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WCAD 4-0: Welcome to the 2026 World Cup, a 30,000 ft. preview
601 Plays23 days ago
Amit & Austin kick off their World Cup previews with a big picture look at the 2026 tournament, both on and off the field. The guys talk ticket prices, politics, and weather, before shifting to look at what to expect on the pitch: set pieces, the push and pull of low event football, and the constant calculations required with a third place table in play.
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Transcript
World Cup Preview Kickoff
00:00:01
Speaker
The calendar has flipped to May. We are nearing one month out from the World Cup. And I mean, you know what that means. It's World Cup preview time. It's all of the info that you and I have digested over three plus years of World Cup qualification, boiling it down into a quick talk about every single team, breaking their tits. And this is the most fun time of the World Cup because the possibilities are endless.
00:00:27
Speaker
That's right. We've been waiting so long to to get to this point. And you and I are both just so excited for this thing to be real. We've been looking at our groups, just looking at the groups over and over again and the schedule and the rosters. And, you know, they we're here to talk about this podcast at this specific World Cup.
00:00:44
Speaker
But I think at the end of the day, when you get this close, the the the excitement is so hard not to feel. And we're just like, we're like buzzing at the seams. Yeah. Yeah, and like it just takes you back to... The World Cup is the World Cup, and it takes you back to all the other World Cups that you... right right like You think back to the to the build-up and all that.
00:01:02
Speaker
And as I alluded to, the best part of this time is Okay, you can't talk yourself into anything happening at the World Cup, but you can talk yourself into a lot of things happening, and we might be very wrong about all of it, or we might be very right about all of it, and that's what is is so much fun about this particular season, and then you go right into the games and you have all these games to talk about, which is always great, too. This is the World Cup After
Podcast Schedule and Predictions
00:01:25
Speaker
Dark podcast. He, on the other end, is Amit Malik. My name is Austin Miller, and we, as mentioned, are in World Cup preview time. So here's a roadmap of what you can expect from us
00:01:36
Speaker
from now until the World Cup kicks off one month from now. So you'll have this show, which is our World Cup preview kickoff. and the idea of what we're going to do today is to break down all of the overarching storylines from this World Cup, both off and on the field.
00:01:52
Speaker
And then from there, we will preview all 12 groups in excruciating detail for some, hopefully good detail for most, And then we'll close it all out with a prediction show. And then we'll go right into the World Cup and all of that. So you'll get that content in drips and drabs over the next month between now and the start of the World Cup.
00:02:12
Speaker
and the I think it's a good place to start with an overall generalized preview because as you and I sit down and start thinking about this World Cup, or i better said, as we continue thinking about this World Cup, but start turning those thoughts into you know public thoughts on in a podcast forum, it's good for us to kind of think about the things that we will continuously be talking about throughout the World Cup. And there's some things that we know, and there's some things that we don't know that that may become themes as we go on. But as you and I sit down, there are things, particularly on the field, that we say, we are probably going to be referring to this sort of idea a lot in previewing the World Cup, during the World Cup. And so it's good, I think,
00:02:52
Speaker
for us to have that conversation now so that there is a a a jumping off point that as we get into this, and we don't have to spend every single preview podcast talking about the same kind of overarching themes and and can have a thing to generally look back on. I think it's a good idea.
00:03:08
Speaker
I agree. It's context. You you can't start the the dive without, you know, laying out all the pieces. And this is a very, very unique World Cup. yeah And if you've listened to this podcast, we bring up these themes all the time about international soccer, but there's their own subset of themes specifically for World Cups. And we need to kind of guess at what is going to matter this World Cup.
Setting a Foundation for Themes
00:03:31
Speaker
That's what this podcast is for. We're going to...
00:03:33
Speaker
It's kind of like also laying out the stuff we have our eyes on, just the the the currents behind it all. So I think i think it is important to to kind of lay out here. It's that we're just never going to talk about them again, but like this reference exists, and that's important. And also just, you know, you have to start somewhere. like I'm sure you...
00:03:51
Speaker
You can't just yeah dive into the Norway squad, right? Like like like we can't just jump into the, to the Norway section of the, like, you know, we, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta dip our toe in the water a little bit. And that's what the, the idea is on today's show. A quick programming note from us. Again, we're going to preview all 12 groups. There'll be an individual group preview on all 12 of those groups.
00:04:11
Speaker
ah Those will come out again throughout the next month. They are not going to come out in alphabetical order because again, Got the content brain on here, Amit. Well, everybody's doing their Group A podcast. i don't know.
00:04:22
Speaker
Maybe you get Group F from the World Cup after dark. And and when you Google Group F preview, ah we're the only ones out there. that's That's that content brain. And also, it should be noted here, Amit made a preemptive Indonesian World Cup watch party. He got sucked into the Patrick Kloyvert, the vibes when Indonesia was close to to making the World Cup. So Amit will be in Indonesia for the first couple weeks.
00:04:44
Speaker
leading into the world cups. We're going to pre-can some of the stuff. You won't notice any sort of difference, but look, man, pat Patrick Clivert got you, man. That's right. I had to see the project up close, you know, really get my hands on the, the scouting system, talent development and see, see for myself. I mean, one of our favorite world cup after dark teams, really. So it makes sense. Yeah. ah Patrick Clivert, not the manager anymore, but John Herdman is, that should be fun in 2030, but no, we, we need to focus on this world cup before we start making points and themes about, about the next world cup. So,
00:05:12
Speaker
I think this World Cup, it's so easy to say this, Amit. Every World Cup comes with its own set of storylines and particularly off the field. I think every World Cup gets into this moment when it seems like, oh, it's never been this crazy off the field in the buildup to a World Cup. You had it in, you know, financial protests in Brazil in 2014. The will things or won't things get done.
00:05:37
Speaker
Russia and Qatar had their own different set of headlines off the field. Listeners of this podcast know that off the field is not generally where you and I like to spend our time as it comes to the World Cup, but we are also not so naive as to suggest that we could do a World Cup preview without mentioning at least some of the off the field issues.
00:05:59
Speaker
And I think, Amit, it's also particularly important with it being a World Cup that is primarily, not entirely, but primarily hosted in the U.S. You and I have unique perspectives that I think we can contribute a bit more to the off-the-field discussion than maybe, say,
00:06:15
Speaker
about Qatari human rights issues or Russian human rights issues. We have a little bit more experience talking about the things off the field. And again, it would be a disservice, I think, to preview this World Cup in particular and not at least mention some of the off the field things that will be showing up in headlines between now and the start of the World Cup and perhaps during the World Cup. Although...
00:06:37
Speaker
The World Cup has a very traditional ability to have a whole host of off-the-field stuff leading up to it. And then the second the goals start flying in, a lot of that fades away. We'll see if that happens this summer. It may or may not.
00:06:51
Speaker
But the off-the-field stuff has to be a part of the discussion, particularly if we're going to talk about the big-picture themes with this World Cup. I think it's well said. i mean, you've listened to this podcast and if you are new to this podcast, really welcome. we're We're happy to have you. But this podcast is World Cup After Dark. We, you know, we have fun with the games and all the stuff we love about international football. And it's not that neither of us are not aware of the off the field stuff.
00:07:17
Speaker
There's just so much in the space that like that's never been our niche and that's OK. I think you framed really well, like we, you know, as two people that talk about international soccer, like we are aware and we
Skyrocketing Ticket Prices
00:07:30
Speaker
understand how it factors into everything. So we're going to talk about it a little bit, but it's again, neither of our like things we'd like to talk about. We, it's just not it. And if you've listened to this podcast for a long time, I'm sure you understand that. And if you're new, well, now, you know, if you really want that, you have to go somewhere else outside of what you're about to hear.
00:07:48
Speaker
But if you want 15 minutes of off the field World Cup talk, you're in the right place. So let's start with the ticket prices a bit. This has been a massive storyline. Tickets for this World Cup are averaging over $1,500 per match, far and away the highest ever.
00:08:04
Speaker
The cheapest ticket for any single game outside of a certain selection of $60 tickets that FIFA was kind of peer pressured into putting in, supporter tier, whatever, is $380 face value. And again, there's some games in this World Cup that are not worth $380 face value.
00:08:20
Speaker
ah The average get-in for a group stage match in Qatar four years ago was around $100 $150. there's obviously massive ah value jump there There's a lot to talk about when it comes to ticket prices. I think you and I are both generally in agreement that tickets are way too expensive.
00:08:39
Speaker
But I also think the factors, particularly the uniqueness of the U.S.'s unregulated secondary ticket market, makes this a pretty difficult needle to thread.
00:08:54
Speaker
Yeah, it's very hard to combat what's happening because of what you described. And it's not just a U.S. soccer thing. It's not just a U.S. sports thing. It's a U.S. live events thing.
00:09:10
Speaker
um You see this in the in the concert industry as as well. But sports is the most... primary one. And I think it's a reason why international federations like FIFA or even the IOC would would want to look at the United States as a host for you know world events. And I think you know you you see that tickets in particular is really, really unregulated, as you said. And that just there's a lot of money in that for a lot of people.
00:09:41
Speaker
And you know that's that's a big driver for for FIFA, for for the ticket industry as well. But really for, for people to come here, they're like, this is a good thing about us having an event in the United States is we're going to make a lot of money. And that is, you know, downstream of a lot of, a lot of things about this world's cup, but that's where you're seeing it. I think the most, and what, what, what stinks There's a million reasons why. But what stinks is for the average fan is when you hope a World Cup in your country, you want that to be an experience for for soccer having a cultural impact in your life or or the people you you know you associate with. You want it to matter. And and for us soccer fans, we wanted to share that with people. And for people that aren't soccer fans, you want that that you know that entry point into it.
00:10:29
Speaker
It's just an accessibility thing, right? like that that is really that is That is the really tricky thing, regardless of any of our critiques of the system. like That is a bummer that you know I think all of us who, you know growing up, wanting a World Cup in our country, was hoping would be something accessible to more people.
00:10:48
Speaker
Yeah, and the reasoning for this is a lot of it, most of it just goes back to the fact that once you have a ticket in your hand in the US, you can sell it for whatever you can sell it for.
00:10:59
Speaker
And that is not the case in a lot of places around the world. Tickets are are regulated, right? In South America and Europe, you buy a ticket, you have to use your ticket. If you resell it, it's not there's not this open resale market. And so what that means is if somebody is going to profit handsomely off of World Cup tickets. And FIFA made the decision that we'd like that to be us rather than us scalpers.
00:11:26
Speaker
Right? Like, that is... at Basically. me This is what it has boiled down to. As FIFA has said, well, if... you know, scalpers can take 75% of our tickets and profit off of them.
00:11:36
Speaker
We should just take those 75% of the tickets and profit. We want the profit in our pockets rather than the scalpers pockets. And almost admit, you can squint hard enough and kind of understand that sort of logic. Again, that you got to squint pretty hard.
00:11:53
Speaker
I get that. And I get giving FIFA the benefit of the doubt is not a popular position and perhaps rightly so. But you can almost understand their decision in that aspect while also acknowledging all the consequences that come from it.
00:12:09
Speaker
Yeah, you and I both work in sports. We know plenty of people that work in sports. FIFA has a a a mission and part of you know growing the game of soccer is raising the you know the financial ah revenue it gets. And the World Cup is FIFA's biggest driver. And you know in all sorts of sports, there is ah there is someone that is making money off of it. And in international sports, it's FIFA, right? Like...
00:12:39
Speaker
there's a ah Just for example, like FIFA doesn't make money off of soccer growing at the domestic game and in terms of league stuff. right They make money off the World Cup. They need the World Cup to make money. And also, they need it to make more money every time. so like that's that's Again, we're not here to...
00:12:57
Speaker
<unk> necessarily critique the system, but I think it's really illuminating that the average group stage get in Qatar was around 100, 150. And as you said, that's about a triple, quadruple increase.
00:13:08
Speaker
or Or sorry, is the average really up to 1,500? Or is that just the all of the games, including knockout games and and the final and all of that? Yeah. So think the point that's worth making it's more about the cheapest group stage get in is 380.
00:13:20
Speaker
right it's about It's about a four to five increase in four years. And that is, you know at the end of the day, boiling it down, like you can you can point to why that's happened. And it's because FIFA needs to say, look at the line, line go up.
00:13:37
Speaker
um And then everyone gets to benefit when line goes up, goes in their pockets. Yeah, and again, FIFA has kind of made the calculus. If we sell tickets at an assess at an accessible price, right, maybe that allows 5,000, 7,500 fans that wouldn't have gone in the first place to get into the stadium, and they've decided that that trade-off is not worth the other 70,000 tickets that are sold on the resale market for these prices and that FIFA gets no extra profit from.
00:14:08
Speaker
That's the decision that's been made. i think... Again, it's a difficult it it is legitimately a difficult equation, I think, to try and solve. That said, as people who like to see soccer be accessible, it generally sucks that it's going to put you out like $1,000 to go to a game and sit in a spot where you can enjoy the game with one other person. like That is objectively not good for the overall hashtag grow the game.
00:14:32
Speaker
But also the profits that FIFA will get from this will hashtag grow the game in places unseen that aren't the American market. So that is, I think, the ticket price discussion. Also, i I've enjoyed just like the general things that are just done for the discourse. Like somebody put their World Cup final ticket on the FIFA resale platform for $2 million. dollars Like nobody's actually going to buy a ticket for $2 million. dollars But hey, we got the headline, right?
00:14:56
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, it's not unique to soccer. And it's also increasingly not unique to American sports. But it is this is a very, very American sports idea that has come from years of you know Super Bowl tickets and all sorts of sporting events being really, at the end of the day, a premium experience that people are willing to pay for. And as long as people love seeing live sports in person that they think are cool...
00:15:28
Speaker
there's going to be a someone in power that can say, well, people will pay for it. Like, let's put, you know what I mean? Like, it yeah. why it and Right. Like it's the simplest economic thing. I took one economics class in college. Like, yeah, supply and demand. Like, I know how that works. Um,
00:15:43
Speaker
All right, let's leave the ticket discussion aside for a minute and let's do the politics discussion, which again, it's the
Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Participation
00:15:50
Speaker
US in 2026. I think you have to have the discussion. There's a lot of places that that this could go. There are a lot of topics that we could talk about. I don't think we need to touch on anything. As far as politics affecting what we see on the field, I think the biggest flashpoint as of now, as we record this just over a month away from the World Cup, is obviously related to Iran, obviously related to the situation in the Middle East, in the Persian Gulf, the Iran,
00:16:13
Speaker
war or situation or whatever it is being referred to these days. FIFA, since the start of the conflict, have insisted that round will play, that there's there's no changes to the schedule.
00:16:25
Speaker
There's really been nothing major to suggest that they won't. But again, you just kind of have to, you know, like... befuddlingly gesture at everything to suggest how how that could change.
00:16:36
Speaker
um The idea of it is that hopefully that will be settled by the time you and I record our Iran preview podcast. It will play a role there. Look, this is probably the thing that you and I are least qualified or least interested in talking about, but it is absolutely something related to this World Cup because of the people in power in the U.S. at this particular point in time and the effect that that will and won't have on the World Cup.
00:17:03
Speaker
Yeah, there's ah there's even more issues that we're going to get into a little bit. But ah specifically with the Iran one, it's you know it's it's tricky for Iran, their soccer leadership, their their country's leadership, to decide what they should do. And you know I think things in sports exist um in a larger ecosystem. Like Russia is a good example um and how that works in the Olympic space.
00:17:31
Speaker
and how that works in the soccer space, and how conflict larger world conflict is mediated in sports. We are not experts. We cannot tell you why, how, or we could guess, but like as really the frame of reference is that the whatever the situation is, there is no one, no power big enough, or even if there was a power big enough to say that you can say that Iran isn't in or Iran can say that they're not in and it, or basically the balls in their court is where the situation is.
00:18:08
Speaker
No one's like, no one's going to say that they otherwise that like people on one side of the war and the right or the wrong. It's more that if, if Ron feels like they don't want to play, they, they, they cannot do that. And for them, that's where it's so tricky.
00:18:23
Speaker
Like, it's such a big moment for them to be on the stage and, and to have a soccer moment as well for their people. But where, where is that at the, the relating to the politics, the geopolitics side of their, their pride and, you know, their, the the conflict side of it.
00:18:43
Speaker
We cannot say, could not say anything further than that. I don't like if if we had, if they dropped out before the world's cup, what would we come on this podcast and say? Right, like, and yeah, exactly. And the solutions that would come, you know, again, I think that's a bridge that you only cross if you have to cross it. But I do think it is relevant to point out that FIFA is intrinsically interested in Iran taking part in this World Cup, right?
00:19:07
Speaker
Like, well facebook as FIFA as an organization really wants this World Cup to go off without any sort of hitches. And Iran taking part of it as scheduled as a qualified team, I think is a big part of that.
00:19:22
Speaker
And one thing that you know we can add, again, people that work in sports, in international sports, FIFA is a very, very large governing body of sport.
00:19:34
Speaker
It does not at any point want to become a body with international like... power of of geopolitics. h It has some as as an institution as large as it is and as culturally important as the World Cup is. But its line is to be like, sport exists above politics. And that's why it has such interest in Iran participating um and why it really, really takes something extraordinary across Europe.
00:20:06
Speaker
the whole geopolitical sports landscape for a country to not participate in these kinds of things. It happens. You can go back in history and look at all of it happens. The onus would be on Iran here. FIFA really, really wants them to play because the second it doesn't, FIFA has to say things about it that it doesn't want to, that contradict its position as being above sport.
00:20:29
Speaker
I think that's a really, really good way of putting it. And we'll see how this actually plays out. Again, there's not a whole lot of time for it to play out. And I think had there been, were there to be a big shift, I think we would have kind of caught the winds of that by now. But again, this is geopolit, like global geopolitics. This can all change in a heartbeat, right?
00:20:49
Speaker
And like and you you can follow this if you follow the Iran headlines. At the right at the start of the conflict, it was very much... Iran's really doesn't want to play. Iran's not sure if it can play. Iran would consider not playing in the United States. Iran is probably going to be there. It happened like in a month. And the calculus of people and this is Iran's state leadership and soccer leadership are saying like, we don't want to lose this opportunity tuity at the expense of something equating
00:21:28
Speaker
culturally and financially national pride. that that That is the the the the calculus going on at in many levels of leadership. And the World Cup is super, super important. like Sport is really, really important and means a lot. So that's...
00:21:47
Speaker
I expect them to play. I do too. I find it hard to envision a scenario in which they don't. But again, that's maybe not true. I can envision a scenario in which they don't. Of course we both can. Yeah. Right. Like given the way that things are trending now, I think it is in the interest of all parties for Iran to play.
00:22:08
Speaker
And that will kind of happen. There's also, and we'll get to this other part on the show, there's the chance that Iran in the U.S. could play each other in the round of 32 or the round of 16 or whatever. And like then you know everything just gets really geopolitically ah under a microscope. But we'll cross that bridge again when we get there, if we
Visa Access Challenges for Fans and Journalists
00:22:25
Speaker
have to. ah Visa issues for fans, journalists. These are also going to play a role. Again, the U.S. has from the start made it very clear that no player or member of a technical staff will be prohibited from entering the country for the World Cup. They have been very abundantly clear that that protection does not apply to fans and even journalists.
00:22:44
Speaker
This is again, this is something that is that a massive theme in U.S. politics as a whole. This isn't related to just the World Cup, but the World Cup absolutely brings us into the forefront. U.S. is a country that is notoriously difficult to get into for tourist purposes if you are not from what would be considered a first world country elsewhere.
00:23:04
Speaker
So what does that mean? That means that all of those issues get brought into the limelight and some of the scenes that we have seen at other World Cups where the welcome mat has been rolled out for people, right? Right.
00:23:14
Speaker
Qatar was very, very clear that they wanted people to come to the World Cup. Russia in 2018 was exactly the same. The US emit has not made those same kind of overtures.
00:23:26
Speaker
Yeah, and this is ah ah an American political discussion about borders and visas and where people come from that, you know, I don't think either of us really want to say on more, but where it comes into sport is the precedent and and the spirit of of the World Cup of allowing fans to share culture and that being an important part of of international sport and international sports tournaments like the World Cup. And Really, the the people and doing the the decisions about these kinds of things are not thinking about international soccer. They're decisions. It's a very political, like, yeah we want our borders to look this way because of our beliefs, of these beliefs.
00:24:12
Speaker
and I didn't really โ I'm not really thinking that โ when the U S wanted to be like, we really want to make our world cup reputation crappy by not letting fans of countries in the world cup able to come as easily as they would have been able to come. If the, if the world cup was in another country, I don't think anyone really thought that through.
00:24:34
Speaker
That is how it has ended up. And it's a bummer because that's kind of what at, at its core, the the world cup can be about, but it's been that way.
00:24:46
Speaker
Because of the past, it's not always guaranteed to be that way. there the The truth of it is, when the World Cup was given to the United States, there was no guarantee of who would be in charge and what they would do.
00:25:01
Speaker
And the World Cup is not superseding right political authority. Right. And I think that's good. i You know, it's a bummer. I personally think it's a bummer for fans of a team in the World Cup that they like couldn't come see their once-in-a-lifetime trip, especially if it was like your first World Cup. yeah But that that is the who can fif FIFA has probably asked the United States.
00:25:31
Speaker
the you The United States has political might to say these things are more important to us than your tournament. Right, exactly. And that's the thing. Whereas a World Cup for Qatar is bigger than... you know domestic politics, perhaps, for Qatar. That's not the case in the US. And as you said, other priorities supersede the, quote-unquote, welcoming aspect of the World Cup.
00:25:56
Speaker
And also, when you then kind of throw in the financial discussion that you and I just had about ticket prices, that means... rather, you know, clearly that only a certain type of fan is going to be in the stadium for this World Cup because to get through a visa process, to buy tickets to go to the U.S., to buy tickets to go to the games, that that is a price tag that is absolutely prohibitive to the majority of soccer fans around the world in a way that maybe it wasn't at past World Cups. And again, that's going to affect who's going to be in the stands.
00:26:30
Speaker
But it also, man, I think is worth pointing out that the U.S., in comparison to other countries, certainly obviously in comparison to Qatar and Russia, and even really to to Brazil and South Africa before them, has a diaspora community that is certainly bigger and more broader.
00:26:46
Speaker
And that means that if people can't travel from their home country, people who are already in the US will travel to support the nation of their family. And that means that some of those people will, this is a ah very crude term to use, will fill the gap of the people who are not there, right? And so I think we'll still get some of that atmosphere and some of that color. It will just come in its own uniquely American way for all of what that is worth.
00:27:15
Speaker
all right, I think we've touched upon... No, we haven't touched upon all of the politics stuff, but we're going to leave that there. Again, you will not be short of politically-related politics content throughout this World Cup.
00:27:29
Speaker
know The only thing I would just just add is that I don't think anyone should be surprised if something happens where that cross is over. like It has always been a ah stage, these big events, the World Cup, the Olympics, things major, events.
00:27:52
Speaker
mal ah tournaments a stage for the political whether that is a a player on the field whether that is fans in the stadium whether that is something outside the stadium whether that is something said by a public official about the the tournament or a game or player or or a country right like or a country so like it's all on the ground. And I just think almost, almost the most important reason for us to do 25 minutes of like dancing around very difficult topics is that they're not going away and something could happen during this tournament during any tournament, but during this one in this very fertile environment for like it being crazy.
00:28:35
Speaker
And yeah we simply could not, could not guess to what it was, but if, but it could, and yeah, it's it's It is the moment of the world, not just America, the world in 2026, that it's an explosive environment for for politics and culture and sport to all meet.
00:28:54
Speaker
And that is that is the area of this this World Cup happening. And the stage, as you alluded to, doesn't get bigger than the World Cup, right? It is the world's most watched sporting event. It is the sporting event that means the most to the most part of the world. And that is why all of those topics
Impact of American Summer Conditions
00:29:10
Speaker
matter. All right. Other things off the field that we will probably talk about, Amit, is the cocktail that is weather, heat, global warming, lightning.
00:29:19
Speaker
um This is a World Cup that is taking place in the peak of American summer. It is going to be hot. Games will be played when it is hot. FIFA has done what they can to mitigate that. They're putting games that are taking place during the day in climate controlled venues, but there's only a certain amount of climate controlled venues that they have.
00:29:39
Speaker
Of the 16 host cities for this World Cup, uh, six in Canada and no, excuse me, five in Canada and Mexico and 11 in the U S four of those stadiums have climate control, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Vancouver. Doesn't really matter in Vancouver, but it's there.
00:29:54
Speaker
Eight of those 16 venues have permanent artificial turf. We'll talk about that in a second. Um, um, This is a World Cup where the weather and the playing conditions are going to matter. We've seen it matter at tournaments in the US in the past taking place in this time frame.
00:30:09
Speaker
It is going to be hot. That is probably going to have an an effect on the field. We'll touch on that aspect of it a bit. and the And again, ah you and I have particular experience with this. imit We know a good lightning clock, right?
00:30:22
Speaker
We've spent many days at the prisoner of a lightning clock. That is something that we could... No, something we will be talking about at this World Cup. It's a unique time to be trying to play football in the middle of June.
00:30:38
Speaker
Yeah, this is again, i think something that's been going on for a while is the weather, the heat. I think there's a ah very maybe under under in the bigger picture, under reported, under talked about in the bigger picture thing of simply like Too much outdoor competition at too many points of the year is at temperatures that are increasingly tough for high performance.
00:31:05
Speaker
This is particularly soccer, tennis, but a lot of sports, really, if you're playing in June anywhere. Think of now the spots in the world where June would be a good place to play soccer outside.
00:31:19
Speaker
It's in Argentina. It's in Brazil, right? It's in the Southern Hemisphere, right? It's winter. Yeah. Right, right. And think of yes, that is fair, that you could you could switch it um almost because of how crazy it is. Think of somewhere where it's summer that you could do, and then the answer is is is even lower.
00:31:36
Speaker
And I don't think that that discussion isn't really ever going away. I think we're maybe 15 to 20 years away from a push that I think ah anywhere like...
00:31:50
Speaker
I mean, at this point, anywhere in the in North America, even, or south of a certain point, should be an indoor stadium to host these kinds of things. And certainly you saw that with Qatar, right? How many of those were outdoors? Well, and that was a World Cup that switched its calendar to avoid the heat, right? Like in Qatar, they chose not to play in June and July because of how hot it would be. They didn't obviously make that decision in the U.S., s nor would that be a decision I think you would ever make in the U.S. But look,
00:32:16
Speaker
Kansas City at 3 p.m. on a June day is not a fun place to be. And FIFA, to their credit, they have tried their hardest to avoid those sorts of situations. You look at the match schedule. If it's a match that's taking place at noon or 1 p.m. Eastern, very high chances that it is going to be played at an indoor stadium. But again,
00:32:32
Speaker
There are limits to what they can do with an indoor stadium. And I think perhaps, Amit, maybe the most interesting decision that FIFA made was in having the World Cup final at a stadium that is not climate controlled. In MetLife, New York, New Jersey stadium is a stadium that there is a non-zero chance that the World Cup final...
00:32:52
Speaker
He's going to have a lightning delay because that is a uniquely American experience to have and is something that even FIFA themselves cannot avoid because of the way that policies are written at American stadiums.
00:33:05
Speaker
Yeah, that's just so American. I mean, it's kind of funny. I think it's... e It's emblematic of the whole thing, the whole marriage between FIFA and the United States, and it's a funny one. And...
00:33:21
Speaker
I don't like we're kind of post the weather discourse. We're not actually post weather discourse. We're actually right before it. But to me, like mentally, like what is there to say other than it is what it is and what will happen is what will happen.
00:33:34
Speaker
It's like, what would it, what would it take for things to change? It certainly won't be a a world cup or will it be so bad that everyone goes, we really should do something different, right? The,
00:33:48
Speaker
The way things would the yeah go ahead goes into a lightning delay in the 20th minute. Like, I think that is about as bad as it could get. And that is absolutely the type of event that would cause other world federations to look at this and say, like, well, we don't want that to happen to us. And that is something that is absolutely on the cards here.
00:34:07
Speaker
We saw it imit last summer at the Club World Cup, right? There were six games at the 2025 Club World Cup that suffered some sort of lightning delays. These are all things that are on the cards. Again, we'll get to this in the on the field section. FIFA have mandatory hydration breaks in every single game, regardless of where it's being played. That is fundamentally changing the way how this game is played. That's the type of effects that we're talking about here.
00:34:31
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, it's just going to keep, it's going to keep spiraling ah into solutions or into problems that are, you know, you, you mitigate as much as you can. And certainly I think to the, the soccer side of it is that,
00:34:50
Speaker
but in the, in the sports science era, like the players are as equipped teams are as equipped for this weather as ever. Like they know teams know how to play in it, but it doesn't make it a better product.
00:35:02
Speaker
Hmm. I think you'd rather see a final personally in ah in a climate-controlled aspect than in what if it's 90 degrees and 80% humidity at MetLife in mid-July.
00:35:13
Speaker
yeah is that a good advertisement for your sport? No, but again, major finals generally aren't France-Argentine. Correct, correct, correct. One other point the stadiums. Eight of the 16 stadiums have permanent artificial turf. Obviously, that won't be a factor. It shouldn't be a factor at the World Cup. They're getting grass pitches for the World Cup.
00:35:31
Speaker
ah Everything that we read on that suggests that there has been a lot of research that has gone into this in order to ensure that the temporary grass pitches at these stadiums play well.
00:35:42
Speaker
ah But again, it's something that I think is worth watching because we've seen that not play well. If you look at what happened in the Copa America two years ago at the Club World Cup, it was it was better. Again, FIFA has put a lot of work into making sure that grass over turf at this World Cup is not an issue. I don't think there's any reason to believe that it will be.
00:36:00
Speaker
But, you know, it's something that I think we is worth mentioning. Yeah, I'm hopeful that the grass will be good. And I kind of believe all the research that's gone in, but you have to see it first. You have to see the bounces. Depends how they lay it on.
00:36:15
Speaker
Every field's like mechanism for getting grass on turf is different, right? So we'll know. We'll know pretty early if it's not quite a plan 100%. It'll be something to monitor. Yeah, and I can guarantee you that plenty of managers and players will make it known that if it is not, well, that they'll make that plenty clear. And finally, as far as off the field stuff, and this is something that doesn't actually matter a bit, we're also going to get the World Cup meeting the U.S., and particularly the U.S. sports
Engagement with U.S. Sports Discourse
00:36:40
Speaker
discourse machine, right?
00:36:42
Speaker
Because this is happening at a time in which not a lot else will be happening in the sporting world. Okay, yeah, the and the NBA and the NHL will be wrapping up at the start of this World Cup, but then you get into the doldrums that is the MLB regular season and really nothing else.
00:36:56
Speaker
So we could be looking at a scenario in which are like Stephen A. Smith and and Pat McAfee are like dropping Lionel Messi takes again. None of that actually matters, but it kind of is interesting to watch.
00:37:08
Speaker
Yeah, I think the overall sports media landscape in the United States has been a fascinating ah twists and turns tale over the past whatever, however many years.
00:37:20
Speaker
um Certainly the talking headsification of it is interesting. ah Certainly, i think the state of soccer coverage in the United States is better than it's ever been, but also more niche than it's ever been because it's not really nationally done.
00:37:36
Speaker
um You know, they're soccer fans nowhere to go for it. What happens when the mainstream apparati of sports media have to talk about soccer? Well, it's poor, but um that's like you have to start somewhere. So it'll be fun to see how that goes. I think in general, the the the people making coverage decisions, the producers, the editors, and the people doing that have gotten better and better and something we've enjoyed.
00:38:04
Speaker
But specifically in terms of like television coverage, you know we've lived through many Fox big major tournaments. They actually don't care as much as some of the other networks do.
00:38:15
Speaker
But that's nothing new. um I think it's just... there has to be a balance between the soccer fan and the casual fan and understanding that for a lot of people, like if you're listening to this podcast, you're just going to world cup after dark, you are in the niche corner with us. And for a lot of people, this is a massive, massive exposure to soccer and to international soccer in a way that they have never, never encountered outside of world cups or at all. And so that's just going to be fun. And it's not going to necessarily be, uh,
00:38:48
Speaker
pleasing to the soccer fans, but like that's part of the ride, right? Yeah, and like this is an observation, a very unique, particular example. But ah during the NFL draft, right like they announced that the Cowboys and the Ravens were going to play a game in Rio de Janeiro at the Maracanรฃ, one of the most famous sta soccer stadiums in the world.
00:39:07
Speaker
And Rich Eisen, who was a very well-known American media personality and like' seemingly well-rounded, tried to pronounce the Maracanรฃ and just got nowhere close to it and had very clearly just never encountered that in his entire being.
00:39:19
Speaker
And like, those are the kinds of people that might be dropping soccer takes over the next two months. Yeah, I think that's something that always has helped us as a podcast is that during the World Cup, ah you want to to listen to soccer stuff and you want to hear it from people that know soccer, but not everyone does. And that's OK.
00:39:38
Speaker
But um just... Oh, the last thing on it is, again, it goes back to the the you know United States and FIFA being an interesting partnership, an interesting marriage in that American exceptionalism in many senses goes into sports and soccer does not exist in that American exceptionalism in sports. Men's soccer doesn't, which is actually a very good point.
00:40:01
Speaker
But what's funny is that the the the media landscape like this just does not have that reference. yeah Wouldn't it be โ if it was in any other country like a major broadcaster talking about international soccer, there is some sort of respect and reverence for a big sport.
00:40:18
Speaker
That American ignorance is like part of the ride, which is funny. it's gonna There's going to be some of that too. And we saw that way to the draw, like some of that stuff. Yes. It's just it's comical. pronounce a lot of countries that he was not prepared to attempt to pronounce and again exceptionalism all right let's go on the field we spent a lot of time on the offthefield stuff what are the big on the field storylines that we're looking at at this world cup without getting into the nitty-gritty of the who's who or who will be doing what I think a bit the
Strategic Set-Piece Play Analysis
00:40:50
Speaker
number one story here is this mix of the set pieceification, if you want to term it that way, of some aspects of large European and club soccer, which again...
00:41:04
Speaker
all of soccer revolves kind of around that main sun at the center, which is the big European clubs. And so the set piece of occasion of some of that, that meets an international football public, if you will, that had already kind of shifted towards that aspect of soccer.
00:41:26
Speaker
I think we're going to see even more of that than we've seen over the past few major tournaments where we've seen a greater majority of the bigger teams choosing to play that way.
00:41:40
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's a good kind of introduction into this on the field stuff. And i think a really interesting point is international soccer is harder to pull off from an idea perspective on the field than club soccer because your players play less together.
00:41:58
Speaker
And that's less time. And you the stakes are just as high, if not higher. So you kind of get into the peaks of like game theory and sports soccer analytics and sports analytics. And that's one of the reasons why we love international soccer is you're just trying to squeeze out every margin you can.
00:42:19
Speaker
But it is a super, super condensed space. We love that. That is what makes international soccer great. And every World Cup, you kind of see the international scene taking the analytical developments of the past four years and fusing them really hard into a new space that even sets things further.
00:42:38
Speaker
And I think it's... Right now, what's hot in the soccer analytics is, you know, set pieces, right? Set pieces and, ah you know, there's all sorts of we low event stuff that was kind of what we were talking about four years ago and even before that. And I think what is...
00:42:59
Speaker
we're going to see is low event football, the natural extension of it was already set piece heavy is now going to be more that way. And I think that's where we're headed. And i think you add the weather part of it too.
00:43:13
Speaker
And the sports science part of it too, is being very, very choosy about when your players can run, how much they can run, when you can use them to run, how does that look like over attrition over the course of the tournament? And all of that is to saying, can you do more with less? And set pieces is one of the biggest answers. And, um,
00:43:37
Speaker
and We're going to see some teams really, really lean into it in a way that we've always seen it, but even more. And it's just going to be interesting, I think, helping underdogs, but also helping big teams like use their physical advantages in that way as well to to do less of expending energy early in the tournament.
00:43:58
Speaker
It's interesting you said teams looking to do more with less. There's also an aspect of teams looking to do less with more, right? like It's both 100%. You've got teams in some camp that, okay, how can we take advantage of this and do more with less? And there's teams that... And they're not... This isn't necessarily how they're approaching it, but this is kind of how it's ending up is how can we do as little as possible to get the optimal result so that in future moments we have more left in the tank, right? Like this isn't, okay, there are some
00:44:31
Speaker
coaches that just naturally believe this. You know, we talk about a guy like Didier Deschamps with France, where this is just how they want to play. But there are also coaches that this maybe isn't necessarily how they want to play, but this is the most efficient way for them to play because down the line, you want to have more in the tank than your opponent does. And how do you do that? By doing it less early on.
00:44:51
Speaker
Correct. And I think a few other things to to touch on that are going to add to, i think, really, really getting to the limits of what low event football can do. And if something can dislodge at this tournament is, again, the weather we said specifically, you and I have watched a lot of South American and North American CONCACAF football.
00:45:13
Speaker
That stuff is played at a walking pace. can you Can you be successful playing at a walking pace? How does that look like? And also the extra game in knockout phases. yep There is just another 90 or 120 minutes we're adding to everyone's legs. I think that attrition is going to be massive. The teams that have depth, the teams that can set themselves up in the group stage to take some time off in the group stage, the teams that can get through...
00:45:37
Speaker
um 90 minutes in the in the round of 32 easier um is just all going to add up as this thing goes on. And I think some of the other stuff we're going to see also in terms of that is when we talk about projecting this tournament, you're starting to see that attrition and depth are going to matter.
00:45:56
Speaker
Is this new format going to help or hurt the dark horses of the world? Yep. Is it going, is it easier with, do more games mean more variance or do more games mean more chances for the better teams to come to the top?
00:46:10
Speaker
I think it's an interesting inflection point because it's not like we've expanded this so much that you would expect, like this isn't a 38 game season like the Premier League is where the best team is naturally going to rise the top or at least close to it because over 38 games, that's what happens.
00:46:27
Speaker
We're not quite, we're not anywhere close to that. But also, if you give good teams one more game to show that they are good or prove that they are better, maybe that's what it takes. And if an underdog has to get through one further step to make that run, we've seen these runs the semifinals recently. We saw Morocco in 2022. Croatia made the final in 2018. We've seen lesser teams make extended World Cup runs recently.
00:46:50
Speaker
Is that more or less likely under this new format? I think it might be about the same, but I'm intrigued to find out. So much is going to be about the draw and where those teams kind of get it, ah get set up to make a run.
00:47:04
Speaker
I think one thing we've seen in the Champions League is that if you look at the final eight of the Champions League with an extra round versus what it used to look like, it's not that different, right?
00:47:15
Speaker
But I do think overall the Blue Bloods are pretty protected in in this... Not protected, but the extra game is going to help more of them get there. It's not that the very top is and necessarily better set up, but I do think that kind of pool of...
00:47:31
Speaker
haves and have-nots, it's going to be very hard for the have-nots to crack a true Dark Horse run. And that's where Morocco is an interesting case because they're so good. Are they a have-not?
00:47:42
Speaker
Croatia, you know, all of their talent. Were they a have-not? Or what constitutes is that? i my My early guess is it's going to be hard for some of the... When we do our prediction podcast, I want to do a segment on Dark Horse stock, Dark Horse watch, and whoever I name will will certainly be cursed. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Yeah, you ready to hand those out. But i think it's a different I think it's a different equation than it was in the past years. And your kind of bar for what looks like a contender is is higher because of the extra matches and because of the attrition that we should expect at this tournament. And you made the point there, of it and I think it's a great point.
00:48:17
Speaker
The draw. So much of this World Cup is predicated on what happened last December and in ways that you and i can't really even see now. The draw as we see it are the groups that we've been given, and it's pretty easy to see who maybe got the better or the shorter end of the stick there.
00:48:35
Speaker
But that draw and one of the 900 plus combination of third place teams that go through, which we'll get to in a second, sets the path towards making the World Cup final.
00:48:46
Speaker
And all of how that plays out it's everything into determining what we're getting in the knockout round. And that draw, it's a point that you and I have made and a point that we will continue to make.
00:48:58
Speaker
That draw has given us a chance that the defending World Cup champions could play Spain in the round of 32 in a not so implausible scenario. That is how volatile this draw can be. And that is how important it is. And that is how uncontrollable this all boils down to because...
00:49:16
Speaker
all of this discourse, and ah all of it comes down to what order those little balls came out of the pots in December. And that shapes so much of what we're going to do. And you and I will try to foresee so much of that potential, this was a draw thing going into it.
00:49:32
Speaker
But it just is a point that we have to continuously reiterate that it plays so big of a role in this tournament. It does. And it puts some pressure on the group stage um even in ways, even with the expanded format and a more forgiving format where that still matters.
00:49:50
Speaker
Because as much as you can control the draw as an individual team, you should, right? and You should be trying to set yourself up understanding that just getting through sometimes isn't enough if you really have serious aspirations.
00:50:02
Speaker
That's never how it goes, right? It's always about fight the next battle you can, but it's going to be very spicy. we can't quite... pinpoint it all yet, but we will we will see some of the the the shakeouts. There's going to be some chaos. There always is. and Some teams will be in a very, very good spot because of it.
00:50:20
Speaker
This next one, I mean, is a point that I think is maybe not as new to us, but maybe is perhaps stronger than it has been in the past. You ready to go big business here? You ready to hear a Fortune 500 CAO type talk? We're talking about the de-silofication of the World Cup.
00:50:38
Speaker
The international football ma has become very siloed. It's those terms that those big business guys like to throw around where they say that everybody only works with the people that they work with and not with the other people in the business. and They're not making them enough money. Where that comes into international football is teams from continents have more so now than ever only played teams from their continents, right? There's Nations Leagues all around. There's these major tournaments happening all the time. There's qualification for major tournaments.
00:51:03
Speaker
And again, this isn't necessarily something that is specifically new, but it's something that has grown over the past kind of couple of years, and that is that some of these teams that we're going to see at this World Cup don't have a lot of experience playing against teams that are different than they are.
00:51:19
Speaker
This is a very extreme example, but Czechia, a team who just qualified for the World Cup in the European playoffs, they've played one game against a non-European team since the 2022 World cup Those are the types of situations that we're going see these teams thrown into. And now, instead of another Nations League match, we're getting Haiti, Morocco, and South Korea, Czechia, and New Zealand, Egypt, and all these weird matchups.
00:51:42
Speaker
And the inherent clash of styles that comes with it is just always so fun to enjoy about a World Cup. Yeah, it's it has become a little bit more siloed in the in the past. And I think another thing also is the, in terms of the bizification of it, is the Continental Federation's needing to to generate more money by yeah focusing more on their, on flushing out the schedule of Nations Leagues and AFCONs or Asia Cups or Gold Cups or that kind of thing. so It certainly has a little way. I mean, we look forward to those clashes so much. I do think there are very distinct differences in the games across continents. Absolutely. And some of that style clash is really, really exciting.
00:52:26
Speaker
and I think it's always, ah always, always ah interesting is the measuring stick of Europe versus everyone else. How much closer has that gotten? We see in the club game, in the increased globalization of player pathways, that it is just soccer development is really everywhere. And there's more and more talent everywhere.
00:52:48
Speaker
But also the top of the pool, the top of the the the center of everything is still Europe and they still have the most resources. And so they can set the you know the advancements and the trends. and where is where is that line? And I think we really, really have seen it come close. But how close? and you know a team like Morocco, just again, just the highest level example, a team like Morocco making a semifinal is something that just did very really, really happens. Yeah. Where is the measuring sticks? How is it going to look like? And then, yes, in terms of there's all sorts of different battles up and down. And that's what I think we're going to learn a lot about the state of world soccer that I think will be interesting in terms of where things stand. Yeah.
00:53:34
Speaker
And finally, I think the, the on the field stuff that that maybe the most important point that we can make here is that this is
Expanded World Cup Format Details
00:53:40
Speaker
an expanded world cup and that entails a lot, right? There's more teams. Some of them maybe are not better still teams like Italy and Denmark didn't qualify. That's significant.
00:53:51
Speaker
Um, There's a change in tie-breaking scenarios here. that This isn't necessarily because of the expanded World Cup, but it's it's very important. Head-to-head matchups will be taking precedent ahead of overall goal differential.
00:54:02
Speaker
That is pretty simple when it comes to a two-way tie. That is a massive complication when it comes to a three-way tie that finishes level and how that gets broken. That'll be interesting. And then a minute I think the the biggest point with the expanded World Cup and something that will matter to every single team playing is...
00:54:20
Speaker
Eight of the 12 teams that finish in third place will go through to the round of 32. You finish in the top two, you go through. If you finish in third place, you might go through. And all of the calculations and permutations that that is going to bring up and all of the number crunching that that will involve because finishing in third place is important, but it's only important if you finish well enough in third place to ensure that you're going through.
00:54:46
Speaker
This is not new to us. We've seen it before, but it's just a lot to ask of teams. We've seen over and over again, the information advantage is really, really key for the teams playing later. And the teams playing earlier, if you're going to be around the cut line, need to do more, never do enough.
00:55:06
Speaker
And, you know, we're we're going to assume, not assume, we're going to hope that all the teams are having the best people thinking about these challenges. But I... If our international football experience tells us anything, it's that they probably won't.
00:55:20
Speaker
They probably won't. And as an as a neutral, I do think the third place team going through has led to very delightful drama. Like it has. Do I miss the two teams go through pure double barrel action?
00:55:35
Speaker
Like, like purist drama was, was pretty good by itself. Pretty good. Didn't really need to change that one. FIFA, but the third place drama and like the fair play points and like how deep the tiebreakers you go.
00:55:47
Speaker
It's great theater. But it is 8 of 12, just not even in the diluting aspect. It's going to lead to some really, really baffling stuff and some weird stuff ending up mattering that you don't know, which makes the whole third final match day the whole way. Every little part of it can't miss stuff, but I'm talking in circles. It's...
00:56:10
Speaker
To me, it's crazy, but like we're going to enjoy it. Yeah. So you you said it. This isn't new to us, but in this sort of quantity, it is, right? We've never seen this many groups with this many teams. We've seen it at a Euro where it's you know four of six. We've seen it ah in certain scenarios where it's it's two of three and that kind of thing. But on this grand of a stage with this many possible permutations,
00:56:35
Speaker
We have not seen it. And so I think, Amit, it's important for us here as we're starting to talk about this World Cup to establish, first of all, that that line is going to be massively important. It's going to be obviously critically important for 12 teams, but it's going to be massively important. I think it's going it should at least inform so much of how we process and how we view the group stage. So...
00:56:57
Speaker
What do we think is going to be that line? It feels like it's somewhere around three points with a minus two or minus three goal differential is probably about where that cut line is going to sit. 2014 tournament examples. If you look at the past three UEFA Euros, which all featured four of six third place teams going through,
00:57:23
Speaker
In Euro 24, went through, three minus three was out. In Euro went through, out. in Euro went through, three minus two was out.
00:57:35
Speaker
the only forty eighteen tournament we've seen with this sort of format was the twenty twenty five ffa u seventeen world cup which saw three minus two in and three minus two out. It actually came down to fair play points, which is, again, something that could absolutely happen at this World Cup. If we look at a simulation from the fine folks over at Football Meets Data, as far as the percent chances of going through among the eight best third place teams,
00:58:07
Speaker
If you have four points, you're almost guaranteed to go through. Three points at a positive differential is the same. They have three points and zero a 96.3% chance going through. Three points minus one, 88.3. Three points minus two, 71.8. Three points minus three, 49.6. points four, 31.8.
00:58:18
Speaker
two points minus 7.4% chance going through.
00:58:23
Speaker
three points minus three forty nine point six three points minus four thirty one point eight and two points minus one as seven point four percent chance of going through All of that, Amit, is a lot of numbers and a lot of data to suggest that if you are one of the probably many teams that are looking at that third place spot as far as informing how you are going to play and what you are looking for,
00:58:48
Speaker
Three points is probably necessary. Obviously, that three points has to put you in third place and not fourth place in your specific group, which will be a conversation that I'm sure we will have.
00:58:58
Speaker
And if you can get to three points in a zero goal differential, you're probably feeling good. Yeah. The biggest percentage drop off here is three points minus two versus three points minus three. Yep. I think you kind of identified that specifically on the cutoffs and the historical examples. And I think the simulations would also back that kind of you have minus three. It's basically a toss up if you're at minus two, you're You're probably, probably in. yeah and So I think that's our going to be our best reference going forward. um I think, you know, I was going to say, I think there might be a higher chance of a two-point team getting in, but I'm going to trust the simulations here. It's probably less than 10%, even in 12 groups. I think, you know, you add the groups up, there's a lot more possibility for chaos. Right.
00:59:50
Speaker
But... it's just hard to have a ah group where you need five places to finish on two points for a third place team to go through with two points. yeah And because of the incentives, teams are playing for three points, even versus other world cups where, you know, three points and get you through playing for the draw does not help you.
01:00:09
Speaker
You pick a game, multiple games that you think you could win and you have to go win them. And if you don't win them, the other, like the other team wins them and everyone is making the same calculus. So I just,
01:00:21
Speaker
I get to that three point line. I think that makes sense. I think we'll see it right around there. um Could get random though. And that's what's super fun. So I think it's interesting because you looked at it from the perspective of the easiest way to get three points is obviously to win one game and get three points.
01:00:39
Speaker
I think about this from the perspective of, okay, if three points and zero gets me through, you know how I can get to three points and zero, I can draw three times, but that is such a difficult strategy to pull off, right? Like,
01:00:53
Speaker
Again, i I think of this from like the soccer terrorism point of view of like, just going play three straight nil nils and I'm going through. and It's just a game plan that is just, we've seen it time and time again, is not generally a good way to approach a World Cup campaign.
01:01:08
Speaker
Somebody was probably going to, somebody's going to try to do it. I look at the group that's in Belgium, Egypt, Iraq, and or ah Iran, and New Zealand as an example of somebody that's going to try to do it. But again, three points is probably easier gotten by smashing and grabbing once than bunkering and holding three times.
01:01:27
Speaker
Yeah, it's tricky. The second is the second you lose a draw, the strategy's off. Right, exactly. You can't get to three points. You're just incentivized to... You have to try to win somewhere. And the other thing is you have to try to limit your goal difference against the best team. Absolutely. That really, really matters. You've got to finish 90 minutes. You've got to defend hard. You've got to work for your...
01:01:50
Speaker
2-0 loss. like So that is a fun, you know i think, going to be a separator of the truly bad teams. like Can't do that. so yeah The math here is is always fascinating. i think we love that. and um Certainly, not all the teams will have it right. That's just the best part.
01:02:08
Speaker
And so I think a good way of approaching this is if you get to four points, you're going through unless something very weird happens and every team in your group finishes on four points. So that's ah a win and a draw, right?
01:02:21
Speaker
And then if you're on three points, you can probably get through as a, you have a shot to get through as a third place team. But again, the point that I brought up earlier that I think is really important here Three points doesn't guarantee you third place, right? Two teams can finish on three points in the same group and only one of them is is in third place and eligible to go through. And so that part of the calculus, I think, is something that we can't overlook throughout all of this, that those final day battles to finish in third and even get yourself into the comparative table is obviously going to matter a lot as well.
01:02:51
Speaker
And again, this is the type of stuff that that maybe it's not going to determine who wins the World Cup. You and I aren't expecting a team that's winning the World Cup to be going through in third place, but they could, right? We've seen... yeah I mean, the the scenario, i think, is if a bad team slips up ah makes a mistake and then they need to like try to get in yeah like in third place like that, you know, that could that can happen. So it's probably not what we're expecting, but the drama of who's making it through to the knockout stage while also realizing that making it to the knockout stage. And this is something that we're going to talk about a ton on our individual team previews in the group stage. Making it to the knockout stage is a is an accomplishment for a lot of teams in this World Cup.
01:03:35
Speaker
And so that boils down to, and this is something that you and I are going to refer to a lot, right how do you make the knockout stage? The easiest way to make the knockout stage is to get four points. Win a game and draw a game. and It doesn't really matter what happens in the other game if you can do that. And that, I think, is the base calculus that so many of these teams are probably going to be working from.
01:03:54
Speaker
Yeah, there is the there is the chance of two teams on three points getting to... four on the final day. There could be some shenanigans, but yeah, you're right. The the the math is say you get the four points and you're fine.
01:04:07
Speaker
Yeah. i mean again, the only way you're finishing fourth with four points is is if everybody gets four points, it could happen. We saw it happen. i believe it was at Euro 24. It might've been Euro 20. One of the times all four teams finished on four points could happen. But I think that is the the base calculus that a lot of these teams can, can start working from and and go from there. ah Man, I just want to get in and watch a bunch games now. But unfortunately, we still have a little bit of ways to go to get there.
01:04:30
Speaker
a I will be back to to to preview all the groups again. We'll have an in-depth preview on all 12 of the groups. Those will be coming out in the next coming days. where We will have, obviously, all of our regular World Cup coverage as well once the tournament starts.
01:04:44
Speaker
If you like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark podcast and want to support it, you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD for $3 month. You get access to subscriber-only perks. That being said, all of our preview stuff will be free to all with the biggest reach possible. And again, the best thing you can do if you like what we do is support us that way. And simply tell your friends. Tell them where they can get good, hopefully high-quality soccer discourse from people who have followed the international game for a long time heading to this World Cup. So Amit and I will be back.
01:05:12
Speaker
We will take you through all 12 of the groups. We've got our preview show. We've got a lot of fun stuff coming up before the World Cup, but it's good to get the basics all down before we do that. So we will chat to you guys soon. Thanks as always.