But especially with Paraguay, right? I think, like, that Paraguay team, yes, it was some of the same players, but, like, it was a friendly... October-friendly, June World Cup opener are just different worlds. Exactly, exactly. And so I think there...
00:57:58
Speaker
Not that the U.S. is going to go into it underestimating, but they might just be stunned by this just feeling like a completely different game than the game they they played in November or whatever wherever it was.
00:58:12
Speaker
So I think that's really – there's really – in my opinion, there's not much tactically, if anything, that you you take away from – And even if there is something to the familiarity of it, like it's it's unclear which side would benefit from that more. Right. um So I think that's I think it's it's almost like the mental aspect of it that that fascinates me a bit.
00:58:31
Speaker
And Australia, too, a bit. Again, what you see in an October friendly flying halfway across the world to play in the US is not what you're going to see at a World Cup where they've been on ground for over a month.
00:58:43
Speaker
I think there's also a conditioning aspect of that in that they're expecting to run very, very hard to play their style and really just maximize all the margins. they they love They love this stuff in Australia. They are living for this opportunity to be frustrating, to be interesting. i think a ah great question here, like, who do who do you think is a little more thornier, Australia or Paraguay?
Paraguay vs Australia: Tactical Questions
00:59:06
Speaker
I think Paraguay, I think Australia are a better team in scare quotes, but I think Paraguay are a more difficult opposition because I think that extra 5% just mucky disgusting dirty buy-in that Paraguay will give you makes it just that bit harder i think they're willing to take things a step further than maybe Australia will be but I do think Australia are more dangerous as an attacking threat from like open play situations the other way that aren't set pieces and that aren't just
00:59:42
Speaker
Oh, Gustavo O'Farrill pulled out the Lucky Rabbit.
Turkey's Dynamic Playing Style
00:59:45
Speaker
I've referred to his Lucky Rabbit's foot like three times. If you watch this team in qualifying, you will understand why. um So I think they're both difficult oppositions in various ways. And I think they ask different questions of the ah opposing teams in this group.
01:00:01
Speaker
And I do think that the group is interesting in that both of these teams that we just covered... I would say are better than the names on the team seat, she suggests, yes right. They're more than some of the parts. And you could probably argue that the other two teams are the opposite, right? Like they've got names, but they haven't exactly shown that potential that the names would suggest they should have. And it just makes for an interesting dynamic in all the games.
01:00:24
Speaker
Henry alluded to them. Let's talk about when The fourth team in this group is Turkey. When the draw happened, that was not known. They are all gas, no breaks. It's their fourth World Cup appearance, but the first time since 2002 when they had a historic third place finish.
01:00:39
Speaker
They qualified through the European playoff. They were in a tough group with Spain. They finished in second. They drew Spain once. That's a good sign. They gave up six goals to Spain once. That's a bad sign. But they got to the playoff and they kind of did what you were asking them to do. And they played a little bit more controlled.
01:00:57
Speaker
They were very professional. They beat Romania and Kosovo 1-0. Those are not the best teams in European qualifying, but those are the type of teams that in the past have given this Turkey side trouble.
01:01:08
Speaker
It's a legitimate way to do it. They brought fun vibes to the Euro in 2024. They went 2-1 with a group with Portugal, Georgia, and Czechia. They got smacked 3-0 by Portugal. You'll see that happen to them, but they beat Czechia with a 94th minute winner and they knocked off the dark horses, Austria, and then we're okay in a 2-1 loss Netherlands in the quarterfinals.
01:01:27
Speaker
Vincenzo Montella is the Italian guy who is the manager here. Didn't have much of a career in Italy, but he went to Turkey, had done a decent enough job with a mid table side. um That got him the Turkey job and he was kind of available in it and said, all right, I'll do it.
01:01:42
Speaker
Yeah, i his profile was okay. you know He did a decent job in Serie A in their 2010s and then kind of fell off over the next five years. And he is, I think, a really underrated manager. And I think the secret, perhaps, to Turkey being dangerous. You kind of see from qualifying, like they're not near the top tier of your Spains, your Portugals, your Netherlands.
01:02:05
Speaker
but they are ah on their worst days, the third tier, but on their best days, kind of in that second tier, right on the door, right? Of maybe not Netherlands, but like right there and maybe a Croatia type team or better than your Polans and your Bosnias and your Czechias and, and, and such. um They're dangerous. And I think,
01:02:32
Speaker
Montella is the guy who kind of unlocked their balance by being very defensive, very tactically minded. He's gotten a lot of rave reviews. Again, it's one of those things where you don't know a guy is necessarily going to be a good international manager until you see it.
01:02:46
Speaker
But his game plan against Austria got a lot of credit in how he shut down a team that was... really, really good in the midfield. And then I do think watching Turkey navigate, again, Romanian Kosovo, not the level, but like the types of teams that Turkey just flounders to all the time in the past. This team has not had results in an international level for for generations, right? That quarterfinal they made at the Euro was their first like time in a quarterfinal in like 16 years. So like this guy is getting a lot of buzz for this team. And I i think as we're going to see right now, they're this team is dangerous. He is dangerous.
01:03:25
Speaker
I'm not saying he's Mauricio Pochettino. Like I don't want to make that comparison, but I think he is a very capable foil X's and O's wise. And the style of it can range from, as you said, that kind of more pragmatic, look, we're better than this team. Let's just be better with them and not make mistakes.
01:03:41
Speaker
Two, let's throw as many attacking players on the field, but none of them are strikers because we simply don't have a striker. Throw the ball around and play some pinball chaos. Wheelie deely. Let's see what happens. They're a fun team to watch because the possibilities feel endless.
01:03:55
Speaker
They are. And listen, the the strength of this team is its front three interchangeable attackers. They've got guys that can kind of run, do everything that's led by Arda Goulair at Real Madrid.
01:04:07
Speaker
Superstar winger getting even more and more run because Rodrigo got hurt. um He's super creative. And then in terms of the other front line around him, you've got Kenan Yildiz and Baris Yilmaz, Juventus and Galatasaray.
01:04:20
Speaker
um They don't have a striker, which is ah which is a problem going forward. But Montella has kind of said, that's great. What if we had three or four guys that are really, really fun and we'd want to get them in space and have them interchange and use their silkiness, their speed, their dribbling, their connections, their passing. This team is very, very fun to watch. And I think...
01:04:41
Speaker
from the United States perspective, but from any perspective is going to put your fullbacks in jeopardy. And if you leave transition in the field, they will hurt you in transition. And so that in that way, they can kind of grind you to a halt if you're not willing to play that, or they will simply come at you and you could be seeing four threes types of games, which is really fun. And we've seen that for them, both games. So this is a, this is a live wire kind of team. So how many attacking players are we looking at in the starting 11 here? So you mentioned right Guler, Yildas, Yilmaz. Those three are probably in there. Is there a chance that Montella throws our turk glue at the nine? And again, he's five, eight, so he's not really a nine. Could we get four guys interchanging in the attack here? Please say yes.
01:05:28
Speaker
think you can if you like to holding midfielders before them. It's a question of does he play five in the back? Does he play four in the back? Same question in the United States. Same problem. There's not three or four good center backs. So we we had this discussion. Do you need the extra center backs because you're bad or do you need to get more attacking players on the field? um The other problem here is their next best player. And the player that many are familiar with with Turkey is Hakan Kalhanoglu, who is at Inter Milan. He has gotten older and slower every year, doesn't cover as much ground, but is still a great creative passer, superb passer. So they kind of need to help him out with two other holding midfielders. So because of that,
01:06:11
Speaker
I don't think you can get four of the fun attackers on the field. I think your fourth fun player is Kyle Hanoglu, who is a deep-relying playmaker. You're getting three of those guys. um Maybe Yilmaz or Yildiz sits. Obviously, Goulier is on the team sheet if Arctoglu is in. The other super fun player here in their back line is left back.
01:06:33
Speaker
Cardio glue. He's at Brian. He is super marauding, super fun. So you do kind of have five guys that can do fun things attack, even if they're spread out over the field. Everyone else tilts a bit more defensive. And that tilt defensive is kind of just trying to survive.
01:06:48
Speaker
Yeah, they're just trying to get center backs out there and a right back out there that can do something. um Starting with Bardocki, Abdul Kareem Baraki at Galatasaray. He is a Super League, Dyrker Super League center back.
01:07:01
Speaker
He's very fine. He's an average center back. Mary Demiral is probably their best center back, but he's been hurt all year. He was at Juventus, went to the Saudi league, missed the Euro playoff with an injury. Not what you want to see.
01:07:15
Speaker
He, if he plays, Turkey is a lot more credible as a backline threat. If he doesn't, this team is going to feel a little bit one-sided. i was on callback at Hoffenheim.
01:07:26
Speaker
he's an okay defender as your as your third defender, and everyone else is a little bit worse. So you kind of got one in a hypothetical. Good defender here. Is that a recipe to to get you where you need to go? I'm not quite sure. And then right back, um they have Zeki Celik at Roma. They don't play him. They play Mert Muldor.
01:07:44
Speaker
He's not very good going forward, but he is a defensive specialist, again, because Montella needs... five or six guys to defend. Again, alongside Kalhanoglu, Yuksek, Ismail Yuksek is a good center defensive midfielder.
01:07:58
Speaker
Salih Ozkan at Dortmund, another good defensive midfielder. This team up the spine is good. i think your weaknesses that you're looking at are can you exploit Kalhanoglu's mobility?
01:08:10
Speaker
Can you exploit maybe the the right backs' but ball progression and can you make them pay because they don't have a striker and they need to break you down doing technical pretty stuff if you are more physical with them They make for such an interesting contrast in this group because you have, okay, this U S team that is playing this kind of modern premier league style that we grow a custom to that you watch every, every weekend on your television, Saturday and Sunday, we have absolute brawlers in Paraguay, in Australia, it's a various forms. And then there's this team that might try and do pretty things and they might get looked at and just say, ah, that's cute. You're not getting anywhere with any of that. It's such a
01:08:50
Speaker
fascinating group. And because of everything that we talked about earlier, Amit, with the opportunity here, everything that we said to the U.S. as being an opportunity to make a quarterfinal goes 100% for Turkey here in this group as well. They have the talent to look at this and say, we can be World Cup quarterfinalists. Why not?
01:09:09
Speaker
I think so. When you've got a player like Arda Goulair, who is maybe the most talented player in the group at Real Madrid, that's a threat. And you look at the United States backline and the Turkey front three is a threat. And so Henry bringing you in here now that you kind of ensure you've been thinking about Turkey, it's a, it's a very intriguing game. I think the United States, not underestimating these guys, but like very, very strong test. Yeah, and it's the one where you worry about the U.S.'s backline the most, right? like Especially because Turkey's players that you're worried about are going to drift wide, probably.
01:09:45
Speaker
And that's where the two most vulnerable U.S. defenders are going to be. Even if it's not one of the center backs, even if it's Sergino Dest or Tim Weah playing on the right side... those Those are defenders where defensive defensive play is not their strength, right? And then Tim Ream is being exploited for pace by MLS players.
01:10:03
Speaker
So, you know, what's going to happen when he comes up against these guys? So, yeah, it's going to... And that, like, so i think there could be some goals in that game, I would say. you You would hope you would hope. And remember, we saw Belgium. Jeremy Doku was just giving away ah a nightmare of a game. Well, these guys can do that, too.
01:10:22
Speaker
I think Montella versus Pochettino, two teams trying to solve bad center backs and wing backs with fun attackers is actually a really, really fun little subplot of this group.
Group Stage Outcomes and Strategic Plays
01:10:35
Speaker
That's a great game. And it's a great game to admit because it's the last game in the group stage. Right. And so what will be at stake there? Will it be OK? Both of these teams are through, but we're looking to try and get an easier path that could make this game open.
01:10:50
Speaker
Or has enough happened elsewhere? Are we watching if goals are flying in probably off of heads and dead balls in Australia, Paraguay? And how is that changing the calculus? This group is set up to be a really interesting final day, I think.
01:11:05
Speaker
Yeah, 100% agree. but Like, that's exactly what I was going to say. I think so much of how that game goes could depend on what the stakes are. And what I hope it is, is that... Both teams are already through and they each know that if they win, they top the group, right? So that they have like, they don't need to, there's nothing to be worried about.
01:11:24
Speaker
And there are, there is a bonus there. There's benefit to winning the game. um And I think that could make for one of the more fun games of the group stage. It could also be interesting admit we are, again, think back to kindergarten. We're early in the alphabet here, right? We're only on group D. And so that means that by the time we get to the final match day, we'll have a bit of an idea of what that third place table looks like.
01:11:47
Speaker
But there will still be a lot of variables playing out. So as is so often the case here at World Cup After Dark, we encourage managers to have their guy. And their guy could be big on the third match day in this group because you're trying to project what could happen.
01:12:01
Speaker
And as we've seen so many times, a 3-1 goal could end up being the difference. You got to keep attacking in this tournament. You got to keep attacking early in groups A through D or even EF. Like it's going to be dicey. um I do think last thing on Turkey, I think talking about them versus the United States is fascinating.
01:12:19
Speaker
actually think they project better to unlock the types of defenses that Paraguay and Australia are presenting because of the way they play. So that could help them. I think the United States might need to make up goals um on the, in that final game. If it's that kind of scenario we're talking about, i I really like this Turkey team. I do. And I think also the runner up path isn't killer either. So whatever happens, both teams are going to feel like they have a shot. Um,
01:12:46
Speaker
Look, they they they don't necessarily strike me as a team that can be an elite team in three phases, so they're not a pure dark horse, but I think they are going to put on tape some of the most fun soccer in the tournament. And those attacking players looking to manipulate a stagnant back line like they're probably going to get against Australia and Paraguay makes for really good viewing as well. Henry, we'd like to close these preview shows by saying that, okay,
01:13:14
Speaker
We're going to watch every game of the World Cup. There's 104 of them. I will probably see all 104 of them. Amit will probably see at least portions of all 104 of them. But if you could only watch one game from this group, what's your pick here?
01:13:28
Speaker
think I think just said it right. us U.S. Turkey, I think, is the is the game. The one caveat to that, I would say, is I think U.S. Australia in Seattle will be the best atmosphere of any game.
01:13:42
Speaker
um To be fair, Turkey fans could change that in L.A., but... It's definitely the most pro-US atmosphere. And I genuinely think, like when you think about what some Sounders atmospheres have been like in Seattle over the years for big games, and from everything that fans have told me, like the the fans who can afford a trip to one of the US games, they have picked this one in part because it's the cheapest.
01:14:07
Speaker
in part because it is the one that kind of became talked about as, all right, that's the one that we're going to make a really cool atmosphere. So I think that against Australia, and look, Australia fans are going to bring it too.
01:14:19
Speaker
So I think that could be a really fun afternoon in Seattle. He's the big ticket. I mean, he couldn't resist. I love it. I hope the Euro snobs are ready for World Cup fight and win in Seattle. Please, please give it to me.
01:14:33
Speaker
ah I think for me, I like the U.S. Turkey shout. I think Turkey Paraguay is a really interesting game because of stylistic contrast. But I think opening night, Los Angeles, Henry kind of painted the picture here, the glitz and the glamour of the World Cup opening night. I imagine there's going to be a very gaudy opening ceremony.
01:14:52
Speaker
i am sure there's going to be a lot of English speaking, talking heads yelling at television. There's going to be a lot of Spanish speaking, talking heads yelling at televisions. And then a ball is going to roll and Paraguay are going to look to do nearly illegal things to prevent the U.S. from scoring. And it's just going to be what I love about the World Cup, which is it matters so freaking much to every single player who has the ability to say that they've played in a World Cup.
01:15:24
Speaker
And those are the type of moments that just really kind of put it all into focus. And for me, at least, Amit, allow me to giggle and laugh at and say, I don't really care about everything else. I know there's big topic World Cup stuff. We touched on some of that in our general World Cup preview.
01:15:40
Speaker
But at the end of the day, the ball is going to roll and we're just going to sit back and love it. I'm with you. It's a spectacle. Paraguay is a perfect team for spectacling. Gustavo Alfaro could do something, magic trick you've never seen before. You simply must tune in. And one of a number of World Cup matches, I think, that are probably going feature two Argentine managers and something that we've talked about. mean, Argentine managers are in vogue in South America. It's the thing that everybody wants. You've got Alfaro, you've got Pochettino. It's really, really interesting. right, to close me out quick here, talk me through the metric, talk me through the numbers. These are the metrics that I'm most interested in hearing because it doesn't feel stratified.
01:16:17
Speaker
There's not going to be major plus money for someone to get through sitting out somewhere. talk me through it. Yeah, all four teams have minus odds to go through. That can't be right. You, the listener, if you understand math, that simply is wrong. ah USA is about minus 750 to one, about seven to one. That's you know pretty good. You're giving them 80, 90 percent. Not quite 90 percent, but right there to get through. Turkey's at minus 400. Again, 70, 80 percent.
01:16:42
Speaker
um Not quite 90, not quite 85. Paraguay's here, I think, favored twice as much as Australia. You're kind of giving them... ah I don't know if twice as much in pure percentage, but um more like two to one versus one to one kind of is the odds there, which is interesting.
Betting Odds and Match Predictions
01:17:01
Speaker
I asked you earlier and I don't think you had necessarily looked.
01:17:04
Speaker
I guess you think Australia is better than Paraguay. I think it's a fascinating question. I think those two teams are a lot closer and I think the odds are odds makers are a bit off there. They're going be wrong somewhere. So that is fascinating.
01:17:15
Speaker
um Listen, I think this group is a little bit closer than that. I think, USA is not as favored as a lot of the pot A teams. We're seeing 10 to 1, 100 to 1 for some of those teams. There is a chance they could they could not go through.
01:17:29
Speaker
Other numbers, value plays, I will toss out as I think it is interesting. If you want USA, Turkey both to advance in the top two, that's plus 150. Listen, Paraguay and Australia are dangerous, but that's kind of ah a decent shout. And then we talked about the bell curve. If you if you if you're a believer, plus 275 for the United States to reach the quarterfinals.
01:17:49
Speaker
Listen, You think they're going to get to a round of 16 team. They probably have a better percentage shot than that in a one-off game against Belgium and plus two 75 things can go wrong, but I think that is very good value for this United States team that has a high ceiling. So a very fun opportunity for them land of opportunity in this group.
01:18:06
Speaker
Final thoughts from you, Henry on this group, at anything else you want to bring up anything else that that piques your interest? I would just say, i to jump off and the the numbers there, I think they should all be closer together.
01:18:17
Speaker
like i think I don't think there's that much differentiation in terms of overall quality and chances to advance between any of these four teams, which is why it's going to be. And I think it's one of the very few, if not maybe the only group in this World Cup, then you can say, I think the the fourth best team in this group is better than the fourth best team in any other group.
01:18:37
Speaker
And I think that's what's going to make it interesting. And the other three teams are as equal to that fourth best team as certainly you'll see in any group, right? i mean We've already talked about group A. We've already talked about group B. um Those groups are weak, yes, but there's still some stratification among the individual teams when you look at a team like Czechia or when you look at South Africa or when Yulon Lopetegui's Qatar gets thrown into the situation.
01:19:05
Speaker
And there's not really that case here. And it kind of all circles back to that point that we made initially. There's not three points sitting in this group, right? There's not a game for any of these teams that you look at and you feel excessively confident about three points.
01:19:20
Speaker
And that, i it I think, makes for really interesting viewing.
01:19:25
Speaker
100%. It's very balanced. It's going to be right there. It's going to be a lot of eyeballs. This is going to be so fun. There's so much pressure on the United States at home. And it's I think it's going to be a great little pressure cooker.
01:19:37
Speaker
um Man, give me to LA. Give me to Paraguay. Give me to Castaro Alfaro with his rabbit in a hat. it's all It's all we can ask for. ah Henry, what what can our listeners expect from you during the World Cup? What are you gonna be up to?
01:19:49
Speaker
will be following the U.S. We're recording this on a Friday, on May 22nd. On May 24th, I head off on my, you know, maybe months-long journey. Just following the U.S. wherever they go. So I'll be with them. We'll have plenty of other coverage. Obviously, the Athletic as a whole will have way too much. coverage. You can't have too much coverage. You can't have too much. You can possibly imagine. We'll have some people at every game. So yeah, a lot. And you, I'm sure everybody can, we'll be able to find it. Hopefully.
01:20:23
Speaker
ah Henry, thank you so much. It's always a pleasure for Amit and I to get you on the show. We love having you. You add a unique perspective as somebody who is in the nitty gritty day to day of what this US team is. And I think it contrasts really well with the the perspective that Amit and I are are trying to bring here. So thank you so much for for making the time. And ah I hope you enjoy the the other 11 group stage previews that we're putting out.
01:20:45
Speaker
I am. They've been they've been fantastic. the best the the but The best previews I've listened to. Granted, I haven't listened to any other ones. so But no, but they've been great. You guys are all in need. I imagine there's going to be a lot of flights in your future. Some of them might be long. They're going to be 12 plus hours of World Cup preview content for the World Cup after dark.
01:21:06
Speaker
What more could you ask for? ah If you are new around here, thank you for joining us. If you've gotten 81 minutes into this show, that means you probably like what it is we're doing or what we are doing here piqued your interest.
Podcast Wrap-Up and Availability
01:21:19
Speaker
You can find the World Cup After Dark podcast anywhere you get your podcasts, obviously Spotify, Apple Podcasts, whatever podcast service you're looking for. We are there.
01:21:27
Speaker
If you want to find the rest of our World Cup preview content, you can do that at patreon.com slash WCAD. Right there, front page, first thing you see is our World Cup preview hub. There are group previews for all 12 of the groups. Amit and I are going in deep on all 48 teams at the World Cup, giving them all their dues.
01:21:45
Speaker
We also have what I think was a really good big picture look at this World Cup that we recorded before anything else. There'll be a prediction show. And then during the World Cup, Mitt and I will be covering it all in a way that only we can, which will hopefully try to bring out the fun side of of everything that you see at the World Cup. So there will be plenty of of that from us. If you would like to support what we do when you get to patreon.com slash WCAD, you can do so for $3 a month. Subscriber only benefits and you help us do what we are doing.
01:22:15
Speaker
Plenty more World Cup preview content to come from us. There's plenty of World Cup preview content from us that is already out there. We will obviously see you guys all throughout the tournament. All that is left for me to say is once again, a big thank you to Henry for joining us and thank you for listening.