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WCAD 4-10: Group J Preview
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Austin and Amit preview Group J, led by defending champions Argentina, who are looking to become the first repeat World Cup Champions since Brazil in 1962. They're joined by Energy Drink Soccer afficionados Austria, Dark Horses of Tournaments Past Algeria, and a Jordan side dealing with key injuries.
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Transcript
Argentina's World Cup 2026 Journey Begins
00:00:01
Speaker
Mucha. but Sorry. Just enjoying the last couple of minutes here while Argentina are still World Cup champions. That's right. imit It's time to talk about the defending World Cup champions looking to be the first team to go back to back since the 1960s. It's the Group J podcast. Supposedly J is the group with Argentina. The letters are really starting to run together at this point of the exercise.
00:00:23
Speaker
we're We're deep in Austin. It's a jumble. We're getting lost. You're seeing groups, winners and pots appear to you at nights, like at night, like a dream. And you're like, wait, that's the the group we're in.
00:00:35
Speaker
and I can't keep track of too many letters. 12 was too many. I, uh, I'm totally good on who is in what group. Like if you told me like name the 12 groups, I can get which four teams are in 12 groups. it' just been matching that to the letter that we're using those extra four letters, man. They really do just make life hard. This is the world cup after dark podcast. This isn't the alphabet soup podcast, although that's probably out there somewhere. If you're looking for it, he is a bit Malik. My name is Austin Miller. We're continuing our group by group preview for the 2026 people
Preview of Argentina's Group and Potential Matches
00:01:08
Speaker
world cup. And I got to say, there are probably very few Argentina World Cup previews that start with a singing of muchachos and continue with a bit on alphabet soup. But here we are.
00:01:20
Speaker
Listen, this is the the podcast for Argentina international takes in English, I think. um So get excited. Let's start quickly here with the draw. I mean, it's something that you and I have talked about a lot for this group. They're paired with group H, which is the Spain group. If you think back to the world cup draw where Wayne Gretzky didn't know any of the countries he was supposed to talk about, the village people showed up. There was Andrea Bocelli, Donald Trump did bits on the stage. Um,
00:01:49
Speaker
There was a whole big deal about how the top seeded and the second top seeded teams in the FIFA rankings, which are Argentina and Spain, respectively, we were going to be separated in this draw if they win their groups.
00:02:01
Speaker
And so they made this whole big deal about this convoluted thing about which groups they could go in, which groups they couldn't go in. At the end of the day, it ended up like this. Argentina ended up in Group J. s Spain ended up in Group H. And if they win their groups, they can't meet until the final.
00:02:16
Speaker
But in a positively, thoroughly enjoying, enjoyable plot twist, if Argentina win the group and Spain finish second, or if Spain win the group and Argentina finish second, instead of meeting in the final, iit they would meet in the round of 32. That's what this HJ pairing has given us. The winner here will play the runner-up of Group H in Miami.
00:02:36
Speaker
The runner-up will play the winner in Los Angeles. The rest of the pack to the round of 16 for the winner looks like the runners-up of the USA and the Belgium group for the of 16. You've also got Portugal group winner and also the Canadian group winner waiting in the quadrant for the runner-up.
00:02:52
Speaker
It's the runner-up of a Portugal group or perhaps the England group in the round of 16. You've got D and G also in the quadrant. I think my biggest takeaway here is we are a one slip-up away from a round of 32 matchup to end all round of 32 matchup.
00:03:07
Speaker
FIFA better be careful. or They already have the dice cast, all yeah yakt s as they say, but they better hope that things do not ah turn out that way because that would be completely mad. And don't have to squint. It's a three-game sample for something crazy to happen. That is how it goes.
00:03:26
Speaker
But... We kind of talked on that podcast a little bit, the Spain one, which we did before, is that we're both backing Argentina and Spain to finish ahead of their groups.
00:03:37
Speaker
To what degree is one more likely than the other? i don't know. That's what we talked about. um We're going to talk about that on this one today. It's not implausible. Like Uruguay is a tier two team. Austria What's the percentage chance?
00:03:52
Speaker
Like what's the percentage chance here? Yeah, I think for either one of them, it's ah we can we can look at the odds. It's probably 20% to 30%. That's not that's yeah it's not crazy. It's not insignificant at all here. Yeah, and it only needs to happen in one group. So...
00:04:10
Speaker
It's just playing with fire. Maybe a big conspiracy will be out about. I actually, I don't believe that at all, but you know, it's a joke that like that could get in the way to preserve the matchups.
00:04:21
Speaker
Listen, I think the um four protected putting in air quotes, top seeds in their, in their bracket pads is a decent thing for FIFA to try. Don't think that's bad. I think all of those teams have,
00:04:34
Speaker
pretty soft paths to a quarterfinal. I think that secondary take on the the bracket here is that Argentina could get two runners up and then Portugal like that is pretty cushy. Obviously, Argentina, Portugal is another game that can blow up the Internet, something we'd be really, really excited to see if we get there.
00:04:58
Speaker
But you that game or the Internet blowing up? Because I think I'm in for both. I'm in for all of it. I mean, maybe Spain finishes second and Argentina has to go through Spain and then Portugal. Like, make it give give it give it all to me. So yeah there's there's a lot of intrigue with the draw here. And I think also, secondarily, tertiarily, as we talk about this group, is that... We really like um some of the teams here, and that would be Algeria and Austria, two teams that I think fit a lot of the dark horse buzz candidates. Not going to toss out that word after this for the rest of the podcast, but have a very hard limit on potentially a round of 32 team is Spain.
00:05:37
Speaker
That is a bummer if you're trying to compare to other teams where the bracket might help you out a little bit more. So I think this group in particular, the draw is super, super undercurrent of everything.
00:05:50
Speaker
And it's interesting because I think there was a sentiment, certainly in Argentina, that, all right, this is a pretty accessible World Cup draw, right? Austria, second tier European team, Algeria, African team and tradition in transition, Jordan, World Cup debutants that probably don't have the level of either the other two teams. That might be the case. But again, as as we've talked about so much, and as we'll continue to talk about, the draw is so much more than just the four teams you're playing a group with. It's everything between now and when the trophy gets lifted ah and at MET Life Stadium on on on July 19th. So let's start with Argentina.
Argentina's Winning Strategy Reflection
00:06:20
Speaker
mit As I've sung and and and made every point, they are the defending champions here.
00:06:25
Speaker
No one has won back-to-back World Cup since Brazil did it in 58 and 62. It's a 19th World Cup appearance for Argentina. They haven't missed the World Cup since 1970. My big overarching takeaway here is that their run four years ago, well, three and a half years ago, actually, in Qatar, it was something out of the storybooks, right? There there were vibes, there was juice, it was Messi's last dance.
00:06:49
Speaker
Everything seemed to coalesce into this thing that became so much bigger than anybody could have really possibly imagined going into the World Cup. So when that happens, I don't think there's really any other approach for Argentina than tinker around the edges, replace the pieces that need replacing because of age, and kind of just run it back.
00:07:13
Speaker
But that being said, everything seemed to go right, or at least if it went wrong, it was fixable. And so running it back isn't this foolproof plan because things were so close. Like everything kind of teetered on the edge and a lot of different moments for Argentina during that run.
00:07:34
Speaker
And so just kind of pressing that replay button, I think is probably the best thing that Lionel Scaloni can do. But I also think that it's a dangerous spot to be in because you think back to how many moments Argentina had in that run And you're asking for simply one of those moments to flip. And a lot of them were kind of coin flip 50-50 things. And some of them were even less probable propositions.
00:08:00
Speaker
It's hard to buy Argentina as all of that's going to just happen again. And they'll flip back to back World Cup trophies because that's just not a thing that happens in sports. It's not. That's the nature of the knockout beast is, let's be honest, like they were the third or second or fourth best team there. And they, as you have very smartly alluded to, got a bunch of things their way. And that's on top of two penalty shootouts, right? You're talking about Netherlands, you're talking about France in the final, like those are inherently coin flips. And then you can also even think to, you know, the group stage and Messi's goal against Mexico. And it's like,
00:08:40
Speaker
that doesn't happen. What are we looking at here? Right? Like the whole thing is different. And but listen, it's hindsight. theyre They're the
In-Depth Squad Analysis: Messi and Team Dynamics
00:08:48
Speaker
champions. It did all go well. And we, I think had always been impressed by Argentina's cohesiveness, but it wasn't like overwhelming favorite gets the title. It was team good enough has everything click at the right time. I think you and I both feel about this Argentina team that they are their best when the sum of their parts is greater than the parts. The sum is greater than the parts. And that's great.
00:09:15
Speaker
And they're going to try to do that again. But I think what we're we're getting at here is that equation is hard to do twice, right? think you'd rather be the team with the best parts and you reload better parts. And Sometimes when you're at the top of the mountain, right, you got to be hungry to take to get guys in. And it's not that Argentina has gotten worse necessarily in four years, but it is not some massive influx of game-changing talent, as you've said, and we're going to talk about. It's kind of retool around the edges a little bit, but set the same car up to go again. and that is inherently dicey. And before we get in, I think on talent, this Argentina team is around fourth in the world.
00:09:58
Speaker
I think that's just fair. Now, again, the fourth best team can win and the draw has very much helped them. And listen, you get to the quarterfinals, semifinals. Great. I think you would take those chances if you're Argentina. But inherently, it's going to be hard to get the coin flips the same way.
00:10:15
Speaker
So the guy setting up that car a bit to continue your analogy is Lino Scaloni. He took the Argentina job after the 2018 World Cup ended in relative disaster. Absolutely no one wanted to take the Argentina job at that point.
00:10:31
Speaker
He was somebody who was in the Argentine Federation kind of kicking about and said, all right, I'll do it. Nobody else wants it. I'll do it. It took some time. But since 2021, they've won three major tournaments. They have two Copa Americas. They won the World Cup. And that kind of run puts you, obviously, in the history books. It's the only professional managerial job that Scaloni has ever had.
00:10:51
Speaker
There is a not insignificant possibility that it will be the only professional managerial job that Lionel Scaloni ever has. Only Didier Deschamps at France by six years and Moriasu, the Japanese manager, by one month have longer tenures at this World Cup as international managers.
00:11:07
Speaker
They had a cruisy South American qualifying 12 wins, two draws, four losses. They lost to Uruguay at home and then Ecuador, Paraguay and Colombia away. I think my biggest kind of off the field red flag here for Argentina is they had a finalissimo friendly slash match slash deal with Spain that was supposed to happen in March in Qatar that got canceled. And so their pre-World Cup friendly opponents have been Venezuela and Puerto Rico in October.
00:11:35
Speaker
Angola in November, Zambia and Mauritania in March, and then they will play Honduras and Iceland in June. And that, Amit, is the full list of teams from outside CONCACAF that Argentina have played since Australia and Indonesia in China, which was six months after the World Cup.
00:11:52
Speaker
ah That might not be a thing, But high level international football, and I'm talking about the highest level of international football, is so difficult to replicate. And it's not something that Argentina have seen in three and a half years.
00:12:07
Speaker
That feels like it might be significant. I think it does kind of matter for this team and specifically this iteration of the team as it had evolved towards kind of the back end of this Scaloni project.
00:12:21
Speaker
I'm not sure this XI has those reps, but the other thing is basically since winning the World c Cup, they've... gotten up for everything at the exact level they needed to. I think that is a hallmark is they didn't just win and like kind of faded away. They defended themselves in qualifying expertly just managed. Again, we know common ball qualifying can be a slog and they kind of were up for that. Exactly. Best team in the, in, in the region. And Copa America was really impressive too, in that they just, you
00:12:53
Speaker
Their baseline output is so hard to beat. They do not beat themselves. That to me is Scaloni's calling card and this team's identity's calling card. So while I agree I don't love it, I just think you're kind of penciling in the... There is no rust ever with this iteration of his his team. He just gets his guys at a very high level. Now...
00:13:16
Speaker
is that mean they're going to be a hundred percent in game one? I don't know, but like I generally buy this team to not show some of that as a problem. The point that you made there that I think is really crucial is they've responded to every single moment. And yes, there, there were some dips and in qualifying, but when Argentina came up against a big opposition or a big moment, it felt like they delivered it pretty much every opportunity. And that Copa America win was impressive because they didn't have their fastball. right? That wasn't the A plus world cup wedding Argentina, but they just refused to be beaten by anybody. And they took on a Columbia team in a very charged atmosphere in Miami.
00:13:56
Speaker
They took all of Columbia's punches. They kept them off the board on set pieces, which nobody was able to do in that tournament. And they just said, we're the best team in South America and we're going to show it to you again.
00:14:07
Speaker
So their style of it is predicated on complete and total buy-in from everybody on the pitch. They're going to contest every blade of grass when it matters. They are physical and fierce in the midfield. They're dominant in possession. They're free flowing and attack. They can shut it down if they need to. They can counter if they need to They feel fairly flexible tactically, right?
00:14:30
Speaker
But the thing under pining it all is 100% go buy in from everybody. That is what makes this Argentina team so dangerous.
00:14:40
Speaker
Yeah, it's the buy-in and it's the fact that they are strong in all three phases. Listen, I think high-end talent, again, you might not like this team's high-end talent compared to England, France, and Spain.
00:14:55
Speaker
But there's no one in here that is not committed to the system. They actually are very good at pressing up against you, taking away space, and not giving you time to play. And they are good enough.
00:15:07
Speaker
at 11 spots on the field to do that, even when Messi plays, if he plays, which we're going to talk about, they're very experienced at covering the ground around him to enable that. So I do think it flexibility is a key word because yes, you know, they'll run, but like they can kind of build their, uh, attacking approach to pick on whatever they need to. They could be more countery. They could be more dominant with the ball.
00:15:33
Speaker
And I think the strength of this team is the midfield and center backs just being very able to, to play any style that is, that that is at a high level. Very good. Um,
00:15:45
Speaker
Are they going to be as silky or as defensive as some of the teams good at one of those things? Maybe not, but they can do both at a a minus level like that. I don't necessarily and necessarily sure that any other team could do that in the same way.
00:16:01
Speaker
So what are the pieces that we're working with here? Emmanuel Diva Martinez, Dibu Martinez will start in goal. He bashed a finger in the Europa League final. Should be fine. Doesn't seem like there's any concern there. He is an X factor, admit, because if you want to talk about big game goalkeepers, it's Dibu Martinez. If it's a Premier League Saturday in January, you might not be feeling great about things.
00:16:22
Speaker
But in that World Cup run in 2022 and what he's done in Copa America, he's a big game guy and that has value here. Yeah, once every two or three games, you see him toss in a really bad error and you're like, how is this guy somehow the best goalkeeper in the world? um And, you know, i don't know if he ever was or is, but he plays like that the other two games in a row or in the big games. You know, he has that reputation.
Tactical Flexibility and Managing Messi's Time
00:16:48
Speaker
I think he also. Yeah.
00:16:51
Speaker
Starting with him and another theme of this Argentina team is their nastiness, their mean streak, their ability to press the other team's buttons. And I mean that in a complimentary way. And that starts with Divu. Like he's just kind of always getting into something. But one thing he is good at, he's very tall. He is very good in the box. on set pieces, crosses. Listen, he can he can make mistakes, but he also just is commanding, has that aura around him that matters. And like some of these goalkeepers are are just pure shot stoppers. He is a pretty all-around goalkeeper. In fact, maybe he is not the best pure shot stopper, he can do everything. And listen, he's earned the benefit of the doubt to just, we're expecting Debu to be at superstar levels, I think.
00:17:40
Speaker
The psychological warfare here, I think is a very good thing that you point out with Argentina that kind of can help put them over the edge is they're not afraid to get into the mucky parts of the game and they're not afraid to make it physical and they're not afraid to, you know, any of the 11 will go at you in that side of thing that that helps in defense. Yeah. Not well Molina. Kuti Romero, who should be coming back from from a health issue. Lissandra Martinez, Nicolas Taliafico.
00:18:05
Speaker
That looks to be the back four here. Again, it's not the best collection of four individual defenders you'll find, but each of those four players knows their role very well.
00:18:16
Speaker
And I think Lissandra Martinez is one of the best possible center backs for this system. Very good ball player, very good defensively. He kind of can help make things go, particularly in a defense where the fullbacks are good but aren't, you know, world beaters like we've seen with some of the other favorites in this tournament.
00:18:33
Speaker
Yeah, well said. I think Molina and Taglifico are good players, 100%. Yes. But they are not elite. But that's fine. These are all good workers, good defenders. All of them can play with the ball a little bit.
00:18:44
Speaker
Martinez is so key, I think, in the build-up. And then Kuti Romero is ah head case. He's had a very disappointing season at Tottenham. Some of it is not his fault.
00:18:56
Speaker
He's kind of had issues with the club's leadership, rightfully so. Yeah. He at his best is everything you want in the center back, right? Covers ground, good at duels, can actually play with the ball, just ah an imperious, you know, player. And then at his worst, he can very likely, if you're going to circle a guy that could get a red card, he'd be at the top of a list every time.
00:19:20
Speaker
And, You know, he always has kind of used that edge, walked the line just enough for Argentina. And they need him to be on that line and to have that edge.
00:19:30
Speaker
And I think he is motivated because he needs to move away from Tottenham. And he needs this to still prove that he is one of the best center backs in the world. I think he should be good here.
00:19:42
Speaker
But if... You're circling things that couldn't like could go wrong if you're running this machine back. yeah I think Romero and Martinez have a little bit of of a weakness in terms of the best center backs in the world. They're both good. I think they can be the best, but you know, the other, you know, France and England have very, very good ones too. So are these guys at an elite level? They need to be.
00:20:06
Speaker
Leonardo Balaherty, also a center back option coming off the bench. Nicolas Otamendi is an option here for Argentina. He could be a break glass and emergency like set PC type guy going forward that I think could be pretty interesting here as well for Argentina.
00:20:20
Speaker
ah Moving into the midfield, this, as you said, is kind of where the strength is for this side. It's Rodrigo DePaul, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis McAllister. Anything you want that midfield to do a minute, I think they can do it.
00:20:35
Speaker
Yeah, DePaul and Fernandez can do a little bit of everything. i don't love that Rigo DePaul went to Inter Miami, but he's still been pretty effective there. He covers a lot of ground. yeah has to be, i think, more attacking-minded than he was Atletico Madrid, and that's a good thing for him because he's shown that he's still very solid.
00:20:56
Speaker
Enzo Fernandes did a little bit of everything at Chelsea this year. He's been deeper. He's been the 10 sometimes. And i think that's maybe not as great for Chelsea, but been good for his like development and ability to, again, round everything into his game.
00:21:10
Speaker
I'm feeling really good about that. And Alexis McAllister has kind of had a down year at Liverpool. I think that's coincided with their larger down year. He's a little older. He covers less ground. He got a little bit exposed in our slot system. I think that's going to be an issue, but he still does everything really well at a high level. It's a question of, does he have the legs to run the press for 90 minutes? Is this, there are a lot of good midfielders in reserve here. Do we need to mix and match a little bit? um But if there's enough running behind him,
00:21:42
Speaker
into Paul and Fernandez and there is, then maybe he still can be effective. And your point, I think that the key here is the cohesion, the chemistry, the balance of all of these guys and their, their, their knowledge together of where to go and when they should be able to be stout defensively and play through anyone. So I'm feeling good about these guys. um There, there might be more question marks than there were three years ago, but I don't know. Like, I think you just bank on the talent, like the class here and be fine.
00:22:10
Speaker
And the thing is, as you alluded to it there, there's options here as well. so you've got these three and then you've got lots of legs and and various things coming up the bench. So so right. Leandro Paredes, he's up there. He's back at Boca Juniors in Argentina now, but he can give you some of that passing midfield control for a spell.
00:22:25
Speaker
Nico Gonzalez, Nico Pass are two younger players who obviously weren't around in 2022, who I think Argentina are very excited about. Ezequiel Felacios, another destroyer, runner, legs type type option here.
00:22:36
Speaker
Argentina will mix and match in their midfield. And it's pretty likely, I think, that Enzo Fernandez is probably going to be asked to go 90. I don't think anybody else in this midfield is ever really going to be asked to go 90.
00:22:48
Speaker
And that means that the 60 or 55 or 70 that you play, you can go full gas 100%. Yeah, and that's another strength of this team that should help them in in everything they need to do. Yeah, I think Nico Gonzalez and Nico Paz are both very exciting. Gonzalez, especially as a defensive guy, that can kind of cover up some some gaps, cover a lot of ground. And he's still kind of growing at his passing, but he should be fine next to the guys here. So i think you're spot on. You should be getting running for 90 minutes out of this position.
00:23:21
Speaker
Two of the three attacking spots, Julián Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez, those are shoe-ins. They are playing at a high level is what Argentina will be hoping. They will be finishing. They will be creating chances.
00:23:31
Speaker
And we've alluded to them, but we haven't really dug into them yet on the Argentina section. And that is probably a credit to this Argentina project, Amit. But it's Lionel Messi. And I think we have to have the what is Lionel Messi on a high-level international stage conversation in 2026, right?
00:23:50
Speaker
I think Lionel Messi is still a fantastic player. I think he's good. I think it's a legitimate question of how he can best be deployed for this Argentina team. And it might be the question that determines how far this run goes.
00:24:06
Speaker
I think so. It's so hard to project. You watch him in MLS and he is still absolutely shredding MLS back lines and he's putting out highlight goals and assists every week. The dribbling is still there. The body faints, the legs, the,
00:24:21
Speaker
Then you look at the defensive work rate, and that just doesn't have to be there at Inter Miami. And listen, Inter Miami is an MLS team. They're not perfectly built to suit him. They are gettable at times, too. like They crashed out of the CCL, and even Messi couldn't save that, even though he was by far the the best player in the field. So like there is limitations at the highest level to trying to use him.
00:24:45
Speaker
Obviously, the 10 around him at Argentina are better than the 10 around him at Inter-Biami. So could you play him 90 minutes if you needed to? I think maybe. Can he run enough?
00:24:57
Speaker
I don't know. If you're playing him 50, 60 minutes or you're only playing him 30, what does that look like? Which 30? a lot variables here. Yeah, so I don't know what Scaloni does. think the attack and the knowledge, institutional knowledge, and the chemistry with Alvarez and Martinez, and I think the respect he demands from the other team's fullbacks, he's so much gravity. Even if he's not doing everything,
00:25:33
Speaker
they have to account for him at all times. That should free Alvarez and Martinez. I think you kind of just roll him out there, start him 60 minutes and then take him off in the group stage.
00:25:44
Speaker
If that doesn't see how that goes for two or three games, if it's not working as well and the legs are an issue, maybe you transition into a super sub in the knockout rounds because you need more running to just listen, we we're going to be a bit more brute forcey. We're going to rely on our midfield and,
00:26:01
Speaker
we'll talk about Alvarez and Martinez, good attacking players. Like they can get it done. And then you come in if we need you to solve it or to keep the ball, like either way. But I have a feeling that he's still at such a high level that like you can, you know,
00:26:18
Speaker
you could be more dangerous with him for more of the game with him on the field. And I think they need that.
Assessing Argentina's World Cup Chances
00:26:24
Speaker
um Maybe you have to sacrifice though. Like, Hey, you play 60 minutes, we're tied. And then he has to come off. Like, are you going to regret it? But I think you need him for, for more than 45 and most big games. So you don't want to put the pressure on him. And I think that's where,
00:26:40
Speaker
the whole team is so good that the pressure isn't on him, but also the ceiling is kind of on him. So the pressure is on him. Like he's, he's still that guy. And I don't, I don't know. Like he's generationally single-handedly and one of the greatest players we've ever seen. This is four years past his post prime and he's still one of the best creators on the ball in the world. I think that's proven.
00:27:08
Speaker
I think an important point here is whatever they ask Messi to do, I think he'll do it and there won't be any issues. And I think that's a big thing for Argentina, right? There was just obviously, we've talked about it. There are lots of periods for Argentina where the relationship with Messi wasn't great. He tried hard. The rest of the players didn't. They weren't, that's not going to be an issue here.
00:27:29
Speaker
The issue is simply figuring out what is the best way to deploy this player at this point in time. And I'm fascinated to see what answers Argentina come up with. I think they'll definitely be minutes managing. I don't think you want Messi on the field unless you need him on the field. And that's not, that's just from, you don't want him playing minutes when he doesn't have to play minutes because there are probably points in this tournament where you're want his minutes.
00:27:55
Speaker
That is a fair point, even if you're the most effective when he's on. Just in general, keeping him fresh for, again, what is that, five knockout games is yeah is a lot. So I think you're spot on there. And that's something Scaloni will have to manage.
00:28:08
Speaker
Listen, I think the good news is that... Even without him, if you put in a player like Tiago Almada, there's some other guys here that I think also on the front line can be dangerous.
00:28:19
Speaker
You still should be able to find goals in this attack. And let's talk about Julian Alvarez, who is kind of a full-on superstar at this point. Best player in Atletico Madrid. Their kind of entire offensive game plan is like, fully save us. Simeone's like, we're going to...
00:28:36
Speaker
ah like we have a bunch of good guys and we attack more than ever, but like this guy gets shots. He kind of floats off the front line. He's a free 10 or nine, depending on who he plays with. And I think with Martinez will be more of a kind of still the player. We know he's a runner. He's a getting behind, you know, still, I think not a hundred percent as speedy as he was in his prime, but can do that role. Well, that's a good sign for Argentina being able to break out and transition when they need to super dangerous.
00:29:05
Speaker
Alvarez can just go find the ball wherever he wants. And he's got a bunch of guys around him to, to cover and get him the ball. He's going to find it where you don't want him to get it. And he gets up shots. He's just simply electric with the ball at his feet. Sometimes he's even a bit too like, um, shot chasing heavy. Like he's he's looking for it too much and he needs to use that balance here.
00:29:27
Speaker
This is where, if Messi can go, you've just got too many guys on too many sides to deal with. I think that's going to be enough to trouble the highest level attacks. Against the non-highest level attacks, he should feast.
00:29:40
Speaker
Even without Messi at times, Alvarez is so good, he should be able to find some stuff. Like... That is a really, really exciting player. And I think he has taken on this mantle, I think, now of the best player on this team. They need him to be.
00:29:55
Speaker
he got a little hurt in the second leg of Atletico's tie against Arsenal. That totally blunted their chances. So they need him to be a superstar level. I think if you're looking at Argentina's best case, it's like...
00:30:08
Speaker
We've got seven guys that play this system super hard and we're super hard to beat. And then we've got two guys that can create magic whenever we, not whenever we need them to, but like in the ways we need them to, that's a, that's a winning formula that can get you all the way to a, you know, a final and a, you know, maybe a title.
00:30:29
Speaker
Is it as reliable as the other top teams? No, but like they're that good. So it's a lot of pressure on two guys, but I ah obviously those two guys are good enough to get it. And you're looking for, for Laotaro Martinez to finish, right? Like, yeah, if they're going to create chances for him, for him, like, yeah, that's going to be huge for Argentina. Uh, one final guy I wanted to mention in attack is somebody that's going on the back end of the squad here. And and that's Flacco Lopez. He's been in flying form for Palmetas. I think he'll make the 26 for Argentina.
00:30:58
Speaker
He's a traditional brute force type striker. He's a break glass in case of emergency option. He might only play 15 minutes in the tournament, but, But if it's the 15 minutes when Argentina are chasing a goal, let's see if he's up for that at the highest level. But I think it's the type of informed player that can have a role at this type of World Cup.
00:31:15
Speaker
um The Argentine depth, I think we'll see in this group stage. I think this group stage is really going to allow Argentina to kind of work their way into it. We're going to talk about the other three teams here.
00:31:26
Speaker
um But I think argent like having legs in the group stage is going to be very important because that's how they're going play. per predominantly against Austria and against Algeria. So rotating guys through it and working those depth pieces in, I think is going to be big.
00:31:39
Speaker
Yeah. Some of those guys you're looking at Giuliano Simeone, Diego, the coach's son, Atletico Madrid, I think a very useful ball progression winger. He's not elite, but again, if he's even in Messi's role, he can just kind of carry the ball. He's not going to be like a full on crater, but good runner, Ken press. um I think also Prestiani at Benfica,
00:32:01
Speaker
Interesting player had a had a ah problem this year in the Champions League against Madrid. He gets in the squad because i he's fringy. yeah He's got a two game suspension hanging over him, too. And so, like, you're kind of bringing him to play those two games. If you're bringing it, we'll see.
00:32:15
Speaker
And then how about Garnaccio at Chelsea? He's fringy, too, right? He seems like right on that level. Yeah, there's some, I think what Scaloni does with the back end of the attacking options, i think will be pretty interesting here for Argentina. um And because I think those guys will play like, I mean, it was really good for Villa. I think there might be a shout that he's getting in one of these back spots here. Yeah. um We'll see. We'll see. yeah There's a lot of guys here that could be something. Maybe this is something we'll keep an eye on once we get to the first two games for Argentina, because some of these guys could matter.
00:32:50
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. I think it boils down to this for Argentina, for me, Amit. This thing worked in Qatar because this team bought in 100%. They played 100%. They worked 100%. Everything felt like the dial was tuned to 100% and it worked because that.
00:33:02
Speaker
everything felt like the dial was turned to one hundred percent and it worked because of that Against the best of the best, and and I'm not talking against ah Austria in the group stage. I'm not even talking about Uruguay in a potential round of 32.
00:33:16
Speaker
When they come up against a fellow top five team in the world, if any of those 100% drop to 95 or 90, I think they might be in trouble.
00:33:27
Speaker
And it's hard to do all of that 100% over again. Maybe it's twice that you have to do that over the course of World Cup. Maybe it's three times you have to do that. I think it's really hard to get that all right again.
00:33:38
Speaker
But it's a point that I've made a lot over the last three and a half years. I don't think Argentina can be your pick to win the World Cup this time around. But I really don't want to have to be the team that has to beat them.
00:33:50
Speaker
Like somebody still has to beat this team. You have to take the crown from the champions if you're going to be the World Cup. winner. And that I think is what they are playing with. And that's the magic that they're counting on to try and somehow some way run this back.
00:34:06
Speaker
They're well positioned as anyone to try and do it. Like they're right there. I agree with your assessment of this team wholeheartedly. I think they have such a high floor as a quarter finalist. I think they, they're not going to walk there. They're going to have to get their way there, but I really believe it. And then I'm just excited to see like,
00:34:24
Speaker
They could win three grimy games. I think the most likely outcome for this team is they're getting bounced in a shootout or a extra time. Maybe the quarterfinals, maybe the semifinals.
00:34:36
Speaker
I want to know what happens in that yeah quarterfinal against Portugal. If we get there, I just really, really want to see it. I really want to see Messi Ronaldo. I really want to see Martinez or Scaloni. I want to see it all. Like can't,
00:34:50
Speaker
I think they can get that. And then my hunch is that a semifinal would probably be where the Magic just... I think, as you said, you have to beat them, but someone can beat them fair and square.
00:35:03
Speaker
But let's see. I mean... then The math is like, say, not the math, but like the the way things go, like sometimes when you try to defend your title, you kind of just get dumped on ceremoniously ahead of schedule.
00:35:16
Speaker
I think this Argentina team, to your point, is kind of protected themselves against that. But it just it it happens when you don't expect it. like we We need to be aware, and we are aware of that possibility that maybe this maybe Austria punks them. Maybe something you meet Spain, and then it like it goes out earlier than expected. So it's so fascinating for a defending title team every time. And i like you could talk me into a ton of ranges for those outcomes. I think there's, you know, what? The odds have them at 15%, 20%-ish to win
00:35:49
Speaker
twenty percent ish to win it all It's all there. I don't know how the movie ends, but I want to watch it. Right. yeah That I think is the overarching takeaway with Argentina. And I think one final point that that you made, the whole mental games side of it has been big for Argentina.
00:36:06
Speaker
It can also go wrong. And I think that's something to watch with this team. If things spiral a little bit, not, within the dressing room, but on the field, there could be a 15 minute stretch where they kind of lose their minds. And that could be really dangerous for them against the top, top teams in Europe.
00:36:25
Speaker
Something to keep an eye on. that has always been simmering for this Argentina team. And I think once they won, they kind of have been playing with house money in the best way. They're like, well, we want it all. We could do whatever we want. And that kind of has helped them like keep their style up. But there's also that flip side that we haven't seen yet, but we know is there. And they're trying to stave that off for this tournament. But you know it's there. It's like, well, we we already won. like We've got nothing to lose. And then... that But that's what that we will see. It's so fascinating. Yeah, I'm going to make a third final point on Argentina now. One more final point on Argentina. Whatever they do in this tournament will never take away from what happened in 2022. And I think that's that house money part that you're talking about here.
00:37:11
Speaker
Argentina could literally go and lose all three group stage games. It's not going to happen. It would still not take any of the magic away from 2022. The legacies have been made. the The legends have been written. Like Argentina 2022 will always be that. Now, can they somehow write another chapter?
00:37:31
Speaker
That's the the big question here. All right, you ready to
Austria's High-Pressing Prospects
00:37:34
Speaker
go out to the stables? maybe Maybe get yourself a horse to ride on here. These are my guys. i love them. I know that you said earlier in the podcast that you were going to leave the dark horse term out. I have no problem using the dark horse term and bringing back your dark horse history because it's your friends from Austria. They got the dark horse stink before the 2024 euro. It looked like it was going so well.
00:37:57
Speaker
They topped the group with France and Netherlands. ah They only lost to France. They beat the Netherlands. They beat Poland. And then they just got vibed by Turkey. And then the dark horse stink hit right in round of 16 against Turkey. seventh world cup appearance for austria they were third place back in 1954 but this is their first time at the world cup since 1998 they have not been out of the group stage since 1982 they were impressive in qualifying six one and one against admittedly pretty low tier opposition bosnia romania cyprus and san marino uh ralph ragnik of it the austria manager it is the red bull energy drink soccer man himself
00:38:33
Speaker
This is the guy that was the director of sport at RB Leipzig and kind of the ah the whole project, including Salzburg, Bragantino in South America. um He kind of is the modern, not innovator solely, but like idea driver behind a lot of Red Bulls.
00:38:53
Speaker
philosophy and vision for the game and this style that is predicated on high pressing and transitions and duels and high volume. And he has been here since 2022. He was the interim at Manchester United, not a job I think he meant to have. And he took this job and Bayern Munich came and called.
00:39:14
Speaker
And I think it wouldn't have been out of place for him to get that job. And he chose to to stay here. And I think... He's always kind of been more of ideas guy than pure manager guy. like He wanted to be a director of football, not necessarily the manager at Leipzig, at United. That's why they brought him in.
00:39:33
Speaker
and I think he this role has suited him because... it's not as hands-on as 38 weeks or the whole year of like match, match, match. I think he kind of has implemented his top-down director football at the national level for Austria, which is very much influenced by this this Red Bull idea. Salzburg is a massive club getting a lot of money ah in the Austrian league.
00:40:02
Speaker
I think that This is very much his project, like the whole thing. And it's very cool because they, you know, have bought in and this team fits his style so well. I think this is one of the most idealistic teams. I just like managers in the whole thing.
00:40:21
Speaker
The style of it. Can you can you boil it down for us? What when you and I use that catchphrase energy drink soccer? What exactly are we talking Yeah, it's about getting more out of athletes without necessarily being nice on the ball. And the idea was, this whole idea is that if we can run and run everywhere and make the game duels instead of possession systems, we could disrupt anything you want to do We can press and we can press in a way that hasn't been seen before. We give you no space. We turn the game into pinball, into bumper cars, and then our athletes are a little bit better than yours and a little bit smarter than yours at playing the system.
00:41:05
Speaker
We bump, we pin ball and the ball comes to us. Then we go to goal and we just keep doing it. And we do it so many times. We make so much money. we at some point we score goals and that is the key thing about red bull soccer that has always been um i think at the heart of it is that the best teams have had elite strikers to convert a high volume of chances it's never been like you're or sometimes you you see guys have monster numbers in these systems when you have a really great striker sometimes the system is meant to overcome
00:41:41
Speaker
um a lack of pure striking talent or pure attacking talent through volume this team specifically is in that mold because somewhere in the style in the model uh you need a goal how do we do that well the attacking talent is a little bit questionable yeah We'll get to that in a minute. It feels kind of golden generation-y here for Austria. This is a tricky group. They're going to be tested, but the style here gives you a floor that it makes it feel like Austria are a pretty safe bet to make the round of 32. And then from there, all right, maybe they'll take their chances at a heavy hitter.
00:42:19
Speaker
Yeah, the midfield is great. The defense is great. These are basically like the Germany B team of Bundesliga guys. It's everyone plays in Bundesliga because they came from the Austria system. Like Austria has totally merged its development pathway into the German game.
00:42:41
Speaker
There's a lot of money in Germany. ah There's a lot of Red Bull money in Germany, a lot of that Red Bull money in Austria. And the other thing about the whole Red Bull project is about making money more than necessarily winning because you take young players with a lot of tools, you put them in a system that's super high volume. Hey, all those stats look really good. And then you sell them to teams that are better and they like then they're supposed to go do well in a a better team.
00:43:07
Speaker
It's... of money-making model, not necessarily a winning model, but Austria, I think is the key developer here or the the winner here of all of that. And the other thing that should just be said at this point, and we've said this before in previous podcasts, the reason why Red Bull likes this soccer is because the whole idea is that if you drank Red Bull, you could play this system too. You could run for 90 minutes like a bat out of hell. And that is the underpinning of it all.
00:43:35
Speaker
So in goal for Austria, we've got alex Alexander Schlager. He's at Red Bull Salzburg. He's the first choice. He's a shot stopper. Kind of just there as a goalkeeper. Yeah, I think you would maybe like a better Bundesliga goalkeeper than Schlager at Salzburg. But he, you know, very much of the system is going to know what to do. I think if games get in high volume, hopefully he can steal you a few saves.
00:43:57
Speaker
So a bit I remember David Abila as a star central midfielder. And then I remember him as a ah pretty good left back. What's he doing these days? He's kind of transitioned into his twilight of his career post-post-prime as a very big, imposing center back who still, you know, very strong, very good in the air, except he doesn't really play that much for Madrid. He's kind of just like the the fun vibes guy. Like, what is he, the fifth or sixth center back in Madrid? I don't know when he plays, ah but everyone seems to like him. Like, I think he's still...
00:44:33
Speaker
a solid player. I would like to see where his legs are at, especially for the system, but there's no question the guy can read the game and he still is. He's still big and strong. Like that'll play.
00:44:46
Speaker
Didn't play in Euro 22 before we'll be here at the world cup. Feels like that could be a big boost. Take me through the rest of the defense. Yeah, Kevin Donso is at Tottenham. He is the third center back at Tottenham behind Romero and Van Der Ven. He's not great playing out of the back, but he's a no-nonsense header of the ball. You're going to have a theme here of like the guys are physical, can duel, can win the ball, great at that kind of stuff, exactly for the system. There's a very good level here what you want.
00:45:13
Speaker
um I think then the fullbacks, there's ah some questions here for Ragnik to sort out. He mixes and matches. Conrad Leimer is at Bayern Munich. He is a great right back. He's originally a center midfielder. I don't know if Ragnik is going to use him at right back. Otherwise, he can play Stefan Posh, who is ah in the Bundesliga. He's a solid right back, center back tweener. So I don't know how that works. And then at left back, I think there's a bit of a weakness. It's Philip Mwene.
00:45:42
Speaker
He's at mines of relegation in the Buddhist League are kind of a little bit worse, but he's a good physical, like fast outside back, not great at anything else. How does he mix and match limer? I think is the question. Can he play him in the midfield where he's more effective or does he need him ah the back line and where he's kind of had a good season at Byron?
00:46:03
Speaker
um This is, this is interesting. There's all, there's enough depth here. There's two backup center backs, Philip Leonhardt, Marco Frito. They're, they're, they're going to be fine here. I think what to expect is that all of these guys can play the system very well.
00:46:16
Speaker
And the limer question then kind of transitions into the midfield because if he's going at right back, that creates one set of midfield. And if he's in the midfield, then you might be a whole right back, but that creates a different set of midfield. But the midfield options check all of the the energy soccer boxes.
00:46:33
Speaker
yeah and I think this is the strength of the team, is a guy like Leimer and then your pair of central central mids and Zaver Schlager and Nikola Seewald. They were the heart of Austria's buzz that I gave them and that everyone saw in them as they played well. And I think the model works well, especially in a group stage at the Euro 24, is these guys are just...
00:46:54
Speaker
an engine, the wood chipper, the paper shredder. They do everything. They control the game. They win duels, but they also can play. These are just two... ah Elite is a tough word because they're not Premier League, but like RB Leipzig midfield guys. And I think you also, if you need defense, they've got Florian Grilich, who's more of a stationary holder.
00:47:15
Speaker
the The third key, Schlager, Seewald, Maybe it's Limer, who, i again, I really like, is Christoph Baumgartner, who is the 10, who is like a classic Red Bull-style 10. He's not like the creative, like...
00:47:30
Speaker
ah silky unlock you with the final ball. He's like a shadow striker 10 runs, gets in, gets off of second balls, picks up shots, dribbles, can pass. He's a high volume chance creator. 10. He's a very, very good player also at RB Leipzig. So I think those three is your midfield engine. And this is where you're expecting this team to press, win the ball, go to goal, be able to control things at their pace with their their blend.
00:47:58
Speaker
This is what you hang your hat on here. And it helps a lot, I think, Amit, that the style that these guys are playing, particularly for these key, bit like you mentioned, their midfield pivot, both playing at Red Bull Leipzig, what they're doing at the club level is exactly what they're being asked to do here at the national team.
00:48:15
Speaker
With this style in particular, I think that's crucial. Yeah, and that's where you like the shared DNA. um Marcel Sabitzer, I think, is a name that ah a lot of people familiar with. He was at Borussia Dortmund. He still is at Borussia Dortmund. He's going to start here, I think, as the left attacking mid. It's kind of 4-2-3-1.
00:48:34
Speaker
ah He's a little bit older. He's 32. He's not quite as fast. But listen, you need some guys to have some quality of the final third when you play this style. So the ball gets to them and then they cross or get shots. He's still, i think, the classiest player. Him and Baumgartner in the 11. That should be something. The right wing, I think, is kind of the maybe the 10th or 11th best spot in the 11 behind right back.
00:48:58
Speaker
It's Romano Schmid, Patrick Wimmer, Bremen and Wolfsburg. These guys are fine. ah They can play the system. I don't think they're going to necessarily wow anyone. To me, on top of everything we talked about, there is an X factor here.
00:49:11
Speaker
And that's Carney Chukwameca. He's 22 at Dortmund. He hasn't fully cracked the starting lineup. Only eight starts this season. There's a lot of buzz within the Austria fan base around this guy. They're really excited at him. He is, i don't, think as good as Baumgartner, but he's profiling as like a 10 that gets a lot of shots, can dribble.
00:49:32
Speaker
He's a little raw, but you watch his tape and the guy is great at receiving, great at taking on, making things happen. Is there room for him? is Is he a super sub? How does Ragnik use him?
00:49:44
Speaker
Can he elevate Austria? And especially before we as we talk about the striker position, can he get shots? Can he get goals? Can he could kind of raise the ceiling of this team from what they are to where they might need to be.
00:49:58
Speaker
And he's also important because he's an English youth international that chose to play for Austria, right? That's a big get for Austria to get somebody out of, out of the England youth system into this team. All right. So this team is going to create chances. The style simply suggests that they have to create chances. They're full of bonus league level talent. They're really solid in every position. All right. Who's going to finish the chances of it.
00:50:18
Speaker
It's Marko Arnautovic, still the striker. Oh, no. that's um That's not great. I'm glad we got Stoke City legend Marko Arnautovic still going in World Cup After Dark in 2026.
00:50:31
Speaker
Listen, ah you really don't want him to be your starting striker, I think, at this age. He is super limited. He's 37. He went from where did he go inter Milan I think Bayern at some point to to Stoke and now he's at Red Star Belgrade like don't know like that's not that the courage actually want but listen the other two strikers are Mikko Grzegorich at Bronby Sasa Kolodzic at po in Poland at LASK um Yeah, i this is a question mark. Listen, these guys are tall.
00:51:06
Speaker
Arnautovic is 6'4", Gregorich is Kolajic is You plug in a guy to stand up there and just hope that the ball bounces to him and he scores? I mean...
00:51:17
Speaker
I love this team. I love the model. We've painted the model. I've upped the model. I've upped the Red Bull. I've drank the Red Bull. But wait, can you buy it with these guys? Can you?
00:51:30
Speaker
it's It's tough because it feels like, like you said, when this system and this style of play has worked at a club level, it has worked with the highest level striker that you can find and with a guy that is number padding.
00:51:46
Speaker
And at this day and age, like is Mark Arnautovic about to score five goals at a world cup? I don't think so. Are these other guys, Grigorich, Klajic, like 6'7", Klajic? I feel like you're just kind of putting them up there and and maybe trying to play some. It's just... Yeah. like yeah Listen, it's a great plan B, and maybe Grigorich is the guy. He's at Bronby. like Listen, I've watched some some some tape of Bronby stuff. like he It's easy to look good there, but...
00:52:17
Speaker
This to me is so like frustrating because I really, really like this team and maybe they'll find goals, but I think so much pressure is on the midfielders to to also of score because I don't think you can count on, when you're especially when your model is based on dynamism and then it's these guys against the best teams you need to beat. Let's talk about it.
00:52:37
Speaker
Mark Arnautovic versus Lissandro Martinez and Kuti Romero. choose of the Argentina guys. Right. So, so like, that's just where the whole proof of concept to me is ah is hard to get over that final hump. And that's where I think,
00:52:53
Speaker
Go ahead. Yeah, and here's the thing with this is Austria's path to anything beyond the round of 32 probably depends on their ability to beat Argentina or Spain, or at least to take a point off Argentina, right? Could they win this group by running up the score on Algeria and Jordan and holding Argentina?
00:53:15
Speaker
They could, but Argentina also plays Jordan on the last day, so information suggests that Argentina will know how many goals they need to get, and they might be able to go get them. So if I basically you're going to get your proof of concept, can this system with this group of players do it against a top five team in the world?
00:53:32
Speaker
If the answer is yes, quarterfinals, semifinals, all that is in play. If the answer is no, they're going to make the round of 32 and they're going go out and they're probably going to give us some memories along the way. I think so. And listen, we you listen on our spade podcast. We said, I think the Spain team is a little vulnerable. I think they're ready to be punked. We circled Columbia as a team that could punk them in the run of 16.
00:53:56
Speaker
Listen, I think if it's Austria, Spain, I think Austria is going to try to red bull the the Spain. Like it could, it could be great. I think their midfield is going to try to overrun Argentina's midfield.
00:54:08
Speaker
but I'll take the Spanish front three any day of the week. And that's where, especially if Luminium mall is healthy. So listen, maybe, maybe the bounces go well. And the point of red bull soccer is to create so many chances and get them first. And then things can go your way. So,
00:54:23
Speaker
I love this team. i really do. I'm just, I have trouble with the draw and the striker position to give them my full dark horse backing.
Algeria's Technical Style and Key Players
00:54:32
Speaker
And I think I'm a little burned from what I saw in that, that a round of 32 or round of 16 at the Euro against Turkey, a team they should be better than.
00:54:40
Speaker
All right. a bit so So you didn't saddle up on Austria. Can I interest you in Algeria? Oh, I like these guys too, Austin. Listen, this Algeria team is a fun project. They missed the World Cup in 2018 and 2022. They kind of aged out of some guys. It was Mahrez's generation.
00:55:01
Speaker
Ryan Mahrez is still here, but they've retooled everything around him. I think you've seen a total resurgence in North African soccer. Some of that same stuff that applies to Morocco applies here. They've got a lot of young, exciting guys, and these guys are good on the ball.
00:55:15
Speaker
This is a team that is good on the ball. So a lot of hype to be had. Yeah, and I think there's it's interesting because Algeria are this really interesting case of there's kind of two schools of thought in this day and age in North African soccer, right? You've got...
00:55:30
Speaker
This Egypt, Tunisia style of grime, muck, defend, make life hard and see how far that gets you. And then you've got this kind of new age Moroccan style that's coming through, which is no, we don't have to do that. We can create talented players and we can be talented and we can play. And by playing, we get better.
00:55:50
Speaker
And I think you've almost seen Algeria shift from that older school, more defensive style that honestly left them short of the World Cup in 2018 and 2022 into this newer age, which, as we saw at the AFCON admit, they were impressive, right? They blew through the group stage. I had a Burkina Fastest, we had an Equatorial Gade.
00:56:11
Speaker
They beat DR Congo and then they met their physical match against Nigeria, who, again, are at the World Cup, but are very good when they want to be. Right. And I think this proof of concept is there for Algeria to keep going down this path because they've seen how high Morocco have gotten.
00:56:28
Speaker
And Vladimir Petkovic, who's an experienced international manager, he knows the middle tier of international football, had a very long tenure at Switzerland. is known for control of the ball, set up the structures, but then kind of let these talented players, technical players, do talented technical things.
00:56:46
Speaker
It's exciting to watch. They, in the midfield, at the fullbacks, on the wings, have a bunch of guys who are silky with the ball. It's not quite as good as Morocco, and I think they're missing some of Morocco's heft and stardom. I think specifically when you look at a guy ah like Atraf Hakimi,
00:57:07
Speaker
But these guys can play with the ball. And there's such a fascinating group for them because I think Austria and Argentina are two very good off-the-ball teams that are going to try to bully them. We're going to see how it's going to hold up.
00:57:21
Speaker
But they should back themselves. when We're talking about the fourth team here, at Jordan. So i think it's I think this team could be dangerous in a round of 32. And honestly, one thing let's talk about...
00:57:34
Speaker
in a weird spot to talk about it is third place better than second place. If you're avoiding Spain, maybe. Yeah. You, you take that roulette, right. And you see kind of where it comes out and which first place team you end up landing. Goalkeeper is a weakness here though. Amit, you the dawn he got picked on at that AFCON.
00:57:51
Speaker
He did. He was weak on set pieces. That was Nigeria's, I think, first thing to circle on the team sheet. And, um, Listen, he's in seund he's in the second league and in Spain. He's ah he's obviously Zinedine Zidane's son, but he is a below-replacement-level international goalkeeper. They used to have Ryaz Mboli. He retired in February. He was 40. I'm not sure they were counting on him.
00:58:16
Speaker
Alexis Gwendouz was supposed to be the starter at AFCON. but he got hurt. And then the job went to Luca Zidane. i I don't know exactly what's going to happen here. There's also two young so two or three youngsters that could get the third spot. um I think Petkovic probably wants Gwenduz to be the trusted guy, but even his profile isn't also a star.
00:58:39
Speaker
I think this is one thing where, yeah, you have the silky style, but the goalkeeper might be definitely something teams are trying to explain on set pieces. And that's going to put pressure on the defense. Yeah, who is... This is a better defense than I was expecting, right? Again, I think they were not... This is not the grimy Algeria of the 2010s. This is a much more modern Algeria. But they still kind of have Aisamandi, who has over 100 caps and has been through a lot of this project. He's at Lille.
00:59:08
Speaker
He's a bit slow, but he's ah he's a very savvy center back. Just enough physicality, but a good passer. And then Rami Ben Sabani is a a left back who plays center back, which speaks to the position of center back in the squad. Outside of Mandi, there's not great high-level stuff. And Ben Sabani is such a good player. I think he does fine at center back. But behind him...
00:59:31
Speaker
I'm not liking what I'm seeing. Sometimes you see Petkovic play with three, but then he's got to use Zinedine Belade, who is, I think, a drop-off. This is another area where i'm I'm worried about this team. I think the midfield are great. The fullbacks are great. The wingers are great.
00:59:46
Speaker
But Mondi and Ben Sabani, with not a lot of help behind them, can you exploit that? The answer is going to be hopefully yes for the other teams in this group is the the attacking talent to be able to do that. But you mentioned the full back submit. That's where kind of this whole attacking thesis starts. Yeah.
01:00:04
Speaker
Yeah, a player we had kind of big-upped before the AFCON is Ryan Nouri. He was at Wolves making his move to Manchester City. His move at Manchester City hasn't quite worked out, I think.
01:00:16
Speaker
Defensively, he's still coming along. and He's kind of like a shiny toy that you use for offense when you need it. And Nico O'Reilly had a great season at Manchester City. Look, he might need to move out to get some more playing time, but the stuff is still there. He's an electric, electric dribbler, take on artist at a left back. Is that what you want your left back to be? Sometimes. And so I think Algeria's style is predicated on the overload, on him getting up, joining the left side, freeing the left winger, which is going to Fares Chibi to go run and basically be a second striker. He's kind of a wing back. And that's why sometimes they play the back three is so that he doesn't have to worry about defending. think Teams are going to try to make him defend, but when he gets involved, like they need his stardom to unlock defenses.
01:01:01
Speaker
ah On the right side, Rafiq Belgali. ah I don't think he's very highly rated. He's kind of just a physical holder. But hey, Algeria needs someone to do some defending outside of the center back. So like I think it's fine when Petkovic plays him.
01:01:16
Speaker
to just kind of be a no-nonsense right back. And you can't overload on both sides anymore at the international game unless you're like PSG or Bayern. So that's fine. And the holding midfielders here are also pretty big, given the questions that you've raised in defense and goal.
01:01:31
Speaker
Yeah, and that's where I think they've got the physicality they need. This team, right, you know you're going to be good on the ball, but can these guys kind of bang around a little bit, and muck around a little bit? Hicham, Boudouawi, Anis, like his game.
01:01:45
Speaker
Good defender. The second spot is what's tough. They were hoping for Ismael Benassir to kind of help them. He's been injured all year. He was at Milan, got loaned to Zagreb. There was a whole controversy about Zagreb picking up the bye, not really wanted at Milan. Yeah. not a good discourse for a guy who's a little bit old or not super old but when he's healthy i mean he just has enough defense he's a great passer of the ball abudu ali benacer pivot good enough to hang at the level with but passably with argentina and austria
01:02:19
Speaker
If it's off of him then you're you're counting on guys like Ramiz Zeruki at 20, Nabil Bentaleb, who's very slow at Lille. So ah you really want these two to to be ah to be available.
01:02:31
Speaker
And Raid Mora is still kicking around in the attack. Yeah, I think he's transitioned well to being a Saudi league type guy as just a, you know, attacking offensive minded way or still elite. I think at cutting inside on his left foot, getting shots up, he's he can produce that good take on artists. Listen, Algeria really want to not attack with speed. They want to set up their shell and so that I, Nori and Mahrez can get very structured one-on-ones. That is what they want. He's still good at that. um We mentioned Fares Chivey. He's at Eintracht Frankfurt. He's more of the the second striker left midfielder.
01:03:12
Speaker
The player to watch here really that could lift Algeria into actually being dangerous is Ibrahim Maza. He is at the 10. He is at Bayer Leverkusen. He's getting up a ton of shots, really good dribbler.
01:03:25
Speaker
Obviously, Bundesliga stats, you've got to take with a grain of salt. But this guy is getting rumors to go to Manchester City. He was a bit raw, I think, at the AFCON. But even in the past half year, he has like taken off and everyone's eyes are are are on this guy.
01:03:41
Speaker
If he can get shots from Mares, from Chivey, from i Nori, and kind of unlock the defenses the way Algeria need to play, that could be the elevator.
01:03:54
Speaker
And an attack? The strikers? Yeah, Mohamed Amoura is not like a real tall number nine. Neither is Amin Gouiri. Both these guys are good. And I think this is part of Algeria's thing is they don't really have like the the bruiser number nine. They're speedy number nines.
01:04:11
Speaker
But so when you play the control ball, like then you're not really crossing them. You're trying to interchange like overloads. Like they drop in, they play off, like they can get shots and turn, try to get the ball to feet. So I think the soccer Algeria is going to play is really pretty and nice.
01:04:26
Speaker
does that work against super physical teams and that's where a team like Nigeria can kind of play them play them off. it's tough It's a tough group for them, but... when it looks good, it could look really great. um I'm, I'm intrigued by these guys. I think Amor and Guiri are good players. Like there's an 11 here that is talent for talent, just as good as Austria is maybe even a touch better, but is the physical limitations going to hurt them? Is the center backs, is the goalkeeper going to hurt them? That's where I think Nigeria picked on them. How much has that improved in six months?
01:05:02
Speaker
Argentina opening game set pieces, like just circle highlight everything you got to do. Because if you're talking to me about a team that is weakish at center back has some question marks in goal. That's absolutely a spot that it feels like the opponents in this group are going to look to try and take advantage of.
01:05:19
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's not at the international level a good weakness to have. It's not a good weakness anywhere, but you can kind of paper over that in some other ways. Again, I really like this project. I think they're set up well for the next four, eight years. I think these guys are going to keep growing in stature.
01:05:37
Speaker
I think this team is just that maturity level and being able to grime at knockout soccer. I'm not sure they can do it at the highest level. I'm not sure this is the type of team that can scalp a better team.
01:05:52
Speaker
Can they play credibly with the ball and be in the game? Yes. Can they even chase a lead credibly? Yes. But defending at the highest level in the knockout round, I'm skeptical.
Jordan's World Cup Debut Challenges
01:06:06
Speaker
I would love to see this team against another group. Let's see in third place. Maybe they get a decent matchup. Like there are some first place teams that profile. Okay. For them. So.
01:06:19
Speaker
i I really like this team. i do think. Argentina and Austria are also tough matchups for them. Stylistically. Yeah. One key, though, is that they have shown that they can score goals against lesser opposition, right? They have a 7-0 friendly win here in their back pocket that they got against Guatemala.
01:06:35
Speaker
Jordan probably pose a bit more of a threat there, but that's going to be huge for this Algeria team. Second game against Jordan, they're probably going to want to run up the score because that could be huge for their hopes of getting out in one of those third place spots and having the goal differential necessary to do that.
01:06:50
Speaker
Fourth and final team in the group is Jordan. They are World Cup debutants. The only time they ever really got close to the World Cup was in 2014. They made it all the way to the Intercontinental Playoff and then they lost 5-0 at home against Uruguay and drew 0-0 away when the series was already set.
01:07:04
Speaker
Jamal Salami has been in charge since June of 2024. He is Moroccan, has previous experience managing in the club game in Morocco. He has brought that Moroccan system of youth technicality investment in the youth setups.
01:07:18
Speaker
He's building on the success of Hussein Amouda, another Moroccan manager who led them to a runner-up finish at the Asian Cup in 2023. In qualifying, they topped their second round group, which also consisted of Saudi Arabia and Tajikistan and Pakistan.
01:07:31
Speaker
They only took one point each off of Iraq and South Korea in the third round, but they ended up finishing a point clear of Iraq because they cleaned up against Palestine, Oman, and Kuwait. That's what got them here.
01:07:43
Speaker
um They stylistically are one of them it a long list of kind of mid to low tier Asian teams that can play against teams that are at their level or below it, but they find it tough when that level goes up and the level in this group is very much going up.
01:08:00
Speaker
Yeah, this is a team that I remember when we were asking who's better between Jordan or Iraq. And i still think Iraq is a little bit better than them. But listen, they they got ahead of them.
01:08:11
Speaker
They are exactly what you said, right? Good at getting past the tiers below them in Asian soccer. It's just hard to see it translating with the players they have, right? Yeah.
01:08:21
Speaker
And the players that they have is also a big question here because three of probably their best four players are dealing with injury concern. And I think that leads to there being more questions than answers. Yassad Al-Naymat, who is one of their two best players for sure, he tore his ACL at the Arab Cup in December.
01:08:38
Speaker
He is 100% going to miss the World Cup. Ali Olwan, who is another key attacking player, hasn't played since February. And Isan Haddad, who is kind of a attacking-ish fullback, tore Achilles last year, and he's also trying to get back.
01:08:52
Speaker
Olwan and Haddad are in the long list. I think they'll make the squad, but injury concerns for a team that is already lacking in depth like Jordan is not where you want to be at this point. That leaves Moussa Altamari at Rons.
01:09:06
Speaker
He is their best player. He's a right winger, likes to cut inside. He's tricky. If he could have created a little two-man game stuff with Al Naimat, we could have been talking. That, Amit, is a combination that we saw very successful at the Asian Cup and throughout qualifying.
01:09:20
Speaker
When Jordan were able to do things, it was those two guys kind of playing off each other, doing things. You take one of those two guys out and things just get that much harder. Yeah, those guys are of the level. Like, they are very silky and they can combine. i think Alnaimad and Tamari are good players. That is just a bummer here because then you're like, even if you're playing against the ball on the counter, that was our answer. What is our answer? It was actually very effective at the the Asian Cup too. Like,
01:09:48
Speaker
Tamari could play. Al Naimat is is ah fine of the level striker, but it's ah it's enough. Now you're drawn dead a bit, right? Yeah, and with no Al Naimat, Ali Olwan, who would would kind of step into that role, is questionable. There's some young attackers to watch, but the contrast here, Amit, right? We talked about young attackers to watch for Algeria, and now we're doing it at kind of a level below for Jordans. So you've got 20-year-old Ibrahim Sabra.
01:10:16
Speaker
He's very raw. He's at Locomotive Zagreb in Croatia. He could get the spot at striker. Odell Fakhouri is also 20. He's at Pyramids. He could be an option. And then Ali Azazay, who's at Al-Shabaab in Saudi Arabia, has turned some heads.
01:10:31
Speaker
But again, turning some heads and being at that level, we're just talking about players that just are at a different level than the other players in this group. And you're looking to kind of try and catch lightning in a bottle and attack because the recipe in the midfield and defense is pretty simple. I fully expect to see, right? Three center backs, wing backs that are floating back into defense. Um, Yazan Al Arab is at Seoul in South Korea. He's a big boy. They'll start centrally. He can do things on set pieces. They might need that.
01:10:59
Speaker
Abdallah Nassib plays in Iraq. He'll be another body centrally. He's older. Ahmad Asaf at Al Hussein is the right back. Moranad Abu Taha is a bit more of an attacking option at left back.
01:11:10
Speaker
And then century, you're looking at Noor Al Radwe, who's at Selangor in Malaysia. He's a key engine in central midfield. And then Nizar Al Rashidon plays in Qatar, and he should partner him The recipe here, Amit, is not an easy one to pull off because they need those guys who are at a lower level to be effective defensively. And then they need those guys who are at a lower level, largely an attack, to be effective with what is probably going to be very few chances.
01:11:37
Speaker
And that, in a group that contains the defending champions and a high ocine octane Austria side and a very good and growing Algeria side, is just not the recipe you want to be trying to pulling off.
01:11:51
Speaker
It's tough. And listen, you're you're looking at Algeria. You're trying to say, hey, we know you can play with the ball, but if we put five back, we work really hard and we make it tough for you. They could talk themselves into maybe a 0-0, but a point isn't enough. They need three somewhere. And even if they can defend above their level with with with you know as much grime as possible...
01:12:14
Speaker
the goal scoring here is very, very tricky. And the second they commit any resources, especially with, with, with numbers going forward with the wingbacks, like then what, like Iraq has a much more credible against the ball game style. They need the ball and they're just not going to have it against these three teams. Yeah.
01:12:34
Speaker
And you put this into that Red Bull energy soccer wood chipper into that Argentina buy-in. Like I could see a scenario in which Argentina gets six points and can maybe take, but we talked about the danger of finishing second in this group. right? It's staring at Spain in the round of 32.
01:12:52
Speaker
So there's not really even going to be an opportunity for a game off here for Jordan to try and catch somebody. It's just going to be hard. And that Austria opening match of the world cup, not going to be any heat concerns. It's in the Bay area.
01:13:05
Speaker
You just worry for these guys. You do. it's a It's a tough group. They are probably one of the bottom five teams in here. Like, listen, that's not a good recipe for for punching above their weight.
01:13:20
Speaker
and And I think like how they even got here is pretty indicative, right? They got here by cleaning up against the worst teams in their group. They weren't as good as South Korea or Iraq. And they got here because they took care of business better than Iraq did against teams like Oman in Palestine and Kuwait.
01:13:36
Speaker
And Oman in Palestine and Kuwait aren't walking through the door
Key Matches and Potential Outcomes
01:13:39
Speaker
of a World Cup. So again, as we've said to everybody, let's see. They're not going to be here to just make up the numbers. But trying to find the way out here for Jordan is honestly pretty difficult. All right. One game in this group. i it Is it Algeria, Austria? the The battle of the potential dark horses? Yeah.
01:13:56
Speaker
I think that's the football hipster one. You're trying to see ah midfield versus midfield, style versus style, young, exciting project versus ah the Red Bull style. like That's fun.
01:14:06
Speaker
But let's be honest, right? You got to see where Argentina's at. We've said they're the defending champions. What's the level? Austria does not care. They're going to take a big punch.
01:14:17
Speaker
They're going to poke the bear. Where's the bear at? right like like That's huge for Argentina because they're going to need to be at a pretty high level to get through the the whole Austria-Shindig. Very quickly on the numbers here, Amit, they kind of say exactly what you would expect. from the site Pretty tiered group. Argentina, ah you know, 95 plus percent to advance. Austria, even, you know, around 80 percent or so, 85 percent to advance. Algeria, even up at minus 310, that's going to be, you know, 70 percent ish, 80 percent ish. Pretty high for a third place team. That's just a lot of belief their ability to score.
01:14:55
Speaker
Some of these third place teams are not buying it. This one I am. That's because Jordan is down at plus 350. Listen, we've seen some higher numbers. We've seen plus 400. We've seen plus 800.
01:15:06
Speaker
But it's a pretty clear thinks three teams are going to go through type of group. I think Austria is a bit better than Algeria. I think Algeria could be close, but I wouldn't necessarily find any value there.
01:15:19
Speaker
And again, because of the draw, i'm there's not any great value picks, I think, to be had anywhere here. Listen, you could probably go find Argentina to make the quarterfinals at minus to even money.
01:15:31
Speaker
I don't think that's great value, but you might feel good
Betting Odds and Predictions
01:15:34
Speaker
about that. Everything else, like, listen, if you if you want some Dark Horse star stock in Austria and Algeria, by all means, but, like, you're going to have to talk yourself into them being better what they are. um You could definitely also probably find ah some some money on Jordan to lose every game that that could be some okay value. So...
01:15:52
Speaker
Again, not a betting podcast, but I think it is nice to know when we do a whole podcast. And again, we don't bring the numbers in till the end um of our preparation and thinking and that it reflects kind of where we're at. And these guys are as sharp as ever. Like this is kind of the level here for these four teams.
World Cup Previews Promotion
01:16:10
Speaker
We have plenty of other World Cup previews that are coming out. Patreon.com slash WCAD. Right on the homepage there, you have our World Cup preview hub where you can get access to all 12 of our group previews as well as all the other preview content. We'll have plenty of stuff coming out during the World Cup.
01:16:25
Speaker
ah You can also obviously find all the podcasts on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasting stuff. So we'll keep rolling on with the group previews. You'll keep rolling on listing and we'll keep counting on the days until the World Cup.
01:16:36
Speaker
Until then, take care.