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WCAD 4-2: Group H Preview
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The group-by-group previews continue with a look at Group H, headlined by tournament favorites Spain, the potential end of El Loco Bielsa's run with Uruguay, and a feisty battle for third between uncertain Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde.
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Transcript
Uruguay's Forward Dilemma
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, everybody. Before we get to another World Cup group preview here on the World Cup After Dark, a couple of quick late-breaking updates, as is so often the case with the World Cup, some news that we got after recording but before publication. On this episode, you're going to hear a lot of talk about the issue that Uruguay has at the number nine position. One of the potential solutions that we postulated was the return for Luis Suarez. He had been very public in his insistence that he would be available for Uruguay.
Uruguay's World Cup Roster Decisions
00:00:29
Speaker
We got news after recording, but again, before publication, that Luis Suarez was not included in the Uruguay long list. And that means that he will not be among the options to be in the number nine position for Uruguay at this World Cup. And also some clarification on Georgian De Ascariyeta's injury. There's some talk that he may miss the entirety of the group stage, but could be available for the knockout round.
00:00:50
Speaker
couple of things to keep in mind as you listen to this episode. Enjoy the show.
00:00:56
Speaker
Amit, i ah I hope you're ready for me to throw a big word at you. You ready for a big word? Always.
Group H Overview and Dynamics
00:01:03
Speaker
We're talking Group H today on the World Cup After Dark podcast. And the word I want to use here is stratification.
00:01:09
Speaker
When you talk Group H, you got to talk about the stratification. Great big word. I agree that it is a good word to describe this group particularly. This group contains one of the pre-tournament favorites in Spain, a solid pot two team with very big questions that I think absolutely keep them from the top tier. In Uruguay, we have a weak pot three team just hoping to somehow get through in Saudi Arabia and a debut team from pot four that are probably among the least talented teams here. But again, in this expanded World Cup can talk themselves into a knockout round spot.
00:01:44
Speaker
I'm at 6-6-0-0 feels like the most likely outcome, right? When you look at the schedules of these teams. And then a double barrel last day that is determining a Spain-Uluguay matchup for the top spot.
00:01:56
Speaker
And a fight in third between Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde that could absolutely determine who's going through. Yeah, at least credit to the schedulers for doing it that way and giving us kind of the most intriguing matches on the final day. I think that's good for the drama.
00:02:14
Speaker
ah Yeah, it'd be hard to. it's Actually, the it's not that likely that we'll get 6-6-6-0, but it feels very likely. And I would perhaps even say that we would get there.
00:02:25
Speaker
You're backing Saudi Arabia or Cape Verde to get a point against Spain or Uruguay if you're predicting anything other than six six zero zero on the last day. It's just hard to imagine, and we're going to talk about why. Yeah, let's let's start with the draw here. And this, of it I think, is a group in particular where the draw is very, very interesting because Group H has been paired basically with Group J in the round of 32 for the group winners in the runner-up.
Potential Group H Knockout Scenarios
00:02:50
Speaker
And unluckily, the group winner draws a runner-up and they draw the runner-up of that Group J. Group J, of course, Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan. I say, of course, as if people have the letters and the groups match up. I have no idea which team is in which... just the The extra four groups have totally thrown off my sense of which team is with which letter.
00:03:11
Speaker
I agree. With eight, you kind of used to just... You almost, you know, through rote memorization, through enough reps would internalize it. And now, yeah maybe maybe talk to us at a month and we'll have it. But yeah certainly do not currently. I can get to D. After we get to D, they they just all kind of run together. But anyway... so the group winner here is playing the runner up for the Argentina group in Los Angeles.
00:03:29
Speaker
ah The runner up from the Portugal group and the England group would await in and the round of 16. The USA group, group D and the Belgium group, group J. Those winners are also in the quadrant for the group winner.
00:03:41
Speaker
The runner up here plays that Argentina group winner in Miami. ah Groups D and G, the runner-up in round of 16. Again, that's the same U.S.-Belgium group that we talked about earlier. They would meet in round of 16. The Canada group, Portugal group are also in the quadrant.
00:03:57
Speaker
All of that is a very complicated way of saying omit. The runner-up in this group has a very high chance of playing Argentina and vice versa for Argentina. If they finish runner-up, there's a very high chance of playing Spain as group winner.
00:04:09
Speaker
That means for Spain and Argentina, do you remember? Think all the way back to that draw that we did in December. FIFA made a whole big show about how they were keeping the two top-seeded teams separate, right? Got to keep them separated.
00:04:22
Speaker
They wanted to keep them separated. They did, but only if they win their group. And there's a non-zero possibility that Spain and Argentina could be meeting in the round of 32. That, I think, is the undercurrent of this group and the Argentina group.
00:04:37
Speaker
100%. It's very, very fascinating. Just because even as certain as you or anyone could be, i mean, again, it could be 6-6 on the final day and ah and a kind of a full-on rubber between Spain and Uruguay for it.
00:04:51
Speaker
I feel like Argentina-Austria is a bit easier. hu i don't know, actually. maybe they're They're both about similar kinds of teams. you know I see a dark horse. I see a former dark horse.
00:05:05
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, obviously, i you know I like Austria. I also like Uruguay. I think they're both solid teams, but I think they're both clearly ah class below. so Actually, I want to say they're similar, and we I think we agree. They're similar profiles, but close enough where something could go wrong, and and and you could be looking at that you know big, big, gigantic matchup in the round of 32, which I think would be really, really fun, but also really, really, really crazy. Yeah.
00:05:32
Speaker
Personally, I'm kind of hoping we don't get there. um I am going to say Argentina is a bit more likely to to win when that group just because.
00:05:45
Speaker
But I don't know. I think we're... Let's talk about Spain, Uruguay, and the whole thing here. it's it's ah It's a very fascinating debate. And the other thing I want to add before we get into it is that you want to have that goals difference advantage that you could play for the draw on the last day, which I'm sure you were going to mention. And so that makes running up the score and keeping your...
00:06:07
Speaker
Yeah, run up the score however you want to do it. Scoring, not conceding against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Important in those first two matches. So the focus has to be there. That's a good thing of this ah this format, I think, that even though some of the matchups are not great in the group stage and we knew that they weren't going to be great or that even that with three teams going through two-thirds of the time that there's less drama, the bracket forces you to matter. And very clearly here,
00:06:36
Speaker
Spain really would not want to finish the second this group. And Uruguay should be frothing at the mouth to get a chance on the last day to to like, hey, it's match three.
00:06:47
Speaker
This actually matters perhaps more to our title chances than anything else. could we Could we swing a big match? I think, I'm hoping, Spain will realize that. That that should be a really good game. I don't think Spain will be asleep.
00:07:03
Speaker
Uruguay could throw a big punch. Yeah, and those are kind of the things that are underlining, like sitting beneath the surface of of all these things that you've talked about. Again, sure, yeah, it's Spain and Cape Verde. It maybe isn't necessarily super attractive on its on its merits, but then you get into all of the other storylines and like that's the stuff that we're we're geeks. That's the stuff that you and I live for. Yeah. That's the stuff that's interesting. Let's get into Spain.
Spain's World Cup Prospects
00:07:26
Speaker
17 World Cup appearances, winners in 2010 in South Africa. They have qualified for every World Cup since 1974, but they have been dumped out of the group stage in 2014, and then they were dumped out in the round of 16 in 2018 and 2022. It's been a long time since Spain have had sustained World Cup success, but they do have major tournament success recently in Lamin-Gemal's coming out party in 2024. They won the Euro. They slayed France and England. They played beautiful football.
00:07:52
Speaker
Qualifying, not a lot to write home about. They were 5-0-1 in a group of Turkey. They drew Turkey at one point, but they also beat them 6-0 at another point. The biggest question, I think there's two big questions, Amit, for this Spain team.
00:08:05
Speaker
Their expectations, obviously, they're in that title or bust group. They are the slight betting favorites. We can get into whether we agree or not with that. But... With Spain, it comes down to, are their main players healthy? And that's a question that you and I are not going to have an answer for right now on this podcast. And we might not have an answer for it until they play a game that matters in in match day three or in the round of 32 or what have you. And then the second big question is, how does this beautiful Spanish football that we know and love work at a World Cup, which could have a hot attritional summer theme,
00:08:41
Speaker
And how do those two things combine with each other? I think those are the biggest questions for Spain. Yeah, well put. It's going to be fascinating. Long-time listeners of the podcast know Spain has always been one of my darlings. I think, you know, grew up definitely with the 2010 team and, you know, watching Lionel Messi's Barcelona and seeing that kind of fusion, Xavi and Iesta, all those guys. I've always been a fan of Spain's national team.
00:09:08
Speaker
I love the way they play. I love the commitment. I love when teams attack with the ball and do pretty things. Spain have always done that. As you said, there is something here to Spain's football being less effective at the World Cup, especially in a knockout stage where they've been dumped twice early and that a team can kind of bunker up and say, look, you you can do all the short passes you want.
00:09:31
Speaker
Um... But if you go sideways too much, you know we can get you on a counterattack. I think we're past that, right? Tiki Taka, it was done by the mid-2010s, right? Football is is past that, like Spain just passed sideways. They don't do that.
00:09:45
Speaker
But yes, they they want to have the ball and they want to break you down and they're prepared to play against you in a low block. um I think the thing for this Spain team is we know that they're technical enough to keep the ball away from you.
00:10:00
Speaker
But when push comes to shove, can you expose them on physicality in a tournament where physicality might be more on the menu because of the conditions?
00:10:11
Speaker
ah Can we say exactly how much so? I don't know. Is it something that's going to get them early or in the round of 32 16? The depth is so good here. We're about to talk about this team that I still think they should find their way into the quarterfinals. And I think this is a ceiling question for me.
00:10:29
Speaker
But there's very there's a lot of variables. Laminia Mall, number one, tore his hamstring. I heard tear. I heard the word tear in the Barcelona reports. This was kind of in April.
00:10:43
Speaker
He's supposed to play. regardless of even if he plays ah hundred percent coming off a tear in, in, in June. I mean, I struggled to see him at a hundred percent. I think maybe you're trying to get him towards a hundred percent in the last, you know, three or four games.
00:10:59
Speaker
Spain, of course, again, have great depth here. So, I think just on the the macro biggest part of it, when your whole style is based on breaking down teams, low blocks with your best winger, one of the best where is the world. And he is not,
00:11:17
Speaker
100%. He is a question mark. I have trouble with Spain as the best team in this tournament. I just do. And that's why, um you know, sequentially, this is, I think, the second podcast we're putting out. you You've probably heard us talk about France, or if you haven't, I think they're kind of should have the driver's seat of of title odds. And again, that's just over 20, 25%. I think Spain, i think you've got to consider the Laminya Mall aspect and heat. The heat...
00:11:43
Speaker
the heat could hurt them. They are not like Spanish players. These are not like the best athletes in in the world field. Like I think England and France have better athletes than them.
00:11:58
Speaker
They compensate for it by being so nice with the ball that you can't catch them. So will that work? That's what I want to see. Maybe they'll be so good. And we've seen that at their best, it doesn't matter if you're, you know, but a little bit better athletically than them. You're chasing shadows all game.
00:12:16
Speaker
those that's the balance we're trying to sort here. How do you see, you know, where do you want to attack that next? Yeah. So let's put a pin in the heat. Cause I got, I got a little bit for you on the heat and a little bit, but let's come back to that. Let's talk a manager for Spain. It's Luis de la Fuente. He was the man who led them to to success at Euro 2024 came in right after Luis Enrique in 2022.
00:12:36
Speaker
Didn't have much of a senior track record before taking this job. He's not an icon. He's not an idealist that might work in his favor, a bit more in the Del Bosque mold, if you will. Set the guys up, keep them happy, put the ball out there, let them go, wind them up, watch it run. That kind of seems like that's the vibe that Spain need at this point. And that seems like where high-level international teams, particularly the non-low-event variety, that's kind of the manager you're looking for.
00:13:04
Speaker
Agreed. the vibes are just kind of supposed to be managed nicely. And I think we've seen for both Spain and Germany, the two teams that play the most idealistic football, attacking football in their own ways. And we know I like Germany too. Is it sometimes when they bring in the guys that are like the head of idealism, it doesn't work because...
00:13:24
Speaker
They're almost like trying to imprint their system so much. It's hard to play the most ideal version of football um with a national team set up when you don't have the time for the club reps. So sometimes you just say, listen, these guys are smart footballing players. They're really talented.
00:13:44
Speaker
i want to let them solve the problems on the field. Now you need the players to do that. But when you're talking about a Spain, they're These guys are a lot of reps together. They are high IQ footballing players. And a lot of them are familiar with each other's games from the club level. There's a strong Barcelona theme in the last squad, in this squad that starts with Laminia Mall, that goes through Padre, that goes through Gavi, that goes through Olmo, that comes through Kubarsi, Balde.
00:14:17
Speaker
Half this team is a Barcelona team. And I think... That's incredible. the Barcelona ideas of really, really nice attacking soccer um is what to expect.
00:14:29
Speaker
And I think daaf ah da fuente isn't going to like De laf Fuente isn't going to go away from that. He's going to kind of say, we're just if this is a Barca team, play Barca football. like Why should he try anything else?
00:14:44
Speaker
Yeah. Sprinkle in some other talented players that we can pick in and take the best of what they do and just do it better. You said to me earlier on that that this is the modern evolution of Ticketacker, right? It's not the million of short passes side to side that we've seen, but it comes from that kind of tree of playing. it It certainly, I think, draws a contrast to what we'll see from the low event type teams, right? It draws a contrast to the big physical teams. The big physical teams, strong defenders, big bulky nine. You look at the Spain team, that is not present here. We're not getting that. There's no Vought Vaghorst that we're just going to lump it up to and do things if we fall behind. That could be a problem for Spain and their lack of big defenders could be a problem against the absolute best teams in the world. It's probably not going to cost you against Salam al-Basari in Saudi Arabia. But when you get up against a Harry Kane or whoever it may be, those are the spots I think where you and I are are looking at for Spain and saying, don't know if that's going to be there, but maybe they can simply just play well enough that that doesn't matter. That kind of feels like it's the goal for Spain. Yeah, we don't have defenders. We don't have a nine. We're going to play football that is so pretty, that is so good that none of that is even going to matter.
00:16:00
Speaker
And that's that's why we love Spain, because that is the the idealistic pursuit they choose to express at international football. It is awesome. It is ah sublime when it works, and it is maddening when it does not come off.
00:16:13
Speaker
And I think that's what you're going to see from them, because they just don't really have a defensive gear like that. Their defensive backline players are good defenders at good clubs, but they're ball-playing defenders. Kubarsi, if he plays. Le Normand at Atletico is okay.
00:16:32
Speaker
Heidson at Madrid is... I think the most physical, but I'm i'm not the most convinced. And then what are you getting ah at at fullback here? I think that's a big, big question for them. right you You could see Cucurea, who is at Chelsea. He kind of was the 2024 Euro run left back.
00:16:50
Speaker
Right back, you could see um Danny Carvajal. I don't think so. right you You could see Pedro Poro, who is a little... slight at Tottenham.
00:17:01
Speaker
I would love to see some more physicality to balance it out for Spain as it goes. I'd love to see Balde, who is a great athlete on the left, and I'd love to see Marcos Llorente, who is a midfield right wing hybrid on the right. And I would feel a lot better about Spain, but because of the way De La Fuente plays, I think he's just kind of going to not rock the boat.
00:17:22
Speaker
and and just kind of play the guys that have been together. And I think Kukurea is a liability at the highest level. He's just not... like He's like a replacement level Champions League left back, which is a spoil to have for sure. There's some other teams in this group that would say, yeah, we'll take him.
00:17:41
Speaker
Yeah. And so that's where I'm just... i'm i'm just flagging that defensive back for physically against teams that are going to attack them, especially if they decide to sit off, you can find the ball in the box and you can generate chances.
00:17:57
Speaker
Now, the thing we see with Barcelona is that they could, they could put up three or four on you. And that's one thing that even if you take a lead on them, if you're up one,
00:18:08
Speaker
There's not enough time to defend that lead. like They will just keep coming at you. So I think this Spain team is going to be box office. um And I think they're going to play some good knockout football. But generally, when push comes to shove in knockout, grimy international football like that, those limits are tested.
00:18:29
Speaker
Now, we talk about the midfield and attack. You see why they think they could do that. Yeah, so quickly in goal, Unai Simon, Raya, interesting decision that Spain will have. I wouldn't be surprised if you see both of them in the group stage, right? And then you kind of put that decision off for later. But you talked about question lines with the back line. We'll get to the nine in a minute.
00:18:49
Speaker
And then you get to the midfield and you just say, you want to set a center midfielder? And the answer is yes. And the answer is just always yes for Spain. And there are so, it's it's a plethora of options. It's a cornucopia of midfield playmakers here.
00:19:01
Speaker
How do you even choose between these guys? I don't know. I mean, I think Rodri should start. And Rodri was the linchpin of everything at the 2024 Euro. And then he didn't even play in the in the in the final, right? He gets hurt. And this is where kind of Zubimendi and Marino are the heroes of the Spanish development pipeline, that they're just kind of La Liga guys hanging out.
00:19:26
Speaker
they throw in and Spain wins the Euro. I think it has to be Rodri. He's the other question mark here where he's healthy. He's playing at Man City. He missed a game. He's had his ACL tear last year.
00:19:39
Speaker
I think this year at Manchester City, he has lacked some of that explosiveness and burst in covering ground. And at his peak, he is a more athletic Sergio Busquets. I am a Roger Truther. I think at his peak, he's the best midfield in the world, right? You stick him at the base of midfield and he solves everything for you. He keeps the ball. You can't press him. He also can win the ball and hold up the base of a single pivot. He also gets in positions to shoot. Like, he does everything.
00:20:05
Speaker
If he's even 10 or 20% worse... it's a lot to ask one guy to do everything and he can't do it all. So does he need help? And does he need defensive help?
00:20:18
Speaker
Spain's got a lot of guys that keep the ball, but they don't really want to give him defensive help. They just want guys that are going to play the ball nicely. I don't know how that works out. And that's where I think Rodri's on the sheet. But then how do you work the balance around him that that in a way you like? And do you need a midfielder that's defensive next to him and attacking? you need two attacking? you need two defensives?
00:20:41
Speaker
You think Pedro's on the team sheet, right? He's the the best Barca passer. That third role is is fascinating. I don't know. you could In the past, I think you you got a lot of Danny Olmo, who is kind of 10-shadow striker hybrid.
00:20:55
Speaker
You could go defensive with Nico Gonzalez. You could go safe passing with Zubimendi. There's Fabian Ruiz. There's the defensive Nico Gonzalez. There's Gavi.
00:21:06
Speaker
ah I don't know. I mean, i think they have to mix and match, right? Yeah, you're probably looking at a match-based thing. You're going into this match-by-match and trying to figure out what the other teams are looking at for you. The interesting thing about this is these are questions that we might not get for a while with Spain, unless they fall into a round of 32 matchup with Argentina, in which case, well, you better have the answers pretty quick in the knockout stage. But we'll get to that. On the wings, amit you've got Nico Williams. We've talked about Lamine Yamal already.
00:21:31
Speaker
Okay options by Ana and Adamatore. I really like the way that that you put this when we we were talking about this earlier. With the forward position, you have forwards and also midfielders moonlighting as forwards because that's kind of the vibes that Spain are looking for here. You've all obviously got Ollar Thabo, Dani Olmo, both of those guys in that kind of vibe, Ferran Torres. And then you look at the kind of like out and out forward options. Again, with 26 players in the squad, Spain are going to have to bring somebody who can do the grimy kind of nine stuff.
00:22:00
Speaker
Don't know who that's going to be. Is that somebody like Borja Iglesias? Could it be someone like you pulling all the way back and looking like at at a Haselu? Is it something like Alvaro Morata who hasn't necessarily been in the picture? There's going to be a 9 in this team, like a traditional out-and-out 9. I just don't know how effective it will be or how often it would be deployed.
00:22:23
Speaker
this is why we used to see Morata all the time for Spain. He has always been an okay striker, but like a real striker is better than a non real striker. And he's kind of not been, I think you were, we were talking about this earlier. He's kind of not been in the picture for a little bit, right? Like they've just been playing for on Torres and, or your thaw ball.
00:22:43
Speaker
So like, I don't know what they're going to do. i think, Torres has played st striker for Barca and he's actually a very good off ball movement player. He's not the physical profile of a nine. He's like, yeah, but like a six, Oh five, 11 guy. And he's burst of speed, but like you're not crossing to him a ton. You're not holding it up, but he's a very smart mover.
00:23:07
Speaker
So I, my guess would be the Barca DNA of the squad. I think it it'll be Torres and try to use his chemistry with, um, let me mean, Yamal and Padre and Olmo, if that's there.
00:23:19
Speaker
Again, i think they're going to have to find their best rhythm and mix and match and try subs and we'll see. And then I think the other thing is if it's not Yamal, who plays right wing?
00:23:31
Speaker
and I don't even think there could be another guy we haven't named. Is it a midfielder there? That's that's is it Lorente? Like could be. Yeah. It's obviously a big difference, right? like those are That is such a big, big drop-off. And i mean, Lamin-Yemal, just when he's healthy, he's the most audacious winger in the world. I don't know if he's the best, but he will try everything and he can beat you by himself.
00:23:54
Speaker
If he can tap into that, yes, Spain have a chance to win it all. Without him, I think breaking down a set defense is a bit harder, right? so Yeah.
00:24:06
Speaker
and And one of the questions with Spain, I think, and this is something that I think we'll refer to a lot with these teams is as we've seen from international football recently, it helps to have a plan B, right? It helps. It's the famous Mike Tyson quote, right? Everybody's got a play until they get punched in the mouth.
00:24:23
Speaker
It helps to have that that you can pivot to where it's we're just spamming balls forward and we're going to play chaos football for 15 minutes at the end of this game and something will go in I don't know that Spain has that.
00:24:35
Speaker
I don't know if there's enough teams that can ask the level of Spain where Spain will need that for it to be an issue. But it feels like at every single World Cup, everybody at some point faces that moment where there's 10 minutes to go in this game and we need a goal.
00:24:51
Speaker
What are you going to do? and I don't know that Spain have an answer for that other than, well, we're going to do what we did for the 80 minutes and hope that in this 10, it goes right. that That is kind of what they do. And especially again, if you're thinking about that Barcelona DNA, that's what Hansi Flick does. He just says, keep running the press, keep running the counter press.
00:25:11
Speaker
I think another thing to watch is how aggressive Spain's counter press can be because Padre and whoever, Rodri and the wingers and the forwards run a ridiculous counter press at Barca.
00:25:25
Speaker
That is like sometimes and a super high line that is sometimes almost suicidal. Yeah. Can you play that same high line with Spain? And if you do against the team with a fast enough striker,
00:25:36
Speaker
I mean, the scariest team is France. I don't, I think that's a, that'd be a semifinal matchup if it gets there. Yeah. What happens when you give a good striker the ball with 10 yards of space and you get shredded? And the way to beat Spade is not to be up one and hold on.
00:25:50
Speaker
It's to go up one and then they play the highlight again and then you score two and then they're in trouble. That is the Spain nightmare is that they chase one so aggressively they go down two.
00:26:02
Speaker
And that I think is where they can get got. i I don't think like... i Honestly, I think the thing for them, like you're saying, if they're down 10, I kind of back them to get one.
00:26:13
Speaker
But are they too aggressive? Is that the issue? the to me, a very, very big problem for Spain is how do they see out one goal leads against teams like really bullying them?
00:26:25
Speaker
I'm not sure they have the defensive options. I think their best kind of defensive sub is like Nico Gonzalez at Manchester City as like a bruiser in the midfield. They don't really have another way to like shut off the game.
00:26:39
Speaker
Right. Yeah. So what's the answer? wherere We're up one. Let's get up two. Right. Like like that that is probably their best strategy. Yes. Yes. But yes, there's probably going to be a moment where, again, that 10 minute equation is flipped. And Spain, all right, we're up one. We have to see out these 10 minutes. What does that look like? yeah Can you get them into that tactics-free zone where they're you're down one you You don't want to be down one, but if you're there, can you not be down two and really like ask questions of their back line? think that's that's fascinating. so I think they're a little bit more flawed. If you can't tell, I think they're a little bit more flawed than everyone's giving them credit for for a nominal favorite. I think this is going be a challenging World Cup for them. Can they win it? Absolutely. One thing i also love is they're like two or three deep at every position, which is just a great time. Yeah. And that is like, that's France, England, Spain. No one else is at that level, I think. So how do you feel about their their status? And it's also, you know, we're talking about them for almost 20 minutes or 15 minutes.
00:27:36
Speaker
This is the group H preview. This is the conversation Spain has to be in when talking about them as ah as a contender because this group is not so imposing. Right. These questions we're asking are questions we're asking with an eye towards a high-level quarterfinal, a high-level sidefinal. We're not asking this question because we think that the Blue Sharks are going to get something off Spain, or we think that the Green Falcons are going to... Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are not going to possess the questions to trouble Spain, I don't think.
00:28:02
Speaker
But way down the line, these are the types of questions that we're certainly going to be looking for. right. I told you I'd put a pin in that heat question. You talked about it. If you look at the Spain fixtures, they might, omit, be able to get through this World Cup without having to face too much heat. Their first two group stage matches are in Atlanta, obviously domed stadium, controlled environment.
00:28:26
Speaker
Their third match is in Guadalajara, which is going to be in Mexico, bit higher altitude, shouldn't be super hot. And then if they win their group, their knockout stage until the final, which is at MetLife, which will be hot, is LA, Dallas, LA, Dallas.
00:28:41
Speaker
Could Spain actually play this World Cup without facing that bruising US heat? I like the way that sounds. If you're saying the knockout round is round of 32 LA, 16 Dallas, quarterfinal LA, semifinal Dallas.
00:28:57
Speaker
That is very nice for Spain. That is very nice for Spain. Obviously, if they make a final that we know that'll be outdoors um at MetLife and that would be a challenge for both teams.
00:29:08
Speaker
But that's that's good, I think, for Spain in ah in a in a hot, you know, tournament. And also I think, again, the thing that will help them make a run deep run is through those four knockout games. They have the squad depth. Yeah.
00:29:25
Speaker
Again, we're saying this over and over is going to be a theme. I think particularly of this world cup. Um, I don't know if I, how I feel exactly about them, but I, I think they should get to the semifinal.
00:29:38
Speaker
It'd be, it'd be, it'd be tough. Um, Yeah. um And again, that's added incentive for Spain to win the group, right? That's just another thing that you toss because that round of 32 matchup is in Miami, which, ah yeah, that'll be hot. Can confirm. All right. Let's talk about Uruguay.
00:29:53
Speaker
This is their 15th World Cup appearance. They're obviously two-time champions. They won the very first World Cup in 1930. They won the famous World Cup in 1950. Tons of footballing history. Not so much necessarily in the modern era, but they are a world power.
00:30:07
Speaker
It's their fifth straight World Cup. They famously finished fourth in 2010 when they got to the semifinals. But this Uruguay-Amit gives us not just the return of Uruguay. It gives us the end of a Marcelo-Bielsa cycle, but on the World
Uruguay's Tactical Approach under Bielsa
00:30:21
Speaker
Cup stage. For those uninitiated, Marcelo Bielsa is a tactically minded Argentine manager that is everything you want in a football manager.
00:30:32
Speaker
Obsessive over the details, has a defined style of play. When it goes right, it's beautiful. When it goes wrong, and it often does, it absolutely explodes.
00:30:42
Speaker
When you take that and you throw it with the already combustible Uruguay national Gaara pride, we could have massive fireworks from Uruguay at this World Cup. The fact that Bielsa got to this World Cup is kind of surprising.
00:30:56
Speaker
um He's never afraid of criticism. See his comments post a 5-1 friendly loss to the U.S. Men's National Team when he said, quote, there's no way to justify this result. Went through a very detailed explanation of what he thought went wrong in that game.
00:31:10
Speaker
The Bielsa cycle is a big up with a rejuvenation of the style followed by a big crash when the players simply decide that they don't want to play that style much more. And you know where we're at on the Bielsa curve, Amit?
00:31:22
Speaker
We are right at the end of it, ready for that big crash. It's a tough spot for Bielsa and Uruguay to be. They're going to have to overturn Argentina if they don't overturn Spain.
00:31:32
Speaker
And that's just a tough game. Now, again, the style is is good, right? It's a physical style that's pressing style. If you could just get that turnover and score that goal, and then you have Spain on the ropes, right? it's talking about they're kind of vulnerable to physicality. yeah i I like that for them.
00:31:51
Speaker
But I don't like that the players don't like it. And we're going to talk about this team. like It's such a good match, but when you play Bilsa Chaos Ball, you need the guys to score the goals.
00:32:05
Speaker
And at best, it feels like a dice roll right now. And that's at best. And I think that is, to your point, it's all brewing for a bad sign for this project, right?
00:32:16
Speaker
Yeah, and you need the buy-in. And I don't know that that's there at this point in the cycle. So, right, Marcelo Bielsa took over Uruguay in May of 2023, beat Brazil and Argentina in qualifying, eliminated Brazil from the Copa America in 2024, where they finished third.
00:32:32
Speaker
And from there, the cycle kind of started a downturn, right? Luis Suarez retires. It's kind of controversial in September of 2024. Spoiler alert, maybe not. We'll get to that in a second. There's criticism from Suarez, who's obviously very outspoken for Bielsa.
00:32:46
Speaker
Unuguay fade down the stretch of qualifying, but they still qualify comfortably because qualifying in South America really allows you to do that. And here we are. With this big a Bielsa team, Amit, we... Trying to project what they will do is really hard because it will change on every single day. And Marcelo Bielsa could say, i went with this player because i I noticed that the wind was going to be five miles an hour more from the south than from the north. So that's why we went... It's impossible to predict what's going to happen. So...
00:33:13
Speaker
You and I know the protagonists. We don't really know how they're going to be deployed. Interestingly enough, Uruguay have used five different goalkeepers in the last five matches. Franco Israel, Christopher Fiermian, Fernando Muslera, Sergio Rochette, Santiago Mele.
00:33:26
Speaker
I think that last trio, Muslera, Rochette, Mele, is probably going to be the squad. I think Santiago Mele might be the first choice. Let's see. In defense, I think Ronald Arrujo is one of the first names on the team sheet. It's probably alongside Jose Maria Jimenez or Matias Oliveira at center back.
00:33:44
Speaker
Oliveira could also flex the fullback. Guillermo Varela, the Flamengo man, is probably the starter right back. ah You look at Joaquin Piquerez, another fullback option. He tore a ligament recently for Palmetas. Actually, for playing for Uruguay against England, the Palmetas player, should probably make the squad.
00:33:59
Speaker
In goal and defense, I feel like Uruguay okay. They might not have the level of defense, though, that we've come accustomed to with them. Yeah, I mean, Jose Jimenez is getting up there, and he's not very fast at this point, and that is an issue. But he's still a good physical center back. I think Araujo has had a tough season. Not tough. He did a fine season at Barca. He's kind of not the first choice center back anymore, um but they still use him, and I still think he's a the physical type of duels winner you need to play this system. I think in defense, it's it's not necessarily the issue here for Uruguay.
00:34:37
Speaker
Moving up to the midfield, Rodrigo Bentancur is back from injury. He should be an option. Federico Boverde just got into a fight in the Real Madrid dressing room, but I think he should start alongside them. And who knows, maybe that plays in his favor. Manuel Lugarte is another piece centrally.
00:34:52
Speaker
Uruguayan central midfield pieces, I think, are there. Georgian Derascaeta, another injury concern. He broke his collarbone recently playing for Flamengo. Looks like he should make the World Cup. I think he'll be in a traditional 10-roll.
00:35:04
Speaker
Lots of different options out wide, right? You've got Maxi Araujo. You've got Fuglielmo Polistri. Very Bielsa-esque. Real Salt Lakes, Juan Manuel Sanabria came out of nowhere to be a defensive wing option. That seems to... He's gained some favor. You watch De La Cruz, another option. You might see all of these guys at the same time. You never really know.
00:35:24
Speaker
But again, pieces are there and the pieces feel okay in the midfield. Yeah, none of these guys outside of Valverde, I think, are like excellent players, but they're all solid players. And they're all solid for Bielsa's system.
00:35:39
Speaker
Valverde, again, is a great physical engine. He's exactly the type of player you want to run a physical press with. Betancourt been pretty bad at Spurs, but I don't think it's because he's a horrible player. He's he's a perfectly fine like auxiliary midfielder, and he he can press. Ugarte is a bruiser. right You've got three physical guys.
00:36:02
Speaker
Araujo and Palestri are just like your textbook wingers. They are tricky enough. They cross, they drivel. They're like, they're good. They're not like Champions League level wingers, but like, I think that's what you want to like, hopefully give them the ball enough times and they'll make something happen. This is a team by volume approach. You're supposed to be tough down the middle. You're not trying to do anything pretty, but you're trying to win the ball.
00:36:28
Speaker
get Go towards goal, be direct, play long balls or get your wingers in space. And i think enough one-on-one battles, they can do something. You're funneling the ball into the box as much as possible, creating a high-value chances, and then you needed a forward to score one.
00:36:43
Speaker
Yeah, and that's where the questions really come in for this Uruguay squad. um I have no idea what they're going to do in a attack. I think Marcelo Bielsa has no idea what they're going to do attack. let's I'll give you a brief rundown of what we're looking at here. right So Agustin Canovio is back in the picture. He was out of the picture for two years after some harsh criticism for Bielsa. The big Uruguayan hope from recent years has been Darwin Nunez. He went to Saudi Arabia in August of 2025.
00:37:10
Speaker
And then in February in Saudi Arabia, he got deregistered so that they could play Kareem Benzema. He's played only 30 minutes since February. Those were in a pair of March friendlies. Good stuff. Exactly what you're looking for from your talismanic nine going into the World Cup. Rodrigo Aguirre, Federico Vines got starts in those March friendlies.
00:37:28
Speaker
Neither really inspired. All of that, Amit, leads us to the big drumroll, please, where as we record this, you and I on May 11th to release in a couple of weeks, we are legitimately asking the question, could Luis Suarez be back in the Uruguay picture? He retired from Uruguay, as I mentioned earlier, in September 2024. Got a farewell match. Got the whole kit and caboodle, right? Burned all of his Marcelo Bielsa bridges on the way out.
00:37:54
Speaker
But you know what he is? He is a number nine who holds a new Hawaiian passport and he's been scoring goals for fun for Inter-Miami at the Lionel Messi and Friends Project. And he's done his part. He publicly came out recently, said he's, quote, apologized to everyone I've got to apologize to and I can't say no to the national team if they call.
00:38:12
Speaker
The 55-man squad for Uruguay has been submitted. We'll see if Luis Suarez is on that. um How bad is your nine situation? The guy that retired two years ago might be your best option.
00:38:25
Speaker
It's not good. And I think all of this is probably an indictment on Darwin Nunez, who many were hoping, myself included, would be the answer at number nine for Uruguay.
00:38:37
Speaker
Like, he was at Liverpool, just an electric talent, speed, um ball striking, but he's a really bad finisher, which is a pro bad problem to have if you're a number nine. also has no form, which not great. Yeah, he has no form. You know, he kind of had...
00:38:55
Speaker
ah and You know, the mentality part of his game wasn't his strength is however way you want to talk about it. I mean, he kind of it didn't work for him.
00:39:07
Speaker
It's not good what's happened after he left Liverpool. I still think he you probably have to start him because of what he allows you to do stylistically. You can bunker and kick long and he can run and he can jostle with center backs.
00:39:21
Speaker
It's just a problem if you're giving him the ball five times on a platter and he's not scoring. And then it really mounts. And i don't think Aguere or Vinas good enough for the level I don't know if Canobio is good enough to level. He's like replacement level to me.
00:39:41
Speaker
Luis Suarez, I have seen him in MLS and he cannot move. He is so slow. I think I could beat him in a foot race. And like, I don't say that about a lot of professional soccer players. He just, he just cannot get on his horse.
00:39:57
Speaker
Can he stand on the, in the box for like an hour or like 20 minutes and be a super sub? I don't have a problem with that, but like you cannot count on him.
00:40:08
Speaker
Then again, do you need a striker to score some a volume of chances handed? you want to play it against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde? Maybe it is Luis Suarez. This is ridiculous. And again, goes back to being in Diamond and Darwin Nunez. I think for Uruguay to get anywhere, Nunez has to play the system. Luis Suarez cannot run the system at all. In fact, there there is no system when Luis Suarez is there. But i I mean, what what would you do? I don't i don't know. Yeah, and then you just get into this constant push and pull of Bielsa's utter inability throughout the entirety of his managing your career that you've seen in every single stop that he's made. He doesn't compromise. And there is a ton to be said positively for that. And there's also, I think, a ton to be said negatively for that. And then you just have these...
00:40:57
Speaker
strong-headed personalities like Luis Suarez, which again, the clash is just all set up to be there. And I think this has all been a very long-winded way of saying that Uruguay are kind of a mess.
00:41:10
Speaker
They should probably be better than Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. And the far and away most likely scenario here is, this is not the way to put it, but a ho-hum second place in this group.
00:41:22
Speaker
Then a feisty round of 32 elimination against Argentina. And there's probably red cards guaranteed when Oduguay go out against Argentina. It's hard to envision any other way that this plays out.
00:41:34
Speaker
I agree. they Again, the draw has not been kind to them. i think if they got someone else um in the round of 32, they could make a statement. There's a chance they could punk Spain.
00:41:45
Speaker
There's a chance they could punk Argentina. But we've seen Uruguay-Argentina. If Argentina are up for it, again, it's a feisty, scrappy game, but it's it's tough. And I think the other thing is, with this Uruguay-Bielsa team, this is a game state team for sure.
00:42:03
Speaker
They want to be up one. They want to be at 0-0. There is not enough players in the right creative roles for this team to be really dangerous down one.
00:42:15
Speaker
Because like what is your plan B? Is it Luis Suarez? like Is it Arasqueta is already on the field and he's like not an elite 10? He's a perfectly fine international 10. I like him.
00:42:28
Speaker
um I'm just... yeah It's a narrow window for this team to get where they want to go. It could be successful against other teams. it Spade and Argentina is the top of the pile. And i i I put their chances of getting the results in either of those games below 30.
00:42:48
Speaker
And maybe that's... I think that's about fair. They're all just bad matchup. Like Spain just stylistically doesn't fit because so what a West thing and we're going to presser you. We're going to force you Like Spain could pass for days and they're just going to be like, Oh, come get it. Oh, you didn't get it. Oh, you didn't get it. Oh, look, we're three on two.
00:43:07
Speaker
right And so like that's just not a great recipe for Uruguay, I think, to be successful. And as we've seen time and time again, the Elsa system works when you get 100% buy-in from 11 players on the pitch. The second you don't have that, it falls apart.
00:43:20
Speaker
I don't think that's there. Uruguay are always up for a World Cup. I'm not going to question that. But I think the buy-in to this system itself isn't going to be there. And when it's not, it's just going to create too much friction for there to be anything successful.
00:43:33
Speaker
I agree. It's not that it won't work, but it's ah it's it's not a good proposition. I would i would be fading this Uruguay team relatively hard in the scheme of it. And I think if you want like their their best case scenarios, Valverde scores a banger or two, Nunez catches a heater or two, that could change their fortune, right? They could play from advantageous game states. They could battle. They could grime. They could muck it up. And then you might feel a little bit better
Uruguay's Challenges in Advancing
00:44:02
Speaker
Let's see. I think.
00:44:04
Speaker
I don't think they can get it done against Spain. I think against Argentina, maybe if they catch them on the right day, Valverde can do something. But the other team is going to be keyed in against him. I'm just not sure he has enough help either. And that's not great when that's your best player. No, it's not. And I think it's just it's just not a great recipe. And maybe you're prove us wrong. And maybe Marcelo Bielsa has one final great up for us. But it just all the signs feel like they they really pointed down.
00:44:28
Speaker
Yeah, the other other thing I add, I think this if they're going to be a mucky team, they could be pretty dangerous on set pieces. I think you've got a few good headers of the ball. I think Araujo, I think Jimenez, I think Nunez. And then you've got a guy like Arasqueta that can deliver that ball.
00:44:44
Speaker
You know, there's a chance that that could help them um boost their, you know, their their window a little bit. Let's see what it looks like. If their press is good enough, maybe they could get to Spain or Argentina.
00:44:57
Speaker
There's a chance, but we're both a little skeptical. We talked about the top two teams in this group. Let's shift to the bottom two teams who we think will be fighting it out for third place in a potential spot in the round of 32.
Saudi Arabia's World Cup Preparations
00:45:08
Speaker
Saudi Arabia have been one of our favorite chaotic elements at a World Cup for the past couple of World Cups.
00:45:13
Speaker
They arrive at the 2026 World Cup fittingly in chaos. This is their seventh World Cup overall, their third straight. Group stage exit in every single World Cup appearance, save for 1994.
00:45:24
Speaker
Coincidentally, also in the US s when they reached the round of 16. They obviously famously beat Argentina to open up the 2022 World Cup, but did not turn that into any further success. ah Roberto Mancini and Hev Renard managed them through qualifying. Mancini got them through round two unimpressively against Jordan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan.
00:45:42
Speaker
He got sacked near the start of round three. Hev Renard, one of our the perfectly dressed, fantastically coiffed Hev Renard, came in. Guided them to round four, well behind Japan and Australia. In round four, they weren't very good.
00:45:54
Speaker
They beat Indonesia 3-2. That result allowed them to play for a nil-nil draw against Iraq. That qualified them. They put together pretty much zero impressive performances in their World Cup qualification campaign.
00:46:05
Speaker
Middling-friendly results under Hebronarda Ho-Hum run at the Arab Cup. and then in March, they were drubbed 4-0 by Egypt. And that meant that Evernard could read the writing on the wall. He lost the dressing room. And he reportedly started negotiating with Ghana for the job. Saudi Arabia Federation did not like that. He got sacked.
00:46:23
Speaker
And so, Amit, in steps Georgios Danos, the good for Georgios Danos, the Greek manager. he's very familiar with the Saudi game. He's managed in the country for a while. He has a track record of short-term success after taking charge.
00:46:36
Speaker
He's got a combination of pragmatism, counterattacking that might suit this Saudi side. The bad is unfortunately that he might not be a good manager. He's been at Al Khalij, which is not one of the bigger clubs in Saudi Arabia for nearly two years.
00:46:48
Speaker
63 matches, 20 wins. That's not a great record. All bar two of this team play in the Saudi Pro League. That doesn't have to be a negative, but it might be. There's familiarity with Donis, but it's hard to see him turning this side into anything but what we saw in qualifying, which is a pretty inconsistent mess of vaguely talented players that the second they run into anything better than them is just going to fall apart and get run.
00:47:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's a pretty great summary of where Saudi Arabia are at. I mean, like, someone has to manage. That's how I feel like Tanas is. They just were like, who's a guy in the Saudi league that can do a decent job? Like...
00:47:29
Speaker
Yeah, he will manage his team. What will he bring to them will be any different. Almost nothing. It's also just tough that they like to use the ball and at a stage like the World Cup, they just don't have to do that. And they're very bad at playing like defended counter that even like their style is good at. They're just not like that athletic top end.
00:47:51
Speaker
They're better at like possessing the ball. Again, they they actually are like decent passers, dribblers, and like creative, but the space is not there against the top teams.
00:48:02
Speaker
let's Let's see. Yeah, and let's see is another way of saying probably not, right? Like the space and time and passing works when you're playing other middling, like second tier Asian teams. But we've seen it, right? We saw what happened when Saudi Arabia played Japan. Like we've seen them come against top tier Asian teams and it's gone poorly.
00:48:21
Speaker
Now you take that and you're giving me a legit top tier team period in Spain and one that can run Saudi Arabia into mistakes like Uruguay. yeah Yeah, I'm not liking this.
00:48:34
Speaker
yeah The issue here, that yeah before we run through some of the players, is that... I think it'd be of great accomplishment and goal to try to get out of the group. I think that's what they're going to try to do i think that's what Cape Verde are going to try to do. It's fascinating, but because of the way the draw works and because Spain and Uruguay need goals, you're not escaping Spain and Uruguay like one goal each or maybe two goals each. And then you've got to win by two or three goals to get that goal difference to minus two or minus three.
00:49:06
Speaker
It's just tough. It is. It is. So let's talk some of the the players we'll be talking about with Saudi Arabia. Mohamed El-Weiss should start in goal. There's not a ton of defensive experience, which doesn't really fit with the whole ah Donis, perhaps pragmatic approach to this. Saoul Alou Hamid plays at Lenz. He's one of the two players playing outside of the Saudi Pro League. He's going to be the right back.
00:49:28
Speaker
I think Abdullah Al-Amiri is one of the centerbacks. I have no idea who's going to be the second centerback. I don't know if Giorgio Zadonis knows who's going to be a second centerback. Again, we're working with nothing here because he has literally not managed Saudi Arabia in a single match.
00:49:41
Speaker
There's experience in the midfield. Mohamed Kano can run box to box. Salman Afaragi is a playmaking option. Marwan Al-Sahafi at Antwerp is a young, promising player. He could be dangerous on the wing. Salem al-Dusari wasn't in the March squad, but he you imagine that he returns to captain the side.
00:49:56
Speaker
Probably Saudi Arabia's most talented player. Certainly one of the options that we've come to know throughout their various World Cup campaigns and qualifying campaigns. Up top, it's Abdul Alhamdan, Firas Al-Burrakeen. They're decent strike options. They have decent goal scoring records. But again, those are coming against low-level Asian sides.
00:50:14
Speaker
You can probably only play one of those guys against Spain or Nagoya. There's not room to be putting out two strikers against those teams. It just doesn't feel like man for man enough is there for Saudi Arabia to trouble those teams.
00:50:26
Speaker
And so the question kind of comes to what can they do against Cape Verde? And that feels like where they'll be playing more at their level. I think that's the to see if they can get a result out of that game and hope that it's enough for the third place table.
00:50:39
Speaker
That is a fascinating game. We're about to talk about Cape Verde. For this team, like that game, they might be able to use the ball and you see the quality like Al Farad or Aldasari doing things creatively. That's where they it worked for them in Asia.
00:50:54
Speaker
Against the other teams, like... I think this is worse than the team that that just scalped Argentina. And again, a crazily lucky game at the 2022 World Cup.
00:51:04
Speaker
um But even in qualifying, we just kind of saw that they were worse than that. um Their Asian Cup result was was pretty middling. Yeah.
00:51:16
Speaker
It's been a long time since we've seen them play, like even against teams that are more their level, we haven't seen them play well in a long time. time It's been four plus years. so It's hard to expect that to change.
00:51:30
Speaker
like You don't go from playing Iran to playing Spain and like, oh, we're playing better all this. like That's just not generally what happens here. And with all the managerial kind of stuff as well, it's just the recipe just doesn't feel great.
00:51:43
Speaker
And as we'll get to in a second, I think I like just everything about Cape Verde significantly more than I do about the Saudi Arabia team, even if maybe they're not as talented. I agree. Let's talk about Cape Verde. I think it's a fascinating case.
00:51:57
Speaker
You could not wait to get out of that Saudi Arabia conversation. And I'm with you on that. It's like, I mean, not like, Yeah, no, I'm with you. I want to talk about Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, because it's a good game. But like it's i mean the the thing for Saudi Arabia is they need the ball, and they will only have it against Cape Verde.
00:52:17
Speaker
And that's where that's where it's fascinating. And I just think there's like two difference makers on the pitch for Saudi Arabia. The other thing is their defense is physically not very good. um Against Cape Verde, it might be able to hold up. But even up one, like even if they steal a goal, like I struggle to see how that works for them over 90 minutes.
00:52:36
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's hard to picture how Saudi Arabia can play and have success in this group. So
Cape Verde's Debut and Potential
00:52:40
Speaker
let's talk about Cape Verde. It's their first time at the World Cup. They are the Blue Sharks, one of the smallest countries to ever make the World Cup. They impressively topped their group in CAF with a 7-2-1 record. They got to this World Cup over Cameroon, a massive 1-0 win over Cameroon in September. That was the key victory. They have not had a ton of success at the African Cup of Nations yet. They missed the most recent African Cup of Nations.
00:53:04
Speaker
But in 2023, they had a good run. They finished in the quarterfinals. They topped the group with Egypt. They beat Mauritania, and then they beat South Africa, and then they got got by South Africa on penalties.
00:53:14
Speaker
Look, not every quarterfinal appearance is created equal, but hey, making the quarterfinal is the quarterfinal. Cape Verde are one of the shining examples of FIFA's strategy, right?
00:53:25
Speaker
FIFA, what they say, all of this money that we're taking, we then take and we reinvest it in football. so that places like Cape Verde can have a shot at making the World Cup. The Cape Verdean Federation has been very good with their money. They have invested in infrastructure. They have taken advantage of their diaspora players.
00:53:43
Speaker
Youth players in Cape Verde have options now to play and to make an impact on the game. They are a fun story. They're a great story. And I think they've been dealt a group where they can make a little bit of noise, even if we might have to wait till match day three.
00:54:00
Speaker
Yeah, they're a dangerous team, I think, because they match up well against Saudi Arabia. I struggle to see it working against Spain Uruguay, but there's a chance, I think,
00:54:11
Speaker
They are, even though the diaspora and the DNA of this team is very Portuguese and that is a, definitely stands out when you watch them in calf, they use the ball ah more than almost anybody, especially compared to kind of their, their West African counterparts. yeah um It's a, it's a very Portuguese techie style of football. Use the ball. Not, know, not quite as Spanish tiki taka, but they, you know, they're good athletes and they can ah use the ball, which is a good combo. Yeah.
00:54:40
Speaker
there's limitations on both, right? They're not great athletes and they're not like the best with the ball. um But it worked for them in calf qualifying against, um you know, an okay group. They were better than Cameroon and they run really hard.
00:54:55
Speaker
That is a good thing for them. And I think that will be their calling card that if they could steal a point against Uruguay, they just, they could run with them and make that game hard and say, look, we know you're going to run, but if we run with you,
00:55:07
Speaker
Maybe your striker can't finish. Maybe we just hang around. Maybe even we steal a 1-0 against you. And then specifically, you're looking at Saudi saudi Arabia. Like, yeah, I think Saudi Arabia, the the the name, the pedigree may be a little bit better on the ball.
00:55:23
Speaker
But there's some sneaky roster building happening in Cape Verde where there's some guys here that... Again, the pedigree isn't quite there, but I think you have to to to think about. Talk about the manager really quick.
00:55:34
Speaker
Go ahead. Yeah, Bubista, the manager, that he's the one who's doing that roster building. He's a great story, right? He played for Cape Verde in the 90s, born in Cape Verde, managed in Cape Verde, has been in charge of the national team since 2020. He is the guy that the Federation wanted to have in charge of this project. He understands the project. He's now seasoned. He's gotten this team to the World Cup.
00:55:52
Speaker
And amid the roster building that he's done, it's intriguing. Look, we're not talking about high-level players. He's not bringing in guys from the top divisions of a top-five league, but he has gone for Cape Verdean players who have been grown and played in Cape Verde and mixing in diaspora guys who, again, raise the level of this team enough so that competing at the World Cup is not a stretch.
00:56:17
Speaker
Right. He's kind of gotten a few MLS guys. He's snuck in a few guys from Portugal. is ah I mean, not a few. A lot of guys from Portugal. He snuck in some guys from who play in Turkey that have kind of come up through the Portugal ranks.
00:56:33
Speaker
ah He's also kind of got a little bit of Eastern Europe in ah Bucharest. little bit of Krasnodar. And then, you know, you even have a little bit of like Ligue 2. I don't know if you're saying that right. Yeah, you're bringing guys in where you can find them. And again, yeah they're looking though. And that's what's interesting. So let's talk about the team a little bit.
00:56:57
Speaker
Goalkeeper Vazinha has been their guy for them through qualifying. He's in the second league in Portugal. They sneakily added CJ Dos Santos, who was at Inter Miami, got a few starts last year. Now he's at San Diego. He's a backup. He's a wild card. I don't know what we're getting with him.
00:57:14
Speaker
Is an MLS bench warmer better than a... your season league two guy from Portugal. Yeah. The question that is only being asked on the world cup after dark podcast. Like, listen, I can even watch highlights of both guys. Like I can't, you can, you can goalkeep evaluation is so hard.
00:57:32
Speaker
This is what it is. At defense, Steven Marrera was at the Columbus Crew for a while. Part of their title-winning team is actually a very good ball-playing center back. Really solid. Logan Costa is at Villarreal. He's hurt right now, but he'd be a very good starting option. Then they kind of got ah a few other guys that can deputize. Dini is at in UAE. He was their their rock in qualifying.
00:57:56
Speaker
Again, held up against Cameroon. Solid a defender. They've got Sidney Lopez Cabral at Benfica. Doesn't play at Benfica. Not a lot of tape on him, but he's he's okay. And then Joel Paolo.
00:58:07
Speaker
There's a few of those, but he's at Stoy Bucharest, and he's a solid left back. um They also added Jorginho Suarez, who um is playing. I think he's in Eastern Europe somewhere.
00:58:21
Speaker
It's an okay room. It's an okay room. How do you compare a room like that with four guys from the Saudi domestic league? It's a completely different way. It's, it's interesting because it's a completely different way of team building. Right. And that's just because of population and because of footballing history and all that, that's, that's why they had to do it. but yeah, it's absolutely fascinating. ah Yeah. Jorginho Suarez admit at Montana, but that's in Bulgaria. So, yeah.
00:58:45
Speaker
yeah Montana in Bulgaria, right. yeah So Jamiro Montero has kind of been their talismanic best player in the past. He was an MLS stalwart at the the Quakes and the ah Union.
00:58:58
Speaker
um Then he went to ah the Netherlands, I think, to maybe get a slightly better... ah situation. um He's kind of hurt right now. I don't know if he's going to play. If he does, I think he elevates their entire creative profile and energy, but he's also a little bit older. So like he was kind of a super sub for them by the backstretch of qualifying. He kind of peaked in 2023.
00:59:22
Speaker
At the 10, they have Arcanio, who's at Vitoria in Portugal. He's a solid number 10. Their pivot is pretty so-so. Semedo and Kevin Pina. That's Ferenc in Portugal and Krasnodar.
00:59:35
Speaker
And then their their third best central midfielder DeRoy Duarte. Another okay depth piece. But they've they've added two sneaky names here, which again, you just got to give credit to Babista and the Federation. Jordan Mendez is in League Two. He's just chasing promotion. I watched some of him.
00:59:53
Speaker
He's a pretty solid two-way midfielder, can dribble. And then Ioni Santos is is kind of an electric 20-year-old at Rotterdam. He's got a bunch of starts in the Eredivis. This is a kind of a good piece for them.
01:00:06
Speaker
And getting those types of guys. Yeah. Getting those types of guys in it is huge because the two guys you just mentioned there in Mendes and Santos, 22 and 20. You're hoping that they can have an impact on this World Cup campaign, obviously.
01:00:20
Speaker
But they are young enough guys that you get them in the program that then you go and you keep going on as you go. Those are the key types of players. And that's what making the World Cup does for a team like Cape Verde. Those guys look and say, hey, I can play a World Cup now and maybe I can qualify for another one later.
01:00:34
Speaker
Will that all work for this World Cup in 2026? I don't know, but I kind of feel okay about the hands of movies to trying to pull those strings and put it all together. It's inspiring and it shows ambition. i don't know about I don't mean inspiring in like the grand scheme of like what a story. like I mean, for sure, if you believe in that, great. But like he's inspired the he's inspired the the players and the recruitment.
01:00:59
Speaker
It's a very good sign to get that in this year. like there's There's a clear belief. like yeah It's very clear that there's a plan of what they're trying to do and you can see it. And again, I don't know where that level is going to put out on the entire World Cup. There's absolutely a chance that Cape Verde the worst team at this World Cup. We can't discount that.
01:01:17
Speaker
But there's also a chance that they make a little bit of noise like they have in Africa recently.
Key Match: Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia
01:01:22
Speaker
Right. I think that is a very fun subplot. Up top, dial on the vermino. Who's going to be making it?
01:01:29
Speaker
He's been their striker. He's the guy that scored against Cameroon. He's a very fast striker. He can shoot pretty well. He doesn't do a whole lot else. But again, guy who runs hard, again, it's discount Darwin Nunez. Maybe he's better than Darwin Nunez, given what Darwin Nunez is doing. ah I mean, Darwin Nunez, like you said, has got 30 minutes in this year. Has he played since February?
01:01:51
Speaker
no no So yeah, the Roberto has. So I actually think he's a solid striker. And then Ryan Mendes has been their talisman. i think he's at this point, he's kind of just here to, to kind of be the captain vibes guy on the bench. I i don't expect him to make a difference.
01:02:06
Speaker
Another sneaky ad, uh, come on. Um, there's a, one of those vowels is, Kamois is what you're looking for in Portuguese. Kamois what you would say. Thank you. The Portuguese. Thank you. um He was in Norway. He was lighting it up. And then he took a move from Norway to Al Ali, who are a team familiar with from the Club World Cup, the best team in Egypt. A lot of Egypt players are there.
01:02:28
Speaker
I think that's a positive move for him. I can tell you that his Norway tape is incredible. And he was just shredding Norway defenders with athleticism and finishing.
01:02:39
Speaker
It is apparent from the tape that the Norway defenders are not good. um So like i I can't tell you like that he is going to start next to Livermento. I don't know if they can play two strikers. I think the theme with all these pieces is like clearly the recruitment is interesting here from Bobista, and like they're finding good players.
01:02:57
Speaker
These are all projects. yeah I don't know what happens when you throw like four projects into like a bunch of... like conference league level guys. Like, again, could be the worst team of the World Cup.
01:03:10
Speaker
Also, could be like fun and techie and takes it to Saudi Arabia. This is fascinating. This Cape Verde team is fascinating. Cape Verde Saudi Arabia is a game you have to watch. I'm not like bought in on them.
01:03:24
Speaker
I've drank the Kool-Aid on a lot of teams like this in the past. Just know, listen to this podcast. You've heard it. I don't think this will all work. Was that your African Kool-Aid? Yeah, yeah. I saw the Guinea hype train. The tutorial Guinea hype train...
01:03:40
Speaker
Back when, like I thought Curaรงao two cycles ago was was on the hype train. like I don't know with this team. I'm not sure it's all going to work out. But they're fun. They play hard. They have a good effort. And I do think there's something to enjoy to them that there won't be for Saudi Arabia.
01:03:59
Speaker
That is just vibes casting, but like the chaos apparent in the in the whole Federation and their kind of malaise in their last few years of play is real. There are some good vibes here.
01:04:11
Speaker
Do I like the kind of shut the dam off versus Spain and Uruguay? No. but like I don't like that part of it because I don't think they can really defend and bunker. They're going to have to like play with Spain, and that's a bad recipe.
01:04:26
Speaker
But... They can beat Saudi Arabia. I kind of like that bet. I kind of i kind of like that game. I'm not sure it's going to get them over the third place cut line, but it'll be close. Yeah, so as we shift into looking forward, not just for Cape Verde, but also in this group, we've touched on it a lot, but just to make it clear, this group, especially for Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, is so dependent on a how well they do comparatively against Uruguay and Spain, and B, what that then translates into in the third place table. Because if Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia show up for that match day three game and they're minus five and minus six,
01:05:07
Speaker
It's not going to be a great look in the third place table from what we know. That could change. We could get to that game and it's hey, three points is probably going to be enough regardless of what your goal differential is. So those are going to be two massive, massive questions for them.
01:05:20
Speaker
That game becomes absolutely intriguing if they manage to keep it close enough that, hey, winning by one or two might get us into the knockout stage. That becomes your game to watch, but we've already talked about Spain. That is also a game to watch. This group kind of feels like it might slow boil for the first two match days.
01:05:37
Speaker
Maybe one of those four games, we might not get a shocking result, but we could at least get an interesting game. But the third match day has potential here. Correct. that is Both of those games matter for the bracket.
01:05:50
Speaker
I hope Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are alive for a third-place spot. I'm sure they will be just because of ah the way everyone's kind of alive on the last match day, unless you're really, really done.
01:06:00
Speaker
um i think Cape Verde-Uruguay, that game could be interesting for a half or for 60 minutes if Cape Verde frustrates them. And again, Livermento might be able to steal something. Uruguay are kind of a...
01:06:15
Speaker
kind of a ah paper shredder versus Cape Verde is the the word I would use. But I think Cape Verde are going to play some fun football.
01:06:26
Speaker
that often does not get you very far. but football Might be five, two, and but like, Hey, we'll take it. Right. Like, like, like yeah sometime yeah where gets yeah see that than like the Saudi Arabia, like three, Oh, that could happen. Sure. Again, like we're punking Saturday, pre-punking Saturday, pre-hyping Cape Verde very well. We could get in here and it could be the opposite. Like Cape Verde could just be a drag and miserable and off the pace at Saturday. Arabia might find some magical gear. Like,
01:06:53
Speaker
We're just projecting. And certainly, Saudi Arabia, we have an idea. i don't think like it's really hard to project what this Cape Verde team is going to do. It is. And that's what the fun of doing these podcasts these podcasts is. ah The numbers to to qualify here, Amit, guess what? It bears out this being stratified, right? like The numbers for these teams to qualify is exactly what you think the numbers for these teams to qualify is.
01:07:17
Speaker
Yeah, Spain like 95, 98% actually. Uruguay also like 90, 95% to qualify. Saudi Arabia about 50% that they are one of the top eight third place teams.
01:07:31
Speaker
I think that's what the new model should say. Cape Verde more at like ah between two and three to one. ah so like that's putting you in the 20 to 30% range.
01:07:45
Speaker
ah Not great. I think there's some value in Cape Verde being better than Saudi Arabia, and you can get that bet at to finish third Cape Verde at plus 200 if you don't think they even they can qualify that they could beat Saudi Arabia in a one-off game.
01:08:00
Speaker
um There's some value there. They can finish third without qualifying, right? teams are going to do that. That could be the situation here. Yeah. Yeah, so you might find some value there, but you know maybe you shouldn't listen to anything that we've talked ourselves into on the podcast about these two teams.
Predictions and Betting Analysis
01:08:18
Speaker
I think you know the models have it at Spain-Uruguay is minus 160 to finish 1-2. I mean, that's like 60-70%, right?
01:08:28
Speaker
It's not quite 70%. I mean, what world is that not in? Is it the world where Uruguay beats Spain? But like... i you know you number one Again, this is not a betting podcast and negative value is generally not good. But like Spain-Uruguay 1-2, in a group of the most stratified groups, feels like pretty bang on here. So I i think this group will not be interesting in terms of the final table. But I think Saudi Arabia-Cape Verde could be one of the World Cup After Darks games of the tournament.
01:09:00
Speaker
Or they could just draw and both go out. We'll see.
Unique Insights and Patreon Promotion
01:09:03
Speaker
That's the fun thing. What I can promise you is that you're going to really struggle to find a World Cup podcast that just went over an hour for a group that many podcasts are simply going to say, Spain's good.
01:09:14
Speaker
Uruguay's okay. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are bad. That's what you come to the World Cup After Dark podcast for. That's what we are here to give you. We will be back with more preview stuff down the line. Again, patreon.com slash WCAD to support us $3 month.
01:09:28
Speaker
gets you access to subscriber-only content and also helps monetarily support us. But even if you don't want to do that, just tell your friends, listen podcast, click like, subscribe subscribe, all the fun buttons that you can. and it And I will be back with some more groups down the line.
01:09:41
Speaker
Take care.